I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
Are there any left?
A Tory Big Beast is any MP you haven't heard of but is now critical of the leadership. A Tory Grandee is an MP you have heard of and is now critical of the leadership.
A Senior Tory MP is any Tory MP.
Whereas A Tory MP is someone who is about to be suspended for excessive interest in tractors.
"First they came for the moat-dredgers. Then they came for the tractor-fanciers. Now they're coming for . . ."
The best named "Can I have your Vote, I have a moat?" candidate I know of was the Lib Dem April Pond. 2009. Norwich North by-election.
Iain Dale an expert on political pond life? Naturally!
Actually I have a soft spot for ID, who I've met and can testify is a gentleman as well as a polemnicist.
Which gives me chance to tout his very recent book "British General Election Campaigns: 1830 to 2019" consisting of 50 separate essays for each election by different authors (pendant pundit alert - same guy wrote up both 1910 elections).
I really wouldn't like to predict anything other than:
Labour will be largest Party.
Turnout is liable to be passable.
Thursdays weather is largely dry (showers in far North England and Scotland) but not excessively warm, so liable to encourage turnout.
We might have to do the whole thing again in a month if the remaining Postal Ballots didn't turn up today.
Do we actually have hard evidence that weather plays a massive role in GE turn-out? I can see it for council elections, but the big one? Does a bit of rain really put people off going 2 minutes down the road in their car to vote?
Not everyone has a car. Plenty of young folk don't. And the oldies will often have used postals.
There is much irrationality about local travel choices.
One of the most common Pfaffer-quips about riding a cycle is "But .. but .. but .. what about the RAIN in winter?"
Even something as blunt as "Don't you wear a coat when you walk the %^&*($ dog in November ?!! " often does not penetrate.
Quite. But the very presence of the quips is significant. It's also surprising how many young folk - or old for that matter - do not have decent waterproof coats or shoes, fo whatever fashion.
Edit: not my fault. I have worn out perhaps 5 Barbours. And we have had to insist that our niece buys some halfway practical shoes when she comes to visit us and gets taken for walks.
I have now backed Reform at all prices to get <13.99%.
My best result is 6-7.99%.
I have a bet on 0 seats at 10 (extremely thin market, have to feed these in). I think it's a value loser, but value nonetheless.
Essentially it's a bet on a polling issue (which seems deeply plausible given polling not great with reform - a delta of 1 point on 13 is twice the significance of 1 point on 26... I hope these terms are correct, well they're probably not cause I made them up)
Also I had to html encode the < in your quote so don't expect too many other replies unless this is a commonly known issue, cause the error message was totally unhelpful!
Ah, I tried to find that market but could not find it on any of the sites I can bet with. That said, most political markets were well hidden in the early dates and liable to be withdrawn or suspended if someone other than a confidante of Rishi's had more that a groat on.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
I want to see Farage defeated by under 50 votes after several recounts.
Tories now literally pitching their message directly at grandparents.
The only voter segment they have left.
My daughter's great grandmother (my grandmother but it feels more awesome to say it that way) has voted Reform. I'm not going to blame a 96 year old with an active life for anything. And they're still better than the Tories. Anyway with the boundary changes around here she's in a super safe Labour seat now, to be led by a gentleman who looks like an orange. I like him and will vote for him though, ngl.
What I still find bizarre is Mrs Dumbosaurus voting Conservative. Close to £30k we'll have spent on her getting citizenship. Most of that totally unnecessary and the Torys' fault.
Still think it's to do with my support of Hakainde Hichilema for Zambian president over Edgar Lungu. But I'm 100% right about that. #notsorry.
Just seen that the midlands constituency I grew up in, which was Tory held from its conception in 1950 until 1997, had a conservative vote of c. 12% in 2019. Labour vote 68%.
There has been huge demographic change, but this does not wholly explain it.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
Am wondering if "Recount in Clacton" will ever take the place of "Moon over Miami"?
This is quite a poor Euros. A lot of boring low scoring games, and a lack of superstar skills
All the best players seem subdued. Knackered?
The first few games weren't bad. Been downhill since. At least England have the consolation that it's not just them that have been boring and very disappointing.
There a levels...France / Belgium were poor, but were miles better than England i.e. they actually had some shots at the goal thing.
Although England scored two good goals and Belgium scored zero and France only an own goal. I think I preferred Jude’s Late Drama.
Might not be able to rely on the Ben Stokes of England football team in the next match if UEFA decide his crotch grab was unsporting behaviour.
A question we haven't discussed much recently. This is the first general election since voter ID came in. So we know little or nothing about the effects. Only the keen vote at other elections.
3 Questions: Will a significant number of older mainly working class voters without passports and things simply stay away rather than be embarrassed by the system which might decline their bingo club membership card (I wouldn't blame them).
Will many younger voters (and middle aged non passport, non driving licence urban types?) stay away/be refused for the same thing?
Will a serious number of people not know about it.
I wasn’t even asked for ID in the locals. I suspect many polling clerks will accept a polling card. But we’ll see.
I sort of hope so too, but then you think of the nice folks at the polling station - and they are - and then some abomination of a jobsworth will go an make trouble for them if they turn a blind eye to a little old lady who has forgotten her bus pass and wants to vote for that nice Mr Whitelaw (of blessed memory in Penrith and Border) or an 18 year old who has been shafted by the discrimination in the ID rules. The perils of modernity.
What exactly could they do to them? They are all volunteers aren’t they? Refuse them any more custard creams?
they get circa £200 so not volunteers as such
We talked about this at the locals, which I think were the cushy one.
They get something like £18-20 an hour for manning the polling station iirc.
The more sensible Dems desperately need half a dozen of these polls so they cannot ignore the danger, and they act to replace Biden
Because a clearly senile Biden is going to LOSE this election
I know this is bloody obvious, but it seems they still don’t quite get it
“The more sensible Dems” pretty well by definition isn’t enough.
Unless Biden steps aside voluntarily, or can be persuaded/pressured to do so, it requires a majority of delegates to the convention to decide to pick someone else. And they were picked for the reliability of their votes in favour of Biden.
If enough poor polls come in then Obama, Schummer and co can head to WH to have a little chat I think.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
I want to see Farage defeated by under 50 votes after several recounts.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
I want to see Farage defeated by under 50 votes after several recounts.
I have now backed Reform at all prices to get <13.99%.
My best result is 6-7.99%.
I have a bet on 0 seats at 10 (extremely thin market, have to feed these in). I think it's a value loser, but value nonetheless.
Essentially it's a bet on a polling issue (which seems deeply plausible given polling not great with reform - a delta of 1 point on 13 is twice the significance of 1 point on 26... I hope these terms are correct, well they're probably not cause I made them up)
Also I had to html encode the < in your quote so don't expect too many other replies unless this is a commonly known issue, cause the error message was totally unhelpful!
Ah, I tried to find that market but could not find it on any of the sites I can bet with. That said, most political markets were well hidden in the early dates and liable to be withdrawn or suspended if someone other than a confidante of Rishi's had more that a groat on.
Yeah, it's Betfair I'm doing it (like you I seem to have a problem with being banned by bookies, which is hilarious considering I only do politics + novelty stuff - happily been allowed back to Skybet this year though). You can't lump on but you can put on reasonable amounts for a fairly obscure (and what imo should be 3-4 shot) 10 political bet.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
Well quite. MrEd/MisterBedfordshire is weirdo Trumpian trollcaster who knows very little about psephology. Hence his now legendary ‘tip’ for Trump to carry VA in Potus 2020, which Trump lost by 11 points.
I'm not Mr Ed. I stopped posting in 2016 until recently
I also don't go round insulting other posters.
Insulting other posters including me because you disagree with their posts says more about you than you intended to reveal.
Happy to take you word for it but your posts are uncannily similar to his and then there's the MrEd/MisterBedfordshire name similarity.
Still remember enjoying a good few beers with Mr Ed at the last PB gathering, shame he got himself banned.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
Well quite. MrEd/MisterBedfordshire is weirdo Trumpian trollcaster who knows very little about psephology. Hence his now legendary ‘tip’ for Trump to carry VA in Potus 2020, which Trump lost by 11 points.
I'm not Mr Ed. I stopped posting in 2016 until recently
I also don't go round insulting other posters.
Insulting other posters including me because you disagree with their posts says more about you than you intended to reveal.
Happy to take you word for it but your posts are uncannily similar to his and then there's the MrEd/MisterBedfordshire name similarity.
Still remember enjoying a good few beers with Mr Ed at the last PB gathering, shame he got himself banned.
The more sensible Dems desperately need half a dozen of these polls so they cannot ignore the danger, and they act to replace Biden
Because a clearly senile Biden is going to LOSE this election
I know this is bloody obvious, but it seems they still don’t quite get it
“The more sensible Dems” pretty well by definition isn’t enough.
Unless Biden steps aside voluntarily, or can be persuaded/pressured to do so, it requires a majority of delegates to the convention to decide to pick someone else. And they were picked for the reliability of their votes in favour of Biden.
Think you overstate situation re: Biden national convention delegates. While his campaign does have rights re: his pledged delegates, the degree of control is hardly a grip of iron. Ditto sanctions under state law (zero under federal) for delegates violating pledges to vote for candidates at conventions.
I think you're right. From what I'm seeing from Democrats right now, a huge majority want Biden gone already. There are a few die-hards who are trying to push the 'A dead Biden is better than a live Trump' but even though this is true, the push back I'm seeing just swamps it. I talked to people at my local over the weekend and there's just open anger about what has happened. Biden wasn't really wanted before last week but everyone went along with it.
The Obama/Schumer delegation is probably how this ends. It has to be people who can't risk being Brutus, so you won't be seeing any potential candidate sticking their neck out. After years of Democrats taunting Republicans about being 'profiles of courage' in putting their careers ahead of the country, the anger from the base is also being directed at Newsome and co for doing the exact same thing now.
But maybe a major figure will go public, if they are hearing the same thing as I am. It's one thing to go against Trump and have the Republican base summarily end your career (see Joe Heck for one). But if you're seen as the person who actually acted for the Democrat base now and called for Biden to quit, there could be rewards.
Have the pollsters given up? Can't blame them really when we all know what the result will be.
What if the polling companies have s*** the bed?
There are surprisingly wide variations considering polling day is almost within touching distance, although all predict a more than comfortable Labour win.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
Snap*.
*This may not reflect my competition entries. I was misquoted.
@Cicero those look like sensible seat numbers to me.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
Well quite. MrEd/MisterBedfordshire is weirdo Trumpian trollcaster who knows very little about psephology. Hence his now legendary ‘tip’ for Trump to carry VA in Potus 2020, which Trump lost by 11 points.
I'm not Mr Ed. I stopped posting in 2016 until recently
I also don't go round insulting other posters.
Insulting other posters including me because you disagree with their posts says more about you than you intended to reveal.
Happy to take you word for it but your posts are uncannily similar to his and then there's the MrEd/MisterBedfordshire name similarity.
Still remember enjoying a good few beers with Mr Ed at the last PB gathering, shame he got himself banned.
Or you could just leave him alone, and let him post under whatever name he pleases. What is it to you?
I'm not outing him, @Leon. He's already said it (hence the term "claims"). He's not secret about it.
[EDIT: The phrase "I assume the mods can confirm/deny" referred to the fact that @MrEd and @MrBedfordshire are not the same person. Is that what tripped you up?]
If you think the football is boring trying having to read a dozen messages from the same pub bore talking about how boring the boring football is.
JUST TURN IT OFF YOU FUCKING WEIRDO
Absolutely terrible point. I find soccer as boring as fuck and ignore it, and I would indeed be a weirdo to be going on about it. A fan who was expecting food football and is getting shit can legitimately complain though
The more sensible Dems desperately need half a dozen of these polls so they cannot ignore the danger, and they act to replace Biden
Because a clearly senile Biden is going to LOSE this election
I know this is bloody obvious, but it seems they still don’t quite get it
“The more sensible Dems” pretty well by definition isn’t enough.
Unless Biden steps aside voluntarily, or can be persuaded/pressured to do so, it requires a majority of delegates to the convention to decide to pick someone else. And they were picked for the reliability of their votes in favour of Biden.
If enough poor polls come in then Obama, Schummer and co can head to WH to have a little chat I think.
There was more than enough reason to replace Biden last Friday, but after today it is paramount that Trump is defeated and that means no matter how difficult it is the Democrats must appoint the most viable candidate to beat Trump.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
Are there any left?
A Tory Big Beast is any MP you haven't heard of but is now critical of the leadership. A Tory Grandee is an MP you have heard of and is now critical of the leadership.
A Senior Tory MP is any Tory MP.
I particularly like 'Senior Backbench MP', which I think is code for 'old fossil who never got anywhere' (diligent constituency MPs who never cared for the limelight don't get the 'senior' label).
Oh, they all get the "senior" label when it matters. "Tory MP gets penis trapped in letterbox" isn't news. "Senior Tory MP gets penis trapped in letterbox" is news. First rule of journalism.
"Tory MP gets senior penis trapped in letterbox" "Tory MP gets penis trapped in senior letterbox"
Some variants there, if any MP wants to oblige the tabloids.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
Snap*.
*This may not reflect my competition entries. I was misquoted.
@Cicero those look like sensible seat numbers to me.
Probably LAB 36% CON 28% seats in line with what @Cicero says
The more sensible Dems desperately need half a dozen of these polls so they cannot ignore the danger, and they act to replace Biden
Because a clearly senile Biden is going to LOSE this election
I know this is bloody obvious, but it seems they still don’t quite get it
“The more sensible Dems” pretty well by definition isn’t enough.
Unless Biden steps aside voluntarily, or can be persuaded/pressured to do so, it requires a majority of delegates to the convention to decide to pick someone else. And they were picked for the reliability of their votes in favour of Biden.
If enough poor polls come in then Obama, Schummer and co can head to WH to have a little chat I think.
Yes, that’s the persuasion route.
Democrats' problem is not getting Biden to stand aside but finding a replacement. Kamala Harris is in pole position but none of the anti-Bidens wants her, so the party risks descent into civil war to pick someone who might easily poll worse than Biden.
Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of planning to be a “part-time prime minister” after suggesting he would want to finish work at 6pm on Fridays.
The Labour leader said that on the last working day of the week he does “not do a work-related thing after 6pm pretty well come what may”, saying he wanted to protect time spent with his family.
He added that he planned to maintain the habit if his party was to be elected on Thursday.
Note to the world, you can't have anything happen on Friday evenings.
While I think Starmer's general point is right, just as Cameron had a balance. Like his never use private healthcare, it does rather concern me that you have such hard and fast rules to your life.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
I want to see Farage defeated by under 50 votes after several recounts.
I'd like the decisive factor to be "ambiguous" voting cards that voted for him with a swastika in the box next to his name.
Honestly I don't care which way the result is. So long as that's the decisive factor.
The judge in my latest case today decided we had to start again. Deeply frustrating because the case will now run to the end of the week and beyond making a late election night impossible. I will go home on Friday and vote at 7 on Thursday but it will be an early night for me 😞
You can "restart" cases that quickly in Scotland? Or is it that you're now expeceted in the office instead?
(This might be a completely impossible question to answer in your circumstances due to doxxing n that, in which case please instead answer by a link to an interesting youtube video)
The judge in my latest case today decided we had to start again. Deeply frustrating because the case will now run to the end of the week and beyond making a late election night impossible. I will go home on Friday and vote at 7 on Thursday but it will be an early night for me 😞
You can "restart" cases that quickly in Scotland? Or is it that you're now expeceted in the office instead?
(This might be a completely impossible question to answer in your circumstances due to doxxing n that, in which case please instead answer by a link to an interesting youtube video)
Not always but we have done it this time. Generally, if something goes awry we just start again with a new jury. Cases that are adjourned have to wait a long time.
Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of planning to be a “part-time prime minister” after suggesting he would want to finish work at 6pm on Fridays.
The Labour leader said that on the last working day of the week he does “not do a work-related thing after 6pm pretty well come what may”, saying he wanted to protect time spent with his family.
He added that he planned to maintain the habit if his party was to be elected on Thursday.
Note to the world, you can't have anything happen on Friday evenings.
While I think Starmer's general point is right, just as Cameron had a balance. Like his never use private healthcare, it does rather concern me that you have such hard and fast rules to your life.
Obviously if there was an international incident he would work, but his wife is Jewish and Friday Night Dinner is very important to her. He’s said it several times before.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of planning to be a “part-time prime minister” after suggesting he would want to finish work at 6pm on Fridays.
The Labour leader said that on the last working day of the week he does “not do a work-related thing after 6pm pretty well come what may”, saying he wanted to protect time spent with his family.
He added that he planned to maintain the habit if his party was to be elected on Thursday.
Note to the world, you can't have anything happen on Friday evenings.
While I think Starmer's general point is right, just as Cameron had a balance. Like his never use private healthcare, it does rather concern me that you have such hard and fast rules to your life.
I think you can set internal guidelines for yourself. That is very important in a demanding job.
I’m not sure as PM it’s the smartest thing to announce them.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
Are there any left?
A Tory Big Beast is any MP you haven't heard of but is now critical of the leadership. A Tory Grandee is an MP you have heard of and is now critical of the leadership.
A Senior Tory MP is any Tory MP.
I particularly like 'Senior Backbench MP', which I think is code for 'old fossil who never got anywhere' (diligent constituency MPs who never cared for the limelight don't get the 'senior' label).
Oh, they all get the "senior" label when it matters. "Tory MP gets penis trapped in letterbox" isn't news. "Senior Tory MP gets penis trapped in letterbox" is news. First rule of journalism.
"Tory MP gets senior penis trapped in letterbox" "Tory MP gets penis trapped in senior letterbox"
Some variants there, if any MP wants to oblige the tabloids.
The most awful thing I ever did (imo - legally speaking and according to others I certainly did far worse, but in my eyes this was it) as a "technical" adult was piss through a random person's letterbox as a student.
My entire life has been atoning for this act of total cuntishness. And it's also why I believe in redemption and think the SNP may even have the right approach for yoof sentencing.
A former student of a friend of mine at Fen Poly pissed through the letterbox of a curry house he thought had wronged him: two days in hospital.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Shit, I crossed over the 50k line just 3 months ago!
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Silly sausage. The Tories brought is the highest taxes ever.
Actually, and on topic, I’ve been looking at the subsidiary data in the latest polls - especially in Scotland - and there is a huge question to be raised, which most people seem to be ignoring
Namely, why is the football so BORING?
Even if you accept that the Reform surge is real and the SNP slump likewise, you're still left with that dilemma
The more sensible Dems desperately need half a dozen of these polls so they cannot ignore the danger, and they act to replace Biden
Because a clearly senile Biden is going to LOSE this election
I know this is bloody obvious, but it seems they still don’t quite get it
“The more sensible Dems” pretty well by definition isn’t enough.
Unless Biden steps aside voluntarily, or can be persuaded/pressured to do so, it requires a majority of delegates to the convention to decide to pick someone else. And they were picked for the reliability of their votes in favour of Biden.
If enough poor polls come in then Obama, Schummer and co can head to WH to have a little chat I think.
Yes, that’s the persuasion route.
Democrats' problem is not getting Biden to stand aside but finding a replacement. Kamala Harris is in pole position but none of the anti-Bidens wants her, so the party risks descent into civil war to pick someone who might easily poll worse than Biden.
Quite so. It isn't solely Biden's stubbornness that took them here, though that played a big part.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Silly sausage. The Tories brought is the highest taxes ever.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Shit, I crossed over the 50k line just 3 months ago!
If fiscal drag continues, I wonder what percentage of people will be higher rate taxpayers by the end of the next parliament.
Democratic National Committee is considering formally nominating Biden as early as mid-July to ensure that the president is on November ballots, while helping to stamp out intra-party chatter of replacing him after his poor debate performance, @MarioDParker and @gregorykorte report. A potential date for Biden’s nomination is July 21, when the Dem convention’s credentials committee meets virtually. The panel is meeting to finalize procedures before the convention in Chicago starts Aug. 19. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The more sensible Dems desperately need half a dozen of these polls so they cannot ignore the danger, and they act to replace Biden
Because a clearly senile Biden is going to LOSE this election
I know this is bloody obvious, but it seems they still don’t quite get it
“The more sensible Dems” pretty well by definition isn’t enough.
Unless Biden steps aside voluntarily, or can be persuaded/pressured to do so, it requires a majority of delegates to the convention to decide to pick someone else. And they were picked for the reliability of their votes in favour of Biden.
If enough poor polls come in then Obama, Schummer and co can head to WH to have a little chat I think.
Yes, that’s the persuasion route.
Democrats' problem is not getting Biden to stand aside but finding a replacement. Kamala Harris is in pole position but none of the anti-Bidens wants her, so the party risks descent into civil war to pick someone who might easily poll worse than Biden.
I disagree. Picking the replacement might be hard - though I think it would most likely be Harris, and she’s on the ballot now. But getting Biden to give up is a far less predictable affair.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Silly sausage. The Tories brought is the highest taxes ever.
Interestingly Paul Johnson of the IFS explained this is actually a bit of an overly simplified categorisation. Those on average wages, their direct taxation is lowest for 50 years. Its the very rich and large corporations who have been absolutely hammered under the Tories.
He didn't actually believe this was true himself (Hunt claimed it in a speech) and he went and checked and he said its true.
Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of planning to be a “part-time prime minister” after suggesting he would want to finish work at 6pm on Fridays.
The Labour leader said that on the last working day of the week he does “not do a work-related thing after 6pm pretty well come what may”, saying he wanted to protect time spent with his family.
He added that he planned to maintain the habit if his party was to be elected on Thursday.
Note to the world, you can't have anything happen on Friday evenings.
While I think Starmer's general point is right, just as Cameron had a balance. Like his never use private healthcare, it does rather concern me that you have such hard and fast rules to your life.
Obviously if there was an international incident he would work, but his wife is Jewish and Friday Night Dinner is very important to her. He’s said it several times before.
Well, I liked the show too, but he can watch it on demand.
Is there any psephological reason to think the exit poll will be less reliable this time, due to Reform or any other factor?
I think with so many 3-4 way contests, and a likelihood of lots of close results it could be a bit less reliable than last time. But these things are designed to level out the error.
Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of planning to be a “part-time prime minister” after suggesting he would want to finish work at 6pm on Fridays.
The Labour leader said that on the last working day of the week he does “not do a work-related thing after 6pm pretty well come what may”, saying he wanted to protect time spent with his family.
He added that he planned to maintain the habit if his party was to be elected on Thursday.
Note to the world, you can't have anything happen on Friday evenings.
While I think Starmer's general point is right, just as Cameron had a balance. Like his never use private healthcare, it does rather concern me that you have such hard and fast rules to your life.
I think you can set internal guidelines for yourself. That is very important in a demanding job.
I’m not sure as PM it’s the smartest thing to announce them.
Actually, and on topic, I’ve been looking at the subsidiary data in the latest polls - especially in Scotland - and there is a huge question to be raised, which most people seem to be ignoring
Namely, why is the football so BORING?
Even if you accept that the Reform surge is real and the SNP slump likewise, you're still left with that dilemma
Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of planning to be a “part-time prime minister” after suggesting he would want to finish work at 6pm on Fridays.
The Labour leader said that on the last working day of the week he does “not do a work-related thing after 6pm pretty well come what may”, saying he wanted to protect time spent with his family.
He added that he planned to maintain the habit if his party was to be elected on Thursday.
Note to the world, you can't have anything happen on Friday evenings.
While I think Starmer's general point is right, just as Cameron had a balance. Like his never use private healthcare, it does rather concern me that you have such hard and fast rules to your life.
Obviously if there was an international incident he would work, but his wife is Jewish and Friday Night Dinner is very important to her. He’s said it several times before.
Yes I think it's fair enough.
There's different types of urgent work. Advisors may consider preparation for a Sunday morning interview important. Or for a conference speech. Or dealing with some minister who has got into trouble.
All of those things can either be prepared at other times, or 24 hour news wait for the PM to respond in the morning.
Urgent international incidents, obviously, be an exception he would make.
The Telegraph appealing to its 'young people are lazy' demographic viewpoint. Which given Starmer is over 60 tells you everything you need to know about it's demographic.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
Well quite. MrEd/MisterBedfordshire is weirdo Trumpian trollcaster who knows very little about psephology. Hence his now legendary ‘tip’ for Trump to carry VA in Potus 2020, which Trump lost by 11 points.
I'm not Mr Ed. I stopped posting in 2016 until recently
I also don't go round insulting other posters.
Insulting other posters including me because you disagree with their posts says more about you than you intended to reveal.
Happy to take you word for it but your posts are uncannily similar to his and then there's the MrEd/MisterBedfordshire name similarity.
Still remember enjoying a good few beers with Mr Ed at the last PB gathering, shame he got himself banned.
@mrbedfordshire didn't work and has zilch posts because google (gmail) blocked @rcs1000 email message in response to registration to verify the email address because it came from Vanilla not @rcs1000 so googles spoofing klaxons went off (@paul.... had similar problems after the interregnum since 2016)
So @misterbedfordshire came into existence via a non gmail email which didn't block the please verify email address message.
If you are registered here with a gmail address and you need vanilla to send a message to it for any reason (like you forgot your password) you is stuffed.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Silly sausage. The Tories brought is the highest taxes ever.
Interestingly Paul Johnson of the IFS explained this is actually a bit of an overly simplified categorisation. Those on average wages, their direct taxation is lowest for 50 years. Its the very rich and large corporations who have been absolutely hammered under the Tories.
He didn't actually believe this was true himself (Hunt claimed it in a speech) and he went and checked and he said its true.
They promise lower taxes and then do something radically different. That’s their problem. If they get in they’ll truss it up again.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Is it possible it's going to go NASTY for LAB and they will be closed down to 310 seats on 32%?
Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of planning to be a “part-time prime minister” after suggesting he would want to finish work at 6pm on Fridays.
The Labour leader said that on the last working day of the week he does “not do a work-related thing after 6pm pretty well come what may”, saying he wanted to protect time spent with his family.
He added that he planned to maintain the habit if his party was to be elected on Thursday.
Note to the world, you can't have anything happen on Friday evenings.
While I think Starmer's general point is right, just as Cameron had a balance. Like his never use private healthcare, it does rather concern me that you have such hard and fast rules to your life.
Obviously if there was an international incident he would work, but his wife is Jewish and Friday Night Dinner is very important to her. He’s said it several times before.
Well, I liked the show too, but he can watch it on demand.
KEIR ! stop phoning that Joe Biden ,FND is on TELE
The weird thing about the US Justices and Trumpers is they are relying on their opponents not being as bad as they say they are - Trump claims he was well within his rights as President to try to interfere in elections run by the states, and to try to get state houses to not certify results or even ignore them completely (in Pennsyvania they wanted millions tossed out on the basis of very minor allegations of impropriety), and the Court takes such a wide interpretation of such matters, that Biden and the Dems have a green light to reject election outcomes they do not like just as Trump did.
So they are relying, in a situation where the GOP legitimately win, that the Democrats will not abuse their positions as Trump did, even though legally Biden himself could do so without fear.
The Supreme Court judges are a step ahead of you. They leave open what is private (and subject to the law) and what is due to Trump's office (and above the law). This has two partisan benefits from their perspective. It buys time for Trump to get elected while they work what is official and what is private. It allows them also to determine as private anything Biden, or other Democrat, does that they don't like.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Silly sausage. The Tories brought is the highest taxes ever.
Interestingly Paul Johnson of the IFS explained this is actually a bit of an overly simplified categorisation. Those on average wages, their direct taxation is lowest for 50 years. Its the very rich and large corporations who have been absolutely hammered under the Tories.
He didn't actually believe this was true himself (Hunt claimed it in a speech) and he went and checked and he said its true.
They promise lower taxes and then do something radically different. That’s their problem. If they get in they’ll truss it up again.
Conservatives favour generally lower taxes; Labour generally higher. The multi-decade trend has been towards a larger tax take. Voters are voting for relatives no absolutes.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Silly sausage. The Tories brought is the highest taxes ever.
Interestingly Paul Johnson of the IFS explained this is actually a bit of an overly simplified categorisation. Those on average wages, their direct taxation is lowest for 50 years. Its the very rich and large corporations who have been absolutely hammered under the Tories.
He didn't actually believe this was true himself (Hunt claimed it in a speech) and he went and checked and he said its true.
They promise lower taxes and then do something radically different. That’s their problem. If they get in they’ll truss it up again.
Well they aren't going to, so its irrelevant. Just thought it was interesting factoid that the Tories are so piss poor at campaigning that they don't even use that as some sort of positive of their time in power. If you asked 100 people, 100 would say the Tories taxed the poor and middle classes and let the rich off too easy, that is the narrative, while Paul Johnson said this just isn't true.
Now mortgage rates / rents / energy bills / food inflation, now that's a different kettle of fish.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Reform aren't planning any of that. They're all about immigration.
Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of planning to be a “part-time prime minister” after suggesting he would want to finish work at 6pm on Fridays.
The Labour leader said that on the last working day of the week he does “not do a work-related thing after 6pm pretty well come what may”, saying he wanted to protect time spent with his family.
He added that he planned to maintain the habit if his party was to be elected on Thursday.
Note to the world, you can't have anything happen on Friday evenings.
While I think Starmer's general point is right, just as Cameron had a balance. Like his never use private healthcare, it does rather concern me that you have such hard and fast rules to your life.
Obviously if there was an international incident he would work, but his wife is Jewish and Friday Night Dinner is very important to her. He’s said it several times before.
I believe the Sabbath starts when the third star is visible on Friday evening.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Is it possible it's going to go NASTY for LAB and they will be closed down to 310 seats on 32%?
Nothing is impossible.
But, that'd be like the biggest polling failure in human history.
Comments
Actually I have a soft spot for ID, who I've met and can testify is a gentleman as well as a polemnicist.
Which gives me chance to tout his very recent book "British General Election Campaigns: 1830 to 2019" consisting of 50 separate essays for each election by different authors (pendant pundit alert - same guy wrote up both 1910 elections).
Am really enjoying it, you might also.
Edit: not my fault. I have worn out perhaps 5 Barbours. And we have had to insist that our niece buys some halfway practical shoes when she comes to visit us and gets taken for walks.
E2A I see now Betfair offers it.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.229292603
What I still find bizarre is Mrs Dumbosaurus voting Conservative. Close to £30k we'll have spent on her getting citizenship. Most of that totally unnecessary and the Torys' fault.
Still think it's to do with my support of Hakainde Hichilema for Zambian president over Edgar Lungu. But I'm 100% right about that. #notsorry.
There has been huge demographic change, but this does not wholly explain it.
But some great value backs eg Herne Bay & Epping Forest the value has already gone.
Backing Rishi, Suella, Liz all to hold.
Gut feel Con will surprise on upside, I think at least 120-130.
But always ready to be proved wrong ofc
Labour set for lowest vote share for incoming majority government... ever?
Certainly since Oct 74 I think.
By no means impossible could be a single term govt.
The constituencies I want to bet on aren’t quoted except for SW Norfolk, for which Ind Bagge isn’t included in the market. Amateur hour.
They get something like £18-20 an hour for manning the polling station iirc.
Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in September 2018:
“Under the Constitution, the president is not above the law. No one is above the law…The president remains subject to the law.”
https://x.com/AccountableGOP/status/1807835389865951253
Lying fucker.
No, wait, now we’re in the 98th minute and it’s STILL boring
Wait, fuck - no, got that wrong - 99th minute. Yes, 99th minute - and guess what?
BORING
You missed out 'creepy.'
The Obama/Schumer delegation is probably how this ends. It has to be people who can't risk being Brutus, so you won't be seeing any potential candidate sticking their neck out. After years of Democrats taunting Republicans about being 'profiles of courage' in putting their careers ahead of the country, the anger from the base is also being directed at Newsome and co for doing the exact same thing now.
But maybe a major figure will go public, if they are hearing the same thing as I am. It's one thing to go against Trump and have the Republican base summarily end your career (see Joe Heck for one). But if you're seen as the person who actually acted for the Democrat base now and called for Biden to quit, there could be rewards.
Ronaldo misses the pen! Ronaldo!
[EDIT: The phrase "I assume the mods can confirm/deny" referred to the fact that @MrEd and @MrBedfordshire are not the same person. Is that what tripped you up?]
Justice done.
Livened it up, mind.
The Labour leader said that on the last working day of the week he does “not do a work-related thing after 6pm pretty well come what may”, saying he wanted to protect time spent with his family.
He added that he planned to maintain the habit if his party was to be elected on Thursday.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/01/starmer-suggests-he-wont-work-past-6pm-on-fridays/
Note to the world, you can't have anything happen on Friday evenings.
While I think Starmer's general point is right, just as Cameron had a balance. Like his never use private healthcare, it does rather concern me that you have such hard and fast rules to your life.
Honestly I don't care which way the result is. So long as that's the decisive factor.
I watch the England matches, but not many others.
Happy Canada Day!
Bring home the country we love
https://nitter.poast.org/PierrePoilievre/status/1807751254858445104#m
Is that a more palatable version of 'Make Canada Great Again'? I like it.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
I’m not sure as PM it’s the smartest thing to announce them.
Namely, why is the football so BORING?
Even if you accept that the Reform surge is real and the SNP slump likewise, you're still left with that dilemma
THE FOOTBALL. IT’S SO BORING
WHY?
WHAT’S WITH ALL THIS BORING FOOTBALL GOING ON?
Picking the replacement might be hard - though I think it would most likely be Harris, and she’s on the ballot now. But getting Biden to give up is a far less predictable affair.
He didn't actually believe this was true himself (Hunt claimed it in a speech) and he went and checked and he said its true.
But the SUBSAMPLE KLAXON is required.
There's different types of urgent work. Advisors may consider preparation for a Sunday morning interview important. Or for a conference speech. Or dealing with some minister who has got into trouble.
All of those things can either be prepared at other times, or 24 hour news wait for the PM to respond in the morning.
Urgent international incidents, obviously, be an exception he would make.
The Telegraph appealing to its 'young people are lazy' demographic viewpoint. Which given Starmer is over 60 tells you everything you need to know about it's demographic.
@mrbedfordshire didn't work and has zilch posts because google (gmail) blocked @rcs1000 email message in response to registration to verify the email address because it came from Vanilla not @rcs1000 so googles spoofing klaxons went off (@paul.... had similar problems after the interregnum since 2016)
So @misterbedfordshire came into existence via a non gmail email which didn't block the please verify email address message.
If you are registered here with a gmail address and you need vanilla to send a message to it for any reason (like you forgot your password) you is stuffed.
Ain't life grand.
gabyhinsliff
@gabyhinsliff
·
4m
'Vote for us, we've basically burned our armed forces to the ground' is a... bold get out the vote strategy
Now mortgage rates / rents / energy bills / food inflation, now that's a different kettle of fish.
But, that'd be like the biggest polling failure in human history.
Labour will win.