Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Silly sausage. The Tories brought is the highest taxes ever.
Interestingly Paul Johnson of the IFS explained this is actually a bit of an overly simplified categorisation. Those on average wages, their direct taxation is lowest for 50 years. Its the very rich and large corporations who have been absolutely hammered under the Tories.
He didn't actually believe this was true himself (Hunt claimed it in a speech) and he went and checked and he said its true.
If people paid only direct taxes, that might be an interesting point from Hunt and the IFS but they don't so it isn't.
Is there any psephological reason to think the exit poll will be less reliable this time, due to Reform or any other factor?
I think with so many 3-4 way contests, and a likelihood of lots of close results it could be a bit less reliable than last time. But these things are designed to level out the error.
Don't forget they underestimated the Tories by 15 seats in 2015, saying they'd get 316 seats when in fact they got 331, which made the difference between being short by 10 and a majority of 12.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Silly sausage. The Tories brought is the highest taxes ever.
Interestingly Paul Johnson of the IFS explained this is actually a bit of an overly simplified categorisation. Those on average wages, their direct taxation is lowest for 50 years. Its the very rich and large corporations who have been absolutely hammered under the Tories.
He didn't actually believe this was true himself (Hunt claimed it in a speech) and he went and checked and he said its true.
If people paid only direct taxes, that might be an interesting point from Hunt and the IFS but they don't so it isn't.
Paul Johnson thought it was, he brought it up in an interview.
Chief Justice John Roberts at his confirmation hearing: “No one is above the law under our system and that includes the president. The president is fully bound by the law.” (Sept. 2005) https://x.com/AccountableGOP/status/1807882444663587082
The weird thing about the US Justices and Trumpers is they are relying on their opponents not being as bad as they say they are - Trump claims he was well within his rights as President to try to interfere in elections run by the states, and to try to get state houses to not certify results or even ignore them completely (in Pennsyvania they wanted millions tossed out on the basis of very minor allegations of impropriety), and the Court takes such a wide interpretation of such matters, that Biden and the Dems have a green light to reject election outcomes they do not like just as Trump did.
So they are relying, in a situation where the GOP legitimately win, that the Democrats will not abuse their positions as Trump did, even though legally Biden himself could do so without fear.
The Supreme Court judges are a step ahead of you. They leave open what is private (and subject to the law) and what is due to Trump's office (and above the law). This has two partisan benefits from their perspective. It buys time for Trump to get elected while they work what is official and what is private. It allows them also to determine as private anything Biden, or other Democrat, does that they don't like.
Unfortunately, they are not idiots. They are much too effective at advancing their aims.
What was the last poll reported that has not particularly-adjusted figures in the headline? Seeing some *interesting* trends here at Survation HQ in current fieldwork
Workers Party candidate in Sutton Coldfield has had to suspend his campaigning after his canvassers were attacked by men with baseball bats and machetes leaving some, including his son, in hospital
Didn't Zia Yusuf give them like £400-500k. Richard Tice is loaded. Also, remember they had that Holly Valance fund raiser a couple of weeks ago, that I think raised a lot of money (her husband is a billionaire and I don't think has given to the Tories this time).
Chief Justice John Roberts at his confirmation hearing: “No one is above the law under our system and that includes the president. The president is fully bound by the law.” (Sept. 2005) https://x.com/AccountableGOP/status/1807882444663587082
Deeply, profoundly, dishonest scum. The damage they have done is incalculable.
What was the last poll reported that has not particularly-adjusted figures in the headline? Seeing some *interesting* trends here at Survation HQ in current fieldwork
As phrased I think that's tory voters coming back right? From experience of his previous poll ramping he'd be calling them explosive, seismic, cataclysmic if the other way. Something reasonably apocalyptic.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Reform aren't planning any of that. They're all about immigration.
They have some insane spending plans. They plan to have zero net immigration.
Reform would crash the economy if elected. Luckily, they will be nowhere near the levers of power.
What was the last poll reported that has not particularly-adjusted figures in the headline? Seeing some *interesting* trends here at Survation HQ in current fieldwork
On France, I think it’s foolish of the other parties to form grand and contorted coalitions to thwart the FN. The best strategy is to let them govern. Give them the rope and let them hang themselves. If they’re anything like the populist British right they’ll fragment in no time at all.
The problem with that idea is that the National Ramblers have been in power at various levels in the French system, already. The days when they instantly bombed out when they got on the local council are decades in the past.
The judge in my latest case today decided we had to start again. Deeply frustrating because the case will now run to the end of the week and beyond making a late election night impossible. I will go home on Friday and vote at 7 on Thursday but it will be an early night for me 😞
You can "restart" cases that quickly in Scotland? Or is it that you're now expeceted in the office instead?
(This might be a completely impossible question to answer in your circumstances due to doxxing n that, in which case please instead answer by a link to an interesting youtube video)
The judge in my latest case today decided we had to start again. Deeply frustrating because the case will now run to the end of the week and beyond making a late election night impossible. I will go home on Friday and vote at 7 on Thursday but it will be an early night for me 😞
You can "restart" cases that quickly in Scotland? Or is it that you're now expeceted in the office instead?
(This might be a completely impossible question to answer in your circumstances due to doxxing n that, in which case please instead answer by a link to an interesting youtube video)
Not always but we have done it this time. Generally, if something goes awry we just start again with a new jury. Cases that are adjourned have to wait a long time.
Thanks. Will you be able to give a wee bit of a write up of what occurred once the case is finished do you think? I find this sort of thing interesting. But know just enough to know this might be impossible for loads of reasons, even if you're inclined to indulge the whims of an internet stranger.
Chief Justice John Roberts at his confirmation hearing: “No one is above the law under our system and that includes the president. The president is fully bound by the law.” (Sept. 2005) https://x.com/AccountableGOP/status/1807882444663587082
Deeply, profoundly, dishonest scum. The damage they have done is incalculable.
He simply affirmed the President cannot be prosecuted anymore than the King or PM can here for exercising their constitutional or prerogative powers. Only if they act illegally in a private capacity can they be prosecuted. I am no Trump fan but legally it was a reasoned case
What was the last poll reported that has not particularly-adjusted figures in the headline? Seeing some *interesting* trends here at Survation HQ in current fieldwork
As phrased I think that's tory voters coming back right? From experience of his previous poll ramping he'd be calling them explosive, seismic, cataclysmic if the other way. Something reasonably apocalyptic.
Chief Justice John Roberts at his confirmation hearing: “No one is above the law under our system and that includes the president. The president is fully bound by the law.” (Sept. 2005) https://x.com/AccountableGOP/status/1807882444663587082
Deeply, profoundly, dishonest scum. The damage they have done is incalculable.
I try to remain as objective possible (not always successfully I admit), but the staggering implications of what they have ruled just keep hitting me.
Yes, for Trump who is openly vindictive and seeking retribution, but also for whomever is President. Biden, Obama, any future President, the power they have just granted, and more than that the temptation to abuse the power knowing how difficult and costly it would be to try to rein them in, it's astonishing.
Workers Party candidate in Sutton Coldfield has had to suspend his campaigning after his canvassers were attacked by men with baseball bats and machetes leaving some, including his son, in hospital
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Shit, I crossed over the 50k line just 3 months ago!
If fiscal drag continues, I wonder what percentage of people will be higher rate taxpayers by the end of the next parliament.
Maybe 25% but the Daily Mail and Daily Express will still call a top quartile income a "middle income".
No overall majority is trading at 32. Pretty much the longest it has been all campaign.
Well obviously there will be a Labour majority (all most certainly a landslide) but it does look as though Con's messaging about the Labour "supermajority" and Lab tax plans might be having some cut through with Con > Ref switchers?
Never underestimate the conservatives. Their voters turn out on election day. It’s going to be a hell of a lot closer than hyped polls suggest.
It might not be 20% gap, but it won't be close.
I think its true for both main parties get more of their supporters back on the day, because for all the moaning, most of the British public aren't that radical or extreme. Although the Tories definitely given the best attempt to try the absolute patience of their natural supporters this time around.
Never underestimate the conservatives. Their voters turn out on election day. It’s going to be a hell of a lot closer than hyped polls suggest.
Do you have a number on that? I'm going to be shocked if the Tories make it to 150 (I'm predicting between 85-115 for now), do you think they might in fact get well above that?
I think I'm right in saying the Exit Poll doesn't factor in Postal Votes at all?
But Postal Votes are now higher than pre-COVID. Around 20% ish, maybe slightly more?
If there's a bit of a Tory surge between now and polling day, might the exit poll look slightly better than the actual result? We know a lot of postal votes might have come from a couple of weeks ago, when the Tories seem to have been a bit less popular than they may be on polling day itself?
I appreciate the exit poll is generally outstanding.
Never underestimate the conservatives. Their voters turn out on election day. It’s going to be a hell of a lot closer than hyped polls suggest.
Do you have a number on that? I'm going to be shocked if the Tories make it to 150 (I'm predicting between 85-115 for now), do you think they might in fact get well above that?
On the 2 polls from Savanta and JL Partners tonight on UNS the Tories would get about 180 seats
No overall majority is trading at 32. Pretty much the longest it has been all campaign.
Well obviously there will be a Labour majority (all most certainly a landslide) but it does look as though Con's messaging about the Labour "supermajority" and Lab tax plans might be having some cut through with Con > Ref switchers?
Not much movement on the seats market. I want to bet on the Tory seats bracket right but am finding it fiendishly difficult to land a prediction.
Not so long ago I would have jumped for joy at a 15 point lead on the Monday before polling day.
Now I'm wondering why the gap looks like it is closing.
Too many outliers and rogue polls for my liking.
People decide in the last week. It could be radically different on the day. Remember that no one expected the 2017 result. Even when the exit poll came out, people didn’t believe it. Check out the thread here.
Rule 1 of politics, do not underestimate the Tories. Labour generally needs everything going for it to scrape a majority.
I think I'm right in saying the Exit Poll doesn't factor in Postal Votes at all?
But Postal Votes are now higher than pre-COVID. Around 20% ish, maybe slightly more?
If there's a bit of a Tory surge between now and polling day, might the exit poll look slightly better than the actual result? We know a lot of postal votes might have come from a couple of weeks ago, when the Tories seem to have been a bit less popular than they may be on polling day itself?
I appreciate the exit poll is generally outstanding.
I just finally got my postal vote today, they appear to have been quite late here in Scotland.
I think I'm right in saying the Exit Poll doesn't factor in Postal Votes at all?
But Postal Votes are now higher than pre-COVID. Around 20% ish, maybe slightly more?
If there's a bit of a Tory surge between now and polling day, might the exit poll look slightly better than the actual result? We know a lot of postal votes might have come from a couple of weeks ago, when the Tories seem to have been a bit less popular than they may be on polling day itself?
I appreciate the exit poll is generally outstanding.
Postal votes will mainly be pensioners though who are largely Tory anyway even now. The swing voters are the middle aged who largely vote on the day
I know the maths shows that you don't need massive samples to get a decent estimate. 1500 in the UK is plenty. However, 2000 seems a very small sample for a country of the size and variation of the US and you would thought you could get more than that for a country of 300 million.
What was the last poll reported that has not particularly-adjusted figures in the headline? Seeing some *interesting* trends here at Survation HQ in current fieldwork
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Reform aren't planning any of that. They're all about immigration.
They have some insane spending plans. They plan to have zero net immigration.
Reform would crash the economy if elected. Luckily, they will be nowhere near the levers of power.
I'm not convinced that you have:
a) Read Reform's economic policy
b) Would have a clue what would 'crash the economy' if you had.
I think I'm right in saying the Exit Poll doesn't factor in Postal Votes at all?
But Postal Votes are now higher than pre-COVID. Around 20% ish, maybe slightly more?
If there's a bit of a Tory surge between now and polling day, might the exit poll look slightly better than the actual result? We know a lot of postal votes might have come from a couple of weeks ago, when the Tories seem to have been a bit less popular than they may be on polling day itself?
I appreciate the exit poll is generally outstanding.
Did you see the links I posted a couple of weeks ago about this subject? Here they are again.
"People who vote by post are not included in exit polls. This is potentially a source of bias, if the pattern of vote-changing among postal voters differs appreciably from the vote-changing behaviour of those who use a polling station. This does not seem to have been a major problem yet for prediction from exit polls, but if registration to vote by post continues to increase it could become so. For a bit more detail on how postal voting is accounted for, see Sec 2.2 of Curtice and Firth (2008)."
The problem of selecting polling locations for an exit poll in Britain is long standing, but in 2005 a new problem presented a potentially more fundamental challenge. Exit polls can of course only acquire information from those who actually attend a polling station to vote. If a significant proportion do not vote in person but rather vote, say, by post, then it may no longer be the case that those who vote in person are representative of all those who vote at that station."
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Reform aren't planning any of that. They're all about immigration.
They have some insane spending plans. They plan to have zero net immigration.
Reform would crash the economy if elected. Luckily, they will be nowhere near the levers of power.
I'm not convinced that you have:
a) Read Reform's economic policy
b) Would have a clue what would 'crash the economy' if you had.
John Mcdonell admitted a Corbyn government would probably crash the economy, at least at first, and Labour voters didn't seem to mind...
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Reform aren't planning any of that. They're all about immigration.
They have some insane spending plans. They plan to have zero net immigration.
Reform would crash the economy if elected. Luckily, they will be nowhere near the levers of power.
I'm not convinced that you have:
a) Read Reform's economic policy
b) Would have a clue what would 'crash the economy' if you had.
John Mcdonell admitted a Corbyn government would probably crash the economy, at least at first, and Labour voters didn't seem to mind...
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Question to all PBers: is there any serious suggestion of an exit tax ?
On France, I think it’s foolish of the other parties to form grand and contorted coalitions to thwart the FN. The best strategy is to let them govern. Give them the rope and let them hang themselves. If they’re anything like the populist British right they’ll fragment in no time at all.
The problem with that idea is that the National Ramblers have been in power at various levels in the French system, already. The days when they instantly bombed out when they got on the local council are decades in the past.
I don't think RN do actually have much of a track record of government at the regional level or major cities, unlike their FN predecessors who did win some big cities in the South and foundered badly. If the RN do win nationally I think it will be former Gaullists throwing their lot with Le Pen who will have some previous experience in any new government.
Thing is, even if these polls weren’t swinging to Trump, Biden should still quit.
1. You can’t have a senile President 2. You can’t lie about a President not being senile then when everyone sees that he’s senile say oh it doesn’t matter vote for him anyway, Jill will run the country
Skilfully my school has scheduled a parents' evening till 7 on Wednesday. And the leavers prom till 8 on GE day. Thanks a bunch. Going to get home vote and go to bed.
Anecdata: conversation with one of my firm's partners this evening, who was slightly Reformy 2 weeks ago, but this evening was shitting a brick over tax: "if you earn over £50k, they're coming for you etc" on pensions, ISAs, capital gains, income tax bands, council tax, inheritance tax and even an "exit" tax if you try and leave the UK to take it with you.
My guess is he now goes Tory on the day.
Reform aren't planning any of that. They're all about immigration.
They have some insane spending plans. They plan to have zero net immigration.
Reform would crash the economy if elected. Luckily, they will be nowhere near the levers of power.
I'm not convinced that you have:
a) Read Reform's economic policy
b) Would have a clue what would 'crash the economy' if you had.
I've read it. It relies a lot on rather optimistic assumptions around vague savings in government spending which I find suspicious from anyone (unspecified 'reform' or 'savings' is the new magic money tree'), it's a full third of the annualised savings they say they will make, but I cannot say I have sufficient understanding of economics to adequately judge any party pledges on what will improve matters or not.
Thing is, even if these polls weren’t swinging to Trump, Biden should still quit.
1. You can’t have a senile President 2. You can’t lie about a President not being senile then when everyone sees that he’s senile say oh it doesn’t matter vote for him anyway, Jill will run the country
It’s absurd and obscene. Get rid of him
Half of the US would prefer Jill to run the country than Trump, even if her husband was in a coma
That’s a mahoosive shift in this context. In fact I’m calling it a mahoohoohohoohoohohoosive shift and it’s not often I say that
Surely this is it for Biden. A crushing defeat TO DONALD TRUMP is staring the Dems in the face. Biden has to go. If he won’t jump, push
Trump got 47% last time, he is doing not even a percentage point better than he did in 2020.
Biden is down but about 12% of voters undecided and where they go will decide the election
You cannot ask voters to elect a demented President. It is wrong dangerous and stupid on about 100 different levels. Not least - it justifies the GOP doing whatever the fuck they like - they can say Oh well you knew the President was mad and you tried to get him re-elected despite that
It will absolutely shatter the Democrat brand in time
And it’s insane in terms of foreign policy. Do you not see this?
On France, I think it’s foolish of the other parties to form grand and contorted coalitions to thwart the FN. The best strategy is to let them govern. Give them the rope and let them hang themselves. If they’re anything like the populist British right they’ll fragment in no time at all.
The problem with that idea is that the National Ramblers have been in power at various levels in the French system, already. The days when they instantly bombed out when they got on the local council are decades in the past.
I don't think RN do actually have much of a track record of government at the regional level or major cities, unlike their FN predecessors who did win some big cities in the South and foundered badly. If the RN do win nationally I think it will be former Gaullists throwing their lot with Le Pen who will have some previous experience in any new government.
Yup, Le Pen can't win without centre right Gaullists backing her in France, Farage can't win here without getting most Tories behind him, Trump can't win in the US without moderate Republicans and fiscally conservative Independents backing him either
Thing is, even if these polls weren’t swinging to Trump, Biden should still quit.
1. You can’t have a senile President 2. You can’t lie about a President not being senile then when everyone sees that he’s senile say oh it doesn’t matter vote for him anyway, Jill will run the country
It’s absurd and obscene. Get rid of him
Half of the US would prefer Jill to run the country than Trump, even if her husband was in a coma
Unfortunately they need that half to be in the right places.
Why oh why didn't a million liberal Californians move to the swing states after 2020?
Not so long ago I would have jumped for joy at a 15 point lead on the Monday before polling day.
Now I'm wondering why the gap looks like it is closing.
Too many outliers and rogue polls for my liking.
People decide in the last week. It could be radically different on the day. Remember that no one expected the 2017 result. Even when the exit poll came out, people didn’t believe it. Check out the thread here.
Rule 1 of politics, do not underestimate the Tories. Labour generally needs everything going for it to scrape a majority.
The 2015 GE was the first one I finally dipped my toes in the water and decided to bet on, I just had a gut feeling that the polls were underestimating the Tories, so I bet on them gaining a majority. But I had the exact opposite feeling in 2017, I thought it was a huge mistake for May to call that GE when she did so I avoided betting on the outcome and just concentrated on Scottish constituency bets which gave me a healthy profit.
This time I have been a bit surprised that Reform has not had a bigger impact on the Labour vote share in the polls after Farage became Reform Leader and entered the GE race, particular in the Red wall. Many of those former Labour voters in the Red wall who voted for Boris in 2019 seem to have done so via switching to Farage/UKIP first in previous few years, and I cannot see a Keir Starmer Labour government setting the heather on fire in some of those seats and getting the vote out.
That’s a mahoosive shift in this context. In fact I’m calling it a mahoohoohohoohoohohoosive shift and it’s not often I say that
Surely this is it for Biden. A crushing defeat TO DONALD TRUMP is staring the Dems in the face. Biden has to go. If he won’t jump, push
Trump got 47% last time, he is doing not even a percentage point better than he did in 2020.
Biden is down but about 12% of voters undecided and where they go will decide the election
You cannot ask voters to elect a demented President. It is wrong dangerous and stupid on about 100 different levels. Not least - it justifies the GOP doing whatever the fuck they like - they can say Oh well you knew the President was mad and you tried to get him re-elected despite that
It will absolutely shatter the Democrat brand in time
And it’s insane in terms of foreign policy. Do you not see this?
If Haley, who is pro Zelensky and tough on Beijing and NK was GOP nominee maybe.
Trump however is pally with Putin, pals with Jong Un and has never met a dictator he didn't like
Thing is, even if these polls weren’t swinging to Trump, Biden should still quit.
1. You can’t have a senile President 2. You can’t lie about a President not being senile then when everyone sees that he’s senile say oh it doesn’t matter vote for him anyway, Jill will run the country
It’s absurd and obscene. Get rid of him
Half of the US would prefer Jill to run the country than Trump, even if her husband was in a coma
And then the republicans can say So you deceived the entire American people and the President was elected on a fraudulent basis - unconstitutional, he’s unfit for office - so we’re just going to ignore the election and/or challenge it in SCOTUS
Lab 39.75% Con 22.25% Ref 15.00% LD 11.25% Grn 5.25% SNP 3.00%
Those numbers look kind of familiar / similar to ones various people have been posting on here.
Under 40 feels like it would be disappointingly low for Labour after all the hullaballo, but obviously more than adequate versus the split opposition.
I last predicted Reform over the LDs by about 5, and that still seems possible - I think the LDs will struggle to get into the teens, whilst Reform will be disappointed to drop out of them.
That’s a mahoosive shift in this context. In fact I’m calling it a mahoohoohohoohoohohoosive shift and it’s not often I say that
Surely this is it for Biden. A crushing defeat TO DONALD TRUMP is staring the Dems in the face. Biden has to go. If he won’t jump, push
Given you need the GDP of a small nation to run a US presidential campaign, it will be the donors that eventually decide.
Disagree. Dem donors are mainly motivated by the need to beat Trump. They may have opinions that might affect Biden's decision at the margin but ultimately most of the people who were going to donate will donate whoever the candidate is.
It's not like a primary campaign where you spend whatever you have early in the hope of building up momentum and then if the donors switch to somebody else you have no option but to shut everything down.
Thing is, even if these polls weren’t swinging to Trump, Biden should still quit.
1. You can’t have a senile President 2. You can’t lie about a President not being senile then when everyone sees that he’s senile say oh it doesn’t matter vote for him anyway, Jill will run the country
It’s absurd and obscene. Get rid of him
Half of the US would prefer Jill to run the country than Trump, even if her husband was in a coma
And then the republicans can say So you deceived the entire American people and the President was elected on a fraudulent basis - unconstitutional, he’s unfit for office - so we’re just going to ignore the election and/or challenge it in SCOTUS
You’re really setting up the civil war there
Well the GOP could have nominated Haley, who most Democrats would have grudgingly accepted had she won and would likely easily have beaten Biden and got well over 50%.
Yet no, they had to nominate the most divisive candidate in their party's history a third time even after his supporters stormed Congress 3 years ago. So if the US is near civil war the GOP are just as responsible
That’s a mahoosive shift in this context. In fact I’m calling it a mahoohoohohoohoohohoosive shift and it’s not often I say that
Surely this is it for Biden. A crushing defeat TO DONALD TRUMP is staring the Dems in the face. Biden has to go. If he won’t jump, push
Trump got 47% last time, he is doing not even a percentage point better than he did in 2020.
Biden is down but about 12% of voters undecided and where they go will decide the election
You cannot ask voters to elect a demented President. It is wrong dangerous and stupid on about 100 different levels. Not least - it justifies the GOP doing whatever the fuck they like - they can say Oh well you knew the President was mad and you tried to get him re-elected despite that
It will absolutely shatter the Democrat brand in time
And it’s insane in terms of foreign policy. Do you not see this?
If Haley, who is pro Zelensky and tough on Beijing and NK was GOP nominee maybe.
Trump however is pally with Putin, pals with Jong Un and has never met a dictator he didn't like
What actually happened under Trump? No wars - that’s what happened
Under Biden, lots of wars. And as Biden’s faculties decline further?
Trump is a dangerous loon but a demented Biden is arguably even more dangerous plus Biden will lose anyway
The only choice for the Dems is to accept they fucked up - massively - kick out Demented Joe and have a brokered convention. Let democracy decide
On France, I think it’s foolish of the other parties to form grand and contorted coalitions to thwart the FN. The best strategy is to let them govern. Give them the rope and let them hang themselves. If they’re anything like the populist British right they’ll fragment in no time at all.
The problem with that idea is that the National Ramblers have been in power at various levels in the French system, already. The days when they instantly bombed out when they got on the local council are decades in the past.
I don't think RN do actually have much of a track record of government at the regional level or major cities, unlike their FN predecessors who did win some big cities in the South and foundered badly. If the RN do win nationally I think it will be former Gaullists throwing their lot with Le Pen who will have some previous experience in any new government.
Yup, Le Pen can't win without centre right Gaullists backing her in France, Farage can't win here without getting most Tories behind him, Trump can't win in the US without moderate Republicans and fiscally conservative Independents backing him either
Any paragraph that says the triumvirate of Le Pen, Farage and Trump can't win is music to my ears. I ignored the other words.
Not so long ago I would have jumped for joy at a 15 point lead on the Monday before polling day.
Now I'm wondering why the gap looks like it is closing.
Too many outliers and rogue polls for my liking.
People decide in the last week. It could be radically different on the day. Remember that no one expected the 2017 result. Even when the exit poll came out, people didn’t believe it. Check out the thread here.
Rule 1 of politics, do not underestimate the Tories. Labour generally needs everything going for it to scrape a majority.
Wasn't the problem of 2017 people overestimating the Tories?
No. It was vastly underestimating the 40% Labour share.
That’s a mahoosive shift in this context. In fact I’m calling it a mahoohoohohoohoohohoosive shift and it’s not often I say that
Surely this is it for Biden. A crushing defeat TO DONALD TRUMP is staring the Dems in the face. Biden has to go. If he won’t jump, push
Trump got 47% last time, he is doing not even a percentage point better than he did in 2020.
Biden is down but about 12% of voters undecided and where they go will decide the election
You cannot ask voters to elect a demented President. It is wrong dangerous and stupid on about 100 different levels. Not least - it justifies the GOP doing whatever the fuck they like - they can say Oh well you knew the President was mad and you tried to get him re-elected despite that
It will absolutely shatter the Democrat brand in time
And it’s insane in terms of foreign policy. Do you not see this?
If Haley, who is pro Zelensky and tough on Beijing and NK was GOP nominee maybe.
Trump however is pally with Putin, pals with Jong Un and has never met a dictator he didn't like
What actually happened under Trump? No wars - that’s what happened
Under Biden, lots of wars. And as Biden’s faculties decline further?
Trump is a dangerous loon but a demented Biden is arguably even more dangerous plus Biden will lose anyway
The only choice for the Dems is to accept they fucked up - massively - kick out Demented Joe and have a brokered convention. Let democracy decide
Thing is, even if these polls weren’t swinging to Trump, Biden should still quit.
1. You can’t have a senile President 2. You can’t lie about a President not being senile then when everyone sees that he’s senile say oh it doesn’t matter vote for him anyway, Jill will run the country
It’s absurd and obscene. Get rid of him
The problem is the ridiculous "Won't back down" attitude that's so popular in the United States, even when it's obvious to everyone that you should.
Comments
https://x.com/AccountableGOP/status/1807882444663587082
@GuidoFawkes
Reform Executing £1 Million Advertising Blitz in Final Week https://order-order.com/2024/07/01/reform-executing-1-million-advertising-blitz-in-final-week
Where is the money coming from?
What was the last poll reported that has not particularly-adjusted figures in the headline? Seeing some *interesting* trends here at Survation HQ in current fieldwork
https://x.com/DamianSurvation/status/1807892487551570024
Just like Slovakia weren't going to go through when Jude scored on 90+5
No overall majority is trading at 32. Pretty much the longest it has been all campaign.
Unless it's a lib dem surge I guess.
CON heading for 28% maybe 30% but still big majority for LAB
Yes, for Trump who is openly vindictive and seeking retribution, but also for whomever is President. Biden, Obama, any future President, the power they have just granted, and more than that the temptation to abuse the power knowing how difficult and costly it would be to try to rein them in, it's astonishing.
Sometimes people can just be cunts. They don't have to be traitorous cunts.
I think its true for both main parties get more of their supporters back on the day, because for all the moaning, most of the British public aren't that radical or extreme. Although the Tories definitely given the best attempt to try the absolute patience of their natural supporters this time around.
Now I'm wondering why the gap looks like it is closing.
Too many outliers and rogue polls for my liking.
I think I'm right in saying the Exit Poll doesn't factor in Postal Votes at all?
But Postal Votes are now higher than pre-COVID. Around 20% ish, maybe slightly more?
If there's a bit of a Tory surge between now and polling day, might the exit poll look slightly better than the actual result? We know a lot of postal votes might have come from a couple of weeks ago, when the Tories seem to have been a bit less popular than they may be on polling day itself?
I appreciate the exit poll is generally outstanding.
Rule 1 of politics, do not underestimate the Tories. Labour generally needs everything going for it to scrape a majority.
Four days to a Labour government.
Just rejoice at that news.
Rejoice.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbctwo
2024 National GE:
Trump 47% (+6)
Biden 41%
@Harvard/@Harris_X_/@HarrisPoll, 2,090 RV, 6/28-30
a) Read Reform's economic policy
b) Would have a clue what would 'crash the economy' if you had.
We wait and see what Trump's sentence is next week and then who his VP is and what the impact of the conventions are.
Plus if any polls show alternatives to Biden doing any better v Trump
"People who vote by post are not included in exit polls. This is potentially a source of bias, if the pattern of vote-changing among postal voters differs appreciably from the vote-changing behaviour of those who use a polling station. This does not seem to have been a major problem yet for prediction from exit polls, but if registration to vote by post continues to increase it could become so. For a bit more detail on how postal voting is accounted for, see Sec 2.2 of Curtice and Firth (2008)."
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/
"2.2. Postal voting
The problem of selecting polling locations for an exit poll in Britain is long standing, but in 2005 a new problem presented a potentially more fundamental challenge. Exit polls can of course only acquire information from those who actually attend a polling station to vote. If a significant proportion do not vote in person but rather vote, say, by post, then it may no longer be the case that those who vote in person are representative of all those who vote at that station."
https://academic.oup.com/jrsssa/article/171/3/509/7085116 "
Surely this is it for Biden. A crushing defeat TO DONALD TRUMP is staring the Dems in the face. Biden has to go. If he won’t jump, push
Biden is down but about 12% of voters undecided and where they go will decide the election
1. You can’t have a senile President
2. You can’t lie about a President not being senile then when everyone sees that he’s senile say oh it doesn’t matter vote for him anyway, Jill will run the country
It’s absurd and obscene. Get rid of him
And the leavers prom till 8 on GE day.
Thanks a bunch. Going to get home vote and go to bed.
Lab 39.75%
Con 22.25%
Ref 15.00%
LD 11.25%
Grn 5.25%
SNP 3.00%
Those numbers look kind of familiar / similar to ones various people have been posting on here.
It will absolutely shatter the Democrat brand in time
And it’s insane in terms of foreign policy. Do you not see this?
Why oh why didn't a million liberal Californians move to the swing states after 2020?
This time I have been a bit surprised that Reform has not had a bigger impact on the Labour vote share in the polls after Farage became Reform Leader and entered the GE race, particular in the Red wall. Many of those former Labour voters in the Red wall who voted for Boris in 2019 seem to have done so via switching to Farage/UKIP first in previous few years, and I cannot see a Keir Starmer Labour government setting the heather on fire in some of those seats and getting the vote out.
Trump however is pally with Putin, pals with Jong Un and has never met a dictator he didn't like
You’re really setting up the civil war there
I last predicted Reform over the LDs by about 5, and that still seems possible - I think the LDs will struggle to get into the teens, whilst Reform will be disappointed to drop out of them.
It's not like a primary campaign where you spend whatever you have early in the hope of building up momentum and then if the donors switch to somebody else you have no option but to shut everything down.
Yet no, they had to nominate the most divisive candidate in their party's history a third time even after his supporters stormed Congress 3 years ago. So if the US is near civil war the GOP are just as responsible
Under Biden, lots of wars. And as Biden’s faculties decline further?
Trump is a dangerous loon but a demented Biden is arguably even more dangerous plus Biden will lose anyway
The only choice for the Dems is to accept they fucked up - massively - kick out Demented Joe and have a brokered convention. Let democracy decide
I ignored the other words.