Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I think we might see also something fun on the night, like the Lib Dems being a fraction behind the Tories in seats in the exit poll, and then ending up marginally ahead once the results are done.
EDIT: Just realised the above seat totals gives a hilarious incentive for the Reform Tory merger...
At the moment I suggest:
Labour 40% 460 seats. Tory 23% 70 seats. LD ahead of Tories? - touch and go. Further polling awaited.
Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.
Wonderful imagery for the Dems.
That being so, the voters are going to hate convicted felon candidate Donald J. Trump.
They already do.
And that, frankly, is why I think most of what is going on at the moment is noise. Did the debate look bad? Yes. Did it make any significant shifts in the polls? No. Is Trump winning where he needs to? At best he's neck and neck, and he tends to underperform his polling.
I'm also not altogether sure the Supreme Court giving absolute power to a convicted criminal who boasts about wanting to be a dictator is going to play quite as well in swing states as they and he seem to think it will.
I hope you are right. Some of the more enthusiastic Trumpsters on here are nonetheless greatly cheered by Biden's poor display last week.
Joe's memory isn't what it was, but it would appear he doesn't require a lifetime supply of adult Pampers. Apparently the aroma around the defendant in that New York courtroom was reminiscent of eau de decomposing squirrel.
Did none of that strike you as at all infantile while you were typing it? How funny actually is incontinence in the elderly? Did Biden really show nothing worse than memory deficit in that debate?
I was greatly cheered by Bidens poor showing and I will tell you why. He is almost guaranteed to be incontrovertibly demented by November and to lose, so I want him demented by August and replaced by someone who might beat Trump. But easier if you put me down as a Trumpster.
Well I touched a nerve there.
Yes it is infantile and it might be disingenuous to those unfortunate enough to have lost control of their functions. My father finished his days with a stoma, so under normal circumstances I would not jest about such a serious matter. The gentleman in question however claims personal perfection so any point which punctures his inflated ego is fine by me.
As has been mentioned by others on here FDR was in terminal decline, and Reagan in the later stages of dementia during their later years in office. So the situation of a declining Biden might be sub optimal but it is not something that hasn't been dealt with before.
A completely mad narcissistic psychopathic Putin apologist with severe age related mental impairment, surrounded by bad actors, would be far, far more dangerous than sleepy Joe.
Ah yes the old Say something twattish, get told it is twattish, play the I touched a nerve there routine. Well played.
Your routine is literally Your man poos in his pants and smells of wee; you think there's some sort of clever meta spin on that, but there is not. Re-read what I wrote and try to understand that I welcome Biden's deterioration precisely because I hate Trump.
Also I wouldn't bet more than buttons against biden having continence issues.
Sadly, my medically qualified friend has identified exactly that with some of Biden’s stranger postures
The most bizarre part of this whole discussion is that we're talking about the seriousness of the issues these two have today.
Whoever wins this election is supposed to be president until January 2029.
There's no way either should seriously be considered as a candidate.
Democratic National Committee is considering formally nominating Biden as early as mid-July to ensure that the president is on November ballots, while helping to stamp out intra-party chatter of replacing him after his poor debate performance, @MarioDParker and @gregorykorte report. A potential date for Biden’s nomination is July 21, when the Dem convention’s credentials committee meets virtually. The panel is meeting to finalize procedures before the convention in Chicago starts Aug. 19. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.
Wonderful imagery for the Dems.
That being so, the voters are going to hate convicted felon candidate Donald J. Trump.
They already do.
And that, frankly, is why I think most of what is going on at the moment is noise. Did the debate look bad? Yes. Did it make any significant shifts in the polls? No. Is Trump winning where he needs to? At best he's neck and neck, and he tends to underperform his polling.
I'm also not altogether sure the Supreme Court giving absolute power to a convicted criminal who boasts about wanting to be a dictator is going to play quite as well in swing states as they and he seem to think it will.
I hope you are right. Some of the more enthusiastic Trumpsters on here are nonetheless greatly cheered by Biden's poor display last week.
Joe's memory isn't what it was, but it would appear he doesn't require a lifetime supply of adult Pampers. Apparently the aroma around the defendant in that New York courtroom was reminiscent of eau de decomposing squirrel.
Did none of that strike you as at all infantile while you were typing it? How funny actually is incontinence in the elderly? Did Biden really show nothing worse than memory deficit in that debate?
I was greatly cheered by Bidens poor showing and I will tell you why. He is almost guaranteed to be incontrovertibly demented by November and to lose, so I want him demented by August and replaced by someone who might beat Trump. But easier if you put me down as a Trumpster.
Well I touched a nerve there.
Yes it is infantile and it might be disingenuous to those unfortunate enough to have lost control of their functions. My father finished his days with a stoma, so under normal circumstances I would not jest about such a serious matter. The gentleman in question however claims personal perfection so any point which punctures his inflated ego is fine by me.
As has been mentioned by others on here FDR was in terminal decline, and Reagan in the later stages of dementia during their later years in office. So the situation of a declining Biden might be sub optimal but it is not something that hasn't been dealt with before.
A completely mad narcissistic psychopathic Putin apologist with severe age related mental impairment, surrounded by bad actors, would be far, far more dangerous than sleepy Joe.
Ah yes the old Say something twattish, get told it is twattish, play the I touched a nerve there routine. Well played.
Your routine is literally Your man poos in his pants and smells of wee; you think there's some sort of clever meta spin on that, but there is not. Re-read what I wrote and try to understand that I welcome Biden's deterioration precisely because I hate Trump.
Also I wouldn't bet more than buttons against biden having continence issues.
Reform starting to look good value at 12% or lower
I can see a significant late swing from Reform to the Can't Be Arsed Party.
Or back to the Tories. Notice how, just lately, that practically the entire Conservative campaign has been about nothing but Keir Starmer's supermajority? They gave up trying to spin the £2k tax bombshell, for example, some time ago. Whether or not that means they believe they have good evidence, from focus groups or canvassing, that it is working, who can say? But I've seen some of the Tory social media output and it's essentially them telling old people that, if they indulge themselves by voting for Reform, the supermajority will be the result and Evil Keir will then fill the electorate with sixteen year olds and foreigners, so that Labour gets to rule forever.
There's still a bit of stuff about taxes on houses and taxes on pensions and such like, but basically it's the Conservatives telling the grey vote that if they don't get back on side there'll be a socialist dictatorship for all eternity. It's crude and laughable, but if they think they have evidence that it'll terrify enough old duckies back into line then of course they're going to do it.
There is a considerable potency to the argument where the Tories might lose to a pro-Brussels LibDem. Reform is worse than a wasted vote in that situation. It faclitates that which they despise.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
A question we haven't discussed much recently. This is the first general election since voter ID came in. So we know little or nothing about the effects. Only the keen vote at other elections.
3 Questions: Will a significant number of older mainly working class voters without passports and things simply stay away rather than be embarrassed by the system which might decline their bingo club membership card (I wouldn't blame them).
Will many younger voters (and middle aged non passport, non driving licence urban types?) stay away/be refused for the same thing?
Will a serious number of people not know about it.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
He really believes his own destiny, doesn’t he? Oops
He became President before he was 40 and formed his own party which then won an easy majority, overcoming the traditional parties of the state. I'd believe in my own destiny.
He is a bit like Napoleon, young and brilliant and French and absurdly successful, and I am sure he realises the parallels
Unfortunately this election he’s called seems to be his Invasion of Russia. I’ve just read Zamoyski’s superb biography of Napoleon and the echoes are profound. When Napoleon said he was going to invade Russia everyone thought he was bluffing, as there seemed no obvious reason for it, and not much to be gained and it could easily be a disaster. Then he went and did it and everybody sat back waiting for his secret 9D chess plan to reveal itself, but there wasn’t one. The invasion was a disaster
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
Thanks. I wonder whether a couple of recent polls which happen to be from outfits tending to have the Tories doing better than most have skewed the sense of the trend.
The truly consistent thread for some time has been that Tories poll half (50% approx) the Labour figure.
I don't think that will be the score on Thursday, but it won't be far off.
Your excellent argument has the Tories polling 71% of the Labour figure. I think that switch is too far too fast. I expect more like Labour 39-40%, Tories 23-25%. As to seats? No idea. Too much depends on tactical voting patterns.
Yes I haven't factored in tactical voting. As for 50% => 70% that probably says more about me than the electorate in that we are so used to a two-party FPTP system that I think people may take refuge in maintaining it so that there is some kind of a cohesive opposition. For all his being shot out of cannons I don't think anyone sees, for example, the LibDems as the Official Opposition and we do want an Official Opposition.
I've read a lot of stuff this weekend about how a surprising amount of the electorate have no idea about this 'supermajority' talk like we political junkies do. Many of them still think a hung parliament is a decently likely outcome!
As such I'm not sure the average voter is factoring in that kind of thing in their head as much
It is a decently likely outcome (if you ignore opinion polls). Labour need to win about 120 seats (140 if you include boundary changes) to get a majority of one.
At this stage in 2017, am I right in thinking that some, polls had picked up the surge in the Corbyn vote, but this time the polls are pretty static, and are probably settling on Labour 38% Tories 25%
Survation was the outlier among the reputable pollsters with Labour on 40%. Most of the rest had the Tory lead around 10% just before the vote.
Albeit the pollsters were all reporting quite significant rises in the Labour vote. During the campaign, the Labour polling average had risen from 25% on 18 April, to 37% on the Monday of election week.
Some people must have made a killing on the spreads, I have been waiting all campaign for some sign of a Tory comeback, which would would determine my betting, but it looks unlikely now. It is still very difficult to call the Tory seat total though, and fraught with danger
I doubt anyone's made a killing on the spreads yet (relative to stake size). Broadly speaking, there's been two up/down movements so far (unless you picked bottoms/tops absolutely perfectly).
This is because the bid/offer spreads are so large. If you were making the market you could make a killing. Cause there's been plenty of oscillation.
I really, really, REALLY want a peer to peer spreads exchange, where I can get inside the spread.
(FWIW I am long Labour at 402, I also shorted Lib Dems at 57 and exited that position at 58, or maybe it was 56 and 57, 1 seat loss anyway)
What Father Ted meant when he described something as an ecumenical matter was that it was a quasi-political matter for the Vatican and hence separate from his responsibilities and above his paygrade as a parish priest, or in simpler terms, an easy way of ending the conversation or changing the subject. I suspect most practising Roman Catholics will have understood it as such.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
Apologies if this has been done to death already but bloody hell, the US Supreme Court has done devastating damage to US democracy and the rule of law.
Biden should use these new immunities to lock Trump up until after the election. We can argue about whether that is an official act or not afterwards. Thank God we don’t have a real Supreme Court on this country. If you ever wanted evidence of how dangerous a court without a sovereign Parliament can be look no further.
What would the US House of Commons do about such a ruling?
Thatcher - Pass an act overruling the Asses and Cocklecarrots. Starmer - Genuflect to the Lawyerly unelected Priesthood.
Liberals and Tory Wets like Sunak. See Starmer for further details.
They would pass an Act impeaching the more egregious justices like Thomas and Alito and make it clear that the POTUS is subject to the law, just as everyone else is.
Even given the appalling decisions of late I am genuinely shocked by this ruling.
This ruling is the sort of thing you see in the prologue of those dystopian films and TV shows like The Handmaid's Tale.
Suburban Science Teacher here, but...
1 What is the best workable case that can be made for this ruling? Because it looks f#&!ING scary. Because if do what you will really is the whole of the law, fewest scruples wins.
2 Is there any way out of this for our American friends?
Any kind-hearted, deep-pocketed PBers willing & able to sponsor my asylum-seeking claim IF yours truly is forced by running dogs of reaction from my native shores?
And to register such a claim, is it obligatory to enter the UK via a small boat?
I'm sure if you get onto the family history centre in Dublin they will be able to find you a selection of distant Irish relations to seek shelter with.
Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.
Wonderful imagery for the Dems.
That being so, the voters are going to hate convicted felon candidate Donald J. Trump.
They already do.
And that, frankly, is why I think most of what is going on at the moment is noise. Did the debate look bad? Yes. Did it make any significant shifts in the polls? No. Is Trump winning where he needs to? At best he's neck and neck, and he tends to underperform his polling.
I'm also not altogether sure the Supreme Court giving absolute power to a convicted criminal who boasts about wanting to be a dictator is going to play quite as well in swing states as they and he seem to think it will.
I hope you are right. Some of the more enthusiastic Trumpsters on here are nonetheless greatly cheered by Biden's poor display last week.
Joe's memory isn't what it was, but it would appear he doesn't require a lifetime supply of adult Pampers. Apparently the aroma around the defendant in that New York courtroom was reminiscent of eau de decomposing squirrel.
Did none of that strike you as at all infantile while you were typing it? How funny actually is incontinence in the elderly? Did Biden really show nothing worse than memory deficit in that debate?
I was greatly cheered by Bidens poor showing and I will tell you why. He is almost guaranteed to be incontrovertibly demented by November and to lose, so I want him demented by August and replaced by someone who might beat Trump. But easier if you put me down as a Trumpster.
Well I touched a nerve there.
Yes it is infantile and it might be disingenuous to those unfortunate enough to have lost control of their functions. My father finished his days with a stoma, so under normal circumstances I would not jest about such a serious matter. The gentleman in question however claims personal perfection so any point which punctures his inflated ego is fine by me.
As has been mentioned by others on here FDR was in terminal decline, and Reagan in the later stages of dementia during their later years in office. So the situation of a declining Biden might be sub optimal but it is not something that hasn't been dealt with before.
A completely mad narcissistic psychopathic Putin apologist with severe age related mental impairment, surrounded by bad actors, would be far, far more dangerous than sleepy Joe.
Ah yes the old Say something twattish, get told it is twattish, play the I touched a nerve there routine. Well played.
Your routine is literally Your man poos in his pants and smells of wee; you think there's some sort of clever meta spin on that, but there is not. Re-read what I wrote and try to understand that I welcome Biden's deterioration precisely because I hate Trump.
Also I wouldn't bet more than buttons against biden having continence issues.
If I wasn't I might make the mistake of believing Trump to be less dangerous than he appears.
Yes. Again, and for the last time, I want Biden to be senile precisely because I think Trump is so dangerous. It's impossible to overstate how straightforward this point is and I am genuinely sorry to hear you are not drunk, because I can't even offer you the consolation of sobriety tomorrow.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
Apologies if this has been done to death already but bloody hell, the US Supreme Court has done devastating damage to US democracy and the rule of law.
Biden should use these new immunities to lock Trump up until after the election. We can argue about whether that is an official act or not afterwards. Thank God we don’t have a real Supreme Court on this country. If you ever wanted evidence of how dangerous a court without a sovereign Parliament can be look no further.
What would the US House of Commons do about such a ruling?
Thatcher - Pass an act overruling the Asses and Cocklecarrots. Starmer - Genuflect to the Lawyerly unelected Priesthood.
Liberals and Tory Wets like Sunak. See Starmer for further details.
They would pass an Act impeaching the more egregious justices like Thomas and Alito and make it clear that the POTUS is subject to the law, just as everyone else is.
Even given the appalling decisions of late I am genuinely shocked by this ruling.
This ruling is the sort of thing you see in the prologue of those dystopian films and TV shows like The Handmaid's Tale.
Biden should (officially) lock up chief justice John Roberts. See how long it takes for him to change his mind.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
I suspect the exit poll will show a big Labour majority but then we all assume that anyway.
Where I think it will struggle is in predicting the relative Tory, LD and Reform seats; this election is too unusual for that.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I think we might see also something fun on the night, like the Lib Dems being a fraction behind the Tories in seats in the exit poll, and then ending up marginally ahead once the results are done.
EDIT: Just realised the above seat totals gives a hilarious incentive for the Reform Tory merger...
I think "something fun" on the night is a dead cert (betting wise I mean. Obviously there'll be loads of fun watching history etc). No idea what otherwise I'd be on it. But the most obvious is definitely something to do with the exit poll. Unfortunately as to whether that's a duff exit poll or a crazy sounding exit poll that turns out to be right.... .... who knows.
Definitely gonna be alive here. Just haven't decided yet if I'm gonna stay sober and bet like a maniac or get hammered and enjoy the fun. Maybe both.
Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.
Wonderful imagery for the Dems.
That being so, the voters are going to hate convicted felon candidate Donald J. Trump.
They already do.
And that, frankly, is why I think most of what is going on at the moment is noise. Did the debate look bad? Yes. Did it make any significant shifts in the polls? No. Is Trump winning where he needs to? At best he's neck and neck, and he tends to underperform his polling.
I'm also not altogether sure the Supreme Court giving absolute power to a convicted criminal who boasts about wanting to be a dictator is going to play quite as well in swing states as they and he seem to think it will.
I hope you are right. Some of the more enthusiastic Trumpsters on here are nonetheless greatly cheered by Biden's poor display last week.
Joe's memory isn't what it was, but it would appear he doesn't require a lifetime supply of adult Pampers. Apparently the aroma around the defendant in that New York courtroom was reminiscent of eau de decomposing squirrel.
Did none of that strike you as at all infantile while you were typing it? How funny actually is incontinence in the elderly? Did Biden really show nothing worse than memory deficit in that debate?
I was greatly cheered by Bidens poor showing and I will tell you why. He is almost guaranteed to be incontrovertibly demented by November and to lose, so I want him demented by August and replaced by someone who might beat Trump. But easier if you put me down as a Trumpster.
Well I touched a nerve there.
Yes it is infantile and it might be disingenuous to those unfortunate enough to have lost control of their functions. My father finished his days with a stoma, so under normal circumstances I would not jest about such a serious matter. The gentleman in question however claims personal perfection so any point which punctures his inflated ego is fine by me.
As has been mentioned by others on here FDR was in terminal decline, and Reagan in the later stages of dementia during their later years in office. So the situation of a declining Biden might be sub optimal but it is not something that hasn't been dealt with before.
A completely mad narcissistic psychopathic Putin apologist with severe age related mental impairment, surrounded by bad actors, would be far, far more dangerous than sleepy Joe.
Ah yes the old Say something twattish, get told it is twattish, play the I touched a nerve there routine. Well played.
Your routine is literally Your man poos in his pants and smells of wee; you think there's some sort of clever meta spin on that, but there is not. Re-read what I wrote and try to understand that I welcome Biden's deterioration precisely because I hate Trump.
Also I wouldn't bet more than buttons against biden having continence issues.
If I wasn't I might make the mistake of believing Trump to be less dangerous than he appears.
Yes. Again, and for the last time, I want Biden to be senile precisely because I think Trump is so dangerous. It's impossible to overstate how straightforward this point is and I am genuinely sorry to hear you are not drunk, because I can't even offer you the consolation of sobriety tomorrow.
You may have a point about my cogency because I haven't got a clue what your master plan entails. So you "want Biden to be senile precisely because (you) I think Trump is so dangerous". Sorry mate, not a Scooby Doo.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
Well quite. MrEd/MisterBedfordshire is weirdo Trumpian trollcaster who knows very little about psephology. Hence his now legendary ‘tip’ for Trump to carry VA in Potus 2020, which Trump lost by 11 points.
Also @Tweedledee since you're online - shame I went for the parachuting rather than the bungee! My heuristic was which would make me piss myself less...
Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.
Wonderful imagery for the Dems.
That being so, the voters are going to hate convicted felon candidate Donald J. Trump.
They already do.
And that, frankly, is why I think most of what is going on at the moment is noise. Did the debate look bad? Yes. Did it make any significant shifts in the polls? No. Is Trump winning where he needs to? At best he's neck and neck, and he tends to underperform his polling.
I'm also not altogether sure the Supreme Court giving absolute power to a convicted criminal who boasts about wanting to be a dictator is going to play quite as well in swing states as they and he seem to think it will.
I hope you are right. Some of the more enthusiastic Trumpsters on here are nonetheless greatly cheered by Biden's poor display last week.
Joe's memory isn't what it was, but it would appear he doesn't require a lifetime supply of adult Pampers. Apparently the aroma around the defendant in that New York courtroom was reminiscent of eau de decomposing squirrel.
Did none of that strike you as at all infantile while you were typing it? How funny actually is incontinence in the elderly? Did Biden really show nothing worse than memory deficit in that debate?
I was greatly cheered by Bidens poor showing and I will tell you why. He is almost guaranteed to be incontrovertibly demented by November and to lose, so I want him demented by August and replaced by someone who might beat Trump. But easier if you put me down as a Trumpster.
Well I touched a nerve there.
Yes it is infantile and it might be disingenuous to those unfortunate enough to have lost control of their functions. My father finished his days with a stoma, so under normal circumstances I would not jest about such a serious matter. The gentleman in question however claims personal perfection so any point which punctures his inflated ego is fine by me.
As has been mentioned by others on here FDR was in terminal decline, and Reagan in the later stages of dementia during their later years in office. So the situation of a declining Biden might be sub optimal but it is not something that hasn't been dealt with before.
A completely mad narcissistic psychopathic Putin apologist with severe age related mental impairment, surrounded by bad actors, would be far, far more dangerous than sleepy Joe.
Ah yes the old Say something twattish, get told it is twattish, play the I touched a nerve there routine. Well played.
Your routine is literally Your man poos in his pants and smells of wee; you think there's some sort of clever meta spin on that, but there is not. Re-read what I wrote and try to understand that I welcome Biden's deterioration precisely because I hate Trump.
Also I wouldn't bet more than buttons against biden having continence issues.
If I wasn't I might make the mistake of believing Trump to be less dangerous than he appears.
Yes. Again, and for the last time, I want Biden to be senile precisely because I think Trump is so dangerous. It's impossible to overstate how straightforward this point is and I am genuinely sorry to hear you are not drunk, because I can't even offer you the consolation of sobriety tomorrow.
You may have a point about my cogency because I haven't got a clue what your master plan entails. So you "want Biden to be senile precisely because (you) I think Trump is so dangerous". Sorry mate, not a Scooby Doo.
That's because you can't read.
Edit: to make your life easier here is the point again
I was greatly cheered by Bidens poor showing and I will tell you why. He is almost guaranteed to be incontrovertibly demented by November and to lose, so I want him demented by August and replaced by someone who might beat Trump. But easier if you put me down as a Trumpster.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
I suspect the exit poll will show a big Labour majority but then we all assume that anyway.
Where I think it will struggle is in predicting the relative Tory, LD and Reform seats; this election is too unusual for that.
It's clear that psephology is struggling both with % and with turning that into seats, and then with the fact that in the end so many are marginal/subject to tactical voting. It won't be dull.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
It doesn't matter how many times the exit poll gets it almost spot on, it's not the result itself, and if it doesn't match people's expectations then people will still doubt it until confirmed by the early results.
Even if the exit poll matches my prediction exactly I'm not going to trust it. I find so many reasons to doubt the extent of the Tory defeat.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
EC is looking a bit unrealistic on seat numbers for really quite unimpressive Lab and LD vote shares. You can take Lib Dems down to 9% and it still has them winning 50+ seats. Ain’t happening.
Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.
Wonderful imagery for the Dems.
That being so, the voters are going to hate convicted felon candidate Donald J. Trump.
They already do.
And that, frankly, is why I think most of what is going on at the moment is noise. Did the debate look bad? Yes. Did it make any significant shifts in the polls? No. Is Trump winning where he needs to? At best he's neck and neck, and he tends to underperform his polling.
I'm also not altogether sure the Supreme Court giving absolute power to a convicted criminal who boasts about wanting to be a dictator is going to play quite as well in swing states as they and he seem to think it will.
I hope you are right. Some of the more enthusiastic Trumpsters on here are nonetheless greatly cheered by Biden's poor display last week.
Joe's memory isn't what it was, but it would appear he doesn't require a lifetime supply of adult Pampers. Apparently the aroma around the defendant in that New York courtroom was reminiscent of eau de decomposing squirrel.
Did none of that strike you as at all infantile while you were typing it? How funny actually is incontinence in the elderly? Did Biden really show nothing worse than memory deficit in that debate?
I was greatly cheered by Bidens poor showing and I will tell you why. He is almost guaranteed to be incontrovertibly demented by November and to lose, so I want him demented by August and replaced by someone who might beat Trump. But easier if you put me down as a Trumpster.
Well I touched a nerve there.
Yes it is infantile and it might be disingenuous to those unfortunate enough to have lost control of their functions. My father finished his days with a stoma, so under normal circumstances I would not jest about such a serious matter. The gentleman in question however claims personal perfection so any point which punctures his inflated ego is fine by me.
As has been mentioned by others on here FDR was in terminal decline, and Reagan in the later stages of dementia during their later years in office. So the situation of a declining Biden might be sub optimal but it is not something that hasn't been dealt with before.
A completely mad narcissistic psychopathic Putin apologist with severe age related mental impairment, surrounded by bad actors, would be far, far more dangerous than sleepy Joe.
Ah yes the old Say something twattish, get told it is twattish, play the I touched a nerve there routine. Well played.
Your routine is literally Your man poos in his pants and smells of wee; you think there's some sort of clever meta spin on that, but there is not. Re-read what I wrote and try to understand that I welcome Biden's deterioration precisely because I hate Trump.
Also I wouldn't bet more than buttons against biden having continence issues.
Sadly, my medically qualified friend has identified exactly that with some of Biden’s stranger postures
What Father Ted meant when he described something as an ecumenical matter was that it was a quasi-political matter for the Vatican and hence separate from his responsibilities and above his paygrade as a parish priest, or in simpler terms, an easy way of ending the conversation or changing the subject. I suspect most practising Roman Catholics will have understood it as such.
It was Father Jack and what he meant was "Feck" "Arse" or "Girls" but he was behaving himself.
Until he had had enough and impaled one of the Bishops.....
A question we haven't discussed much recently. This is the first general election since voter ID came in. So we know little or nothing about the effects. Only the keen vote at other elections.
3 Questions: Will a significant number of older mainly working class voters without passports and things simply stay away rather than be embarrassed by the system which might decline their bingo club membership card (I wouldn't blame them).
Will many younger voters (and middle aged non passport, non driving licence urban types?) stay away/be refused for the same thing?
Will a serious number of people not know about it.
I wasn’t even asked for ID in the locals. I suspect many polling clerks will accept a polling card. But we’ll see.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
That is another very reasonable guess.
Regardless of what the actual result is, it is extraordinary that people *bullish* about Tory numbers are seeing 120-150 as some kind of triumph. It's like the people who behaved as if Corbyn had actually won because he didn't lose as badly as predicted.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
EC is looking a bit unrealistic on seat numbers for really quite unimpressive Lab and LD vote shares. You can take Lib Dems down to 9% and it still has them winning 50+ seats. Ain’t happening.
That's because the Tory vote is just about halving. There must be quite a bunch of seats that the Tories lose as a result.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
The exit poll should be good on NEV, but I am not at all convinced it is going to be close on the minor party seats, and this will carry through to the Tory total as well. The opportunity for punters is probably calling the seat totals based on early results, before the TV forecasts catch up
Now I know universal swing is derided as being overly simplistic for such a large change, and both Baxter and the MRPs suggest a bigger swing than UNS would, but it's worth noting 39% Labour 24% Tories (15 % REF, 12% LD, 6% GR) under UNS as per the three polls tonight gives the following for national parties, with comparisons to Baxter:
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I think we might see also something fun on the night, like the Lib Dems being a fraction behind the Tories in seats in the exit poll, and then ending up marginally ahead once the results are done.
EDIT: Just realised the above seat totals gives a hilarious incentive for the Reform Tory merger...
I think "something fun" on the night is a dead cert (betting wise I mean. Obviously there'll be loads of fun watching history etc). No idea what otherwise I'd be on it. But the most obvious is definitely something to do with the exit poll. Unfortunately as to whether that's a duff exit poll or a crazy sounding exit poll that turns out to be right.... .... who knows.
Definitely gonna be alive here. Just haven't decided yet if I'm gonna stay sober and bet like a maniac or get hammered and enjoy the fun. Maybe both.
Greens getting one of those two rural seats would be a big turn up.
Lib Dems winning Hallam another.
Labour losing to Corbyn or somewhere else with an independent / WPGB / Reform candidate
Some weird result on the IoW like Reform winning one of the seats.
One or two ultra safe Tory seats going on a by-election level of swing, while other much closer ones are holds.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
Well quite. MrEd/MisterBedfordshire is weirdo Trumpian trollcaster who knows very little about psephology. Hence his now legendary ‘tip’ for Trump to carry VA in Potus 2020, which Trump lost by 11 points.
I'm not Mr Ed. I stopped posting in 2016 until recently
I also don't go round insulting other posters.
Insulting other posters including me because you disagree with their posts says more about you than you intended to reveal.
Now I know universal swing is derided as being overly simplistic for such a large change, and both Baxter and the MRPs suggest a bigger swing than UNS would, but it's worth noting 39% Labour 24% Tories (15 % REF, 12% LD, 6% GR) under UNS as per the three polls tonight gives the following for national parties, with comparisons to Baxter:
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.
Wonderful imagery for the Dems.
That being so, the voters are going to hate convicted felon candidate Donald J. Trump.
They already do.
And that, frankly, is why I think most of what is going on at the moment is noise. Did the debate look bad? Yes. Did it make any significant shifts in the polls? No. Is Trump winning where he needs to? At best he's neck and neck, and he tends to underperform his polling.
I'm also not altogether sure the Supreme Court giving absolute power to a convicted criminal who boasts about wanting to be a dictator is going to play quite as well in swing states as they and he seem to think it will.
I hope you are right. Some of the more enthusiastic Trumpsters on here are nonetheless greatly cheered by Biden's poor display last week.
Joe's memory isn't what it was, but it would appear he doesn't require a lifetime supply of adult Pampers. Apparently the aroma around the defendant in that New York courtroom was reminiscent of eau de decomposing squirrel.
Did none of that strike you as at all infantile while you were typing it? How funny actually is incontinence in the elderly? Did Biden really show nothing worse than memory deficit in that debate?
I was greatly cheered by Bidens poor showing and I will tell you why. He is almost guaranteed to be incontrovertibly demented by November and to lose, so I want him demented by August and replaced by someone who might beat Trump. But easier if you put me down as a Trumpster.
Well I touched a nerve there.
Yes it is infantile and it might be disingenuous to those unfortunate enough to have lost control of their functions. My father finished his days with a stoma, so under normal circumstances I would not jest about such a serious matter. The gentleman in question however claims personal perfection so any point which punctures his inflated ego is fine by me.
As has been mentioned by others on here FDR was in terminal decline, and Reagan in the later stages of dementia during their later years in office. So the situation of a declining Biden might be sub optimal but it is not something that hasn't been dealt with before.
A completely mad narcissistic psychopathic Putin apologist with severe age related mental impairment, surrounded by bad actors, would be far, far more dangerous than sleepy Joe.
Ah yes the old Say something twattish, get told it is twattish, play the I touched a nerve there routine. Well played.
Your routine is literally Your man poos in his pants and smells of wee; you think there's some sort of clever meta spin on that, but there is not. Re-read what I wrote and try to understand that I welcome Biden's deterioration precisely because I hate Trump.
Also I wouldn't bet more than buttons against biden having continence issues.
If I wasn't I might make the mistake of believing Trump to be less dangerous than he appears.
Yes. Again, and for the last time, I want Biden to be senile precisely because I think Trump is so dangerous. It's impossible to overstate how straightforward this point is and I am genuinely sorry to hear you are not drunk, because I can't even offer you the consolation of sobriety tomorrow.
You may have a point about my cogency because I haven't got a clue what your master plan entails. So you "want Biden to be senile precisely because (you) I think Trump is so dangerous". Sorry mate, not a Scooby Doo.
That's because you can't read.
Edit: to make your life easier here is the point again
I was greatly cheered by Bidens poor showing and I will tell you why. He is almost guaranteed to be incontrovertibly demented by November and to lose, so I want him demented by August and replaced by someone who might beat Trump. But easier if you put me down as a Trumpster.
Well thanks for clearing that up. I am not entirely sure your master plan is flaw free.
There has been a steady drift downwards in Labour's vote since the campaign began
I suspect the earlier shift was mainly Labour supporters switching to Lib Dems tactically as they realise that is the best way to defeat the Tory locally.
If this later drift to Greens, Reform and Others (Galloway the independents probably) is happening the significance will depend on which constituencies the voters are in. If the changes are taking place in safe Labour seats where people believe Labour are home and dry then all it will do is simply dent the Labour majorities.
My bet is on Labour's vote being incredibly efficient this year and can see them winning 400+ seats with 36-39% of the vote.
Also @Tweedledee since you're online - shame I went for the parachuting rather than the bungee! My heuristic was which would make me piss myself less...
Yes phew nearly had a heart attack when I saw the photo, could have been him before his parachute opened. I would have laid bungee jump at the same price, my guess is they are about equally risky
So @Roger, who constantly derides the awful racist Brits and who tells us “the French will never vote for the Far Right” actually lives in a corner of France which is about as Far Right as it gets, and more than half of his neighbours support Le pen
Weirdly, in his post election commentary, he has not mentioned this, perhaps he hasn’t noticed
I presume man of the people Rog doesn't associate with such horrid types in his social circle. I imagine his gathering are rather Glastonbury crowd -esque, all in their walled compounds safely away from the riff raff.
Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.
Wonderful imagery for the Dems.
That being so, the voters are going to hate convicted felon candidate Donald J. Trump.
They already do.
And that, frankly, is why I think most of what is going on at the moment is noise. Did the debate look bad? Yes. Did it make any significant shifts in the polls? No. Is Trump winning where he needs to? At best he's neck and neck, and he tends to underperform his polling.
I'm also not altogether sure the Supreme Court giving absolute power to a convicted criminal who boasts about wanting to be a dictator is going to play quite as well in swing states as they and he seem to think it will.
I hope you are right. Some of the more enthusiastic Trumpsters on here are nonetheless greatly cheered by Biden's poor display last week.
Joe's memory isn't what it was, but it would appear he doesn't require a lifetime supply of adult Pampers. Apparently the aroma around the defendant in that New York courtroom was reminiscent of eau de decomposing squirrel.
Did none of that strike you as at all infantile while you were typing it? How funny actually is incontinence in the elderly? Did Biden really show nothing worse than memory deficit in that debate?
I was greatly cheered by Bidens poor showing and I will tell you why. He is almost guaranteed to be incontrovertibly demented by November and to lose, so I want him demented by August and replaced by someone who might beat Trump. But easier if you put me down as a Trumpster.
Well I touched a nerve there.
Yes it is infantile and it might be disingenuous to those unfortunate enough to have lost control of their functions. My father finished his days with a stoma, so under normal circumstances I would not jest about such a serious matter. The gentleman in question however claims personal perfection so any point which punctures his inflated ego is fine by me.
As has been mentioned by others on here FDR was in terminal decline, and Reagan in the later stages of dementia during their later years in office. So the situation of a declining Biden might be sub optimal but it is not something that hasn't been dealt with before.
A completely mad narcissistic psychopathic Putin apologist with severe age related mental impairment, surrounded by bad actors, would be far, far more dangerous than sleepy Joe.
Ah yes the old Say something twattish, get told it is twattish, play the I touched a nerve there routine. Well played.
Your routine is literally Your man poos in his pants and smells of wee; you think there's some sort of clever meta spin on that, but there is not. Re-read what I wrote and try to understand that I welcome Biden's deterioration precisely because I hate Trump.
Also I wouldn't bet more than buttons against biden having continence issues.
If I wasn't I might make the mistake of believing Trump to be less dangerous than he appears.
Yes. Again, and for the last time, I want Biden to be senile precisely because I think Trump is so dangerous. It's impossible to overstate how straightforward this point is and I am genuinely sorry to hear you are not drunk, because I can't even offer you the consolation of sobriety tomorrow.
You may have a point about my cogency because I haven't got a clue what your master plan entails. So you "want Biden to be senile precisely because (you) I think Trump is so dangerous". Sorry mate, not a Scooby Doo.
That's because you can't read.
Edit: to make your life easier here is the point again
I was greatly cheered by Bidens poor showing and I will tell you why. He is almost guaranteed to be incontrovertibly demented by November and to lose, so I want him demented by August and replaced by someone who might beat Trump. But easier if you put me down as a Trumpster.
A demented Biden is more likely to beat Trump than a fully functioning Harris or Newsom
I really wouldn't like to predict anything other than:
Labour will be largest Party.
Turnout is liable to be passable.
Thursdays weather is largely dry (showers in far North England and Scotland) but not excessively warm, so liable to encourage turnout.
We might have to do the whole thing again in a month if the remaining Postal Ballots didn't turn up today.
Do we actually have hard evidence that weather plays a massive role in GE turn-out? I can see it for council elections, but the big one? Does a bit of rain really put people off going 2 minutes down the road in their car to vote?
At this stage in 2017, am I right in thinking that some, polls had picked up the surge in the Corbyn vote, but this time the polls are pretty static, and are probably settling on Labour 38% Tories 25%
Of the 19 polls conducted over the past week, just four had Labour on 38 or below, and the Tories reached 25 or above in only one.
It's perfectly reasonable to hope for some movement in the next few days, but over the past week the gap has averaged 17.8 points rather than the 13 that you suggest.
While this may be true, it’s also true that Tory votes are almost always higher than the polls.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
I suspect the exit poll will show a big Labour majority but then we all assume that anyway.
Where I think it will struggle is in predicting the relative Tory, LD and Reform seats; this election is too unusual for that.
That may be so. But it's interesting that while the MRPs show quite a large range for the Labour majority and the Tory total, they mostly agree quite closely on the Lib Dem and Reform figures. So in a sense we might expect there to be only about one degree of freedom, despite the multi-party nature of the elections. Unless all the MRPs are wrong, of course.
At this stage in 2017, am I right in thinking that some, polls had picked up the surge in the Corbyn vote, but this time the polls are pretty static, and are probably settling on Labour 38% Tories 25%
Of the 19 polls conducted over the past week, just four had Labour on 38 or below, and the Tories reached 25 or above in only one.
It's perfectly reasonable to hope for some movement in the next few days, but over the past week the gap has averaged 17.8 points rather than the 13 that you suggest.
While this may be true, it’s also true that Tory votes are almost always higher than the polls.
The general rule of thumb have always been take the lowest Labour score and the highest Tory score, and you won't be far off.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
EC is looking a bit unrealistic on seat numbers for really quite unimpressive Lab and LD vote shares. You can take Lib Dems down to 9% and it still has them winning 50+ seats. Ain’t happening.
I’m glad someone has noted this. It feels like the latest Baxter model is very weighted towards very low Tory/very high Labour and LD seats. And also a relatively high REF seat count where I’m not convinced their vote is that efficient.
I get the fundamentals of the election are likely to favour opposition parties vs the Tories - I just think the weighting is a bit heavy.
I’m adding around 20-30 Tory seats when I see something Baxtered in my head, just to filter out some of that effect. Do I think I’m right? Dunno. But that’s my gut.
I really wouldn't like to predict anything other than:
Labour will be largest Party.
Turnout is liable to be passable.
Thursdays weather is largely dry (showers in far North England and Scotland) but not excessively warm, so liable to encourage turnout.
We might have to do the whole thing again in a month if the remaining Postal Ballots didn't turn up today.
Do we actually have hard evidence that weather plays a massive role in GE turn-out? I can see it for council elections, but the big one? Does a bit of rain really put people off going 2 minutes down the road in their car to vote?
It just doesn't sound plausible to me. Like the idea turnout would be less in Winter, when whilst turnout was down in 2019 it was still higher than every GE bar one since 2001.
Meaning maybe it affects things to a small degree, but would we know when other factors drive turnout up?
I've been expecting record low turnout this time, but some expect high turnout - I don't know if that is based on registration or something else.
If Sunak hadn't screwed up the start of the campaign, then no Farage, and assuming they wouldn't have gone all Wooden Toys policy of National Service to counter it, the Tories probably get 30% and lose by single digits.
Some reports suggest that the biggest supporter of Senile Joe not withdrawing is Hunter Biden.
Wonderful imagery for the Dems.
That being so, the voters are going to hate convicted felon candidate Donald J. Trump.
They already do.
And that, frankly, is why I think most of what is going on at the moment is noise. Did the debate look bad? Yes. Did it make any significant shifts in the polls? No. Is Trump winning where he needs to? At best he's neck and neck, and he tends to underperform his polling.
I'm also not altogether sure the Supreme Court giving absolute power to a convicted criminal who boasts about wanting to be a dictator is going to play quite as well in swing states as they and he seem to think it will.
I hope you are right. Some of the more enthusiastic Trumpsters on here are nonetheless greatly cheered by Biden's poor display last week.
Joe's memory isn't what it was, but it would appear he doesn't require a lifetime supply of adult Pampers. Apparently the aroma around the defendant in that New York courtroom was reminiscent of eau de decomposing squirrel.
Did none of that strike you as at all infantile while you were typing it? How funny actually is incontinence in the elderly? Did Biden really show nothing worse than memory deficit in that debate?
I was greatly cheered by Bidens poor showing and I will tell you why. He is almost guaranteed to be incontrovertibly demented by November and to lose, so I want him demented by August and replaced by someone who might beat Trump. But easier if you put me down as a Trumpster.
Well I touched a nerve there.
Yes it is infantile and it might be disingenuous to those unfortunate enough to have lost control of their functions. My father finished his days with a stoma, so under normal circumstances I would not jest about such a serious matter. The gentleman in question however claims personal perfection so any point which punctures his inflated ego is fine by me.
As has been mentioned by others on here FDR was in terminal decline, and Reagan in the later stages of dementia during their later years in office. So the situation of a declining Biden might be sub optimal but it is not something that hasn't been dealt with before.
A completely mad narcissistic psychopathic Putin apologist with severe age related mental impairment, surrounded by bad actors, would be far, far more dangerous than sleepy Joe.
Ah yes the old Say something twattish, get told it is twattish, play the I touched a nerve there routine. Well played.
Your routine is literally Your man poos in his pants and smells of wee; you think there's some sort of clever meta spin on that, but there is not. Re-read what I wrote and try to understand that I welcome Biden's deterioration precisely because I hate Trump.
Also I wouldn't bet more than buttons against biden having continence issues.
If I wasn't I might make the mistake of believing Trump to be less dangerous than he appears.
Yes. Again, and for the last time, I want Biden to be senile precisely because I think Trump is so dangerous. It's impossible to overstate how straightforward this point is and I am genuinely sorry to hear you are not drunk, because I can't even offer you the consolation of sobriety tomorrow.
You may have a point about my cogency because I haven't got a clue what your master plan entails. So you "want Biden to be senile precisely because (you) I think Trump is so dangerous". Sorry mate, not a Scooby Doo.
That's because you can't read.
Edit: to make your life easier here is the point again
I was greatly cheered by Bidens poor showing and I will tell you why. He is almost guaranteed to be incontrovertibly demented by November and to lose, so I want him demented by August and replaced by someone who might beat Trump. But easier if you put me down as a Trumpster.
A demented Biden is more likely to beat Trump than a fully functioning Harris or Newsom
That may be so, and I hope it is, since that is the contest we're getting.
There has been a steady drift downwards in Labour's vote since the campaign began
I suspect the earlier shift was mainly Labour supporters switching to Lib Dems tactically as they realise that is the best way to defeat the Tory locally.
If this later drift to Greens, Reform and Others (Galloway the independents probably) is happening the significance will depend on which constituencies the voters are in. If the changes are taking place in safe Labour seats where people believe Labour are home and dry then all it will do is simply dent the Labour majorities.
My bet is on Labour's vote being incredibly efficient this year and can see them winning 400+ seats with 36-39% of the vote.
Personally I have said from day 1 that Lab will get 36/37
I reckon that looks better by the day
If the Tories hadn't run the worst campaign since IDS could have been a tiny SKS Maj rather than the 3 figure one he is still on target to get
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
Well quite. MrEd/MisterBedfordshire is weirdo Trumpian trollcaster who knows very little about psephology. Hence his now legendary ‘tip’ for Trump to carry VA in Potus 2020, which Trump lost by 11 points.
I'm not Mr Ed. I stopped posting in 2016 until recently
I also don't go round insulting other posters.
Insulting other posters including me because you disagree with their posts says more about you than you intended to reveal.
Happy to take you word for it but your posts are uncannily similar to his and then there's the MrEd/MisterBedfordshire name similarity.
Still remember enjoying a good few beers with Mr Ed at the last PB gathering, shame he got himself banned.
A question we haven't discussed much recently. This is the first general election since voter ID came in. So we know little or nothing about the effects. Only the keen vote at other elections.
3 Questions: Will a significant number of older mainly working class voters without passports and things simply stay away rather than be embarrassed by the system which might decline their bingo club membership card (I wouldn't blame them).
Will many younger voters (and middle aged non passport, non driving licence urban types?) stay away/be refused for the same thing?
Will a serious number of people not know about it.
I wasn’t even asked for ID in the locals. I suspect many polling clerks will accept a polling card. But we’ll see.
Which is how I would have the system. Polling card or prove you are who you say you are. Thus no irate people who somehow have no valid photo ID in the modern age as they can just keep and use the polling card.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
I'm amazed there's not been a lot more of it already. As bad as morale has been, people have tried to retain some dignity and wait for the result before starting the civil war.
France vs Belgium were no great shakes this afternoon and were poor in the group games, Portugal are struggling to break down Slovenia. Is it between Spain and Germany?
Need to be very cautious as we've just had polls from more Con friendly pollsters and it may look different once other pollsters publish their next polls.
But as it looks right now, Con now trending upwards and Reform trending downwards. Lab trending downwards but only very marginally.
Over the whole campaign, Lab is actually down quite a bit more than Con - although of course Con had much less to lose. Movements over the campaign:
Lab - start 45, now 40 Con - start 24, now 22 Reform - start 11, now 15 Lib Dems - start 9, now 11 Green start - 5.5, now 5.5
I really wouldn't like to predict anything other than:
Labour will be largest Party.
Turnout is liable to be passable.
Thursdays weather is largely dry (showers in far North England and Scotland) but not excessively warm, so liable to encourage turnout.
We might have to do the whole thing again in a month if the remaining Postal Ballots didn't turn up today.
Do we actually have hard evidence that weather plays a massive role in GE turn-out? I can see it for council elections, but the big one? Does a bit of rain really put people off going 2 minutes down the road in their car to vote?
The question is not even that. It's does it *differentially* put them off? I don't see it. The theory back in the 70s was shit weather helped Con because they were stern and dutiful where Lab were feckless and lazy. Also probably because Con had cars and Lab did not.
What with postal votes and post-scarcity car ownership I don't think it matters at all.
A question we haven't discussed much recently. This is the first general election since voter ID came in. So we know little or nothing about the effects. Only the keen vote at other elections.
3 Questions: Will a significant number of older mainly working class voters without passports and things simply stay away rather than be embarrassed by the system which might decline their bingo club membership card (I wouldn't blame them).
Will many younger voters (and middle aged non passport, non driving licence urban types?) stay away/be refused for the same thing?
Will a serious number of people not know about it.
I wasn’t even asked for ID in the locals. I suspect many polling clerks will accept a polling card. But we’ll see.
I sort of hope so too, but then you think of the nice folks at the polling station - and they are - and then some abomination of a jobsworth will go an make trouble for them if they turn a blind eye to a little old lady who has forgotten her bus pass and wants to vote for that nice Mr Whitelaw (of blessed memory in Penrith and Border) or an 18 year old who has been shafted by the discrimination in the ID rules. The perils of modernity.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
I'm amazed there's not been a lot more of it already. As bad as morale has been, people have tried to retain some dignity and wait for the result before starting the civil war.
France vs Belgium were no great shakes this afternoon and were poor in the group games, Portugal are struggling to break down Slovenia. Is it between Spain and Germany?
Of course it could just be that Slovenia are not that bad a side. Long unbeaten run, for a start.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
Are there any left?
A Tory Big Beast is any MP you haven't heard of but is now critical of the leadership. A Tory Grandee is an MP you have heard of and is now critical of the leadership.
"Nope" is massively overrated. Would not watch if I had my time again.
After Get Out Jordan Peele's films have been overrated. I'd rate Us above Nope though, which was all over the place.
Someone I know who is really into films told me it was a metaphor for the filmaking industry, and that's one of my red flags for something being overrated, if not shit, if it is true. Hollywood loves films about Hollywood.
France vs Belgium were no great shakes this afternoon and were poor in the group games, Portugal are struggling to break down Slovenia. Is it between Spain and Germany?
Of course it could just be that Slovenia are not that bad a side. Long unbeaten run, for a start.
In the modern age, truly bad sides are few and far between . Most nations in Europe at least have a starting 11 that have most of their players at a club in a top 5-6 league, meaning they are well coached, fit and tactically aware.
But the top teams can still have enough extra ability to break them down.
France vs Belgium were no great shakes this afternoon and were poor in the group games, Portugal are struggling to break down Slovenia. Is it between Spain and Germany?
Slovenia are currently unbeaten in the Euros of course.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
I'm amazed there's not been a lot more of it already. As bad as morale has been, people have tried to retain some dignity and wait for the result before starting the civil war.
I thought this was about the USA for a moment...
They are far ahead there in terms of rejecting democratic outcomes and justifying political violence.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
Are there any left?
A Tory Big Beast is any MP you haven't heard of but is now critical of the leadership. A Tory Grandee is an MP you have heard of and is now critical of the leadership.
A question we haven't discussed much recently. This is the first general election since voter ID came in. So we know little or nothing about the effects. Only the keen vote at other elections.
3 Questions: Will a significant number of older mainly working class voters without passports and things simply stay away rather than be embarrassed by the system which might decline their bingo club membership card (I wouldn't blame them).
Will many younger voters (and middle aged non passport, non driving licence urban types?) stay away/be refused for the same thing?
Will a serious number of people not know about it.
Since plenty of senior citizen ID is accepted - e.g. bus passes, blue badges, senior citizens' cards - the answer seems likely to be 'no' on the first question.
The second one is more plausible and does indeed seem to have been the idea in what passes for Braverman's mind at the time.
I really wouldn't like to predict anything other than:
Labour will be largest Party.
Turnout is liable to be passable.
Thursdays weather is largely dry (showers in far North England and Scotland) but not excessively warm, so liable to encourage turnout.
We might have to do the whole thing again in a month if the remaining Postal Ballots didn't turn up today.
Do we actually have hard evidence that weather plays a massive role in GE turn-out? I can see it for council elections, but the big one? Does a bit of rain really put people off going 2 minutes down the road in their car to vote?
Not everyone has a car. Plenty of young folk don't. And the oldies will often have used postals.
France vs Belgium were no great shakes this afternoon and were poor in the group games, Portugal are struggling to break down Slovenia. Is it between Spain and Germany?
France vs Belgium were no great shakes this afternoon and were poor in the group games, Portugal are struggling to break down Slovenia. Is it between Spain and Germany?
Of course it could just be that Slovenia are not that bad a side. Long unbeaten run, for a start.
In the modern age, truly bad sides are few and far between . Most nations in Europe at least have a starting 11 that have most of their players at a club in a top 5-6 league.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
Are there any left?
A Tory Big Beast is any MP you haven't heard of but is now critical of the leadership. A Tory Grandee is an MP you have heard of and is now critical of the leadership.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
Are there any left?
A Tory Big Beast is any MP you haven't heard of but is now critical of the leadership. A Tory Grandee is an MP you have heard of and is now critical of the leadership.
A Senior Tory MP is any Tory MP.
I particularly like 'Senior Backbench MP', which I think is code for 'old fossil who never got anywhere' (diligent constituency MPs who never cared for the limelight don't get the 'senior' label).
France vs Belgium were no great shakes this afternoon and were poor in the group games, Portugal are struggling to break down Slovenia. Is it between Spain and Germany?
The judge in my latest case today decided we had to start again. Deeply frustrating because the case will now run to the end of the week and beyond making a late election night impossible. I will go home on Friday and vote at 7 on Thursday but it will be an early night for me 😞
Comments
Labour 40% 460 seats.
Tory 23% 70 seats.
LD ahead of Tories? - touch and go.
Further polling awaited.
Whoever wins this election is supposed to be president until January 2029.
There's no way either should seriously be considered as a candidate.
Democratic National Committee is considering formally nominating Biden as early as mid-July to ensure that the president is on November ballots, while helping to stamp out intra-party chatter of replacing him after his poor debate performance, @MarioDParker and @gregorykorte report.
A potential date for Biden’s nomination is July 21, when the Dem convention’s credentials committee meets virtually. The panel is meeting to finalize procedures before the convention in Chicago starts Aug. 19.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
https://x.com/jenniferjjacobs/status/1807856813985128738?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
If I wasn't I might make the mistake of believing Trump to be less dangerous than he appears.
And it is working.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
So, a pleasing we are both right verdict
3 Questions: Will a significant number of older mainly working class voters without passports and things simply stay away rather than be embarrassed by the system which might decline their bingo club membership card (I wouldn't blame them).
Will many younger voters (and middle aged non passport, non driving licence urban types?) stay away/be refused for the same thing?
Will a serious number of people not know about it.
Labour .................. 39%
Conservative ......... 23%
LibDems .............. 12%
Reform ................ 14%
Greens ................ 6%
SNP ..................... 3%
Others ................. 3%
TOTAL ................ 100%
Baxtered Seats in HoC:
Labour ............... 453
Conservative ....... 83
LibDems .............. 68
Reform ................ 5
Greens ................. 3
SNP ..................... 15
Others ................. 5
Sub-Total ........... 632
N.I ...................... 18
TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
Unfortunately this election he’s called seems to be his Invasion of Russia. I’ve just read Zamoyski’s superb biography of Napoleon and the echoes are profound. When Napoleon said he was going to invade Russia everyone thought he was bluffing, as there seemed no obvious reason for it, and not much to be gained and it could easily be a disaster. Then he went and did it and everybody sat back waiting for his secret 9D chess plan to reveal itself, but there wasn’t one. The invasion was a disaster
Cf Macron’s Big Election Gamble. A disaster
Slogan: it’s time for a change
This is because the bid/offer spreads are so large. If you were making the market you could make a killing. Cause there's been plenty of oscillation.
I really, really, REALLY want a peer to peer spreads exchange, where I can get inside the spread.
(FWIW I am long Labour at 402, I also shorted Lib Dems at 57 and exited that position at 58, or maybe it was 56 and 57, 1 seat loss anyway)
What Father Ted meant when he described something as an ecumenical matter was that it was a quasi-political matter for the Vatican and hence separate from his responsibilities and above his paygrade as a parish priest, or in simpler terms, an easy way of ending the conversation or changing the subject. I suspect most practising Roman Catholics will have understood it as such.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
You name it, Labour will tax it.
https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1807842443133411585
How about "Prime Ministerial Lies?"
Where I think it will struggle is in predicting the relative Tory, LD and Reform seats; this election is too unusual for that.
Definitely gonna be alive here. Just haven't decided yet if I'm gonna stay sober and bet like a maniac or get hammered and enjoy the fun. Maybe both.
Edit: to make your life easier here is the point again
I was greatly cheered by Bidens poor showing and I will tell you why. He is almost guaranteed to be incontrovertibly demented by November and to lose, so I want him demented by August and replaced by someone who might beat Trump. But easier if you put me down as a Trumpster.
Even if the exit poll matches my prediction exactly I'm not going to trust it. I find so many reasons to doubt the extent of the Tory defeat.
Until he had had enough and impaled one of the Bishops.....
Regardless of what the actual result is, it is extraordinary that people *bullish* about Tory numbers are seeing 120-150 as some kind of triumph. It's like the people who behaved as if Corbyn had actually won because he didn't lose as badly as predicted.
Lab: 381 (vs 444)
Tories: 190 (vs 93)
Lib Dems: 42 (vs 67)
Greens: 1 (vs 3)
Reform: 0 (vs 5)
Now that would be much more like a 'normal' election result than is currently seen as favourite.
I don't offer the above as a prediction, but as a note of caution. The result is highly uncertain and sensitive to where the large swings happen.
Just over 3 days to find out with greater certainty.
Lib Dems winning Hallam another.
Labour losing to Corbyn or somewhere else with an independent / WPGB / Reform candidate
Some weird result on the IoW like Reform winning one of the seats.
One or two ultra safe Tory seats going on a by-election level of swing, while other much closer ones are holds.
I also don't go round insulting other posters.
Insulting other posters including me because you disagree with their posts says more about you than you intended to reveal.
I suspect the earlier shift was mainly Labour supporters switching to Lib Dems tactically as they realise that is the best way to defeat the Tory locally.
If this later drift to Greens, Reform and Others (Galloway the independents probably) is happening the significance will depend on which constituencies the voters are in. If the changes are taking place in safe Labour seats where people believe Labour are home and dry then all it will do is simply dent the Labour majorities.
My bet is on Labour's vote being incredibly efficient this year and can see them winning 400+ seats with 36-39% of the vote.
Anyway, tea leaves baxtercasting:
lab 430ish
con 100ish
ld 60ish
rfm 8 to 10
grn 2 or 3
scotch 20ish
NI 18
sundries 5 or 6
Who knows what tomorrow will bring?
JL Partners also has Reform taking from Labour as well as the Tories which is a newer development and more like the pattern for UKIP in 2015
Labour will be largest Party.
Turnout is liable to be passable.
Thursdays weather is largely dry (showers in far North England and Scotland) but not excessively warm, so liable to encourage turnout.
We might have to do the whole thing again in a month if the remaining Postal Ballots didn't turn up today.
I get the fundamentals of the election are likely to favour opposition parties vs the Tories - I just think the weighting is a bit heavy.
I’m adding around 20-30 Tory seats when I see something Baxtered in my head, just to filter out some of that effect. Do I think I’m right? Dunno. But that’s my gut.
Meaning maybe it affects things to a small degree, but would we know when other factors drive turnout up?
I've been expecting record low turnout this time, but some expect high turnout - I don't know if that is based on registration or something else.
I reckon that looks better by the day
If the Tories hadn't run the worst campaign since IDS could have been a tiny SKS Maj rather than the 3 figure one he is still on target to get
Still remember enjoying a good few beers with Mr Ed at the last PB gathering, shame he got himself banned.
Need to be very cautious as we've just had polls from more Con friendly pollsters and it may look different once other pollsters publish their next polls.
But as it looks right now, Con now trending upwards and Reform trending downwards. Lab trending downwards but only very marginally.
Over the whole campaign, Lab is actually down quite a bit more than Con - although of course Con had much less to lose. Movements over the campaign:
Lab - start 45, now 40
Con - start 24, now 22
Reform - start 11, now 15
Lib Dems - start 9, now 11
Green start - 5.5, now 5.5
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4826157#Comment_4826157
What with postal votes and post-scarcity car ownership I don't think it matters at all.
Someone I know who is really into films told me it was a metaphor for the filmaking industry, and that's one of my red flags for something being overrated, if not shit, if it is true. Hollywood loves films about Hollywood.
But the top teams can still have enough extra ability to break them down.
The second one is more plausible and does indeed seem to have been the idea in what passes for Braverman's mind at the time.
I reckon the YG MRP will have Lab at 35 with Tories anywhere between 19 to 23 so a 16pt lead or a 12 pt lead
Lets see if i am right.
Easiest money on offer all election was the Lab to get less than 12.877m votes that Jezza got in 2017 at 8/1