I really wouldn't like to predict anything other than:
Labour will be largest Party.
Turnout is liable to be passable.
Thursdays weather is largely dry (showers in far North England and Scotland) but not excessively warm, so liable to encourage turnout.
We might have to do the whole thing again in a month if the remaining Postal Ballots didn't turn up today.
Do we actually have hard evidence that weather plays a massive role in GE turn-out? I can see it for council elections, but the big one? Does a bit of rain really put people off going 2 minutes down the road in their car to vote?
It just doesn't sound plausible to me. Like the idea turnout would be less in Winter, when whilst turnout was down in 2019 it was still higher than every GE bar one since 2001.
Meaning maybe it affects things to a small degree, but would we know when other factors drive turnout up?
I've been expecting record low turnout this time, but some expect high turnout - I don't know if that is based on registration or something else.
Studies have been done.
"Abstract Ostensibly random and trivial experiences of everyday life, e.g., local weather, can have significant political consequences. First, we present a comprehensive meta-analysis of 34 studies of electoral turnout and rainfall – the vast majority demonstrating a negative association. Secondly, we present a new analysis of a voter panel with validated turnout for a complete electorate merged with fine-grained meteorological observations to show that Election Day rainfall reduces turnout by 0.95 percentage points per centimeter, while more sunshine increases turnout. Marginal voters (young voters) are up to six times more susceptible to bad weather and respond more positively to pleasant weather."
France vs Belgium were no great shakes this afternoon and were poor in the group games, Portugal are struggling to break down Slovenia. Is it between Spain and Germany?
Spain play Germany in the next round
That was my point.
Southgate really has got an incredibly easy draw, all the other big sides knocking each other out, Italy and Belgium already gone
I really wouldn't like to predict anything other than:
Labour will be largest Party.
Turnout is liable to be passable.
Thursdays weather is largely dry (showers in far North England and Scotland) but not excessively warm, so liable to encourage turnout.
We might have to do the whole thing again in a month if the remaining Postal Ballots didn't turn up today.
Do we actually have hard evidence that weather plays a massive role in GE turn-out? I can see it for council elections, but the big one? Does a bit of rain really put people off going 2 minutes down the road in their car to vote?
Not everyone has a car. Plenty of young folk don't. And the oldies will often have used postals.
Obviously. Young folk are also more likely to live in urban setting with public transport. One good thing in the UK we have is that polling stations are rarely far from where people live (yes somebody in Scotland is going to tell me they had to travel some silly distance). It isn't like US, where in some places they make it deliberately different to vote.
Will you stay on as party leader? "That would be an ecumenical matter"
I once replied "That is an Ecumenical matter" to a particularly sensitive question in a very tense client meeting.
Everyone fell around laughing and it was left at that.
I have no idea what it even means in that context. Is this some Sir Humphrey Speak amongst washed-up politicians?
What he actually means is: "That's for the arse brigade" ie the rump Tory MPs.
In religious context, "The adjective ecumenical is . . . applied to any non-denominational initiative that encourages greater cooperation and union among Christian denominations and churches." (wikipedia)
SO in a political context, is Rishi Sunak referring to potential post-election effort to unite what's gonna be left of CUP with like-minded right-wingers leading, supporting and FUNDING the Faragists?
It also refers to official universal decisions of the church, the Ecumenical Councils. There are none of these universally accepted since the 7th century (some think earlier) because of course the church divides as soon as any decision is made.
However Father Jack may be referring to the Roman habit of declaring all its councils 'ecumenical' on the simple belief that in the Roman church subsists the entire of the true church, so he may be referring not to Nicaea or Chalcedon but to novelties like the Lateran Councils, Trent or Vatican II, which last occurred but yesterday in church time. That's the one which made singing 'Kumbaya' compulsory.
------------------- Quotes borked. I start here:
I don't think I see the Ecumenical Council reference in a British sitcom for a British audience - an Irish one maybe, unless it was an in joke or Easter Egg.
No British general audience has any knowledge to speak of about religion, so humour consists in stroking stereotypes, and similarly for press coverage.
............. Algarkirk restarts here:
We do our jokes dry round here.
Tdee starts here:
Fun sponging fact: Hē Oikoumenē [gē] in Greek means the inhabited earth, the whole world. So an ecumenical council is an international one.
Mattw restarts here.
Heh. I perhaps have the sort of books in my library that made me not see it. Oikoumene is another word in the lexicon .
What Father Ted meant when he described something as an ecumenical matter was that it was a quasi-political matter for the Vatican and hence separate from his responsibilities and above his paygrade as a parish priest, or in simpler terms, an easy way of ending the conversation or changing the subject. I suspect most practising Roman Catholics will have understood it as such.
It was Father Jack and what he meant was "Feck" "Arse" or "Girls" but he was behaving himself.
Until he had had enough and impaled one of the Bishops.....
It was Father Ted who trained Father Jack to sputter "that's an ecumenical matter!" in response to ANY query by ANY bishop, or any Irish Roman Catholic bishop anyway.
Still good answer when stuck for one in theological and/or clerical company.
I really wouldn't like to predict anything other than:
Labour will be largest Party.
Turnout is liable to be passable.
Thursdays weather is largely dry (showers in far North England and Scotland) but not excessively warm, so liable to encourage turnout.
We might have to do the whole thing again in a month if the remaining Postal Ballots didn't turn up today.
Do we actually have hard evidence that weather plays a massive role in GE turn-out? I can see it for council elections, but the big one? Does a bit of rain really put people off going 2 minutes down the road in their car to vote?
It just doesn't sound plausible to me. Like the idea turnout would be less in Winter, when whilst turnout was down in 2019 it was still higher than every GE bar one since 2001.
Meaning maybe it affects things to a small degree, but would we know when other factors drive turnout up?
I've been expecting record low turnout this time, but some expect high turnout - I don't know if that is based on registration or something else.
Studies have been done.
"Abstract Ostensibly random and trivial experiences of everyday life, e.g., local weather, can have significant political consequences. First, we present a comprehensive meta-analysis of 34 studies of electoral turnout and rainfall – the vast majority demonstrating a negative association. Secondly, we present a new analysis of a voter panel with validated turnout for a complete electorate merged with fine-grained meteorological observations to show that Election Day rainfall reduces turnout by 0.95 percentage points per centimeter, while more sunshine increases turnout. Marginal voters (young voters) are up to six times more susceptible to bad weather and respond more positively to pleasant weather."
I am a little bit concerned they have jammed together elections from very different countries there. I can definitely see it having an effect in the US for instance, where you have to travel a long way to a polling station and stand outside for ages.
The voting experience in the US compared to UK is chalk and cheese. You hardly ever have to wait significant to vote in UK (unless you are one of those idiots who turns up at 9.55pm), where as the US they are queuing for hours and hours in some places (they get their like its Black Friday sales).
Need to be very cautious as we've just had polls from more Con friendly pollsters and it may look different once other pollsters publish their next polls.
But as it looks right now, Con now trending upwards and Reform trending downwards. Lab trending downwards but only very marginally.
Over the whole campaign, Lab is actually down quite a bit more than Con - although of course Con had much less to lose. Movements over the campaign:
Lab - start 45, now 40 Con - start 24, now 22 Reform - start 11, now 15 Lib Dems - start 9, now 11 Green start - 5.5, now 5.5
They've not yet made up the spare room for Captain and Mrs Fuck-Up, which is important, and it's been wholly sufficient given what they've faced. But I worry Labour HQ will get the impression they have the golden touch, when actually they've done quite poorly in selling Starmer to the public. They could learn a lot from the Lib Dems, who've done a much better job on a fraction of the budget and exposure.
"The party should have been given far more scrutiny during the election campaign. Its policies on education, wealth creation and public-sector management are naive and sometimes dangerous."
The judge in my latest case today decided we had to start again. Deeply frustrating because the case will now run to the end of the week and beyond making a late election night impossible. I will go home on Friday and vote at 7 on Thursday but it will be an early night for me 😞
That sounds like a quick turnaround in which you meet yourself coming back. Perhaps I have misread it.
(Election night is one in which I am pleased to be retired).
The judge in my latest case today decided we had to start again. Deeply frustrating because the case will now run to the end of the week and beyond making a late election night impossible. I will go home on Friday and vote at 7 on Thursday but it will be an early night for me 😞
You can "restart" cases that quickly in Scotland? Or is it that you're now expeceted in the office instead?
(This might be a completely impossible question to answer in your circumstances due to doxxing n that, in which case please instead answer by a link to an interesting youtube video)
A question we haven't discussed much recently. This is the first general election since voter ID came in. So we know little or nothing about the effects. Only the keen vote at other elections.
3 Questions: Will a significant number of older mainly working class voters without passports and things simply stay away rather than be embarrassed by the system which might decline their bingo club membership card (I wouldn't blame them).
Will many younger voters (and middle aged non passport, non driving licence urban types?) stay away/be refused for the same thing?
Will a serious number of people not know about it.
My mum did a postal vote. Had she not done so she would have been turned away from the polling station as she does not have an acceptable form of photo ID.
Real big brain energy from the Slovenian fans there - letting off flares from which the smoke has reduced their own goalkeeper's field of vision to around a metre
I reckon the YG MRP will have Lab at 35 with Tories anywhere between 19 to 23 so a 16pt lead or a 12 pt lead
Lets see if i am right.
Easiest money on offer all election was the Lab to get less than 12.877m votes that Jezza got in 2017 at 8/1
It doesn't work like that.
If Starmer gets fewer votes than Corbyn and loses the election to Sunak you have a point. If Starmer gets a lower percentage number than Corbyn but nonetheless achieves a majority he wins. Corbyn's performance in 2017 under these circumstances is inconsequential.
"The party should have been given far more scrutiny during the election campaign. Its policies on education, wealth creation and public-sector management are naive and sometimes dangerous."
The media don't seem interested in doing so for any of the parties. Paul Johnson made that point the other day. And all the oxygen has been sucked out of it by Sunak being a twat and Farage doing his thing. Farage to the media is like moth to light bulbs.
I reckon the YG MRP will have Lab at 35 with Tories anywhere between 19 to 23 so a 16pt lead or a 12 pt lead
Lets see if i am right.
Easiest money on offer all election was the Lab to get less than 12.877m votes that Jezza got in 2017 at 8/1
How much did you put on?
£125
now 8/11 - I got on £10 very early at 8/1 as i had a hunch the odds were incorrect but needed your post to convince myself and quickly added another £30 before it was pulled down by skybet
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
This feels about right to me. Although a split LibDem/Lab vote will result in a few more Tory seats saved. I think the Greens may do slightly better than 4%, Labour slightly less than 39%. Tories more or less where you have them.
I think you’re right about the Reform vote being very reluctant to return to the mother ship this time. They’re seething.
I reckon the YG MRP will have Lab at 35 with Tories anywhere between 19 to 23 so a 16pt lead or a 12 pt lead
Lets see if i am right.
Easiest money on offer all election was the Lab to get less than 12.877m votes that Jezza got in 2017 at 8/1
It doesn't work like that.
If Starmer gets fewer votes than Corbyn and loses the election to Sunak you have a point. If Starmer gets a lower percentage number than Corbyn but nonetheless achieves a majority he wins. Corbyn's performance in 2017 under these circumstances is inconsequential.
It works like that with SKYBET I get a 4figure win
"The party should have been given far more scrutiny during the election campaign. Its policies on education, wealth creation and public-sector management are naive and sometimes dangerous."
Has Bloomberg tried winning an election in the UK? The parties have been given tons of scrutiny. Has he heard of IFS? Andrew Neil? The Economist? All the scrutiny agrees that nothing adds up for any party. No amount of scrutiny however compels anyone to answer a question.
"The party should have been given far more scrutiny during the election campaign. Its policies on education, wealth creation and public-sector management are naive and sometimes dangerous."
Has Bloomberg tried winning an election in the UK? The parties have been given tons of scrutiny. Has he heard of IFS? Andrew Neil? The Economist? All the scrutiny agrees that nothing adds up for any party. No amount of scrutiny however compels anyone to answer a question.
Its code for "Labour winning is not necessarily conducive to our vested interests"
On France, I think it’s foolish of the other parties to form grand and contorted coalitions to thwart the FN. The best strategy is to let them govern. Give them the rope and let them hang themselves. If they’re anything like the populist British right they’ll fragment in no time at all.
On France, I think it’s foolish of the other parties to form grand and contorted coalitions to thwart the FN. The best strategy is to let them govern. Give them the rope and let them hang themselves. If they’re anything like the populist British right they’ll fragment in no time at all.
All the horse trading and jiggery pokery, isn't that just how the French system always is?
I have now backed Reform at all prices to get <13.99%.
My best result is 6-7.99%.
I have a bet on 0 seats at 10 (extremely thin market, have to feed these in). I think it's a value loser, but value nonetheless.
Essentially it's a bet on a polling issue (which seems deeply plausible given polling not great with reform - a delta of 1 point on 13 is twice the significance of 1 point on 26... I hope these terms are correct, well they're probably not cause I made them up)
Also I had to html encode the < in your quote so don't expect too many other replies unless this is a commonly known issue, cause the error message was totally unhelpful!
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
Well quite. MrEd/MisterBedfordshire is weirdo Trumpian trollcaster who knows very little about psephology. Hence his now legendary ‘tip’ for Trump to carry VA in Potus 2020, which Trump lost by 11 points.
I'm not Mr Ed. I stopped posting in 2016 until recently
I also don't go round insulting other posters.
Insulting other posters including me because you disagree with their posts says more about you than you intended to reveal.
Happy to take you word for it but your posts are uncannily similar to his and then there's the MrEd/MisterBedfordshire name similarity.
Still remember enjoying a good few beers with Mr Ed at the last PB gathering, shame he got himself banned.
Just tried to find some of his posts and failed.
Discovered on the way that both TGOHF and Stewart Dixon got the ban hammer too.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
I am increasingly optimistic about the LD seat tally. The party has been pretty consistent damping down expectations - until the weekend. Now? there are obviously enough canvassing returns to get their hopes up about us reaching further down that list of c. 100 seats where we're starting in 2nd.
Remember that shrill Tory cry - don't give Starmer a Supermajority!!!! That empowers people to vote LibDem where we are the challenger. Its NOT a vote for a Supermajority, so people can vote to demolish the Tories in good conscience, with the blessing of the Tories!
On France, I think it’s foolish of the other parties to form grand and contorted coalitions to thwart the FN. The best strategy is to let them govern. Give them the rope and let them hang themselves. If they’re anything like the populist British right they’ll fragment in no time at all.
All the horse trading and jiggery pokery, isn't that just how the French system always is?
But it feels a bit different when lots of smaller parties (some of them evil or mad) are all conspiring to keep the most popular party out of power. That’s not very democratic is it?
At some point you have to accept that this is the will of the people and allow the RN a shot, indeed the longer you suppress this the worst it gets
Cf the UK and Brexit, which could have so easily been avoided with an earlier referendum on Maastricht or Lisbon, but the establishment conspired to ignore the people
Calvados, 5th district (Bayeau and environs) CANDIDATES QUALIFIED FOR THE SECOND ROUND (source le Monde) Philippe CHAPRON RN 21,001 - 31.86 % Bertrand BOUYX Hor.-Ensemble 16,208 - 24.59 % Thomas DUPONT-FEDERICI Gen.-NFP [WITHDR.] 16,124 - 24.46 %
SSI - Note that Left candidate in 3rd-place by just +84 votes has withdrawn, giving 2nd-place Macrony a good chance of prevailing over the Rightist.
Somehow doubt that Rishi Sunak's presence OR absence had much impact on the good (& bad) voters of Calvados. Santé!
I reckon the YG MRP will have Lab at 35 with Tories anywhere between 19 to 23 so a 16pt lead or a 12 pt lead
Lets see if i am right.
Easiest money on offer all election was the Lab to get less than 12.877m votes that Jezza got in 2017 at 8/1
It doesn't work like that.
If Starmer gets fewer votes than Corbyn and loses the election to Sunak you have a point. If Starmer gets a lower percentage number than Corbyn but nonetheless achieves a majority he wins. Corbyn's performance in 2017 under these circumstances is inconsequential.
It works like that with SKYBET I get a 4figure win
I think it's a great punt if you win. It was the specific Corbyn did better than Starmer that I question should your figures transpire.
There has been a steady drift downwards in Labour's vote since the campaign began
I suspect the earlier shift was mainly Labour supporters switching to Lib Dems tactically as they realise that is the best way to defeat the Tory locally.
If this later drift to Greens, Reform and Others (Galloway the independents probably) is happening the significance will depend on which constituencies the voters are in. If the changes are taking place in safe Labour seats where people believe Labour are home and dry then all it will do is simply dent the Labour majorities.
My bet is on Labour's vote being incredibly efficient this year and can see them winning 400+ seats with 36-39% of the vote.
Personally I have said from day 1 that Lab will get 36/37
I reckon that looks better by the day
If the Tories hadn't run the worst campaign since IDS could have been a tiny SKS Maj rather than the 3 figure one he is still on target to get
I don't agree. There were plenty of voters prepared to vote Starmer to get rid of the Tories as the polls have showed ever since the Johnson/Truss debacles.
The drift away has only really happened after every poll was indicating that Labour were going to win by a massive landslide. If the Tories had closed the gap significantly during the campaign the Labour vote would have climbed back to 45%+
The polls have never wavered from a large Labour majority and I believe that is what we are going to get on Thursday. Something your guy Corbyn could only ever dream of.
"The party should have been given far more scrutiny during the election campaign. Its policies on education, wealth creation and public-sector management are naive and sometimes dangerous."
The media don't seem interested in doing so for any of the parties. Paul Johnson made that point the other day. And all the oxygen has been sucked out of it by Sunak being a twat and Farage doing his thing. Farage to the media is like moth to light bulbs.
The media have done it to an extent but waste a lot of readers' bandwidth tearing the minor parties to shreds. Who cares if Reform's budget, or anyone's who is scrapping for double figures in seats, would crash the bond markets? The media also lose credibility by going over the top in describing the horrors of a Labour government whose most radical policy is to hire a fraction of a new teacher for each school.
On France, I think it’s foolish of the other parties to form grand and contorted coalitions to thwart the FN. The best strategy is to let them govern. Give them the rope and let them hang themselves. If they’re anything like the populist British right they’ll fragment in no time at all.
All the horse trading and jiggery pokery, isn't that just how the French system always is?
But it feels a bit different when lots of smaller parties (some of them evil or mad) are all conspiring to keep the most popular party out of power. That’s not very democratic is it?
At some point you have to accept that this is the will of the people and allow the RN a shot, indeed the longer you suppress this the worst it gets
Cf the UK and Brexit, which could have so easily been avoided with an earlier referendum on Maastricht or Lisbon, but the establishment conspired to ignore the people
No, but the French are different e.g. totally normal to have a bit of a riot after your party didn't do so well.
We won't be getting that here on Friday. There will be some excitement, some shrugging and everybody will potter off to work as normal. Same as Boris winning in 2019.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
Are there any left?
A Tory Big Beast is any MP you haven't heard of but is now critical of the leadership. A Tory Grandee is an MP you have heard of and is now critical of the leadership.
A Senior Tory MP is any Tory MP.
I particularly like 'Senior Backbench MP', which I think is code for 'old fossil who never got anywhere' (diligent constituency MPs who never cared for the limelight don't get the 'senior' label).
Oh, they all get the "senior" label when it matters. "Tory MP gets penis trapped in letterbox" isn't news. "Senior Tory MP gets penis trapped in letterbox" is news. First rule of journalism.
Now I know universal swing is derided as being overly simplistic for such a large change, and both Baxter and the MRPs suggest a bigger swing than UNS would, but it's worth noting 39% Labour 24% Tories (15 % REF, 12% LD, 6% GR) under UNS as per the three polls tonight gives the following for national parties, with comparisons to Baxter:
Now that would be much more like a 'normal' election result than is currently seen as favourite.
I don't offer the above as a prediction, but as a note of caution. The result is highly uncertain and sensitive to where the large swings happen.
Just over 3 days to find out with greater certainty.
Anything close to that would now be regarded as a 'steady as she goes' result and the salvation of the Tory cause - and brilliant expectation management. Funny old world.
I reckon the YG MRP will have Lab at 35 with Tories anywhere between 19 to 23 so a 16pt lead or a 12 pt lead
Lets see if i am right.
Easiest money on offer all election was the Lab to get less than 12.877m votes that Jezza got in 2017 at 8/1
It doesn't work like that.
If Starmer gets fewer votes than Corbyn and loses the election to Sunak you have a point. If Starmer gets a lower percentage number than Corbyn but nonetheless achieves a majority he wins. Corbyn's performance in 2017 under these circumstances is inconsequential.
Maybe you forget this is supposed to be a political BETTING site -admittedly we have more "activist" posts these days
France vs Belgium were no great shakes this afternoon and were poor in the group games, Portugal are struggling to break down Slovenia. Is it between Spain and Germany?
Slovenia could and probably should be 1-0 up were it not for their striker mistaking the corner flag for the far post.
"The party should have been given far more scrutiny during the election campaign. Its policies on education, wealth creation and public-sector management are naive and sometimes dangerous."
Has Bloomberg tried winning an election in the UK? The parties have been given tons of scrutiny. Has he heard of IFS? Andrew Neil? The Economist? All the scrutiny agrees that nothing adds up for any party. No amount of scrutiny however compels anyone to answer a question.
Its code for "Labour winning is not necessarily conducive to our vested interests"
The author or was is an Economist employee. He's probably doesn't hate Labour generally - just the left of it.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
Are there any left?
A Tory Big Beast is any MP you haven't heard of but is now critical of the leadership. A Tory Grandee is an MP you have heard of and is now critical of the leadership.
A Senior Tory MP is any Tory MP.
Whereas A Tory MP is someone who is about to be suspended for excessive interest in tractors.
"The party should have been given far more scrutiny during the election campaign. Its policies on education, wealth creation and public-sector management are naive and sometimes dangerous."
The media don't seem interested in doing so for any of the parties. Paul Johnson made that point the other day. And all the oxygen has been sucked out of it by Sunak being a twat and Farage doing his thing. Farage to the media is like moth to light bulbs.
The media have done it to an extent but waste a lot of readers' bandwidth tearing the minor parties to shreds. Who cares if Reform's budget, or anyone's who is scrapping for double figures in seats, would crash the bond markets? The media also lose credibility by going over the top in describing the horrors of a Labour government whose most radical policy is to hire a fraction of a new teacher for each school.
Focus on Labour policies has been a narrow; private school VAT and asking them at every turn, this tax, you going to increase this one, no plans, next....IFS bod was saying well the numbers don't add up for Tory or Labour, so something has to happen. But we are back to chicks with dicks use which toilet type gotcha nonsense today.
France vs Belgium were no great shakes this afternoon and were poor in the group games, Portugal are struggling to break down Slovenia. Is it between Spain and Germany?
Slovenia could and probably be 1-0 up were it not for their striker mistaking the corner flag for the far post.
The more sensible Dems desperately need half a dozen of these polls so they cannot ignore the danger, and they act to replace Biden
Because a clearly senile Biden is going to LOSE this election
I know this is bloody obvious, but it seems they still don’t quite get it
“The more sensible Dems” pretty well by definition isn’t enough.
Unless Biden steps aside voluntarily, or can be persuaded/pressured to do so, it requires a majority of delegates to the convention to decide to pick someone else. And they were picked for the reliability of their votes in favour of Biden.
At some point you have to accept that this is the will of the people and allow the RN a shot, indeed the longer you suppress this the worst it gets
Cf the UK and Brexit, which could have so easily been avoided with an earlier referendum on Maastricht or Lisbon, but the establishment conspired to ignore the people
Sort of why I feel bad for the stick Macron has taken for calling the election in the first place.
Yes he miscalculated on the ultimate result and there was almost certainly hubris involved, but not a great look for democracy to take a kicking from a significant chunk of the electorate in one election and say "well, probably should avoid another election as long as possible".
Heck, Tories took a kicking in the local council elections here and no-one thought "yes but the best democratic response is to delay the GE till the last possible moment", even if they thought it was the best thing for the Conservative party itself to do.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
Are there any left?
A Tory Big Beast is any MP you haven't heard of but is now critical of the leadership. A Tory Grandee is an MP you have heard of and is now critical of the leadership.
A Senior Tory MP is any Tory MP.
Whereas A Tory MP is someone who is about to be suspended for excessive interest in tractors.
That tractor story came up at the hustings I attended. I think it was one of the Indy candidates explaining why they'd be trustworthy in Parliament.
A question we haven't discussed much recently. This is the first general election since voter ID came in. So we know little or nothing about the effects. Only the keen vote at other elections.
3 Questions: Will a significant number of older mainly working class voters without passports and things simply stay away rather than be embarrassed by the system which might decline their bingo club membership card (I wouldn't blame them).
Will many younger voters (and middle aged non passport, non driving licence urban types?) stay away/be refused for the same thing?
Will a serious number of people not know about it.
I wasn’t even asked for ID in the locals. I suspect many polling clerks will accept a polling card. But we’ll see.
I sort of hope so too, but then you think of the nice folks at the polling station - and they are - and then some abomination of a jobsworth will go an make trouble for them if they turn a blind eye to a little old lady who has forgotten her bus pass and wants to vote for that nice Mr Whitelaw (of blessed memory in Penrith and Border) or an 18 year old who has been shafted by the discrimination in the ID rules. The perils of modernity.
What exactly could they do to them? They are all volunteers aren’t they? Refuse them any more custard creams?
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
My top 10 realistic hopes for the evening:
Losses for Farage, Truss, Mercer, Kawczynski, 30pLee, Bradley, Galloway, Hands, Holden, Ross. Braverman would be the icing on the cake but I can’t see it.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
Are there any left?
A Tory Big Beast is any MP you haven't heard of but is now critical of the leadership. A Tory Grandee is an MP you have heard of and is now critical of the leadership.
A Senior Tory MP is any Tory MP.
Whereas A Tory MP is someone who is about to be suspended for excessive interest in tractors.
"First they came for the moat-dredgers. Then they came for the tractor-fanciers. Now they're coming for . . ."
I reckon the YG MRP will have Lab at 35 with Tories anywhere between 19 to 23 so a 16pt lead or a 12 pt lead
Lets see if i am right.
Easiest money on offer all election was the Lab to get less than 12.877m votes that Jezza got in 2017 at 8/1
It doesn't work like that.
If Starmer gets fewer votes than Corbyn and loses the election to Sunak you have a point. If Starmer gets a lower percentage number than Corbyn but nonetheless achieves a majority he wins. Corbyn's performance in 2017 under these circumstances is inconsequential.
Maybe you forget this is supposed to be a political BETTING site -admittedly we have more "activist" posts these days
I think it's a great bet, but BJO's narrative behind the bet is rubbish.
The more sensible Dems desperately need half a dozen of these polls so they cannot ignore the danger, and they act to replace Biden
Because a clearly senile Biden is going to LOSE this election
I know this is bloody obvious, but it seems they still don’t quite get it
“The more sensible Dems” pretty well by definition isn’t enough.
Unless Biden steps aside voluntarily, or can be persuaded/pressured to do so, it requires a majority of delegates to the convention to decide to pick someone else. And they were picked for the reliability of their votes in favour of Biden.
If enough poor polls come in then Obama, Schummer and co can head to WH to have a little chat I think.
This is quite a poor Euros. A lot of boring low scoring games, and a lack of superstar skills
All the best players seem subdued. Knackered?
The first few games weren't bad. Been downhill since. At least England have the consolation that it's not just them that have been boring and very disappointing.
I really wouldn't like to predict anything other than:
Labour will be largest Party.
Turnout is liable to be passable.
Thursdays weather is largely dry (showers in far North England and Scotland) but not excessively warm, so liable to encourage turnout.
We might have to do the whole thing again in a month if the remaining Postal Ballots didn't turn up today.
Do we actually have hard evidence that weather plays a massive role in GE turn-out? I can see it for council elections, but the big one? Does a bit of rain really put people off going 2 minutes down the road in their car to vote?
Not everyone has a car. Plenty of young folk don't. And the oldies will often have used postals.
There is much irrationality about local travel choices.
One of the most common Pfaffer-quips about riding a cycle is "But .. but .. but .. what about the RAIN in winter?"
Even something as blunt as "Don't you wear a coat when you walk the %^&*($ dog in November ?!! " often does not penetrate.
This is quite a poor Euros. A lot of boring low scoring games, and a lack of superstar skills
All the best players seem subdued. Knackered?
The first few games weren't bad. Been downhill since. At least England have the consolation that it's not just them that have been boring and very disappointing.
There a levels...France / Belgium were poor, but were miles better than England i.e. they actually had some shots at the goal thing.
The thing is that the Presidential debate is fresh in everyone's mind so is influencing polls taken now. But will it drop out by the election date? Though Biden would have to avoid any debates during the final few weeks.
It's a bit like Sunak leaving D-Day. We'll have to see what happens but if (what appears) to be the trend of the last few days continues it's entirely possible that D-Day won't have actually had any discernable impact on the final result.
ie People furious with D-Day, polls show a reaction, but by election day it's faded enough that people vote on their own "first principles" and it doesn't impact actual votes.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
Are there any left?
A Tory Big Beast is any MP you haven't heard of but is now critical of the leadership. A Tory Grandee is an MP you have heard of and is now critical of the leadership.
A Senior Tory MP is any Tory MP.
I particularly like 'Senior Backbench MP', which I think is code for 'old fossil who never got anywhere' (diligent constituency MPs who never cared for the limelight don't get the 'senior' label).
Oh, they all get the "senior" label when it matters. "Tory MP gets penis trapped in letterbox" isn't news. "Senior Tory MP gets penis trapped in letterbox" is news. First rule of journalism.
"Tory MP gets senior penis trapped in letterbox" "Tory MP gets penis trapped in senior letterbox"
Some variants there, if any MP wants to oblige the tabloids.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
My top 10 realistic hopes for the evening:
Losses for Farage, Truss, Mercer, Kawczynski, 30pLee, Bradley, Galloway, Hands, Holden, Ross. Braverman would be the icing on the cake but I can’t see it.
On the contrary I think Farage and Galloway winning would be good for parliament to stop it being a closed talking shop for establishment types
I am increasingly optimistic about the LD seat tally. The party has been pretty consistent damping down expectations - until the weekend. Now? there are obviously enough canvassing returns to get their hopes up about us reaching further down that list of c. 100 seats where we're starting in 2nd.
Remember that shrill Tory cry - don't give Starmer a Supermajority!!!! That empowers people to vote LibDem where we are the challenger. Its NOT a vote for a Supermajority, so people can vote to demolish the Tories in good conscience, with the blessing of the Tories!
Conversely, I'm growing less optimistic about the LD seat tally. It's so hard for them to break through (albeit not as hard as for Reform or the Greens), and when they get weak in an area they seem to nearly disappear, so I'm not sure if they can get the kind of momentum outside of key targets that a large return woudl require.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
My top 10 realistic hopes for the evening:
Losses for Farage, Truss, Mercer, Kawczynski, 30pLee, Bradley, Galloway, Hands, Holden, Ross. Braverman would be the icing on the cake but I can’t see it.
On the contrary I think Farage and Galloway winning would be good for parliament to stop it being a closed talking shop for establishment types
I disagree on that being the reason, but I'd be happy to see either of them in there.
The more sensible Dems desperately need half a dozen of these polls so they cannot ignore the danger, and they act to replace Biden
Because a clearly senile Biden is going to LOSE this election
I know this is bloody obvious, but it seems they still don’t quite get it
“The more sensible Dems” pretty well by definition isn’t enough.
Unless Biden steps aside voluntarily, or can be persuaded/pressured to do so, it requires a majority of delegates to the convention to decide to pick someone else. And they were picked for the reliability of their votes in favour of Biden.
If enough poor polls come in then Obama, Schummer and co can head to WH to have a little chat I think.
There was more than enough reason to replace Biden last Friday, but after today it is paramount that Trump is defeated and that means no matter how difficult it is the Democrats must appoint the most viable candidate to beat Trump.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
I doubt Sunderland South will be indicative of much at all. But we have now covered this endlessly.
It’ll get the pundits excited though because they’ll take the swing and start applying that via UNS to the total seats.
Something has to pass the time from 11pm until a big cluster of seats are declared around 1-2am.
Cutting to a Tory grandee weeping only gets you so far, though maybe we'll get something like Alan Johnson chewing out that Corbynite chap like last time.
How many seconds after ten o'clock will it be before Conservative Big Beasts start tearing chunks out of each other?
Are there any left?
A Tory Big Beast is any MP you haven't heard of but is now critical of the leadership. A Tory Grandee is an MP you have heard of and is now critical of the leadership.
A Senior Tory MP is any Tory MP.
Whereas A Tory MP is someone who is about to be suspended for excessive interest in tractors.
"First they came for the moat-dredgers. Then they came for the tractor-fanciers. Now they're coming for . . ."
The best named "Can I have your Vote, I have a moat?" candidate I know of was the Lib Dem April Pond. 2009. Norwich North by-election.
This is quite a poor Euros. A lot of boring low scoring games, and a lack of superstar skills
All the best players seem subdued. Knackered?
The first few games weren't bad. Been downhill since. At least England have the consolation that it's not just them that have been boring and very disappointing.
It’s fucking painful
This is meant to be a great showpiece for the sport, 2nd only to the World Cup, but this is dreadful
Not helped by the fact the last World Cup was fantastic, and ended with THAT final
And now this? Maybe it will perk up as we hit the Quarters
The thing is that the Presidential debate is fresh in everyone's mind so is influencing polls taken now. But will it drop out by the election date? Though Biden would have to avoid any debates during the final few weeks.
It's a bit like Sunak leaving D-Day. We'll have to see what happens but if (what appears) to be the trend of the last few days continues it's entirely possible that D-Day won't have actually had any discernable impact on the final result.
ie People furious with D-Day, polls show a reaction, but by election day it's faded enough that people vote on their own "first principles" and it doesn't impact actual votes.
Sunak leaving D-Day may say something of his character but is it quite the same as the Biden situation?
One goes to character. The other goes to concerns about whether the most powerful man in the world is actually capable of doing his job.
The other thing is the Democrats have another 5 months of this to go through. Can they get Biden through the campaign without him casting any further doubts? Given how frequently these moments seem to be coming now, surely not.
I am increasingly optimistic about the LD seat tally. The party has been pretty consistent damping down expectations - until the weekend. Now? there are obviously enough canvassing returns to get their hopes up about us reaching further down that list of c. 100 seats where we're starting in 2nd.
Remember that shrill Tory cry - don't give Starmer a Supermajority!!!! That empowers people to vote LibDem where we are the challenger. Its NOT a vote for a Supermajority, so people can vote to demolish the Tories in good conscience, with the blessing of the Tories!
Conversely, I'm growing less optimistic about the LD seat tally. It's so hard for them to break through (albeit not as hard as for Reform or the Greens), and when they get weak in an area they seem to nearly disappear, so I'm not sure if they can get the kind of momentum outside of key targets that a large return woudl require.
I’m in a seat where they historically did well, collapsed post coalition and are making a big effort again this time. South Shropshire. I expect a strong second and would not be 100% shocked if they took it. They’ll be getting my vote. I think they’ll easily beat the 1997 total.
A question we haven't discussed much recently. This is the first general election since voter ID came in. So we know little or nothing about the effects. Only the keen vote at other elections.
3 Questions: Will a significant number of older mainly working class voters without passports and things simply stay away rather than be embarrassed by the system which might decline their bingo club membership card (I wouldn't blame them).
Will many younger voters (and middle aged non passport, non driving licence urban types?) stay away/be refused for the same thing?
Will a serious number of people not know about it.
I wasn’t even asked for ID in the locals. I suspect many polling clerks will accept a polling card. But we’ll see.
I sort of hope so too, but then you think of the nice folks at the polling station - and they are - and then some abomination of a jobsworth will go an make trouble for them if they turn a blind eye to a little old lady who has forgotten her bus pass and wants to vote for that nice Mr Whitelaw (of blessed memory in Penrith and Border) or an 18 year old who has been shafted by the discrimination in the ID rules. The perils of modernity.
What exactly could they do to them? They are all volunteers aren’t they? Refuse them any more custard creams?
I thought we established yesterday they are not volunteers? Even if they are your point is a bad one. The retired spanners who work entirely voluntarily for the National Trust are forever whining and threatening to strike over pay 'n: conditions but with the pay bit left out.
I believe the polls in this election have not been correct. We will find out on Friday.
The unusual choices the voters are making must be making life hard for them.
Would account for the lack of herding.
We will know either way when Sunderland South comes in
Sunderland South is hardly representative of all the other seats.
I'd say we won't really know until we start seeing a few LD target seats too: Harrogate & Knaresborough at c. 01:45, maybe not until Cheltenham and Eastleigh around 03:00.
Do people not think the exit poll will give at least a rough idea of which category the result is in?
Well quite. MrEd/MisterBedfordshire is weirdo Trumpian trollcaster who knows very little about psephology. Hence his now legendary ‘tip’ for Trump to carry VA in Potus 2020, which Trump lost by 11 points.
I'm not Mr Ed. I stopped posting in 2016 until recently
I also don't go round insulting other posters.
Insulting other posters including me because you disagree with their posts says more about you than you intended to reveal.
Happy to take you word for it but your posts are uncannily similar to his and then there's the MrEd/MisterBedfordshire name similarity.
Still remember enjoying a good few beers with Mr Ed at the last PB gathering, shame he got himself banned.
Just tried to find some of his posts and failed.
Discovered on the way that both TGOHF and Stewart Dixon got the ban hammer too.
@StuartDickson is the Scottish subsampler of PB legend. He had to spend several years in exile on CaledonianCrosssection.com as I recall.
I have now backed Reform at all prices to get <13.99%.
My best result is 6-7.99%.
I have a bet on 0 seats at 10 (extremely thin market, have to feed these in). I think it's a value loser, but value nonetheless.
Essentially it's a bet on a polling issue (which seems deeply plausible given polling not great with reform - a delta of 1 point on 13 is twice the significance of 1 point on 26... I hope these terms are correct, well they're probably not cause I made them up)
Also I had to html encode the < in your quote so don't expect too many other replies unless this is a commonly known issue, cause the error message was totally unhelpful!
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
My top 10 realistic hopes for the evening:
Losses for Farage, Truss, Mercer, Kawczynski, 30pLee, Bradley, Galloway, Hands, Holden, Ross. Braverman would be the icing on the cake but I can’t see it.
On the contrary I think Farage and Galloway winning would be good for parliament to stop it being a closed talking shop for establishment types
The idea that Farage isn’t an establishment type is one for the birds. I mean he whined that his account at Coutts was refused. Man of the people my arse!
The more sensible Dems desperately need half a dozen of these polls so they cannot ignore the danger, and they act to replace Biden
Because a clearly senile Biden is going to LOSE this election
I know this is bloody obvious, but it seems they still don’t quite get it
“The more sensible Dems” pretty well by definition isn’t enough.
Unless Biden steps aside voluntarily, or can be persuaded/pressured to do so, it requires a majority of delegates to the convention to decide to pick someone else. And they were picked for the reliability of their votes in favour of Biden.
Think you overstate situation re: Biden national convention delegates. While his campaign does have rights re: his pledged delegates, the degree of control is hardly a grip of iron. Ditto sanctions under state law (zero under federal) for delegates violating pledges to vote for candidates at conventions.
A question we haven't discussed much recently. This is the first general election since voter ID came in. So we know little or nothing about the effects. Only the keen vote at other elections.
3 Questions: Will a significant number of older mainly working class voters without passports and things simply stay away rather than be embarrassed by the system which might decline their bingo club membership card (I wouldn't blame them).
Will many younger voters (and middle aged non passport, non driving licence urban types?) stay away/be refused for the same thing?
Will a serious number of people not know about it.
I wasn’t even asked for ID in the locals. I suspect many polling clerks will accept a polling card. But we’ll see.
I sort of hope so too, but then you think of the nice folks at the polling station - and they are - and then some abomination of a jobsworth will go an make trouble for them if they turn a blind eye to a little old lady who has forgotten her bus pass and wants to vote for that nice Mr Whitelaw (of blessed memory in Penrith and Border) or an 18 year old who has been shafted by the discrimination in the ID rules. The perils of modernity.
What exactly could they do to them? They are all volunteers aren’t they? Refuse them any more custard creams?
It is worth remembering however that Trump had clear leads over Biden in NH as late as May 2020, although admittedly by July he had fallen well behind.
France vs Belgium were no great shakes this afternoon and were poor in the group games, Portugal are struggling to break down Slovenia. Is it between Spain and Germany?
Spain play Germany in the next round
That was my point.
Southgate really has got an incredibly easy draw, all the other big sides knocking each other out, Italy and Belgium already gone
You do realise that if you win the cup you will have to keep Southgate for another four years.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
My top 10 realistic hopes for the evening:
Losses for Farage, Truss, Mercer, Kawczynski, 30pLee, Bradley, Galloway, Hands, Holden, Ross. Braverman would be the icing on the cake but I can’t see it.
On the contrary I think Farage and Galloway winning would be good for parliament to stop it being a closed talking shop for establishment types
Ben Bradley for Mansfield is interesting. His odds are a quite steep on 11/2 vs Labour as low as 1/10.
This is quite a poor Euros. A lot of boring low scoring games, and a lack of superstar skills
All the best players seem subdued. Knackered?
The first few games weren't bad. Been downhill since. At least England have the consolation that it's not just them that have been boring and very disappointing.
There a levels...France / Belgium were poor, but were miles better than England i.e. they actually had some shots at the goal thing.
Although England scored two good goals and Belgium scored zero and France only an own goal. I think I preferred Jude’s Late Drama.
I can't believe that the Lib Dems are still 150/1 in East Wiltshire
Kruger should be odds on favourite, but not 1/10. I reckon 1/5 to 1/4 would be more like it
Lab should not be second favourite. Their odds of around 6/1 are even more out than Kruger's. They should be about 25/1
The LDs came second here last time, they've been doing great in council votes in the local towns (see their leaflet barchart below), they have an excellent candidate, and new LD voters have been the largest group in my mini canvassing operation
If you can get 150/1 (with Hills according to Oddschecker), or close to it, get on
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
My top 10 realistic hopes for the evening:
Losses for Farage, Truss, Mercer, Kawczynski, 30pLee, Bradley, Galloway, Hands, Holden, Ross. Braverman would be the icing on the cake but I can’t see it.
On the contrary I think Farage and Galloway winning would be good for parliament to stop it being a closed talking shop for establishment types
Galloway has a track record of sleaze that is truly epic. It is always a surprise to find he has only done time in the jungle, not Parkhurst.
This is quite a poor Euros. A lot of boring low scoring games, and a lack of superstar skills
All the best players seem subdued. Knackered?
The first few games weren't bad. Been downhill since. At least England have the consolation that it's not just them that have been boring and very disappointing.
It’s fucking painful
This is meant to be a great showpiece for the sport, 2nd only to the World Cup, but this is dreadful
Not helped by the fact the last World Cup was fantastic, and ended with THAT final
And now this? Maybe it will perk up as we hit the Quarters
There was some suggestion that pitches were not billiard table smooth like a modern Premier League ground. The other problem is that in a cup competition, the first aim is not to lose.
This is quite a poor Euros. A lot of boring low scoring games, and a lack of superstar skills
All the best players seem subdued. Knackered?
The first few games weren't bad. Been downhill since. At least England have the consolation that it's not just them that have been boring and very disappointing.
There a levels...France / Belgium were poor, but were miles better than England i.e. they actually had some shots at the goal thing.
Although England scored two good goals and Belgium scored zero and France only an own goal. I think I preferred Jude’s Late Drama.
Might not be able to rely on the Ben Stokes of England football team in the next match if UEFA decide his crotch grab was unsporting behaviour.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
Snap*.
*This may not reflect my competition entries. I was misquoted.
I am increasingly optimistic about the LD seat tally. The party has been pretty consistent damping down expectations - until the weekend. Now? there are obviously enough canvassing returns to get their hopes up about us reaching further down that list of c. 100 seats where we're starting in 2nd.
Remember that shrill Tory cry - don't give Starmer a Supermajority!!!! That empowers people to vote LibDem where we are the challenger. Its NOT a vote for a Supermajority, so people can vote to demolish the Tories in good conscience, with the blessing of the Tories!
Every candidate should remember, as the election approaches, that anyone who won't say that they are voting for you, isn't. And if you're in with a chance of becoming the MP, even some of those who tell you they are voting for you, aren't.
Currently we have Cons around 20%, Lab around 40%, LibDems 12% and Reform 16%.
I think that there will indeed be some swingback Cons (and now Lab) => Reform. Reform we know stands for nothing and is defined in terms of what it stands against. It is a pressure group (an effective one but no more); no one is going to vote Reform for a strong fiscal policy and at the end of the day it's the economy, stupid. People will want a party that at least is theoretically in a position to enact an economic programme. Hence I think Cons will poll higher than the opinion polls are showing now, and Reform lower.
People will fear a Lab s*p*rm*j*r*ty. And hence not be motivated to vote Lab or vote Green/LibDems so as not to make it a crazy Lab number. So I think 40% might be where they end up. Maybe (maybe) even sub-40%.
LibDems and Greens are likely to be the home of many disaffected or cautious or nowhere else to go voters. I think therefore that this will result in higher voteshares for them in particular the LibDems.
So that gives my base case as follows:
Lab 38%, Cons 27%, Reform 10%, LibDems 14%, Green 5%.
Baxtering gives a 188-seat Lab majority which is not too shabby.
Cons party seats 121, Lab 419 which I have backed.
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
Here is my OFFICIAL LEONDAMUS PREDICTION
I think you have a point but you undercook Reform. Farage has real support and his voters are enthused, and he is still mainly poaching votes from the Tories, not Labour. However Labour are fading slightly due to the utter tediousness of Monsieur Starmer and their total lack of policies, amongst other things. Lib Dems are doing OK just by being NOTA
I’m content with that. Pleasingly it means I win my bet with @TimS and the Tories go into double figures, which definitely makes for a dramatic night
As I noted above Reform really is just an anti-vote. UKIP at least had a policy and hence could bind people positively. For Reform you are looking only at the "what are you rebelling against what have you got" vote which I wouldn't put as high as 13% and actually think it could go (well?) below 10%.
Here's my pretty much final view:
Labour .................. 39% Conservative ......... 23% LibDems .............. 12% Reform ................ 14% Greens ................ 6% SNP ..................... 3% Others ................. 3% TOTAL ................ 100%
Sub-Total ........... 632 N.I ...................... 18 TOTAL ................ 650
Labour Majority: 256
I am not so strong on RefUK so would go with
Labour 38% Conservative 27% Lib Dem 13% RefUK 9% Greens 6% SNP 3% Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399 Conservative 155 Lib Dems 45 RefUK 2 Greens 3 SNP 28 NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way. I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen; Galloway gone Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed A recount in Clacton
My top 10 realistic hopes for the evening:
Losses for Farage, Truss, Mercer, Kawczynski, 30pLee, Bradley, Galloway, Hands, Holden, Ross. Braverman would be the icing on the cake but I can’t see it.
On the contrary I think Farage and Galloway winning would be good for parliament to stop it being a closed talking shop for establishment types
Ben Bradley for Mansfield is interesting. His odds are a quite steep on 11/2 vs Labour as low as 1/10.
Quite big for a 16k majority.
I think Reform will do better than their odds imply in mansfield. Labour to sneak through the middle but yes BB does have a personable vote although he stood as mayor for E Midlands recently and got beaten
Comments
"Abstract
Ostensibly random and trivial experiences of everyday life, e.g., local weather, can have significant political consequences. First, we present a comprehensive meta-analysis of 34 studies of electoral turnout and rainfall – the vast majority demonstrating a negative association. Secondly, we present a new analysis of a voter panel with validated turnout for a complete electorate merged with fine-grained meteorological observations to show that Election Day rainfall reduces turnout by 0.95 percentage points per centimeter, while more sunshine increases turnout. Marginal voters (young voters) are up to six times more susceptible to bad weather and respond more positively to pleasant weather."
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379422001299
All the best players seem subdued. Knackered?
Fun sponging fact: Hē Oikoumenē [gē] in Greek means the inhabited earth, the whole world. So an ecumenical council is an international one.
Mattw restarts here.
Heh. I perhaps have the sort of books in my library that made me not see it. Oikoumene is another word in the lexicon
My best result is 6-7.99%.
Still good answer when stuck for one in theological and/or clerical company.
The voting experience in the US compared to UK is chalk and cheese. You hardly ever have to wait significant to vote in UK (unless you are one of those idiots who turns up at 9.55pm), where as the US they are queuing for hours and hours in some places (they get their like its Black Friday sales).
They've not yet made up the spare room for Captain and Mrs Fuck-Up, which is important, and it's been wholly sufficient given what they've faced. But I worry Labour HQ will get the impression they have the golden touch, when actually they've done quite poorly in selling Starmer to the public. They could learn a lot from the Lib Dems, who've done a much better job on a fraction of the budget and exposure.
It. Is. Dull
https://archive.is/y6hlj
"The party should have been given far more scrutiny during the election campaign. Its policies on education, wealth creation and public-sector management are naive and sometimes dangerous."
New, post-debate @SaintAnselmPoll shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, just within the margin of error
https://x.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1807864942839886217
(Election night is one in which I am pleased to be retired).
(This might be a completely impossible question to answer in your circumstances due to doxxing n that, in which case please instead answer by a link to an interesting youtube video)
Because a clearly senile Biden is going to LOSE this election
I know this is bloody obvious, but it seems they still don’t quite get it
If Starmer gets fewer votes than Corbyn and loses the election to Sunak you have a point. If Starmer gets a lower percentage number than Corbyn but nonetheless achieves a majority he wins. Corbyn's performance in 2017 under these circumstances is inconsequential.
I think you’re right about the Reform vote being very reluctant to return to the mother ship this time. They’re seething.
Essentially it's a bet on a polling issue (which seems deeply plausible given polling not great with reform - a delta of 1 point on 13 is twice the significance of 1 point on 26... I hope these terms are correct, well they're probably not cause I made them up)
Also I had to html encode the < in your quote so don't expect too many other replies unless this is a commonly known issue, cause the error message was totally unhelpful!
Discovered on the way that both TGOHF and Stewart Dixon got the ban hammer too.
Labour 38%
Conservative 27%
Lib Dem 13%
RefUK 9%
Greens 6%
SNP 3%
Others 4%
A guess on Seats;
Labour 399
Conservative 155
Lib Dems 45
RefUK 2
Greens 3
SNP 28
NI 18
I think there will be a lot of very slim majorities, so the relative Tory/Lib Dem results could be 20 either way.
I think the SNP will lose in Glasgow but the rest of the central belt will be much closer, but I think Labour crush the Tories in the English marginals.
Things I want to happen;
Galloway gone
Truss and Rees Mogg Portilloed
A recount in Clacton
Remember that shrill Tory cry - don't give Starmer a Supermajority!!!! That empowers people to vote LibDem where we are the challenger. Its NOT a vote for a Supermajority, so people can vote to demolish the Tories in good conscience, with the blessing of the Tories!
At some point you have to accept that this is the will of the people and allow the RN a shot, indeed the longer you suppress this the worst it gets
Cf the UK and Brexit, which could have so easily been avoided with an earlier referendum on Maastricht or Lisbon, but the establishment conspired to ignore the people
Amusingly on Betfair I see England are still favourites…
Calvados, 5th district (Bayeau and environs)
CANDIDATES QUALIFIED FOR THE SECOND ROUND (source le Monde)
Philippe CHAPRON
RN 21,001 - 31.86 %
Bertrand BOUYX
Hor.-Ensemble 16,208 - 24.59 %
Thomas DUPONT-FEDERICI
Gen.-NFP [WITHDR.] 16,124 - 24.46 %
SSI - Note that Left candidate in 3rd-place by just +84 votes has withdrawn, giving 2nd-place Macrony a good chance of prevailing over the Rightist.
Somehow doubt that Rishi Sunak's presence OR absence had much impact on the good (& bad) voters of Calvados. Santé!
The drift away has only really happened after every poll was indicating that Labour were going to win by a massive landslide. If the Tories had closed the gap significantly during the campaign the Labour vote would have climbed back to 45%+
The polls have never wavered from a large Labour majority and I believe that is what we are going to get on Thursday. Something your guy Corbyn could only ever dream of.
We won't be getting that here on Friday. There will be some excitement, some shrugging and everybody will potter off to work as normal. Same as Boris winning in 2019.
Unless Biden steps aside voluntarily, or can be persuaded/pressured to do so, it requires a majority of delegates to the convention to decide to pick someone else. And they were picked for the reliability of their votes in favour of Biden.
Yes he miscalculated on the ultimate result and there was almost certainly hubris involved, but not a great look for democracy to take a kicking from a significant chunk of the electorate in one election and say "well, probably should avoid another election as long as possible".
Heck, Tories took a kicking in the local council elections here and no-one thought "yes but the best democratic response is to delay the GE till the last possible moment", even if they thought it was the best thing for the Conservative party itself to do.
Losses for Farage, Truss, Mercer, Kawczynski, 30pLee, Bradley, Galloway, Hands, Holden, Ross. Braverman would be the icing on the cake but I can’t see it.
One of the most common Pfaffer-quips about riding a cycle is "But .. but .. but .. what about the RAIN in winter?"
Even something as blunt as "Don't you wear a coat when you walk the %^&*($ dog in November ?!! " often does not penetrate.
It's a bit like Sunak leaving D-Day. We'll have to see what happens but if (what appears) to be the trend of the last few days continues it's entirely possible that D-Day won't have actually had any discernable impact on the final result.
ie People furious with D-Day, polls show a reaction, but by election day it's faded enough that people vote on their own "first principles" and it doesn't impact actual votes.
"Tory MP gets penis trapped in senior letterbox"
Some variants there, if any MP wants to oblige the tabloids.
https://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/07/april-pond-has-moat.html
This is meant to be a great showpiece for the sport, 2nd only to the World Cup, but this is dreadful
Not helped by the fact the last World Cup was fantastic, and ended with THAT final
And now this? Maybe it will perk up as we hit the Quarters
One goes to character. The other goes to concerns about whether the most powerful man in the world is actually capable of doing his job.
The other thing is the Democrats have another 5 months of this to go through. Can they get Biden through the campaign without him casting any further doubts? Given how frequently these moments seem to be coming now, surely not.
The only voter segment they have left.
Quite big for a 16k majority.
Kruger should be odds on favourite, but not 1/10. I reckon 1/5 to 1/4 would be more like it
Lab should not be second favourite. Their odds of around 6/1 are even more out than Kruger's. They should be about 25/1
The LDs came second here last time, they've been doing great in council votes in the local towns (see their leaflet barchart below), they have an excellent candidate, and new LD voters have been the largest group in my mini canvassing operation
If you can get 150/1 (with Hills according to Oddschecker), or close to it, get on
*This may not reflect my competition entries. I was misquoted.