Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
They can’t reissue them, but they can give you a pink ballot to complete, which will be put in the ballot box but set aside at the count.
Actually not sure you are correct Ian about that?
@DeclanF I had the same issue when my postal vote didn’t appear so I contacted the council who said that they can reissue the ballot papers. But, and it’s quite a big but, the replacement postal pack would have had to be collected in person from the council office showing ID. The original would have been cancelled by the council and therefore unusable.
Fortunately mine did appear but, yes, I would have gone to that trouble just to vote had I needed to.
Thanks all for the advice.
We are all in full time jobs and the council offices are a long way away. We cannot take half a day off work at a moment's notice to collect replacement ballots.
So we will lose our votes because of the incompetence of the council and/or Royal Mail.
What a crap country this is.
Royal Mail will have a priority system in place for ballots in the post during the final week - so there's still a very good chance your papers will drop through your letter box early this week
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
I voted Tory yesterday because I like and respect my local MP. Pure constituency vote though.
This.
I think this will be more widespread than people realise, or the polls suggest. It's a very logical position for a committed Conservative (gives a 'liked and respected' base for the Tories to rebuild from, so I hope plenty of Tories do it).
I've bet accordingly, including on rcs's tip last night about the value for 150-199 Con seats (still available for 8 at smarkets). Worth noting, though, that my betting record is dire, so perhaps do the opposite.
But how many likeable and respect worthy Con candidates are there?
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
Religious reasons/tradition. It would have been deeply shocking to do so for many people; still is to some extent.
There is the practical issue that quite a few church and kirk halls are already block booked on Sunday mornings for the purposes of their owners.
Friday and Saturday are also Sabbaths for other people.
These seen like very strange reasons.
There are countries that are far more religious/Christian than the UK that don't seem to have any problem voting on a Sunday.
And there must be loads of spaces available on Sundays.
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy....
Dissent in Russia is treated by the dissenter accidentally falling out of the 12th floor.....but heh, Hitchens has to hitch.
I've lost track of my Hitchenses,
I just remember that there's a Roman Catholic one and an Atheist one, so when they have both gone one or the other will have a ghost who is surprised (assuming continuing consciousness).
Solemn Book of Common Prayer Anglican. He would be most upset to be called a Roman Catholic (wouldn't put him past appearing on here to reprove you in person).
IIRC he has done so before to (I think) correct an untruth. He should stay longer. Can we have Mr Meeks back as well.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
I voted Tory yesterday because I like and respect my local MP. Pure constituency vote though.
This.
I think this will be more widespread than people realise, or the polls suggest. It's a very logical position for a committed Conservative (gives a 'liked and respected' base for the Tories to rebuild from, so I hope plenty of Tories do it).
I've bet accordingly, including on rcs's tip last night about the value for 150-199 Con seats (still available for 8 at smarkets). Worth noting, though, that my betting record is dire, so perhaps do the opposite.
But how many likeable and respect worthy Con candidates are there?
This is all very well. But any Labour majority at all will be a historic achievement whatever the expectations.
I remember even two years ago hearing that it was unprecedented, and therefore extremely unlikely, for a party to gain over a hundred seats and win a majority. Problem with that argument being the small sample sizes of both changes of government and parties on circa 200 seats.
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
Or Saturday. Or both.
I wonder how the UK seat totals would be affected if we had the French system of run-offs?
I suspect the Tories would do a lot better than they seem likely to under our FPTP system this time.
Probably. But they'd have to get enough candidates into the second round.
In other news HUGE election going on in France today.
My prediction the far right will NOT get a majority
I'm I correct in thinking that only those getting 50% of the vote in their districts are elected today, with the remainder going into a 2 way run off next Sunday?
Hence most seats will get some tactical squeeze this week.
Yes, with the caveat that you have to win 12.5% of the electorate, to take part in the run off.
Most contests are likely to feature the Left, and RN in the top 2.
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
Religious reasons/tradition. It would have been deeply shocking to do so for many people; still is to some extent.
There is the practical issue that quite a few church and kirk halls are already block booked on Sunday mornings for the purposes of their owners.
Friday and Saturday are also Sabbaths for other people.
On the other hand schools are free on Sundays.
I agree about the Sabbath though, so would suggest 2 days.
I think India has six weeks of polling, but not all the time in the same place.
Yes, that would resolve the Sabbath issue. At present Saturday or Sunday would exclude small but significant groups; one thinks particularly of some parts of North London or Na h-Eileanan an Iar. Not knowledgeable enough to judge any Friday effect.
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
Religious reasons/tradition. It would have been deeply shocking to do so for many people; still is to some extent.
There is the practical issue that quite a few church and kirk halls are already block booked on Sunday mornings for the purposes of their owners.
Friday and Saturday are also Sabbaths for other people.
These seen like very strange reasons.
There are countries that are far more religious/Christian than the UK that don't seem to have any problem voting on a Sunday.
And there must be loads of spaces available on Sundays.
They are typically Catholic countries. Protestants (especially of the puritan leaning variety) get far more vexed about such things.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
I voted Tory yesterday because I like and respect my local MP. Pure constituency vote though.
This.
I think this will be more widespread than people realise, or the polls suggest. It's a very logical position for a committed Conservative (gives a 'liked and respected' base for the Tories to rebuild from, so I hope plenty of Tories do it).
I've bet accordingly, including on rcs's tip last night about the value for 150-199 Con seats (still available for 8 at smarkets). Worth noting, though, that my betting record is dire, so perhaps do the opposite.
But how many likeable and respect worthy Con candidates are there?
In other news HUGE election going on in France today.
My prediction the far right will NOT get a majority
Are you going to emigrate if they do?
lol
To be fair to @roger France certainly doesn’t feel like a country about to elect a far right majority government. And this morning I’m in a lost and somewhat rundown (but still very lovely in the centre) Breton town.
But what would that feel like anyway? And maybe the silence itself is telling. Perhaps this is a country which is quietly determined to do something drastic, it doesn’t want to shout about it
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
Religious reasons/tradition. It would have been deeply shocking to do so for many people; still is to some extent.
There is the practical issue that quite a few church and kirk halls are already block booked on Sunday mornings for the purposes of their owners.
Friday and Saturday are also Sabbaths for other people.
These seen like very strange reasons.
There are countries that are far more religious/Christian than the UK that don't seem to have any problem voting on a Sunday.
And there must be loads of spaces available on Sundays.
Simple. Voting on Sunday is for foreigners. Stick to Thursday. At the same time restore Derby Day to its proper day (the country has never recovered) and stop playing Test matches on Sundays. Thursday to Tuesday with a day off is the right pace.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Look back at the threads from the week before. Aside from a bit of forlorn hope from some quarters the writing was on the wall. I was so unsurprised I didn’t even bother going home to watch the exit poll, just checked it on my phone before getting back to the Christmas party.
Then you’re quite rare and astute. That absolutely wasn’t the reaction of most people
Remember the video of Boris and Carrie and dom all leaping up excitedly at the exit poll (feels like another world now, a happier time before the steam engine). Even they didn’t expect it. Remember the exit poll on tv - the shock and gloom of remoanery tv pundits
So if you didn’t feel that you’re unusual
I don’t think you’re right about this. I agree with Tim: 2019 was foregone.
Before my voting time but 1992 was a surprise for a lot of people.
2015 surprised quite a few but Dave made me money
2016 Brexit surprised many but not me because again I bet the right way.
2017 was pretty obvious once Theresa became a Maybot
I’m tootling back to Surrey and will leave @Leon to dig deeper into the 2019 hole. Admitting we’re wrong is hard, I should know.
By the way, when I first predicted a Labour landslide on here, I didn’t predict the Conservatives would be made extinct and I still don’t really think that will be the case.
Most commentators would call a 160-seat majority a landslide, which is roughly where I still reckon it will finish.
See you all later, probably during England’s next snoozefest. Something Leon, I, and much of the country agree on.
I’ve just linked to the video of the exit poll. Where everyone at channel 4 is horribly surprised by it. But PB will be PB. “It came from the wet market!!! That’s the consensus!! Nordstream was done by Russian agents that hate pipelines! Biden just has a stammer and he actually likes the feel of adult diapers that’s all it is!!”
Both can be true. It probably did come as a surprise to those based in London. Up here it was pretty obvious what the situation was.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
I voted Tory yesterday because I like and respect my local MP. Pure constituency vote though.
This.
I think this will be more widespread than people realise, or the polls suggest. It's a very logical position for a committed Conservative (gives a 'liked and respected' base for the Tories to rebuild from, so I hope plenty of Tories do it).
I've bet accordingly, including on rcs's tip last night about the value for 150-199 Con seats (still available for 8 at smarkets). Worth noting, though, that my betting record is dire, so perhaps do the opposite.
But how many likeable and respect worthy Con candidates are there?
Three
That many?
I'm well known on here for being of a generous and forgiving nature, so there's a risk I've erred on the upside
Trevor Phillips: "What was it about you, Nigel Farage, that first attracted all these racists and homophobes and anti-semites and racists to your party?"
Keir Starmer is prime minister presumptive. Unless the polls are more wrong than they have ever been or there is a sensational late shift in opinion the like of which we’ve never seen.
If he follows the model of predecessors, he will introduce himself as PM by making solemn undertakings “to repay your trust”. That was the phrase used the day after the 2019 election by Boris Johnson. He then went on to demonstrate that the only thing he could be relied on to deliver was serial mendacities. If Sir Keir proclaims that he will prove worthy of the country’s trust, he had better be believable. Given the grimness of the inheritance about to land in Labour’s lap, and the time it will take to grapple with it, he will need to persuade the public to give him the benefit of the doubt that his plans will reward patience.
Time and again, on doorsteps and at hustings, voters have expressed withering contempt for politicians. The mood of the electorate is sullen and suspicious about the political class as a whole. Public deference started curdling into disdain some decades ago, but never before has it reached such extreme levels. “For Keir, this [integrity] is very important,” says one member of the shadow cabinet. “He has very high expectations of people and woe betide anyone who lets him down.”
The new parliament will have its share of the feckless, the reckless and the rapacious. Anyone naive enough to think a Labour government will be a choir of angels has never seen a previous one. The searching test for Sir Keir will come when one of his ministerial team disgraces standards in public life. He talked tough to his biographer, Tom Baldwin, when the Labour leader said that “people will only believe we’re changing politics when I fire someone on the spot”. What if the miscreant minister is popular in the party? What if they are a senior member of the cabinet with their own powerbase? What if the offender is one of the prime minister’s close allies? The most revealing test of his moral fibre will be when we see how he deals with transgressive friends. This will define how truly committed he is to integrity and honesty.
“Cleaning up politics” is one of the easiest things to say from opposition. It will be one of the hardest things to do in government.
I’m tootling back to Surrey and will leave @Leon to dig deeper into the 2019 hole. Admitting we’re wrong is hard, I should know.
By the way, when I first predicted a Labour landslide on here, I didn’t predict the Conservatives would be made extinct and I still don’t really think that will be the case.
Most commentators would call a 160-seat majority a landslide, which is roughly where I still reckon it will finish.
See you all later, probably during England’s next snoozefest. Something Leon, I, and much of the country agree on.
I’ve just linked to the video of the exit poll. Where everyone at channel 4 is horribly surprised by it. But PB will be PB. “It came from the wet market!!! That’s the consensus!! Nordstream was done by Russian agents that hate pipelines! Biden just has a stammer and he actually likes the feel of adult diapers that’s all it is!!”
Both can be true. It probably did come as a surprise to those based in London. Up here it was pretty obvious what the situation was.
Yes that’s fair. It was definitely a surprise in london. Indeed more than that. Shock and horror for many - it meant Brexit getting done
It was also a positive surprise - the size of the majority especially - to my Brexity fam in Cornwall
I will happily concede it likely felt different elsewhere
Anecdote: I went to a very arty Christmas party the day after the election. The surprise and horror was so strong you could feel it a day later. People looking strained and rueful and sad and drinking too much. They REALLY didn’t expect it and they told me that
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
Or Saturday. Or both.
I wonder how the UK seat totals would be affected if we had the French system of run-offs?
I suspect the Tories would do a lot better than they seem likely to under our FPTP system this time.
On the contrary, it would make anti-Tory tactical voting gloriously efficient.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
A Sunday election would cost a whole lot more, given that until the evening all the election staff (and school caretakers, etc.) are on contracted hours.
Though presumably they'd be able to get on with their actual jobs. And Sundays would allow a lot of volunteers to participate.
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy....
I don't understand this argument.
Ukraine is as sovereign a nation as Russia. It is allowed to join NATO. It is allowed to join the EU.
If your neighbour wants nothing to do with you and would rather be with someone else... well, maybe you should look at your own behaviour rather than blaming someone else.
The problem is that Ukraine didn't join NATO.
It's time NATO delivered. Its members to agree that from a date let us say 6 months ahead Ukraine will be treated as if it were NATO territory, and Russia has 6 months warning to achieve peace or we all join in. This has gone on too long.
This is all very well. But any Labour majority at all will be a historic achievement whatever the expectations.
I remember even two years ago hearing that it was unprecedented, and therefore extremely unlikely, for a party to gain over a hundred seats and win a majority. Problem with that argument being the small sample sizes of both changes of government and parties on circa 200 seats.
Almost everything is unprecedented until it isn't. In some cases being a many sigma outlier is evidence against being for real - like Lance Armstrong's times and jeanne calment's age - and in some cases it isn't. The Japanese were probably not saying on 8 August 1945 that actually nothing had happened, because no single bomb in history had had one thousandth of the claimed effect.
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
Religious reasons/tradition. It would have been deeply shocking to do so for many people; still is to some extent.
There is the practical issue that quite a few church and kirk halls are already block booked on Sunday mornings for the purposes of their owners.
Friday and Saturday are also Sabbaths for other people.
These seen like very strange reasons.
There are countries that are far more religious/Christian than the UK that don't seem to have any problem voting on a Sunday.
And there must be loads of spaces available on Sundays.
It depends on the level of Sabbatarianism (to adopt a Victorian term) of who is involved. Some denominations just will not do anything secular on a Sunday: the Free Churches, or some parts of Judaism. Postal voting might be considered a reasonable response to their need, but at the moment its reputation is being Ratnered ...
Also: the question of church halls etc. is a real issue to consider, especially in rural areas. Indeed some *churches* are used for polling. Schools etc are available, on the other hand.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
If there isn’t an absolutely seismic ELE but, you know, ‘just’ a Labour landslide and it’s all done on a sub 40% vote share, then I’m anticipating a lot of ill-informed anger against SKS on here between about 22.01 and 23.30 when the first results come in.
I suspect some people (cough) are in it mainly for the disruption and anarchy.
There are distinct levels of disaster
Tories over 150 - which is historically bad, as @foxy notes - will have everyone in the Tory party breathing a sigh of relief
If they get over 200 they’ll probably pop the Nyetimber
But under 150 and it gets grim. That’s “terrible”
Under 100 and it’s absolute catastrophe
Falling behind the Lib Dems and coming third and it’s an “unthinkable apocalypse”
I think that the Tories would be relieved with anything over 150, content over 100, disappointed by going into double figures and dismayed if the 3rd party in Parliament.
An ELE does not literally mean no seats at all, but I think could reasonably be defined as 3rd party status with the PM not winning his constituency.
(@Sandpit can rest assured, even after the Sunkatastrophe Rutland & Stamford will still be blue)
Looking ahead, we are seeing a phenomenon to an unusual degree: There is an unprecedently large number of predictions, including drilling down seat by seat, being made by professionals with a stake in being right.
Secondly these show an amazing degree of variance, unless they all coalesce in the next three days.
Eg: Tories: Savanta 53; MiC 155
So they are not all going to be right; and whatever happens some are dramatically wrong.
Thirdly, I think there is a high chance that the legendary exit poll will have a lot more caveats than usual.
The volume of data appears to be making prediction harder not easier.
One we know the result the scramble will be on to explain why it was obvious all along. But I have no idea what that result will be.
With the retrospectoscope everything was obvious at the time. It's figuring it out in real time that is our problem as pundits and punters.
The extreme changes from last GE (or 2017) combined with an incompetent Conservative campaign, and very slick and disciplined Lab and LD ones does rather break the models, and the MRP ones too.
I prefer the probabilistic model of the MRP that recognises uncertainty that I linked to yesterday:
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy. As well they might. It is a foolish and ignorant one....
The only people who provoked Russia and Putin were the Ukrainian people who had the temerity to reject a Russian stooge as their leader and the likelihood of a future using outdoor toilets as loyal subjects of the Russkiy Mir whilst being robbed blind by the oligarchy. They looked west to the progress made in the former bloc and chose that for their future in a legitimate election. It began with the Maidan revolution - a pure demonstration of self determination. Hitchens, not unusually, is wrong.
You mean an illegal coup by peoole primarily in the west of the country against a government elected freely and fairly by people primarily in the east of the country.
You will presumably be content then, if Starmers government, which will have its powerbase in the north, becomes exceptionally unpopular, but a motion of no confidence to remove him fails, for radical conservatives in the south to go all "Citizen Smith", storm parliament, shoot up the TUC headquarters and force Starmer to flee the country, then dissolve parliament and hold new elections?
If Starmer engages in a murderous crackdown on peaceful protests, then yes. Yanukovych is a traitor who sold policy out to the Russian state. The people protested and he had them shot, so they drove him out of power. Sometimes revolutions are right.
So presumably you think the IRAs behaviour after Bloody Sunday in Londonderry was right and proper then?
There is a bit more to this than the black and white scenario you present. Undoubtably the police did fire, just as the British Army did, but in response to violence by the demonstrators.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
I think Tories about 50 is more likely than about 150. Expectations are so divergent that something unexpected is certain to occur on Friday morning.
But as long as Labour get to 326 that will do if necessary.
In other news HUGE election going on in France today.
My prediction the far right will NOT get a majority
I'm I correct in thinking that only those getting 50% of the vote in their districts are elected today, with the remainder going into a 2 way run off next Sunday?
Hence most seats will get some tactical squeeze this week.
It's reasonably complicated and I don't fully understand it but after today we should have a good idea of how things will go and whether the far right will succeed or fail.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Trevor Phillips: "What was it about you, Nigel Farage, that first attracted all these racists and homophobes and anti-semites and racists to your party?"
Since Farage apparently 'doesn't get comedy' he probably doesn't understand the question.
PM. "This country is a better place to live now than in 2010." In one sentence, the total failure of the Tory campaign. A little more humility, empathy and realism about the current situation would have been worth several points. Folk aren't daft.
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy....
I don't understand this argument.
Ukraine is as sovereign a nation as Russia. It is allowed to join NATO. It is allowed to join the EU.
If your neighbour wants nothing to do with you and would rather be with someone else... well, maybe you should look at your own behaviour rather than blaming someone else.
The problem is that Ukraine didn't join NATO.
It's time NATO delivered. Its members to agree that from a date let us say 6 months ahead Ukraine will be treated as if it were NATO territory, and Russia has 6 months warning to achieve peace or we all join in. This has gone on too long.
That's how I feel emotionally. But is it reasonable to discount the risk of nuclear escalation as Russian propaganda? I suspect it is, but find it hard to discount the rather large downside risk. And am then aware I'm playing into Putin's hands by thinking this. And then find myself in an endless loop of overthinking that can only be cured by going back to my sci-fi novel describing an all-powerful Wisdom that seems intent on a sort of galactic groundhog day until humanity sorts itself out.
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
A Sunday election would cost a whole lot more, given that until the evening all the election staff (and school caretakers, etc.) are on contracted hours.
Though presumably they'd be able to get on with their actual jobs. And Sundays would allow a lot of volunteers to participate.
You don't want volunteers involved in elections, I'd think. Simply not worth the vetting and training for such a short time (even if it could be done in time). Council workers are safer - already vetted to some degree, clear disciplinary and administrative and training chains, etc. The council head is responsible but can't be expected to deal with the issues volunteers bring.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Good question. Personally, it would be enormous delight tinged with a small amount of 'be careful what you wish for' nervousness.
Oliver Dowden says Conservative values are "lower taxes and controlled migration".
That's gaslighting.
No it isn't. They ARE Conservative values. Both gone up but regardless taxes will be lower and immigration more controlled than under Labour.
You would have said that in 2010 but it's proved not to be the case for the past 14 years.
What? You don't accept that taxes and immigration would be even higher under Labour for those 14 years?
Immigration, probably not. The Tories have clearly taken steps to increase immigration, and nothing they've done more lately to get it under control has made any difference. Taxes, probably yes, but the fall of the tax take would likely be fairer.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Honest answer: if the Tories come third to the Lib Dems, I'd be fine with that. If they came third to Reform, I'd be pretty concerned from a "what's the future hold?" point of view. Even if the Tories get under 100, I think they'll come bouncing back, though it may take a bit longer than if they get 150 or more.
I don't see why online voting should be a bigger security risk or more problematic than online banking to which everyone commits their life finances without a second thought.
Edit it only needs to be more secure than postal and proxy voting that aren't secure at all.
A couple of days ago Faster Payments went tits up affecting millions of customers. Imagine a general election where come election day Faster Ballots does similarly - due to cables being cut, power going out, Russian hackers — and millions of people can't vote.
Pencil and paper is so simple it's really hard to disrupt at scale.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Good question. Personally, it would be enormous delight tinged with a small amount of 'be careful what you wish for' nervousness.
I'm the opposite. A small shiver of delight muddied with a large dose of I'm not sure I'm going to enjoy the next chapter of this.
And normal service has been resumed. Sunak getting irritated and tetchy. The “why won’t you listen to me because I’m right and know more than you and everybody else” tone has returned.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Honest answer: if the Tories come third to the Lib Dems, I'd be fine with that. If they came third to Reform, I'd be pretty concerned from a "what's the future hold?" point of view. Even if the Tories get under 100, I think they'll come bouncing back, though it may take a bit longer than if they get 150 or more.
Either way, precedent (yes, I know) suggests that we won't see a Tory government for ten, possibly fifteen years.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Good question. Personally, it would be enormous delight tinged with a small amount of 'be careful what you wish for' nervousness.
A one who has always voted Tory, but Labour this time, only a very big fail will show enough people that the Tories can only win from the centre and at the same time clear out enough people to give space for a new generation of One Nation politicians. Labour ranks are full up. Tories to be the new home for young ambitious centrists who can wait 5-15 years. Under 30 (lucky people).
I don't see why online voting should be a bigger security risk or more problematic than online banking to which everyone commits their life finances without a second thought.
Edit it only needs to be more secure than postal and proxy voting that aren't secure at all.
A couple of days ago Faster Payments went tits up affecting millions of customers. Imagine a general election where come election day Faster Ballots does similarly - due to cables being cut, power going out, Russian hackers — and millions of people can't vote.
Pencil and paper is so simple it's really hard to disrupt at scale.
Yeah. And think about the jobs at the eraser companies contracted to MI5.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Good question. Personally, it would be enormous delight tinged with a small amount of 'be careful what you wish for' nervousness.
I will have the same, with an added sadness that this had to happen. This is the party that gave us Thatcher. I used to be quite loyal - I was never a member but it was my standard vote and I’ve been prepared to overlook a lot of venality and ineptitude, I’ve been especially loyal in general elections when it really matters
But I just can’t do it any more. The taxes and the migration stats and the failure to deal with wokeness and the totality of shite-the-bed incompetence over fourteen long wearying years
It feels like a relationship that has died. That horrible feeling when you know you have to break up and you know it will be a wrench and then you’ve got to divide the possessions and ugh ugh ugh
But it has to be done. We have to dump the Tories and endure the pain of loneliness (= a Labour government). They have to die so that something better may grow
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy. As well they might. It is a foolish and ignorant one....
The only people who provoked Russia and Putin were the Ukrainian people who had the temerity to reject a Russian stooge as their leader and the likelihood of a future using outdoor toilets as loyal subjects of the Russkiy Mir whilst being robbed blind by the oligarchy. They looked west to the progress made in the former bloc and chose that for their future in a legitimate election. It began with the Maidan revolution - a pure demonstration of self determination. Hitchens, not unusually, is wrong.
You mean an illegal coup by peoole primarily in the west of the country against a government elected freely and fairly by people primarily in the east of the country.
You will presumably be content then, if Starmers government, which will have its powerbase in the north, becomes exceptionally unpopular, but a motion of no confidence to remove him fails, for radical conservatives in the south to go all "Citizen Smith", storm parliament, shoot up the TUC headquarters and force Starmer to flee the country, then dissolve parliament and hold new elections?
If Starmer engages in a murderous crackdown on peaceful protests, then yes. Yanukovych is a traitor who sold policy out to the Russian state. The people protested and he had them shot, so they drove him out of power. Sometimes revolutions are right.
So presumably you think the IRAs behaviour after Bloody Sunday in Londonderry was right and proper then?
There is a bit more to this than the black and white scenario you present. Undoubtably the police did fire, just as the British Army did, but in response to violence by the demonstrators.
The IRA carried out hundreds of bombings and shootings in 1971/72, prior to Bloody Sunday. The demonstrators against Yanukovich did nothing comparable.
What’s clear now is that the pro-Russian faction in Ukraine is about as numerous as the BUF in 1941.
In other news HUGE election going on in France today.
My prediction the far right will NOT get a majority
I'm I correct in thinking that only those getting 50% of the vote in their districts are elected today, with the remainder going into a 2 way run off next Sunday?
Hence most seats will get some tactical squeeze this week.
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy. As well they might. It is a foolish and ignorant one....
The only people who provoked Russia and Putin were the Ukrainian people who had the temerity to reject a Russian stooge as their leader and the likelihood of a future using outdoor toilets as loyal subjects of the Russkiy Mir whilst being robbed blind by the oligarchy. They looked west to the progress made in the former bloc and chose that for their future in a legitimate election. It began with the Maidan revolution - a pure demonstration of self determination. Hitchens, not unusually, is wrong.
You mean an illegal coup by peoole primarily in the west of the country against a government elected freely and fairly by people primarily in the east of the country.
You will presumably be content then, if Starmers government, which will have its powerbase in the north, becomes exceptionally unpopular, but a motion of no confidence to remove him fails, for radical conservatives in the south to go all "Citizen Smith", storm parliament, shoot up the TUC headquarters and force Starmer to flee the country, then dissolve parliament and hold new elections?
If Starmer engages in a murderous crackdown on peaceful protests, then yes. Yanukovych is a traitor who sold policy out to the Russian state. The people protested and he had them shot, so they drove him out of power. Sometimes revolutions are right.
So presumably you think the IRAs behaviour after Bloody Sunday in Londonderry was right and proper then?
There is a bit more to this than the black and white scenario you present. Undoubtably the police did fire, just as the British Army did, but in response to violence by the demonstrators.
I don't support the killing of innocent civilians by anybody, be it governments, terrorist organisations, or random people.
And on the question of "black and white scenarios", you lead in with "an illegal coup against an elected government" as if that was the sum total of the situation. To anyone ignorant of the episode that sounds simple and wrong. But it certainly wasn't simple and on balance I don't think it was wrong. If you put simplistic, one-sided stories out there, you deserve ought to expect pushback.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
I voted Tory yesterday because I like and respect my local MP. Pure constituency vote though.
This.
I think this will be more widespread than people realise, or the polls suggest. It's a very logical position for a committed Conservative (gives a 'liked and respected' base for the Tories to rebuild from, so I hope plenty of Tories do it).
I've bet accordingly, including on rcs's tip last night about the value for 150-199 Con seats (still available for 8 at smarkets). Worth noting, though, that my betting record is dire, so perhaps do the opposite.
Lots of "liked and respected" Lib Dem MPs lost their seats in 2015. The Tories' 2024 is the LiIb Dems' 2015.
And normal service has been resumed. Sunak getting irritated and tetchy. The “why won’t you listen to me because I’m right and know more than you and everybody else” tone has returned.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Good question. Personally, it would be enormous delight tinged with a small amount of 'be careful what you wish for' nervousness.
I'm the opposite. A small shiver of delight muddied with a large dose of I'm not sure I'm going to enjoy the next chapter of this.
That's fair - it's a view I can well understand.
I suspect I feel the same about smashing the Tories as a chunk of people felt about Brexit - not totally sure this is a good idea but, f*ck it, let's roll the dice and see what happens.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
If the Tories are knocked into third, it probably means Reform have done very well. Plenty of people would say that’s fine because people would always vote Labour to keep them out; just as plenty of Tories thought people would always vote for them to keep out Corbyn.
In other news HUGE election going on in France today.
My prediction the far right will NOT get a majority
I'm I correct in thinking that only those getting 50% of the vote in their districts are elected today, with the remainder going into a 2 way run off next Sunday?
Hence most seats will get some tactical squeeze this week.
Yes, but they can be >2 way run offs.
Very rarely... The third place has to obtain 12.5 percent of electorate in the seat.
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy....
I don't understand this argument.
Ukraine is as sovereign a nation as Russia. It is allowed to join NATO. It is allowed to join the EU.
If your neighbour wants nothing to do with you and would rather be with someone else... well, maybe you should look at your own behaviour rather than blaming someone else.
The problem is that Ukraine didn't join NATO.
It's time NATO delivered. Its members to agree that from a date let us say 6 months ahead Ukraine will be treated as if it were NATO territory, and Russia has 6 months warning to achieve peace or we all join in. This has gone on too long.
That's how I feel emotionally. But is it reasonable to discount the risk of nuclear escalation as Russian propaganda? I suspect it is, but find it hard to discount the rather large downside risk. And am then aware I'm playing into Putin's hands by thinking this. And then find myself in an endless loop of overthinking that can only be cured by going back to my sci-fi novel describing an all-powerful Wisdom that seems intent on a sort of galactic groundhog day until humanity sorts itself out.
It's all very confusing.
I share all of this. But as Putin is Putin, and there will be another along sometime, it will have to be faced sometime. Especially if western intelligence concludes that Putin plans to win in Ukraine however long it takes. such an outcome renders the west weak indeed. And if we then vacillate for 5 seconds over, say, Estonia then the west is finished.
In other news HUGE election going on in France today.
My prediction the far right will NOT get a majority
Are you going to emigrate if they do?
lol
To be fair to @roger France certainly doesn’t feel like a country about to elect a far right majority government. And this morning I’m in a lost and somewhat rundown (but still very lovely in the centre) Breton town.
But what would that feel like anyway? And maybe the silence itself is telling. Perhaps this is a country which is quietly determined to do something drastic, it doesn’t want to shout about it
I am not sure that RN can really be described as Far Right. Very nativist and anti-immigrant certainly, but when it comes to economic and social policy, much more left wing. The main policies are to help with the cost of living by reducing VAT on electricity, and reversing the pension reforms that Macron brought in. All to be paid for by mythical "efficiency savings". There is a massive gap in the RN plans for €100 billion or so of costs, and it's pledge to end the deficit.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Good question. Personally, it would be enormous delight tinged with a small amount of 'be careful what you wish for' nervousness.
I will have the same, with an added sadness that this had to happen. This is the party that gave us Thatcher. I used to be quite loyal - I was never a member but it was my standard vote and I’ve been prepared to overlook a lot of venality and ineptitude, I’ve been especially loyal in general elections when it really matters
But I just can’t do it any more. The taxes and the migration stats and the failure to deal with wokeness and the totality of shite-the-bed incompetence over fourteen long wearying years
It feels like a relationship that has died. That horrible feeling when you know you have to break up and you know it will be a wrench and then you’ve got to divide the possessions and ugh ugh ugh
But it has to be done. We have to dump the Tories and endure the pain of loneliness (= a Labour government). They have to die so that something better may grow
That the left and right are united on this is what should worry the Tories most.
In other news HUGE election going on in France today.
My prediction the far right will NOT get a majority
I'm I correct in thinking that only those getting 50% of the vote in their districts are elected today, with the remainder going into a 2 way run off next Sunday?
Hence most seats will get some tactical squeeze this week.
It's reasonably complicated and I don't fully understand it but after today we should have a good idea of how things will go and whether the far right will succeed or fail.
I expect the Right will have a majority, but not RN. I don’t know if the Republicans would coalesce with RN.
The desperation of the Tory press this morning is embarrassing, and rather unedifying. The Mail and the Express lead with Rishi's warning that: Starmer will wreck Britain in 100 days (despite not having a plan?).
Making up blatant lies hasn't been a very effective strategy for Sunak so far, but he's never been a man to stop digging when in a hole.
It might play well with a very small demographic but the majority will conclude that Sunak is a man without a shred of integrity.
Coming after Johnson and Truss I had hoped that at the very least Sunak might restore a little honour to the position of PM. He's actually turned out to be as bad if not worse.
In other news HUGE election going on in France today.
My prediction the far right will NOT get a majority
I'm I correct in thinking that only those getting 50% of the vote in their districts are elected today, with the remainder going into a 2 way run off next Sunday?
Hence most seats will get some tactical squeeze this week.
Oliver Dowden says Conservative values are "lower taxes and controlled migration".
That's gaslighting.
No it isn't. They ARE Conservative values. Both gone up but regardless taxes will be lower and immigration more controlled than under Labour.
I think it likely that immigration in 2025-8 will be lower than the 2022-3 figures under the Tories, although refugees from the US civil war may complicate that.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Excellent question.
For me, it has the potential to be the divorce day that's been obviously on the cards for years, the faithful retainer put out to pasture for being hopelessly doddery, the dog that Francis Urquhart shot in House of Cards...
The old Conservative Party, the alliance of populists and patricians united in not liking socialism, is dead. All that remains is to see what follows. And whilst the noise is all about a Reformalike, that's not inevitable.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
You have! I've been doing online voting in British elections since 2001. *
However it's a fairly convoluted form of online voting where the steps are that the returning officer in Oxford sends a ballot paper to my brother in Leeds, my brother sends me a scan of the ballot paper (originally email, last one was Signal because he's quite tech savvy), I reply with an instruction about what mark to make on the ballot paper, he makes the mark I request (I hope he does this although I have no proof) and sends the paper back to Oxford via the totally reliable medium of the British Post Office.
I definitely see the argument for not involving computers in things since there are various ways you could break this, for example if there was malware on my computer someone could intercept the vote before it gets to me and cast it themselves, or they could guess which way I would vote and stop me getting the vote, and maybe send me a fake one. But we still have this in the current system, we just have a bunch of other steps as well.
I think you could easily design a system way safer than the current one. The problem is that it's not necessarily the one the government would choose...
* with a gap in between for when Labour disfranchized me
I don't see why online voting should be a bigger security risk or more problematic than online banking to which everyone commits their life finances without a second thought.
Edit it only needs to be more secure than postal and proxy voting that aren't secure at all.
Yes, but with online banking fraud we have the protection of being one of millions of potential victims, alongside all the security protections, so like Wildebeest on the Mara, the odds are in our favour despite the lions prowling about. With election fraud there is only one victim (or arguably 650), and all the lions will be after it.
I suspect there are three top line risks with online voting.
First people abuse the system. This happens already to some extent with postal and proxy voting. The benchmark is to be no worse, which should be easy to meet especially if postal is replaced by online.
Second system security risk where bad actors hack the system. This isn't inherent to voting systems. Arguably the consequence of hacking medical systems for example is much worse. You can make systems to be as secure as you want them to be really.
Third system resilience where the system might go offline at a critical moment.There are challenges here given the whole population will be voting within a few weeks. So you need to design in the mitigations and processes to handle unavailability of systems.
None of this seems unsolvable. The reason for going online for voting is the same as for everything else. It's convenient and efficient.
In other news HUGE election going on in France today.
My prediction the far right will NOT get a majority
Are you going to emigrate if they do?
lol
To be fair to @roger France certainly doesn’t feel like a country about to elect a far right majority government. And this morning I’m in a lost and somewhat rundown (but still very lovely in the centre) Breton town.
But what would that feel like anyway? And maybe the silence itself is telling. Perhaps this is a country which is quietly determined to do something drastic, it doesn’t want to shout about it
I am not sure that RN can really be described as Far Right. Very nativist and anti-immigrant certainly, but when it comes to economic and social policy, much more left wing. The main policies are to help with the cost of living by reducing VAT on electricity, and reversing the pension reforms that Macron brought in. All to be paid for by mythical "efficiency savings". There is a massive gap in the RN plans for €100 billion or so of costs, and it's pledge to end the deficit.
The terms left and right are now basically redundant. As you imply
The idea that the Tories are “right wing” let alone “hard right” or “extreme right” as some claim - is utterly risible. They are pathetic spineless cretins, that’s what they are
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
I voted Tory yesterday because I like and respect my local MP. Pure constituency vote though.
This.
I think this will be more widespread than people realise, or the polls suggest. It's a very logical position for a committed Conservative (gives a 'liked and respected' base for the Tories to rebuild from, so I hope plenty of Tories do it).
I've bet accordingly, including on rcs's tip last night about the value for 150-199 Con seats (still available for 8 at smarkets). Worth noting, though, that my betting record is dire, so perhaps do the opposite.
Lots of "liked and respected" Lib Dem MPs lost their seats in 2015. The Tories' 2024 is the LiIb Dems' 2015.
I actually quite respect our Tory MP Simon Hoare. A one-nation moderate, does his best for the constituency, no doubt. Not a mover or shaker but not a swivel-eyed loon either.
I really, really hope he loses though. I'll be voting tactically for the LibDem candidate.
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy. As well they might. It is a foolish and ignorant one....
The only people who provoked Russia and Putin were the Ukrainian people who had the temerity to reject a Russian stooge as their leader and the likelihood of a future using outdoor toilets as loyal subjects of the Russkiy Mir whilst being robbed blind by the oligarchy. They looked west to the progress made in the former bloc and chose that for their future in a legitimate election. It began with the Maidan revolution - a pure demonstration of self determination. Hitchens, not unusually, is wrong.
You mean an illegal coup by peoole primarily in the west of the country against a government elected freely and fairly by people primarily in the east of the country.
You will presumably be content then, if Starmers government, which will have its powerbase in the north, becomes exceptionally unpopular, but a motion of no confidence to remove him fails, for radical conservatives in the south to go all "Citizen Smith", storm parliament, shoot up the TUC headquarters and force Starmer to flee the country, then dissolve parliament and hold new elections?
If Starmer engages in a murderous crackdown on peaceful protests, then yes. Yanukovych is a traitor who sold policy out to the Russian state. The people protested and he had them shot, so they drove him out of power. Sometimes revolutions are right.
So presumably you think the IRAs behaviour after Bloody Sunday in Londonderry was right and proper then?
There is a bit more to this than the black and white scenario you present. Undoubtably the police did fire, just as the British Army did, but in response to violence by the demonstrators.
The IRA carried out hundreds of bombings and shootings in 1971/72, prior to Bloody Sunday. The demonstrators against Yanukovich did nothing comparable.
What’s clear now is that the pro-Russian faction in Ukraine is about as numerous as the BUF in 1941.
We need a word to encapsulate the tedious tendency for some people to wheel the IRA into unrelated conversations. Something like "to Gow off the deep end" but that's too wordy.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Good question. Personally, it would be enormous delight tinged with a small amount of 'be careful what you wish for' nervousness.
I will have the same, with an added sadness that this had to happen. This is the party that gave us Thatcher. I used to be quite loyal - I was never a member but it was my standard vote and I’ve been prepared to overlook a lot of venality and ineptitude, I’ve been especially loyal in general elections when it really matters
But I just can’t do it any more. The taxes and the migration stats and the failure to deal with wokeness and the totality of shite-the-bed incompetence over fourteen long wearying years
It feels like a relationship that has died. That horrible feeling when you know you have to break up and you know it will be a wrench and then you’ve got to divide the possessions and ugh ugh ugh
But it has to be done. We have to dump the Tories and endure the pain of loneliness (= a Labour government). They have to die so that something better may grow
That the left and right are united on this is what should worry the Tories most.
Looking back, the final Euro election was the one-night-stand that presaged the divorce - almost all Tory voters proved willing to desert the party and they plumped for the LibDems or Brexit Party, according to their referendum choice; on PB only our HY was left voting Tory.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
The present lot are not the same as the "old foe". In the good old days, the Conservatives were decent, respectable people (for the most part) with whom it was possible to discuss issues, and possibly even to get them to moderate their position (sometimes).
The present lot are a gang of unpricipled scallywags, who need to be removed in their entirity. They are not recognisable as the same group of people.
Anecdote alert: a couple of cousins of mine, who have voted Conservative all their lives, are this time voting Lib Dem.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
You have! I've been doing online voting in British elections since 2001. *
However it's a fairly convoluted form of online voting where the steps are that the returning officer in Oxford sends a ballot paper to my brother in Leeds, my brother sends me a scan of the ballot paper (originally email, last one was Signal because he's quite tech savvy), I reply with an instruction about what mark to make on the ballot paper, he makes the mark I request (I hope he does this although I have no proof) and sends the paper back to Oxford via the totally reliable medium of the British Post Office.
I definitely see the argument for not involving computers in things since there are various ways you could break this, for example if there was malware on my computer someone could intercept the vote before it gets to me and cast it themselves, or they could guess which way I would vote and stop me getting the vote, and maybe send me a fake one. But we still have this in the current system, we just have a bunch of other steps as well.
I think you could easily design a system way safer than the current one. The problem is that it's not necessarily the one the government would choose...
* with a gap in between for when Labour disfranchized me
I don't see why online voting should be a bigger security risk or more problematic than online banking to which everyone commits their life finances without a second thought.
Edit it only needs to be more secure than postal and proxy voting that aren't secure at all.
Yes, but with online banking fraud we have the protection of being one of millions of potential victims, alongside all the security protections, so like Wildebeest on the Mara, the odds are in our favour despite the lions prowling about. With election fraud there is only one victim (or arguably 650), and all the lions will be after it.
I suspect there are three top line risks with online voting.
First people abuse the system. This happens already to some extent with postal and proxy voting. The benchmark is to be no worse, which should be easy to meet especially if postal is replaced by online.
Second system security risk where bad actors hack the system. This isn't inherent to voting systems. Arguably the consequence of hacking medical systems for example is much worse. You can make systems to be as secure as you want them to be really.
Third system resilience where the system might go offline at a critical moment.There are challenges here given the whole population will be voting within a few weeks. So you need to design in the mitigations and processes to handle unavailability of systems.
None of this seems unsolvable. The reason for going online for voting is the same as for everything else. It's convenient and efficient.
Aside from terrorists and destructive nihilists, no-one has incentive to hack into medical systems. Electoral systems, on the other hand....
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Good question. Personally, it would be enormous delight tinged with a small amount of 'be careful what you wish for' nervousness.
I will have the same, with an added sadness that this had to happen. This is the party that gave us Thatcher. I used to be quite loyal - I was never a member but it was my standard vote and I’ve been prepared to overlook a lot of venality and ineptitude, I’ve been especially loyal in general elections when it really matters
But I just can’t do it any more. The taxes and the migration stats and the failure to deal with wokeness and the totality of shite-the-bed incompetence over fourteen long wearying years
It feels like a relationship that has died. That horrible feeling when you know you have to break up and you know it will be a wrench and then you’ve got to divide the possessions and ugh ugh ugh
But it has to be done. We have to dump the Tories and endure the pain of loneliness (= a Labour government). They have to die so that something better may grow
That the left and right are united on this is what should worry the Tories most.
Looking back, the final Euro election was the one-night-stand that presaged the divorce - almost all Tory voters proved willing to desert the party and they plumped for the LibDems or Brexit Party, according to their referendum choice; on PB only our HY was left voting Tory.
Scarcely anyone votes Conservative, because they like them. Only because they fear the alternatives more.
I’m tootling back to Surrey and will leave @Leon to dig deeper into the 2019 hole. Admitting we’re wrong is hard, I should know.
By the way, when I first predicted a Labour landslide on here, I didn’t predict the Conservatives would be made extinct and I still don’t really think that will be the case.
Most commentators would call a 160-seat majority a landslide, which is roughly where I still reckon it will finish.
See you all later, probably during England’s next snoozefest. Something Leon, I, and much of the country agree on.
I’ve just linked to the video of the exit poll. Where everyone at channel 4 is horribly surprised by it. But PB will be PB. “It came from the wet market!!! That’s the consensus!! Nordstream was done by Russian agents that hate pipelines! Biden just has a stammer and he actually likes the feel of adult diapers that’s all it is!!”
Both can be true. It probably did come as a surprise to those based in London. Up here it was pretty obvious what the situation was.
Yes that’s fair. It was definitely a surprise in london. Indeed more than that. Shock and horror for many - it meant Brexit getting done
It was also a positive surprise - the size of the majority especially - to my Brexity fam in Cornwall
I will happily concede it likely felt different elsewhere
Anecdote: I went to a very arty Christmas party the day after the election. The surprise and horror was so strong you could feel it a day later. People looking strained and rueful and sad and drinking too much. They REALLY didn’t expect it and they told me that
I tried hard not to gloat
No, it was more like, oh, how about .... having a baby ? You know it's going to happen, but the event itself is still something of a shock to the system.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
I voted Tory yesterday because I like and respect my local MP. Pure constituency vote though.
This.
I think this will be more widespread than people realise, or the polls suggest. It's a very logical position for a committed Conservative (gives a 'liked and respected' base for the Tories to rebuild from, so I hope plenty of Tories do it).
I've bet accordingly, including on rcs's tip last night about the value for 150-199 Con seats (still available for 8 at smarkets). Worth noting, though, that my betting record is dire, so perhaps do the opposite.
Lots of "liked and respected" Lib Dem MPs lost their seats in 2015. The Tories' 2024 is the LiIb Dems' 2015.
Yes .. that's my feeling too- personal votes are only valuable for maybe 1000 votes. Of course it may save a few seats, but will mostly be off set by tactical voting anyway, and of course the polls are showing a Labour tsunami so most of the Tory sandcastles will be swept away regardless.
And normal service has been resumed. Sunak getting irritated and tetchy. The “why won’t you listen to me because I’m right and know more than you and everybody else” tone has returned.
The single most astonishing thing about this campaign is how woeful the Tory machine has become. They genuinely seem to be surprised by an election that they called.
The other parties were ready to go, with their plans all mapped out even if the exact date needed to be typed in. But the Tories? They didn't seem to be expecting an election at all.
It is a truly remarkable bit of incompetence, but cannot be exclusively down to Sunak.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Good question. Personally, it would be enormous delight tinged with a small amount of 'be careful what you wish for' nervousness.
I will have the same, with an added sadness that this had to happen. This is the party that gave us Thatcher. I used to be quite loyal - I was never a member but it was my standard vote and I’ve been prepared to overlook a lot of venality and ineptitude, I’ve been especially loyal in general elections when it really matters
But I just can’t do it any more. The taxes and the migration stats and the failure to deal with wokeness and the totality of shite-the-bed incompetence over fourteen long wearying years
It feels like a relationship that has died. That horrible feeling when you know you have to break up and you know it will be a wrench and then you’ve got to divide the possessions and ugh ugh ugh
But it has to be done. We have to dump the Tories and endure the pain of loneliness (= a Labour government). They have to die so that something better may grow
That the left and right are united on this is what should worry the Tories most.
Looking back, the final Euro election was the one-night-stand that presaged the divorce - almost all Tory voters proved willing to desert the party and they plumped for the LibDems or Brexit Party, according to their referendum choice; on PB only our HY was left voting Tory.
Scarcely anyone votes Conservative, because they like them. Only because they fear the alternatives more.
And because, despite being dislikeable, they were, once upon a time, reasonably sensible and competent, and would prefer things that work to ideological nonsense.
I’m canvassing in an outer London ULEZy seat today. Expecting some Reform support on the doorstep and some Tory resilience. It’ll be interesting, I’ll let you know.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Good question. Personally, it would be enormous delight tinged with a small amount of 'be careful what you wish for' nervousness.
I will have the same, with an added sadness that this had to happen. This is the party that gave us Thatcher. I used to be quite loyal - I was never a member but it was my standard vote and I’ve been prepared to overlook a lot of venality and ineptitude, I’ve been especially loyal in general elections when it really matters
But I just can’t do it any more. The taxes and the migration stats and the failure to deal with wokeness and the totality of shite-the-bed incompetence over fourteen long wearying years
It feels like a relationship that has died. That horrible feeling when you know you have to break up and you know it will be a wrench and then you’ve got to divide the possessions and ugh ugh ugh
But it has to be done. We have to dump the Tories and endure the pain of loneliness (= a Labour government). They have to die so that something better may grow
That the left and right are united on this is what should worry the Tories most.
Looking back, the final Euro election was the one-night-stand that presaged the divorce - almost all Tory voters proved willing to desert the party and they plumped for the LibDems or Brexit Party, according to their referendum choice; on PB only our HY was left voting Tory.
It was the warning that Boris should have heeded. But instead of trying to heal a divided party, he threw a party for the divisive heels.
The video adds a certain something to the story. Makes it very difficult to obfuscate with “I don’t recognise that depiction of events. I’m not aware of any such song”.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
You have! I've been doing online voting in British elections since 2001. *
However it's a fairly convoluted form of online voting where the steps are that the returning officer in Oxford sends a ballot paper to my brother in Leeds, my brother sends me a scan of the ballot paper (originally email, last one was Signal because he's quite tech savvy), I reply with an instruction about what mark to make on the ballot paper, he makes the mark I request (I hope he does this although I have no proof) and sends the paper back to Oxford via the totally reliable medium of the British Post Office.
I definitely see the argument for not involving computers in things since there are various ways you could break this, for example if there was malware on my computer someone could intercept the vote before it gets to me and cast it themselves, or they could guess which way I would vote and stop me getting the vote, and maybe send me a fake one. But we still have this in the current system, we just have a bunch of other steps as well.
I think you could easily design a system way safer than the current one. The problem is that it's not necessarily the one the government would choose...
* with a gap in between for when Labour disfranchized me
I don't see why online voting should be a bigger security risk or more problematic than online banking to which everyone commits their life finances without a second thought.
Edit it only needs to be more secure than postal and proxy voting that aren't secure at all.
Yes, but with online banking fraud we have the protection of being one of millions of potential victims, alongside all the security protections, so like Wildebeest on the Mara, the odds are in our favour despite the lions prowling about. With election fraud there is only one victim (or arguably 650), and all the lions will be after it.
I suspect there are three top line risks with online voting.
First people abuse the system. This happens already to some extent with postal and proxy voting. The benchmark is to be no worse, which should be easy to meet especially if postal is replaced by online.
Second system security risk where bad actors hack the system. This isn't inherent to voting systems. Arguably the consequence of hacking medical systems for example is much worse. You can make systems to be as secure as you want them to be really.
Third system resilience where the system might go offline at a critical moment.There are challenges here given the whole population will be voting within a few weeks. So you need to design in the mitigations and processes to handle unavailability of systems.
None of this seems unsolvable. The reason for going online for voting is the same as for everything else. It's convenient and efficient.
Aside from terrorists and destructive nihilists, no-one has incentive to hack into medical systems. Electoral systems, on the other hand....
On that you are sadly wrong. People do have a very strong incentive to hack medical systems as happened I think recently with an Australian insurance company. The hackers held very sensitive data on patients including history of substance abuse, mental health issues etc. which they used to blackmail the insurer.
Maybe I am just not seeing it but I remain fairly confident the Tories will come second, albeit even further behind than they were in 2005. I think the Lib Dems will disappoint but will end up the third largest party ahead of the SNP who will be around 20. I expect Reform to get next to no seats, on a level with the Greens.
And I expect Labour to have a massive majority making losing power in 2029 difficult if not impossible in these more volatile times.
I’m canvassing in an outer London ULEZy seat today. Expecting some Reform support on the doorstep and some Tory resilience. It’ll be interesting, I’ll let you know.
In SW London, I trust, otherwise you'll be put on the naughty list.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
It's easier to hack and more prone to error, it requires more maintenance and bureaucracy, and it's less trusted. It's a cure to a problem that isn't a problem and is worse than the existing system. So it meets the definition of "a stupid idea that shouldn't have tax money spent on it"
Amazing that the Conservatives haven't awarded a contract to Hester or Fujitsu to (not) deliver it then.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
I voted Tory yesterday because I like and respect my local MP. Pure constituency vote though.
This.
I think this will be more widespread than people realise, or the polls suggest. It's a very logical position for a committed Conservative (gives a 'liked and respected' base for the Tories to rebuild from, so I hope plenty of Tories do it).
I've bet accordingly, including on rcs's tip last night about the value for 150-199 Con seats (still available for 8 at smarkets). Worth noting, though, that my betting record is dire, so perhaps do the opposite.
Lots of "liked and respected" Lib Dem MPs lost their seats in 2015. The Tories' 2024 is the LiIb Dems' 2015.
I actually quite respect our Tory MP Simon Hoare. A one-nation moderate, does his best for the constituency, no doubt. Not a mover or shaker but not a swivel-eyed loon either.
I really, really hope he loses though. I'll be voting tactically for the LibDem candidate.
Similar considerations here, Ben. I'm really glad I don't live just down the road and have to decide whether to oppose the excellent Alex Chalk in Cheltenham. No such problems with Lazy Laurence Robertson here in Tewkesbury, where the Yellow Diamonds continue to proliferate.
We took a trip out to Pershore last night and were surprised to see the same patterns there. I can just about buy Gloucestershire as a new Liberal fiefdom, but Worcestershire ffs? Not a Blue, Red, or Green flag in sight. I checked when I got home and the various sources confirmed my assumption that West Worcestershire is about as Tory as it gets. If you want to back The Peril you can get 33/1, no problem. Yet they definitely seem to be Trying There.
A misallocation of resources or something in the wind?
Not sure, but the local LDs are quite bullish about Tewkesbury, so I'm satisfied now that I didn't lead you guys astray when I put this up as a bet a couple of weeks ago.
Some PBers predicting a hung parliament plus this:
For what it's worth, I hear canvassing returns today have given Labour an internal projected vote share of 36.2%. Their number crunchers are saying its now 50/50 between a a hung parliament and a small Tory majority.
Comments
There are countries that are far more religious/Christian than the UK that don't seem to have any problem voting on a Sunday.
And there must be loads of spaces available on Sundays.
But they'd have to get enough candidates into the second round.
Most contests are likely to feature the Left, and RN in the top 2.
To be fair to @roger France certainly doesn’t feel like a country about to elect a far right majority government. And this morning I’m in a lost and somewhat rundown (but still very lovely in the centre) Breton town.
But what would that feel like anyway? And maybe the silence itself is telling. Perhaps this is a country which is quietly determined to do something drastic, it doesn’t want to shout about it
This lot can barely tie their shoelaces.
Whatever their goals, reality says otherwise
It probably did come as a surprise to those based in London.
Up here it was pretty obvious what the situation was.
Trevor Phillips: "What was it about you, Nigel Farage, that first attracted all these racists and homophobes and anti-semites and racists to your party?"
Keir Starmer is prime minister presumptive. Unless the polls are more wrong than they have ever been or there is a sensational late shift in opinion the like of which we’ve never seen.
If he follows the model of predecessors, he will introduce himself as PM by making solemn undertakings “to repay your trust”. That was the phrase used the day after the 2019 election by Boris Johnson. He then went on to demonstrate that the only thing he could be relied on to deliver was serial mendacities. If Sir Keir proclaims that he will prove worthy of the country’s trust, he had better be believable. Given the grimness of the inheritance about to land in Labour’s lap, and the time it will take to grapple with it, he will need to persuade the public to give him the benefit of the doubt that his plans will reward patience.
Time and again, on doorsteps and at hustings, voters have expressed withering contempt for politicians. The mood of the electorate is sullen and suspicious about the political class as a whole. Public deference started curdling into disdain some decades ago, but never before has it reached such extreme levels. “For Keir, this [integrity] is very important,” says one member of the shadow cabinet. “He has very high expectations of people and woe betide anyone who lets him down.”
The new parliament will have its share of the feckless, the reckless and the rapacious. Anyone naive enough to think a Labour government will be a choir of angels has never seen a previous one. The searching test for Sir Keir will come when one of his ministerial team disgraces standards in public life. He talked tough to his biographer, Tom Baldwin, when the Labour leader said that “people will only believe we’re changing politics when I fire someone on the spot”. What if the miscreant minister is popular in the party? What if they are a senior member of the cabinet with their own powerbase? What if the offender is one of the prime minister’s close allies? The most revealing test of his moral fibre will be when we see how he deals with transgressive friends. This will define how truly committed he is to integrity and honesty.
“Cleaning up politics” is one of the easiest things to say from opposition. It will be one of the hardest things to do in government.
It was also a positive surprise - the size of the majority especially - to my Brexity fam in Cornwall
I will happily concede it likely felt different elsewhere
Anecdote: I went to a very arty Christmas party the day after the election. The surprise and horror was so strong you could feel it a day later. People looking strained and rueful and sad and drinking too much. They REALLY didn’t expect it and they told me that
I tried hard not to gloat
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get.
Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Edit: I think he may be trying to remain calm and not go all crazy and whiny.
Also: the question of church halls etc. is a real issue to consider, especially in rural areas. Indeed some *churches* are used for polling. Schools etc are available, on the other hand.
The extreme changes from last GE (or 2017) combined with an incompetent Conservative campaign, and very slick and disciplined Lab and LD ones does rather break the models, and the MRP ones too.
I prefer the probabilistic model of the MRP that recognises uncertainty that I linked to yesterday:
https://x.com/ABLPoli/status/1807027204527710695?t=jVtlgE3anOb9ji56AyaNpA&s=19
Though having 175 undecided is a bit foggy, it is probably right in terms of uncertainty.
There is a bit more to this than the black and white scenario you present. Undoubtably the police did fire, just as the British Army did, but in response to violence by the demonstrators.
https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/04/who-did-what-to-whom-in-kiev-reflections-on-the-elusiveness-of-truth-.html
But as long as Labour get to 326 that will do if necessary.
"This country is a better place to live now than in 2010."
In one sentence, the total failure of the Tory campaign.
A little more humility, empathy and realism about the current situation would have been worth several points. Folk aren't daft.
It's all very confusing.
Even if the Tories get under 100, I think they'll come bouncing back, though it may take a bit longer than if they get 150 or more.
Pencil and paper is so simple it's really hard to disrupt at scale.
Taxes would have been higher in 2010-2015 but so would growth, leading to lower taxes later. Austerity was a terrible mistake. As was Brexit.
Immigration levels have been entirely down to the Government's incompetence.
So no, I don't.
But I just can’t do it any more. The taxes and the migration stats and the failure to deal with wokeness and the totality of shite-the-bed incompetence over fourteen long wearying years
It feels like a relationship that has died. That horrible feeling when you know you have to break up and you know it will be a wrench and then you’ve got to divide the possessions and ugh ugh ugh
But it has to be done. We have to dump the Tories and endure the pain of loneliness (= a Labour government). They have to die so that something better may grow
What’s clear now is that the pro-Russian faction in Ukraine is about as numerous as the BUF in 1941.
And on the question of "black and white scenarios", you lead in with "an illegal coup against an elected government" as if that was the sum total of the situation. To anyone ignorant of the episode that sounds simple and wrong. But it certainly wasn't simple and on balance I don't think it was wrong.
If you put simplistic, one-sided stories out there, you deserve ought to expect pushback.
The Tories' 2024 is the LiIb Dems' 2015.
I suspect I feel the same about smashing the Tories as a chunk of people felt about Brexit - not totally sure this is a good idea but, f*ck it, let's roll the dice and see what happens.
The third place has to obtain 12.5 percent of electorate in the seat.
He really doesn’t like being challenged on any issue. He gets very angry and whiny if he doesn’t have the final word on any question or issue.
Reminds me of Violet Elizabeth Bott from the Just William stories.”I’ll thcream and thcream if you don’t listen to me”.
Coming after Johnson and Truss I had hoped that at the very least Sunak might restore a little honour to the position of PM. He's actually turned out to be as bad if not worse.
For me, it has the potential to be the divorce day that's been obviously on the cards for years, the faithful retainer put out to pasture for being hopelessly doddery, the dog that Francis Urquhart shot in House of Cards...
The old Conservative Party, the alliance of populists and patricians united in not liking socialism, is dead. All that remains is to see what follows. And whilst the noise is all about a Reformalike, that's not inevitable.
First people abuse the system. This happens already to some extent with postal and proxy voting. The benchmark is to be no worse, which should be easy to meet especially if postal is replaced by online.
Second system security risk where bad actors hack the system. This isn't inherent to voting systems. Arguably the consequence of hacking medical systems for example is much worse. You can make systems to be as secure as you want them to be really.
Third system resilience where the system might go offline at a critical moment.There are challenges here given the whole population will be voting within a few weeks. So you need to design in the mitigations and processes to handle unavailability of systems.
None of this seems unsolvable. The reason for going online for voting is the same as for everything else. It's convenient and efficient.
The idea that the Tories are “right wing” let alone “hard right” or “extreme right” as some claim - is utterly risible. They are pathetic spineless cretins, that’s what they are
I really, really hope he loses though. I'll be voting tactically for the LibDem candidate.
EXCL 🚨 Tory student group held black-tie dinner two weeks ago where members sang German marching song used by the Nazis in WW2
Warwick Uni Conservative Association sorry after dancing to “Erika” — used by SS and Wermacht and today white supremacists
https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1807335824230396037
The present lot are a gang of unpricipled scallywags, who need to be removed in their entirity. They are not recognisable as the same group of people.
Anecdote alert: a couple of cousins of mine, who have voted Conservative all their lives, are this time voting Lib Dem.
You know it's going to happen, but the event itself is still something of a shock to the system.
Unfortunately with none of the upside.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2211486/The-Nazi-uniform-It-just-laugh-Balls-brushes-university-prank-saying-embarrassed-photo.html
Rishi Sunak: "This campaign is something I am proud of."
Laura Kuenssberg: "Really?"
The other parties were ready to go, with their plans all mapped out even if the exact date needed to be typed in. But the Tories? They didn't seem to be expecting an election at all.
It is a truly remarkable bit of incompetence, but cannot be exclusively down to Sunak.
I’m canvassing in an outer London ULEZy seat today. Expecting some Reform support on the doorstep and some Tory resilience. It’ll be interesting, I’ll let you know.
NEW THREAD
And I expect Labour to have a massive majority making losing power in 2029 difficult if not impossible in these more volatile times.
We took a trip out to Pershore last night and were surprised to see the same patterns there. I can just about buy Gloucestershire as a new Liberal fiefdom, but Worcestershire ffs? Not a Blue, Red, or Green flag in sight. I checked when I got home and the various sources confirmed my assumption that West Worcestershire is about as Tory as it gets. If you want to back The Peril you can get 33/1, no problem. Yet they definitely seem to be Trying There.
A misallocation of resources or something in the wind?
Not sure, but the local LDs are quite bullish about Tewkesbury, so I'm satisfied now that I didn't lead you guys astray when I put this up as a bet a couple of weeks ago.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/12/12/a-big-rumour-to-get-everyone-going-before-the-exit-poll-at-10pm/
Some PBers predicting a hung parliament plus this:
For what it's worth, I hear canvassing returns today have given Labour an internal projected vote share of 36.2%. Their number crunchers are saying its now 50/50 between a a hung parliament and a small Tory majority.
https://x.com/tnewtondunn/status/1205242626548674563?s=20