Five years of Labour fucking up will be a great recruiting seargeant for the Conservatives.
Again.
That's roughly what Labour thought in 2010.
Remind me how that turned out.
Since 1945, there are a few things that you wouldn't think are right if you don't know your political history.
We've had 18 Prime Ministers; but a majority of those didn't get the job via a General Election but by internal party mechanisms. We've had swings from Labour to Conservative and vice versa, but actually when a party gets power they often keep it for more than a decade. Excepting 1945 to 1951, and 1964 to 1979, parties hold power for far longer than you think they would. 13 years of Conservative from 1951, 18 years from 1979 and 14 years from 2010 to now. 13 for Labour from 1997.
And the other one that TSE often reminds us of: Ted Heath is the only leader to go into an election with the other party having a majority at dissolution and turn it into a majority for his party. Can Starmer add his name to that very short list in 6 days time?
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
Security and accuracy. Would you trust Fujitsu with our democratic process?
Yeah, find a computer scientist without a conflict of interest (relatively new extra qualification: isn't a "searching for uses of blockchain lunatic") that thinks we should vote online.
Shame in a way. We could do some much more nuanced democracy (e.g. I've been discussing with friends today the idea of a pi chart where government spending could be democratically allocated; it probably doesn't go well though)
Wasn't Glasto originally a kind of hippy, deep green thing?
Now we have 100k wearing some kind of LED wristband which will be thrown away in the morning. Earth's resources?
Maybe Mark Fisher was right.
I've always find something kind of irritating about Coldplay but can't really put my finger on why...
Not the worst band ever to play Glastonbury...
A minor band called Radiohead were far worse....
Based on last night - why the hell doesn't the UK enter Dua Lipa for Eurovision?
She'd walk it.
Not the done thing old boy. For some obscure reason the Brits like to enter rubbish up and coming acts in order to mitigate against actually doing well ever again.
Eurovision does not deliver exposure in the USA or even the UK, and that's the ball game for British acts. The only exception I can think of is Måneskin who were a bit uncharacteristic as winners. Touring on the continental European circuit is a very distant second prize.
Also - my dad is fairly insane, without the first clue about betting, and has the idea that Reform will get >40 seats. Has anyone seen any bets that where he'd have at least an expected return of 30% (where 100% is break even) on that sort of thing? I could always lay the bet myself as a way of getting around inheritance tax I suppose.
The best I can find is 14/1 with Paddy Power on Reform taking Mansfield, Clapton, and Yarmouth, which such an improbable result would presumably imply.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
I have two personal reasons:
1) It would ruin election night, and Ind act we should encourage a competition between authorities so we see more running with ballot boxes; and
2) If we had truly secure online voting, eventually we’d have Swiss style referendums on bloody everything.
Make government funding for councils dependent on quick electoral turnaround? Each council starts with £100 million and loses £10 million an hour?
If Yourtown Unitary Authority wants to run meals on wheels next year, it can damn well count those ballots faster. We could have recounts, but it would mean converting three parks into data centres.
I'm sure someone would be well up for putting it in their plan for government.
(On actually good Reform seat bets, you can get prices around 10 or higher if you take the time to work it on zero seats, or bookies are also allowing it outright but I'd prefer to be able to trade out if I can. I think fair price for that is somewhere around 3-4 based essentially on the huge discrepancies between pollsters. DYOR etc).
Wasn't Glasto originally a kind of hippy, deep green thing?
Now we have 100k wearing some kind of LED wristband which will be thrown away in the morning. Earth's resources?
Maybe Mark Fisher was right.
I've always find something kind of irritating about Coldplay but can't really put my finger on why...
Not the worst band ever to play Glastonbury...
Yellow, The Scientist and Clocks were all good but a lot of it sounds the same.
A Rush of Blood to the Head (The Scientist, Clocks, Politik) is a great album because it is so spare: by which I mean it isn't overproduced, it doesn't have three million instruments in harmony. It is mostly a competent drum line, Chris Martin's voice, and maybe one instrument track. It's like they kept listening to it and stripping stuff out: do we absolutely need this? Nope, chuck it. It's brilliantly edited.
Fast forward a couple of albums and they are absurdly overproduced: when Phil Spector first did the "Wall of Sound" it was cool. But it has been overdone to high heaven. And you get the feeling that Chris Martin and Co were sitting around going "it's not there yet... what do we need to add..." NO CHRIS, YOU DON'T NEED TO ADD ANYTHING. REMOVE THINGS.
It's Rowling disease all over again. An unwillingness to edit, to cut, and to reduce to the best bits.
In fact, I'm going to listen to a Rush of Blood to the Head now, because it is superb.
Also: I listened to that album about 100 times when I broke up with my then girlfriend.
Rishi campaigning at a temple in Harrow East, which is a seat the Tories might just hold against the trend, (although probably not).
He may be praying, rather than campaigning.
Saw a guy downtown today with a T shirt which said, "The devil saw me with my head bowed and thought he had won until I said amen." I found it oddly moving.
What I didn't really see much of today was any political activity the last Saturday before the election. Belatedly, there was a small group of Labour supporters handing out leaflets but none of the other parties were in evidence at all. Quite bizarre and unprecedented in my experience.
Wasn't Glasto originally a kind of hippy, deep green thing?
Now we have 100k wearing some kind of LED wristband which will be thrown away in the morning. Earth's resources?
Maybe Mark Fisher was right.
I've always find something kind of irritating about Coldplay but can't really put my finger on why...
I used to say "I don't know if I dislike Chris Martin because he reminds be of Jenson Button, or if I dislike Jenson Button because he reminds me of Chris Martin."
But, actually, I don't mind either these days. Can understand why people are a bit sniffy of Coldplay, but they've been good tonight. Dua Lipa last night...
(On actually good Reform seat bets, you can get prices around 10 or higher if you take the time to work it on zero seats, or bookies are also allowing it outright but I'd prefer to be able to trade out if I can. I think fair price for that is somewhere around 3-4 based essentially on the huge discrepancies between pollsters. DYOR etc).
I think the value is in the edges: either Reform outperforming handily, getting 18+% (where they could really start to take a lot of seats), or of their vote not turning up on the day, and them ending up on 1 or 0.
I'd sell the central bands on Betfair. And I'd definitely put a few quid on at 30s on Betfair on "Most Seats without Labour". (Yes, it's a likely loser, but you're being offered silly odds when you consider that there's still a week to go and it's perfectly possible the polls are understating them. Remember, they're second on vote share with a number of pollsters.)
Wasn't Glasto originally a kind of hippy, deep green thing?
Now we have 100k wearing some kind of LED wristband which will be thrown away in the morning. Earth's resources?
Maybe Mark Fisher was right.
I've always find something kind of irritating about Coldplay but can't really put my finger on why...
I used to say "I don't know if I dislike Chris Martin because he reminds be of Jenson Button, or if I dislike Jenson Button because he reminds me of Chris Martin."
But, actually, I don't mind either these days. Can understand why people are a bit sniffy of Coldplay, but they've been good tonight. Dua Lipa last night...
I think The Times will come out for Labour and The Sun won't endorse any particular party but will urge their readers to vote for any party that will prevent a Labour "supermajority" lol
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
It's easier to hack and more prone to error, it requires more maintenance and bureaucracy, and it's less trusted. It's a cure to a problem that isn't a problem and is worse than the existing system. So it meets the definition of "a stupid idea that shouldn't have tax money spent on it"
I'm pissed off. So many shops have closed that the only ones within reach are Betfred and LadbrokesCoral (eliding the two to prevent disclosure). Either the constituency bets aren't available in the shops or the VERY NICE IF NOT FULLY INFORMED PEOPLE behind the desk just don't know and get confused when you ask...and confused people are very difficult to get service from.
So I'm a bit fucked. I appreciate few people on PB actually bet in shops instead of online, but does *anybody* know an actual physical shop that offers constituency bets?
I'm pissed off. So many shops have closed that the only ones within reach are Betfred and LadbrokesCoral (eliding the two to prevent disclosure). Either the constituency bets aren't available in the shops or the VERY NICE IF NOT FULLY INFORMED PEOPLE behind the desk just don't know and get confused when you ask...and confused people are very difficult to get service from.
So I'm a bit fucked. I appreciate few people on PB actually bet in shops instead of online, but does *anybody* know an actual physical shop that offers constituency bets?
On the subject of the media - and particularly the print media.
An observation from my wife working at the local Co-Op. Normally they have a good handle on how many newspapers they will sell and returns are very low
Since the election campaign started and particularly over the last week, newspaper sales have collapsed. Apparently this is the case across a lot of the branches. Huge numbers of returns because of very few sales. Not sure if it is because people are sick of the political headlines but it looks like what used to be a sales boost for a few weeks is now becoming a liability.
It's titbits like this which make this site so valuable. Thanks for sharing.
Indicative perhaps of a lower than expected turnout?
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
Security and accuracy. Would you trust Fujitsu with our democratic process?
"XL bully shot after attacking and injuring a woman in Manchester
Police officers shot the dog after it attacked members of the public and injured a woman. Officers were unable to regain control of the XL bully before shooting it."
On the subject of the media - and particularly the print media.
An observation from my wife working at the local Co-Op. Normally they have a good handle on how many newspapers they will sell and returns are very low
Since the election campaign started and particularly over the last week, newspaper sales have collapsed. Apparently this is the case across a lot of the branches. Huge numbers of returns because of very few sales. Not sure if it is because people are sick of the political headlines but it looks like what used to be a sales boost for a few weeks is now becoming a liability.
This is really interesting, because it ties in with my own behaviour. I normally buy quite a lot of print newspapers, but I've hardly done so since the election started.
On the subject of the media - and particularly the print media.
An observation from my wife working at the local Co-Op. Normally they have a good handle on how many newspapers they will sell and returns are very low
Since the election campaign started and particularly over the last week, newspaper sales have collapsed. Apparently this is the case across a lot of the branches. Huge numbers of returns because of very few sales. Not sure if it is because people are sick of the political headlines but it looks like what used to be a sales boost for a few weeks is now becoming a liability.
This is really interesting, because it ties in with my own behaviour. I normally buy quite a lot of print newspapers, but I've hardly done so since the election started.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
You have! I've been doing online voting in British elections since 2001. *
However it's a fairly convoluted form of online voting where the steps are that the returning officer in Oxford sends a ballot paper to my brother in Leeds, my brother sends me a scan of the ballot paper (originally email, last one was Signal because he's quite tech savvy), I reply with an instruction about what mark to make on the ballot paper, he makes the mark I request (I hope he does this although I have no proof) and sends the paper back to Oxford via the totally reliable medium of the British Post Office.
I definitely see the argument for not involving computers in things since there are various ways you could break this, for example if there was malware on my computer someone could intercept the vote before it gets to me and cast it themselves, or they could guess which way I would vote and stop me getting the vote, and maybe send me a fake one. But we still have this in the current system, we just have a bunch of other steps as well.
I think you could easily design a system way safer than the current one. The problem is that it's not necessarily the one the government would choose...
* with a gap in between for when Labour disfranchized me
On the subject of the media - and particularly the print media.
An observation from my wife working at the local Co-Op. Normally they have a good handle on how many newspapers they will sell and returns are very low
Since the election campaign started and particularly over the last week, newspaper sales have collapsed. Apparently this is the case across a lot of the branches. Huge numbers of returns because of very few sales. Not sure if it is because people are sick of the political headlines but it looks like what used to be a sales boost for a few weeks is now becoming a liability.
It's titbits like this which make this site so valuable. Thanks for sharing.
Indicative perhaps of a lower than expected turnout?
For those who could be interested in backing the lower turnout bands, there is a surprising difference in some of the odds on offer. For example for a turnout of between 57.50% - 60.00%, Betfred are offering 11/2 ... that's 37.5% better than the 4/1 odds quoted by Ladbrokes/Coral. Looking at the next band up, i.e. for a turnout of between 60.00% - 62.5%, Ladbrokes are offering 7/2 which is 40% better than the 5/2 odds available from BetVictor. You pays yer money and you takes yer pick!
"XL bully shot after attacking and injuring a woman in Manchester
Police officers shot the dog after it attacked members of the public and injured a woman. Officers were unable to regain control of the XL bully before shooting it."
(On actually good Reform seat bets, you can get prices around 10 or higher if you take the time to work it on zero seats, or bookies are also allowing it outright but I'd prefer to be able to trade out if I can. I think fair price for that is somewhere around 3-4 based essentially on the huge discrepancies between pollsters. DYOR etc).
I think the value is in the edges: either Reform outperforming handily, getting 18+% (where they could really start to take a lot of seats), or of their vote not turning up on the day, and them ending up on 1 or 0.
I'd sell the central bands on Betfair. And I'd definitely put a few quid on at 30s on Betfair on "Most Seats without Labour". (Yes, it's a likely loser, but you're being offered silly odds when you consider that there's still a week to go and it's perfectly possible the polls are understating them. Remember, they're second on vote share with a number of pollsters.)
I agree in principle that the edges are the way to go given these discrepancies, I just don't see the value in most of the "screw up being it's too low" bets as the market is heavily leaning towards Reform outperforming all the polls. And because I think the outperform tail is too heavily backed I'm not certain that laying the centre is necessarily worth it either although mebbee... don't have to think about it hard with a back on the underperform tail.
Your 30s for Most Seats without Labour is an interesting one though which I'd deffo be backing at >50s. Honestly if I were either more or less drunk than atm I may have been following you in 30s. Thanks, will keep eye out.
I'm pissed off. So many shops have closed that the only ones within reach are Betfred and LadbrokesCoral (eliding the two to prevent disclosure). Either the constituency bets aren't available in the shops or the VERY NICE IF NOT FULLY INFORMED PEOPLE behind the desk just don't know and get confused when you ask...and confused people are very difficult to get service from.
So I'm a bit fucked. I appreciate few people on PB actually bet in shops instead of online, but does *anybody* know an actual physical shop that offers constituency bets?
Assuming it's a "yoof", just show them an identically named and categorised bet on your phone, but FROM A DIFFERENT BOOKIE. I mean it's suspicious enough as it is, don't need them to be thinking about why you're not doing it online...
You can also ask them to call head office to explain to them how to do it to put a tenner on. And once they've ended that phone call, you can change your bet to ten hundred*
*Can you actually put a grand on a constituency bet in a physical bookies at odds under 1/5 on without someone senior looking at it? Doubt it. ESPECIALLY in the current climate.
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
I really wish these pundits would put their money where their mouth (maybe they do, someone has to take the other side of our bets) and publish their betting record. Otherwise their incentives are completely misaligned (be boring and wrong is much better than exciting and wrong).
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
I really wish these pundits would put their money where their mouth (maybe they do, someone has to take the other side of our bets) and publish their betting record. Otherwise their incentives are completely misaligned (be boring and wrong is much better than exciting and wrong).
(The below is one of my standard rants. It's pretty much a conditioned reflex at this point. Please don't be offended and yes, I agree with you)
They are not paid to be right. They are paid to attract attention. Professional pollsters do it to advertise themselves and their services. The new Goodwin-class pollsters do it to promulgate a political position. Although they do leave the market if they get it wrong (eg Angus Reid) the individuals don't get sacked if they get it wrong.
Probably totally wrong time of day to ask this but has anyone had any bets on French election? I haven't, and almost certainly won't due to lack of knowledge, although have had a few minutes trying to see if I could see something to do.
There does look like there's an arb between ladbrokes (11.0 to back DECIMAL) and polymarket (currently 12 bid BINARY) on the NFP most seats price if anyone is particularly interested
"XL bully shot after attacking and injuring a woman in Manchester
Police officers shot the dog after it attacked members of the public and injured a woman. Officers were unable to regain control of the XL bully before shooting it."
There's at least one of these incidents each week. I hadn't realised that our local XL Bullies actually ripped someone's hand off - rescues from England.
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
I really wish these pundits would put their money where their mouth (maybe they do, someone has to take the other side of our bets) and publish their betting record. Otherwise their incentives are completely misaligned (be boring and wrong is much better than exciting and wrong).
You're assuming that everyone places bets. There are even some PB regulars who don't.
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
I really wish these pundits would put their money where their mouth (maybe they do, someone has to take the other side of our bets) and publish their betting record. Otherwise their incentives are completely misaligned (be boring and wrong is much better than exciting and wrong).
You're assuming that everyone places bets. There are even some PB regulars who don't.
Everybody on PB should bet on politics. Those that don't should have their heads cut off. For a first offence. No need to be excessive
Probably totally wrong time of day to ask this but has anyone had any bets on French election? I haven't, and almost certainly won't due to lack of knowledge, although have had a few minutes trying to see if I could see something to do.
There does look like there's an arb between ladbrokes (11.0 to back DECIMAL) and polymarket (currently 12 bid BINARY) on the NFP most seats price if anyone is particularly interested
Unfortunately not. No knowledge, no value, no realistic high-street market. Betfred don't offer. Betfair Exchange don't offer. LadbrokesCoral give 1/50 on the LePenistes and the over/under is 258.5, to which my response is "fuctifino?" Apols.
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
I really wish these pundits would put their money where their mouth (maybe they do, someone has to take the other side of our bets) and publish their betting record. Otherwise their incentives are completely misaligned (be boring and wrong is much better than exciting and wrong).
You're assuming that everyone places bets. There are even some PB regulars who don't.
Re PB: The regulars who don't place bets are generally open about it. TBH some of the best analysts and most prolific posters here don't sound very good at betting quite honestly, most often due to excitability. And some of the best bettors here are kinda incoherent. That's all absolutely fine.
Pundits are a different beast though. I'm suggesting they should have to place bets as part of their job. At least if they want their predictions (as opposed to analysis) taken seriously. Cause if they can't beat the political betting markets (surely the easiest betting markets to beat? certainly I can only beat them and some novelty ones myself) then their punditry is worth less than just looking at the current price!
Wasn't Glasto originally a kind of hippy, deep green thing?
Now we have 100k wearing some kind of LED wristband which will be thrown away in the morning. Earth's resources?
Maybe Mark Fisher was right.
I've always find something kind of irritating about Coldplay but can't really put my finger on why...
Chris Martin is inherently irritating. And their songs (with a few exceptions) are lazy, mawkish and sentimental.
Their second album - A Rush of Blood to the Head - was properly good, mind. By far the best thing they've ever done.
Agreed.
I skimmed through the set this morning on iPlayer. I know their music quite well & have seen them live a couple of times I think. Most of the songs sound similar. Or maybe it’s just that Chris Martin’s limited vocal range makes them all sound similar.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
They can’t reissue them, but they can give you a pink ballot to complete, which will be put in the ballot box but set aside at the count.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
They can’t reissue them, but they can give you a pink ballot to complete, which will be put in the ballot box but set aside at the count.
Actually not sure you are correct Ian about that?
@DeclanF I had the same issue when my postal vote didn’t appear so I contacted the council who said that they can reissue the ballot papers. But, and it’s quite a big but, the replacement postal pack would have had to be collected in person from the council office showing ID. The original would have been cancelled by the council and therefore unusable.
Fortunately mine did appear but, yes, I would have gone to that trouble just to vote had I needed to.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
Security and accuracy. Would you trust Fujitsu with our democratic process?
Currently you're trusting the Post Office...
The Post Office are only losing votes. Online you're creating the potential for anyone to add lots of votes, anywhere and everywhere.
I did suggest early voting a few days ago, but I'm wondering whether I was right. Essentially, any time that you make voting easier, you also make electoral fraud easier.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
They can’t reissue them, but they can give you a pink ballot to complete, which will be put in the ballot box but set aside at the count.
Actually not sure you are correct Ian about that?
@DeclanF I had the same issue when my postal vote didn’t appear so I contacted the council who said that they can reissue the ballot papers. But, and it’s quite a big but, the replacement postal pack would have had to be collected in person from the council office showing ID. The original would have been cancelled by the council and therefore unusable.
Fortunately mine did appear but, yes, I would have gone to that trouble just to vote had I needed to.
I’m not sure they can do that. My understanding is that they can only issue a replacement white ballot paper if the all or most (the serial number bit must be returned) of the original is returned. My guess is that you were going to get pink ballots, and they spared you that piece of detail. You can’t “cancel” a ballot paper - you could easily have given it to a friend to slip into the box, and obviously they aren’t checked off by serial number from the ballot box.
I had a case once where I canvassed someone who had already torn their postal vote in half and put it in the bin along with all their kitchen refuse. I persuaded him to vote for me, and he retrieved his sorry looking ballot paper from the bin. I drove him down the town hall and they checked the bits, filled in lots of forms, and gave him a new one.
I’ve also been with people issued pink ballots if their original has gone missing.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
Security and accuracy. Would you trust Fujitsu with our democratic process?
Currently you're trusting the Post Office...
The Post Office are only losing votes. Online you're creating the potential for anyone to add lots of votes, anywhere and everywhere.
I did suggest early voting a few days ago, but I'm wondering whether I was right. Essentially, any time that you make voting easier, you also make electoral fraud easier.
How does early in person voting make fraud easier?
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
Security and accuracy. Would you trust Fujitsu with our democratic process?
Currently you're trusting the Post Office...
The Post Office are only losing votes. Online you're creating the potential for anyone to add lots of votes, anywhere and everywhere.
I did suggest early voting a few days ago, but I'm wondering whether I was right. Essentially, any time that you make voting easier, you also make electoral fraud easier.
Being slightly pedantic as I’m grumpy (very loud wedding reception directly below my hotel room!) but you mean Royal Mail don’t you, rather than the Post Office?
I agree with you though. Much as I’d love to see the system go electronic it’s too open to fraud and hacking.
I'm pissed off. So many shops have closed that the only ones within reach are Betfred and LadbrokesCoral (eliding the two to prevent disclosure). Either the constituency bets aren't available in the shops or the VERY NICE IF NOT FULLY INFORMED PEOPLE behind the desk just don't know and get confused when you ask...and confused people are very difficult to get service from.
So I'm a bit fucked. I appreciate few people on PB actually bet in shops instead of online, but does *anybody* know an actual physical shop that offers constituency bets?
Guys, I think you do/have bet in a physical shop. Do you know of a named physical shop that takes constituency bets? (eg shop X on Y street in town Z)
Never had a problem betting on a constitency market in a physical shop.
You have to write out the slip carefully, being very specific as to names, party and dates. Do not assume the staff will know there is a general election on. When you hand the slip in they will look puzzled and go to one of their computer screens to look it up and check the price. This will take time and you will probably have to help them ('How to you spell Islington?') but in due course you will get there and when they see on the screen the same details that you have written on your slip they will be happy, take your money and stamp your slip.
If the bet is large (say over £50) they will certainly phone head office for clearance. Again, this will take time while Head Office finds the appropriate expert (i.e. someone who knows who the PM is) but again if you show enough patience you should get on ok.
Expect similar delays when you go to collect your winnings, but it does work, believe me.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
Security and accuracy. Would you trust Fujitsu with our democratic process?
Currently you're trusting the Post Office...
The Post Office are only losing votes. Online you're creating the potential for anyone to add lots of votes, anywhere and everywhere.
I did suggest early voting a few days ago, but I'm wondering whether I was right. Essentially, any time that you make voting easier, you also make electoral fraud easier.
Pedantly, it’s the Royal Mail, not the Post Office.
(On actually good Reform seat bets, you can get prices around 10 or higher if you take the time to work it on zero seats, or bookies are also allowing it outright but I'd prefer to be able to trade out if I can. I think fair price for that is somewhere around 3-4 based essentially on the huge discrepancies between pollsters. DYOR etc).
I've traded out of my buy position on Reform seats.
I'm pissed off. So many shops have closed that the only ones within reach are Betfred and LadbrokesCoral (eliding the two to prevent disclosure). Either the constituency bets aren't available in the shops or the VERY NICE IF NOT FULLY INFORMED PEOPLE behind the desk just don't know and get confused when you ask...and confused people are very difficult to get service from.
So I'm a bit fucked. I appreciate few people on PB actually bet in shops instead of online, but does *anybody* know an actual physical shop that offers constituency bets?
Guys, I think you do/have bet in a physical shop. Do you know of a named physical shop that takes constituency bets? (eg shop X on Y street in town Z)
Never had a problem betting on a constitency market in a physical shop.
You have to write out the slip carefully, being very specific as to names, party and dates. Do not assume the staff will know there is a general election on. When you hand the slip in they will look puzzled and go to one of their computer screens to look it up and check the price. This will take time and you will probably have to help them ('How to you spell Islington?') but in due course you will get there and when they see on the screen the same details that you have written on your slip they will be happy, take your money and stamp your slip.
If the bet is large (say over £50) they will certainly phone head office for clearance. Again, this will take time while Head Office finds the appropriate expert (i.e. someone who knows who the PM is) but again if you show enough patience you should get on ok.
Expect similar delays when you go to collect your winnings, but it does work, believe me.
I've got a Clueless Corals and Betfred in town, as well as a Laddys.
My issue is I don't have the time so must stick to online.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
They can’t reissue them, but they can give you a pink ballot to complete, which will be put in the ballot box but set aside at the count.
Actually not sure you are correct Ian about that?
@DeclanF I had the same issue when my postal vote didn’t appear so I contacted the council who said that they can reissue the ballot papers. But, and it’s quite a big but, the replacement postal pack would have had to be collected in person from the council office showing ID. The original would have been cancelled by the council and therefore unusable.
Fortunately mine did appear but, yes, I would have gone to that trouble just to vote had I needed to.
I’m not sure they can do that. My understanding is that they can only issue a replacement white ballot paper if the all or most (the serial number bit must be returned) of the original is returned. My guess is that you were going to get pink ballots, and they spared you that piece of detail. You can’t “cancel” a ballot paper - you could easily have given it to a friend to slip into the box, and obviously they aren’t checked off by serial number from the ballot box.
I had a case once where I canvassed someone who had already torn their postal vote in half and put it in the bin along with all their kitchen refuse. I persuaded him to vote for me, and he retrieved his sorry looking ballot paper from the bin. I drove him down the town hall and they checked the bits, filled in lots of forms, and gave him a new one.
I’ve also been with people issued pink ballots if their original has gone missing.
I think you’re probably a bit out of date on this Ian.
This is from the Electoral Services Team, so yes they can do it (as well as cancel the original). All postal votes are checked thoroughly for matching signature, even if you go to the polling station to complete a form and put it in the box, so they definitely check them and can cancel them.
What most impressed me was the time of their reply: they’re working hard!
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
Security and accuracy. Would you trust Fujitsu with our democratic process?
Currently you're trusting the Post Office...
The Post Office are only losing votes. Online you're creating the potential for anyone to add lots of votes, anywhere and everywhere.
I did suggest early voting a few days ago, but I'm wondering whether I was right. Essentially, any time that you make voting easier, you also make electoral fraud easier.
How does early in person voting make fraud easier?
Counting was delayed in the 1945 election to allow the votes of those serving overseas to be collected, returned home and counted with the rest.
Stalin was astonished. He simply could not believe that the Government would not win in these circumstances.
(On actually good Reform seat bets, you can get prices around 10 or higher if you take the time to work it on zero seats, or bookies are also allowing it outright but I'd prefer to be able to trade out if I can. I think fair price for that is somewhere around 3-4 based essentially on the huge discrepancies between pollsters. DYOR etc).
I think the value is in the edges: either Reform outperforming handily, getting 18+% (where they could really start to take a lot of seats), or of their vote not turning up on the day, and them ending up on 1 or 0.
I'd sell the central bands on Betfair. And I'd definitely put a few quid on at 30s on Betfair on "Most Seats without Labour". (Yes, it's a likely loser, but you're being offered silly odds when you consider that there's still a week to go and it's perfectly possible the polls are understating them. Remember, they're second on vote share with a number of pollsters.)
There are brilliant odds on Reform getting under 10%.
Yes, they probably won't - and UKIP with Farage got near 13% in 2015 - but if it does bomb, and remember how they've consistently underperformed, then you're quids in.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
Security and accuracy. Would you trust Fujitsu with our democratic process?
Currently you're trusting the Post Office...
I would drastically reduce the availability of postal voting as well.
By the way @IanB2 , you can no longer just ‘slip it into the box’ on the day. That was changed in 2022. You now have to go to the staff and complete a supplementary form which includes explaining why your postal vote has not been posted.
They certainly check postal votes and they certainly can cancel them. Poor @OldKingCole had his vote in May rejected because of non-matching signature.
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
Looks credible, but we just don't know.
In GE2019 the exit poll/result was in line with the polls, but in GE2017 and GE2015 it really wasn't.
I think that makes a very credible forecast, with some pullback from the smaller parties as the Tory and tabloid last-minute scares bite.
It would put all of the in-campaign ELE chat in the same category as the Tories gain Bootle chat that was prevalent as Mrs May bestrode the world during the early 2017 campaign. Which is fair enough - campaign excitement at imminent extreme results fades into a more pedestrian outcome (not that Labour getting 400 is at all pedestrian, historically) as polling day approaches.
It makes the odds on Tory seats over 100 and over 140 very attractive, and I am putting some money on, partly for some consultation when the eagerly anticipated and we’ll deserved ELE doesn’t quite materialise.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
They can’t reissue them, but they can give you a pink ballot to complete, which will be put in the ballot box but set aside at the count.
Actually not sure you are correct Ian about that?
@DeclanF I had the same issue when my postal vote didn’t appear so I contacted the council who said that they can reissue the ballot papers. But, and it’s quite a big but, the replacement postal pack would have had to be collected in person from the council office showing ID. The original would have been cancelled by the council and therefore unusable.
Fortunately mine did appear but, yes, I would have gone to that trouble just to vote had I needed to.
I’m not sure they can do that. My understanding is that they can only issue a replacement white ballot paper if the all or most (the serial number bit must be returned) of the original is returned. My guess is that you were going to get pink ballots, and they spared you that piece of detail. You can’t “cancel” a ballot paper - you could easily have given it to a friend to slip into the box, and obviously they aren’t checked off by serial number from the ballot box.
I had a case once where I canvassed someone who had already torn their postal vote in half and put it in the bin along with all their kitchen refuse. I persuaded him to vote for me, and he retrieved his sorry looking ballot paper from the bin. I drove him down the town hall and they checked the bits, filled in lots of forms, and gave him a new one.
I’ve also been with people issued pink ballots if their original has gone missing.
I think you’re probably a bit out of date on this Ian.
This is from the Electoral Services Team, so yes they can do it (as well as cancel the original). All postal votes are checked thoroughly for matching signature, even if you go to the polling station to complete a form and put it in the box, so they definitely check them and can cancel them.
What most impressed me was the time of their reply: they’re working hard!
Yes, a particular vote returned by post could be cancelled, but who is to say it won’t be slipped into the ballot box by your accomplice?
You’re right, though, that there does seem to be a procedure for it - for the OP, the details are here:
I'm pissed off. So many shops have closed that the only ones within reach are Betfred and LadbrokesCoral (eliding the two to prevent disclosure). Either the constituency bets aren't available in the shops or the VERY NICE IF NOT FULLY INFORMED PEOPLE behind the desk just don't know and get confused when you ask...and confused people are very difficult to get service from.
So I'm a bit fucked. I appreciate few people on PB actually bet in shops instead of online, but does *anybody* know an actual physical shop that offers constituency bets?
Guys, I think you do/have bet in a physical shop. Do you know of a named physical shop that takes constituency bets? (eg shop X on Y street in town Z)
Never had a problem betting on a constitency market in a physical shop.
You have to write out the slip carefully, being very specific as to names, party and dates. Do not assume the staff will know there is a general election on. When you hand the slip in they will look puzzled and go to one of their computer screens to look it up and check the price. This will take time and you will probably have to help them ('How to you spell Islington?') but in due course you will get there and when they see on the screen the same details that you have written on your slip they will be happy, take your money and stamp your slip.
If the bet is large (say over £50) they will certainly phone head office for clearance. Again, this will take time while Head Office finds the appropriate expert (i.e. someone who knows who the PM is) but again if you show enough patience you should get on ok.
Expect similar delays when you go to collect your winnings, but it does work, believe me.
I've got a Clueless Corals and Betfred in town, as well as a Laddys.
My issue is I don't have the time so must stick to online.
Wasn't Glasto originally a kind of hippy, deep green thing?
Now we have 100k wearing some kind of LED wristband which will be thrown away in the morning. Earth's resources?
Maybe Mark Fisher was right.
I've always find something kind of irritating about Coldplay but can't really put my finger on why...
I used to say "I don't know if I dislike Chris Martin because he reminds be of Jenson Button, or if I dislike Jenson Button because he reminds me of Chris Martin."
But, actually, I don't mind either these days. Can understand why people are a bit sniffy of Coldplay, but they've been good tonight. Dua Lipa last night...
Coldplay are absolutely brilliant.
Right up until the point Chris Martin opens his mouth.
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
I think CON would breath a big sigh of relief after all the MRP polls we've seen if that was the outcome...
So Kellner thinks the polls are wrong.
Does he indicate why?
Baxtered, those shares give 430/103/68 and a majority of 210. Now we all know Baxter's little tool is somewhat crude, but it does not necessarily lean one way rather than the other. It as likely as not to underestimate the majority as overestimate it.
So a little bit of narrative explanation from PK would be helpful.
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
Looks credible, but we just don't know.
In GE2019 the exit poll/result was in line with the polls, but in GE2017 and GE2015 it really wasn't.
I think that makes a very credible forecast, with some pullback from the smaller parties as the Tory and tabloid last-minute scares bite.
It would put all of the in-campaign ELE chat in the same category as the Tories gain Bootle chat that was prevalent as Mrs May bestrode the world during the early 2017 campaign. Which is fair enough - campaign excitement at imminent extreme results fades into a more pedestrian outcome (not that Labour getting 400 is at all pedestrian, historically) as polling day approaches.
It makes the odds on Tory seats over 100 and over 140 very attractive, and I am putting some money on, partly for some consultation when the eagerly anticipated and we’ll deserved ELE doesn’t quite materialise.
Agreed.
As y’all know I’ve been holding out for this scenario which might be expectation management. But I’ve been predicting:
Lab 39 Con 25 LibDem 15 Reform 14 Green 4
= Cons seats around 140 and Lab majority of 160
(LibDems may be a bit high otherwise I’m happy with this prediction)
(On actually good Reform seat bets, you can get prices around 10 or higher if you take the time to work it on zero seats, or bookies are also allowing it outright but I'd prefer to be able to trade out if I can. I think fair price for that is somewhere around 3-4 based essentially on the huge discrepancies between pollsters. DYOR etc).
I think the value is in the edges: either Reform outperforming handily, getting 18+% (where they could really start to take a lot of seats), or of their vote not turning up on the day, and them ending up on 1 or 0.
I'd sell the central bands on Betfair. And I'd definitely put a few quid on at 30s on Betfair on "Most Seats without Labour". (Yes, it's a likely loser, but you're being offered silly odds when you consider that there's still a week to go and it's perfectly possible the polls are understating them. Remember, they're second on vote share with a number of pollsters.)
There are brilliant odds on Reform getting under 10%.
Yes, they probably won't - and UKIP with Farage got near 13% in 2015 - but if it does bomb, and remember how they've consistently underperformed, then you're quids in.
Yep 27-1 at Bet365 - I think Farage blow up a week too late for it to actually happen but the odds are high enough that I put a few quid on it. I suspect there will get 13% or so but those bands are so narrow (2%) that I'm not touching them..
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
Security and accuracy. Would you trust Fujitsu with our democratic process?
Currently you're trusting the Post Office...
The Post Office are only losing votes. Online you're creating the potential for anyone to add lots of votes, anywhere and everywhere.
I did suggest early voting a few days ago, but I'm wondering whether I was right. Essentially, any time that you make voting easier, you also make electoral fraud easier.
Being slightly pedantic as I’m grumpy (very loud wedding reception directly below my hotel room!) but you mean Royal Mail don’t you, rather than the Post Office?
I agree with you though. Much as I’d love to see the system go electronic it’s too open to fraud and hacking.
Estonia has had a very secure e-voting system since 2005 (bearing in mind its eastern neighbour, the country needs to have very strong security around everything online). In 2023 more than half of votes cast were done online. There are several back ups in security and you can also change your mind online or deliver a paper vote to the polling place on the election day itself, which cancels your online vote. The system has been criticised by mostly foreign analysts, but the points they have made do not seem to undermine the overall integrity of the ballot, and there is a high level of trust in the system.
However, what Estonia has, which the UK does not is a a very strong digital ID system. it is based upon a chip token (either on the national ID card or on a validated mobile smart phone), together with an entry PIN and a validation PIN, so it is more secure than getting into say, a bank account.
So far it has worked very well, and has been popular and probably boosted turnout. It is seen here as generally a very positive thing. So far thee has not been a move towards direct democracy, or even more referenda, and though some would like to see this, there is a mistrust of changing the constitution to allow it. Estonia knows from its time under Soviet occupation, how popular votes h´can be rigged, and is therefore quite constitutionally conservative.
Validation of ID online is something that has proven to be a very strong tool and has drastically reduced administration costs for both government and the private sector. It is something that the UK should actively consider.
Harrow East I find interesting because it's always had a decent Conservative vote in the 30-35% range even in its worst years, and has gone as high as 55%.
4/1 for a hold. Must be in play (or nominally in play) if Rishi has visited it.
Harrow East I find interesting because it's always had a decent Conservative vote in the 30-35% range even in its worst years, and has gone as high as 55%.
4/1 for a hold. Must be in play (or nominally in play) if Rishi has visited it.
So I've had a taste.
That's a bold statement given the ineptitude of his campaign so far.
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
Looks credible, but we just don't know.
In GE2019 the exit poll/result was in line with the polls, but in GE2017 and GE2015 it really wasn't.
I think that makes a very credible forecast, with some pullback from the smaller parties as the Tory and tabloid last-minute scares bite.
It would put all of the in-campaign ELE chat in the same category as the Tories gain Bootle chat that was prevalent as Mrs May bestrode the world during the early 2017 campaign. Which is fair enough - campaign excitement at imminent extreme results fades into a more pedestrian outcome (not that Labour getting 400 is at all pedestrian, historically) as polling day approaches.
It makes the odds on Tory seats over 100 and over 140 very attractive, and I am putting some money on, partly for some consultation when the eagerly anticipated and we’ll deserved ELE doesn’t quite materialise.
Agreed.
As y’all know I’ve been holding out for this scenario which might be expectation management. But I’ve been predicting:
Lab 39 Con 25 LibDem 15 Reform 14 Green 4
= Cons seats around 140 and Lab majority of 160
(LibDems may be a bit high otherwise I’m happy with this prediction)
I think RefUK coming fourth is an interesting bet, but with the Lib Dems at 15%, they are most likely going to be at the upper end of their seat forecasts.
How many seats do you think this gives each party?
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
Security and accuracy. Would you trust Fujitsu with our democratic process?
Currently you're trusting the Post Office...
The Post Office are only losing votes. Online you're creating the potential for anyone to add lots of votes, anywhere and everywhere.
I did suggest early voting a few days ago, but I'm wondering whether I was right. Essentially, any time that you make voting easier, you also make electoral fraud easier.
How does early in person voting make fraud easier?
It makes it easier to vote in two different places if you are registered to vote in more than one constituency. It would certainly put the temptation in front of a lot more people, who wouldn't make an extra trip between two constituencies to do so, but might be tempted if they happened to spend time in each residence during the voting period.
Granted, my "wondering whether I was right" is a bit of an over reaction to a marginal extra risk.
By the way @IanB2 , you can no longer just ‘slip it into the box’ on the day. That was changed in 2022. You now have to go to the staff and complete a supplementary form which includes explaining why your postal vote has not been posted.
They certainly check postal votes and they certainly can cancel them. Poor @OldKingCole had his vote in May rejected because of non-matching signature.
You’re missing the point, or perhaps not thinking deviously enough.
You apply for a postal vote. You claim it hasn’t arrived (but it has), and you apply for a replacement. You fill in the replacement, and the ERO goes through the procedure for cancelling your original from the list of postal votes. But the original isn’t posted back - you give it to your friend (from Surrey, say) and they slip it into the box, folded inside their own.
At verification stage, the discrepancy between number of papers and number of ballots issued might be spotted, if they haven’t made a compensating error (being one or two under isn’t uncommon, as sometimes voters wander off with their papers), and if they are one over there will be a lot of head scratching and rechecking, as potentially it’s a serious matter. But ultimately the box will be allowed through into the count as they won’t stop the whole thing just for one apparently extra vote, and they can’t check the serial numbers of each paper at the count, as papers must always be in view of the scrutineers and kept face up. If there were a ton of them, however, that could be seen as serious and I don’t know what they would do.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
Security and accuracy. Would you trust Fujitsu with our democratic process?
Currently you're trusting the Post Office...
The Post Office are only losing votes. Online you're creating the potential for anyone to add lots of votes, anywhere and everywhere.
I did suggest early voting a few days ago, but I'm wondering whether I was right. Essentially, any time that you make voting easier, you also make electoral fraud easier.
Being slightly pedantic as I’m grumpy (very loud wedding reception directly below my hotel room!) but you mean Royal Mail don’t you, rather than the Post Office?
I agree with you though. Much as I’d love to see the system go electronic it’s too open to fraud and hacking.
Edmund does, yes. I was being polite by not pointing it out, obvs.
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
I think CON would breath a big sigh of relief after all the MRP polls we've seen if that was the outcome...
So Kellner thinks the polls are wrong.
Does he indicate why?
Baxtered, those shares give 430/103/68 and a majority of 210. Now we all know Baxter's little tool is somewhat crude, but it does not necessarily lean one way rather than the other. It as likely as not to underestimate the majority as overestimate it.
So a little bit of narrative explanation from PK would be helpful.
He thinks Reform will undercook (I agree, based on the evidence I've seen - and illustrious pb'ers like Alistair Meeks and Sean Fear have identified the same) and the Tories tend to ever slightly outperform share on the day, and this would only be by 2-3%, and Labour underperform? Possibly due to real turnout?
We've also had polls showing Labour in the 37-39% range. OGH used to have a rule about that.
Comments
We've had 18 Prime Ministers; but a majority of those didn't get the job via a General Election but by internal party mechanisms.
We've had swings from Labour to Conservative and vice versa, but actually when a party gets power they often keep it for more than a decade. Excepting 1945 to 1951, and 1964 to 1979, parties hold power for far longer than you think they would. 13 years of Conservative from 1951, 18 years from 1979 and 14 years from 2010 to now. 13 for Labour from 1997.
And the other one that TSE often reminds us of: Ted Heath is the only leader to go into an election with the other party having a majority at dissolution and turn it into a majority for his party. Can Starmer add his name to that very short list in 6 days time?
Shame in a way. We could do some much more nuanced democracy (e.g. I've been discussing with friends today the idea of a pi chart where government spending could be democratically allocated; it probably doesn't go well though)
The best I can find is 14/1 with Paddy Power on Reform taking Mansfield, Clapton, and Yarmouth, which such an improbable result would presumably imply.
The GALAXY....
If Yourtown Unitary Authority wants to run meals on wheels next year, it can damn well count those ballots faster. We could have recounts, but it would mean converting three parks into data centres.
I'm sure someone would be well up for putting it in their plan for government.
Fast forward a couple of albums and they are absurdly overproduced: when Phil Spector first did the "Wall of Sound" it was cool. But it has been overdone to high heaven. And you get the feeling that Chris Martin and Co were sitting around going "it's not there yet... what do we need to add..." NO CHRIS, YOU DON'T NEED TO ADD ANYTHING. REMOVE THINGS.
It's Rowling disease all over again. An unwillingness to edit, to cut, and to reduce to the best bits.
In fact, I'm going to listen to a Rush of Blood to the Head now, because it is superb.
Also: I listened to that album about 100 times when I broke up with my then girlfriend.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Martin_(English_politician)#:~:text=He stood for Yeovil at,Secretary Rt Hon Douglas Hurd.
I'd sell the central bands on Betfair. And I'd definitely put a few quid on at 30s on Betfair on "Most Seats without Labour". (Yes, it's a likely loser, but you're being offered silly odds when you consider that there's still a week to go and it's perfectly possible the polls are understating them. Remember, they're second on vote share with a number of pollsters.)
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1807165486117114058
Oh yes please.
Masts next please Sir Keir!
I think The Times will come out for Labour and The Sun won't endorse any particular party but will urge their readers to vote for any party that will prevent a Labour "supermajority" lol
Since 1964: Dartford
Since Feb 1974: Loughborough, Northampton North, Watford
Since 1979: Gloucester, Harrow East, Worcester
https://pa.media/blogs/pa-editors-picks/what-are-the-bellwether-seats-at-the-general-election/
So I'm a bit fucked. I appreciate few people on PB actually bet in shops instead of online, but does *anybody* know an actual physical shop that offers constituency bets?
Guys, I think you do/have bet in a physical shop. Do you know of a named physical shop that takes constituency bets? (eg shop X on Y street in town Z)
Police officers shot the dog after it attacked members of the public and injured a woman. Officers were unable to regain control of the XL bully before shooting it."
https://news.sky.com/story/xl-bully-shot-after-attacking-and-injuring-a-woman-in-manchester-13160980
However it's a fairly convoluted form of online voting where the steps are that the returning officer in Oxford sends a ballot paper to my brother in Leeds, my brother sends me a scan of the ballot paper (originally email, last one was Signal because he's quite tech savvy), I reply with an instruction about what mark to make on the ballot paper, he makes the mark I request (I hope he does this although I have no proof) and sends the paper back to Oxford via the totally reliable medium of the British Post Office.
I definitely see the argument for not involving computers in things since there are various ways you could break this, for example if there was malware on my computer someone could intercept the vote before it gets to me and cast it themselves, or they could guess which way I would vote and stop me getting the vote, and maybe send me a fake one. But we still have this in the current system, we just have a bunch of other steps as well.
I think you could easily design a system way safer than the current one. The problem is that it's not necessarily the one the government would choose...
* with a gap in between for when Labour disfranchized me
For example for a turnout of between 57.50% - 60.00%, Betfred are offering 11/2 ... that's 37.5% better than the 4/1 odds quoted by Ladbrokes/Coral.
Looking at the next band up, i.e. for a turnout of between 60.00% - 62.5%, Ladbrokes are offering 7/2 which is 40% better than the 5/2 odds available from BetVictor.
You pays yer money and you takes yer pick!
Your 30s for Most Seats without Labour is an interesting one though which I'd deffo be backing at >50s. Honestly if I were either more or less drunk than atm I may have been following you in 30s. Thanks, will keep eye out.
You can also ask them to call head office to explain to them how to do it to put a tenner on. And once they've ended that phone call, you can change your bet to ten hundred*
*Can you actually put a grand on a constituency bet in a physical bookies at odds under 1/5 on without someone senior looking at it? Doubt it. ESPECIALLY in the current climate.
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats
• Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats
• Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats
• Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats
• Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats
• SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats
• Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats
• Labour majority: 150
They are not paid to be right. They are paid to attract attention. Professional pollsters do it to advertise themselves and their services. The new Goodwin-class pollsters do it to promulgate a political position. Although they do leave the market if they get it wrong (eg Angus Reid) the individuals don't get sacked if they get it wrong.
There does look like there's an arb between ladbrokes (11.0 to back DECIMAL) and polymarket (currently 12 bid BINARY) on the NFP most seats price if anyone is particularly interested
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/biden-family-path-forward-disastrous-debate-mess-rcna159591?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma&taid=6680aa7a5ce9f80001488ea4
...doesn't that basically mean that he's dropping out?
Like if he was still in he'd just be meeting his family.
Sensible policies for a happier Britain, as I think we can all agree.
“The premise of the story is not accurate,” the official said.
On the travel to Camp David, “It was public in our guidance before the debate. It’s been on the schedule for weeks. There is nothing more to it.”
Officials said the Biden family is taking a family photo at Camp David.
https://x.com/ChrisDJackson/status/1807227431465693672
Re PB: The regulars who don't place bets are generally open about it. TBH some of the best analysts and most prolific posters here don't sound very good at betting quite honestly, most often due to excitability. And some of the best bettors here are kinda incoherent. That's all absolutely fine.
Pundits are a different beast though. I'm suggesting they should have to place bets as part of their job. At least if they want their predictions (as opposed to analysis) taken seriously. Cause if they can't beat the political betting markets (surely the easiest betting markets to beat? certainly I can only beat them and some novelty ones myself) then their punditry is worth less than just looking at the current price!
I’ve seen Coldplay once or it might be twice I think at Glasto. Difficult to keep count as they are such a headline fixture
They did well last night if you like that kind of thing but I know what you mean.
I’m personally with you on this but chacun à son goût and lots of people love them.
I skimmed through the set this morning on iPlayer. I know their music quite well & have seen them live a couple of times I think. Most of the songs sound similar. Or maybe it’s just that Chris Martin’s limited vocal range makes them all sound similar.
Oooh that was a bit bitchy.
Much of it is elevator music imho.
Betting PostGood morning, everyone.
F1: pair of bets for today's race: safety car at 1.73 and Piastri for a podium at 6.4 (hedged at evens).
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/06/austria-pre-race-2024.html
@DeclanF I had the same issue when my postal vote didn’t appear so I contacted the council who said that they can reissue the ballot papers. But, and it’s quite a big but, the replacement postal pack would have had to be collected in person from the council office showing ID. The original would have been cancelled by the council and therefore unusable.
Fortunately mine did appear but, yes, I would have gone to that trouble just to vote had I needed to.
I did suggest early voting a few days ago, but I'm wondering whether I was right. Essentially, any time that you make voting easier, you also make electoral fraud easier.
And 250 tanks. And nearly 600 Armoured Fighting Vehicles. And killed/maimed 34,000 Russian troops.
Meanwhile, in June Ukraine has produced 150,000 drones.
I had a case once where I canvassed someone who had already torn their postal vote in half and put it in the bin along with all their kitchen refuse. I persuaded him to vote for me, and he retrieved his sorry looking ballot paper from the bin. I drove him down the town hall and they checked the bits, filled in lots of forms, and gave him a new one.
I’ve also been with people issued pink ballots if their original has gone missing.
I agree with you though. Much as I’d love to see the system go electronic it’s too open to fraud and hacking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJhz7NjApzY
Sommersprossen by UKW
Ich bin ja so verschossen
in deine Sommersprossen -
von Kopf bis zu den Flossen
bist du voll Sommersprossen
in die bin ich verschossen.
You have to write out the slip carefully, being very specific as to names, party and dates. Do not assume the staff will know there is a general election on. When you hand the slip in they will look puzzled and go to one of their computer screens to look it up and check the price. This will take time and you will probably have to help them ('How to you spell Islington?') but in due course you will get there and when they see on the screen the same details that you have written on your slip they will be happy, take your money and stamp your slip.
If the bet is large (say over £50) they will certainly phone head office for clearance. Again, this will take time while Head Office finds the appropriate expert (i.e. someone who knows who the PM is) but again if you show enough patience you should get on ok.
Expect similar delays when you go to collect your winnings, but it does work, believe me.
My issue is I don't have the time so must stick to online.
In GE2019 the exit poll/result was in line with the polls, but in GE2017 and GE2015 it really wasn't.
This is from the Electoral Services Team, so yes they can do it (as well as cancel the original). All postal votes are checked thoroughly for matching signature, even if you go to the polling station to complete a form and put it in the box, so they definitely check them and can cancel them.
What most impressed me was the time of their reply: they’re working hard!
Stalin was astonished. He simply could not believe that the Government would not win in these circumstances.
Yes, they probably won't - and UKIP with Farage got near 13% in 2015 - but if it does bomb, and remember how they've consistently underperformed, then you're quids in.
They certainly check postal votes and they certainly can cancel them. Poor @OldKingCole had his vote in May rejected because of non-matching signature.
It would put all of the in-campaign ELE chat in the same category as the Tories gain Bootle chat that was prevalent as Mrs May bestrode the world during the early 2017 campaign. Which is fair enough - campaign excitement at imminent extreme results fades into a more pedestrian outcome (not that Labour getting 400 is at all pedestrian, historically) as polling day approaches.
It makes the odds on Tory seats over 100 and over 140 very attractive, and I am putting some money on, partly for some consultation when the eagerly anticipated and we’ll deserved ELE doesn’t quite materialise.
You’re right, though, that there does seem to be a procedure for it - for the OP, the details are here:
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/guidance-returning-officers-administering-local-government-elections-england/absent-voting/issuing-and-distributing-postal-votes/re-issuing-postal-ballot-packs/procedure-re-issuing-lost/not-received-postal-votes
This appears to have been a change in 2001.
Some of their staff have a pulse.
Right up until the point Chris Martin opens his mouth.
Does he indicate why?
Baxtered, those shares give 430/103/68 and a majority of 210. Now we all know Baxter's little tool is somewhat crude, but it does not necessarily lean one way rather than the other. It as likely as not to underestimate the majority as overestimate it.
So a little bit of narrative explanation from PK would be helpful.
As y’all know I’ve been holding out for this scenario which might be expectation management. But I’ve been predicting:
Lab 39
Con 25
LibDem 15
Reform 14
Green 4
= Cons seats around 140 and Lab majority of 160
(LibDems may be a bit high otherwise I’m happy with this prediction)
Suspect this is about the paper's establishment wanting to be seen to officially back the winning side.
However, what Estonia has, which the UK does not is a a very strong digital ID system. it is based upon a chip token (either on the national ID card or on a validated mobile smart phone), together with an entry PIN and a validation PIN, so it is more secure than getting into say, a bank account.
So far it has worked very well, and has been popular and probably boosted turnout. It is seen here as generally a very positive thing. So far thee has not been a move towards direct democracy, or even more referenda, and though some would like to see this, there is a mistrust of changing the constitution to allow it. Estonia knows from its time under Soviet occupation, how popular votes h´can be rigged, and is therefore quite constitutionally conservative.
Validation of ID online is something that has proven to be a very strong tool and has drastically reduced administration costs for both government and the private sector. It is something that the UK should actively consider.
https://www.london.gov.uk/who-we-are/what-london-assembly-does/questions-mayor/find-an-answer/electoral-fraud-and-malpractice-tower-hamlets
Although it went rather wider than that.
That's also the only case I know of since Ireland in 1918 where there were validated allegations of impersonation at voting stations.
4/1 for a hold. Must be in play (or nominally in play) if Rishi has visited it.
So I've had a taste.
How many seats do you think this gives each party?
Granted, my "wondering whether I was right" is a bit of an over reaction to a marginal extra risk.
You apply for a postal vote. You claim it hasn’t arrived (but it has), and you apply for a replacement. You fill in the replacement, and the ERO goes through the procedure for cancelling your original from the list of postal votes. But the original isn’t posted back - you give it to your friend (from Surrey, say) and they slip it into the box, folded inside their own.
At verification stage, the discrepancy between number of papers and number of ballots issued might be spotted, if they haven’t made a compensating error (being one or two under isn’t uncommon, as sometimes voters wander off with their papers), and if they are one over there will be a lot of head scratching and rechecking, as potentially it’s a serious matter. But ultimately the box will be allowed through into the count as they won’t stop the whole thing just for one apparently extra vote, and they can’t check the serial numbers of each paper at the count, as papers must always be in view of the scrutineers and kept face up. If there were a ton of them, however, that could be seen as serious and I don’t know what they would do.
We've also had polls showing Labour in the 37-39% range. OGH used to have a rule about that.