Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I am voting Tory.
You are planning to vote Labour to spite your face.
Something you'll spend the next 5 years complaining about.
I will not be shy of telling you: "you voted for it."
That post contained such a mine of surprising information I don’t know where to start.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy. As well they might. It is a foolish and ignorant one....
The only people who provoked Russia and Putin were the Ukrainian people who had the temerity to reject a Russian stooge as their leader and the likelihood of a future using outdoor toilets as loyal subjects of the Russkiy Mir whilst being robbed blind by the oligarchy. They looked west to the progress made in the former bloc and chose that for their future in a legitimate election. It began with the Maidan revolution - a pure demonstration of self determination. Hitchens, not unusually, is wrong.
You mean an illegal coup by peoole primarily in the west of the country against a government elected freely and fairly by people primarily in the east of the country.
You will presumably be content then, if Starmers government, which will have its powerbase in the north, becomes exceptionally unpopular, but a motion of no confidence to remove him fails, for radical conservatives in the south to go all "Citizen Smith", storm parliament, shoot up the TUC headquarters and force Starmer to flee the country, then dissolve parliament and hold new elections?
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
You have! I've been doing online voting in British elections since 2001. *
However it's a fairly convoluted form of online voting where the steps are that the returning officer in Oxford sends a ballot paper to my brother in Leeds, my brother sends me a scan of the ballot paper (originally email, last one was Signal because he's quite tech savvy), I reply with an instruction about what mark to make on the ballot paper, he makes the mark I request (I hope he does this although I have no proof) and sends the paper back to Oxford via the totally reliable medium of the British Post Office.
I definitely see the argument for not involving computers in things since there are various ways you could break this, for example if there was malware on my computer someone could intercept the vote before it gets to me and cast it themselves, or they could guess which way I would vote and stop me getting the vote, and maybe send me a fake one. But we still have this in the current system, we just have a bunch of other steps as well.
I think you could easily design a system way safer than the current one. The problem is that it's not necessarily the one the government would choose...
* with a gap in between for when Labour disfranchized me
I don't see why online voting should be a bigger security risk or more problematic than online banking to which everyone commits their life finances without a second thought.
Ya but banking apps and online services are regularly hit. 4 went down just this week.
Do we really want that situation with online voting?
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
20% will be pretty brutal. It only becomes ELE if that 20% is smeared pretty evenly across a stack of seats and they are bowled by concentrated tactical voting combined with RefUKers taking chunks out of them.
I don’t expect the Nigel to win any more than a handful of seats at most. But the kind of people who will vote for them won’t be put off by the “shock” revelations of recent days.
Ultimately it’s this: will “we’re finished but please don’t kill us” pleas work? Or will voters tactical vote the life out of them?
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
I’m quietly hopeful there are corners of the Conservative Party in a similar degree of denial before 10pm on Thursday but I expect they’re more realistic.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
You have! I've been doing online voting in British elections since 2001. *
However it's a fairly convoluted form of online voting where the steps are that the returning officer in Oxford sends a ballot paper to my brother in Leeds, my brother sends me a scan of the ballot paper (originally email, last one was Signal because he's quite tech savvy), I reply with an instruction about what mark to make on the ballot paper, he makes the mark I request (I hope he does this although I have no proof) and sends the paper back to Oxford via the totally reliable medium of the British Post Office.
I definitely see the argument for not involving computers in things since there are various ways you could break this, for example if there was malware on my computer someone could intercept the vote before it gets to me and cast it themselves, or they could guess which way I would vote and stop me getting the vote, and maybe send me a fake one. But we still have this in the current system, we just have a bunch of other steps as well.
I think you could easily design a system way safer than the current one. The problem is that it's not necessarily the one the government would choose...
* with a gap in between for when Labour disfranchized me
I don't see why online voting should be a bigger security risk or more problematic than online banking to which everyone commits their life finances without a second thought.
They should get Fujitsu in to design a system. What could possibly go wrong?
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
Looks credible, but we just don't know.
In GE2019 the exit poll/result was in line with the polls, but in GE2017 and GE2015 it really wasn't.
I think that makes a very credible forecast, with some pullback from the smaller parties as the Tory and tabloid last-minute scares bite.
It would put all of the in-campaign ELE chat in the same category as the Tories gain Bootle chat that was prevalent as Mrs May bestrode the world during the early 2017 campaign. Which is fair enough - campaign excitement at imminent extreme results fades into a more pedestrian outcome (not that Labour getting 400 is at all pedestrian, historically) as polling day approaches.
It makes the odds on Tory seats over 100 and over 140 very attractive, and I am putting some money on, partly for some consultation when the eagerly anticipated and we’ll deserved ELE doesn’t quite materialise.
I'm still mulling over buying at 100+ seats.
My instinct tells me it's a buy, but I also don't want to lose my shirt in case a revolution is brewing.
[probably isn't]
I’ve just placed a bet on Cons 100-149 seats @ 3/1 with Betfair
I reckon that’s great value.
I may be completely wrong but I suspect some of the doomsday and ELE talk is wildly misplaced. And this will be the election when MRPs are generally derided.
Sure. Also quite funny, though, given you've derided me for over a year that an absolutely seismic asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs catastrophe is coming ("you need to get out on the streets" etc.) that you're now more bullish about the Tories than I am.
Heathener's ever-so-occasionally-mentioned Surrey friend is clearly now voting Tory again....
I have a tory friend in Surrey?
Actually I don’t think she is but I may find out today as I’m on my way there soon from Salisbury for the week. She’s very disillusioned with the party that she feels has left her behind not the other way around.
However, I think some of this ELE talk is wild. In some ways I hope I’m wrong, although I don’t want to see Reform surging either.
Cons 100-200 seats feels remarkably solid ground to me given the available odds.
No, I think that you are the Heatherdamus of this board, for predicting this sort of result 2 years out.
That Tories are feeling positive about a prediction of 155 seats is telling. It could be half that easily, but 155 is losing more than half of their 2019 seats despite redistributing and other voter suppression methods like voter ID.
That would be the worst Conservative performance since the war, and is now considered a stretch target.
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
Looks credible, but we just don't know.
In GE2019 the exit poll/result was in line with the polls, but in GE2017 and GE2015 it really wasn't.
I think that makes a very credible forecast, with some pullback from the smaller parties as the Tory and tabloid last-minute scares bite.
It would put all of the in-campaign ELE chat in the same category as the Tories gain Bootle chat that was prevalent as Mrs May bestrode the world during the early 2017 campaign. Which is fair enough - campaign excitement at imminent extreme results fades into a more pedestrian outcome (not that Labour getting 400 is at all pedestrian, historically) as polling day approaches.
It makes the odds on Tory seats over 100 and over 140 very attractive, and I am putting some money on, partly for some consultation when the eagerly anticipated and we’ll deserved ELE doesn’t quite materialise.
I'm still mulling over buying at 100+ seats.
My instinct tells me it's a buy, but I also don't want to lose my shirt in case a revolution is brewing.
[probably isn't]
I’ve just placed a bet on Cons 100-149 seats @ 3/1 with Betfair
I reckon that’s great value.
I may be completely wrong but I suspect some of the doomsday and ELE talk is wildly misplaced. And this will be the election when MRPs are generally derided.
Check out Betfair's two markets entitled "How many seats will the Conservatives lose". Base is 365.
I'm more pessimistic of Con chances than you but you can get the following:
225 -249 band (implies 116-140 seats) at 9 200-224 band (implies 141-165 seats) at 16
I'm pissed off. So many shops have closed that the only ones within reach are Betfred and LadbrokesCoral (eliding the two to prevent disclosure). Either the constituency bets aren't available in the shops or the VERY NICE IF NOT FULLY INFORMED PEOPLE behind the desk just don't know and get confused when you ask...and confused people are very difficult to get service from.
So I'm a bit fucked. I appreciate few people on PB actually bet in shops instead of online, but does *anybody* know an actual physical shop that offers constituency bets?
Guys, I think you do/have bet in a physical shop. Do you know of a named physical shop that takes constituency bets? (eg shop X on Y street in town Z)
Never had a problem betting on a constitency market in a physical shop.
You have to write out the slip carefully, being very specific as to names, party and dates. Do not assume the staff will know there is a general election on. When you hand the slip in they will look puzzled and go to one of their computer screens to look it up and check the price. This will take time and you will probably have to help them ('How to you spell Islington?') but in due course you will get there and when they see on the screen the same details that you have written on your slip they will be happy, take your money and stamp your slip.
If the bet is large (say over £50) they will certainly phone head office for clearance. Again, this will take time while Head Office finds the appropriate expert (i.e. someone who knows who the PM is) but again if you show enough patience you should get on ok.
Expect similar delays when you go to collect your winnings, but it does work, believe me.
One of the best bits of in person betting is getting banned for winning too much. I was actually putting bets on for some experts (themselves banned), a long time ago, but the way the manager delivered the news still sticks with me.
The best advert for Piers Corbyns long range weather forecasts is that he started the business after being banned by the bookies for winning once too often in long range weather bets.
Do you have any evidence for this? I mean, how many long range weather forecast bets can you find on Ladbrokes.com?
@rcs1000 will this do (after a few conjuncting words banged into Google)?
Evidence is there if you look for it. For example this 1999 article by Wired.
"Another sign he's not your everyday weatherman: the conspicuously displayed photocopy of a check for £2,291 hanging on the wall. Unique among meteorologists, Corbyn bets on his forecasts. Unusual among bettors of any stripe, he wins regularly. The check on the wall is a payout from London bookmaker William Hill on one of their monthly bets."
And from Graham Sharpe formerly of William Hill, in the Oldie, 21 years later in 2020.
"YOU BET THERE'S something problematic about Corbyns - specifically when it comes to gambling odds..
When he won the 2015 election to become leader of the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn had started the race as a 200/1 no-hoper in the betting book I was then promoting in my role at William Hill...
I should have known betting against a Corbyn was likely to prove costly, I suppose - after all, Jeremy's brother Piers had been taking money from my company for years.
But Piers hadn't been doing so by standing for election - no, his path to profit was a meteorological one.
Eventually, Piers' betting business became uneconomic enough for us to decide that maybe his weather wagers were too hot to handle on a regular basis as they were becoming wide-ranging and difficult to adjudicate on.
However, to this day, Piers' website for the WeatherAction forecasting service declares:
'The unique power of the forecasts has also been proven by the profits on Scientific Weather Bets with William Hill at odds and verification organized independently by the UK Met Office.
In 4,000 Weather Test Bets over 12 years with William Hill, Weather Action forecasts made a profit of some 40% (£20,000). The Odds were statistically fair and set by the Met Office before being shortened by William Hill by a standard 20%; the results were then provided by the Met Office for William Hill to settle each bet.'"
The world of weather forecasting has changed enormously in the last 25 years.
The other article is perhaps more interesting... except that the words don't really make sense. Like "The Odds were statistically fair and set by the Met Office before being shortened by William Hill by a standard 20%".
What does that even mean? The odds were set by that famous bookmaker the Met Office?
Or are you saying that the Met Office made forecasts, and if you'd used their probability predictions rather than the actual odds, then you'd have made money? Which might well be true. Just as if my Aunt Sarah was called Simon. And had balls. And a wife. Then she'd be my Uncle.
@rcs1000. You asked for evidence that he founded his business after getting banned by the bookies after winning once to often.
I spent time researching it and provided it. From the horses mouth.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
You have! I've been doing online voting in British elections since 2001. *
However it's a fairly convoluted form of online voting where the steps are that the returning officer in Oxford sends a ballot paper to my brother in Leeds, my brother sends me a scan of the ballot paper (originally email, last one was Signal because he's quite tech savvy), I reply with an instruction about what mark to make on the ballot paper, he makes the mark I request (I hope he does this although I have no proof) and sends the paper back to Oxford via the totally reliable medium of the British Post Office.
I definitely see the argument for not involving computers in things since there are various ways you could break this, for example if there was malware on my computer someone could intercept the vote before it gets to me and cast it themselves, or they could guess which way I would vote and stop me getting the vote, and maybe send me a fake one. But we still have this in the current system, we just have a bunch of other steps as well.
I think you could easily design a system way safer than the current one. The problem is that it's not necessarily the one the government would choose...
* with a gap in between for when Labour disfranchized me
I don't see why online voting should be a bigger security risk or more problematic than online banking to which everyone commits their life finances without a second thought.
Retail bank balances aren't real, ballots are. There's no regulator who can stop the election for 2 days to reset the system.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
20% will be pretty brutal. It only becomes ELE if that 20% is smeared pretty evenly across a stack of seats and they are bowled by concentrated tactical voting combined with RefUKers taking chunks out of them.
I don’t expect the Nigel to win any more than a handful of seats at most. But the kind of people who will vote for them won’t be put off by the “shock” revelations of recent days.
Ultimately it’s this: will “we’re finished but please don’t kill us” pleas work? Or will voters tactical vote the life out of them?
Succinctly put.
How's your own little battle going? I am full of admiration for you doing it.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
If there isn’t an absolutely seismic ELE but, you know, ‘just’ a Labour landslide and it’s all done on a sub 40% vote share, then I’m anticipating a lot of ill-informed anger against SKS on here between about 22.01 and 23.30 when the first results come in.
I suspect some people (cough) are in it mainly for the disruption and anarchy.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
You have! I've been doing online voting in British elections since 2001. *
However it's a fairly convoluted form of online voting where the steps are that the returning officer in Oxford sends a ballot paper to my brother in Leeds, my brother sends me a scan of the ballot paper (originally email, last one was Signal because he's quite tech savvy), I reply with an instruction about what mark to make on the ballot paper, he makes the mark I request (I hope he does this although I have no proof) and sends the paper back to Oxford via the totally reliable medium of the British Post Office.
I definitely see the argument for not involving computers in things since there are various ways you could break this, for example if there was malware on my computer someone could intercept the vote before it gets to me and cast it themselves, or they could guess which way I would vote and stop me getting the vote, and maybe send me a fake one. But we still have this in the current system, we just have a bunch of other steps as well.
I think you could easily design a system way safer than the current one. The problem is that it's not necessarily the one the government would choose...
* with a gap in between for when Labour disfranchized me
I don't see why online voting should be a bigger security risk or more problematic than online banking to which everyone commits their life finances without a second thought.
They should get Fujitsu in to design a system. What could possibly go wrong?
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy. As well they might. It is a foolish and ignorant one....
The only people who provoked Russia and Putin were the Ukrainian people who had the temerity to reject a Russian stooge as their leader and the likelihood of a future using outdoor toilets as loyal subjects of the Russkiy Mir whilst being robbed blind by the oligarchy. They looked west to the progress made in the former bloc and chose that for their future in a legitimate election. It began with the Maidan revolution - a pure demonstration of self determination. Hitchens, not unusually, is wrong.
You mean an illegal coup by peoole primarily in the west of the country against a government elected freely and fairly by people primarily in the east of the country.
You will presumably be content then, if Starmers government, which will have its powerbase in the north, becomes exceptionally unpopular, but a motion of no confidence to remove him fails, for radical conservatives in the south to go all "Citizen Smith", storm parliament, shoot up the TUC headquarters and force Starmer to flee the country, then dissolve parliament and hold new elections?
Point of order:
It was a rebellion against the President, not against the Government. Under the constitutional arrangements of the time the two were clearly separated.
A President who had just decided the constitution didn't apply to him...
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
You have! I've been doing online voting in British elections since 2001. *
However it's a fairly convoluted form of online voting where the steps are that the returning officer in Oxford sends a ballot paper to my brother in Leeds, my brother sends me a scan of the ballot paper (originally email, last one was Signal because he's quite tech savvy), I reply with an instruction about what mark to make on the ballot paper, he makes the mark I request (I hope he does this although I have no proof) and sends the paper back to Oxford via the totally reliable medium of the British Post Office.
I definitely see the argument for not involving computers in things since there are various ways you could break this, for example if there was malware on my computer someone could intercept the vote before it gets to me and cast it themselves, or they could guess which way I would vote and stop me getting the vote, and maybe send me a fake one. But we still have this in the current system, we just have a bunch of other steps as well.
I think you could easily design a system way safer than the current one. The problem is that it's not necessarily the one the government would choose...
* with a gap in between for when Labour disfranchized me
I don't see why online voting should be a bigger security risk or more problematic than online banking to which everyone commits their life finances without a second thought.
Edit it only needs to be more secure than postal and proxy voting that aren't secure at all.
Yes, but with online banking fraud we have the protection of being one of millions of potential victims, alongside all the security protections, so like Wildebeest on the Mara, the odds are in our favour despite the lions prowling about. With election fraud there is only one victim (or arguably 650), and all the lions will be after it.
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
Looks credible, but we just don't know.
In GE2019 the exit poll/result was in line with the polls, but in GE2017 and GE2015 it really wasn't.
I think that makes a very credible forecast, with some pullback from the smaller parties as the Tory and tabloid last-minute scares bite.
It would put all of the in-campaign ELE chat in the same category as the Tories gain Bootle chat that was prevalent as Mrs May bestrode the world during the early 2017 campaign. Which is fair enough - campaign excitement at imminent extreme results fades into a more pedestrian outcome (not that Labour getting 400 is at all pedestrian, historically) as polling day approaches.
It makes the odds on Tory seats over 100 and over 140 very attractive, and I am putting some money on, partly for some consultation when the eagerly anticipated and we’ll deserved ELE doesn’t quite materialise.
I'm still mulling over buying at 100+ seats.
My instinct tells me it's a buy, but I also don't want to lose my shirt in case a revolution is brewing.
[probably isn't]
I’ve just placed a bet on Cons 100-149 seats @ 3/1 with Betfair
I reckon that’s great value.
I may be completely wrong but I suspect some of the doomsday and ELE talk is wildly misplaced. And this will be the election when MRPs are generally derided.
Sure. Also quite funny, though, given you've derided me for over a year that an absolutely seismic asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs catastrophe is coming ("you need to get out on the streets" etc.) that you're now more bullish about the Tories than I am.
Heathener's ever-so-occasionally-mentioned Surrey friend is clearly now voting Tory again....
I have a tory friend in Surrey?
Actually I don’t think she is but I may find out today as I’m on my way there soon from Salisbury for the week. She’s very disillusioned with the party that she feels has left her behind not the other way around.
However, I think some of this ELE talk is wild. In some ways I hope I’m wrong, although I don’t want to see Reform surging either.
Cons 100-200 seats feels remarkably solid ground to me given the available odds.
No, I think that you are the Heatherdamus of this board, for predicting this sort of result 2 years out.
That Tories are feeling positive about a prediction of 155 seats is telling. It could be half that easily, but 155 is losing more than half of their 2019 seats despite redistributing and other voter suppression methods like voter ID.
That would be the worst Conservative performance since the war, and is now considered a stretch target.
Yes but that was against 2019 and I think 2017 is a more reasonable comparison.
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy. As well they might. It is a foolish and ignorant one....
The only people who provoked Russia and Putin were the Ukrainian people who had the temerity to reject a Russian stooge as their leader and the likelihood of a future using outdoor toilets as loyal subjects of the Russkiy Mir whilst being robbed blind by the oligarchy. They looked west to the progress made in the former bloc and chose that for their future in a legitimate election. It began with the Maidan revolution - a pure demonstration of self determination. Hitchens, not unusually, is wrong.
You mean an illegal coup by peoole primarily in the west of the country against a government elected freely and fairly by people primarily in the east of the country.
You will presumably be content then, if Starmers government, which will have its powerbase in the north, becomes exceptionally unpopular, but a motion of no confidence to remove him fails, for radical conservatives in the south to go all "Citizen Smith", storm parliament, shoot up the TUC headquarters and force Starmer to flee the country, then dissolve parliament and hold new elections?
If Starmer engages in a murderous crackdown on peaceful protests, then yes. Yanukovych is a traitor who sold policy out to the Russian state. The people protested and he had them shot, so they drove him out of power. Sometimes revolutions are right.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Look back at the threads from the week before. Aside from a bit of forlorn hope from some quarters the writing was on the wall. I was so unsurprised I didn’t even bother going home to watch the exit poll, just checked it on my phone before getting back to the Christmas party.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
I voted Tory yesterday because I like and respect my local MP. Pure constituency vote though.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
If there isn’t an absolutely seismic ELE but, you know, ‘just’ a Labour landslide and it’s all done on a sub 40% vote share, then I’m anticipating a lot of ill-informed anger against SKS on here between about 22.01 and 23.30 when the first results come in.
I suspect some people (cough) are in it mainly for the disruption and anarchy.
There are distinct levels of disaster
Tories over 150 - which is historically bad, as @foxy notes - will have everyone in the Tory party breathing a sigh of relief
If they get over 200 they’ll probably pop the Nyetimber
But under 150 and it gets grim. That’s “terrible”
Under 100 and it’s absolute catastrophe
Falling behind the Lib Dems and coming third and it’s an “unthinkable apocalypse”
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
I voted Tory yesterday because I like and respect my local MP. Pure constituency vote though.
There’s enough evidence on this forum to say that there will be hundreds of thousands more where you came from. That’s why I’m convinced Tories are way under-polled.
I also think Labour will do better than current polling.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Look back at the threads from the week before. Aside from a bit of forlorn hope from some quarters the writing was on the wall. I was so unsurprised I didn’t even bother going home to watch the exit poll, just checked it on my phone before getting back to the Christmas party.
Then you’re quite rare and astute. That absolutely wasn’t the reaction of most people
Remember the video of Boris and Carrie and dom all leaping up excitedly at the exit poll (feels like another world now, a happier time before the steam engine). Even they didn’t expect it. Remember the exit poll on tv - the shock and gloom of remoanery tv pundits
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy....
Dissent in Russia is treated by the dissenter accidentally falling out of the 12th floor.....but heh, Hitchens has to hitch.
I've lost track of my Hitchenses,
I just remember that there's a Roman Catholic one and an Atheist one, so when they have both gone one or the other will have a ghost who is surprised (assuming continuing consciousness).
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy. As well they might. It is a foolish and ignorant one....
The only people who provoked Russia and Putin were the Ukrainian people who had the temerity to reject a Russian stooge as their leader and the likelihood of a future using outdoor toilets as loyal subjects of the Russkiy Mir whilst being robbed blind by the oligarchy. They looked west to the progress made in the former bloc and chose that for their future in a legitimate election. It began with the Maidan revolution - a pure demonstration of self determination. Hitchens, not unusually, is wrong.
You mean an illegal coup by peoole primarily in the west of the country against a government elected freely and fairly by people primarily in the east of the country.
You will presumably be content then, if Starmers government, which will have its powerbase in the north, becomes exceptionally unpopular, but a motion of no confidence to remove him fails, for radical conservatives in the south to go all "Citizen Smith", storm parliament, shoot up the TUC headquarters and force Starmer to flee the country, then dissolve parliament and hold new elections?
Ukranians might have been divided in 2014, but they are united now. That is Putins legacy. To convert a country where there was a lot of Russophilia into an implacable enemy..
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
Looks credible, but we just don't know.
In GE2019 the exit poll/result was in line with the polls, but in GE2017 and GE2015 it really wasn't.
I think that makes a very credible forecast, with some pullback from the smaller parties as the Tory and tabloid last-minute scares bite.
It would put all of the in-campaign ELE chat in the same category as the Tories gain Bootle chat that was prevalent as Mrs May bestrode the world during the early 2017 campaign. Which is fair enough - campaign excitement at imminent extreme results fades into a more pedestrian outcome (not that Labour getting 400 is at all pedestrian, historically) as polling day approaches.
It makes the odds on Tory seats over 100 and over 140 very attractive, and I am putting some money on, partly for some consultation when the eagerly anticipated and we’ll deserved ELE doesn’t quite materialise.
I'm still mulling over buying at 100+ seats.
My instinct tells me it's a buy, but I also don't want to lose my shirt in case a revolution is brewing.
[probably isn't]
I’ve just placed a bet on Cons 100-149 seats @ 3/1 with Betfair
I reckon that’s great value.
I may be completely wrong but I suspect some of the doomsday and ELE talk is wildly misplaced. And this will be the election when MRPs are generally derided.
Sure. Also quite funny, though, given you've derided me for over a year that an absolutely seismic asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs catastrophe is coming ("you need to get out on the streets" etc.) that you're now more bullish about the Tories than I am.
Heathener's ever-so-occasionally-mentioned Surrey friend is clearly now voting Tory again....
I have a tory friend in Surrey?
Actually I don’t think she is but I may find out today as I’m on my way there soon from Salisbury for the week. She’s very disillusioned with the party that she feels has left her behind not the other way around.
However, I think some of this ELE talk is wild. In some ways I hope I’m wrong, although I don’t want to see Reform surging either.
Cons 100-200 seats feels remarkably solid ground to me given the available odds.
No, I think that you are the Heatherdamus of this board, for predicting this sort of result 2 years out.
That Tories are feeling positive about a prediction of 155 seats is telling. It could be half that easily, but 155 is losing more than half of their 2019 seats despite redistributing and other voter suppression methods like voter ID.
That would be the worst Conservative performance since the war, and is now considered a stretch target.
Not really. The Tories plumbing the depths in the polls and looking on their way out has been clear to all of us.
What's really cooked their goose, though, is the return of Farage and Reform. Without it, they'd be comfortably in the high 20s.
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
Voting for things that matter (GEs for example) should be an entirely analogue process. Reason:
Murphy's great principle: If it can go wrong it will. Digital and electronic processes introduce additional and unaccountable entities between the voter and the result declarer. Evidence: Ask the people imprisoned and bankrupted by the Post Office Scandal. Or several million people whose electronic banking suddenly didn't work.
In our present process every stage is provable from the chains of action in a human action based system. Only one (and this should be altered) element of it is easily open to subversion, namely the postal vote. Postal votes should be for special cases only and subject to the same scrutiny as the polling booth.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
You have! I've been doing online voting in British elections since 2001. *
However it's a fairly convoluted form of online voting where the steps are that the returning officer in Oxford sends a ballot paper to my brother in Leeds, my brother sends me a scan of the ballot paper (originally email, last one was Signal because he's quite tech savvy), I reply with an instruction about what mark to make on the ballot paper, he makes the mark I request (I hope he does this although I have no proof) and sends the paper back to Oxford via the totally reliable medium of the British Post Office.
I definitely see the argument for not involving computers in things since there are various ways you could break this, for example if there was malware on my computer someone could intercept the vote before it gets to me and cast it themselves, or they could guess which way I would vote and stop me getting the vote, and maybe send me a fake one. But we still have this in the current system, we just have a bunch of other steps as well.
I think you could easily design a system way safer than the current one. The problem is that it's not necessarily the one the government would choose...
* with a gap in between for when Labour disfranchized me
I don't see why online voting should be a bigger security risk or more problematic than online banking to which everyone commits their life finances without a second thought.
Ya but banking apps and online services are regularly hit. 4 went down just this week.
Do we really want that situation with online voting?
Elections need to be utterly above reproach when it comes to allegations of interference.
Absolutely anybody can participate in observing a pen and paper based election count, it requires no special skills, other than the ability to turn up and watch the count take place.
Validating the result of an online election would at the very least require a computer science degree, coding skills, and an understanding of how IT architecture works that is beyond the layman.
The advantage of the system we have now is that absolutely everyone including the thickest numpty can see how it works, and how it's audited. Introducing the complexity of a digital voting system makes the process less transparent and less accountable, which will lead to conspiracy theories that can't be easily disproven.
Remember when people were going nuts because polling stations were providing pencils instead of pens, and people were trying to spread the conspiracy theory that this was because it was easier to doctor the result? Imagine that kind of conspiracy theory on steroids if we switched to a digital system.
Btw the lack of “election fever” in France is astonishing. If you think Britain is quiet then try France. This is supposedly a nation changing event - I’ve seen one confirmed poster in a week of endless travel. And that was on the Ile de Sein. Possibly the most remote place in Metropolitan France. And it was ripped
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy. As well they might. It is a foolish and ignorant one....
The only people who provoked Russia and Putin were the Ukrainian people who had the temerity to reject a Russian stooge as their leader and the likelihood of a future using outdoor toilets as loyal subjects of the Russkiy Mir whilst being robbed blind by the oligarchy. They looked west to the progress made in the former bloc and chose that for their future in a legitimate election. It began with the Maidan revolution - a pure demonstration of self determination. Hitchens, not unusually, is wrong.
You mean an illegal coup by peoole primarily in the west of the country against a government elected freely and fairly by people primarily in the east of the country.
You will presumably be content then, if Starmers government, which will have its powerbase in the north, becomes exceptionally unpopular, but a motion of no confidence to remove him fails, for radical conservatives in the south to go all "Citizen Smith", storm parliament, shoot up the TUC headquarters and force Starmer to flee the country, then dissolve parliament and hold new elections?
Riiiight,
Yanukovych ordered his troops to open fire on peaceful protesters. He was forced to flee by the entire Ukrainian nation which was fed up with his criminal gang stealing everything in sight and then trying to hand over the country to his Russian masters. Russia then invaded and occupied the Donbas and Crimea and has continued the war against Ukraine ever since. In free and fair elections, which Putin does not even begin to understand, Volodymyr Zelensky was chosen as president. from Kryvyi Rih, by the war which is pretty Eastern, and his first language was Russian.
Your travesty of Ukranian recent history is offensive and dangerous, you reveal your contemptible bias with each pro Russian propaganda point that you spout.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Not me. But I put my money where my mouth was, and bought conservative seats on SpIn.
I have been doing similar this time around. I will top up,again today or tomorrow.
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Look back at the threads from the week before. Aside from a bit of forlorn hope from some quarters the writing was on the wall. I was so unsurprised I didn’t even bother going home to watch the exit poll, just checked it on my phone before getting back to the Christmas party.
Then you’re quite rare and astute. That absolutely wasn’t the reaction of most people
Remember the video of Boris and Carrie and dom all leaping up excitedly at the exit poll (feels like another world now, a happier time before the steam engine). Even they didn’t expect it. Remember the exit poll on tv - the shock and gloom of remoanery tv pundits
So if you didn’t feel that you’re unusual
I don’t think you’re right about this. I agree with Tim: 2019 was foregone.
Before my voting time but 1992 was a surprise for a lot of people.
2015 surprised quite a few but Dave made me money
2016 Brexit surprised many but not me because again I bet the right way.
2017 was pretty obvious once Theresa became a Maybot
Its time we returned to election declarations being delivered outside town halls to the gathered throng of local peasantry so they can carry the news home to their outlying villages
In those days, said peasants had all been told, bribed or threatened how to vote, and hardly needed to stay up late to find out!
(1) In those days most peasants didn't have the vote;
(2) By definition, if it had a town hall it was a Borough not a county constituency so there would be no outlying villages to carry the news to.
#pedanticbetting.com
Genuinely wondering: where did they do the counts etc. for county constituencies? Presumably in the county town, which usually had a town hall?
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Not me. But I put my money where my mouth was, and bought conservative seats on SpIn.
I have been doing similar this time around. I will top up,again today or tomorrow.
I remember feeling pleasant surprise. I wasn’t shocked - I expected a Tory victory - but the size of Bojo’s majority was bigger than I anticipated
So yes - definite surprise
I had Remoaner friends who were astonished. In a bad way
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Look back at the threads from the week before. Aside from a bit of forlorn hope from some quarters the writing was on the wall. I was so unsurprised I didn’t even bother going home to watch the exit poll, just checked it on my phone before getting back to the Christmas party.
Then you’re quite rare and astute. That absolutely wasn’t the reaction of most people
Remember the video of Boris and Carrie and dom all leaping up excitedly at the exit poll (feels like another world now, a happier time before the steam engine). Even they didn’t expect it. Remember the exit poll on tv - the shock and gloom of remoanery tv pundits
So if you didn’t feel that you’re unusual
History suggests you are wrong. Yes, the Tories slightly over-achieved against the final week predictions, but only marginally, and the overall picture was widely predicted, and expected:
Predictions one week before the vote:
Electoral Calculus as of 8 December 2019 = majority of 46 Conservative Election Maps UK as of 6 December 2019 = majority of 40 Conservative Elections Etc. as of 5 December 2019 = majority of 42 Conservative UK-Elect as of 8 December 2019 = majority of 58 Conservative Graphnile as of 11 December 2019 = majority of 56 Conservative Spreadex as of 5 December 2019 = majority of 32 Conservative
Conservatives 348 345 346 354 352 341 Labour Party 225 224 218 212 221 220 SNP 41 43 45 43 52 44.5 Liberal Democrats 13 14 19 17 N/A 21 Plaid Cymru 4 4 4 4 N/A 4 Green Party 1 1 1 1 N/A 1.5 Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 N/A 1.75 Others 19 19 19 19 25 N/A Overall result Conservative
Its time we returned to election declarations being delivered outside town halls to the gathered throng of local peasantry so they can carry the news home to their outlying villages
In those days, said peasants had all been told, bribed or threatened how to vote, and hardly needed to stay up late to find out!
(1) In those days most peasants didn't have the vote;
(2) By definition, if it had a town hall it was a Borough not a county constituency so there would be no outlying villages to carry the news to.
#pedanticbetting.com
Genuinely wondering: where did they do the counts etc. for county constituencies? Presumably in the county town, which usually had a town hall?
Wrong question, because the votes were not secret so were tallied at the polling stations, which would be outdoors. Usually those were in the county town but until 1885 'county town' was rather loosely defined and so it could be in any major population centre. E.g. in Cumberland the county town was Carlisle but elections took place in Cockermouth. In Middlesex the county town was London but elections for some reason took place in Brentford.
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Look back at the threads from the week before. Aside from a bit of forlorn hope from some quarters the writing was on the wall. I was so unsurprised I didn’t even bother going home to watch the exit poll, just checked it on my phone before getting back to the Christmas party.
Then you’re quite rare and astute. That absolutely wasn’t the reaction of most people
Remember the video of Boris and Carrie and dom all leaping up excitedly at the exit poll (feels like another world now, a happier time before the steam engine). Even they didn’t expect it. Remember the exit poll on tv - the shock and gloom of remoanery tv pundits
So if you didn’t feel that you’re unusual
No, it was all in line with the polls during the campaign.
You are a drama queen and always go for hype, but for most of us Johnsons victory was on the cards even if we deplored him.
I think it is @SouthamObserver who makes the point that "Get Brexit Done" was not so much an enthusiasm for that disastrous policy, but rather a cry from the heart for politicians on both sides to shut up about it and move onto other subjects.
Incidentally, whilst watching a YouTube this morning I got my first ever (UK) political ads. One was for Labour nationally.
The other was from a candidate encouraging me to vote Labour. Except the candidate was calling me to vote Labour in South Derbyshire, when I live in Cambridgeshire.
(Although tbf, I have family in South Derbyshire, so the targeting is not massively off.)
NEW: I’ve spent the week talking to Tories across the party. Here’s what I found. 🧵
- some doubting wipeout in safe Tory seats - “buyer’s remorse” strategy incoming - some want Sunak to “do a Howard” & stay for 6 months - anger at Dowden for pushing early poll then disappearing
A strange picture out there among candidates.
- in long term safe seats, there is some disbelief about Tories finishing below 100 seats - gallows humour has kicked in: “It’s always darkest before it’s completely pitch black.”
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
Looks credible, but we just don't know.
In GE2019 the exit poll/result was in line with the polls, but in GE2017 and GE2015 it really wasn't.
I think that makes a very credible forecast, with some pullback from the smaller parties as the Tory and tabloid last-minute scares bite.
It would put all of the in-campaign ELE chat in the same category as the Tories gain Bootle chat that was prevalent as Mrs May bestrode the world during the early 2017 campaign. Which is fair enough - campaign excitement at imminent extreme results fades into a more pedestrian outcome (not that Labour getting 400 is at all pedestrian, historically) as polling day approaches.
It makes the odds on Tory seats over 100 and over 140 very attractive, and I am putting some money on, partly for some consultation when the eagerly anticipated and we’ll deserved ELE doesn’t quite materialise.
I'm still mulling over buying at 100+ seats.
My instinct tells me it's a buy, but I also don't want to lose my shirt in case a revolution is brewing.
[probably isn't]
I’ve just placed a bet on Cons 100-149 seats @ 3/1 with Betfair
I reckon that’s great value.
I may be completely wrong but I suspect some of the doomsday and ELE talk is wildly misplaced. And this will be the election when MRPs are generally derided.
Sure. Also quite funny, though, given you've derided me for over a year that an absolutely seismic asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs catastrophe is coming ("you need to get out on the streets" etc.) that you're now more bullish about the Tories than I am.
Heathener's ever-so-occasionally-mentioned Surrey friend is clearly now voting Tory again....
I have a tory friend in Surrey?
Actually I don’t think she is but I may find out today as I’m on my way there soon from Salisbury for the week. She’s very disillusioned with the party that she feels has left her behind not the other way around.
However, I think some of this ELE talk is wild. In some ways I hope I’m wrong, although I don’t want to see Reform surging either.
Cons 100-200 seats feels remarkably solid ground to me given the available odds.
No, I think that you are the Heatherdamus of this board, for predicting this sort of result 2 years out.
That Tories are feeling positive about a prediction of 155 seats is telling. It could be half that easily, but 155 is losing more than half of their 2019 seats despite redistributing and other voter suppression methods like voter ID.
That would be the worst Conservative performance since the war, and is now considered a stretch target.
Not really. The Tories plumbing the depths in the polls and looking on their way out has been clear to all of us.
What's really cooked their goose, though, is the return of Farage and Reform. Without it, they'd be comfortably in the high 20s.
You overlook how many of those Reform voters are just as keen to see the back of the Tories as the rest of us.
Before the campaign, the Tories were hovering mid-20s - yes, Farage came along and gave Reform a boost, but the Tory rating has also sunk during the campaign due to all the gaffes, which would have happened with or without NF. Mid-20s is probably the upper end of what they'd have got.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Look back at the threads from the week before. Aside from a bit of forlorn hope from some quarters the writing was on the wall. I was so unsurprised I didn’t even bother going home to watch the exit poll, just checked it on my phone before getting back to the Christmas party.
Then you’re quite rare and astute. That absolutely wasn’t the reaction of most people
Remember the video of Boris and Carrie and dom all leaping up excitedly at the exit poll (feels like another world now, a happier time before the steam engine). Even they didn’t expect it. Remember the exit poll on tv - the shock and gloom of remoanery tv pundits
So if you didn’t feel that you’re unusual
I don’t think you’re right about this. I agree with Tim: 2019 was foregone.
Before my voting time but 1992 was a surprise for a lot of people.
2015 surprised quite a few but Dave made me money
2016 Brexit surprised many but not me because again I bet the right way.
2017 was pretty obvious once Theresa became a Maybot
2017 I befouled myself and changed blood group when the exit poll was announced. The pretty general expectation was May had reduced a possible 150 maj to a still comfortable 30 or so.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Not me. But I put my money where my mouth was, and bought conservative seats on SpIn.
I have been doing similar this time around. I will top up,again today or tomorrow.
I remember feeling pleasant surprise. I wasn’t shocked - I expected a Tory victory - but the size of Bojo’s majority was bigger than I anticipated
So yes - definite surprise
I had Remoaner friends who were astonished. In a bad way
All you and they had to do was look at the opinion polls.
There was nothing surprising about it and it was all extremely obvious if you followed the polling. They were spot on with the eventual result from weeks out:
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
If there isn’t an absolutely seismic ELE but, you know, ‘just’ a Labour landslide and it’s all done on a sub 40% vote share, then I’m anticipating a lot of ill-informed anger against SKS on here between about 22.01 and 23.30 when the first results come in.
I suspect some people (cough) are in it mainly for the disruption and anarchy.
There are distinct levels of disaster
Tories over 150 - which is historically bad, as @foxy notes - will have everyone in the Tory party breathing a sigh of relief
If they get over 200 they’ll probably pop the Nyetimber
But under 150 and it gets grim. That’s “terrible”
Under 100 and it’s absolute catastrophe
Falling behind the Lib Dems and coming third and it’s an “unthinkable apocalypse”
Not all that long ago SKS and Labour would have been delighted to have a result in which Lab + LD combined got 326 seats. Actually I think that Labour may well be closer to 500 than 400 on the day, but if Labour won even on a minority, the outcome would be OK. It gives them a chance. Succeeding over the next 5 years will be about the quality of Labour's governing + luck. It will have almost nothing to do with whether they get 330 seats or 530.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Look back at the threads from the week before. Aside from a bit of forlorn hope from some quarters the writing was on the wall. I was so unsurprised I didn’t even bother going home to watch the exit poll, just checked it on my phone before getting back to the Christmas party.
Then you’re quite rare and astute. That absolutely wasn’t the reaction of most people
Remember the video of Boris and Carrie and dom all leaping up excitedly at the exit poll (feels like another world now, a happier time before the steam engine). Even they didn’t expect it. Remember the exit poll on tv - the shock and gloom of remoanery tv pundits
So if you didn’t feel that you’re unusual
History suggests you are wrong. Yes, the Tories slightly over-achieved against the final week predictions, but only marginally, and the overall picture was widely predicted, and expected:
Predictions one week before the vote:
Electoral Calculus as of 8 December 2019 = majority of 46 Conservative Election Maps UK as of 6 December 2019 = majority of 40 Conservative Elections Etc. as of 5 December 2019 = majority of 42 Conservative UK-Elect as of 8 December 2019 = majority of 58 Conservative Graphnile as of 11 December 2019 = majority of 56 Conservative Spreadex as of 5 December 2019 = majority of 32 Conservative
Conservatives 348 345 346 354 352 341 Labour Party 225 224 218 212 221 220 SNP 41 43 45 43 52 44.5 Liberal Democrats 13 14 19 17 N/A 21 Plaid Cymru 4 4 4 4 N/A 4 Green Party 1 1 1 1 N/A 1.5 Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 N/A 1.75 Others 19 19 19 19 25 N/A Overall result Conservative
I’m NOT TALKING ABOUT THE POLLS
Remember pb-ers are total geeks and extremely unusual. No one follows politics like us, they have lives and actual friends and they do stuff. Normal people don’t chat about “the chances of Plaid in Powys”
Normal people have emotions not data inputs and a lot of people were emotionally invested in a result which reversed Brexit, so they hopecasted that, and then got a terrible shock when it didn’t happen
Recall the video of the tv news station when the exit poll dropped. The dire and silent astonishment, the whimpers in the background
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Not me. But I put my money where my mouth was, and bought conservative seats on SpIn.
I have been doing similar this time around. I will top up,again today or tomorrow.
I remember feeling pleasant surprise. I wasn’t shocked - I expected a Tory victory - but the size of Bojo’s majority was bigger than I anticipated
So yes - definite surprise
I had Remoaner friends who were astonished. In a bad way
The early Blyth Valley result I think was my most 'shocked' moment, it confirmed the red wall was partially coming down and a big majority was happening
My connected Laboury friend tells me David Lammy is not going to be FS, and that SKS is considering David Miliband or Jonathan Powell.
David Milliband would be an outstanding FS. Much better than the flaky David Lammy
It's not going to happen, even if there is a bit of a reshuffle. DM has been out of UK politics too long.
Pity then. Much the most articulate politician on foreign affairs I've heard for many years and one of the few who seems to have a clear vision on the intractable Gaza/Palestinian situation.I could get positively enthused about the labour victory if it came about.
I'm pissed off. So many shops have closed that the only ones within reach are Betfred and LadbrokesCoral (eliding the two to prevent disclosure). Either the constituency bets aren't available in the shops or the VERY NICE IF NOT FULLY INFORMED PEOPLE behind the desk just don't know and get confused when you ask...and confused people are very difficult to get service from.
So I'm a bit fucked. I appreciate few people on PB actually bet in shops instead of online, but does *anybody* know an actual physical shop that offers constituency bets?
Guys, I think you do/have bet in a physical shop. Do you know of a named physical shop that takes constituency bets? (eg shop X on Y street in town Z)
Never had a problem betting on a constitency market in a physical shop.
You have to write out the slip carefully, being very specific as to names, party and dates. Do not assume the staff will know there is a general election on. When you hand the slip in they will look puzzled and go to one of their computer screens to look it up and check the price. This will take time and you will probably have to help them ('How to you spell Islington?') but in due course you will get there and when they see on the screen the same details that you have written on your slip they will be happy, take your money and stamp your slip.
If the bet is large (say over £50) they will certainly phone head office for clearance. Again, this will take time while Head Office finds the appropriate expert (i.e. someone who knows who the PM is) but again if you show enough patience you should get on ok.
Expect similar delays when you go to collect your winnings, but it does work, believe me.
One of the best bits of in person betting is getting banned for winning too much. I was actually putting bets on for some experts (themselves banned), a long time ago, but the way the manager delivered the news still sticks with me.
One of my best friends - and co-founders of Betgenius/Genius Sports - was a professional gambler for a while. He was first banned from online. Then from all the bookmakers near him.
He then took to getting on his bike every morning and riding 5 or 10 miles (he lived in Camden) to bookmakers in other parts of London to put bets on.
One day, he cycled for an hour to Colindale, to an independent bookmaker he had never bet with before, and saw his picture pinned up behind the counter. That was when he knew his professional gambling days were behind him.
I got banned or told I wouldn't get more than a tenner on in most of my local shops many years ago. The exception was the Ladbrokes where I had managed to cultivate a bit of a relationship with the staff, giving them tips when I had a big win etc. They were also quite keen to chat about how pissed off they were with Ladbrokes.
Looking further afield, I found out:
-the areas with the highest concentration of bookies were the poorer areas of big cities. -of the chains Betfred were the ones least likely to take your bet at the advertised odds, and most likely to try and cheat you. -carrying 10 figure sums in 20 pound notes is quite bulky, but banks would sometimes have a few 50 pound notes if you asked them. -Mcdonalds had reliable free WiFi (back when that was a thing you needed) and surprisingly good coffee. -picking up big winnings in dodgy areas can occasionally feel a bit nervy. I once saw a pair attempt to hold up a Corals in North London with what turned out to be a fake gun. -bookies were one of the few remaining spaces where the customers were often exclusively male
I was once refused a bet in a shop I'd never been in before and was told "you're part of that syndicate"
In other news - and much to my surprise - the Sunday Times has backed Labour.
Not to my surprise. The Eds and Directors of the paper move in hallowed circles in London and want to be able to say to to the new administration that they backed them, against the views of their op-ed writers and, largely, their readership.
They have their careers to think about.
Have you got numbers for how Sunday Times readers are likely to vote? Can't find any myself, but Labour were ahead with Telegraph readers in April,
and I'd be surprised if the Sunday Times was more loyal Conservative than that. Agree about the op-ed team, though that speaks more to having discarded centre-left voices from the Times stable over the last few years. Which looked shrewd in 2019 but is perhaps less clever now
But boy, the endorsement is lukewarm. It boils down to "the Conservatives simply can't have another term, not after the last five years, and whatever our doubts about Starmer, he is the only alternative".
Which, to be fair, is probably where the median voter is.
Certainly more lukewarm than their endorsement of BJ and the Cons in 2019. Great for Starmlab to be part of their stable of ‘winners’ though.
There's no need for Milibanana unless we are doing rendition flights again that need covering up. He was a very average FS and a dreadfully wet politician
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Look back at the threads from the week before. Aside from a bit of forlorn hope from some quarters the writing was on the wall. I was so unsurprised I didn’t even bother going home to watch the exit poll, just checked it on my phone before getting back to the Christmas party.
Then you’re quite rare and astute. That absolutely wasn’t the reaction of most people
Remember the video of Boris and Carrie and dom all leaping up excitedly at the exit poll (feels like another world now, a happier time before the steam engine). Even they didn’t expect it. Remember the exit poll on tv - the shock and gloom of remoanery tv pundits
So if you didn’t feel that you’re unusual
I don’t think you’re right about this. I agree with Tim: 2019 was foregone.
Before my voting time but 1992 was a surprise for a lot of people.
2015 surprised quite a few but Dave made me money
2016 Brexit surprised many but not me because again I bet the right way.
2017 was pretty obvious once Theresa became a Maybot
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Look back at the threads from the week before. Aside from a bit of forlorn hope from some quarters the writing was on the wall. I was so unsurprised I didn’t even bother going home to watch the exit poll, just checked it on my phone before getting back to the Christmas party.
Then you’re quite rare and astute. That absolutely wasn’t the reaction of most people
Remember the video of Boris and Carrie and dom all leaping up excitedly at the exit poll (feels like another world now, a happier time before the steam engine). Even they didn’t expect it. Remember the exit poll on tv - the shock and gloom of remoanery tv pundits
So if you didn’t feel that you’re unusual
No, it was all in line with the polls during the campaign.
You are a drama queen and always go for hype, but for most of us Johnsons victory was on the cards even if we deplored him.
I think it is @SouthamObserver who makes the point that "Get Brexit Done" was not so much an enthusiasm for that disastrous policy, but rather a cry from the heart for politicians on both sides to shut up about it and move onto other subjects.
No I’m sorry this is totally wrong and you’re an idiot.
I’ve actually gone and found the video of the exit poll. Channel 4 News. Watch the run up - has Boris Johnson pulled it off, has he got a majority? - then watch the reaction. Horrified surprise
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Look back at the threads from the week before. Aside from a bit of forlorn hope from some quarters the writing was on the wall. I was so unsurprised I didn’t even bother going home to watch the exit poll, just checked it on my phone before getting back to the Christmas party.
Then you’re quite rare and astute. That absolutely wasn’t the reaction of most people
Remember the video of Boris and Carrie and dom all leaping up excitedly at the exit poll (feels like another world now, a happier time before the steam engine). Even they didn’t expect it. Remember the exit poll on tv - the shock and gloom of remoanery tv pundits
So if you didn’t feel that you’re unusual
No, it was all in line with the polls during the campaign.
You are a drama queen and always go for hype, but for most of us Johnsons victory was on the cards even if we deplored him.
I think it is @SouthamObserver who makes the point that "Get Brexit Done" was not so much an enthusiasm for that disastrous policy, but rather a cry from the heart for politicians on both sides to shut up about it and move onto other subjects.
As I've said before, Johnson 'Got Brexit Done' and thought his work was complete, whereas people really meant "Get Brexit Done With".
If Reform UK get more than 1 MP elected, how long do you think it will be before there are splits and defections in the Parliamentary group? Farage has minimal interest in growing a party rather than a personal cult, and that will come back to bite him because Reform UK MPs are going to want to be taken seriously.
Is there a video, or other videos? And is he often on his Brompton?
I've missed an activism trick there, I could have taken him around our cycle tracks where he would have to get off it 10 times in 2 miles to do the conga-limbo through the barriers. Then I could have made him go down the 5ft wide shared pavements blocked by parked cars, and the roads full of pinch random points that he would be forced onto to go anywhere.
I've got other things away, but missed this one. Grr.
The desperation of the Tory press this morning is embarrassing, and rather unedifying. The Mail and the Express lead with Rishi's warning that: Starmer will wreck Britain in 100 days (despite not having a plan?).
Even more bizarrely, but entertainingly, according to the Mail: Starmer hopes July will be unseasonably wet to reduce the number of Channel crossings. The haven't even got the intelligence to realise that Starmer thinks strong northerly winds would have more impact than a bit of rain.
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Look back at the threads from the week before. Aside from a bit of forlorn hope from some quarters the writing was on the wall. I was so unsurprised I didn’t even bother going home to watch the exit poll, just checked it on my phone before getting back to the Christmas party.
Genuine question: how do you look back to the threads the week before the 2019 GE? Looking at the list of 'recent discussions' (I know), I can't go beyond 100 pages of threads which gets back to December 2020.
I think I was pretty resigned to a clear Johnson victory but memory is an unreliable witness - thought it might be fun to check.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
If there isn’t an absolutely seismic ELE but, you know, ‘just’ a Labour landslide and it’s all done on a sub 40% vote share, then I’m anticipating a lot of ill-informed anger against SKS on here between about 22.01 and 23.30 when the first results come in.
I suspect some people (cough) are in it mainly for the disruption and anarchy.
There are distinct levels of disaster
Tories over 150 - which is historically bad, as @foxy notes - will have everyone in the Tory party breathing a sigh of relief
If they get over 200 they’ll probably pop the Nyetimber
But under 150 and it gets grim. That’s “terrible”
Under 100 and it’s absolute catastrophe
Falling behind the Lib Dems and coming third and it’s an “unthinkable apocalypse”
I think that the Tories would be relieved with anything over 150, content over 100, disappointed by going into double figures and dismayed if the 3rd party in Parliament.
An ELE does not literally mean no seats at all, but I think could reasonably be defined as 3rd party status with the PM not winning his constituency.
(@Sandpit can rest assured, even after the Sunkatastrophe Rutland & Stamford will still be blue)
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
I voted Tory yesterday because I like and respect my local MP. Pure constituency vote though.
This.
I think this will be more widespread than people realise, or the polls suggest. It's a very logical position for a committed Conservative (gives a 'liked and respected' base for the Tories to rebuild from, so I hope plenty of Tories do it).
I've bet accordingly, including on rcs's tip last night about the value for 150-199 Con seats (still available for 8 at smarkets). Worth noting, though, that my betting record is dire, so perhaps do the opposite.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Look back at the threads from the week before. Aside from a bit of forlorn hope from some quarters the writing was on the wall. I was so unsurprised I didn’t even bother going home to watch the exit poll, just checked it on my phone before getting back to the Christmas party.
Then you’re quite rare and astute. That absolutely wasn’t the reaction of most people
Remember the video of Boris and Carrie and dom all leaping up excitedly at the exit poll (feels like another world now, a happier time before the steam engine). Even they didn’t expect it. Remember the exit poll on tv - the shock and gloom of remoanery tv pundits
So if you didn’t feel that you’re unusual
I don’t think you’re right about this. I agree with Tim: 2019 was foregone.
Before my voting time but 1992 was a surprise for a lot of people.
2015 surprised quite a few but Dave made me money
2016 Brexit surprised many but not me because again I bet the right way.
2017 was pretty obvious once Theresa became a Maybot
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
I voted Tory yesterday because I like and respect my local MP. Pure constituency vote though.
This.
I think this will be more widespread than people realise, or the polls suggest. It's a very logical position for a committed Conservative (gives a 'liked and respected' base for the Tories to rebuild from, so I hope plenty of Tories do it).
I've bet accordingly, including on rcs's tip last night about the value for 150-199 Con seats (still available for 8 at smarkets). Worth noting, though, that my betting record is dire, so perhaps do the opposite.
I think this is very plausible. I'd love to see the Tories wiped out but it's not going to happen.
My connected Laboury friend tells me David Lammy is not going to be FS, and that SKS is considering David Miliband or Jonathan Powell.
David Milliband would be an outstanding FS. Much better than the flaky David Lammy
It's not going to happen, even if there is a bit of a reshuffle. DM has been out of UK politics too long.
Pity then. Much the most articulate politician on foreign affairs I've heard for many years and one of the few who seems to have a clear vision on the intractable Gaza/Palestinian situation.I could get positively enthused about the labour victory if it came about.
If David Miliband wished to be FS under Starmer, he should have found himself a seat and got elected as a Labour MP. He hasn't done that, so he won't be FS.
The desperation of the Tory press this morning is embarrassing, and rather unedifying. The Mail and the Express lead with Rishi's warning that: Starmer will wreck Britain in 100 days (despite not having a plan?).
Making up blatant lies hasn't been a very effective strategy for Sunak so far, but he's never been a man to stop digging when in a hole.
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy....
Dissent in Russia is treated by the dissenter accidentally falling out of the 12th floor.....but heh, Hitchens has to hitch.
I've lost track of my Hitchenses,
I just remember that there's a Roman Catholic one and an Atheist one, so when they have both gone one or the other will have a ghost who is surprised (assuming continuing consciousness).
Solemn Book of Common Prayer Anglican. He would be most upset to be called a Roman Catholic (wouldn't put him past appearing on here to reprove you in person).
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
Its time we returned to election declarations being delivered outside town halls to the gathered throng of local peasantry so they can carry the news home to their outlying villages
In those days, said peasants had all been told, bribed or threatened how to vote, and hardly needed to stay up late to find out!
(1) In those days most peasants didn't have the vote;
(2) By definition, if it had a town hall it was a Borough not a county constituency so there would be no outlying villages to carry the news to.
#pedanticbetting.com
Genuinely wondering: where did they do the counts etc. for county constituencies? Presumably in the county town, which usually had a town hall?
Wrong question, because the votes were not secret so were tallied at the polling stations, which would be outdoors. Usually those were in the county town but until 1885 'county town' was rather loosely defined and so it could be in any major population centre. E.g. in Cumberland the county town was Carlisle but elections took place in Cockermouth. In Middlesex the county town was London but elections for some reason took place in Brentford.
Thanks, that's good to know. (I did mean the open kind of count. Been reading one or two old election inquiry reports - fascinating stuff.)
For those who haven't yet had enough of forecasts, the latest UK-Elect forecast has now been released at https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240630ForecastUK.html. (UK-Elect has been one of the most accurate pre-election forecasts at several past elections.)
It shows Labour 424 seats, Conservative 126, Liberal Democrat 53, SNP 17, Plaid Cymru 4, Reform UK 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 200.
That forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240630ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy. As well they might. It is a foolish and ignorant one....
The only people who provoked Russia and Putin were the Ukrainian people who had the temerity to reject a Russian stooge as their leader and the likelihood of a future using outdoor toilets as loyal subjects of the Russkiy Mir whilst being robbed blind by the oligarchy. They looked west to the progress made in the former bloc and chose that for their future in a legitimate election. It began with the Maidan revolution - a pure demonstration of self determination. Hitchens, not unusually, is wrong.
You mean an illegal coup by peoole primarily in the west of the country against a government elected freely and fairly by people primarily in the east of the country.
You will presumably be content then, if Starmers government, which will have its powerbase in the north, becomes exceptionally unpopular, but a motion of no confidence to remove him fails, for radical conservatives in the south to go all "Citizen Smith", storm parliament, shoot up the TUC headquarters and force Starmer to flee the country, then dissolve parliament and hold new elections?
Riiiight,
Yanukovych ordered his troops to open fire on peaceful protesters. He was forced to flee by the entire Ukrainian nation which was fed up with his criminal gang stealing everything in sight and then trying to hand over the country to his Russian masters. Russia then invaded and occupied the Donbas and Crimea and has continued the war against Ukraine ever since. In free and fair elections, which Putin does not even begin to understand, Volodymyr Zelensky was chosen as president. from Kryvyi Rih, by the war which is pretty Eastern, and his first language was Russian.
Your travesty of Ukranian recent history is offensive and dangerous, you reveal your contemptible bias with each pro Russian propaganda point that you spout.
Pусский военный корабль, иди на хуй
(For anyone wondering, consider if the Monmouth Class Cruiser Bedford had been sold to the Russians in 1921 when retired, and brought out of reserve for the Ukraine War.
They have at least one active warship which is older than that - the submarine rescue ship Kommuna laid down in 1912.)
I’m tootling back to Surrey and will leave @Leon to dig deeper into the 2019 hole. Admitting we’re wrong is hard, I should know.
By the way, when I first predicted a Labour landslide on here, I didn’t predict the Conservatives would be made extinct and I still don’t really think that will be the case.
Most commentators would call a 160-seat majority a landslide, which is roughly where I still reckon it will finish.
See you all later, probably during England’s next snoozefest. Something Leon, I, and much of the country agree on.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
They can’t reissue them, but they can give you a pink ballot to complete, which will be put in the ballot box but set aside at the count.
Actually not sure you are correct Ian about that?
@DeclanF I had the same issue when my postal vote didn’t appear so I contacted the council who said that they can reissue the ballot papers. But, and it’s quite a big but, the replacement postal pack would have had to be collected in person from the council office showing ID. The original would have been cancelled by the council and therefore unusable.
Fortunately mine did appear but, yes, I would have gone to that trouble just to vote had I needed to.
Thanks all for the advice.
We are all in full time jobs and the council offices are a long way away. We cannot take half a day off work at a moment's notice to collect replacement ballots.
So we will lose our votes because of the incompetence of the council and/or Royal Mail.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
There are Corbynistas *now* who are convinced there’s going to be a hung Parliament, with lots of independents like Corbyn and Andrew Feinstein elected.
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
Religious reasons/tradition. It would have been deeply shocking to do so for many people; still is to some extent.
There is the practical issue that quite a few church and kirk halls are already block booked on Sunday mornings for the purposes of their owners.
Friday and Saturday are also Sabbaths for other people.
Edit: whether those are sufficient reasons is another matter, especially in the era of posta - er, I see the problem ...
In other news HUGE election going on in France today.
My prediction the far right will NOT get a majority
I'm I correct in thinking that only those getting 50% of the vote in their districts are elected today, with the remainder going into a 2 way run off next Sunday?
Hence most seats will get some tactical squeeze this week.
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
Or Saturday. Or both.
I wonder how the UK seat totals would be affected if we had the French system of run-offs?
I suspect the Tories would do a lot better than they seem likely to under our FPTP system this time.
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy....
I don't understand this argument.
Ukraine is as sovereign a nation as Russia. It is allowed to join NATO. It is allowed to join the EU.
If your neighbour wants nothing to do with you and would rather be with someone else... well, maybe you should look at your own behaviour rather than blaming someone else.
I’m tootling back to Surrey and will leave @Leon to dig deeper into the 2019 hole. Admitting we’re wrong is hard, I should know.
By the way, when I first predicted a Labour landslide on here, I didn’t predict the Conservatives would be made extinct and I still don’t really think that will be the case.
Most commentators would call a 160-seat majority a landslide, which is roughly where I still reckon it will finish.
See you all later, probably during England’s next snoozefest. Something Leon, I, and much of the country agree on.
I’ve just linked to the video of the exit poll. Where everyone at channel 4 is horribly surprised by it. But PB will be PB. “It came from the wet market!!! That’s the consensus!! Nordstream was done by Russian agents that hate pipelines! Biden just has a stammer and he actually likes the feel of adult diapers that’s all it is!!”
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
If there isn’t an absolutely seismic ELE but, you know, ‘just’ a Labour landslide and it’s all done on a sub 40% vote share, then I’m anticipating a lot of ill-informed anger against SKS on here between about 22.01 and 23.30 when the first results come in.
I suspect some people (cough) are in it mainly for the disruption and anarchy.
There are distinct levels of disaster
Tories over 150 - which is historically bad, as @foxy notes - will have everyone in the Tory party breathing a sigh of relief
If they get over 200 they’ll probably pop the Nyetimber
But under 150 and it gets grim. That’s “terrible”
Under 100 and it’s absolute catastrophe
Falling behind the Lib Dems and coming third and it’s an “unthinkable apocalypse”
I think that the Tories would be relieved with anything over 150, content over 100, disappointed by going into double figures and dismayed if the 3rd party in Parliament.
An ELE does not literally mean no seats at all, but I think could reasonably be defined as 3rd party status with the PM not winning his constituency.
(@Sandpit can rest assured, even after the Sunkatastrophe Rutland & Stamford will still be blue)
Looking ahead, we are seeing a phenomenon to an unusual degree: There is an unprecedently large number of predictions, including drilling down seat by seat, being made by professionals with a stake in being right.
Secondly these show an amazing degree of variance, unless they all coalesce in the next three days.
Eg: Tories: Savanta 53; MiC 155
So they are not all going to be right; and whatever happens some are dramatically wrong.
Thirdly, I think there is a high chance that the legendary exit poll will have a lot more caveats than usual.
The volume of data appears to be making prediction harder not easier.
One we know the result the scramble will be on to explain why it was obvious all along. But I have no idea what that result will be.
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
A Sunday election would cost a whole lot more, given that until the evening all the election staff (and school caretakers, etc.) are on contracted hours.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Look back at the threads from the week before. Aside from a bit of forlorn hope from some quarters the writing was on the wall. I was so unsurprised I didn’t even bother going home to watch the exit poll, just checked it on my phone before getting back to the Christmas party.
Genuine question: how do you look back to the threads the week before the 2019 GE? Looking at the list of 'recent discussions' (I know), I can't go beyond 100 pages of threads which gets back to December 2020.
I think I was pretty resigned to a clear Johnson victory but memory is an unreliable witness - thought it might be fun to check.
There used to be a little sidebar menu on the Main site you could click to bring up a list of threads by month and year. But that was some years ago.
This post will be unpopular... But I think we should introduce Electronic voting. But.. But.. But... What about Russian hackers? If Camelot can create very secure online lottery system, why can same infrastructure not be used for voting? Otherwise Russians and Chinese would win all the big lottery jackpots!!!
Send everyone a printed voting slip including voter details (for verification) - just tick the relevant box - and feed it into voting machine which immediately validates details, rejects spoilt ballots etc, and updates count automatically. All accepted ballots are collected into boxes for later checking.
Rejected ballots, missing ballots etc can be updated manually by election officers.
All physical boxes to be kept for manual checking (statistical sample or full manual recount if challenged).
All results to be announced on provisional basis within one hour of voting ended. If all parties agree then provisional result can be accepted as final, but parties can request manual recounts or partial challenges but on limited justifiable basis only.
This should definitely be introduced for STV type elections.
Puts on tin helmet and waits for response....
What do we get for the obviously increased risk? Fast results? Who does that benefit?
No need to keep local authority and banking staff up all night at large overtime cost.... Or half a week if STV used..
If "overtime" is the key issue (and it's not), just start the count on Friday morning. The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
As an aside, voting on Sunday is far more civilised, and is associated with higher turnout. Not sure why Britain is sticking Thursday.
Religious reasons/tradition. It would have been deeply shocking to do so for many people; still is to some extent.
There is the practical issue that quite a few church and kirk halls are already block booked on Sunday mornings for the purposes of their owners.
Friday and Saturday are also Sabbaths for other people.
On the other hand schools are free on Sundays.
I agree about the Sabbath though, so would suggest 2 days.
I think India has six weeks of polling, but not all the time in the same place.
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy. As well they might. It is a foolish and ignorant one....
The only people who provoked Russia and Putin were the Ukrainian people who had the temerity to reject a Russian stooge as their leader and the likelihood of a future using outdoor toilets as loyal subjects of the Russkiy Mir whilst being robbed blind by the oligarchy. They looked west to the progress made in the former bloc and chose that for their future in a legitimate election. It began with the Maidan revolution - a pure demonstration of self determination. Hitchens, not unusually, is wrong.
You mean an illegal coup by peoole primarily in the west of the country against a government elected freely and fairly by people primarily in the east of the country.
You will presumably be content then, if Starmers government, which will have its powerbase in the north, becomes exceptionally unpopular, but a motion of no confidence to remove him fails, for radical conservatives in the south to go all "Citizen Smith", storm parliament, shoot up the TUC headquarters and force Starmer to flee the country, then dissolve parliament and hold new elections?
Riiiight,
Yanukovych ordered his troops to open fire on peaceful protesters. He was forced to flee by the entire Ukrainian nation which was fed up with his criminal gang stealing everything in sight and then trying to hand over the country to his Russian masters. Russia then invaded and occupied the Donbas and Crimea and has continued the war against Ukraine ever since. In free and fair elections, which Putin does not even begin to understand, Volodymyr Zelensky was chosen as president. from Kryvyi Rih, by the war which is pretty Eastern, and his first language was Russian.
Your travesty of Ukranian recent history is offensive and dangerous, you reveal your contemptible bias with each pro Russian propaganda point that you spout.
Pусский военный корабль, иди на хуй
(For anyone wondering, consider if the Monmouth Class Cruiser Bedford had been sold to the Russians in 1921 when retired, and brought out of reserve for the Ukraine War.
They have at least one active warship which is older than that - the submarine rescue ship Kommuna laid down in 1912.)
The Kommuna is a unique specialist ship though, so hard to replace; and AIUI few major Russian warships in the west survived WW2.
Every single registered voter on my mail route has received their postal vote or ballot card on the day that they've been given to me to deliver
Royal Mail might be part of the late delivery problem, but I'm not
Our household will be disenfranchised unless we can persuade our council to reissue our postal votes before the election and get them to us before the election - something they've managed to fail to do in the 10 days since they sent them out - or allow us to vote in person.
To say that we are pissed off is an understatement. A example of the fucking ineptitude of this country.
That doesn't sound good. I'd replace postal voting (on demand, anyway) with early voting in person as we do with the recall petitions.
It’s 2024! Why on earth haven’t we introduced online voting?
You have! I've been doing online voting in British elections since 2001. *
However it's a fairly convoluted form of online voting where the steps are that the returning officer in Oxford sends a ballot paper to my brother in Leeds, my brother sends me a scan of the ballot paper (originally email, last one was Signal because he's quite tech savvy), I reply with an instruction about what mark to make on the ballot paper, he makes the mark I request (I hope he does this although I have no proof) and sends the paper back to Oxford via the totally reliable medium of the British Post Office.
I definitely see the argument for not involving computers in things since there are various ways you could break this, for example if there was malware on my computer someone could intercept the vote before it gets to me and cast it themselves, or they could guess which way I would vote and stop me getting the vote, and maybe send me a fake one. But we still have this in the current system, we just have a bunch of other steps as well.
I think you could easily design a system way safer than the current one. The problem is that it's not necessarily the one the government would choose...
* with a gap in between for when Labour disfranchized me
I don't see why online voting should be a bigger security risk or more problematic than online banking to which everyone commits their life finances without a second thought.
Edit it only needs to be more secure than postal and proxy voting that aren't secure at all.
TBF voting has quite weird requirements compared to online banking. You have the contradictory goals of transparency and ballot secrecy at the same time. Also you have to maintain liveness: If the bank suspects fraud they can just lock down your account for the time being and work it out later, but if you tried to do this with voting it would be hard to maintain the credible neutrality of the people running the system, and the adversary would use your security measures to lock out their opponents.
But yeah, at least as a replacement for proxy voting over the Royal Mail you'd have to screw up the design quite badly to make it worse. British government IT procurement does seem to be getting less awful, I think it's probably worth trying to replace at least the shonkiest parts of the current system.
Comments
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
You will presumably be content then, if Starmers government, which will have its powerbase in the north, becomes exceptionally unpopular, but a motion of no confidence to remove him fails, for radical conservatives in the south to go all "Citizen Smith", storm parliament, shoot up the TUC headquarters and force Starmer to flee the country, then dissolve parliament and hold new elections?
Do we really want that situation with online voting?
I don’t expect the Nigel to win any more than a handful of seats at most. But the kind of people who will vote for them won’t be put off by the “shock” revelations of recent days.
Ultimately it’s this: will “we’re finished but please don’t kill us” pleas work? Or will voters tactical vote the life out of them?
That Tories are feeling positive about a prediction of 155 seats is telling. It could be half that easily, but 155 is losing more than half of their 2019 seats despite redistributing and other voter suppression methods like voter ID.
That would be the worst Conservative performance since the war, and is now considered a stretch target.
I'm more pessimistic of Con chances than you but you can get the following:
225 -249 band (implies 116-140 seats) at 9
200-224 band (implies 141-165 seats) at 16
I spent time researching it and provided it. From the horses mouth.
Your response seems a little ungracious.
How's your own little battle going? I am full of admiration for you doing it.
I suspect some people (cough) are in it mainly for the disruption and anarchy.
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
It was a rebellion against the President, not against the Government. Under the constitutional arrangements of the time the two were clearly separated.
A President who had just decided the constitution didn't apply to him...
(Moreover, it was in Kyiv, not the West as such.)
Yanukovych is a traitor who sold policy out to the Russian state. The people protested and he had them shot, so they drove him out of power. Sometimes revolutions are right.
Tories over 150 - which is historically bad, as @foxy notes - will have everyone in the Tory party breathing a sigh of relief
If they get over 200 they’ll probably pop the Nyetimber
But under 150 and it gets grim. That’s “terrible”
Under 100 and it’s absolute catastrophe
Falling behind the Lib Dems and coming third and it’s an “unthinkable apocalypse”
Under 50 and they’re extinct
0 seats means @Sandpit has to sell his wife
I understand Douglas Alexander, assuming he wins his seat, is the likely next Foreign Secretary
I also think Labour will do better than current polling.
Remember the video of Boris and Carrie and dom all leaping up excitedly at the exit poll (feels like another world now, a happier time before the steam engine). Even they didn’t expect it. Remember the exit poll on tv - the shock and gloom of remoanery tv pundits
So if you didn’t feel that you’re unusual
I just remember that there's a Roman Catholic one and an Atheist one, so when they have both gone one or the other will have a ghost who is surprised (assuming continuing consciousness).
What's really cooked their goose, though, is the return of Farage and Reform. Without it, they'd be comfortably in the high 20s.
Murphy's great principle: If it can go wrong it will. Digital and electronic processes introduce additional and unaccountable entities between the voter and the result declarer. Evidence: Ask the people imprisoned and bankrupted by the Post Office Scandal. Or several million people whose electronic banking suddenly didn't work.
In our present process every stage is provable from the chains of action in a human action based system. Only one (and this should be altered) element of it is easily open to subversion, namely the postal vote. Postal votes should be for special cases only and subject to the same scrutiny as the polling booth.
Following the Lord Cameron of Caravan precedent, presumably.
Absolutely anybody can participate in observing a pen and paper based election count, it requires no special skills, other than the ability to turn up and watch the count take place.
Validating the result of an online election would at the very least require a computer science degree, coding skills, and an understanding of how IT architecture works that is beyond the layman.
The advantage of the system we have now is that absolutely everyone including the thickest numpty can see how it works, and how it's audited. Introducing the complexity of a digital voting system makes the process less transparent and less accountable, which will lead to conspiracy theories that can't be easily disproven.
Remember when people were going nuts because polling stations were providing pencils instead of pens, and people were trying to spread the conspiracy theory that this was because it was easier to doctor the result? Imagine that kind of conspiracy theory on steroids if we switched to a digital system.
Yanukovych ordered his troops to open fire on peaceful protesters. He was forced to flee by the entire Ukrainian nation which was fed up with his criminal gang stealing everything in sight and then trying to hand over the country to his Russian masters. Russia then invaded and occupied the Donbas and Crimea and has continued the war against Ukraine ever since. In free and fair elections, which Putin does not even begin to understand, Volodymyr Zelensky was chosen as president. from Kryvyi Rih, by the war which is pretty Eastern, and his first language was Russian.
Your travesty of Ukranian recent history is offensive and dangerous, you reveal your contemptible bias with each pro Russian propaganda point that you spout.
Pусский военный корабль, иди на хуй
I have been doing similar this time around. I will top up,again today or tomorrow.
Or half a week if STV used..
Before my voting time but 1992 was a surprise for a lot of people.
2015 surprised quite a few but Dave made me money
2016 Brexit surprised many but not me because again I bet the right way.
2017 was pretty obvious once Theresa became a Maybot
2019 was almost a shoo-in from the beginning. People had seen through Corbyn and Boris was riding a wave. Look at the consistent Cons leads all the way through the run-up:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
So yes - definite surprise
I had Remoaner friends who were astonished. In a bad way
Predictions one week before the vote:
Electoral Calculus as of 8 December 2019 = majority of 46 Conservative
Election Maps UK as of 6 December 2019 = majority of 40 Conservative
Elections Etc. as of 5 December 2019 = majority of 42 Conservative
UK-Elect as of 8 December 2019 = majority of 58 Conservative
Graphnile as of 11 December 2019 = majority of 56 Conservative
Spreadex as of 5 December 2019 = majority of 32 Conservative
Conservatives 348 345 346 354 352 341
Labour Party 225 224 218 212 221 220
SNP 41 43 45 43 52 44.5
Liberal Democrats 13 14 19 17 N/A 21
Plaid Cymru 4 4 4 4 N/A 4
Green Party 1 1 1 1 N/A 1.5
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 N/A 1.75
Others 19 19 19 19 25 N/A
Overall result Conservative
The marginal cost of running an election in the safest way is worth it. If ever you're going to spend money doing something right it should be this.
You are a drama queen and always go for hype, but for most of us Johnsons victory was on the cards even if we deplored him.
I think it is @SouthamObserver who makes the point that "Get Brexit Done" was not so much an enthusiasm for that disastrous policy, but rather a cry from the heart for politicians on both sides to shut up about it and move onto other subjects.
The other was from a candidate encouraging me to vote Labour. Except the candidate was calling me to vote Labour in South Derbyshire, when I live in Cambridgeshire.
(Although tbf, I have family in South Derbyshire, so the targeting is not massively off.)
NEW: I’ve spent the week talking to Tories across the party. Here’s what I found. 🧵
- some doubting wipeout in safe Tory seats
- “buyer’s remorse” strategy incoming
- some want Sunak to “do a Howard” & stay for 6 months
- anger at Dowden for pushing early poll then disappearing
A strange picture out there among candidates.
- in long term safe seats, there is some disbelief about Tories finishing below 100 seats
- gallows humour has kicked in: “It’s always darkest before it’s completely pitch black.”
https://x.com/michaelsavage/status/1807323231142945034
Before the campaign, the Tories were hovering mid-20s - yes, Farage came along and gave Reform a boost, but the Tory rating has also sunk during the campaign due to all the gaffes, which would have happened with or without NF. Mid-20s is probably the upper end of what they'd have got.
There was nothing surprising about it and it was all extremely obvious if you followed the polling. They were spot on with the eventual result from weeks out:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
I wonder if these ‘Astonished remoaner friends' have leapt out of the pages of one of your novels?
Remember pb-ers are total geeks and extremely unusual. No one follows politics like us, they have lives and actual friends and they do stuff. Normal people don’t chat about “the chances of Plaid in Powys”
Normal people have emotions not data inputs and a lot of people were emotionally invested in a result which reversed Brexit, so they hopecasted that, and then got a terrible shock when it didn’t happen
Recall the video of the tv news station when the exit poll dropped. The dire and silent astonishment, the whimpers in the background
lol
Looking further afield, I found out:
-the areas with the highest concentration of bookies were the poorer areas of big cities.
-of the chains Betfred were the ones least likely to take your bet at the advertised odds, and most likely to try and cheat you.
-carrying 10 figure sums in 20 pound notes is quite bulky, but banks would sometimes have a few 50 pound notes if you asked them.
-Mcdonalds had reliable free WiFi (back when that was a thing you needed) and surprisingly good coffee.
-picking up big winnings in dodgy areas can occasionally feel a bit nervy. I once saw a pair attempt to hold up a Corals in North London with what turned out to be a fake gun.
-bookies were one of the few remaining spaces where the customers were often exclusively male
I was once refused a bet in a shop I'd never been in before and was told "you're part of that syndicate"
He was a very average FS and a dreadfully wet politician
What made it worse was the exit poll getting it wrong, and the results just making things worse as the night went on.
I’ve actually gone and found the video of the exit poll. Channel 4 News. Watch the run up - has Boris Johnson pulled it off, has he got a majority? - then watch the reaction. Horrified surprise
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/cmTrFzUnCNCbSmWH/?mibextid=UalRPS
This is the week that many Conservative Ministers will face a stark choice:
Strictly’ or the Jungle.
Oliver Dowden says Conservative values are "lower taxes and controlled migration".
That's gaslighting.
Has anyone taken note of the BBC's "Your voice, your vote" project? I've not engaged with much of the dead-tree media coverage this time.
A good piece out this morning about Swindon feeling "not levelled up" (join the club!), with a photo of Faisal Islam touring it on a Brompton.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cldyw4q5qllo
Is there a video, or other videos? And is he often on his Brompton?
I've missed an activism trick there, I could have taken him around our cycle tracks where he would have to get off it 10 times in 2 miles to do the conga-limbo through the barriers. Then I could have made him go down the 5ft wide shared pavements blocked by parked cars, and the roads full of pinch random points that he would be forced onto to go anywhere.
I've got other things away, but missed this one. Grr.
Even more bizarrely, but entertainingly, according to the Mail: Starmer hopes July will be unseasonably wet to reduce the number of Channel crossings. The haven't even got the intelligence to realise that Starmer thinks strong northerly winds would have more impact than a bit of rain.
Exc — dates for Labour’s first 100 days
7-9 Jul: MPs sworn in
17 Jul: Kings speech
~30 Jul: housing targets
31 Jul: Parliament rises
2 Sept: MPs return
How Starmer govt will kick off with short recess and “build build build”
https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1807285007129428126
I think I was pretty resigned to a clear Johnson victory but memory is an unreliable witness - thought it might be fun to check.
An ELE does not literally mean no seats at all, but I think could reasonably be defined as 3rd party status with the PM not winning his constituency.
(@Sandpit can rest assured, even after the Sunkatastrophe Rutland & Stamford will still be blue)
I think this will be more widespread than people realise, or the polls suggest. It's a very logical position for a committed Conservative (gives a 'liked and respected' base for the Tories to rebuild from, so I hope plenty of Tories do it).
I've bet accordingly, including on rcs's tip last night about the value for 150-199 Con seats (still available for 8 at smarkets). Worth noting, though, that my betting record is dire, so perhaps do the opposite.
My prediction the far right will NOT get a majority
It shows Labour 424 seats, Conservative 126, Liberal Democrat 53, SNP 17, Plaid Cymru 4, Reform UK 4, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 200.
That forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240630ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
They have at least one active warship which is older than that - the submarine rescue ship Kommuna laid down in 1912.)
By the way, when I first predicted a Labour landslide on here, I didn’t predict the Conservatives would be made extinct and I still don’t really think that will be the case.
Most commentators would call a 160-seat majority a landslide, which is roughly where I still reckon it will finish.
See you all later, probably during England’s next snoozefest. Something Leon, I, and much of the country agree on.
We are all in full time jobs and the council offices are a long way away. We cannot take half a day off work at a moment's notice to collect replacement ballots.
So we will lose our votes because of the incompetence of the council and/or Royal Mail.
What a crap country this is.
There is the practical issue that quite a few church and kirk halls are already block booked on Sunday mornings for the purposes of their owners.
Friday and Saturday are also Sabbaths for other people.
Edit: whether those are sufficient reasons is another matter, especially in the era of posta - er, I see the problem ...
Hence most seats will get some tactical squeeze this week.
I suspect the Tories would do a lot better than they seem likely to under our FPTP system this time.
Secondly these show an amazing degree of variance, unless they all coalesce in the next three days.
Eg: Tories: Savanta 53; MiC 155
So they are not all going to be right; and whatever happens some are dramatically wrong.
Thirdly, I think there is a high chance that the legendary exit poll will have a lot more caveats than usual.
The volume of data appears to be making prediction harder not easier.
One we know the result the scramble will be on to explain why it was obvious all along. But I have no idea what that result will be.
I agree about the Sabbath though, so would suggest 2 days.
I think India has six weeks of polling, but not all the time in the same place.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1957/august/soviet-navy-world-war-ii
But yeah, at least as a replacement for proxy voting over the Royal Mail you'd have to screw up the design quite badly to make it worse. British government IT procurement does seem to be getting less awful, I think it's probably worth trying to replace at least the shonkiest parts of the current system.
But any Labour majority at all will be a historic achievement whatever the expectations.