In other news HUGE election going on in France today.
My prediction the far right will NOT get a majority
I'm I correct in thinking that only those getting 50% of the vote in their districts are elected today, with the remainder going into a 2 way run off next Sunday?
Hence most seats will get some tactical squeeze this week.
Yes, but they can be >2 way run offs.
Very rarely... The third place has to obtain 12.5 percent of electorate in the seat.
Yes, rarely, maybe 1% of the time. Last time, we had 3-way runoffs in Dordogne 3rd, Lot 2nd, Nièvre 2nd, Essonne 8th, and Hauts-de-Seine 2nd and 3rd.
Maybe I am just not seeing it but I remain fairly confident the Tories will come second, albeit even further behind than they were in 2005. I think the Lib Dems will disappoint but will end up the third largest party ahead of the SNP who will be around 20. I expect Reform to get next to no seats, on a level with the Greens.
And I expect Labour to have a massive majority making losing power in 2029 difficult if not impossible in these more volatile times.
You're right about everything apart from the last clause. The election result counts for nothing in the next one. Previously unimaginable turnarounds have been shown to be possible. If X number of people can change their vote between 2019 and 2024, then X number of people can change back between 2024 and 2029.
Let’s hope Keller is wrong. Imagine staying up til 6am and “the Tories do OK, considering”
Ugh
The exit polls will allow you an early night. They are rarely much out.
Though they could be this year, look at the variability in the MRPs.
Every election surprises us in surprising ways. Except 2019 which didn’t really surprise anyone, so much so that it was quite a surprise not to have any surprises.
Maybe 2024 will be the year the exit poll is surprisingly inaccurate.
It surprised the Corbynistas. Novara genuinely expected a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party.
The look on their faces at the moment of the exit poll is very, very funny.
wtf is @TimS talking about? 2019 came as a total and horrible surprise to millions of people - mainly Remoaners - who were *certain* everyone agreed with them and we’d get a government that delivered a second vote
Indeed I remember being surprised at the size of bozza’s majority and I’m a leaver. Everyone was surprised. @TimS is misremembering
Not me. But I put my money where my mouth was, and bought conservative seats on SpIn.
I have been doing similar this time around. I will top up,again today or tomorrow.
I remember feeling pleasant surprise. I wasn’t shocked - I expected a Tory victory - but the size of Bojo’s majority was bigger than I anticipated
So yes - definite surprise
I had Remoaner friends who were astonished. In a bad way
All you and they had to do was look at the opinion polls.
There was nothing surprising about it and it was all extremely obvious if you followed the polling. They were spot on with the eventual result from weeks out:
I wonder if these ‘Astonished remoaner friends' have leapt out of the pages of one of your novels?
This isn't directed at you, but I get a bit eye-rolly at these sort of claims.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. All sorts of people can be wise after the event, but at the time you simply don't know.
I take a somewhat dim view of those who claim to be absolutely certain they knew all along - I think they're fooling themselves, and taking the rest of us for the same.
• Labour: 37 per cent of the Britain-wide vote, 400 seats • Conservative: 24 per cent, 155 seats • Liberal Democrats: 13 per cent, 50 seats • Reform UK: 13 per cent, 2 seats • Green: 7 per cent, 2 seats • SNP: 33 per cent in Scotland, 18 seats • Other (including Northern Ireland): 23 seats • Labour majority: 150
Looks credible, but we just don't know.
In GE2019 the exit poll/result was in line with the polls, but in GE2017 and GE2015 it really wasn't.
I think that makes a very credible forecast, with some pullback from the smaller parties as the Tory and tabloid last-minute scares bite.
It would put all of the in-campaign ELE chat in the same category as the Tories gain Bootle chat that was prevalent as Mrs May bestrode the world during the early 2017 campaign. Which is fair enough - campaign excitement at imminent extreme results fades into a more pedestrian outcome (not that Labour getting 400 is at all pedestrian, historically) as polling day approaches.
It makes the odds on Tory seats over 100 and over 140 very attractive, and I am putting some money on, partly for some consultation when the eagerly anticipated and we’ll deserved ELE doesn’t quite materialise.
I'm still mulling over buying at 100+ seats.
My instinct tells me it's a buy, but I also don't want to lose my shirt in case a revolution is brewing.
[probably isn't]
I’ve just placed a bet on Cons 100-149 seats @ 3/1 with Betfair
I reckon that’s great value.
I may be completely wrong but I suspect some of the doomsday and ELE talk is wildly misplaced. And this will be the election when MRPs are generally derided.
I am on Cons 150-200 at 7-1, and think that is amazing value.
It really is. Hat tip Robert. Great value. I’ve just joined you there. 7-1 is still available folks at Ladbrokes folks.
So I’m now green between 100- 200 Cons seats.
Watching that, Cons now 150-200 now out to 8-1 with several bookies.
And normal service has been resumed. Sunak getting irritated and tetchy. The “why won’t you listen to me because I’m right and know more than you and everybody else” tone has returned.
From a betting point of view, speculating on the number of seats held by the Tories is fascinating.
From a political point of view, I couldn't really care less. It looks highly likely that Labour will get at least 400 seats, maybe 380 at worst, so I don't really care how many of the remainder the Tories get. Although, I'd rather Tories 180 / Reform 0 than Tories 150 / Reform 30.
Honest question: how will you feel if Tories go into double figures and maybe even come third? Pleased that they are dying? Worried for an old foe?
Good question. Personally, it would be enormous delight tinged with a small amount of 'be careful what you wish for' nervousness.
I will have the same, with an added sadness that this had to happen. This is the party that gave us Thatcher. I used to be quite loyal - I was never a member but it was my standard vote and I’ve been prepared to overlook a lot of venality and ineptitude, I’ve been especially loyal in general elections when it really matters
But I just can’t do it any more. The taxes and the migration stats and the failure to deal with wokeness and the totality of shite-the-bed incompetence over fourteen long wearying years
It feels like a relationship that has died. That horrible feeling when you know you have to break up and you know it will be a wrench and then you’ve got to divide the possessions and ugh ugh ugh
But it has to be done. We have to dump the Tories and endure the pain of loneliness (= a Labour government). They have to die so that something better may grow
Interesting analogy. But the thing is in the political general pool there really isn't plenty of fish in the sea.
You dump the Tories for all of the reasons you state, but then after you shacked up with Reform you discover a creepy family and some disgusting personal habits.
With Labour or the Liberal Democrats you find red heads or blondes just don't turn you on. The Greens are too into crystals or astrology. So it's time to be single for a while.
Yet your invisible girlfriend Didn't Vote hardly gives you the feels either.
Yet if the Tories don't try to make it work in the next Parliament then it's not just going to be a trial separation. Indeed unless the Tories get the right therapist, the divorce will be messy and permanent.
Some PBers predicting a hung parliament plus this:
For what it's worth, I hear canvassing returns today have given Labour an internal projected vote share of 36.2%. Their number crunchers are saying its now 50/50 between a a hung parliament and a small Tory majority.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
If there isn’t an absolutely seismic ELE but, you know, ‘just’ a Labour landslide and it’s all done on a sub 40% vote share, then I’m anticipating a lot of ill-informed anger against SKS on here between about 22.01 and 23.30 when the first results come in.
I suspect some people (cough) are in it mainly for the disruption and anarchy.
There are distinct levels of disaster
Tories over 150 - which is historically bad, as @foxy notes - will have everyone in the Tory party breathing a sigh of relief
If they get over 200 they’ll probably pop the Nyetimber
But under 150 and it gets grim. That’s “terrible”
Under 100 and it’s absolute catastrophe
Falling behind the Lib Dems and coming third and it’s an “unthinkable apocalypse”
I think that the Tories would be relieved with anything over 150, content over 100, disappointed by going into double figures and dismayed if the 3rd party in Parliament.
An ELE does not literally mean no seats at all, but I think could reasonably be defined as 3rd party status with the PM not winning his constituency.
(@Sandpit can rest assured, even after the Sunkatastrophe Rutland & Stamford will still be blue)
Looking ahead, we are seeing a phenomenon to an unusual degree: There is an unprecedently large number of predictions, including drilling down seat by seat, being made by professionals with a stake in being right.
Secondly these show an amazing degree of variance, unless they all coalesce in the next three days.
Eg: Tories: Savanta 53; MiC 155
So they are not all going to be right; and whatever happens some are dramatically wrong.
Thirdly, I think there is a high chance that the legendary exit poll will have a lot more caveats than usual.
The volume of data appears to be making prediction harder not easier.
One we know the result the scramble will be on to explain why it was obvious all along. But I have no idea what that result will be.
True, and it could be wrong by 20-30 seats in either direction, but we also have a genius (John Curtice) on the case who knows this better than we ever will and will be picking his polling stations carefully, for that very reason.
I am no friend or ally of Nigel Farage, and I hope very few people vote for his Reform Party, because it isn’t very nice and because Reform votes will aid Labour. But I must stand up for Mr Farage over the issue of the Ukraine war. The distinguished American Russia hawk Robert Kagan, who knows his onions in this region, agrees with Mr Farage that Russia was provoked....
Anyone who questions it is accused of being a Kremlin agent. Well, this is how dissent is treated in Russia, an example we should not follow. I think the near-hysterical allegations of ‘Putin shill’ and ‘Kremlin parrot’ levelled against dissenters are a sign that our governing class lack confidence in their Russia policy....
Dissent in Russia is treated by the dissenter accidentally falling out of the 12th floor.....but heh, Hitchens has to hitch.
I've lost track of my Hitchenses,
I just remember that there's a Roman Catholic one and an Atheist one, so when they have both gone one or the other will have a ghost who is surprised (assuming continuing consciousness).
Solemn Book of Common Prayer Anglican. He would be most upset to be called a Roman Catholic (wouldn't put him past appearing on here to reprove you in person).
IIRC he has done so before to (I think) correct an untruth. He should stay longer. Can we have Mr Meeks back as well.
Let me pre-emptively apologise to the BOCP Mr Hitchens, to avoid any need for an appearance.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
I voted Tory yesterday because I like and respect my local MP. Pure constituency vote though.
This.
I think this will be more widespread than people realise, or the polls suggest. It's a very logical position for a committed Conservative (gives a 'liked and respected' base for the Tories to rebuild from, so I hope plenty of Tories do it).
I've bet accordingly, including on rcs's tip last night about the value for 150-199 Con seats (still available for 8 at smarkets). Worth noting, though, that my betting record is dire, so perhaps do the opposite.
But how many likeable and respect worthy Con candidates are there?
John Redwood offers some clarity on the 'one nation' takeover of the Government (I use inverted commas because Disraeli would have been repulsed by these chumps), and how this election will be the public's verdict on 'one nationism'.
There were discussions with Ministers who decided it was best to run a largely One Nation policy. Ministers argued that the threat to the Conservative party came from Labour and Lib Dems to the left so it was important to move in their direction. They wanted to improve relations with the EU, follow international law as interpreted by internationalists, follow Bank and OBR orthodoxy and regulate more against possible harms. Critics of these views accepted they had lost the internal argument and supported the leadership going into an election.
Anecdotally I don’t know anyone that is voting Tory. My friends and family are a very mixed group of right and left and probably half are Tories - or can be persuaded that way sometimes
Usually a few of them will admit this. Now none. I suppose one or two might be hiding it - must be - but that does concur with the polls. 20% could be what they get. Which is virtual wipeout?
🤞🙏
I know quite a few who will vote Tory, particularly Indian doctors, but also old school Tories like my uncle in Lake.
There are a lot of low information voters at a GE who don't see the polls etc.
Fair enough. I do wonder how many Tories will crawl back to them at the end. eg my sister (really quite Tory) has gone awfully quiet. Usually she’s happy to tell us her vote (Tory). For the last year she’s been denouncing them
Now she’s all quiet. Hmmm. I suspect she’s reluctantly returning to the fold. If there are 2-3 million like her the Tories will be fine. Defeated but fine
I voted Tory yesterday because I like and respect my local MP. Pure constituency vote though.
I always quite liked Phillip Dunne. Best of a bad lot in Shropshire. Doesn’t mean I’d ever vote for him though as he supported things I disagreed with.
Some PBers predicting a hung parliament plus this:
For what it's worth, I hear canvassing returns today have given Labour an internal projected vote share of 36.2%. Their number crunchers are saying its now 50/50 between a a hung parliament and a small Tory majority.
Comments
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. All sorts of people can be wise after the event, but at the time you simply don't know.
I take a somewhat dim view of those who claim to be absolutely certain they knew all along - I think they're fooling themselves, and taking the rest of us for the same.
I'm on both the bets mentioned above, however.
You dump the Tories for all of the reasons you state, but then after you shacked up with Reform you discover a creepy family and some disgusting personal habits.
With Labour or the Liberal Democrats you find red heads or blondes just don't turn you on. The Greens are too into crystals or astrology. So it's time to be single for a while.
Yet your invisible girlfriend Didn't Vote hardly gives you the feels either.
Yet if the Tories don't try to make it work in the next Parliament then it's not just going to be a trial separation. Indeed unless the Tories get the right therapist, the divorce will be messy and permanent.
In mitigation, I did say I'd lost track !
Ours seems to have vanished.
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2024/06/28/one-nation-conservatism/