A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
I'd like to know why you dislike them?
'Benefit so grandly'? How do you work that out. This time they might, just might just about get close to a proportion of the vote. Otherwise they have always been miles off.
I've long had a theory their proportion of the vote is (typically) greatly inflated by being the repository of "other" votes. Though not so much post-Coalition.
I've got a theory that in 2015 when the Lib Dems collapsed a big percentage of the rise of UKIP came directly from Lib Dems as the party of "other" switched.
Can't prove it, but its what I suspect.
If we had PR, then the voting will change, so applying PR to a FPTP result and saying "this is what it should be" doesn't work.
Behind the scenes: If Biden stays in, it's for the same reason he decided to run again: He and the oligarchy believe he has a much better chance of beating former President Trump than Vice President Harris does.
Biden allies have played out the scenarios and see little chance of anyone besides Harris winning the nomination if he stepped aside.
And look how the terminally stupid have fallen for Farage's bullshit.
I feel fairly sure we don't know the whole story of the racist actor thing. Nothing about it rings true or makes entire sense. Could a fresh set of insights about this be a big story this week?
5 more sleeps and somewhere between 4 and 7 days till the election.
FIVE DAYS TO SAVE THE TORY PARTY!!!
No need - Tory is a nickname, it can be repurposed to the new Conservative Reform Party.
Conservative Reform Alliance Party will have a ready made nickname
Forced to hire a taxi this morning to get to Cambridge on time for an appointment. All the fault of the local train company. I bloody hate trains.
Journey through South Cambs bypasses some of the villages, but where we did pass houses nearly all the election paraphernalia consisted of Lib Dem diamonds, and there was one Green. Hardly a surprise - they're almost bound to win the seat - but just thought I'd mention.
Anyway, someone may have posted this already, but never mind:
In the final stretch of the campaign before the big day on July 4, there is huge scepticism among both Labour and Tory activists about the polls that show Rishi Sunak’s party being almost completely wiped out.
It is not just expectation management. Those on the doorstep report genuinely that there are too many undecided voters, “hard don’t knows” – even at this late stage – for the more dramatic MRPs to be trusted.
On the Labour side, people are naturally worried that the foregone conclusion could affect voter motivation to go to the polls. “It’s a conspiracy to lower turnout,” one Labour candidate seeking re-election said, only half joking.
There is concern, too, that the recent focus on stories revealing how candidates have placed bets on political events will only encourage cynicism. Have the Gambling Commission and police investigations effectively given already apathetic voters permission to switch off entirely?
“Tories are slightly worried about causing more issues so they’re going to be quiet going into the final week,” a Conservative insider said. “It will be very hyper-localised. Let what local candidates do best and knock on as many doors as possible.”
Conservatives are now talking about securing over 100 MPs as “we’ll take that” territory – apparently it is under 100 that is unacceptable, and third place behind the Lib Dems in seats where they will “hit every emergency button you can possibly find”. Current expectations are that they will return 100 to 150 MPs.
The Mayoral and PCC elections gave 41% Labour, 32% Conservative. I think such a result was achievable for the Conservatives, had they not run a campaign which insults the voters.
I remain British by birth, but English by the grace of God, as the saying goes.
UK by birth, or at least passport, surely ...
Doesn't the passport say British citizen?
NI.
Edit: it does say 'British citizen' but this is absurd as the main texts say United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. And no way is NI part of Britain.
Actually Britain has long been synonymous with UK. You are thinking of Great Britain (putting Olympics to one side).
Britain is bigger than Great Britain?
I am three parts England one part Isle of Skye. I say English because I wouldn't, ahem, want to be accused of falsely claiming the honour of having Welsh or NI blood and anyway foreigners are only interested in the language and the PL which are both genuinely English not British. UK filling in forms as it saves 5 letters.
Yes. Mind you, it is not so long ago that England was used for the whole place. You can see Britain, England and UK used more or less interchangeably in old films or abroad even now.
Little Englander originally meant little UKer.
Surely the vast majority of Little Englanders were in favour of Home Rule? Bright was very unusual in opposing it.
Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
Trump leads 2% on average, now. I loathe him, but there’s a tendency here to cherry pick any poll that favours Biden. That is unforgivable on a betting site.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
Hmm. I don't think it's unfair to judge the Lib Dems in 2010-2015 by their actions then, rather than the policies they'd previously campaigned on.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
Trump leads 2% on average, now. I loathe him, but there’s a tendency here to cherry pick any poll that favours Biden. That is unforgivable on a betting site.
Serious punters on here are sadly in a minority these days.
I remain British by birth, but English by the grace of God, as the saying goes.
UK by birth, or at least passport, surely ...
Doesn't the passport say British citizen?
NI.
Edit: it does say 'British citizen' but this is absurd as the main texts say United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. And no way is NI part of Britain.
Actually Britain has long been synonymous with UK. You are thinking of Great Britain (putting Olympics to one side).
Britain is bigger than Great Britain?
I am three parts England one part Isle of Skye. I say English because I wouldn't, ahem, want to be accused of falsely claiming the honour of having Welsh or NI blood and anyway foreigners are only interested in the language and the PL which are both genuinely English not British. UK filling in forms as it saves 5 letters.
Yes. Mind you, it is not so long ago that England was used for the whole place. You can see Britain, England and UK used more or less interchangeably in old films or abroad even now.
Little Englander originally meant little UKer.
Surely the vast majority of Little Englanders were in favour of Home Rule? Bright was very unusual in opposing it.
It was all about religion. Many nonconformists saw Irish Home Rule as selling out their brethren across the Irish Sea. But, there were imperialists like Cecil Rhodes who saw Home Rule as a blueprint for the Empire.
David Cameron: Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening UK’s defences
The foreign secretary says the Labour leader is ‘naive’ about the state of the world and is committed to excessive spending
Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton has labelled Sir Keir Starmer “hopelessly naive” about the dangerous state of the world and warned that Labour will undermine Britain’s security unless it provides a firm commitment to raise defence spending.
The foreign secretary said: “Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening Britain’s position and weakening Britain’s defences. All in a way that’s completely unnecessary.”
Cameron said Britain is under attack from an “axis of malign states” including Russia, China and Iran that are “threatening us domestically”, and that his return to government, seven years after he left No 10, has convinced him “the world is getting more dangerous”.
Rounding on the presumptive PM, Cameron said: “Labour is hopelessly naive about the dangerous world in which we’re living.
“If the next world war is fought between international lawyers, we’ll win hands down. But that’s not going to be the case, so you’ve got to make sure you strengthen your defences. You strengthen your intelligence and security. The last thing we need in Britain now is another liberal leftie lawyer running the country.”
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
The Mayoral and PCC elections gave 41% Labour, 32% Conservative. I think such a result was achievable for the Conservatives, had they not run a campaign which insults the voters.
It's unforgivable, and also not unique.
I think the Conservatives ran very poor campaigns in 2010 and 2017, but this one has been atrocious.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
I'd like to know why you dislike them?
'Benefit so grandly'? How do you work that out. This time they might, just might just about get close to a proportion of the vote. Otherwise they have always been miles off.
I've long had a theory their proportion of the vote is (typically) greatly inflated by being the repository of "other" votes. Though not so much post-Coalition.
I've got a theory that in 2015 when the Lib Dems collapsed a big percentage of the rise of UKIP came directly from Lib Dems as the party of "other" switched.
Can't prove it, but its what I suspect.
If we had PR, then the voting will change, so applying PR to a FPTP result and saying "this is what it should be" doesn't work.
Yep I agree, which you might be surprised by. See my other post. Personally I think the core of true liberals is around 5%. You know the stuff you and I agree on.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
If they do, they'll fade away again and miss their opportunity.
The country doesn't have the space for two large parties of the left.
Spoke this morning to a couple people close to President Biden. Hard to overstate how much he dismisses the political class and media in private. Believes many of them haven’t understood him for decades, don’t get his appeal. Cares what elected Ds with real power and voters say.
Worrying although there has been no direct threat. The Jewish groups fear they might be swept up in action against firms that "support" (in some way or other) Israel.
They're illustrating the story with footage of a Cambridge University student first aired about two months ago. What's happened to the Telegraph? They seem to be manufacturing stories
Trump leads 2% on average, now. I loathe him, but there’s a tendency here to cherry pick any poll that favours Biden. That is unforgivable on a betting site.
Nonsense. The example to follow is clearly Mike's. Whilst almost always he quite honourably declares all of his interests betting-wise, there are clearly examples that might slip through.
James Carville — the "Ragin' Cajun" - quoting Stein.
The trouble with Biden continuing is what do they do about the second debate? If Biden ducks it he will rightly and fairly be labelled a bottler. If he goes through with it he could easily have another stinker and sink his reelection chances. Trump on the other hand and against expectation must now be releshing the chance of debating Biden again, and this time I'd expect him to come armed with zigners about Biden's fitness.
It's a total mess, Biden shouldn't have been in the running at all, and the Democrats could have found a decent candidate, now it looks like they've given Trump a real chance of winning again.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
I hope not. I hope they will oppose where opposing is appropriate whether that be from the left or right. I suspect it will be against authoritarism which will appear to be from the right.
David Cameron: Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening UK’s defences
The foreign secretary says the Labour leader is ‘naive’ about the state of the world and is committed to excessive spending
Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton has labelled Sir Keir Starmer “hopelessly naive” about the dangerous state of the world and warned that Labour will undermine Britain’s security unless it provides a firm commitment to raise defence spending.
The foreign secretary said: “Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening Britain’s position and weakening Britain’s defences. All in a way that’s completely unnecessary.”
Cameron said Britain is under attack from an “axis of malign states” including Russia, China and Iran that are “threatening us domestically”, and that his return to government, seven years after he left No 10, has convinced him “the world is getting more dangerous”.
Rounding on the presumptive PM, Cameron said: “Labour is hopelessly naive about the dangerous world in which we’re living.
“If the next world war is fought between international lawyers, we’ll win hands down. But that’s not going to be the case, so you’ve got to make sure you strengthen your defences. You strengthen your intelligence and security. The last thing we need in Britain now is another liberal leftie lawyer running the country.”
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
I hope not. I hope they will oppose where opposing is appropriate whether that be from the left or right. I suspect it will be against authoritirism which will appear to be from the right.
The Lib Dems support the banning of smoking and the legalisation of cannabis. That sums them up.
Electronic voting is a totally mad idea, and those most against it are those of us who work in technological fields and who actually understand the process.
The term 'Electronic Voting' covers a multitude of possibilities; from voting via browser from the comfort of your own home (*) to EV in person at a polling station. The Indian system is at the saner end of EV; machine in polling station, where voter has to appear in person, and there *is* a paper audit trail, of which a small percentage is checked afterwards. The process - in theory - is fairly solid, especially as, AIUI, the machines themselves are mostly hardware.
Compare and contrast with the US system, which varies from state-to-state, and where many seem to use closed software and machines and processes of dubious reliability and openness.
Only modest changes compared with YouGov's previous poll 3 days ago, suggesting they have things nailed down pretty well, although the Greens remain at a surprisingly high figure of 7% compared with 8% last time. Not much comfort here for the Tories as it's difficult to see where they're likely to win support from with Reform appearing to be steady at 17% Baxterising these poll figures produces the following G.E. seats:
Labour 451 Conservative 68 Reform 11 LibDems 76 Greens 3 SNP 18 Other (incl Plaid) 5 N.I, 18
The problem was entirely on the MPs, selecting two names and then refusing to back the winner.
If you don’t want someone to be leader, then don’t nominate them in the first place.
The problem was the pool of names they had to choose from
If you don't want only duds, don't select a vindictive clown as leader...
Yes, the lack of Anna Soubry was a blow they never really recovered from.
Just imagine if Truss had left the party rather than Soubry... the country would be in a *much* better state...
The great failure of the Conservative Party in the post 2016 era, is that they have managed to drive out both Anderson (and his ilk) and Soubry (and hers), leaving them with the support of - checks - homeowning pensioners.
Soubry wasn't a loss - only problem has been that CCHQ replaced their ilk with similar Lib Dems. That has greatly weakened the Tories as a parliamentary force, and meant that their 80 seat majority was never really what it appeared.
If you get elected to a party on the right, on a platform of right wing policies, I think the public should be entitled to expect you to believe in them and work to implement them.
Whatever happens after this election, the Tory Party will never survive until CCHQ is completely cleaned out.
Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
Good. The party leader has to be the person the MPs think is best to lead them in Parliament. The membership should have nothing to do with it.
The 'membership vote' was given in exchange for the rank and file giving up the entire democratic structure of a party that once had a million members.
By all means take the membership vote away, if you're prepared to give the right to select MPs themselves back to local associations, taking it back from the disastrous grip of the incompetent and frankly malevolent CCHQ organisation.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
If they do, they'll fade away again and miss their opportunity.
The country doesn't have the space for two large parties of the left.
Indeed, and the protest vote to the left of Labour is a better target for the Green Party in any case.
If matters play out as suggested in the polls then almost the entire Liberal Democrats Parliamentary party will represent classically Tory, wealthier suburban and rural seats, in which the Conservatives remain the second party. They'll have dozens of newly-minted MPs representing relatively well-heeled, small-c conservative people.
The solution to holding those areas probably lies, in crude terms, in exploiting the likely post-election hard right tantrum by the Conservative Party membership to recast the Liberal Democrats as a soft centre-right party, wet Tories without all the Thatcherite and Nasty Party baggage, i.e. rehabilitating the Orange Book tendency, and stop maintaining any fantasies about challenging Labour for the support of the metropolitan left. Now, whether the Liberal Democrat membership is ready to tolerate such a thing, that's the question.
David Cameron: Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening UK’s defences
The foreign secretary says the Labour leader is ‘naive’ about the state of the world and is committed to excessive spending
Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton has labelled Sir Keir Starmer “hopelessly naive” about the dangerous state of the world and warned that Labour will undermine Britain’s security unless it provides a firm commitment to raise defence spending.
The foreign secretary said: “Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening Britain’s position and weakening Britain’s defences. All in a way that’s completely unnecessary.”
Cameron said Britain is under attack from an “axis of malign states” including Russia, China and Iran that are “threatening us domestically”, and that his return to government, seven years after he left No 10, has convinced him “the world is getting more dangerous”.
Rounding on the presumptive PM, Cameron said: “Labour is hopelessly naive about the dangerous world in which we’re living.
“If the next world war is fought between international lawyers, we’ll win hands down. But that’s not going to be the case, so you’ve got to make sure you strengthen your defences. You strengthen your intelligence and security. The last thing we need in Britain now is another liberal leftie lawyer running the country.”
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
I hope not. I hope they will oppose where opposing is appropriate whether that be from the left or right. I suspect it will be against authoritirism which will appear to be from the right.
The Lib Dems support the banning of smoking and the legalisation of cannabis. That sums them up.
Hmmm. We should support good health measures, but not ban people from doing stuff. In addition the banning of drugs encourages organised crime and petty crime like mugging.
Electronic voting is a totally mad idea, and those most against it are those of us who work in technological fields and who actually understand the process.
Worringly I know some people who work in Elections who are in favour of it.
Coming to Brittany you realise what a feat the Welsh have achieved - keeping Welsh alive. It is easy to find people naturally speaking Welsh - thee are entire towns where it is the main language. You walk into bars and shops - they speak Welsh
When I first arrived in Brittany I asked guides where I could find native speakers. They were all all quite furtive - er, try a market, maybe the islands; dunno
Now I realise that they did not want to disappoint me. But the truth is Breton has vanished
Every time a civilising influence arrived they dispersed into the hills
In that respect the Welsh are very much like the Kogi of Colombia
That's quite an enjoyable article. They should get the writer to write for their sister publication and it might be on the way to becoming readable again
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
The problem with that is currently more voters are of the nationalist right or the social democratic left than the liberal centre right
David Cameron: Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening UK’s defences
The foreign secretary says the Labour leader is ‘naive’ about the state of the world and is committed to excessive spending
Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton has labelled Sir Keir Starmer “hopelessly naive” about the dangerous state of the world and warned that Labour will undermine Britain’s security unless it provides a firm commitment to raise defence spending.
The foreign secretary said: “Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening Britain’s position and weakening Britain’s defences. All in a way that’s completely unnecessary.”
Cameron said Britain is under attack from an “axis of malign states” including Russia, China and Iran that are “threatening us domestically”, and that his return to government, seven years after he left No 10, has convinced him “the world is getting more dangerous”.
Rounding on the presumptive PM, Cameron said: “Labour is hopelessly naive about the dangerous world in which we’re living.
“If the next world war is fought between international lawyers, we’ll win hands down. But that’s not going to be the case, so you’ve got to make sure you strengthen your defences. You strengthen your intelligence and security. The last thing we need in Britain now is another liberal leftie lawyer running the country.”
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
If they do, they'll fade away again and miss their opportunity.
The country doesn't have the space for two large parties of the left.
Indeed, and the protest vote to the left of Labour is a better target for the Green Party in any case.
If matters play out as suggested in the polls then almost the entire Liberal Democrats Parliamentary party will represent classically Tory, wealthier suburban and rural seats, in which the Conservatives remain the second party. They'll have dozens of newly-minted MPs representing relatively well-heeled, small-c conservative people.
The solution to holding those areas probably lies, in crude terms, in exploiting the likely post-election hard right tantrum by the Conservative Party membership to recast the Liberal Democrats as a soft centre-right party, wet Tories without all the Thatcherite and Nasty Party baggage, i.e. rehabilitating the Orange Book tendency, and stop maintaining any fantasies about challenging Labour for the support of the metropolitan left. Now, whether the Liberal Democrat membership is ready to tolerate such a thing, that's the question.
They will be representing the left-of-centre electors in those seats, plus a large transitory anti-government vote. The right-of-centre electors will still mostly be voting Tory and Refuk.
David Cameron: Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening UK’s defences
The foreign secretary says the Labour leader is ‘naive’ about the state of the world and is committed to excessive spending
Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton has labelled Sir Keir Starmer “hopelessly naive” about the dangerous state of the world and warned that Labour will undermine Britain’s security unless it provides a firm commitment to raise defence spending.
The foreign secretary said: “Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening Britain’s position and weakening Britain’s defences. All in a way that’s completely unnecessary.”
Cameron said Britain is under attack from an “axis of malign states” including Russia, China and Iran that are “threatening us domestically”, and that his return to government, seven years after he left No 10, has convinced him “the world is getting more dangerous”.
Rounding on the presumptive PM, Cameron said: “Labour is hopelessly naive about the dangerous world in which we’re living.
“If the next world war is fought between international lawyers, we’ll win hands down. But that’s not going to be the case, so you’ve got to make sure you strengthen your defences. You strengthen your intelligence and security. The last thing we need in Britain now is another liberal leftie lawyer running the country.”
Trump leads 2% on average, now. I loathe him, but there’s a tendency here to cherry pick any poll that favours Biden. That is unforgivable on a betting site.
It isn't given a poll was posted yesterday putting Trump 8% ahead and we were all told that meant it was over and Biden was dead in the water.
24 hrs later and we see that again debates usually make little difference to national polling longer term
David Cameron: Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening UK’s defences
The foreign secretary says the Labour leader is ‘naive’ about the state of the world and is committed to excessive spending
Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton has labelled Sir Keir Starmer “hopelessly naive” about the dangerous state of the world and warned that Labour will undermine Britain’s security unless it provides a firm commitment to raise defence spending.
The foreign secretary said: “Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening Britain’s position and weakening Britain’s defences. All in a way that’s completely unnecessary.”
Cameron said Britain is under attack from an “axis of malign states” including Russia, China and Iran that are “threatening us domestically”, and that his return to government, seven years after he left No 10, has convinced him “the world is getting more dangerous”.
Rounding on the presumptive PM, Cameron said: “Labour is hopelessly naive about the dangerous world in which we’re living.
“If the next world war is fought between international lawyers, we’ll win hands down. But that’s not going to be the case, so you’ve got to make sure you strengthen your defences. You strengthen your intelligence and security. The last thing we need in Britain now is another liberal leftie lawyer running the country.”
Tactical voting could propel Labour to victory in Scotland
Almost half of those polled and planning to vote tactically are doing so to defeat the SNP
The poll found that support for the Conservatives dropped by a point to 13 per cent while backing for Farage’s Reform UK Party increased by one point to 8 per cent, the same as the Liberal Democrats.
Both Labour and the SNP increased their share of the vote by a point to 35 per cent and 31 per cent, respectively. The Greens scored 3 per cent and Alba 1 per cent.
Unionists are far more likely to vote for a certain party not because they support it but because it is the one most likely to defeat the SNP where they are. Analysis by Nortstat, which acquired the research panel Panelbase, suggests almost half (49 per cent) of those who plan to vote tactically are doing so to defeat the SNP.
Of the rest who are voting tactically, 39 per cent are doing so in an attempt to unseat the Conservatives.
Worrying although there has been no direct threat. The Jewish groups fear they might be swept up in action against firms that "support" (in some way or other) Israel.
They're illustrating the story with footage of a Cambridge University student first aired about two months ago. What's happened to the Telegraph? They seem to be manufacturing stories
They do manufacture stories, and some of their writers are either lobotomised or deliberately lying. I won't step back and suggest a childish incompetence; they know what they are doing.
This article pushing their "but the cyclists" agenda - presumably aiming to motivate the Tory vote, which also featured on the front page, consists almost entirely of obviously fictional claims, and inflammatory allegations built on top of the fictional claims. Yes there are some debates to be had - it must not be by lies and media hate campaigning.
I'll use my picture of the day for the relevant front page.
The contemporary Telegraph is toilet paper, with a few exceptions such as the Ukraine coverage team. I don't normally engage with this stuff, as it is a sunk cost (like IDS is a flushed turd) not worth my time, and I can achieve more working on positives with my activism time.
David Cameron: Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening UK’s defences
The foreign secretary says the Labour leader is ‘naive’ about the state of the world and is committed to excessive spending
Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton has labelled Sir Keir Starmer “hopelessly naive” about the dangerous state of the world and warned that Labour will undermine Britain’s security unless it provides a firm commitment to raise defence spending.
The foreign secretary said: “Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening Britain’s position and weakening Britain’s defences. All in a way that’s completely unnecessary.”
Cameron said Britain is under attack from an “axis of malign states” including Russia, China and Iran that are “threatening us domestically”, and that his return to government, seven years after he left No 10, has convinced him “the world is getting more dangerous”.
Rounding on the presumptive PM, Cameron said: “Labour is hopelessly naive about the dangerous world in which we’re living.
“If the next world war is fought between international lawyers, we’ll win hands down. But that’s not going to be the case, so you’ve got to make sure you strengthen your defences. You strengthen your intelligence and security. The last thing we need in Britain now is another liberal leftie lawyer running the country.”
ir John Curtice, the polling expert, found that it could also lead to the Tories holding six seats — despite Douglas Ross, the outgoing Scottish Conservative leader, proving to be less popular than Nigel Farage north of the border.
According to Curtice’s projections, this would result in Labour returning 28 MPs, up from its cohort of two before parliament was dissolved, while the SNP would have 18, the Conservatives six and the Lib Dems five.
Opinium 20 point lead. Labour is on 40% (unchanged compared with a week ago), while the Conservatives are on 20% (also unchanged). Reform UK is up 1 point on 17%, the Liberal Democrats up 1 point on 13% and the Greens down 3 points on 6%.
According to Curtice’s projections, this would result in Labour returning 28 MPs, up from its cohort of two before parliament was dissolved, while the SNP would have 18, the Conservatives six and the Lib Dems five.
Not perfect, but I'd take it (and so would all the unionist parties I imagine).
Comments
I've got a theory that in 2015 when the Lib Dems collapsed a big percentage of the rise of UKIP came directly from Lib Dems as the party of "other" switched.
Can't prove it, but its what I suspect.
If we had PR, then the voting will change, so applying PR to a FPTP result and saying "this is what it should be" doesn't work.
Biden allies have played out the scenarios and see little chance of anyone besides Harris winning the nomination if he stepped aside.
https://www.axios.com/2024/06/29/biden-debate-replace-advisers
Journey through South Cambs bypasses some of the villages, but where we did pass houses nearly all the election paraphernalia consisted of Lib Dem diamonds, and there was one Green. Hardly a surprise - they're almost bound to win the seat - but just thought I'd mention.
Anyway, someone may have posted this already, but never mind:
In the final stretch of the campaign before the big day on July 4, there is huge scepticism among both Labour and Tory activists about the polls that show Rishi Sunak’s party being almost completely wiped out.
It is not just expectation management. Those on the doorstep report genuinely that there are too many undecided voters, “hard don’t knows” – even at this late stage – for the more dramatic MRPs to be trusted.
On the Labour side, people are naturally worried that the foregone conclusion could affect voter motivation to go to the polls. “It’s a conspiracy to lower turnout,” one Labour candidate seeking re-election said, only half joking.
There is concern, too, that the recent focus on stories revealing how candidates have placed bets on political events will only encourage cynicism. Have the Gambling Commission and police investigations effectively given already apathetic voters permission to switch off entirely?
“Tories are slightly worried about causing more issues so they’re going to be quiet going into the final week,” a Conservative insider said. “It will be very hyper-localised. Let what local candidates do best and knock on as many doors as possible.”
Conservatives are now talking about securing over 100 MPs as “we’ll take that” territory – apparently it is under 100 that is unacceptable, and third place behind the Lib Dems in seats where they will “hit every emergency button you can possibly find”. Current expectations are that they will return 100 to 150 MPs.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/party-activists-strongly-sceptical-polls-predicting-tory-wipeout-july-4-approaches
James Carville — the "Ragin' Cajun" - quoting Stein.
The Telegraph has a lorra-lorra plonkers, these days.
Maybe Elisabeth Oakeshott had someone tell her something in strictest confidence with an NDA?
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
The foreign secretary says the Labour leader is ‘naive’ about the state of the world and is committed to excessive spending
Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton has labelled Sir Keir Starmer “hopelessly naive” about the dangerous state of the world and warned that Labour will undermine Britain’s security unless it provides a firm commitment to raise defence spending.
The foreign secretary said: “Keir Starmer is in danger of weakening Britain’s position and weakening Britain’s defences. All in a way that’s completely unnecessary.”
Cameron said Britain is under attack from an “axis of malign states” including Russia, China and Iran that are “threatening us domestically”, and that his return to government, seven years after he left No 10, has convinced him “the world is getting more dangerous”.
Rounding on the presumptive PM, Cameron said: “Labour is hopelessly naive about the dangerous world in which we’re living.
“If the next world war is fought between international lawyers, we’ll win hands down. But that’s not going to be the case, so you’ve got to make sure you strengthen your defences. You strengthen your intelligence and security. The last thing we need in Britain now is another liberal leftie lawyer running the country.”
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/david-cameron-interview-general-election-foreign-secretary-jwpg0337s
I think the Conservatives ran very poor campaigns in 2010 and 2017, but this one has been atrocious.
The country doesn't have the space for two large parties of the left.
The ferry is going to be an extra 3 weeks late ...
https://news.stv.tv/scotland/overdue-ferry-glen-sannox-hit-by-new-delay-due-to-fuel-problems
Spoke this morning to a couple people close to President Biden. Hard to overstate how much he dismisses the political class and media in private. Believes many of them haven’t understood him for decades, don’t get his appeal. Cares what elected Ds with real power and voters say.
Clue for non football followers: Watford have no chance of promotion next season!
Can you make it stick that long?
https://x.com/paddypower/status/1807100030295081122
It's a total mess, Biden shouldn't have been in the running at all, and the Democrats could have found a decent candidate, now it looks like they've given Trump a real chance of winning again.
Everybody loves fun Uncle Davey, not that weird uncle at the bar.
🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday @Telegraph
📈Lowest Labour vote share since January 2022
🌹Lab 38 (-4)
🌳Con 21 (=)
➡️Reform 14 (=)
🔶LD 11 (+1)
🌍Green 6 (+1)
🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
⬜️Other 7 (+1)
2,092 UK adults
26-28 June (chg from 21-24 June)
https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1807104242856964559
In your little corner of the world
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8175/
For comic effect, I am pretending not to know that David Cameron was Prime Minister when liberal leftie lawyers took an axe to Britain's defences.
Candidates for Gaza East?
Compare and contrast with the US system, which varies from state-to-state, and where many seem to use closed software and machines and processes of dubious reliability and openness.
(*) An incredibly bad proposal.
Baxterising these poll figures produces the following G.E. seats:
Labour 451
Conservative 68
Reform 11
LibDems 76
Greens 3
SNP 18
Other (incl Plaid) 5
N.I, 18
Total: 650
Labour Majority 252
On the plus side, despite me being in the UK they instruct me comprar una licencia. That VPN is paying off
If you get elected to a party on the right, on a platform of right wing policies, I think the public should be entitled to expect you to believe in them and work to implement them.
Whatever happens after this election, the Tory Party will never survive until CCHQ is completely cleaned out. The 'membership vote' was given in exchange for the rank and file giving up the entire democratic structure of a party that once had a million members.
By all means take the membership vote away, if you're prepared to give the right to select MPs themselves back to local associations, taking it back from the disastrous grip of the incompetent and frankly malevolent CCHQ organisation.
https://conservativehome.com/2022/11/11/john-strafford-members-should-lose-their-vote-for-the-leader-but-regain-control-of-the-party/
If matters play out as suggested in the polls then almost the entire Liberal Democrats Parliamentary party will represent classically Tory, wealthier suburban and rural seats, in which the Conservatives remain the second party. They'll have dozens of newly-minted MPs representing relatively well-heeled, small-c conservative people.
The solution to holding those areas probably lies, in crude terms, in exploiting the likely post-election hard right tantrum by the Conservative Party membership to recast the Liberal Democrats as a soft centre-right party, wet Tories without all the Thatcherite and Nasty Party baggage, i.e. rehabilitating the Orange Book tendency, and stop maintaining any fantasies about challenging Labour for the support of the metropolitan left. Now, whether the Liberal Democrat membership is ready to tolerate such a thing, that's the question.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=38&LIB=11&Reform=14&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=14&SCOTLAB=35&SCOTLIB=7.7&SCOTReform=5&SCOTGreen=2.3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=31.7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
(Yes, I know, "Exhibit C" ') )
Like a candle in the wind
Never knowing who to cling to
When the rain set in
24 hrs later and we see that again debates usually make little difference to national polling longer term
Tactical voting could propel Labour to victory in Scotland
Almost half of those polled and planning to vote tactically are doing so to defeat the SNP
The poll found that support for the Conservatives dropped by a point to 13 per cent while backing for Farage’s Reform UK Party increased by one point to 8 per cent, the same as the Liberal Democrats.
Both Labour and the SNP increased their share of the vote by a point to 35 per cent and 31 per cent, respectively. The Greens scored 3 per cent and Alba 1 per cent.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/tactical-voting-propel-labour-victory-scotland-election-5dwdh5070
You must be choking.
Of the rest who are voting tactically, 39 per cent are doing so in an attempt to unseat the Conservatives.
This article pushing their "but the cyclists" agenda - presumably aiming to motivate the Tory vote, which also featured on the front page, consists almost entirely of obviously fictional claims, and inflammatory allegations built on top of the fictional claims. Yes there are some debates to be had - it must not be by lies and media hate campaigning.
https://archive.ph/YPMud
I'll use my picture of the day for the relevant front page.
The contemporary Telegraph is toilet paper, with a few exceptions such as the Ukraine coverage team. I don't normally engage with this stuff, as it is a sunk cost (like IDS is a flushed turd) not worth my time, and I can achieve more working on positives with my activism time.
You can tell it's not real, there are women and children on that boat.
Though he needs to be further ahead than that, given the situation in swing states.