Labour is on 40% (unchanged compared with a week ago), while the Conservatives are on 20% (also unchanged). Reform UK is up 1 point on 17%, the Liberal Democrats up 1 point on 13% and the Greens down 3 points on 6%.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
If they do, they'll fade away again and miss their opportunity.
The country doesn't have the space for two large parties of the left.
Indeed, and the protest vote to the left of Labour is a better target for the Green Party in any case.
If matters play out as suggested in the polls then almost the entire Liberal Democrats Parliamentary party will represent classically Tory, wealthier suburban and rural seats, in which the Conservatives remain the second party. They'll have dozens of newly-minted MPs representing relatively well-heeled, small-c conservative people.
The solution to holding those areas probably lies, in crude terms, in exploiting the likely post-election hard right tantrum by the Conservative Party membership to recast the Liberal Democrats as a soft centre-right party, wet Tories without all the Thatcherite and Nasty Party baggage, i.e. rehabilitating the Orange Book tendency, and stop maintaining any fantasies about challenging Labour for the support of the metropolitan left. Now, whether the Liberal Democrat membership is ready to tolerate such a thing, that's the question.
The LibDems are also likely to be representing seats most hurt by Labour's tax rises. Going to be quite some balancing act in the next Parliament to represent their voters whilst calling for higher taxes than Labour are implementing, to increase services above the level Labour manages.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
If they do, they'll fade away again and miss their opportunity.
The country doesn't have the space for two large parties of the left.
Indeed, and the protest vote to the left of Labour is a better target for the Green Party in any case.
If matters play out as suggested in the polls then almost the entire Liberal Democrats Parliamentary party will represent classically Tory, wealthier suburban and rural seats, in which the Conservatives remain the second party. They'll have dozens of newly-minted MPs representing relatively well-heeled, small-c conservative people.
The solution to holding those areas probably lies, in crude terms, in exploiting the likely post-election hard right tantrum by the Conservative Party membership to recast the Liberal Democrats as a soft centre-right party, wet Tories without all the Thatcherite and Nasty Party baggage, i.e. rehabilitating the Orange Book tendency, and stop maintaining any fantasies about challenging Labour for the support of the metropolitan left. Now, whether the Liberal Democrat membership is ready to tolerate such a thing, that's the question.
They will be representing the left-of-centre electors in those seats, plus a large transitory anti-government vote. The right-of-centre electors will still mostly be voting Tory and Refuk.
Urban refugees from London's stupid house prices are relevant in the Home Counties seats certainly, but this isn't simply a case of cornering the support of out-and-out lefties through tactical voting. There are likely to be some heroic swings against the Government in these areas, and that's not going to come without large scale backing from Tory switchers.
If the Conservative Party, whose reputation for probity, competence and economic prudence has been completely trashed already, goes flying off to the Hard Right in pursuit of the purple-faced Reform defectors, then it's going to leave a vacancy for a centre-right party to completely take over the support of aspirational voters.
According to Curtice’s projections, this would result in Labour returning 28 MPs, up from its cohort of two before parliament was dissolved, while the SNP would have 18, the Conservatives six and the Lib Dems five.
Not perfect, but I'd take it (and so would all the unionist parties I imagine).
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
If they do, they'll fade away again and miss their opportunity.
The country doesn't have the space for two large parties of the left.
Indeed, and the protest vote to the left of Labour is a better target for the Green Party in any case.
If matters play out as suggested in the polls then almost the entire Liberal Democrats Parliamentary party will represent classically Tory, wealthier suburban and rural seats, in which the Conservatives remain the second party. They'll have dozens of newly-minted MPs representing relatively well-heeled, small-c conservative people.
The solution to holding those areas probably lies, in crude terms, in exploiting the likely post-election hard right tantrum by the Conservative Party membership to recast the Liberal Democrats as a soft centre-right party, wet Tories without all the Thatcherite and Nasty Party baggage, i.e. rehabilitating the Orange Book tendency, and stop maintaining any fantasies about challenging Labour for the support of the metropolitan left. Now, whether the Liberal Democrat membership is ready to tolerate such a thing, that's the question.
The LibDems are also likely to be representing seats most hurt by Labour's tax rises. Going to be quite some balancing act in the next Parliament to represent their voters whilst calling for higher taxes than Labour are implementing, to increase services above the level Labour manages.
That I think is very fair comment.
Perhaps Ed Davey needs to do a PR stunt involving juggling?
Personally, having watched him win pretty much full sets of straight As through his school years and a large succession of prizes plus school captain, whilst also doing all the stuff at home that we have found out of which I did not know the detail, I wouldn't suggest at this point that it is beyond his abilities.
It's probably about how good his actual political skills are as party leader with a decent population of MPs, which I think needs skills I have not seen him have to show before.
I think the single most important adviser / strategist may well be Mark Pack, though others here may know other names.
My initial thought was that India's incredible bowling attack would deliver. I fully admit that I wobbled. This tournament has shown this is not simply a batsman's game.
Unionists are far more likely to vote for a certain party not because they support it but because it is the one most likely to defeat the SNP where they are. Analysis by Nortstat, which acquired the research panel Panelbase, suggests almost half (49 per cent) of those who plan to vote tactically are doing so to defeat the SNP.
Of the rest who are voting tactically, 39 per cent are doing so in an attempt to unseat the Conservatives.
Are you slightly sceptical about these seat calculators? I am a bit.
I agree. Particularly as regards the Tories and the LibDems. After a numer of successive polls showing the Orange team in second place, on this occasion they are just behind the Tories. My gut feeling is that on these levels of support, I would feel more comfortable to see the Tories rather further ahead, i.e. leading by around 20-25 seats instead of by only 5 seats
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
If they do, they'll fade away again and miss their opportunity.
The country doesn't have the space for two large parties of the left.
Indeed, and the protest vote to the left of Labour is a better target for the Green Party in any case.
If matters play out as suggested in the polls then almost the entire Liberal Democrats Parliamentary party will represent classically Tory, wealthier suburban and rural seats, in which the Conservatives remain the second party. They'll have dozens of newly-minted MPs representing relatively well-heeled, small-c conservative people.
The solution to holding those areas probably lies, in crude terms, in exploiting the likely post-election hard right tantrum by the Conservative Party membership to recast the Liberal Democrats as a soft centre-right party, wet Tories without all the Thatcherite and Nasty Party baggage, i.e. rehabilitating the Orange Book tendency, and stop maintaining any fantasies about challenging Labour for the support of the metropolitan left. Now, whether the Liberal Democrat membership is ready to tolerate such a thing, that's the question.
The LibDems are also likely to be representing seats most hurt by Labour's tax rises. Going to be quite some balancing act in the next Parliament to represent their voters whilst calling for higher taxes than Labour are implementing, to increase services above the level Labour manages.
That I think is very fair comment.
Perhaps Ed Davey needs to do a PR stunt involving juggling?
Personally, having watched him win pretty much full sets of straight As through his school years and a large succession of prizes plus school captain, whilst also doing all the stuff at home that we have found out of which I did not know the detail, I wouldn't suggest at this point that it is beyond his abilities.
It's probably about how good his actual political skills are as party leader with a decent population of MPs, which I think needs skills I have not seen him have to show before.
I think the single most important adviser / strategist may well be Mark Pack, though others here may know other names.
More likely, we will see him riding two seaside donkeys, going in different directions...
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
If they do, they'll fade away again and miss their opportunity.
The country doesn't have the space for two large parties of the left.
Indeed, and the protest vote to the left of Labour is a better target for the Green Party in any case.
If matters play out as suggested in the polls then almost the entire Liberal Democrats Parliamentary party will represent classically Tory, wealthier suburban and rural seats, in which the Conservatives remain the second party. They'll have dozens of newly-minted MPs representing relatively well-heeled, small-c conservative people.
The solution to holding those areas probably lies, in crude terms, in exploiting the likely post-election hard right tantrum by the Conservative Party membership to recast the Liberal Democrats as a soft centre-right party, wet Tories without all the Thatcherite and Nasty Party baggage, i.e. rehabilitating the Orange Book tendency, and stop maintaining any fantasies about challenging Labour for the support of the metropolitan left. Now, whether the Liberal Democrat membership is ready to tolerate such a thing, that's the question.
The LibDems are also likely to be representing seats most hurt by Labour's tax rises. Going to be quite some balancing act in the next Parliament to represent their voters whilst calling for higher taxes than Labour are implementing, to increase services above the level Labour manages.
That I think is very fair comment.
Perhaps Ed Davey needs to do a PR stunt involving juggling?
Personally, having watched him win pretty much full sets of straight As through his school years and a large succession of prizes plus school captain, whilst also doing all the stuff at home that we have found out of which I did not know the detail, I wouldn't suggest at this point that it is beyond his abilities.
It's probably about how good his actual political skills are as party leader with a decent population of MPs, which I think needs skills I have not seen him have to show before.
I think the single most important adviser / strategist may well be Mark Pack, though others here may know other names.
More likely, we will see him riding two seaside donkeys, going in different directions...
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
If they do, they'll fade away again and miss their opportunity.
The country doesn't have the space for two large parties of the left.
Indeed, and the protest vote to the left of Labour is a better target for the Green Party in any case.
If matters play out as suggested in the polls then almost the entire Liberal Democrats Parliamentary party will represent classically Tory, wealthier suburban and rural seats, in which the Conservatives remain the second party. They'll have dozens of newly-minted MPs representing relatively well-heeled, small-c conservative people.
The solution to holding those areas probably lies, in crude terms, in exploiting the likely post-election hard right tantrum by the Conservative Party membership to recast the Liberal Democrats as a soft centre-right party, wet Tories without all the Thatcherite and Nasty Party baggage, i.e. rehabilitating the Orange Book tendency, and stop maintaining any fantasies about challenging Labour for the support of the metropolitan left. Now, whether the Liberal Democrat membership is ready to tolerate such a thing, that's the question.
The LibDems are also likely to be representing seats most hurt by Labour's tax rises. Going to be quite some balancing act in the next Parliament to represent their voters whilst calling for higher taxes than Labour are implementing, to increase services above the level Labour manages.
That I think is very fair comment.
Perhaps Ed Davey needs to do a PR stunt involving juggling?
Personally, having watched him win pretty much full sets of straight As through his school years and a large succession of prizes plus school captain, whilst also doing all the stuff at home that we have found out of which I did not know the detail, I wouldn't suggest at this point that it is beyond his abilities.
It's probably about how good his actual political skills are as party leader with a decent population of MPs, which I think needs skills I have not seen him have to show before.
I think the single most important adviser / strategist may well be Mark Pack, though others here may know other names.
Reflecting further, I would love to see Jonathon Calder in the House of Lords as Lord Bonkers - probably a folorn hope, and I will have to keep remembering to read his blog.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 6h Publicly at least, Democrats have sunk into their own sea of unreality in the last 24 hours, as deep as some Republicans'. The idea that that was just an off-beat debate performance (a la Obama's first in 2012, or even Reagan's first in 84) is risible.
Unionists are far more likely to vote for a certain party not because they support it but because it is the one most likely to defeat the SNP where they are. Analysis by Nortstat, which acquired the research panel Panelbase, suggests almost half (49 per cent) of those who plan to vote tactically are doing so to defeat the SNP.
Of the rest who are voting tactically, 39 per cent are doing so in an attempt to unseat the Conservatives.
I voted tactically last time. But not this time
My MIL voted Labour today in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. We will vote Tory in Angus and the Perthshire Glens. My daughter will vote Lib Dem in Edinburgh SW. My other daughter will probably vote Tory in Perth and North Perthshire. It is all about beating the SNP. That is what Scottish politics is about, sadly.
Unionists are far more likely to vote for a certain party not because they support it but because it is the one most likely to defeat the SNP where they are. Analysis by Nortstat, which acquired the research panel Panelbase, suggests almost half (49 per cent) of those who plan to vote tactically are doing so to defeat the SNP.
Of the rest who are voting tactically, 39 per cent are doing so in an attempt to unseat the Conservatives.
I voted tactically last time. But not this time
My MIL voted Labour today in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. We will vote Tory in Angus and the Perthshire Glens. My daughter will vote Lib Dem in Edinburgh SW. My other daughter will probably vote Tory in Perth and North Perthshire. It is all about beating the SNP. That is what Scottish politics is about, sadly.
I have the luxury of a labour MP, so am pleased to express free and meaningless support for the Cons
Our relations with external potentially antagonistic regimes are interesting. China and Russia were both potentially antagonistic states in the mid-1990s; Russia's power was waning, whilst China's power was growing. How much do you cosy up to them in an attempt to bring them into the fold (and do your own economy good...), and how much do you berate them for poor behaviour? And at what point do you cry "enough is enough!"
In the case of Russia, we bent over backwards to help them in the 1990s - yet the claims of many pro-Russian shills is that we 'rubbed their noses' in their defeat and didn't really help them. IMV we should have been stronger after the Georgia invasion in 2008, let alone 2014 or Salisbury.
But China? Perhaps - and I say this with my fingers very crossed - our economies are so intertwined that Xi realises that a war might cripple his country. But I fear people like Xi and Putin value their place in history more highly than the short- or medium-term health of their economy or people.
And this leads to another potential giant: India. A country that has the resources and people to be a superpower - sometimes (from my view) despite itself. We have a complex relationship with China, to put it mildly, but what can we do to find a future that's good for both us and them?
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
If they do, they'll fade away again and miss their opportunity.
The country doesn't have the space for two large parties of the left.
That's assuming that Starmer's Labour Party will be a party of the left. Starmer seems to be promising a more efficient version of the Tories.
Interesting that as the election has approached, YouGov now better for the Tories than Opinium having long been their worst pollster. I'm thinking a 15 to 17 point margin now looks quite likely if we allow for a smidgen of shy Tory/buckle on the day and depending on vote efficiency I believe the Tories will get between 95 and 175 seats, but I'm going to await the final MRPs before committing to a tighter range
According to Curtice’s projections, this would result in Labour returning 28 MPs, up from its cohort of two before parliament was dissolved, while the SNP would have 18, the Conservatives six and the Lib Dems five.
It says UK, so Northern Ireland parties plus Plaid Cymru plus Buckethead.
That surely doesn't amount to 7% unless there is a huge surge for Buckethead. NI is just over 2%, PC more like 1%. Its odd but I do think that Labour might have leaked some pro Palestinians.
The campaign of endless disaster that just keeps on giving...
Kevin Schofield @KevinASchofield · 59m Exclusive: The Tories' warning of a Labour "supermajority" has backfired, a new poll has revealed.
26% of voters say it makes them more likely to vote for Keir Starmer's party, compared to just 13% who will now back the Conservatives.
That needs some clarification. If the 26% were 9/10 Labour moving to 10/10, makes damn all difference. Whereas 13% moving towards the Tories at whatever level could be important.
According to Curtice’s projections, this would result in Labour returning 28 MPs, up from its cohort of two before parliament was dissolved, while the SNP would have 18, the Conservatives six and the Lib Dems five.
Tories holding onto their 6 seats, including AN&ME I assume.
Savanta seem to constantly find lots of others which seems strange . I would think Reform will drop a few points and Farages Trumpian histrionics isn’t going to help them .
Problem for the Tories is the vast majority of postal votes are in which is likely to make up approx 20% of all valid votes cast.
Opinium is a pretty good poll for Labour given its past history as it was one of the friendlier ones for the Tories .
It says UK, so Northern Ireland parties plus Plaid Cymru plus Buckethead.
That surely doesn't amount to 7% unless there is a huge surge for Buckethead. NI is just over 2%, PC more like 1%. Its odd but I do think that Labour might have leaked some pro Palestinians.
Well, if Glasto is anything to go by, the "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn" set are sporting a sea of Palestinian flags. Not even seen the Forest flag, that has been visible at the front of the crowd for a couple of decdes.
I have decided to test @another_richard’s theory that I’m just seeing the nice side of Brittany
So I chose a town basically at random. I saw a flat for one night - very cheap. An hour away. In a town I’ve never heard of. I saw a photo of a river. Seemed ok
Cheapness of apartment - £60 for 1 night for a whole apartment - would normally indicate a bit of a dump
It is not a dump. The centre is stunning. No really. I’m sitting on an inhabited bridge - its houses and bars stand over a rushing river. There are streets of 19th century beauty and streets of 15-17th century charm
There is evidence of economic distress - a few closed shops. This is not a posh town. It’s quite rough - a double g&t in this over-the-river bar is €8. Everyone is smoking and shouting
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
If they do, they'll fade away again and miss their opportunity.
The country doesn't have the space for two large parties of the left.
Indeed, and the protest vote to the left of Labour is a better target for the Green Party in any case.
If matters play out as suggested in the polls then almost the entire Liberal Democrats Parliamentary party will represent classically Tory, wealthier suburban and rural seats, in which the Conservatives remain the second party. They'll have dozens of newly-minted MPs representing relatively well-heeled, small-c conservative people.
The solution to holding those areas probably lies, in crude terms, in exploiting the likely post-election hard right tantrum by the Conservative Party membership to recast the Liberal Democrats as a soft centre-right party, wet Tories without all the Thatcherite and Nasty Party baggage, i.e. rehabilitating the Orange Book tendency, and stop maintaining any fantasies about challenging Labour for the support of the metropolitan left. Now, whether the Liberal Democrat membership is ready to tolerate such a thing, that's the question.
The LibDems are also likely to be representing seats most hurt by Labour's tax rises. Going to be quite some balancing act in the next Parliament to represent their voters whilst calling for higher taxes than Labour are implementing, to increase services above the level Labour manages.
That I think is very fair comment.
Perhaps Ed Davey needs to do a PR stunt involving juggling?
Personally, having watched him win pretty much full sets of straight As through his school years and a large succession of prizes plus school captain, whilst also doing all the stuff at home that we have found out of which I did not know the detail, I wouldn't suggest at this point that it is beyond his abilities.
It's probably about how good his actual political skills are as party leader with a decent population of MPs, which I think needs skills I have not seen him have to show before.
I think the single most important adviser / strategist may well be Mark Pack, though others here may know other names.
He did juggling in Edinburgh today. Plus plate spinning and a bit of hula hoop.
It says UK, so Northern Ireland parties plus Plaid Cymru plus Buckethead.
That surely doesn't amount to 7% unless there is a huge surge for Buckethead. NI is just over 2%, PC more like 1%. Its odd but I do think that Labour might have leaked some pro Palestinians.
Well, if Glasto is anything to go by, the "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn" set are sporting a sea of Palestinian flags. Not even seen the Forest flag, that has been visible at the front of the crowd for a couple of decdes.
However, a ton of those will be voting Green. This is true for both the studenty left vote and the Islamic interest vote. And to me it is why the Greens are remaining on figures more like 6% than 3%. However, apart from them, there will be only a few impactful Islamic-interest independents and Galloway candidates. These big numbers from Savanta may have something to do with the UK sample, intention to vote in NI, and what have you. No idea, I'm afraid.
Opinium were almost bang on in 2019 but have changed their methodology since.
I will stick with Labour on about 40%.
Sunak's strategy actually had some sense in it but he simply wasn't able to execute.
It was clearly to wrongfoot and cripple Reform, and then go for Labour on tax. And you can see that playing out in what CCHQ has done.
Almost could have worked. Had he got it right the Tories could have been up at 32-33% and Labour at 37-38% and a hung parliament.
Which would have been pretty much spot on my call when the election was announced.
But I could be forgiven for thinking that no PM would be dumb enough to leave D-Day early when making my calculation.
Or having staff vote on the date of the election when they knew it.
And then to treat Farage with a velvet glove - rather than smashing him in the face with a mailed fist.
The only person who can have taken any grim satisfaction at the shite nature of the campaign is Theresa May. No longer the holder of the sobriquet of "Runner of the Worst Ever Election Camapign. Ever."
Opinium were almost bang on in 2019 but have changed their methodology since.
I will stick with Labour on about 40%.
Sunak's strategy actually had some sense in it but he simply wasn't able to execute.
It was clearly to wrongfoot and cripple Reform, and then go for Labour on tax. And you can see that playing out in what CCHQ has done.
Almost could have worked. Had he got it right the Tories could have been up at 32-33% and Labour at 37-38% and a hung parliament.
Which would have been pretty much spot on my call when the election was announced.
But I could be forgiven for thinking that no PM would be dumb enough to leave D-Day early when making my calculation.
Or having staff vote on the date of the election when they knew it.
And then to treat Farage with a velvet glove - rather than smashing him in the face with a mailed fist.
The only person who can have taken any grim satisfaction at the shite nature of the campaign is Theresa May. No longer the holder of the sobriquet of "Runner of the Worst Ever Election Camapign. Ever."
Opinium were almost bang on in 2019 but have changed their methodology since.
I will stick with Labour on about 40%.
Sunak's strategy actually had some sense in it but he simply wasn't able to execute.
It was clearly to wrongfoot and cripple Reform, and then go for Labour on tax. And you can see that playing out in what CCHQ has done.
Almost could have worked. Had he got it right the Tories could have been up at 32-33% and Labour at 37-38% and a hung parliament.
Which would have been pretty much spot on my call when the election was announced.
But I could be forgiven for thinking that no PM would be dumb enough to leave D-Day early when making my calculation.
Or having staff vote on the date of the election when they knew it.
And then to treat Farage with a velvet glove - rather than smashing him in the face with a mailed fist.
The only person who can have taken any grim satisfaction at the shite nature of the campaign is Theresa May. No longer the holder of the sobriquet of "Runner of the Worst Ever Election Camapign. Ever."
You think CON are done for?
I think they will get a gubbing on Thursday.
But talk of the death of the most successful political party of the past couple of decades is seriously overdone. And will probably appear comical within the year.
I have decided to test @another_richard’s theory that I’m just seeing the nice side of Brittany
So I chose a town basically at random. I saw a flat for one night - very cheap. An hour away. In a town I’ve never heard of. I saw a photo of a river. Seemed ok
Cheapness of apartment - £60 for 1 night for a whole apartment - would normally indicate a bit of a dump
It is not a dump. The centre is stunning. No really. I’m sitting on an inhabited bridge - its houses and bars stand over a rushing river. There are streets of 19th century beauty and streets of 15-17th century charm
There is evidence of economic distress - a few closed shops. This is not a posh town. It’s quite rough - a double g&t in this over-the-river bar is €8. Everyone is smoking and shouting
Yes, bit of an outlier though if it has the oldest inhabited bridge in Europe. On the Cornwall Cornouaille analogy I would guess Brittany has its Redruths and Callingtons and St Austells.
Opinium were almost bang on in 2019 but have changed their methodology since.
I will stick with Labour on about 40%.
Sunak's strategy actually had some sense in it but he simply wasn't able to execute.
It was clearly to wrongfoot and cripple Reform, and then go for Labour on tax. And you can see that playing out in what CCHQ has done.
Almost could have worked. Had he got it right the Tories could have been up at 32-33% and Labour at 37-38% and a hung parliament.
Hard disagree. The Conservatives are really really hated. It's (mostly) not about the campaign.
In fact, the badness of the campaign is partially a function of people just not wanting to listen. The bad stuff has been accentuated because people WANT them to be having a bad campaign. Any good stuff has been underplayed.
Simply, the world isn't listening. And won't until you go away for a few years. There's a route back and that is to stop being like you've been the past five years. My strong recommendation is take a leaf out of Starmer's book and purge the margins. Fight from the centre.
Coming to Brittany you realise what a feat the Welsh have achieved - keeping Welsh alive. It is easy to find people naturally speaking Welsh - thee are entire towns where it is the main language. You walk into bars and shops - they speak Welsh
When I first arrived in Brittany I asked guides where I could find native speakers. They were all all quite furtive - er, try a market, maybe the islands; dunno
Now I realise that they did not want to disappoint me. But the truth is Breton has vanished
Every time a civilising influence arrived they dispersed into the hills
In that respect the Welsh are very much like the Kogi of Colombia
That's quite an enjoyable article. They should get the writer to write for their sister publication and it might be on the way to becoming readable again
If I ever meet my stalker I shall hand on your appreciation
David Lammy is going to have his hands full from the get-go dealing with the Putin/Ukraine situation. It'll be interesting to see how he does in that role.
It won’t happen, but in Starmer genie terms, it’s possible Keir’s first international appointment could be the Euros final, with England winning against Spain.
I know that’s not directly related to Lammy, but it’s international affairs.
Opinium were almost bang on in 2019 but have changed their methodology since.
I will stick with Labour on about 40%.
Sunak's strategy actually had some sense in it but he simply wasn't able to execute.
It was clearly to wrongfoot and cripple Reform, and then go for Labour on tax. And you can see that playing out in what CCHQ has done.
Almost could have worked. Had he got it right the Tories could have been up at 32-33% and Labour at 37-38% and a hung parliament.
Which would have been pretty much spot on my call when the election was announced.
But I could be forgiven for thinking that no PM would be dumb enough to leave D-Day early when making my calculation.
Or having staff vote on the date of the election when they knew it.
And then to treat Farage with a velvet glove - rather than smashing him in the face with a mailed fist.
The only person who can have taken any grim satisfaction at the shite nature of the campaign is Theresa May. No longer the holder of the sobriquet of "Runner of the Worst Ever Election Camapign. Ever."
You think CON are done for?
I think they will get a gubbing on Thursday.
But talk of the death of the most successful political party of the past couple of decades is seriously overdone. And will probably appear comical within the year.
Past couple of centuries surely?
Fallacy in there, however. Do you also treat rumours of the recent death of our longest reigning and best loved monarch with a pinch of salt?
I can’t see post election how a Tory Reform merger could come about without a big internal drama.
I’d expect the Tory party to split with MPs from the more centre of the party either resigning the whip or joining the Lib Dems.
Indeed. Especially after Farage's Putinism, and the racism expose.
I imagine you'd see a good few Con MPs defecting to the Lib Dems, or starting their own Change UK. So after a merger, you would probably have less Con MPs than you would before, unless Reform do really, really well.
Same for local councillors and activists at a grass roots level. On another day, I'd be happy to campaign for a pro-business, socially liberally inclined Conservative party that's a big tent. I wouldn't be caught dead sharing a tent with Farage and his basket of deplorables.
It may well be that Faragist populism is the future of the right wing, but you can count me out of it, and I suspect a lot of other liberal right wingers too.
Coming to Brittany you realise what a feat the Welsh have achieved - keeping Welsh alive. It is easy to find people naturally speaking Welsh - thee are entire towns where it is the main language. You walk into bars and shops - they speak Welsh
When I first arrived in Brittany I asked guides where I could find native speakers. They were all all quite furtive - er, try a market, maybe the islands; dunno
Now I realise that they did not want to disappoint me. But the truth is Breton has vanished
Every time a civilising influence arrived they dispersed into the hills
In that respect the Welsh are very much like the Kogi of Colombia
That's quite an enjoyable article. They should get the writer to write for their sister publication and it might be on the way to becoming readable again
If I ever meet my stalker I shall hand on your appreciation
I briefly had a stalker last year. It was unnerving.
Professor Anthony Seldon: Hard to think of a period of Tory domination that has achieved less
Sir Anthony Seldon is our next guest on Politics Hub With Ali Fortescue. He has penned a new book entitled '2010-2014: 14 wasted years?', and we ask for his reflections on the Tory years in power. He says there were some good things, such as in education where standards rose, "aspects of pensions, aspects of science, aspects of the arts, Universal Credit". But he goes on: "Overall, growth and productivity has been stagnant since the global financial crisis of 2007-8, and if we look at health, if we look at transport, if we look at housing, if we look at the state of defence, if we look at Britain's position in the world - we don't see the different historians and academics who wrote the book... there isn't the kind of significant change in the standard of all those various areas and other that we have tended to see in long periods of Tory government in the past." He says there have been "some progressive, important, and incremental changes, but overall a disappointing performance, frankly". "It's hard to think of any period of single-party domination by the Conservative Party that has achieved less than the party's achieved since 2010." Infighting has been partly to blame, and it is also a party that is "unsure what it believes in" and is "confused", Sir Anthony says. He also says "the flip flop" of policies and ideological direction has been a problem. "There were so many opportunities that the Conservative government could have had for consistent and thoughtful policymaking, and it simply hasn't happened."
Opinium were almost bang on in 2019 but have changed their methodology since.
I will stick with Labour on about 40%.
Sunak's strategy actually had some sense in it but he simply wasn't able to execute.
It was clearly to wrongfoot and cripple Reform, and then go for Labour on tax. And you can see that playing out in what CCHQ has done.
Almost could have worked. Had he got it right the Tories could have been up at 32-33% and Labour at 37-38% and a hung parliament.
Which would have been pretty much spot on my call when the election was announced.
But I could be forgiven for thinking that no PM would be dumb enough to leave D-Day early when making my calculation.
Or having staff vote on the date of the election when they knew it.
And then to treat Farage with a velvet glove - rather than smashing him in the face with a mailed fist.
The only person who can have taken any grim satisfaction at the shite nature of the campaign is Theresa May. No longer the holder of the sobriquet of "Runner of the Worst Ever Election Camapign. Ever."
You think CON are done for?
I think they will get a gubbing on Thursday.
But talk of the death of the most successful political party of the past couple of decades is seriously overdone. And will probably appear comical within the year.
Comments
Labour is on 40% (unchanged compared with a week ago), while the Conservatives are on 20% (also unchanged). Reform UK is up 1 point on 17%, the Liberal Democrats up 1 point on 13% and the Greens down 3 points on 6%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/29/starmers-promise-to-voters-i-will-relight-the-fire-of-optimism-in-britain
It may mean his post election scores are weaker than he would like, but there's also opportunity if he can do a decent job to reassure people.
The blue team are a huge disappointment after their victory last time out.
The same can be said about the football.
Porca miseria.
The Swiss playing like that will run rings round England, if we make it that far.
If the Conservative Party, whose reputation for probity, competence and economic prudence has been completely trashed already, goes flying off to the Hard Right in pursuit of the purple-faced Reform defectors, then it's going to leave a vacancy for a centre-right party to completely take over the support of aspirational voters.
Long Dong SilverThe Subtle One.Very common indeed.
Nothing will ever beat getting knocked out in 2003 because they couldn't read the Duckworth Lewis scoresheet properly.
Perhaps Ed Davey needs to do a PR stunt involving juggling?
Personally, having watched him win pretty much full sets of straight As through his school years and a large succession of prizes plus school captain, whilst also doing all the stuff at home that we have found out of which I did not know the detail, I wouldn't suggest at this point that it is beyond his abilities.
It's probably about how good his actual political skills are as party leader with a decent population of MPs, which I think needs skills I have not seen him have to show before.
I think the single most important adviser / strategist may well be Mark Pack, though others here may know other names.
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (25-27 June 2024)
Con: 20% (+2 from 24-25 June)
Lab: 37% (+1)
Reform UK: 17% (=)
Lib Dem: 13% (-2)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Labour look like coming in a little shy of 40, Tories low 20s unless Reform fizzle
Yay. Little victories....
https://liberalengland.blogspot.com/
"Who knew they were French?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yz5rx2lHNE
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
·
6h
Publicly at least, Democrats have sunk into their own sea of unreality in the last 24 hours, as deep as some Republicans'. The idea that that was just an off-beat debate performance (a la Obama's first in 2012, or even Reagan's first in 84) is risible.
https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/1807010250521714977
LAB 40
CON 20
REF 17
LIB DEM 13
GREEN 3
Opinium Baxtered
LAB 466
LIB DEM 76
CON 57
REF 7
GREEN 3
SNP 18
No tactical voting settings applied
Who talks about what.
In the case of Russia, we bent over backwards to help them in the 1990s - yet the claims of many pro-Russian shills is that we 'rubbed their noses' in their defeat and didn't really help them. IMV we should have been stronger after the Georgia invasion in 2008, let alone 2014 or Salisbury.
But China? Perhaps - and I say this with my fingers very crossed - our economies are so intertwined that Xi realises that a war might cripple his country. But I fear people like Xi and Putin value their place in history more highly than the short- or medium-term health of their economy or people.
And this leads to another potential giant: India. A country that has the resources and people to be a superpower - sometimes (from my view) despite itself. We have a complex relationship with China, to put it mildly, but what can we do to find a future that's good for both us and them?
Starmer seems to be promising a more efficient version of the Tories.
I will stick with Labour on about 40%.
Kevin Schofield
@KevinASchofield
·
59m
Exclusive: The Tories' warning of a Labour "supermajority" has backfired, a new poll has revealed.
26% of voters say it makes them more likely to vote for Keir Starmer's party, compared to just 13% who will now back the Conservatives.
Labour down 4%
To show just how much Reform are shitting the bed: combine them with the Conservatives and they now *match* Labour.
It was clearly to wrongfoot and cripple Reform, and then go for Labour on tax. And you can see that playing out in what CCHQ has done.
Almost could have worked. Had he got it right the Tories could have been up at 32-33% and Labour at 37-38% and a hung parliament.
Problem for the Tories is the vast majority of postal votes are in which is likely to make up approx 20% of all valid votes cast.
Opinium is a pretty good poll for Labour given its past history as it was one of the friendlier ones for the Tories .
I mean Lab + Lib Dem + Green is 57%
Just pointless and yet more self-delusion from the Party which utterly blew it during the last 5 years.
So I chose a town basically at random. I saw a flat for one night - very cheap. An hour away. In a town I’ve never heard of. I saw a photo of a river. Seemed ok
Cheapness of apartment - £60 for 1 night for a whole apartment - would normally indicate a bit of a dump
It is not a dump. The centre is stunning. No really. I’m sitting on an inhabited bridge - its houses and bars stand over a rushing river. There are streets of 19th century beauty and streets of 15-17th century charm
There is evidence of economic distress - a few closed shops. This is not a posh town. It’s quite rough - a double g&t in this over-the-river bar is €8. Everyone is smoking and shouting
But wow. Landerneau. Who knew? Not I
https://www.brittanytourism.com/destinations/the-10-destinations/brest-terres-oceanes/landerneau/
In the garden of an ex-colleague
He was a twat even then
But I could be forgiven for thinking that no PM would be dumb enough to leave D-Day early when making my calculation.
Or having staff vote on the date of the election when they knew it.
And then to treat Farage with a velvet glove - rather than smashing him in the face with a mailed fist.
The only person who can have taken any grim satisfaction at the shite nature of the campaign is Theresa May. No longer the holder of the sobriquet of "Runner of the Worst Ever Election Camapign. Ever."
But talk of the death of the most successful political party of the past couple of decades is seriously overdone. And will probably appear comical within the year.
In fact, the badness of the campaign is partially a function of people just not wanting to listen. The bad stuff has been accentuated because people WANT them to be having a bad campaign. Any good stuff has been underplayed.
Simply, the world isn't listening. And won't until you go away for a few years. There's a route back and that is to stop being like you've been the past five years. My strong recommendation is take a leaf out of Starmer's book and purge the margins. Fight from the centre.
This poll is LLG 57, RefCon 37. That’s precisely in line with bloc totals over the last several months. The bloc is 20% ahead.
A CCHQ agitpropper.
A kremlin troll.
The Kitchen Cabinet.
Mister Ed.
Out of interest, who were Mr Ed and the kitchen cabinet? I don't remember them being around when I stopped posting in 2016?
I’d expect the Tory party to split with MPs from the more centre of the party either resigning the whip or joining the Lib Dems.
I know that’s not directly related to Lammy, but it’s international affairs.
Fallacy in there, however. Do you also treat rumours of the recent death of our longest reigning and best loved monarch with a pinch of salt?
The polls haven't budged. People made up their minds long ago.
I imagine you'd see a good few Con MPs defecting to the Lib Dems, or starting their own Change UK. So after a merger, you would probably have less Con MPs than you would before, unless Reform do really, really well.
Same for local councillors and activists at a grass roots level. On another day, I'd be happy to campaign for a pro-business, socially liberally inclined Conservative party that's a big tent. I wouldn't be caught dead sharing a tent with Farage and his basket of deplorables.
It may well be that Faragist populism is the future of the right wing, but you can count me out of it, and I suspect a lot of other liberal right wingers too.
Sir Anthony Seldon is our next guest on Politics Hub With Ali Fortescue.
He has penned a new book entitled '2010-2014: 14 wasted years?', and we ask for his reflections on the Tory years in power.
He says there were some good things, such as in education where standards rose, "aspects of pensions, aspects of science, aspects of the arts, Universal Credit".
But he goes on: "Overall, growth and productivity has been stagnant since the global financial crisis of 2007-8, and if we look at health, if we look at transport, if we look at housing, if we look at the state of defence, if we look at Britain's position in the world - we don't see the different historians and academics who wrote the book... there isn't the kind of significant change in the standard of all those various areas and other that we have tended to see in long periods of Tory government in the past."
He says there have been "some progressive, important, and incremental changes, but overall a disappointing performance, frankly".
"It's hard to think of any period of single-party domination by the Conservative Party that has achieved less than the party's achieved since 2010."
Infighting has been partly to blame, and it is also a party that is "unsure what it believes in" and is "confused", Sir Anthony says.
He also says "the flip flop" of policies and ideological direction has been a problem.
"There were so many opportunities that the Conservative government could have had for consistent and thoughtful policymaking, and it simply hasn't happened."
https://news.sky.com/story/election-2024-poll-sunak-starmer-debate-conservatives-labour-reform-lib-dem-12593360?postid=7893085#liveblog-body