Coming to Brittany you realise what a feat the Welsh have achieved - keeping Welsh alive. It is easy to find people naturally speaking Welsh - thee are entire towns where it is the main language. You walk into bars and shops - they speak Welsh
When I first arrived in Brittany I asked guides where I could find native speakers. They were all all quite furtive - er, try a market, maybe the islands; dunno
Now I realise that they did not want to disappoint me. But the truth is Breton has vanished
Language themed empire building is what the French do. Breton is probably as dead as Cornish and they are lying about it with a long term plan of making it an official language of the EU.
I am having a French themed travel year - Polynésie. Bretagne. Algérie.
They try and keep Jersey Norman French going, teaching it in schools here but it’s more a novelty than a living language. The oldies who are from generations of islanders still speak it to each other, an ex’s stepfather used to speak to his brothers and parents in it, sounds like South Africans speaking bad French.
I always chuckle thinking that when French tourists come here and they see all the signs etc in Jersey Norman French that they must think some tosser has tried to write in French and got it wrong as it has many differences that are clearer when seen written than spoken.
You’ve travelled in Brittany a lot. Have you ever heard Breton spoken in a natural setting? Eg casually between people in shops or markets or bars etc?
Not that I remember however I’m usually only sober for an hour at the beginning and an hour at the end of my visits. I think if you go inland you have a better chance of hearing it amongst the farmers but the coasts attract tourists and workers from elsewhere so it flushed out Breton.
We had lots of Bretons come here pre about 1970 to work on the farms before the Madeirans took their place and I’ve heard that there was absolute mutual lack of understanding between them and the Jèrriais speakers despite growing up across about 20 miles of sea.
That’s what quora is telling me. Maybe a few old farmers deep inland but even there you’ve got to be really lucky
So it is essentially dead
Are you going to get to La Baule before you leave? Definitely worth it whilst down there.
Jeez gimme a break. I’ve been everywhere! I’m quite knackered now. Six islands in seven days. And now I’ve got drive to st malo - eeek
And look how the terminally stupid have fallen for Farage's bullshit.
I feel fairly sure we don't know the whole story of the racist actor thing. Nothing about it rings true or makes entire sense. Could a fresh set of insights about this be a big story this week?
5 more sleeps and somewhere between 4 and 7 days till the election.
FIVE DAYS TO SAVE THE TORY PARTY!!!
No need - Tory is a nickname, it can be repurposed to the new Conservative Reform Party.
Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
Good. The party leader has to be the person the MPs think is best to lead them in Parliament. The membership should have nothing to do with it.
The problem is the leadership increasingly choose candidates…
Which then choose leaders…
Parliamentary parties are turning into an exclusive private members clubs that vote amongst themselves who runs the country with little concern about the members or public
Then people wonder why voters are going third party !!
When I joined the Tory party members didn't get the vote, I am fine to having no vote on the leader.
I'm no longer a Tory member, but the choice of leader is clearly best left to the MPs, and I don't mind if the Lords are involved too.
I think this is true for Labour too.
Personally, I think MPs should consult their membership by whatever means they personally feel is appropriate and then vote according to their conscience for the person who commands their confidence in the house.
Changing government party leader and hence PM is also fine by me.
Essentially I worry about us moving away from representative democracy towards more "direct democracy" which I fear leans towards populism.
Actually the change of leader whilst in office is far better if it is just MPs/Lords that get to vote. The ridiculous situation where just Tory party members got to choose a PM is one to move away from.
The problem was entirely on the MPs, selecting two names and then refusing to back the winner.
If you don’t want someone to be leader, then don’t nominate them in the first place.
The problem was the pool of names they had to choose from
If you don't want only duds, don't select a vindictive clown as leader...
Yes, the lack of Anna Soubry was a blow they never really recovered from.
Just imagine if Truss had left the party rather than Soubry... the country would be in a *much* better state...
The great failure of the Conservative Party in the post 2016 era, is that they have managed to drive out both Anderson (and his ilk) and Soubry (and hers), leaving them with the support of - checks - homeowning pensioners.
Anderson sort of drove himself out. He's a very odd character. I rather like him, but he's not a party man.
Soubry had the worlds biggest strop over Brexit. Once she starts dealing with whatever issues that caused her to be so childish then I'd happily, once again, listen to what she has to say.
I think the most disappointing loss was Rory Stewart. He can be great, but often a mixed bag, and sometimes Boris-like in terms of self-opinion. Nonetheless I thought he was an important voice in the party, and he seems the biggest loss.
Rory shows the dangers Labour will face with the expected influx of people with lots of experience running things, forced to play second fiddle to ministers with more political experience.
Watergate reporter and long-time Washington Post associate editor Bob Woodward said President Biden’s debate performance was a “political hydrogen bomb” and the public deserves to know what really happened.
Woodward joined MSNBC’s Air Melber on Friday following the debate, where he said the performance was “so bad, so awful” that reporters must be looking for some explanation from his staff.
Given I want Britain to be dissolved through Scottish Independence and the reunification of Ireland it would be daft for me to describe myself as British.
But I also think English as a race concept is equally daft given what a mongrel people we are. We are the Heinz 57 variety of humanity and all the better for it. English to me is a cultural thing, accepting certain basic ideals even if we generally fail to achieve them as a nation. That is why some of the most English people I ever met were not white, not Christian and, in some cases, not even born here.
I can't think what NF's end game is refusing a Laura K interview until the Beeb apologises for the QT audience. I don't think they will, therefore I don't think he'll do the interview, therefore Reform will miss out, which is bad. Each time Farage appears I think it's good for the party - I think even the rough ride he got on QT will help him. So I'm not sure why he's not leaving the bitter recriminations to after the election. Perhaps he's just knackered.
There is a conspiracy theorist angle on the whole QT audience thing - let's say the C4 racism expose was considered completely legitimate, no hint of a set up. Then, the QT appearance before a stony, baleful audience becomes like a media execution - a TV 'moment' where 'The British public angrily rejects racism'. The audience is packed with people who hate Reform just to make the window dressing perfect with no chance of NF winning them round. But beforehand, it all goes a bit to shit with the acting revelations. Now the expose is called into question, and the whole QT execution format doesn't really work any more. It goes ahead as planned, nothing else can possibly be done, but Bruce's questioning now appears partisan and aggressive, and the stony silence from the audience now looks a bit suspicious given that 'people who support Reform' are meant to make up a quotient.
I am still not sure what trying to hold the Beeb to ransome will do - Reform has no ground game, so NF really needs to be everywhere.
The most straightforward answer is perhaps correct. The QT audience is representative of the nation, can see through Farage's grift and lies and called him out on it.
Given that we spend hours here poring over the GE polling, I'm really not sure how to respond to such an astonishingly asinine answer. By all means re-engage in more honest terms if you'd like to have a genuine discussion.
If 15% of people are going to vote Reform, that means 85% of any representative audience will oppose them. And as Farage is a controversial and divisive figure, they are probably more likely to be hostile
I can't think what NF's end game is refusing a Laura K interview until the Beeb apologises for the QT audience. I don't think they will, therefore I don't think he'll do the interview, therefore Reform will miss out, which is bad. Each time Farage appears I think it's good for the party - I think even the rough ride he got on QT will help him. So I'm not sure why he's not leaving the bitter recriminations to after the election. Perhaps he's just knackered.
There is a conspiracy theorist angle on the whole QT audience thing - let's say the C4 racism expose was considered completely legitimate, no hint of a set up. Then, the QT appearance before a stony, baleful audience becomes like a media execution - a TV 'moment' where 'The British public angrily rejects racism'. The audience is packed with people who hate Reform just to make the window dressing perfect with no chance of NF winning them round. But beforehand, it all goes a bit to shit with the acting revelations. Now the expose is called into question, and the whole QT execution format doesn't really work any more. It goes ahead as planned, nothing else can possibly be done, but Bruce's questioning now appears partisan and aggressive, and the stony silence from the audience now looks a bit suspicious given that 'people who support Reform' are meant to make up a quotient.
I am still not sure what trying to hold the Beeb to ransome will do - Reform has no ground game, so NF really needs to be everywhere.
So what is left is a fear that LK's questions will do him no favours - hence he doesn't want to do the show and needs an excuse to justify not doing it.
Farage is now under the media spotlight over Russia Today, where the media have previously given him a free ride. He is retreating to the MAGA "biased media" drivel, but for the first time in years, his free pass has been revoked. He will come under considerable scrutiny after the GE, especially if he is an MP. The scrutiny is unlikely to do him any favours, and with the Lib Dems seemingly back in the game, he will face new competition for air time to be heard at all. Trump is equally loathed, so his closeness to the Donald is also not exactly a plus.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
The problem was entirely on the MPs, selecting two names and then refusing to back the winner.
If you don’t want someone to be leader, then don’t nominate them in the first place.
The problem was the pool of names they had to choose from
If you don't want only duds, don't select a vindictive clown as leader...
Yes, the lack of Anna Soubry was a blow they never really recovered from.
Just imagine if Truss had left the party rather than Soubry... the country would be in a *much* better state...
The great failure of the Conservative Party in the post 2016 era, is that they have managed to drive out both Anderson (and his ilk) and Soubry (and hers), leaving them with the support of - checks - homeowning pensioners.
Anderson sort of drove himself out. He's a very odd character. I rather like him, but he's not a party man.
Soubry had the worlds biggest strop over Brexit. Once she starts dealing with whatever issues that caused her to be so childish then I'd happily, once again, listen to what she has to say.
I think the most disappointing loss was Rory Stewart. He can be great, but often a mixed bag, and sometimes Boris-like in terms of self-opinion. Nonetheless I thought he was an important voice in the party, and he seems the biggest loss.
Rory shows the dangers Labour will face with the expected influx of people with lots of experience running things, forced to play second fiddle to ministers with more political experience.
I don't think over-experience is likely to be an issue for Labour. Are there really Labour candidates that can show any prior evidence of ability? I really haven't ever bothered looking, because they are generally hopeless. I do quite like the bravado of the Labour candidate in Clacton though.
Second leaflet of the campaign has been shoved through the letterbox and this is from Workers Party GB (prop George Galloway). Palestinian and Union flags. Some of it is hard to read because of the coloured background. Parts of it are impossible to read for the same reason.
Electronic voting is a totally mad idea, and those most against it are those of us who work in technological fields and who actually understand the process.
Electronic voting is a totally mad idea, and those most against it are those of us who work in technological fields and who actually understand the process.
But everybody remember to take your own pen on Thursday, don't let MI5 change your vote by using the dodgy pencils ;-)
Electronic voting is a totally mad idea, and those most against it are those of us who work in technological fields and who actually understand the process.
William the Conqueror was a fat sadist who was hated by everyone
Not William himself, but that does put me in mind of a quote I read of a Norman lord from around that time, in the postscript of a novel set in the period, describing one of the historical characters.
The most powerful and the most most dangerous of the Norman baronage, he was also the most repellant in character. In a society of ruffianly, bloodthirsty men, Robert de Belleme stands out as particularly atrocious; an evil, treacherous man with an insatiable ambition and a love of cruelty for cruelty's sake; a medieval sadist, whose ingenious barbarities were proverbal among the people of that time.
Sounds like a real go getter, I think a descendant might be standing for Reform somewhere in East Anglia.
Wait till you hear about his mother Mabel de Belleme!
Second leaflet of the campaign has been shoved through the letterbox and this is from Workers Party GB (prop George Galloway). Palestinian and Union flags. Some of it is hard to read because of the coloured background. Parts of it are impossible to read for the same reason.
Have had one leaflet from Con, Lib, Ref and Green. Two from Lab.
Oh what a pity - it seems that Nigel now thinks more TV is going to cost him votes...
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage I have just been invited to appear on Laura Kuenssberg.
I’m refusing until the BBC apologises for their dishonest QT audience.
Our state broadcaster has behaved like a political actor throughout this election.
Reform will be campaigning vigorously to abolish the license fee.
Does Frogface ever stop whining. Snowflake.
He's pathetic. Really, really don't see the attraction, never did. Back in the days of Brexit he was sidelined by Cummings who, despite some evidence to the contrary, is not stupid.
Electronic voting is a totally mad idea, and those most against it are those of us who work in technological fields and who actually understand the process.
Election results, courtesy of Fujitsu….
If that was the case we would probably end up with Count BinFace getting a suprise win with 105% of the vote
Electronic voting is a totally mad idea, and those most against it are those of us who work in technological fields and who actually understand the process.
I'm not so sure - the idea of Fujitsu running an election has a certain something to it - in a Black Mirror type of show..
Worrying although there has been no direct threat. The Jewish groups fear they might be swept up in action against firms that "support" (in some way or other) Israel.
Electronic voting is a totally mad idea, and those most against it are those of us who work in technological fields and who actually understand the process.
Election results, courtesy of Fujitsu….
If that was the case we would probably end up with Count BinFace getting a suprise win with 105% of the vote
I was thinking more Count Binface wins Ribble Valley even though he didn't stand there..
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
I'd like to know why you dislike them?
'Benefit so grandly'? How do you work that out. This time they might, just might just about get close to a proportion of the vote. Otherwise they have always been miles off.
You think the campaigner in Clacton was a real Reform member? I don't believe he was.
I'd be almost certain he was. What he wasn't was an employed actor playing a part for money which is what Farage wants people to believe. If he had any sense this could have been closed down in an hour. 'Every Party has them. We didn't have time to vet him etc' As it is its now got legs and is leading every news bulletin and losing him votes big time..
Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
Good. The party leader has to be the person the MPs think is best to lead them in Parliament. The membership should have nothing to do with it.
The problem is the leadership increasingly choose candidates…
Which then choose leaders…
Parliamentary parties are turning into an exclusive private members clubs that vote amongst themselves who runs the country with little concern about the members or public
Then people wonder why voters are going third party !!
When I joined the Tory party members didn't get the vote, I am fine to having no vote on the leader.
I'm no longer a Tory member, but the choice of leader is clearly best left to the MPs, and I don't mind if the Lords are involved too.
I think this is true for Labour too.
Personally, I think MPs should consult their membership by whatever means they personally feel is appropriate and then vote according to their conscience for the person who commands their confidence in the house.
Changing government party leader and hence PM is also fine by me.
Essentially I worry about us moving away from representative democracy towards more "direct democracy" which I fear leans towards populism.
Actually the change of leader whilst in office is far better if it is just MPs/Lords that get to vote. The ridiculous situation where just Tory party members got to choose a PM is one to move away from.
That's exactly what I mean. The MP would be wise to take soundings from their members (and whoever else they deem appropriate) but it is up to them.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
I'd like to know why you dislike them?
'Benefit so grandly'? How do you work that out. This time they might, just might just about get close to a proportion of the vote. Otherwise they have always been miles off.
What do you think their vote share would be under PR?
Electronic voting is a totally mad idea, and those most against it are those of us who work in technological fields and who actually understand the process.
It might be OK if it was implemented with the quality of the system in the Baltics - which has withstood repeated Russia attacks for decades now.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
I dislike this left/right linear measure. It really isn't appropriate. As an Orange book liberal I consider myself to be to the right of the Tories on many issues of freedom of choice and government interference.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
I get that. Trying to crystalise that they just seem to be too much status quo. Generally nice (giving them multiple points on Reform), sensible (plus points on the current Tories) and more focused on things that actually matter (many plus points on Labour pre Starmer, fewer since), they should appeal to me but, ( @RochdalePioneers apart, of course) its just a bit meh. If the Tories take on Farage I am out and looking for a new home and it is likely to be them but its just kinda boring.
Electronic voting is a totally mad idea, and those most against it are those of us who work in technological fields and who actually understand the process.
Election results, courtesy of Fujitsu….
Well quite. Thankfully there’s a rather high-profile inquiry going on right now about the fallibility of computers.
So the average Joe now understands that software can have bugs in it, and shouldn’t be blindly trusted.
In support of Sandpit's point on electronic voting: Even if the technical problems were solved, I see no way that almost everyone in the public could be persuaded that the results were trustworthy. Especially in the US.
Electronic voting is a totally mad idea, and those most against it are those of us who work in technological fields and who actually understand the process.
Election results, courtesy of Fujitsu….
Well quite. Thankfully there’s a rather high-profile inquiry going on right now about the fallibility of computers.
So the average Joe now understands that software can have bugs in it, and shouldn’t be blindly trusted.
'Computer says no' mentality should have warned people of that decades ago.
Anyone who has ever worked in the field knows all too well the risks.
Second leaflet of the campaign has been shoved through the letterbox and this is from Workers Party GB (prop George Galloway). Palestinian and Union flags. Some of it is hard to read because of the coloured background. Parts of it are impossible to read for the same reason.
We've had THREE from Leanne Mohamad (Pro-Gaza Ind), THREE from Wes Streeting, TWO from Reform, and one each from the Tories and LibDems.
Electronic voting is a totally mad idea, and those most against it are those of us who work in technological fields and who actually understand the process.
Electronic voting is a totally mad idea, and those most against it are those of us who work in technological fields and who actually understand the process.
It seems to me there are just two traits which matter when it comes to being English.
- A fondness for drinking tea - A delight in annoying the French and Scots at any and all opportunities.
I see nothing wrong in either of these things, indeed it's clearly the premier mark of civilisation. So I rather disagree with the header!
English nationalism is generally awful. It feels very contrived. I'm far more likely to think of myself as British than English, although I'm obviously both.
The problem with English nationalism is that English culture, or something very similar, is the default way of doing business around large chunks of the developed world. The English language and the (English) business suit, most obviously.
So an English nationalism doesn't have much to work with. England's success means it isn't distinctive.
It’s the same reason MAGA American nationalism is self defeating.
Some identities are expansionist and proselytising, just like some religions (Islam and Christianity). Others are insular and rooted in geography or ethnicity, like Judaism and most Hinduism.
Ringfencing English or American culture is like Islam deciding it should only be practised by people living in the Arabian peninsula.
A major feature is “over doing it”. The James Bond quip (in the book) about how Goldfinger dressed for golf is spot on.
I remain British by birth, but English by the grace of God, as the saying goes.
UK by birth, or at least passport, surely ...
Doesn't the passport say British citizen?
NI.
Edit: it does say 'British citizen' but this is absurd as the main texts say United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. And no way is NI part of Britain.
Actually Britain has long been synonymous with UK. You are thinking of Great Britain (putting Olympics to one side).
Britain is bigger than Great Britain?
I am three parts England one part Isle of Skye. I say English because I wouldn't, ahem, want to be accused of falsely claiming the honour of having Welsh or NI blood and anyway foreigners are only interested in the language and the PL which are both genuinely English not British. UK filling in forms as it saves 5 letters.
Yes. Mind you, it is not so long ago that England was used for the whole place. You can see Britain, England and UK used more or less interchangeably in old films or abroad even now.
Labour's switch of messaging towards "If you want change, you have to vote for it" seems to have been very well executed - though I expect we're going to get quite sick of the phrase between now and Thursday...
Should we be expecting a similar final-week shift from the Tories, or will they be sticking to the supermajority line?
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
I'd like to know why you dislike them?
'Benefit so grandly'? How do you work that out. This time they might, just might just about get close to a proportion of the vote. Otherwise they have always been miles off.
I've no idea why I quite dislike the current LDs as much as I do. I think it's that they are not the LDs of old, or even the Liberals of old.
To give you an insight as to my politics I'd have loved to be able to place a 'coaltion' bet in 2015.
Where they are now the LDs just offer a bad alternative to Labour. Economically they're incoherent, and they have precisely zero to say about 'rights' - I don't believe in 'rights' but its a useful label.
I guess I see myself as a Liberal, albeit on the very hard economic right, but there simply isn't a voting choice there.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
I dislike this left/right linear measure. It really isn't appropriate. As an Orange book liberal I consider myself to be to the right of the Tories on many issues of freedom of choice and government interference.
But the Lib Dems are clearly to the left and the way they behaved in coalition proved it. They completely disowned what they had been a part of.
Labour's switch of messaging towards "If you want change, you have to vote for it" seems to have been very well executed - though I expect we're going to get quite sick of the phrase between now and Thursday...
Should we be expecting a similar final-week shift from the Tories, or will they be sticking to the supermajority line?
If you want 5 years more of the same Vote Tory really isn't an incentive
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
I'd like to know why you dislike them?
'Benefit so grandly'? How do you work that out. This time they might, just might just about get close to a proportion of the vote. Otherwise they have always been miles off.
What do you think their vote share would be under PR?
I don't think that question is answerable because with PR the current make up of parties would change. Labour would break into a Socialist party and Social Democratic party, the LDs would lose their Social Democratic members to the new Social Democratic party leaving a small core of Liberals. The Tories would similar break into a centre right one nation party and a right wing party.
I would be a member of the small liberal party.
In the past that question was easy to answer. In the days of the Alliance, they would have won a landslide as many polls of the time confirmed. It was a question often asked in polls at the time.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
I'd like to know why you dislike them?
'Benefit so grandly'? How do you work that out. This time they might, just might just about get close to a proportion of the vote. Otherwise they have always been miles off.
What do you think their vote share would be under PR?
I don't think that question is answerable because with PR the current make up of parties would change. Labour would break into a Socialist party and Social Democratic party, the LDs would lose their Social Democratic members to the new Social Democratic party leaving a small core of Liberals. The Tories would similar break into a centre right one nation party and a right wing party.
I would be a member of the small liberal party.
In the past that question was easy to answer. In the days of the Alliance, they would have won a landslide as many polls of the time confirmed. It was a question often asked in polls at the time.
Depends on how the new voting system - if we shift to secondary votes that would confirm the current 2 party state in most constituencies..
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
I'd like to know why you dislike them?
'Benefit so grandly'? How do you work that out. This time they might, just might just about get close to a proportion of the vote. Otherwise they have always been miles off.
I've no idea why I quite dislike the current LDs as much as I do. I think it's that they are not the LDs of old, or even the Liberals of old.
To give you an insight as to my politics I'd have loved to be able to place a 'coaltion' bet in 2015.
Where they are now the LDs just offer a bad alternative to Labour. Economically they're incoherent, and they have precisely zero to say about 'rights' - I don't believe in 'rights' but its a useful label.
I guess I see myself as a Liberal, albeit on the very hard economic right, but there simply isn't a voting choice there.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
That poll from Northern Ireland is quite interesting. You have to go back a long way to find Alliance/SDLP/UUP polling as high as 45% between them, or Sinn Fein/DUP/TUV polling under 50%.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
I'd like to know why you dislike them?
'Benefit so grandly'? How do you work that out. This time they might, just might just about get close to a proportion of the vote. Otherwise they have always been miles off.
I've long had a theory their proportion of the vote is (typically) greatly inflated by being the repository of "other" votes. Though not so much post-Coalition.
I've got a theory that in 2015 when the Lib Dems collapsed a big percentage of the rise of UKIP came directly from Lib Dems as the party of "other" switched.
Can't prove it, but its what I suspect.
If we had PR, then the voting will change, so applying PR to a FPTP result and saying "this is what it should be" doesn't work.
Behind the scenes: If Biden stays in, it's for the same reason he decided to run again: He and the oligarchy believe he has a much better chance of beating former President Trump than Vice President Harris does.
Biden allies have played out the scenarios and see little chance of anyone besides Harris winning the nomination if he stepped aside.
And look how the terminally stupid have fallen for Farage's bullshit.
I feel fairly sure we don't know the whole story of the racist actor thing. Nothing about it rings true or makes entire sense. Could a fresh set of insights about this be a big story this week?
5 more sleeps and somewhere between 4 and 7 days till the election.
FIVE DAYS TO SAVE THE TORY PARTY!!!
No need - Tory is a nickname, it can be repurposed to the new Conservative Reform Party.
Conservative Reform Alliance Party will have a ready made nickname
Forced to hire a taxi this morning to get to Cambridge on time for an appointment. All the fault of the local train company. I bloody hate trains.
Journey through South Cambs bypasses some of the villages, but where we did pass houses nearly all the election paraphernalia consisted of Lib Dem diamonds, and there was one Green. Hardly a surprise - they're almost bound to win the seat - but just thought I'd mention.
Anyway, someone may have posted this already, but never mind:
In the final stretch of the campaign before the big day on July 4, there is huge scepticism among both Labour and Tory activists about the polls that show Rishi Sunak’s party being almost completely wiped out.
It is not just expectation management. Those on the doorstep report genuinely that there are too many undecided voters, “hard don’t knows” – even at this late stage – for the more dramatic MRPs to be trusted.
On the Labour side, people are naturally worried that the foregone conclusion could affect voter motivation to go to the polls. “It’s a conspiracy to lower turnout,” one Labour candidate seeking re-election said, only half joking.
There is concern, too, that the recent focus on stories revealing how candidates have placed bets on political events will only encourage cynicism. Have the Gambling Commission and police investigations effectively given already apathetic voters permission to switch off entirely?
“Tories are slightly worried about causing more issues so they’re going to be quiet going into the final week,” a Conservative insider said. “It will be very hyper-localised. Let what local candidates do best and knock on as many doors as possible.”
Conservatives are now talking about securing over 100 MPs as “we’ll take that” territory – apparently it is under 100 that is unacceptable, and third place behind the Lib Dems in seats where they will “hit every emergency button you can possibly find”. Current expectations are that they will return 100 to 150 MPs.
The Mayoral and PCC elections gave 41% Labour, 32% Conservative. I think such a result was achievable for the Conservatives, had they not run a campaign which insults the voters.
Comments
Woodward joined MSNBC’s Air Melber on Friday following the debate, where he said the performance was “so bad, so awful” that reporters must be looking for some explanation from his staff.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4747466-woodward-biden-debate-performance/
At the moment I’m thinking vote splits of about 39 LAB/25 CON/14 REF/12 LD.
Tom Scott explains.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkH2r-sNjQs
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/29/jewish-lgbt-charity-pulls-out-pride-in-london-over-safety/
Of course, as far as I am concerned, you can call yourselves whatever you like -- within the bounds of good taste.
- I see @IanB2 beat me to the obvious joke
So I would say BT mixing the results up NHS backbone styleee...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/29/jewish-lgbt-charity-pulls-out-pride-in-london-over-safety/ (£££)
Independent editorial backs Labour
'Benefit so grandly'? How do you work that out. This time they might, just might just about get close to a proportion of the vote. Otherwise they have always been miles off.
Seats?
Lib Dem x10
So the average Joe now understands that software can have bugs in it, and shouldn’t be blindly trusted.
Anyone who has ever worked in the field knows all too well the risks.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/29/derangement-disaffection-sweeping-away-old-democratic-era/
Con: 20% (+2 from 24-25 June)
Lab: 37% (+1)
Reform UK: 17% (=)
Lib Dem: 13% (-2)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1807097090558079221
Should we be expecting a similar final-week shift from the Tories, or will they be sticking to the supermajority line?
To give you an insight as to my politics I'd have loved to be able to place a 'coaltion' bet in 2015.
Where they are now the LDs just offer a bad alternative to Labour. Economically they're incoherent, and they have precisely zero to say about 'rights' - I don't believe in 'rights' but its a useful label.
I guess I see myself as a Liberal, albeit on the very hard economic right, but there simply isn't a voting choice there.
I would be a member of the small liberal party.
In the past that question was easy to answer. In the days of the Alliance, they would have won a landslide as many polls of the time confirmed. It was a question often asked in polls at the time.
https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/biden-trump-debate-poll-june-2024
I feel it in my waters or it might be the meds.
I've got a theory that in 2015 when the Lib Dems collapsed a big percentage of the rise of UKIP came directly from Lib Dems as the party of "other" switched.
Can't prove it, but its what I suspect.
If we had PR, then the voting will change, so applying PR to a FPTP result and saying "this is what it should be" doesn't work.
Biden allies have played out the scenarios and see little chance of anyone besides Harris winning the nomination if he stepped aside.
https://www.axios.com/2024/06/29/biden-debate-replace-advisers
Journey through South Cambs bypasses some of the villages, but where we did pass houses nearly all the election paraphernalia consisted of Lib Dem diamonds, and there was one Green. Hardly a surprise - they're almost bound to win the seat - but just thought I'd mention.
Anyway, someone may have posted this already, but never mind:
In the final stretch of the campaign before the big day on July 4, there is huge scepticism among both Labour and Tory activists about the polls that show Rishi Sunak’s party being almost completely wiped out.
It is not just expectation management. Those on the doorstep report genuinely that there are too many undecided voters, “hard don’t knows” – even at this late stage – for the more dramatic MRPs to be trusted.
On the Labour side, people are naturally worried that the foregone conclusion could affect voter motivation to go to the polls. “It’s a conspiracy to lower turnout,” one Labour candidate seeking re-election said, only half joking.
There is concern, too, that the recent focus on stories revealing how candidates have placed bets on political events will only encourage cynicism. Have the Gambling Commission and police investigations effectively given already apathetic voters permission to switch off entirely?
“Tories are slightly worried about causing more issues so they’re going to be quiet going into the final week,” a Conservative insider said. “It will be very hyper-localised. Let what local candidates do best and knock on as many doors as possible.”
Conservatives are now talking about securing over 100 MPs as “we’ll take that” territory – apparently it is under 100 that is unacceptable, and third place behind the Lib Dems in seats where they will “hit every emergency button you can possibly find”. Current expectations are that they will return 100 to 150 MPs.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/party-activists-strongly-sceptical-polls-predicting-tory-wipeout-july-4-approaches