The only person who can have taken any grim satisfaction at the shite nature of the campaign is Theresa May.
I suspect BoZo is pretty happy about it too
Not sure Bozo will ever be truly happy again. He blew it. And he knows it.
The 2020s looked as if they belonged to him. It's incomprehensible really.
And he blew it so a handful of spotty spads could have a bottle of lukewarm NZ Chardonnay.
It wasn't just that. Fundamentally, he had pretty deep psychological flaws that his rivals (indeed some of his own family) warned about. They came out time and again - he had no ability to control them, and indeed admitted so himself towards the end in a rare moment of candour. He couldn't change the fundamentally dishonest, lazy chancer that he was.
I have decided to test @another_richard’s theory that I’m just seeing the nice side of Brittany
So I chose a town basically at random. I saw a flat for one night - very cheap. An hour away. In a town I’ve never heard of. I saw a photo of a river. Seemed ok
Cheapness of apartment - £60 for 1 night for a whole apartment - would normally indicate a bit of a dump
It is not a dump. The centre is stunning. No really. I’m sitting on an inhabited bridge - its houses and bars stand over a rushing river. There are streets of 19th century beauty and streets of 15-17th century charm
There is evidence of economic distress - a few closed shops. This is not a posh town. It’s quite rough - a double g&t in this over-the-river bar is €8. Everyone is smoking and shouting
Yes, bit of an outlier though if it has the oldest inhabited bridge in Europe. On the Cornwall Cornouaille analogy I would guess Brittany has its Redruths and Callingtons and St Austells.
But where are they? Where are the redruths and Cambornes? I’m trying to find them and AFAICS they don’t exist
It helps that Britanny was never industrialised
I might be revising my opinion that Italy is the most beautiful serious country per square mile and putting previous silver medalists France on the top spot. The proliferation of beautiful towns and landscapes is absolutely confounding
I have decided to test @another_richard’s theory that I’m just seeing the nice side of Brittany
So I chose a town basically at random. I saw a flat for one night - very cheap. An hour away. In a town I’ve never heard of. I saw a photo of a river. Seemed ok
Cheapness of apartment - £60 for 1 night for a whole apartment - would normally indicate a bit of a dump
It is not a dump. The centre is stunning. No really. I’m sitting on an inhabited bridge - its houses and bars stand over a rushing river. There are streets of 19th century beauty and streets of 15-17th century charm
There is evidence of economic distress - a few closed shops. This is not a posh town. It’s quite rough - a double g&t in this over-the-river bar is €8. Everyone is smoking and shouting
Yes, bit of an outlier though if it has the oldest inhabited bridge in Europe. On the Cornwall Cornouaille analogy I would guess Brittany has its Redruths and Callingtons and St Austells.
But where are they? Where are the redruths and Cambornes? I’m trying to find them and AFAICS they don’t exist
It helps that Britanny was never industrialised
I might be revising my opinion that Italy is the most beautiful serious country per square mile and putting previous silver medalists France on the top spot. The proliferation of beautiful towns and landscapes is absolutely confounding
Perhaps Brittany was spared all that mineable stuff
I have decided to test @another_richard’s theory that I’m just seeing the nice side of Brittany
So I chose a town basically at random. I saw a flat for one night - very cheap. An hour away. In a town I’ve never heard of. I saw a photo of a river. Seemed ok
Cheapness of apartment - £60 for 1 night for a whole apartment - would normally indicate a bit of a dump
It is not a dump. The centre is stunning. No really. I’m sitting on an inhabited bridge - its houses and bars stand over a rushing river. There are streets of 19th century beauty and streets of 15-17th century charm
There is evidence of economic distress - a few closed shops. This is not a posh town. It’s quite rough - a double g&t in this over-the-river bar is €8. Everyone is smoking and shouting
Yes, bit of an outlier though if it has the oldest inhabited bridge in Europe. On the Cornwall Cornouaille analogy I would guess Brittany has its Redruths and Callingtons and St Austells.
But where are they? Where are the redruths and Cambornes? I’m trying to find them and AFAICS they don’t exist
It helps that Britanny was never industrialised
I might be revising my opinion that Italy is the most beautiful serious country per square mile and putting previous silver medalists France on the top spot. The proliferation of beautiful towns and landscapes is absolutely confounding
A serious question for you - I'm enjoying your tour of Brittany. Every time you mention a new town, I look it up and scan through the pictures of it. It strikes me that in the town centres, I hardly every see motor cars littering the streets and squares - they all seem to be pretty much pedestrianised. Is my impression accurate, or is it just that the photos just avoid the cars? If so, I wonder if it's a major reason that these towns are such attractive places to sit, eat and drink and watch the world go by? Most English town centres are bedevilled by both moving and parked cars getting in the way.
Coming to Brittany you realise what a feat the Welsh have achieved - keeping Welsh alive. It is easy to find people naturally speaking Welsh - thee are entire towns where it is the main language. You walk into bars and shops - they speak Welsh
When I first arrived in Brittany I asked guides where I could find native speakers. They were all all quite furtive - er, try a market, maybe the islands; dunno
Now I realise that they did not want to disappoint me. But the truth is Breton has vanished
Every time a civilising influence arrived they dispersed into the hills
In that respect the Welsh are very much like the Kogi of Colombia
That's quite an enjoyable article. They should get the writer to write for their sister publication and it might be on the way to becoming readable again
If I ever meet my stalker I shall hand on your appreciation
I briefly had a stalker last year. It was unnerving.
Labour look like coming in a little shy of 40, Tories low 20s unless Reform fizzle
This is a crack suicide squad election.
To show just how much Reform are shitting the bed: combine them with the Conservatives and they now *match* Labour.
But they don’t match LLG. The experimentation with minor parties is happening on both sides.
This poll is LLG 57, RefCon 37. That’s precisely in line with bloc totals over the last several months. The bloc is 20% ahead.
You can't add Liberal Democrats to "the left" that's not how the electorate see them, and, often, not how they present themselves.
You can for the Greens.
On the contrary, you must, because almost every seat they can gain will be from the Conservatives, which isn't true of Reform. Labour and Green people will tactically vote LD to beat the Conservatives. That's what matters when looking at those vote shares. And it explains why LDs finish second on seats while fourth on votes when the more extreme forecasts are Baxtered.
Professor Anthony Seldon: Hard to think of a period of Tory domination that has achieved less
Sir Anthony Seldon is our next guest on Politics Hub With Ali Fortescue. He has penned a new book entitled '2010-2014: 14 wasted years?', and we ask for his reflections on the Tory years in power. He says there were some good things, such as in education where standards rose, "aspects of pensions, aspects of science, aspects of the arts, Universal Credit". But he goes on: "Overall, growth and productivity has been stagnant since the global financial crisis of 2007-8, and if we look at health, if we look at transport, if we look at housing, if we look at the state of defence, if we look at Britain's position in the world - we don't see the different historians and academics who wrote the book... there isn't the kind of significant change in the standard of all those various areas and other that we have tended to see in long periods of Tory government in the past." He says there have been "some progressive, important, and incremental changes, but overall a disappointing performance, frankly". "It's hard to think of any period of single-party domination by the Conservative Party that has achieved less than the party's achieved since 2010." Infighting has been partly to blame, and it is also a party that is "unsure what it believes in" and is "confused", Sir Anthony says. He also says "the flip flop" of policies and ideological direction has been a problem. "There were so many opportunities that the Conservative government could have had for consistent and thoughtful policymaking, and it simply hasn't happened."
Indeed. However, in 14 years of Tory PMs: Years 1-5: no majority - so, the coalition. Arguably quite successful economically in steadying the ship after the 2008 crash - but no real room to do anything particularly Conservative. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing: lets do what there is a majority for. Doing fewer things and doing them well is fine. Years 6-7: a tiny majority, and not much time before: Years 8-9: minority government again and 2 years of parliament dicking about. Years 10-12: Finally, a decent majority - but then the biggest emergency since the war comes along, followed by Ukraine: two years of firefighting. Years 13-14: Finally, after 12 years, the opportunity to do somethubg Conservative - but covid and Ukraine have exhausted state coffers and in any case the party is now exhausted and has used all its political capital.
I would have quite liked the Conservatives to have tried to undo the leftward shift in government and in culture which has happened during the 97-10 years. But parliamentary arithmetic and outside emergencies meant they never really got started.
It certainly hasn't been a golden period of Conservatism, but they have been unusually unlucky.
Coming to Brittany you realise what a feat the Welsh have achieved - keeping Welsh alive. It is easy to find people naturally speaking Welsh - thee are entire towns where it is the main language. You walk into bars and shops - they speak Welsh
When I first arrived in Brittany I asked guides where I could find native speakers. They were all all quite furtive - er, try a market, maybe the islands; dunno
Now I realise that they did not want to disappoint me. But the truth is Breton has vanished
Every time a civilising influence arrived they dispersed into the hills
In that respect the Welsh are very much like the Kogi of Colombia
That's quite an enjoyable article. They should get the writer to write for their sister publication and it might be on the way to becoming readable again
If I ever meet my stalker I shall hand on your appreciation
I briefly had a stalker last year. It was unnerving.
You think I've stopped?
Oh shit.
About to watch the 3rd and 4th episodes of baby Reindeer here.
Opinium were almost bang on in 2019 but have changed their methodology since.
I will stick with Labour on about 40%.
Sunak's strategy actually had some sense in it but he simply wasn't able to execute.
It was clearly to wrongfoot and cripple Reform, and then go for Labour on tax. And you can see that playing out in what CCHQ has done.
Almost could have worked. Had he got it right the Tories could have been up at 32-33% and Labour at 37-38% and a hung parliament.
Which would have been pretty much spot on my call when the election was announced.
But I could be forgiven for thinking that no PM would be dumb enough to leave D-Day early when making my calculation.
Or having staff vote on the date of the election when they knew it.
And then to treat Farage with a velvet glove - rather than smashing him in the face with a mailed fist.
The only person who can have taken any grim satisfaction at the shite nature of the campaign is Theresa May. No longer the holder of the sobriquet of "Runner of the Worst Ever Election Camapign. Ever."
You think CON are done for?
I think they will get a gubbing on Thursday.
But talk of the death of the most successful political party of the past couple of decades is seriously overdone. And will probably appear comical within the year.
Labour look like coming in a little shy of 40, Tories low 20s unless Reform fizzle
This is a crack suicide squad election.
To show just how much Reform are shitting the bed: combine them with the Conservatives and they now *match* Labour.
But they don’t match LLG. The experimentation with minor parties is happening on both sides.
This poll is LLG 57, RefCon 37. That’s precisely in line with bloc totals over the last several months. The bloc is 20% ahead.
You can't add Liberal Democrats to "the left" that's not how the electorate see them, and, often, not how they present themselves.
You can for the Greens.
There are countless instances of Lib Dems voting Labour tactically to keep the Tories out. Not heard of any Lib Dems voting Tory tactically to keep Labour out.
Professor Anthony Seldon: Hard to think of a period of Tory domination that has achieved less
Sir Anthony Seldon is our next guest on Politics Hub With Ali Fortescue. He has penned a new book entitled '2010-2014: 14 wasted years?', and we ask for his reflections on the Tory years in power.
Coming to Brittany you realise what a feat the Welsh have achieved - keeping Welsh alive. It is easy to find people naturally speaking Welsh - thee are entire towns where it is the main language. You walk into bars and shops - they speak Welsh
When I first arrived in Brittany I asked guides where I could find native speakers. They were all all quite furtive - er, try a market, maybe the islands; dunno
Now I realise that they did not want to disappoint me. But the truth is Breton has vanished
Every time a civilising influence arrived they dispersed into the hills
In that respect the Welsh are very much like the Kogi of Colombia
That's quite an enjoyable article. They should get the writer to write for their sister publication and it might be on the way to becoming readable again
If I ever meet my stalker I shall hand on your appreciation
I briefly had a stalker last year. It was unnerving.
You think I've stopped?
Oh shit.
About to watch the 3rd and 4th episodes of baby Reindeer here.
Labour look like coming in a little shy of 40, Tories low 20s unless Reform fizzle
This is a crack suicide squad election.
To show just how much Reform are shitting the bed: combine them with the Conservatives and they now *match* Labour.
But they don’t match LLG. The experimentation with minor parties is happening on both sides.
This poll is LLG 57, RefCon 37. That’s precisely in line with bloc totals over the last several months. The bloc is 20% ahead.
You can't add Liberal Democrats to "the left" that's not how the electorate see them, and, often, not how they present themselves.
You can for the Greens.
There are countless instances of Lib Dems voting Labour tactically to keep the Tories out. Not heard of any Lib Dems voting Tory tactically to keep Labour out.
The 57% LLG also mercifully excludes both SNP and Plaid despite both being culturally left of centre.
Professor Anthony Seldon: Hard to think of a period of Tory domination that has achieved less
Sir Anthony Seldon is our next guest on Politics Hub With Ali Fortescue. He has penned a new book entitled '2010-2014: 14 wasted years?', and we ask for his reflections on the Tory years in power.
Professor Anthony Seldon: Hard to think of a period of Tory domination that has achieved less
Sir Anthony Seldon is our next guest on Politics Hub With Ali Fortescue. He has penned a new book entitled '2010-2014: 14 wasted years?', and we ask for his reflections on the Tory years in power. He says there were some good things, such as in education where standards rose, "aspects of pensions, aspects of science, aspects of the arts, Universal Credit". But he goes on: "Overall, growth and productivity has been stagnant since the global financial crisis of 2007-8, and if we look at health, if we look at transport, if we look at housing, if we look at the state of defence, if we look at Britain's position in the world - we don't see the different historians and academics who wrote the book... there isn't the kind of significant change in the standard of all those various areas and other that we have tended to see in long periods of Tory government in the past." He says there have been "some progressive, important, and incremental changes, but overall a disappointing performance, frankly". "It's hard to think of any period of single-party domination by the Conservative Party that has achieved less than the party's achieved since 2010." Infighting has been partly to blame, and it is also a party that is "unsure what it believes in" and is "confused", Sir Anthony says. He also says "the flip flop" of policies and ideological direction has been a problem. "There were so many opportunities that the Conservative government could have had for consistent and thoughtful policymaking, and it simply hasn't happened."
Labour look like coming in a little shy of 40, Tories low 20s unless Reform fizzle
This is a crack suicide squad election.
To show just how much Reform are shitting the bed: combine them with the Conservatives and they now *match* Labour.
But they don’t match LLG. The experimentation with minor parties is happening on both sides.
This poll is LLG 57, RefCon 37. That’s precisely in line with bloc totals over the last several months. The bloc is 20% ahead.
You can't add Liberal Democrats to "the left" that's not how the electorate see them, and, often, not how they present themselves.
You can for the Greens.
There are countless instances of Lib Dems voting Labour tactically to keep the Tories out. Not heard of any Lib Dems voting Tory tactically to keep Labour out.
I suspect a lot of Lib Dems did switch to Tory in 2015 once the game was up, and stayed there during Corbyn time. But this didn't seem to matter in places where Labour were already winning, which just hammers home the broader point about the Lib Dems' place in the party system.
A fun bet for election night has to be LibDem share vs Reform share. What's the PB consensus? Reform +1?
Oh probably Reform +4 (as in 4 over LDs)
It's odd that the LDs, the biggest campaigners for electoral reform, relatively benefit so grandly from the lack of reform.
I really dislike the LDs as they currently are. They should be my obvious alternative to a Tory vote, but everything about them is just wrong.
All my voting life, the Lib Dems have been to the left of Labour, which makes them gaining from the Tories in the shires odd. But perception is everything and they are still seen as being the middle party.
Does your voting life not include the coalition period and Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party?
Okay, fair point on Corbyn! But as Tony Blair said, if you run three general election campaigns to the left of Labour and end up in coalition with the Tories, you have something of a problem.
To be fair, Nick Clegg was not to the left of Brown and much closer to Cameron.
Charles Kennedy was to the left of Labour, but Clegg wasn't.
It'll be interesting if the Lib Dems do have a big increase in MPs just what their candidate selection has been like. Will they have some good fresh blood and are they truly liberals?
The Lib Dems could, just could, have a narrow window of opportunity to replace the Tories but only if they embrace being a liberal party of the centre-right (which is after all economic liberalism).
If they become the opposition, they'll oppose from the left.
If they do, they'll fade away again and miss their opportunity.
The country doesn't have the space for two large parties of the left.
That's assuming that Starmer's Labour Party will be a party of the left. Starmer seems to be promising a more efficient version of the Tories.
I've been worrying about the whole "better administration of the same crap system" thing for a long time, but we'll see what happens. It's always possible that Labour will tack leftwards again and soak the wealthy once the necessity of mollifying Tory switchers in the election has been got out of the way - either immediately, or when it becomes clear in a couple of years that growth isn't going to provide extra tax receipts to deal with decrepit public services and fund the ever-increasing pension bill at the same time.
Professor Anthony Seldon: Hard to think of a period of Tory domination that has achieved less
Sir Anthony Seldon is our next guest on Politics Hub With Ali Fortescue. He has penned a new book entitled '2010-2014: 14 wasted years?', and we ask for his reflections on the Tory years in power. He says there were some good things, such as in education where standards rose, "aspects of pensions, aspects of science, aspects of the arts, Universal Credit". But he goes on: "Overall, growth and productivity has been stagnant since the global financial crisis of 2007-8, and if we look at health, if we look at transport, if we look at housing, if we look at the state of defence, if we look at Britain's position in the world - we don't see the different historians and academics who wrote the book... there isn't the kind of significant change in the standard of all those various areas and other that we have tended to see in long periods of Tory government in the past." He says there have been "some progressive, important, and incremental changes, but overall a disappointing performance, frankly". "It's hard to think of any period of single-party domination by the Conservative Party that has achieved less than the party's achieved since 2010." Infighting has been partly to blame, and it is also a party that is "unsure what it believes in" and is "confused", Sir Anthony says. He also says "the flip flop" of policies and ideological direction has been a problem. "There were so many opportunities that the Conservative government could have had for consistent and thoughtful policymaking, and it simply hasn't happened."
Indeed. However, in 14 years of Tory PMs: Years 1-5: no majority - so, the coalition. Arguably quite successful economically in steadying the ship after the 2008 crash - but no real room to do anything particularly Conservative. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing: lets do what there is a majority for. Doing fewer things and doing them well is fine. Years 6-7: a tiny majority, and not much time before: Years 8-9: minority government again and 2 years of parliament dicking about. Years 10-12: Finally, a decent majority - but then the biggest emergency since the war comes along, followed by Ukraine: two years of firefighting. Years 13-14: Finally, after 12 years, the opportunity to do somethubg Conservative - but covid and Ukraine have exhausted state coffers and in any case the party is now exhausted and has used all its political capital.
I would have quite liked the Conservatives to have tried to undo the leftward shift in government and in culture which has happened during the 97-10 years. But parliamentary arithmetic and outside emergencies meant they never really got started.
It certainly hasn't been a golden period of Conservatism, but they have been unusually unlucky.
The big omissions there are:
Year 1-5: Counter-productive austerity in pursuit of neoliberal idealism. Year 6: A monumental self-inflicted wound followed by the chief culprit flouncing off. Year 7: The translation of a narrow vote in favour of x to mean we must have full-on X with knobs on. Years 10-11: An inability to follow the rules set for everyone else. Year 12: Economic illiteracy of the first degree. Years 13-14: Any modicum of trust in HMG had understandably evaporated, so it was all too late.
Labour look like coming in a little shy of 40, Tories low 20s unless Reform fizzle
This is a crack suicide squad election.
To show just how much Reform are shitting the bed: combine them with the Conservatives and they now *match* Labour.
But they don’t match LLG. The experimentation with minor parties is happening on both sides.
This poll is LLG 57, RefCon 37. That’s precisely in line with bloc totals over the last several months. The bloc is 20% ahead.
You can't add Liberal Democrats to "the left" that's not how the electorate see them, and, often, not how they present themselves.
You can for the Greens.
You can’t add Reform to the right then . Many of their supporters are national(ist) socialists, and you know it.
Try promising the people of South Holland or Clacton a Thatcherite free market paradise and see how far it gets you.
And as a Lib Dem myself I can happily add our lot to the bloc that isn’t right wing.
The blocs are essentially as follows: those who think Rishi is too left wing. And those who think he’s too right wing.
Pathetic. A desperate attempt to try and make yourself feel better about your side of politics. I know lots of people voting LD who are anything but left-wing, and you can't claim them. It's not how you present yourselves and it's not how your voters are.
You know Con + Reform have drawn level with Labour, and it really disturbs you.
Labour look like coming in a little shy of 40, Tories low 20s unless Reform fizzle
This is a crack suicide squad election.
To show just how much Reform are shitting the bed: combine them with the Conservatives and they now *match* Labour.
But they don’t match LLG. The experimentation with minor parties is happening on both sides.
This poll is LLG 57, RefCon 37. That’s precisely in line with bloc totals over the last several months. The bloc is 20% ahead.
You can't add Liberal Democrats to "the left" that's not how the electorate see them, and, often, not how they present themselves.
You can for the Greens.
There are countless instances of Lib Dems voting Labour tactically to keep the Tories out. Not heard of any Lib Dems voting Tory tactically to keep Labour out.
Labour look like coming in a little shy of 40, Tories low 20s unless Reform fizzle
This is a crack suicide squad election.
To show just how much Reform are shitting the bed: combine them with the Conservatives and they now *match* Labour.
But they don’t match LLG. The experimentation with minor parties is happening on both sides.
This poll is LLG 57, RefCon 37. That’s precisely in line with bloc totals over the last several months. The bloc is 20% ahead.
You can't add Liberal Democrats to "the left" that's not how the electorate see them, and, often, not how they present themselves.
You can for the Greens.
On the contrary, you must, because almost every seat they can gain will be from the Conservatives, which isn't true of Reform. Labour and Green people will tactically vote LD to beat the Conservatives. That's what matters when looking at those vote shares. And it explains why LDs finish second on seats while fourth on votes when the more extreme forecasts are Baxtered.
Not on the contrary.
You cannot add LD to the Left and any who do are simply doing so to contrived a majority to make themselves feel they are in the ascendancy where none exists.
Professor Anthony Seldon: Hard to think of a period of Tory domination that has achieved less
Sir Anthony Seldon is our next guest on Politics Hub With Ali Fortescue. He has penned a new book entitled '2010-2014: 14 wasted years?', and we ask for his reflections on the Tory years in power. He says there were some good things, such as in education where standards rose, "aspects of pensions, aspects of science, aspects of the arts, Universal Credit". But he goes on: "Overall, growth and productivity has been stagnant since the global financial crisis of 2007-8, and if we look at health, if we look at transport, if we look at housing, if we look at the state of defence, if we look at Britain's position in the world - we don't see the different historians and academics who wrote the book... there isn't the kind of significant change in the standard of all those various areas and other that we have tended to see in long periods of Tory government in the past." He says there have been "some progressive, important, and incremental changes, but overall a disappointing performance, frankly". "It's hard to think of any period of single-party domination by the Conservative Party that has achieved less than the party's achieved since 2010." Infighting has been partly to blame, and it is also a party that is "unsure what it believes in" and is "confused", Sir Anthony says. He also says "the flip flop" of policies and ideological direction has been a problem. "There were so many opportunities that the Conservative government could have had for consistent and thoughtful policymaking, and it simply hasn't happened."
Indeed. However, in 14 years of Tory PMs: Years 1-5: no majority - so, the coalition. Arguably quite successful economically in steadying the ship after the 2008 crash - but no real room to do anything particularly Conservative. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing: lets do what there is a majority for. Doing fewer things and doing them well is fine. Years 6-7: a tiny majority, and not much time before: Years 8-9: minority government again and 2 years of parliament dicking about. Years 10-12: Finally, a decent majority - but then the biggest emergency since the war comes along, followed by Ukraine: two years of firefighting. Years 13-14: Finally, after 12 years, the opportunity to do somethubg Conservative - but covid and Ukraine have exhausted state coffers and in any case the party is now exhausted and has used all its political capital.
I would have quite liked the Conservatives to have tried to undo the leftward shift in government and in culture which has happened during the 97-10 years. But parliamentary arithmetic and outside emergencies meant they never really got started.
It certainly hasn't been a golden period of Conservatism, but they have been unusually unlucky.
Not obviously unluckier than the incoming Labour government. Personally I don't count dishonesty, denial of reality, incompetence and a string of poor decisions as bad luck.
The problem was entirely on the MPs, selecting two names and then refusing to back the winner.
If you don’t want someone to be leader, then don’t nominate them in the first place.
The problem was the pool of names they had to choose from
If you don't want only duds, don't select a vindictive clown as leader...
Yes, the lack of Anna Soubry was a blow they never really recovered from.
Just imagine if Truss had left the party rather than Soubry... the country would be in a *much* better state...
The great failure of the Conservative Party in the post 2016 era, is that they have managed to drive out both Anderson (and his ilk) and Soubry (and hers), leaving them with the support of - checks - homeowning pensioners.
Soubry wasn't a loss - only problem has been that CCHQ replaced their ilk with similar Lib Dems. That has greatly weakened the Tories as a parliamentary force, and meant that their 80 seat majority was never really what it appeared.
If you get elected to a party on the right, on a platform of right wing policies, I think the public should be entitled to expect you to believe in them and work to implement them.
Whatever happens after this election, the Tory Party will never survive until CCHQ is completely cleaned out.
Conservative party members could lose their final say over who becomes Tory leader as senior figures weigh up whether to change the rules if they suffer an election defeat.
Two Cabinet ministers have expressed interest to The Telegraph about diluting the voting power of members given criticism over how the grassroots selected Liz Truss in 2022.
Similar arguments have been made in public and private by influential Tories in the last year amid frustration at how Ms Truss’s premiership backfired, sending the party’s opinion poll rating plummeting.
While Tory candidates are insisting it is still possible to win the general election next Thursday, privately many are braced for defeat, with minds turning to what may come afterwards.
Good. The party leader has to be the person the MPs think is best to lead them in Parliament. The membership should have nothing to do with it.
The 'membership vote' was given in exchange for the rank and file giving up the entire democratic structure of a party that once had a million members.
By all means take the membership vote away, if you're prepared to give the right to select MPs themselves back to local associations, taking it back from the disastrous grip of the incompetent and frankly malevolent CCHQ organisation.
Labour look like coming in a little shy of 40, Tories low 20s unless Reform fizzle
This is a crack suicide squad election.
To show just how much Reform are shitting the bed: combine them with the Conservatives and they now *match* Labour.
But they don’t match LLG. The experimentation with minor parties is happening on both sides.
This poll is LLG 57, RefCon 37. That’s precisely in line with bloc totals over the last several months. The bloc is 20% ahead.
You can't add Liberal Democrats to "the left" that's not how the electorate see them, and, often, not how they present themselves.
You can for the Greens.
There are countless instances of Lib Dems voting Labour tactically to keep the Tories out. Not heard of any Lib Dems voting Tory tactically to keep Labour out.
Have you heard of the 2019 General Election?
We are discussing this election not past history.
In this election Lib Dem/Greens/Labour are voting tactically for each and therefore can be seen as a more coherent voting bloc tan Con and Reform.
Opinium were almost bang on in 2019 but have changed their methodology since.
I will stick with Labour on about 40%.
Sunak's strategy actually had some sense in it but he simply wasn't able to execute.
It was clearly to wrongfoot and cripple Reform, and then go for Labour on tax. And you can see that playing out in what CCHQ has done.
Almost could have worked. Had he got it right the Tories could have been up at 32-33% and Labour at 37-38% and a hung parliament.
In the end Rishi just wasn't up to it...
The thing that has shocked me the most is that the Tory fundraising has been absolutely terrible. They wouldn´t be withdrawing support from held seats, if they had enough money... but they do not. This despite the fact that Sunak must have been thinking about a snap poll for at least a little while. The fact is that the Tories seem to have been just as surprised as any other party by the early poll. Sunak squandered the one clear advantage that he had. If he had held the poll in the autumn, Farage would not even be standing, because he would be over with Trump and MAGAs for their election.
Labour look like coming in a little shy of 40, Tories low 20s unless Reform fizzle
This is a crack suicide squad election.
To show just how much Reform are shitting the bed: combine them with the Conservatives and they now *match* Labour.
But they don’t match LLG. The experimentation with minor parties is happening on both sides.
This poll is LLG 57, RefCon 37. That’s precisely in line with bloc totals over the last several months. The bloc is 20% ahead.
You can't add Liberal Democrats to "the left" that's not how the electorate see them, and, often, not how they present themselves.
You can for the Greens.
There are countless instances of Lib Dems voting Labour tactically to keep the Tories out. Not heard of any Lib Dems voting Tory tactically to keep Labour out.
Have you heard of the 2019 General Election?
You think Lib Dems feel closer to Mr Sunak than to Starmer? You think they'll feel closer to the next right-winger on the Con leadership conveyor? That's your privilege but you are not correct. Sadly sticking your fingers in your ears and closing your eyes won't take you back to 2019. That moment of opportunity came, was wasted and has passed.
Opinium were almost bang on in 2019 but have changed their methodology since.
I will stick with Labour on about 40%.
Sunak's strategy actually had some sense in it but he simply wasn't able to execute.
It was clearly to wrongfoot and cripple Reform, and then go for Labour on tax. And you can see that playing out in what CCHQ has done.
Almost could have worked. Had he got it right the Tories could have been up at 32-33% and Labour at 37-38% and a hung parliament.
In the end Rishi just wasn't up to it...
The thing that has shocked me the most is that the Tory fundraising has been absolutely terrible. They wouldn´t be withdrawing support from held seats, if they had enough money... but they do not. This despite the fact that Sunak must have been thinking about a snap poll for at least a little while. The fact is that the Tories seem to have been just as surprised as any other party by the early poll. Sunak squandered the one clear advantage that he had. If he had held the poll in the autumn, Farage would not even be standing, because he would be over with Trump and MAGAs for their election.
One of the things I find quite baffling about this General Election is just *why* the Tories were so surprised by the 4th July date. I'm no expert, but even I knew that there was an election coming within the next nine months - in order to meet that eventuality there need to be candidates in place (at the very least) and the local parties on standby. Those in the Party HQs no doubt have other more clever things to do (have a media strategy, be ready to buy advertising space, have fundraising numbers on speed-dial, rent a battlebus etc) but the structure for all that should have been in place. Realistically. there were only a few dates when the election could have been held - there's no excuse for them not being ready. It's bizarre.
Opinium were almost bang on in 2019 but have changed their methodology since.
I will stick with Labour on about 40%.
Sunak's strategy actually had some sense in it but he simply wasn't able to execute.
It was clearly to wrongfoot and cripple Reform, and then go for Labour on tax. And you can see that playing out in what CCHQ has done.
Almost could have worked. Had he got it right the Tories could have been up at 32-33% and Labour at 37-38% and a hung parliament.
In the end Rishi just wasn't up to it...
The thing that has shocked me the most is that the Tory fundraising has been absolutely terrible. They wouldn´t be withdrawing support from held seats, if they had enough money... but they do not. This despite the fact that Sunak must have been thinking about a snap poll for at least a little while. The fact is that the Tories seem to have been just as surprised as any other party by the early poll. Sunak squandered the one clear advantage that he had. If he had held the poll in the autumn, Farage would not even be standing, because he would be over with Trump and MAGAs for their election.
However the economic data would have been worse with inflation rising again and there was zero chance of tax cuts...
Comments
It helps that Britanny was never industrialised
I might be revising my opinion that Italy is the most beautiful serious country per square mile and putting previous silver medalists France on the top spot. The proliferation of beautiful towns and landscapes is absolutely confounding
It's the one thing I've heard everyone talking about.
https://www.tntsports.co.uk/football/euro-2016/2016/stephan-lichtsteiner-earns-support-after-suggesting-swiss-side-has-too-many-immigrants_sto4659383/story.shtml
You can for the Greens.
And the ad hominem is typical of you and your hysteria and fundamental lack of intelligence and self-awareness.
Try promising the people of South Holland or Clacton a Thatcherite free market paradise and see how far it gets you.
And as a Lib Dem myself I can happily add our lot to the bloc that isn’t right wing.
The blocs are essentially as follows: those who think Rishi is too left wing. And those who think he’s too right wing.
However, in 14 years of Tory PMs:
Years 1-5: no majority - so, the coalition. Arguably quite successful economically in steadying the ship after the 2008 crash - but no real room to do anything particularly Conservative. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing: lets do what there is a majority for. Doing fewer things and doing them well is fine.
Years 6-7: a tiny majority, and not much time before:
Years 8-9: minority government again and 2 years of parliament dicking about.
Years 10-12: Finally, a decent majority - but then the biggest emergency since the war comes along, followed by Ukraine: two years of firefighting.
Years 13-14: Finally, after 12 years, the opportunity to do somethubg Conservative - but covid and Ukraine have exhausted state coffers and in any case the party is now exhausted and has used all its political capital.
I would have quite liked the Conservatives to have tried to undo the leftward shift in government and in culture which has happened during the 97-10 years. But parliamentary arithmetic and outside emergencies meant they never really got started.
It certainly hasn't been a golden period of Conservatism, but they have been unusually unlucky.
About to watch the 3rd and 4th episodes of baby Reindeer here.
NEW THREAD
Year 1-5: Counter-productive austerity in pursuit of neoliberal idealism.
Year 6: A monumental self-inflicted wound followed by the chief culprit flouncing off.
Year 7: The translation of a narrow vote in favour of x to mean we must have full-on X with knobs on.
Years 10-11: An inability to follow the rules set for everyone else.
Year 12: Economic illiteracy of the first degree.
Years 13-14: Any modicum of trust in HMG had understandably evaporated, so it was all too late.
You know Con + Reform have drawn level with Labour, and it really disturbs you.
Prepare for more of it.
You cannot add LD to the Left and any who do are simply doing so to contrived a majority to make themselves feel they are in the ascendancy where none exists.
In this election Lib Dem/Greens/Labour are voting tactically for each and therefore can be seen as a more coherent voting bloc tan Con and Reform.
He really should have gone in May...