It’s only a sub-sample but.. – politicalbetting.com

MattW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder what first attracted him to Reform?

Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?

A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.

Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.

“I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”

In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”

He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.

Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

I had to count the dashes.

My immediate skim-read thought was "But Sunak *is* a fucking Prick".

The observation that Fareham does not have a railway station...

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

.

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Pagan2 said:

pigeon said:

Pagan2 said:

algarkirk said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

Question - what is the difference between "socialist government" and the Conservatives?

Punative taxes to record levels? Tick
Wasting billions on crap public services? Tick
Open door migration letting anyone in? Tick
Nanny state nonsense about what we eat and smoke? Tick

People don't fear "socialist government" or any of the idiotic threats Sunak and the press team are making, because we live that every day already.

The Overton window is so narrow there is almost nothing substantive to discuss. Once you have a welfare state, free state education, NHS, industrial policy, consumer protection, regulation about everything, and a few other things a social democrat state with highly regulated capitalism is the only option. State managed expenditure has increased every year and this will continue. It is unavoidable.

The left have one further option - this + socialist state control of all commerce too. No serious right wing option has emerged with a working model in Europe yet. This is one of the most remarkable and underestimated facts of political policy. The Conservative party's two biggest fails since the war are: Lack of European statecraft, leading to the disaster of Brexit; and the failure to practice conservatism in any respects at all.

Not something I advocate by any means just an observation on all governements of the past

Wars used to cull the poor, now we no longer really have mass casualty wars its a new problem for governements of all stripes to have a burgeoning underclass and they have no idea how to deal with it

More broadly we have a terrible problem with dependency, chiefly due to a combination of low paid employment and ridiculous housing costs (meaning that many working people end up reliant on social security) and vast numbers of pensioners. The situation is theoretically recoverable, but some of the measures required - especially millions of houses and attendant infrastructure, and requiring people to work until 70 or possibly slightly beyond that - are so unpopular that they'll probably never get done. I'll certainly be surprised in a good way of Labour manages to meet its building commitments, and astonished if the houses are decent rather than shoddily constructed little identikit rabbit hutches marooned amidst acres of car parking.

Labour won't meet those targets even if it is their deepest desire, simple fact is there aren't enough construction workers nor the supply of building materials. The problem is exacerbated by the fact we are over the 50% mark for people who take more from the state than they give. For those people voting for more is a no brainer.

As many might have noted I tend rightwards . However I do believe there should be a safety net, free education to 18 and a health service which is free at point of use.

I also believe though that the state does too much and we should trim back what we do. I would rather the state did less but funded it properly than it tries to do too much and half arses everything.

For starters I would do a clawback on state pensions, every 5£ over say 5k private pension should mean 1£ off your state pension

NI on pensions

A lifetime health care costs cap with an insurance based top off

As examples

There is no shortage of skilled tradies in this country who could be building homes if they were easily able to do so without planning restrictions.

Sorry but there is, firms are poaching workers off each other because they can't get enough for example brickies
and yes because we don't train enough

Firms poaching off each other is the free market in action.

Nobody has a divine right to minimum wage labour.

Brickies aren't min wage for a while, there just arent enough here to build 300k houses a year, average wage for a brickie now is 20 an hour

We've just been discussing, a quick search for apprentice brickie posts is advertising at £5.28 per hour.

Maybe apprentices should be £12/h and average wages £25?

If you're not able to fill your vacancies, that's because you're either not paying enough, or not offering good enough terms of service.

Thats apprentices and yes to low however you aren't going to ask an apprentice to build a house. We have an apprentice at work and he is a good guy, however we arent getting him to build any software that is going to go anywhere near a customer....same I would imagine for an apprentice brickie, you are teaching him how to not letting him near somewhere someone is going to live in and rely on not falling down. Till he is trained enough he is not an asset but a cost

Not by themselves they won't, but they will go near it yes and do simple work, that's how people learn is by doing under supervision and learning more and more. Starting with the simplest tasks and moving on.

Either way, the only reason that any firm is struggling to hire is its not paying a market rate on wages that meets sees supply of labour meet demand.

But you are talking bollocks by going on about apprentices pay rates when pay rates for actual brickies is 20 an hour on average....now by all means argue apprentice brickies should be paid more to encourage more brickies however actual time served brickies are making reasonable money

Why is £20 "reasonable money" for what we've agreed is a skilled, in-demand job?

Sorry but if you can't fill your shortages, you may need to pay more.

That's supply and demand in action. The free market in action.

20 might not be reasonable money as you state the fact is the last year it has climbed ever higher because there are less brickies than people trying to employ them.

That indicates to me which was the point of my original post that there just aren't enough brickies to build 300k houses. Like fully trained doctors you can't just magic them out of thin air and that is before you even look at the shortage of materials to actually build with.

You can only build as many houses as you have workers and materials for

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

pigeon said:

Pagan2 said:

algarkirk said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

Question - what is the difference between "socialist government" and the Conservatives?

Punative taxes to record levels? Tick
Wasting billions on crap public services? Tick
Open door migration letting anyone in? Tick
Nanny state nonsense about what we eat and smoke? Tick

People don't fear "socialist government" or any of the idiotic threats Sunak and the press team are making, because we live that every day already.

The Overton window is so narrow there is almost nothing substantive to discuss. Once you have a welfare state, free state education, NHS, industrial policy, consumer protection, regulation about everything, and a few other things a social democrat state with highly regulated capitalism is the only option. State managed expenditure has increased every year and this will continue. It is unavoidable.

The left have one further option - this + socialist state control of all commerce too. No serious right wing option has emerged with a working model in Europe yet. This is one of the most remarkable and underestimated facts of political policy. The Conservative party's two biggest fails since the war are: Lack of European statecraft, leading to the disaster of Brexit; and the failure to practice conservatism in any respects at all.

Not something I advocate by any means just an observation on all governements of the past

Wars used to cull the poor, now we no longer really have mass casualty wars its a new problem for governements of all stripes to have a burgeoning underclass and they have no idea how to deal with it

More broadly we have a terrible problem with dependency, chiefly due to a combination of low paid employment and ridiculous housing costs (meaning that many working people end up reliant on social security) and vast numbers of pensioners. The situation is theoretically recoverable, but some of the measures required - especially millions of houses and attendant infrastructure, and requiring people to work until 70 or possibly slightly beyond that - are so unpopular that they'll probably never get done. I'll certainly be surprised in a good way of Labour manages to meet its building commitments, and astonished if the houses are decent rather than shoddily constructed little identikit rabbit hutches marooned amidst acres of car parking.

Labour won't meet those targets even if it is their deepest desire, simple fact is there aren't enough construction workers nor the supply of building materials. The problem is exacerbated by the fact we are over the 50% mark for people who take more from the state than they give. For those people voting for more is a no brainer.

As many might have noted I tend rightwards . However I do believe there should be a safety net, free education to 18 and a health service which is free at point of use.

I also believe though that the state does too much and we should trim back what we do. I would rather the state did less but funded it properly than it tries to do too much and half arses everything.

For starters I would do a clawback on state pensions, every 5£ over say 5k private pension should mean 1£ off your state pension

NI on pensions

A lifetime health care costs cap with an insurance based top off

As examples

The problem with doing that with state pensions is that it discourages saving for your pension: why bother putting money away if it just gets clawed back?

And the UK's savings rate is already low by international standards.

that is why I set the clawback to only occur after 5k and then at a 1 in 5 ratio

currently you get state pension + 10k, after you get state + 9k is losing 1k enough to deter saving?

Pagan2 said:

kle4 said:

Pagan2 said:

PedestrianRock said:

Disagree massively with the idea that the Lib Dems getting 40-50 seats would be an excellent result.

With all the fundamentals as they are you want LOTO Ed Davey or bust.

If you can’t finish 2nd from here then what exactly is the point of the Lib Dems?

If they get 40 to 50 seats thats a failure for democracy

That would be 6-7% of seats on something like 10-12% of the vote, so not proportionate but not as bad as it could be, on their own terms.

It would highlight the fact that the electorate can't be depended on to use their vote wisely

Carnyx said:

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

.

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Pagan2 said:

pigeon said:

Pagan2 said:

algarkirk said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

Question - what is the difference between "socialist government" and the Conservatives?

Punative taxes to record levels? Tick
Wasting billions on crap public services? Tick
Open door migration letting anyone in? Tick
Nanny state nonsense about what we eat and smoke? Tick

People don't fear "socialist government" or any of the idiotic threats Sunak and the press team are making, because we live that every day already.

The Overton window is so narrow there is almost nothing substantive to discuss. Once you have a welfare state, free state education, NHS, industrial policy, consumer protection, regulation about everything, and a few other things a social democrat state with highly regulated capitalism is the only option. State managed expenditure has increased every year and this will continue. It is unavoidable.

The left have one further option - this + socialist state control of all commerce too. No serious right wing option has emerged with a working model in Europe yet. This is one of the most remarkable and underestimated facts of political policy. The Conservative party's two biggest fails since the war are: Lack of European statecraft, leading to the disaster of Brexit; and the failure to practice conservatism in any respects at all.

Not something I advocate by any means just an observation on all governements of the past

Wars used to cull the poor, now we no longer really have mass casualty wars its a new problem for governements of all stripes to have a burgeoning underclass and they have no idea how to deal with it

More broadly we have a terrible problem with dependency, chiefly due to a combination of low paid employment and ridiculous housing costs (meaning that many working people end up reliant on social security) and vast numbers of pensioners. The situation is theoretically recoverable, but some of the measures required - especially millions of houses and attendant infrastructure, and requiring people to work until 70 or possibly slightly beyond that - are so unpopular that they'll probably never get done. I'll certainly be surprised in a good way of Labour manages to meet its building commitments, and astonished if the houses are decent rather than shoddily constructed little identikit rabbit hutches marooned amidst acres of car parking.

Labour won't meet those targets even if it is their deepest desire, simple fact is there aren't enough construction workers nor the supply of building materials. The problem is exacerbated by the fact we are over the 50% mark for people who take more from the state than they give. For those people voting for more is a no brainer.

As many might have noted I tend rightwards . However I do believe there should be a safety net, free education to 18 and a health service which is free at point of use.

I also believe though that the state does too much and we should trim back what we do. I would rather the state did less but funded it properly than it tries to do too much and half arses everything.

For starters I would do a clawback on state pensions, every 5£ over say 5k private pension should mean 1£ off your state pension

NI on pensions

A lifetime health care costs cap with an insurance based top off

As examples

There is no shortage of skilled tradies in this country who could be building homes if they were easily able to do so without planning restrictions.

Sorry but there is, firms are poaching workers off each other because they can't get enough for example brickies
and yes because we don't train enough

Firms poaching off each other is the free market in action.

Nobody has a divine right to minimum wage labour.

Brickies aren't min wage for a while, there just arent enough here to build 300k houses a year, average wage for a brickie now is 20 an hour

We've just been discussing, a quick search for apprentice brickie posts is advertising at £5.28 per hour.

Maybe apprentices should be £12/h and average wages £25?

If you're not able to fill your vacancies, that's because you're either not paying enough, or not offering good enough terms of service.

Thats apprentices and yes to low however you aren't going to ask an apprentice to build a house. We have an apprentice at work and he is a good guy, however we arent getting him to build any software that is going to go anywhere near a customer....same I would imagine for an apprentice brickie, you are teaching him how to not letting him near somewhere someone is going to live in and rely on not falling down. Till he is trained enough he is not an asset but a cost

Not by themselves they won't, but they will go near it yes and do simple work, that's how people learn is by doing under supervision and learning more and more. Starting with the simplest tasks and moving on.

Either way, the only reason that any firm is struggling to hire is its not paying a market rate on wages that meets sees supply of labour meet demand.

But you are talking bollocks by going on about apprentices pay rates when pay rates for actual brickies is 20 an hour on average....now by all means argue apprentice brickies should be paid more to encourage more brickies however actual time served brickies are making reasonable money

Why is £20 "reasonable money" for what we've agreed is a skilled, in-demand job?

Sorry but if you can't fill your shortages, you may need to pay more.

That's supply and demand in action. The free market in action.

20 might not be reasonable money as you state the fact is the last year it has climbed ever higher because there are less brickies than people trying to employ them.

That indicates to me which was the point of my original post that there just aren't enough brickies to build 300k houses. Like fully trained doctors you can't just magic them out of thin air and that is before you even look at the shortage of materials to actually build with.

You can only build as many houses as you have workers and materials for

Been there before. Prefabs, factory made concrete building systems, now this: printing houses with concrete.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vL2KoMNzGTo

Leon said:

Actually, this is a good point. If Farage is “political Marmite”, what was Hitler?

For me he was “political Nutella”. Personally, I can’t stand Nutella, but a lot of people like it, especially Germans

eek said:

This time next week we have the exit poll

Pagan2 said:

Leon said:

Actually, this is a good point. If Farage is “political Marmite”, what was Hitler?

For me he was “political Nutella”. Personally, I can’t stand Nutella, but a lot of people like it, especially Germans

vegemite surely as he was a vegetarian

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

.

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Pagan2 said:

pigeon said:

Pagan2 said:

algarkirk said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

Question - what is the difference between "socialist government" and the Conservatives?

Punative taxes to record levels? Tick
Wasting billions on crap public services? Tick
Open door migration letting anyone in? Tick
Nanny state nonsense about what we eat and smoke? Tick

People don't fear "socialist government" or any of the idiotic threats Sunak and the press team are making, because we live that every day already.

The Overton window is so narrow there is almost nothing substantive to discuss. Once you have a welfare state, free state education, NHS, industrial policy, consumer protection, regulation about everything, and a few other things a social democrat state with highly regulated capitalism is the only option. State managed expenditure has increased every year and this will continue. It is unavoidable.

The left have one further option - this + socialist state control of all commerce too. No serious right wing option has emerged with a working model in Europe yet. This is one of the most remarkable and underestimated facts of political policy. The Conservative party's two biggest fails since the war are: Lack of European statecraft, leading to the disaster of Brexit; and the failure to practice conservatism in any respects at all.

Not something I advocate by any means just an observation on all governements of the past

Wars used to cull the poor, now we no longer really have mass casualty wars its a new problem for governements of all stripes to have a burgeoning underclass and they have no idea how to deal with it

More broadly we have a terrible problem with dependency, chiefly due to a combination of low paid employment and ridiculous housing costs (meaning that many working people end up reliant on social security) and vast numbers of pensioners. The situation is theoretically recoverable, but some of the measures required - especially millions of houses and attendant infrastructure, and requiring people to work until 70 or possibly slightly beyond that - are so unpopular that they'll probably never get done. I'll certainly be surprised in a good way of Labour manages to meet its building commitments, and astonished if the houses are decent rather than shoddily constructed little identikit rabbit hutches marooned amidst acres of car parking.

Labour won't meet those targets even if it is their deepest desire, simple fact is there aren't enough construction workers nor the supply of building materials. The problem is exacerbated by the fact we are over the 50% mark for people who take more from the state than they give. For those people voting for more is a no brainer.

As many might have noted I tend rightwards . However I do believe there should be a safety net, free education to 18 and a health service which is free at point of use.

I also believe though that the state does too much and we should trim back what we do. I would rather the state did less but funded it properly than it tries to do too much and half arses everything.

For starters I would do a clawback on state pensions, every 5£ over say 5k private pension should mean 1£ off your state pension

NI on pensions

A lifetime health care costs cap with an insurance based top off

As examples

There is no shortage of skilled tradies in this country who could be building homes if they were easily able to do so without planning restrictions.

Sorry but there is, firms are poaching workers off each other because they can't get enough for example brickies
and yes because we don't train enough

Firms poaching off each other is the free market in action.

Nobody has a divine right to minimum wage labour.

Brickies aren't min wage for a while, there just arent enough here to build 300k houses a year, average wage for a brickie now is 20 an hour

We've just been discussing, a quick search for apprentice brickie posts is advertising at £5.28 per hour.

Maybe apprentices should be £12/h and average wages £25?

If you're not able to fill your vacancies, that's because you're either not paying enough, or not offering good enough terms of service.

Thats apprentices and yes to low however you aren't going to ask an apprentice to build a house. We have an apprentice at work and he is a good guy, however we arent getting him to build any software that is going to go anywhere near a customer....same I would imagine for an apprentice brickie, you are teaching him how to not letting him near somewhere someone is going to live in and rely on not falling down. Till he is trained enough he is not an asset but a cost

Not by themselves they won't, but they will go near it yes and do simple work, that's how people learn is by doing under supervision and learning more and more. Starting with the simplest tasks and moving on.

Either way, the only reason that any firm is struggling to hire is its not paying a market rate on wages that meets sees supply of labour meet demand.

But you are talking bollocks by going on about apprentices pay rates when pay rates for actual brickies is 20 an hour on average....now by all means argue apprentice brickies should be paid more to encourage more brickies however actual time served brickies are making reasonable money

Why is £20 "reasonable money" for what we've agreed is a skilled, in-demand job?

Sorry but if you can't fill your shortages, you may need to pay more.

That's supply and demand in action. The free market in action.

20 might not be reasonable money as you state the fact is the last year it has climbed ever higher because there are less brickies than people trying to employ them.

That indicates to me which was the point of my original post that there just aren't enough brickies to build 300k houses. Like fully trained doctors you can't just magic them out of thin air and that is before you even look at the shortage of materials to actually build with.

You can only build as many houses as you have workers and materials for

Sandpit said:

Pagan2 said:

dixiedean said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

.

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Pagan2 said:

pigeon said:

Pagan2 said:

algarkirk said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

Question - what is the difference between "socialist government" and the Conservatives?

Punative taxes to record levels? Tick
Wasting billions on crap public services? Tick
Open door migration letting anyone in? Tick
Nanny state nonsense about what we eat and smoke? Tick

People don't fear "socialist government" or any of the idiotic threats Sunak and the press team are making, because we live that every day already.

The Overton window is so narrow there is almost nothing substantive to discuss. Once you have a welfare state, free state education, NHS, industrial policy, consumer protection, regulation about everything, and a few other things a social democrat state with highly regulated capitalism is the only option. State managed expenditure has increased every year and this will continue. It is unavoidable.

The left have one further option - this + socialist state control of all commerce too. No serious right wing option has emerged with a working model in Europe yet. This is one of the most remarkable and underestimated facts of political policy. The Conservative party's two biggest fails since the war are: Lack of European statecraft, leading to the disaster of Brexit; and the failure to practice conservatism in any respects at all.

Not something I advocate by any means just an observation on all governements of the past

Wars used to cull the poor, now we no longer really have mass casualty wars its a new problem for governements of all stripes to have a burgeoning underclass and they have no idea how to deal with it

More broadly we have a terrible problem with dependency, chiefly due to a combination of low paid employment and ridiculous housing costs (meaning that many working people end up reliant on social security) and vast numbers of pensioners. The situation is theoretically recoverable, but some of the measures required - especially millions of houses and attendant infrastructure, and requiring people to work until 70 or possibly slightly beyond that - are so unpopular that they'll probably never get done. I'll certainly be surprised in a good way of Labour manages to meet its building commitments, and astonished if the houses are decent rather than shoddily constructed little identikit rabbit hutches marooned amidst acres of car parking.

Labour won't meet those targets even if it is their deepest desire, simple fact is there aren't enough construction workers nor the supply of building materials. The problem is exacerbated by the fact we are over the 50% mark for people who take more from the state than they give. For those people voting for more is a no brainer.

As many might have noted I tend rightwards . However I do believe there should be a safety net, free education to 18 and a health service which is free at point of use.

I also believe though that the state does too much and we should trim back what we do. I would rather the state did less but funded it properly than it tries to do too much and half arses everything.

For starters I would do a clawback on state pensions, every 5£ over say 5k private pension should mean 1£ off your state pension

NI on pensions

A lifetime health care costs cap with an insurance based top off

As examples

There is no shortage of skilled tradies in this country who could be building homes if they were easily able to do so without planning restrictions.

Sorry but there is, firms are poaching workers off each other because they can't get enough for example brickies
and yes because we don't train enough

Firms poaching off each other is the free market in action.

Nobody has a divine right to minimum wage labour.

Maybe the builders can hire more apprentices, instead of complaining about a lack of skilled workers or asking government for more immigrants.

Just Googled bricklaying apprenticeships and I see some being advertised . . . with a wage of £5.28 per hour.

My sympathies for those who can't find employees at £5.28 per hour.

Presumably they’re looking for 16-year-olds with no bricklaying skills, in which case that’s not too bad. But after a couple of years, they’ll be getting £15-£20 as bricklayers?

You'd think so, but no, this is for 19 year old apprentices with 2 A levels and 5+ GCSEs including Maths and English.

Absolutely no sympathies for anyone struggling to recruit. Increase your pay to a rate that fills your vacancies, its not like you need a 7 year course before you can start laying your first brick.

My Dad did a seven year bricklaying apprenticeship.

I think you underestimate the skills that go into most "craft" skills.....laying your first brick is simple, putting up a house wall that will still be standing in 40 years is quite another. For example I have done a lot of diy that involved a little plastering, probably several months experience all told....first time I plastered a whole wall looked good and smooth in the next morning it had all fallen off the wall

Plastering is one of those dark arts.

Electrics, plumbing, no problem. But plastering, hell no.

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pagan2 said:

pigeon said:

Pagan2 said:

algarkirk said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

Question - what is the difference between "socialist government" and the Conservatives?

Punative taxes to record levels? Tick
Wasting billions on crap public services? Tick
Open door migration letting anyone in? Tick
Nanny state nonsense about what we eat and smoke? Tick

People don't fear "socialist government" or any of the idiotic threats Sunak and the press team are making, because we live that every day already.

The Overton window is so narrow there is almost nothing substantive to discuss. Once you have a welfare state, free state education, NHS, industrial policy, consumer protection, regulation about everything, and a few other things a social democrat state with highly regulated capitalism is the only option. State managed expenditure has increased every year and this will continue. It is unavoidable.

The left have one further option - this + socialist state control of all commerce too. No serious right wing option has emerged with a working model in Europe yet. This is one of the most remarkable and underestimated facts of political policy. The Conservative party's two biggest fails since the war are: Lack of European statecraft, leading to the disaster of Brexit; and the failure to practice conservatism in any respects at all.

Not something I advocate by any means just an observation on all governements of the past

Wars used to cull the poor, now we no longer really have mass casualty wars its a new problem for governements of all stripes to have a burgeoning underclass and they have no idea how to deal with it

More broadly we have a terrible problem with dependency, chiefly due to a combination of low paid employment and ridiculous housing costs (meaning that many working people end up reliant on social security) and vast numbers of pensioners. The situation is theoretically recoverable, but some of the measures required - especially millions of houses and attendant infrastructure, and requiring people to work until 70 or possibly slightly beyond that - are so unpopular that they'll probably never get done. I'll certainly be surprised in a good way of Labour manages to meet its building commitments, and astonished if the houses are decent rather than shoddily constructed little identikit rabbit hutches marooned amidst acres of car parking.

Labour won't meet those targets even if it is their deepest desire, simple fact is there aren't enough construction workers nor the supply of building materials. The problem is exacerbated by the fact we are over the 50% mark for people who take more from the state than they give. For those people voting for more is a no brainer.

As many might have noted I tend rightwards . However I do believe there should be a safety net, free education to 18 and a health service which is free at point of use.

I also believe though that the state does too much and we should trim back what we do. I would rather the state did less but funded it properly than it tries to do too much and half arses everything.

For starters I would do a clawback on state pensions, every 5£ over say 5k private pension should mean 1£ off your state pension

NI on pensions

A lifetime health care costs cap with an insurance based top off

As examples

The problem with doing that with state pensions is that it discourages saving for your pension: why bother putting money away if it just gets clawed back?

And the UK's savings rate is already low by international standards.

that is why I set the clawback to only occur after 5k and then at a 1 in 5 ratio

currently you get state pension + 10k, after you get state + 9k is losing 1k enough to deter saving?

That's still an incremental 20% take rate. And don't forget, you are already paying income tax on that pension.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Rishi is using my lines.

Nigel Farage is a Putin appeaser, says Sunak

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/rishi-sunak-interview-election-conservatives-nigel-farage/

Well, at least he's going for it, they've been afraid to swing at Farage much.

I fear it will not be very effective, hwoever, since even if it works a little, will those people go back toward Sunak? They have other options now.

Pagan2 said:

Leon said:

Actually, this is a good point. If Farage is “political Marmite”, what was Hitler?

For me he was “political Nutella”. Personally, I can’t stand Nutella, but a lot of people like it, especially Germans

vegemite surely as he was a vegetarian

Leon said:

Cleitophon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Cleitophon said:

Last week it was pro russia appeasement and groveling for Putin, this week it is full on hard nazi style racism and homophobia from main people within reform caught on C4 news hidden camera. I was very disturbed by plans to turn the police into paramilitary, hoping for attacks on Bradford, whating for soldiers to shoot at boats in the channel, references to gassing ethnic minorities... reform is what you get when nazism rebrands itself and puts on a suit. Dear me.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

I'd be curious if @state_go_away could watch that and repeat his assertion that me calling Reform a "nasty party of racist bigots" was in his words "hysterical".

There is nothing "hysterical" about calling all that a nasty party of racist bigots, if anything I was far too polite.

They are straight up nazis is suits...

They’re nowhere NEAR as well dressed as the Nazis

Say what you like about the Nazis, and they are certainly political “Marmite”, and a lot of people dislike them, and they’re never going to be everyone’s “cup of tea“, but they were always snappy dressers. Hugo Boss did not strive in vain

Pagan2 said:

Carnyx said:

Pagan2 said:

Leon said:

Actually, this is a good point. If Farage is “political Marmite”, what was Hitler?

For me he was “political Nutella”. Personally, I can’t stand Nutella, but a lot of people like it, especially Germans

vegemite surely as he was a vegetarian

Er, Marmite is vegan. You're perhaps thinking of Bovril. Invented just down the road from Roslin CHapel of Da Vinci infamy BTW.

Marmite is not vegan its a yeast extract and yeast there is a debate about if its animal, plant or fungus

dixiedean said:

To expand the conversation on from brickies, part of the issue is the gutting of FE and the need for any courses to run at a profit.
Regular readers will be aware of my pointing out the plight of teaching assistants. Paid at the same rate as cleaners.
Plenty of my colleagues would love to be trained up to fill the specialist support roles in education which are desperately needed, and impossible to fill. Therapies, OT, trauma counselling and the like.
But they are asked to shell out thousands to qualify on a basically minimum wage (it's over a grand for a level three counselling course. A year of evening and weekend study when you're doing an incredibly stressful full time job in an SEN school. And if you have your own SEN kids, as most of them do...And you're still one level below being qualified for a role which won't result in that much of a pay rise anyways).
No great surprise the roles remain unfilled.

Andy_JS said:

Watching Gareth Jenkins today, you actually feel slightly sorry for him. He comes across as a rather sympathetic and naive figure.

eek said:

This time next week we have the exit poll

algarkirk said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Tweedledee said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

"Gareth Jenkins Day 3: Criminally Stupid or Holy Fool?
Nick Wallis"

https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/gareth-jenkins-day-3-criminal-stupidity-or-helpful-fool/

F***ing Hell, what a mess!

The only chance he has of staying out of jail, is throwing the whole PO management under the bus.

I don’t think that will help - it may have done on Tuesday but yesterday and today was Jenkins being destroyed email by email

No, he was bang to rights well before his appearance before the Inquiry. Simply giving false testimony as an expert witness would be enough to get you on a perjury charge. Even the Plod have noticed this and have interviewed him as a suspect. The only reason he hasn't been charged is because they have been waiting for the Inquiry to conclude. In his testimony too he has perjured himself again numerous times, so it's hard to see why the police would not charge him as he walks out of the hearing tomorrow afternoon. It's a very simple nick if they want it.

He could have turned King's evidence of course. He may yet do that when he is charged. (i think it is when, not if.) He may be a bit more forthcoming in front of a judge and jury. He was plainly being used as a Patsy, albeit a willing one. He could get quite a lot off his sentence if he were to identify more clearly who exactly was playing him. However, so far his strategy has been to hide what he thought he could get away with.

it hasn't worked very well, so maybe it's time for him to try a different approach.

This is the Milgram experiment but for real. I am pretty sure many of the perps had private misgivings but thought they had to go along with the instructions of the grown ups.

That's very perceptive.

It may well go a long way towards explaining Jenkins' behaviour, and indeed many others. There are some however who appear to have been plainly cynical if not malicious. Off the top of my head I would cite Alice Perkins and John Scott. Numerous lawyers, in-house and external (some very senior), fit the bill. Vennells is probably borderline - more of an overpromoted middle-manager who was intoxicated by landing the top job and blinkered herself to the ugly reality of what was going on in the firm.

At the end of the day though, what they all did was wrong and they should all be charged. It will be a massively difficult and a hit-or-miss process but if it is not done it gives the green light to far too much casual misconduct in the workplace, and disregard for consequences.

Expert witnesses know perfectly well that their duty is to the court and the truth, and not to the prosecution or defence. The criminal system cannot survive without this discipline.

Pagan2 said:

Carnyx said:

Pagan2 said:

Leon said:

Actually, this is a good point. If Farage is “political Marmite”, what was Hitler?

For me he was “political Nutella”. Personally, I can’t stand Nutella, but a lot of people like it, especially Germans

vegemite surely as he was a vegetarian

Er, Marmite is vegan. You're perhaps thinking of Bovril. Invented just down the road from Roslin CHapel of Da Vinci infamy BTW.

Marmite is not vegan its a yeast extract and yeast there is a debate about if its animal, plant or fungus

turbotubbs said:

Andy_JS said:

Watching Gareth Jenkins today, you actually feel slightly sorry for him. He comes across as a rather sympathetic and naive figure.

How much of that is the act desperately trying to save his neck?

MattW said:

Sandpit said:

Pagan2 said:

dixiedean said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Sandpit said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

.

Pagan2 said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Pagan2 said:

pigeon said:

Pagan2 said:

algarkirk said:

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

Question - what is the difference between "socialist government" and the Conservatives?

Punative taxes to record levels? Tick
Wasting billions on crap public services? Tick
Open door migration letting anyone in? Tick
Nanny state nonsense about what we eat and smoke? Tick

People don't fear "socialist government" or any of the idiotic threats Sunak and the press team are making, because we live that every day already.

The Overton window is so narrow there is almost nothing substantive to discuss. Once you have a welfare state, free state education, NHS, industrial policy, consumer protection, regulation about everything, and a few other things a social democrat state with highly regulated capitalism is the only option. State managed expenditure has increased every year and this will continue. It is unavoidable.

The left have one further option - this + socialist state control of all commerce too. No serious right wing option has emerged with a working model in Europe yet. This is one of the most remarkable and underestimated facts of political policy. The Conservative party's two biggest fails since the war are: Lack of European statecraft, leading to the disaster of Brexit; and the failure to practice conservatism in any respects at all.

Not something I advocate by any means just an observation on all governements of the past

Wars used to cull the poor, now we no longer really have mass casualty wars its a new problem for governements of all stripes to have a burgeoning underclass and they have no idea how to deal with it

More broadly we have a terrible problem with dependency, chiefly due to a combination of low paid employment and ridiculous housing costs (meaning that many working people end up reliant on social security) and vast numbers of pensioners. The situation is theoretically recoverable, but some of the measures required - especially millions of houses and attendant infrastructure, and requiring people to work until 70 or possibly slightly beyond that - are so unpopular that they'll probably never get done. I'll certainly be surprised in a good way of Labour manages to meet its building commitments, and astonished if the houses are decent rather than shoddily constructed little identikit rabbit hutches marooned amidst acres of car parking.

Labour won't meet those targets even if it is their deepest desire, simple fact is there aren't enough construction workers nor the supply of building materials. The problem is exacerbated by the fact we are over the 50% mark for people who take more from the state than they give. For those people voting for more is a no brainer.

As many might have noted I tend rightwards . However I do believe there should be a safety net, free education to 18 and a health service which is free at point of use.

I also believe though that the state does too much and we should trim back what we do. I would rather the state did less but funded it properly than it tries to do too much and half arses everything.

For starters I would do a clawback on state pensions, every 5£ over say 5k private pension should mean 1£ off your state pension

NI on pensions

A lifetime health care costs cap with an insurance based top off

As examples

There is no shortage of skilled tradies in this country who could be building homes if they were easily able to do so without planning restrictions.

Sorry but there is, firms are poaching workers off each other because they can't get enough for example brickies
and yes because we don't train enough

Firms poaching off each other is the free market in action.

Nobody has a divine right to minimum wage labour.

Maybe the builders can hire more apprentices, instead of complaining about a lack of skilled workers or asking government for more immigrants.

Just Googled bricklaying apprenticeships and I see some being advertised . . . with a wage of £5.28 per hour.

My sympathies for those who can't find employees at £5.28 per hour.

Presumably they’re looking for 16-year-olds with no bricklaying skills, in which case that’s not too bad. But after a couple of years, they’ll be getting £15-£20 as bricklayers?

You'd think so, but no, this is for 19 year old apprentices with 2 A levels and 5+ GCSEs including Maths and English.

Absolutely no sympathies for anyone struggling to recruit. Increase your pay to a rate that fills your vacancies, its not like you need a 7 year course before you can start laying your first brick.

My Dad did a seven year bricklaying apprenticeship.

I think you underestimate the skills that go into most "craft" skills.....laying your first brick is simple, putting up a house wall that will still be standing in 40 years is quite another. For example I have done a lot of diy that involved a little plastering, probably several months experience all told....first time I plastered a whole wall looked good and smooth in the next morning it had all fallen off the wall

Plastering is one of those dark arts.

Electrics, plumbing, no problem. But plastering, hell no.

Bits of plastering are fine. But for a lot of it you need SHOULDERS - and ideally several industrial dehumidifiers.

One thing that is underestimated is paint spraying - I have an airless paint sprayer (it's on its own trolley) which was about £800, and you can do a whole house 2 coats in a day - once you have spent a day masking it up. It runs through paint at a ferocious rate.

It affects the order of refurb, but it is always possible to double or halve the amount of work or the price of *any* job by careful thought.

kle4 said:

eek said:

This time next week we have the exit poll

How long until Rishi concedes the loss? He may not want to wait for his own declaration, since he might not win even there.

Nigelb said:

Serious LOL

Dick Van Dyke dismisses Biden age concerns: I’m 98, and ‘I’ve got all my marbles’
https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/4743743-dick-van-dyke-biden-age-trump-bernie-sanders/

Andy_JS said:

ITV News: Labour worried about a dozen seats with large Muslim electorates where they're concerned their majority may be slashed or even lost altogether.

Andy_JS said:

ITV News: Labour worried about a dozen seats with large Muslim electorates where they're concerned their majority may be slashed or even lost altogether.

Farooq said:

TimS said:

Farooq said:

Carnyx said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

The only problem with 10 years of socialist government is that it isn't 20 years of socialist government.

I know you are a natural conservative, but we aren't really that scary. We want a better society, where all can prosper. A nation at ease with itself. And, importantly to you, we are fundamentally Unionist. It is the SNP who have raised your taxes, not us!

Don't believe all of the nonsense being spewed out by Sunak and the children at CCHQ (I don't think you do); a Labour government, in the hands of a lawyer and a city insider, in the form of Starmer and Reeves, isn't going to do anything madcap. And, with a "super-majority", they can ignore the lefty fringe on the back benches. Twenty rebels? So what?

You should also be contented in the demise of the SNP, something to be repeated in the next Holyrood elections, I suspect.

The conservatives will regroup. It will take a decade, but a sensible centre-right alternative to Labour will re-emerge. The Tories won't be controlled by Farage; perhaps by Priti or Suella in the short term, but common sense will prevail. You'll get your party back.

Much in that I agree with. Particularly the breaking of the SNP monopoly in Scotland. I also agree Starmer and Reeves are no Corbyn and Macdonald. I expect quite centrist policies from them.

I also think the Tories are intellectually exhausted and need a break. But you can still have too much of a good thing!

"monopoly"

As a good Unionist, you should be looking at Westminster as a whole. As for Holyrood, if this is a monopoly, what happ[ens when it isn't a minority administration, I wonder?

Anyone who thinks it a monopoly hasn't got a clue. It's just a person trying to scrabble around for something bad to say because they got the wrong result. Sorry, but it's an operation with diminishing returns to complain about one party doing well because they're popular. If there one thing to connect four opposition parties it's that they haven't been able to get over losing so many elections in a row.

Isn’t Scotland simply the maths of one party on one side of a political divide and multiple parties on the other. Something which gives extreme results in FPTP but is also helpful in PR as coalitions are easier.

The question is whether that’s a stable equilibrium. The Conservatives have benefited from this pattern in England and Wales since Brexit and arguably for much of the post-war period, but Reform potentially disrupts it. So far Alba and the Scottish Greens haven’t really disrupted the SNP hegemony but will someone eventually? In this social media era I think it’s more likely than not.

We could call this Zuma’s law. The tendency that if one party enjoys control of one half of a political divide, it will eventually face a challenger on its own side. Zuma’s law because eventually, after a few decades of ANC rule, its control of black majority votes in S Africa is starting to fracture.

Not if the polling is to be believed. There was considerable movement from Labour to SNP in 2015, and now some of that looks like it's washing back.

My take is that it's a die-hard anti-Tory vote that has seen the SNP as the best anti-Tory vehicle and is now divided between SNP and Labour as the best vehicle.

It looks likely that the votes for indy parties will come in well under the support that indy has. This is only a surprise if you think Scottish votes are motivated only by for/against indy.

Tim_in_Ruislip said:

I think Oborne's point on Levido is a good one;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TADeOmCVo_s

approx 26'

His binaries/wedge politics, that work so well in Australia, don't translate.

Dunno why the British right insist on outsourcing their campaigns to foreigners who don't have our countries best interests at heart.

Andy_JS said:

Has anyone read the manifestos? Just realised that I haven't, and normally I do. Standards are slipping. 😊

Casino_Royale said:

Tim_in_Ruislip said:

Also, the way the Levido directly fucked Sunak by publicly briefing that he disagreed with the date was astonishing.

Well, he was right, wasn't he?

Almost no-one thought it was a good idea to go now, except Sunak.

He makes shit decisions.

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

highwayparadise306 said:

kle4 said:

Farooq said:

Tweedledee said:

Farooq said:

highwayparadise306 said:

Farooq said:

Pagan2 said:

Farooq said:

kle4 said:

Despite talking about Afro-Eurasia, I'd spring for five myself. But I'm not getting into submerged continents or microcontinents.

Though what hapened to Oceania? When I was at school they told us to use that instead of Australasia.

Noncontentious.

It's six: Eurasia, Africa, Oceania, America, Antarctica, Yorkshire.

Seven you forgot cornwall

Oh yes. The continent with the highest density of bakeries on the planet.

Never liked the pasties.

It's not the pasties.

It's because everyone from Cornwall is really into bread.

Difficult crowd here

I actually get a lot of satisfaction from slipping a joke past people. 0 likes is better than 10 for this kind of thing.

Not me, I'm a slave to the likes. How else will I have self worth?

Really. Are you serious?

That’s ridiculous. I can sometimes go several hours without checking my like to comment ratio.

If I don't get 3 or 4 likes within 5 minutes of posting a comment, I delete it.

Got to maximize that ratio.

If I’m not spontaneously mentioned every six minutes on PB by people who strenuously claim to ignore me and my comments, then I go into an existential panic

However, this has not happened yet - as I am always mentioned by these people who apparently pay no heed to my remarks

Leon said:

Pagan2 said:

Leon said:

Actually, this is a good point. If Farage is “political Marmite”, what was Hitler?

For me he was “political Nutella”. Personally, I can’t stand Nutella, but a lot of people like it, especially Germans

vegemite surely as he was a vegetarian

Farage is a veggie?!

I’m talking about Hitler being political Nutella. And I think that’s pretty spot on, and if any Nutella execs are reading, they can have this for free, and swap it around for their advertising

“Nutella, it’s the Hitler of spreads! Not for everyone, but Germans like it”

Roger said:

Leon said:

Pagan2 said:

Leon said:

Actually, this is a good point. If Farage is “political Marmite”, what was Hitler?

For me he was “political Nutella”. Personally, I can’t stand Nutella, but a lot of people like it, especially Germans

vegemite surely as he was a vegetarian

Farage is a veggie?!

I’m talking about Hitler being political Nutella. And I think that’s pretty spot on, and if any Nutella execs are reading, they can have this for free, and swap it around for their advertising

“Nutella, it’s the Hitler of spreads! Not for everyone, but Germans like it”

Here's one I shot earlier for Germany. Unfortunately my model is not available at the moment!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP-FqtPFSV0

MattW said:

Leon said:

Cleitophon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Cleitophon said:

Last week it was pro russia appeasement and groveling for Putin, this week it is full on hard nazi style racism and homophobia from main people within reform caught on C4 news hidden camera. I was very disturbed by plans to turn the police into paramilitary, hoping for attacks on Bradford, whating for soldiers to shoot at boats in the channel, references to gassing ethnic minorities... reform is what you get when nazism rebrands itself and puts on a suit. Dear me.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

I'd be curious if @state_go_away could watch that and repeat his assertion that me calling Reform a "nasty party of racist bigots" was in his words "hysterical".

There is nothing "hysterical" about calling all that a nasty party of racist bigots, if anything I was far too polite.

They are straight up nazis is suits...

They’re nowhere NEAR as well dressed as the Nazis

Say what you like about the Nazis, and they are certainly political “Marmite”, and a lot of people dislike them, and they’re never going to be everyone’s “cup of tea“, but they were always snappy dressers. Hugo Boss did not strive in vain

The thing I never understand with Nazis is the sideways deflating-balloon trousers, as if they were pretending they had pumped-up bubble-butts and thunder-thighs before these became fashionable.

Do we have any fashion historians here? I'm sure it's related to some historical gesture from the past.

turbotubbs said:

Andy_JS said:

ITV News: Labour worried about a dozen seats with large Muslim electorates where they're concerned their majority may be slashed or even lost altogether.

Although Gaza has been much less in the news during the campaign, which may help.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Rishi is using my lines.

Nigel Farage is a Putin appeaser, says Sunak

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/rishi-sunak-interview-election-conservatives-nigel-farage/

kle4 said:

Andy_JS said:

Has anyone read the manifestos? Just realised that I haven't, and normally I do. Standards are slipping. 😊

I would be happy to repost my summaries of the LD, Tory, Green, SDP, Labour, and Reform manifestos.

However, they do run to over 10000 words.

Theuniondivvie said:

Leon said:

Pagan2 said:

Leon said:

Actually, this is a good point. If Farage is “political Marmite”, what was Hitler?

For me he was “political Nutella”. Personally, I can’t stand Nutella, but a lot of people like it, especially Germans

vegemite surely as he was a vegetarian

Farage is a veggie?!

I’m talking about Hitler being political Nutella. And I think that’s pretty spot on, and if any Nutella execs are reading, they can have this for free, and swap it around for their advertising

“Nutella, it’s the Hitler of spreads! Not for everyone, but Germans like it”

And various members of the British aristocracy.

‘Unity will not put anything in her mouth unless it’s slathered with it!’

Leon said:

Pagan2 said:

Leon said:

Actually, this is a good point. If Farage is “political Marmite”, what was Hitler?

For me he was “political Nutella”. Personally, I can’t stand Nutella, but a lot of people like it, especially Germans

vegemite surely as he was a vegetarian

Farage is a veggie?!

I’m talking about Hitler being political Nutella. And I think that’s pretty spot on, and if any Nutella execs are reading, they can have this for free, and swap it around for their advertising

“Nutella, it’s the Hitler of spreads! Not for everyone, but Germans like it”

Leon said:

kle4 said:

Andy_JS said:

Has anyone read the manifestos? Just realised that I haven't, and normally I do. Standards are slipping. 😊

I would be happy to repost my summaries of the LD, Tory, Green, SDP, Labour, and Reform manifestos.

However, they do run to over 10000 words.

You could feed it to one of those machines and get a 500 word summary in 3 seconds

MattW said:

MattW said:

Leon said:

Cleitophon said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Cleitophon said:

Last week it was pro russia appeasement and groveling for Putin, this week it is full on hard nazi style racism and homophobia from main people within reform caught on C4 news hidden camera. I was very disturbed by plans to turn the police into paramilitary, hoping for attacks on Bradford, whating for soldiers to shoot at boats in the channel, references to gassing ethnic minorities... reform is what you get when nazism rebrands itself and puts on a suit. Dear me.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

I'd be curious if @state_go_away could watch that and repeat his assertion that me calling Reform a "nasty party of racist bigots" was in his words "hysterical".

There is nothing "hysterical" about calling all that a nasty party of racist bigots, if anything I was far too polite.

They are straight up nazis is suits...

They’re nowhere NEAR as well dressed as the Nazis

Say what you like about the Nazis, and they are certainly political “Marmite”, and a lot of people dislike them, and they’re never going to be everyone’s “cup of tea“, but they were always snappy dressers. Hugo Boss did not strive in vain

The thing I never understand with Nazis is the sideways deflating-balloon trousers, as if they were pretending they had pumped-up bubble-butts and thunder-thighs before these became fashionable.

Do we have any fashion historians here? I'm sure it's related to some historical gesture from the past.

Checking - early jodhpurs, perhaps, since they liked to look back to the Prussian Officer tradition and pretend they had inherited it, rather than being thugs? For Nazis, just like all other symbolic stuff they pinched from elsewhere.

Andy_JS said:

ITV News: Labour worried about a dozen seats with large Muslim electorates where they're concerned their majority may be slashed or even lost altogether.

pigeon said:

Farooq said:

TimS said:

Farooq said:

Carnyx said:

DavidL said:

SandyRentool said:

DavidL said:

I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

The only problem with 10 years of socialist government is that it isn't 20 years of socialist government.

I know you are a natural conservative, but we aren't really that scary. We want a better society, where all can prosper. A nation at ease with itself. And, importantly to you, we are fundamentally Unionist. It is the SNP who have raised your taxes, not us!

Don't believe all of the nonsense being spewed out by Sunak and the children at CCHQ (I don't think you do); a Labour government, in the hands of a lawyer and a city insider, in the form of Starmer and Reeves, isn't going to do anything madcap. And, with a "super-majority", they can ignore the lefty fringe on the back benches. Twenty rebels? So what?

You should also be contented in the demise of the SNP, something to be repeated in the next Holyrood elections, I suspect.

The conservatives will regroup. It will take a decade, but a sensible centre-right alternative to Labour will re-emerge. The Tories won't be controlled by Farage; perhaps by Priti or Suella in the short term, but common sense will prevail. You'll get your party back.

Much in that I agree with. Particularly the breaking of the SNP monopoly in Scotland. I also agree Starmer and Reeves are no Corbyn and Macdonald. I expect quite centrist policies from them.

I also think the Tories are intellectually exhausted and need a break. But you can still have too much of a good thing!

"monopoly"

As a good Unionist, you should be looking at Westminster as a whole. As for Holyrood, if this is a monopoly, what happ[ens when it isn't a minority administration, I wonder?

Anyone who thinks it a monopoly hasn't got a clue. It's just a person trying to scrabble around for something bad to say because they got the wrong result. Sorry, but it's an operation with diminishing returns to complain about one party doing well because they're popular. If there one thing to connect four opposition parties it's that they haven't been able to get over losing so many elections in a row.

Isn’t Scotland simply the maths of one party on one side of a political divide and multiple parties on the other. Something which gives extreme results in FPTP but is also helpful in PR as coalitions are easier.

The question is whether that’s a stable equilibrium. The Conservatives have benefited from this pattern in England and Wales since Brexit and arguably for much of the post-war period, but Reform potentially disrupts it. So far Alba and the Scottish Greens haven’t really disrupted the SNP hegemony but will someone eventually? In this social media era I think it’s more likely than not.

We could call this Zuma’s law. The tendency that if one party enjoys control of one half of a political divide, it will eventually face a challenger on its own side. Zuma’s law because eventually, after a few decades of ANC rule, its control of black majority votes in S Africa is starting to fracture.

Not if the polling is to be believed. There was considerable movement from Labour to SNP in 2015, and now some of that looks like it's washing back.

My take is that it's a die-hard anti-Tory vote that has seen the SNP as the best anti-Tory vehicle and is now divided between SNP and Labour as the best vehicle.

It looks likely that the votes for indy parties will come in well under the support that indy has. This is only a surprise if you think Scottish votes are motivated only by for/against indy.

Makes you wonder what might happen if the anti-Tory motive is removed, i.e. the Conservative Party sinks, doesn't recover and is replaced by something else that Scots might find more palatable?