Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?
A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.
Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.
“I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”
In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”
He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.
Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”
I bet Leon and Donald Trump have experienced the same problem as Ms Paltrow's guest.
Vile smears. Don't wear white before Labor Day
It's not all shits and giggles for New York's upper crust as they head to the Hamptons for the summer season. It's mostly just shits.
For the last few weeks the Hamptons set's favourite piece of gossip to text to each other has regarded a scandal at the home of Gwyneth Paltrow. The story goes that a recent houseguest of Gwynnie's catastrophically shat themselves in bed while staying there, then fled back to the city before they had to face the music.
Gwynnie's guest won't be the only shitter in the Hamptons this year. Ozempic-induced diarrhoea is becoming a very hot topic of conversation between hosts there - because so many of their guests are using it. So expect laundrettes to be fully booked from July 4th.
Burgessian said: » show previous quotes This is not a good time to be in government! (As Sir Keir may fairly soon find out). So far as I can see only Meloni seems to be bucking trend in the major countries - apart from Biden who has Trump to thank for that.
SSI - Has something to do with Trudeau the Younger's problem, as with Sunak.
HOWEVER think two other factors are at play in the Great White North:
> Justin Trudeau has been PM since 2015, thus significant fatigue with him AND his Liberal Party; similar to UK voter fatigue with CUP.
> Pierre Poilievre, Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, is WAY more of an electoral asset than his predecessor who lost last election to JT; similar to Starmer compared to Corbyn.
Just saw Corbyn in Islington canvassing the old fashioned way and getting a lot of friendly reception from crowds. Hard to escape the feeling that he’ll win here based on this extremely imprecise sample.
Despite my Islington friend saying the opposite, and more lately sitting on the fence, that’s my feeling.
Voters, especially those not generally engaged in politics in between elections, like having someone well-known represent them, as by extension it puts their little patch of the country on the map. Provided said person doesn’t go over the top and give their seat a bad name, why wouldn’t they vote for Corbyn, when a big Labour win appears nailed on already? There’s a long history of it, going back to at least Dick Taverne in Lincoln.
What our Jeremy may not have realised is that, once re-elected, he’ll be sitting on benches surrounded by Tories, LibDems, DUP and Reformers.
My dad once tried to convince me that P*** was no different to Brit (indeed, I could use it without a filter in most publications), but he did accept that people he had referred to by the term when at school he did not know exactly where they came from*, which undercut his point a little.
*other than Slough.
And don't get me started on "subcontinent", what on earth makes Europe a continent and India only sub?
Because it isn't a continent?
*Apologies if you were being deliberately thick for comic effect.
It's not a subcontinent either, it's part of Asia just as Europe is. Are you doing some meta thing here, being deliberately thick about being deliberately thick?
Oh OK, we're not supposed to use the accepted definitions of continents because it upsets you. Do let me know if there's any other completely non-contentious geographical terms you've got sand in your fanny about.
Actually continent is a bit of a contentious term, though not for any reason of cultural sensitivity, just that it is geographically imprecise. Lots of people online would like to include Zealandia, others would not count North or South America as separate. That's why 'how many continents are there' is a popular video topic.
Continental plates don't work either because there's too many of the buggers.
I'm a fan of categorisation by bio-geographic realm.
I'd like a poll mapping liking Donald Trump to UK Voting Intention. I'd be willing to stake a considerable sum that it's a close to perfect correlation with Reform.
Just saw Corbyn in Islington canvassing the old fashioned way and getting a lot of friendly reception from crowds. Hard to escape the feeling that he’ll win here based on this extremely imprecise sample.
If we learned anything from 2019 it is that being able to draw a crowd, 'old fashioned' campaigning, doesn't mean a thing if a lot of other things are against you.
He should have a friendlier environment in Islington, but winning will still be hard.
I suspect it is much more likely to be a Corbyn win - cuz the polls. "Labour's going to have a landslide, they won't miss one seat...Get him back in."
O/T (completely bonkers more like) Would it be possible to introduce a higher employer's national insurance rate for immigrant workers. It'd make no immediate difference to the sainted NHS (receipts out=receipts in), but would encourage "British Jobs for British Workers". The NHS would also see they could optimize their budget if they went domestic. We have a higher tax rate for graduates (although it's not called that) so it's not completely off the wall? You'd want a nice 5 year tapered introduction so employers could train up domestic staff obviously. A Brexit benefit?
There already is an additional surcharge, not part of employer NI but to the same effect.
noneoftheabove is a genius - there is a charge for immigrant labour that is not covered by the pledge "Labour will not increase income tax, national insurance or VAT".
I'd have thought multiplying this by 10 (it's currently 3%) would be seriously interesting (in social if not fiscal terms).
Is there any limit to government bringing in a "tax" but calling it a charge rather than (IT, NI, VAT)? eg the "Being a High Earner" charge? "Buying lots of stuff" charge?
Just saw Corbyn in Islington canvassing the old fashioned way and getting a lot of friendly reception from crowds. Hard to escape the feeling that he’ll win here based on this extremely imprecise sample.
Despite my Islington friend saying the opposite, and more lately sitting on the fence, that’s my feeling.
Voters, especially those not generally engaged in politics in between elections, like having someone well-known represent them, as by extension it puts their little patch of the country on the map. Provided said person doesn’t go over the top and give their seat a bad name, why wouldn’t they vote for Corbyn, when a big Labour win appears nailed on already? There’s a long history of it, going back to at least Dick Taverne in Lincoln.
What our Jeremy may not have realised is that, once re-elected, he’ll be sitting on benches surrounded by Tories, LibDems, DUP and Reformers.
Didn't he spend most of the Blair years being in the lobbies with them anyway?
Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?
A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.
Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.
“I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”
In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”
He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.
Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”
It’s hard to overlook his complete ignorance of the sub continent but let’s face it, there is no beginning to his ignorance. It is infinite.
A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin and racism.
Yet Sean is voting Labour.
He says he is voting Labour. Will he though?
Didn’t he have a Damascene conversion on the way to the Brexit polling station in 2016?
His understanding is so shallow that he’s essentially a tiny bit of random irrelevance, while the rest of us ponder the big issues facing our country in coming years, and at least try to engage with them at a level higher than does the typical ten-year old.
Just saw Corbyn in Islington canvassing the old fashioned way and getting a lot of friendly reception from crowds. Hard to escape the feeling that he’ll win here based on this extremely imprecise sample.
Despite my Islington friend saying the opposite, and more lately sitting on the fence, that’s my feeling.
Voters, especially those not generally engaged in politics in between elections, like having someone well-known represent them, as by extension it puts their little patch of the country on the map. Provided said person doesn’t go over the top and give their seat a bad name, why wouldn’t they vote for Corbyn, when a big Labour win appears nailed on already? There’s a long history of it, going back to at least Dick Taverne in Lincoln.
What our Jeremy may not have realised is that, once re-elected, he’ll be sitting on benches surrounded by Tories, LibDems, DUP and Reformers.
Surely, Labour are going to need two thirds of the seats opposite as well?
I bet Leon and Donald Trump have experienced the same problem as Ms Paltrow's guest.
Vile smears. Don't wear white before Labor Day
It's not all shits and giggles for New York's upper crust as they head to the Hamptons for the summer season. It's mostly just shits.
For the last few weeks the Hamptons set's favourite piece of gossip to text to each other has regarded a scandal at the home of Gwyneth Paltrow. The story goes that a recent houseguest of Gwynnie's catastrophically shat themselves in bed while staying there, then fled back to the city before they had to face the music.
Gwynnie's guest won't be the only shitter in the Hamptons this year. Ozempic-induced diarrhoea is becoming a very hot topic of conversation between hosts there - because so many of their guests are using it. So expect laundrettes to be fully booked from July 4th.
From another PB.
Things have really reached the bottom.
All very Trainspotting. And reminiscewnt of Billy Connolly's story about eating Mars Bars in a hotel bed.
I'd like a poll mapping liking Donald Trump to UK Voting Intention. I'd be willing to stake a considerable sum that it's a close to perfect correlation with Reform.
After November, Trump can spend all that time on his hands building a golf course in Clacton.
Just saw Corbyn in Islington canvassing the old fashioned way and getting a lot of friendly reception from crowds. Hard to escape the feeling that he’ll win here based on this extremely imprecise sample.
Despite my Islington friend saying the opposite, and more lately sitting on the fence, that’s my feeling.
Voters, especially those not generally engaged in politics in between elections, like having someone well-known represent them, as by extension it puts their little patch of the country on the map. Provided said person doesn’t go over the top and give their seat a bad name, why wouldn’t they vote for Corbyn, when a big Labour win appears nailed on already? There’s a long history of it, going back to at least Dick Taverne in Lincoln.
What our Jeremy may not have realised is that, once re-elected, he’ll be sitting on benches surrounded by Tories, LibDems, DUP and Reformers.
Surely, Labour are going to need two thirds of the seats opposite as well?
The advantage of a Holyrood style design. Everyone just moves to and fro as needed.
I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.
You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
I think the video revealed by channel 4 today will give many pause for thought.......it's not pretty. I say this as someone who wanted them as the main opposition.
I sincerely apologise to all muppets. Stating you were the equivalent of Reform voters was grossly unfair.
I'm afraid they are our Deplorables - unPC though it is to say it.
You critisise the politicians, you don’t critise the voters. Ask Hillary Clinton.
But this is me. I'm not running for anything. I can tell the truth.
We were interested to see Nigel Farage hiring the devil's own law firm, Carter-Ruck, to respond to the Mail on Sunday's story that claimed Farage was personally "infected with Putinism".
While Farage doesn't look out of place on Carter-Ruck's client list (The Church Of Scientology, Simon Cowell, Chelsea FC, Qatar, etc) we're not sure they're the best firm to hire if you're looking to scrub the taint of Putin.
Not least because, Carter-Ruck head honcho Nigel Tait was specifically named in the House of Commons in 2022 as one of the "amoral" lawyers in the profession aiding Russian interests in the UK courts at the expense of British citizens.
What is the source of Farange-Reform funding?????
Pretty obvious that NF himself doesn't have more than a medium-sized pot to piss in. In theory the libel suit gives him a shot at refueling his personal exchequer. PLUS doubling-down on his rhetoric, which IMHO is most pleasing to yet another potential source of sustenance = Trump.
Despite talking about Afro-Eurasia, I'd spring for five myself. But I'm not getting into submerged continents or microcontinents. Though what hapened to Oceania? When I was at school they told us to use that instead of Australasia.
People owe David Cameron an apology, he nailed it when he said
Ukip is sort of a bunch of ... fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists mostly
Not closet racists. Lots of them are very open about it.
Which the Tories of course, know and understand, at a visceral level. Which is the real explanation as to why Conservatives haven’t attacked Reform as being extremist racists - they know all too well that this would actually increase Reform’s appeal to many of their own base.
O/T (completely bonkers more like) Would it be possible to introduce a higher employer's national insurance rate for immigrant workers. It'd make no immediate difference to the sainted NHS (receipts out=receipts in), but would encourage "British Jobs for British Workers". The NHS would also see they could optimize their budget if they went domestic. We have a higher tax rate for graduates (although it's not called that) so it's not completely off the wall? You'd want a nice 5 year tapered introduction so employers could train up domestic staff obviously. A Brexit benefit?
There already is an additional surcharge, not part of employer NI but to the same effect.
noneoftheabove is a genius - there is a charge for immigrant labour that is not covered by the pledge "Labour will not increase income tax, national insurance or VAT".
I'd have thought multiplying this by 10 (it's currently 3%) would be seriously interesting (in social if not fiscal terms).
Is there any limit to government bringing in a "tax" but calling it a charge rather than (IT, NI, VAT)? eg the "Being a High Earner" charge? "Buying lots of stuff" charge?
Not a genius, just an employer. UK governments can, in the limit, do pretty much what they like. They are constrained by international treaties but can ultimately leave those as they please. Adding new charges on employment not particularly unusual.
I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.
You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
I think the video revealed by channel 4 today will give many pause for thought.......it's not pretty. I say this as someone who wanted them as the main opposition.
I sincerely apologise to all muppets. Stating you were the equivalent of Reform voters was grossly unfair.
I'm afraid they are our Deplorables - unPC though it is to say it.
You critisise the politicians, you don’t critise the voters. Ask Hillary Clinton.
But this is me. I'm not running for anything. I can tell the truth.
Besides, Hillary Clinton was completely right in what she said and its not why she lost.
She lost because she was an awful campaigner who totally ignored the electoral college and didn't do enough campaigning in the swing flyover states. She spent more time on the coast than in the states that would decide the election.
Biden didn't make the same mistake, so he won a much healthier electoral college vote.
Biden will concentrate on the key states again this year. He knows what he's doing in a way Hillary didn't, which is funny considering her husband's background as Governor of Arkansas and then some other job.
I'd like a poll mapping liking Donald Trump to UK Voting Intention. I'd be willing to stake a considerable sum that it's a close to perfect correlation with Reform.
After November, Trump can spend all that time on his hands building a golf course in Clacton.
After November, with a positive result, he will finally have to go to trial on serious charges. The documents case won't go anywhere as the judge has gutted it, but the others might.
Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?
A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.
Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.
“I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”
In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”
He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.
Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”
Just saw Corbyn in Islington canvassing the old fashioned way and getting a lot of friendly reception from crowds. Hard to escape the feeling that he’ll win here based on this extremely imprecise sample.
Despite my Islington friend saying the opposite, and more lately sitting on the fence, that’s my feeling.
Voters, especially those not generally engaged in politics in between elections, like having someone well-known represent them, as by extension it puts their little patch of the country on the map. Provided said person doesn’t go over the top and give their seat a bad name, why wouldn’t they vote for Corbyn, when a big Labour win appears nailed on already? There’s a long history of it, going back to at least Dick Taverne in Lincoln.
What our Jeremy may not have realised is that, once re-elected, he’ll be sitting on benches surrounded by Tories, LibDems, DUP and Reformers.
Didn't he spend most of the Blair years being in the lobbies with them anyway?
Ah, but you see, they opposed the Labour government because they were bad people, whilst he opposed the Labour government because of principle.
Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?
A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.
Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.
“I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”
In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”
He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.
Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”
Just to note for anyone interested in forecasts who didn't see this one mentioned on an earlier thread, the latest UK-Elect forecast has now been released at https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240627ForecastUK.html. (UK-Elect has been one of the most accurate pre-election forecasts at several past elections.)
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 125, Liberal Democrat 50, SNP 17, Plaid Cymru 4, Reform UK 3, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240627ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?
A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.
Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.
“I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”
In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”
He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.
Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”
I'd like a poll mapping liking Donald Trump to UK Voting Intention. I'd be willing to stake a considerable sum that it's a close to perfect correlation with Reform.
After November, Trump can spend all that time on his hands building a golf course in Clacton.
Despite talking about Afro-Eurasia, I'd spring for five myself. But I'm not getting into submerged continents or microcontinents. Though what hapened to Oceania? When I was at school they told us to use that instead of Australasia.
Noncontentious.
Hang on, have these Aussies been cheating as usual and making us play a whole continent, when we are just a small island? If Rishi is re-elected I hope he declares England the winner of all Ashes series by law regardless of the facts on the ground.
My dad once tried to convince me that P*** was no different to Brit (indeed, I could use it without a filter in most publications), but he did accept that people he had referred to by the term when at school he did not know exactly where they came from*, which undercut his point a little.
*other than Slough.
And don't get me started on "subcontinent", what on earth makes Europe a continent and India only sub?
Because it isn't a continent?
*Apologies if you were being deliberately thick for comic effect.
It's not a subcontinent either, it's part of Asia just as Europe is. Are you doing some meta thing here, being deliberately thick about being deliberately thick?
Oh OK, we're not supposed to use the accepted definitions of continents because it upsets you. Do let me know if there's any other completely non-contentious geographical terms you've got sand in your fanny about.
It's just that my powers of cogitation exceed those of an amoeba, and I understand concepts as difficult as"historical accident." Europe is a continent because, and only because, Europeans were in charge of definitions. Here's us proper whitish Greek speaking Greeks, and there's some awful brown chaps whose speech sounds like the twittering of birds, living almost two days sailing away. Stands to reason that where we live is a completely different thing from where they live. And here's a legend about the supreme deity wanting to shag a cow which proves it. Checkmate.
My dad once tried to convince me that P*** was no different to Brit (indeed, I could use it without a filter in most publications), but he did accept that people he had referred to by the term when at school he did not know exactly where they came from*, which undercut his point a little.
*other than Slough.
And don't get me started on "subcontinent", what on earth makes Europe a continent and India only sub?
Because it isn't a continent?
*Apologies if you were being deliberately thick for comic effect.
It's not a subcontinent either, it's part of Asia just as Europe is. Are you doing some meta thing here, being deliberately thick about being deliberately thick?
Oh OK, we're not supposed to use the accepted definitions of continents because it upsets you. Do let me know if there's any other completely non-contentious geographical terms you've got sand in your fanny about.
The accepted definition is mostly just convention, though, rather than being a strictly objective set of criteria. And, obviously, a very Euro-centric definition that has Europe as a continent and India not.
Of course, it's a definition that's been in use for so long, that it's become convenient and "normal", and so changing it is troublesome and irksome. And, anyway, the definition is always going to be arbitrary, to some extent.
We were interested to see Nigel Farage hiring the devil's own law firm, Carter-Ruck, to respond to the Mail on Sunday's story that claimed Farage was personally "infected with Putinism".
While Farage doesn't look out of place on Carter-Ruck's client list (The Church Of Scientology, Simon Cowell, Chelsea FC, Qatar, etc) we're not sure they're the best firm to hire if you're looking to scrub the taint of Putin.
Not least because, Carter-Ruck head honcho Nigel Tait was specifically named in the House of Commons in 2022 as one of the "amoral" lawyers in the profession aiding Russian interests in the UK courts at the expense of British citizens.
What is the source of Farange-Reform funding?????
Pretty obvious that NF himself doesn't have more than a medium-sized pot to piss in. In theory the libel suit gives him a shot at refueling his personal exchequer. PLUS doubling-down on his rhetoric, which IMHO is most pleasing to yet another potential source of sustenance = Trump.
Presidential Debate tonight! Can Nige pay a flying visit.
I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.
You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
The only problem with 10 years of socialist government is that it isn't 20 years of socialist government.
I know you are a natural conservative, but we aren't really that scary. We want a better society, where all can prosper. A nation at ease with itself. And, importantly to you, we are fundamentally Unionist. It is the SNP who have raised your taxes, not us!
Don't believe all of the nonsense being spewed out by Sunak and the children at CCHQ (I don't think you do); a Labour government, in the hands of a lawyer and a city insider, in the form of Starmer and Reeves, isn't going to do anything madcap. And, with a "super-majority", they can ignore the lefty fringe on the back benches. Twenty rebels? So what?
You should also be contented in the demise of the SNP, something to be repeated in the next Holyrood elections, I suspect.
The conservatives will regroup. It will take a decade, but a sensible centre-right alternative to Labour will re-emerge. The Tories won't be controlled by Farage; perhaps by Priti or Suella in the short term, but common sense will prevail. You'll get your party back.
I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.
You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
So, you must be in favour of proportional representation? What you are complaining of is a feature of FPTP.
Just to note for anyone interested in forecasts who didn't see this one mentioned on an earlier thread, the latest UK-Elect forecast has now been released at https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240627ForecastUK.html. (UK-Elect has been one of the most accurate pre-election forecasts at several past elections.)
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 125, Liberal Democrat 50, SNP 17, Plaid Cymru 4, Reform UK 3, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240627ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
If the Tories land over 100 seats (as I expect), there are some significant betting opportunities available right now.
The last week is when swingback should kick in, assuming the Tories can avoid any further self immolation before next Thursday.
I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.
You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
Not sure why you're so irritated. Seeing as how it's been pretty obvious for months that Conservative Party was gonna get kicked to the curb at next general election, with Labour the only alternative government.
Reminds me of 1994, when voters in Spokane and rest of WA CD5 where told that they should keep on voting for Tom Foley for Congress because he was powerful Speaker of the US House. Well, turned out that even if Foley had been re-elected in his own district, he would NOT remain as Speaker because the Democrat's lost their long-standing majority to Newt Gingrich's Republicans.
Somehow the voters in WA CD5 sensed this, because they did NOT re-elect Foley. Which would have been pretty pointless for him AND for them.
Just to note for anyone interested in forecasts who didn't see this one mentioned on an earlier thread, the latest UK-Elect forecast has now been released at https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240627ForecastUK.html. (UK-Elect has been one of the most accurate pre-election forecasts at several past elections.)
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 125, Liberal Democrat 50, SNP 17, Plaid Cymru 4, Reform UK 3, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240627ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
I was noting my prediction down earlier today and except that I have SNP up a few and Lab down a few it is spookily similar. Maybe you could have saved yourself a lot of work and just asked me! Just me saying that your prediction model is clearly brilliant!
I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.
You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
I think the video revealed by channel 4 today will give many pause for thought.......it's not pretty. I say this as someone who wanted them as the main opposition.
I sincerely apologise to all muppets. Stating you were the equivalent of Reform voters was grossly unfair.
I'm afraid they are our Deplorables - unPC though it is to say it.
You critisise the politicians, you don’t critise the voters. Ask Hillary Clinton.
But this is me. I'm not running for anything. I can tell the truth.
Besides, Hillary Clinton was completely right in what she said and its not why she lost.
She lost because she was an awful campaigner who totally ignored the electoral college and didn't do enough campaigning in the swing flyover states. She spent more time on the coast than in the states that would decide the election.
Biden didn't make the same mistake, so he won a much healthier electoral college vote.
Biden will concentrate on the key states again this year. He knows what he's doing in a way Hillary didn't, which is funny considering her husband's background as Governor of Arkansas and then some other job.
Hard to say any single thing cost her the election (since it was so close) but let's just say it's a campaign she'd love to have back.
Despite talking about Afro-Eurasia, I'd spring for five myself. But I'm not getting into submerged continents or microcontinents. Though what hapened to Oceania? When I was at school they told us to use that instead of Australasia.
I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.
You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
Much as I don't enjoy defending Reform voters, I think the responsibility for that lies squarely with the Tory party. If you're right wing, committed to voting but have at least half a brain and therefore refuse to legitimise the ongoing farce that is the current Conservative government, what do you do?
Voting for Reform as a prospective party of government would deserve all the opprobrium available. But voting for Reform to lodge a protest against the Tories is sensible in my view, if you're that way inclined. It's equivalent to voting Green whilst Corbyn ran Labour.
I get your point about enabling a longer Labour government but again, that's the fault of the Tories for being so irredeemably, inexcusably shit.
Just saw Corbyn in Islington canvassing the old fashioned way and getting a lot of friendly reception from crowds. Hard to escape the feeling that he’ll win here based on this extremely imprecise sample.
Despite my Islington friend saying the opposite, and more lately sitting on the fence, that’s my feeling.
Voters, especially those not generally engaged in politics in between elections, like having someone well-known represent them, as by extension it puts their little patch of the country on the map. Provided said person doesn’t go over the top and give their seat a bad name, why wouldn’t they vote for Corbyn, when a big Labour win appears nailed on already? There’s a long history of it, going back to at least Dick Taverne in Lincoln.
What our Jeremy may not have realised is that, once re-elected, he’ll be sitting on benches surrounded by Tories, LibDems, DUP and Reformers.
Surely, Labour are going to need two thirds of the seats opposite as well?
There's only room for about 400-something MPs to sit down in the Commons chamber anyway. Labour might have so many MPs that they couldn't all find a seat even if they used both sides, and none of the opposition MPs were present.
How the hell do you do a MRP for a named individual??? Did they just poll Islington North?
The MRP has Corbyn doing 8pts better than the constituency poll conducted at the same time. This isn't a huge difference given margin of error.
Notable difference is that the constituency poll suggests Tories are voting for Labour to beat Corbyn, something MRPs cannot pick up.
It's worth noting that the Tories simply aren't campaigning in Islington North. Not so much as a single leaflet from them - we've even had two from Refuk!
Just saw Corbyn in Islington canvassing the old fashioned way and getting a lot of friendly reception from crowds. Hard to escape the feeling that he’ll win here based on this extremely imprecise sample.
Despite my Islington friend saying the opposite, and more lately sitting on the fence, that’s my feeling.
Voters, especially those not generally engaged in politics in between elections, like having someone well-known represent them, as by extension it puts their little patch of the country on the map. Provided said person doesn’t go over the top and give their seat a bad name, why wouldn’t they vote for Corbyn, when a big Labour win appears nailed on already? There’s a long history of it, going back to at least Dick Taverne in Lincoln.
What our Jeremy may not have realised is that, once re-elected, he’ll be sitting on benches surrounded by Tories, LibDems, DUP and Reformers.
Surely, Labour are going to need two thirds of the seats opposite as well?
There's only room for about 400-something MPs to sit down in the Commons chamber anyway. Labour might have so many MPs that they couldn't all find a seat even if they used both sides, and none of the opposition MPs were present.
I imagine a large number of newly elected Labour MPs will be told to go back to their constituencies, do casework and keep off twatter.
Just to note for anyone interested in forecasts who didn't see this one mentioned on an earlier thread, the latest UK-Elect forecast has now been released at https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240627ForecastUK.html. (UK-Elect has been one of the most accurate pre-election forecasts at several past elections.)
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 125, Liberal Democrat 50, SNP 17, Plaid Cymru 4, Reform UK 3, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240627ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
I was noting my prediction down earlier today and except that I have SNP up a few and Lab down a few it is spookily similar. Maybe you could have saved yourself a lot of work and just asked me! Just me saying that your prediction model is clearly brilliant!
Great minds think alike. And as well as them, so do we.
Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?
A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.
Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.
“I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”
In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”
He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.
Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”
It’s hard to overlook his complete ignorance of the sub continent but let’s face it, there is no beginning to his ignorance. It is infinite.
Sunak's family are originally from Gujranwala which is in Pakistan.
That reminds me of my past, knocking on doors in somewhere like Goodmayes, south Ilford, when after giving the usual introductory spiel, the voter would respond with some comment about the province or family connections or once the actual village from where the candidate’s family originated, to which for the completely ignorant white British canvasser there is absolutely no reply.
Just saw Corbyn in Islington canvassing the old fashioned way and getting a lot of friendly reception from crowds. Hard to escape the feeling that he’ll win here based on this extremely imprecise sample.
Despite my Islington friend saying the opposite, and more lately sitting on the fence, that’s my feeling.
Voters, especially those not generally engaged in politics in between elections, like having someone well-known represent them, as by extension it puts their little patch of the country on the map. Provided said person doesn’t go over the top and give their seat a bad name, why wouldn’t they vote for Corbyn, when a big Labour win appears nailed on already? There’s a long history of it, going back to at least Dick Taverne in Lincoln.
What our Jeremy may not have realised is that, once re-elected, he’ll be sitting on benches surrounded by Tories, LibDems, DUP and Reformers.
Surely, Labour are going to need two thirds of the seats opposite as well?
There's only room for about 400-something MPs to sit down in the Commons chamber anyway. Labour might have so many MPs that they couldn't all find a seat even if they used both sides, and none of the opposition MPs were present.
I imagine a large number of newly elected Labour MPs will be told to go back to their constituencies, do casework and keep off twatter.
It might help to get them all in a room and have Sir Keir ask them to stand up if they are one of the incompetents or loons who slipped through the screening process.
Despite talking about Afro-Eurasia, I'd spring for five myself. But I'm not getting into submerged continents or microcontinents. Though what hapened to Oceania? When I was at school they told us to use that instead of Australasia.
Just to note for anyone interested in forecasts who didn't see this one mentioned on an earlier thread, the latest UK-Elect forecast has now been released at https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240627ForecastUK.html. (UK-Elect has been one of the most accurate pre-election forecasts at several past elections.)
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 125, Liberal Democrat 50, SNP 17, Plaid Cymru 4, Reform UK 3, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240627ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
I was noting my prediction down earlier today and except that I have SNP up a few and Lab down a few it is spookily similar. Maybe you could have saved yourself a lot of work and just asked me! Just me saying that your prediction model is clearly brilliant!
Good prediction. Tories may get up.to 150 and Labour 410.
I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.
You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
So, you must be in favour of proportional representation? What you are complaining of is a feature of FPTP.
The Tories have enjoyed playing their football downhill for so many years yet they complain when the ball shoots off the bottom end of the pitch into the sea.
I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.
You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
The only problem with 10 years of socialist government is that it isn't 20 years of socialist government.
I know you are a natural conservative, but we aren't really that scary. We want a better society, where all can prosper. A nation at ease with itself. And, importantly to you, we are fundamentally Unionist. It is the SNP who have raised your taxes, not us!
Don't believe all of the nonsense being spewed out by Sunak and the children at CCHQ (I don't think you do); a Labour government, in the hands of a lawyer and a city insider, in the form of Starmer and Reeves, isn't going to do anything madcap. And, with a "super-majority", they can ignore the lefty fringe on the back benches. Twenty rebels? So what?
You should also be contented in the demise of the SNP, something to be repeated in the next Holyrood elections, I suspect.
The conservatives will regroup. It will take a decade, but a sensible centre-right alternative to Labour will re-emerge. The Tories won't be controlled by Farage; perhaps by Priti or Suella in the short term, but common sense will prevail. You'll get your party back.
This is because you believe socialism is a utopia where as for the vast majority of people would find it a dystopian hellscape
Despite talking about Afro-Eurasia, I'd spring for five myself. But I'm not getting into submerged continents or microcontinents. Though what hapened to Oceania? When I was at school they told us to use that instead of Australasia.
Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?
A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.
Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.
“I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”
In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”
He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.
Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”
My immediate skim-read thought was "But Sunak *is* a fucking Prick".
The observation that Fareham does not have a railway station in what I think is the same video is an interesting one.
That was also Mansfield for 30 years (75k people), and Sutton-in-Ashfield (50k people) the same, and places like Washington (I think), Gosport, Peterlee, Ashington, Consett and others.
The first two have had light rail since 1995, which on the whole line now carries 2-3 million passengers per annum and is a useful service.
A useful indicator of neglect? Does someone have a list? Are these all 'ignored' places?
Just saw Corbyn in Islington canvassing the old fashioned way and getting a lot of friendly reception from crowds. Hard to escape the feeling that he’ll win here based on this extremely imprecise sample.
Despite my Islington friend saying the opposite, and more lately sitting on the fence, that’s my feeling.
Voters, especially those not generally engaged in politics in between elections, like having someone well-known represent them, as by extension it puts their little patch of the country on the map. Provided said person doesn’t go over the top and give their seat a bad name, why wouldn’t they vote for Corbyn, when a big Labour win appears nailed on already? There’s a long history of it, going back to at least Dick Taverne in Lincoln.
What our Jeremy may not have realised is that, once re-elected, he’ll be sitting on benches surrounded by Tories, LibDems, DUP and Reformers.
Surely, Labour are going to need two thirds of the seats opposite as well?
There's only room for about 400-something MPs to sit down in the Commons chamber anyway. Labour might have so many MPs that they couldn't all find a seat even if they used both sides, and none of the opposition MPs were present.
There won’t be many occasions when they all need or want to turn up, though.
I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.
You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
I think the video revealed by channel 4 today will give many pause for thought.......it's not pretty. I say this as someone who wanted them as the main opposition.
I sincerely apologise to all muppets. Stating you were the equivalent of Reform voters was grossly unfair.
I'm afraid they are our Deplorables - unPC though it is to say it.
You critisise the politicians, you don’t critise the voters. Ask Hillary Clinton.
But this is me. I'm not running for anything. I can tell the truth.
Besides, Hillary Clinton was completely right in what she said and its not why she lost.
She lost because she was an awful campaigner who totally ignored the electoral college and didn't do enough campaigning in the swing flyover states. She spent more time on the coast than in the states that would decide the election.
Biden didn't make the same mistake, so he won a much healthier electoral college vote.
Biden will concentrate on the key states again this year. He knows what he's doing in a way Hillary didn't, which is funny considering her husband's background as Governor of Arkansas and then some other job.
Hard to say any single thing cost her the election (since it was so close) but let's just say it's a campaign she'd love to have back.
Note that 2016 was Hillary Clinton's SECOND CHANCE at NOT screwing up her so-called election campaign.
Further note, that previous to her 2008 fiasco, the only election she'd ever won that required any heavy lifting, was in 2000 when she ran for US Senate. When she GREATLY benefited from the advice & counsel of NY's then-senior Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, who was retiring.
She was also aided by the fact that Rudolph Giuliani lacked the intestinal fortitude to run against her, though personally think she'd have dispatched him as she did RG's hapless replacement as GOP nominee.
Anyway, she's perhaps the worst politico to ever be a major-party POTUS nominee. Speaking just of Democrats, could be argued that George McGovern, Walter Mondale, Mike Dukakis and Al Gore also stuck up the campaign trail running for the White House. HOWEVER they all had successful political-electoral careers up to then.
I still think England is a batter short in that line-up. I don't really understand this continued use of Curran, who is being very expensive and is a decent batter, but not Jacks or Duckett. Especially when expensive Curran overs came at expense of Topley didn't bowl out his 4.
I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.
You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
I think the video revealed by channel 4 today will give many pause for thought.......it's not pretty. I say this as someone who wanted them as the main opposition.
I sincerely apologise to all muppets. Stating you were the equivalent of Reform voters was grossly unfair.
I'm afraid they are our Deplorables - unPC though it is to say it.
You critisise the politicians, you don’t critise the voters. Ask Hillary Clinton.
But this is me. I'm not running for anything. I can tell the truth.
Besides, Hillary Clinton was completely right in what she said and its not why she lost.
She lost because she was an awful campaigner who totally ignored the electoral college and didn't do enough campaigning in the swing flyover states. She spent more time on the coast than in the states that would decide the election.
Biden didn't make the same mistake, so he won a much healthier electoral college vote.
Biden will concentrate on the key states again this year. He knows what he's doing in a way Hillary didn't, which is funny considering her husband's background as Governor of Arkansas and then some other job.
... and that Hillary had made exactly the same error when losing the nomination to Barack Obama in 2008.
They are idiots. Their demographic could swing entire elections. They could have prevented Brexit if they really wanted to. They could be the electoral counterweight to the grey vote, effectively neutralising it.
Most 18-24s years old do vote, and the turnout gap isn't that big anymore . It is harder for them as they move more often so need ot be pro-active about registering and will have more restrictions on a particular Thursday between 10-10. This probably accounts for most of the variation rather than apathy.
My daughter was away from home Monday-Friday for the May local elections on a work training course. So she applied for a postal vote. The postal vote did not arrive before she left home for the week, and the council were not sympathetic when she phoned to find out if there was any way she could arrange a last-minute proxy vote instead.
Older people have more predictable lives and don't stray far from home as often.
We might consider allowing early in-person voting on the weekend before the election.
I think early in person the weekend before is a very sensible idea.
I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.
You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
So, you must be in favour of proportional representation? What you are complaining of is a feature of FPTP.
No what I am complaining about is the inbicility of those who don’t seem to understand the implications of FPTP.
I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.
You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
Question - what is the difference between "socialist government" and the Conservatives?
Punative taxes to record levels? Tick Wasting billions on crap public services? Tick Open door migration letting anyone in? Tick Nanny state nonsense about what we eat and smoke? Tick
People don't fear "socialist government" or any of the idiotic threats Sunak and the press team are making, because we live that every day already.
We were interested to see Nigel Farage hiring the devil's own law firm, Carter-Ruck, to respond to the Mail on Sunday's story that claimed Farage was personally "infected with Putinism".
While Farage doesn't look out of place on Carter-Ruck's client list (The Church Of Scientology, Simon Cowell, Chelsea FC, Qatar, etc) we're not sure they're the best firm to hire if you're looking to scrub the taint of Putin.
Not least because, Carter-Ruck head honcho Nigel Tait was specifically named in the House of Commons in 2022 as one of the "amoral" lawyers in the profession aiding Russian interests in the UK courts at the expense of British citizens.
if there is something wrong with what lawyers do (except of course breaking the law, or acting contrary to professional standards, which is different), blame lawmakers not those who have a go at doing the job of being a lawyer.
Having said that, there is a group of lawyers who make you sit up and wonder a bit. Lawyers/firms who specialise in crime and only do privately paid work - no legal aid.
I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.
You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
Question - what is the difference between "socialist government" and the Conservatives?
Punative taxes to record levels? Tick Wasting billions on crap public services? Tick Open door migration letting anyone in? Tick Nanny state nonsense about what we eat and smoke? Tick
People don't fear "socialist government" or any of the idiotic threats Sunak and the press team are making, because we live that every day already.
Socialist governement always results in two classes....party members and serfs. Capitalism for all its faults has never in any country produced zil lanes for the party faithful
Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?
A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.
Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.
“I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”
In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”
He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.
Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”
My immediate skim-read thought was "But Sunak *is* a fucking Prick".
The observation that Fareham does not have a railway station in what I think is the same video is an interesting one.
That was also Mansfield for 30 years (75k people), and Sutton-in-Ashfield (50k people) the same, and places like Washington (I think), Gosport, Peterlee, Ashington, Consett and others.
The first two have had light rail since 1995, which on the whole line now carries 2-3 million passengers per annum and is a useful service.
A useful indicator of neglect? Does someone have a list? Are these all 'ignored' places?
Despite talking about Afro-Eurasia, I'd spring for five myself. But I'm not getting into submerged continents or microcontinents. Though what hapened to Oceania? When I was at school they told us to use that instead of Australasia.
Oh yes. The continent with the highest density of bakeries on the planet.
Never liked the pasties.
It's not the pasties.
It's because everyone from Cornwall is really into bread.
They were upset there after the majority of them voted for Brexit and the EU redrew their funding. And they do not like the grockels. They should move to Paris and get the Parisans to run Cornwall and insist on speaking French to tourists.
Just to note for anyone interested in forecasts who didn't see this one mentioned on an earlier thread, the latest UK-Elect forecast has now been released at https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240627ForecastUK.html. (UK-Elect has been one of the most accurate pre-election forecasts at several past elections.)
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 125, Liberal Democrat 50, SNP 17, Plaid Cymru 4, Reform UK 3, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240627ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
That looks like a pretty sound forecast to me. Around what I’m expecting at the moment.
We were interested to see Nigel Farage hiring the devil's own law firm, Carter-Ruck, to respond to the Mail on Sunday's story that claimed Farage was personally "infected with Putinism".
While Farage doesn't look out of place on Carter-Ruck's client list (The Church Of Scientology, Simon Cowell, Chelsea FC, Qatar, etc) we're not sure they're the best firm to hire if you're looking to scrub the taint of Putin.
Not least because, Carter-Ruck head honcho Nigel Tait was specifically named in the House of Commons in 2022 as one of the "amoral" lawyers in the profession aiding Russian interests in the UK courts at the expense of British citizens.
if there is something wrong with what lawyers do (except of course breaking the law, or acting contrary to professional standards, which is different), blame lawmakers not those who have a go at doing the job of being a lawyer.
Having said that, there is a group of lawyers who make you sit up and wonder a bit. Lawyers/firms who specialise in crime and only do privately paid work - no legal aid.
Perhaps they have a perverse desire to make more than about 70% of the minimum wage.
Despite talking about Afro-Eurasia, I'd spring for five myself. But I'm not getting into submerged continents or microcontinents. Though what hapened to Oceania? When I was at school they told us to use that instead of Australasia.
Oh yes. The continent with the highest density of bakeries on the planet.
Never liked the pasties.
It's not the pasties.
It's because everyone from Cornwall is really into bread.
They were upset there after the majority of them voted for Brexit and the EU redrew their funding. And they do not like the grockels. They should move to Paris and get the Parisans to run Cornwall and insist on speaking French to tourists.
We don't have grockels that is devon we have emmets named after a small species of ant....annoying and hard to get rid of
Comments
Two Lib Dem Diamonds.
One Reform flag on a flagpole.
Thats it.
Saw more England flags hung out of windows by football fans.
Burgessian said:
» show previous quotes
This is not a good time to be in government! (As Sir Keir may fairly soon find out). So far as I can see only Meloni seems to be bucking trend in the major countries - apart from Biden who has Trump to thank for that.
SSI - Has something to do with Trudeau the Younger's problem, as with Sunak.
HOWEVER think two other factors are at play in the Great White North:
> Justin Trudeau has been PM since 2015, thus significant fatigue with him AND his Liberal Party; similar to UK voter fatigue with CUP.
> Pierre Poilievre, Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, is WAY more of an electoral asset than his predecessor who lost last election to JT; similar to Starmer compared to Corbyn.
Voters, especially those not generally engaged in politics in between elections, like having someone well-known represent them, as by extension it puts their little patch of the country on the map. Provided said person doesn’t go over the top and give their seat a bad name, why wouldn’t they vote for Corbyn, when a big Labour win appears nailed on already? There’s a long history of it, going back to at least Dick Taverne in Lincoln.
What our Jeremy may not have realised is that, once re-elected, he’ll be sitting on benches surrounded by Tories, LibDems, DUP and Reformers.
Continental plates don't work either because there's too many of the buggers.
I'm a fan of categorisation by bio-geographic realm.
I'd have thought multiplying this by 10 (it's currently 3%) would be seriously interesting (in social if not fiscal terms).
Is there any limit to government bringing in a "tax" but calling it a charge rather than (IT, NI, VAT)? eg the "Being a High Earner" charge? "Buying lots of stuff" charge?
Pretty obvious that NF himself doesn't have more than a medium-sized pot to piss in. In theory the libel suit gives him a shot at refueling his personal exchequer. PLUS doubling-down on his rhetoric, which IMHO is most pleasing to yet another potential source of sustenance = Trump.
Though what hapened to Oceania? When I was at school they told us to use that instead of Australasia.
Noncontentious.
She lost because she was an awful campaigner who totally ignored the electoral college and didn't do enough campaigning in the swing flyover states. She spent more time on the coast than in the states that would decide the election.
Biden didn't make the same mistake, so he won a much healthier electoral college vote.
Biden will concentrate on the key states again this year. He knows what he's doing in a way Hillary didn't, which is funny considering her husband's background as Governor of Arkansas and then some other job.
I’m shocked.
https://x.com/lbcnewswales/status/1806382232686186750?s=61
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 125, Liberal Democrat 50, SNP 17, Plaid Cymru 4, Reform UK 3, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240627ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
Of course, it's a definition that's been in use for so long, that it's become convenient and "normal", and so changing it is troublesome and irksome. And, anyway, the definition is always going to be arbitrary, to some extent.
I know you are a natural conservative, but we aren't really that scary. We want a better society, where all can prosper. A nation at ease with itself. And, importantly to you, we are fundamentally Unionist. It is the SNP who have raised your taxes, not us!
Don't believe all of the nonsense being spewed out by Sunak and the children at CCHQ (I don't think you do); a Labour government, in the hands of a lawyer and a city insider, in the form of Starmer and Reeves, isn't going to do anything madcap. And, with a "super-majority", they can ignore the lefty fringe on the back benches. Twenty rebels? So what?
You should also be contented in the demise of the SNP, something to be repeated in the next Holyrood elections, I suspect.
The conservatives will regroup. It will take a decade, but a sensible centre-right alternative to Labour will re-emerge. The Tories won't be controlled by Farage; perhaps by Priti or Suella in the short term, but common sense will prevail. You'll get your party back.
What you are complaining of is a feature of FPTP.
The last week is when swingback should kick in, assuming the Tories can avoid any further self immolation before next Thursday.
Reminds me of 1994, when voters in Spokane and rest of WA CD5 where told that they should keep on voting for Tom Foley for Congress because he was powerful Speaker of the US House. Well, turned out that even if Foley had been re-elected in his own district, he would NOT remain as Speaker because the Democrat's lost their long-standing majority to Newt Gingrich's Republicans.
Somehow the voters in WA CD5 sensed this, because they did NOT re-elect Foley. Which would have been pretty pointless for him AND for them.
Looks like Techne is unchanged except Labour down one on last week
Voting for Reform as a prospective party of government would deserve all the opprobrium available. But voting for Reform to lodge a protest against the Tories is sensible in my view, if you're that way inclined. It's equivalent to voting Green whilst Corbyn ran Labour.
I get your point about enabling a longer Labour government but again, that's the fault of the Tories for being so irredeemably, inexcusably shit.
Bowlers doing their bit, we need our batsman to do theirs.
https://x.com/nocontextbrits/status/1806085164789076168?s=61
"Who here is a Jared O'Mara?"
My immediate skim-read thought was "But Sunak *is* a fucking Prick".
The observation that Fareham does not have a railway station in what I think is the same video is an interesting one.
That was also Mansfield for 30 years (75k people), and Sutton-in-Ashfield (50k people) the same, and places like Washington (I think), Gosport, Peterlee, Ashington, Consett and others.
The first two have had light rail since 1995, which on the whole line now carries 2-3 million passengers per annum and is a useful service.
A useful indicator of neglect? Does someone have a list? Are these all 'ignored' places?
Need a good start.
Further note, that previous to her 2008 fiasco, the only election she'd ever won that required any heavy lifting, was in 2000 when she ran for US Senate. When she GREATLY benefited from the advice & counsel of NY's then-senior Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, who was retiring.
She was also aided by the fact that Rudolph Giuliani lacked the intestinal fortitude to run against her, though personally think she'd have dispatched him as she did RG's hapless replacement as GOP nominee.
Anyway, she's perhaps the worst politico to ever be a major-party POTUS nominee. Speaking just of Democrats, could be argued that George McGovern, Walter Mondale, Mike Dukakis and Al Gore also stuck up the campaign trail running for the White House. HOWEVER they all had successful political-electoral careers up to then.
ETA scooped by SSI2
Best
Campaign
Ever
Punative taxes to record levels? Tick
Wasting billions on crap public services? Tick
Open door migration letting anyone in? Tick
Nanny state nonsense about what we eat and smoke? Tick
People don't fear "socialist government" or any of the idiotic threats Sunak and the press team are making, because we live that every day already.
Having said that, there is a group of lawyers who make you sit up and wonder a bit. Lawyers/firms who specialise in crime and only do privately paid work - no legal aid.