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It’s only a sub-sample but.. – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited July 4 in General
It’s only a sub-sample but.. – politicalbetting.com

Fun snippet fromm the most recent @yougov tabs. Among 18-24 year olds the Conservatives are on the same share of the *national* vote as the SNP pic.twitter.com/PcCbNGFmRJ

Read the full story here

«134567

Comments

  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    edited June 27
    18-24 year olds don’t vote though.

    (First)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,271
    Look at the 25-49s:

    Reform: 15%
    Conservative: 6%
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,359
    edited June 27
    kle4 said:

    carnforth said:

    God Taunton is grim. This bit of it anyway.

    Any party got a policy to annexe it and make it part of Minehead in their manifesto?

    They would know how to deal with eel poisoning Glastonbury Drug Abusers. Oh Yes.

    Market towns have been hollowed out by the motor car. A hundred years ago the middle class solicitor, teacher, doctor would have lived in town. Now they've pissed off to the villages.

    Decent cheap breakfast or tea & cake at the indoor market if you're still there tomorrow.
    It is sad how many empty shops and tat shops there are in what is one of Englands nicer county towns.

    Sadly the small villages that were home as recently as the 1970s to many farm workers and labours etc. are just commuter dwellings now and contractors drive tens of miles to work farms.
    Why's it sad?

    Its free choice and people moving on.

    So pathetic to see people bemoaning a century old technology.

    What next, ban the Internet so people go shopping in the stores instead of Amazon.

    We have cars and the Internet, that's progress. If we don't want shops, that's no big deal, that land can be repurposed for other more valuable use.
    I don't celebrate the hollowing out of small towns. I live in a small town. But times have moved on, and I don't see what could possibly restore it. People's habits are different, and what measures people do suggest don't seem like they would massively impact things.

    Town centres will presumably be mostly for living in and eating out.
    Having restaurants in walking distance of your home is no bad thing.

    Any big shopping can be done in a car which can carry your shopping home, preferably out of town for those living in town so town isn't congested with totally unnecessary traffic.

    Having a vibrant restaurant and nightlife isn't something to be upset about, nor is having homes for people.

    Most people under 50 probably would probably rather have homes and restaurants than shops anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    It's only for fun, but it's still stupidly low.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,145
    If you were under 50, why would you be voting for more of the same? It would be insanity, unless perhaps one had a bet on it.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,186

    TimS said:

    18-24 year olds don’t vote though.

    (First)

    They are idiots. Their demographic could swing entire elections. They could have prevented Brexit if they really wanted to. They could be the electoral counterweight to the grey vote, effectively neutralising it.
    Politicians would have to enact policies more friendly to their age group instead of, as now, ignoring them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    TimS said:

    18-24 year olds don’t vote though.

    (First)

    They are idiots. Their demographic could swing entire elections. They could have prevented Brexit if they really wanted to. They could be the electoral counterweight to the grey vote, effectively neutralising it.
    Not entirely, there's a lot more of the old than the young, but they are enough to make a true difference if they turned out at the same levels.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,145

    TimS said:

    18-24 year olds don’t vote though.

    (First)

    They are idiots. Their demographic could swing entire elections. They could have prevented Brexit if they really wanted to. They could be the electoral counterweight to the grey vote, effectively neutralising it.
    Most 18-24s years old do vote, and the turnout gap isn't that big anymore . It is harder for them as they move more often so need ot be pro-active about registering and will have more restrictions on a particular Thursday between 10-10. This probably accounts for most of the variation rather than apathy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

    You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.
  • berberian_knowsberberian_knows Posts: 52
    edited June 27
    FPT
    O/T (completely bonkers more like) Would it be possible to introduce a higher employer's national insurance rate for immigrant workers. It'd make no immediate difference to the sainted NHS (receipts out=receipts in), but would encourage "British Jobs for British Workers". The NHS would also see they could optimize their budget if they went domestic. We have a higher tax rate for graduates (although it's not called that) so it's not completely off the wall? You'd want a nice 5 year tapered introduction so employers could train up domestic staff obviously. A Brexit benefit?



    https://www.gov.uk/uk-visa-sponsorship-employers/immigration-skills-charge

    There already is an additional surcharge, not part of employer NI but to the same effect.

    But this is (a) for workers with pay > £30K and (b) only 3%. How about 20% for care workers?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Can't even get the right racial slur....
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,186

    TimS said:

    18-24 year olds don’t vote though.

    (First)

    They are idiots. Their demographic could swing entire elections. They could have prevented Brexit if they really wanted to. They could be the electoral counterweight to the grey vote, effectively neutralising it.
    Most 18-24s years old do vote, and the turnout gap isn't that big anymore . It is harder for them as they move more often so need ot be pro-active about registering and will have more restrictions on a particular Thursday between 10-10. This probably accounts for most of the variation rather than apathy.
    Only about 50% voted in 2019 whereas 40 y.o. were nearer 70% and pensioners were at 80%
  • Can't even get the right racial slur....
    The Major would not be impressed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Good lord those tables look way worse than the headline VI for the Tories to me.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    FPT:

    The T20 Final is on Saturday - ie the day after tomorrow - and in a different country.

    The problem is the semis should have been earlier.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976
    Well looks like Reform UK won't make their breakthrough in seat numbers this year.........

    https://x.com/Channel4News/status/1806374007521849668
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976
    DavidL said:

    I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

    You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

    I think the video revealed by channel 4 today will give many pause for thought.......it's not pretty. I say this as someone who wanted them as the main opposition.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Pulpstar said:

    Good lord those tables look way worse than the headline VI for the Tories to me.

    agree.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,114
    SEVEN DAYS TO SAVE THE TORY PARTY!!!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,382
    Previous Thread, From

    Farage’s ‘Sheffield Rally’ is this weekend at the NEC:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1806367143564280056

    Begun, the Farage Rally has... :)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    edited June 27
    The Ref candidate being disowned in Basingstoke isn't the best of news for Labour because it could obviously mean the Tory vote is slightly higher than it would otherwise have been, and mess up their chances of winning the seat for the first time ever.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    I wonder what first attracted him to Reform?

    Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?

    A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.

    Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.

    “I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”

    In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”

    He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.

    Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Andy_JS said:

    The Ref candidate being disowned in Basingstoke isn't the best of news for Labour because it could obviously mean the Tory vote is slightly higher than it would otherwise have been.

    9/2 with Bet365 to hold is probably value
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,359

    TimS said:

    18-24 year olds don’t vote though.

    (First)

    They are idiots. Their demographic could swing entire elections. They could have prevented Brexit if they really wanted to. They could be the electoral counterweight to the grey vote, effectively neutralising it.
    Maths question.

    Estimate what percentage of adults are both 18-24 on 04/07/2024 and were old enough to vote on 23/06/2016.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    I wonder what first attracted him to Reform?

    Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?

    A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.

    Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.

    “I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”

    In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”

    He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.

    Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

    Well, at least he is not denying what he said as some do even when recorded.

    Though I must have missed how calling people a f***ing p*** is a 'view on immigration'.

    All he had to do was leave out that sentence and he could have abused Rishi to his heart's content.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    edited June 27

    TimS said:

    18-24 year olds don’t vote though.

    (First)

    They are idiots. Their demographic could swing entire elections. They could have prevented Brexit if they really wanted to. They could be the electoral counterweight to the grey vote, effectively neutralising it.
    Most 18-24s years old do vote, and the turnout gap isn't that big anymore . It is harder for them as they move more often so need ot be pro-active about registering and will have more restrictions on a particular Thursday between 10-10. This probably accounts for most of the variation rather than apathy.
    Most is pushing it, but actually there’s an interesting pattern by age group per the British election study, for which I’ll use my daily picture.



    Those 25-34 and 35-44 year olds are the real laggards. Millennials in other words.

    GenX take our civic duties more seriously.

    The same study demonstrates that only the Lib Dems have equal support across all the generations. That’s our timeless appeal.

    https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/age-and-voting-behaviour-at-the-2019-general-election/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Nunu5 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

    You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

    I think the video revealed by channel 4 today will give many pause for thought.......it's not pretty. I say this as someone who wanted them as the main opposition.
    I sincerely apologise to all muppets. Stating you were the equivalent of Reform voters was grossly unfair.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Andy_JS said:

    The Ref candidate being disowned in Basingstoke isn't the best of news for Labour because it could obviously mean the Tory vote is slightly higher than it would otherwise have been.

    9/2 with Bet365 to hold is probably value
    Not sure, it's a comfortable Labour gain
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    I wonder what first attracted him to Reform?

    Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?

    A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.

    Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.

    “I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”

    In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”

    He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.

    Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

    It’s hard to overlook his complete ignorance of the sub continent but let’s face it, there is no beginning to his ignorance. It is infinite.
  • vinovino Posts: 171
    BBC News first five minutes was almost a party political for Reform.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 27
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Ref candidate being disowned in Basingstoke isn't the best of news for Labour because it could obviously mean the Tory vote is slightly higher than it would otherwise have been.

    9/2 with Bet365 to hold is probably value
    Not sure, it's a comfortable Labour gain
    South of London/Hants I am expecting the Con Vote to be slightly stickier but i agree its a likely gain, 9/2 is almost tempting me (hence 'probably')
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    Viewcode. Sorry I missed your post. So many it's impossible to keep up. Here is the Vox Pop
    from Fareham. I found it interesting and quite illuminating.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cK8BHiWLBV8

  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500
    FPT

    viewcode said:

    Look what Find out now have found out now

    MRP projection for Islington North:

    ⚪️ Corbyn 37% (+37)
    🔴 LAB 33% (-31)
    🔵 CON 12% (+2)
    🟢 GRN 8% (-)

    Via
    @ElectCalculus
    /
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 14-24 June

    How the hell do you do a MRP for a named individual??? Did they just poll Islington North?
    The MRP has Corbyn doing 8pts better than the constituency poll conducted at the same time. This isn't a huge difference given margin of error.

    Notable difference is that the constituency poll suggests Tories are voting for Labour to beat Corbyn, something MRPs cannot pick up.
    It's worth noting that the Tories simply aren't campaigning in Islington North. Not so much as a single leaflet from them - we've even had two from Refuk!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144

    SEVEN DAYS TO SAVE THE TORY PARTY!!!

    Tory freedom day, just one week away.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,935

    SEVEN DAYS TO SAVE THE TORY PARTY!!!

    In 7 days time, there will be just 4 Reform candidates not disowned....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997

    I wonder what first attracted him to Reform?

    Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?

    A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.

    Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.

    “I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”

    In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”

    He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.

    Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

    Whoops, although it’s hardly surprising thata bunch of racists have lined up behind Farage.

    He might know exactly how to tread the line, but many of his supporters don’t know that there is a line.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    Nunu5 said:

    Well looks like Reform UK won't make their breakthrough in seat numbers this year.........

    https://x.com/Channel4News/status/1806374007521849668

    Abhorrent, but does this put off much of their base?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,382
    Roger said:

    Viewcode. Sorry I missed your post. So many it's impossible to keep up. Here is the Vox Pop
    from Fareham. I found it interesting and quite illuminating.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cK8BHiWLBV8

    I see, thank you
  • novanova Posts: 695

    TimS said:

    18-24 year olds don’t vote though.

    (First)

    They are idiots. Their demographic could swing entire elections. They could have prevented Brexit if they really wanted to. They could be the electoral counterweight to the grey vote, effectively neutralising it.
    Maths question.

    Estimate what percentage of adults are both 18-24 on 04/07/2024 and were old enough to vote on 23/06/2016.
    I think he's suggesting it's more of a rolling idiocy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    I wonder what first attracted him to Reform?

    Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?

    A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.

    Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.

    “I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”

    In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”

    He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.

    Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

    It’s hard to overlook his complete ignorance of the sub continent but let’s face it, there is no beginning to his ignorance. It is infinite.
    A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin and racism.
    Yes. And this is so blindingly obvious that you despair.


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,271
    edited June 27

    DavidL said:

    I wonder what first attracted him to Reform?

    Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?

    A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.

    Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.

    “I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”

    In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”

    He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.

    Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

    It’s hard to overlook his complete ignorance of the sub continent but let’s face it, there is no beginning to his ignorance. It is infinite.
    A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin and racism.
    "The basket of deplorables..."
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,382
    edited June 27
    [duplicate]
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,935
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    18-24 year olds don’t vote though.

    (First)

    They are idiots. Their demographic could swing entire elections. They could have prevented Brexit if they really wanted to. They could be the electoral counterweight to the grey vote, effectively neutralising it.
    Not entirely, there's a lot more of the old than the young, but they are enough to make a true difference if they turned out at the same levels.
    But they won't. Nowhere near.

    They aren't registered to vote in big enough numbers for one thing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    DavidL said:

    I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

    You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

    But if we had real democracy, their votes would be properly and fairly represented.

    What you are really railing against is that the inbuilt fix in our voting system that has pampered and favoured the Tories for so long, just might work hugely against them this time around.

    That the Tories might get to feel how the LibDems have, winning 20-25% of the national vote and yet taking away just a tiny handful of seats, is just part of the karma that is, hopefully, incoming your way in just a week’s time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    My dad once tried to convince me that P*** was no different to Brit (indeed, I could use it without a filter in most publications), but he did accept that people he had referred to by the term when at school he did not know exactly where they came from*, which undercut his point a little.

    *other than Slough.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Maybe Reform get no more than 5% in the end?
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    People owe David Cameron an apology, he nailed it when he said

    Ukip is sort of a bunch of ... fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists mostly,"

    And hearty congratulations for selling the pass to them.

    When it comes to having a shiny forehead and ennobling Glaswegian knickers magnates he's first
    At serious grown up politics he's the worst

    As sir rod memorably sings.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976

    Nunu5 said:

    Well looks like Reform UK won't make their breakthrough in seat numbers this year.........

    https://x.com/Channel4News/status/1806374007521849668

    Abhorrent, but does this put off much of their base?
    Proably not a lot but if even a few go back to the tories it will be enough to save them quite a few seats. Many of the seats the tories are forecast to lose are very close.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    DavidL said:

    I wonder what first attracted him to Reform?

    Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?

    A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.

    Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.

    “I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”

    In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”

    He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.

    Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

    It’s hard to overlook his complete ignorance of the sub continent but let’s face it, there is no beginning to his ignorance. It is infinite.
    A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin and racism.
    "The basket of deplorables..."
    January 6th confirmed that Hillary was spot on.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Ref candidate being disowned in Basingstoke isn't the best of news for Labour because it could obviously mean the Tory vote is slightly higher than it would otherwise have been.

    9/2 with Bet365 to hold is probably value
    Not sure, it's a comfortable Labour gain
    South of London/Hants I am expecting the Con Vote to be slightly stickier but i agree its a likely gain, 9/2 is almost tempting me (hence 'probably')
    It's seat 298,268,321,328,335,279,362,290,250 safest for Labour after the election according to all the models and MRPs out there. On UNS it would be Labour seat 342 - the fact it's a southern commuter hotspot (I think !) means probably a better result for Labour there than average.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    People owe David Cameron an apology, he nailed it when he said

    Ukip is sort of a bunch of ... fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists mostly

    Careful, you'll be accused of causing such views by sneering at them.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    kle4 said:

    My dad once tried to convince me that P*** was no different to Brit (indeed, I could use it without a filter in most publications), but he did accept that people he had referred to by the term when at school he did not know exactly where they came from*, which undercut his point a little.

    *other than Slough.

    And don't get me started on "subcontinent", what on earth makes Europe a continent and India only sub?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Maybe Reform get no more than 5% in the end?

    I think 10-15% is their range myself. Views are set, many votes already cast, and so many people very angry.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997
    Bowlers and fielders doing well to keep the score down here.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,811
    edited June 27

    kle4 said:

    My dad once tried to convince me that P*** was no different to Brit (indeed, I could use it without a filter in most publications), but he did accept that people he had referred to by the term when at school he did not know exactly where they came from*, which undercut his point a little.

    *other than Slough.

    And don't get me started on "subcontinent", what on earth makes Europe a continent and India only sub?
    Because it isn't a continent?

    *Apologies if you were being deliberately thick for comic effect.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976
    The tories will not be replaces on the right by Reform this election. A shame because they badly need replacing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    kle4 said:

    People owe David Cameron an apology, he nailed it when he said

    Ukip is sort of a bunch of ... fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists mostly

    Careful, you'll be accused of causing such views by sneering at them.
    I never sneer.
  • bobbobbobbob Posts: 100

    TimS said:

    18-24 year olds don’t vote though.

    (First)

    They are idiots. Their demographic could swing entire elections. They could have prevented Brexit if they really wanted to. They could be the electoral counterweight to the grey vote, effectively neutralising it.
    Don’t think many current 18 to 24 years olds were able to vote in the Brexit referendum !!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997
    Sandpit said:

    Bowlers and fielders doing well to keep the score down here.

    So of course the next ball goes for six!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    Nunu5 said:

    The tories will not be replaces on the right by Reform this election. A shame because they badly need replacing.

    Reform need to reform themselves if they are to be taken seriously.

    The Conservatives need reform not Reform.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,417
    IanB2 said:

    SEVEN DAYS TO SAVE THE TORY PARTY!!!

    Tory freedom day, just one week away.
    For several of us, this is the last Conservative government in our lifetime, based on the recent pattern of three-term party rule. On the other hand, it is not five years ago we were looking forward to a decade under World King Boris after his 80-seat majority.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    edited June 27

    DavidL said:

    I wonder what first attracted him to Reform?

    Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?

    A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.

    Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.

    “I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”

    In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”

    He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.

    Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

    It’s hard to overlook his complete ignorance of the sub continent but let’s face it, there is no beginning to his ignorance. It is infinite.
    A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin and racism.
    Yet Sean is voting Labour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    kle4 said:

    My dad once tried to convince me that P*** was no different to Brit (indeed, I could use it without a filter in most publications), but he did accept that people he had referred to by the term when at school he did not know exactly where they came from*, which undercut his point a little.

    *other than Slough.

    And don't get me started on "subcontinent", what on earth makes Europe a continent and India only sub?
    I think that's actually intended as a kind of compliment - it's so significant that even though it doesn't fit even the woolly idea of what a continent is, it should still include the continent label.

    But really Europe makes no sense geographically as one, so we should all just pile in on Afro-Eurasia.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Sandpit said:

    Bowlers and fielders doing well to keep the score down here.

    You are DavidL and I claim my £5.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    kle4 said:

    My dad once tried to convince me that P*** was no different to Brit (indeed, I could use it without a filter in most publications), but he did accept that people he had referred to by the term when at school he did not know exactly where they came from*, which undercut his point a little.

    *other than Slough.

    And don't get me started on "subcontinent", what on earth makes Europe a continent and India only sub?
    Because it isn't a continent?

    *Apologies if you were being deliberately thick for comic effect.
    It's not a subcontinent either, it's part of Asia just as Europe is. Are you doing some meta thing here, being deliberately thick about being deliberately thick?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,359

    DavidL said:

    I wonder what first attracted him to Reform?

    Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?

    A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.

    Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.

    “I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”

    In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”

    He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.

    Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

    It’s hard to overlook his complete ignorance of the sub continent but let’s face it, there is no beginning to his ignorance. It is infinite.
    A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin and racism.
    "The basket of deplorables..."
    ... is an apt description for Reform. 👍
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

    You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

    But if we had real democracy, their votes would be properly and fairly represented.

    What you are really railing against is that the inbuilt fix in our voting system that has pampered and favoured the Tories for so long, just might work hugely against them this time around.

    That the Tories might get to feel how the LibDems have, winning 20-25% of the national vote and yet taking away just a tiny handful of seats, is just part of the karma that is, hopefully, incoming your way in just a week’s time.
    As a SCON DavidL will have had experience of 25% of the vote with little to show for it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997

    Sandpit said:

    Bowlers and fielders doing well to keep the score down here.

    You are DavidL and I claim my £5.
    At least it’s not ten grand!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    Great statistic in the header about 18-24 year olds.........

    The Futures Bright.

    The Future's Orange

    (and red and green)

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,359
    Nunu5 said:

    The tories will not be replaces on the right by Reform this election. A shame because they badly need replacing.

    Not a shame.

    Replacing the Tories with Reform is like replacing a headache with a brain tumour.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,198
    Sandpit said:

    Bowlers and fielders doing well to keep the score down here.

    What did you do?!
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    Just saw Corbyn in Islington canvassing the old fashioned way and getting a lot of friendly reception from crowds. Hard to escape the feeling that he’ll win here based on this extremely imprecise sample.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997
    Got him!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,990
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    18-24 year olds don’t vote though.

    (First)

    They are idiots. Their demographic could swing entire elections. They could have prevented Brexit if they really wanted to. They could be the electoral counterweight to the grey vote, effectively neutralising it.
    Most 18-24s years old do vote, and the turnout gap isn't that big anymore . It is harder for them as they move more often so need ot be pro-active about registering and will have more restrictions on a particular Thursday between 10-10. This probably accounts for most of the variation rather than apathy.
    Most is pushing it, but actually there’s an interesting pattern by age group per the British election study, for which I’ll use my daily picture.



    Those 25-34 and 35-44 year olds are the real laggards. Millennials in other words.

    GenX take our civic duties more seriously.

    The same study demonstrates that only the Lib Dems have equal support across all the generations. That’s our timeless appeal.

    https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/age-and-voting-behaviour-at-the-2019-general-election/
    The same study demonstrates that only the Lib Dems have the same lack of support across all the generations.


    There fixed it for you
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Speaking of, UKIP stood 44 candidates in 2019 and got 23k votes, fewer than the Scottish Greens from 22 seats, and less than twice that of the Ashfield Independents from 1. They only got about twice as many as the Liberal Party.

    This time they are standing in only 24 seats, below even that of the RejoinEU, Heritage, and Yorksihire parties.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    I bet Leon and Donald Trump have experienced the same problem as Ms Paltrow's guest.

    Vile smears. Don't wear white before Labor Day

    It's not all shits and giggles for New York's upper crust as they head to the Hamptons for the summer season. It's mostly just shits.

    For the last few weeks the Hamptons set's favourite piece of gossip to text to each other has regarded a scandal at the home of Gwyneth Paltrow. The story goes that a recent houseguest of Gwynnie's catastrophically shat themselves in bed while staying there, then fled back to the city before they had to face the music.

    Gwynnie's guest won't be the only shitter in the Hamptons this year. Ozempic-induced diarrhoea is becoming a very hot topic of conversation between hosts there - because so many of their guests are using it. So expect laundrettes to be fully booked from July 4th.


    From another PB.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,641
    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

    You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

    I think the video revealed by channel 4 today will give many pause for thought.......it's not pretty. I say this as someone who wanted them as the main opposition.
    I sincerely apologise to all muppets. Stating you were the equivalent of Reform voters was grossly unfair.
    I'm afraid they are our Deplorables - unPC though it is to say it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    Nunu5 said:

    The tories will not be replaces on the right by Reform this election. A shame because they badly need replacing.

    I’m pretty confident they will be replaced in just one week’s time. What they do thereafter is their own affair.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    kle4 said:

    My dad once tried to convince me that P*** was no different to Brit (indeed, I could use it without a filter in most publications), but he did accept that people he had referred to by the term when at school he did not know exactly where they came from*, which undercut his point a little.

    *other than Slough.

    Its quite a few years since I heard anyone say 'Paki' and it was by an Asian bloke referring to a large number living in a certain street.

    I was somewhat curious as to whether he was referring to people of Pakistani background or Asians generally.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Just saw Corbyn in Islington canvassing the old fashioned way and getting a lot of friendly reception from crowds. Hard to escape the feeling that he’ll win here based on this extremely imprecise sample.

    If we learned anything from 2019 it is that being able to draw a crowd, 'old fashioned' campaigning, doesn't mean a thing if a lot of other things are against you.

    He should have a friendlier environment in Islington, but winning will still be hard.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,641
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    I wonder what first attracted him to Reform?

    Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?

    A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.

    Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.

    “I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”

    In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”

    He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.

    Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

    It’s hard to overlook his complete ignorance of the sub continent but let’s face it, there is no beginning to his ignorance. It is infinite.
    A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin and racism.
    Yet Sean is voting Labour.
    No he's voting Reform.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited June 27
    Sandpit said:

    Got him!

    Theyve all been chucked out with immediate effect. How long did it take Sunak to suspend the [alleged] inside bettors?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,145
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    18-24 year olds don’t vote though.

    (First)

    They are idiots. Their demographic could swing entire elections. They could have prevented Brexit if they really wanted to. They could be the electoral counterweight to the grey vote, effectively neutralising it.
    Most 18-24s years old do vote, and the turnout gap isn't that big anymore . It is harder for them as they move more often so need ot be pro-active about registering and will have more restrictions on a particular Thursday between 10-10. This probably accounts for most of the variation rather than apathy.
    Most is pushing it, but actually there’s an interesting pattern by age group per the British election study, for which I’ll use my daily picture.



    Those 25-34 and 35-44 year olds are the real laggards. Millennials in other words.

    GenX take our civic duties more seriously.

    The same study demonstrates that only the Lib Dems have equal support across all the generations. That’s our timeless appeal.

    https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/age-and-voting-behaviour-at-the-2019-general-election/
    So the people in rented housing who get moved from place to place against their will requiring reregistering with dozens of authorities and companies each time and have to work long hours with less flexibility are less likely to register and turn up on a given Thursday. I wonder why?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,902
    edited June 27

    TimS said:

    18-24 year olds don’t vote though.

    (First)

    They are idiots. Their demographic could swing entire elections. They could have prevented Brexit if they really wanted to. They could be the electoral counterweight to the grey vote, effectively neutralising it.
    Most 18-24s years old do vote, and the turnout gap isn't that big anymore . It is harder for them as they move more often so need ot be pro-active about registering and will have more restrictions on a particular Thursday between 10-10. This probably accounts for most of the variation rather than apathy.
    My daughter was away from home Monday-Friday for the May local elections on a work training course. So she applied for a postal vote. The postal vote did not arrive before she left home for the week, and the council were not sympathetic when she phoned to find out if there was any way she could arrange a last-minute proxy vote instead.

    Older people have more predictable lives and don't stray far from home as often.

    We might consider allowing early in-person voting on the weekend before the election.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    Channel 4 expose on racism in Farages Party just starting

    That must have taken 5 minutes to research
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

    You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

    I think the video revealed by channel 4 today will give many pause for thought.......it's not pretty. I say this as someone who wanted them as the main opposition.
    I sincerely apologise to all muppets. Stating you were the equivalent of Reform voters was grossly unfair.
    I'm afraid they are our Deplorables - unPC though it is to say it.
    You critisise the politicians, you don’t critise the voters. Ask Hillary Clinton.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,452
    kle4 said:

    My dad once tried to convince me that P*** was no different to Brit (indeed, I could use it without a filter in most publications), but he did accept that people he had referred to by the term when at school he did not know exactly where they came from*, which undercut his point a little.

    *other than Slough.

    A while back I heard an anecdote - and I've no idea if it's true.

    A couple of decades ago, a USAF trainee pilot of Pakistani origin was dubbed the P-word. This was informally okayed by the senior officers, until an exchange pilot mentioned that it might not be a good nickname. After which it was rapidly (and unusually) changed.

    Words can have different cultural meanings in different countries.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Legal/Reform. A tale of two Nigels

    We were interested to see Nigel Farage hiring the devil's own law firm, Carter-Ruck, to respond to the Mail on Sunday's story that claimed Farage was personally "infected with Putinism".

    While Farage doesn't look out of place on Carter-Ruck's client list (The Church Of Scientology, Simon Cowell, Chelsea FC, Qatar, etc) we're not sure they're the best firm to hire if you're looking to scrub the taint of Putin.

    Not least because, Carter-Ruck head honcho Nigel Tait was specifically named in the House of Commons in 2022 as one of the "amoral" lawyers in the profession aiding Russian interests in the UK courts at the expense of British citizens.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,811
    .

    kle4 said:

    My dad once tried to convince me that P*** was no different to Brit (indeed, I could use it without a filter in most publications), but he did accept that people he had referred to by the term when at school he did not know exactly where they came from*, which undercut his point a little.

    *other than Slough.

    And don't get me started on "subcontinent", what on earth makes Europe a continent and India only sub?
    Because it isn't a continent?

    *Apologies if you were being deliberately thick for comic effect.
    It's not a subcontinent either, it's part of Asia just as Europe is. Are you doing some meta thing here, being deliberately thick about being deliberately thick?
    Oh OK, we're not supposed to use the accepted definitions of continents because it upsets you. Do let me know if there's any other completely non-contentious geographical terms you've got sand in your fanny about.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    I wonder what first attracted him to Reform?

    Interesting he apologises to Farage and Reform but not to Sunak?

    A volunteer Reform UK canvasser has been filmed calling Rishi Sunak a “f---ing P---” by an undercover reporter.

    Channel 4 News filmed the remarks in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is running to be MP, by Andrew Parker.

    “I’ve always been a Tory voter,” he said. “But what annoys me is that f---ing P--- we’ve got in. What good is he? You tell me, you know. He’s just wet. F---ing useless.”

    In a statement, Mr Parker said: “I would like to make it clear that neither Nigel Farage personally or the Reform Party are aware of my personal views on immigration.”

    He added: “I would therefore like to apologise profusely to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party if my personal views have reflected badly on them and brought them into disrepute as this was not my intention.

    Mr Farage said: “I am dismayed by the reported comments of a handful of people associated with my local campaign, particularly those who are volunteers. They will no longer be with the campaign.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

    It’s hard to overlook his complete ignorance of the sub continent but let’s face it, there is no beginning to his ignorance. It is infinite.
    A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin and racism.
    Yet Sean is voting Labour.
    He says he is voting Labour. Will he though?

    Didn’t he have a Damascene conversion on the way to the Brexit polling station in 2016?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited June 27

    Legal/Reform. A tale of two Nigels

    We were interested to see Nigel Farage hiring the devil's own law firm, Carter-Ruck, to respond to the Mail on Sunday's story that claimed Farage was personally "infected with Putinism".

    While Farage doesn't look out of place on Carter-Ruck's client list (The Church Of Scientology, Simon Cowell, Chelsea FC, Qatar, etc) we're not sure they're the best firm to hire if you're looking to scrub the taint of Putin.

    Not least because, Carter-Ruck head honcho Nigel Tait was specifically named in the House of Commons in 2022 as one of the "amoral" lawyers in the profession aiding Russian interests in the UK courts at the expense of British citizens.

    Hiring them is an admission it is true. At the very least it is acceptable as a general characterisation without being literal, since politics allows for such things.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,811
    .

    Legal/Reform. A tale of two Nigels

    We were interested to see Nigel Farage hiring the devil's own law firm, Carter-Ruck, to respond to the Mail on Sunday's story that claimed Farage was personally "infected with Putinism".

    While Farage doesn't look out of place on Carter-Ruck's client list (The Church Of Scientology, Simon Cowell, Chelsea FC, Qatar, etc) we're not sure they're the best firm to hire if you're looking to scrub the taint of Putin.

    Not least because, Carter-Ruck head honcho Nigel Tait was specifically named in the House of Commons in 2022 as one of the "amoral" lawyers in the profession aiding Russian interests in the UK courts at the expense of British citizens.

    The do seem to have got a result in this instance though.
This discussion has been closed.