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The trend is not Sunak’s friend with Savanta and Opinium is no barrel of laughs

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  • Big_IanBig_Ian Posts: 67

    Questions....

    What happens if 2 parties are level on seats vying to be the Opposition? Who becomes LOTO? Would it go to most votes?

    Will there be any 4-way leader debates before 4 July with Davey, Farage, Starmer, Sunak?

    Thanks!

    DC

    Speaker decides who is LOTO.

    I suppose LOTO can change mid-parliament, can it, if by-elections change who is the second largest parliamentary party?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.

    When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.

    You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled

    But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
    Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
    Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way

    But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE

    Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
    Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,879

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.

    Seriously? I still think they could get 120-130.

    3rd behind Ref in votes?

    4th behind LDs and who else in seats?

    Thanks Sean.
    Either behind Reform or SNP in seats. This election is the Conservatives’ end.
    I think they will end up in 3rd place with votes (behind Labour and Reform) but a decent second place in seats.
    I despair if Reform come second in votes.

    Not to do a Liz Truss, but that would be a disgrace.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,410
    Chameleon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RefUK up to 6 MPs with New Statesman's model, from 4 previously. One of them is Mid Bucks, which I personally don't believe for a minute.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts

    The money on the night will be made on voting with the pre-existing evidence and against the MRPs in indiv idual seats. The swings are so far beyond usual (and a new party is expected to be mid teens) that MRPs will likely get individual seats wildly wrong, but in aggregate they'll get the result correct.
    Mid Bucks is a mostly posh middle-class seat, so not sure how their model is allocating it to RefUK. Hornchurch & Upminster makes more sense given its demographics.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,453

    MattW said:

    My photo for today.

    Probably the most Leeanderthal street in Ashfield.

    About 40% with Reform placards. There are more placards being posted, especially for Reform in Lee Anderson's old patch, and for the Ashfield Independents.



    This was on his Twitter feed last week. Roberts Avenue, Huthwaite.

    https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1801209100618829890

    Lee Anderson is likely one of Reform's most moderate and competent candidates.
    Second best known?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,851
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sean_F said:

    I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.

    I don't see that after Farage's Ukraine comments.
    Did Farage get high on his own supply and thought he could really tell "his truth" without repercussion or was it a accidental big slip of the mask?
    Maybe so. I can't understand why he would say something that was more likely to lose than win votes.
    Because he’s more concerned about losing favour with MAGA voters in the US than with voters in the UK?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,879
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.

    When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.

    You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled

    But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
    Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
    Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way

    But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE

    Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
    Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
    The UK according to some people here. 😉
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    MikeL said:

    So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.

    And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.

    So why is Con doing so disastrously?

    It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.

    I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.

    I don’t think it has anything to do with left/right, more the incompetence/sleaze aspects.

    The whole insider info betting thing is just ridiculous. Those that did this should be publicly flogged!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.

    When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.

    You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled

    But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
    Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
    Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way

    But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE

    Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
    Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
    Denmark. The left adopted some seriously hard right positions - like bulldozing ethnic ghettoes - and is now reaping the reward

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/27/denmark-ghetto-law-eviction-non-western-residents-housing-estates
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 963

    Nunu5 said:

    Mail attacking Farage full on.

    What did you expect. This is the paper that nixed Peter Hitchens column for the month before one general election when he was in his "destroy the Tories" phase.
    He will get his wish......just a bit late
    He is now furiously telling people to Vote Tory because however bad they are, Starmer is a Pabloist Trot who will wreck the place good and proper.
    Yeah. He is never happy. He loves to be miserable.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    edited June 22
    Duplicate
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.

    When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.

    You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled

    But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
    Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
    Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way

    But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE

    Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
    Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
    Plenty of examples from the last century however. And every one fucking awful.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,441
    Carnyx said:

    While we are talking about Pompey - interesting story about death watch beetle evolution research and HMS Victory.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/22/nelson-hms-victory-gives-scientists-vital-dna-for-battle-against-deathwatch-beetle

    Talking of old ships I stumbled across a great doc on iPlayer about the Vasa. Well worth watching, the comparisons and contrasts with the Mary Rose are interesting in terms of what was preserved or not because of the different waters they were in (they don’t compare it just interesting if you know a little about the MR).

  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,070
    MikeL said:

    So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.

    And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.

    So why is Con doing so disastrously?

    It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.

    I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.

    Well the working class and middle class Tories also now hate each other's guts, so there is that.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,805
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.

    When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.

    You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled

    But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
    Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
    Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way

    But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE

    Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
    Which would then take at least ten years to sort out the replacement.

    And you're not getting your wish for ten plus years of hard right government if the replacement isn't competent.

    So where do you find your competent, non-corrupt, hard working and lucky group of hard right politicians ?
    Dunno. But the death of the Tories is the first and necessary step
    It’s interesting, isn’t it. I don’t hold a candle for REF and Farage. But there is a whiff of death about the Tory Party, beyond the usual clapped out government vibes. I do think Farage has hit on something when he says the brand is done: I have thought this for some time.

    The right will reorganise if the Tories fall. But I HOPE that it reorganises under someone other than Farage.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,701
    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    DavidL said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    DavidL said:

    First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit

    With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
    Might have to wait until the morning!
    I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:

    First count
    First Tory win possibilities
    Potential Portillo moments
    Tory leadership contender counts
    Reform seats
    etc.
    I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
    Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
    Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
    Yes, but Osborne is not to my taste to put it mildly.
    He’s great with Balls as a double act
    All it does for me is highlight how desperately annoying and up his own rear I find Osborne. I tried to listen to their podcast and stopped ten minutes in after shouting "ITS YOUR FUCKING FAULT YOU WERE CHANCELLOR FOR SIX FUCKING YEARS". Fortunately the lab door was closed and no one heard me.
    Rory Stewart is far far worse with his effete pathetic tweets expressing astonishment at 2.4m migrants in 3 years. Like wow how did that happen

    He’s a fucking Tory politician whose job is analysing politics and economics for a podcast. Its like Gareth Southgate expressing astonishment that France has some good players
    Gareth Sunak :lol:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,453

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sean_F said:

    I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.

    I don't see that after Farage's Ukraine comments.
    Did Farage get high on his own supply and thought he could really tell "his truth" without repercussion or was it a accidental big slip of the mask?
    Maybe so. I can't understand why he would say something that was more likely to lose than win votes.
    Because he’s more concerned about losing favour with MAGA voters in the US than with voters in the UK?
    Well, the one MAGA voter...
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,115
    It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.

    Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,291
    tyson said:

    Sean_F said:

    I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.

    We go back a long time on this site Sean (me and thee), and I think your neck is well worth paying attention to.

    And it may well be right. As a long standing poll watcher, in previous GE's, although the polls have been horribly wrong sometimes, 1992 springs to mind. 2017 poor. Not great in 2015. But for all these it was the Labour share that wasn't great. The polls were pretty accurate for the Tories. It wasn't so much the shy Tory voter, it was the flakey Labour voter, or the Corbyn surge that wasn't captured.
    Pedigree post, Tyson.

    Must say this is starting to have a whiff of 1997 about it. Punters could see what was happening then but just didn't believe it.

    Not quite sure I can believe what I am seeing myself.
  • NovoNovo Posts: 60
    Friends with military connections tell me that the D-Day condemnation of R.S is pretty universal within our armed forces, Some are saying the none of them will vote for R.S.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,695
    edited June 22
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.

    And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.

    So why is Con doing so disastrously?

    It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.

    I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.

    I don’t think it has anything to do with left/right, more the incompetence/sleaze aspects.

    The whole insider info betting thing is just ridiculous. Those that did this should be publicly flogged!
    Agreed. It's broadly two things:

    1) What you said.

    2) Economic situation caused by Covid / Ukraine / demographics which has led to incumbents everywhere being in big trouble - eg Trudeau about to take a huge beating after 3 terms, to be replaced by the Conservatives. It doesn't matter who is in Government or what they do, the public is going to be very unhappy.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,990
    I've never been to Northern Ireland. Or the Republic, for that matter.

    Cities I have been to but never left the station:
    Dundee
    Perth
    Stirling
    Hereford
    Plymouth
    Truro
    Portsmouth
    Southampton
    Peterborough
    Preston

    I've only travelled through Exeter and Winchester, and never baled.

    Never been to or through Canterbury.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,879
    edited June 22
    Andy_JS said:

    MattW said:

    My photo for today.

    Probably the most Leeanderthal street in Ashfield.

    About 40% with Reform placards. There are more placards being posted, especially for Reform in Lee Anderson's old patch, and for the Ashfield Independents.



    This was on his Twitter feed last week. Roberts Avenue, Huthwaite.

    https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1801209100618829890

    Full of bungalows.
    Yes - mainly brick built 1970s by the look of it.

    So likely retired working class getting quite old, or people who have inherited or purchased from such. Maybe empty nesters. I make it just a couple of hundred metres from Lee Anderson's family roots, but I *may* be wrong on that.

    We have a lot of that, which gives me hope in my war on anti-wheelchair barriers; some of the people who have been happy to have there will soon have mobility scooters.

    3 bed 1970s detached bungalows probably ~180-200k at present.

    Not the best area to be - that gets more away from the centre as you go down the hill, and it's a long walk up a fairly formidable hill to amenities in the village high street, or a bus or car journey. But a peaceful cul-de-sac.
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 257
    Funnily enough I was on the St Malo sailing yesterday. Dangerously close to crossing paths with Leon.

    The three course meal with cheese course and a bottle of red is reccomended. You don't get that on Ryanair (or BA Club, for that matter)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Farooq said:

    The Tories are leftists and Denmark is really right wing.
    Jesus fucking Christ.

    Only on PB.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,532
    tyson said:

    It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.

    Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.

    "Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage." ?

    Sounds like the whiteboard at BBC News HQ when planning their running order.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,851
    Big_Ian said:

    Questions....

    What happens if 2 parties are level on seats vying to be the Opposition? Who becomes LOTO? Would it go to most votes?

    Will there be any 4-way leader debates before 4 July with Davey, Farage, Starmer, Sunak?

    Thanks!

    DC

    Speaker decides who is LOTO.

    I suppose LOTO can change mid-parliament, can it, if by-elections change who is the second largest parliamentary party?
    The Commons is sovereign. They can eliminate the position, they can create two LOTOs, they can have a different LOTO at weekends.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529
    MikeL said:

    So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.

    And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.

    So why is Con doing so disastrously?

    It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.

    I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.

    1 Downing Street parties
    2 Sleaze
    3 Truss playing wild with the economy
    4 More sleaze
    5 Too many immigrants
    6 House prices too high for some
    7 House prices too low for some
    8 Yet more sleaze
    9 Not enough government spending for some
    10 Taxes too high for some
    11 Even more sleaze
    12 Time for a change
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    guybrush said:

    Funnily enough I was on the St Malo sailing yesterday. Dangerously close to crossing paths with Leon.

    The three course meal with cheese course and a bottle of red is reccomended. You don't get that on Ryanair (or BA Club, for that matter)

    You do in first ;)
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,802
    Andy_JS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RefUK up to 6 MPs with New Statesman's model, from 4 previously. One of them is Mid Bucks, which I personally don't believe for a minute.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts

    The money on the night will be made on voting with the pre-existing evidence and against the MRPs in indiv idual seats. The swings are so far beyond usual (and a new party is expected to be mid teens) that MRPs will likely get individual seats wildly wrong, but in aggregate they'll get the result correct.
    Mid Bucks is a mostly posh middle-class seat, so not sure how their model is allocating it to RefUK. Hornchurch & Upminster makes more sense given its demographics.
    Although I’d have thought Castle Point or Thurrock would be ahead in the queue.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,271
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Can't believe Leon hasn't been to Portsmouth before.

    Is that a big deal? Is it of the same level of sensation as if Roger said that he'd never been to Hartlepool? (I have no idea what Roger's "Hartlepool status" is)
    I have been to portchester castle - just somehow skipped the city

    Also never been to: Bradford, Halifax, Rochdale, Rotherham, Lancaster, Derry, Stoke on Trent, Hartlepool, or the Yorkshire dales
    You should go to the Staffordshire museum in Hanley and see the Staffordshire hoard from Brownhills. Some noom value to be had. And Lancaster is a fab place. And the Yorkshire Dales are worldbeating. I suspect the most significant place I’ve never been in the UK would be somewhere like Canterbury or Chichester.
    As for Hartlepool, the Nelson-era frigate Trincomalee is quite something, albeit in a sort of film set pretend dockland. Though the local museum next door is good. The less obvious point is Heugh Point gun battery under the lighthouse - only somewhat restored, but recalling the bombardment by the Germans in 1914. The view from it is grand, across the Tees estuary to the bulge of Yorkshire, and to the north too.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_United_Kingdom?wprov=sfla1

    Using this, the largest urban area I've never been TO is Bristol, the largest I've never at least been through is Newport.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,532
    And there we go. Farage leads BBC News at 10.

    Yet again.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    tyson said:

    It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.

    Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.

    I am working on the assumption that the misspelling of gilt edged is deliberate. It is inspired.
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 257
    RobD said:

    guybrush said:

    Funnily enough I was on the St Malo sailing yesterday. Dangerously close to crossing paths with Leon.

    The three course meal with cheese course and a bottle of red is reccomended. You don't get that on Ryanair (or BA Club, for that matter)

    You do in first ;)
    Try going first to northern France 😛
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,879
    edited June 22

    MattW said:

    My photo for today.

    Probably the most Leeanderthal street in Ashfield.

    About 40% with Reform placards. There are more placards being posted, especially for Reform in Lee Anderson's old patch, and for the Ashfield Independents.



    This was on his Twitter feed last week. Roberts Avenue, Huthwaite.

    https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1801209100618829890

    Lee Anderson is likely one of Reform's most moderate and competent candidates.
    Yes, and he knows how to do local politics - he was an excellent and attentive Councillor, I think covering that area or very close to it.

    He's playing a lot of dog whistles, though.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    guybrush said:

    RobD said:

    guybrush said:

    Funnily enough I was on the St Malo sailing yesterday. Dangerously close to crossing paths with Leon.

    The three course meal with cheese course and a bottle of red is reccomended. You don't get that on Ryanair (or BA Club, for that matter)

    You do in first ;)
    Try going first to northern France 😛
    ...with your car.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,234

    tyson said:

    Sean_F said:

    I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.

    We go back a long time on this site Sean (me and thee), and I think your neck is well worth paying attention to.

    And it may well be right. As a long standing poll watcher, in previous GE's, although the polls have been horribly wrong sometimes, 1992 springs to mind. 2017 poor. Not great in 2015. But for all these it was the Labour share that wasn't great. The polls were pretty accurate for the Tories. It wasn't so much the shy Tory voter, it was the flakey Labour voter, or the Corbyn surge that wasn't captured.
    Pedigree post, Tyson.

    Must say this is starting to have a whiff of 1997 about it. Punters could see what was happening then but just didn't believe it.

    Not quite sure I can believe what I am seeing myself.
    It’s 1924, not 1997.

    Things end.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.

    When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.

    You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled

    But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
    Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
    Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way

    But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE

    Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
    Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
    Denmark. The left adopted some seriously hard right positions - like bulldozing ethnic ghettoes - and is now reaping the reward

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/27/denmark-ghetto-law-eviction-non-western-residents-housing-estates
    A two year old anti-immigrant housing policy does not make for a 10 year a hard right government. It makes for a single policy. No Danish government is going to allow employers, for example, to dismiss women on the grounds of sex, as Reform propose.

    Talking of which, Farage complained about being debanked on the basis of his political views, but proposes that others can have the same happen to them on the grounds of sex, race, age, disability, pregnancy and sexual orientation. Weird that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905

    Farooq said:

    The Tories are leftists and Denmark is really right wing.
    Jesus fucking Christ.

    Only on PB.
    But it’s true

    https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2020/1/15/denmarks-ghetto-plan-and-the-communities-it-targets
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    I've never been to Northern Ireland. Or the Republic, for that matter.

    Cities I have been to but never left the station:
    Dundee
    Perth
    Stirling
    Hereford
    Plymouth
    Truro
    Portsmouth
    Southampton
    Peterborough
    Preston

    I've only travelled through Exeter and Winchester, and never baled.

    Never been to or through Canterbury.

    I’m overqualified in the Canterbury department.

    I’ve been to both jurisdictions in Ireland a few times but the smiling Anglophobia grates after a while. I let the (American) wife do the talking when we do.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.

    And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.

    So why is Con doing so disastrously?

    It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.

    I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.

    I don’t think it has anything to do with left/right, more the incompetence/sleaze aspects.

    The whole insider info betting thing is just ridiculous. Those that did this should be publicly flogged!
    Agreed. It's broadly two things:

    1) What you said.

    2) Economic situation caused by Covid / Ukraine / demographics which has led to incumbents everywhere being in big trouble - eg Trudeau about to take a huge beating after 3 terms, to be replaced by the Conservatives. It doesn't matter who is in Government or what they do, the public is going to be very unhappy.
    Not helped, I suspect, by ever growing sense of entitlement.

    No matter how well many people do they think they're entitled to be better off and that its the government's job to make it so.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,871
    I see the IDF is ‘investigating’ again.

    ‘Look guys, you just have to stop strapping wounded Palestinians to the bonnets of your vehicles, or at least don’t get filmed while doing it.’
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,929
    Leon said:

    Also never been to: Bradford, Halifax, Rochdale, Rotherham, Lancaster, Derry, Stoke on Trent, Hartlepool, or the Yorkshire dales

    I've done three of those...
    Leon said:

    Or Grimsby or Hull

    ...and two of those...
    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    ...not that one...
    DougSeal said:

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/

    ...Leicester...

    From your list, my Top 3 Never Visited are: Bristol, Leicester and Cardiff

    ...Leicester, Nottingham, Stoke-on-Trent...

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,548
    edited June 22
    Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.

    It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.

    Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,650

    tyson said:

    It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.

    Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.

    Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken

    I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.

    Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”

    This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.


    The offer of punishing one's enemies is powerful, and we will make better excuses to attain it than even the most elaborate SKS defence of Corbyn.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    That PeoplePolling poll from the 18th is looking like a massive outlier.

    Have we heard from Goodwin recently?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,487
    algarkirk said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    DavidL said:

    First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit

    With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
    Might have to wait until the morning!
    I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:

    First count
    First Tory win possibilities
    Potential Portillo moments
    Tory leadership contender counts
    Reform seats
    etc.
    I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
    Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
    Age has caught up with me; bed and Radio 4 joint with R5, slower, soporific, Nick Robinson et al, possible Jim Naughtie, doze in the boring hours, no attempt to be first to know. No saloon cowboy graphics. no celeb drunks on Thames boats. And, as with all radio, better pictures.
    I bumped into three fellow Lib Dems from my own local party while campaigning today in Mid Dunbartonshire.
    I have "been volunteered" to attend my local count on election night.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,757
    edited June 22
    My wife has gone to our holiday home, while I stay at home campaigning. It is in Suffolk Coastal. Lots of LD posters and only delivery is from the LDs and it is not the Royal Mail free delivery as we are not on the electoral register. Bit weird as Coffey has a 20,000 majority and that is over Lab not the LDs
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.

    When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.

    You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled

    But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
    Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
    Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way

    But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE

    Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
    Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
    Denmark. The left adopted some seriously hard right positions - like bulldozing ethnic ghettoes - and is now reaping the reward

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/27/denmark-ghetto-law-eviction-non-western-residents-housing-estates
    A two year old anti-immigrant housing policy does not make for a 10 year a hard right government. It makes for a single policy. No Danish government is going to allow employers, for example, to dismiss women on the grounds of sex, as Reform propose.

    Talking of which, Farage complained about being debanked on the basis of his political views, but proposes that others can have the same happen to them on the grounds of sex, race, age, disability, pregnancy and sexual orientation. Weird that.
    Denmark also doing Rwanda, if it can

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/un-committee-criticizes-denmark-third-country-plans-asylum-seekers-2023-11-28/

    Seriously this debate is pointless. All this hard right stuff is coming to every western country. It will either be via actual hard right parties (Italy France?) or via left wing parties desperately adopting right wing policies (Denmark)

    I’m simply right and you are wrong
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,487
    HYUFD said:

    Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.

    It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.

    Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931

    Err, 42 to 27 is more like 3:2 (42 to 28 would be exactly 3:2).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,548
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.

    And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.

    So why is Con doing so disastrously?

    It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.

    I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.

    I don’t think it has anything to do with left/right, more the incompetence/sleaze aspects.

    The whole insider info betting thing is just ridiculous. Those that did this should be publicly flogged!
    Agreed. It's broadly two things:

    1) What you said.

    2) Economic situation caused by Covid / Ukraine / demographics which has led to incumbents everywhere being in big trouble - eg Trudeau about to take a huge beating after 3 terms, to be replaced by the Conservatives. It doesn't matter who is in Government or what they do, the public is going to be very unhappy.
    Plus Macron's party about to lose heavily to Le Pen, even now Biden only level pegging with Trump and Australian Labor now also near tied with the Coalition. The SPD miles behind the CDU in Germany. Even Modi lost his majority in India as did the ANC in SA.

    Only really Meloni of significant democratically elected leaders is still clearly ahead in the polls
  • And there we go. Farage leads BBC News at 10.

    Yet again.

    As I said this morning:

    "He has done it again. He has set off a s***storm infuriating fashionable opinion and getting ubiquitous publicity with all the fury, with fashionable opinions glee that he has "ratnered" himself then turning in the following days to dispair as they find it is actually making him more popular as millions are fed up with our leaders wasting our money trying to be world policeman interfering in foreign disputes, and think "anyway, at least Putin dosent allow all that trans bollocks in Russia"."
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,149
    edited June 22
    Andy_JS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RefUK up to 6 MPs with New Statesman's model, from 4 previously. One of them is Mid Bucks, which I personally don't believe for a minute.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts

    The money on the night will be made on voting with the pre-existing evidence and against the MRPs in indiv idual seats. The swings are so far beyond usual (and a new party is expected to be mid teens) that MRPs will likely get individual seats wildly wrong, but in aggregate they'll get the result correct.
    Mid Bucks is a mostly posh middle-class seat, so not sure how their model is allocating it to RefUK. Hornchurch & Upminster makes more sense given its demographics.
    Is it what happens if you take about half the Conservative share and give it to Reform in places where Lib and Lab start too far behind?

    (The H+U projection is Ref 27.6 Lab 26.7 Con 25.8, compared with notionals of Con 65.4 Lab 22.9 no Ref obviously in 2019. Seems like an awfully small Labour advance.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,548
    tyson said:

    It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.

    Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.

    Farage is excluded from the final Sunak v Starmer debate on Wednesday and I suspect some Tories who went Reform will have second thoughts after his Nato critical statements
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,069
    11 more days of campaigning and new polls being released.

    And, if anything, we are continuing to see the Tory vote share drift rather than rebound back.

    Of course we don't know which poll is right, but no traditional polls have exceeded 25% for over 2 weeks.

    I think they need some small recovery to be confident of 100+ seats. Maybe Farage's Putinphilia will help, but who knows with Reform voters.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    tyson said:

    It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.

    Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.

    Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken

    I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.

    Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”

    This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.


    When I was 15 in 1989 a friend introduced me to Morrissey and The Smiths. Mozza had an album out which contained a song called “Bengali in Platforms” with the refrain “life is hard enough when you belong here”. At the age of 15 I posited “that’s a bit racist”. “ no, it’s IRONIC” replied my friend “He hates Thatcher so he can’t be resist”

    Evidence of the racist opinions of Stephen Patrick Morrissey continued to grow over the next 30 years but nothing, nothing, would shake my friends devotion until quite recently when he said “Yeah, maybe Johnny Marr was the talented one after all”

    It’s the same with Farage and Trump. Fans project what they want onto them. The faith will not be broken.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,548
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.

    When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.

    You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled

    But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
    Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
    Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way

    But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE

    Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
    Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
    Italy and Sweden but only with the support of the main centre right party too
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874

    OnboardG1 said:

    DavidL said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    DavidL said:

    First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit

    With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
    Might have to wait until the morning!
    I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:

    First count
    First Tory win possibilities
    Potential Portillo moments
    Tory leadership contender counts
    Reform seats
    etc.
    I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
    Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
    Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
    Yes, but Osborne is not to my taste to put it mildly.
    He’s great with Balls as a double act
    He is.
    Have you seen the ITV 2017 coverage? I think it's still on YouTube.
    The first five minutes after the exit poll are just Osborne laughing hysterically at the result, before he manges some cock and bull story about how he'd always respected May and worked very well with her.... before laughing for another five minutes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,548

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.

    Who's beating them in seats? Labour, Lib Dems and... SNP? Reform??
    Very very hard to see how the Tories finish 4th in seats
    But if anyone can do it, it’s Sunak. Have more faith in him!
    Sunak is quite simply the worst leader the Conservatives have had in 200 years. He has destroyed them.
    Worse than Truss? She took seven weeks to drive Conservative ratings off the cliff edge. At least Sunak caused hideous damage more slowly.
    Sunak has also slashed inflation from the level Truss left
  • NovoNovo Posts: 60
    If LDs become the opposition in the Commons then it opens the way to an epic election in 2029 fought about largely regarding the. UK rejoining the EU. It is bitterly disappointing that it has hardly got a mention in this campaign despite a growing majority in favour of rejoining. Extending voting rights to 16-17 yr olds could be decisive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,548
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.

    When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.

    You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled

    But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
    Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
    Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way

    But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE

    Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
    Which would then take at least ten years to sort out the replacement.

    And you're not getting your wish for ten plus years of hard right government if the replacement isn't competent.

    So where do you find your competent, non-corrupt, hard working and lucky group of hard right politicians ?
    Dunno. But the death of the Tories is the first and necessary step
    Farage can't become PM without Tory votes
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.

    When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.

    You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled

    But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
    Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
    Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way

    But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE

    Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
    Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
    Denmark. The left adopted some seriously hard right positions - like bulldozing ethnic ghettoes - and is now reaping the reward

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/27/denmark-ghetto-law-eviction-non-western-residents-housing-estates
    A two year old anti-immigrant housing policy does not make for a 10 year a hard right government. It makes for a single policy. No Danish government is going to allow employers, for example, to dismiss women on the grounds of sex, as Reform propose.

    Talking of which, Farage complained about being debanked on the basis of his political views, but proposes that others can have the same happen to them on the grounds of sex, race, age, disability, pregnancy and sexual orientation. Weird that.
    Denmark also doing Rwanda, if it can

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/un-committee-criticizes-denmark-third-country-plans-asylum-seekers-2023-11-28/

    Seriously this debate is pointless. All this hard right stuff is coming to every western country. It will either be via actual hard right parties (Italy France?) or via left wing parties desperately adopting right wing policies (Denmark)

    I’m simply right and you are wrong
    I tire of pointing this out so it will be the last time.

    I’m cleverer than you.
  • HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.

    Who's beating them in seats? Labour, Lib Dems and... SNP? Reform??
    Very very hard to see how the Tories finish 4th in seats
    But if anyone can do it, it’s Sunak. Have more faith in him!
    Sunak is quite simply the worst leader the Conservatives have had in 200 years. He has destroyed them.
    Worse than Truss? She took seven weeks to drive Conservative ratings off the cliff edge. At least Sunak caused hideous damage more slowly.
    Sunak has also slashed inflation from the level Truss left
    The gas markets and Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee did that. Not Sunak.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,983
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    If holidays count, I’ve been to more places in Central America than south of the Tweed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833

    algarkirk said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    DavidL said:

    First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit

    With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
    Might have to wait until the morning!
    I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:

    First count
    First Tory win possibilities
    Potential Portillo moments
    Tory leadership contender counts
    Reform seats
    etc.
    I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
    Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
    Age has caught up with me; bed and Radio 4 joint with R5, slower, soporific, Nick Robinson et al, possible Jim Naughtie, doze in the boring hours, no attempt to be first to know. No saloon cowboy graphics. no celeb drunks on Thames boats. And, as with all radio, better pictures.
    I bumped into three fellow Lib Dems from my own local party while campaigning today in Mid Dunbartonshire.
    I have "been volunteered" to attend my local count on election night.
    Why is that seat so much better for the LDs than all those around?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,695
    edited June 22
    Be careful about not attaching too much weight to one day.

    BBC is very careful re time allocation - and they'll be measuring it over the whole campaign. If Farage has had a lot of exposure yesterday, today (and maybe tomorrow) it's almost certian he'll then get very little in the final 10 days.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,548
    Novo said:

    If LDs become the opposition in the Commons then it opens the way to an epic election in 2029 fought about largely regarding the. UK rejoining the EU. It is bitterly disappointing that it has hardly got a mention in this campaign despite a growing majority in favour of rejoining. Extending voting rights to 16-17 yr olds could be decisive.

    Hardly, the Tories and Reform would almost certainly have merged by 2029 if the LDs were the main opposition on seats to a Starmer government and we still have FPTP.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,678

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/
    From your list, my Top 3 Never Visited are: Bristol, Leicester and Cardiff
    Belfast, Sale, Derry.

    You go most everywhere as a twitcher. But still never NI.
    Northern Ireland is lovely - despite its reputation and despite some depressing weather and towns. Belfast is fascinating with a spectacular location and the coast and countryside are lush
    Agreed and make sure you go on a walking political tour.

    Assembled at Divis Tower and met first tour guide who was an IRA maze veteran. Hour and a half with him walking around the Falls Road area and then handed over to a UVF guy at one of the peace gates (think checkpoint charlie with a bigger wall) for an hour and a half on the Shankhill.

    Saw sights you think you will never see in the UK like houses where the whole rear of the house and its garden was caged in a steele grille to stop molotov cocktails coming over the wall.

    IRA guy, now a republican journalist was quite nuanced. UVF just ranted about terrorists which got a bit tedious. IRA guy was clearly something of a local hero as numerous vehicles tooted their horn as they passed him.

    One interesting thing is that on the Shankhill side, the wall was covered in Graffitti, on the Falls side, none, but a few murals. The Shankhill side seemed far more chavvy.

    Most tourists were European. We were the only English. Which was fun. Dont make it too obvious I am English on one side, don't make it too obvious I'm a Taig (Catholic) on the other.

    Best 3 hours in many years though.
    To delve back up this thread:
    The largest British city to which I have never been is Norwich.
    I think I've been to all Leon's lengthy lost except Derry. Whitby, Rotherham, Lancaster, Stoke, the Yorkshire Dales (hell, I was there today - how can you not have been to England's second best National Park?)
    Sale isn't as big as it suddenly appears. For a long time the population was about 60000 odd - then a few years back it suddenly leapt to 140000 odd. Delving into this, it appears Wythenshawe has suddenly and arbitrarily been lumped in with Sale. I can see no reason for this.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,835
    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.

    Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.

    Farage is excluded from the final Sunak v Starmer debate on Wednesday and I suspect some Tories who went Reform will have second thoughts after his Nato critical statements
    How much influence have any of these debates had?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    HYUFD said:

    Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.

    It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.

    Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931

    Did you do maths at school HY?

    1983 42.4% to 27.6% = 1.54 to 1
    1931 55.0% to 30.6% = 1.79 to 1

    Today's polls:
    Opinium 40% to 20% = 2.0 to 1
    Savanta 42% to 19% = 2.21 to 1
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,532

    That PeoplePolling poll from the 18th is looking like a massive outlier.

    Have we heard from Goodwin recently?

    It's late. So I briefly read that as "the peoplePolling poll from the 18th century".

    Whigs triumph.

  • MikeL said:

    Be careful about not attaching too much weight to one day.

    BBC is very careful re time allocation over the whole campaign. If Farage has had a lot of eposure yesterday, today (and maybe tomorrow) it's almost certian he'll then get very little in the final 10 days.

    Depends what other grenades he can lob that get the great and good bouncing up and down with self righteous outrage.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,548
    edited June 22

    HYUFD said:

    Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.

    It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.

    Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931

    Err, 42 to 27 is more like 3:2 (42 to 28 would be exactly 3:2).
    It is about as close to 2:1 as the 55% Conservatives 30% Labour was in 1931
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,859
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.

    Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.

    Farage is excluded from the final Sunak v Starmer debate on Wednesday and I suspect some Tories who went Reform will have second thoughts after his Nato critical statements
    How much influence have any of these debates had?
    Not much as few watch them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,548
    kjh said:

    My wife has gone to our holiday home, while I stay at home campaigning. It is in Suffolk Coastal. Lots of LD posters and only delivery is from the LDs and it is not the Royal Mail free delivery as we are not on the electoral register. Bit weird as Coffey has a 20,000 majority and that is over Lab not the LDs

    In that case may help her stay on as Labour are her main challengers so anti Tory voters going LD helps her
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,879

    And there we go. Farage leads BBC News at 10.

    Yet again.

    As I said this morning:

    "He has done it again. He has set off a s***storm infuriating fashionable opinion and getting ubiquitous publicity with all the fury, with fashionable opinions glee that he has "ratnered" himself then turning in the following days to dispair as they find it is actually making him more popular as millions are fed up with our leaders wasting our money trying to be world policeman interfering in foreign disputes, and think "anyway, at least Putin dosent allow all that trans bollocks in Russia"."
    Yeah, we get that you suckle at the teet of Putin.

    The rest of the country does not.
  • NovoNovo Posts: 60
    HYUFD said:

    Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.

    It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.

    Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931

    HYUFD said:

    Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.

    It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.

    Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931



    No, 1.56-1
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,344
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.

    When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.

    You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled

    But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
    Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
    Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way

    But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE

    Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
    Is there a country in Europe that’s had a hard right government for 10 years this century? Hungary I guess but that’s not what I’d call a huge success. Where is this grand exemplar of yours?
    Denmark. The left adopted some seriously hard right positions - like bulldozing ethnic ghettoes - and is now reaping the reward

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/27/denmark-ghetto-law-eviction-non-western-residents-housing-estates
    A two year old anti-immigrant housing policy does not make for a 10 year a hard right government. It makes for a single policy. No Danish government is going to allow employers, for example, to dismiss women on the grounds of sex, as Reform propose.

    Talking of which, Farage complained about being debanked on the basis of his political views, but proposes that others can have the same happen to them on the grounds of sex, race, age, disability, pregnancy and sexual orientation. Weird that.
    I don't think the scandinavia comparison works that well for Britain. In some ways these countries are comparable to Britain 60 years ago with where they are at with immigration and creating a multicultural society, the influx is so recent, much of it has happened in the last 10 years. In Finland there is an issue where immigrants are highly concentrated in specific areas that get a bad reputation, not as bad perhaps as Sweden.

    One thing that does seem to have been inherited from Britain is a hypersensitivity about race and causing offence. My son played football against a team from an immigrant ghetto in the childrens league which is supposedly about 'fair play'. At the end the kids from the immigrant team were rude to my sons team, even after they won, totally against the spirit of the league. According to our coach, this happens all the time, but no one complains because of 'racism'.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,271
    On the geographist list, biggest cities I've not set foot outside a public transport interchange in:

    Bristol, Coventry, Derby, Portsmouth, Brighton, Plymouth, Northampton, Bournemouth, Swindon, Swansea
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet for all that the Labour vote is lower than in 1997 with both Survation and Opinium as is the LD vote.

    It is the Reform vote really squeezing the Tories, indeed both pollsters now have Reform getting the same voteshare as the LDs got in 1997. Albeit the Tories still remain second on votes.

    Should also be pointed out in 1983 the Conservatives got 42% and Labour 27%, so almost 2:1 and indeed closer to 2:1 than 1931

    Err, 42 to 27 is more like 3:2 (42 to 28 would be exactly 3:2).
    It is about as close to 2:1 as the 55% Conservatives 30% Labour was in 1931
    Not even that. See my post @ 10:31
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.

    Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.

    Farage is excluded from the final Sunak v Starmer debate on Wednesday and I suspect some Tories who went Reform will have second thoughts after his Nato critical statements
    How much influence have any of these debates had?
    As was astutely observed at the beginning, campaigns generally trundle along pretty much unaffected by anything that takes place within them. Which does make Mrs May’s sterling performance stand out all the more.
  • And there we go. Farage leads BBC News at 10.

    Yet again.

    As I said this morning:

    "He has done it again. He has set off a s***storm infuriating fashionable opinion and getting ubiquitous publicity with all the fury, with fashionable opinions glee that he has "ratnered" himself then turning in the following days to dispair as they find it is actually making him more popular as millions are fed up with our leaders wasting our money trying to be world policeman interfering in foreign disputes, and think "anyway, at least Putin dosent allow all that trans bollocks in Russia"."
    Yeah, we get that you suckle at the teet of Putin.

    The rest of the country does not.
    Shoot the messenger if you want, it's not going to change anything comrade.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,410
    edited June 22
    Maybe this is all part of Farage's 10D chess plan.

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1804565965679845504

    "Nigel Farage
    @Nigel_Farage
    🚨 ELECTION INTERFERENCE ALERT 🚨

    Big Tech giant @Google has BLOCKED our Ad Accounts. They are trying to stop the Reform message.

    I hope @MattBrittin can look into this issue as a matter of urgency. We want action."
  • NovoNovo Posts: 60
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Also never been to: Bradford, Halifax, Rochdale, Rotherham, Lancaster, Derry, Stoke on Trent, Hartlepool, or the Yorkshire dales

    I've done three of those...
    Leon said:

    Or Grimsby or Hull

    ...and two of those...
    Leon said:

    Or Whitby

    ...not that one...
    DougSeal said:

    What’s the largest British city you’ve never been to. Aberdeen for me. Can’t think of a bigger one I’ve never visited for at least a day.

    https://www.thegeographist.com/uk-cities-population-1000/

    ...Leicester...

    From your list, my Top 3 Never Visited are: Bristol, Leicester and Cardiff

    ...Leicester, Nottingham, Stoke-on-Trent...

    Done all these, most many times. Canterbury also missing from my list. But religion not my strong point!
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,983
    So can anyone beat my total missed of 94 out of the top 100?
  • MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 172
    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.

    And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.

    So why is Con doing so disastrously?

    It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.

    I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.

    I don’t think it has anything to do with left/right, more the incompetence/sleaze aspects.

    The whole insider info betting thing is just ridiculous. Those that did this should be publicly flogged!
    Agreed. It's broadly two things:

    1) What you said.

    2) Economic situation caused by Covid / Ukraine / demographics which has led to incumbents everywhere being in big trouble - eg Trudeau about to take a huge beating after 3 terms, to be replaced by the Conservatives. It doesn't matter who is in Government or what they do, the public is going to be very unhappy.
    Plus Macron's party about to lose heavily to Le Pen, even now Biden only level pegging with Trump and Australian Labor now also near tied with the Coalition. The SPD miles behind the CDU in Germany. Even Modi lost his majority in India as did the ANC in SA.

    Only really Meloni of significant democratically elected leaders is still clearly ahead in the polls
    Being a bit nasty to get your way is understandable but not admirable. It’s uncomfortable but you can do it for good reason.

    But who really wants to identify with an insular, even toxic country? The rivers say it all.

    It’s the end of the line.
    We want off.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,501
    Pro_Rata said:

    On the geographist list, biggest cities I've not set foot outside a public transport interchange in:

    Bristol, Coventry, Derby, Portsmouth, Brighton, Plymouth, Northampton, Bournemouth, Swindon, Swansea

    Belfast, Hull and Reading for me.

    Though I have been to every county in England and Wales.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,410

    Andy_JS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RefUK up to 6 MPs with New Statesman's model, from 4 previously. One of them is Mid Bucks, which I personally don't believe for a minute.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts

    The money on the night will be made on voting with the pre-existing evidence and against the MRPs in indiv idual seats. The swings are so far beyond usual (and a new party is expected to be mid teens) that MRPs will likely get individual seats wildly wrong, but in aggregate they'll get the result correct.
    Mid Bucks is a mostly posh middle-class seat, so not sure how their model is allocating it to RefUK. Hornchurch & Upminster makes more sense given its demographics.
    Although I’d have thought Castle Point or Thurrock would be ahead in the queue.
    Castle Point yes, Thurrock no, with their model.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Big_Ian said:

    Questions....

    What happens if 2 parties are level on seats vying to be the Opposition? Who becomes LOTO? Would it go to most votes?

    Will there be any 4-way leader debates before 4 July with Davey, Farage, Starmer, Sunak?

    Thanks!

    DC

    Speaker decides who is LOTO.

    I suppose LOTO can change mid-parliament, can it, if by-elections change who is the second largest parliamentary party?
    The Prime Minister can change too. And not just within its own party.
    In September 2019 there was a very very slim chance, after Johnson kicked out 20 of his own MPs to leave the Conservatives on just 288.

    A (much) better Leader of the Opposition than Corbyn could've exploited that and gone for a 'okay, let's stop THIS Brexit' and called for a VoNC. Get the other parties on board, get Ken Clarke and his merry band of 20 MPs on board, and you have 340 MPs or so to switch the government.

    No General Election required at all.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,532
    Greens to take 4 seats in latest Newstatesman prediction:


    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts?mrfhud=true
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,069

    tyson said:

    It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.

    Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.

    Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken

    I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.

    Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”

    This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.


    Yes I think that's a risk I think what forums such as this can miss is - because we are all relatively well informed and interested in politics - that the (almost universal) cross party consensus regarding Ukraine and Putin is not shared by the wider public.

    Most people have not given it much thought, and Farage's Putinist arguments are superficially compelling if you have no appreciation for the defensive nature of NATO and the fact it's there to defend against the Russian Nationalist view of much of eastern Europe as Russia minor.

    So who knows which way this publicity will swing things for Reform. But it does confirm to me that I'd rather the Tories retain some rump to rebuild than be decimated and replaced by Farage.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    tyson said:

    It's not good for the Tories that Farage is hogging the oxygen this weekend with his Ukraine nonsense. I do think the Tories are FUBARed genuinely because Sunak couldn't convince his Mum to vote for him...but it really is not good at all that Farage is in the news.

    Any publicity for Farage is good publicity and free guilt edged advertising, and he's getting more than plenty. And I think from now until Election Day all we will be taking about is Farage, Reform, Farage and Farage, with more Farage. Sadly his time has come.

    Anecdote alert - pinches of salt to be taken

    I was speaking to a friend today who has always been a Tory voter. I’ve known for some time he wasn’t going to vote Tory this time, for similar reasons to me. He’s made positive noises towards SKS in the past. I have thought it more likely though that he’ll throw a protest vote to the LDs or something than actively move over to Labour.

    Anyway the topic of Farage came up and I posited that he had shot himself in the foot with the Ukraine comments. To my surprise, he told me he thought his comments were fair enough, the criticism was being stirred up by the media who are now “out to get him” because he is doing “so well” and that it made him think “better of him, because he speaks his mind.”

    This is a sample of one. So I am not going to seek to extrapolate anything from it, other than to say - time and time again, things we think should sink characters like Farage and Trump do not. And often media coverage of their gaffes actually seem to help rather than hinder them. Whether this will actually be the case or not remains to be seen.


    I suspect this will be the dividing line in the Conservative Party after the election. Do they throw their lot in with Farage or do they resist him and all he represents?
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 963
    Andy_JS said:

    Maybe this is all part of Farage's 10D chess plan.

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1804565965679845504

    "Nigel Farage
    @Nigel_Farage
    🚨 ELECTION INTERFERENCE ALERT 🚨

    Big Tech giant @Google has BLOCKED our Ad Accounts. They are trying to stop the Reform message.

    I hope @MattBrittin can look into this issue as a matter of urgency. We want action."

    If that's true, that very bad form from Google
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    I've just seen the Stamp Fairy story. Christ alive. I assumed Salmond & Sturgeon were control freaks because that was their nature, I didn't realise it was because the rest of the senior ledership were dribbling morons who couldn't be left alone for a minute.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,149
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Chameleon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RefUK up to 6 MPs with New Statesman's model, from 4 previously. One of them is Mid Bucks, which I personally don't believe for a minute.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts

    The money on the night will be made on voting with the pre-existing evidence and against the MRPs in indiv idual seats. The swings are so far beyond usual (and a new party is expected to be mid teens) that MRPs will likely get individual seats wildly wrong, but in aggregate they'll get the result correct.
    Mid Bucks is a mostly posh middle-class seat, so not sure how their model is allocating it to RefUK. Hornchurch & Upminster makes more sense given its demographics.
    Although I’d have thought Castle Point or Thurrock would be ahead in the queue.
    Castle Point yes, Thurrock no, with their model.
    Makes sense. Notionals are
    Castle Point Con 76.5(!) Lab 16.8
    Thurrock Con 60.0 Lab 33.0

    One of the reasons that Reform aren't likely to need large sheets of paper for their MP directory. In most seats, the effect of taking votes off the Conservatives isn't to elect Reform MPs, it's to make the Conservatives undertake Labour. (A message that Andrew Rosindell is pushing with all his might.) Labour need to start an insanely long way behind to avoid that effect.

    Hence the seat projections we are seeing.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,213
    This is a very large explosion as a warehouse of Russian ammunition is taken out by a small FPV quadcopter.

    https://t.me/noel_reports/13405

    I haven't seen such a large ammunition store taken out by a small drone before. I had thought that they had all been moved out of HIMARS range.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 963
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.

    When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.

    You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled

    But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
    Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
    Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way

    But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE

    Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
    Which would then take at least ten years to sort out the replacement.

    And you're not getting your wish for ten plus years of hard right government if the replacement isn't competent.

    So where do you find your competent, non-corrupt, hard working and lucky group of hard right politicians ?
    Dunno. But the death of the Tories is the first and necessary step
    Farage can't become PM without Tory votes
    No, you've missed the point
    Destroying the Tories is only the first step. Once they are destroyed (inshAllah) then they will open up a vacuum for another right wing party to replace them. This will of course take a few years but it must happen
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,262
    There is a small minority in the country who might agree with Farages comments but one could see how things could go south quickly when he gets to do the QT .

    For example , “ you’ve said that you’d admired Putin as a political operator , does that include sending over two assassins to poison Skripal and his daughter and also when they successfully poisoned a British National on UK soil” .

    “ Does your admiration go as far when he murders opposition in Russia and shuts down any dissent “ .

    “You’ve also said positive things about Tate whose made misogynistic comments and who is waiting to stand trial in Romania “.

    Much depends on what line Bruce takes , how confrontational might she be or told to be .
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,304

    That PeoplePolling poll from the 18th is looking like a massive outlier.

    Have we heard from Goodwin recently?

    It's an outlier of about the same magnitude of the MoreInCommon poll that followed it, but that strangely did not result in everyone accusing the polling firm concerned of moral turpitude.
This discussion has been closed.