@robfordmancs Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20.
Savanta Con numbers by week: Week 1: 27 Week 2: 28 Week 3: 25 Week 4: 21 Week 5: 19
Grim. I'm definitely predicting under 100 seats now.
Incredibly, it seems possible. Could the Tory result going to end up being (a) under 100 but still second largest party, (b) reverse 1931 (and possibly behind the Lib Dems,) (c) near extinction as per the LD massacre in 2015, or (d) Canada '93?
I don't know, they deserve what's coming but I still harbour a 'too good to be true' feeling about the more apocalyptic predictions. Some of the Reform vote must consist of grumpy elderly ex-Tories who'll traipse home when push comes to shove - mustn't it?
I still think on the morning of the GE the tory vote will wake up and decide not to risk a Labour landslide and come home very very late in the day.
They'll lose. But not like the polls predict.
But maybe I am just unable to compute what is about to happen???
Perhaps Labour in Scotland thought the same on the eve of the 2015 election. Or the Tories in Scotland on the eve of the 1997 election.
One voter today reminded me of both these cataclysmic elections. It can happen in 2024 because it has already happened before.
Birmingham. Driven through it but never stopped. Have been to the more depressing bit of Wolverhampton when I had to come off the M6 to avoid a huge queue from an accident.
Incidentally, it shows the old argument that the UK is missing two cities in its population distribution. Most countries have a second city half the size of the first, then a couple of cities half the size of the second. France and Germany both have this pattern. Japan is similar in that Tokyo is so much more massive than any other conurbation.
Hang on - Germany perhaps - albeit it has a unique history of unifying and splitting and unifying again. But Paris is your classic preeminent overweening Jupiterian Great Wen.
I went back and checked, and thanks to Paris city only extending to the ring road, the Greater Paris Metro region is 12 million, so you're right. Paris is very weird though because although it's one economic bloc, the cities nearby are very defiantly Pas Paris, Merci bien.
And then they will spend next five years complaining that the boomers get all the benefits in life and have massive pensions and got their own homes at age 25 etc etc.
If you don't vote, then you don't get to complain imho.
Around 35% of all voters didn't vote at the last election, so there isn't a huge difference.
Opinium and UNS leave the Cons on 105 seats. Factor in tactical voting and differential swings and you are looking at as low as 60 or 65. Just a couple of defections or by-elections away from Sir Ed as Leader of the Opposition.
Ladies and gentlemen if this is anything near reality then we are through the looking glass
They'll also be hoping all the sex pests were caught during the last parliament.
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
I'll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservtives will finish a well clear second on seats and votes.
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
I would have thought Broxbourne might be the first Con potential win? It's my first "meltdown bellwether" ie if they lose it's probably a disastrous, <100 seat result. Prob declared by 1am?
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Sky imho is the best, maybe ITV even 2nd. Unless they have Peter Hennessy or prev PMs on, I prob won't be spending much time on the BBC, always feels slow, clunky, too many talking heads, Curtice always seems to take ages to state the obvious "If it stays this way, it's a very bad night for the Conservatives".
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
I'll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservtives will finish a well clear second on seats and votes.
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
"Green Party suspends Chingford and Woodford Green candidate
Chris Brody was suspended after the party found a personal blog post where he confessed to a sexual assault while on a secure mental health ward, reports Marco Marcelline"
I see the wikipedia page now lists him as an Independent, which is a bit dodgy, it should show him as the Green but include a note about support being withdrawn, as is the case with Labour in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
Opinium and UNS leave the Cons on 105 seats. Factor in tactical voting and differential swings and you are looking at as low as 60 or 65. Just a couple of defections or by-elections away from Sir Ed as Leader of the Opposition.
Ladies and gentlemen if this is anything near reality then we are through the looking glass
They'll also be hoping all the sex pests were caught during the last parliament.
There'll doubtless be a new crop, in most parties. Seems to be a requirement to be an approved candidate that you have have an outsized libido.
The BBC don't do any favours with some of the examples in this article...some clearly are very bad, others like saying somebody is "dreadful woman, with bad ideas" is only unbelievably offensive in BBC world.
Also Leicester, derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, and Peterborough
Probably Leicester is the biggest British conurbation I’ve not seen. I have been to the county just skipped the city. I have a sense I’m not entirely missing out
Well worth seeing. From Richard III in the Cathedral to the Abbey Pumping Station Museum.
We went there for a Weekend in Summer 2021. It was great. Not many other tourists as it was Plague Central at the time. New Walk the Georgian mile long pedestrian precinct is fascinating too.
Remember on the Sunday seeing cricket teams with both sides formed entirely of Indians and playing in crisp whites and lots of Indian families dressed in their Sunday best perambulating in Victoria Park and thinking that they are still what we once were.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
Yes, but Osborne is not to my taste to put it mildly.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
Yes but you also have to put up with Peston and Sturgeon.
Good job I am not looking to stand for parliament, I would now be on the BBC naughty list due to all my offensive remarks of Prof Peston.
I think my zero Tory seats 1000/1 bet looks pretty good now. It’s still highly highly unlikely - but with these polls plus reform plus tactical voting - who knows. And the Tories are still trending down
I’d say the probability is more like 300/1. These mad odds are hard to quantify but it’s no longer 1000/1
Can't believe Leon hasn't been to Portsmouth before.
Is that a big deal? Is it of the same level of sensation as if Roger said that he'd never been to Hartlepool? (I have no idea what Roger's "Hartlepool status" is)
I have been to portchester castle - just somehow skipped the city
Also never been to: Bradford, Halifax, Rochdale, Rotherham, Lancaster, Derry, Stoke on Trent, Hartlepool, or the Yorkshire dales
You should go to the Staffordshire museum in Hanley and see the Staffordshire hoard from Brownhills. Some noom value to be had. And Lancaster is a fab place. And the Yorkshire Dales are worldbeating. I suspect the most significant place I’ve never been in the UK would be somewhere like Canterbury or Chichester.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
Yep. Ozzy & Bally are by far the best. The BBC is utter crap and has been for years. No serious political punter will want their dreary on-side crap for hours on end.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
Yes, but Osborne is not to my taste to put it mildly.
Not mine either I must say. As an acquired taste, right up there with that cheese from Sardinia with the leaping maggots that eat your eyes.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
Yes, but Osborne is not to my taste to put it mildly.
Also Leicester, derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, and Peterborough
Probably Leicester is the biggest British conurbation I’ve not seen. I have been to the county just skipped the city. I have a sense I’m not entirely missing out
Well worth seeing. From Richard III in the Cathedral to the Abbey Pumping Station Museum.
We went there for a Weekend in Summer 2021. It was great. Not many other tourists as it was Plague Central at the time. New Walk the Georgian mile long pedestrian precinct is fascinating too.
Remember on the Sunday seeing cricket teams with both sides formed entirely of Indians and playing in crisp whites and lots of Indian families dressed in their Sunday best perambulating in Victoria Park and thinking that they are still what we once were.
I agree. The pedestrian precinct is great and connects the town centre with Victoria Park with a Lutyens Great War memorial - obviously a sibling of his at THiepval. I wonder if Abbey Park, with the ruins of the abbey and Wolseley's tomb, is as grand a municipal park as it used to be?
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
I'll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservtives will finish a well clear second on seats and votes.
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
Of course those who tell you they will be voting Conservative will actually do so.
This is exactly what happened in 1997 - Conservative canvassers kept saying it was nothing like as bad on the doorstep as the polls were showing except as it turned out the polls were right and the canvassers wrong.
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
I'll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservtives will finish a well clear second on seats and votes.
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
Of course those who tell you they will be voting Conservative will actually do so.
This is exactly what happened in 1997 - Conservative canvassers kept saying it was nothing like as bad on the doorstep as the polls were showing except as it turned out the polls were right and the canvassers wrong.
Although the Tories would love to get the 31.4% they received in 1997.
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
I'll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservtives will finish a well clear second on seats and votes.
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
I think this is spot on. There will be plenty of loyal Tories holding up their vote. That is the difference between the two big parties of state and the minor parties: Labour and Conservative have millions of people who will turn out for them come hell or high water.
Also Leicester, derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, and Peterborough
Probably Leicester is the biggest British conurbation I’ve not seen. I have been to the county just skipped the city. I have a sense I’m not entirely missing out
Leicester was unexpectedly charming when I went on a visit the other week. Some decent architecture and the cathedral may have been small but it was handsome.
I’m a graduate (distance learning LLM) of the University of Leicester but have only been there 3 times.
I got a PhD from a university I’d never been to.
(Because the institution I studied at only became part of the university in question shortly before I got the degree.)
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
Yes, but Osborne is not to my taste to put it mildly.
He’s great with Balls as a double act
All it does for me is highlight how desperately annoying and up his own rear I find Osborne. I tried to listen to their podcast and stopped ten minutes in after shouting "ITS YOUR FUCKING FAULT YOU WERE CHANCELLOR FOR SIX FUCKING YEARS". Fortunately the lab door was closed and no one heard me.
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
We go back a long time on this site Sean (me and thee), and I think your neck is well worth paying attention to.
And it may well be right. As a long standing poll watcher, in previous GE's, although the polls have been horribly wrong sometimes, 1992 springs to mind. 2017 poor. Not great in 2015. But for all these it was the Labour share that wasn't great. The polls were pretty accurate for the Tories. It wasn't so much the shy Tory voter, it was the flakey Labour voter, or the Corbyn surge that wasn't captured.
Also Leicester, derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, and Peterborough
Probably Leicester is the biggest British conurbation I’ve not seen. I have been to the county just skipped the city. I have a sense I’m not entirely missing out
Well worth seeing. From Richard III in the Cathedral to the Abbey Pumping Station Museum.
We went there for a Weekend in Summer 2021. It was great. Not many other tourists as it was Plague Central at the time. New Walk the Georgian mile long pedestrian precinct is fascinating too.
Remember on the Sunday seeing cricket teams with both sides formed entirely of Indians and playing in crisp whites and lots of Indian families dressed in their Sunday best perambulating in Victoria Park and thinking that they are still what we once were.
That would just make me despair at what we have become
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
I'll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservtives will finish a well clear second on seats and votes.
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
Of course those who tell you they will be voting Conservative will actually do so.
This is exactly what happened in 1997 - Conservative canvassers kept saying it was nothing like as bad on the doorstep as the polls were showing except as it turned out the polls were right and the canvassers wrong.
Can't believe Leon hasn't been to Portsmouth before.
Is that a big deal? Is it of the same level of sensation as if Roger said that he'd never been to Hartlepool? (I have no idea what Roger's "Hartlepool status" is)
I have been to portchester castle - just somehow skipped the city
Also never been to: Bradford, Halifax, Rochdale, Rotherham, Lancaster, Derry, Stoke on Trent, Hartlepool, or the Yorkshire dales
You should go to the Staffordshire museum in Hanley and see the Staffordshire hoard from Brownhills. Some noom value to be had. And Lancaster is a fab place. And the Yorkshire Dales are worldbeating. I suspect the most significant place I’ve never been in the UK would be somewhere like Canterbury or Chichester.
As for Hartlepool, the Nelson-era frigate Trincomalee is quite something, albeit in a sort of film set pretend dockland. Though the local museum next door is good. The less obvious point is Heugh Point gun battery under the lighthouse - only somewhat restored, but recalling the bombardment by the Germans in 1914. The view from it is grand, across the Tees estuary to the bulge of Yorkshire, and to the north too.
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
I'll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservtives will finish a well clear second on seats and votes.
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
I think this is spot on. There will be plenty of loyal Tories holding up their vote. That is the difference between the two big parties of state and the minor parties: Labour and Conservative have millions of people who will turn out for them come hell or high water.
I think it's probably right, but more on the "The Tories will wash up with 110 seats over the LD's 60 odd" end of the spectrum. Worse than 1997 but not an apocalyptic wipeout.
Probably the most Leeanderthal street in Ashfield.
About 40% with Reform placards. There are more placards being posted, especially for Reform in Lee Anderson's old patch, and for the Ashfield Independents.
This was on his Twitter feed last week. Roberts Avenue, Huthwaite.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
Yes but you also have to put up with Peston and Sturgeon.
Good job I am not looking to stand for parliament, I would now be on the BBC naughty list due to all my offensive remarks of Prof Peston.
On the positive side you've been wrong a lot fewer times than he has.
@robfordmancs Savanta had some of the strongest Con numbers at the start of the campaign, so its ominous for Tories that they have now joined Club Sub 20.
Savanta Con numbers by week: Week 1: 27 Week 2: 28 Week 3: 25 Week 4: 21 Week 5: 19
Grim. I'm definitely predicting under 100 seats now.
Incredibly, it seems possible. Could the Tory result going to end up being (a) under 100 but still second largest party, (b) reverse 1931 (and possibly behind the Lib Dems,) (c) near extinction as per the LD massacre in 2015, or (d) Canada '93?
I don't know, they deserve what's coming but I still harbour a 'too good to be true' feeling about the more apocalyptic predictions. Some of the Reform vote must consist of grumpy elderly ex-Tories who'll traipse home when push comes to shove - mustn't it?
I still think on the morning of the GE the tory vote will wake up and decide not to risk a Labour landslide and come home very very late in the day.
They'll lose. But not like the polls predict.
But maybe I am just unable to compute what is about to happen???
I believed that in 1997, and was wrong. I have no idea this time - and prediction spreads abound of Tory seats 50-180 and similar which are no help. I think under 100 is looking a perfectly possible prospect. And Reformers who change their mind will stay home or vote Labour/minor candidates not Tory.
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
I'll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservtives will finish a well clear second on seats and votes.
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
Of course those who tell you they will be voting Conservative will actually do so.
This is exactly what happened in 1997 - Conservative canvassers kept saying it was nothing like as bad on the doorstep as the polls were showing except as it turned out the polls were right and the canvassers wrong.
The polls werent right in 1997
Polling in 1997 was much less sophisticated than it is now so that's a weak argument.
In any case, the polls as conducted then didn't too badly - the last ICM the day before polling was 43-33-18, the final result was 43-31-17 so not bad at all.
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
I'll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservtives will finish a well clear second on seats and votes.
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
Thanks MM that is my gut feel.
What is your Con seat prediction?
Fwiw i think its likely they get 23 to 25% and 100 to 140 seats with a 'possibility' they get a couple more % and just get over 1997 if they can turnout a LOT of waverers and DKs, however also a possibillty they sink towards 20% and their seat total completely collapses (sub 50)
From your list, my Top 3 Never Visited are: Bristol, Leicester and Cardiff
Belfast, Sale, Derry.
You go most everywhere as a twitcher. But still never NI.
Northern Ireland is lovely - despite its reputation and despite some depressing weather and towns. Belfast is fascinating with a spectacular location and the coast and countryside are lush
Agreed and make sure you go on a walking political tour.
Assembled at Divis Tower and met first tour guide who was an IRA maze veteran. Hour and a half with him walking around the Falls Road area and then handed over to a UVF guy at one of the peace gates (think checkpoint charlie with a bigger wall) for an hour and a half on the Shankhill.
Saw sights you think you will never see in the UK like houses where the whole rear of the house and its garden was caged in a steele grille to stop molotov cocktails coming over the wall.
IRA guy, now a republican journalist was quite nuanced. UVF just ranted about terrorists which got a bit tedious. IRA guy was clearly something of a local hero as numerous vehicles tooted their horn as they passed him.
One interesting thing is that on the Shankhill side, the wall was covered in Graffitti, on the Falls side, none, but a few murals. The Shankhill side seemed far more chavvy.
Most tourists were European. We were the only English. Which was fun. Dont make it too obvious I am English on one side, don't make it too obvious I'm a Taig (Catholic) on the other.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
Yes, but Osborne is not to my taste to put it mildly.
He’s great with Balls as a double act
All it does for me is highlight how desperately annoying and up his own rear I find Osborne. I tried to listen to their podcast and stopped ten minutes in after shouting "ITS YOUR FUCKING FAULT YOU WERE CHANCELLOR FOR SIX FUCKING YEARS". Fortunately the lab door was closed and no one heard me.
Rory Stewart is far far worse with his effete pathetic tweets expressing astonishment at 2.4m migrants in 3 years. Like wow how did that happen
He’s a fucking Tory politician whose job is analysing politics and economics for a podcast. Its like Gareth Southgate expressing astonishment that France has some good players
For those talking about Northern Ireland, here is an excellent video of Susanna Thornton bikepacking 450km round the coast of mainly NI. Similarly wanting to find out about the place, from knowing very little.
Seven days, wild camping, on her Brompton, in her mid 50s.
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
I'll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservtives will finish a well clear second on seats and votes.
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
Of course those who tell you they will be voting Conservative will actually do so.
This is exactly what happened in 1997 - Conservative canvassers kept saying it was nothing like as bad on the doorstep as the polls were showing except as it turned out the polls were right and the canvassers wrong.
The polls werent right in 1997
Polling in 1997 was much less sophisticated than it is now so that's a weak argument.
In any case, the polls as conducted then didn't too badly - the last ICM the day before polling was 43-33-18, the final result was 43-31-17 so not bad at all.
This close to election day is when the polls become a better predictor of the result, historically. No more Clegg surges or big TMay leads.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
Yes, but Osborne is not to my taste to put it mildly.
He’s great with Balls as a double act
All it does for me is highlight how desperately annoying and up his own rear I find Osborne. I tried to listen to their podcast and stopped ten minutes in after shouting "ITS YOUR FUCKING FAULT YOU WERE CHANCELLOR FOR SIX FUCKING YEARS". Fortunately the lab door was closed and no one heard me.
Rory Stewart is far far worse with his effete pathetic tweets expressing astonishment at 2.4m migrants in 3 years. Like wow how did that happen
He’s a fucking Tory politician whose job is analysing politics and economics for a podcast. Its like Gareth Southgate expressing astonishment that France has some good players
According to Southgate everyone has good players. Its just that he doesn't know what to do with his.
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
I'll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservtives will finish a well clear second on seats and votes.
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
Of course those who tell you they will be voting Conservative will actually do so.
This is exactly what happened in 1997 - Conservative canvassers kept saying it was nothing like as bad on the doorstep as the polls were showing except as it turned out the polls were right and the canvassers wrong.
One of the things really good canvassers can do is read the tells that distinguish between "I'll still vote for you" and "I'll be washing my hair that night but let's not have a row". It's spooky to witness.
The ratio of those two will put the Conservatives somewhere on the scale from defeat to death.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Do ITV have Osborne and Balls again? They were superb the last time.
Yes, but Osborne is not to my taste to put it mildly.
He’s great with Balls as a double act
All it does for me is highlight how desperately annoying and up his own rear I find Osborne. I tried to listen to their podcast and stopped ten minutes in after shouting "ITS YOUR FUCKING FAULT YOU WERE CHANCELLOR FOR SIX FUCKING YEARS". Fortunately the lab door was closed and no one heard me.
Exactly why I've never given it a go - I'm fairly sure my laptop insurance doesn't cover rage induced incidents, no matter how justifiable. As Duncan Robinson of the Econ pointed out we're in for a whole lot of smol bean Tory anger against the 2010-24 governments in the years ahead. uwu.
RefUK up to 6 MPs with New Statesman's model, from 4 previously. One of them is Mid Bucks, which I personally don't believe for a minute. The other new one is Hornchurch & Upminster.
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Which would then take at least ten years to sort out the replacement.
And you're not getting your wish for ten plus years of hard right government if the replacement isn't competent.
So where do you find your competent, non-corrupt, hard working and lucky group of hard right politicians ?
Probably the most Leeanderthal street in Ashfield.
About 40% with Reform placards. There are more placards being posted, especially for Reform in Lee Anderson's old patch, and for the Ashfield Independents.
This was on his Twitter feed last week. Roberts Avenue, Huthwaite.
Also Leicester, derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, and Peterborough
Probably Leicester is the biggest British conurbation I’ve not seen. I have been to the county just skipped the city. I have a sense I’m not entirely missing out
Well worth seeing. From Richard III in the Cathedral to the Abbey Pumping Station Museum.
We went there for a Weekend in Summer 2021. It was great. Not many other tourists as it was Plague Central at the time. New Walk the Georgian mile long pedestrian precinct is fascinating too.
Remember on the Sunday seeing cricket teams with both sides formed entirely of Indians and playing in crisp whites and lots of Indian families dressed in their Sunday best perambulating in Victoria Park and thinking that they are still what we once were.
I agree. The pedestrian precinct is great and connects the town centre with Victoria Park with a Lutyens Great War memorial - obviously a sibling of his at THiepval. I wonder if Abbey Park, with the ruins of the abbey and Wolseley's tomb, is as grand a municipal park as it used to be?
We saw that too. Enjoyable but not as good as Victoria Park
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
I'll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservtives will finish a well clear second on seats and votes.
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
Of course those who tell you they will be voting Conservative will actually do so.
This is exactly what happened in 1997 - Conservative canvassers kept saying it was nothing like as bad on the doorstep as the polls were showing except as it turned out the polls were right and the canvassers wrong.
One of the things really good canvassers can do is read the tells that distinguish between "I'll still vote for you" and "I'll be washing my hair that night but let's not have a row". It's spooky to witness.
The ratio of those two will put the Conservatives somewhere on the scale from defeat to death.
Indeed. However the Daily Mail trashing of Farage suggests some recovery may happen. So possible 145 seats and second in votes with c24%
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
I'll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservtives will finish a well clear second on seats and votes.
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
Of course those who tell you they will be voting Conservative will actually do so.
This is exactly what happened in 1997 - Conservative canvassers kept saying it was nothing like as bad on the doorstep as the polls were showing except as it turned out the polls were right and the canvassers wrong.
The polls werent right in 1997
Polling in 1997 was much less sophisticated than it is now so that's a weak argument.
In any case, the polls as conducted then didn't too badly - the last ICM the day before polling was 43-33-18, the final result was 43-31-17 so not bad at all.
I wss responding to you saying the canvassers were wrong, the polls were right, one ICM poll was close, but almosr all polling and also the canvass 'thoughts' were off. Polling being less sophisticated doesnt make it any more right, they over estimated the Labour vote and size of win throughout, the famous 'rogue' 5 pointer aside. Ditto 2001
The money on the night will be made on voting with the pre-existing evidence and against the MRPs in indiv idual seats. The swings are so far beyond usual (and a new party is expected to be mid teens) that MRPs will likely get individual seats wildly wrong, but in aggregate they'll get the result correct.
First like the first Tory seat that is actually held causing immense relief to @Sandpit
With polling like this it could be a long night. Jeez.
Might have to wait until the morning!
I am hoping someone on here, more knowledgable than me, will do a timetable of the expected count highlights:
First count First Tory win possibilities Potential Portillo moments Tory leadership contender counts Reform seats etc.
I always hate that dead period between the first couple of results c. 1130 and 0130 when they start picking up.
Ah, the "Lets discuss the exit poll over and over again until something happens" period. Incidentally, who is everyone's preferred broadcaster this time round? I'll probably tune into the BBC for the exit poll and Curtis, but the idea of spending eight hours with Chris Mason and Laura Kuenssberg doesn't fill me with glee. C4 have Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell this time don't they?
Age has caught up with me; bed and Radio 4 joint with R5, slower, soporific, Nick Robinson et al, possible Jim Naughtie, doze in the boring hours, no attempt to be first to know. No saloon cowboy graphics. no celeb drunks on Thames boats. And, as with all radio, better pictures.
Also Leicester, derby, Coventry, Scunthorpe, and Peterborough
Probably Leicester is the biggest British conurbation I’ve not seen. I have been to the county just skipped the city. I have a sense I’m not entirely missing out
Well worth seeing. From Richard III in the Cathedral to the Abbey Pumping Station Museum.
We went there for a Weekend in Summer 2021. It was great. Not many other tourists as it was Plague Central at the time. New Walk the Georgian mile long pedestrian precinct is fascinating too.
Remember on the Sunday seeing cricket teams with both sides formed entirely of Indians and playing in crisp whites and lots of Indian families dressed in their Sunday best perambulating in Victoria Park and thinking that they are still what we once were.
I agree. The pedestrian precinct is great and connects the town centre with Victoria Park with a Lutyens Great War memorial - obviously a sibling of his at THiepval. I wonder if Abbey Park, with the ruins of the abbey and Wolseley's tomb, is as grand a municipal park as it used to be?
Around Leicester I think the National Forest is gradually becoming a must-see. And really excellent cycling - it would need to be a nearly full day, for me, however.
What did you expect. This is the paper that nixed Peter Hitchens column for the month before one general election when he was in his "destroy the Tories" phase.
Probably the most Leeanderthal street in Ashfield.
About 40% with Reform placards. There are more placards being posted, especially for Reform in Lee Anderson's old patch, and for the Ashfield Independents.
This was on his Twitter feed last week. Roberts Avenue, Huthwaite.
I’ll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservatives will finish third, in vote share, and fourth, in seats.
I'll stick my neck out and say I think the Conservtives will finish a well clear second on seats and votes.
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
Of course those who tell you they will be voting Conservative will actually do so.
This is exactly what happened in 1997 - Conservative canvassers kept saying it was nothing like as bad on the doorstep as the polls were showing except as it turned out the polls were right and the canvassers wrong.
The polls werent right in 1997
Polling in 1997 was much less sophisticated than it is now so that's a weak argument.
In any case, the polls as conducted then didn't too badly - the last ICM the day before polling was 43-33-18, the final result was 43-31-17 so not bad at all.
As I said earlier, the polls have always been pretty accurate at recording the Tory share. Even 1997 too...they tend to overstate Labour, but the Tory vote share is pretty spot on. I genuinely think we have to brace ourselves (all of us) for a complete Tory collapse in seats and what that means for British politics. It will be fun for political geeks for about 24-48 hours...and then the horrible implications will sink in.
What did you expect. This is the paper that nixed Peter Hitchens column for the month before one general election when he was in his "destroy the Tories" phase.
When Farage praises Putin, I think stick with the Tories.
When I see polls like these, I think, just put them out of their misery. An ending comes to all things, and the Conservatives long since ceased to believe in anything, or to care about their voters.
You’re exactly where I am. I was gonna go reform then Farage does his dodgy Putin drivel. And I feel soiled
But then I look at the Tories and think jeez they have to die. And if Farage is the ugly tool that does it, so be it
Much as we had to embrace Stalin to do away with Hitler?
Kind of. Yes. Britain clearly needs a hard right government for ten years minimum. Europe shows the way
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
Which would then take at least ten years to sort out the replacement.
And you're not getting your wish for ten plus years of hard right government if the replacement isn't competent.
So where do you find your competent, non-corrupt, hard working and lucky group of hard right politicians ?
Dunno. But the death of the Tories is the first and necessary step
So we've got almost all independent analysts saying that when Con loses, the worst possible thing they could do for their future prospects is to shift further to the right.
And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.
So why is Con doing so disastrously?
It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.
I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.
What did you expect. This is the paper that nixed Peter Hitchens column for the month before one general election when he was in his "destroy the Tories" phase.
He will get his wish......just a bit late
He is now furiously telling people to Vote Tory because however bad they are, Starmer is a Pabloist Trot who will wreck the place good and proper.
Probably the most Leeanderthal street in Ashfield.
About 40% with Reform placards. There are more placards being posted, especially for Reform in Lee Anderson's old patch, and for the Ashfield Independents.
This was on his Twitter feed last week. Roberts Avenue, Huthwaite.
Comments
One voter today reminded me of both these cataclysmic elections. It can happen in 2024 because it has already happened before.
3rd behind Ref in votes?
4th behind LDs and who else in seats?
Thanks Sean.
There's another one too.
Basically a hand. That is ridiculous and needs to change.
What happens if 2 parties are level on seats vying to be the Opposition? Who becomes LOTO? Would it go to most votes?
Will there be any 4-way leader debates before 4 July with Davey, Farage, Starmer, Sunak?
Thanks!
DC
The people you aren't hearing a peep from are those who quietly tell Conservative door-knockers that of course they will still vote Tory. Those who always hated the Tories REALLY hate the Tories this time. Those who support them are saying nowt. But still voting.
1st result likely Sunderland or Newcastle?
Newport must win the prize.
(I was thinking of Gillingham btw.)
What is your Con seat prediction?
Reform candidates' offensive remarks seen by BBC
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crggy73m2ero
It blunts the impact of the article when you include nonsense.
We went there for a Weekend in Summer 2021. It was great. Not many other tourists as it was Plague Central at the time. New Walk the Georgian mile long pedestrian precinct is fascinating too.
Remember on the Sunday seeing cricket teams with both sides formed entirely of Indians and playing in crisp whites and lots of Indian families dressed in their Sunday best perambulating in Victoria Park and thinking that they are still what we once were.
Good job I am not looking to stand for parliament, I would now be on the BBC naughty list due to all my offensive remarks of Prof Peston.
I’d say the probability is more like 300/1. These mad odds are hard to quantify but it’s no longer 1000/1
This is exactly what happened in 1997 - Conservative canvassers kept saying it was nothing like as bad on the doorstep as the polls were showing except as it turned out the polls were right and the canvassers wrong.
(Because the institution I studied at only became part of the university in question shortly before I got the degree.)
And it may well be right. As a long standing poll watcher, in previous GE's, although the polls have been horribly wrong sometimes, 1992 springs to mind. 2017 poor. Not great in 2015. But for all these it was the Labour share that wasn't great. The polls were pretty accurate for the Tories. It wasn't so much the shy Tory voter, it was the flakey Labour voter, or the Corbyn surge that wasn't captured.
Probably the most Leeanderthal street in Ashfield.
About 40% with Reform placards. There are more placards being posted, especially for Reform in Lee Anderson's old patch, and for the Ashfield Independents.
This was on his Twitter feed last week. Roberts Avenue, Huthwaite.
https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1801209100618829890
But for that to happen the wet feeble cowardly metrosexual Tories have to DIE
Farage is then the horrible crowbar that smashes the skull
In any case, the polls as conducted then didn't too badly - the last ICM the day before polling was 43-33-18, the final result was 43-31-17 so not bad at all.
"Britain Elects
@BritainElects
12 days to go | State of the polls ft. Britain Elects co-founder @BNHWalker
https://newstatesman.com/politics/2024/06/are-reform-really-beating-the-conservatives-in-the-polls"
https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1804584211745329660
Assembled at Divis Tower and met first tour guide who was an IRA maze veteran. Hour and a half with him walking around the Falls Road area and then handed over to a UVF guy at one of the peace gates (think checkpoint charlie with a bigger wall) for an hour and a half on the Shankhill.
Saw sights you think you will never see in the UK like houses where the whole rear of the house and its garden was caged in a steele grille to stop molotov cocktails coming over the wall.
IRA guy, now a republican journalist was quite nuanced. UVF just ranted about terrorists which got a bit tedious. IRA guy was clearly something of a local hero as numerous vehicles tooted their horn as they passed him.
One interesting thing is that on the Shankhill side, the wall was covered in Graffitti, on the Falls side, none, but a few murals. The Shankhill side seemed far more chavvy.
Most tourists were European. We were the only English. Which was fun. Dont make it too obvious I am English on one side, don't make it too obvious I'm a Taig (Catholic) on the other.
Best 3 hours in many years though.
He’s a fucking Tory politician whose job is analysing politics and economics for a podcast. Its like Gareth Southgate expressing astonishment that France has some good players
Seven days, wild camping, on her Brompton, in her mid 50s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5gZWJHP6Hk
Has the PB Settle to Carlisle wanderer returned safely?
The ratio of those two will put the Conservatives somewhere on the scale from defeat to death.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts
Also The Sunday Times reports resources are being diverted to Rishi Sunak's constituency because of the D-Day mistake
https://x.com/AllieHBNews/status/1804614691479793745
He’s still a very poor politician but in a different era he’d be remembered as a passing failure who meant well like Gordon brown or Jim Callaghan
It’s events that have conspired to doom him. And they’re not of his devising
And you're not getting your wish for ten plus years of hard right government if the replacement isn't competent.
So where do you find your competent, non-corrupt, hard working and lucky group of hard right politicians ?
Ditto 2001
Who could have seen that coming...
https://x.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1804618266511306880
And we've got longstanding Con voters on here literally seething with rage that Sunak is not right wing enough and they will not vote Con.
So why is Con doing so disastrously?
It seems to me that the answer is not that it's too right wing. And nor is it that it's not right wing enough.
I suspect the answer is a whole host of other things.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/22/nelson-hms-victory-gives-scientists-vital-dna-for-battle-against-deathwatch-beetle