Lab 504 LD 53 Con 43 SNP 21 PC 4 Ref 3 Green 2 Others 20
SKS fans please explain
Explain what that non MRP Polls are exaggerating the Lab lead?
If anyone wants to bet SKS will get over 500 seats I am happy to oppose that in a charity bet!
I reckon the 10pm Exit poll is going to be as big a shock to SKS fans as the 2017 one.
But we will see.
There were plenty of polls in the run up to the 2017 election that were close to the final result.
YouGov did their first MRP I believe, and that was really close. I remember talking about it during the GOTV sessions during the day. The response on the doorstep in my own marginal was such that I doubt many Labour members who were knocking on doors were that shocked.
This time round, I doubt many expect that it will really be 500+ seats. I think most will be happy with any kind of solid majority.
I expect the next Deltapoll will place Reform ahead of the Conservatives.
No Prime Minister has been more hated than Sunak, in my lifetime.
I am not a voting expert (I'm not an expert about anything really) but the inefficiency of the Reform vote (and the UKIP vote before it) is something that has only really fully become apparent to me this election. I really would have thought that it would be more efficient - a lot more focussed geographically in Brexity type left-behind towns. They are not anywhere in Scotland, that is surely a help. Not anywhere in London either. So I just can't fathom why that 16% is spreading out so thinly.
Some of this is because there’s been a big swing to Labour in those sorts of areas and therefore that will block Reform’s way to the seats.
However, if Reform do manage to get themselves into the high teens on polling day, the chances are that they’ll do a bit better on seat count than expected, I suspect.
I would more than mildly amused if Reform won half a dozen seats but NOT Clacton!
The Green support I find most difficult to explain. They are not a fringe political force, but they are not major either. I find it hard to believe all 'true' leftwing people are voting Green as Labour would not be at 40% with centre left and centre (and some centre right) alone. In the South the LDs poll better, and in most of the country the Greens are barely present even with some good local gains in the last few years.
Lab 504 LD 53 Con 43 SNP 21 PC 4 Ref 3 Green 2 Others 20
SKS fans please explain
Explain what that non MRP Polls are exaggerating the Lab lead?
If anyone wants to bet SKS will get over 500 seats I am happy to oppose that in a charity bet!
I reckon the 10pm Exit poll is going to be as big a shock to SKS fans as the 2017 one.
But we will see.
There were plenty of polls in the run up to the 2017 election that were close to the final result.
YouGov did their first MRP I believe, and that was really close. I remember talking about it during the GOTV sessions during the day. The response on the doorstep in my own marginal was such that I doubt many Labour members who were knocking on doors were that shocked.
This time round, I doubt many expect that it will really be 500+ seats. I think most will be happy with any kind of solid majority.
Even the official exit poll is going to struggle to model the complexity of this election. Kudos to them if the seat projections are anywhere close, especially for the minor parties.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
Technically, there is no law stating that the Queen or members of the royal family cannot vote.
However, Parliament guidelines state it is considered unconstitutional for the Monarch or their family to vote in an election.
The official royal guidelines say the Head of State "has to remain strictly neutral with respect to political matters" and is unable to vote or stand for election.
To be tested in 2029 as Prince William stands as head of the Royalist Party.
I expect the next Deltapoll will place Reform ahead of the Conservatives.
No Prime Minister has been more hated than Sunak, in my lifetime.
I am not a voting expert (I'm not an expert about anything really) but the inefficiency of the Reform vote (and the UKIP vote before it) is something that has only really fully become apparent to me this election. I really would have thought that it would be more efficient - a lot more focussed geographically in Brexity type left-behind towns. They are not anywhere in Scotland, that is surely a help. Not anywhere in London either. So I just can't fathom why that 16% is spreading out so thinly.
Some of this is because there’s been a big swing to Labour in those sorts of areas and therefore that will block Reform’s way to the seats.
However, if Reform do manage to get themselves into the high teens on polling day, the chances are that they’ll do a bit better on seat count than expected, I suspect.
I would more than mildly amused if Reform won half a dozen seats but NOT Clacton!
That would be a bit of a banter result it has to be said.
It'll be astonishing if they get anywhere close to that.
Doesn't mean they're not in with a shout of holding their existing seat and winning all three targets though.
I think one of our posters also suggested the possibility of a freak result in one of the IoW seats, based on the Tory vote splintering in several directions at once.
Anyway, not beyond the realms of possibility that the Greens could win one quarter as many votes as Reform, but Reform could end up with one quarter as many seats as the Greens.
The Green support I find most difficult to explain. They are not a fringe political force, but they are not major either. I find it hard to believe all 'true' leftwing people are voting Green as Labour would not be at 40% with centre left and centre (and some centre right) alone. In the South the LDs poll better, and in most of the country the Greens are barely present even with some good local gains in the last few years.
So how are they getting to 9%?
A lot of support from younger voters once they’re confident the Tories are on their way out?
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
Technically, there is no law stating that the Queen or members of the royal family cannot vote.
However, Parliament guidelines state it is considered unconstitutional for the Monarch or their family to vote in an election.
The official royal guidelines say the Head of State "has to remain strictly neutral with respect to political matters" and is unable to vote or stand for election.
How far down the tree does that go? Is Mike Tindall going to get criticised for popping in and voting Lib Dem? (he strikes me as a Lib Dem)
On topic - TSE has those click-bait headlines sorted now!
If the movement cited dictated the votes of all concerned that would work out as a 1% or 2% closure of the gap. Meanwhile the three gold standard polling companies (on past record) have the gap at 17-21%. Thoush they do all also have the Cons 5-9% clear of Ref UK
Yes, I decided to ditch my usual subtle style and go for the clickbait headlines.
I miss the Shakespeare.
Did you decide quoting Shakespeare was a custom more honoured in the breach than in the observance?
I do have a few more Shakespeare inspired headlines coming up.
It was sheer luck that so many Macbeth quotes seemed apt for the Humza Yousaf ditching the Greens/getting replaced threads.
No luck about it: there is a tide in the affairs of men...
Books will be written about how Richi chased the ebbing tide all the way out, and then got swamped
Not according to Laura Kuenssberg.
She, and she says Labour do not believe the polls.
Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.
The BBC has a standard script - they always say the same thing every GE.
I'm not joking. You watch a recording of the BBC1 10pm news the night before every GE in the last 30 to 40 years and they always say:
- Politicians all feeling nervous - They don't think polls match what they're hearing on the ground - Reports of unusual movements in marginals - Seat totals are very unpredictable if marginals are moving differently
Note they never ever say which way the movements are or which party is expecting to do better or worse than expected.
It's basically a standard playbook to cover all possible eventualities.
Lab 504 LD 53 Con 43 SNP 21 PC 4 Ref 3 Green 2 Others 20
SKS fans please explain
Explain what that non MRP Polls are exaggerating the Lab lead?
If anyone wants to bet SKS will get over 500 seats I am happy to oppose that in a charity bet!
I reckon the 10pm Exit poll is going to be as big a shock to SKS fans as the 2017 one.
But we will see.
If you think that Labour is going to do worse in seats than it did when Corbyn humiliatingly lost the 2017 election to a dead duck like Theresa May I’m happy to offer real money. The party led by your boy failed to get as many votes as another party. That’s how politics fucking works. You still fail to grasp that even a good second place is the first loser don’t you?
I have already got £100 at 8/1 with Sky Bet that SKS gets less than the 12.9m Jezza got in 2017 thanks.
Current price with them is now 10/11 did you miss the 8/1?
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
Another silly post - you haven't got over it have you
And I would just say my wife would find your post insulting
Just don’t you start wasting our time telling us how you will leave the Tories if ever Farage becomes leader. You can’t make mugs of us three times running.
I will not support the conservatives with Farage as leader and to suggest such a thing is just your bitterness sadly
Read my comments which rejects everything he stands for and I would be politically homeless
Why do you think I am appealing to all conservatives to vote conservative to isolate Farage
And by the way I resigned from the conservative party two years ago
The issue is, you have said you would not support the Conservatives after Partygate, after Truss, after the D-Day debacle, yet in the end you still find a reason to support them.
That is your absolute right of course but don't be surprised if no one believes you wouldn't support them under Farage.
I have said I will not support Farage and to suggest I would is just an exercise in trying to discredit my change 9f view which was 3xplained on here and indeed @Heathener and others supported that decision
I have been married to my dear wife for 60 years and I can affirm on that marriage I will not support Farage
BS
You are making a mistake here. For you, Johnson and Farage are more or less in the same category and you are failing to account for the fact that many other people see them as very different characters.
That’s missing the point.
Every PB’er can see that G, or G’s wife, or both of them, are tribal Tory voters who when it comes to it will always find whatever reason they can to justify voting Tory. There’s nothing wrong with that - it’s essentially the HY position (who incidentally G has spent many of his own posts criticising). What is so insulting to the rest of us is that everything he posts meantime is essentially dishonest, whether deliberately or otherwise.
Just stop being a total arsehole - there is no "us" here.
And if it's not deliberately it's not dishonest. I am guessing (not having been here long enough to know) that G's mental journey has been like mine. Post partygate and Pincher I would have laid me voting Tory at 100/1. Given my fear of supermajorities and Reform and my useful interactions with my Tory MP in the last year I will probably now do so. Tempora mutantur nos et mutamur in illis. Why is this hard to understand?
The media can generally not make up its mind whether to believe the media has more influence than it does, -and thus think everything the media does is important - or whether to believe the media (usually the other side of it) no longer has the kind of influence people (mostly politicians) claim it has.
I'll say the same thing when Corbynites moaned in the same way - it's the job of a politician to overcome a hostile media, if one is faced, not cry about it.
But maybe they in particular are just realising than boosting Reform and Farage may have negative consequences.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
Technically, there is no law stating that the Queen or members of the royal family cannot vote.
However, Parliament guidelines state it is considered unconstitutional for the Monarch or their family to vote in an election.
The official royal guidelines say the Head of State "has to remain strictly neutral with respect to political matters" and is unable to vote or stand for election.
How far down the tree does that go? Is Mike Tindall going to get criticised for popping in and voting Lib Dem? (he strikes me as a Lib Dem)
Prince Harry outed himself as a Corbynite in his book
I’ve just noticed my ferry to St Malo - pedestrian - costs £400 - for ONE person
Of course I’m not paying but who the heck would pay that when a flight is less than half and takes an hour rather than 10 hours? Keeps out the riff raff I guess
This is also my first ever trip to Portsmouth. To my intense surprise I quite like it. Gritty and port-y but with a hint of the spectacular. The sun glints on grey metal
Brittany Ferries do that sometimes on the Saint Malo route. They can fill the ship with motorists, who pay full whack for car+cabin. If you travel by foot/bike, you're taking up a cabin that would otherwise be used by a higher-paying motorist, so they're passing up revenue.
So either they say "sorry, no foot/bike spaces available" or they charge you something not far off the car rate.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
Technically, there is no law stating that the Queen or members of the royal family cannot vote.
However, Parliament guidelines state it is considered unconstitutional for the Monarch or their family to vote in an election.
The official royal guidelines say the Head of State "has to remain strictly neutral with respect to political matters" and is unable to vote or stand for election.
How far down the tree does that go? Is Mike Tindall going to get criticised for popping in and voting Lib Dem? (he strikes me as a Lib Dem)
Prince Harry outed himself as a Corbynite in his book
And, separately, a bit of a fool and an oversharer.
Lab 504 LD 53 Con 43 SNP 21 PC 4 Ref 3 Green 2 Others 20
SKS fans please explain
Explain what that non MRP Polls are exaggerating the Lab lead?
If anyone wants to bet SKS will get over 500 seats I am happy to oppose that in a charity bet!
I reckon the 10pm Exit poll is going to be as big a shock to SKS fans as the 2017 one.
But we will see.
If you think that Labour is going to do worse in seats than it did when Corbyn humiliatingly lost the 2017 election to a dead duck like Theresa May I’m happy to offer real money. The party led by your boy failed to get as many votes as another party. That’s how politics fucking works. You still fail to grasp that even a good second place is the first loser don’t you?
I have already got £100 at 8/1 with Sky Bet that SKS gets less than the 12.9m Jezza got in 2017 thanks.
Current price with them is now 10/11 did you miss the 8/1?
You spectacularly miss the point I’m making. The 12m Corbyn got in 2017 was less than the 13.6m May’s Tories got. He lost. He fucked up. He’s a failure who condemned us to a whole series of Tory victories. This is about beating the Conservatives, not history. How much have you got on the result that matters, you strange Tory helper?
On topic - TSE has those click-bait headlines sorted now!
If the movement cited dictated the votes of all concerned that would work out as a 1% or 2% closure of the gap. Meanwhile the three gold standard polling companies (on past record) have the gap at 17-21%. Thoush they do all also have the Cons 5-9% clear of Ref UK
Yes, I decided to ditch my usual subtle style and go for the clickbait headlines.
I miss the Shakespeare.
Did you decide quoting Shakespeare was a custom more honoured in the breach than in the observance?
I do have a few more Shakespeare inspired headlines coming up.
It was sheer luck that so many Macbeth quotes seemed apt for the Humza Yousaf ditching the Greens/getting replaced threads.
No luck about it: there is a tide in the affairs of men...
Books will be written about how Richi chased the ebbing tide all the way out, and then got swamped
Not according to Laura Kuenssberg.
She, and she says Labour do not believe the polls.
Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.
The BBC has a standard script - they always say the same thing every GE.
I'm not joking. You watch a recording of the BBC1 10pm news the night before every GE in the last 30 to 40 years and they always say:
- Politicians all feeling nervous - They don't think polls match what they're hearing on the ground - Reports of unusual movements in marginals - Seat totals are very unpredictable if marginals are moving differently
Note they never ever say which way the movements are or which party is expecting to do better or worse than expected.
It's basically a standard playbook to cover all possible eventualities.
Well now you've gone and spoiled all the fun, it's like revealing a magic trick.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
Proposed electoral reform to modernise the nation:
Adopt the Eurovision voting system with the Royal Family playing the role of the judges. The points awarded by the Royals would count for 50% of the total.
Declarations would be made by videolink to a live venue where candidates would sit together in the green room.
Can we make it like 1990s Eurovision, where the votes for some of the more distant members of the RF sound like they're being sent from Malta using paper cups connected with waxed string?
Allo Prince Richard, Allo Prince Richard? Quels sont les votes du jury du Prince Richard?
It'll be astonishing if they get anywhere close to that.
Doesn't mean they're not in with a shout of holding their existing seat and winning all three targets though.
I think one of our posters also suggested the possibility of a freak result in one of the IoW seats, based on the Tory vote splintering in several directions at once.
Anyway, not beyond the realms of possibility that the Greens could win one quarter as many votes as Reform, but Reform could end up with one quarter as many seats as the Greens.
I think Birkenhead may be a surprise Green gain DYOR
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
Technically, there is no law stating that the Queen or members of the royal family cannot vote.
However, Parliament guidelines state it is considered unconstitutional for the Monarch or their family to vote in an election.
The official royal guidelines say the Head of State "has to remain strictly neutral with respect to political matters" and is unable to vote or stand for election.
How far down the tree does that go? Is Mike Tindall going to get criticised for popping in and voting Lib Dem? (he strikes me as a Lib Dem)
Prince Harry outed himself as a Corbynite in his book
I expect the next Deltapoll will place Reform ahead of the Conservatives.
No Prime Minister has been more hated than Sunak, in my lifetime.
I am not a voting expert (I'm not an expert about anything really) but the inefficiency of the Reform vote (and the UKIP vote before it) is something that has only really fully become apparent to me this election. I really would have thought that it would be more efficient - a lot more focussed geographically in Brexity type left-behind towns. They are not anywhere in Scotland, that is surely a help. Not anywhere in London either. So I just can't fathom why that 16% is spreading out so thinly.
because reform (and UKIP before that) have no ground game. i.e. they don't know how to win a FPTP election.
Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.
Back to Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics - you may hope and believe something can't happen but that usually means it will.
It was the same in 1997 - Labour didn't believe what was happening because nothing like it had happened before. The Conservatives were the same. Both were saying even on the cusp of polling day it was close etc, etc.
Others knew but didn't believe what their eyes, ears and data were telling them.
It's a similar position now - nobody believes Labour will get 500 seats and the Conservatives 100 seats and yet the data and anecdotal information they must be seeing at Labour and Conservative HQ will be telling them something they still refuse to accept.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
My suspicion is Opinium methodology harsh on Labour, generous for Greens. Certainly their recent methodology change week dropped Labour -4 or more same moment everyone else had them static or up. 61% LLG would not surprise me if TV gave us Lab 44 Lib Dem 15 in actual result. Don’t bet on Labour ending in 30s when poll of polls still has Labour in 40s before TV.
I’ve just noticed my ferry to St Malo - pedestrian - costs £400 - for ONE person
Of course I’m not paying but who the heck would pay that when a flight is less than half and takes an hour rather than 10 hours? Keeps out the riff raff I guess
This is also my first ever trip to Portsmouth. To my intense surprise I quite like it. Gritty and port-y but with a hint of the spectacular. The sun glints on grey metal
Been bombed to bits and not entirely recovered. My favourite bits are Old Pourtsmouth - the Point where this cartoon was drawn - and the view from the outside coffee tables at Priddy's Hard (the old ammunition depot oppposite). And Portchester Castle.
Portchester Castle is the distillation of English history. Saxon shore fort built.by the Romans 1600 years ago. Rebuilt by Henry Ii iirc. Part of Henry V's fleet set sail from here for France. Surrounded by Georgian houses. Used for Napoleonic prisoners of war who built a theatre in the keep. Victorian church in the bailey. Cricket ground in the bailey still in use. Stand atop the keep and see the whole of Portsmouth harbour.
Huge numbers of younger people feel disenfranchised by the political parties and are not going to vote, exclusive polling for The Independent shows.
According to research carried out by Techne UK, around four in 10 people – 41 per cent – aged 18 to 34 have either not registered to vote (24 per cent) or are registered but have decided not to go to the ballot box (17 per cent) next month.
It's curious how some people will always vote no matter how disappointed, whilst others may not even start and it becomes a habit.
I get feeling like the young are getting shafted - I'm only just out of that demographic band myself, and it is true - but without wanting to pin the blame on them, sitting things out strikes me as an ineffective way of changing that.
Governments will continue to get elected, and if they can do so despite younger people not turning out, that will inevitably have an impact on what actions they take.
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, the Reform UK leader said he had never been an "apologist or supporter of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin" but that "if you poke the Russian bear with a stick, don’t be surprised if he responds".
I'm not a believer in the axiom that you should 'ignore everything after the but'...but in this case I will make an exception.
He could have avoided even this minor furore if he was not a true believer, but clearly he is - he genuinely thinks democratic organisational expansion is justification for Russian invasions.
His protestations he is not an apologist are laughably insincere as he spews forth apologies over and over again.
It might not bite. There are probably enough people who agree with him, or who think the Russian invasion is a bit shit but it's not our responsibility to get involved.
I’ve just noticed my ferry to St Malo - pedestrian - costs £400 - for ONE person
Of course I’m not paying but who the heck would pay that when a flight is less than half and takes an hour rather than 10 hours? Keeps out the riff raff I guess
This is also my first ever trip to Portsmouth. To my intense surprise I quite like it. Gritty and port-y but with a hint of the spectacular. The sun glints on grey metal
Brittany Ferries do that sometimes on the Saint Malo route. They can fill the ship with motorists, who pay full whack for car+cabin. If you travel by foot/bike, you're taking up a cabin that would otherwise be used by a higher-paying motorist, so they're passing up revenue.
So either they say "sorry, no foot/bike spaces available" or they charge you something not far off the car rate.
Is there a seat-only price? Sometimes, in warmer climes, a "deck space" is available, where you take a sleeping bag and sleep outside.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I’ve just noticed my ferry to St Malo - pedestrian - costs £400 - for ONE person
Of course I’m not paying but who the heck would pay that when a flight is less than half and takes an hour rather than 10 hours? Keeps out the riff raff I guess
This is also my first ever trip to Portsmouth. To my intense surprise I quite like it. Gritty and port-y but with a hint of the spectacular. The sun glints on grey metal
Been bombed to bits and not entirely recovered. My favourite bits are Old Pourtsmouth - the Point where this cartoon was drawn - and the view from the outside coffee tables at Priddy's Hard (the old ammunition depot oppposite). And Portchester Castle.
There are many big and little gems in Portsmouth - and many areas of extreme shittiness. I was there a few weeks ago, and I think it's improved in the last fifteen years, since we got married there (not that there's a connection...). Like many urban areas, its problems are hard to solve. But the reduced role of the Royal Navy in the west of the city, and the increasing tourism, helps massively.
They ought to make more of the Brunel connection though, and Dickens. Oh, and Arnie lived there for a period as well! I wonder if he'll be back?
Huge numbers of younger people feel disenfranchised by the political parties and are not going to vote, exclusive polling for The Independent shows.
According to research carried out by Techne UK, around four in 10 people – 41 per cent – aged 18 to 34 have either not registered to vote (24 per cent) or are registered but have decided not to go to the ballot box (17 per cent) next month.
It's curious how some people will always vote no matter how disappointed, whilst others may not even start and it becomes a habit.
I get feeling like the young are getting shafted - I'm only just out of that demographic band myself, and it is true - but without wanting to pin the blame on them, sitting things out strikes me as an ineffective way of changing that.
Governments will continue to get elected, and if they can do so despite younger people not turning out, that will inevitably have an impact on what actions they take.
Or already has.
Rishi not suggesting we should start adding points to their driving licences for not voting, or removing their access to bank accounts?
Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.
Back to Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics - you may hope and believe something can't happen but that usually means it will.
It was the same in 1997 - Labour didn't believe what was happening because nothing like it had happened before. The Conservatives were the same. Both were saying even on the cusp of polling day it was close etc, etc.
Others knew but didn't believe what their eyes, ears and data were telling them.
It's a similar position now - nobody believes Labour will get 500 seats and the Conservatives 100 seats and yet the data and anecdotal information they must be seeing at Labour and Conservative HQ will be telling them something they still refuse to accept.
Starting from the numbers is just not the right way to do things
Mayor of Hiroshima: no single bomb in history has ever caused 1% of the number of casualties you claim. Your report can safely be ignored
Manchester CID: that would be 25 times as many murders as the previous record for a GP. Safe to close this file.
Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, the Reform UK leader said he had never been an "apologist or supporter of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin" but that "if you poke the Russian bear with a stick, don’t be surprised if he responds".
I'm not a believer in the axiom that you should 'ignore everything after the but'...but in this case I will make an exception.
He could have avoided even this minor furore if he was not a true believer, but clearly he is - he genuinely thinks democratic organisational expansion is justification for Russian invasions.
His protestations he is not an apologist are laughably insincere as he spews forth apologies over and over again.
It might not bite. There are probably enough people who agree with him, or who think the Russian invasion is a bit shit but it's not our responsibility to get involved.
No might about it, I'm very sure it won't bite.
But I hope the corpse of the Tories after the election tries to resist him a bit rather than just bends over.
I’ve just noticed my ferry to St Malo - pedestrian - costs £400 - for ONE person
Of course I’m not paying but who the heck would pay that when a flight is less than half and takes an hour rather than 10 hours? Keeps out the riff raff I guess
This is also my first ever trip to Portsmouth. To my intense surprise I quite like it. Gritty and port-y but with a hint of the spectacular. The sun glints on grey metal
Been bombed to bits and not entirely recovered. My favourite bits are Old Pourtsmouth - the Point where this cartoon was drawn - and the view from the outside coffee tables at Priddy's Hard (the old ammunition depot oppposite). And Portchester Castle.
Portchester Castle is the distillation of English history. Saxon shore fort built.by the Romans 1600 years ago. Rebuilt by Henry Ii iirc. Part of Henry V's fleet set sail from here for France. Surrounded by Georgian houses. Used for Napoleonic prisoners of war who built a theatre in the keep. Victorian church in the bailey. Cricket ground in the bailey still in use. Stand atop the keep and see the whole of Portsmouth harbour.
One of my favourite places in the world.
When I walked past it for the first time in late 2002, there were a pile of cannon dumped near the wall. I've never found them again - presumably they were moved.
It's easy to stand on the keep's roof and look out, and wonder what the Romans would have seen from the lower walls, or the medieval knights from the top of the keep.
Lab 504 LD 53 Con 43 SNP 21 PC 4 Ref 3 Green 2 Others 20
SKS fans please explain
Explain what that non MRP Polls are exaggerating the Lab lead?
If anyone wants to bet SKS will get over 500 seats I am happy to oppose that in a charity bet!
I reckon the 10pm Exit poll is going to be as big a shock to SKS fans as the 2017 one.
But we will see.
If you think that Labour is going to do worse in seats than it did when Corbyn humiliatingly lost the 2017 election to a dead duck like Theresa May I’m happy to offer real money. The party led by your boy failed to get as many votes as another party. That’s how politics fucking works. You still fail to grasp that even a good second place is the first loser don’t you?
I have already got £100 at 8/1 with Sky Bet that SKS gets less than the 12.9m Jezza got in 2017 thanks.
Current price with them is now 10/11 did you miss the 8/1?
You spectacularly miss the point I’m making. The 12m Corbyn got in 2017 was less than the 13.6m May’s Tories got. He lost. He fucked up. He’s a failure who condemned us to a whole series of Tory victories. This is about beating the Conservatives, not history. How much have you got on the result that matters, you strange Tory helper?
Er this is a betting site. BJO should be betting on results that offer value, not on what he wants to happen
Has Johnny Mercer been vindicated? I noticed people were calling him all sorts yesterday.
No. His opponent had been slightly overly bigged up by an incompetent journalist, but is basically in the clear. Mercer is a twat and very bad at social media polemics.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
Technically, there is no law stating that the Queen or members of the royal family cannot vote.
However, Parliament guidelines state it is considered unconstitutional for the Monarch or their family to vote in an election.
The official royal guidelines say the Head of State "has to remain strictly neutral with respect to political matters" and is unable to vote or stand for election.
How far down the tree does that go? Is Mike Tindall going to get criticised for popping in and voting Lib Dem? (he strikes me as a Lib Dem)
Prince Harry outed himself as a Corbynite in his book
And, separately, a bit of a fool and an oversharer.
Lab 504 LD 53 Con 43 SNP 21 PC 4 Ref 3 Green 2 Others 20
SKS fans please explain
Explain what that non MRP Polls are exaggerating the Lab lead?
If anyone wants to bet SKS will get over 500 seats I am happy to oppose that in a charity bet!
I reckon the 10pm Exit poll is going to be as big a shock to SKS fans as the 2017 one.
But we will see.
If you think that Labour is going to do worse in seats than it did when Corbyn humiliatingly lost the 2017 election to a dead duck like Theresa May I’m happy to offer real money. The party led by your boy failed to get as many votes as another party. That’s how politics fucking works. You still fail to grasp that even a good second place is the first loser don’t you?
I have already got £100 at 8/1 with Sky Bet that SKS gets less than the 12.9m Jezza got in 2017 thanks.
Current price with them is now 10/11 did you miss the 8/1?
You spectacularly miss the point I’m making. The 12m Corbyn got in 2017 was less than the 13.6m May’s Tories got. He lost. He fucked up. He’s a failure who condemned us to a whole series of Tory victories. This is about beating the Conservatives, not history. How much have you got on the result that matters, you strange Tory helper?
Er this is a betting site. BJO should be betting on results that offer value, not on what he wants to happen
Also, if be bet on Starmer having an accident, the police might be round to visit.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
Proposed electoral reform to modernise the nation:
Adopt the Eurovision voting system with the Royal Family playing the role of the judges. The points awarded by the Royals would count for 50% of the total.
Declarations would be made by videolink to a live venue where candidates would sit together in the green room.
Can we make it like 1990s Eurovision, where the votes for some of the more distant members of the RF sound like they're being sent from Malta using paper cups connected with waxed string?
Allo Prince Richard, Allo Prince Richard? Quels sont les votes du jury du Prince Richard?
There hasn’t been Prince Richard since Richard III, has there?
I was planning on campaigning for a few Tory MPs at the election even if I wasn't voting Tory sadly they either stood down and I ended up with the emergency surgery that has left me hors de combat.
I love campaigning and knocking up the voters on election day.
Sorry you are indisposed at this exciting electoral moment.
But nevertheless MUST deplore your characterization of your no-doubt devoted care staff as "hors de combat".
Get well soon - or at least better sooner - and am sure you'll shortly be back to knocking up carefully-targeted voters in your accustomed style.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it
Has Johnny Mercer been vindicated? I noticed people were calling him all sorts yesterday.
No. His opponent had been slightly overly bigged up by an incompetent journalist, but is basically in the clear. Mercer is a twat and very bad at social media polemics.
And I don't think he has explained how he apparently knows the other guy hasn't been in combat
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
Proposed electoral reform to modernise the nation:
Adopt the Eurovision voting system with the Royal Family playing the role of the judges. The points awarded by the Royals would count for 50% of the total.
Declarations would be made by videolink to a live venue where candidates would sit together in the green room.
Can we make it like 1990s Eurovision, where the votes for some of the more distant members of the RF sound like they're being sent from Malta using paper cups connected with waxed string?
Allo Prince Richard, Allo Prince Richard? Quels sont les votes du jury du Prince Richard?
There hasn’t been Prince Richard since Richard III, has there?
HRH Prince Richard, Duke of Gloucester, cousin of the late Queen
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it
I’ve just noticed my ferry to St Malo - pedestrian - costs £400 - for ONE person
Of course I’m not paying but who the heck would pay that when a flight is less than half and takes an hour rather than 10 hours? Keeps out the riff raff I guess
This is also my first ever trip to Portsmouth. To my intense surprise I quite like it. Gritty and port-y but with a hint of the spectacular. The sun glints on grey metal
Been bombed to bits and not entirely recovered. My favourite bits are Old Pourtsmouth - the Point where this cartoon was drawn - and the view from the outside coffee tables at Priddy's Hard (the old ammunition depot oppposite). And Portchester Castle.
Portchester Castle is the distillation of English history. Saxon shore fort built.by the Romans 1600 years ago. Rebuilt by Henry Ii iirc. Part of Henry V's fleet set sail from here for France. Surrounded by Georgian houses. Used for Napoleonic prisoners of war who built a theatre in the keep. Victorian church in the bailey. Cricket ground in the bailey still in use. Stand atop the keep and see the whole of Portsmouth harbour.
One of my favourite places in the world.
Also, the site of the now sadly defunct "Mighty Fine" pub. Once voted Britain's roughest pub where the stripper would gob in your mouth for a fiver on "Forces Only" nights. At one point the bouncer was a dwarf who would regularly get hung on a coat hook from which eyrie he would lash out in impotent rage at anybody within range with a pool cue. The landlord was trans years before JK Rowling started going on about them.
Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it
59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
Also it's bonkers that Walloon means French speaking. Least French looking word I can imagine.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
Technically, there is no law stating that the Queen or members of the royal family cannot vote.
However, Parliament guidelines state it is considered unconstitutional for the Monarch or their family to vote in an election.
The official royal guidelines say the Head of State "has to remain strictly neutral with respect to political matters" and is unable to vote or stand for election.
How far down the tree does that go? Is Mike Tindall going to get criticised for popping in and voting Lib Dem? (he strikes me as a Lib Dem)
Prince Harry outed himself as a Corbynite in his book
And, separately, a bit of a fool and an oversharer.
I enjoyed the read.
I would hope so, looking foolish and ovresharing should make something a good read.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
"Wrongdoing" Being a shiny man in a shiny suit and lobbying for a complete shit is certainly below what is expected for an ex-PM.
He sent:
> Nine WhatsApps to the Chancellor Rishi Sunak
> Two WhatsApp messages to Richard Sharp, adviser to Rishi Sunak
> 12 texts to Sir Tom Scholar, the permanent secretary at the Treasury.
A dozen texts/emails/phone calls and other messages were sent to: the Cabinet Office minister, Michael Gove; the health secretary, Matt Hancock; the vaccines minister, Nadhim Zahawi; the economic secretary, John Glen; and the financial secretary, Jesse Norman.
Four emails and one text went to Sir Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor of the Bank of England.
Seven messages and calls went to Sheridan Westlake, a senior adviser to Boris Johnson.
Cameron often signed off the messages “Dc” or with a simple “👍”
In a text message to Scholar on 6 March 2020, when the financial markets were in freefall at the start of the pandemic:
“I am riding to the rescue with supply chain finance with my new friend Lex Greensill”
"Green Party suspends Chingford and Woodford Green candidate
Chris Brody was suspended after the party found a personal blog post where he confessed to a sexual assault while on a secure mental health ward, reports Marco Marcelline"
Lab 504 LD 53 Con 43 SNP 21 PC 4 Ref 3 Green 2 Others 20
SKS fans please explain
Explain what that non MRP Polls are exaggerating the Lab lead?
If anyone wants to bet SKS will get over 500 seats I am happy to oppose that in a charity bet!
I reckon the 10pm Exit poll is going to be as big a shock to SKS fans as the 2017 one.
But we will see.
If you think that Labour is going to do worse in seats than it did when Corbyn humiliatingly lost the 2017 election to a dead duck like Theresa May I’m happy to offer real money. The party led by your boy failed to get as many votes as another party. That’s how politics fucking works. You still fail to grasp that even a good second place is the first loser don’t you?
I have already got £100 at 8/1 with Sky Bet that SKS gets less than the 12.9m Jezza got in 2017 thanks.
Current price with them is now 10/11 did you miss the 8/1?
You spectacularly miss the point I’m making. The 12m Corbyn got in 2017 was less than the 13.6m May’s Tories got. He lost. He fucked up. He’s a failure who condemned us to a whole series of Tory victories. This is about beating the Conservatives, not history. How much have you got on the result that matters, you strange Tory helper?
12.9m is the bet not 12m.
I think the art of political betting is spotting a ridiculous price for something to happen.
Remember GE 2017 was a very profitable night after all and sundry had written Corbyns Labour off in many seats they won.
Calling me a Tory helper is a bit pathetic given SKS is welcoming vile Tories on a daily basis.
A vote for SKS is a vote for continuation Tory. Wake up.
Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it
59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
Also it's bonkers that Walloon means French speaking. Least French looking word I can imagine.
Same etymological origin as Wales, Wallachia, Gaul.
Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it
59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
Also it's bonkers that Walloon means French speaking. Least French looking word I can imagine.
The community languages of Wallonie are French AND German.
I’ve just noticed my ferry to St Malo - pedestrian - costs £400 - for ONE person
Of course I’m not paying but who the heck would pay that when a flight is less than half and takes an hour rather than 10 hours? Keeps out the riff raff I guess
This is also my first ever trip to Portsmouth. To my intense surprise I quite like it. Gritty and port-y but with a hint of the spectacular. The sun glints on grey metal
Been bombed to bits and not entirely recovered. My favourite bits are Old Pourtsmouth - the Point where this cartoon was drawn - and the view from the outside coffee tables at Priddy's Hard (the old ammunition depot oppposite). And Portchester Castle.
Portchester Castle is the distillation of English history. Saxon shore fort built.by the Romans 1600 years ago. Rebuilt by Henry Ii iirc. Part of Henry V's fleet set sail from here for France. Surrounded by Georgian houses. Used for Napoleonic prisoners of war who built a theatre in the keep. Victorian church in the bailey. Cricket ground in the bailey still in use. Stand atop the keep and see the whole of Portsmouth harbour.
One of my favourite places in the world.
Extremely noomy, Portchester castle
Also I once had sex in a car near there
In unrelated news that has nothing to do with my fading virility the fuckers at ******* ferries have just stolen my favourite old knife: a spyderco tenacious
Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it
59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
Also it's bonkers that Walloon means French speaking. Least French looking word I can imagine.
Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.
Back to Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics - you may hope and believe something can't happen but that usually means it will.
It was the same in 1997 - Labour didn't believe what was happening because nothing like it had happened before. The Conservatives were the same. Both were saying even on the cusp of polling day it was close etc, etc.
Others knew but didn't believe what their eyes, ears and data were telling them.
It's a similar position now - nobody believes Labour will get 500 seats and the Conservatives 100 seats and yet the data and anecdotal information they must be seeing at Labour and Conservative HQ will be telling them something they still refuse to accept.
Starting from the numbers is just not the right way to do things
Mayor of Hiroshima: no single bomb in history has ever caused 1% of the number of casualties you claim. Your report can safely be ignored
Manchester CID: that would be 25 times as many murders as the previous record for a GP. Safe to close this file.
Etc etc
I really don't understand your answer.
All sorts of information is being fed back to the various Party headquarters from both the so-called air war and the so-called ground war. The question is whether those looking at the information understand what they are seeing and accept it and will act on it.
Will, for example, Labour activists be diverted into seats which they had never considered as prospects? The Conservatives seem to be falling back to an inner ring of seats with 20,000 majorities or more and are defending those frantically? Will the LDs move their limited resources beyond the obvious targets into areas which have become promising following local success?
The last 10-11 days of any election are critical - decisions taken this weekend on the data available will have huge impact and significance.
Tonight's polls continue to slow Conservative support sliding to 20% or below - that's uncharted water for the Party in terms of any election.
Lab 504 LD 53 Con 43 SNP 21 PC 4 Ref 3 Green 2 Others 20
SKS fans please explain
Explain what that non MRP Polls are exaggerating the Lab lead?
If anyone wants to bet SKS will get over 500 seats I am happy to oppose that in a charity bet!
I reckon the 10pm Exit poll is going to be as big a shock to SKS fans as the 2017 one.
But we will see.
If you think that Labour is going to do worse in seats than it did when Corbyn humiliatingly lost the 2017 election to a dead duck like Theresa May I’m happy to offer real money. The party led by your boy failed to get as many votes as another party. That’s how politics fucking works. You still fail to grasp that even a good second place is the first loser don’t you?
I have already got £100 at 8/1 with Sky Bet that SKS gets less than the 12.9m Jezza got in 2017 thanks.
Current price with them is now 10/11 did you miss the 8/1?
You spectacularly miss the point I’m making. The 12m Corbyn got in 2017 was less than the 13.6m May’s Tories got. He lost. He fucked up. He’s a failure who condemned us to a whole series of Tory victories. This is about beating the Conservatives, not history. How much have you got on the result that matters, you strange Tory helper?
Er this is a betting site. BJO should be betting on results that offer value, not on what he wants to happen
TBF, 2017 was the highest Labour votes ever. I am surprised he got 8/1 on it since Starmer would need to get the highest Labour vote count in history.
Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it
59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
Also it's bonkers that Walloon means French speaking. Least French looking word I can imagine.
That's because it's Wallon in French and Walloon is a different langue d'oïl to French (although hardly anyone speaks it any more)
"Green Party suspends Chingford and Woodford Green candidate
Chris Brody was suspended after the party found a personal blog post where he confessed to a sexual assault while on a secure mental health ward, reports Marco Marcelline"
I see the wikipedia page now lists him as an Independent, which is a bit dodgy, it should show him as the Green but include a note about support being withdrawn, as is the case with Labour in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it
59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
I used to look after the ill gotten Congolese gains of the larger number of the wealthiest Belgian families and there was a very clear differentiation between them in person.
The frenchies were very sophisticated, artful, maybe just “sly”. Very money driven and materialist, the Flemish ones were delightfully simple.
The frenchies would turn up looking like royalty and behave in a cod noble way and their richer Flemish equivalents would turn up dressed straight from the farm with dirty fingernails and shabby clothing.
This doesn’t add anything to anything but just an observation.
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
If they are not sitting members of the House of Lords yes they do. Previously most of them were disenfranchised because their various titles gave them a seat in he upper house but that’s not been the case since 1999. Technically even the King can vote but the monarch does not do so in keeping with the no politics tradition.
Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it
59% of Belgians are Dutch speakers.
Isn’t that usually described as Flemish?
The official language is Dutch. Belgian Dutch differs very little from Netherlands Dutch. There are a variety of dialects, but not all Dutch-speaking Belgians are Flemings: some are Brabantians or Limburgers
They might be, in 2019 the LDs got a number of centrist voters who couldn't stand Boris or Corbyn.
Now Sunak has replaced Boris and more centrist Starmer replaced Corbyn a number will go Labour who voted LD at the last general election and a few LDs in 2019 may even go Tory (albeit far fewer than the number of 2019 Tories who were Boris fans who have gone Reform). We know that TSE and NigelF voted LD in 2019 for instance but will vote for Sunak this time
@TheScreamingEagles is voting Tory? That I did not expect. Assumed he would go Liberal, maybe even Labour!
I am voting Tory to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary otherwise I would have abstained.
I don't know how to break it to you but your vote will *not* be keeping Dave at the Foreign Office.
Also, there is no Father Christmas. (Might as well get it all over in one go.)
I know but not voting to keep Dave in government is fucking anathema to me.
As my friends and colleagues observed recently, I am more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife which I know isn't a great reflection on me but sums up my adoration for Dave.
I can guarantee Cameron himself is not voting for Rishi.
He will be (though he probably voted LD in 2019 rather than for Boris)
He doesn't have a vote...
In a general?
Nope. Peers, aliens,* lunatics** and criminals do not have a vote.
*Before causing somebody to have a meltdown, that's a technical term for those who are not British or Irish nationals or Commonwealth citizens with leave to remain.
**This begs certain questions around Nadine Dorries and Richard Burgon.
Serious question, do the Royal Family have the vote?
Proposed electoral reform to modernise the nation:
Adopt the Eurovision voting system with the Royal Family playing the role of the judges. The points awarded by the Royals would count for 50% of the total.
Declarations would be made by videolink to a live venue where candidates would sit together in the green room.
The Green support I find most difficult to explain. They are not a fringe political force, but they are not major either. I find it hard to believe all 'true' leftwing people are voting Green as Labour would not be at 40% with centre left and centre (and some centre right) alone. In the South the LDs poll better, and in most of the country the Greens are barely present even with some good local gains in the last few years.
So how are they getting to 9%?
I’ve been knocking. Heartened by the number of small c conservatives being positive. I like wildlife and clean rivers. They nod and talk about renationalise the rail and water. Insulate. I nod.
I would feel bad if I didn’t think I’m sucking up more Cons and Lib Dem, than Labour left.
I’m getting 1/2 Labour, more Green than Con, but then I smile, listen, and sympathise. I think they may be quite polite.
Neither do I. Shy Tories, Rishi's Labour tax bomb, don't knows, punish Nigel surge and don't let Labour get a landslide surgecould all happen.
Back to Stodge's Tenth Law of Politics - you may hope and believe something can't happen but that usually means it will.
It was the same in 1997 - Labour didn't believe what was happening because nothing like it had happened before. The Conservatives were the same. Both were saying even on the cusp of polling day it was close etc, etc.
Others knew but didn't believe what their eyes, ears and data were telling them.
It's a similar position now - nobody believes Labour will get 500 seats and the Conservatives 100 seats and yet the data and anecdotal information they must be seeing at Labour and Conservative HQ will be telling them something they still refuse to accept.
And OK... Of the 400 or so Conservative candidates who were thinking in 2021/2, "next stop Westminster", most (250? 300?) must know, cognitively, that it ain't happening. They, and their opposition counterparts, and their campaign teams, have a pretty clear sense of where the front line is.
But the only way to endure the next fortnight is to shut those thoughts out, because to give up is to definitely lose.
We're in the "point of no return" phase of the election. A bit like the ten days after the start of a COVID lockdown. The numbers are happening, we can be pretty sure what will happen next. But it won't show up in the figures yet.
I’ve just noticed my ferry to St Malo - pedestrian - costs £400 - for ONE person
Of course I’m not paying but who the heck would pay that when a flight is less than half and takes an hour rather than 10 hours? Keeps out the riff raff I guess
This is also my first ever trip to Portsmouth. To my intense surprise I quite like it. Gritty and port-y but with a hint of the spectacular. The sun glints on grey metal
Been bombed to bits and not entirely recovered. My favourite bits are Old Pourtsmouth - the Point where this cartoon was drawn - and the view from the outside coffee tables at Priddy's Hard (the old ammunition depot oppposite). And Portchester Castle.
Portchester Castle is the distillation of English history. Saxon shore fort built.by the Romans 1600 years ago. Rebuilt by Henry Ii iirc. Part of Henry V's fleet set sail from here for France. Surrounded by Georgian houses. Used for Napoleonic prisoners of war who built a theatre in the keep. Victorian church in the bailey. Cricket ground in the bailey still in use. Stand atop the keep and see the whole of Portsmouth harbour.
One of my favourite places in the world.
Also, the site of the now sadly defunct "Mighty Fine" pub. Once voted Britain's roughest pub where the stripper would gob in your mouth for a fiver on "Forces Only" nights. At one point the bouncer was a dwarf who would regularly get hung on a coat hook from which eyrie he would lash out in impotent rage at anybody within range with a pool cue. The landlord was trans years before JK Rowling started going on about them.
Completely off topic, but the dominance of Flemish speakers in Belgium's national teams has always confused me. There's no cultural or demographic reason for it
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
In the case of Tower Hamlets, the criminal theft of votes was proven in court.
Friend of mine used to live in Tower Hamlets, and was registered for a postal vote. One year it didn’t arrive, so she went to the Office to complain, and was told to go straight to the police. She did, and a large bundle of voting forms was subsequently found in the house of the Council official who was supposed to distribute them. That’s what she told me, anyway.
To all those conservatives thinking of voting Labour or any other party but absolutely do not want Farage to have a future in the conservative party, then the only way to do that is to vote conservative notwithstanding so many doubts to ensure a conservative party has enough seats to provide a non Farage opposition
I have just posted our 2 votes for our conservative
Voting conservative will not stop Starmer becoming PM with a substantial majority
Good that your wife let you post them. Did she come with you to make sure you didn't put them in the dog poo bin by mistake?
Unnecessary and insulting but then I expected it
At least your household is doing its little bit to balance off all those in Tower Hamlets where Tories so often allege that it’s the man of the house who gets to fill in the postal votes.
In the case of Tower Hamlets, the criminal theft of votes was proven in court.
Friend of mine used to live in Tower Hamlets, and was registered for a postal vote. One year it didn’t arrive, so she went to the Office to complain, and was told to go straight to the police. She did, and a large bundle of voting forms was subsequently found in the house of the Council official who was supposed to distribute them. That’s what she told me, anyway.
My flatmate had his vote stolen - polling card sent to a different flat. That apparently had dozens of people living there. When he tried to report it to the police a curious saga ensued.
He was first told that it wasn’t a crime. Yes, really. He was told nothing would be done.
He insisted on making a statement. When asked to sign it, he read it. It bore no relation to what he had said, included an addition of a fictitious kicking on the door of the flat his vote had been registered to (he never went there) and was full of crude and racist language. He was a Lib Dem of the kind who would stop a conversation to correct someone for not using First Australians to refer to the original inhabitants - not exactly the chap to call people P**i….
When asked, they claimed that the statement was accurate, it would take too much time to change it and they would change it later. He said he would wait. In the end they managed to write down his recorded words accurately.
All in all it took him the better part of a day to record a crime.
Oh, and no further action was taken.
That is a shocking anecdote. And yet I’m not full of doubt. Any organisation with that little trust must go.
It is time to end the Met.
Why is it shocking? Because it happened to a nice middle class chap?
During the Rotherham comedy, a step-dad (IIRC) made repeated complaints to the police. In response, a policeman warned him that if the complaints continued, they would write him up as a racist. And then under the legislation for dealing with “unacceptable” neighbours, have the family thrown out of their council house.
I can tell you another fun one about a friend, a watch, a policeman, £1.21 and another policeman.
Comments
YouGov did their first MRP I believe, and that was really close. I remember talking about it during the GOTV sessions during the day. The response on the doorstep in my own marginal was such that I doubt many Labour members who were knocking on doors were that shocked.
This time round, I doubt many expect that it will really be 500+ seats. I think most will be happy with any kind of solid majority.
Ever.
So how are they getting to 9%?
Doesn't mean they're not in with a shout of holding their existing seat and winning all three targets though.
I think one of our posters also suggested the possibility of a freak result in one of the IoW seats, based on the Tory vote splintering in several directions at once.
Anyway, not beyond the realms of possibility that the Greens could win one quarter as many votes as Reform, but Reform could end up with one quarter as many seats as the Greens.
I suspect that's a record low Conservative VI from Opinium (certainly under Sunak).
After all, he probably says his own name less often than he says apologies for Russian atrocities.
The media has led the country into an anti-Tory fervour
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/22/the-media-has-led-the-country-into-an-anti-tory-fervour/
I'm not joking. You watch a recording of the BBC1 10pm news the night before every GE in the last 30 to 40 years and they always say:
- Politicians all feeling nervous
- They don't think polls match what they're hearing on the ground
- Reports of unusual movements in marginals
- Seat totals are very unpredictable if marginals are moving differently
Note they never ever say which way the movements are or which party is expecting to do better or worse than expected.
It's basically a standard playbook to cover all possible eventualities.
Current price with them is now 10/11 did you miss the 8/1?
I'll say the same thing when Corbynites moaned in the same way - it's the job of a politician to overcome a hostile media, if one is faced, not cry about it.
But maybe they in particular are just realising than boosting Reform and Farage may have negative consequences.
So either they say "sorry, no foot/bike spaces available" or they charge you something not far off the car rate.
But I believe it is the lowest score to date.
Allo Prince Richard, Allo Prince Richard? Quels sont les votes du jury du Prince Richard?
The 33% for the Tories? Not so much. But they will still be WELL above 20%. They have not lost north of half their vote since 2019. No way.
https://www.youtube.com/live/oJUvTVdTMyY?si=HPFr0xOPMJb65inZ
Massive win on my only decent size bet this GE
It was the same in 1997 - Labour didn't believe what was happening because nothing like it had happened before. The Conservatives were the same. Both were saying even on the cusp of polling day it was close etc, etc.
Others knew but didn't believe what their eyes, ears and data were telling them.
It's a similar position now - nobody believes Labour will get 500 seats and the Conservatives 100 seats and yet the data and anecdotal information they must be seeing at Labour and Conservative HQ will be telling them something they still refuse to accept.
Saxon shore fort built.by the Romans 1600 years ago.
Rebuilt by Henry Ii iirc.
Part of Henry V's fleet set sail from here for France.
Surrounded by Georgian houses.
Used for Napoleonic prisoners of war who built a theatre in the keep.
Victorian church in the bailey.
Cricket ground in the bailey still in use.
Stand atop the keep and see the whole of Portsmouth harbour.
One of my favourite places in the world.
According to research carried out by Techne UK, around four in 10 people – 41 per cent – aged 18 to 34 have either not registered to vote (24 per cent) or are registered but have decided not to go to the ballot box (17 per cent) next month.
It's curious how some people will always vote no matter how disappointed, whilst others may not even start and it becomes a habit.
I get feeling like the young are getting shafted - I'm only just out of that demographic band myself, and it is true - but without wanting to pin the blame on them, sitting things out strikes me as an ineffective way of changing that.
Governments will continue to get elected, and if they can do so despite younger people not turning out, that will inevitably have an impact on what actions they take.
Or already has.
https://news.sky.com/story/david-cameron-cleared-of-breaking-lobbying-rules-after-allegedly-texting-sunak-over-greensill-12257682
They ought to make more of the Brunel connection though, and Dickens. Oh, and Arnie lived there for a period as well! I wonder if he'll be back?
Mayor of Hiroshima: no single bomb in history has ever caused 1% of the number of casualties you claim. Your report can safely be ignored
Manchester CID: that would be 25 times as many murders as the previous record for a GP. Safe to close this file.
Etc etc
But I hope the corpse of the Tories after the election tries to resist him a bit rather than just bends over.
It's easy to stand on the keep's roof and look out, and wonder what the Romans would have seen from the lower walls, or the medieval knights from the top of the keep.
It's a magnificent place.
https://x.com/ub1ub2/status/1804552866490659093
But nevertheless MUST deplore your characterization of your no-doubt devoted care staff as "hors de combat".
Get well soon - or at least better sooner - and am sure you'll shortly be back to knocking up carefully-targeted voters in your accustomed style.
Irrespective, he got into bed with a total crook.
A cursory glance at his political history reveals him to be too corrupt and scummy even for the British Parliament.
Most normal people know that not being a criminal is a baseline expectation, expecially for those in public life.
He sent:
> Nine WhatsApps to the Chancellor Rishi Sunak
> Two WhatsApp messages to Richard Sharp, adviser to Rishi Sunak
> 12 texts to Sir Tom Scholar, the permanent secretary at the Treasury.
A dozen texts/emails/phone calls and other messages were sent to: the Cabinet Office minister, Michael Gove; the health secretary, Matt Hancock; the vaccines minister, Nadhim Zahawi; the economic secretary, John Glen; and the financial secretary, Jesse Norman.
Four emails and one text went to Sir Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor of the Bank of England.
Seven messages and calls went to Sheridan Westlake, a senior adviser to Boris Johnson.
Cameron often signed off the messages “Dc” or with a simple “👍”
In a text message to Scholar on 6 March 2020, when the financial markets were in freefall at the start of the pandemic:
“I am riding to the rescue with supply chain finance with my new friend Lex Greensill”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/11/greensill-the-scale-of-david-camerons-lobbying-texts-revealed
https://walthamforestecho.co.uk/2024/06/21/green-party-suspends-chingford-and-woodford-green-candidate/
"Green Party suspends Chingford and Woodford Green candidate
Chris Brody was suspended after the party found a personal blog post where he confessed to a sexual assault while on a secure mental health ward, reports Marco Marcelline"
I think the art of political betting is spotting a ridiculous price for something to happen.
Remember GE 2017 was a very profitable night after all and sundry had written Corbyns Labour off in many seats they won.
Calling me a Tory helper is a bit pathetic given SKS is welcoming vile Tories on a daily basis.
A vote for SKS is a vote for continuation Tory. Wake up.
Also I once had sex in a car near there
In unrelated news that has nothing to do with my fading virility the fuckers at ******* ferries have just stolen my favourite old knife: a spyderco tenacious
Ferries are shit. And expensive. Fuck em
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walloon_language
All sorts of information is being fed back to the various Party headquarters from both the so-called air war and the so-called ground war. The question is whether those looking at the information understand what they are seeing and accept it and will act on it.
Will, for example, Labour activists be diverted into seats which they had never considered as prospects? The Conservatives seem to be falling back to an inner ring of seats with 20,000 majorities or more and are defending those frantically? Will the LDs move their limited resources beyond the obvious targets into areas which have become promising following local success?
The last 10-11 days of any election are critical - decisions taken this weekend on the data available will have huge impact and significance.
Tonight's polls continue to slow Conservative support sliding to 20% or below - that's uncharted water for the Party in terms of any election.
NEW THREAD
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chingford_and_Woodford_Green_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeenshire_North_and_Moray_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency) Sigh.
The frenchies were very sophisticated, artful, maybe just “sly”. Very money driven and materialist, the Flemish ones were delightfully simple.
The frenchies would turn up looking like royalty and behave in a cod noble way and their richer Flemish equivalents would turn up dressed straight from the farm with dirty fingernails and shabby clothing.
This doesn’t add anything to anything but just an observation.
I would feel bad if I didn’t think I’m sucking up more Cons and Lib Dem, than Labour left.
I’m getting 1/2 Labour, more Green than Con, but then I smile, listen, and sympathise. I think they may be quite polite.
Not a bit surprised by 9%.
Goodness knows which seat.
But the only way to endure the next fortnight is to shut those thoughts out, because to give up is to definitely lose.
We're in the "point of no return" phase of the election. A bit like the ten days after the start of a COVID lockdown. The numbers are happening, we can be pretty sure what will happen next. But it won't show up in the figures yet.
During the Rotherham comedy, a step-dad (IIRC) made repeated complaints to the police. In response, a policeman warned him that if the complaints continued, they would write him up as a racist. And then under the legislation for dealing with “unacceptable” neighbours, have the family thrown out of their council house.
I can tell you another fun one about a friend, a watch, a policeman, £1.21 and another policeman.