Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
I thought the Gambling Commission regulated licence holders (i.e. bookies) rather than punters?
They also do the equivalent of monitoring insider trading for betting. Its a grey area, so being part of NU10K or whatever he will face an investigation, some joshing from his colleagues and nothing else.
Would he not have to be in a position to actually affect the outcome to be in real trouble, rather than simply aware of something that may or may not be announced in the future?
This situation sounds like a groom in a stable knowing who’s the lame horse and who’s the strong horse before a race.
(1)A person commits an offence if he— (a)cheats at gambling
Examples are given but they are not defined as comprehensive, so it comes down to an interpretation of cheating.
Phil Iveys edge sorting is the biggest test case so far where he was found to be a cheat in civil court and it did create a lower bar for what is considered cheating:
"This could be one of the most significant judgments in criminal law for many years, if as the Supreme Court suggest, a new test for dishonesty is applied. Since Ghosh juries have been told that defendants are only guilty if the dishonest conduct involved in the offence was dishonest by the standards of ordinary reasonable and honest people and also that they must have realised that ordinary honest people would regard their behaviour as dishonest. If this second limb of the test is to disappear, it might make convictions for dishonesty related offences easier to obtain, particularly in the more complex cases, such as those involving financial fraud.”
Fascinating case and well worth a read if your are interested in betting (or cheating!)
I think the crucial point was that the gambler and his assistant contrived the situation so that they had an edge, rather than the house, in what was otherwise a game of chance. They were not merely passively observing the cards (which would be the case with card-counting, another technique which casinos have to watch out for but which, I believe, is lawful.)
Reluctantly, I have to come to the conclusions their Lordships were right.
Contrived vs requested. Caveat emptor imo, Ivey shouldn't have a duty of care to protect a casino from bad decisions.
Interesting, None, but not sure I agree. He got the Casino to handle the cards by subterfuge.
Smart, but cheating, I think.
I would be happy to accept that on the condition that casinos are equally guilty of cheating if they don't explain each advantage they have over the clients to such potential clients and ask them are you really sure you want to carry on knowing this at each stage.
Ah, yes, but that's a different matter.
Likewise Bookmakers should be open and honest about not desiring the custom of successful punters, but as we both know, pigs will indeed fly first.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
This is why one should bet in high-street betting shops. Our authoritarian pensionerism 2020s will do its level best to eliminate gambling and we should bet prolifically in betting shops to send a message to these nanny-state botherers that gambling is great fun and none of their bloody business.
I'm afraid that a Starmer government will try to put income tax on betting winnings. Just the sort of thing they'd do. Would tick a lot of boxes for them at the same time.
So because there is so little to attack that is actually in the Labour manifesto, you make up things to attack which are not. Understood.
That’s already the case if you bet as your trade - but the consequence of that is that loses are also allowed to be deducted as an allowed expense
Hence it’s never going to happen because it’s better to let amateurs keep their winnings rather than allowing all loses to be deducted against tax
Erhh that's not true. I was a professional gambler for nearly 10 years and didn't pay a penny in tax on my gambling winnings. There was a test case in law which solidified this.
Both the above are broadly correct. Key to eek's statement is "as a trade". HMRC consider most "advantage betting" as not constituting a trade, however expert, systematic or habitual. So the vast majority of UK punters are not liable to income or capital taxes through betting regardless of win/loss/turnover.
But it is certainly possible through either choice or circumstance to be betting as a trade
Choice - set up a ltd co that bets and it will pay the usual taxes. Also can impacts bookies who also bet personally.
Circumstance - Make most of your money in the related betting sector, providing a service:
"Some ‘professional gamblers’ do carry on a trade, for example, where they receive appearance money for appearing on television programmes. They are providing a service to a customer (the television production company) for reward. Whether their gambling winnings are proceeds of that trade would depend upon the facts."
Sure, I bet Star Lizard will be liable for tax. I know people plenty who got endorsements etc, yes they set up a limited company for that, but not the actual gambling, that was all still tax free. At one point I also had a business that was gambling related, and paid my taxes on that / HMRC have looked at my situation. Never have they asked for any tax on my actual gambling winnings.
Star Lizard is the consulting vehicle which pays tax as a normal consulting company would. Their betting syndicate won't afaik.
It is possible to set up a ltd co to do the betting and it would pay tax on winnings.
Electoral Calculus has got the seat down as a Labour gain, but not by much. Isn't an LD gain more likely in that neck of the woods? Anyone know which is likely to present the greater challenge?
I'd have thought her personal reputation was such that she would lose against the office cat if it stood but if neither Labour nor the LDs step strategically aside her chances of returning to the House to reinvigorate the Conservative Party must be quite good.
Zero chancecof LD breakthrough here, at their height in 2010 they got 21%. It's rural, agricultural with three small market towns, two of which are classically Tory and Thetford is where Lab strength is highest. If it drops it will be Tories staying home and the Indy (a former Turnip Taliban) taking a few %. Labour ran Gillian Shepherd close here in 97 but its trended ever more Tory since.
I'd add if it goes, Norfolk will almost certainly be blueless
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
I thought the Gambling Commission regulated licence holders (i.e. bookies) rather than punters?
They also do the equivalent of monitoring insider trading for betting. Its a grey area, so being part of NU10K or whatever he will face an investigation, some joshing from his colleagues and nothing else.
Would he not have to be in a position to actually affect the outcome to be in real trouble, rather than simply aware of something that may or may not be announced in the future?
This situation sounds like a groom in a stable knowing who’s the lame horse and who’s the strong horse before a race.
(1)A person commits an offence if he— (a)cheats at gambling
Examples are given but they are not defined as comprehensive, so it comes down to an interpretation of cheating.
Phil Iveys edge sorting is the biggest test case so far where he was found to be a cheat in civil court and it did create a lower bar for what is considered cheating:
"This could be one of the most significant judgments in criminal law for many years, if as the Supreme Court suggest, a new test for dishonesty is applied. Since Ghosh juries have been told that defendants are only guilty if the dishonest conduct involved in the offence was dishonest by the standards of ordinary reasonable and honest people and also that they must have realised that ordinary honest people would regard their behaviour as dishonest. If this second limb of the test is to disappear, it might make convictions for dishonesty related offences easier to obtain, particularly in the more complex cases, such as those involving financial fraud.”
Fascinating case and well worth a read if your are interested in betting (or cheating!)
I think the crucial point was that the gambler and his assistant contrived the situation so that they had an edge, rather than the house, in what was otherwise a game of chance. They were not merely passively observing the cards (which would be the case with card-counting, another technique which casinos have to watch out for but which, I believe, is lawful.)
Reluctantly, I have to come to the conclusions their Lordships were right.
Contrived vs requested. Caveat emptor imo, Ivey shouldn't have a duty of care to protect a casino from bad decisions.
Interesting, None, but not sure I agree. He got the Casino to handle the cards by subterfuge.
Smart, but cheating, I think.
I would be happy to accept that on the condition that casinos are equally guilty of cheating if they don't explain each advantage they have over the clients to such potential clients and ask them are you really sure you want to carry on knowing this at each stage.
Ah, yes, but that's a different matter.
Likewise Bookmakers should be open and honest about not desiring the custom of successful punters, but as we both know, pigs will indeed fly first.
It is the same. Either there is a duty to make the other side aware of advantageous circumstances or there is not. If its only one way, it should apply to the bigger party, not the individual client.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
This is why one should bet in high-street betting shops. Our authoritarian pensionerism 2020s will do its level best to eliminate gambling and we should bet prolifically in betting shops to send a message to these nanny-state botherers that gambling is great fun and none of their bloody business.
I'm afraid that a Starmer government will try to put income tax on betting winnings. Just the sort of thing they'd do. Would tick a lot of boxes for them at the same time.
So because there is so little to attack that is actually in the Labour manifesto, you make up things to attack which are not. Understood.
That’s already the case if you bet as your trade - but the consequence of that is that loses are also allowed to be deducted as an allowed expense
Hence it’s never going to happen because it’s better to let amateurs keep their winnings rather than allowing all loses to be deducted against tax
Erhh that's not true. I was a professional gambler for nearly 10 years and didn't pay a penny in tax on my gambling winnings. There was a test case in law which solidified this.
Both the above are broadly correct. Key to eek's statement is "as a trade". HMRC consider most "advantage betting" as not constituting a trade, however expert, systematic or habitual. So the vast majority of UK punters are not liable to income or capital taxes through betting regardless of win/loss/turnover.
But it is certainly possible through either choice or circumstance to be betting as a trade
Choice - set up a ltd co that bets and it will pay the usual taxes. Also can impacts bookies who also bet personally.
Circumstance - Make most of your money in the related betting sector, providing a service:
"Some ‘professional gamblers’ do carry on a trade, for example, where they receive appearance money for appearing on television programmes. They are providing a service to a customer (the television production company) for reward. Whether their gambling winnings are proceeds of that trade would depend upon the facts."
Sure, I bet Star Lizard will be liable for tax. I know people plenty who got endorsements etc, yes they set up a limited company for that, but not the actual gambling, that was all still tax free. At one point I also had a business that was gambling related, and paid my taxes on that / HMRC have looked at my situation. Never have they asked for any tax on my actual gambling winnings.
Star Lizard is the consulting vehicle which pays tax as a normal consulting company would. Their betting syndicate won't afaik.
It is possible to set up a ltd co to do the betting and it would pay tax on winnings.
I actually don't know on the betting syndicate side of things. My point was AFAIK that is the sort of thing that HMRC really mean by trade in the gambling industry.
Given all the action is placed in Asian markets and with "sharp" bookies, I would be surprised if the actual betting part is even UK registered.
5 solid pages of stiff, centrist, earnest PB dad-waffle, entirely devoid of wit, insight, or notable intelligence. Not a single decent joke or sparkling observation, and introduced by one of the dullest headers in recent PB history
*returns to Isaac Babel’s Odessan stories*
Serious question, assuming Labour decide to wallop capital gains tax up to 40% or more, where best to spend the next 5 years?
Find a beach worth settling into for five years (Mauritius?) or try to do the digital nomad thing and move around every six months?
In property it will reinforce the move to small property companies rather than personal ownership.
Flipping from one to the other is expensive, though there are various allowances which may help.
If they are after more CGT, one option is to reform taxation of corporate property vehicles, and possibly trusts - maybe including historic trusts.
I can also (maybe) see something being done wrt to UK citizens abroad.
When Boris Johnson abandoned his US citizenship, he reportedly received tax bill of £50k - CGT on a main residence.
But it may be the new Govt will need time to work through all the wrinkles.
In the meantime, make sure your investment is in the ISA before the election.
The fact I need to move if CGT rises to income tax bands (40%+) might be indicative of a bigger problem for me personally. We're talking seven figures - a bit too big to comfortably fit in an ISA.
Ultimately, I'm a classic example of homo economicus - I make the decisions that maximise my own personal financial gain.
I have friends who have already moved to Dubai in anticipation of it. Dubai isn't my scene, plus the cost of living there quickly eats up a lot of the benefits of being in a lower tax jurisdiction.
Sell everything now and take a 28% hit?
20% hit, but yes, also an option. 28% is the rate for property. Which is why 20% -> 40% is such a bitter pill to swallow. 20 to 25%, maybe, but it's simply not in my economic interest to remain in the UK with CGT taxed under income tax rules.
As Francis says downthread, capital flight will be quick and fast if it happens. I have friends in the same wealth bracket - entrepreneurs looking to sell their first business, crypto bros, people who got lucky and bought NVDA - who have already done, or are looking to do something similar.
Dubai is popular with some of my friends, but I'm not a "Dubai person" tbh.
You will also have a problem regarding residency given that you will have already been in the Uk 90 days this tax year.
5 solid pages of stiff, centrist, earnest PB dad-waffle, entirely devoid of wit, insight, or notable intelligence. Not a single decent joke or sparkling observation, and introduced by one of the dullest headers in recent PB history
*returns to Isaac Babel’s Odessan stories*
Serious question, assuming Labour decide to wallop capital gains tax up to 40% or more, where best to spend the next 5 years?
Find a beach worth settling into for five years (Mauritius?) or try to do the digital nomad thing and move around every six months?
In property it will reinforce the move to small property companies rather than personal ownership.
Flipping from one to the other is expensive, though there are various allowances which may help.
If they are after more CGT, one option is to reform taxation of corporate property vehicles, and possibly trusts - maybe including historic trusts.
I can also (maybe) see something being done wrt to UK citizens abroad.
When Boris Johnson abandoned his US citizenship, he reportedly received tax bill of £50k - CGT on a main residence.
But it may be the new Govt will need time to work through all the wrinkles.
In the meantime, make sure your investment is in the ISA before the election.
The fact I need to move if CGT rises to income tax bands (40%+) might be indicative of a bigger problem for me personally. We're talking seven figures - a bit too big to comfortably fit in an ISA.
Ultimately, I'm a classic example of homo economicus - I make the decisions that maximise my own personal financial gain.
I have friends who have already moved to Dubai in anticipation of it. Dubai isn't my scene, plus the cost of living there quickly eats up a lot of the benefits of being in a lower tax jurisdiction.
Cost of living in Dubai can be high. I have a 1,500sqft 2.5 bed apartment that costs £2k a month in rent. Houses, even if you own them, come with hideous utility bills and are in gated communities with service charges. If you have seven figures you can get something pretty decent though. PM me if you want to discuss.
How much is electricity per kw/h and water per megalitre there?
Okay, Dubai utility bill. Various standing charges and extras, but bottom line, per month:
Apartment, 1,500sqft. £2k/month Electricity, 757kW, £48.50 (6.4p/kW) Water, 2,420gal, £21.50 (.09p/gal) VAT 5% on above £3.50 Sewerage £2.50 Municipality Fee £93 (based on rentable value) TOTAL £169.00.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
I thought the Gambling Commission regulated licence holders (i.e. bookies) rather than punters?
They also do the equivalent of monitoring insider trading for betting. Its a grey area, so being part of NU10K or whatever he will face an investigation, some joshing from his colleagues and nothing else.
Would he not have to be in a position to actually affect the outcome to be in real trouble, rather than simply aware of something that may or may not be announced in the future?
This situation sounds like a groom in a stable knowing who’s the lame horse and who’s the strong horse before a race.
(1)A person commits an offence if he— (a)cheats at gambling
Examples are given but they are not defined as comprehensive, so it comes down to an interpretation of cheating.
Phil Iveys edge sorting is the biggest test case so far where he was found to be a cheat in civil court and it did create a lower bar for what is considered cheating:
"This could be one of the most significant judgments in criminal law for many years, if as the Supreme Court suggest, a new test for dishonesty is applied. Since Ghosh juries have been told that defendants are only guilty if the dishonest conduct involved in the offence was dishonest by the standards of ordinary reasonable and honest people and also that they must have realised that ordinary honest people would regard their behaviour as dishonest. If this second limb of the test is to disappear, it might make convictions for dishonesty related offences easier to obtain, particularly in the more complex cases, such as those involving financial fraud.”
Fascinating case and well worth a read if your are interested in betting (or cheating!)
I think the crucial point was that the gambler and his assistant contrived the situation so that they had an edge, rather than the house, in what was otherwise a game of chance. They were not merely passively observing the cards (which would be the case with card-counting, another technique which casinos have to watch out for but which, I believe, is lawful.)
Reluctantly, I have to come to the conclusions their Lordships were right.
Contrived vs requested. Caveat emptor imo, Ivey shouldn't have a duty of care to protect a casino from bad decisions.
Interesting, None, but not sure I agree. He got the Casino to handle the cards by subterfuge.
Smart, but cheating, I think.
I would be happy to accept that on the condition that casinos are equally guilty of cheating if they don't explain each advantage they have over the clients to such potential clients and ask them are you really sure you want to carry on knowing this at each stage.
Ah, yes, but that's a different matter.
Likewise Bookmakers should be open and honest about not desiring the custom of successful punters, but as we both know, pigs will indeed fly first.
It is the same. Either there is a duty to make the other side aware of advantageous circumstances or there is not. If its only one way, it should apply to the bigger party, not the individual client.
I sympathise, None, but it's a tricky area. What about mood music and soft lighting, never mind the scantily dressed hostesses?
Thanks. It's food for thought. It's why I come here.
Interesting article and broadly speaking I agree. I have been genuinely asking Tory voters what positive reasons there are to vote Tory for the last few weeks. ...
Rory Stewart said he would vote Tory if his Tory candidate was of the right sort.
Given that realistically Labour is going to win a majority, and given the prospect of the loony right taking over the Tory party, I wondered whether that might be the right thing to do.
But more than halfway through the campaign, the "About" section of my Tory candidate's website just says "Biography coming soon..."
I live in a constituency that according to the [polls should be a Tory/Lib Dem marginal, but I have no idea where the Tory candidate places himself.
Perhaps if he came out strongly as a "one nation" Tory it really might be worth supporting him. There has been no Tory literature so far. As it is, I don't know, so I think I had better vote Lib Dem.
I feel similar. I also have a realistic Tory/LD choice and it is actually pretty easy for me. Made more simple by the failure of the current Tory MP to deliver over the last few years.
But personally if the election destroys the Tory party and the right splinters off and joins Farage and the one nation Tories leave and join with the Lib Dem’s I will be fine with that outcome. The ‘broad church’ approach to political parties has proved to be pretty divisive. The extremes lie in wait for their host party to get into power and then cause disruption from the sides. Personally I think this is a moment where we could get real change, through a fundamental adjustment in British politics. If that results in more smaller parties and a more representative way of electing MPs I think that would build a better U.K. The current system has failed.
If the result is a far-right splinter party and a reasonable centre-right party, that will be OK.
But obviously it won't be good if the Tories maintain their position as the main party of the right, but are taken over (even more) by the loony right. Because in that case they may benefit from the usual swing of the pendulum in the two-party system.
As some-one who experienced the Liberal/SDP merger in the 1980s. If you try and merge two parties into one, you end up with three!
If your government is all about growth, growth, growth, whacking up CGT will have a negative impact on that.
Is there a better way to achieve massive capital flight, than taxing capital gains as income?
Nothing against @kyf_100 personally but Rachel Reeves job is to extract as much revenue out of them as possible. Demand too much and they flee. Keep the rates low and you're just collecting less tax. So it's a balance.
The balance is likely to be higher if you can offer an attractive lifestyle, good public services etc.
Interesting article and broadly speaking I agree. I have been genuinely asking Tory voters what positive reasons there are to vote Tory for the last few weeks. ...
Rory Stewart said he would vote Tory if his Tory candidate was of the right sort.
Given that realistically Labour is going to win a majority, and given the prospect of the loony right taking over the Tory party, I wondered whether that might be the right thing to do.
But more than halfway through the campaign, the "About" section of my Tory candidate's website just says "Biography coming soon..."
I live in a constituency that according to the [polls should be a Tory/Lib Dem marginal, but I have no idea where the Tory candidate places himself.
Perhaps if he came out strongly as a "one nation" Tory it really might be worth supporting him. There has been no Tory literature so far. As it is, I don't know, so I think I had better vote Lib Dem.
I feel similar. I also have a realistic Tory/LD choice and it is actually pretty easy for me. Made more simple by the failure of the current Tory MP to deliver over the last few years.
But personally if the election destroys the Tory party and the right splinters off and joins Farage and the one nation Tories leave and join with the Lib Dem’s I will be fine with that outcome. The ‘broad church’ approach to political parties has proved to be pretty divisive. The extremes lie in wait for their host party to get into power and then cause disruption from the sides. Personally I think this is a moment where we could get real change, through a fundamental adjustment in British politics. If that results in more smaller parties and a more representative way of electing MPs I think that would build a better U.K. The current system has failed.
If the result is a far-right splinter party and a reasonable centre-right party, that will be OK.
But obviously it won't be good if the Tories maintain their position as the main party of the right, but are taken over (even more) by the loony right. Because in that case they may benefit from the usual swing of the pendulum in the two-party system.
As some-one who experienced the Liberal/SDP merger in the 1980s. If you try and merge two parties into one, you end up with three!
There's no point debating with Farage. He is what he is, he'll get the vote he gets. He's a vibe - a brainstem feeling of resentment about smoking in pubs and classic cars and silver service. You might as well debate a Hamlet ad from the 80s."
Because saying “shut up, you racist bore”, rather than challenging what they say, never attracts more people to fringe candidates. Slow hand clap for Mr O’Hara.
No no. That will never work.
You need to shout - “shut up, you fascist gammon. There are no problems and if there were, you must shut up and enjoy the pain.”
IMO, the absolute for Nick Griffin was the Iain Dale interview where he never shouted racist at him once. He asked him what his policies where and it was basically nationalise everything, stop all immigration, open the coal mines again. Basically it was totally unworkable and he sounded like an idiot really quickly as Iain Dale asked him how any of this would actually work.
Nobody is asking Reform anything about policy and the bits we have seen don't seem realistic in current economic situation. Instead the lazy approach is to keep saying that a dog whistle and what do you think of Hitler.
Look at what is happening in France, Germany, Italy, simply screaming racist doesn't work. The Spiked and Speccy podcast (which is too often a bore of anti-wokeism stuff) were quite interesting this week talking about the political situation.
5 solid pages of stiff, centrist, earnest PB dad-waffle, entirely devoid of wit, insight, or notable intelligence. Not a single decent joke or sparkling observation, and introduced by one of the dullest headers in recent PB history
*returns to Isaac Babel’s Odessan stories*
Serious question, assuming Labour decide to wallop capital gains tax up to 40% or more, where best to spend the next 5 years?
Find a beach worth settling into for five years (Mauritius?) or try to do the digital nomad thing and move around every six months?
In property it will reinforce the move to small property companies rather than personal ownership.
Flipping from one to the other is expensive, though there are various allowances which may help.
If they are after more CGT, one option is to reform taxation of corporate property vehicles, and possibly trusts - maybe including historic trusts.
I can also (maybe) see something being done wrt to UK citizens abroad.
When Boris Johnson abandoned his US citizenship, he reportedly received tax bill of £50k - CGT on a main residence.
But it may be the new Govt will need time to work through all the wrinkles.
In the meantime, make sure your investment is in the ISA before the election.
The fact I need to move if CGT rises to income tax bands (40%+) might be indicative of a bigger problem for me personally. We're talking seven figures - a bit too big to comfortably fit in an ISA.
Ultimately, I'm a classic example of homo economicus - I make the decisions that maximise my own personal financial gain.
I have friends who have already moved to Dubai in anticipation of it. Dubai isn't my scene, plus the cost of living there quickly eats up a lot of the benefits of being in a lower tax jurisdiction.
Cost of living in Dubai can be high. I have a 1,500sqft 2.5 bed apartment that costs £2k a month in rent. Houses, even if you own them, come with hideous utility bills and are in gated communities with service charges. If you have seven figures you can get something pretty decent though. PM me if you want to discuss.
How much is electricity per kw/h and water per megalitre there?
Okay, Dubai utility bill. Various standing charges and extras, but bottom line, per month:
Apartment, 1,500sqft. £2k/month Electricity, 757kW, £48.50 (6.4p/kW) Water, 2,420gal, £21.50 (.09p/gal) VAT 5% on above £3.50 Sewerage £2.50 Municipality Fee £93 (based on rentable value) TOTAL £169.00.
Wow. Rent excluded, thats £30 a month less than I pay in council tax (Band C).
5 solid pages of stiff, centrist, earnest PB dad-waffle, entirely devoid of wit, insight, or notable intelligence. Not a single decent joke or sparkling observation, and introduced by one of the dullest headers in recent PB history
*returns to Isaac Babel’s Odessan stories*
Serious question, assuming Labour decide to wallop capital gains tax up to 40% or more, where best to spend the next 5 years?
Find a beach worth settling into for five years (Mauritius?) or try to do the digital nomad thing and move around every six months?
In property it will reinforce the move to small property companies rather than personal ownership.
Flipping from one to the other is expensive, though there are various allowances which may help.
If they are after more CGT, one option is to reform taxation of corporate property vehicles, and possibly trusts - maybe including historic trusts.
I can also (maybe) see something being done wrt to UK citizens abroad.
When Boris Johnson abandoned his US citizenship, he reportedly received tax bill of £50k - CGT on a main residence.
But it may be the new Govt will need time to work through all the wrinkles.
In the meantime, make sure your investment is in the ISA before the election.
The fact I need to move if CGT rises to income tax bands (40%+) might be indicative of a bigger problem for me personally. We're talking seven figures - a bit too big to comfortably fit in an ISA.
Ultimately, I'm a classic example of homo economicus - I make the decisions that maximise my own personal financial gain.
I have friends who have already moved to Dubai in anticipation of it. Dubai isn't my scene, plus the cost of living there quickly eats up a lot of the benefits of being in a lower tax jurisdiction.
Cost of living in Dubai can be high. I have a 1,500sqft 2.5 bed apartment that costs £2k a month in rent. Houses, even if you own them, come with hideous utility bills and are in gated communities with service charges. If you have seven figures you can get something pretty decent though. PM me if you want to discuss.
How much is electricity per kw/h and water per megalitre there?
Okay, Dubai utility bill. Various standing charges and extras, but bottom line, per month:
Apartment, 1,500sqft. £2k/month Electricity, 757kW, £48.50 (6.4p/kW) Water, 2,420gal, £21.50 (.09p/gal) VAT 5% on above £3.50 Sewerage £2.50 Municipality Fee £93 (based on rentable value) TOTAL £169.00.
5 solid pages of stiff, centrist, earnest PB dad-waffle, entirely devoid of wit, insight, or notable intelligence. Not a single decent joke or sparkling observation, and introduced by one of the dullest headers in recent PB history
*returns to Isaac Babel’s Odessan stories*
Serious question, assuming Labour decide to wallop capital gains tax up to 40% or more, where best to spend the next 5 years?
Find a beach worth settling into for five years (Mauritius?) or try to do the digital nomad thing and move around every six months?
In property it will reinforce the move to small property companies rather than personal ownership.
Flipping from one to the other is expensive, though there are various allowances which may help.
If they are after more CGT, one option is to reform taxation of corporate property vehicles, and possibly trusts - maybe including historic trusts.
I can also (maybe) see something being done wrt to UK citizens abroad.
When Boris Johnson abandoned his US citizenship, he reportedly received tax bill of £50k - CGT on a main residence.
But it may be the new Govt will need time to work through all the wrinkles.
In the meantime, make sure your investment is in the ISA before the election.
The fact I need to move if CGT rises to income tax bands (40%+) might be indicative of a bigger problem for me personally. We're talking seven figures - a bit too big to comfortably fit in an ISA.
Ultimately, I'm a classic example of homo economicus - I make the decisions that maximise my own personal financial gain.
I have friends who have already moved to Dubai in anticipation of it. Dubai isn't my scene, plus the cost of living there quickly eats up a lot of the benefits of being in a lower tax jurisdiction.
Sell everything now and take a 28% hit?
20% hit, but yes, also an option. 28% is the rate for property. Which is why 20% -> 40% is such a bitter pill to swallow. 20 to 25%, maybe, but it's simply not in my economic interest to remain in the UK with CGT taxed under income tax rules.
As Francis says downthread, capital flight will be quick and fast if it happens. I have friends in the same wealth bracket - entrepreneurs looking to sell their first business, crypto bros, people who got lucky and bought NVDA - who have already done, or are looking to do something similar.
Dubai is popular with some of my friends, but I'm not a "Dubai person" tbh.
You will also have a problem regarding residency given that you will have already been in the Uk 90 days this tax year.
Get some proper advice not some people online
Yes @kyf_100 if we’re talking well into the six figures in liabilities, take some serious professional advice.
5 solid pages of stiff, centrist, earnest PB dad-waffle, entirely devoid of wit, insight, or notable intelligence. Not a single decent joke or sparkling observation, and introduced by one of the dullest headers in recent PB history
*returns to Isaac Babel’s Odessan stories*
Serious question, assuming Labour decide to wallop capital gains tax up to 40% or more, where best to spend the next 5 years?
Find a beach worth settling into for five years (Mauritius?) or try to do the digital nomad thing and move around every six months?
In property it will reinforce the move to small property companies rather than personal ownership.
Flipping from one to the other is expensive, though there are various allowances which may help.
If they are after more CGT, one option is to reform taxation of corporate property vehicles, and possibly trusts - maybe including historic trusts.
I can also (maybe) see something being done wrt to UK citizens abroad.
When Boris Johnson abandoned his US citizenship, he reportedly received tax bill of £50k - CGT on a main residence.
But it may be the new Govt will need time to work through all the wrinkles.
In the meantime, make sure your investment is in the ISA before the election.
The fact I need to move if CGT rises to income tax bands (40%+) might be indicative of a bigger problem for me personally. We're talking seven figures - a bit too big to comfortably fit in an ISA.
Ultimately, I'm a classic example of homo economicus - I make the decisions that maximise my own personal financial gain.
I have friends who have already moved to Dubai in anticipation of it. Dubai isn't my scene, plus the cost of living there quickly eats up a lot of the benefits of being in a lower tax jurisdiction.
Cost of living in Dubai can be high. I have a 1,500sqft 2.5 bed apartment that costs £2k a month in rent. Houses, even if you own them, come with hideous utility bills and are in gated communities with service charges. If you have seven figures you can get something pretty decent though. PM me if you want to discuss.
How much is electricity per kw/h and water per megalitre there?
Okay, Dubai utility bill. Various standing charges and extras, but bottom line, per month:
Apartment, 1,500sqft. £2k/month Electricity, 757kW, £48.50 (6.4p/kW) Water, 2,420gal, £21.50 (.09p/gal) VAT 5% on above £3.50 Sewerage £2.50 Municipality Fee £93 (based on rentable value) TOTAL £169.00.
Wow. Rent excluded, thats £30 a month less than I pay in council tax (Band C).
Indeed, but remember that you have no entitlement to schools or social care, which is what most of your council tax pays for in the UK. Healthcare is mostly private too, my employer pays around £250 a month for me.
No personal income tax or capital gains tax though, VAT is 5% and Corporation Tax 7%.
The number of children attending private schools in England has risen, new figures show, despite claims that families are being priced out by Labour’s plan to add VAT to school fees.
The Independent Schools Council (ISC) said last month that pupil numbers had fallen – a sign, they said, that schools were already starting to see “the impact of VAT looming on the horizon”.
But official Department for Education (DfE) data published last week shows that as of this January, the number of pupils in independent schools in England was 593,486, up from 591,954 the year before and an increase of 24,150 on 2020/21.
The ISC has also blamed two recent private school closures on Labour’s policy. However, the official school census data shows that 12 new independent schools opened in the last year, with the total rising from 2,409 to 2,421.
Considering that the VAT policy was, IIRC, announced last year, and that a Labour victory could've been reasonably foreseen well before that, it's possible that the looming threat isn't causing half as much havoc as the independent sector has claimed. Fancy that.
5 solid pages of stiff, centrist, earnest PB dad-waffle, entirely devoid of wit, insight, or notable intelligence. Not a single decent joke or sparkling observation, and introduced by one of the dullest headers in recent PB history
The other issue with attacking Farage in the lazy way is everybody has seen him for donkeys years and the media constantly say this. At this stage, you either think he is a racist scumbag, a grifter, a bit of both, overly smeared by the media, or actual top bloke, and I don't think another headline changes that.
Its not like Corbyn attacks where people didn't really know who he was and even then it took several years for his dodgy alliances and fellow travellers to cut through.
What connects Farage and Corbyn, is there is genuine discontent with the status quo and the political settlement that the public feel they are getting, and that the mainstream are out of touch with a lot of people's views. Net zero, women having a penis etc, is a world away from that BBC report in Middlesbrough, where 94% of crimes go unsolved.
The issue is that the problems are difficult and complex to solve and neither Farage or Corbyn have serious workable ideas to address this.
5 solid pages of stiff, centrist, earnest PB dad-waffle, entirely devoid of wit, insight, or notable intelligence. Not a single decent joke or sparkling observation, and introduced by one of the dullest headers in recent PB history
*returns to Isaac Babel’s Odessan stories*
Serious question, assuming Labour decide to wallop capital gains tax up to 40% or more, where best to spend the next 5 years?
Find a beach worth settling into for five years (Mauritius?) or try to do the digital nomad thing and move around every six months?
In property it will reinforce the move to small property companies rather than personal ownership.
Flipping from one to the other is expensive, though there are various allowances which may help.
If they are after more CGT, one option is to reform taxation of corporate property vehicles, and possibly trusts - maybe including historic trusts.
I can also (maybe) see something being done wrt to UK citizens abroad.
When Boris Johnson abandoned his US citizenship, he reportedly received tax bill of £50k - CGT on a main residence.
But it may be the new Govt will need time to work through all the wrinkles.
In the meantime, make sure your investment is in the ISA before the election.
The fact I need to move if CGT rises to income tax bands (40%+) might be indicative of a bigger problem for me personally. We're talking seven figures - a bit too big to comfortably fit in an ISA.
Ultimately, I'm a classic example of homo economicus - I make the decisions that maximise my own personal financial gain.
I have friends who have already moved to Dubai in anticipation of it. Dubai isn't my scene, plus the cost of living there quickly eats up a lot of the benefits of being in a lower tax jurisdiction.
Sell everything now and take a 28% hit?
20% hit, but yes, also an option. 28% is the rate for property. Which is why 20% -> 40% is such a bitter pill to swallow. 20 to 25%, maybe, but it's simply not in my economic interest to remain in the UK with CGT taxed under income tax rules.
As Francis says downthread, capital flight will be quick and fast if it happens. I have friends in the same wealth bracket - entrepreneurs looking to sell their first business, crypto bros, people who got lucky and bought NVDA - who have already done, or are looking to do something similar.
Dubai is popular with some of my friends, but I'm not a "Dubai person" tbh.
You will also have a problem regarding residency given that you will have already been in the Uk 90 days this tax year.
Get some proper advice not some people online
Yes @kyf_100 if we’re talking well into the six figures in liabilities, take some serious professional advice.
Oh, I'm quite aware of tax liabilities and legislation. As one would hope I am, given my situation.
To ff's point down thread, it's simply the laffer curve in action. 20% is tolerable, 40% results in it being worth my while to take a 5 year holiday.
My original question was for Leon from a travel perspective, which is, assuming I decide to spend the next 5 years out of the UK, where would be interesting places to do it.
“Absolutely insane projections for France's elections, looks like Macron's party will get *absolutely decimated*. ft.com/content/077a3f…
Here are the numbers: - Far-right bloc (Le Pen's RN and Zemmour's reconquête): in the lead in 362 seats - Left-bloc ("Popular Front"): in the lead in 211 seats - Macron's party: in the lead in 3 seats. You read that right: 3 seats!!! And to top it off, none of these 3 seats are even in France, all of them are seats for French people abroad 😅 - Les Républicains (centre-right): in the lead in 1 seat
It's an election in 2 rounds. The projections for the 2nd round are that left and far-right would battle it out in in 536 seats; Macron’s alliance would make the run-off in only 41 (!), and LR in just three.
In short these elections look like they'll essentially destroy "Macronism" as a political force in France. Either that's somehow 9D chess that no-one understands or Macron's dissolution of the French parliament is one of the stupidest moves ever by a French president.”
Interesting article and broadly speaking I agree. I have been genuinely asking Tory voters what positive reasons there are to vote Tory for the last few weeks. ...
Rory Stewart said he would vote Tory if his Tory candidate was of the right sort.
Given that realistically Labour is going to win a majority, and given the prospect of the loony right taking over the Tory party, I wondered whether that might be the right thing to do.
But more than halfway through the campaign, the "About" section of my Tory candidate's website just says "Biography coming soon..."
I live in a constituency that according to the [polls should be a Tory/Lib Dem marginal, but I have no idea where the Tory candidate places himself.
Perhaps if he came out strongly as a "one nation" Tory it really might be worth supporting him. There has been no Tory literature so far. As it is, I don't know, so I think I had better vote Lib Dem.
I feel similar. I also have a realistic Tory/LD choice and it is actually pretty easy for me. Made more simple by the failure of the current Tory MP to deliver over the last few years.
But personally if the election destroys the Tory party and the right splinters off and joins Farage and the one nation Tories leave and join with the Lib Dem’s I will be fine with that outcome. The ‘broad church’ approach to political parties has proved to be pretty divisive. The extremes lie in wait for their host party to get into power and then cause disruption from the sides. Personally I think this is a moment where we could get real change, through a fundamental adjustment in British politics. If that results in more smaller parties and a more representative way of electing MPs I think that would build a better U.K. The current system has failed.
If the result is a far-right splinter party and a reasonable centre-right party, that will be OK.
But obviously it won't be good if the Tories maintain their position as the main party of the right, but are taken over (even more) by the loony right. Because in that case they may benefit from the usual swing of the pendulum in the two-party system.
As some-one who experienced the Liberal/SDP merger in the 1980s. If you try and merge two parties into one, you end up with three!
A pretty bad example, considering the result was the Lib Dems and two tiny splinter groups too ridiculous to mention!
Police try to stop an escaped cow by ramming it with their car in Feltham, West London
They ought to be charged with animal cruelty.
An escaped bovine loose in an urban area is no laughing matter. It's a huge animal that could very easily kill one or more innocent passers by whilst running around in a panic. I'm sure the exact circumstances will soon become apparent but, if they tried to bring it down with their car for the sake of public safety (because the alternative means of shooting it weren't immediately to hand) then we oughtn't necessarily to be surprised.
Since I seem to be preoccupied with the Yellows today, I may as well mention that Sporting have tweaked the spread on their seat numbers up to 53-57. I wouldn't buy or sell at that level, but I do think it is inconsistent with the Betfair market on Most Seats Without Labour, where the LDs are available at 4.5 (7/2 in old money.)
That looks like a back to me, but I may be talking my own book a bit.
Police try to stop an escaped cow by ramming it with their car in Feltham, West London
They ought to be charged with animal cruelty.
An escaped bovine loose in an urban area is no laughing matter. It's a huge animal that could very easily kill one or more innocent passers by whilst running around in a panic. I'm sure the exact circumstances will soon become apparent but, if they tried to bring it down with their car for the sake of public safety (because the alternative means of shooting it weren't immediately to hand) then we oughtn't necessarily to be surprised.
Looks like it happened near/after closing time on a Friday night, too.
Police try to stop an escaped cow by ramming it with their car in Feltham, West London
They ought to be charged with animal cruelty.
An escaped bovine loose in an urban area is no laughing matter. It's a huge animal that could very easily kill one or more innocent passers by whilst running around in a panic. I'm sure the exact circumstances will soon become apparent but, if they tried to bring it down with their car for the sake of public safety (because the alternative means of shooting it weren't immediately to hand) then we oughtn't necessarily to be surprised.
Looks like it happened near/after closing time on a Friday night, too.
“Absolutely insane projections for France's elections, looks like Macron's party will get *absolutely decimated*. ft.com/content/077a3f…
Here are the numbers: - Far-right bloc (Le Pen's RN and Zemmour's reconquête): in the lead in 362 seats - Left-bloc ("Popular Front"): in the lead in 211 seats - Macron's party: in the lead in 3 seats. You read that right: 3 seats!!! And to top it off, none of these 3 seats are even in France, all of them are seats for French people abroad 😅 - Les Républicains (centre-right): in the lead in 1 seat
It's an election in 2 rounds. The projections for the 2nd round are that left and far-right would battle it out in in 536 seats; Macron’s alliance would make the run-off in only 41 (!), and LR in just three.
In short these elections look like they'll essentially destroy "Macronism" as a political force in France. Either that's somehow 9D chess that no-one understands or Macron's dissolution of the French parliament is one of the stupidest moves ever by a French president.”
I know people don't really pay much attention to politics on the continent at the best of times, but it's got to have an impact on the mood here if Macron's party is virtually wiped out in the first round a week before we vote.
If your government is all about growth, growth, growth, whacking up CGT will have a negative impact on that.
Is there a better way to achieve massive capital flight, than taxing capital gains as income?
Nothing against @kyf_100 personally but Rachel Reeves job is to extract as much revenue out of them as possible. Demand too much and they flee. Keep the rates low and you're just collecting less tax. So it's a balance.
The balance is likely to be higher if you can offer an attractive lifestyle, good public services etc.
Besides which, it's just a part of everyday life that a certain proportion of people with money will threaten to do a flounce if the Government dares to put up taxes. At some point bluffs have to be called, or else the state will end up being unable to afford to do very much. As I said earlier, the country is bursting at the seams with the sick, disabled and elderly. Means have to be found to pay to look after them all.
“Absolutely insane projections for France's elections, looks like Macron's party will get *absolutely decimated*. ft.com/content/077a3f…
Here are the numbers: - Far-right bloc (Le Pen's RN and Zemmour's reconquête): in the lead in 362 seats - Left-bloc ("Popular Front"): in the lead in 211 seats - Macron's party: in the lead in 3 seats. You read that right: 3 seats!!! And to top it off, none of these 3 seats are even in France, all of them are seats for French people abroad 😅 - Les Républicains (centre-right): in the lead in 1 seat
It's an election in 2 rounds. The projections for the 2nd round are that left and far-right would battle it out in in 536 seats; Macron’s alliance would make the run-off in only 41 (!), and LR in just three.
In short these elections look like they'll essentially destroy "Macronism" as a political force in France. Either that's somehow 9D chess that no-one understands or Macron's dissolution of the French parliament is one of the stupidest moves ever by a French president.”
Macron's gamble depends on his party retaining its 25% vote share, which gets it lots of places in the second round. Then, he could rely on picking up tactical voting from right and left, to keep tout he other side.
At 18%, his candidates are going to make few second round places, due to the 12.5% of the electorate threshold (which probably means a 20% share of those voting). All that he's done is recreate two strong electoral blocs on right and left, and to squeeze the centre.
The number of children attending private schools in England has risen, new figures show, despite claims that families are being priced out by Labour’s plan to add VAT to school fees.
The Independent Schools Council (ISC) said last month that pupil numbers had fallen – a sign, they said, that schools were already starting to see “the impact of VAT looming on the horizon”.
But official Department for Education (DfE) data published last week shows that as of this January, the number of pupils in independent schools in England was 593,486, up from 591,954 the year before and an increase of 24,150 on 2020/21.
The ISC has also blamed two recent private school closures on Labour’s policy. However, the official school census data shows that 12 new independent schools opened in the last year, with the total rising from 2,409 to 2,421.
Considering that the VAT policy was, IIRC, announced last year, and that a Labour victory could've been reasonably foreseen well before that, it's possible that the looming threat isn't causing half as much havoc as the independent sector has claimed. Fancy that.
It would be interesting to know what proportion are overseas students. Is this just a continuation of China-ifaction of the UK private school system and that we will still see more UK kids being pushed from private to state sector.
I know somebody who runs a business facilizing Chinese kids to come to UK private schools. It is very lucrative operation.
“Absolutely insane projections for France's elections, looks like Macron's party will get *absolutely decimated*. ft.com/content/077a3f…
Here are the numbers: - Far-right bloc (Le Pen's RN and Zemmour's reconquête): in the lead in 362 seats - Left-bloc ("Popular Front"): in the lead in 211 seats - Macron's party: in the lead in 3 seats. You read that right: 3 seats!!! And to top it off, none of these 3 seats are even in France, all of them are seats for French people abroad 😅 - Les Républicains (centre-right): in the lead in 1 seat
It's an election in 2 rounds. The projections for the 2nd round are that left and far-right would battle it out in in 536 seats; Macron’s alliance would make the run-off in only 41 (!), and LR in just three.
In short these elections look like they'll essentially destroy "Macronism" as a political force in France. Either that's somehow 9D chess that no-one understands or Macron's dissolution of the French parliament is one of the stupidest moves ever by a French president.”
I know people don't really pay much attention to politics on the continent at the best of times, but it's got to have an impact on the mood here if Macron's party is virtually wiped out in the first round a week before we vote.
The French voting system is absolutely brutal towards an unpopular party. It's like ours, but with knobs on.
5 solid pages of stiff, centrist, earnest PB dad-waffle, entirely devoid of wit, insight, or notable intelligence. Not a single decent joke or sparkling observation, and introduced by one of the dullest headers in recent PB history
*returns to Isaac Babel’s Odessan stories*
Serious question, assuming Labour decide to wallop capital gains tax up to 40% or more, where best to spend the next 5 years?
Find a beach worth settling into for five years (Mauritius?) or try to do the digital nomad thing and move around every six months?
In property it will reinforce the move to small property companies rather than personal ownership.
Flipping from one to the other is expensive, though there are various allowances which may help.
If they are after more CGT, one option is to reform taxation of corporate property vehicles, and possibly trusts - maybe including historic trusts.
I can also (maybe) see something being done wrt to UK citizens abroad.
When Boris Johnson abandoned his US citizenship, he reportedly received tax bill of £50k - CGT on a main residence.
But it may be the new Govt will need time to work through all the wrinkles.
In the meantime, make sure your investment is in the ISA before the election.
The fact I need to move if CGT rises to income tax bands (40%+) might be indicative of a bigger problem for me personally. We're talking seven figures - a bit too big to comfortably fit in an ISA.
Ultimately, I'm a classic example of homo economicus - I make the decisions that maximise my own personal financial gain.
I have friends who have already moved to Dubai in anticipation of it. Dubai isn't my scene, plus the cost of living there quickly eats up a lot of the benefits of being in a lower tax jurisdiction.
Sell everything now and take a 28% hit?
20% hit, but yes, also an option. 28% is the rate for property. Which is why 20% -> 40% is such a bitter pill to swallow. 20 to 25%, maybe, but it's simply not in my economic interest to remain in the UK with CGT taxed under income tax rules.
As Francis says downthread, capital flight will be quick and fast if it happens. I have friends in the same wealth bracket - entrepreneurs looking to sell their first business, crypto bros, people who got lucky and bought NVDA - who have already done, or are looking to do something similar.
Dubai is popular with some of my friends, but I'm not a "Dubai person" tbh.
You will also have a problem regarding residency given that you will have already been in the Uk 90 days this tax year.
Get some proper advice not some people online
Yes @kyf_100 if we’re talking well into the six figures in liabilities, take some serious professional advice.
Oh, I'm quite aware of tax liabilities and legislation. As one would hope I am, given my situation.
To ff's point down thread, it's simply the laffer curve in action. 20% is tolerable, 40% results in it being worth my while to take a 5 year holiday.
My original question was for Leon from a travel perspective, which is, assuming I decide to spend the next 5 years out of the UK, where would be interesting places to do it.
Asia for most of the winter. November-April. Bangkok, Phnom Penh, islands. Consider residency in Thailand, make it your base. That’s six months sorted
Spread the rest between interesting places in Asia - Georgia, India, Nepal, Turkey, China, all cheap
A few visits to nice bits of Europe plus your 90 days in the UK.
“Absolutely insane projections for France's elections, looks like Macron's party will get *absolutely decimated*. ft.com/content/077a3f…
Here are the numbers: - Far-right bloc (Le Pen's RN and Zemmour's reconquête): in the lead in 362 seats - Left-bloc ("Popular Front"): in the lead in 211 seats - Macron's party: in the lead in 3 seats. You read that right: 3 seats!!! And to top it off, none of these 3 seats are even in France, all of them are seats for French people abroad 😅 - Les Républicains (centre-right): in the lead in 1 seat
It's an election in 2 rounds. The projections for the 2nd round are that left and far-right would battle it out in in 536 seats; Macron’s alliance would make the run-off in only 41 (!), and LR in just three.
In short these elections look like they'll essentially destroy "Macronism" as a political force in France. Either that's somehow 9D chess that no-one understands or Macron's dissolution of the French parliament is one of the stupidest moves ever by a French president.”
“Absolutely insane projections for France's elections, looks like Macron's party will get *absolutely decimated*. ft.com/content/077a3f…
Here are the numbers: - Far-right bloc (Le Pen's RN and Zemmour's reconquête): in the lead in 362 seats - Left-bloc ("Popular Front"): in the lead in 211 seats - Macron's party: in the lead in 3 seats. You read that right: 3 seats!!! And to top it off, none of these 3 seats are even in France, all of them are seats for French people abroad 😅 - Les Républicains (centre-right): in the lead in 1 seat
It's an election in 2 rounds. The projections for the 2nd round are that left and far-right would battle it out in in 536 seats; Macron’s alliance would make the run-off in only 41 (!), and LR in just three.
In short these elections look like they'll essentially destroy "Macronism" as a political force in France. Either that's somehow 9D chess that no-one understands or Macron's dissolution of the French parliament is one of the stupidest moves ever by a French president.”
Macron's gamble depends on his party retaining its 25% vote share, which gets it lots of places in the second round. Then, he could rely on picking up tactical voting from right and left, to keep tout he other side.
At 18%, his candidates are going to make few second round places, due to the 12.5% of the electorate threshold (which probably means a 20% share of those voting). All that he's done is recreate two strong electoral blocs on right and left, and to squeeze the centre.
His government was in a minority and all the other parties were about to throw it out anyway, so he has not lost anything as such.
Electoral Calculus has got the seat down as a Labour gain, but not by much. Isn't an LD gain more likely in that neck of the woods? Anyone know which is likely to present the greater challenge?
I'd have thought her personal reputation was such that she would lose against the office cat if it stood but if neither Labour nor the LDs step strategically aside her chances of returning to the House to reinvigorate the Conservative Party must be quite good.
Lib Dems will be working North Norfolk, or the Cambridgeshire seats.
Traditionally (well, last century) rural Norfolk had a big Labour vote, due to the strength of the Agricultural Workers Union in the County.
You're looking a fair bit back in the 20th century now in terms of the very large, unionised Norfolk farm labourer vote, which technological change essentially did for over a few decades.
SW Norfolk was one of a tiny handful of Tory gains against the national swing in 1964 (and has never gone back) from Albert Hilton, who was indeed a farm labourer and trades unionist. Bert Hazell, with a similar background, hung on in North Norfolk until 1970.
5 solid pages of stiff, centrist, earnest PB dad-waffle, entirely devoid of wit, insight, or notable intelligence. Not a single decent joke or sparkling observation, and introduced by one of the dullest headers in recent PB history
*returns to Isaac Babel’s Odessan stories*
Serious question, assuming Labour decide to wallop capital gains tax up to 40% or more, where best to spend the next 5 years?
Find a beach worth settling into for five years (Mauritius?) or try to do the digital nomad thing and move around every six months?
In property it will reinforce the move to small property companies rather than personal ownership.
Flipping from one to the other is expensive, though there are various allowances which may help.
If they are after more CGT, one option is to reform taxation of corporate property vehicles, and possibly trusts - maybe including historic trusts.
I can also (maybe) see something being done wrt to UK citizens abroad.
When Boris Johnson abandoned his US citizenship, he reportedly received tax bill of £50k - CGT on a main residence.
But it may be the new Govt will need time to work through all the wrinkles.
In the meantime, make sure your investment is in the ISA before the election.
The fact I need to move if CGT rises to income tax bands (40%+) might be indicative of a bigger problem for me personally. We're talking seven figures - a bit too big to comfortably fit in an ISA.
Ultimately, I'm a classic example of homo economicus - I make the decisions that maximise my own personal financial gain.
I have friends who have already moved to Dubai in anticipation of it. Dubai isn't my scene, plus the cost of living there quickly eats up a lot of the benefits of being in a lower tax jurisdiction.
Cost of living in Dubai can be high. I have a 1,500sqft 2.5 bed apartment that costs £2k a month in rent. Houses, even if you own them, come with hideous utility bills and are in gated communities with service charges. If you have seven figures you can get something pretty decent though. PM me if you want to discuss.
How much is electricity per kw/h and water per megalitre there?
Okay, Dubai utility bill. Various standing charges and extras, but bottom line, per month:
Apartment, 1,500sqft. £2k/month Electricity, 757kW, £48.50 (6.4p/kW) Water, 2,420gal, £21.50 (.09p/gal) VAT 5% on above £3.50 Sewerage £2.50 Municipality Fee £93 (based on rentable value) TOTAL £169.00.
Police try to stop an escaped cow by ramming it with their car in Feltham, West London
They ought to be charged with animal cruelty.
An escaped bovine loose in an urban area is no laughing matter. It's a huge animal that could very easily kill one or more innocent passers by whilst running around in a panic. I'm sure the exact circumstances will soon become apparent but, if they tried to bring it down with their car for the sake of public safety (because the alternative means of shooting it weren't immediately to hand) then we oughtn't necessarily to be surprised.
Cows are a piece of piss to deal with. Even a herd who are a bit gingered up will respond to a bit of firm handling, as long as you don't run and fall over. I get the cow had to be captured and was scared and skittish, but those coppers mishandled that badly. Chasing it with a car was moronic when a couple of feds with their batons corralling it would have been far easier.
“Absolutely insane projections for France's elections, looks like Macron's party will get *absolutely decimated*. ft.com/content/077a3f…
Here are the numbers: - Far-right bloc (Le Pen's RN and Zemmour's reconquête): in the lead in 362 seats - Left-bloc ("Popular Front"): in the lead in 211 seats - Macron's party: in the lead in 3 seats. You read that right: 3 seats!!! And to top it off, none of these 3 seats are even in France, all of them are seats for French people abroad 😅 - Les Républicains (centre-right): in the lead in 1 seat
It's an election in 2 rounds. The projections for the 2nd round are that left and far-right would battle it out in in 536 seats; Macron’s alliance would make the run-off in only 41 (!), and LR in just three.
In short these elections look like they'll essentially destroy "Macronism" as a political force in France. Either that's somehow 9D chess that no-one understands or Macron's dissolution of the French parliament is one of the stupidest moves ever by a French president.”
Macron's gamble depends on his party retaining its 25% vote share, which gets it lots of places in the second round. Then, he could rely on picking up tactical voting from right and left, to keep tout he other side.
At 18%, his candidates are going to make few second round places, due to the 12.5% of the electorate threshold (which probably means a 20% share of those voting). All that he's done is recreate two strong electoral blocs on right and left, and to squeeze the centre.
His government was in a minority and all the other parties were about to throw it out anyway, so he has not lost anything as such.
He'll have lost his legacy. His political project will die with his own career and there will be nobody to pass on the torch of Macronism to.
I know what the big one that I am pretty sure is taxable is being an affiliate. Back in the day that was huge and you could be paid either a fixed fee pre sign-up or as a percentage of the amount bet (or lost). When the poker boom came about, that was absolutely huge money maker for some, as they got a % of all rake paid by people they signed up and getting the guys who were going for rake races / Pokerstars Supernova Elite etc, could make you $10k's per year per player.
I believe even today that is how a lot of the racing website / papers make a big chunk of their money.
Interesting article and broadly speaking I agree. I have been genuinely asking Tory voters what positive reasons there are to vote Tory for the last few weeks. ...
Rory Stewart said he would vote Tory if his Tory candidate was of the right sort.
Given that realistically Labour is going to win a majority, and given the prospect of the loony right taking over the Tory party, I wondered whether that might be the right thing to do.
But more than halfway through the campaign, the "About" section of my Tory candidate's website just says "Biography coming soon..."
I live in a constituency that according to the [polls should be a Tory/Lib Dem marginal, but I have no idea where the Tory candidate places himself.
Perhaps if he came out strongly as a "one nation" Tory it really might be worth supporting him. There has been no Tory literature so far. As it is, I don't know, so I think I had better vote Lib Dem.
I feel similar. I also have a realistic Tory/LD choice and it is actually pretty easy for me. Made more simple by the failure of the current Tory MP to deliver over the last few years.
But personally if the election destroys the Tory party and the right splinters off and joins Farage and the one nation Tories leave and join with the Lib Dem’s I will be fine with that outcome. The ‘broad church’ approach to political parties has proved to be pretty divisive. The extremes lie in wait for their host party to get into power and then cause disruption from the sides. Personally I think this is a moment where we could get real change, through a fundamental adjustment in British politics. If that results in more smaller parties and a more representative way of electing MPs I think that would build a better U.K. The current system has failed.
You're unlikely to get an ecosystem of smaller parties without electoral reform. As per the header, the best way to avoid the possibility of the Conservatives (who appear to be terminally infected with Trumpian lunacy) roaring back as a very menacing populist-fantasist political force is their obliteration.
The replacement of the Tories with the Liberal Democrats would be for the best in the short term. If the sane centre right then regains a foothold later (either through the yellows moving rightwards according to the whims of their new constituents, or a novel party springing up on their right flank,) then fine.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
This is why one should bet in high-street betting shops. Our authoritarian pensionerism 2020s will do its level best to eliminate gambling and we should bet prolifically in betting shops to send a message to these nanny-state botherers that gambling is great fun and none of their bloody business.
Good luck getting big stakes cash bets accepted in a bookies without id being tracked.
The largest cash bet I ever placed in the bookies was £500, followed by £250 a few weeks later, on Brexit. The odds were 5/2 and 2/1, although I cannot remember which way around. I won. At no point was I asked for ID. What is the threshold at which they ask for ID?
It will vary a lot. Here is one egregious example.
"Having had his account closed by William Hill, Edwards placed a £52 football accumulator using his debit card in one of the operator’s shops. However, when he went to collect his £74 winnings, he claims he was told he was not allowed to enter the building as he had not provided the information asked of him when affordability checks were imposed online."
I'm quite upset by that. I say we are becoming more authoritarian and nanny-state due to the querulousness of the majority pensioner vote, then something llike this comes along and makes you realise that yes, it is happening, and it's not a joke. If you aren't allowed to gamble in untraceable cash it's not a free country.
“Absolutely insane projections for France's elections, looks like Macron's party will get *absolutely decimated*. ft.com/content/077a3f…
Here are the numbers: - Far-right bloc (Le Pen's RN and Zemmour's reconquête): in the lead in 362 seats - Left-bloc ("Popular Front"): in the lead in 211 seats - Macron's party: in the lead in 3 seats. You read that right: 3 seats!!! And to top it off, none of these 3 seats are even in France, all of them are seats for French people abroad 😅 - Les Républicains (centre-right): in the lead in 1 seat
It's an election in 2 rounds. The projections for the 2nd round are that left and far-right would battle it out in in 536 seats; Macron’s alliance would make the run-off in only 41 (!), and LR in just three.
In short these elections look like they'll essentially destroy "Macronism" as a political force in France. Either that's somehow 9D chess that no-one understands or Macron's dissolution of the French parliament is one of the stupidest moves ever by a French president.”
Macron's gamble depends on his party retaining its 25% vote share, which gets it lots of places in the second round. Then, he could rely on picking up tactical voting from right and left, to keep tout he other side.
At 18%, his candidates are going to make few second round places, due to the 12.5% of the electorate threshold (which probably means a 20% share of those voting). All that he's done is recreate two strong electoral blocs on right and left, and to squeeze the centre.
His government was in a minority and all the other parties were about to throw it out anyway, so he has not lost anything as such.
He'll have lost his legacy. His political project will die with his own career and there will be nobody to pass on the torch of Macronism to.
Is France ungovernable? Macron's reforms were hardly crazy, but just tweaking retirement age or labour laws a bit, to try and improve the situation a bit, was too much for the French public and years and years of back and forth with little progress on much.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
I thought the Gambling Commission regulated licence holders (i.e. bookies) rather than punters?
They also do the equivalent of monitoring insider trading for betting. Its a grey area, so being part of NU10K or whatever he will face an investigation, some joshing from his colleagues and nothing else.
Would he not have to be in a position to actually affect the outcome to be in real trouble, rather than simply aware of something that may or may not be announced in the future?
This situation sounds like a groom in a stable knowing who’s the lame horse and who’s the strong horse before a race.
(1)A person commits an offence if he— (a)cheats at gambling
Examples are given but they are not defined as comprehensive, so it comes down to an interpretation of cheating.
Phil Iveys edge sorting is the biggest test case so far where he was found to be a cheat in civil court and it did create a lower bar for what is considered cheating:
"This could be one of the most significant judgments in criminal law for many years, if as the Supreme Court suggest, a new test for dishonesty is applied. Since Ghosh juries have been told that defendants are only guilty if the dishonest conduct involved in the offence was dishonest by the standards of ordinary reasonable and honest people and also that they must have realised that ordinary honest people would regard their behaviour as dishonest. If this second limb of the test is to disappear, it might make convictions for dishonesty related offences easier to obtain, particularly in the more complex cases, such as those involving financial fraud.”
Fascinating case and well worth a read if your are interested in betting (or cheating!)
I think the crucial point was that the gambler and his assistant contrived the situation so that they had an edge, rather than the house, in what was otherwise a game of chance. They were not merely passively observing the cards (which would be the case with card-counting, another technique which casinos have to watch out for but which, I believe, is lawful.)
Reluctantly, I have to come to the conclusions their Lordships were right.
Contrived vs requested. Caveat emptor imo, Ivey shouldn't have a duty of care to protect a casino from bad decisions.
Interesting, None, but not sure I agree. He got the Casino to handle the cards by subterfuge.
Smart, but cheating, I think.
I would be happy to accept that on the condition that casinos are equally guilty of cheating if they don't explain each advantage they have over the clients to such potential clients and ask them are you really sure you want to carry on knowing this at each stage.
Ah, yes, but that's a different matter.
Likewise Bookmakers should be open and honest about not desiring the custom of successful punters, but as we both know, pigs will indeed fly first.
IMHO it should be a condition of a gambling licence that if a bookie offers a bet or an offer they should offer it to all punters equally. Those who are successful and unsuccessful.
Being able to make increasingly predatory "offers" to tempt in problem gamblers by blacklisting smart punters who take advantage shouldn't be allowed for a licensed firm.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
This is why one should bet in high-street betting shops. Our authoritarian pensionerism 2020s will do its level best to eliminate gambling and we should bet prolifically in betting shops to send a message to these nanny-state botherers that gambling is great fun and none of their bloody business.
I'm afraid that a Starmer government will try to put income tax on betting winnings. Just the sort of thing they'd do. Would tick a lot of boxes for them at the same time.
So because there is so little to attack that is actually in the Labour manifesto, you make up things to attack which are not. Understood.
That’s already the case if you bet as your trade - but the consequence of that is that loses are also allowed to be deducted as an allowed expense
Hence it’s never going to happen because it’s better to let amateurs keep their winnings rather than allowing all loses to be deducted against tax
Erhh that's not true. I was a professional gambler for nearly 10 years and didn't pay a penny in tax on my gambling winnings. There was a test case in law which solidified this.
Back in the day there was all that do you want to pay the tax on the bet or the winnings. If I remember correctly Brown abolished that and the tax went on the operator. The operators then all registered in tax havens and Osborne implemented a new law that said they had to pay tax on revenue from UK residents regardless of where the bookie was located.
Why don't we implement this for all companies selling into the UK?
Because, in its effect at least, that's little different from putting tariffs on imports. So consumer price inflation.
If the goal is import substitution, there's a case for that, but UK manufacturing being what it is ...
“Absolutely insane projections for France's elections, looks like Macron's party will get *absolutely decimated*. ft.com/content/077a3f…
Here are the numbers: - Far-right bloc (Le Pen's RN and Zemmour's reconquête): in the lead in 362 seats - Left-bloc ("Popular Front"): in the lead in 211 seats - Macron's party: in the lead in 3 seats. You read that right: 3 seats!!! And to top it off, none of these 3 seats are even in France, all of them are seats for French people abroad 😅 - Les Républicains (centre-right): in the lead in 1 seat
It's an election in 2 rounds. The projections for the 2nd round are that left and far-right would battle it out in in 536 seats; Macron’s alliance would make the run-off in only 41 (!), and LR in just three.
In short these elections look like they'll essentially destroy "Macronism" as a political force in France. Either that's somehow 9D chess that no-one understands or Macron's dissolution of the French parliament is one of the stupidest moves ever by a French president.”
Electoral Calculus has got the seat down as a Labour gain, but not by much. Isn't an LD gain more likely in that neck of the woods? Anyone know which is likely to present the greater challenge?
I'd have thought her personal reputation was such that she would lose against the office cat if it stood but if neither Labour nor the LDs step strategically aside her chances of returning to the House to reinvigorate the Conservative Party must be quite good.
Lib Dems will be working North Norfolk, or the Cambridgeshire seats.
Traditionally (well, last century) rural Norfolk had a big Labour vote, due to the strength of the Agricultural Workers Union in the County.
You're looking a fair bit back in the 20th century now in terms of the very large, unionised Norfolk farm labourer vote, which technological change essentially did for over a few decades.
SW Norfolk was one of a tiny handful of Tory gains against the national swing in 1964 (and has never gone back) from Albert Hilton, who was indeed a farm labourer and trades unionist. Bert Hazell, with a similar background, hung on in North Norfolk until 1970.
Yes, agree. I’ve read somewhere and probably posted before, that until WWII a medieval peasant, time-travelled to a farm, could have managed most of the equipment. Nowadays, no chance. Agricultural work is very lonely nowadays, though. No lines of men scything though the hayfields, for example.
Police try to stop an escaped cow by ramming it with their car in Feltham, West London
They ought to be charged with animal cruelty.
An escaped bovine loose in an urban area is no laughing matter. It's a huge animal that could very easily kill one or more innocent passers by whilst running around in a panic. I'm sure the exact circumstances will soon become apparent but, if they tried to bring it down with their car for the sake of public safety (because the alternative means of shooting it weren't immediately to hand) then we oughtn't necessarily to be surprised.
Cows are a piece of piss to deal with. Even a herd who are a bit gingered up will respond to a bit of firm handling, as long as you don't run and fall over. I get the cow had to be captured and was scared and skittish, but those coppers mishandled that badly. Chasing it with a car was moronic when a couple of feds with their batons corralling it would have been far easier.
OTOH I doubt that farm animal husbandry forms a major part of the training of city police officers, so I doubt that 'get out of car and try to corral rampaging animal with a small stick' was an option that they would've viewed as sensible, from the POV of their own safety as well as everyone else's.
5 solid pages of stiff, centrist, earnest PB dad-waffle, entirely devoid of wit, insight, or notable intelligence. Not a single decent joke or sparkling observation, and introduced by one of the dullest headers in recent PB history
*returns to Isaac Babel’s Odessan stories*
Serious question, assuming Labour decide to wallop capital gains tax up to 40% or more, where best to spend the next 5 years?
Find a beach worth settling into for five years (Mauritius?) or try to do the digital nomad thing and move around every six months?
In property it will reinforce the move to small property companies rather than personal ownership.
Flipping from one to the other is expensive, though there are various allowances which may help.
If they are after more CGT, one option is to reform taxation of corporate property vehicles, and possibly trusts - maybe including historic trusts.
I can also (maybe) see something being done wrt to UK citizens abroad.
When Boris Johnson abandoned his US citizenship, he reportedly received tax bill of £50k - CGT on a main residence.
But it may be the new Govt will need time to work through all the wrinkles.
In the meantime, make sure your investment is in the ISA before the election.
The fact I need to move if CGT rises to income tax bands (40%+) might be indicative of a bigger problem for me personally. We're talking seven figures - a bit too big to comfortably fit in an ISA.
Ultimately, I'm a classic example of homo economicus - I make the decisions that maximise my own personal financial gain.
I have friends who have already moved to Dubai in anticipation of it. Dubai isn't my scene, plus the cost of living there quickly eats up a lot of the benefits of being in a lower tax jurisdiction.
Cost of living in Dubai can be high. I have a 1,500sqft 2.5 bed apartment that costs £2k a month in rent. Houses, even if you own them, come with hideous utility bills and are in gated communities with service charges. If you have seven figures you can get something pretty decent though. PM me if you want to discuss.
How much is electricity per kw/h and water per megalitre there?
Okay, Dubai utility bill. Various standing charges and extras, but bottom line, per month:
Apartment, 1,500sqft. £2k/month Electricity, 757kW, £48.50 (6.4p/kW) Water, 2,420gal, £21.50 (.09p/gal) VAT 5% on above £3.50 Sewerage £2.50 Municipality Fee £93 (based on rentable value) TOTAL £169.00.
Truss recent round of interviews didn't make her look very good. Even on the podcasts that aren't gotcha machines she sounded bonkers.
I don’t agree. And I don't really see you as a dispassionate commentor. The more 'bonkers' Truss is, the less bollock-kickingly devastatingly awful the decision to drop her and her programme in favour of the dismal specimen who replaced her looks. It's in the interests of every wet drip who was involved in or urged that decision, rather than owning their part in the destruction of the Tory party, to claim they had no choice because of how 'bonkers' Truss is. Humility is very out of fashion on PB.
Comments
Likewise Bookmakers should be open and honest about not desiring the custom of successful punters, but as we both know, pigs will indeed fly first.
It is possible to set up a ltd co to do the betting and it would pay tax on winnings.
Given all the action is placed in Asian markets and with "sharp" bookies, I would be surprised if the actual betting part is even UK registered.
Get some proper advice not some people online
Apartment, 1,500sqft. £2k/month
Electricity, 757kW, £48.50 (6.4p/kW)
Water, 2,420gal, £21.50 (.09p/gal)
VAT 5% on above £3.50
Sewerage £2.50
Municipality Fee £93 (based on rentable value)
TOTAL £169.00.
Thanks. It's food for thought. It's why I come here.
The balance is likely to be higher if you can offer an attractive lifestyle, good public services etc.
Lds
Liberals
Continuing SDP
Continuing Continuing SDP!
Lol
Nobody is asking Reform anything about policy and the bits we have seen don't seem realistic in current economic situation. Instead the lazy approach is to keep saying that a dog whistle and what do you think of Hitler.
Look at what is happening in France, Germany, Italy, simply screaming racist doesn't work. The Spiked and Speccy podcast (which is too often a bore of anti-wokeism stuff) were quite interesting this week talking about the political situation.
https://x.com/ub1ub2/status/1801939257054859521
Police try to stop an escaped cow by ramming it with their car in Feltham, West London
No personal income tax or capital gains tax though, VAT is 5% and Corporation Tax 7%.
The Independent Schools Council (ISC) said last month that pupil numbers had fallen – a sign, they said, that schools were already starting to see “the impact of VAT looming on the horizon”.
But official Department for Education (DfE) data published last week shows that as of this January, the number of pupils in independent schools in England was 593,486, up from 591,954 the year before and an increase of 24,150 on 2020/21.
The ISC has also blamed two recent private school closures on Labour’s policy. However, the official school census data shows that 12 new independent schools opened in the last year, with the total rising from 2,409 to 2,421.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/jun/15/number-of-private-school-pupils-rises-despite-claims-families-priced-out-by-labours-vat-plan
Considering that the VAT policy was, IIRC, announced last year, and that a Labour victory could've been reasonably foreseen well before that, it's possible that the looming threat isn't causing half as much havoc as the independent sector has claimed. Fancy that.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/arts-letters/articles/reading-babel-odessa-wartime
2. They were lucky it didn't go through the windscreen.
3. They may have been worried about injuries to people.
Its not like Corbyn attacks where people didn't really know who he was and even then it took several years for his dodgy alliances and fellow travellers to cut through.
What connects Farage and Corbyn, is there is genuine discontent with the status quo and the political settlement that the public feel they are getting, and that the mainstream are out of touch with a lot of people's views. Net zero, women having a penis etc, is a world away from that BBC report in Middlesbrough, where 94% of crimes go unsolved.
The issue is that the problems are difficult and complex to solve and neither Farage or Corbyn have serious workable ideas to address this.
To ff's point down thread, it's simply the laffer curve in action. 20% is tolerable, 40% results in it being worth my while to take a 5 year holiday.
My original question was for Leon from a travel perspective, which is, assuming I decide to spend the next 5 years out of the UK, where would be interesting places to do it.
ft.com/content/077a3f…
Here are the numbers:
- Far-right bloc (Le Pen's RN and Zemmour's reconquête): in the lead in 362 seats
- Left-bloc ("Popular Front"): in the lead in 211 seats
- Macron's party: in the lead in 3 seats. You read that right: 3 seats!!! And to top it off, none of these 3 seats are even in France, all of them are seats for French people abroad 😅
- Les Républicains (centre-right): in the lead in 1 seat
It's an election in 2 rounds. The projections for the 2nd round are that left and far-right would battle it out in in 536 seats; Macron’s alliance would make the run-off in only 41 (!), and LR in just three.
In short these elections look like they'll essentially destroy "Macronism" as a political force in France. Either that's somehow 9D chess that no-one understands or Macron's dissolution of the French parliament is one of the stupidest moves ever by a French president.”
https://x.com/rnaudbertrand/status/1801947916720103796?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
That looks like a back to me, but I may be talking my own book a bit.
Thoughts?
At 18%, his candidates are going to make few second round places, due to the 12.5% of the electorate threshold (which probably means a 20% share of those voting). All that he's done is recreate two strong electoral blocs on right and left, and to squeeze the centre.
I know somebody who runs a business facilizing Chinese kids to come to UK private schools. It is very lucrative operation.
Spread the rest between interesting places in Asia - Georgia, India, Nepal, Turkey, China, all cheap
A few visits to nice bits of Europe plus your 90 days in the UK.
11th of Mays are glorious days, OGH's birthday and also the day Dave became PM.
SW Norfolk was one of a tiny handful of Tory gains against the national swing in 1964 (and has never gone back) from Albert Hilton, who was indeed a farm labourer and trades unionist. Bert Hazell, with a similar background, hung on in North Norfolk until 1970.
This year though, it's not a good enough one for me.
I hope the Tories outpoll Reform, but if they do it will be without me.
I know what the big one that I am pretty sure is taxable is being an affiliate. Back in the day that was huge and you could be paid either a fixed fee pre sign-up or as a percentage of the amount bet (or lost). When the poker boom came about, that was absolutely huge money maker for some, as they got a % of all rake paid by people they signed up and getting the guys who were going for rake races / Pokerstars Supernova Elite etc, could make you $10k's per year per player.
I believe even today that is how a lot of the racing website / papers make a big chunk of their money.
The replacement of the Tories with the Liberal Democrats would be for the best in the short term. If the sane centre right then regains a foothold later (either through the yellows moving rightwards according to the whims of their new constituents, or a novel party springing up on their right flank,) then fine.
Being able to make increasingly predatory "offers" to tempt in problem gamblers by blacklisting smart punters who take advantage shouldn't be allowed for a licensed firm.
So consumer price inflation.
If the goal is import substitution, there's a case for that, but UK manufacturing being what it is ...
That's great news for Macron, he'll be delighted to only be losing 10% of seats.
The Tories would give anything to be decimated at this election.
Nobody.
Ok, maybe everybody saw it coming.
NEW THREAD
I’ve read somewhere and probably posted before, that until WWII a medieval peasant, time-travelled to a farm, could have managed most of the equipment. Nowadays, no chance.
Agricultural work is very lonely nowadays, though. No lines of men scything though the hayfields, for example.