@jamesdoyle thank you for engaging directly with posters. Your clarification helps (early in the morning for my brain!). I still disagree. I think the anti-reform element of the party is larger than alluded, especially at parliamentary level, and to destroy the party destroys them. I still believe that the media give Reform's rise too much credibility. Not enough people challenge Farage. Yes they are tapping in to a stream of opinion that the Conservatives must address, but the party is essentially a one man band, with limited infrastructure. Evidence of previous surges for outsider parties has suggested they fall back. The media love a narrative and Reform will do ok, but not, I suspect, as well as people think.
Here is the problem with Farage - he is closer to reality than people want to accept. The NHS as one example. He wants to replace it with a French-style system which so many of us suspect would just be an open door to American insurance companies.
But the heart of his argument - too much money being spent in the wrong places. And that is true, not a million miles away from what Daisy Cooper was saying on the same stage.
The secret of the Nigel's success is that he takes complex issues (like the NHS) and cuts straight to the core issue which he clips, simplifies and packages into a form people who don't really know how it works can digest.
I vehemently dislike his politics. But you have to respect the craft. He is a significant political operator. The way to defeat Faragism isn't to cling on to a voting system which is about to effectively disenfranchise 6m people. Its to engage the argument and actually provide solutions. The endless decline of our communities and the sense of powerlessness is why he is a thing. Lets go and fix that.
You can see the similarity with Cummings.
I suppose the question is does he propose dodgy solutions because he's a bit dim, because he's very dodgy or because of some combination thereof?
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
☝️ this. They can crash the economy, disrespect veterans and HM m, raise taxes to their highest level and fail to deliver on every single promise and Tory voters will still find a way to vote for them.
There is literally nothing Sunak can do to lose some Tories vote.
The challenge for punters and pundits is simple - are voters like BigG part of a shift back towards the conservatives? Or merely the rump who were voting for them regardless?
Again, the *Tory Party* believe the polls and the canvass returns which show they are sliding towards the abyss. We know this by their actions. So "we've decided to vote Tory" shock is likely not a shock. Already assumed and priced in.
@jamesdoyle thank you for engaging directly with posters. Your clarification helps (early in the morning for my brain!). I still disagree. I think the anti-reform element of the party is larger than alluded, especially at parliamentary level, and to destroy the party destroys them. I still believe that the media give Reform's rise too much credibility. Not enough people challenge Farage. Yes they are tapping in to a stream of opinion that the Conservatives must address, but the party is essentially a one man band, with limited infrastructure. Evidence of previous surges for outsider parties has suggested they fall back. The media love a narrative and Reform will do ok, but not, I suspect, as well as people think.
Here is the problem with Farage - he is closer to reality than people want to accept. The NHS as one example. He wants to replace it with a French-style system which so many of us suspect would just be an open door to American insurance companies.
But the heart of his argument - too much money being spent in the wrong places. And that is true, not a million miles away from what Daisy Cooper was saying on the same stage.
The secret of the Nigel's success is that he takes complex issues (like the NHS) and cuts straight to the core issue which he clips, simplifies and packages into a form people who don't really know how it works can digest.
I vehemently dislike his politics. But you have to respect the craft. He is a significant political operator. The way to defeat Faragism isn't to cling on to a voting system which is about to effectively disenfranchise 6m people. Its to engage the argument and actually provide solutions. The endless decline of our communities and the sense of powerlessness is why he is a thing. Lets go and fix that.
I agree with all that. The other point on Farage I fail to understand is why him saying x,y and z is toxic whereas Patel, Braverman and JRM saying x,y and z with the same dog whistling and divisiveness is just us being a broad church.
Great, clear, well-argued header! My like for it is no doubt boosted by my agreement with its central argument. I still suspect the Tories will find a way to survive, sadly.
However:
It really, really, really could happen Yes, it really, really, really could happen...
The media just love a good Farage story, basically.
Any excuse to get the man in front of the cameras and they’ll leap at it. They have the same excitement-bias that several posters here (including me sometimes) share.
As noted above, it's the same dynamic as Trump; they've learned nothing.
The other factor in play which hasn't been much remarked on is the protest vote; the 'who do I vote for to show my disgust with the state of affairs ?'
Until now that's worked almost wholly in favour of Labour; the disillusioned right of centre were as likely to not vote as any other option. RefUK achieving some sort of significance in the polls perhaps gives a stronger incentive for a positive protest in the election ?
Which is why someone should have put up 650 deposits for Binface. At least it’s obvious who’s the protest vote, when there’s a man in a costume with a bin on his head walking around the town.
Yes the media are trying to build up Farage, in the same way as they built up Trump, and it’s free advertising for the shameless self-publicists.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
☝️ this. They can crash the economy, disrespect veterans and HM m, raise taxes to their highest level and fail to deliver on every single promise and Tory voters will still find a way to vote for them.
There is literally nothing Sunak can do to lose some Tories vote.
You not understood what I have written
We reject Farage totally and if he polls higher than the conservatives then the thought of a Farage led conservative party is unacceptable and in a very small way our vote for the conservatives is our attempt to try to keep the party out of his hands
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.
Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.
The gain in the Labour vote from 2019 is within the range of previous election results.
What is delivering the projected large majority is the collapse in the Tory vote. Just because one major party’s support hasn’t collapsed like that before, doesn’t mean that it cannot happen.
Indeed, arguably it has happened before, in 1983 for Labour, its just that Labour wasn’t in government at the time.
It’s worth looking at what happens under various Reform squeeze scenarios. After all Reform crashed and burned as recently as the local elections in May, and Con outperformed polling.
If Ref end up down on 6% in July, still triple what they got last time, and most of that goes back to Conservative with a percentage or two to Labour (and some assumptions on Scotland / minor parties), we get the following on EC:
CON 32.0% 200 LAB 42.0% 377 LIB 12.0% 28 Reform 6.0% 2 Green 3.0% 1 SNP 3.3% 19
Much more realistic, and in line with my PB prediction. Still a Boris 19 / Thatcher 83 style majority.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
☝️ this. They can crash the economy, disrespect veterans and HM m, raise taxes to their highest level and fail to deliver on every single promise and Tory voters will still find a way to vote for them.
There is literally nothing Sunak can do to lose some Tories vote.
You not understood what I have written
We reject Farage totally and if he polls higher than the conservatives then the thought of a Farage led conservative party is unacceptable and in a very small way our vote for the conservatives is our attempt to try to keep the party out of his hands
I thought you were voting Lib Dem? No risk of Reform seats in your neck of the woods.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
You’re now just a PB joke.
That’s the second election where you have spent weeks and weeks expressing your discontent with the Tories, claiming you won’t be voting for them, only when it comes to it, you vote for them anyway. Why do you insult us all with your nonsense?
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
On topic, thanks to James for writing the header but I couldn't disagree more.
And I also didn't like it's vindictive tone, I'm afraid.
Important to stay off the koolaid and be careful what one wishes for.
Morning! Surely the vindictive tone is from *the voters* who are clarly and consistently saying they want to destroy your party.
You will say "my returns disagree" when I point out that internal polls and canvass returns must agree with the published polls, otherwise your leader would be out campaigning not in 25k majority seats.
There will be a place for a conservative party in our politics. We remember having one in the recent past, and look forward to its rebirth from the ashes of today's English nationalist party
The media just love a good Farage story, basically.
Any excuse to get the man in front of the cameras and they’ll leap at it. They have the same excitement-bias that several posters here (including me sometimes) share.
As noted above, it's the same dynamic as Trump; they've learned nothing.
The other factor in play which hasn't been much remarked on is the protest vote; the 'who do I vote for to show my disgust with the state of affairs ?'
Until now that's worked almost wholly in favour of Labour; the disillusioned right of centre were as likely to not vote as any other option. RefUK achieving some sort of significance in the polls perhaps gives a stronger incentive for a positive protest in the election ?
Which is why someone should have put up 650 deposits for Binface. At least it’s obvious who’s the protest vote, when there’s a man in a costume with a bin on his head walking around the town.
Yes the media are trying to build up Farage, in the same way as they built up Trump, and it’s free advertising for the shameless self-publicists.
That would be illegal.
You can now only stand in one constituency.
Surely we can find 650 people willing to put a random bin on their heads?
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Disappointing Big_G. I always suspected you'd crumble.
No the Conservative party must not be destroyed because if it is destroyed ie not just getting less than 100 seats but falling behind Reform on seats as well as voteshare, then the LD author of this piece will get exactly what he didn't want. It will be a hard right nationalist party led by Farage that would replace the Tories under FPTP not some new moderate centre right party. Indeed only PR might allow a rump Tories to still win a few seats at all in such a scenario
Indeed even the LDs don't seem to be interested in offering that. The LD manifesto after all was closer to Charles Kennedy social democracy than Nick Clegg Orange Book of the Coalition era when the LDs and Cameron Tories were the moderate centre right in the UK.
Breathe. Don't frantically type as fast as you think.
This election - like every election - is about what *the voters* want. If they vote for Farage they should get Farage. The job of other parties is to politically defeat Faragism, not to rig the system so that Faragism bubbles away below the surface.
If your party gets smashed in a few weeks time its because the voters are so utterly appalled by you. The only people to blame will be yourselves.
There is a thing called leadership. Rather than “There go my people, I must follow them”
The answer to populism (left or right) is to come up with different answers to the questions they ask and the problems they raise. Not flat denial of problems - which has been the political class response to many issues.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
☝️ this. They can crash the economy, disrespect veterans and HM m, raise taxes to their highest level and fail to deliver on every single promise and Tory voters will still find a way to vote for them.
There is literally nothing Sunak can do to lose some Tories vote.
I have been saying ever since Johnson that I would in no circumstances vote Tory, and neither successor has done anything to change my mind. But I now find myself thinking that I like my Tory mp personally and he has done some very good stuff so I might vote for him personally (which is technically what I am doing anyway obviously)
Probably I like him because he is Tory and the good stuff he has done is undoubtedly Tory stuff.
So there is a case study on how Never Tory Again bloviators drift back into the fold.
@Big_G_NorthWales Thanks for your post. The Conservatives need supporters like yourself and your wife. I'm voting blue in my Conservative- Lib Dem marginal in part and only in part as I want, in a small way, to try and keep my moderate Conservative MP for the post-election philosophical fight.
Conservative voters want to vote conservative and will naturally construct reasons, however wafer thin, to justify voting for them despite disliking so much of what they have done.
We see it in all parties when they are up against it.
This kind of inertia is real and will play out across the country. What people say to pollsters in the heat of a scandal is not necessarily how they vote on the day.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
☝️ this. They can crash the economy, disrespect veterans and HM m, raise taxes to their highest level and fail to deliver on every single promise and Tory voters will still find a way to vote for them.
There is literally nothing Sunak can do to lose some Tories vote.
You not understood what I have written
We reject Farage totally and if he polls higher than the conservatives then the thought of a Farage led conservative party is unacceptable and in a very small way our vote for the conservatives is our attempt to try to keep the party out of his hands
Why is a Braverman or Patel led Conservative party offering Faragist policies any better?
And on that subject of voting reform, I note that some of the same people who state that Brexit and Indyref were once-in-a-lifetime referenda and cannot be re-opened are, hypocritically, suddenly all in favour of voting reform.
Neatly ignoring the fact that in 2011 the British people were offered, and decisively rejected, a reform of our electoral system: more decisively indeed than either Brexit or Indyref (68%-32%).
It was offering merely a minor tweak, not the full blown reform that is so badly needed.
I earnestly hope there is no reform of the voting system. We do NOT need to be giving undue power in Government to minority fringe groups like Farage’s Far Right Reform.
He (she?) is correct. We were offered a chance to change it and we said ‘nope’.
This is the system and all the new converts suddenly wanting to change it are only doing so because they don’t like the way results are heading.
"This is the system" is hardly an argument against change. And "all the new converts" are added to those of us who've been arguing for it for years.
Delenda est in this case can mean different things.
Brand name destruction : The title 'Conservative' disappears and we are treated to the same thing but different name. (Townsend Thoresen)
Name continuity: Nothing remains of the current set up but the name 'Conservative' continues as one of the top two parties, with continuity of assets (Manchester United 1900 to Manchester United now)
Destruction destruction: The name goes, the people go, the assets go, and 'Forward Together' or 'For England and St George' parties take their place.
Some sort of 'name continuity' is the most likely, but what rough beast will be slouching towards Westminster is unclear. Betting prediction: It will keep PB busy for some time.
Though it is still possible that at Lab34, Con 25 sort of result will mean destruction is delayed.
The media just love a good Farage story, basically.
Any excuse to get the man in front of the cameras and they’ll leap at it. They have the same excitement-bias that several posters here (including me sometimes) share.
As noted above, it's the same dynamic as Trump; they've learned nothing.
The other factor in play which hasn't been much remarked on is the protest vote; the 'who do I vote for to show my disgust with the state of affairs ?'
Until now that's worked almost wholly in favour of Labour; the disillusioned right of centre were as likely to not vote as any other option. RefUK achieving some sort of significance in the polls perhaps gives a stronger incentive for a positive protest in the election ?
Which is why someone should have put up 650 deposits for Binface. At least it’s obvious who’s the protest vote, when there’s a man in a costume with a bin on his head walking around the town.
Yes the media are trying to build up Farage, in the same way as they built up Trump, and it’s free advertising for the shameless self-publicists.
That would be illegal.
You can now only stand in one constituency.
Oh no, so you’d have to get 650 volunteers to do it.
Would be a great student prank, if some friendly rich donor would put up the deposits and provide the costumes.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.
Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.
I think you will be eating your words on July 5th - the Tory vote protest by simply not going out and voting.
So expect a low (ish) turnout and hideous Tory results…
Maybe, but my point is that if my hypothetical scenario comes to pass it would still be a radical change. We don’t need Baxtered hype and polls are only one source of data.
We don't have 1 source of data - every poll is showing the same thing. the fact Rishi and co are compaigning in what were utterly safe Tory seats is another source of data
Literally everything says the Tories are having a far worse campaign than even I was expecting them to have when the election was called.
In the 2010 campaign a couple of polls put Clegg first, he lost seats. Polls are not everything. Of course the Tories are doing badly. A 150-200 seat outcome would be a terrible result for them.
Seats and polls are different areas - a national poll does not tell you how well you are going to do seat wise because a national poll of 5% has a different result if that 5% is spread equally across the country (no seats) rather than concentrated in 1 area (50 seats for the SNP is Scotland out of 59)...
Which is where Reform has problem because to win seats you need to get 30% or 40% (depending on how the votes get split) in an actual constituency and that's very difficult if you vote is broad and shallow rather than regional and deep..
Basically polls show trends they don't show actual results unless you have real in depth knowledge...
I think Reform can get to 20% in a fair number of constituencies, but to get much better than that there needs to be a strong ground game from local activists and councillors, and articulate media savvy local candidates. That's how the LDs do it.
It's why UKIP/BXP/REFUK have always failed at FPTP elections. They have a hugh floor but a low ceiling. Farage is a rabble rouser not an organiser.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Disappointing Big_G. I always suspected you'd crumble.
Twice in a row, at least we now know for certain that everything he posts between elections can be ignored.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.
Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.
It is a scenario! The death of the UK polling industry where every pollster including the ones employed by parties for private polls get it completely wrong.
It goes beyond polling - parties also have canvass returns to guide them. In your scenario the Tories are doing MUCH better than the headlines suggest. And yet when we look at what the Tories are doing, it demonstrates that if anything the polls aren't showing enough of a rout.
If Tory last time voters were Tory this time, we would know. Tory activists are knocking doors and making calls. That data gets fed into their model alongside their own polling. And sets the direction for the campaign.
Sunak is being sent in to defend True Blue seats with 20k majorities. Ministers are pushing lines to not give Labour a super majority. Are saying its OK to put Farage on Tory leaflets. Are desperately pitching to their core vote.
They would not be doing any of those things if your scenario was in play. There could be an abrupt plot twist - at the last a few million decide to vote Tory after all. But that is hopium. It isn't rooted in reality.
So it could happen. It just very certainly won't.
My point is that a 150-200 seat outcome for Labour or Conservative is traditionally a very bad result. You don’t need the hype of the last few days to still have a monumentally bad result.
Having spent the last few decades, I’ve learned that Tory voters turn out on election day and should not be underestimated.
I would be delighted if that were not the case. The Tories will do badly, but I would be surprised if the result lives up to the hype.
The local election results would, I think, point to a result at around the ~200 seat mark. Very bad, but slightly better than 1997.
However, Sunak's campaign has so far been weaker than Major's.
I have shied away from making a prediction, but with 19 days to go I will now do so. I agree to a large extent with Jonathan. The shambling blue hordes of the Tory vote will turn out in sufficient numbers to stave off ELE. It will, in large part, be a vote against Labour, a reflex, a habit, a vote for the local candidate rather than for the leader or the government. But many will still, reluctantly, turn out.
Similarly, Labour voters will, to an extent, evaporate like the morning dew. Victory, seemingly inevitable, will not require everyone to add their nail to the coffin, and so reasons for other votes, or not voting will be found.
My predicted vote (seat) shares: CON 29% (205) LAB 38% (355) LDM 14% (45) GRN 4% (2) RFM 9% (2) 23 other British seats and 18 for NI. I'll put a full entry together for Farooq's competition soon too.
No the Conservative party must not be destroyed because if it is destroyed ie not just getting less than 100 seats but falling behind Reform on seats as well as voteshare, then the LD author of this piece will get exactly what he didn't want. It will be a hard right nationalist party led by Farage that would replace the Tories under FPTP not some new moderate centre right party. Indeed only PR might allow a rump Tories to still win a few seats at all in such a scenario
Indeed even the LDs don't seem to be interested in offering that. The LD manifesto after all was closer to Charles Kennedy social democracy than Nick Clegg Orange Book of the Coalition era when the LDs and Cameron Tories were the moderate centre right in the UK.
In short, your view is that the main value of the Conservative Party is acting as a brake on the right.
For a long time, it was. Maggie, in particular, was pretty artful at throwing the right-right enough bones to keep them onboard. At some point in the Blair years, that stopped being sustainable, with the results we now see.
If it weren't for FPTP, the answer would be pretty easy. There's crudely three ways of being right of centre. The old wets (who don't really have a party right now), the mainstream right (roughly May or Sunak only with better political antennae) and the populist nationalists (which is where Reform are). Keep them in one tent, it's a formidable force. Scatter them, as has happened, and the political map ends up with as much red as TimS's weather forecast.
So what's next? If @jamesdoyle's splendid header is right, all that is left is the brand.The wets and the beyond dries can't stand being in the same party any more. It's better that Mummy and Daddy don't live together.
But only one of Reform Plus and (let's say) Liberal Unionist can survive in FPTP. Look at Canada. RefCan had a stronger base than RefUK and never rose above being the principal opposition. And the main point is simple. A party that throws up three duff PMs in succession, a fraud then a nutter then a nobody, is going to need a heck of a relaunch before people listen to them again.
And in the meantime, the other lot win by default.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
You’re now just a PB joke.
That’s the second election where you have spent weeks and weeks expressing your discontent with the Tories, claiming you won’t be voting for them, only when it comes to it, you vote for them anyway. Why do you insult us all with your nonsense?
You seem to be attacking my wife's view on this and upset at her view of Ed Davey being a clown
I expected this response but when you have just celebrated 60 years marriage we discuss and come to agreement on lots of things and this is just a minor one
@jamesdoyle thank you for engaging directly with posters. Your clarification helps (early in the morning for my brain!). I still disagree. I think the anti-reform element of the party is larger than alluded, especially at parliamentary level, and to destroy the party destroys them. I still believe that the media give Reform's rise too much credibility. Not enough people challenge Farage. Yes they are tapping in to a stream of opinion that the Conservatives must address, but the party is essentially a one man band, with limited infrastructure. Evidence of previous surges for outsider parties has suggested they fall back. The media love a narrative and Reform will do ok, but not, I suspect, as well as people think.
Here is the problem with Farage - he is closer to reality than people want to accept. The NHS as one example. He wants to replace it with a French-style system which so many of us suspect would just be an open door to American insurance companies.
But the heart of his argument - too much money being spent in the wrong places. And that is true, not a million miles away from what Daisy Cooper was saying on the same stage.
The secret of the Nigel's success is that he takes complex issues (like the NHS) and cuts straight to the core issue which he clips, simplifies and packages into a form people who don't really know how it works can digest.
I vehemently dislike his politics. But you have to respect the craft. He is a significant political operator. The way to defeat Faragism isn't to cling on to a voting system which is about to effectively disenfranchise 6m people. Its to engage the argument and actually provide solutions. The endless decline of our communities and the sense of powerlessness is why he is a thing. Lets go and fix that.
You can see the similarity with Cummings.
I suppose the question is does he propose dodgy solutions because he's a bit dim, because he's very dodgy or because of some combination thereof?
Two things for me: 1. Farage is one of these operators who does big picture. Don't worry about the detail, just slap the paint down. 2. Farage knows that many millions of voters are politically clueless. They don't understand how anything works because the system actively discourages people from trying to find out. So the stuff that has the informed out in horror sounds appealing if you don't know.
Again again, voters are not as stupid as politicians think. But there are a long list of things that all of us do not know in any detail. And voters like Farage set out to exploit those unknown unknowns to paint a Big Picture with a clear message and a simple solution. With a dash of "they won't let us" on the side.
It is a very interesting position. I think the thesis is fundamentally wrong as if the Conservative brand went, something much nastier, more resemblent of secular Paisleyism would take it's place in time.
Part of the problem is that "far-right" is grossly overused and used as a smear against anyone who disagrees with the current "mainstream" political consensus.
For example, a party proposing the return of the death penalty for murderers of children within the rule of law and judicial process with all it's safeguards is *not* far right, A party proposing the death penalty of its opponents using bills of attainder or applying it to trivial offences like "walking on the cracks of the pavement while wearing a loud shirt" is far right.
By smearing right wing views (views that were mainstream in democratic 1950s Britain) as far right, you smear those with those views.
Demonise enough people as far right and you risk someone actually far right getting power as you make the far right taboo (and voting for it) meaningless.
So be careful what you wish for.
Wise words.
It’s what happened in France - the National Ramblers rebadged a couple of times from the old FN. Got the boot boys to wear their suits convincingly.
Meanwhile the discourse was “if you question x, you are a Le Pen supporter”. Which became recruitment tool for them.
Macron half pulled things back - but he and his party are very much a one-man band.
Thank you James for an excellent piece. You certainly put the right questions, even if we can't all agree on the answers.
First, let's consider what the punters are predicting. Betfair is a better guide here than the spread firms, although there isn't a huge gap between the two. I'd say the Exchanges are implying about 90 Tory seats. Baxter suggests 80 but I'd go with Betfair. So that puts us in your 'wipeout' territory.
Now I must add my own two-pennywoth and say that I think we are in uncharted waters. It is like no other GE I can recall. Those voters who have not already made up their minds are unpredictable. This could have a dramatic effect on the nature of post-GE events. If that thought nurtures some hope in the hearts of its supporters, Conservatives should be aware that there is no reason to suppose the uncertainty will be resolved in their favour. Things could get worse, much worse. I agree with James that the central issue of the next PM and Government is already decided. If this feeling is widespread, it may well liberate voters in the sense they feel at ease with voting for whatever Party their views most align with, rather than voting to pick a Leader and Government. Or they may vote frivolously, or not at all. Hard to tell in such uncharted teritory. All I would say is that as a punter, I am betting tentatively. Yes, we are looking at a Labour majority for sure, but outside that mundane observation, almost anything could happen.
What then of the James's classical question? I'm not sure the wholesale destruction of the Tory Party would be such a great thing. Personally I would love to see a new Conservative Party arise from the ashes and breathe fresh life into centre-right politics, or at least provide a decent alternative to Labour. But I am pessimistic. Why?
Look up Electoral College and scan through the names of the Con survivors in the event of Baxter's latest prediction of 80 seats coming true. The more prominent and influential names I note include: - Leadsome, Francois, Patel,Barclay, Badenoch, Trott, Chope (sic), Williamson (!), and Nokes.
If that 's going to be the nucleus of the New Conservative Party, then the sooner and more comprehensively Carthago Delenda Est the better.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
☝️ this. They can crash the economy, disrespect veterans and HM m, raise taxes to their highest level and fail to deliver on every single promise and Tory voters will still find a way to vote for them.
There is literally nothing Sunak can do to lose some Tories vote.
You not understood what I have written
We reject Farage totally and if he polls higher than the conservatives then the thought of a Farage led conservative party is unacceptable and in a very small way our vote for the conservatives is our attempt to try to keep the party out of his hands
I understand perfectly. You’re voting Tory. You’ve constructed an argument to legitimise staying in a safe familiar place.
We all do it from time to time. I stuck with Labour during the dark days to save it for this moment. I get it. Inertia is a big force in British politics.
On topic, thanks to James for writing the header but I couldn't disagree more.
And I also didn't like it's vindictive tone, I'm afraid.
Important to stay off the koolaid and be careful what one wishes for.
Morning! Surely the vindictive tone is from *the voters* who are clarly and consistently saying they want to destroy your party.
You will say "my returns disagree" when I point out that internal polls and canvass returns must agree with the published polls, otherwise your leader would be out campaigning not in 25k majority seats.
There will be a place for a conservative party in our politics. We remember having one in the recent past, and look forward to its rebirth from the ashes of today's English nationalist party
@jamesdoyle thank you for engaging directly with posters. Your clarification helps (early in the morning for my brain!). I still disagree. I think the anti-reform element of the party is larger than alluded, especially at parliamentary level, and to destroy the party destroys them. I still believe that the media give Reform's rise too much credibility. Not enough people challenge Farage. Yes they are tapping in to a stream of opinion that the Conservatives must address, but the party is essentially a one man band, with limited infrastructure. Evidence of previous surges for outsider parties has suggested they fall back. The media love a narrative and Reform will do ok, but not, I suspect, as well as people think.
Here is the problem with Farage - he is closer to reality than people want to accept. The NHS as one example. He wants to replace it with a French-style system which so many of us suspect would just be an open door to American insurance companies.
But the heart of his argument - too much money being spent in the wrong places. And that is true, not a million miles away from what Daisy Cooper was saying on the same stage.
The secret of the Nigel's success is that he takes complex issues (like the NHS) and cuts straight to the core issue which he clips, simplifies and packages into a form people who don't really know how it works can digest.
I vehemently dislike his politics. But you have to respect the craft. He is a significant political operator. The way to defeat Faragism isn't to cling on to a voting system which is about to effectively disenfranchise 6m people. Its to engage the argument and actually provide solutions. The endless decline of our communities and the sense of powerlessness is why he is a thing. Lets go and fix that.
You can see the similarity with Cummings.
I suppose the question is does he propose dodgy solutions because he's a bit dim, because he's very dodgy or because of some combination thereof?
His intelligence or otherwise is fairly irrelevant. His skill lies in manipulation (or persuasion, if you prefer). He's interested in only power, much like his American idol.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
You’re now just a PB joke.
That’s the second election where you have spent weeks and weeks expressing your discontent with the Tories, claiming you won’t be voting for them, only when it comes to it, you vote for them anyway. Why do you insult us all with your nonsense?
You seem to be attacking my wife's view on this and upset at her view of Ed Davey being a clown
I expected this response but when you have just celebrated 60 years marriage we discuss and come to agreement on lots of things and this is just a minor one
You can vote for whoever you want, obviously.
What I object to is all the self-deluding nonsense that you have posted here, for months on end, now for two elections running.
Don’t expect anyone to take you seriously, in future.
The media just love a good Farage story, basically.
Any excuse to get the man in front of the cameras and they’ll leap at it. They have the same excitement-bias that several posters here (including me sometimes) share.
As noted above, it's the same dynamic as Trump; they've learned nothing.
The other factor in play which hasn't been much remarked on is the protest vote; the 'who do I vote for to show my disgust with the state of affairs ?'
Until now that's worked almost wholly in favour of Labour; the disillusioned right of centre were as likely to not vote as any other option. RefUK achieving some sort of significance in the polls perhaps gives a stronger incentive for a positive protest in the election ?
Which is why someone should have put up 650 deposits for Binface. At least it’s obvious who’s the protest vote, when there’s a man in a costume with a bin on his head walking around the town.
Yes the media are trying to build up Farage, in the same way as they built up Trump, and it’s free advertising for the shameless self-publicists.
That would be illegal.
You can now only stand in one constituency.
Surely we can find 650 people willing to put a random bin on their heads?
Count Binhead's policies are the sort of thing that can be easily localised. Heck you could probably find a pub willing to cover the £500 fee in return for a being featured in the move the hand dryer in the gent's loos of X pub bit...
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Disappointing Big_G. I always suspected you'd crumble.
Twice in a row, at least we now know for certain that everything he posts between elections can be ignored.
I can see Big_G's point of view here. I absolutely deplore the current incarnation of the Conservative Party, but I'm in a Con seat that will certainly turn Lab and I'm strongly considering voting Con as a protest vote against Reform.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.
Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.
It is a scenario! The death of the UK polling industry where every pollster including the ones employed by parties for private polls get it completely wrong.
It goes beyond polling - parties also have canvass returns to guide them. In your scenario the Tories are doing MUCH better than the headlines suggest. And yet when we look at what the Tories are doing, it demonstrates that if anything the polls aren't showing enough of a rout.
If Tory last time voters were Tory this time, we would know. Tory activists are knocking doors and making calls. That data gets fed into their model alongside their own polling. And sets the direction for the campaign.
Sunak is being sent in to defend True Blue seats with 20k majorities. Ministers are pushing lines to not give Labour a super majority. Are saying its OK to put Farage on Tory leaflets. Are desperately pitching to their core vote.
They would not be doing any of those things if your scenario was in play. There could be an abrupt plot twist - at the last a few million decide to vote Tory after all. But that is hopium. It isn't rooted in reality.
So it could happen. It just very certainly won't.
My point is that a 150-200 seat outcome for Labour or Conservative is traditionally a very bad result. You don’t need the hype of the last few days to still have a monumentally bad result.
Having spent the last few decades, I’ve learned that Tory voters turn out on election day and should not be underestimated.
I would be delighted if that were not the case. The Tories will do badly, but I would be surprised if the result lives up to the hype.
The local election results would, I think, point to a result at around the ~200 seat mark. Very bad, but slightly better than 1997.
However, Sunak's campaign has so far been weaker than Major's.
I have shied away from making a prediction, but with 19 days to go I will now do so. I agree to a large extent with Jonathan. The shambling blue hordes of the Tory vote will turn out in sufficient numbers to stave off ELE. It will, in large part, be a vote against Labour, a reflex, a habit, a vote for the local candidate rather than for the leader or the government. But many will still, reluctantly, turn out.
Similarly, Labour voters will, to an extent, evaporate like the morning dew. Victory, seemingly inevitable, will not require everyone to add their nail to the coffin, and so reasons for other votes, or not voting will be found.
My predicted vote (seat) shares: CON 29% (205) LAB 38% (355) LDM 14% (45) GRN 4% (2) RFM 9% (2) 23 other British seats and 18 for NI. I'll put a full entry together for Farooq's competition soon too.
There are some cracking bets on Reform voteshare out there.
I'd just sold them beneath 17.5% at Ladbrokes for 5/6 (boosted).
My heart is to vote Reform but my head is to do the unthinkable and vote Labour as Labour are the incumbent (sort of) and have the best chance of defeating the Conservatives.
I want to see the near extinction of them. They are not honourable. They have lied and lied to us. For example on immigration. They lied, not for honourable reasons but to get cheap labour for sweatshops and short term profits for their mates rather than the hard work of training enough people, reforming benefits so that work pays (throwing away IDS and the Coalitions work) and supporting getting those on a benefits lifestyle back into work and a worthwhile life.
Meanwhile house prices and rents soar as far more people are being imported than our housing stock can support and our infrastructure and public services collapses for the same reasons.
The media just love a good Farage story, basically.
Any excuse to get the man in front of the cameras and they’ll leap at it. They have the same excitement-bias that several posters here (including me sometimes) share.
As noted above, it's the same dynamic as Trump; they've learned nothing.
The other factor in play which hasn't been much remarked on is the protest vote; the 'who do I vote for to show my disgust with the state of affairs ?'
Until now that's worked almost wholly in favour of Labour; the disillusioned right of centre were as likely to not vote as any other option. RefUK achieving some sort of significance in the polls perhaps gives a stronger incentive for a positive protest in the election ?
Which is why someone should have put up 650 deposits for Binface. At least it’s obvious who’s the protest vote, when there’s a man in a costume with a bin on his head walking around the town.
Yes the media are trying to build up Farage, in the same way as they built up Trump, and it’s free advertising for the shameless self-publicists.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.
Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.
It is a scenario! The death of the UK polling industry where every pollster including the ones employed by parties for private polls get it completely wrong.
It goes beyond polling - parties also have canvass returns to guide them. In your scenario the Tories are doing MUCH better than the headlines suggest. And yet when we look at what the Tories are doing, it demonstrates that if anything the polls aren't showing enough of a rout.
If Tory last time voters were Tory this time, we would know. Tory activists are knocking doors and making calls. That data gets fed into their model alongside their own polling. And sets the direction for the campaign.
Sunak is being sent in to defend True Blue seats with 20k majorities. Ministers are pushing lines to not give Labour a super majority. Are saying its OK to put Farage on Tory leaflets. Are desperately pitching to their core vote.
They would not be doing any of those things if your scenario was in play. There could be an abrupt plot twist - at the last a few million decide to vote Tory after all. But that is hopium. It isn't rooted in reality.
So it could happen. It just very certainly won't.
My point is that a 150-200 seat outcome for Labour or Conservative is traditionally a very bad result. You don’t need the hype of the last few days to still have a monumentally bad result.
Having spent the last few decades, I’ve learned that Tory voters turn out on election day and should not be underestimated.
I would be delighted if that were not the case. The Tories will do badly, but I would be surprised if the result lives up to the hype.
The local election results would, I think, point to a result at around the ~200 seat mark. Very bad, but slightly better than 1997.
However, Sunak's campaign has so far been weaker than Major's.
I have shied away from making a prediction, but with 19 days to go I will now do so. I agree to a large extent with Jonathan. The shambling blue hordes of the Tory vote will turn out in sufficient numbers to stave off ELE. It will, in large part, be a vote against Labour, a reflex, a habit, a vote for the local candidate rather than for the leader or the government. But many will still, reluctantly, turn out.
Similarly, Labour voters will, to an extent, evaporate like the morning dew. Victory, seemingly inevitable, will not require everyone to add their nail to the coffin, and so reasons for other votes, or not voting will be found.
My predicted vote (seat) shares: CON 29% (205) LAB 38% (355) LDM 14% (45) GRN 4% (2) RFM 9% (2) 23 other British seats and 18 for NI. I'll put a full entry together for Farooq's competition soon too.
Important post. The locals were real votes, not polls and are a useful counter balance. My impression is that the Tory position has weakened a little since May, but not as much as the hype.
France seems to be the perfect example of what you get when the mainstream Conservatives go down the plughole. Or Holland. Or the USA, within the Republican Party.
It’s not that millions of right wing voters suddenly see the light and become left liberals. Rather, they radicalise.
@Big_G_NorthWales Thanks for your post. The Conservatives need supporters like yourself and your wife. I'm voting blue in my Conservative- Lib Dem marginal in part and only in part as I want, in a small way, to try and keep my moderate Conservative MP for the post-election philosophical fight.
Conservative voters want to vote conservative and will naturally construct reasons, however wafer thin, to justify voting for them despite disliking so much of what they have done.
We see it in all parties when they are up against it.
This kind of inertia is real and will play out across the country. What people say to pollsters in the heat of a scandal is not necessarily how they vote on the day.
On topic, thanks to James for writing the header but I couldn't disagree more.
And I also didn't like it's vindictive tone, I'm afraid.
Important to stay off the koolaid and be careful what one wishes for.
I (perhaps unsurprisingly) didn't discern a vindictive tone but I agree with the 'be careful what you wish for sentiment'.
Personally I feel this is a 'roll the dice' moment and I am happy to see the dice rolled - I cannot believe an extreme right-wing party will ever win power in the UK, so let's shake it up and see what happens.
However, I am pretty sure the Tories will salvage a 1997-style defeat from this GE and stumble on, much as I would wish it otherwise.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
I think your wife is being very unfair on Ed Davey there - when it comes to Ed's testimony I expect he will be throwing very civil servants into the mix for not providing accurate information to him (now on one level that may be unfair but he was a newly elected MP thrust into a ministerial position without training and I expect that lack of familiarity was used against him to hide embarrassing facts).
The media just love a good Farage story, basically.
Any excuse to get the man in front of the cameras and they’ll leap at it. They have the same excitement-bias that several posters here (including me sometimes) share.
As noted above, it's the same dynamic as Trump; they've learned nothing.
The other factor in play which hasn't been much remarked on is the protest vote; the 'who do I vote for to show my disgust with the state of affairs ?'
Until now that's worked almost wholly in favour of Labour; the disillusioned right of centre were as likely to not vote as any other option. RefUK achieving some sort of significance in the polls perhaps gives a stronger incentive for a positive protest in the election ?
Which is why someone should have put up 650 deposits for Binface. At least it’s obvious who’s the protest vote, when there’s a man in a costume with a bin on his head walking around the town.
Yes the media are trying to build up Farage, in the same way as they built up Trump, and it’s free advertising for the shameless self-publicists.
That would be illegal.
You can now only stand in one constituency.
Perhaps he could run stormtroopers in other constituencies, with smaller bins on their heads, more like bathroom bins than kitchen ones.
The media just love a good Farage story, basically.
Any excuse to get the man in front of the cameras and they’ll leap at it. They have the same excitement-bias that several posters here (including me sometimes) share.
As noted above, it's the same dynamic as Trump; they've learned nothing.
The other factor in play which hasn't been much remarked on is the protest vote; the 'who do I vote for to show my disgust with the state of affairs ?'
Until now that's worked almost wholly in favour of Labour; the disillusioned right of centre were as likely to not vote as any other option. RefUK achieving some sort of significance in the polls perhaps gives a stronger incentive for a positive protest in the election ?
Which is why someone should have put up 650 deposits for Binface. At least it’s obvious who’s the protest vote, when there’s a man in a costume with a bin on his head walking around the town.
Yes the media are trying to build up Farage, in the same way as they built up Trump, and it’s free advertising for the shameless self-publicists.
On topic, thanks to James for writing the header but I couldn't disagree more.
And I also didn't like it's vindictive tone, I'm afraid.
Important to stay off the koolaid and be careful what one wishes for.
Morning! Surely the vindictive tone is from *the voters* who are clarly and consistently saying they want to destroy your party.
You will say "my returns disagree" when I point out that internal polls and canvass returns must agree with the published polls, otherwise your leader would be out campaigning not in 25k majority seats.
There will be a place for a conservative party in our politics. We remember having one in the recent past, and look forward to its rebirth from the ashes of today's English nationalist party
Ah, it was you.
That explains it.
I know that you violently disagree with my existence on here. Would you care to engage on any points being made?
Just on polling and canvas returns perhaps. If the polls are wrong and Tory canvassing shows its much better than the headlines, why is Sunak campaigning almost entirely in 25k majority seats?
Does that not indicate by his actions that the polls are right? Whether they are vindictive or not?
I know what electoral wipeout is like. 2019 local elections. We got utterly demolished in Thornaby by the independents. I don't recall angrily blaming the voters or indeed our own polling returns suggesting this would happen. You get what you vote for - and sometimes the vote is for someone else. Such is politics!
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Disappointing Big_G. I always suspected you'd crumble.
If I had a pound for every occasion Big_G said he wouldn't vote for them this time...
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Disappointing Big_G. I always suspected you'd crumble.
Twice in a row, at least we now know for certain that everything he posts between elections can be ignored.
You seem very bitter but then I expected it but at least I provided an explanation and the fact my wife thinks Ed Davey is a clown probably hurt most
On topic, thanks to James for writing the header but I couldn't disagree more.
And I also didn't like it's vindictive tone, I'm afraid.
Important to stay off the koolaid and be careful what one wishes for.
I (perhaps unsurprisingly) didn't discern a vindictive tone but I agree with the 'be careful what you wish for sentiment'.
Personally I feel this is a 'roll the dice' moment and I am happy to see the dice rolled - I cannot believe an extreme right-wing party will ever win power in the UK, so let's shake it up and see what happens.
However, I am pretty sure the Tories will salvage a 1997-style defeat from this GE and stumble on, much as I would wish it otherwise.
Yet the Tories seem to be seeking to annoy all potential voters by one means or another. You hope is really that the Tories voters will salvage a 1997-style defeat in spite of both the Tory party campaign and the fact no polls are showing any swingback towards the Tory party (a swingback that would usually be visible in polling trends by now).
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
You’re now just a PB joke.
That’s the second election where you have spent weeks and weeks expressing your discontent with the Tories, claiming you won’t be voting for them, only when it comes to it, you vote for them anyway. Why do you insult us all with your nonsense?
You seem to be attacking my wife's view on this and upset at her view of Ed Davey being a clown
I expected this response but when you have just celebrated 60 years marriage we discuss and come to agreement on lots of things and this is just a minor one
You can vote for whoever you want, obviously.
What I object to is all the self-deluding nonsense that you have posted here, for months on end, now for two elections running.
Don’t expect anyone to take you seriously, in future.
I wholly disagree with his choice. However he has thought long and deeply about it. This in itself is praiseworthy and our country would be in a much better state if more did.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
I think your wife is being very unfair on Ed Davey there - when it comes to Ed's testimony I expect he will be throwing very civil servants into the mix for not providing accurate information to him (now on one level that may be unfair but he was a newly elected MP thrust into a ministerial position without training and I expect that lack of familiarity was used against him to hide embarrassing facts).
There's the possibility that he is a victim of the Good Samaritan paradox - that is, you are bulletproof if you pass by on the other side but liable for negligence if you take a well intentioned interest but make things worse (or even fail to make them better). His evidence will be interesting. He is possibly very lucky that it postdates the election
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Disappointing Big_G. I always suspected you'd crumble.
Twice in a row, at least we now know for certain that everything he posts between elections can be ignored.
You seem very bitter but then I expected it but at least I provided an explanation and the fact my wife thinks Ed Davey is a clown probably hurt most
Mr. Pointer, the Romans never had civil wars. Until they did. I hope you're right about the extremists never winning here but it should not be considered impossible.
France seems to be the perfect example of what you get when the mainstream Conservatives go down the plughole. Or Holland. Or the USA, within the Republican Party.
It’s not that millions of right wing voters suddenly see the light and become left liberals. Rather, they radicalise.
Well yes and no. Le Pen and RN have tacked centrally to build support, jetisoning the anti-semitism and becoming more pro-EU. Le Pen even chucked out her father, a move that makes Starmers shunning of Corbyn rather pale into insignificance.
It's not a party that I would vote for, but neither is it the party that it was.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Disappointing Big_G. I always suspected you'd crumble.
Twice in a row, at least we now know for certain that everything he posts between elections can be ignored.
I can see Big_G's point of view here. I absolutely deplore the current incarnation of the Conservative Party, but I'm in a Con seat that will certainly turn Lab and I'm strongly considering voting Con as a protest vote against Reform.
In seats where the outcome is certain it doesn't matter who you vote for. Sadly. One of the principle reasons why I hate this voting system.
The rationale in a safe seat is likely very different to rationale in a seat up for a change. A few movements to consider: Red Wall Tories appear to be going back to Labour or to Reform. Expect the likes of Jacob Young to come 3rd. Blue Wall Tories appear to be going LD. Hunt knows it. Elsewhere? The Reform modal shift is underway. If you lean that way in the Tory vote - and most do it would appear - then a vote for Farage IS a Conservative vote. For the Conservative Party you actually want.
That pull will prove to be irresistible for so many.
@jamesdoyle thank you for engaging directly with posters. Your clarification helps (early in the morning for my brain!). I still disagree. I think the anti-reform element of the party is larger than alluded, especially at parliamentary level, and to destroy the party destroys them. I still believe that the media give Reform's rise too much credibility. Not enough people challenge Farage. Yes they are tapping in to a stream of opinion that the Conservatives must address, but the party is essentially a one man band, with limited infrastructure. Evidence of previous surges for outsider parties has suggested they fall back. The media love a narrative and Reform will do ok, but not, I suspect, as well as people think.
Here is the problem with Farage - he is closer to reality than people want to accept. The NHS as one example. He wants to replace it with a French-style system which so many of us suspect would just be an open door to American insurance companies.
But the heart of his argument - too much money being spent in the wrong places. And that is true, not a million miles away from what Daisy Cooper was saying on the same stage.
The secret of the Nigel's success is that he takes complex issues (like the NHS) and cuts straight to the core issue which he clips, simplifies and packages into a form people who don't really know how it works can digest.
I vehemently dislike his politics. But you have to respect the craft. He is a significant political operator. The way to defeat Faragism isn't to cling on to a voting system which is about to effectively disenfranchise 6m people. Its to engage the argument and actually provide solutions. The endless decline of our communities and the sense of powerlessness is why he is a thing. Lets go and fix that.
You can see the similarity with Cummings.
I suppose the question is does he propose dodgy solutions because he's a bit dim, because he's very dodgy or because of some combination thereof?
Two things for me: 1. Farage is one of these operators who does big picture. Don't worry about the detail, just slap the paint down. 2. Farage knows that many millions of voters are politically clueless. They don't understand how anything works because the system actively discourages people from trying to find out. So the stuff that has the informed out in horror sounds appealing if you don't know.
Again again, voters are not as stupid as politicians think. But there are a long list of things that all of us do not know in any detail. And voters like Farage set out to exploit those unknown unknowns to paint a Big Picture with a clear message and a simple solution. With a dash of "they won't let us" on the side.
Farage also knows that he isn't going to be in Government - so his mutually exclusive policies that both massively reduce tax and massively increase public spending aren't things he needs to worry about. And the only people who look at that tiny amount of detail are not his natural base in the first place...
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Disappointing Big_G. I always suspected you'd crumble.
Twice in a row, at least we now know for certain that everything he posts between elections can be ignored.
You seem very bitter but then I expected it but at least I provided an explanation and the fact my wife thinks Ed Davey is a clown probably hurt most
You’re a straw in the wind, and from a betting perspective a warning for us not to get too carried away with the latest polls, since there are tons of people who will simply always vote Conservative regardless of how low they sink or whatever bad things they do.
It’s just that the others don’t post their opinions for months on end on the country’s premier political discussion forum and expect their views to be taken seriously.
I disagree either most of what James has written here.
I would like you see the Tory party destroyed, just as I would like to see the Labour Party destroyed.
I would like to see the Lib Dems squished into nothingness as well - destroyed is too powerful a word for such an insignificant bunch of non entities.
And I don't want Farage anywhere near power either.
But James' fundamental mistake is thinking the parties dictate how people vote. They do not. Get rid of the Tories an the Right will still be split pretty evenly between those of Cameroon tendency and the Faragistas. Get rid of the Labour Party and the Left will still be split fairly evenly between the Social Democrats and the Corbynistas.
Thinking a new centre right party will sweep away the threat of Farage or that the Starmerite Labour Party has buried the Corbynite threat is just wishful thinking. It is the exact mistake Macron has made in France and why we face the real and horrible prospect of a Le Pen presidency.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
I think your wife is being very unfair on Ed Davey there - when it comes to Ed's testimony I expect he will be throwing very civil servants into the mix for not providing accurate information to him (now on one level that may be unfair but he was a newly elected MP thrust into a ministerial position without training and I expect that lack of familiarity was used against him to hide embarrassing facts).
Alan Bates is local to us and as a customer she knew him and is very much on the side of the SPM 's and Davey has not helped her attitude towards him with his 'clowning' around on water
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Disappointing Big_G. I always suspected you'd crumble.
Twice in a row, at least we now know for certain that everything he posts between elections can be ignored.
You seem very bitter but then I expected it but at least I provided an explanation and the fact my wife thinks Ed Davey is a clown probably hurt most
So you’ll vote for the party of totally not a clown Boris Johnson, as in 2019, and in protest against the treatment of subpostmasters you’ll vote for the party that has had a string of ministers responsible for the post office since 2015 who refused to compensate them even as the evidence got more and more obvious. Essentially because the Tory press has done such an effective look-squirrel attack job on Davey.
But this and other posts this morning are exactly the sort of thing that explains why the Conservative Party non est delenda.
On topic, thanks to James for writing the header but I couldn't disagree more.
And I also didn't like it's vindictive tone, I'm afraid.
Important to stay off the koolaid and be careful what one wishes for.
I (perhaps unsurprisingly) didn't discern a vindictive tone but I agree with the 'be careful what you wish for sentiment'.
Personally I feel this is a 'roll the dice' moment and I am happy to see the dice rolled - I cannot believe an extreme right-wing party will ever win power in the UK, so let's shake it up and see what happens.
However, I am pretty sure the Tories will salvage a 1997-style defeat from this GE and stumble on, much as I would wish it otherwise.
I didn't read it as vindictive, either. But it would, I think, if you took an attack on the Conservative Party personally.
I'm with PtP upthread. In the circumstances, it would be best if the party were destroyed - but my opinion doesn't really count in the matter.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
I think your wife is being very unfair on Ed Davey there - when it comes to Ed's testimony I expect he will be throwing very civil servants into the mix for not providing accurate information to him (now on one level that may be unfair but he was a newly elected MP thrust into a ministerial position without training and I expect that lack of familiarity was used against him to hide embarrassing facts).
Alan Bates is local to us and as a customer she knew him and is very much on the side of the SPM 's and Davey has not helped her attitude towards him with his 'clowning' around on water
He clearly learned nothing from the reaction William Hague got to doing similar.
Yes politicians are human beings but people want those who might take big decisions (like taking us to war) to be serious people
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.
Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.
It is a scenario! The death of the UK polling industry where every pollster including the ones employed by parties for private polls get it completely wrong.
It goes beyond polling - parties also have canvass returns to guide them. In your scenario the Tories are doing MUCH better than the headlines suggest. And yet when we look at what the Tories are doing, it demonstrates that if anything the polls aren't showing en ough of a rout.
If Tory last time voters were Tory this time, we would know. Tory activists are knocking doors and making calls. That data gets fed into their model alongside their own polling. And sets the direction for the campaign.
Sunak is being sent in to defend True Blue seats with 20k majorities. Ministers are pushing lines to not give Labour a super majority. Are saying its OK to put Farage on Tory leaflets. Are desperately pitching to their core vote.
They would not be doing any of those things if your scenario was in play. There could be an abrupt plot twist - at the last a few million decide to vote Tory after all. But that is hopium. It isn't rooted in reality.
So it could happen. It just very certainly won't.
My point is that a 150-200 seat outcome for Labour or Conservative is traditionally a very bad result. You don’t need the hype of the last few days to still have a monumentally bad result.
Having spent the last few decades, I’ve learned that Tory voters turn out on election day and should not be underestimated.
I would be delighted if that were not the case. The Tories will do badly, but I would be surprised if the result lives up to the hype.
The local election results would, I think, point to a result at around the ~200 seat mark. Very bad, but slightly better than 1997.
However, Sunak's campaign has so far been weaker than Major's.
I have shied away from making a prediction, but with 19 days to go I will now do so. I agree to a large extent with Jonathan. The shambling blue hordes of the Tory vote will turn out in sufficient numbers to stave off ELE. It will, in large part, be a vote against Labour, a reflex, a habit, a vote for the local candidate rather than for the leader or the government. But many will still, reluctantly, turn out.
Similarly, Labour voters will, to an extent, evaporate like the morning dew. Victory, seemingly inevitable, will not require everyone to add their nail to the coffin, and so reasons for other votes, or not voting will be found.
My predicted vote (seat) shares: CON 29% (205) LAB 38% (355) LDM 14% (45) GRN 4% (2) RFM 9% (2) 23 other British seats and 18 for NI. I'll put a full entry together for Farooq's competition soon too.
Important post. The locals were real votes, not polls and are a useful counter balance. My impression is that the Tory position has weakened a little since May, but not as much as the hype.
There is an awful lot of sense in what you and Lost Password say. Whilst 'polling' points us to something utterly seismic, history not so much, nor the real votes of May, nor indeed the real votes of the local by elections since the GE was called (albeit a very limited data set). We also have two of the MRPs within the last 2 weeks putting 150 to 200 firmly within range. Farage might have shifted that somewhat but Lab have also declined too. The more Labour to carry all becomes a narrative, the more the panicked natural Tories vote, see 1997 and 2001, both showing ELE all the way to polling day. Even at 19% with the first MRP, 72 seats were held, and thats with a big old Labour %. Unless the Tory vote starts to fold into Reform i think a stabilisation and old hens turnout to mid 20s and perhaps 28% or so is inevitable, and with that 150 seats plus, probaly 175 or so. The polling is making us confuse an utter humiliation losing 200 seats with glory. If they 'defend' all the 20k majorities thry are touching 100, all the 15ks and they are at 97 levels and above.......... We shall see
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
I think your wife is being very unfair on Ed Davey there - when it comes to Ed's testimony I expect he will be throwing very civil servants into the mix for not providing accurate information to him (now on one level that may be unfair but he was a newly elected MP thrust into a ministerial position without training and I expect that lack of familiarity was used against him to hide embarrassing facts).
Alan Bates is local to us and as a customer she knew him and is very much on the side of the SPM 's and Davey has not helped her attitude towards him with his 'clowning' around on water
The fact you know Davey is clowning around tells me he's having a brilliant campaign because he's getting news coverage that would not otherwise be being given.
Whoever designed the Lib Dems campaign knew they had to perform miracles to get coverage and his stunts have ensured he gets the last word most evenings - without those stunts I doubt they would be on the news at all...
Edit and I doubt your wife would have ever voted for the Lib Dems so the loss is a grand total of zero votes lost in a seat they won't win compared to a few (100,10s of thousands across the country)
France seems to be the perfect example of what you get when the mainstream Conservatives go down the plughole. Or Holland. Or the USA, within the Republican Party.
It’s not that millions of right wing voters suddenly see the light and become left liberals. Rather, they radicalise.
Well yes and no. Le Pen and RN have tacked centrally to build support, jetisoning the anti-semitism and becoming more pro-EU. Le Pen even chucked out her father, a move that makes Starmers shunning of Corbyn rather pale into insignificance.
It's not a party that I would vote for, but neither is it the party that it was.
Le Pen belongs to the phenomenon I invented yesterday: the serious, brooding, intense female right wing populist. In contrast to the gobby, clownish male right wing populist lout. 2 breeds. Will be interesting to see how they get on in power. I can’t see Le Pen or Meloni having a huge amount of time for Trump, but I may be mistaken.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
I think your wife is being very unfair on Ed Davey there - when it comes to Ed's testimony I expect he will be throwing very civil servants into the mix for not providing accurate information to him (now on one level that may be unfair but he was a newly elected MP thrust into a ministerial position without training and I expect that lack of familiarity was used against him to hide embarrassing facts).
Yes, if you read Nick Wallis's excellent book on the scandal you will probably reach the same conclusion I have. Davey was certainly no worse than most of the Ministers for the Post Office, and possible even a fraction better. This is I think (Sir) Alan Bates' view. It's certainly one I've put up here often enough.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
I think your wife is being very unfair on Ed Davey there - when it comes to Ed's testimony I expect he will be throwing very civil servants into the mix for not providing accurate information to him (now on one level that may be unfair but he was a newly elected MP thrust into a ministerial position without training and I expect that lack of familiarity was used against him to hide embarrassing facts).
Alan Bates is local to us and as a customer she knew him and is very much on the side of the SPM 's and Davey has not helped her attitude towards him with his 'clowning' around on water
I'm not going to attack. People make choices for various reasons, and we do not know your wife and would not presume to know her views.
I am not surprised that Davey's campaigning has put some people off. In defence of the strategy, without the clowning he would not have been given the visibility for voters like your wife to have an opinion on.
As for yourself, vote for whatever you like. Your specific Tory candidate is about as far away from you as its possible to get. We know that, you know that. But if you want to set aside all that you have been saying on here for the last few years and vote for that anyway, please go right ahead.
Labour will win the seat regardless. So a vote for Millar isn't a vote to save the Tory party from people like Millar. He is out. Its a vote for "can I justify how I have voted". People hold their nose. I've done it. But it doesn't make you feel good. And as its futile, why bother?
I completely disagree with this header. Would I rather have the centre right represented by the current Conservative party, for all its faults and despite losing its way, or Reform?
You only have to ask the question to see how absurd the proposition is.
It also ignores the fact that the party has mainly lost its way because of the siren call of the fantasies and bigotry of Reform.
The lesson they need to learn from this hammering (and, of course, the failure of Reform to actually win seats) is that this has been a trip into a wilderness devoid of votes. If they want to win they need to get back to the centre, they need to ignore this absurd gender rubbish and all the other Trumpian memes, they need to focus on competence and the proper use of public funds and they need to concentrate on what is good for all of the UK, not just narrow segments that might vote for them.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.
Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.
It is a scenario! The death of the UK polling industry where every pollster including the ones employed by parties for private polls get it completely wrong.
It goes beyond polling - parties also have canvass returns to guide them. In your scenario the Tories are doing MUCH better than the headlines suggest. And yet when we look at what the Tories are doing, it demonstrates that if anything the polls aren't showing enough of a rout.
If Tory last time voters were Tory this time, we would know. Tory activists are knocking doors and making calls. That data gets fed into their model alongside their own polling. And sets the direction for the campaign.
Sunak is being sent in to defend True Blue seats with 20k majorities. Ministers are pushing lines to not give Labour a super majority. Are saying its OK to put Farage on Tory leaflets. Are desperately pitching to their core vote.
They would not be doing any of those things if your scenario was in play. There could be an abrupt plot twist - at the last a few million decide to vote Tory after all. But that is hopium. It isn't rooted in reality.
So it could happen. It just very certainly won't.
My point is that a 150-200 seat outcome for Labour or Conservative is traditionally a very bad result. You don’t need the hype of the last few days to still have a monumentally bad result.
Having spent the last few decades, I’ve learned that Tory voters turn out on election day and should not be underestimated.
I would be delighted if that were not the case. The Tories will do badly, but I would be surprised if the result lives up to the hype.
The local election results would, I think, point to a result at around the ~200 seat mark. Very bad, but slightly better than 1997.
However, Sunak's campaign has so far been weaker than Major's.
I have shied away from making a prediction, but with 19 days to go I will now do so. I agree to a large extent with Jonathan. The shambling blue hordes of the Tory vote will turn out in sufficient numbers to stave off ELE. It will, in large part, be a vote against Labour, a reflex, a habit, a vote for the local candidate rather than for the leader or the government. But many will still, reluctantly, turn out.
Similarly, Labour voters will, to an extent, evaporate like the morning dew. Victory, seemingly inevitable, will not require everyone to add their nail to the coffin, and so reasons for other votes, or not voting will be found.
My predicted vote (seat) shares: CON 29% (205) LAB 38% (355) LDM 14% (45) GRN 4% (2) RFM 9% (2) 23 other British seats and 18 for NI. I'll put a full entry together for Farooq's competition soon too.
Important post. The locals were real votes, not polls and are a useful counter balance. My impression is that the Tory position has weakened a little since May, but not as much as the hype.
There is an awful lot of sense in what you and Lost Password say. Whilst 'polling' points us to something utterly seismic, history not so much, nor the real votes of May, nor indeed the real votes of the local by elections since the GE was called (albeit a very limited data set). We also have two of the MRPs within the last 2 weeks putting 150 to 200 firmly within range. Farage might have shifted that somewhat but Lab have also declined too. The more Labour to carry all bevomes a narrative, the more the panicked natural Tories vote, see 1997 and 2001, both showing ELE all the way to polling day. Even at 19% with the first MRP, 72 seats were held, and thats with a big old Labour %. Unless the Tory vote starts to fold into Reform i think a stabilisation and old hens turnout to mid 20s and perhaps 28% or so is inevitable, and with that 150 seats plus, probaly 175 or so. The polling is naking us confuse an utter humiliatiomn losing 200 seats with glory. If they 'defend' all the 20k majoroties thry are touching 100, all the 15ks and they are at 97 levels and above.......... We shall see
Seismic shifts and hype generate clicks and sell newspaper advertisements. There is a whole industry devoted to sensationalism.
On a site such as this we need a counterpoint. Whilst the election will undoubtedly be a change, it may well be a little more boring than the headline writers and commentators might have us believe.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
That is the great unknown - I mentioned that the Reform manifesto has mutually exclusive items within it but how do you explain that to people who won't listen and have been told that what others say is lies....
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
You deal with the root causes that make people willing to listen to them. Go back and read the article I wrote on PB about the collapse of the American middle classes over the last 30 years and how that led directly to the Trump phenomena.
Politicians around the world have spent to long deciding what is best for the population instead of asking what it is they actually want and need. So people are no longer willing to support them and will instead look at the snake oil salesman because at least he pretends to understand them.
I don't think the Tories must be destroyed to learn a lesson or whatever, and I think might regret doing it. Later.
For now I think enough do want it or are excited to see it they are not thinking of what it could mean for a massive labour majority or what the opposition coukd become.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
I read someone say the right splits after getting power, the left splits before getting power.
I don't think it's true, but it was an amusing idea.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.
Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.
It is a scenario! The death of the UK polling industry where every pollster including the ones employed by parties for private polls get it completely wrong.
It goes beyond polling - parties also have canvass returns to guide them. In your scenario the Tories are doing MUCH better than the headlines suggest. And yet when we look at what the Tories are doing, it demonstrates that if anything the polls aren't showing enough of a rout.
If Tory last time voters were Tory this time, we would know. Tory activists are knocking doors and making calls. That data gets fed into their model alongside their own polling. And sets the direction for the campaign.
Sunak is being sent in to defend True Blue seats with 20k majorities. Ministers are pushing lines to not give Labour a super majority. Are saying its OK to put Farage on Tory leaflets. Are desperately pitching to their core vote.
They would not be doing any of those things if your scenario was in play. There could be an abrupt plot twist - at the last a few million decide to vote Tory after all. But that is hopium. It isn't rooted in reality.
So it could happen. It just very certainly won't.
My point is that a 150-200 seat outcome for Labour or Conservative is traditionally a very bad result. You don’t need the hype of the last few days to still have a monumentally bad result.
Having spent the last few decades, I’ve learned that Tory voters turn out on election day and should not be underestimated.
I would be delighted if that were not the case. The Tories will do badly, but I would be surprised if the result lives up to the hype.
The local election results would, I think, point to a result at around the ~200 seat mark. Very bad, but slightly better than 1997.
However, Sunak's campaign has so far been weaker than Major's.
I have shied away from making a prediction, but with 19 days to go I will now do so. I agree to a large extent with Jonathan. The shambling blue hordes of the Tory vote will turn out in sufficient numbers to stave off ELE. It will, in large part, be a vote against Labour, a reflex, a habit, a vote for the local candidate rather than for the leader or the government. But many will still, reluctantly, turn out.
Similarly, Labour voters will, to an extent, evaporate like the morning dew. Victory, seemingly inevitable, will not require everyone to add their nail to the coffin, and so reasons for other votes, or not voting will be found.
My predicted vote (seat) shares: CON 29% (205) LAB 38% (355) LDM 14% (45) GRN 4% (2) RFM 9% (2) 23 other British seats and 18 for NI. I'll put a full entry together for Farooq's competition soon too.
Important post. The locals were real votes, not polls and are a useful counter balance. My impression is that the Tory position has weakened a little since May, but not as much as the hype.
There is an awful lot of sense in what you and Lost Password say. Whilst 'polling' points us to something utterly seismic, history not so much, nor the real votes of May, nor indeed the real votes of the local by elections since the GE was called (albeit a very limited data set). We also have two of the MRPs within the last 2 weeks putting 150 to 200 firmly within range. Farage might have shifted that somewhat but Lab have also declined too. The more Labour to carry all bevomes a narrative, the more the panicked natural Tories vote, see 1997 and 2001, both showing ELE all the way to polling day. Even at 19% with the first MRP, 72 seats were held, and thats with a big old Labour %. Unless the Tory vote starts to fold into Reform i think a stabilisation and old hens turnout to mid 20s and perhaps 28% or so is inevitable, and with that 150 seats plus, probaly 175 or so. The polling is naking us confuse an utter humiliatiomn losing 200 seats with glory. If they 'defend' all the 20k majoroties thry are touching 100, all the 15ks and they are at 97 levels and above.......... We shall see
Seismic shifts and hype generate clicks and sell newspaper advertisements. There is a whole industry devoted to sensationalism.
On a site such as this we need a counterpoint. Whilst the election will undoubtedly be a change, it may well be a little more boring than the headline writers and commentators might have us believe.
Yes, agreed. And the breathlessness of the great destruction etc is very much a product of modrrn social media etc, out in the non obsessed world the tribal vote is still the tribal vote, the dislike of x, y and z still there to inform voting and change is something to be delivered, in the usual way, without hyperbole. There is no tidal wave. There is no enthusiasm.
I'll start with my firmest opinion, the Conservative party will not be destroyed at this election even if they end up with less than 100 seats. why?
Party Machinery: They still have a significant amount of party machinery to help rebuild, They had over 5000 local councillors as of the May local elections, making them the second largest party of local government. Even after losing nearly half their councillors in May they are still there and the LibDems are still a long way off catching them and Reform have a total of 10 seats..
The Brand As stated in the header, there's still significant and valuable IP in the Conservative party/ in some shape or form the brand of the Conservative Party is still one that, with the right people in charge, can be made more popular. Look at the work that David Cameron did after the 2005 defeat, he dragged them a long way to get them back as a 'centre right' party. As I said above there are a lot of local councillors still and for each of them there are a lot of people willing to vote for them.
I said above that the Conservative Party will not be destroyed at this election but could it be at the next? It really depends on who is there to replace them.
Reform can, are and will take a significant portion of the right of the party. that could continue or accelerate if a moderate is elected the next leader The LibDems could take a portion of the left of the party, I expect this to accelerate if a leader of the far right of the party is elected and a merger with Reform is proposed. The thing is though, there's not many of them left now.
if there is a new center right, rather than far right, alternative to a merged Con/Ref then it could make inroads but not enough to win seats.
My expectation is a record defeat but recoverable at this election, with a useless but far right new leader forced to merge with Reform. If Farage is elected in Clacton, I'm still doubtful of that, he'll end up as leader. This'll lead the Conservatives to become the UK version of the GOP.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left have a rather unfortunate record for penalising/hurting others by the million in a futile utopian attempt to make their favoured group gets enough to be happy.
The key difference is that they persecute on class rather than race/tribe grounds, but they are two sides of the same coin.
Humans though seem to be pre wired to defer to "leadership classes" and favour their own tribe which enables the far right to harness base instinct in a way that the far left cannot.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
I disagree either most of what James has written here.
I would like you see the Tory party destroyed, just as I would like to see the Labour Party destroyed.
I would like to see the Lib Dems squished into nothingness as well - destroyed is too powerful a word for such an insignificant bunch of non entities.
And I don't want Farage anywhere near power either.
But James' fundamental mistake is thinking the parties dictate how people vote. They do not. Get rid of the Tories an the Right will still be split pretty evenly between those of Cameroon tendency and the Faragistas. Get rid of the Labour Party and the Left will still be split fairly evenly between the Social Democrats and the Corbynistas.
Thinking a new centre right party will sweep away the threat of Farage or that the Starmerite Labour Party has buried the Corbynite threat is just wishful thinking. It is the exact mistake Macron has made in France and why we face the real and horrible prospect of a Le Pen presidency.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
OK then. What do the public want that governments aren't delivering?
Because I suspect that a lot of the shopping list is pairs of things where you can have one or the other but not both. Better public services and lower taxes is only the most blatant example.
An honest politician up against a fluent shyster will always struggle there, because it takes five minutes to demolish a five second slogan. And whilst the shysters tend to be thrown out next time (as we're seeing), that takes five years and their poison remains.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Disappointing Big_G. I always suspected you'd crumble.
Twice in a row, at least we now know for certain that everything he posts between elections can be ignored.
You seem very bitter but then I expected it but at least I provided an explanation and the fact my wife thinks Ed Davey is a clown probably hurt most
You’re a straw in the wind, and from a betting perspective a warning for us not to get too carried away with the latest polls, since there are tons of people who will simply always vote Conservative regardless of how low they sink or whatever bad things they do.
It’s just that the others don’t post their opinions for months on end on the country’s premier political discussion forum and expect their views to be taken seriously.
My declaration to vote Lib Dem was a result of Sunak's behaviour over D day just a couple of weeks ago not months ago and before I mentioned it to my wife
It was only yesterday I told her and her reaction was one of dismay as she simply sees Davey as a clown and rightly or wrongly is unimpressed with his treatment of Alan Bates
In these circumstances we have made a joint decision and I decided to be honest and upfront on here and expected a hostile response from some
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
I think your wife is being very unfair on Ed Davey there - when it comes to Ed's testimony I expect he will be throwing very civil servants into the mix for not providing accurate information to him (now on one level that may be unfair but he was a newly elected MP thrust into a ministerial position without training and I expect that lack of familiarity was used against him to hide embarrassing facts).
Alan Bates is local to us and as a customer she knew him and is very much on the side of the SPM 's and Davey has not helped her attitude towards him with his 'clowning' around on water
I'm not going to attack. People make choices for various reasons, and we do not know your wife and would not presume to know her views.
I am not surprised that Davey's campaigning has put some people off. In defence of the strategy, without the clowning he would not have been given the visibility for voters like your wife to have an opinion on.
As for yourself, vote for whatever you like. Your specific Tory candidate is about as far away from you as its possible to get. We know that, you know that. But if you want to set aside all that you have been saying on here for the last few years and vote for that anyway, please go right ahead.
Labour will win the seat regardless. So a vote for Millar isn't a vote to save the Tory party from people like Millar. He is out. Its a vote for "can I justify how I have voted". People hold their nose. I've done it. But it doesn't make you feel good. And as its futile, why bother?
BigG has a postal vote so it's almost easier to vote then not bothering.
I suspect if they didn't have a postal vote they wouldn't be bothering...
France seems to be the perfect example of what you get when the mainstream Conservatives go down the plughole. Or Holland. Or the USA, within the Republican Party.
It’s not that millions of right wing voters suddenly see the light and become left liberals. Rather, they radicalise.
Well yes and no. Le Pen and RN have tacked centrally to build support, jetisoning the anti-semitism and becoming more pro-EU. Le Pen even chucked out her father, a move that makes Starmers shunning of Corbyn rather pale into insignificance.
It's not a party that I would vote for, but neither is it the party that it was.
Sure, but Les Republicans were still closer to the centre ground.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
No. Both want to penalise and hurt others. They just differ in their targets.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
That is the great unknown - I mentioned that the Reform manifesto has mutually exclusive items within it but how do you explain that to people who won't listen and have been told that what others say is lies....
I've missed the manifesto? I must get on that.
Policies are good to have but this election even more than most seems built on vague vibes.
Time for change is the feeling, as if the Labour manifesto saying the word 500 times was not clear, and at least in polling people are taking that as far as Tory extinction levels.
Will contradictions or lack of substance prevent that? I'd call it 50/50.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
I think your wife is being very unfair on Ed Davey there - when it comes to Ed's testimony I expect he will be throwing very civil servants into the mix for not providing accurate information to him (now on one level that may be unfair but he was a newly elected MP thrust into a ministerial position without training and I expect that lack of familiarity was used against him to hide embarrassing facts).
Alan Bates is local to us and as a customer she knew him and is very much on the side of the SPM 's and Davey has not helped her attitude towards him with his 'clowning' around on water
The fact you know Davey is clowning around tells me he's having a brilliant campaign because he's getting news coverage that would not otherwise be being given.
Whoever designed the Lib Dems campaign knew they had to perform miracles to get coverage and his stunts have ensured he gets the last word most evenings - without those stunts I doubt they would be on the news at all...
Edit and I doubt your wife would have ever voted for the Lib Dems so the loss is a grand total of zero votes lost in a seat they won't win compared to a few (100,10s of thousands across the country)
Actually her friend some decades ago was a Lib Dem and she voted for her on several occasions
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
I think the difference is that the far left know we're a minority which brings good things like a sense of perspective and realism but some not so good things like feeling we're left because we've thought more or care more which isn't really true but they are comfortable tales to tell about ourselves.
The far right seem to think they are the majority, they are fed that comfortable lie by a media eager to push a right-wing agenda (almost like they get more money if the right wing are in control). This makes them think that anyone else being in charge is somehow cheating and they get angry about it.
I don't think the Tories must be destroyed to learn a lesson or whatever, and I think might regret doing it. Later.
For now I think enough do want it or are excited to see it they are not thinking of what it could mean for a massive labour majority or what the opposition coukd become.
Kle, any majority over about fifty gives the Government a clear run with its policies. Even the most optimistic Conservative supporters accept Starmer is going to have something much larger, upwards of 150 in all probability. So a vote aimed at moderating it is a bit hard to fathom.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
Morning everyone.
I agree with your point above, because I do tend to think PB often has something of a blind spot as to the causes of a phenomenon like Corbyn. I think that's because PB does tend to default to the cautiously technocratic, and somewhat fiscally conservative centre-right, regarding that as the Centre. There is still a very interesting range of views on here, though, generally tolerantly expressed.
An honest politician up against a fluent shyster will always struggle there, because it takes five minutes to demolish a five second slogan. And whilst the shysters tend to be thrown out next time (as we're seeing), that takes five years and their poison remains.
Comments
I suppose the question is does he propose dodgy solutions because he's a bit dim, because he's very dodgy or because of some combination thereof?
And I also didn't like it's vindictive tone, I'm afraid.
Important to stay off the koolaid and be careful what one wishes for.
Again, the *Tory Party* believe the polls and the canvass returns which show they are sliding towards the abyss. We know this by their actions. So "we've decided to vote Tory" shock is likely not a shock. Already assumed and priced in.
However:
It really, really, really could happen
Yes, it really, really, really could happen...
Just let them go
You can now only stand in one constituency.
We reject Farage totally and if he polls higher than the conservatives then the thought of a Farage led conservative party is unacceptable and in a very small way our vote for the conservatives is our attempt to try to keep the party out of his hands
If Ref end up down on 6% in July, still triple what they got last time, and most of that goes back to Conservative with a percentage or two to Labour (and some assumptions on Scotland / minor parties), we get the following on EC:
CON 32.0% 200
LAB 42.0% 377
LIB 12.0% 28
Reform 6.0% 2
Green 3.0% 1
SNP 3.3% 19
Much more realistic, and in line with my PB prediction. Still a Boris 19 / Thatcher 83 style majority.
Has Ed Davey resigned yet?
You will say "my returns disagree" when I point out that internal polls and canvass returns must agree with the published polls, otherwise your leader would be out campaigning not in 25k majority seats.
There will be a place for a conservative party in our politics. We remember having one in the recent past, and look forward to its rebirth from the ashes of today's English nationalist party
The answer to populism (left or right) is to come up with different answers to the questions they ask and the problems they raise. Not flat denial of problems - which has been the political class response to many issues.
Probably I like him because he is Tory and the good stuff he has done is undoubtedly Tory stuff.
So there is a case study on how Never Tory Again bloviators drift back into the fold.
We see it in all parties when they are up against it.
This kind of inertia is real and will play out across the country. What people say to pollsters in the heat of a scandal is not necessarily how they vote on the day.
Never underestimate the conservatives.
And "all the new converts" are added to those of us who've been arguing for it for years.
You wishes are noted, but that's all they are.
Brand name destruction : The title 'Conservative' disappears and we are treated to the same thing but different name. (Townsend Thoresen)
Name continuity: Nothing remains of the current set up but the name 'Conservative' continues as one of the top two parties, with continuity of assets (Manchester United 1900 to Manchester United now)
Destruction destruction: The name goes, the people go, the assets go, and 'Forward Together' or 'For England and St George' parties take their place.
Some sort of 'name continuity' is the most likely, but what rough beast will be slouching towards Westminster is unclear. Betting prediction: It will keep PB busy for some time.
Though it is still possible that at Lab34, Con 25 sort of result will mean destruction is delayed.
Would be a great student prank, if some friendly rich donor would put up the deposits and provide the costumes.
It's why UKIP/BXP/REFUK have always failed at FPTP elections. They have a hugh floor but a low ceiling. Farage is a rabble rouser not an organiser.
However, Sunak's campaign has so far been weaker than Major's.
I have shied away from making a prediction, but with 19 days to go I will now do so. I agree to a large extent with Jonathan. The shambling blue hordes of the Tory vote will turn out in sufficient numbers to stave off ELE. It will, in large part, be a vote against Labour, a reflex, a habit, a vote for the local candidate rather than for the leader or the government. But many will still, reluctantly, turn out.
Similarly, Labour voters will, to an extent, evaporate like the morning dew. Victory, seemingly inevitable, will not require everyone to add their nail to the coffin, and so reasons for other votes, or not voting will be found.
My predicted vote (seat) shares:
CON 29% (205)
LAB 38% (355)
LDM 14% (45)
GRN 4% (2)
RFM 9% (2)
23 other British seats and 18 for NI.
I'll put a full entry together for Farooq's competition soon too.
If it weren't for FPTP, the answer would be pretty easy. There's crudely three ways of being right of centre. The old wets (who don't really have a party right now), the mainstream right (roughly May or Sunak only with better political antennae) and the populist nationalists (which is where Reform are). Keep them in one tent, it's a formidable force. Scatter them, as has happened, and the political map ends up with as much red as TimS's weather forecast.
So what's next? If @jamesdoyle's splendid header is right, all that is left is the brand.The wets and the beyond dries can't stand being in the same party any more. It's better that Mummy and Daddy don't live together.
But only one of Reform Plus and (let's say) Liberal Unionist can survive in FPTP. Look at Canada. RefCan had a stronger base than RefUK and never rose above being the principal opposition. And the main point is simple. A party that throws up three duff PMs in succession, a fraud then a nutter then a nobody, is going to need a heck of a relaunch before people listen to them again.
And in the meantime, the other lot win by default.
I expected this response but when you have just celebrated 60 years marriage we discuss and come to agreement on lots of things and this is just a minor one
1. Farage is one of these operators who does big picture. Don't worry about the detail, just slap the paint down.
2. Farage knows that many millions of voters are politically clueless. They don't understand how anything works because the system actively discourages people from trying to find out. So the stuff that has the informed out in horror sounds appealing if you don't know.
Again again, voters are not as stupid as politicians think. But there are a long list of things that all of us do not know in any detail. And voters like Farage set out to exploit those unknown unknowns to paint a Big Picture with a clear message and a simple solution. With a dash of "they won't let us" on the side.
Meanwhile the discourse was “if you question x, you are a Le Pen supporter”. Which became recruitment tool for them.
Macron half pulled things back - but he and his party are very much a one-man band.
First, let's consider what the punters are predicting. Betfair is a better guide here than the spread firms, although there isn't a huge gap between the two. I'd say the Exchanges are implying about 90 Tory seats. Baxter suggests 80 but I'd go with Betfair. So that puts us in your 'wipeout' territory.
Now I must add my own two-pennywoth and say that I think we are in uncharted waters. It is like no other GE I can recall. Those voters who have not already made up their minds are unpredictable. This could have a dramatic effect on the nature of post-GE events. If that thought nurtures some hope in the hearts of its supporters, Conservatives should be aware that there is no reason to suppose the uncertainty will be resolved in their favour. Things could get worse, much worse. I agree with James that the central issue of the next PM and Government is already decided. If this feeling is widespread, it may well liberate voters in the sense they feel at ease with voting for whatever Party their views most align with, rather than voting to pick a Leader and Government. Or they may vote frivolously, or not at all. Hard to tell in such uncharted teritory. All I would say is that as a punter, I am betting tentatively. Yes, we are looking at a Labour majority for sure, but outside that mundane observation, almost anything could happen.
What then of the James's classical question? I'm not sure the wholesale destruction of the Tory Party would be such a great thing. Personally I would love to see a new Conservative Party arise from the ashes and breathe fresh life into centre-right politics, or at least provide a decent alternative to Labour. But I am pessimistic. Why?
Look up Electoral College and scan through the names of the Con survivors in the event of Baxter's latest prediction of 80 seats coming true. The more prominent and influential names I note include: - Leadsome, Francois, Patel,Barclay, Badenoch, Trott, Chope (sic), Williamson (!), and Nokes.
If that 's going to be the nucleus of the New Conservative Party, then the sooner and more comprehensively Carthago Delenda Est the better.
We all do it from time to time. I stuck with Labour during the dark days to save it for this moment. I get it. Inertia is a big force in British politics.
That explains it.
What I object to is all the self-deluding nonsense that you have posted here, for months on end, now for two elections running.
Don’t expect anyone to take you seriously, in future.
I'd just sold them beneath 17.5% at Ladbrokes for 5/6 (boosted).
My voting is as follows at General Elections,
Tory, Tory, Referendum, Tory, Tory Tory, UKIP, Tory Tory.
My heart is to vote Reform but my head is to do the unthinkable and vote Labour as Labour are the incumbent (sort of) and have the best chance of defeating the Conservatives.
I want to see the near extinction of them. They are not honourable. They have lied and lied to us. For example on immigration. They lied, not for honourable reasons but to get cheap labour for sweatshops and short term profits for their mates rather than the hard work of training enough people, reforming benefits so that work pays (throwing away IDS and the Coalitions work) and supporting getting those on a benefits lifestyle back into work and a worthwhile life.
Meanwhile house prices and rents soar as far more people are being imported than our housing stock can support and our infrastructure and public services collapses for the same reasons.
It’s not that millions of right wing voters suddenly see the light and become left liberals. Rather, they radicalise.
Personally I feel this is a 'roll the dice' moment and I am happy to see the dice rolled - I cannot believe an extreme right-wing party will ever win power in the UK, so let's shake it up and see what happens.
However, I am pretty sure the Tories will salvage a 1997-style defeat from this GE and stumble on, much as I would wish it otherwise.
I think your wife is being very unfair on Ed Davey there - when it comes to Ed's testimony I expect he will be throwing very civil servants into the mix for not providing accurate information to him (now on one level that may be unfair but he was a newly elected MP thrust into a ministerial position without training and I expect that lack of familiarity was used against him to hide embarrassing facts).
Just on polling and canvas returns perhaps. If the polls are wrong and Tory canvassing shows its much better than the headlines, why is Sunak campaigning almost entirely in 25k majority seats?
Does that not indicate by his actions that the polls are right? Whether they are vindictive or not?
I know what electoral wipeout is like. 2019 local elections. We got utterly demolished in Thornaby by the independents. I don't recall angrily blaming the voters or indeed our own polling returns suggesting this would happen. You get what you vote for - and sometimes the vote is for someone else. Such is politics!
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
It's not a party that I would vote for, but neither is it the party that it was.
The rationale in a safe seat is likely very different to rationale in a seat up for a change. A few movements to consider:
Red Wall Tories appear to be going back to Labour or to Reform. Expect the likes of Jacob Young to come 3rd.
Blue Wall Tories appear to be going LD. Hunt knows it.
Elsewhere? The Reform modal shift is underway. If you lean that way in the Tory vote - and most do it would appear - then a vote for Farage IS a Conservative vote. For the Conservative Party you actually want.
That pull will prove to be irresistible for so many.
It’s just that the others don’t post their opinions for months on end on the country’s premier political discussion forum and expect their views to be taken seriously.
I would like you see the Tory party destroyed, just as I would like to see the Labour Party destroyed.
I would like to see the Lib Dems squished into nothingness as well - destroyed is too powerful a word for such an insignificant bunch of non entities.
And I don't want Farage anywhere near power either.
But James' fundamental mistake is thinking the parties dictate how people vote. They do not. Get rid of the Tories an the Right will still be split pretty evenly between those of Cameroon tendency and the Faragistas. Get rid of the Labour Party and the Left will still be split fairly evenly between the Social Democrats and the Corbynistas.
Thinking a new centre right party will sweep away the threat of Farage or that the Starmerite Labour Party has buried the Corbynite threat is just wishful thinking. It is the exact mistake Macron has made in France and why we face the real and horrible prospect of a Le Pen presidency.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
But this and other posts this morning are exactly the sort of thing that explains why the Conservative Party non est delenda.
But it would, I think, if you took an attack on the Conservative Party personally.
I'm with PtP upthread. In the circumstances, it would be best if the party were destroyed - but my opinion doesn't really count in the matter.
Yes politicians are human beings but people want those who might take big decisions (like taking us to war) to be serious people
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
Even at 19% with the first MRP, 72 seats were held, and thats with a big old Labour %.
Unless the Tory vote starts to fold into Reform i think a stabilisation and old hens turnout to mid 20s and perhaps 28% or so is inevitable, and with that 150 seats plus, probaly 175 or so.
The polling is making us confuse an utter humiliation losing 200 seats with glory. If they 'defend' all the 20k majorities thry are touching 100, all the 15ks and they are at 97 levels and above..........
We shall see
Whoever designed the Lib Dems campaign knew they had to perform miracles to get coverage and his stunts have ensured he gets the last word most evenings - without those stunts I doubt they would be on the news at all...
Edit and I doubt your wife would have ever voted for the Lib Dems so the loss is a grand total of zero votes lost in a seat they won't win compared to a few (100,10s of thousands across the country)
I am not surprised that Davey's campaigning has put some people off. In defence of the strategy, without the clowning he would not have been given the visibility for voters like your wife to have an opinion on.
As for yourself, vote for whatever you like. Your specific Tory candidate is about as far away from you as its possible to get. We know that, you know that. But if you want to set aside all that you have been saying on here for the last few years and vote for that anyway, please go right ahead.
Labour will win the seat regardless. So a vote for Millar isn't a vote to save the Tory party from people like Millar. He is out. Its a vote for "can I justify how I have voted". People hold their nose. I've done it. But it doesn't make you feel good. And as its futile, why bother?
You only have to ask the question to see how absurd the proposition is.
It also ignores the fact that the party has mainly lost its way because of the siren call of the fantasies and bigotry of Reform.
The lesson they need to learn from this hammering (and, of course, the failure of Reform to actually win seats) is that this has been a trip into a wilderness devoid of votes. If they want to win they need to get back to the centre, they need to ignore this absurd gender rubbish and all the other Trumpian memes, they need to focus on competence and the proper use of public funds and they need to concentrate on what is good for all of the UK, not just narrow segments that might vote for them.
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
On a site such as this we need a counterpoint. Whilst the election will undoubtedly be a change, it may well be a little more boring than the headline writers and commentators might have us believe.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
Politicians around the world have spent to long deciding what is best for the population instead of asking what it is they actually want and need. So people are no longer willing to support them and will instead look at the snake oil salesman because at least he pretends to understand them.
For now I think enough do want it or are excited to see it they are not thinking of what it could mean for a massive labour majority or what the opposition coukd become.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
I don't think it's true, but it was an amusing idea.
There is no tidal wave. There is no enthusiasm.
Party Machinery:
They still have a significant amount of party machinery to help rebuild, They had over 5000 local councillors as of the May local elections, making them the second largest party of local government. Even after losing nearly half their councillors in May they are still there and the LibDems are still a long way off catching them and Reform have a total of 10 seats..
The Brand
As stated in the header, there's still significant and valuable IP in the Conservative party/ in some shape or form the brand of the Conservative Party is still one that, with the right people in charge, can be made more popular. Look at the work that David Cameron did after the 2005 defeat, he dragged them a long way to get them back as a 'centre right' party. As I said above there are a lot of local councillors still and for each of them there are a lot of people willing to vote for them.
I said above that the Conservative Party will not be destroyed at this election but could it be at the next? It really depends on who is there to replace them.
Reform can, are and will take a significant portion of the right of the party. that could continue or accelerate if a moderate is elected the next leader
The LibDems could take a portion of the left of the party, I expect this to accelerate if a leader of the far right of the party is elected and a merger with Reform is proposed. The thing is though, there's not many of them left now.
if there is a new center right, rather than far right, alternative to a merged Con/Ref then it could make inroads but not enough to win seats.
My expectation is a record defeat but recoverable at this election, with a useless but far right new leader forced to merge with Reform. If Farage is elected in Clacton, I'm still doubtful of that, he'll end up as leader. This'll lead the Conservatives to become the UK version of the GOP.
The key difference is that they persecute on class rather than race/tribe grounds, but they are two sides of the same coin.
Humans though seem to be pre wired to defer to "leadership classes" and favour their own tribe which enables the far right to harness base instinct in a way that the far left cannot.
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/insight-and-analysis/blogs/comparing-nhs-to-health-care-systems-other-countries
Because I suspect that a lot of the shopping list is pairs of things where you can have one or the other but not both. Better public services and lower taxes is only the most blatant example.
An honest politician up against a fluent shyster will always struggle there, because it takes five minutes to demolish a five second slogan. And whilst the shysters tend to be thrown out next time (as we're seeing), that takes five years and their poison remains.
It was only yesterday I told her and her reaction was one of dismay as she simply sees Davey as a clown and rightly or wrongly is unimpressed with his treatment of Alan Bates
In these circumstances we have made a joint decision and I decided to be honest and upfront on here and expected a hostile response from some
I suspect if they didn't have a postal vote they wouldn't be bothering...
Policies are good to have but this election even more than most seems built on vague vibes.
Time for change is the feeling, as if the Labour manifesto saying the word 500 times was not clear, and at least in polling people are taking that as far as Tory extinction levels.
Will contradictions or lack of substance prevent that? I'd call it 50/50.
Would still be an epic hammering of course.
The far right seem to think they are the majority, they are fed that comfortable lie by a media eager to push a right-wing agenda (almost like they get more money if the right wing are in control). This makes them think that anyone else being in charge is somehow cheating and they get angry about it.
I agree with your point above, because I do tend to think PB often has something of a blind spot as to the causes of a phenomenon like Corbyn. I think that's because PB does tend to default to the cautiously technocratic, and somewhat fiscally conservative centre-right, regarding that as the Centre. There is still a very interesting range of views on here, though, generally tolerantly expressed.