The Sun’s online election section is noticeably unhostile to Labour today. Biggest story is Wes Streeting’s “giving the matches back to the arsonists” attack on the Tories, Douglas Murray doing a piece on what happens after the Labour win and an article saying Starmer will freeze fuel duty in line with a Sun campaign and denials about tax rises.
The Sun will probably go cautious Labour with waffle about giving change a chance but warning that Labour need to stick to tax promises etc.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
The Sun’s online election section is noticeably unhostile to Labour today. Biggest story is Wes Streeting’s “giving the matches back to the arsonists” attack on the Tories, Douglas Murray doing a piece on what happens after the Labour win and an article saying Starmer will freeze fuel duty in line with a Sun campaign and denials about tax rises.
The Sun will probably go cautious Labour with waffle about giving change a chance but warning that Labour need to stick to tax promises etc.
Will be hilarious watching Harry Cole having to get all enthusiastic about Starmer
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
Not agreeing with you - for me your spouse is reacting to the surface factors not the more important underlying core, but thanks for dropping a pebble in the conversation pool this morning to make some ripples.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I don’t think he was being abusive. Big_G has himself been making a big thing about not voting Tory. Now he tells us he is voting Tory. That’s worthy of remark.
I think the snide ‘oh there’s a surprise’ stuff is totally unnecessary.
The rise of Farage, and particularly that opinion poll has rightly caused consternation for a lot of people.
I can totally understand why it has caused a shift.
And I don’t think this is an easy voting choice election. I make no secret of the fact that I want the Conservatives removed from office. I think they have lurched in a horrible rightwards direction back to being the Nasty Party. But, by heck, Farage’s Reform are a whole extra level of nastiness. I will vote LibDem tactically.
But, frankly, Starmer’s Labour are very centrist. I suspect that John Major would have sat perfectly happily in his Cabinet.
This is by far and away the most interesting election of my lifetime and it’s complex like none other.
I am now hoping that the Conservatives do okay and form the main Opposition, that they resist the right-ward lurch and return to the centre-right where they belong.
You think Sir John Major could have sat in a Cabinet committed to votes at 16, nationalisation of rail, taxes on public schools, diluting the green belt, banning more hunting, ending north sea oil, unspecified tax rises, and social controls like banning energy drinks under 16?
No, he wouldn’t, he’s a conservative. Absent his history he might not vote for this Tory platform (of course he will in reality), as a voter he might even compromise and vote for that lot like I expect to. But he wouldn’t be part of that Cabinet.
"In every single sphere of British influence, the upper echelons of power in 2013 are held overwhelmingly by the privately educated or the affluent middle class," he said.
"To me, from my background, I find that truly shocking."
He added: "I remember enough of my past to be outraged on behalf of the people abandoned when social mobility is lost... we need them to fly as high as their luck, their ability and their sheer hard graft can actually take them.
"And it is not going to happen magically."
And? Not a secret that he was in favour of the “classless society”. That was his big drive, and one I wholeheartedly supported.
If you can find a quote in which he wants to scrap public schools, rather than increase grants and bursaries then good luck.
Labour is not in favour of scrapping public schools either. I doubt VAT on private schools would be a hill to die on for him, he was collegiate and a believer in cabinet responsibility.
I think The Sun are going to sit it out. Say they’re not advocating a vote for Labour but they know they’ll win and wish them luck and they’ll keep an open mind.
The Sun’s online election section is noticeably unhostile to Labour today. Biggest story is Wes Streeting’s “giving the matches back to the arsonists” attack on the Tories, Douglas Murray doing a piece on what happens after the Labour win and an article saying Starmer will freeze fuel duty in line with a Sun campaign and denials about tax rises.
The Sun will probably go cautious Labour with waffle about giving change a chance but warning that Labour need to stick to tax promises etc.
Will be hilarious watching Harry Cole having to get all enthusiastic about Starmer
It would be but I don’t think it will be a warm endorsement but a very cautious acceptance Labour are the winners and deserve a chance but lots of warnings over taxes and “culture war” issues. Trevor Kavanagh will go into mourning and Harry Coke can spend five years criticising Labour so easy copy for him probably.
The Sun’s online election section is noticeably unhostile to Labour today. Biggest story is Wes Streeting’s “giving the matches back to the arsonists” attack on the Tories, Douglas Murray doing a piece on what happens after the Labour win and an article saying Starmer will freeze fuel duty in line with a Sun campaign and denials about tax rises.
The Sun will probably go cautious Labour with waffle about giving change a chance but warning that Labour need to stick to tax promises etc.
Will be hilarious watching Harry Cole having to get all enthusiastic about Starmer
I suspect it’ll be more like the brief period Brown retained their support after Blair. Lots of attacks on everything, and endless “campaigns” but support when they do as they are told.
The overall point is right though, the Sun will have to go Labour. I wonder if the Mail will stick with the Tories this time though? The Times will surely come out for Labour and the others are obvious.
The Sun’s online election section is noticeably unhostile to Labour today. Biggest story is Wes Streeting’s “giving the matches back to the arsonists” attack on the Tories, Douglas Murray doing a piece on what happens after the Labour win and an article saying Starmer will freeze fuel duty in line with a Sun campaign and denials about tax rises.
The Sun will probably go cautious Labour with waffle about giving change a chance but warning that Labour need to stick to tax promises etc.
Murdoch wants to back the winner so as I said weeks ago the Sun will eventually endorse Labour...
That being said, I think the unthinking right wing populism and blind tory loyalty is going to wither away with the boomers. The real question is: what will the millenials do with their new found electoral power?
They'll do what GenX tell them to do. It's our turn.
Gen X don't have the numbers... but guessing from the memes going around on tiktok and YouTube we do have a huge amount of credibility among the millenials...and what the millenials are saying g rings familiar to me.....it was like that
I think The Sun are going to sit it out. Say they’re not advocating a vote for Labour but they know they’ll win and wish them luck and they’ll keep an open mind.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I don’t think he was being abusive. Big_G has himself been making a big thing about not voting Tory. Now he tells us he is voting Tory. That’s worthy of remark.
I think the snide ‘oh there’s a surprise’ stuff is totally unnecessary.
The rise of Farage, and particularly that opinion poll has rightly caused consternation for a lot of people.
I can totally understand why it has caused a shift.
And I don’t think this is an easy voting choice election. I make no secret of the fact that I want the Conservatives removed from office. I think they have lurched in a horrible rightwards direction back to being the Nasty Party. But, by heck, Farage’s Reform are a whole extra level of nastiness. I will vote LibDem tactically.
But, frankly, Starmer’s Labour are very centrist. I suspect that John Major would have sat perfectly happily in his Cabinet.
This is by far and away the most interesting election of my lifetime and it’s complex like none other.
I am now hoping that the Conservatives do okay and form the main Opposition, that they resist the right-ward lurch and return to the centre-right where they belong.
You think Sir John Major could have sat in a Cabinet committed to votes at 16, nationalisation of rail, taxes on public schools, diluting the green belt, banning more hunting, ending north sea oil, unspecified tax rises, and social controls like banning energy drinks under 16?
No, he wouldn’t, he’s a conservative. Absent his history he might not vote for this Tory platform (of course he will in reality), as a voter he might even compromise and vote for that lot like I expect to. But he wouldn’t be part of that Cabinet.
"In every single sphere of British influence, the upper echelons of power in 2013 are held overwhelmingly by the privately educated or the affluent middle class," he said.
"To me, from my background, I find that truly shocking."
He added: "I remember enough of my past to be outraged on behalf of the people abandoned when social mobility is lost... we need them to fly as high as their luck, their ability and their sheer hard graft can actually take them.
"And it is not going to happen magically."
You know what's brilliant there?
The Holy Trinity of success: luck, ability and sheer hard graft.
I'm all for the last two of these being celebrated and rewarded. But the greatest of these is luck. Conservatives used to acknowledge that, and the duty to others that came with success. Now, to a very very large degree, they don't.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
I am probably not voting for Reform, and will probably vote for labour. But it would be quite good to get some more balanced commentary on 'reform'. One thing I would observe is that casually slandering them as if they were UKIP circa 2012 is not going to work and just creates free publicity for them. Because this sets off the following 'circuit/chain of events' amongst the intended audience - people reading the reform policies and think... "hmm actually they are not racist and they may actually be right about some things - and there is a massive establishment/mainstream media conspiracy against them - so lets drain the swamp!" This made me smile - the BBC 'fact checking' supposedly controversial statements by Nigel Farage and not really being able to fault what he said. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2998klx2y0o
Recommendation: If you want to beat the 'far right threat' you have to address their policies not just appealing to an assumption that they are fascist scum. IE how many prison places do they need to build for their tougher sentencing. Where are these military bases they are converting to prisons, etc. How are they going to do recruitment for health care, public services etc with net zero immigration.
I would also say that there isn't much between Reform and the Tories in terms of being 'far right'. I am remembering the 'windrush' deportations and the 'go home or be arrested' vans. Also the Rwanda policy. Surely this is all the same thing?
Some good points here. The reason populism is thriving is because it preys on a weak and self-preserving political class who are too meek and afraid to really have proper conversations with their electorates about the issues. It creates a vacuum, and into that vacuum step people like Farage promising easy fixes (which we all know are far from easy).
In this country, we desperately need the political class to start thinking about talking about areas that are outside their comfort zone. Things like immigration and asylum, but also how sustainable the current NHS model is (and what could replace it), how to revolutionise the education system to provide the skilled workforce of the future, etc. We need our politicians to be bolder, before snake oil salesmen move in and take over the pitch entirely.
Yes. But worth noticing that of our two traditional main parties, both of which project themselves in populist ways while in truth being aware that the actual world is both complex and compromised, it is the slightly less populist one that is going to win the election. They shall have to govern at least a bit better than the Tories, and may have some leeway to be more honest if they get a clear very victory.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I don’t think he was being abusive. Big_G has himself been making a big thing about not voting Tory. Now he tells us he is voting Tory. That’s worthy of remark.
I think the snide ‘oh there’s a surprise’ stuff is totally unnecessary.
The rise of Farage, and particularly that opinion poll has rightly caused consternation for a lot of people.
I can totally understand why it has caused a shift.
And I don’t think this is an easy voting choice election. I make no secret of the fact that I want the Conservatives removed from office. I think they have lurched in a horrible rightwards direction back to being the Nasty Party. But, by heck, Farage’s Reform are a whole extra level of nastiness. I will vote LibDem tactically.
But, frankly, Starmer’s Labour are very centrist. I suspect that John Major would have sat perfectly happily in his Cabinet.
This is by far and away the most interesting election of my lifetime and it’s complex like none other.
I am now hoping that the Conservatives do okay and form the main Opposition, that they resist the right-ward lurch and return to the centre-right where they belong.
You think Sir John Major could have sat in a Cabinet committed to votes at 16, nationalisation of rail, taxes on public schools, diluting the green belt, banning more hunting, ending north sea oil, unspecified tax rises, and social controls like banning energy drinks under 16?
No, he wouldn’t, he’s a conservative. Absent his history he might not vote for this Tory platform (of course he will in reality), as a voter he might even compromise and vote for that lot like I expect to. But he wouldn’t be part of that Cabinet.
"In every single sphere of British influence, the upper echelons of power in 2013 are held overwhelmingly by the privately educated or the affluent middle class," he said.
"To me, from my background, I find that truly shocking."
He added: "I remember enough of my past to be outraged on behalf of the people abandoned when social mobility is lost... we need them to fly as high as their luck, their ability and their sheer hard graft can actually take them.
"And it is not going to happen magically."
And? Not a secret that he was in favour of the “classless society”. That was his big drive, and one I wholeheartedly supported.
If you can find a quote in which he wants to scrap public schools, rather than increase grants and bursaries then good luck.
John Major sent his own children to private school.
Though it was somewhat cheaper back then:
James, 23 and from Great Stukeley, was educated at pounds 4,500-a-year Kimbolton School, near Peterborough.
...To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat...
I forget how long you have been here but I'd be surprised if it wasn't for at least three elections including this one. Each time you ponder deeply about the general trends of the world, lament upon the government and its actions, and then vote for it. The Conservative Party is your home in a way it is for few others on this site I think, and I will be surprised if you vote for anybody else again, in the hopefully lengthy years to come
2014 was the year I joined and I have been a conservative for most of my life but I did vote for Blair twice
What seems to be missing is that my wife and I rarely discuss politics as we did last night when she revealed she is very anti Davey, but we also are totally opposed to Farage and his declared aim to take over the conservative party
Our decision was made after quite a 'chat' and maybe our 60 years together helps us to come together and we are content with our decision
I knew it would cause controversy on here, and a degree of almost abuse, but then better I am honest in declaring our decision when maybe it would have been easier to stay silent
Interestingly I was in our local post office this morning which was unusually quiet and I commented on Alan Bates knighthood
The conversation went onto politics and she said that most everyone she speaks to are disillusion and angry with all the politicians and for all the promises and she opined that a lot of them are simply not going to vote
Now I know this may have betting implications and may well reflect the nation today, but she did not have a good word to say about anyone in public office
You are obviously fully entitled to your own views and logic but hopefully you can see that the idea that the answer to disillusionment and anger with all politicians is to vote for more of the same (14 years in a row plus two thirds of the last fifty) is a bit odd?
Starmer has won GE24 so that is not what is happening
Farage is the real threat to not only the conservative party but the country with his pro Trump attitude and the best way for conservatives to defeat Farage is to vote conservative and that was our decision last night
The Sun’s online election section is noticeably unhostile to Labour today. Biggest story is Wes Streeting’s “giving the matches back to the arsonists” attack on the Tories, Douglas Murray doing a piece on what happens after the Labour win and an article saying Starmer will freeze fuel duty in line with a Sun campaign and denials about tax rises.
The Sun will probably go cautious Labour with waffle about giving change a chance but warning that Labour need to stick to tax promises etc.
Will be hilarious watching Harry Cole having to get all enthusiastic about Starmer
I suspect it’ll be more like the brief period Brown retained their support after Blair. Lots of attacks on everything, and endless “campaigns” but support when they do as they are told.
The overall point is right though, the Sun will have to go Labour. I wonder if the Mail will stick with the Tories this time though? The Times will surely come out for Labour and the others are obvious.
The sad thing is that they think a printed media endorsement has any meaning anymore. Everyone sees it for what it is, naked opportunism for influence and access
That being said, I think the unthinking right wing populism and blind tory loyalty is going to wither away with the boomers. The real question is: what will the millenials do with their new found electoral power?
They'll do what GenX tell them to do. It's our turn.
Gen X don't have the numbers... but guessing from the memes going around on tiktok and YouTube we do have a huge amount of credibility among the millenials...and what the millenials are saying g rings familiar to me.....it was like that
If you look at actual views expressed by young folks in some ways they are often quite centre right. The Tory brand is screwed for a few years but the right leader could get a movement going. Equally, Gen X and the older millennials increasingly have something that they want to conserve; and patriotism is ageless. Even if the “Conservative” name dies, the political positions will not.
The Sun’s online election section is noticeably unhostile to Labour today. Biggest story is Wes Streeting’s “giving the matches back to the arsonists” attack on the Tories, Douglas Murray doing a piece on what happens after the Labour win and an article saying Starmer will freeze fuel duty in line with a Sun campaign and denials about tax rises.
The Sun will probably go cautious Labour with waffle about giving change a chance but warning that Labour need to stick to tax promises etc.
Will be hilarious watching Harry Cole having to get all enthusiastic about Starmer
I suspect it’ll be more like the brief period Brown retained their support after Blair. Lots of attacks on everything, and endless “campaigns” but support when they do as they are told.
The overall point is right though, the Sun will have to go Labour. I wonder if the Mail will stick with the Tories this time though? The Times will surely come out for Labour and the others are obvious.
I still think there is a non-insignificant chance that the Tory media decide to endorse Reform….
Here’s an interesting story, what do we think given the headlines Sunak got for missing the end of the D-Day commemorations?
“US vice president Kamala Harris will attend the international Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland this weekend, where she will meet with Volodymyr Zelensky and address world leaders.
Ms Harris, who will spend less than 24 hours at the gathering in Lucerne, will be standing in for president Joe Biden at the event. The president will be just ending his participation at the G7 summit in Italy and returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser for his re-election campaign in Los Angeles.”
Biden should really just hand over to Harris and have done with it. I don’t know how she would fare in the election (quite possibly, badly), but he clearly isn’t the right person for another 4 years. Given there are such low expectations on Harris, there could be a fair bit of “surprising on the upside’.
I would say more "should have done that" than "should do that" -- at this distance from the election it is a decision that's been made and can't sensibly be revisited, for better or worse.
Not agreeing with you - for me your spouse is reacting to the surface factors not the more important underlying core, but thanks for dropping a pebble in the conversation pool this morning to make some ripples.
Thank you and that is the value of this site that many views can be expressed, even changes of mind
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I don’t think he was being abusive. Big_G has himself been making a big thing about not voting Tory. Now he tells us he is voting Tory. That’s worthy of remark.
I think the snide ‘oh there’s a surprise’ stuff is totally unnecessary.
The rise of Farage, and particularly that opinion poll has rightly caused consternation for a lot of people.
I can totally understand why it has caused a shift.
And I don’t think this is an easy voting choice election. I make no secret of the fact that I want the Conservatives removed from office. I think they have lurched in a horrible rightwards direction back to being the Nasty Party. But, by heck, Farage’s Reform are a whole extra level of nastiness. I will vote LibDem tactically.
But, frankly, Starmer’s Labour are very centrist. I suspect that John Major would have sat perfectly happily in his Cabinet.
This is by far and away the most interesting election of my lifetime and it’s complex like none other.
I am now hoping that the Conservatives do okay and form the main Opposition, that they resist the right-ward lurch and return to the centre-right where they belong.
You think Sir John Major could have sat in a Cabinet committed to votes at 16, nationalisation of rail, taxes on public schools, diluting the green belt, banning more hunting, ending north sea oil, unspecified tax rises, and social controls like banning energy drinks under 16?
No, he wouldn’t, he’s a conservative. Absent his history he might not vote for this Tory platform (of course he will in reality), as a voter he might even compromise and vote for that lot like I expect to. But he wouldn’t be part of that Cabinet.
"In every single sphere of British influence, the upper echelons of power in 2013 are held overwhelmingly by the privately educated or the affluent middle class," he said.
"To me, from my background, I find that truly shocking."
He added: "I remember enough of my past to be outraged on behalf of the people abandoned when social mobility is lost... we need them to fly as high as their luck, their ability and their sheer hard graft can actually take them.
"And it is not going to happen magically."
You know what's brilliant there?
The Holy Trinity of success: luck, ability and sheer hard graft.
I'm all for the last two of these being celebrated and rewarded. But the greatest of these is luck. Conservatives used to acknowledge that, and the duty to others that came with success. Now, to a very very large degree, they don't.
And, as they say in golfing circles, the more I go to Eton and Oxford the luckier I get.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I don’t think he was being abusive. Big_G has himself been making a big thing about not voting Tory. Now he tells us he is voting Tory. That’s worthy of remark.
I think the snide ‘oh there’s a surprise’ stuff is totally unnecessary.
The rise of Farage, and particularly that opinion poll has rightly caused consternation for a lot of people.
I can totally understand why it has caused a shift.
And I don’t think this is an easy voting choice election. I make no secret of the fact that I want the Conservatives removed from office. I think they have lurched in a horrible rightwards direction back to being the Nasty Party. But, by heck, Farage’s Reform are a whole extra level of nastiness. I will vote LibDem tactically.
But, frankly, Starmer’s Labour are very centrist. I suspect that John Major would have sat perfectly happily in his Cabinet.
This is by far and away the most interesting election of my lifetime and it’s complex like none other.
I am now hoping that the Conservatives do okay and form the main Opposition, that they resist the right-ward lurch and return to the centre-right where they belong.
You think Sir John Major could have sat in a Cabinet committed to votes at 16, nationalisation of rail, taxes on public schools, diluting the green belt, banning more hunting, ending north sea oil, unspecified tax rises, and social controls like banning energy drinks under 16?
No, he wouldn’t, he’s a conservative. Absent his history he might not vote for this Tory platform (of course he will in reality), as a voter he might even compromise and vote for that lot like I expect to. But he wouldn’t be part of that Cabinet.
"In every single sphere of British influence, the upper echelons of power in 2013 are held overwhelmingly by the privately educated or the affluent middle class," he said.
"To me, from my background, I find that truly shocking."
He added: "I remember enough of my past to be outraged on behalf of the people abandoned when social mobility is lost... we need them to fly as high as their luck, their ability and their sheer hard graft can actually take them.
"And it is not going to happen magically."
And? Not a secret that he was in favour of the “classless society”. That was his big drive, and one I wholeheartedly supported.
If you can find a quote in which he wants to scrap public schools, rather than increase grants and bursaries then good luck.
Labour is not in favour of scrapping public schools either. I doubt VAT on private schools would be a hill to die on for him, he was collegiate and a believer in cabinet responsibility.
I didn’t present it as one…. I presented a package.
Not agreeing with you - for me your spouse is reacting to the surface factors not the more important underlying core, but thanks for dropping a pebble in the conversation pool this morning to make some ripples.
Thank you and that is the value of this site that many views can be expressed, even changes of mind
It would be no fun if people never changed their minds.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
There are a number of errors within this but not least that the NHS is not a single monolith. The 4 nations run their own NHS and in England we have 250 or so Trusts, each making autonomous decisions, as well as a plethora of commissioning groups, independent sector NHS providers etc.
Yes, ironically my own fix for the NHS is to centralise the damn thing and take out all the inefficiencies of all those different trusts and the silly internal market.
Which will bring you back to the world where nothing can be changed, because someone 10 levels up wrote Something In The Plan.
The Sun’s online election section is noticeably unhostile to Labour today. Biggest story is Wes Streeting’s “giving the matches back to the arsonists” attack on the Tories, Douglas Murray doing a piece on what happens after the Labour win and an article saying Starmer will freeze fuel duty in line with a Sun campaign and denials about tax rises.
The Sun will probably go cautious Labour with waffle about giving change a chance but warning that Labour need to stick to tax promises etc.
Will be hilarious watching Harry Cole having to get all enthusiastic about Starmer
I suspect it’ll be more like the brief period Brown retained their support after Blair. Lots of attacks on everything, and endless “campaigns” but support when they do as they are told.
The overall point is right though, the Sun will have to go Labour. I wonder if the Mail will stick with the Tories this time though? The Times will surely come out for Labour and the others are obvious.
The sad thing is that they think a printed media endorsement has any meaning anymore. Everyone sees it for what it is, naked opportunism for influence and access
I think that increasingly it’s more about telling your existing readers (the diminishing pot you want to retain) that you agree with them than it is about trying to lead them.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
I thought the Gambling Commission regulated licence holders (i.e. bookies) rather than punters?
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
Hope no one here is going to get in trouble
Within the last few days we have discussed being able to offset gambling losses against tax and the chance of being put in prison for gambling wins. Exciting times.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
I’ll scroll back to see what that’s all about ref. @Big_G_NorthWales but if it’s a consolation to him, my Surrey tory friend is going through the same inner turmoil. Having told me she was voting Lib Dem she now seems massively conflicted. She says she doesn’t know who she is going to vote for. She intensely dislikes the nastiness of the current tory party and is in despair about the direction they have gone. But she has voted for them all her life.
I suspect she’s going to vote Conservative.
A story that will be repeated a few million times across the UK. It is what it is. 'DK' but they do, they do
Those that don't know, don't vote.
Those that don't know on polling day, don't vote
Your username suggests an extreme of inflexibility which if everyone shared it would make elections pretty uninteresting. Floating voters do actually float, people do change their mind.
I meet many "Don't knows" on the doorstep. My first instinct is to exclaim "What! You don't know!!". I mistakenly assume that everyone has thought about this and made a choice or is at least inclined to a choice - a probable.
Some do know but say don't know to avoid offending me, Probably polite Tory. Say 20% Some do know but are certainly not going to tell me. None of your business. Could even be LD. Say 10% Some genuinely don't know and want to consider the pros and cons, - read the manifestos etc. less than 5% Some don't know and don't care and won't vote. over 65%
Last night I returned from my cycling trip and tomorrow I am back on the campaign trail again.
480 km cycled, fell off once (when your companion points and says 'look at that house', don't, it is not a good idea, particularly if he is likely to stop), ate and drank too much and have sore legs and a sore face due to the sun and the wind. Longest day was 70 km. Visited just too many nice places and met so many other nice cyclists most of which were cycling much further than us and often quite a bit older than us. You are definitely not too old at 69, but at the moment it feels like it.
Good for you sir. Sounds like a glorious trip. Enjoyed the shots of beautiful French mansions too.
Here’s an interesting story, what do we think given the headlines Sunak got for missing the end of the D-Day commemorations?
“US vice president Kamala Harris will attend the international Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland this weekend, where she will meet with Volodymyr Zelensky and address world leaders.
Ms Harris, who will spend less than 24 hours at the gathering in Lucerne, will be standing in for president Joe Biden at the event. The president will be just ending his participation at the G7 summit in Italy and returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser for his re-election campaign in Los Angeles.”
Biden should really just hand over to Harris and have done with it. I don’t know how she would fare in the election (quite possibly, badly), but he clearly isn’t the right person for another 4 years. Given there are such low expectations on Harris, there could be a fair bit of “surprising on the upside’.
I would say more "should have done that" than "should do that" -- at this distance from the election it is a decision that's been made and can't sensibly be revisited, for better or worse.
I agree the decision should have been taken earlier. But it still can be taken (probably, realistically, up to and including the convention). Fully accept that’s leaving it dramatically and uncomfortably late, however. But if Biden dropped dead tomorrow - Harris would need to pick up the reins. So a “my health is now failing and I can’t do it anymore” would probably still work. Might even elicit some sympathy for the Dems. But a huge gamble - and, yes I do think Biden has made the decision to run and rightly or wrongly he’s going to follow through with that.
...To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat...
I forget how long you have been here but I'd be surprised if it wasn't for at least three elections including this one. Each time you ponder deeply about the general trends of the world, lament upon the government and its actions, and then vote for it. The Conservative Party is your home in a way it is for few others on this site I think, and I will be surprised if you vote for anybody else again, in the hopefully lengthy years to come
2014 was the year I joined and I have been a conservative for most of my life but I did vote for Blair twice
What seems to be missing is that my wife and I rarely discuss politics as we did last night when she revealed she is very anti Davey, but we also are totally opposed to Farage and his declared aim to take over the conservative party
Our decision was made after quite a 'chat' and maybe our 60 years together helps us to come together and we are content with our decision
I knew it would cause controversy on here, and a degree of almost abuse, but then better I am honest in declaring our decision when maybe it would have been easier to stay silent
Interestingly I was in our local post office this morning which was unusually quiet and I commented on Alan Bates knighthood
The conversation went onto politics and she said that most everyone she speaks to are disillusion and angry with all the politicians and for all the promises and she opined that a lot of them are simply not going to vote
Now I know this may have betting implications and may well reflect the nation today, but she did not have a good word to say about anyone in public office
You are obviously fully entitled to your own views and logic but hopefully you can see that the idea that the answer to disillusionment and anger with all politicians is to vote for more of the same (14 years in a row plus two thirds of the last fifty) is a bit odd?
Starmer has won GE24 so that is not what is happening
Farage is the real threat to not only the conservative party but the country with his pro Trump attitude and the best way for conservatives to defeat Farage is to vote conservative and that was our decision last night
All you say there is no matter how bad the Tory party offering is some people will vote Tory.
If you want to shift them to the Centre ground you need to vote Lib Dem if you want to shift them right vote Reform.
Vote Tory and all you say is that it doesn’t matter how crap as a party we are our brand gets us x% of the vote - that after all is why Farage is so keen to merge with the Tory party
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
I agree that Farage must be stopped in his tracks, but what happens if the Tories do go down to a big defeat, and then decide, and I think this is likely to happen, that they were not right wing enough, and Farage is welcomed with open arms, you then end up being a Farage enabler. I could not vote labour why Corbyn and his cronies were in charge, Labour under Starmer learnt their lesson, I'm not sure the Torys are ready to tack back to the centre
When Corbyn led Labour I did not vote for them at either election, it was a matter of principle.
I was tempted in 2017 but knew that if I did the Corbynites would claim it as a vote for them. That is exactly what happened as BigJohnOwls constantly crows about how many votes Corbyn got in 2017 despite the fact that millions of those voters despised Corbyn's brand of politics and he still lost. 2019 gave a far better indication of what people really thought of Corbyn.
I can understand why BigG has voted Tory but I believe he would always have found one fig leaf or another to hide behind as he did when he voted for Johnson in 2019. People are different but I could not bring myself to vote for an MP and government that I knew were useless. Whether he likes it or not his vote will be seen as endorsing Miller/Johnson/Truss/Sunak and their politics.
Re your last paragraph, even if that’s true about finding one fig leaf or another, shouldn’t we be paying attention to that? As a betting site, first and foremost I mean?
Doesn’t it suggest that possibly the current opinion polls are over-egging the demise of the Conservatives?
I’m not saying that this is definitely happening but that’s three people I now know who told me they weren’t going to vote Conservative who now are.
Quite apart from the unsavoury nature of personal abuse, we should be aware as punters .
My guess is that Tories will rise about 5 points at Reform's expense by polling day. I hope that proves to be the case and BigG is an indicator of that happening. So in a betting sense it is a straw in the wind.
I have no issue with BigG returning to the fold, I would have bet money he always would.
However, he opens himself up to ridicule by earnestly telling us for months how he detests the politics of Boris Johnson and Robin Miller and that he's disgusted by Sunak's antics at D-Day only to turn round and vote for them at the last moment again.
Nothing would have induced me to vote Labour while it was dominated by Corbyn.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
The horseshoe theory of the political spectrum. At the extreme ends, they have an awful lot in common, and are closer to each other than to mainstream centrist beliefs.
As seen with both the far left and the MAGA Republicans loving Putin and hating on Ukraine.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
For the avoidance of doubt, although I was the only one to predict July 4th in the prediction competition, I did NOT bet on it.
Not agreeing with you - for me your spouse is reacting to the surface factors not the more important underlying core, but thanks for dropping a pebble in the conversation pool this morning to make some ripples.
Thank you and that is the value of this site that many views can be expressed, even changes of mind
It would be no fun if people never changed their minds.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
There are a number of errors within this but not least that the NHS is not a single monolith. The 4 nations run their own NHS and in England we have 250 or so Trusts, each making autonomous decisions, as well as a plethora of commissioning groups, independent sector NHS providers etc.
Yes, ironically my own fix for the NHS is to centralise the damn thing and take out all the inefficiencies of all those different trusts and the silly internal market.
Which will bring you back to the world where nothing can be changed, because someone 10 levels up wrote Something In The Plan.
I do agree with that too. You have to have some way to let people get new ideas in, via a shadow board or some such. You also need to keep an eye on other jurisdictions.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I don’t think he was being abusive. Big_G has himself been making a big thing about not voting Tory. Now he tells us he is voting Tory. That’s worthy of remark.
I think the snide ‘oh there’s a surprise’ stuff is totally unnecessary.
The rise of Farage, and particularly that opinion poll has rightly caused consternation for a lot of people.
I can totally understand why it has caused a shift.
And I don’t think this is an easy voting choice election. I make no secret of the fact that I want the Conservatives removed from office. I think they have lurched in a horrible rightwards direction back to being the Nasty Party. But, by heck, Farage’s Reform are a whole extra level of nastiness. I will vote LibDem tactically.
But, frankly, Starmer’s Labour are very centrist. I suspect that John Major would have sat perfectly happily in his Cabinet.
This is by far and away the most interesting election of my lifetime and it’s complex like none other.
I am now hoping that the Conservatives do okay and form the main Opposition, that they resist the right-ward lurch and return to the centre-right where they belong.
You think Sir John Major could have sat in a Cabinet committed to votes at 16, nationalisation of rail, taxes on public schools, diluting the green belt, banning more hunting, ending north sea oil, unspecified tax rises, and social controls like banning energy drinks under 16?
No, he wouldn’t, he’s a conservative. Absent his history he might not vote for this Tory platform (of course he will in reality), as a voter he might even compromise and vote for that lot like I expect to. But he wouldn’t be part of that Cabinet.
"In every single sphere of British influence, the upper echelons of power in 2013 are held overwhelmingly by the privately educated or the affluent middle class," he said.
"To me, from my background, I find that truly shocking."
He added: "I remember enough of my past to be outraged on behalf of the people abandoned when social mobility is lost... we need them to fly as high as their luck, their ability and their sheer hard graft can actually take them.
"And it is not going to happen magically."
You know what's brilliant there?
The Holy Trinity of success: luck, ability and sheer hard graft.
I'm all for the last two of these being celebrated and rewarded. But the greatest of these is luck. Conservatives used to acknowledge that, and the duty to others that came with success. Now, to a very very large degree, they don't.
And, as they say in golfing circles, the more I go to Eton and Oxford the luckier I get.
And even that's probably changed.
A generation ago, the dynamic of elite education was "you're fortunate to be here, and with that great fortune comes great responsibility." That message didn't always take, but it was there.
Now, there seems to be more "you're here because you're worth it." The toxic side of meritocracy.
Can't remember who came up with the critique of Thatcher- she wanted to recreate the Britain of her father, but ended up creating the Britain of her son- but there's a ring of truth to it.
Good Morning folks. So we will have a new goverment and leader. I hope it turns out to be a positive experience. KC for me spends a lot of time critcising what other have done and do. This does not wash. We need a leader who is a doer not a wordsmith or a waffler. Action speaks louder than words comes to mind. Making the economy stronger and improving peoples quality of life is what the country needs. If he and his party can achieve that he will get a second term. If not he will be here and gone tomorrow.As we know a week is a long time in politics. The country deserves somthing good!
Here’s an interesting story, what do we think given the headlines Sunak got for missing the end of the D-Day commemorations?
“US vice president Kamala Harris will attend the international Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland this weekend, where she will meet with Volodymyr Zelensky and address world leaders.
Ms Harris, who will spend less than 24 hours at the gathering in Lucerne, will be standing in for president Joe Biden at the event. The president will be just ending his participation at the G7 summit in Italy and returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser for his re-election campaign in Los Angeles.”
“Returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser” is code for “tucked up in bed with a horlicks” isn’t it?
Ha possibly. I suspect that there’s only so many days they can keep him ‘awake and alert’ before he needs some time to recover.
The different media environment in the US, with partisan ‘news’ channels, probably means that this won’t cut through in the same way as does in the UK. Fox News will run all day with it, but they’re preaching to the choir of conservatives who already dislike the guy.
On the substance of the summit, I think there’s a real opportunity for Ukraine in the coming months, with evidence of Russian air defences being short in both numbers and capability, and vulnerable to being taken out by small drones. If Ukraine can achieve air superiority, they have a real opportunity to gain significant ground over the summer.
I wondered whether the cash from Russian assets will help cover the risk of a Trump win. Presumably he won’t mind selling them arms in return for that cash.
Interesting point, it does take away a lot of the US Conservative arguments against funding Ukraine (over domestic priorities), if the funding is coming from frozen Russian assets rather than the US Treasury.
As I predicted, the last lot of funding was passed with the argument that the vast majority of the money was going to US defence contractors, and supporting tens of thousands of American jobs in Republican States and Districts. There’s several new ammunition factories under construction in the States at the moment.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
I agree that Farage must be stopped in his tracks, but what happens if the Tories do go down to a big defeat, and then decide, and I think this is likely to happen, that they were not right wing enough, and Farage is welcomed with open arms, you then end up being a Farage enabler. I could not vote labour why Corbyn and his cronies were in charge, Labour under Starmer learnt their lesson, I'm not sure the Torys are ready to tack back to the centre
When Corbyn led Labour I did not vote for them at either election, it was a matter of principle.
I was tempted in 2017 but knew that if I did the Corbynites would claim it as a vote for them. That is exactly what happened as BigJohnOwls constantly crows about how many votes Corbyn got in 2017 despite the fact that millions of those voters despised Corbyn's brand of politics and he still lost. 2019 gave a far better indication of what people really thought of Corbyn.
I can understand why BigG has voted Tory but I believe he would always have found one fig leaf or another to hide behind as he did when he voted for Johnson in 2019. People are different but I could not bring myself to vote for an MP and government that I knew were useless. Whether he likes it or not his vote will be seen as endorsing Miller/Johnson/Truss/Sunak and their politics.
Re your last paragraph, even if that’s true about finding one fig leaf or another, shouldn’t we be paying attention to that? As a betting site, first and foremost I mean?
Doesn’t it suggest that possibly the current opinion polls are over-egging the demise of the Conservatives?
I’m not saying that this is definitely happening but that’s three people I now know who told me they weren’t going to vote Conservative who now are.
Quite apart from the unsavoury nature of personal abuse, we should be aware as punters .
My guess is that Tories will rise about 5 points at Reform's expense by polling day. I hope that proves to be the case and BigG is an indicator of that happening. So in a betting sense it is a straw in the wind.
I have no issue with BigG returning to the fold, I would have bet money he always would.
However, he opens himself up to ridicule by earnestly telling us for months how he detests the politics of Boris Johnson and Robin Miller and that he's disgusted by Sunak's antics at D-Day only to turn round and vote for them at the last moment again.
Nothing would have induced me to vote Labour while it was dominated by Corbyn.
Indeed. But in some polls the 5 points get them to 30, and in some they barely get them to 25. And what of Labour?
After all this heat and light, a 40/32 split giving us something 97/01 flavoured would feel like such an anticlimax!
I also think the entire long term future of Reform relies on them getting Farage into the House to make some speeches that go viral, like he did in Europe.
I agree with the header. As an ex-Conservative voter I was both frustrated and saddened by the continual right-ward lurches of the party, leaving me behind in an electoral wilderness with no viable LibDem presence and (at the time) Corbyn...
I disagree that the Conservative brand has value. They have destroyed whatever value they had and the only value they have left is the deluded belief by habitual Cons. voters that it can all come good again if they can just get the right leader. The Party is choc-full of nutters and swivel-eyed loons and it needs a d*mn good cleaning out.
A wipeout and some years in the wilderness should eject quite a few idiots and chinless wonders. What a pity that we have to endure the rather grey non-person that is Starmer. I only hope that he has his crazies under control.
And the invisible man (Ed Davey)? We will have to see what is in there when the bandages are unwound.
The 'Conservative' or 'Tory' name or brand may well still have value. There is, so far, no evidence for about a 100 years of trying that a new name or brand can get into the top two in terms of seats. In FPTP only the top two count WRT leading government, the others count in respect of which of the two it is at any time.
The most likely outcome is: The name (Conservative) stays the same; the assets (buildings, money, branch network) have continuity; the position as one of the top two is restored or remains. The contest is for the underlying foundations of their political beliefs. At the moment there are none, and they are intellectually exhausted. Just ask the question: What are coherent ideological underpinnings of the Daily Telegraph or the Spectator? None. Of the Mail you don't even ask the question.
This requires a Peel, Lincoln, Jenkins, Attlee, Thatcher, Blair+. But pragmatism is no longer any good. 'What counts is what works' is no use when that has lost its resonance.
Never mind Attlee and the Spectator, the central point is that the leadership is in the gift of the befuddled oldies who gave Truss a landslide.
Point taken, but. Not if the MPs decide it isn't; and secondly a Tory party with visibly nothing left in the way of seats and ideas is ripe for the good sort of entryism from people who see that Labour is currently full of very bright young hopefuls, 480 of them on the green benches, and want to look 5-10 years ahead to when the alternative will be needed. The Tory party of 10 years time is where to look now if you are 16-30 and want a career in politics. Centre right Zoomers to replace the ageing Boomers?
The presupposes that said youngsters wanting a career in politics are without political leanings and will simply go wherever they think they can best achieve power. I doubt if anyone who is without political beliefs can succeed in politics.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
I’ll scroll back to see what that’s all about ref. @Big_G_NorthWales but if it’s a consolation to him, my Surrey tory friend is going through the same inner turmoil. Having told me she was voting Lib Dem she now seems massively conflicted. She says she doesn’t know who she is going to vote for. She intensely dislikes the nastiness of the current tory party and is in despair about the direction they have gone. But she has voted for them all her life.
I suspect she’s going to vote Conservative.
A story that will be repeated a few million times across the UK. It is what it is. 'DK' but they do, they do
Those that don't know, don't vote.
Those that don't know on polling day, don't vote
Your username suggests an extreme of inflexibility which if everyone shared it would make elections pretty uninteresting. Floating voters do actually float, people do change their mind.
I meet many "Don't knows" on the doorstep. My first instinct is to exclaim "What! You don't know!!". I mistakenly assume that everyone has thought about this and made a choice or is at least inclined to a choice - a probable.
Some do know but say don't know to avoid offending me, Probably polite Tory. Say 20% Some do know but are certainly not going to tell me. None of your business. Could even be LD. Say 10% Some genuinely don't know and want to consider the pros and cons, - read the manifestos etc. less than 5% Some don't know and don't care and won't vote. over 65%
That first group (and agree on percentages) has two interesting subgroups.
There's "I'm a loyal voter for someone else but don't want an argument". But there's also "I'm normally a loyal voter for you, but I'm not voting for you this time. I don't want a fight and don't entirely want to admit it to myself."
What Conservatives of the second type do this time is the difference between defeat, disaster and death for the party.
I agree with the header. As an ex-Conservative voter I was both frustrated and saddened by the continual right-ward lurches of the party, leaving me behind in an electoral wilderness with no viable LibDem presence and (at the time) Corbyn...
I disagree that the Conservative brand has value. They have destroyed whatever value they had and the only value they have left is the deluded belief by habitual Cons. voters that it can all come good again if they can just get the right leader. The Party is choc-full of nutters and swivel-eyed loons and it needs a d*mn good cleaning out.
A wipeout and some years in the wilderness should eject quite a few idiots and chinless wonders. What a pity that we have to endure the rather grey non-person that is Starmer. I only hope that he has his crazies under control.
And the invisible man (Ed Davey)? We will have to see what is in there when the bandages are unwound.
The 'Conservative' or 'Tory' name or brand may well still have value. There is, so far, no evidence for about a 100 years of trying that a new name or brand can get into the top two in terms of seats. In FPTP only the top two count WRT leading government, the others count in respect of which of the two it is at any time.
The most likely outcome is: The name (Conservative) stays the same; the assets (buildings, money, branch network) have continuity; the position as one of the top two is restored or remains. The contest is for the underlying foundations of their political beliefs. At the moment there are none, and they are intellectually exhausted. Just ask the question: What are coherent ideological underpinnings of the Daily Telegraph or the Spectator? None. Of the Mail you don't even ask the question.
This requires a Peel, Lincoln, Jenkins, Attlee, Thatcher, Blair+. But pragmatism is no longer any good. 'What counts is what works' is no use when that has lost its resonance.
Never mind Attlee and the Spectator, the central point is that the leadership is in the gift of the befuddled oldies who gave Truss a landslide.
Point taken, but. Not if the MPs decide it isn't; and secondly a Tory party with visibly nothing left in the way of seats and ideas is ripe for the good sort of entryism from people who see that Labour is currently full of very bright young hopefuls, 480 of them on the green benches, and want to look 5-10 years ahead to when the alternative will be needed. The Tory party of 10 years time is where to look now if you are 16-30 and want a career in politics. Centre right Zoomers to replace the ageing Boomers?
The presupposes that said youngsters wanting a career in politics are without political leanings and will simply go wherever they think they can best achieve power. I doubt if anyone who is without political beliefs can succeed in politics.
Chris Patton used to say he tossed a coin, from memory.
Good Morning folks. So we will have a new goverment and leader. I hope it turns out to be a positive experience. KC for me spends a lot of time critcising what other have done and do. This does not wash. We need a leader who is a doer not a wordsmith or a waffler. Action speaks louder than words comes to mind. Making the economy stronger and improving peoples quality of life is what the country needs. If he and his party can achieve that he will get a second term. If not he will be here and gone tomorrow.As we know a week is a long time in politics. The country deserves somthing good!
I've not noticed the King spending a lot of time critcising what other have done and do, tbh. Must've passed me by.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
I thought the Gambling Commission regulated licence holders (i.e. bookies) rather than punters?
They also do the equivalent of monitoring insider trading for betting. Its a grey area, so being part of NU10K or whatever he will face an investigation, some joshing from his colleagues and nothing else.
Good Morning folks. So we will have a new goverment and leader. I hope it turns out to be a positive experience. KC for me spends a lot of time critcising what other have done and do. This does not wash. We need a leader who is a doer not a wordsmith or a waffler. Action speaks louder than words comes to mind. Making the economy stronger and improving peoples quality of life is what the country needs. If he and his party can achieve that he will get a second term. If not he will be here and gone tomorrow.As we know a week is a long time in politics. The country deserves somthing good!
Morning, I'd missed that King Charles was standing in this one.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
I agree that Farage must be stopped in his tracks, but what happens if the Tories do go down to a big defeat, and then decide, and I think this is likely to happen, that they were not right wing enough, and Farage is welcomed with open arms, you then end up being a Farage enabler. I could not vote labour why Corbyn and his cronies were in charge, Labour under Starmer learnt their lesson, I'm not sure the Torys are ready to tack back to the centre
When Corbyn led Labour I did not vote for them at either election, it was a matter of principle.
I was tempted in 2017 but knew that if I did the Corbynites would claim it as a vote for them. That is exactly what happened as BigJohnOwls constantly crows about how many votes Corbyn got in 2017 despite the fact that millions of those voters despised Corbyn's brand of politics and he still lost. 2019 gave a far better indication of what people really thought of Corbyn.
I can understand why BigG has voted Tory but I believe he would always have found one fig leaf or another to hide behind as he did when he voted for Johnson in 2019. People are different but I could not bring myself to vote for an MP and government that I knew were useless. Whether he likes it or not his vote will be seen as endorsing Miller/Johnson/Truss/Sunak and their politics.
Re your last paragraph, even if that’s true about finding one fig leaf or another, shouldn’t we be paying attention to that? As a betting site, first and foremost I mean?
Doesn’t it suggest that possibly the current opinion polls are over-egging the demise of the Conservatives?
I’m not saying that this is definitely happening but that’s three people I now know who told me they weren’t going to vote Conservative who now are.
Quite apart from the unsavoury nature of personal abuse, we should be aware as punters .
My guess is that Tories will rise about 5 points at Reform's expense by polling day. I hope that proves to be the case and BigG is an indicator of that happening. So in a betting sense it is a straw in the wind.
I have no issue with BigG returning to the fold, I would have bet money he always would.
However, he opens himself up to ridicule by earnestly telling us for months how he detests the politics of Boris Johnson and Robin Miller and that he's disgusted by Sunak's antics at D-Day only to turn round and vote for them at the last moment again.
Nothing would have induced me to vote Labour while it was dominated by Corbyn.
Nothing would have induced me to vote Labour under Corbyn, because his party was riddled with anti-semites. So it's a slightly different thing - the racists seem to have gone over to Reform in this instance.
And perhaps that _is_ a reason to vote Conservative this time around. Labour have won this by a country mile, the risk now is the Tories face such a staggering defeat that what's left gets reverse-taken-over by Farage and then we have the choice between Labour and a really nasty hard right lot far worse than the current Conservative party for the next decade or more. Perhaps forever.
I'm still not voting Conservative. But, if you're a traditional one nation Tory type, I can understand why you might be holding your nose and voting to save your party from the Faragist Intifada this time around.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
I thought the Gambling Commission regulated licence holders (i.e. bookies) rather than punters?
They also do the equivalent of monitoring insider trading for betting. Its a grey area, so being part of NU10K or whatever he will face an investigation, some joshing from his colleagues and nothing else.
Would he not have to be in a position to actually affect the outcome to be in real trouble, rather than simply aware of something that may or may not be announced in the future?
This situation sounds like a groom in a stable knowing who’s the lame horse and who’s the strong horse before a race.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
There are a number of errors within this but not least that the NHS is not a single monolith. The 4 nations run their own NHS and in England we have 250 or so Trusts, each making autonomous decisions, as well as a plethora of commissioning groups, independent sector NHS providers etc.
Yes, ironically my own fix for the NHS is to centralise the damn thing and take out all the inefficiencies of all those different trusts and the silly internal market.
Which will bring you back to the world where nothing can be changed, because someone 10 levels up wrote Something In The Plan.
I do agree with that too. You have to have some way to let people get new ideas in, via a shadow board or some such. You also need to keep an eye on other jurisdictions.
You need subsidiarity - just like in government (but unfortunately not our one)
A strong central framework of policies and principles and activities with high economies of scale - together with devolved decision making and experimentation and an effective mechanism for sharing good ideas and best practice.
"The far right has struggled to make an electoral impact in the UK, over many elections and many incarnations: Reform UK, the Brexit Party, UKIP, and earlier iterations."
None of those are or were far right, with the possible exception of the post-Farage UKIP. Thatcherite liberalism with vague 'populist' rhetoric is not far right anymore than the Green Party is far left.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
The horseshoe theory of the political spectrum. At the extreme ends, they have an awful lot in common, and are closer to each other than to mainstream centrist beliefs.
As seen with both the far left and the MAGA Republicans loving Putin and hating on Ukraine.
I got one a couple of days ago, despite not being a party member. (I was a member for a very short time in 2022 so that I could vote in the leadership election).
My heart is to vote Reform but my head is to do the unthinkable and vote Labour as Labour are the incumbent (sort of) and have the best chance of defeating the Conservatives.
I want to see the near extinction of them. They are not honourable. They have lied and lied to us. For example on immigration. They lied, not for honourable reasons but to get cheap labour for sweatshops and short term profits for their mates rather than the hard work of training enough people, reforming benefits so that work pays (throwing away IDS and the Coalitions work) and supporting getting those on a benefits lifestyle back into work and a worthwhile life.
Meanwhile house prices and rents soar as far more people are being imported than our housing stock can support and our infrastructure and public services collapses for the same reasons.
Labour are already heading for a ridiculously large majority, so they probably don't need extra votes.
That being said, I think the unthinking right wing populism and blind tory loyalty is going to wither away with the boomers. The real question is: what will the millenials do with their new found electoral power?
They'll do what GenX tell them to do. It's our turn.
Gen X don't have the numbers... but guessing from the memes going around on tiktok and YouTube we do have a huge amount of credibility among the millenials...and what the millenials are saying g rings familiar to me.....it was like that
If you look at actual views expressed by young folks in some ways they are often quite centre right. The Tory brand is screwed for a few years but the right leader could get a movement going. Equally, Gen X and the older millennials increasingly have something that they want to conserve; and patriotism is ageless. Even if the “Conservative” name dies, the political positions will not.
The wheel turns.
Patriotism is not ageless. It is a modern invention.... sorry.
But I think yiu are right that the mainstream political position is what it is in britain. What matters is the political parties' capacity to reflect that fact. That is why farage's brand of populism will only ever be a side show.
"The far right has struggled to make an electoral impact in the UK, over many elections and many incarnations: Reform UK, the Brexit Party, UKIP, and earlier iterations."
None of those are or were far right, with the possible exception of the post-Farage UKIP. Thatcherite liberalism with vague 'populist' rhetoric is not far right anymore than the Green Party is far left.
Farage's 'doesn't understand our culture' dog whistle. Lee Anderson saying Islamists have 'taken control' of London. Tice saying Anderson's comments are supported by 'millions of Britons'. The Times finding out that 41 Reform candidates are Facebook friends with the leader of the New British Union, a poundshop Oswald Mosley type.
Reform are far right. Call them what they are. Far right.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
I thought the Gambling Commission regulated licence holders (i.e. bookies) rather than punters?
They also do the equivalent of monitoring insider trading for betting. Its a grey area, so being part of NU10K or whatever he will face an investigation, some joshing from his colleagues and nothing else.
Would he not have to be in a position to actually affect the outcome to be in real trouble, rather than simply aware of something that may or may not be announced in the future?
This situation sounds like a groom in a stable knowing who’s the lame horse and who’s the strong horse before a race.
(1)A person commits an offence if he— (a)cheats at gambling
Examples are given but they are not defined as comprehensive, so it comes down to an interpretation of cheating.
Phil Iveys edge sorting is the biggest test case so far where he was found to be a cheat in civil court and it did create a lower bar for what is considered cheating:
"This could be one of the most significant judgments in criminal law for many years, if as the Supreme Court suggest, a new test for dishonesty is applied. Since Ghosh juries have been told that defendants are only guilty if the dishonest conduct involved in the offence was dishonest by the standards of ordinary reasonable and honest people and also that they must have realised that ordinary honest people would regard their behaviour as dishonest. If this second limb of the test is to disappear, it might make convictions for dishonesty related offences easier to obtain, particularly in the more complex cases, such as those involving financial fraud.”
It's possible, but unlikely I think. Unless they proper melt down. Tbf to Mary Elizabeth, she has no national role to play (I expect she's been VERY forcefully benched) so she may as well work the good folk of Norfolk.
A Truss defeat would take the Tories into Canada 93 territory. It's an amusing thought but, even under current circumstances, it seems highly improbable. That part of the country is deep Tory core territory.
However, local tip: I think North Norfolk will go back to the Lib Dems, with a smallish majority.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
I thought the Gambling Commission regulated licence holders (i.e. bookies) rather than punters?
They also do the equivalent of monitoring insider trading for betting. Its a grey area, so being part of NU10K or whatever he will face an investigation, some joshing from his colleagues and nothing else.
Would he not have to be in a position to actually affect the outcome to be in real trouble, rather than simply aware of something that may or may not be announced in the future?
This situation sounds like a groom in a stable knowing who’s the lame horse and who’s the strong horse before a race.
(1)A person commits an offence if he— (a)cheats at gambling
Examples are given but they are not defined as comprehensive, so it comes down to an interpretation of cheating.
Phil Iveys edge sorting is the biggest test case so far where he was found to be a cheat in civil court and it did create a lower bar for what is considered cheating:
"This could be one of the most significant judgments in criminal law for many years, if as the Supreme Court suggest, a new test for dishonesty is applied. Since Ghosh juries have been told that defendants are only guilty if the dishonest conduct involved in the offence was dishonest by the standards of ordinary reasonable and honest people and also that they must have realised that ordinary honest people would regard their behaviour as dishonest. If this second limb of the test is to disappear, it might make convictions for dishonesty related offences easier to obtain, particularly in the more complex cases, such as those involving financial fraud.”
The Phil Ivey case was astonishing to follow, but also an example of just how far professionals will go to find an edge. Literally an edge in this case.
"The far right has struggled to make an electoral impact in the UK, over many elections and many incarnations: Reform UK, the Brexit Party, UKIP, and earlier iterations."
None of those are or were far right, with the possible exception of the post-Farage UKIP. Thatcherite liberalism with vague 'populist' rhetoric is not far right anymore than the Green Party is far left.
Farage's 'doesn't understand our culture' dog whistle. Lee Anderson saying Islamists have 'taken control' of London. Tice saying Anderson's comments are supported by 'millions of Britons'. The Times finding out that 41 Reform candidates are Facebook friends with the leader of the New British Union, a poundshop Oswald Mosley type.
Reform are far right. Call them what they are. Far right.
Anderson was a Conservative MP at the time, and plenty of Conservative MPs stood by him.
I agree with the header. As an ex-Conservative voter I was both frustrated and saddened by the continual right-ward lurches of the party, leaving me behind in an electoral wilderness with no viable LibDem presence and (at the time) Corbyn...
I disagree that the Conservative brand has value. They have destroyed whatever value they had and the only value they have left is the deluded belief by habitual Cons. voters that it can all come good again if they can just get the right leader. The Party is choc-full of nutters and swivel-eyed loons and it needs a d*mn good cleaning out.
A wipeout and some years in the wilderness should eject quite a few idiots and chinless wonders. What a pity that we have to endure the rather grey non-person that is Starmer. I only hope that he has his crazies under control.
And the invisible man (Ed Davey)? We will have to see what is in there when the bandages are unwound.
The 'Conservative' or 'Tory' name or brand may well still have value. There is, so far, no evidence for about a 100 years of trying that a new name or brand can get into the top two in terms of seats. In FPTP only the top two count WRT leading government, the others count in respect of which of the two it is at any time.
The most likely outcome is: The name (Conservative) stays the same; the assets (buildings, money, branch network) have continuity; the position as one of the top two is restored or remains. The contest is for the underlying foundations of their political beliefs. At the moment there are none, and they are intellectually exhausted. Just ask the question: What are coherent ideological underpinnings of the Daily Telegraph or the Spectator? None. Of the Mail you don't even ask the question.
This requires a Peel, Lincoln, Jenkins, Attlee, Thatcher, Blair+. But pragmatism is no longer any good. 'What counts is what works' is no use when that has lost its resonance.
Never mind Attlee and the Spectator, the central point is that the leadership is in the gift of the befuddled oldies who gave Truss a landslide.
Point taken, but. Not if the MPs decide it isn't; and secondly a Tory party with visibly nothing left in the way of seats and ideas is ripe for the good sort of entryism from people who see that Labour is currently full of very bright young hopefuls, 480 of them on the green benches, and want to look 5-10 years ahead to when the alternative will be needed. The Tory party of 10 years time is where to look now if you are 16-30 and want a career in politics. Centre right Zoomers to replace the ageing Boomers?
The presupposes that said youngsters wanting a career in politics are without political leanings and will simply go wherever they think they can best achieve power. I doubt if anyone who is without political beliefs can succeed in politics.
Centrist political beliefs are entirely consistent with being in any of the 3 major parties. They all believe in: capitalism, state intervention, welfare state, NHS, free education, private education (look carefully!), sound defence, NATO, the international order, global trade, agricultural protectionism, managed migration, very gradual net zero, rolling over trillions of debt, vast state managed expenditure. The differences at the centre are entirely trivial.
Labour activists in Brighton have been sent out en masse to Worthing West this morning, seeking to overturn Peter Bottomley's 15k majority. They seem pretty confident of taking it, and the bookies agree. Who'd have thought it?
Here’s an interesting story, what do we think given the headlines Sunak got for missing the end of the D-Day commemorations?
“US vice president Kamala Harris will attend the international Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland this weekend, where she will meet with Volodymyr Zelensky and address world leaders.
Ms Harris, who will spend less than 24 hours at the gathering in Lucerne, will be standing in for president Joe Biden at the event. The president will be just ending his participation at the G7 summit in Italy and returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser for his re-election campaign in Los Angeles.”
“Returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser” is code for “tucked up in bed with a horlicks” isn’t it?
Ha possibly. I suspect that there’s only so many days they can keep him ‘awake and alert’ before he needs some time to recover.
The different media environment in the US, with partisan ‘news’ channels, probably means that this won’t cut through in the same way as does in the UK. Fox News will run all day with it, but they’re preaching to the choir of conservatives who already dislike the guy.
On the substance of the summit, I think there’s a real opportunity for Ukraine in the coming months, with evidence of Russian air defences being short in both numbers and capability, and vulnerable to being taken out by small drones. If Ukraine can achieve air superiority, they have a real opportunity to gain significant ground over the summer.
I wondered whether the cash from Russian assets will help cover the risk of a Trump win. Presumably he won’t mind selling them arms in return for that cash.
Interesting point, it does take away a lot of the US Conservative arguments against funding Ukraine (over domestic priorities), if the funding is coming from frozen Russian assets rather than the US Treasury.
As I predicted, the last lot of funding was passed with the argument that the vast majority of the money was going to US defence contractors, and supporting tens of thousands of American jobs in Republican States and Districts. There’s several new ammunition factories under construction in the States at the moment.
It was never about the money. Destroying Russia’s military capability, in return for spending a tiny proportion of US GDP, is an incredibly good deal for the USA.
Betting post Great Yarmouth bet365 Lab 1/3 Ref 7/2 Con 11/2
Reform will do well here but I don't believe exclusively at the expense of the Tories, i think their surge will turn this into a three way scrap and given the big majority in place, 11/2 has to be the value here DYOR
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
I thought the Gambling Commission regulated licence holders (i.e. bookies) rather than punters?
They also do the equivalent of monitoring insider trading for betting. Its a grey area, so being part of NU10K or whatever he will face an investigation, some joshing from his colleagues and nothing else.
Would he not have to be in a position to actually affect the outcome to be in real trouble, rather than simply aware of something that may or may not be announced in the future?
This situation sounds like a groom in a stable knowing who’s the lame horse and who’s the strong horse before a race.
(1)A person commits an offence if he— (a)cheats at gambling
Examples are given but they are not defined as comprehensive, so it comes down to an interpretation of cheating.
Phil Iveys edge sorting is the biggest test case so far where he was found to be a cheat in civil court and it did create a lower bar for what is considered cheating:
"This could be one of the most significant judgments in criminal law for many years, if as the Supreme Court suggest, a new test for dishonesty is applied. Since Ghosh juries have been told that defendants are only guilty if the dishonest conduct involved in the offence was dishonest by the standards of ordinary reasonable and honest people and also that they must have realised that ordinary honest people would regard their behaviour as dishonest. If this second limb of the test is to disappear, it might make convictions for dishonesty related offences easier to obtain, particularly in the more complex cases, such as those involving financial fraud.”
The Phil Ivey case was astonishing to follow, but also an example of just how far professionals will go to find an edge. Literally an edge in this case.
I think he was harshly treated for what its worth. And an establishment friend of the PM will get the opposite kid glove treatment.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
I thought the Gambling Commission regulated licence holders (i.e. bookies) rather than punters?
They also do the equivalent of monitoring insider trading for betting. Its a grey area, so being part of NU10K or whatever he will face an investigation, some joshing from his colleagues and nothing else.
Would he not have to be in a position to actually affect the outcome to be in real trouble, rather than simply aware of something that may or may not be announced in the future?
This situation sounds like a groom in a stable knowing who’s the lame horse and who’s the strong horse before a race.
(1)A person commits an offence if he— (a)cheats at gambling
Examples are given but they are not defined as comprehensive, so it comes down to an interpretation of cheating.
Phil Iveys edge sorting is the biggest test case so far where he was found to be a cheat in civil court and it did create a lower bar for what is considered cheating:
"This could be one of the most significant judgments in criminal law for many years, if as the Supreme Court suggest, a new test for dishonesty is applied. Since Ghosh juries have been told that defendants are only guilty if the dishonest conduct involved in the offence was dishonest by the standards of ordinary reasonable and honest people and also that they must have realised that ordinary honest people would regard their behaviour as dishonest. If this second limb of the test is to disappear, it might make convictions for dishonesty related offences easier to obtain, particularly in the more complex cases, such as those involving financial fraud.”
The Phil Ivey case was astonishing to follow, but also an example of just how far professionals will go to find an edge. Literally an edge in this case.
The fact the casinos agreed to all their demands and they never touched the cards, still incredible the casino managed to win the case.
Electoral Calculus has got the seat down as a Labour gain, but not by much. Isn't an LD gain more likely in that neck of the woods? Anyone know which is likely to present the greater challenge?
I'd have thought her personal reputation was such that she would lose against the office cat if it stood but if neither Labour nor the LDs step strategically aside her chances of returning to the House to reinvigorate the Conservative Party must be quite good.
5 solid pages of stiff, centrist, earnest PB dad-waffle, entirely devoid of wit, insight, or notable intelligence. Not a single decent joke or sparkling observation, and introduced by one of the dullest headers in recent PB history
"The far right has struggled to make an electoral impact in the UK, over many elections and many incarnations: Reform UK, the Brexit Party, UKIP, and earlier iterations."
None of those are or were far right, with the possible exception of the post-Farage UKIP. Thatcherite liberalism with vague 'populist' rhetoric is not far right anymore than the Green Party is far left.
Tbh honest, I always struggle with the separation of far right (or left) and hard right (or left). Some people use far where others use hard, and I can never remember which is actually the most accepted way around.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
I thought the Gambling Commission regulated licence holders (i.e. bookies) rather than punters?
They also do the equivalent of monitoring insider trading for betting. Its a grey area, so being part of NU10K or whatever he will face an investigation, some joshing from his colleagues and nothing else.
Would he not have to be in a position to actually affect the outcome to be in real trouble, rather than simply aware of something that may or may not be announced in the future?
This situation sounds like a groom in a stable knowing who’s the lame horse and who’s the strong horse before a race.
(1)A person commits an offence if he— (a)cheats at gambling
Examples are given but they are not defined as comprehensive, so it comes down to an interpretation of cheating.
Phil Iveys edge sorting is the biggest test case so far where he was found to be a cheat in civil court and it did create a lower bar for what is considered cheating:
"This could be one of the most significant judgments in criminal law for many years, if as the Supreme Court suggest, a new test for dishonesty is applied. Since Ghosh juries have been told that defendants are only guilty if the dishonest conduct involved in the offence was dishonest by the standards of ordinary reasonable and honest people and also that they must have realised that ordinary honest people would regard their behaviour as dishonest. If this second limb of the test is to disappear, it might make convictions for dishonesty related offences easier to obtain, particularly in the more complex cases, such as those involving financial fraud.”
The Phil Ivey case was astonishing to follow, but also an example of just how far professionals will go to find an edge. Literally an edge in this case.
The fact the casinos agreed to all their demands and they never touched the cards, still incredible the casino managed to win the case.
Yes, you’d have thought that at some point, someone at the casino might have clocked what was going on. Well before Ivey turned up to play, and then again when he started saying silly things like turn the card around because I’m superstitious.
The power of asymmetric information, that seems bloody stupid with the benefit of hindsight, but the cards were approved for use in casinos.
I agree with the header. As an ex-Conservative voter I was both frustrated and saddened by the continual right-ward lurches of the party, leaving me behind in an electoral wilderness with no viable LibDem presence and (at the time) Corbyn...
I disagree that the Conservative brand has value. They have destroyed whatever value they had and the only value they have left is the deluded belief by habitual Cons. voters that it can all come good again if they can just get the right leader. The Party is choc-full of nutters and swivel-eyed loons and it needs a d*mn good cleaning out.
A wipeout and some years in the wilderness should eject quite a few idiots and chinless wonders. What a pity that we have to endure the rather grey non-person that is Starmer. I only hope that he has his crazies under control.
And the invisible man (Ed Davey)? We will have to see what is in there when the bandages are unwound.
The 'Conservative' or 'Tory' name or brand may well still have value. There is, so far, no evidence for about a 100 years of trying that a new name or brand can get into the top two in terms of seats. In FPTP only the top two count WRT leading government, the others count in respect of which of the two it is at any time.
The most likely outcome is: The name (Conservative) stays the same; the assets (buildings, money, branch network) have continuity; the position as one of the top two is restored or remains. The contest is for the underlying foundations of their political beliefs. At the moment there are none, and they are intellectually exhausted. Just ask the question: What are coherent ideological underpinnings of the Daily Telegraph or the Spectator? None. Of the Mail you don't even ask the question.
This requires a Peel, Lincoln, Jenkins, Attlee, Thatcher, Blair+. But pragmatism is no longer any good. 'What counts is what works' is no use when that has lost its resonance.
Never mind Attlee and the Spectator, the central point is that the leadership is in the gift of the befuddled oldies who gave Truss a landslide.
Point taken, but. Not if the MPs decide it isn't; and secondly a Tory party with visibly nothing left in the way of seats and ideas is ripe for the good sort of entryism from people who see that Labour is currently full of very bright young hopefuls, 480 of them on the green benches, and want to look 5-10 years ahead to when the alternative will be needed. The Tory party of 10 years time is where to look now if you are 16-30 and want a career in politics. Centre right Zoomers to replace the ageing Boomers?
The presupposes that said youngsters wanting a career in politics are without political leanings and will simply go wherever they think they can best achieve power. I doubt if anyone who is without political beliefs can succeed in politics.
Centrist political beliefs are entirely consistent with being in any of the 3 major parties. They all believe in: capitalism, state intervention, welfare state, NHS, free education, private education (look carefully!), sound defence, NATO, the international order, global trade, agricultural protectionism, managed migration, very gradual net zero, rolling over trillions of debt, vast state managed expenditure. The differences at the centre are entirely trivial.
The foundation is the same. The outside influences, approaches and calibre of delivery tend to vary significantly - 2010 was about as close as those got.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
I agree that Farage must be stopped in his tracks, but what happens if the Tories do go down to a big defeat, and then decide, and I think this is likely to happen, that they were not right wing enough, and Farage is welcomed with open arms, you then end up being a Farage enabler. I could not vote labour why Corbyn and his cronies were in charge, Labour under Starmer learnt their lesson, I'm not sure the Torys are ready to tack back to the centre
When Corbyn led Labour I did not vote for them at either election, it was a matter of principle.
I was tempted in 2017 but knew that if I did the Corbynites would claim it as a vote for them. That is exactly what happened as BigJohnOwls constantly crows about how many votes Corbyn got in 2017 despite the fact that millions of those voters despised Corbyn's brand of politics and he still lost. 2019 gave a far better indication of what people really thought of Corbyn.
I can understand why BigG has voted Tory but I believe he would always have found one fig leaf or another to hide behind as he did when he voted for Johnson in 2019. People are different but I could not bring myself to vote for an MP and government that I knew were useless. Whether he likes it or not his vote will be seen as endorsing Miller/Johnson/Truss/Sunak and their politics.
Re your last paragraph, even if that’s true about finding one fig leaf or another, shouldn’t we be paying attention to that? As a betting site, first and foremost I mean?
Doesn’t it suggest that possibly the current opinion polls are over-egging the demise of the Conservatives?
I’m not saying that this is definitely happening but that’s three people I now know who told me they weren’t going to vote Conservative who now are.
Quite apart from the unsavoury nature of personal abuse, we should be aware as punters .
My guess is that Tories will rise about 5 points at Reform's expense by polling day. I hope that proves to be the case and BigG is an indicator of that happening. So in a betting sense it is a straw in the wind.
I have no issue with BigG returning to the fold, I would have bet money he always would.
However, he opens himself up to ridicule by earnestly telling us for months how he detests the politics of Boris Johnson and Robin Miller and that he's disgusted by Sunak's antics at D-Day only to turn round and vote for them at the last moment again.
Nothing would have induced me to vote Labour while it was dominated by Corbyn.
Nothing would have induced me to vote Labour under Corbyn, because his party was riddled with anti-semites. So it's a slightly different thing - the racists seem to have gone over to Reform in this instance.
And perhaps that _is_ a reason to vote Conservative this time around. Labour have won this by a country mile, the risk now is the Tories face such a staggering defeat that what's left gets reverse-taken-over by Farage and then we have the choice between Labour and a really nasty hard right lot far worse than the current Conservative party for the next decade or more. Perhaps forever.
I'm still not voting Conservative. But, if you're a traditional one nation Tory type, I can understand why you might be holding your nose and voting to save your party from the Faragist Intifada this time around.
Surely that depends on the local Tory candidate. For example in Fareham and Waterlooville you have the option of voting Reform but if you vote for Suella to keep Reform out you may well get Farage as the post election Tory leader.
Labour activists in Brighton have been sent out en masse to Worthing West this morning, seeking to overturn Peter Bottomley's 15k majority. They seem pretty confident of taking it, and the bookies agree. Who'd have thought it?
14k majority, Labour start from 30%, 207 safer seats than it, I think they're very likely to take it even if polls narrow
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
I agree that Farage must be stopped in his tracks, but what happens if the Tories do go down to a big defeat, and then decide, and I think this is likely to happen, that they were not right wing enough, and Farage is welcomed with open arms, you then end up being a Farage enabler. I could not vote labour why Corbyn and his cronies were in charge, Labour under Starmer learnt their lesson, I'm not sure the Torys are ready to tack back to the centre
When Corbyn led Labour I did not vote for them at either election, it was a matter of principle.
I was tempted in 2017 but knew that if I did the Corbynites would claim it as a vote for them. That is exactly what happened as BigJohnOwls constantly crows about how many votes Corbyn got in 2017 despite the fact that millions of those voters despised Corbyn's brand of politics and he still lost. 2019 gave a far better indication of what people really thought of Corbyn.
I can understand why BigG has voted Tory but I believe he would always have found one fig leaf or another to hide behind as he did when he voted for Johnson in 2019. People are different but I could not bring myself to vote for an MP and government that I knew were useless. Whether he likes it or not his vote will be seen as endorsing Miller/Johnson/Truss/Sunak and their politics.
Re your last paragraph, even if that’s true about finding one fig leaf or another, shouldn’t we be paying attention to that? As a betting site, first and foremost I mean?
Doesn’t it suggest that possibly the current opinion polls are over-egging the demise of the Conservatives?
I’m not saying that this is definitely happening but that’s three people I now know who told me they weren’t going to vote Conservative who now are.
Quite apart from the unsavoury nature of personal abuse, we should be aware as punters .
My guess is that Tories will rise about 5 points at Reform's expense by polling day. I hope that proves to be the case and BigG is an indicator of that happening. So in a betting sense it is a straw in the wind.
I have no issue with BigG returning to the fold, I would have bet money he always would.
However, he opens himself up to ridicule by earnestly telling us for months how he detests the politics of Boris Johnson and Robin Miller and that he's disgusted by Sunak's antics at D-Day only to turn round and vote for them at the last moment again.
Nothing would have induced me to vote Labour while it was dominated by Corbyn.
Nothing would have induced me to vote Labour under Corbyn, because his party was riddled with anti-semites. So it's a slightly different thing - the racists seem to have gone over to Reform in this instance.
And perhaps that _is_ a reason to vote Conservative this time around. Labour have won this by a country mile, the risk now is the Tories face such a staggering defeat that what's left gets reverse-taken-over by Farage and then we have the choice between Labour and a really nasty hard right lot far worse than the current Conservative party for the next decade or more. Perhaps forever.
I'm still not voting Conservative. But, if you're a traditional one nation Tory type, I can understand why you might be holding your nose and voting to save your party from the Faragist Intifada this time around.
I'd note that the Palestine Solidarity movement and fellow travellers have significant racism in their politics, which was a big chunk of how Corbyn tripped himself up.
Betting post Great Yarmouth bet365 Lab 1/3 Ref 7/2 Con 11/2
Reform will do well here but I don't believe exclusively at the expense of the Tories, i think their surge will turn this into a three way scrap and given the big majority in place, 11/2 has to be the value here DYOR
Nice one. Brandon Lewis got 65.8% in 2019; he should be able to hang on, as Reform will limit the swing to Labour. (You're still wrong about Wes, Jess and Shabana though )
Interesting article and broadly speaking I agree. I have been genuinely asking Tory voters what positive reasons there are to vote Tory for the last few weeks. The summary of their answers is: 1) Keir Starmer will increase your taxes, no mention is generally made at this point about the fact that the tax base is higher than it has been for decades, the tax cuts the Tories are ‘promising’ are unfunded and the reality is that their tax cuts are either undeliverable or will increase the debts for our kids to pay. 2) Ed Davey was responsible for the post office a decade ago and, given they presumably think he is the most intelligent man in the world, should have seen the post office scandal before anyone else. They tend not to mention the significant numbers of Tory ministers who missed the post office scandal until ITV pointed it out to them earlier this year. 3) If we don’t vote Tory Nigel Farage will be emboldened and he is ‘far right’. This generally comes before they suggest that people should add Tory and Reform votes together to get some hypothetical ‘right wing support’ number and acknowledge that there is a good chance that Farage will take over the Tories after the election so a Tory vote and a reform vote may, or may not, be the same thing. What I have not heard (for months if not years) is a Tory voter who can give me a reason to vote Tory which relates to the Tory party and their actions and values. It is only ever about the avoidance of something which they insist will be worse. I am at heart a voter of the radical centre, I dislike the extremes on both sides. But I have to say I have reached the stage where I have more respect for reform voters (or those who vote for the workers party) than I do for those sticking with the Tories. I disagree with pretty much all that those ‘extreme’ parties believe, but I respect the fact that they believe in something. If the Tories want to gain respect from me they need to stop seeing themselves as the natural party of managing the demise of the U.K. and regain some values of their own. At the moment I just see a vote for them as a vote for inevitable decline of the country.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.
Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.
It is a scenario! The death of the UK polling industry where every pollster including the ones employed by parties for private polls get it completely wrong.
It goes beyond polling - parties also have canvass returns to guide them. In your scenario the Tories are doing MUCH better than the headlines suggest. And yet when we look at what the Tories are doing, it demonstrates that if anything the polls aren't showing en ough of a rout.
If Tory last time voters were Tory this time, we would know. Tory activists are knocking doors and making calls. That data gets fed into their model alongside their own polling. And sets the direction for the campaign.
Sunak is being sent in to defend True Blue seats with 20k majorities. Ministers are pushing lines to not give Labour a super majority. Are saying its OK to put Farage on Tory leaflets. Are desperately pitching to their core vote.
They would not be doing any of those things if your scenario was in play. There could be an abrupt plot twist - at the last a few million decide to vote Tory after all. But that is hopium. It isn't rooted in reality.
So it could happen. It just very certainly won't.
My point is that a 150-200 seat outcome for Labour or Conservative is traditionally a very bad result. You don’t need the hype of the last few days to still have a monumentally bad result.
Having spent the last few decades, I’ve learned that Tory voters turn out on election day and should not be underestimated.
I would be delighted if that were not the case. The Tories will do badly, but I would be surprised if the result lives up to the hype.
The local election results would, I think, point to a result at around the ~200 seat mark. Very bad, but slightly better than 1997.
However, Sunak's campaign has so far been weaker than Major's.
I have shied away from making a prediction, but with 19 days to go I will now do so. I agree to a large extent with Jonathan. The shambling blue hordes of the Tory vote will turn out in sufficient numbers to stave off ELE. It will, in large part, be a vote against Labour, a reflex, a habit, a vote for the local candidate rather than for the leader or the government. But many will still, reluctantly, turn out.
Similarly, Labour voters will, to an extent, evaporate like the morning dew. Victory, seemingly inevitable, will not require everyone to add their nail to the coffin, and so reasons for other votes, or not voting will be found.
My predicted vote (seat) shares: CON 29% (205) LAB 38% (355) LDM 14% (45) GRN 4% (2) RFM 9% (2) 23 other British seats and 18 for NI. I'll put a full entry together for Farooq's competition soon too.
Important post. The locals were real votes, not polls and are a useful counter balance. My impression is that the Tory position has weakened a little since May, but not as much as the hype.
There is an awful lot of sense in what you and Lost Password say. Whilst 'polling' points us to something utterly seismic, history not so much, nor the real votes of May, nor indeed the real votes of the local by elections since the GE was called (albeit a very limited data set). We also have two of the MRPs within the last 2 weeks putting 150 to 200 firmly within range. Farage might have shifted that somewhat but Lab have also declined too. The more Labour to carry all becomes a narrative, the more the panicked natural Tories vote, see 1997 and 2001, both showing ELE all the way to polling day. Even at 19% with the first MRP, 72 seats were held, and thats with a big old Labour %. Unless the Tory vote starts to fold into Reform i think a stabilisation and old hens turnout to mid 20s and perhaps 28% or so is inevitable, and with that 150 seats plus, probaly 175 or so. The polling is making us confuse an utter humiliation losing 200 seats with glory. If they 'defend' all the 20k majorities thry are touching 100, all the 15ks and they are at 97 levels and above.......... We shall see
I think it's worth pointing out that my prediction would be historically awful for the Tories. A lower vote share than Major in 1997, lower even than in 1832. A huge loss of seats. One of the very rare instances of a government with a majority being replaced by the opposition winning a majority.
There's no point debating with Farage. He is what he is, he'll get the vote he gets. He's a vibe - a brainstem feeling of resentment about smoking in pubs and classic cars and silver service. You might as well debate a Hamlet ad from the 80s."
Betting post Great Yarmouth bet365 Lab 1/3 Ref 7/2 Con 11/2
Reform will do well here but I don't believe exclusively at the expense of the Tories, i think their surge will turn this into a three way scrap and given the big majority in place, 11/2 has to be the value here DYOR
Nice one. Brandon Lewis got 65.8% in 2019; he should be able to hang on, as Reform will limit the swing to Labour. (You're still wrong about Wes, Jess and Shabana though )
Brandon standon down! That's a factor needing incorporating of course And Wes and Jess I think are ok yes (wes more than jess) but I seriously believe Shabhana is in serious trouble, Yakoob has the big mo and Labour in Birmingham are struggling
"The far right has struggled to make an electoral impact in the UK, over many elections and many incarnations: Reform UK, the Brexit Party, UKIP, and earlier iterations."
None of those are or were far right, with the possible exception of the post-Farage UKIP. Thatcherite liberalism with vague 'populist' rhetoric is not far right anymore than the Green Party is far left.
Tbh honest, I always struggle with the separation of far right (or left) and hard right (or left). Some people use far where others use hard, and I can never remember which is actually the most accepted way around.
A sentence on where the actual views and policies, and where relevant the actual actions (eg Meloni) of far right X differ from extreme right Y and centre right Z, to say nothing of centre left W etc sheds more light than any number of labels.
Comments
The Sun will probably go cautious Labour with waffle about giving change a chance but warning that Labour need to stick to tax promises etc.
The Gambling Commission is making inquires into Craig Williams, a Conservative Party election candidate and former aide to Rishi Sunak, amid claims he placed a £100 bet on the date of the election days before the PM announced it.
...
It is understood the watchdog wrote to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information on anyone who stood to gain more than £199 by betting on a July election in the UK.
That's us lot in the database.
Not agreeing with you - for me your spouse is reacting to the surface factors not the more important underlying core, but thanks for dropping a pebble in the conversation pool this morning to make some ripples.
*Harry Cole of course but Harry Coke is better.
The overall point is right though, the Sun will have to go Labour. I wonder if the Mail will stick with the Tories this time though? The Times will surely come out for Labour and the others are obvious.
https://www.tiktok.com/@pslivestock/video/7294697356325293355?lang=en
https://www.tiktok.com/@meridithsoderberg/video/7299220171506388267
The Holy Trinity of success: luck, ability and sheer hard graft.
I'm all for the last two of these being celebrated and rewarded. But the greatest of these is luck. Conservatives used to acknowledge that, and the duty to others that came with success. Now, to a very very large degree, they don't.
Though it was somewhat cheaper back then:
James, 23 and from Great Stukeley, was educated at pounds 4,500-a-year Kimbolton School, near Peterborough.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/true-romance-or-just-a-microceleb-on-the-make-1158223.html
Farage is the real threat to not only the conservative party but the country with his pro Trump attitude and the best way for conservatives to defeat Farage is to vote conservative and that was our decision last night
The wheel turns.
Particularly if we get more crossover polls.
FOUSANDS OF 'EM!
I mistakenly assume that everyone has thought about this and made a choice or is at least inclined to a choice - a probable.
Some do know but say don't know to avoid offending me, Probably polite Tory. Say 20%
Some do know but are certainly not going to tell me. None of your business. Could even be LD. Say 10%
Some genuinely don't know and want to consider the pros and cons, - read the manifestos etc. less than 5%
Some don't know and don't care and won't vote. over 65%
@adampayne26
·
57m
.
@sophiealichurch
visits SW Norfolk — where locals say Truss is campaigning unusually hard to avoid another humiliation
"I've seen her all over the constituency the last few weeks...
"I do think there's a genuine chance she won't [win]"
Surely not...
https://x.com/adampayne26/status/1801913037177213162
If you want to shift them to the Centre ground you need to vote Lib Dem if you want to shift them right vote Reform.
Vote Tory and all you say is that it doesn’t matter how crap as a party we are our brand gets us x% of the vote - that after all is why Farage is so keen to merge with the Tory party
I have no issue with BigG returning to the fold, I would have bet money he always would.
However, he opens himself up to ridicule by earnestly telling us for months how he detests the politics of Boris Johnson and Robin Miller and that he's disgusted by Sunak's antics at D-Day only to turn round and vote for them at the last moment again.
Nothing would have induced me to vote Labour while it was dominated by Corbyn.
A generation ago, the dynamic of elite education was "you're fortunate to be here, and with that great fortune comes great responsibility." That message didn't always take, but it was there.
Now, there seems to be more "you're here because you're worth it." The toxic side of meritocracy.
Can't remember who came up with the critique of Thatcher- she wanted to recreate the Britain of her father, but ended up creating the Britain of her son- but there's a ring of truth to it.
As I predicted, the last lot of funding was passed with the argument that the vast majority of the money was going to US defence contractors, and supporting tens of thousands of American jobs in Republican States and Districts. There’s several new ammunition factories under construction in the States at the moment.
After all this heat and light, a 40/32 split giving us something 97/01 flavoured would feel like such an anticlimax!
I also think the entire long term future of Reform relies on them getting Farage into the House to make some speeches that go viral, like he did in Europe.
There's "I'm a loyal voter for someone else but don't want an argument". But there's also "I'm normally a loyal voter for you, but I'm not voting for you this time. I don't want a fight and don't entirely want to admit it to myself."
What Conservatives of the second type do this time is the difference between defeat, disaster and death for the party.
Anybody else get one, or was it just me?
And perhaps that _is_ a reason to vote Conservative this time around. Labour have won this by a country mile, the risk now is the Tories face such a staggering defeat that what's left gets reverse-taken-over by Farage and then we have the choice between Labour and a really nasty hard right lot far worse than the current Conservative party for the next decade or more. Perhaps forever.
I'm still not voting Conservative. But, if you're a traditional one nation Tory type, I can understand why you might be holding your nose and voting to save your party from the Faragist Intifada this time around.
This situation sounds like a groom in a stable knowing who’s the lame horse and who’s the strong horse before a race.
A strong central framework of policies and principles and activities with high economies of scale - together with devolved decision making and experimentation and an effective mechanism for sharing good ideas and best practice.
I call it glocalization. Local within Global.
None of those are or were far right, with the possible exception of the post-Farage UKIP. Thatcherite liberalism with vague 'populist' rhetoric is not far right anymore than the Green Party is far left.
But I think yiu are right that the mainstream political position is what it is in britain. What matters is the political parties' capacity to reflect that fact. That is why farage's brand of populism will only ever be a side show.
It's not going well. Got any tips?
Yours,
Rishi
Lee Anderson saying Islamists have 'taken control' of London.
Tice saying Anderson's comments are supported by 'millions of Britons'.
The Times finding out that 41 Reform candidates are Facebook friends with the leader of the New British Union, a poundshop Oswald Mosley type.
Reform are far right. Call them what they are. Far right.
(a)cheats at gambling
Examples are given but they are not defined as comprehensive, so it comes down to an interpretation of cheating.
Phil Iveys edge sorting is the biggest test case so far where he was found to be a cheat in civil court and it did create a lower bar for what is considered cheating:
https://www.leathesprior.co.uk/news/gamblers-take-note-the-law-on-dishonesty-has-changed
"This could be one of the most significant judgments in criminal law for many years, if as the Supreme Court suggest, a new test for dishonesty is applied. Since Ghosh juries have been told that defendants are only guilty if the dishonest conduct involved in the offence was dishonest by the standards of ordinary reasonable and honest people and also that they must have realised that ordinary honest people would regard their behaviour as dishonest. If this second limb of the test is to disappear, it might make convictions for dishonesty related offences easier to obtain, particularly in the more complex cases, such as those involving financial fraud.”
Tbf to Mary Elizabeth, she has no national role to play (I expect she's been VERY forcefully benched) so she may as well work the good folk of Norfolk.
However, local tip: I think North Norfolk will go back to the Lib Dems, with a smallish majority.
Great Yarmouth bet365
Lab 1/3
Ref 7/2
Con 11/2
Reform will do well here but I don't believe exclusively at the expense of the Tories, i think their surge will turn this into a three way scrap and given the big majority in place, 11/2 has to be the value here
DYOR
I'd have thought her personal reputation was such that she would lose against the office cat if it stood but if neither Labour nor the LDs step strategically aside her chances of returning to the House to reinvigorate the Conservative Party must be quite good.
*returns to Isaac Babel’s Odessan stories*
The power of asymmetric information, that seems bloody stupid with the benefit of hindsight, but the cards were approved for use in casinos.
Dear Peter,
Vote for me, or the dog gets it!
love,
Rishi
"The Machine Stops: Will Gompertz reviews EM Forster's work ★★★★★"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52821993
For example in Fareham and Waterlooville you have the option of voting Reform but if you vote for Suella to keep Reform out you may well get Farage as the post election Tory leader.
(You're still wrong about Wes, Jess and Shabana though
The summary of their answers is:
1) Keir Starmer will increase your taxes, no mention is generally made at this point about the fact that the tax base is higher than it has been for decades, the tax cuts the Tories are ‘promising’ are unfunded and the reality is that their tax cuts are either undeliverable or will increase the debts for our kids to pay.
2) Ed Davey was responsible for the post office a decade ago and, given they presumably think he is the most intelligent man in the world, should have seen the post office scandal before anyone else. They tend not to mention the significant numbers of Tory ministers who missed the post office scandal until ITV pointed it out to them earlier this year.
3) If we don’t vote Tory Nigel Farage will be emboldened and he is ‘far right’. This generally comes before they suggest that people should add Tory and Reform votes together to get some hypothetical ‘right wing support’ number and acknowledge that there is a good chance that Farage will take over the Tories after the election so a Tory vote and a reform vote may, or may not, be the same thing.
What I have not heard (for months if not years) is a Tory voter who can give me a reason to vote Tory which relates to the Tory party and their actions and values. It is only ever about the avoidance of something which they insist will be worse.
I am at heart a voter of the radical centre, I dislike the extremes on both sides. But I have to say I have reached the stage where I have more respect for reform voters (or those who vote for the workers party) than I do for those sticking with the Tories. I disagree with pretty much all that those ‘extreme’ parties believe, but I respect the fact that they believe in something.
If the Tories want to gain respect from me they need to stop seeing themselves as the natural party of managing the demise of the U.K. and regain some values of their own. At the moment I just see a vote for them as a vote for inevitable decline of the country.
It would be an epic defeat for the ages.
@gsoh31
There's no point debating with Farage. He is what he is, he'll get the vote he gets. He's a vibe - a brainstem feeling of resentment about smoking in pubs and classic cars and silver service. You might as well debate a Hamlet ad from the 80s."
https://x.com/gsoh31/status/1801722768821457165
And Wes and Jess I think are ok yes (wes more than jess) but I seriously believe Shabhana is in serious trouble, Yakoob has the big mo and Labour in Birmingham are struggling