For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
But if enough voters take your attitude, Robin Miller and three hundred and fifty or so more Robin Millers are returned. You are simply voting for a brand. It's like shopping in Marks and Spencer, simply because it is familiar, and you are comfortable. You feel you know what you are getting, despite all the evidence pointing out that quality and pricing are far more competitive elsewhere.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
I don't hate anyone - truly, it's a very wasteful emotion and life is much nicer when you don't have it.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
No. Both want to penalise and hurt others. They just differ in their targets.
Reminds me of an attempted comedy article i read once trying to make horseshoe theory seem stupid by...pointing to what the ideologies claimed to be about, not what they actually did, as proof they could not be the same in substance.
Rishi Sunak is put forward a close friend and former chairman of the BBC for a significant honour
Richard Sharp was Sunak’s boss at the investment bank Goldman Sachs
He was forced to quit as chairman of the BBC in June last year after The Sunday Times disclosed his involvement in helping secure a loan for Boris Johnson
Whitehall sources said that Sharp was initially nominated for a peerage. However, he is now expected to get another honour with suggestions it could be a knighthood
Peerages are vetted by the House of Lords Appointments Committee. Other honours are in PM's gift although they are submitted to Cabinet Office for 'probity and propriety' checks
Theresa May is also being put forward for a Companion of Honour
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
If you can’t refute snake oil salesmen, you have no business in public life.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
everyone things that the left/right political spectrum is a straight line, in fact it's a doughnut where the very far left and the very far right become indistinguishable authoritarian parties.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
We have this idea that administrative spending is wasted money - but admin needs to be done and if you don't explicitly employ staff to do the admin work, you end up with more expensive management doing the work instead.
Now a lot of time that does make sense, I would far rather control my own travel than someone else booking it (incorrectly) for me but in the NHS I suspect employing more admin staff would result in a fair number of productivity improvements simply because competent people would be doing admin work quickly, efficiently and competently .
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
You really seem very bitter
I post as honestly as I can and whether you or anyone else takes it seriously is not something I even think about
There are (tellingly) many words in Latin for 'destroy'. Delere implies complete erasure.
Just as tellingly, Rome never talked about going to war with Carthage, or any other state. They talked about going to war with the Carthaginians - which meant massacring women and children, and enslaving the survivors.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
But if enough voters take your attitude, Robin Miller and three hundred and fifty or so more Robin Millers are returned. You are simply voting for a brand. It's like shopping in Marks and Spencer, simply because it is familiar, and you are comfortable. You feel you know what you are getting, despite all the evidence pointing out that quality and pricing are far more competitive elsewhere.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
everyone things that the left/right political spectrum is a straight line, in fact it's a doughnut where the very far left and the very far right become indistinguishable authoritarian parties.
Sorry, but that's just wrong, it would mean that I would have more in common with Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch than I would with Tony Blair, Ed Davey or David Cameron, it doesn't pass the smell test for me.
I completely disagree with this header. Would I rather have the centre right represented by the current Conservative party, for all its faults and despite losing its way, or Reform?
You only have to ask the question to see how absurd the proposition is.
It also ignores the fact that the party has mainly lost its way because of the siren call of the fantasies and bigotry of Reform.
The lesson they need to learn from this hammering (and, of course, the failure of Reform to actually win seats) is that this has been a trip into a wilderness devoid of votes. If they want to win they need to get back to the centre, they need to ignore this absurd gender rubbish and all the other Trumpian memes, they need to focus on competence and the proper use of public funds and they need to concentrate on what is good for all of the UK, not just narrow segments that might vote for them.
The first three lessons the Conservatives need to learn:
1) Personal conduct matters. In particular if you bring in new laws and regulations you have to obey them yourselves.
2) Competence matters. Proper preparation and attention to detail is vital.
3) Crony capitalism and rentierism are not the same as wealth creation and a yearning for unearned money is not the same as proper work.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
We have this idea that administrative spending is wasted money - but admin needs to be done and if you don't explicitly employ staff to do the admin work, you end up with more expensive management doing the work instead.
Now a lot of time that does make sense, I would far rather control my own travel than someone else booking it (incorrectly) for me but in the NHS I suspect employing more admin staff would result in a fair number of productivity improvements simply because competent people would be doing admin work quickly, efficiently and competently .
How much of the 'admin' work is currently done by medical staff? if it's high i'd suggest having more specific admin staff could free up time for the medical staff.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
I don't think the Tories must be destroyed to learn a lesson or whatever, and I think might regret doing it. Later.
For now I think enough do want it or are excited to see it they are not thinking of what it could mean for a massive labour majority or what the opposition coukd become.
Kle, any majority over about fifty gives the Government a clear run with its policies. Even the most optimistic Conservative supporters accept Starmer is going to have something much larger, upwards of 150 in all probability. So a vote aimed at moderating it is a bit hard to fathom.
I don't think scaring people about unrestrained government will work, though I do think very big majorities breed arrogance and discourage critical self evaluation. A majority of 50 might conceivably lose if they cock up with rebels enough, a 150 majority never will.
But I was thinking more it probably ensures a second term, notwithstanding 2019 being overturned, and some people may regret giving such a cushion.
Personally I hope every election is at least competitive.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Rishi Sunak is put forward a close friend and former chairman of the BBC for a significant honour
Richard Sharp was Sunak’s boss at the investment bank Goldman Sachs
He was forced to quit as chairman of the BBC in June last year after The Sunday Times disclosed his involvement in helping secure a loan for Boris Johnson
Whitehall sources said that Sharp was initially nominated for a peerage. However, he is now expected to get another honour with suggestions it could be a knighthood
Peerages are vetted by the House of Lords Appointments Committee. Other honours are in PM's gift although they are submitted to Cabinet Office for 'probity and propriety' checks
Theresa May is also being put forward for a Companion of Honour
Sharps explanations were stupid and likely dishonest as a result. A classic example of always looking after the right sort.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
But if enough voters take your attitude, Robin Miller and three hundred and fifty or so more Robin Millers are returned. You are simply voting for a brand. It's like shopping in Marks and Spencer, simply because it is familiar, and you are comfortable. You feel you know what you are getting, despite all the evidence pointing out that quality and pricing are far more competitive elsewhere.
It is not happening here to be fair
You don't know that. Not a vote has been cast, and in the privacy of the polling booth no one will know if you put a cheeky cross next to brave Sir Robin's name. What harm can it do?(Multiplied by 10,000)
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
We have this idea that administrative spending is wasted money - but admin needs to be done and if you don't explicitly employ staff to do the admin work, you end up with more expensive management doing the work instead.
Now a lot of time that does make sense, I would far rather control my own travel than someone else booking it (incorrectly) for me but in the NHS I suspect employing more admin staff would result in a fair number of productivity improvements simply because competent people would be doing admin work quickly, efficiently and competently .
How much of the 'admin' work is currently done by medical staff? if it's high i'd suggest having more specific admin staff could free up time for the medical staff.
Good admin is all about that, and more than worth its cost. So many quick cuts of admin can just make things worse.
But there are reverse cases, and in fairness my anecdotal experience of NHS governance is not complimentary.
I don't think the Tories must be destroyed to learn a lesson or whatever, and I think might regret doing it. Later.
For now I think enough do want it or are excited to see it they are not thinking of what it could mean for a massive labour majority or what the opposition coukd become.
Kle, any majority over about fifty gives the Government a clear run with its policies. Even the most optimistic Conservative supporters accept Starmer is going to have something much larger, upwards of 150 in all probability. So a vote aimed at moderating it is a bit hard to fathom.
And actually a massive majority on less than 50% of the vote probably lessens (certainly doesn't increase) their moral authority - while it makes little difference to their ability to legislate.legislate.
That being said, I think the unthinking right wing populism and blind tory loyalty is going to wither away with the boomers. The real question is: what will the millenials do with their new found electoral power?
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
I think the difference is that the far left know we're a minority which brings good things like a sense of perspective and realism but some not so good things like feeling we're left because we've thought more or care more which isn't really true but they are comfortable tales to tell about ourselves.
The far right seem to think they are the majority, they are fed that comfortable lie by a media eager to push a right-wing agenda (almost like they get more money if the right wing are in control). This makes them think that anyone else being in charge is somehow cheating and they get angry about it.
If you deem enough things "far right" (like return of the death penalty for child murderers within the rule of law and with the usual judicial safeguards), then don't be surprised to wake up one morning and discover that the far right *are* in the majority.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
I think your wife is being very unfair on Ed Davey there - when it comes to Ed's testimony I expect he will be throwing very civil servants into the mix for not providing accurate information to him (now on one level that may be unfair but he was a newly elected MP thrust into a ministerial position without training and I expect that lack of familiarity was used against him to hide embarrassing facts).
Alan Bates is local to us and as a customer she knew him and is very much on the side of the SPM 's and Davey has not helped her attitude towards him with his 'clowning' around on water
The fact you know Davey is clowning around tells me he's having a brilliant campaign because he's getting news coverage that would not otherwise be being given.
Whoever designed the Lib Dems campaign knew they had to perform miracles to get coverage and his stunts have ensured he gets the last word most evenings - without those stunts I doubt they would be on the news at all...
Edit and I doubt your wife would have ever voted for the Lib Dems so the loss is a grand total of zero votes lost in a seat they won't win compared to a few (100,10s of thousands across the country)
Actually her friend some decades ago was a Lib Dem and she voted for her on several occasions
...some of her best friends were libdems?...
where have i heard that phrase construction before...
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.
Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.
It is a scenario! The death of the UK polling industry where every pollster including the ones employed by parties for private polls get it completely wrong.
It goes beyond polling - parties also have canvass returns to guide them. In your scenario the Tories are doing MUCH better than the headlines suggest. And yet when we look at what the Tories are doing, it demonstrates that if anything the polls aren't showing enough of a rout.
If Tory last time voters were Tory this time, we would know. Tory activists are knocking doors and making calls. That data gets fed into their model alongside their own polling. And sets the direction for the campaign.
Sunak is being sent in to defend True Blue seats with 20k majorities. Ministers are pushing lines to not give Labour a super majority. Are saying its OK to put Farage on Tory leaflets. Are desperately pitching to their core vote.
They would not be doing any of those things if your scenario was in play. There could be an abrupt plot twist - at the last a few million decide to vote Tory after all. But that is hopium. It isn't rooted in reality.
So it could happen. It just very certainly won't.
My point is that a 150-200 seat outcome for Labour or Conservative is traditionally a very bad result. You don’t need the hype of the last few days to still have a monumentally bad result.
Having spent the last few decades, I’ve learned that Tory voters turn out on election day and should not be underestimated.
I would be delighted if that were not the case. The Tories will do badly, but I would be surprised if the result lives up to the hype.
The local election results would, I think, point to a result at around the ~200 seat mark. Very bad, but slightly better than 1997.
However, Sunak's campaign has so far been weaker than Major's.
I have shied away from making a prediction, but with 19 days to go I will now do so. I agree to a large extent with Jonathan. The shambling blue hordes of the Tory vote will turn out in sufficient numbers to stave off ELE. It will, in large part, be a vote against Labour, a reflex, a habit, a vote for the local candidate rather than for the leader or the government. But many will still, reluctantly, turn out.
Similarly, Labour voters will, to an extent, evaporate like the morning dew. Victory, seemingly inevitable, will not require everyone to add their nail to the coffin, and so reasons for other votes, or not voting will be found.
My predicted vote (seat) shares: CON 29% (205) LAB 38% (355) LDM 14% (45) GRN 4% (2) RFM 9% (2) 23 other British seats and 18 for NI. I'll put a full entry together for Farooq's competition soon too.
The postal votes land on the doormats next week, and the boomers will be voting Reform in large numbers.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
I was at a workshop yesterday about digital health and a common complaint was how heterogeneous and decentralised the NHS is. In some ways, it is a single institution. In many other ways, it is anything but.
Rishi Sunak is put forward a close friend and former chairman of the BBC for a significant honour
Richard Sharp was Sunak’s boss at the investment bank Goldman Sachs
He was forced to quit as chairman of the BBC in June last year after The Sunday Times disclosed his involvement in helping secure a loan for Boris Johnson
Whitehall sources said that Sharp was initially nominated for a peerage. However, he is now expected to get another honour with suggestions it could be a knighthood
Peerages are vetted by the House of Lords Appointments Committee. Other honours are in PM's gift although they are submitted to Cabinet Office for 'probity and propriety' checks
Theresa May is also being put forward for a Companion of Honour
Another Tory politician. She'll replace the recently deceased - and considerably more deserving - Peter Higgs.
Whilst it might be a fun night to see the Tories eviscerated it could be a terrible hangover .
Reform are a cancer on UK politics because they want to use the Trump playbook . Make a load of people as angry as possible and feed them simplistic solutions and at the same time othering sections of the community .
I really don’t want to see Reform combining with the Tories post election as that will see a move further to the right .
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
The horseshoe theory of the political spectrum. At the extreme ends, they have an awful lot in common, and are closer to each other than to mainstream centrist beliefs.
I disagree either most of what James has written here.
I would like you see the Tory party destroyed, just as I would like to see the Labour Party destroyed.
I would like to see the Lib Dems squished into nothingness as well - destroyed is too powerful a word for such an insignificant bunch of non entities.
And I don't want Farage anywhere near power either.
But James' fundamental mistake is thinking the parties dictate how people vote. They do not. Get rid of the Tories an the Right will still be split pretty evenly between those of Cameroon tendency and the Faragistas. Get rid of the Labour Party and the Left will still be split fairly evenly between the Social Democrats and the Corbynistas.
Thinking a new centre right party will sweep away the threat of Farage or that the Starmerite Labour Party has buried the Corbynite threat is just wishful thinking. It is the exact mistake Macron has made in France and why we face the real and horrible prospect of a Le Pen presidency.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
OK then. What do the public want that governments aren't delivering?
Because I suspect that a lot of the shopping list is pairs of things where you can have one or the other but not both. Better public services and lower taxes is only the most blatant example.
An honest politician up against a fluent shyster will always struggle there, because it takes five minutes to demolish a five second slogan. And whilst the shysters tend to be thrown out next time (as we're seeing), that takes five years and their poison remains.
All Western governments over the last 3 or 4 decades have bought into the globalisation myth. The idea that increasing trade and increasing GDP makes their populations richer. It doesn't. It makes a small number of individuals and a larger number of multinational companies much richer but it leaves the vast majority of people behind. It has destroyed much of the US middle class and is doing the same to European middle and working classes.
Both the centre left and centre right have bought into this. It is the main mast of both the EU and all the other free trade agreements around the world. Those 'honest politicians you talk about are just as much shysters as the Farages and Le Pens. They are just shilling for a different master and are better at hiding it.
I will believe a politician is really taking things seriously and looking after the best interests of the people when they start treating the multinationals as threats to democracy rather than friends, when they start putting their own people ahead of their friend's company's profits.
That being said, I think the unthinking right wing populism and blind tory loyalty is going to wither away with the boomers. The real question is: what will the millenials do with their new found electoral power?
They'll do what GenX tell them to do. It's our turn.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
everyone things that the left/right political spectrum is a straight line, in fact it's a doughnut where the very far left and the very far right become indistinguishable authoritarian parties.
Sorry, but that's just wrong, it would mean that I would have more in common with Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch than I would with Tony Blair, Ed Davey or David Cameron, it doesn't pass the smell test for me.
I don't think that's true, because your examples are not rrally far left or far right.
They are more extreme than the centre in the UK, but that is not the same thing at all. It's at the truly extreme ends that the actual actions become blurred together.
I'm talking literal Communists and Fascists, or their near cousins, and what they do not the twisted ideologies they cover themselves in to give thuggery some grandiloquent gloss.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
I think the difference is that the far left know we're a minority which brings good things like a sense of perspective and realism but some not so good things like feeling we're left because we've thought more or care more which isn't really true but they are comfortable tales to tell about ourselves.
The far right seem to think they are the majority, they are fed that comfortable lie by a media eager to push a right-wing agenda (almost like they get more money if the right wing are in control). This makes them think that anyone else being in charge is somehow cheating and they get angry about it.
If you deem enough things "far right" (like return of the death penalty for child murderers within the rule of law and with the usual judicial safeguards), then don't be surprised to wake up one morning and discover that the far right *are* in the majority.
You've put a lot of words into my mouth that I didn't say. I am opposed to the death penalty in all circumstances because as we know people can be wrongly convicted and it's very hard to say "sorry we know you didn't do it" to a corpse. But I haven't said that it's far-right to want such a policy.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
Before I head out a further report from exmouth since it was the subject of a threadheader and we are about halfway through the campaign
Number of leaflets through the door zero Number of canvassers that have visited zero Number of election posters in my neighbourhood zero Signs that there is an election on none whatsoever
People moaning about how we still need a functioning Tory party after the election need to reflect on the fact that it's the Tory party that is bringing about their own destruction . It's not the job of the electorate to keep the balance of left and right and no party deserves to survive, or carry on in its current form, so the Tories are going to get battered because no one sane is voting Tory to have five more years of the shite we've had for the past decade. The public majority should get what the public want, no matter how much it upsets the losing side. Sometimes it doesn't work out (Brexit, but not because the people voted for it, but because there was no plan, and the actors involved were all sub optimal). I don't agree that if the Tories go under that the Far Right will take over. I just don't believe that Britain is an extreme (left or right) country. I might be wrong, but if I am, then that's what the people want. I'll be paddling an inner tube over to Calais.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
NHS is not a single organization, but four.
Are any doing OK? Would be good to learn from them, since even if the problem were money, an organisation cannot sustain itself expecting more money will always be there.
This is 1992 all over again. Vote Tory to prevent a Labour landslide and stifle Farage, add in the 3 million ex pat Con voters and we have a Tory majority. PPE contract? Fill yet boots. And can I have a look at your tractor porn?
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
everyone things that the left/right political spectrum is a straight line, in fact it's a doughnut where the very far left and the very far right become indistinguishable authoritarian parties.
Sorry, but that's just wrong, it would mean that I would have more in common with Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch than I would with Tony Blair, Ed Davey or David Cameron, it doesn't pass the smell test for me.
I did use the terms 'very far left' and 'very far right' deliberately. Jeremy Corbyn is as far, if not further, from the 'very far left' as he is from the Liberal Democrats. The same goes for Farage and the 'very far right'.
Before I head out a further report from exmouth since it was the subject of a threadheader and we are about halfway through the campaign
Number of leaflets through the door zero Number of canvassers that have visited zero Number of election posters in my neighbourhood zero Signs that there is an election on none whatsoever
I've seen one LD diamond, someone who always puts one up, and fewer than usual.
Very disappointing so far. But I know the MP has been in the town and even his 20k majority is under threat so I'm sure I'll get at least one leaflet.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. I know the press have to sell tomorrow’s chip wrap, but it’s all a bit silly. We know mid campaign polls can be bollocks, so why do folk get obsessed by them.
Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
Never underestimate the Tories, their vote will turn out and even if they do badly their seat count will be nearer 200 than 100.
It is a scenario! The death of the UK polling industry where every pollster including the ones employed by parties for private polls get it completely wrong.
It goes beyond polling - parties also have canvass returns to guide them. In your scenario the Tories are doing MUCH better than the headlines suggest. And yet when we look at what the Tories are doing, it demonstrates that if anything the polls aren't showing enough of a rout.
If Tory last time voters were Tory this time, we would know. Tory activists are knocking doors and making calls. That data gets fed into their model alongside their own polling. And sets the direction for the campaign.
Sunak is being sent in to defend True Blue seats with 20k majorities. Ministers are pushing lines to not give Labour a super majority. Are saying its OK to put Farage on Tory leaflets. Are desperately pitching to their core vote.
They would not be doing any of those things if your scenario was in play. There could be an abrupt plot twist - at the last a few million decide to vote Tory after all. But that is hopium. It isn't rooted in reality.
So it could happen. It just very certainly won't.
My point is that a 150-200 seat outcome for Labour or Conservative is traditionally a very bad result. You don’t need the hype of the last few days to still have a monumentally bad result.
Having spent the last few decades, I’ve learned that Tory voters turn out on election day and should not be underestimated.
I would be delighted if that were not the case. The Tories will do badly, but I would be surprised if the result lives up to the hype.
I don’t agree with everything you’ve written today but on this point I think you’re right.
I’m still proposing a c. 160 seat Labour majority with figures something like:
Labour 39% Cons 25% LibDem 14% Reform 13% Green 4% SNP 2%
With seats looking something like:
Labour 405 Cons 140 LibDems 55 Reform 3 Greens 2 SNP 15
Labour majority c. 160
That will be a huge result for Labour but would leave the Conservatives with a sufficient number to fight out their future. They may lurch to the right but eventually they will come back.
There is ALWAYS a place for a fiscally responsible, economically competent, party of the centre-right in Britain. If the Conservatives are going to lose this election it’s primarily because they lost that mantle. They will regain it but not for some time.
This is 1992 all over again. Vote Tory to prevent a Labour landslide and stifle Farage, add in the 3 million ex pat Con voters and we have a Tory majority. PPE contract? Fill yet boots. And can I have a look at your tractor porn?
So pollsters just to be massively wrong or a Tory surge in the last few weeks?
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
Especially as I expect a 7 figure sum of people to go through exactly the same process before election day. It is what it is and someone's choice is not a reason to have a go. In fact, given the last 8 years since 'the event' I'd expect flip flopping to be constant and the norm amongst a great swathe. Its been turmoil on turmoil
Before I head out a further report from exmouth since it was the subject of a threadheader and we are about halfway through the campaign
Number of leaflets through the door zero Number of canvassers that have visited zero Number of election posters in my neighbourhood zero Signs that there is an election on none whatsoever
that's odd, I'm in a very safe labour ward in what should be a safe labour seat and have had 4 leaflets 1 set of canvassers and a leaflet saying that canvassers called a few Labour and Reform posters but not many.
I think that Baggy Shankar is worried about Reform.
I don't think the Tories must be destroyed to learn a lesson or whatever, and I think might regret doing it. Later.
For now I think enough do want it or are excited to see it they are not thinking of what it could mean for a massive labour majority or what the opposition coukd become.
Kle, any majority over about fifty gives the Government a clear run with its policies. Even the most optimistic Conservative supporters accept Starmer is going to have something much larger, upwards of 150 in all probability. So a vote aimed at moderating it is a bit hard to fathom.
And actually a massive majority on less than 50% of the vote probably lessens (certainly doesn't increase) their moral authority - while it makes little difference to their ability to legislate.legislate.
Also likely to make party discipline looser.
Yes, large majorities certainly mke discipline trickier.
This is 1992 all over again. Vote Tory to prevent a Labour landslide and stifle Farage, add in the 3 million ex pat Con voters and we have a Tory majority. PPE contract? Fill yet boots. And can I have a look at your tractor porn?
Wait. You’re predicting a Conservative win?
That’s bold!!!!!
I mean, the opinion polls are nothing like1992 but hey!
Whilst it might be a fun night to see the Tories eviscerated it could be a terrible hangover .
Reform are a cancer on UK politics because they want to use the Trump playbook . Make a load of people as angry as possible and feed them simplistic solutions and at the same time othering sections of the community .
I really don’t want to see Reform combining with the Tories post election as that will see a move further to the right .
If Reform outpoll the Tories I'd expect an eager merger, even though I imagine the Tories would still have many more MPs.
If it's close I expect some major Tory defections and a civil war.
If it's just that the Tories are hammered and Reform we're a big part of that I not expect a merger, just a huge swing to the right.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
Morning everyone.
I agree with your point above, because I do tend to think PB often has something of a blind spot as to the causes of a phenomenon like Corbyn. I think that's because PB does tend to default to the cautiously technocratic, and somewhat fiscally conservative centre-right, regarding that as the Centre. There is still a very interesting range of views on here, though, generally tolerantly expressed.
Agree. The problem is that decency in an era of comfort can become weakness.
Like it or not, the wests lifestyle is propped up by the treasures of empire, which didn't end with the empires but lingered on, albeit decaying. The decay is now I believe at the root of the culture war as our current lifestyles are no longer sustainable and the reforms needed are incompatible with remaining in power in a democracy.
Or is it. It needs leaders who are decent people but prepared to do very undecent things for the greater good. Churchill was prepared to sink the French Fleet at Mers El Kebir and Thatcher the Belgrano. Both horrible things to do.
That is the conundrum of leadership. You need decent people whos life experience gives them the backbone to do very undecent things for the greater good. In the west, it is now so long sunce people experienced real, grinding, hardship that this quality among the decent is in very short supply.
At the moment it manifests most in allowing five million working age people to sit at home on benefits, because stopping that involves a combination of being harsh to the point of nastiness as well as expensive long training/support to get those people working.
So the easy option is taken of importing the thick end of 700,000 peoole a year to fill the vacancies, the result of which is a housing crisis that benefits their landlord mates but will spawn genuiniely nasty results if reform is not rapid.
Late to the party so apologies for no doubt repeating comments below but the header is a deeply flawed piece of thinking.
If the Conservative Party is destroyed - as it very well might be - what takes its place?
If the Conservative Party is destroyed - which we can think of as fewer than 30 MPs and finishing clearly behind Reform in the popular vote - who is left standing on that part of the political spectrum when the dust clears?
Put another way: how far do the Tories have to fall before their position becomes irrecoverable?
The simple answer is that if the Tories do suffer a defeat more catastrophic than Labour in 1931 or the Liberals in 1918, then it is Reform that stands triumphant, ready to inherit the right-of-centre. Not merely on momentum and dynamics (though very much that) but out of pure dominance. And that would be even worse than a reverse takeover.
Yes, a reverse takeover brings a long-established brand to Farage, as well as data and cultural memory (for what those are worth: this election suggests not all that much), but it also brings a degree of mitigation and a large body of members and activists who are still pragmatic at core. That's the same sort of mitigation that the PLP, local councillors and experienced activists brought to Labour during the Corbyn years.
By contrast, an outright replacement means pure Faragism wins. Pure grievance. Pure Trumpism. Simple, loud solutions to complex problems.
And against a Starmer-led Labour, which despite an impending historic victory is neither all that skilled (never mind experienced) at the politics of governing, nor ambitious in its scope - and which faces a still-underacknowledged scale of challenge - I'd expect the opposition to be leading the polls by 2025. This is not 1997 again. There is no new centre-left hegemony.
The notion that Faragism has a ceiling on its vote of around 20% seems fanciful. Time was when that was true of the far right in France (that time being 2002, when it was tested and a deeply flawed incumbent still gained an enormous landslide on the values of the republic); whereas now the far right is normalised there, as in the US, as in many European countries. We are not that different. It's very easy to see how it happens here too. And the biggest step is Reform actively displacing, out-competing and rendering redundant the Tories.
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
everyone things that the left/right political spectrum is a straight line, in fact it's a doughnut where the very far left and the very far right become indistinguishable authoritarian parties.
Sorry, but that's just wrong, it would mean that I would have more in common with Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch than I would with Tony Blair, Ed Davey or David Cameron, it doesn't pass the smell test for me.
I did use the terms 'very far left' and 'very far right' deliberately. Jeremy Corbyn is as far, if not further, from the 'very far left' as he is from the Liberal Democrats. The same goes for Farage and the 'very far right'.
Fair enough - I thought that when you were talking about very far left you were talking about people like Corbyn, that's what most people do here (I'm more fully automated luxury communism myself)
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
I’ll scroll back to see what that’s all about ref. @Big_G_NorthWales but if it’s a consolation to him, my Surrey tory friend is going through the same inner turmoil. Having told me she was voting Lib Dem she now seems massively conflicted. She says she doesn’t know who she is going to vote for. She intensely dislikes the nastiness of the current tory party and is in despair about the direction they have gone. But she has voted for them all her life.
I don't think the Tories must be destroyed to learn a lesson or whatever, and I think might regret doing it. Later.
For now I think enough do want it or are excited to see it they are not thinking of what it could mean for a massive labour majority or what the opposition coukd become.
Kle, any majority over about fifty gives the Government a clear run with its policies. Even the most optimistic Conservative supporters accept Starmer is going to have something much larger, upwards of 150 in all probability. So a vote aimed at moderating it is a bit hard to fathom.
I don't think scaring people about unrestrained government will work, though I do think very big majorities breed arrogance and discourage critical self evaluation. A majority of 50 might conceivably lose if they cock up with rebels enough, a 150 majority never will.
But I was thinking more it probably ensures a second term, notwithstanding 2019 being overturned, and some people may regret giving such a cushion.
Personally I hope every election is at least competitive.
Personally I would hope for the same,but I disagree about the inevitabilty of a second term. Our politics our too volatile, and FPTP fuels it. Just think, Starmer is headed for a supermajority on 40% of the vote, yet if it dropped to 30% it would be a wide open contest.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
I’ll scroll back to see what that’s all about ref. @Big_G_NorthWales but if it’s a consolation to him, my Surrey tory friend is going through the same inner turmoil. Having told me she was voting Lib Dem she now seems massively conflicted. She says she doesn’t know who she is going to vote for. She intensely dislikes the nastiness of the current tory party and is in despair about the direction they have gone. But she has voted for them all her life.
I suspect she’s going to vote Conservative.
A story that will be repeated a few million times across the UK. It is what it is. 'DK' but they do, they do
I don't think the Tories must be destroyed to learn a lesson or whatever, and I think might regret doing it. Later.
For now I think enough do want it or are excited to see it they are not thinking of what it could mean for a massive labour majority or what the opposition coukd become.
Kle, any majority over about fifty gives the Government a clear run with its policies. Even the most optimistic Conservative supporters accept Starmer is going to have something much larger, upwards of 150 in all probability. So a vote aimed at moderating it is a bit hard to fathom.
And actually a massive majority on less than 50% of the vote probably lessens (certainly doesn't increase) their moral authority - while it makes little difference to their ability to legislate.legislate.
Also likely to make party discipline looser.
Yes, large majorities certainly mke discipline trickier.
You'd get more rebellions but one large enough to change things would I think still be rarer simply due to scale.
Before I head out a further report from exmouth since it was the subject of a threadheader and we are about halfway through the campaign
Number of leaflets through the door zero Number of canvassers that have visited zero Number of election posters in my neighbourhood zero Signs that there is an election on none whatsoever
I've seen one LD diamond, someone who always puts one up, and fewer than usual.
Very disappointing so far. But I know the MP has been in the town and even his 20k majority is under threat so I'm sure I'll get at least one leaflet.
I thought would do the halfway report because as I said exmouth was tipped as a potential tip in a threadheader for a lib dem gain. Now it might be a lib dem gain who knows but I see no sign of any party putting energy into winning here
That's a great header @jamesdoyle but I don't quite feel the same. Dislike of (and contempt for) the Populist Right is probably my strongest political impulse and therefore I can't be rooting for something (the death of the Cons as a major party) which is actually one of their main goals.
We also keep overlooking the House of Lords. The Tories currently have about a third of the seats there so even if they are smashed in the commons they will have profile and a role to play in the government of the nation that Reform cannot hope to match.
I can’t imagine there are a load of Tory lord’s just itching to merge with Reform and I can see a diminished commons party acting more in concert with higher profile lords such as Cameron.
Depending on how the chips fall, the rump of the Tories in the commons could be Suellaites or Sunakites and that will be key. It they are Sunakites I can see them and the Tory Lords reassembling the party relatively successfully. There might be a greater chasm between the Lords and Suellaites.
I don't think the Tories must be destroyed to learn a lesson or whatever, and I think might regret doing it. Later.
For now I think enough do want it or are excited to see it they are not thinking of what it could mean for a massive labour majority or what the opposition coukd become.
Kle, any majority over about fifty gives the Government a clear run with its policies. Even the most optimistic Conservative supporters accept Starmer is going to have something much larger, upwards of 150 in all probability. So a vote aimed at moderating it is a bit hard to fathom.
And actually a massive majority on less than 50% of the vote probably lessens (certainly doesn't increase) their moral authority - while it makes little difference to their ability to legislate.legislate.
Also likely to make party discipline looser.
Yes, large majorities certainly mke discipline trickier.
You'd get more rebellions but one large enough to change things would I think still be rarer simply due to scale.
Hmmm....Brown v Blair may not have been open civil war but it wasn't far off it, and it was highly destructive.
I don't think the Tories must be destroyed to learn a lesson or whatever, and I think might regret doing it. Later.
For now I think enough do want it or are excited to see it they are not thinking of what it could mean for a massive labour majority or what the opposition coukd become.
Kle, any majority over about fifty gives the Government a clear run with its policies. Even the most optimistic Conservative supporters accept Starmer is going to have something much larger, upwards of 150 in all probability. So a vote aimed at moderating it is a bit hard to fathom.
I don't think scaring people about unrestrained government will work, though I do think very big majorities breed arrogance and discourage critical self evaluation. A majority of 50 might conceivably lose if they cock up with rebels enough, a 150 majority never will.
But I was thinking more it probably ensures a second term, notwithstanding 2019 being overturned, and some people may regret giving such a cushion.
Personally I hope every election is at least competitive.
Personally I would hope for the same,but I disagree about the inevitabilty of a second term. Our politics our too volatile, and FPTP fuels it. Just think, Starmer is headed for a supermajority on 40% of the vote, yet if it dropped to 30% it would be a wide open contest.
There have been big reversals of fortune since 2010, which are massive at constituency level.
The notion that Faragism has a ceiling on its vote of around 20% seems fanciful. Time was when that was true of the far right in France (that time being 2002, when it was tested and a deeply flawed incumbent still gained an enormous landslide on the values of the republic); whereas now the far right is normalised there, as in the US, as in many European countries. We are not that different. It's very easy to see how it happens here too. And the biggest step is Reform actively displacing, out-competing and rendering redundant the Tories.
What should the Tories do about a problem like Nigel Farage? While most of the cabinet — including the prime minister — barely refer to him by name, calling Reform obliquely the “other party”, Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton has a more direct approach.
Should the Tories embrace Farage, as some right-wing Tory MPs believe? “He is currently trying to destroy the Conservative Party by standing for Reform,” Cameron says. “I want to be as sure as we can that we get no Reform members of parliament and the Conservative Party can move forward.”
What Cameron particularly objects to is Farage’s “inflammatory” rhetoric on migration. “I think there’s room [in the Conservative Party] for people who care about immigration,” he says. “I think there’s room for people who want to stand up for strong defence. But the other baggage you get, which can be incredibly divisive, we don’t want that.
“Don’t forget Enoch Powell stopped Britain talking about immigration for 20 to 30 years. As leader of the opposition I was the first person to make a really big speech on immigration in 2006. I know it’s too important an issue to leave on the side.”
Is Cameron comparing Farage to Powell, the former Tory MP whose notorious “rivers of blood” speech divided the nation? “I didn’t say that,” Cameron says. “My point is what I want is robust policy and measured language. I think with these populists what you get is inflammatory language and hopeless policy.”
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
I’ll scroll back to see what that’s all about ref. @Big_G_NorthWales but if it’s a consolation to him, my Surrey tory friend is going through the same inner turmoil. Having told me she was voting Lib Dem she now seems massively conflicted. She says she doesn’t know who she is going to vote for. She intensely dislikes the nastiness of the current tory party and is in despair about the direction they have gone. But she has voted for them all her life.
I suspect she’s going to vote Conservative.
Yet the LDs have been slowly rising in the polls. If people were moving in large numbers from "probably LD" to DK, that would be reflected by a drop.
Whilst it might be a fun night to see the Tories eviscerated it could be a terrible hangover .
Reform are a cancer on UK politics because they want to use the Trump playbook . Make a load of people as angry as possible and feed them simplistic solutions and at the same time othering sections of the community .
I really don’t want to see Reform combining with the Tories post election as that will see a move further to the right .
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
everyone things that the left/right political spectrum is a straight line, in fact it's a doughnut where the very far left and the very far right become indistinguishable authoritarian parties.
Sorry, but that's just wrong, it would mean that I would have more in common with Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch than I would with Tony Blair, Ed Davey or David Cameron, it doesn't pass the smell test for me.
I did use the terms 'very far left' and 'very far right' deliberately. Jeremy Corbyn is as far, if not further, from the 'very far left' as he is from the Liberal Democrats. The same goes for Farage and the 'very far right'.
Fair enough - I thought that when you were talking about very far left you were talking about people like Corbyn, that's what most people do here (I'm more fully automated luxury communism myself)
The problem is that few other than people here would get the subtlety.
Calling Corbyn Far Left as opposed to Very Far Left will be seen as no different to those sympathetic to him and they will think you are smearing them as the sort of person who would support Pol-Pot.
Ditto on the right.
Calling Corbyn Far Left or Farage Far right is a very dangerous thing to do, because the term becomes meaningless, which is of great use to the actual far left and right. Corbyn is Left Farage is Right.
I completely disagree with this header. Would I rather have the centre right represented by the current Conservative party, for all its faults and despite losing its way, or Reform?
You only have to ask the question to see how absurd the proposition is.
It also ignores the fact that the party has mainly lost its way because of the siren call of the fantasies and bigotry of Reform.
The lesson they need to learn from this hammering (and, of course, the failure of Reform to actually win seats) is that this has been a trip into a wilderness devoid of votes. If they want to win they need to get back to the centre, they need to ignore this absurd gender rubbish and all the other Trumpian memes, they need to focus on competence and the proper use of public funds and they need to concentrate on what is good for all of the UK, not just narrow segments that might vote for them.
Those are the lessons to be learnt sure. Hell, I would be voting Conservative and urging others to do so if I thought that was the likely path of the Conservatives. But they will be learning the opposite lessons, to go full Trumpian, and that is why the header is right and you are sadly wrong on this occassion.
Before I head out a further report from exmouth since it was the subject of a threadheader and we are about halfway through the campaign
Number of leaflets through the door zero Number of canvassers that have visited zero Number of election posters in my neighbourhood zero Signs that there is an election on none whatsoever
that's odd, I'm in a very safe labour ward in what should be a safe labour seat and have had 4 leaflets 1 set of canvassers and a leaflet saying that canvassers called a few Labour and Reform posters but not many.
I think that Baggy Shankar is worried about Reform.
More likely, your ward still has Labour activists who want to do something and can't be persuaded to work another patch.
It happens. A lot of the (previously formidable) effort by Andrew Rosindell to work his patch was self-indulgence and would have achieved more in Dagenham or Ilford.
And a lot of my formative activism, trying to hold back the Yellow Peril on the Solent coast was thwarted by the desire of safe wards to become safer.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
I’ll scroll back to see what that’s all about ref. @Big_G_NorthWales but if it’s a consolation to him, my Surrey tory friend is going through the same inner turmoil. Having told me she was voting Lib Dem she now seems massively conflicted. She says she doesn’t know who she is going to vote for. She intensely dislikes the nastiness of the current tory party and is in despair about the direction they have gone. But she has voted for them all her life.
I suspect she’s going to vote Conservative.
A story that will be repeated a few million times across the UK. It is what it is. 'DK' but they do, they do
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
NHS is not a single organization, but four.
Are any doing OK? Would be good to learn from them, since even if the problem were money, an organisation cannot sustain itself expecting more money will always be there.
They do do some things differently. THough the 'learning' (an important potential, as you so rightly comment) is obviated in political discourse, dominated by the London media, by the ritual cry of 'how dare they do things differently from London'. See, for instance, the arguments about drugs policy.
That's a great header @jamesdoyle but I don't quite feel the same. Dislike of (and contempt for) the Populist Right is probably my strongest political impulse and therefore I can't be rooting for something (the death of the Cons as a major party) which is actually one of their main goals.
As much as I want the Tories destroyed for wrecking our country, my betting position of 100-150 seats looks sound. If anything they might surprise on the upside.
Talk of Tories under 50 seats and being supplanted by REFUK are fanciful.
Even though not a fan of SKS, there is a good chance he may perform better as PM than the very low expectations that people have of him. One to watch but cannot see Labour imploding anytime soon.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
A LOT of people, especially Conservative voters, are massively conflicted about how to vote. I have just mentioned my Surrey tory friend who I now suspect will follow Big_G and Mrs Big_G into holding her nose and voting Conservative again.
Why so? Because the sight of the Far Right under Farage (and please don’t pretend he’s anything else) scares her more than anything.
I’m very obviously left-leaning but I would actually vote Conservative if it meant keeping out Farage.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
I’ll scroll back to see what that’s all about ref. @Big_G_NorthWales but if it’s a consolation to him, my Surrey tory friend is going through the same inner turmoil. Having told me she was voting Lib Dem she now seems massively conflicted. She says she doesn’t know who she is going to vote for. She intensely dislikes the nastiness of the current tory party and is in despair about the direction they have gone. But she has voted for them all her life.
I suspect she’s going to vote Conservative.
A story that will be repeated a few million times across the UK. It is what it is. 'DK' but they do, they do
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
As much as I want the Tories destroyed for wrecking our country, my betting position of 100-150 seats looks sound. If anything they might surprise on the upside.
Talk of Tories under 50 seats and being supplanted by REFUK are fanciful.
Even though not a fan of SKS, there is a good chance he may perform better as PM than the very low expectations that people have of him. One to watch but cannot see Labour imploding anytime soon.
Time will tell as ever…
My gut feeling is on the morning there will be a lot more 'hold your nose and vote for my local tory' than polls are picking up at this point.
Thanks though to @jamesdoyle for an interesting read.
A lot of thoughtful and interesting posts on here this morning. Yes my belief has for some time been that the right in the UK are about to coalesce around populism, whether that be a Tory rump or a Reform takeover. I think that outcome is going to happen regardless, but a surviving Tory Party is more likely to tack back to the centre over time, perhaps.
As many have pointed out the next GE after this one will probably see Labour going up against a populist alternative, and if the country is still perceived as having tremendous problems then it will become much more likely that the electorate will look to give “something new” a go. If you think the populists/views considered too “extreme” can’t win in this country, 52% of the country voted for Brexit and Corbyn almost became PM in 2017. The only rule of the last decade or so in Western politics is the old certainties are crumbling before our eyes.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
A LOT of people, especially Conservative voters, are massively conflicted about how to vote. I have just mentioned my Surrey tory friend who I now suspect will follow Big_G and Mrs Big_G into holding her nose and voting Conservative again.
Why so? Because the sight of the Far Right under Farage (and please don’t pretend he’s anything else) scares her more than anything.
I’m very obviously left-leaning but I would actually vote Conservative if it meant keeping out Farage.
The game with first past the post is to keep out the candidate you do not want to win.
As much as I want the Tories destroyed for wrecking our country, my betting position of 100-150 seats looks sound. If anything they might surprise on the upside.
Talk of Tories under 50 seats and being supplanted by REFUK are fanciful.
Even though not a fan of SKS, there is a good chance he may perform better as PM than the very low expectations that people have of him. One to watch but cannot see Labour imploding anytime soon.
As much as I want the Tories destroyed for wrecking our country, my betting position of 100-150 seats looks sound. If anything they might surprise on the upside.
Talk of Tories under 50 seats and being supplanted by REFUK are fanciful.
Even though not a fan of SKS, there is a good chance he may perform better as PM than the very low expectations that people have of him. One to watch but cannot see Labour imploding anytime soon.
Time will tell as ever…
That’s about where I am. I think the Tories will get at least 150 seats. A wipeout seems unlikely to me, but they need to differentiate- quickly with Farage’s turquoise mob. Make the case for traditional Toryism.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
I’ll scroll back to see what that’s all about ref. @Big_G_NorthWales but if it’s a consolation to him, my Surrey tory friend is going through the same inner turmoil. Having told me she was voting Lib Dem she now seems massively conflicted. She says she doesn’t know who she is going to vote for. She intensely dislikes the nastiness of the current tory party and is in despair about the direction they have gone. But she has voted for them all her life.
I suspect she’s going to vote Conservative.
A story that will be repeated a few million times across the UK. It is what it is. 'DK' but they do, they do
Those that don't know, don't vote.
Suspect that betting on a low turnout might be a winner this time around.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
I think your wife is being very unfair on Ed Davey there - when it comes to Ed's testimony I expect he will be throwing very civil servants into the mix for not providing accurate information to him (now on one level that may be unfair but he was a newly elected MP thrust into a ministerial position without training and I expect that lack of familiarity was used against him to hide embarrassing facts).
Alan Bates is local to us and as a customer she knew him and is very much on the side of the SPM 's and Davey has not helped her attitude towards him with his 'clowning' around on water
The fact you know Davey is clowning around tells me he's having a brilliant campaign because he's getting news coverage that would not otherwise be being given.
Whoever designed the Lib Dems campaign knew they had to perform miracles to get coverage and his stunts have ensured he gets the last word most evenings - without those stunts I doubt they would be on the news at all...
Edit and I doubt your wife would have ever voted for the Lib Dems so the loss is a grand total of zero votes lost in a seat they won't win compared to a few (100,10s of thousands across the country)
Actually her friend some decades ago was a Lib Dem and she voted for her on several occasions
...some of her best friends were libdems?...
where have i heard that phrase construction before...
Actually they were and were good local councillors
No idea why they seem to have disappeared here in Wales
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
I think the difference is that the far left know we're a minority which brings good things like a sense of perspective and realism but some not so good things like feeling we're left because we've thought more or care more which isn't really true but they are comfortable tales to tell about ourselves.
The far right seem to think they are the majority, they are fed that comfortable lie by a media eager to push a right-wing agenda (almost like they get more money if the right wing are in control). This makes them think that anyone else being in charge is somehow cheating and they get angry about it.
If you deem enough things "far right" (like return of the death penalty for child murderers within the rule of law and with the usual judicial safeguards), then don't be surprised to wake up one morning and discover that the far right *are* in the majority.
You've put a lot of words into my mouth that I didn't say. I am opposed to the death penalty in all circumstances because as we know people can be wrongly convicted and it's very hard to say "sorry we know you didn't do it" to a corpse. But I haven't said that it's far-right to want such a policy.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
I’ll scroll back to see what that’s all about ref. @Big_G_NorthWales but if it’s a consolation to him, my Surrey tory friend is going through the same inner turmoil. Having told me she was voting Lib Dem she now seems massively conflicted. She says she doesn’t know who she is going to vote for. She intensely dislikes the nastiness of the current tory party and is in despair about the direction they have gone. But she has voted for them all her life.
I suspect she’s going to vote Conservative.
A story that will be repeated a few million times across the UK. It is what it is. 'DK' but they do, they do
Those that don't know, don't vote.
Those that don't know on polling day, don't vote
I tend to need to be inside the polling booth to be 100% sure. Not sure if correlated with often not knowing which menu options to pick at a restaurant until the waiter starts taking the order?
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
I’ll scroll back to see what that’s all about ref. @Big_G_NorthWales but if it’s a consolation to him, my Surrey tory friend is going through the same inner turmoil. Having told me she was voting Lib Dem she now seems massively conflicted. She says she doesn’t know who she is going to vote for. She intensely dislikes the nastiness of the current tory party and is in despair about the direction they have gone. But she has voted for them all her life.
I suspect she’s going to vote Conservative.
Thank you @Heathener and my wife has been a big influence in our decision but then we have been married a longtime and it will not prevent Starmer being PM in 3 weeks
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
I’d tell a pollster I’m a don’t know, but probably vote Conservative through gritted teeth on the day. But, if the game really is up, and the party’s down in the low teens, I’ll vote Reform.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I don’t think he was being abusive. Big_G has himself been making a big thing about not voting Tory. Now he tells us he is voting Tory. That’s worthy of remark.
Whilst it might be a fun night to see the Tories eviscerated it could be a terrible hangover .
Reform are a cancer on UK politics because they want to use the Trump playbook . Make a load of people as angry as possible and feed them simplistic solutions and at the same time othering sections of the community .
I really don’t want to see Reform combining with the Tories post election as that will see a move further to the right .
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
everyone things that the left/right political spectrum is a straight line, in fact it's a doughnut where the very far left and the very far right become indistinguishable authoritarian parties.
Sorry, but that's just wrong, it would mean that I would have more in common with Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch than I would with Tony Blair, Ed Davey or David Cameron, it doesn't pass the smell test for me.
I did use the terms 'very far left' and 'very far right' deliberately. Jeremy Corbyn is as far, if not further, from the 'very far left' as he is from the Liberal Democrats. The same goes for Farage and the 'very far right'.
Fair enough - I thought that when you were talking about very far left you were talking about people like Corbyn, that's what most people do here (I'm more fully automated luxury communism myself)
The problem is that few other than people here would get the subtlety.
Calling Corbyn Far Left as opposed to Very Far Left will be seen as no different to those sympathetic to him and they will think you are smearing them as the sort of person who would support Pol-Pot.
Ditto on the right.
Calling Corbyn Far Left or Farage Far right is a very dangerous thing to do, because the term becomes meaningless, which is of great use to the actual far left and right. Corbyn is Left Farage is Right.
Sunak is Centre Right, Starmer is Centre Left.
For me, the distinction between "far X" and "hard X" is whether they respect the democratic and legal norms or not. Farage respects the democratic and legal framework, so is not "far Right", but "hard Right". Tommy Robinson is "far Right". Trump is "far Right". Just Stop Oil are "far Green".
An honest politician up against a fluent shyster will always struggle there, because it takes five minutes to demolish a five second slogan. And whilst the shysters tend to be thrown out next time (as we're seeing), that takes five years and their poison remains.
Hence BoZo
Anyone not voting for Davey because of him being a clown but didn't have a problem voting for Johnson is not being honest.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I don’t think he was being abusive. Big_G has himself been making a big thing about not voting Tory. Now he tells us he is voting Tory. That’s worthy of remark.
A remark perhaps, but not calling someone a joke and a fool because of it, especially since they given a good reason for doing so.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
It's not the disgreement, Heathener, so much as the idea of telling someone else how to vote.
The Site is at its best when it's an exchange of views, preferably on politics or betting, but pizza and Radiohead is also acceptable. That's different from telling someone what to do when they get in the booth.
Anyone tries that with me, they'll get a piece off pizza up the arse, with topping.
Comments
@Steven_Swinford
Exclusive:
Rishi Sunak is put forward a close friend and former chairman of the BBC for a significant honour
Richard Sharp was Sunak’s boss at the investment bank Goldman Sachs
He was forced to quit as chairman of the BBC in June last year after The Sunday Times disclosed his involvement in helping secure a loan for Boris Johnson
Whitehall sources said that Sharp was initially nominated for a peerage. However, he is now expected to get another honour with suggestions it could be a knighthood
Peerages are vetted by the House of Lords Appointments Committee. Other honours are in PM's gift although they are submitted to Cabinet Office for 'probity and propriety' checks
Theresa May is also being put forward for a Companion of Honour
Now a lot of time that does make sense, I would far rather control my own travel than someone else booking it (incorrectly) for me but in the NHS I suspect employing more admin staff would result in a fair number of productivity improvements simply because competent people would be doing admin work quickly, efficiently and competently .
I post as honestly as I can and whether you or anyone else takes it seriously is not something I even think about
If not, be careful what you wish for.
1) Personal conduct matters. In particular if you bring in new laws and regulations you have to obey them yourselves.
2) Competence matters. Proper preparation and attention to detail is vital.
3) Crony capitalism and rentierism are not the same as wealth creation and a yearning for unearned money is not the same as proper work.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
But I was thinking more it probably ensures a second term, notwithstanding 2019 being overturned, and some people may regret giving such a cushion.
Personally I hope every election is at least competitive.
If we have less kit, fewer beds, fewer medics, and less admin you'd imagine we were running a cheap operation. We're not though.
The best reason to vote Conservative is to hurt Farage.
But there are reverse cases, and in fairness my anecdotal experience of NHS governance is not complimentary.
Also likely to make party discipline looser.
That being said, I think the unthinking right wing populism and blind tory loyalty is going to wither away with the boomers. The real question is: what will the millenials do with their new found electoral power?
where have i heard that phrase construction before...
There are multiple confidential reporting systems in the NHS. For example, https://www.england.nhs.uk/patient-safety/patient-safety-insight/learning-from-patient-safety-events/report-patient-safety-incident/
She'll replace the recently deceased - and considerably more deserving - Peter Higgs.
Reform are a cancer on UK politics because they want to use the Trump playbook . Make a load of people as angry as possible and feed them simplistic solutions and at the same time othering sections of the community .
I really don’t want to see Reform combining with the Tories post election as that will see a move further to the right .
Both the centre left and centre right have bought into this. It is the main mast of both the EU and all the other free trade agreements around the world. Those 'honest politicians you talk about are just as much shysters as the Farages and Le Pens. They are just shilling for a different master and are better at hiding it.
I will believe a politician is really taking things seriously and looking after the best interests of the people when they start treating the multinationals as threats to democracy rather than friends, when they start putting their own people ahead of their friend's company's profits.
They are more extreme than the centre in the UK, but that is not the same thing at all. It's at the truly extreme ends that the actual actions become blurred together.
I'm talking literal Communists and Fascists, or their near cousins, and what they do not the twisted ideologies they cover themselves in to give thuggery some grandiloquent gloss.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
Number of leaflets through the door zero
Number of canvassers that have visited zero
Number of election posters in my neighbourhood zero
Signs that there is an election on none whatsoever
The public majority should get what the public want, no matter how much it upsets the losing side. Sometimes it doesn't work out (Brexit, but not because the people voted for it, but because there was no plan, and the actors involved were all sub optimal).
I don't agree that if the Tories go under that the Far Right will take over. I just don't believe that Britain is an extreme (left or right) country. I might be wrong, but if I am, then that's what the people want.
I'll be paddling an inner tube over to Calais.
Very disappointing so far. But I know the MP has been in the town and even his 20k majority is under threat so I'm sure I'll get at least one leaflet.
I’m still proposing a c. 160 seat Labour majority with figures something like:
Labour 39%
Cons 25%
LibDem 14%
Reform 13%
Green 4%
SNP 2%
With seats looking something like:
Labour 405
Cons 140
LibDems 55
Reform 3
Greens 2
SNP 15
Labour majority c. 160
That will be a huge result for Labour but would leave the Conservatives with a sufficient number to fight out their future. They may lurch to the right but eventually they will come back.
There is ALWAYS a place for a fiscally responsible, economically competent, party of the centre-right in Britain. If the Conservatives are going to lose this election it’s primarily because they lost that mantle. They will regain it but not for some time.
4 leaflets
1 set of canvassers and a leaflet saying that canvassers called
a few Labour and Reform posters but not many.
I think that Baggy Shankar is worried about Reform.
That’s bold!!!!!
I mean, the opinion polls are nothing like1992 but hey!
If it's close I expect some major Tory defections and a civil war.
If it's just that the Tories are hammered and Reform we're a big part of that I not expect a merger, just a huge swing to the right.
Like it or not, the wests lifestyle is propped up by the treasures of empire, which didn't end with the empires but lingered on, albeit decaying. The decay is now I believe at the root of the culture war as our current lifestyles are no longer sustainable and the reforms needed are incompatible with remaining in power in a democracy.
Or is it. It needs leaders who are decent people but prepared to do very undecent things for the greater good. Churchill was prepared to sink the French Fleet at Mers El Kebir and Thatcher the Belgrano. Both horrible things to do.
That is the conundrum of leadership. You need decent people whos life experience gives them the backbone to do very undecent things for the greater good. In the west, it is now so long sunce people experienced real, grinding, hardship that this quality among the decent is in very short supply.
At the moment it manifests most in allowing five million working age people to sit at home on benefits, because stopping that involves a combination of being harsh to the point of nastiness as well as expensive long training/support to get those people working.
So the easy option is taken of importing the thick end of 700,000 peoole a year to fill the vacancies, the result of which is a housing crisis that benefits their landlord mates but will spawn genuiniely nasty results if reform is not rapid.
If the Conservative Party is destroyed - as it very well might be - what takes its place?
If the Conservative Party is destroyed - which we can think of as fewer than 30 MPs and finishing clearly behind Reform in the popular vote - who is left standing on that part of the political spectrum when the dust clears?
Put another way: how far do the Tories have to fall before their position becomes irrecoverable?
The simple answer is that if the Tories do suffer a defeat more catastrophic than Labour in 1931 or the Liberals in 1918, then it is Reform that stands triumphant, ready to inherit the right-of-centre. Not merely on momentum and dynamics (though very much that) but out of pure dominance. And that would be even worse than a reverse takeover.
Yes, a reverse takeover brings a long-established brand to Farage, as well as data and cultural memory (for what those are worth: this election suggests not all that much), but it also brings a degree of mitigation and a large body of members and activists who are still pragmatic at core. That's the same sort of mitigation that the PLP, local councillors and experienced activists brought to Labour during the Corbyn years.
By contrast, an outright replacement means pure Faragism wins. Pure grievance. Pure Trumpism. Simple, loud solutions to complex problems.
And against a Starmer-led Labour, which despite an impending historic victory is neither all that skilled (never mind experienced) at the politics of governing, nor ambitious in its scope - and which faces a still-underacknowledged scale of challenge - I'd expect the opposition to be leading the polls by 2025. This is not 1997 again. There is no new centre-left hegemony.
The notion that Faragism has a ceiling on its vote of around 20% seems fanciful. Time was when that was true of the far right in France (that time being 2002, when it was tested and a deeply flawed incumbent still gained an enormous landslide on the values of the republic); whereas now the far right is normalised there, as in the US, as in many European countries. We are not that different. It's very easy to see how it happens here too. And the biggest step is Reform actively displacing, out-competing and rendering redundant the Tories.
I suspect she’s going to vote Conservative.
I can’t imagine there are a load of Tory lord’s just itching to merge with Reform and I can see a diminished commons party acting more in concert with higher profile lords such as Cameron.
Depending on how the chips fall, the rump of the Tories in the commons could be Suellaites or Sunakites and that will be key. It they are Sunakites I can see them and the Tory Lords reassembling the party relatively successfully. There might be a greater chasm between the Lords and Suellaites.
Should the Tories embrace Farage, as some right-wing Tory MPs believe? “He is currently trying to destroy the Conservative Party by standing for Reform,” Cameron says. “I want to be as sure as we can that we get no Reform members of parliament and the Conservative Party can move forward.”
What Cameron particularly objects to is Farage’s “inflammatory” rhetoric on migration. “I think there’s room [in the Conservative Party] for people who care about immigration,” he says. “I think there’s room for people who want to stand up for strong defence. But the other baggage you get, which can be incredibly divisive, we don’t want that.
“Don’t forget Enoch Powell stopped Britain talking about immigration for 20 to 30 years. As leader of the opposition I was the first person to make a really big speech on immigration in 2006. I know it’s too important an issue to leave on the side.”
Is Cameron comparing Farage to Powell, the former Tory MP whose notorious “rivers of blood” speech divided the nation? “I didn’t say that,” Cameron says. “My point is what I want is robust policy and measured language. I think with these populists what you get is inflammatory language and hopeless policy.”
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/david-cameron-conservatives-tories-general-election-interview-whswsm5kw
Calling Corbyn Far Left as opposed to Very Far Left will be seen as no different to those sympathetic to him and they will think you are smearing them as the sort of person who would support Pol-Pot.
Ditto on the right.
Calling Corbyn Far Left or Farage Far right is a very dangerous thing to do, because the term becomes meaningless, which is of great use to the actual far left and right. Corbyn is Left Farage is Right.
Sunak is Centre Right, Starmer is Centre Left.
It happens. A lot of the (previously formidable) effort by Andrew Rosindell to work his patch was self-indulgence and would have achieved more in Dagenham or Ilford.
And a lot of my formative activism, trying to hold back the Yellow Peril on the Solent coast was thwarted by the desire of safe wards to become safer.
Talk of Tories under 50 seats and being supplanted by REFUK are fanciful.
Even though not a fan of SKS, there is a good chance he may perform better as PM than the very low expectations that people have of him. One to watch but cannot see Labour imploding anytime soon.
Time will tell as ever…
A LOT of people, especially Conservative voters, are massively conflicted about how to vote. I have just mentioned my Surrey tory friend who I now suspect will follow Big_G and Mrs Big_G into holding her nose and voting Conservative again.
Why so? Because the sight of the Far Right under Farage (and please don’t pretend he’s anything else) scares her more than anything.
I’m very obviously left-leaning but I would actually vote Conservative if it meant keeping out Farage.
Thanks though to @jamesdoyle for an interesting read.
As many have pointed out the next GE after this one will probably see Labour going up against a populist alternative, and if the country is still perceived as having tremendous problems then it will become much more likely that the electorate will look to give “something new” a go. If you think the populists/views considered too “extreme” can’t win in this country, 52% of the country voted for Brexit and Corbyn almost became PM in 2017. The only rule of the last decade or so in Western politics is the old certainties are crumbling before our eyes.
No idea why they seem to have disappeared here in Wales
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
As my late father kept telling me when I was a young boubou , “there’s no fool like an old fool”
There are Conservatives on this site and, indeed, it’s now run by one (two) of them.
What has changed over the past fortnight is the rise of Farage’s populist far right party, which ought to concern all decent people of left or right.
Whereas before I could not fathom how anyone could vote Conservative, now I can.
Please leave him alone.
Farage respects the democratic and legal framework, so is not "far Right", but "hard Right".
Tommy Robinson is "far Right".
Trump is "far Right".
Just Stop Oil are "far Green".
The Site is at its best when it's an exchange of views, preferably on politics or betting, but pizza and Radiohead is also acceptable. That's different from telling someone what to do when they get in the booth.
Anyone tries that with me, they'll get a piece off pizza up the arse, with topping.