For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I don’t think he was being abusive. Big_G has himself been making a big thing about not voting Tory. Now he tells us he is voting Tory. That’s worthy of remark.
Indeed, he opens himself up for ridicule. If we can’t call this out, what is the point of a site like this.
Anyway, there are hordes of folk like Big_G hence why my betting position on the Tories is rather generous.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
A LOT of people, especially Conservative voters, are massively conflicted about how to vote. I have just mentioned my Surrey tory friend who I now suspect will follow Big_G and Mrs Big_G into holding her nose and voting Conservative again.
Why so? Because the sight of the Far Right under Farage (and please don’t pretend he’s anything else) scares her more than anything.
I’m very obviously left-leaning but I would actually vote Conservative if it meant keeping out Farage.
I like @Big_G_NorthWales but I think his reasons are nonsense and he has fallen for the Tory propaganda re Davey. As I have pointed out here several times I am involved in a similar campaign to the Post Office scandal (not as serious as people haven't gone to prison, but many have lost tens of thousands of pounds) and only now are we getting somewhere (12 years on). I have done a FOI on the whole government response and every minister is culpable and the latter ones more so than the earlier ones as at least the scandal has broken by then. In our case both LD and Tory minister are to blame as is the case with the PO scandal. So why does @Big_G_NorthWales blame Davey only? What about all the Tory ministers and in particular the latter ones when the scandal was much clearer. It is irrational.
The problem with the system is a minister responds based upon a draft letter supported by a briefing prepared by his civil servants. The civil servants are not keen on opening a can of worms so go defensive. I have read dozens of these in the FOI. Not once does the letter differ from the civil servants draft and not once does the minister raise questions about the briefing.
Why? Because they are overworked with too much on their plate, have no experience in the portfolio they hold and change ministerial jobs far too frequently. They rely on civil servants who don't want to rock the boat. In our case we have received a decade of crap, before it finally broke and the compensation is still outstanding. Most of those impacted are in their 80s or dead.
So every minister who had this in their portfolio is at fault, but those at most fault are the most recent as at least it was more apparent then and the vast majority were Tories, yet @Big_G_NorthWales lays the blame on Davey and gives the Tories a free ride.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
It's not the disgreement, Heathener, so much as the idea of telling someone else how to vote.
The Site is at its best when it's an exchange of views, preferably on politics or betting, but pizza and Radiohead is also acceptable. That's different from telling someone what to do when they get in the booth.
Anyone tries that with me, they'll get a piece off pizza up the arse, with topping.
Does @Topping know he’s about to be used as a punishment suppository?
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I don’t think he was being abusive. Big_G has himself been making a big thing about not voting Tory. Now he tells us he is voting Tory. That’s worthy of remark.
A remark perhaps, but not calling someone a joke and a fool because of it, especially since they given a good reason for doing so.
He didn’t call him either of those things. I was referring to @OllyT ‘s comment.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
I agree that Farage must be stopped in his tracks, but what happens if the Tories do go down to a big defeat, and then decide, and I think this is likely to happen, that they were not right wing enough, and Farage is welcomed with open arms, you then end up being a Farage enabler. I could not vote labour why Corbyn and his cronies were in charge, Labour under Starmer learnt their lesson, I'm not sure the Torys are ready to tack back to the centre
Before I head out a further report from exmouth since it was the subject of a threadheader and we are about halfway through the campaign
Number of leaflets through the door zero Number of canvassers that have visited zero Number of election posters in my neighbourhood zero Signs that there is an election on none whatsoever
There's a bit up here, seems to be a fight between the Lib Dems and the SNP. I want to vote Labour but, I suspect if I got Keir in a candid moment, he'd rather I voted Lib Dem. I suspect, when push comes to shove in my seat, that's where my cross will go.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
A LOT of people, especially Conservative voters, are massively conflicted about how to vote. I have just mentioned my Surrey tory friend who I now suspect will follow Big_G and Mrs Big_G into holding her nose and voting Conservative again.
Why so? Because the sight of the Far Right under Farage (and please don’t pretend he’s anything else) scares her more than anything.
I’m very obviously left-leaning but I would actually vote Conservative if it meant keeping out Farage.
I like @Big_G_NorthWales but I think his reasons are nonsense and he has fallen for the Tory propaganda re Davey. As I have pointed out here several times I am involved in a similar campaign to the Post Office scandal (not as serious as people haven't gone to prison, but many have lost tens of thousands of pounds) and only now are we getting somewhere (12 years on). I have done a FOI on the whole government response and every minister is culpable and the latter ones more so than the earlier ones as at least the scandal has broken by then. In our case both LD and Tory minister are to blame as is the case with the PO scandal. So why does @Big_G_NorthWales blame Davey only? What about all the Tory ministers and in particular the latter ones when the scandal was much clearer. It is irrational.
The problem with the system is a minister responds based upon a draft letter supported by a briefing prepared by his civil servants. The civil servants are not keen on opening a can of worms so go defensive. I have read dozens of these in the FOI. Not once does the letter differ from the civil servants draft and not once does the minister raise questions about the briefing.
Why? Because they are overworked with too much on their plate, have no experience in the portfolio they hold and change ministerial jobs far too frequently. They rely on civil servants who don't want to rock the boat. In our case we have received a decade of crap, before it finally broke and the compensation is still outstanding. Most of those impacted are in their 80s or dead.
So every minister who had this in their portfolio is at fault, but those at most fault are the most recent as at least it was more apparent then and the vast majority were Tories, yet @Big_G_NorthWales lays the blame on Davey and gives the Tories a free ride.
If you read my post it is my wife who is withering about Davey and his behaviour no doubt influenced also by being a former customer of Alan Bates
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I don’t think he was being abusive. Big_G has himself been making a big thing about not voting Tory. Now he tells us he is voting Tory. That’s worthy of remark.
I think the snide ‘oh there’s a surprise’ stuff is totally unnecessary.
The rise of Farage, and particularly that opinion poll has rightly caused consternation for a lot of people.
I can totally understand why it has caused a shift.
And I don’t think this is an easy voting choice election. I make no secret of the fact that I want the Conservatives removed from office. I think they have lurched in a horrible rightwards direction back to being the Nasty Party. But, by heck, Farage’s Reform are a whole extra level of nastiness. I will vote LibDem tactically.
But, frankly, Starmer’s Labour are very centrist. I suspect that John Major would have sat perfectly happily in his Cabinet.
This is by far and away the most interesting election of my lifetime and it’s complex like none other.
I am now hoping that the Conservatives do okay and form the main Opposition, that they resist the right-ward lurch and return to the centre-right where they belong.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I am often amazed at the level of ad hominem that comes into play on here when people discuss their political/voting preferences.
I enjoy debating on here but that is a side that is a bit unfriendly. I like having diversity of thought on here, it shouldn’t be an echo chamber.
As my late father kept telling me when I was a young boubou , “there’s no fool like an old fool”
First past the post is primarily about keeping the candidate out that you don't want rather than voting for the candidate you do want. By that logic I would have thought you would support his position?
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
It's not the disgreement, Heathener, so much as the idea of telling someone else how to vote.
The Site is at its best when it's an exchange of views, preferably on politics or betting, but pizza and Radiohead is also acceptable. That's different from telling someone what to do when they get in the booth.
Anyone tries that with me, they'll get a piece off pizza up the arse, with topping.
Conservatives will be here today, tomorrow and fore ever. In the very short term ideal would be to come third in terms of seats, let the Lib Dems take the Mail flack and quietly rebuild behind the scenes. By elections will come round and they will make gains, their local election situation can only go up and hey presto after two elections they will probably be back in government.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
Seems reasonable to me, and it's none of my business if it isn't reasonable.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
A LOT of people, especially Conservative voters, are massively conflicted about how to vote. I have just mentioned my Surrey tory friend who I now suspect will follow Big_G and Mrs Big_G into holding her nose and voting Conservative again.
Why so? Because the sight of the Far Right under Farage (and please don’t pretend he’s anything else) scares her more than anything.
I’m very obviously left-leaning but I would actually vote Conservative if it meant keeping out Farage.
I don't know how my parents will vote as since Brexit neither of my brothers nor I talk politics with them, as it just starts arguments and we don't want to fall out with them.
They used to be One Nation Tories, a bit Majorite, but have in recent years gone down the rabbit hole, watching GB News and getting het up about immigrants. This is despite my Dad being a son of immigrants, two of his daughters in law being immigrants, and migrating to work abroad twice in his life. I suspect that my Dad is leaning Reform, and my Mum unenthusiastically Tory.
They live in Romsey, so have a Nokes as their MP, not someone they approve of for a variety of reasons.
I suspect they will reluctantly vote Conservative in the end.
Whilst it might be a fun night to see the Tories eviscerated it could be a terrible hangover .
Reform are a cancer on UK politics because they want to use the Trump playbook . Make a load of people as angry as possible and feed them simplistic solutions and at the same time othering sections of the community .
I really don’t want to see Reform combining with the Tories post election as that will see a move further to the right .
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
everyone things that the left/right political spectrum is a straight line, in fact it's a doughnut where the very far left and the very far right become indistinguishable authoritarian parties.
Sorry, but that's just wrong, it would mean that I would have more in common with Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch than I would with Tony Blair, Ed Davey or David Cameron, it doesn't pass the smell test for me.
I did use the terms 'very far left' and 'very far right' deliberately. Jeremy Corbyn is as far, if not further, from the 'very far left' as he is from the Liberal Democrats. The same goes for Farage and the 'very far right'.
Fair enough - I thought that when you were talking about very far left you were talking about people like Corbyn, that's what most people do here (I'm more fully automated luxury communism myself)
The problem is that few other than people here would get the subtlety.
Calling Corbyn Far Left as opposed to Very Far Left will be seen as no different to those sympathetic to him and they will think you are smearing them as the sort of person who would support Pol-Pot.
Ditto on the right.
Calling Corbyn Far Left or Farage Far right is a very dangerous thing to do, because the term becomes meaningless, which is of great use to the actual far left and right. Corbyn is Left Farage is Right.
Sunak is Centre Right, Starmer is Centre Left.
For me, the distinction between "far X" and "hard X" is whether they respect the democratic and legal norms or not. Farage respects the democratic and legal framework, so is not "far Right", but "hard Right". Tommy Robinson is "far Right". Trump is "far Right". Just Stop Oil are "far Green".
Get your point but I'm not sure the average person on the 60 bus (Clapham Omnibus) will see any difference between far right and hard right. I think just " Right" is better.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
A LOT of people, especially Conservative voters, are massively conflicted about how to vote. I have just mentioned my Surrey tory friend who I now suspect will follow Big_G and Mrs Big_G into holding her nose and voting Conservative again.
Why so? Because the sight of the Far Right under Farage (and please don’t pretend he’s anything else) scares her more than anything.
I’m very obviously left-leaning but I would actually vote Conservative if it meant keeping out Farage.
I like @Big_G_NorthWales but I think his reasons are nonsense and he has fallen for the Tory propaganda re Davey. As I have pointed out here several times I am involved in a similar campaign to the Post Office scandal (not as serious as people haven't gone to prison, but many have lost tens of thousands of pounds) and only now are we getting somewhere (12 years on). I have done a FOI on the whole government response and every minister is culpable and the latter ones more so than the earlier ones as at least the scandal has broken by then. In our case both LD and Tory minister are to blame as is the case with the PO scandal. So why does @Big_G_NorthWales blame Davey only? What about all the Tory ministers and in particular the latter ones when the scandal was much clearer. It is irrational.
The problem with the system is a minister responds based upon a draft letter supported by a briefing prepared by his civil servants. The civil servants are not keen on opening a can of worms so go defensive. I have read dozens of these in the FOI. Not once does the letter differ from the civil servants draft and not once does the minister raise questions about the briefing.
Why? Because they are overworked with too much on their plate, have no experience in the portfolio they hold and change ministerial jobs far too frequently. They rely on civil servants who don't want to rock the boat. In our case we have received a decade of crap, before it finally broke and the compensation is still outstanding. Most of those impacted are in their 80s or dead.
So every minister who had this in their portfolio is at fault, but those at most fault are the most recent as at least it was more apparent then and the vast majority were Tories, yet @Big_G_NorthWales lays the blame on Davey and gives the Tories a free ride.
If you read my post it is my wife who is withering about Davey and his behaviour no doubt influenced also by being a former customer of Alan Bates
But unbothered by all the Tory Post ministers since 2015. Pull the other one, it has bells on.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
It's not the disgreement, Heathener, so much as the idea of telling someone else how to vote.
The Site is at its best when it's an exchange of views, preferably on politics or betting, but pizza and Radiohead is also acceptable. That's different from telling someone what to do when they get in the booth.
Anyone tries that with me, they'll get a piece off pizza up the arse, with topping.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I am often amazed at the level of ad hominem that comes into play on here when people discuss their political/voting preferences.
I enjoy debating on here but that is a side that is a bit unfriendly. I like having diversity of thought on here, it shouldn’t be an echo chamber.
Especially as it is a betting site and his ruminations provide useful investment pointers. The last thing you need on a betting site is people staying quiet for fear of ridicule.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
It's not the disgreement, Heathener, so much as the idea of telling someone else how to vote.
The Site is at its best when it's an exchange of views, preferably on politics or betting, but pizza and Radiohead is also acceptable. That's different from telling someone what to do when they get in the booth.
Anyone tries that with me, they'll get a piece off pizza up the arse, with topping.
So long as the topping isn't pineapple....
I had a pineapple pizza yesterday as it was discounted in Sainsbury's. Bland like most pizzas that don't have anchovies or chilli.
OK, Labour are going to win and probably win big. What I think is now most interesting about the election is how much will Farage splitting the Tory vote
1. Affect the number of Tories returned, maybe putting them third. 2. Affect the number of MPs for other parties, LibDem, Green, Reform etc 3. Affect which Tories are left after the dust settles. This will determine whether we get a Tory party that can recover or one that goes hard right.
The Conservatives have benefitted for decades by the anti-tory vote being split. If Reform are more than a flash in the pan this could be a reaaly big change. I would think that it would be a difficult job to work this out from the polling, but it would be interesting to know.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
I’d tell a pollster I’m a don’t know, but probably vote Conservative through gritted teeth on the day. But, if the game really is up, and the party’s down in the low teens, I’ll vote Reform.
For me, Reform is a clear sell on the markets.
If they ever got close to government they'd make fall apart in months and make the Conservatives look supremely competent.
What I want is the selection of excellent and talented candidates and a future Conservative government that actually delivers on its manifesto.
I’d tell a pollster I’m a don’t know, but probably vote Conservative through gritted teeth on the day. But, if the game really is up, and the party’s down in the low teens, I’ll vote Reform.
For me, Reform is a clear sell on the markets.
If they ever got close to government they'd make fall apart in months and make the Conservatives look supremely competent.
What I want is the selection of excellent and talented candidates and a future Conservative government that actually delivers on its manifesto.
That is what we all wanted in 2019. Which is why Reform are where they are in the polls.
Agree if they actually won it would be a disaster. But unless the Tories junk crony cspitalism, financialisation of anything and everything and taking easy decisions over painful reforms, that is what we will get eventually.
For what it is worth I think Starmer is getting a hospital pass and the 2029 election will see a Tory/Labour coalition that has a tiny majority and relies on Libdem abstaining to get leguslation through, as I don't think Starmer and his team have the backbone or talent to deal with what is coming down the line.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
I’ll scroll back to see what that’s all about ref. @Big_G_NorthWales but if it’s a consolation to him, my Surrey tory friend is going through the same inner turmoil. Having told me she was voting Lib Dem she now seems massively conflicted. She says she doesn’t know who she is going to vote for. She intensely dislikes the nastiness of the current tory party and is in despair about the direction they have gone. But she has voted for them all her life.
I suspect she’s going to vote Conservative.
A story that will be repeated a few million times across the UK. It is what it is. 'DK' but they do, they do
Those that don't know, don't vote.
Those that don't know on polling day, don't vote
Your username suggests an extreme of inflexibility which if everyone shared it would make elections pretty uninteresting. Floating voters do actually float, people do change their mind.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
It's not the disgreement, Heathener, so much as the idea of telling someone else how to vote.
The Site is at its best when it's an exchange of views, preferably on politics or betting, but pizza and Radiohead is also acceptable. That's different from telling someone what to do when they get in the booth.
Anyone tries that with me, they'll get a piece off pizza up the arse, with topping.
So long as the topping isn't pineapple....
I had a pineapple pizza yesterday as it was discounted in Sainsbury's. Bland like most pizzas that don't have anchovies or chilli.
The advantage of supermarket pizzas is that its easy to add your own extra toppings and seasonings.
Whilst it might be a fun night to see the Tories eviscerated it could be a terrible hangover .
Reform are a cancer on UK politics because they want to use the Trump playbook . Make a load of people as angry as possible and feed them simplistic solutions and at the same time othering sections of the community .
I really don’t want to see Reform combining with the Tories post election as that will see a move further to the right .
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
everyone things that the left/right political spectrum is a straight line, in fact it's a doughnut where the very far left and the very far right become indistinguishable authoritarian parties.
Sorry, but that's just wrong, it would mean that I would have more in common with Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch than I would with Tony Blair, Ed Davey or David Cameron, it doesn't pass the smell test for me.
I did use the terms 'very far left' and 'very far right' deliberately. Jeremy Corbyn is as far, if not further, from the 'very far left' as he is from the Liberal Democrats. The same goes for Farage and the 'very far right'.
Fair enough - I thought that when you were talking about very far left you were talking about people like Corbyn, that's what most people do here (I'm more fully automated luxury communism myself)
The problem is that few other than people here would get the subtlety.
Calling Corbyn Far Left as opposed to Very Far Left will be seen as no different to those sympathetic to him and they will think you are smearing them as the sort of person who would support Pol-Pot.
Ditto on the right.
Calling Corbyn Far Left or Farage Far right is a very dangerous thing to do, because the term becomes meaningless, which is of great use to the actual far left and right. Corbyn is Left Farage is Right.
Sunak is Centre Right, Starmer is Centre Left.
For me, the distinction between "far X" and "hard X" is whether they respect the democratic and legal norms or not. Farage respects the democratic and legal framework, so is not "far Right", but "hard Right". Tommy Robinson is "far Right". Trump is "far Right". Just Stop Oil are "far Green".
Get your point but I'm not sure the average person on the 60 bus (Clapham Omnibus) will see any difference between far right and hard right. I think just " Right" is better.
For me the right becomes 'far' or 'hard' when it starts blaming all or most of our problems on immigration.
I am probably not voting for Reform, and will probably vote for labour. But it would be quite good to get some more balanced commentary on 'reform'. One thing I would observe is that casually slandering them as if they were UKIP circa 2012 is not going to work and just creates free publicity for them. Because this sets off the following 'circuit/chain of events' amongst the intended audience - people reading the reform policies and think... "hmm actually they are not racist and they may actually be right about some things - and there is a massive establishment/mainstream media conspiracy against them - so lets drain the swamp!" This made me smile - the BBC 'fact checking' supposedly controversial statements by Nigel Farage and not really being able to fault what he said. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2998klx2y0o
Recommendation: If you want to beat the 'far right threat' you have to address their policies not just appealing to an assumption that they are fascist scum. IE how many prison places do they need to build for their tougher sentencing. Where are these military bases they are converting to prisons, etc. How are they going to do recruitment for health care, public services etc with net zero immigration.
I would also say that there isn't much between Reform and the Tories in terms of being 'far right'. I am remembering the 'windrush' deportations and the 'go home or be arrested' vans. Also the Rwanda policy. Surely this is all the same thing?
Last night I returned from my cycling trip and tomorrow I am back on the campaign trail again.
480 km cycled, fell off once (when your companion points and says 'look at that house', don't, it is not a good idea, particularly if he is likely to stop), ate and drank too much and have sore legs and a sore face due to the sun and the wind. Longest day was 70 km. Visited just too many nice places and met so many other nice cyclists most of which were cycling much further than us and often quite a bit older than us. You are definitely not too old at 69, but at the moment it feels like it.
I’d tell a pollster I’m a don’t know, but probably vote Conservative through gritted teeth on the day. But, if the game really is up, and the party’s down in the low teens, I’ll vote Reform.
For me, Reform is a clear sell on the markets.
If they ever got close to government they'd make fall apart in months and make the Conservatives look supremely competent.
What I want is the selection of excellent and talented candidates and a future Conservative government that actually delivers on its manifesto.
If any of the manifestos could be delivered I would be quite happy. They are all fantasy land and should be seen as useful indicators of priorities and approaches rather than something we expect to happen.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
You’re now just a PB joke.
That’s the second election where you have spent weeks and weeks expressing your discontent with the Tories, claiming you won’t be voting for them, only when it comes to it, you vote for them anyway. Why do you insult us all with your nonsense?
You seem to be attacking my wife's view on this and upset at her view of Ed Davey being a clown
I expected this response but when you have just celebrated 60 years marriage we discuss and come to agreement on lots of things and this is just a minor one
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
I have to ask !
By UK Vets do you mean the UK Veteran setup, or NHS as James Herriot + the PDSA?
I would also say that there isn't much between Reform and the Tories in terms of being 'far right'. I am remembering the 'windrush' deportations and the 'go home or be arrested' vans. Also the Rwanda policy. Surely this is all the same thing?
There's not much between them and New Labour for that matter.
I’d tell a pollster I’m a don’t know, but probably vote Conservative through gritted teeth on the day. But, if the game really is up, and the party’s down in the low teens, I’ll vote Reform.
For me, Reform is a clear sell on the markets.
If they ever got close to government they'd make fall apart in months and make the Conservatives look supremely competent.
What I want is the selection of excellent and talented candidates and a future Conservative government that actually delivers on its manifesto.
That is what we all wanted in 2019. Which is why Reform are where they are in the polls.
You got what you asked for in 2019.
Not the fault of the rest of us it's a pile of shit. I hope you don't mind me being blunt.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
I have to ask !
By UK Vets do you mean the UK Veteran setup, or NHS as James Herriot + the PDSA?
UK vets post the Blair reforms that allowed non vets to own practices resulting in private equity sharks moving in wholesale.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
I agree that Farage must be stopped in his tracks, but what happens if the Tories do go down to a big defeat, and then decide, and I think this is likely to happen, that they were not right wing enough, and Farage is welcomed with open arms, you then end up being a Farage enabler. I could not vote labour why Corbyn and his cronies were in charge, Labour under Starmer learnt their lesson, I'm not sure the Torys are ready to tack back to the centre
When Corbyn led Labour I did not vote for them at either election, it was a matter of principle.
I was tempted in 2017 but knew that if I did the Corbynites would claim it as a vote for them. That is exactly what happened as BigJohnOwls constantly crows about how many votes Corbyn got in 2017 despite the fact that millions of those voters despised Corbyn's brand of politics and he still lost. 2019 gave a far better indication of what people really thought of Corbyn.
I can understand why BigG has voted Tory but I believe he would always have found one fig leaf or another to hide behind as he did when he voted for Johnson in 2019. People are different but I could not bring myself to vote for an MP and government that I knew were useless. Whether he likes it or not his vote will be seen as endorsing Miller/Johnson/Truss/Sunak and their politics.
I am probably not voting for Reform, and will probably vote for labour. But it would be quite good to get some more balanced commentary on 'reform'. One thing I would observe is that casually slandering them as if they were UKIP circa 2012 is not going to work and just creates free publicity for them. Because this sets off the following 'circuit/chain of events' amongst the intended audience - people reading the reform policies and think... "hmm actually they are not racist and they may actually be right about some things - and there is a massive establishment/mainstream media conspiracy against them - so lets drain the swamp!" This made me smile - the BBC 'fact checking' supposedly controversial statements by Nigel Farage and not really being able to fault what he said. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2998klx2y0o
Recommendation: If you want to beat the 'far right threat' you have to address their policies not just appealing to an assumption that they are fascist scum. IE how many prison places do they need to build for their tougher sentencing. Where are these military bases they are converting to prisons, etc. How are they going to do recruitment for health care, public services etc with net zero immigration.
I would also say that there isn't much between Reform and the Tories in terms of being 'far right'. I am remembering the 'windrush' deportations and the 'go home or be arrested' vans. Also the Rwanda policy. Surely this is all the same thing?
Yes. Patel, Braverman, JRM and Farage all repeatedly make the point that there is very little between them. They say the same things. Yet most Conservatives on here seem to be voting for a party that will be dominated by Patel, Braverman and JRM in order to stop Farage. It just makes no sense.
I’d tell a pollster I’m a don’t know, but probably vote Conservative through gritted teeth on the day. But, if the game really is up, and the party’s down in the low teens, I’ll vote Reform.
For me, Reform is a clear sell on the markets.
If they ever got close to government they'd make fall apart in months and make the Conservatives look supremely competent.
What I want is the selection of excellent and talented candidates and a future Conservative government that actually delivers on its manifesto.
I am in rare agreement with you, but delivering on manifesto promises requires those promises to be deliverable. The current Tory manifesto is not, and the sums generated by imaginary efficiency savings and tax avoidance particularly ludicrous.
OK, Labour are going to win and probably win big. What I think is now most interesting about the election is how much will Farage splitting the Tory vote
1. Affect the number of Tories returned, maybe putting them third. 2. Affect the number of MPs for other parties, LibDem, Green, Reform etc 3. Affect which Tories are left after the dust settles. This will determine whether we get a Tory party that can recover or one that goes hard right.
The Conservatives have benefitted for decades by the anti-tory vote being split. If Reform are more than a flash in the pan this could be a reaaly big change. I would think that it would be a difficult job to work this out from the polling, but it would be interesting to know.
Unless the survivors are very skewed, the remnant in Parliament is less important than the remnant in the country.
If the Reform-curious right have more than a third of the MPs, they can get one of their own through to the membership vote. Indeed, a bit less than a third will do the job. That's not certain, but it seems plausible.
And whilst the membership don't have to vote for the loopiest right winger they are offered, it will require remarkable self-restraint.
If the final round ends up as (say) Cleverly-Badenoch, that's bad but not too bad. But Braverman-someone else, that only ends in one, disastrous way.
And yet, history, memory and identity are powerful things for people. Ultimately, I'm a dripping wet one nation conservative. I've not voted for them for a while, I think this government is a disaster, everything they say and do screams "why don't you (go away) and join the Liberals?"
I agree with the header. As an ex-Conservative voter I was both frustrated and saddened by the continual right-ward lurches of the party, leaving me behind in an electoral wilderness with no viable LibDem presence and (at the time) Corbyn...
I disagree that the Conservative brand has value. They have destroyed whatever value they had and the only value they have left is the deluded belief by habitual Cons. voters that it can all come good again if they can just get the right leader. The Party is choc-full of nutters and swivel-eyed loons and it needs a d*mn good cleaning out.
A wipeout and some years in the wilderness should eject quite a few idiots and chinless wonders. What a pity that we have to endure the rather grey non-person that is Starmer. I only hope that he has his crazies under control.
And the invisible man (Ed Davey)? We will have to see what is in there when the bandages are unwound.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
I’ll scroll back to see what that’s all about ref. @Big_G_NorthWales but if it’s a consolation to him, my Surrey tory friend is going through the same inner turmoil. Having told me she was voting Lib Dem she now seems massively conflicted. She says she doesn’t know who she is going to vote for. She intensely dislikes the nastiness of the current tory party and is in despair about the direction they have gone. But she has voted for them all her life.
I suspect she’s going to vote Conservative.
A story that will be repeated a few million times across the UK. It is what it is. 'DK' but they do, they do
Those that don't know, don't vote.
Those that don't know on polling day, don't vote
Your username suggests an extreme of inflexibility which if everyone shared it would make elections pretty uninteresting. Floating voters do actually float, people do change their mind.
My username has been a variation on the theme of dyed in the wool (undergoing several forgotten password changes) since I first joined the site in 2007 or so and is a joke based on a comment made to me.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
But if enough voters take your attitude, Robin Miller and three hundred and fifty or so more Robin Millers are returned. You are simply voting for a brand. It's like shopping in Marks and Spencer, simply because it is familiar, and you are comfortable. You feel you know what you are getting, despite all the evidence pointing out that quality and pricing are far more competitive elsewhere.
But actually Robin Miller was absolutely right over Johnson, and BG was totally wrong. This has been shown in the event. So perhaps BG should vote for him by way of an apology.
Button, Alonso, Schumacher jr competing at the 24 hours of the Mans
My best sports spectating memory by a country mile is driving rather fast in a Jensen GT back from the Mans to catch the Calais ferry after jaguars 1 2 3 victory over the sales boches in 1988. Cheers and union jacks from every single house on the entire route. Felt like d Day.
...To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat...
I forget how long you have been here but I'd be surprised if it wasn't for at least three elections including this one. Each time you ponder deeply about the general trends of the world, lament upon the government and its actions, and then vote for it. The Conservative Party is your home in a way it is for few others on this site I think, and I will be surprised if you vote for anybody else again, in the hopefully lengthy years to come
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
There are a number of errors within this but not least that the NHS is not a single monolith. The 4 nations run their own NHS and in England we have 250 or so Trusts, each making autonomous decisions, as well as a plethora of commissioning groups, independent sector NHS providers etc.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I don’t think he was being abusive. Big_G has himself been making a big thing about not voting Tory. Now he tells us he is voting Tory. That’s worthy of remark.
I think the snide ‘oh there’s a surprise’ stuff is totally unnecessary.
The rise of Farage, and particularly that opinion poll has rightly caused consternation for a lot of people.
I can totally understand why it has caused a shift.
And I don’t think this is an easy voting choice election. I make no secret of the fact that I want the Conservatives removed from office. I think they have lurched in a horrible rightwards direction back to being the Nasty Party. But, by heck, Farage’s Reform are a whole extra level of nastiness. I will vote LibDem tactically.
But, frankly, Starmer’s Labour are very centrist. I suspect that John Major would have sat perfectly happily in his Cabinet.
This is by far and away the most interesting election of my lifetime and it’s complex like none other.
I am now hoping that the Conservatives do okay and form the main Opposition, that they resist the right-ward lurch and return to the centre-right where they belong.
You think Sir John Major could have sat in a Cabinet committed to votes at 16, nationalisation of rail, taxes on public schools, diluting the green belt, banning more hunting, ending north sea oil, unspecified tax rises, and social controls like banning energy drinks under 16?
No, he wouldn’t, he’s a conservative. Absent his history he might not vote for this Tory platform (of course he will in reality), as a voter he might even compromise and vote for that lot like I expect to. But he wouldn’t be part of that Cabinet.
Dramatic developments on PB this morning. Swingback has, at last. started. It began with a murmur in North Wales, and is already rippling across the nation(s) as doubters return to the Tory fold. The Tories' new campaign, with the slogan "Better the Devil you know", will increase the ripple to a tsunami. Tory majority, or at worse a hung parliament, nailed on.
Did anyone really doubt BigG would end up voting Conservative? 😏 As for "Sir Alan Bates" accepting his honour..I'm sure lessons really will be learnt by the establishment now..🥴
Whilst it might be a fun night to see the Tories eviscerated it could be a terrible hangover .
Reform are a cancer on UK politics because they want to use the Trump playbook . Make a load of people as angry as possible and feed them simplistic solutions and at the same time othering sections of the community .
I really don’t want to see Reform combining with the Tories post election as that will see a move further to the right .
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
everyone things that the left/right political spectrum is a straight line, in fact it's a doughnut where the very far left and the very far right become indistinguishable authoritarian parties.
Sorry, but that's just wrong, it would mean that I would have more in common with Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch than I would with Tony Blair, Ed Davey or David Cameron, it doesn't pass the smell test for me.
I did use the terms 'very far left' and 'very far right' deliberately. Jeremy Corbyn is as far, if not further, from the 'very far left' as he is from the Liberal Democrats. The same goes for Farage and the 'very far right'.
Fair enough - I thought that when you were talking about very far left you were talking about people like Corbyn, that's what most people do here (I'm more fully automated luxury communism myself)
The problem is that few other than people here would get the subtlety.
Calling Corbyn Far Left as opposed to Very Far Left will be seen as no different to those sympathetic to him and they will think you are smearing them as the sort of person who would support Pol-Pot.
Ditto on the right.
Calling Corbyn Far Left or Farage Far right is a very dangerous thing to do, because the term becomes meaningless, which is of great use to the actual far left and right. Corbyn is Left Farage is Right.
Sunak is Centre Right, Starmer is Centre Left.
For me, the distinction between "far X" and "hard X" is whether they respect the democratic and legal norms or not. Farage respects the democratic and legal framework, so is not "far Right", but "hard Right". Tommy Robinson is "far Right". rfectpy Trump is "far Right". Just Stop Oil are "far Green".
Get your point but I'm not sure the average person on the 60 bus (Clapham Omnibus) will see any difference between far right and hard right. I think just " Right" is better.
For me the right becomes 'far' or 'hard' when it starts blaming all or most of our problems on immigration.
The problem at the moment is that immigration is a problem.
You cannot import 700,000 people a year into a country of limited landmass and expect it not to be a problem, as it is causing a monumental housing and infrastructure crisis.
The problem that lies behind this is even more taboo. That we pay five million people a year to sit at home doing nothing, a good slew of whom are perfectly capable of working.
But our politicians are frightened to end the bread and circuses and don't want to pay the short term cost of increasing training places (and allowing wages to rise in proportion to demand) so they take the easy option and import people.
Which also suits their crony capitalism agenda, as the more people chasing every house the more rent for their landlord mates (or themselves as landlords in a good few cases) and the more people chasing every job the lower wages they can get away with.
Meanwhile the immigrants live in appalling accomodation, do the worst jobs on minimum pay and get the hositility of the general population who blame them for the mess.
Dramatic developments on PB this morning. Swingback has, at last. started. It began with a murmur in North Wales, and is already rippling across the nation(s) as doubters return to the Tory fold. The Tories' new campaign, with the slogan "Better the Devil you know", will increase the ripple to a tsunami. Tory majority, or at worse a hung parliament, nailed on.
Dramatic developments on PB this morning. Swingback has, at last. started. It began with a murmur in North Wales, and is already rippling across the nation(s) as doubters return to the Tory fold. The Tories' new campaign, with the slogan "Better the Devil you know", will increase the ripple to a tsunami. Tory majority, or at worse a hung parliament, nailed on.
Dramatic developments on PB this morning. Swingback has, at last. started. It began with a murmur in North Wales, and is already rippling across the nation(s) as doubters return to the Tory fold. The Tories' new campaign, with the slogan "Better the Devil you know", will increase the ripple to a tsunami. Tory majority, or at worse a hung parliament, nailed on.
I am probably not voting for Reform, and will probably vote for labour. But it would be quite good to get some more balanced commentary on 'reform'. One thing I would observe is that casually slandering them as if they were UKIP circa 2012 is not going to work and just creates free publicity for them. Because this sets off the following 'circuit/chain of events' amongst the intended audience - people reading the reform policies and think... "hmm actually they are not racist and they may actually be right about some things - and there is a massive establishment/mainstream media conspiracy against them - so lets drain the swamp!" This made me smile - the BBC 'fact checking' supposedly controversial statements by Nigel Farage and not really being able to fault what he said. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2998klx2y0o
Recommendation: If you want to beat the 'far right threat' you have to address their policies not just appealing to an assumption that they are fascist scum. IE how many prison places do they need to build for their tougher sentencing. Where are these military bases they are converting to prisons, etc. How are they going to do recruitment for health care, public services etc with net zero immigration.
I would also say that there isn't much between Reform and the Tories in terms of being 'far right'. I am remembering the 'windrush' deportations and the 'go home or be arrested' vans. Also the Rwanda policy. Surely this is all the same thing?
Some good points here. The reason populism is thriving is because it preys on a weak and self-preserving political class who are too meek and afraid to really have proper conversations with their electorates about the issues. It creates a vacuum, and into that vacuum step people like Farage promising easy fixes (which we all know are far from easy).
In this country, we desperately need the political class to start thinking about talking about areas that are outside their comfort zone. Things like immigration and asylum, but also how sustainable the current NHS model is (and what could replace it), how to revolutionise the education system to provide the skilled workforce of the future, etc. We need our politicians to be bolder, before snake oil salesmen move in and take over the pitch entirely.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
There are a number of errors within this but not least that the NHS is not a single monolith. The 4 nations run their own NHS and in England we have 250 or so Trusts, each making autonomous decisions, as well as a plethora of commissioning groups, independent sector NHS providers etc.
The fax machines business is interesting - it argues *against* a monolithic NHS, as it implies compatibility issues. Or simply practicality given a shortage of administrators knowing how to do the technicalities otherwise.
Dramatic developments on PB this morning. Swingback has, at last. started. It began with a murmur in North Wales, and is already rippling across the nation(s) as doubters return to the Tory fold. The Tories' new campaign, with the slogan "Better the Devil you know", will increase the ripple to a tsunami. Tory majority, or at worse a hung parliament, nailed on.
Nah but were you up for Wes, Jess and Shabhana?
Yes. All three won, comfortably.
I shall peer into my chronovisor and check this information.......
Did anyone really doubt BigG would end up voting Conservative? 😏 As for "Sir Alan Bates" accepting his honour..I'm sure lessons really will be learnt by the establishment now..🥴
A net transfer of honour from Vennell to Bates is excellent news
I am probably not voting for Reform, and will probably vote for labour. But it would be quite good to get some more balanced commentary on 'reform'. One thing I would observe is that casually slandering them as if they were UKIP circa 2012 is not going to work and just creates free publicity for them. Because this sets off the following 'circuit/chain of events' amongst the intended audience - people reading the reform policies and think... "hmm actually they are not racist and they may actually be right about some things - and there is a massive establishment/mainstream media conspiracy against them - so lets drain the swamp!" This made me smile - the BBC 'fact checking' supposedly controversial statements by Nigel Farage and not really being able to fault what he said. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2998klx2y0o
Recommendation: If you want to beat the 'far right threat' you have to address their policies not just appealing to an assumption that they are fascist scum. IE how many prison places do they need to build for their tougher sentencing. Where are these military bases they are converting to prisons, etc. How are they going to do recruitment for health care, public services etc with net zero immigration.
I would also say that there isn't much between Reform and the Tories in terms of being 'far right'. I am remembering the 'windrush' deportations and the 'go home or be arrested' vans. Also the Rwanda policy. Surely this is all the same thing?
Although I'm not sure we end up with the same conclusions on stuff i always enjoy reading your posts because I think you have a very clear eyed take on things. Good post.
Dismissing Reform out of hand isn't just antidemocratic, it's also shit politics.
I'd summarise the situation by saying Reform ask a lot of the right questions but come up with the wrong answers, mostly because they're not seriously looking for answers. I'd make the same criticism of the Greens.
Which leads me to a real sympathy for those voting Reform. Because I may well vote Green for the same reason. I don't actually want them to win because they're economically illiterate. But I'd like someone economically literate to sit up and take notice of the questions they're raising.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
I agree that Farage must be stopped in his tracks, but what happens if the Tories do go down to a big defeat, and then decide, and I think this is likely to happen, that they were not right wing enough, and Farage is welcomed with open arms, you then end up being a Farage enabler. I could not vote labour why Corbyn and his cronies were in charge, Labour under Starmer learnt their lesson, I'm not sure the Torys are ready to tack back to the centre
When Corbyn led Labour I did not vote for them at either election, it was a matter of principle.
I was tempted in 2017 but knew that if I did the Corbynites would claim it as a vote for them. That is exactly what happened as BigJohnOwls constantly crows about how many votes Corbyn got in 2017 despite the fact that millions of those voters despised Corbyn's brand of politics and he still lost. 2019 gave a far better indication of what people really thought of Corbyn.
I can understand why BigG has voted Tory but I believe he would always have found one fig leaf or another to hide behind as he did when he voted for Johnson in 2019. People are different but I could not bring myself to vote for an MP and government that I knew were useless. Whether he likes it or not his vote will be seen as endorsing Miller/Johnson/Truss/Sunak and their politics.
Re your last paragraph, even if that’s true about finding one fig leaf or another, shouldn’t we be paying attention to that? As a betting site, first and foremost I mean?
Doesn’t it suggest that possibly the current opinion polls are over-egging the demise of the Conservatives?
I’m not saying that this is definitely happening but that’s three people I now know who told me they weren’t going to vote Conservative who now are.
Quite apart from the unsavoury nature of personal abuse, we should be aware as punters .
Whilst it might be a fun night to see the Tories eviscerated it could be a terrible hangover .
Reform are a cancer on UK politics because they want to use the Trump playbook . Make a load of people as angry as possible and feed them simplistic solutions and at the same time othering sections of the community .
I really don’t want to see Reform combining with the Tories post election as that will see a move further to the right .
Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Le Pen, Farage and Trump rather than just decrying them they will never be able to effectively challenge them
They are all snake oil salesmen, offering the moon on a stick
How do you engage with voters who are enticed by that without calling bullshit?
“Until politicians are willing to try and understand the fundamental reasons why people vote for Galloway, Corbyn and Melenchon rather than just decrying them”… we see much less of that, because we’ve rightly judged they are moon on stick sellers.
People just get more of a frisson with the far right than the far left.
The far left - is we will ensure everyone gets enough to be happy.
The far right - we will give you what you want by penalising / hurting others..
Many people have other people that they hate so you can see why the far right is popular...
The far left is just as fuelled by hate - and antisemitism - as the far right.
everyone things that the left/right political spectrum is a straight line, in fact it's a doughnut where the very far left and the very far right become indistinguishable authoritarian parties.
Sorry, but that's just wrong, it would mean that I would have more in common with Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch than I would with Tony Blair, Ed Davey or David Cameron, it doesn't pass the smell test for me.
I did use the terms 'very far left' and 'very far right' deliberately. Jeremy Corbyn is as far, if not further, from the 'very far left' as he is from the Liberal Democrats. The same goes for Farage and the 'very far right'.
Fair enough - I thought that when you were talking about very far left you were talking about people like Corbyn, that's what most people do here (I'm more fully automated luxury communism myself)
The problem is that few other than people here would get the subtlety.
Calling Corbyn Far Left as opposed to Very Far Left will be seen as no different to those sympathetic to him and they will think you are smearing them as the sort of person who would support Pol-Pot.
Ditto on the right.
Calling Corbyn Far Left or Farage Far right is a very dangerous thing to do, because the term becomes meaningless, which is of great use to the actual far left and right. Corbyn is Left Farage is Right.
Sunak is Centre Right, Starmer is Centre Left.
For me, the distinction between "far X" and "hard X" is whether they respect the democratic and legal norms or not. Farage respects the democratic and legal framework, so is not "far Right", but "hard Right". Tommy Robinson is "far Right". rfectpy Trump is "far Right". Just Stop Oil are "far Green".
Get your point but I'm not sure the average person on the 60 bus (Clapham Omnibus) will see any difference between far right and hard right. I think just " Right" is better.
For me the right becomes 'far' or 'hard' when it starts blaming all or most of our problems on immigration.
The problem at the moment is that immigration is a problem.
You cannot import 700,000 people a year into a country of limited landmass and expect it not to be a problem, as it is causing a monumental housing and infrastructure crisis.
The problem that lies behind this is even more taboo. That we pay five million people a year to sit at home doing nothing, a good slew of whom are perfectly capable of working.
But our politicians are frightened to end the bread and circuses and don't want to pay the short term cost of increasing training places (and allowing wages to rise in proportion to demand) so they take the easy option and import people.
Which also suits their crony capitalism agenda, as the more people chasing every house the more rent for their landlord mates (or themselves as landlords in a good few cases) and the more people chasing every job the lower wages they can get away with.
Meanwhile the immigrants live in appalling accomodation, do the worst jobs on minimum pay and get the hositility of the general population who blame them for the mess.
The only comment I would make on this is that tory policy towards landlords has been punitive and not beneficial. The conservatives have been trying to blame landlords for the consequences of various other failings in public policy in the hope of appealing to voters. It is one area that Labour should do better in.
I agree with the header. As an ex-Conservative voter I was both frustrated and saddened by the continual right-ward lurches of the party, leaving me behind in an electoral wilderness with no viable LibDem presence and (at the time) Corbyn...
I disagree that the Conservative brand has value. They have destroyed whatever value they had and the only value they have left is the deluded belief by habitual Cons. voters that it can all come good again if they can just get the right leader. The Party is choc-full of nutters and swivel-eyed loons and it needs a d*mn good cleaning out.
A wipeout and some years in the wilderness should eject quite a few idiots and chinless wonders. What a pity that we have to endure the rather grey non-person that is Starmer. I only hope that he has his crazies under control.
And the invisible man (Ed Davey)? We will have to see what is in there when the bandages are unwound.
The 'Conservative' or 'Tory' name or brand may well still have value. There is, so far, no evidence for about a 100 years of trying that a new name or brand can get into the top two in terms of seats. In FPTP only the top two count WRT leading government, the others count in respect of which of the two it is at any time.
The most likely outcome is: The name (Conservative) stays the same; the assets (buildings, money, branch network) have continuity; the position as one of the top two is restored or remains. The contest is for the underlying foundations of their political beliefs. At the moment there are none, and they are intellectually exhausted. Just ask the question: What are coherent ideological underpinnings of the Daily Telegraph or the Spectator? None. Of the Mail you don't even ask the question.
This requires a Peel, Lincoln, Jenkins, Attlee, Thatcher, Blair+. But pragmatism is no longer any good. 'What counts is what works' is no use when that has lost its resonance.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
I agree that Farage must be stopped in his tracks, but what happens if the Tories do go down to a big defeat, and then decide, and I think this is likely to happen, that they were not right wing enough, and Farage is welcomed with open arms, you then end up being a Farage enabler. I could not vote labour why Corbyn and his cronies were in charge, Labour under Starmer learnt their lesson, I'm not sure the Torys are ready to tack back to the centre
When Corbyn led Labour I did not vote for them at either election, it was a matter of principle.
I was tempted in 2017 but knew that if I did the Corbynites would claim it as a vote for them. That is exactly what happened as BigJohnOwls constantly crows about how many votes Corbyn got in 2017 despite the fact that millions of those voters despised Corbyn's brand of politics and he still lost. 2019 gave a far better indication of what people really thought of Corbyn.
I can understand why BigG has voted Tory but I believe he would always have found one fig leaf or another to hide behind as he did when he voted for Johnson in 2019. People are different but I could not bring myself to vote for an MP and government that I knew were useless. Whether he likes it or not his vote will be seen as endorsing Miller/Johnson/Truss/Sunak and their politics.
Re your last paragraph, even if that’s true about finding one fig leaf or another, shouldn’t we be paying attention to that? As a betting site, first and foremost I mean?
Doesn’t it suggest that possibly the current opinion polls are over-egging the demise of the Conservatives?
I’m not saying that this is definitely happening but that’s three people I now know who told me they weren’t going to vote Conservative who now are.
Quite apart from the unsavoury nature of personal abuse, we should be aware as punters .
The 'anger' out there is real but it's also contained within a smaller portion of the electorate than social media and news media suggest. There's a lot of general fatigue. Muscle memory will play a part. May's LEs and LE by elections show us that It is what it is, however exciting the extreme outcomes
Last night I returned from my cycling trip and tomorrow I am back on the campaign trail again.
480 km cycled, fell off once (when your companion points and says 'look at that house', don't, it is not a good idea, particularly if he is likely to stop), ate and drank too much and have sore legs and a sore face due to the sun and the wind. Longest day was 70 km. Visited just too many nice places and met so many other nice cyclists most of which were cycling much further than us and often quite a bit older than us. You are definitely not too old at 69, but at the moment it feels like it.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
There are a number of errors within this but not least that the NHS is not a single monolith. The 4 nations run their own NHS and in England we have 250 or so Trusts, each making autonomous decisions, as well as a plethora of commissioning groups, independent sector NHS providers etc.
I disagree. British Rail was divided into several regions, but it was still under central control.
You need the hospitals and GPs to be genuinely independent and the NHS to be a National Insurance scheme that funds it's members health.
How you do that without ending up with the unfair vastly expensive money pit that the US healthcare system and the UK vetinary and its insurance system has become is why the NHS remains a service provider and is not an insurance system.
Personally I think the mistake Atlees government made with Health, Gas, Electric, Water etc was nationalising them, not reforming local government so that the weaker counties were merged and could take on Health, Energy and Water as the stronger ones like LCC (which already effectively ran a Londonwide "NHS") already did.
Nationalisation made the thing far too big with too much remote bureacracy and not enough diversity of practice (as such diversity allows good practice to be shown to be better than bad practice).
But confiscating the infrastructure paid for by ratepayers was easy as no compensation had to be paid. So it was the easy option.
I agree with the header. As an ex-Conservative voter I was both frustrated and saddened by the continual right-ward lurches of the party, leaving me behind in an electoral wilderness with no viable LibDem presence and (at the time) Corbyn...
I disagree that the Conservative brand has value. They have destroyed whatever value they had and the only value they have left is the deluded belief by habitual Cons. voters that it can all come good again if they can just get the right leader. The Party is choc-full of nutters and swivel-eyed loons and it needs a d*mn good cleaning out.
A wipeout and some years in the wilderness should eject quite a few idiots and chinless wonders. What a pity that we have to endure the rather grey non-person that is Starmer. I only hope that he has his crazies under control.
And the invisible man (Ed Davey)? We will have to see what is in there when the bandages are unwound.
The 'Conservative' or 'Tory' name or brand may well still have value. There is, so far, no evidence for about a 100 years of trying that a new name or brand can get into the top two in terms of seats. In FPTP only the top two count WRT leading government, the others count in respect of which of the two it is at any time.
The most likely outcome is: The name (Conservative) stays the same; the assets (buildings, money, branch network) have continuity; the position as one of the top two is restored or remains. The contest is for the underlying foundations of their political beliefs. At the moment there are none, and they are intellectually exhausted. Just ask the question: What are coherent ideological underpinnings of the Daily Telegraph or the Spectator? None. Of the Mail you don't even ask the question.
This requires a Peel, Lincoln, Jenkins, Attlee, Thatcher, Blair+. But pragmatism is no longer any good. 'What counts is what works' is no use when that has lost its resonance.
Mr. Dyed, I still recall the 2010 stupid debates for the first time, and people complaining the parties were all too similar.
And Clegg getting a ridiculous bounce by looking down the camera lens whilst Gordon fan boyed him like a lovesick teen all debate So Cameron copied him and won the second debate by a street
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
It's not the disgreement, Heathener, so much as the idea of telling someone else how to vote.
The Site is at its best when it's an exchange of views, preferably on politics or betting, but pizza and Radiohead is also acceptable. That's different from telling someone what to do when they get in the booth.
Anyone tries that with me, they'll get a piece off pizza up the arse, with topping.
So long as the topping isn't pineapple....
I had a pineapple pizza yesterday as it was discounted in Sainsbury's. Bland like most pizzas that don't have anchovies or chilli.
Are you trying to start another argument?
Sorry to come late to the party, but Things have been Happening. However I’m now here, and I have to say I’m disappointed at the Family G’s decision. They are of course, entitled to make it, but I do feel that abusing Ed Davey alone for his actions in the Bates case seems a tad unfair. It wasn’t the Coalition that gave Paula Vennels an honour, either.
That said, I think the header has something going for it, in the sense that if (and it’s a VERY big if) the Reform vote exceeds that of the Conservatives it will be the second time recently that the latter have done exceedingly badly in a national vote.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
There are a number of errors within this but not least that the NHS is not a single monolith. The 4 nations run their own NHS and in England we have 250 or so Trusts, each making autonomous decisions, as well as a plethora of commissioning groups, independent sector NHS providers etc.
Yes, ironically my own fix for the NHS is to centralise the damn thing and take out all the inefficiencies of all those different trusts and the silly internal market.
I agree with the header. As an ex-Conservative voter I was both frustrated and saddened by the continual right-ward lurches of the party, leaving me behind in an electoral wilderness with no viable LibDem presence and (at the time) Corbyn...
I disagree that the Conservative brand has value. They have destroyed whatever value they had and the only value they have left is the deluded belief by habitual Cons. voters that it can all come good again if they can just get the right leader. The Party is choc-full of nutters and swivel-eyed loons and it needs a d*mn good cleaning out.
A wipeout and some years in the wilderness should eject quite a few idiots and chinless wonders. What a pity that we have to endure the rather grey non-person that is Starmer. I only hope that he has his crazies under control.
And the invisible man (Ed Davey)? We will have to see what is in there when the bandages are unwound.
The 'Conservative' or 'Tory' name or brand may well still have value. There is, so far, no evidence for about a 100 years of trying that a new name or brand can get into the top two in terms of seats. In FPTP only the top two count WRT leading government, the others count in respect of which of the two it is at any time.
The most likely outcome is: The name (Conservative) stays the same; the assets (buildings, money, branch network) have continuity; the position as one of the top two is restored or remains. The contest is for the underlying foundations of their political beliefs. At the moment there are none, and they are intellectually exhausted. Just ask the question: What are coherent ideological underpinnings of the Daily Telegraph or the Spectator? None. Of the Mail you don't even ask the question.
This requires a Peel, Lincoln, Jenkins, Attlee, Thatcher, Blair+. But pragmatism is no longer any good. 'What counts is what works' is no use when that has lost its resonance.
Never mind Attlee and the Spectator, the central point is that the leadership is in the gift of the befuddled oldies who gave Truss a landslide.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
Morning Big G.
I get your argument, I'm a refugee from the sea left of Labour but if I were in the neighbouring constituency of Romsey and Southampton North I would probably vote for Caroline Nokes on the grounds that at least she's moderate and the stronger the moderate wing of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is post election, the less likely they will put a Reform-lite candidate to the members.
However in Bangor Aberconwy you've got Robin Millar, he's not on the moderate wing, he's on the stoke the culture wars, anti free speech, Faragist wing of your party. He seems to be on the different side of the Conservative Party to you. Why would you want to vote for him to get back to Westminster?
Thank you for your query
Robin Miller was canvassed by me to vote out Johnson and he made a poor attempt at justifying Johnson to remain in post
He is going to lose no matter, so he will not return to parliament and it is why my wife and my two votes will not alter the result but in a very small way will contribute hopefully to the conservatives outpolling Reform
I think some on here, rather than attacking me, need to understand that this was a decision made jointly by my wife and I after considering the consequences of voting for the conservatives who we both agree will not form the next government anytime soon
Like I said, the issue is all the self-delusion you have been posting up here and expected us to read and take seriously. Exactly the same happened for the last election.
I don’t get the attack on BigG, this is supposed to be a betting site for politics and what better info can a bettor have than seeing people’s minds going through the motions ahead of making their decision.
BigG’s posts probably represent a substantial block of Tories who are going through the same tortured decision making and I don’t think it’s necessary to attack him - many of us (well I know I have) have posted plenty of stuff on here that deserves opprobrium but I want to read how people are thinking about politics and how they come to decisions.
Maybe you’ve never had your belief system buffeted and damaged like say BigG has with his disappointment with the Tories since Boris but it’s a long held belief system and very hard to shake off.
If you want things to have a go at just wait until I start posting bollocks later - plenty more to rip apart there.
I’ll scroll back to see what that’s all about ref. @Big_G_NorthWales but if it’s a consolation to him, my Surrey tory friend is going through the same inner turmoil. Having told me she was voting Lib Dem she now seems massively conflicted. She says she doesn’t know who she is going to vote for. She intensely dislikes the nastiness of the current tory party and is in despair about the direction they have gone. But she has voted for them all her life.
I suspect she’s going to vote Conservative.
A story that will be repeated a few million times across the UK. It is what it is. 'DK' but they do, they do
Those that don't know, don't vote.
Suspect that betting on a low turnout might be a winner this time around.
Yes, but I wouldn't overdo it. We've had a couple of black swans already. There may be more coming which will encourage people to vote.
Here’s an interesting story, what do we think given the headlines Sunak got for missing the end of the D-Day commemorations?
“US vice president Kamala Harris will attend the international Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland this weekend, where she will meet with Volodymyr Zelensky and address world leaders.
Ms Harris, who will spend less than 24 hours at the gathering in Lucerne, will be standing in for president Joe Biden at the event. The president will be just ending his participation at the G7 summit in Italy and returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser for his re-election campaign in Los Angeles.”
Here’s an interesting story, what do we think given the headlines Sunak got for missing the end of the D-Day commemorations?
“US vice president Kamala Harris will attend the international Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland this weekend, where she will meet with Volodymyr Zelensky and address world leaders.
Ms Harris, who will spend less than 24 hours at the gathering in Lucerne, will be standing in for president Joe Biden at the event. The president will be just ending his participation at the G7 summit in Italy and returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser for his re-election campaign in Los Angeles.”
Here’s an interesting story, what do we think given the headlines Sunak got for missing the end of the D-Day commemorations?
“US vice president Kamala Harris will attend the international Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland this weekend, where she will meet with Volodymyr Zelensky and address world leaders.
Ms Harris, who will spend less than 24 hours at the gathering in Lucerne, will be standing in for president Joe Biden at the event. The president will be just ending his participation at the G7 summit in Italy and returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser for his re-election campaign in Los Angeles.”
There are quite a few more placards out and about - I've now perhaps seen around ~50-60 in toto, which are probably 30-40 Ashfield Independent, ~10 Reform and 6-7 Labour. Tories, LD, Green are invisible.
Ashfield Independents have a stronger ground game, as they have 42 from 45 Councillors approx, and I guess they have been recruiting at eg surgeries or casework visits for some time. AI are being more strategic in targeting through roads in eg 1960s or 1990s LTNs. On one main road I counted about 10 in half a mile.
I have yet to see their "4000 placards going out" claim by their leaflet distribution man, which would be 1 in 10 houses or so across the constituency.
Lee Anderson's are noticeably in areas where he had a personal vote as a Councillor, and in a couple of particular locations where I know he has unfinished casework. He has been asking for placard planters via social media.
On a tiny sample Labour seem to be in slightly more affluent areas, and trad terraced houses.
Did anyone really doubt BigG would end up voting Conservative? 😏 As for "Sir Alan Bates" accepting his honour..I'm sure lessons really will be learnt by the establishment now..🥴
A net transfer of honour from Vennell to Bates is excellent news
A net transfer of prison time from the jailed postmasters to the Post Office leadership would be even better.
In return there can be a net transfer of money from the Post Office leadership to the jailed postmasters
Dramatic developments on PB this morning. Swingback has, at last. started. It began with a murmur in North Wales, and is already rippling across the nation(s) as doubters return to the Tory fold. The Tories' new campaign, with the slogan "Better the Devil you know", will increase the ripple to a tsunami. Tory majority, or at worse a hung parliament, nailed on.
Nah but were you up for Wes, Jess and Shabhana?
Yes. All three won, comfortably.
I shall peer into my chronovisor and check this information.......
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
There are a number of errors within this but not least that the NHS is not a single monolith. The 4 nations run their own NHS and in England we have 250 or so Trusts, each making autonomous decisions, as well as a plethora of commissioning groups, independent sector NHS providers etc.
Yes, ironically my own fix for the NHS is to centralise the damn thing and take out all the inefficiencies of all those different trusts and the silly internal market.
The problem is that faux trusts and internal markets give you the worst of both worlds. The inefficiencies of nationalisation (weak management, producer interest too strong the dead hand of bureaucracy) remain but you also get the weaknesses of privatisation (a supply chain with price markups at each level, people to administer it, spivs in mondeos on high salaries to sell between bits of it and nothing happens until a legal contract is drawn up at great expense instead of a manager saying "Do This"
And a placard update from the capital of the Wuffinfgas Kingdom, Southern section. A few greens starting to pop up here and there but at nowhere near usual levels. Labour invisible, as are the rest, no leaflets. I still think Greens finally take second to Clive Lewis this year, if the (very very) silent 25% Tory Norwich South core don't start to disintegrate this time they never will and the Greens stand every chance of taking Norwich Council from an incumbent Labour administration next time
Here’s an interesting story, what do we think given the headlines Sunak got for missing the end of the D-Day commemorations?
“US vice president Kamala Harris will attend the international Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland this weekend, where she will meet with Volodymyr Zelensky and address world leaders.
Ms Harris, who will spend less than 24 hours at the gathering in Lucerne, will be standing in for president Joe Biden at the event. The president will be just ending his participation at the G7 summit in Italy and returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser for his re-election campaign in Los Angeles.”
Biden should really just hand over to Harris and have done with it. I don’t know how she would fare in the election (quite possibly, badly), but he clearly isn’t the right person for another 4 years. Given there are such low expectations on Harris, there could be a fair bit of “surprising on the upside’.
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I don’t think he was being abusive. Big_G has himself been making a big thing about not voting Tory. Now he tells us he is voting Tory. That’s worthy of remark.
I think the snide ‘oh there’s a surprise’ stuff is totally unnecessary.
The rise of Farage, and particularly that opinion poll has rightly caused consternation for a lot of people.
I can totally understand why it has caused a shift.
And I don’t think this is an easy voting choice election. I make no secret of the fact that I want the Conservatives removed from office. I think they have lurched in a horrible rightwards direction back to being the Nasty Party. But, by heck, Farage’s Reform are a whole extra level of nastiness. I will vote LibDem tactically.
But, frankly, Starmer’s Labour are very centrist. I suspect that John Major would have sat perfectly happily in his Cabinet.
This is by far and away the most interesting election of my lifetime and it’s complex like none other.
I am now hoping that the Conservatives do okay and form the main Opposition, that they resist the right-ward lurch and return to the centre-right where they belong.
You think Sir John Major could have sat in a Cabinet committed to votes at 16, nationalisation of rail, taxes on public schools, diluting the green belt, banning more hunting, ending north sea oil, unspecified tax rises, and social controls like banning energy drinks under 16?
No, he wouldn’t, he’s a conservative. Absent his history he might not vote for this Tory platform (of course he will in reality), as a voter he might even compromise and vote for that lot like I expect to. But he wouldn’t be part of that Cabinet.
"In every single sphere of British influence, the upper echelons of power in 2013 are held overwhelmingly by the privately educated or the affluent middle class," he said.
"To me, from my background, I find that truly shocking."
He added: "I remember enough of my past to be outraged on behalf of the people abandoned when social mobility is lost... we need them to fly as high as their luck, their ability and their sheer hard graft can actually take them.
Another campaign day, another load of rubbish about the death of the Tory party and sensationalist Farage hype. Whilst not impossible, I severely doubt any of the hyped outcomes.
Farage is not leader of the opposition and will continue to struggle to win a seat. There will be a Lib Dem recovery in parts of the south and west. Labour will vastly impose on 2019 and will have achieved an amazing result to get a majority of one. Today it looks like they will get a majority, but it will be far smaller than the polls suggest.
It is a very valid point that for Labour to get a majority of one with the new electoral boundaries, they need a swing almost as big as Blair got in 1997.
They will be just as concerned about Farage as CCHQ.
Unfortunately their first tweet attacking Farage yesterday, saying he would end the NHS as we know it (he favours a French style insurance system) rather blew up in their face. People don't want a US type system but recognise that pouring money into an institution resembling a soviet tractor corporation top heavy, hidebound with bureaucracy and archaic practices, cannot go on.
Proportion of health spending on administration in France: 5.5%
Proportion of health spending on administration in the UK: 1.9%
Without getting into a big argument on stats. I think that the core problem with the NHS is that it is a single, very heirachical institution.
This entrenches inefficient practices, which is why fax machines were still in use as recently as last year, and makes bullying and cover up much easier.
Why is there no equivalent of the Rail Industry Confidential Reporting System, CIRAS in the NHS for example. https://www.ciras.org.uk/
The problem is that the institution/structure is rotten and actively impedes the medical staff doing their job efficiently.
The bigger problem is how you reform and decentralise it without ending up something worse, like US healthcare or UK Vets.
But things cannot go as they are, and reform has to be tackled before it happens in a disorderly way to the benefit of vultures and sharks (see USSR 1991 for details)
There are a number of errors within this but not least that the NHS is not a single monolith. The 4 nations run their own NHS and in England we have 250 or so Trusts, each making autonomous decisions, as well as a plethora of commissioning groups, independent sector NHS providers etc.
Yes, ironically my own fix for the NHS is to centralise the damn thing and take out all the inefficiencies of all those different trusts and the silly internal market.
The problem is that faux trusts and internal markets give you the worst of both worlds. The inefficiencies of nationalisation (weak management, producer interest too strong the dead hand of bureaucracy) remain but you also get the weaknesses of privatisation (a supply chain with price markups at each level, people to administer it, spivs in mondeos on high salaries to sell between bits of it and nothing happens until a legal contract is drawn up at great expense instead of a manager saying "Do This"
There is a similar problem on the railways.
Yes, if I squint I can see why one might want to encourage different outcomes in different trusts to “encourage innovation”. But that’s nonsense. Everyone should get the same care, and equipment should be standardised.
I was once involved with a bit of work around a new design of episiotomy scissors. They were just better in every way, and reduced damage by tens of percent. Getting trusts to take them one by one was inefficient nonsense - it needed central command and control.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
...To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat...
I forget how long you have been here but I'd be surprised if it wasn't for at least three elections including this one. Each time you ponder deeply about the general trends of the world, lament upon the government and its actions, and then vote for it. The Conservative Party is your home in a way it is for few others on this site I think, and I will be surprised if you vote for anybody else again, in the hopefully lengthy years to come
2014 was the year I joined and I have been a conservative for most of my life but I did vote for Blair twice
What seems to be missing is that my wife and I rarely discuss politics as we did last night when she revealed she is very anti Davey, but we also are totally opposed to Farage and his declared aim to take over the conservative party
Our decision was made after quite a 'chat' and maybe our 60 years together helps us to come together and we are content with our decision
I knew it would cause controversy on here, and a degree of almost abuse, but then better I am honest in declaring our decision when maybe it would have been easier to stay silent
Interestingly I was in our local post office this morning which was unusually quiet and I commented on Alan Bates knighthood
The conversation went onto politics and she said that most everyone she speaks to are disillusion and angry with all the politicians and for all the promises and she opined that a lot of them are simply not going to vote
Now I know this may have betting implications and may well reflect the nation today, but she did not have a good word to say about anyone in public office
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
I don’t think he was being abusive. Big_G has himself been making a big thing about not voting Tory. Now he tells us he is voting Tory. That’s worthy of remark.
I think the snide ‘oh there’s a surprise’ stuff is totally unnecessary.
The rise of Farage, and particularly that opinion poll has rightly caused consternation for a lot of people.
I can totally understand why it has caused a shift.
And I don’t think this is an easy voting choice election. I make no secret of the fact that I want the Conservatives removed from office. I think they have lurched in a horrible rightwards direction back to being the Nasty Party. But, by heck, Farage’s Reform are a whole extra level of nastiness. I will vote LibDem tactically.
But, frankly, Starmer’s Labour are very centrist. I suspect that John Major would have sat perfectly happily in his Cabinet.
This is by far and away the most interesting election of my lifetime and it’s complex like none other.
I am now hoping that the Conservatives do okay and form the main Opposition, that they resist the right-ward lurch and return to the centre-right where they belong.
You think Sir John Major could have sat in a Cabinet committed to votes at 16, nationalisation of rail, taxes on public schools, diluting the green belt, banning more hunting, ending north sea oil, unspecified tax rises, and social controls like banning energy drinks under 16?
No, he wouldn’t, he’s a conservative. Absent his history he might not vote for this Tory platform (of course he will in reality), as a voter he might even compromise and vote for that lot like I expect to. But he wouldn’t be part of that Cabinet.
"In every single sphere of British influence, the upper echelons of power in 2013 are held overwhelmingly by the privately educated or the affluent middle class," he said.
"To me, from my background, I find that truly shocking."
He added: "I remember enough of my past to be outraged on behalf of the people abandoned when social mobility is lost... we need them to fly as high as their luck, their ability and their sheer hard graft can actually take them.
"And it is not going to happen magically."
And? Not a secret that he was in favour of the “classless society”. That was his big drive, and one I wholeheartedly supported.
If you can find a quote in which he wants to scrap public schools, rather than increase grants and bursaries then good luck.
I agree with the header. As an ex-Conservative voter I was both frustrated and saddened by the continual right-ward lurches of the party, leaving me behind in an electoral wilderness with no viable LibDem presence and (at the time) Corbyn...
I disagree that the Conservative brand has value. They have destroyed whatever value they had and the only value they have left is the deluded belief by habitual Cons. voters that it can all come good again if they can just get the right leader. The Party is choc-full of nutters and swivel-eyed loons and it needs a d*mn good cleaning out.
A wipeout and some years in the wilderness should eject quite a few idiots and chinless wonders. What a pity that we have to endure the rather grey non-person that is Starmer. I only hope that he has his crazies under control.
And the invisible man (Ed Davey)? We will have to see what is in there when the bandages are unwound.
The 'Conservative' or 'Tory' name or brand may well still have value. There is, so far, no evidence for about a 100 years of trying that a new name or brand can get into the top two in terms of seats. In FPTP only the top two count WRT leading government, the others count in respect of which of the two it is at any time.
The most likely outcome is: The name (Conservative) stays the same; the assets (buildings, money, branch network) have continuity; the position as one of the top two is restored or remains. The contest is for the underlying foundations of their political beliefs. At the moment there are none, and they are intellectually exhausted. Just ask the question: What are coherent ideological underpinnings of the Daily Telegraph or the Spectator? None. Of the Mail you don't even ask the question.
This requires a Peel, Lincoln, Jenkins, Attlee, Thatcher, Blair+. But pragmatism is no longer any good. 'What counts is what works' is no use when that has lost its resonance.
Never mind Attlee and the Spectator, the central point is that the leadership is in the gift of the befuddled oldies who gave Truss a landslide.
Point taken, but. Not if the MPs decide it isn't; and secondly a Tory party with visibly nothing left in the way of seats and ideas is ripe for the good sort of entryism from people who see that Labour is currently full of very bright young hopefuls, 480 of them on the green benches, and want to look 5-10 years ahead to when the alternative will be needed. The Tory party of 10 years time is where to look now if you are 16-30 and want a career in politics. Centre right Zoomers to replace the ageing Boomers?
Here’s an interesting story, what do we think given the headlines Sunak got for missing the end of the D-Day commemorations?
“US vice president Kamala Harris will attend the international Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland this weekend, where she will meet with Volodymyr Zelensky and address world leaders.
Ms Harris, who will spend less than 24 hours at the gathering in Lucerne, will be standing in for president Joe Biden at the event. The president will be just ending his participation at the G7 summit in Italy and returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser for his re-election campaign in Los Angeles.”
“Returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser” is code for “tucked up in bed with a horlicks” isn’t it?
Ha possibly. I suspect that there’s only so many days they can keep him ‘awake and alert’ before he needs some time to recover.
The different media environment in the US, with partisan ‘news’ channels, probably means that this won’t cut through in the same way as does in the UK. Fox News will run all day with it, but they’re preaching to the choir of conservatives who already dislike the guy.
On the substance of the summit, I think there’s a real opportunity for Ukraine in the coming months, with evidence of Russian air defences being short in both numbers and capability, and vulnerable to being taken out by small drones. If Ukraine can achieve air superiority, they have a real opportunity to gain significant ground over the summer.
Apologies if already posted, but there's an article on the BBC website about political betting where they talk to some guy called "Mike Smithson" who apparently created a website called "politicalbetting.com".
Here’s an interesting story, what do we think given the headlines Sunak got for missing the end of the D-Day commemorations?
“US vice president Kamala Harris will attend the international Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland this weekend, where she will meet with Volodymyr Zelensky and address world leaders.
Ms Harris, who will spend less than 24 hours at the gathering in Lucerne, will be standing in for president Joe Biden at the event. The president will be just ending his participation at the G7 summit in Italy and returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser for his re-election campaign in Los Angeles.”
“Returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser” is code for “tucked up in bed with a horlicks” isn’t it?
Ha possibly. I suspect that there’s only so many days they can keep him ‘awake and alert’ before he needs some time to recover.
The different media environment in the US, with partisan ‘news’ channels, probably means that this won’t cut through in the same way as does in the UK. Fox News will run all day with it, but they’re preaching to the choir of conservatives who already dislike the guy.
On the substance of the summit, I think there’s a real opportunity for Ukraine in the coming months, with evidence of Russian air defences being short in both numbers and capability, and vulnerable to being taken out by small drones. If Ukraine can achieve air superiority, they have a real opportunity to gain significant ground over the summer.
I wondered whether the cash from Russian assets will help cover the risk of a Trump win. Presumably he won’t mind selling them arms in return for that cash.
...To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat...
I forget how long you have been here but I'd be surprised if it wasn't for at least three elections including this one. Each time you ponder deeply about the general trends of the world, lament upon the government and its actions, and then vote for it. The Conservative Party is your home in a way it is for few others on this site I think, and I will be surprised if you vote for anybody else again, in the hopefully lengthy years to come
2014 was the year I joined and I have been a conservative for most of my life but I did vote for Blair twice
What seems to be missing is that my wife and I rarely discuss politics as we did last night when she revealed she is very anti Davey, but we also are totally opposed to Farage and his declared aim to take over the conservative party
Our decision was made after quite a 'chat' and maybe our 60 years together helps us to come together and we are content with our decision
I knew it would cause controversy on here, and a degree of almost abuse, but then better I am honest in declaring our decision when maybe it would have been easier to stay silent
Interestingly I was in our local post office this morning which was unusually quiet and I commented on Alan Bates knighthood
The conversation went onto politics and she said that most everyone she speaks to are disillusion and angry with all the politicians and for all the promises and she opined that a lot of them are simply not going to vote
Now I know this may have betting implications and may well reflect the nation today, but she did not have a good word to say about anyone in public office
You are obviously fully entitled to your own views and logic but hopefully you can see that the idea that the answer to disillusionment and anger with all politicians is to vote for more of the same (14 years in a row plus two thirds of the last fifty) is a bit odd?
For balance I disagree with the hope of the destruction of the conservative party not least because there is a place for a centre right party in our politics
I broke the story of Sunak debacle over DDay and am very angry to this day and I said I would vote Lib Dem in protest
With the postal votes about to arrive I told my wife, who said that nothing could bring her to vote for that 'Clown' Ed Davey after watching him foolng around on water and the role he played in the Post Office disgrace not least because she knows Alan Bates and was a customer at his post office here in Llandudno
She is not generally political, but we spoke about our votes and both agreed Sunak has failed and the conservatives are in a desperate state but far more worrying is the rise of Farage which horrifies us
To us it is important that the conservatives out poll Reform, and we have agreed that we will vote for the conservative candidate though it will have no effect on labour regaining the seat
I know Ed Davey and his antics are popular on here but certainly not reflected by my wife's opinion
And today's shock news, BigG ends up voting Tory after all just as most of us knew he always would despite him constantly telling us he wouldn't. Hilarious.
This is the kind of unpleasant personal pile-on that drags down this site.
It’s a broad church, and was always so under Mike Smithson’s watch. We should be able to disagree without getting so personally abusive.
It's not the disgreement, Heathener, so much as the idea of telling someone else how to vote.
The Site is at its best when it's an exchange of views, preferably on politics or betting, but pizza and Radiohead is also acceptable. That's different from telling someone what to do when they get in the booth.
Anyone tries that with me, they'll get a piece off pizza up the arse, with topping.
Comments
Anyway, there are hordes of folk like Big_G hence why my betting position on the Tories is rather generous.
The problem with the system is a minister responds based upon a draft letter supported by a briefing prepared by his civil servants. The civil servants are not keen on opening a can of worms so go defensive. I have read dozens of these in the FOI. Not once does the letter differ from the civil servants draft and not once does the minister raise questions about the briefing.
Why? Because they are overworked with too much on their plate, have no experience in the portfolio they hold and change ministerial jobs far too frequently. They rely on civil servants who don't want to rock the boat. In our case we have received a decade of crap, before it finally broke and the compensation is still outstanding. Most of those impacted are in their 80s or dead.
So every minister who had this in their portfolio is at fault, but those at most fault are the most recent as at least it was more apparent then and the vast majority were Tories, yet @Big_G_NorthWales lays the blame on Davey and gives the Tories a free ride.
The rise of Farage, and particularly that opinion poll has rightly caused consternation for a lot of people.
I can totally understand why it has caused a shift.
And I don’t think this is an easy voting choice election. I make no secret of the fact that I want the Conservatives removed from office. I think they have lurched in a horrible rightwards direction back to being the Nasty Party. But, by heck, Farage’s Reform are a whole extra level of nastiness. I will vote LibDem tactically.
But, frankly, Starmer’s Labour are very centrist. I suspect that John Major would have sat perfectly happily in his Cabinet.
This is by far and away the most interesting election of my lifetime and it’s complex like none other.
I am now hoping that the Conservatives do okay and form the main Opposition, that they resist the right-ward lurch and return to the centre-right where they belong.
I enjoy debating on here but that is a side that is a bit unfriendly. I like having diversity of thought on here, it shouldn’t be an echo chamber.
By that logic I would have thought you would support his position?
They used to be One Nation Tories, a bit Majorite, but have in recent years gone down the rabbit hole, watching GB News and getting het up about immigrants. This is despite my Dad being a son of immigrants, two of his daughters in law being immigrants, and migrating to work abroad twice in his life. I suspect that my Dad is leaning Reform, and my Mum unenthusiastically Tory.
They live in Romsey, so have a Nokes as their MP, not someone they approve of for a variety of reasons.
I suspect they will reluctantly vote Conservative in the end.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6pp5emm95do
(Mike and PB get lots of mentions)
What I think is now most interesting about the election is how much will Farage splitting the Tory vote
1. Affect the number of Tories returned, maybe putting them third.
2. Affect the number of MPs for other parties, LibDem, Green, Reform etc
3. Affect which Tories are left after the dust settles. This will determine whether we get a Tory party that can recover or one that goes hard right.
The Conservatives have benefitted for decades by the anti-tory vote being split. If Reform are more than a flash in the pan this could be a reaaly big change.
I would think that it would be a difficult job to work this out from the polling, but it would be interesting to know.
If they ever got close to government they'd make fall apart in months and make the Conservatives look supremely competent.
What I want is the selection of excellent and talented candidates and a future Conservative government that actually delivers on its manifesto.
Agree if they actually won it would be a disaster. But unless the Tories junk crony cspitalism, financialisation of anything and everything and taking easy decisions over painful reforms, that is what we will get eventually.
For what it is worth I think Starmer is getting a hospital pass and the 2029 election will see a Tory/Labour coalition that has a tiny majority and relies on Libdem abstaining to get leguslation through, as I don't think Starmer and his team have the backbone or talent to deal with what is coming down the line.
This polling is interesting though, with 46% of Britons wanting Tories on no seats, including 24% of 2019 Tory voters.
https://pfdatablog.com/blog/how-does-the-public-feel-about-a-tory-wipe-out
So @jamesdoyle is not in a very small majority, but in one approaching a majority.
I think the 24% is now Reform and not recoverable by the Tories, and that the motivation to deliver a punishment is very strong.
I am on the turnout band of 62.49 to 65% band.
This made me smile - the BBC 'fact checking' supposedly controversial statements by Nigel Farage and not really being able to fault what he said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2998klx2y0o
Recommendation: If you want to beat the 'far right threat' you have to address their policies not just appealing to an assumption that they are fascist scum. IE how many prison places do they need to build for their tougher sentencing. Where are these military bases they are converting to prisons, etc. How are they going to do recruitment for health care, public services etc with net zero immigration.
I would also say that there isn't much between Reform and the Tories in terms of being 'far right'. I am remembering the 'windrush' deportations and the 'go home or be arrested' vans. Also the Rwanda policy. Surely this is all the same thing?
480 km cycled, fell off once (when your companion points and says 'look at that house', don't, it is not a good idea, particularly if he is likely to stop), ate and drank too much and have sore legs and a sore face due to the sun and the wind. Longest day was 70 km. Visited just too many nice places and met so many other nice cyclists most of which were cycling much further than us and often quite a bit older than us. You are definitely not too old at 69, but at the moment it feels like it.
By UK Vets do you mean the UK Veteran setup, or NHS as James Herriot + the PDSA?
Not the fault of the rest of us it's a pile of shit. I hope you don't mind me being blunt.
I was tempted in 2017 but knew that if I did the Corbynites would claim it as a vote for them. That is exactly what happened as BigJohnOwls constantly crows about how many votes Corbyn got in 2017 despite the fact that millions of those voters despised Corbyn's brand of politics and he still lost. 2019 gave a far better indication of what people really thought of Corbyn.
I can understand why BigG has voted Tory but I believe he would always have found one fig leaf or another to hide behind as he did when he voted for Johnson in 2019. People are different but I could not bring myself to vote for an MP and government that I knew were useless. Whether he likes it or not his vote will be seen as endorsing Miller/Johnson/Truss/Sunak and their politics.
Elsewhere, anyone but Reform.
If the Reform-curious right have more than a third of the MPs, they can get one of their own through to the membership vote. Indeed, a bit less than a third will do the job. That's not certain, but it seems plausible.
And whilst the membership don't have to vote for the loopiest right winger they are offered, it will require remarkable self-restraint.
If the final round ends up as (say) Cleverly-Badenoch, that's bad but not too bad. But Braverman-someone else, that only ends in one, disastrous way.
And yet, history, memory and identity are powerful things for people. Ultimately, I'm a dripping wet one nation conservative. I've not voted for them for a while, I think this government is a disaster, everything they say and do screams "why don't you (go away) and join the Liberals?"
But that's still a step too far.
I disagree that the Conservative brand has value. They have destroyed whatever value they had and the only value they have left is the deluded belief by habitual Cons. voters that it can all come good again if they can just get the right leader. The Party is choc-full of nutters and swivel-eyed loons and it needs a d*mn good cleaning out.
A wipeout and some years in the wilderness should eject quite a few idiots and chinless wonders. What a pity that we have to endure the rather grey non-person that is Starmer. I only hope that he has his crazies under control.
And the invisible man (Ed Davey)? We will have to see what is in there when the bandages are unwound.
Thank-you for the thought provoking header. I'm inclined to agree with most of it.
When Bojo came in my hope was for a wider-based centre/centre-right coalition, especially rebalancing the Tory voting coalition with the Red Wall.
But they went incompetent, populist and unprincipled instead. My vain hope is dashed
Now I judge the better opportunity for such a thing is focused more around the centre-left.
My best sports spectating memory by a country mile is driving rather fast in a Jensen GT back from the Mans to catch the Calais ferry after jaguars 1 2 3 victory over the sales boches in 1988. Cheers and union jacks from every single house on the entire route. Felt like d Day.
No, he wouldn’t, he’s a conservative. Absent his history he might not vote for this Tory platform (of course he will in reality), as a voter he might even compromise and vote for that lot like I expect to. But he wouldn’t be part of that Cabinet.
Tory majority, or at worse a hung parliament, nailed on.
As for "Sir Alan Bates" accepting his honour..I'm sure lessons really will be learnt by the establishment now..🥴
You cannot import 700,000 people a year into a country of limited landmass and expect it not to be a problem, as it is causing a monumental housing and infrastructure crisis.
The problem that lies behind this is even more taboo. That we pay five million people a year to sit at home doing nothing, a good slew of whom are perfectly capable of working.
But our politicians are frightened to end the bread and circuses and don't want to pay the short term cost of increasing training places (and allowing wages to rise in proportion to demand) so they take the easy option and import people.
Which also suits their crony capitalism agenda, as the more people chasing every house the more rent for their landlord mates (or themselves as landlords in a good few cases) and the more people chasing every job the lower wages they can get away with.
Meanwhile the immigrants live in appalling accomodation, do the worst jobs on minimum pay and get the hositility of the general population who blame them for the mess.
https://x.com/stancollymore/status/1801910359281791007?s=61
In this country, we desperately need the political class to start thinking about talking about areas that are outside their comfort zone. Things like immigration and asylum, but also how sustainable the current NHS model is (and what could replace it), how to revolutionise the education system to provide the skilled workforce of the future, etc. We need our politicians to be bolder, before snake oil salesmen move in and take over the pitch entirely.
Dismissing Reform out of hand isn't just antidemocratic, it's also shit politics.
I'd summarise the situation by saying Reform ask a lot of the right questions but come up with the wrong answers, mostly because they're not seriously looking for answers. I'd make the same criticism of the Greens.
Which leads me to a real sympathy for those voting Reform. Because I may well vote Green for the same reason. I don't actually want them to win because they're economically illiterate. But I'd like someone economically literate to sit up and take notice of the questions they're raising.
Doesn’t it suggest that possibly the current opinion polls are over-egging the demise of the Conservatives?
I’m not saying that this is definitely happening but that’s three people I now know who told me they weren’t going to vote Conservative who now are.
Quite apart from the unsavoury nature of personal abuse, we should be aware as punters .
The most likely outcome is: The name (Conservative) stays the same; the assets (buildings, money, branch network) have continuity; the position as one of the top two is restored or remains. The contest is for the underlying foundations of their political beliefs. At the moment there are none, and they are intellectually exhausted. Just ask the question: What are coherent ideological underpinnings of the Daily Telegraph or the Spectator? None. Of the Mail you don't even ask the question.
This requires a Peel, Lincoln, Jenkins, Attlee, Thatcher, Blair+. But pragmatism is no longer any good. 'What counts is what works' is no use when that has lost its resonance.
Muscle memory will play a part. May's LEs and LE by elections show us that
It is what it is, however exciting the extreme outcomes
You need the hospitals and GPs to be genuinely independent and the NHS to be a National Insurance scheme that funds it's members health.
How you do that without ending up with the unfair vastly expensive money pit that the US healthcare system and the UK vetinary and its insurance system has become is why the NHS remains a service provider and is not an insurance system.
Personally I think the mistake Atlees government made with Health, Gas, Electric, Water etc was nationalising them, not reforming local government so that the weaker counties were merged and could take on Health, Energy and Water as the stronger ones like LCC (which already effectively ran a Londonwide "NHS") already did.
Nationalisation made the thing far too big with too much remote bureacracy and not enough diversity of practice (as such diversity allows good practice to be shown to be better than bad practice).
But confiscating the infrastructure paid for by ratepayers was easy as no compensation had to be paid. So it was the easy option.
So Cameron copied him and won the second debate by a street
Sorry to come late to the party, but Things have been Happening. However I’m now here, and I have to say I’m disappointed at the Family G’s decision. They are of course, entitled to make it, but I do feel that abusing Ed Davey alone for his actions in the Bates case seems a tad unfair. It wasn’t the Coalition that gave Paula Vennels an honour, either.
That said, I think the header has something going for it, in the sense that if (and it’s a VERY big if) the Reform vote exceeds that of the Conservatives it will be the second time recently that the latter have done exceedingly badly in a national vote.
And if it’s not too late, Good Morning everybody.
“US vice president Kamala Harris will attend the international Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland this weekend, where she will meet with Volodymyr Zelensky and address world leaders.
Ms Harris, who will spend less than 24 hours at the gathering in Lucerne, will be standing in for president Joe Biden at the event. The president will be just ending his participation at the G7 summit in Italy and returning to the United States to attend a fundraiser for his re-election campaign in Los Angeles.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/15/ukraine-russia-war-latest-live-updates/
There are quite a few more placards out and about - I've now perhaps seen around ~50-60 in toto, which are probably 30-40 Ashfield Independent, ~10 Reform and 6-7 Labour. Tories, LD, Green are invisible.
Ashfield Independents have a stronger ground game, as they have 42 from 45 Councillors approx, and I guess they have been recruiting at eg surgeries or casework visits for some time. AI are being more strategic in targeting through roads in eg 1960s or 1990s LTNs. On one main road I counted about 10 in half a mile.
I have yet to see their "4000 placards going out" claim by their leaflet distribution man, which would be 1 in 10 houses or so across the constituency.
Lee Anderson's are noticeably in areas where he had a personal vote as a Councillor, and in a couple of particular locations where I know he has unfinished casework. He has been asking for placard planters via social media.
On a tiny sample Labour seem to be in slightly more affluent areas, and trad terraced houses.
On a separate note:
1 - Lee Anderson celebrates being endorsed by the leader of rump UKIP:
https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1801629442827075732
2 - And I ran into his video, which is crisp and clear - but most definitely populist:
https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1794151646047383693
In return there can be a net transfer of money from the Post Office leadership to the jailed postmasters
There is a similar problem on the railways.
I still think Greens finally take second to Clive Lewis this year, if the (very very) silent 25% Tory Norwich South core don't start to disintegrate this time they never will and the Greens stand every chance of taking Norwich Council from an incumbent Labour administration next time
"In every single sphere of British influence, the upper echelons of power in 2013 are held overwhelmingly by the privately educated or the affluent middle class," he said.
"To me, from my background, I find that truly shocking."
He added: "I remember enough of my past to be outraged on behalf of the people abandoned when social mobility is lost... we need them to fly as high as their luck, their ability and their sheer hard graft can actually take them.
"And it is not going to happen magically."
I was once involved with a bit of work around a new design of episiotomy scissors. They were just better in every way, and reduced damage by tens of percent. Getting trusts to take them one by one was inefficient nonsense - it needed central command and control.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6pp5emm95do
What seems to be missing is that my wife and I rarely discuss politics as we did last night when she revealed she is very anti Davey, but we also are totally opposed to Farage and his declared aim to take over the conservative party
Our decision was made after quite a 'chat' and maybe our 60 years together helps us to come together and we are content with our decision
I knew it would cause controversy on here, and a degree of almost abuse, but then better I am honest in declaring our decision when maybe it would have been easier to stay silent
Interestingly I was in our local post office this morning which was unusually quiet and I commented on Alan Bates knighthood
The conversation went onto politics and she said that most everyone she speaks to are disillusion and angry with all the politicians and for all the promises and she opined that a lot of them are simply not going to vote
Now I know this may have betting implications and may well reflect the nation today, but she did not have a good word to say about anyone in public office
If you can find a quote in which he wants to scrap public schools, rather than increase grants and bursaries then good luck.
The different media environment in the US, with partisan ‘news’ channels, probably means that this won’t cut through in the same way as does in the UK. Fox News will run all day with it, but they’re preaching to the choir of conservatives who already dislike the guy.
On the substance of the summit, I think there’s a real opportunity for Ukraine in the coming months, with evidence of Russian air defences being short in both numbers and capability, and vulnerable to being taken out by small drones. If Ukraine can achieve air superiority, they have a real opportunity to gain significant ground over the summer.