Labour at 38% is a real surprise and the lib dems seem to be benefitting
If other polls have Labour sub 40% then there may well be panic in labour
I very much doubt it. It looks to me like the anti-Tory vote is just going to become ever more efficient. If this YouGov is the GE result the LibDems would almost certainly end up as the official opposition.
I think this is right.
My vote is in a three-way marginal and much as my political inclination is Labour, the fact is that the LibDem has the best chance of unseating the Conservative.
So the LibDem will get my vote.
Tactical voting could be a massive factor this time.
Yep - I am voting LibDem on 4th July because where I am it's the them or the Tory.
Labour at 38% is a real surprise and the lib dems seem to be benefitting
If other polls have Labour sub 40% then there may well be panic in labour
I very much doubt it. It looks to me like the anti-Tory vote is just going to become ever more efficient. If this YouGov is the GE result the LibDems would almost certainly end up as the official opposition.
Yeah, Labour seats are far more correlated with Conservative % than Labour % at current polling levels. And the Conservative seats more correlated with Reform %. Funny old game.
Happy to lay any of those at 50/1 except the balloon ride. He is never going to do anything dangerous.
And I would want to define fairly carefully what a buck and a bronco are.
Inspired by @Sandpit I'll have a tenner on jump out of plane (so long as liberally interpreted to include any parachute jump) versus your five hundred for ukranian charidee?
The anti-Tory party is back and it is more powerful, more informed and more motivated than it has ever been before. If the YouGov numbers are repeated elsewhere I will finally believe in Canada.
I'm pretty confident it exists. My son's girlfriend and her family live there.
Labour at 38% is a real surprise and the lib dems seem to be benefitting
If other polls have Labour sub 40% then there may well be panic in labour
If Labour are losing support to the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall then it makes no difference. It could be the most efficient landslide ever.
Movement between Lib Dems and Labour could very well be largely tactical now that it is becoming clearer who the main anti-Tory challenger is in most seats
On the other hand movement between the Tories and Reform is far more likely to be political than tactical.
Labour would be very happy with a 20% lead over the Tories on July 4th with the Lib Dems picking up another 15% .
My guess is that the Labour Lib-Dem split will be far more efficient under FPTP than the Tory-Reform split.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
I think you are slightly overdoing the hyperbole. I could link to the infamous Sion Simon piece who made similar claims and yet only a few years later the Tories got an 80 seat majority.
The reality is lots of people are very unhappy about the state of everything. However no politician is really been honest about all the challenges and that it isn't some quick fix. Taxes are going up, there isn't the money for the sort of spending on services during Blair's time in office. Poor growth, piss poor productivity and too many people economically inactive is ingrained in our economy, it will take lots of unpopular decisions to turn that around.
If the Tories are no longer the main opposition, they will get LibDem levels of coverage over the coming years. If YouGov is repeated elsewhere, that's what faces them.
I think the Tories have an advantage over the Lib Dems by the fact they have been the governing party for such a long time in modern history. They have major publications who will always give them coverage and they have people with money willing to back them.
The question will be is can they find somebody decent after the recent very poor leaders. If they keep going with the nutty policies then yes, they will become the Lib Dems of 2015-2020.
Labour at 38% is a real surprise and the lib dems seem to be benefitting
If other polls have Labour sub 40% then there may well be panic in labour
If Labour are losing support to the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall then it makes no difference. It could be the most efficient landslide ever.
I assume Labour are confident of winning blue wall seats as well as red and the competition between both could assist conservatives to come through the middle
It's telling, surely, that Labour down to 38% is attracting a lot more comment than the Tories on 18%. Shows how far the latter have fallen.
I mean, seriously, 18% for the incumbent governing party with all the advantages that gives them in a GE campaign? Hard to believe.
Yep.
There is an issue here with Labour’s share
But it ‘probably’ is tactical voting mainly. Why so? Because we now have the specific candidates in constituencies and a real, not hypothetical, VI question.
Not brushing aside the Labour share, but it’s the other three in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th which are really eye-catching.
Libs munching into Labour there. Tactical vote klaxon.
Perhaps. Or it's just an outlier. It would be nice to think that the tactical vote in the blue-yellow contests is getting it's act together - though, on the other hand, are there enough of those to account for this movement? The Liberal Democrats are starting from a low base, after all.
There is often a poll in the election that is a little bit interesting. Unless other polls start to pick up more fragmentation then should probably put this in the outlier category.
Indeed. 21 April 1997, 10 days before polling, ICM had Cons 37%, Lab 42%
Let’s see how things look over the next few days
Key point in the election is the Labour manifesto. If they land the launch then I’d expect them to consolidate in the low-mid 40s.
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
Not just on PB but more generally. Look at the (rather startling) Tory faithful's reaction to the idea that NI is a tax and can be cut without any connection to the state pension. BR is on a hiding to nothing calling it a tax in terms of a political message that is comprehensible to the ordinary punter, even if there are some merits to that analysis.
It's a tax, in practice, even if it's called insurance.
But it's not a tax *in practice*. You get money back after time t in relation to how much you pay in (roughly). To ordinary folk, that is an insurance or assurance scheme. If it looks like a duck, and is called a duck, then some pol claiming it's really a rat won't cut the ice as we saw with the Tory faithful reaction.
No you don't.
There is no relationship between what you pay and how much you get back.
There is no difference between the pension of someone who has 35 years of being on Universal Credit or other benefits, or to someone working part time minimum wage just over the threshold, or someone who earned a median salary for that time, or someone who earned six figures for 50 years not 35 years.
It's a tax, both de jure and de facto.
You can't cherry pick four examples out of hundreds of thousands which happen to come out the same and say therefore all examples come out the same. I will get x pounds a week in state pension but 1.03x if I make back dated NI contributions which, however, there is no compulsion on me to do. Taxes are not usually either voluntary, nor profitable to the taxpayer.
Things don't have to be either x or not-x. That's essentialism, and wrong.
They do all come out the same for everyone who is either on PAYE or benefits.
For those who are for out of the country or self-employed or similar it gets more complicated. But there's no linear relationship anywhere between payments and receipts.
Libs munching into Labour there. Tactical vote klaxon.
It's hugely tempting but often wrong to assume in this sort of poll that Labour down 3, LD up 4 is direct Labour to LD switch.
But there's no reason to assume that the movement means that. Labour could be losing support to RefUK, RefUK to Tory, and Tory to LD. Not saying that is what's happening, but it would produce the same numbers.
Also quite sceptical about interpretation until we get several polls. Could well be wholly illusory random fluctuation, or a relatively short-lived minor spasm based on what was, by any reasonable view, an effective Davey PPB.
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
Not just on PB but more generally. Look at the (rather startling) Tory faithful's reaction to the idea that NI is a tax and can be cut without any connection to the state pension. BR is on a hiding to nothing calling it a tax in terms of a political message that is comprehensible to the ordinary punter, even if there are some merits to that analysis.
It's a tax, in practice, even if it's called insurance.
But it's not a tax *in practice*. You get money back after time t in relation to how much you pay in (roughly). To ordinary folk, that is an insurance or assurance scheme. If it looks like a duck, and is called a duck, then some pol claiming it's really a rat won't cut the ice as we saw with the Tory faithful reaction.
No you don't.
There is no relationship between what you pay and how much you get back.
There is no difference between the pension of someone who has 35 years of being on Universal Credit or other benefits, or to someone working part time minimum wage just over the threshold, or someone who earned a median salary for that time, or someone who earned six figures for 50 years not 35 years.
It's a tax, both de jure and de facto.
There IS a relationship.
No pay, no get.
It may not be a linear function, but it certainly exists, and you're not doing your argument, let alone analysis, pretending otherwise in yoiur usual absolutist manner.
Interesting that Baxtering the YouGov poll gives 5 Reform. 3 of them look sensible, Clacton, Ashfield, Boston & Skegness, 1 seems plausible Wellingborough & Rushden and the 5th is Rochdale?!?
Labour at 38% is a real surprise and the lib dems seem to be benefitting
If other polls have Labour sub 40% then there may well be panic in labour
I very much doubt it. It looks to me like the anti-Tory vote is just going to become ever more efficient. If this YouGov is the GE result the LibDems would almost certainly end up as the official opposition.
Yes. I think, despite the drop in the Labour percentage, this is pretty much the dream scenario for Labour.
Wow. Labour dips under 40 and the others all jostling for 2nd. Incredible SCENES
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
There is often a poll in the election that is a little bit interesting. Unless other polls start to pick up more fragmentation then should probably put this in the outlier category.
Indeed. 21 April 1997, 10 days before polling, ICM had Cons 37%, Lab 42%
Let’s see how things look over the next few days
Key point in the election is the Labour manifesto. If they land the launch then I’d expect them to consolidate in the low-mid 40s.
It will be interesting to see what the markets do.
A Labour win must have been priced in 6 months ago but wealth taxes, capital gains taxes or some sort of transaction tax might cause trouble.
The anti-Tory party is back and it is more powerful, more informed and more motivated than it has ever been before. If the YouGov numbers are repeated elsewhere I will finally believe in Canada.
I'm pretty confident it exists. My son's girlfriend and her family live there.
One thing to think about with the demise of the Tory vote is looking at the last 'wave' election (ie 2015 in Scotland) is that labour lost 40 seats but only lost 30% of their votes.
in 2010 Labour 1,035,528 votes in total, SNP 491,386 votes, Scotland total of 2,465,780 in 2015 Labour 707,147 votes in total, SNP 1,454,436 votes, Scotland total of 2,910,465
if the Cons are going to lose over 50% of their votes, which a majority of polls are now saying, it could be equally as catastrophic.
At first glance it seems stupid because of their opposing stances on Brexit - but how much is that the priority for voters in 2024?
The Lib Dems aren't openly super pro-EU anymore. If they just appear to be the 'competent, sensible' party, with all these policies on the NHS and Social Care and the lovely videos of Ed Davey being a carer - they could attract a large number of anti-Tory voters who are put off by Labour - even amongst Leave voters.
Interesting that Baxtering the YouGov poll gives 5 Reform. 3 of them look sensible, Clacton, Ashfield, Boston & Skegness, 1 seems plausible Wellingborough & Rushden and the 5th is Rochdale?!?
Does not show Rochdale for me only get 4. have seen that bug before though.
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
Not just on PB but more generally. Look at the (rather startling) Tory faithful's reaction to the idea that NI is a tax and can be cut without any connection to the state pension. BR is on a hiding to nothing calling it a tax in terms of a political message that is comprehensible to the ordinary punter, even if there are some merits to that analysis.
It's a tax, in practice, even if it's called insurance.
But it's not a tax *in practice*. You get money back after time t in relation to how much you pay in (roughly). To ordinary folk, that is an insurance or assurance scheme. If it looks like a duck, and is called a duck, then some pol claiming it's really a rat won't cut the ice as we saw with the Tory faithful reaction.
No you don't.
There is no relationship between what you pay and how much you get back.
There is no difference between the pension of someone who has 35 years of being on Universal Credit or other benefits, or to someone working part time minimum wage just over the threshold, or someone who earned a median salary for that time, or someone who earned six figures for 50 years not 35 years.
It's a tax, both de jure and de facto.
There IS a relationship.
No pay, no get.
It may not be a linear function, but it certainly exists, and you're not doing your argument, let alone analysis, pretending otherwise in yoiur usual absolutist manner.
Wrong.
You can get credits without ever paying a penny.
This was always the argument around tax credits. Those in favour said it allows to redistribute more than if you just didn't tax those people as much in the first place. Obviously the problem is there is significant admin cost (and fraud) of the government taking tax, people filling in forms and then returning money in form of a "credit".
I don't think it is. For similar odds you can back Rory McIlroy to win the US Open this week.
Yep. Love to see it.
But Scottie. One recoils from 7/2 for a golf tournament but he merits it imo.
Too short for me. His putting was a bit ropey again in the final round of the Memorial last week.
I'm backing place only with bf this week. Bradley, Kim, Fox - and I also like Dunlap. (E.g. Fox at 7.6 is a very big price for him to finish in the top 20.)
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
At first glance it seems stupid because of their opposing stances on Brexit - but how much is that the priority for voters in 2024?
The Lib Dems aren't openly super pro-EU anymore. If they just appear to be the 'competent, sensible' party, with all these policies on the NHS and Social Care and the lovely videos of Ed Davey being a carer - they could attract a large number of anti-Tory voters who are put off by Labour - even amongst Leave voters.
Remember even when Lib Dems were openly most pro-EU stance / stop Brexit, and that is all they banged on about, they still got a proportion of pro-Brexit voters. We all used to joke about it on here.
Using Baxter's special soup on those figures, sans tactical voting, and for those that believe, we get -
LAB 468 LIB 74 CON 63 SNP 14 Reform 5 PlaidC 4 Green 2
With no unified anti-Labour vote, Starmer could still get a huge majority even if Labour drop to the low-30s. He'd have no mandate for major constitutional reforms.
I think a lot of people are getting over excited by one poll. More data required.
One thing is clear, the Tories are going to get absolutely smashed. No chance they get that bedrock ~30% that Tory / Labour always have got previous come what may. The campaign is only a negative for them and the manifesto is utter rubbish. I wouldn't want to be a Tory candidate trying to explain special tax cuts for landlords and one man band businesses to the general public.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
Wow. Labour dips under 40 and the others all jostling for 2nd. Incredible SCENES
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
I don't think there will be any nerves this evening. They are observing a drag down knock out fight for second place from 20 points ahead. That's more than a decent place to be coming from. Of course their manifesto could cock everything up, but until then this is one of the best polls for Labour we've seen for a while.
Interesting that Baxtering the YouGov poll gives 5 Reform. 3 of them look sensible, Clacton, Ashfield, Boston & Skegness, 1 seems plausible Wellingborough & Rushden and the 5th is Rochdale?!?
Does not show Rochdale for me only get 4. have seen that bug before though.
Yes it gives Rochdale and Hartlepool to the Tories too if they get within 10 or so. Data bug.
Bold actions to delivery a secure future for our country and for your family
2p off national insurance support self employed, triple tax plus (note – all cheap no doubt!), 30 hours free childcare, household system for child benefit
Pragmatic approach to net zero
Benefits of Brexit – further trade deals, speed up infrastructure, and unblocking 100k homes (note – where? You went full NIMBY!), cut red tape for business, create new fishing opportunities
National service – military or civic
100k apprenticeships
Ban use of mobiles in school (Note – one for the boomers)
2.5% defence GDP by 2030 (note – so never then)
Legal cap on migration
Stop the boats
Rewrite asylum treaties (note – sounds simple!)
Increase NHS spending above inflation.
Biological sex definition in equality act
1.6 million homes ‘in the right places (note – so it’s just bullshit)
8k police officers
Cut anti-social behaviour
36 billion in local roads, rail and buses
Our plan for a secure, dynamic, and growing economy
In 2010 economy was in tatters (note – they’re doing the blame the last government defence 14 years on!)
3rd highest growth in G7 since 2010, inflation lower than Europe.
Plan to reduce borrowing and debt, back business, cut taxes
Only because of our decisions to reduce deficit on eve of pandemic which allowed the assistance we spent then
No raise in corporation act, abolish main rate of NI
At first glance it seems stupid because of their opposing stances on Brexit - but how much is that the priority for voters in 2024?
The Lib Dems aren't openly super pro-EU anymore. If they just appear to be the 'competent, sensible' party, with all these policies on the NHS and Social Care and the lovely videos of Ed Davey being a carer - they could attract a large number of anti-Tory voters who are put off by Labour - even amongst Leave voters.
Yes.
I'm a firm believer that in 2015 there was a large direct swing from LD to UKIP.
Most voters are not obsessive.
Lib Dems and Reform both fish from the same pond of "none of the above" voters.
Did Ed not learn from Farage’s near-fatal efforts at doing crazy stunts around an election?
It’s true that the only thing worse than being talked about, is not being talked about - but if everyone’s calling you an idiot and you’re running the risk of getting yourself injured in the process…
But every stunt has a point. Sewage in the water - fall into a lake, Children's mental health - go down a slide Free school meals - bake a cake
Would anyone have noticed him making serious points standing in a suit behind a lectern?
I follow politics quite closely and I didn't know what the stunts were in aid of. Well the sewage one yes, but not the others.
There, you see! Even with the stunts, you did not get the message. Without the stunts, even less than that!
Wow. Labour dips under 40 and the others all jostling for 2nd. Incredible SCENES
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
I think the Labour manifesto launch on Thursday should probably give them the mini bounce they need.
But I do have time for the idea that the Lib Dems might surprise everyone...
At first glance it seems stupid because of their opposing stances on Brexit - but how much is that the priority for voters in 2024?
The Lib Dems aren't openly super pro-EU anymore. If they just appear to be the 'competent, sensible' party, with all these policies on the NHS and Social Care and the lovely videos of Ed Davey being a carer - they could attract a large number of anti-Tory voters who are put off by Labour - even amongst Leave voters.
Not a huge number I'd have thought. There's an extent to which RefUK and LD (and Green) are "none of the above" choices still, so there may be a bit of that.
But I don't think many people are under all that many illusions that RefUK are "none of the above" for people who want to bring back the birch, whereas Lib Dems are "none of the above" for those who want to bring back the bircher muesli.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
Bollocks. Labour could still get a stonking majority on 32%. It would dent their mandate to be sure but if they're on 32% and the others (CON, LD, REF) are on roughly 20% each that would still be a triple figure majority.
Wow. Labour dips under 40 and the others all jostling for 2nd. Incredible SCENES
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
Okay, let's play out a couple more shifts like this poll.
Labour down 6% to 32% Lib Dems up 8% to 23% Reform up 2% to 19% Conservatives down 2% to 16% Green up 2% to 10%
That would still be a Labour majority of Blair 2001 levels, Labour 412, Lib Dems 116, Conservatives 73, Reform 8, Green 3, SNP 14, PC 4, Oth 2 (Yakoob in Birmingham Ladywood and Corbyn in Islington North), NI 18. In that sort of situation there would have to be PR introduced because nearly 2/3rds of the seats on not even 1/3rd of the votes would be undefendable.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
At first glance it seems stupid because of their opposing stances on Brexit - but how much is that the priority for voters in 2024?
The Lib Dems aren't openly super pro-EU anymore. If they just appear to be the 'competent, sensible' party, with all these policies on the NHS and Social Care and the lovely videos of Ed Davey being a carer - they could attract a large number of anti-Tory voters who are put off by Labour - even amongst Leave voters.
Not a huge number I'd have thought. There's an extent to which RefUK and LD (and Green) are "none of the above" choices still, so there may be a bit of that.
But I don't think many people are under all that many illusions that RefUK are "none of the above" for people who want to bring back the birch, whereas Lib Dems are "none of the above" for those who want to bring back the bircher muesli.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
Bollocks. Labour could still get a stonking majority on 32%. It would dent their mandate to be sure but if they're on 32% and the others (CON, LD, REF) are on roughly 20% each that would still be a triple figure majority.
In theory yes, but with a result like that you can probably throw the prediction models out of the window because in practice the Lib Dems and Reform will be surging in different places.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
OTOH by then the Tories will be down to 8%
That might be good news, as by then, the centre right vote would be reunited around Reform in the high twenties.
Are Reform centre right? Or just populist nonsense? I am getting to the point when that might actually be a genuine question. Right now, of course, what they are doing is splitting the centre right vote in half and giving us 10 years of Labour government.
Interesting that Baxtering the YouGov poll gives 5 Reform. 3 of them look sensible, Clacton, Ashfield, Boston & Skegness, 1 seems plausible Wellingborough & Rushden and the 5th is Rochdale?!?
Does not show Rochdale for me only get 4. have seen that bug before though.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
Bollocks. Labour could still get a stonking majority on 32%. It would dent their mandate to be sure but if they're on 32% and the others (CON, LD, REF) are on roughly 20% each that would still be a triple figure majority.
Or a load of Tories shift to Reform who get 29 points. See? We just don’t know (my scenario is unlikely but then we all thought total Tory extinction was unlikely - yet here we are)
What seems certain is that 2024 is going to produce one of the most mindbending results in the history of British politics. Which, for geeks like us, is a banquet of psephological pleasures
The Lib Dem manifesto was absurd in that the aspirations did not come near to matching up with the additional taxes but it was successful in focusing on some things people actually care about, that is social care and the NHS.
Neither the Tories, with their ridiculous National Service nonsense, or Labour with, err, British Energy? have come close to achieving that yet.
It was entirely a random vox pop that I heard on R5 yesterday but it was a voter who was minded to vote Lib Dem because he considered that Labour were tending too much to the right, "especially on fiscal matters."
It does appear that he is not the only one to have noticed this.
It would be quite something if the Liberal Democrats managed to make real headway in the Home Counties by running to the *left* of Labour, but I guess it's possible.
If it happens then it'll be fascinating to see what the post-election research can reveal about their voter coalition. My supposition would be an alliance of younger émigrés from London looking for the best progressive choice in areas where Labour are weak, allied to Remain-leaning, soft centre-right conservatives who are allergic both to the Tories' hard right populist lurch and, from their POV, Labour's socialist baggage.
Sir Ed as Moderate Messiah, wobbling to glory on his paddleboard. Who'd-a-thunk-it, eh?
In Dublin's Fair City (aka Dear Dirty Dublin) Clare Daly has been eliminated in count 17. Her accumulated votes (first preferences + transfers to her) now being redistributed.
When transfers from previously-excluded PBP-S candidate were parceled out, Daly got more of them than anybody elses BUT ended up -1k behind Green, who is now just ahead of Labour.
Note that that Boylan the right-wing shock jock got fewer Daly transfers than any other remaining hopeful other than FFer Andrews, who remains at top of the heap, but about -8k shy of quota.
I have thought for a long while that Labour won't get 40% at the GE, 38% seems very realistic, but with the Torys at low 20s best, it won't matter a jot
Interesting that Baxtering the YouGov poll gives 5 Reform. 3 of them look sensible, Clacton, Ashfield, Boston & Skegness, 1 seems plausible Wellingborough & Rushden and the 5th is Rochdale?!?
Does not show Rochdale for me only get 4. have seen that bug before though.
Rotherham?
There is a baxter bug around Hartlepool and Rochdale. It's got to do with by elections I think and handling that and the transition back to GE, it throws up odd results for both (will often show for example 2 Tory gains and 200 losses, the gains being those 2)
One of my least favourite genres of pb comments is people that come on “politicalbetting.com” a site dedicated to obsessive scrutiny of every possible aspect of politics and polls and elections and asking “why are you all getting excited by a poll?”
There are plenty of sites out there for people who AREN’T unhealthy over-interested in politics. If that’s your bag, try one of them
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
Bollocks. Labour could still get a stonking majority on 32%. It would dent their mandate to be sure but if they're on 32% and the others (CON, LD, REF) are on roughly 20% each that would still be a triple figure majority.
Or a load of Tories shift to Reform who get 29 points. See? We just don’t know (my scenario is unlikely but then we all thought total Tory extinction was unlikely - yet here we are)
What seems certain is that 2024 is going to produce one of the most mindbending results in the history of British politics. Which, for geeks like us, is a banquet of psephological pleasures
You lost me at "a load of Tories shift to Reform who get 29 points". I can totally, totally, see LAB at 32%, I think it will be more like 40% but 32% is not outlandish. Reform on 29%, however, is just fantasy.
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.
In Dublin's Fair City (aka Dear Dirty Dublin) Clare Daly has been eliminated in count 17. Her accumulated votes (first preferences + transfers to her) now being redistributed.
When transfers from previously-excluded PBP-S candidate were parceled out, Daly got more of them than anybody elses BUT ended up -1k behind Green, who is now just ahead of Labour.
Note that that Boylan the right-wing shock jock got fewer Daly transfers than any other remaining hopeful other than FFer Andrews, who remains at top of the heap, but about -8k shy of quota.
What source are you using, I'm looking at the RTE page and they are still on Count 17.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
What do you think MOE is?
Losing 3 points is well within MOE.
No it’s not. As I understand it from the great OGH a shift of 3 is notable and not necessarily MOE, and certainly not “well within”
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
At first glance it seems stupid because of their opposing stances on Brexit - but how much is that the priority for voters in 2024?
The Lib Dems aren't openly super pro-EU anymore. If they just appear to be the 'competent, sensible' party, with all these policies on the NHS and Social Care and the lovely videos of Ed Davey being a carer - they could attract a large number of anti-Tory voters who are put off by Labour - even amongst Leave voters.
Remember even when Lib Dems were openly most pro-EU stance / stop Brexit, and that is all they banged on about, they still got a proportion of pro-Brexit voters. We all used to joke about it on here.
Very true.
And imagine if their 'return to EU single market' policy gets more cut through. Could see a bunch of Labour voters making the switch.
Have been trumpeting the Lib Dems in the 'Most Seats without Labour' market tons and I still think it's big value even at 4.3 - I've got bets on REFUK and the Lib Dems on this market and I'm likely to trade out of my REFUK units but retain the Lib Dem ones.
As said above though the Lib Dems at 15.0 to beat the Cons in Vote Share might also be worth a look. I do expect the Con vote to pick up but given the above factors, where the Lib Dems could really start to do well in certain places, I don't think it's a 15.0 shot - looks narrower to me.
In Dublin's Fair City (aka Dear Dirty Dublin) Clare Daly has been eliminated in count 17. Her accumulated votes (first preferences + transfers to her) now being redistributed.
When transfers from previously-excluded PBP-S candidate were parceled out, Daly got more of them than anybody elses BUT ended up -1k behind Green, who is now just ahead of Labour.
Note that that Boylan the right-wing shock jock got fewer Daly transfers than any other remaining hopeful other than FFer Andrews, who remains at top of the heap, but about -8k shy of quota.
Ulysses obsessives will be interested to know that Blazes Boylan has a new job, the nature of which is not especially surprising.
I have thought for a long while that Labour won't get 40% at the GE, 38% seems very realistic, but with the Torys at low 20s best, it won't matter a jot
It's not low 20s at best though, they've had 24s, 25, 26 with a variety of pollsters in the last 4 days and 28 last week. If they get towards 27, 28 then Labour on 38 would be an interesting situation. If YG and Redfield are right then yep, it's carnage time. I think 40 25/26 is about right and a big landslide but no ELE
One of my least favourite genres of pb comments is people that come on “politicalbetting.com” a site dedicated to obsessive scrutiny of every possible aspect of politics and polls and elections and asking “why are you all getting excited by a poll?”
There are plenty of sites out there for people who AREN’T unhealthy over-interested in politics. If that’s your bag, try one of them
Surely those who are interested AND intelligent wish to work out what is signal, and what is noise?
Otherwise they are no different from the sort of moron who leaps on every daft social media trend or rumour as if it's gospel.
Every time Fraser Nelson mentions that the top 1% contribute 28% of all income tax, it just serves as a reminder that the 1% are minted and the rest of the country isn't earning much at all.
The same with this stat. Something has gone horribly wrong when pensioners are the biggest contributors of incometax.
We have a crop of pensioners who put lots into pensions and as a result quite a few have high pension incomes in retirement.
Which is better than them all starving in heaps.
We also have a crop of pensioners on extremely generous gold plated defined benefit pensions that they did not contribute in full towards.
Pensions that were not funded at the time and instead set up on the basis that future workers would pay for the costs instead then they'd get future pensions afterwards, except then the ladder was removed and those pensions aren't available to today's workers.
So we have a triple whammy of needing to pay for pensions that were never costed at the time, not being eligible for those ourselves despite paying for them, AND having to pay higher taxes too.
I'm very sorry you haven't got a DB pension Barty but you do appreciate they were part of the package which some people chose to accept, others opted for different packages at different employers.
You have not paid a penny of my DB pension, unless you contributed to the profits of those companies I worked for, and then presumably you did so because you chose to.
They were a part of the package yes.
But they were never paid for at the time. The bill was passed on.
We're still paying today for DB schemes. Every taxpayer is.
Instead of NI being a higher rate of tax on employment, a higher rate of tax on DB pensions to reflect the way they were unfunded and still need paying for would make more sense.
Alternatively we could tax everyone the same.
But that's how finances work. If you have a mortgage you aren't setting aside a fund out of which to make future payments, you are relying on the prospect of future wages. People tend to start costing the NHS once they hit 50. Do you want to deny them treatment because nobody set aside a fund in 1974 to pay for their future ailments?
No.
I want today's well off pensioners who are in a privileged position to pay at least the same rate of tax as someone earning the same income via PAYE.
They already do you dumb assed clown
The sites thickest poster still doesn't understand that National Insurance is a tax.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.
One of my least favourite genres of pb comments is people that come on “politicalbetting.com” a site dedicated to obsessive scrutiny of every possible aspect of politics and polls and elections and asking “why are you all getting excited by a poll?”
There are plenty of sites out there for people who AREN’T unhealthy over-interested in politics. If that’s your bag, try one of them
Surely those who are interested AND intelligent wish to work out what is signal, and what is noise?
Otherwise they are no different from the sort of moron who leaps on every daft social media trend or rumour as if it's gospel.
Oh give over. It’s exciting. You want to ruin all the fun
PB having a spontaneous hysterectomy because of a single poll is a noble tradition
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
Bollocks. Labour could still get a stonking majority on 32%. It would dent their mandate to be sure but if they're on 32% and the others (CON, LD, REF) are on roughly 20% each that would still be a triple figure majority.
Or a load of Tories shift to Reform who get 29 points. See? We just don’t know (my scenario is unlikely but then we all thought total Tory extinction was unlikely - yet here we are)
What seems certain is that 2024 is going to produce one of the most mindbending results in the history of British politics. Which, for geeks like us, is a banquet of psephological pleasures
You lost me at "a load of Tories shift to Reform who get 29 points". I can totally, totally, see LAB at 32%, I think it will be more like 40% but 32% is not outlandish. Reform on 29%, however, is just fantasy.
In this mad election NOM remains a possibility, and I would settle for Labour 310, LDs 40 and let them get on with it and play nicely.
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.
At first glance it seems stupid because of their opposing stances on Brexit - but how much is that the priority for voters in 2024?
The Lib Dems aren't openly super pro-EU anymore. If they just appear to be the 'competent, sensible' party, with all these policies on the NHS and Social Care and the lovely videos of Ed Davey being a carer - they could attract a large number of anti-Tory voters who are put off by Labour - even amongst Leave voters.
Remember even when Lib Dems were openly most pro-EU stance / stop Brexit, and that is all they banged on about, they still got a proportion of pro-Brexit voters. We all used to joke about it on here.
Very true.
And imagine if their 'return to EU single market' policy gets more cut through. Could see a bunch of Labour voters making the switch.
Have been trumpeting the Lib Dems in the 'Most Seats without Labour' market tons and I still think it's big value even at 4.3 - I've got bets on REFUK and the Lib Dems on this market and I'm likely to trade out of my REFUK units but retain the Lib Dem ones.
As said above though the Lib Dems at 15.0 to beat the Cons in Vote Share might also be worth a look. I do expect the Con vote to pick up but given the above factors, where the Lib Dems could really start to do well in certain places, I don't think it's a 15.0 shot - looks narrower to me.
If there is a manifesto effect in play, I guess Refuk might yet spike a bit after tomorrow's launch. I can't see how they could sustain an upward trend much beyond this weekend, though!
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
OTOH by then the Tories will be down to 8%
That might be good news, as by then, the centre right vote would be reunited around Reform in the high twenties.
Are Reform centre right? Or just populist nonsense? I am getting to the point when that might actually be a genuine question. Right now, of course, what they are doing is splitting the centre right vote in half and giving us 10 years of Labour government.
I think they're mostly populist nonsense, but if they outpoll the Conservatives in this election, I expect you'd see droves of Conservative office holders switching to them. There would not be any point to the Conservative Party, any more,.
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
Not just on PB but more generally. Look at the (rather startling) Tory faithful's reaction to the idea that NI is a tax and can be cut without any connection to the state pension. BR is on a hiding to nothing calling it a tax in terms of a political message that is comprehensible to the ordinary punter, even if there are some merits to that analysis.
It's a tax, in practice, even if it's called insurance.
But it's not a tax *in practice*. You get money back after time t in relation to how much you pay in (roughly). To ordinary folk, that is an insurance or assurance scheme. If it looks like a duck, and is called a duck, then some pol claiming it's really a rat won't cut the ice as we saw with the Tory faithful reaction.
No you don't.
There is no relationship between what you pay and how much you get back.
There is no difference between the pension of someone who has 35 years of being on Universal Credit or other benefits, or to someone working part time minimum wage just over the threshold, or someone who earned a median salary for that time, or someone who earned six figures for 50 years not 35 years.
It's a tax, both de jure and de facto.
There IS a relationship.
No pay, no get.
It may not be a linear function, but it certainly exists, and you're not doing your argument, let alone analysis, pretending otherwise in yoiur usual absolutist manner.
The clown cannot even work out that people on benefits pay NOTHING and get full pension. Thick as two short planks and twice as stupid.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
What do you think MOE is?
Losing 3 points is well within MOE.
No it’s not. As I understand it from the great OGH a shift of 3 is notable and not necessarily MOE, and certainly not “well within”
You have misunderstood then as I am pretty sure OGH never said that as it isn't true.
LibDems seen to have got a manifesto bounce. Wonder if the Tories will get one too..?
Looking at the very helpful summary by @kle4 I would say...not.
Don't be too sure. Attention is a big factor. The Tories have been in the news today at least partially on their own terms. That's... one of their better days of this campaign. I can imagine a wee bump in the next few days when it filters through. I don't think these things last, though, so what difference it'll make by early July is probably not great.
Attention is useful when you have something to say. Like Ed and the story of his mum. Something people can relate to. Sunak really struggles to find anything we can relate to. Cutting NI, whilst still increasing taxes is a policy I actually support but it doesn't exactly grip your man in the street or the woman looking at her wage slip where her net income has gone down.
From @YouGov crosstabs, LD surge is coming from all over:
2019 Tory voters: 7% (+2) switching to LD 2019 Lab: 9% (+4) 2019 LD: 62% (+7) sticking with them - was 44% at the beginning of the campaign.
LDs 2nd place in 'rest of South' and 'London', ahead of Cons, behind Lab.
@Beyond_Topline Given more people voted Tory in 2019 than Labour, this suggests about the same total number of voters are switching to LDs from each party. 5:38 PM · Jun 11, 2024
@Beyond_Topline 6m FWIW, no drop in Con->Lab switching in this poll
That YG poll is the first to put Labour on below 40%. It was threatening to happen for a while with a few pollsters but never had. That'll give them a few jitters.
However, look under the surface and this is good news for Labour.
1. The "blocs" remain much less volatile. This one is LLG 61 vs RefCon 35. LLG is up 2 on the last poll and RefCon down 1. 61 vs 35 is the best LLG polling for quite some time. 2. Green ain't getting 8% on the day. That's around 5% for Labour to squeeze right there. And we now have the prospect of a Gaza ceasefire taking a lot of the heat out of foreign affairs. 3. Nor are Lib Dems getting 15%, probably. But if they do end up at 12-13% then the evidence is their vote will be very concentrated and efficient, which also benefits Labour. Tactical voting on steroids. Lots of Lib Dem lost deposits in the Red Wall, lots of Labour lost deposits in the stockbroker belt.
One of my least favourite genres of pb comments is people that come on “politicalbetting.com” a site dedicated to obsessive scrutiny of every possible aspect of politics and polls and elections and asking “why are you all getting excited by a poll?”
There are plenty of sites out there for people who AREN’T unhealthy over-interested in politics. If that’s your bag, try one of them
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
Not just on PB but more generally. Look at the (rather startling) Tory faithful's reaction to the idea that NI is a tax and can be cut without any connection to the state pension. BR is on a hiding to nothing calling it a tax in terms of a political message that is comprehensible to the ordinary punter, even if there are some merits to that analysis.
It's a tax, in practice, even if it's called insurance.
But it's not a tax *in practice*. You get money back after time t in relation to how much you pay in (roughly). To ordinary folk, that is an insurance or assurance scheme. If it looks like a duck, and is called a duck, then some pol claiming it's really a rat won't cut the ice as we saw with the Tory faithful reaction.
No you don't.
There is no relationship between what you pay and how much you get back.
There is no difference between the pension of someone who has 35 years of being on Universal Credit or other benefits, or to someone working part time minimum wage just over the threshold, or someone who earned a median salary for that time, or someone who earned six figures for 50 years not 35 years.
It's a tax, both de jure and de facto.
There IS a relationship.
No pay, no get.
It may not be a linear function, but it certainly exists, and you're not doing your argument, let alone analysis, pretending otherwise in yoiur usual absolutist manner.
The clown cannot even work out that people on benefits pay NOTHING and get full pension. Thick as two short planks and twice as stupid.
One of my least favourite genres of pb comments is people that come on “politicalbetting.com” a site dedicated to obsessive scrutiny of every possible aspect of politics and polls and elections and asking “why are you all getting excited by a poll?”
There are plenty of sites out there for people who AREN’T unhealthy over-interested in politics. If that’s your bag, try one of them
You the new bouncer
If he's the new Bouncer, who's the new Mrs Mangel?
Tory messaging is just so inconsistent at the moment. One minute, it is "vote LD , get Starmer", then it is "Starmer's going to win anyway", which means voting Tory rather than LD won't make a difference.
The anti-Tory party is back and it is more powerful, more informed and more motivated than it has ever been before. If the YouGov numbers are repeated elsewhere I will finally believe in Canada.
I'm pretty confident it exists. My son's girlfriend and her family live there.
Comments
On the other hand movement between the Tories and Reform is far more likely to be political than tactical.
Labour would be very happy with a 20% lead over the Tories on July 4th with the Lib Dems picking up another 15% .
My guess is that the Labour Lib-Dem split will be far more efficient under FPTP than the Tory-Reform split.
The question will be is can they find somebody decent after the recent very poor leaders. If they keep going with the nutty policies then yes, they will become the Lib Dems of 2015-2020.
There is an issue here with Labour’s share
But it ‘probably’ is tactical voting mainly. Why so? Because we now have the specific candidates in constituencies and a real, not hypothetical, VI question.
Not brushing aside the Labour share, but it’s the other three in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th which are really eye-catching.
This could be a fascinating election night.
For those who are for out of the country or self-employed or similar it gets more complicated. But there's no linear relationship anywhere between payments and receipts.
Labour would be concerned if they had dropped to 38% and the Tories had claimed back to 28% but not when they have dropped to 18%
But there's no reason to assume that the movement means that. Labour could be losing support to RefUK, RefUK to Tory, and Tory to LD. Not saying that is what's happening, but it would produce the same numbers.
Also quite sceptical about interpretation until we get several polls. Could well be wholly illusory random fluctuation, or a relatively short-lived minor spasm based on what was, by any reasonable view, an effective Davey PPB.
You can get credits without ever paying a penny.
But Scottie. One recoils from 7/2 for a golf tournament but he merits it imo.
Focaldata a few hours ago had LD on 9%.
The last umpteen polls have LD between 9% and 11% (except for one 12%).
LAB 468
LIB 74
CON 63
SNP 14
Reform 5
PlaidC 4
Green 2
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
A Labour win must have been priced in 6 months ago but wealth taxes, capital gains taxes or some sort of transaction tax might cause trouble.
I agree it looks out of kilter but it "may" be the start of a trend.
in 2010 Labour 1,035,528 votes in total, SNP 491,386 votes, Scotland total of 2,465,780
in 2015 Labour 707,147 votes in total, SNP 1,454,436 votes, Scotland total of 2,910,465
if the Cons are going to lose over 50% of their votes, which a majority of polls are now saying, it could be equally as catastrophic.
Could some Reform voters switch to the Lib Dems?
At first glance it seems stupid because of their opposing stances on Brexit - but how much is that the priority for voters in 2024?
The Lib Dems aren't openly super pro-EU anymore. If they just appear to be the 'competent, sensible' party, with all these policies on the NHS and Social Care and the lovely videos of Ed Davey being a carer - they could attract a large number of anti-Tory voters who are put off by Labour - even amongst Leave voters.
I'm backing place only with bf this week. Bradley, Kim, Fox - and I also like Dunlap. (E.g. Fox at 7.6 is a very big price for him to finish in the top 20.)
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
One thing is clear, the Tories are going to get absolutely smashed. No chance they get that bedrock ~30% that Tory / Labour always have got previous come what may. The campaign is only a negative for them and the manifesto is utter rubbish. I wouldn't want to be a Tory candidate trying to explain special tax cuts for landlords and one man band businesses to the general public.
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
- Clear Plan, Bold Action, Secure Future – a bit long for a slogan I feel, but the three part staging makes it relatively easy to remember
- No hyperlinking of chapters
- Virtually all chapters begin with ‘Our plan’ – call me crazy, but I think they are trying to give the impression they have a plan.
- Pictures of Leader – 0
- Comes with an 8 page ‘costings document’, which is a nice touch, though I’m in no position to judge whether it is nonsense or not.
Foreword- Open with Covid and Ukraine.
- Economy turning around and it is not an accident (note – good to know)
- Have to stick to plan
- Going after green levies
- Says taxes have been cut and pensioners protected
- Children are the best readers in the West (note – a weird detail to include, but ok)
- Choose lower immigration, lower taxes, protected pensions
Bold actions to delivery a secure future for our country and for your familyI'm a firm believer that in 2015 there was a large direct swing from LD to UKIP.
Most voters are not obsessive.
Lib Dems and Reform both fish from the same pond of "none of the above" voters.
But I do have time for the idea that the Lib Dems might surprise everyone...
But I don't think many people are under all that many illusions that RefUK are "none of the above" for people who want to bring back the birch, whereas Lib Dems are "none of the above" for those who want to bring back the bircher muesli.
He's either a wind-up merchant or stark raving bonkers. Which is it?
Labour down 6% to 32%
Lib Dems up 8% to 23%
Reform up 2% to 19%
Conservatives down 2% to 16%
Green up 2% to 10%
That would still be a Labour majority of Blair 2001 levels, Labour 412, Lib Dems 116, Conservatives 73, Reform 8, Green 3, SNP 14, PC 4, Oth 2 (Yakoob in Birmingham Ladywood and Corbyn in Islington North), NI 18. In that sort of situation there would have to be PR introduced because nearly 2/3rds of the seats on not even 1/3rd of the votes would be undefendable.
Losing 3 points is well within MOE.
What seems certain is that 2024 is going to produce one of the most mindbending results in the history of British politics. Which, for geeks like us, is a banquet of psephological pleasures
If it happens then it'll be fascinating to see what the post-election research can reveal about their voter coalition. My supposition would be an alliance of younger émigrés from London looking for the best progressive choice in areas where Labour are weak, allied to Remain-leaning, soft centre-right conservatives who are allergic both to the Tories' hard right populist lurch and, from their POV, Labour's socialist baggage.
Sir Ed as Moderate Messiah, wobbling to glory on his paddleboard. Who'd-a-thunk-it, eh?
When transfers from previously-excluded PBP-S candidate were parceled out, Daly got more of them than anybody elses BUT ended up -1k behind Green, who is now just ahead of Labour.
Note that that Boylan the right-wing shock jock got fewer Daly transfers than any other remaining hopeful other than FFer Andrews, who remains at top of the heap, but about -8k shy of quota.
There are plenty of sites out there for people who AREN’T unhealthy over-interested in politics. If that’s your bag, try one of them
https://twitter.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1800438770635833822
(Caveat: this is mostly before the Faragegasm, but there's not much of a trend. Some polls showing ups, some downs.)
And imagine if their 'return to EU single market' policy gets more cut through. Could see a bunch of Labour voters making the switch.
Have been trumpeting the Lib Dems in the 'Most Seats without Labour' market tons and I still think it's big value even at 4.3 - I've got bets on REFUK and the Lib Dems on this market and I'm likely to trade out of my REFUK units but retain the Lib Dem ones.
As said above though the Lib Dems at 15.0 to beat the Cons in Vote Share might also be worth a look. I do expect the Con vote to pick up but given the above factors, where the Lib Dems could really start to do well in certain places, I don't think it's a 15.0 shot - looks narrower to me.
I think 40 25/26 is about right and a big landslide but no ELE
Otherwise they are no different from the sort of moron who leaps on every daft social media trend or rumour as if it's gospel.
BARRY ANDREWS, FF + 953 = 67179
REGINA DOHERTY, FG + 1381 = 66529
LYNN BOYLAN, SF+ 5899 = 53248
NIALL BOYLAN, II + 1290 = 44932
AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN, LAB + 4508 =41911
CIARÁN CUFFE, GP + 2551 = 40393
CLARE DALY, I4C + 6464 = 39334 eliminated
correction previous post, the transfers alluded to were NOT from Daly but rather PBP-Ser Smith.
I have a tenner on NOM
PB having a spontaneous hysterectomy because of a single poll is a noble tradition
From @YouGov crosstabs, LD surge is coming from all over:
2019 Tory voters: 7% (+2) switching to LD
2019 Lab: 9% (+4)
2019 LD: 62% (+7) sticking with them - was 44% at the beginning of the campaign.
LDs 2nd place in 'rest of South' and 'London', ahead of Cons, behind Lab.
@Beyond_Topline
Given more people voted Tory in 2019 than Labour, this suggests about the same total number of voters are switching to LDs from each party.
5:38 PM · Jun 11, 2024
@Beyond_Topline
6m
FWIW, no drop in Con->Lab switching in this poll
However, look under the surface and this is good news for Labour.
1. The "blocs" remain much less volatile. This one is LLG 61 vs RefCon 35. LLG is up 2 on the last poll and RefCon down 1. 61 vs 35 is the best LLG polling for quite some time.
2. Green ain't getting 8% on the day. That's around 5% for Labour to squeeze right there. And we now have the prospect of a Gaza ceasefire taking a lot of the heat out of foreign affairs.
3. Nor are Lib Dems getting 15%, probably. But if they do end up at 12-13% then the evidence is their vote will be very concentrated and efficient, which also benefits Labour. Tactical voting on steroids. Lots of Lib Dem lost deposits in the Red Wall, lots of Labour lost deposits in the stockbroker belt.
One minute, it is "vote LD , get Starmer", then it is "Starmer's going to win anyway", which means voting Tory rather than LD won't make a difference.