Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.
I have a tenner on NOM
Absolutely agree. It's maybe a long shot, but long shots win all the time.
Put together the pool of people who are currently DK, Reform and Tory and you have a group many millions strong who could be swirling around; if (big if) in the national mind it coalesces into a sense of a two horse race where 'Stop Labour' is the first priority for them then NOM could happen. This is not over.
Conservative Manifesto 2024 Part 2 Our plan to cut taxes and protect pensions
Gave support through Covid. Once inflation under control will cut taxes
Cut NI to 6% by 2027
35% increase in national living wage since 2010
Cutting tax for pensioners
Further 6bn a year on tackling tax avoidance and evasion (note – both? Why not before now?)
Our plan to support families
30 free hours of childcare
Family hub in every local authority (think the LDs had basically the same idea)
Online safety act promoted
Ban mobile phones in schools
Raise child benefit threshold
Our plan to get more people into work and build a fairer welfare system
Growth in benefits unsustainable
Reform disability benefits
Moderate issues to mean tailored support, not signed off work – new fit note system
Accelerate rollout of universal credit (note – this still isn’t complete!?)
Sanctions for refusing to take up suitable jobs
Our plan to give young people the opportunities and skills they need
2 hours of PE every week, increase funding for competitive sport
Advanced british standard, building on A level and T level (note – I have no idea what a T Level is)
Legislation for register of children not in school.
Schools must share materials on sex education – age limits on what kids can be taught
Expand ‘strong’ academy trusts
National service -young people will be given a choice to do x or y (note – but not a choice not to do it)
15 new schools for children with SEND
Close university courses with worst outcomes – excessive drop out rates or laeve students worse off (note – how to judge that? 10 years later?
Our plan to secure our nation from global uncertainty
2.5% on defence in 2030
Support trident
Reduced Chinese influence
‘chased dirty money out of the uk’ (note – this is oddly emotive and nonspecific)
Talking up AUKUS
Defend against Iran and Houti
Veterans pledge – minister in Cabinet, 10m office of veteran affairs, visa fee waiver for commonwealth personnel, cut cost of veterans railcard, enshrine veterans rights in law
Ensure veterans id are valid in elections
New procurement model (note – that will solve it after all this time!)
Return to 0.7% for international development when fiscal circumstances allow
Statutory footing for envoy for freedom of belief etc
Lot more detail on working with partners than LD manifesto
Minister for british citizens oversea (note – classic ‘create a new role’ fluff)
LibDems seen to have got a manifesto bounce. Wonder if the Tories will get one too..?
Looking at the very helpful summary by @kle4 I would say...not.
Don't be too sure. Attention is a big factor. The Tories have been in the news today at least partially on their own terms. That's... one of their better days of this campaign. I can imagine a wee bump in the next few days when it filters through. I don't think these things last, though, so what difference it'll make by early July is probably not great.
Attention is useful when you have something to say. Like Ed and the story of his mum. Something people can relate to. Sunak really struggles to find anything we can relate to. Cutting NI, whilst still increasing taxes is a policy I actually support but it doesn't exactly grip your man in the street or the woman looking at her wage slip where her net income has gone down.
Have to think Rishi Sunak would be doing better on the campaign trail today IF he'd worked as a bus driver back in the day, like another Tory prime minister (no, NOT Maggie Thatcher).
The anti-Tory party is back and it is more powerful, more informed and more motivated than it has ever been before. If the YouGov numbers are repeated elsewhere I will finally believe in Canada.
I'm pretty confident it exists. My son's girlfriend and her family live there.
Unlike Australia, which is obviously ficticious.
Well, obviously. How on earth could people live upside down all the time? Its right up there with spaghetti trees.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.
I have a tenner on NOM
Absolutely agree. It's maybe a long shot, but long shots win all the time.
Put together the pool of people who are currently DK, Reform and Tory and you have a group many millions strong who could be swirling around; if (big if) in the national mind it coalesces into a sense of a two horse race where 'Stop Labour' is the first priority for them then NOM could happen. This is not over.
LLG was UP 2% in this poll. That's a group many many millions strong swirling around.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.
The anti-Tory party is back and it is more powerful, more informed and more motivated than it has ever been before. If the YouGov numbers are repeated elsewhere I will finally believe in Canada.
I'm pretty confident it exists. My son's girlfriend and her family live there.
Unlike Australia, which is obviously ficticious.
Well, obviously. How on earth could people live upside down all the time? Its right up there with spaghetti trees.
It’s the platypus nonsense that really does it for me. The egg laying mammal with a ducks beak and poisonous thumbs.
@lewis_goodall Historians and political scientists will argue for a long time about whether the realignment was real and could have been sustained or whether its reversal was contingent on the Conservatives’ managing to blow it all up, in the most spectacular way possible, thereby throwing away the political opportunity of a generation.
The anti-Tory party is back and it is more powerful, more informed and more motivated than it has ever been before. If the YouGov numbers are repeated elsewhere I will finally believe in Canada.
I'm pretty confident it exists. My son's girlfriend and her family live there.
Unlike Australia, which is obviously ficticious.
It’s the outrageous wildlife that shows the lie. Like anyone would live in a place where spiders are lethal?!
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
What do you think MOE is?
Losing 3 points is well within MOE.
No it’s not. As I understand it from the great OGH a shift of 3 is notable and not necessarily MOE, and certainly not “well within”
You have misunderstood then as I am pretty sure OGH never said that as it isn't true.
I think the way it works is that each poll reading has a MOE of 3, so the MOE of the changes is about 4.5. (There's a moderate chance that the lass reading was too high and this one is too low. Or some of the change is real and some is MOE.)
The sub-samples - I know, usual health warning applies - in that YouGov are quite something. The Conservatives are fifth, behind the Greens as well as Reform, with voters under 50, and joint second with Reform (and some distance adrift of Labour) in the 50-64 bracket. They only lead amongst the over-65s, but even that cohort is now heavily split, with only 33% preferring Con.
Labour are coasting to a landslide with numbers like these. The Conservatives need the Reform vote to collapse like wet cardboard and swing heavily back to them to avoid a record defeat.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.
The anti-Tory party is back and it is more powerful, more informed and more motivated than it has ever been before. If the YouGov numbers are repeated elsewhere I will finally believe in Canada.
I'm pretty confident it exists. My son's girlfriend and her family live there.
Unlike Australia, which is obviously ficticious.
It’s the outrageous wildlife that shows the lie. Like anyone would live in a place where spiders are lethal?!
I have thought for a long while that Labour won't get 40% at the GE, 38% seems very realistic, but with the Torys at low 20s best, it won't matter a jot
It's not low 20s at best though, they've had 24s, 25, 26 with a variety of pollsters in the last 4 days and 28 last week. If they get towards 27, 28 then Labour on 38 would be an interesting situation. If YG and Redfield are right then yep, it's carnage time. I think 40 25/26 is about right and a big landslide but no ELE
I'm not sure on the others, just don't see Labour breaking 40%
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.
I have a tenner on NOM
Absolutely agree. It's maybe a long shot, but long shots win all the time.
Put together the pool of people who are currently DK, Reform and Tory and you have a group many millions strong who could be swirling around; if (big if) in the national mind it coalesces into a sense of a two horse race where 'Stop Labour' is the first priority for them then NOM could happen. This is not over.
NOM is 14/1 - Lib Dem to beat CON vote share is also 14/1 - maybe better to go for the latter, even if I think it's a long shot, because you can still win that in all scenarios ranging from Labour small majority to Labour Landslide?
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.
I have a tenner on NOM
What odds?
Looks it up...
10.5
Have you missed my generous offer to take you up on one of those 50/1 for charidee, or was it a joke?
Imagine if Labour stays on 38 and Tories start eating up Reform.
Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.
I don't think the Conservatives will eat Reform. More specifically, they are running out of time to do so and the initial signs are the other way around.
Using Baxter's special soup on those figures, sans tactical voting, and for those that believe, we get -
LAB 468 LIB 74 CON 63 SNP 14 Reform 5 PlaidC 4 Green 2
With no unified anti-Labour vote, Starmer could still get a huge majority even if Labour drop to the low-30s. He'd have no mandate for major constitutional reforms.
Almost identical figures from Electoral Calculus:
LAB 471 LIB 73 CON 61 SNP 14 Reform 5 PlaidC 4 Green 2
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.
I have a tenner on NOM
What odds?
Looks it up...
10.5
Have you missed my generous offer to take you up on one of those 50/1 for charidee, or was it a joke?
One of my least favourite genres of pb comments is people that come on “politicalbetting.com” a site dedicated to obsessive scrutiny of every possible aspect of politics and polls and elections and asking “why are you all getting excited by a poll?”
There are plenty of sites out there for people who AREN’T unhealthy over-interested in politics. If that’s your bag, try one of them
Yes, but you are one person. I think we need a poll on the topic of the least favourite genre of PB comments, so we can minutely dissect the results and the subsamples...
Message that Labour have already won and you can be a bit more relaxed in your voting intention seems to be getting through, definite softening.
Still win an unbelievable landslide - but probably with fewer votes than his old boss and friend Jezza.
This poll might be a blessing in disguise for Labour, to be able to say "See, it's not a foregone conclusion, you need to come out and vote or the Tories will come back somehow"
Imagine if Labour stays on 38 and Tories start eating up Reform.
Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.
Can only happen if loads of grumpy Reform voters suddenly decide to back Sunak as lesser of two evils, rather than sticking to their guns, or sitting on their hands, or breaking for Labour in significant numbers.
I came into this expecting the Tory vote to firm up significantly, as the fact that voters now had to actually pick a Government rather than complain/emote came into view, but there's no sign of swing back so far - and that includes among the vital elderly vote.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.
I have a tenner on NOM
What odds?
Looks it up...
10.5
Have you missed my generous offer to take you up on one of those 50/1 for charidee, or was it a joke?
Yes sorry missed it
My tenner versus your five hundred says Davey does a parachute jump* this campaign? Both to be donated to Ukraine?
*Or push. Or ejection seat. As long as he takes off in an aircraft and doesn't land in it
Message that Labour have already won and you can be a bit more relaxed in your voting intention seems to be getting through, definite softening.
Still win an unbelievable landslide - but probably with fewer votes than his old boss and friend Jezza.
This poll might be a blessing in disguise for Labour, to be able to say "See, it's not a foregone conclusion, you need to come out and vote or the Tories will come back somehow"
Yep, danger of dipping below 450 seats, time for them to get serious.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
What do you think MOE is?
Losing 3 points is well within MOE.
No it’s not. As I understand it from the great OGH a shift of 3 is notable and not necessarily MOE, and certainly not “well within”
You have misunderstood then as I am pretty sure OGH never said that as it isn't true.
I think the way it works is that each poll reading has a MOE of 3, so the MOE of the changes is about 4.5. (There's a moderate chance that the lass reading was too high and this one is too low. Or some of the change is real and some is MOE.)
Moral: we need more poll data.
Exactly!
An error of +1 last time to an error of -2 last time is perfectly viable and well within margin of error.
Too many people misunderstand MOE and hear a MOE of 3 and then think a change of 3 is outside the MOE rather than well within it.
Imagine if Labour stays on 38 and Tories start eating up Reform.
Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.
Can only happen if loads of grumpy Reform voters suddenly decide to back Sunak as lesser of two evils, rather than sticking to their guns, or sitting on their hands, or breaking for Labour in significant numbers.
I came into this expecting the Tory vote to firm up significantly, as the fact that voters now had to actually pick a Government rather than complain/emote came into view, but there's no sign of swing back so far - and that includes among the vital elderly vote.
I would suggest the only mechanism is if something cuts through about Labour that they can be galvanised to want to STOP. Sufficiently galvanised they overlook Sunak.
Given Labour’s message discipline so far, that seems unlikely.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.
I have a tenner on NOM
What odds?
Looks it up...
10.5
Have you missed my generous offer to take you up on one of those 50/1 for charidee, or was it a joke?
Yes sorry missed it
My tenner versus your five hundred says Davey does a parachute jump* this campaign? Both to be donated to Ukraine?
*Or push. Or ejection seat. As long as he takes off in an aircraft and doesn't land in it
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.
I have a tenner on NOM
What odds?
Looks it up...
10.5
Have you missed my generous offer to take you up on one of those 50/1 for charidee, or was it a joke?
OK got you now.
Yes fine. Offer is now closed to other bets, have to limit my liability. Charity restrictions apply: human beneficiaries only, no rescuing traumatized Kyivan donkeys or supplying emotional support dogs to PTSD victims.
Imagine if Labour stays on 38 and Tories start eating up Reform.
Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.
Can only happen if loads of grumpy Reform voters suddenly decide to back Sunak as lesser of two evils, rather than sticking to their guns, or sitting on their hands, or breaking for Labour in significant numbers.
I came into this expecting the Tory vote to firm up significantly, as the fact that voters now had to actually pick a Government rather than complain/emote came into view, but there's no sign of swing back so far - and that includes among the vital elderly vote.
I would suggest the only mechanism is if something cuts through about Labour that they can be galvanised to want to STOP. Sufficiently galvanised they overlook Sunak.
Given Labour’s message discipline so far, that seems unlikely.
Also requires the Tories to have something to credibly offer. Unfortunately for them their policy offer does not tick the Reform voters box, and even if it did they have no prospect of challenging Labour, so whether you vote heart or head a vote for the Tories achieves nothing.
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.
Happy Davey days.
At Thorpe Park, no less 😂😂😂😂
The LibDems are definitely playing their joker on this one.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.
I have a tenner on NOM
What odds?
Looks it up...
10.5
Have you missed my generous offer to take you up on one of those 50/1 for charidee, or was it a joke?
Yes sorry missed it
My tenner versus your five hundred says Davey does a parachute jump* this campaign? Both to be donated to Ukraine?
*Or push. Or ejection seat. As long as he takes off in an aircraft and doesn't land in it
Glider to Normandy?
As long as he jumps out of the glider. If he rides it all the way down and storms pegasus bridge, then it's awesome but I lost.
People are still exceeding the daily photo allowance.
If this continues everybody's ability to post photos will be revoked.
It is your call.
So far, WilliamGlenn, Heathener, and KJH have exceeded their quota today.
I'm hearing in the tones of the teacher who told us that a small minority were spoiling it for the rest of us.
"Do you want us to just do Maths today, and not have a chance to enjoy the sunshine outside ? Because that's what'll happen."
There's an alternative.
I can add a script that automatically bans people if they exceed the daily quota.
Do it!
It’s not hard to remember - one photo a day. Its actually quite a good discipline and one I’ve stuck to throughout my PB career anyway
But seriously. You don’t need the grief as you recuperate from a nasty op - make it automatic. Good idea
And if a poster needs to offer visual proof of something (like my £10 given to the Ukrainian lady for @Sandpit) and you’ve used up your quota then simply link to an image hosting website like Imgur
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
In 2010 and 2017 the tories looked impregnable until they didn't. In 2010 especially people were saying "just MOE" without really noticing that the MOEs were all in the one direction. And Sunak is an arse, but by God so were Brown and Corbyn.
I have a tenner on NOM
What odds?
Looks it up...
10.5
Have you missed my generous offer to take you up on one of those 50/1 for charidee, or was it a joke?
OK got you now.
Yes fine. Offer is now closed to other bets, have to limit my liability. Charity restrictions apply: human beneficiaries only, no rescuing traumatized Kyivan donkeys or supplying emotional support dogs to PTSD victims.
Terrible news for Labour as the gap with the Tories is closed by 2 points.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
ANY poll which shows your party losing 3 points - ie outside the MOE - induces anxiety, if not panic, even if you are 298 points ahead. Why? Because it might be the start of a trend - and indeed this poll is just one of several which show a trend of Labour sliding
Its about 1-2 points a week so it’s hardly fast but (using this poll as a base) if Labour lose another 6 points in the 3 weeks to July 4 then, from being entirely dominant, they are on 32
And that says “hung Parliament”
One poll putting Labour on 38% won't induce concern within the party, but 2 or 3 probably would.
The Independent is reporting that Sunak is suggesting that if Labour wins they’ll charge the electoral rules to make if more likely for Labour to win. Pot calling kettle?
End of the day, while I expect Tories to get very worked up about Lab (-3), they should be far more worried about Reform (+1 - 1% behind), and LD (+4 - 3% behind).
Their two main competitors for votes are right behind them and they are half way down the FPTP seat precipice.
Lib Dem odds on the 'Most Seats Without Labour' market were 6.0 when the YouGov poll dropped. Now trading at around 3.6 - 3.85 - big change!
I need to trust my instincts more - I'm on at 13s but for a pittance. Thanks to the guidance of this place I'm on a 4/5 event winning run, should probably up my stakes!
As an aside just topped up on Reform 8-10% at 17s and 10-12% at 10s.
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.
Happy Davey days.
Ed Davey becomes the first person in history to ride a log flume while wearing a tie.
@SeaShantyIrish2 How would you see Green Party transfers going? mainly to FG and FF as they are more centrist than the Greens in Scotland or England & Wales?
Thing is, these are exactly the circumstances where Starmer should go all in and do the hard things, backed up by a manifesto commitment. Recalculate council tax. Sort social care. Reform the NHS. Reform the Lords.
But he won’t, because thoughts will already be turning to the second turn.
It’s the British disease. If not now, when? (All equally true of Boris in 2019 of course, especially since he had extra Covid cover for major structural reforms).
NOM 21 on BX. Almost worth another nibble at those odds.
Why is a Reform majority 220, and a LibDem majority 1000? Neither is likely, but LibDem pedigree surely makes them more likely? I suppose it is an exchange and just reflects those betting.
Imagine if Labour stays on 38 and Tories start eating up Reform.
Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.
Can only happen if loads of grumpy Reform voters suddenly decide to back Sunak as lesser of two evils, rather than sticking to their guns, or sitting on their hands, or breaking for Labour in significant numbers.
I came into this expecting the Tory vote to firm up significantly, as the fact that voters now had to actually pick a Government rather than complain/emote came into view, but there's no sign of swing back so far - and that includes among the vital elderly vote.
I would suggest the only mechanism is if something cuts through about Labour that they can be galvanised to want to STOP. Sufficiently galvanised they overlook Sunak.
Given Labour’s message discipline so far, that seems unlikely.
Yes. The Ming Vase Marathon reaches it's conclusion with the manifesto launch on Thursday, I think. If that goes according to plan then all Sir Keir has to do is get to polling day without being filmed either throwing a sack of live puppies into the Thames or anywhere with a conspicuous EU flag in the background, and he's Prime Minister. Though actually, given the popularity of the outgoing administration, he might well survive even those.
I am having visions now of Keir Starmer, wrapped in a huge EU flag, throwing a burning sack of live puppies into the Thames, whilst a chorus of trans women sing the Ode to Joy and the shadow cabinet march behind him, over a carpet made of Union Jacks and photos of the late Queen, whilst waving portraits of Marx and Stalin. That might - just - get us to a Hung Parliament.
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.
Happy Davey days.
Ed Davey becomes the first person in history to ride a log flume while wearing a tie.
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.
Happy Davey days.
Ed Davey becomes the first person in history to ride a log flume while wearing a tie.
While doing a Mr Bean impression.
Remember how Hague wearing a cap on the log flume was front page news.
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.
Happy Davey days.
Ed Davey becomes the first person in history to ride a log flume while wearing a tie.
[Carefully removed the image from the quote lest that falls foul of the new quota rule]
Ed Davey has done a great job. I’ve heard plenty of people referring positively to his attention-grabbing exploits.
Thing is, these are exactly the circumstances where Starmer should go all in and do the hard things, backed up by a manifesto commitment. Recalculate council tax. Sort social care. Reform the NHS. Reform the Lords.
But he won’t, because thoughts will already be turning to the second turn.
It’s the British disease. If not now, when? (All equally true of Boris in 2019 of course, especially since he had extra Covid cover for major structural reforms).
Yes he should 1000% do things like Council Tax reform for the good of the country, but the way the public would react to it in the manifesto would threaten a Labour Majority. Best to keep it under wraps.
Frankly if Labour get a massive majority in 2024 they need to just fix everything like that quickly, take the flak for a couple years, and hope that by 2028/9, their reforms are working so well that the country is happy with them.
Playing safe for 5 years will just lead to defeat in 2029.
Labour at 38% is a real surprise and the lib dems seem to be benefitting
If other polls have Labour sub 40% then there may well be panic in labour
I very much doubt it. It looks to me like the anti-Tory vote is just going to become ever more efficient. If this YouGov is the GE result the LibDems would almost certainly end up as the official opposition.
I think this is right.
My vote is in a three-way marginal and much as my political inclination is Labour, the fact is that the LibDem has the best chance of unseating the Conservative.
So the LibDem will get my vote.
Tactical voting could be a massive factor this time.
Yep - I am voting LibDem on 4th July because where I am it's the them or the Tory.
And me. But I’ve voted for the best chance of unseating a Tory ever since my first vote in 1987. SDP, SNP, Labour and LibDem have all had my x in that time.
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.
Happy Davey days.
Ed Davey becomes the first person in history to ride a log flume while wearing a tie.
While doing a Mr Bean impression.
Remember how Hague wearing a cap on the log flume was front page news.
Imagine if Labour stays on 38 and Tories start eating up Reform.
Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.
Can only happen if loads of grumpy Reform voters suddenly decide to back Sunak as lesser of two evils, rather than sticking to their guns, or sitting on their hands, or breaking for Labour in significant numbers.
I came into this expecting the Tory vote to firm up significantly, as the fact that voters now had to actually pick a Government rather than complain/emote came into view, but there's no sign of swing back so far - and that includes among the vital elderly vote.
I would suggest the only mechanism is if something cuts through about Labour that they can be galvanised to want to STOP. Sufficiently galvanised they overlook Sunak.
Given Labour’s message discipline so far, that seems unlikely.
Yes. The Ming Vase Marathon reaches it's conclusion with the manifesto launch on Thursday, I think. If that goes according to plan then all Sir Keir has to do is get to polling day without being filmed either throwing a sack of live puppies into the Thames or anywhere with a conspicuous EU flag in the background, and he's Prime Minister. Though actually, given the popularity of the outgoing administration, he might well survive even those.
I am having visions now of Keir Starmer, wrapped in a huge EU flag, throwing a burning sack of live puppies into the Thames, whilst a chorus of trans women sing the Ode to Joy and the shadow cabinet march behind him, over a carpet made of Union Jacks and photos of the late Queen, whilst waving portraits of Marx and Stalin. That might - just - get us to a Hung Parliament.
Labour staff, having read this post, are hurriedly cancelling the planned launch.
NOM 21 on BX. Almost worth another nibble at those odds.
Why is a Reform majority 220, and a LibDem majority 1000? Neither is likely, but LibDem pedigree surely makes them more likely? I suppose it is an exchange and just reflects those betting.
Lib Dem most seats is also 1000 which is a better bet than Lib Dem Majority. I actually think there's a tiny chance of that coming off if the Anti-Tory vote somehow very efficiently coalesces. Probably a 300/1 shot rather than 1000, haha.
Thinking of why the left wing is more likely to do tactical voting than the right seem willing to. Is it because the left are more willing to believe the opinion polls are correct and the right are more "That's what the polls are saying but everyone I know is Tory so the polls are rubbish"?
Labour at 38% is a real surprise and the lib dems seem to be benefitting
If other polls have Labour sub 40% then there may well be panic in labour
I very much doubt it. It looks to me like the anti-Tory vote is just going to become ever more efficient. If this YouGov is the GE result the LibDems would almost certainly end up as the official opposition.
I think this is right.
My vote is in a three-way marginal and much as my political inclination is Labour, the fact is that the LibDem has the best chance of unseating the Conservative.
So the LibDem will get my vote.
Tactical voting could be a massive factor this time.
Yep - I am voting LibDem on 4th July because where I am it's the them or the Tory.
And me. But I’ve voted for the best chance of unseating a Tory ever since my first vote in 1987. SDP, SNP, Labour and LibDem have all had my x in that time.
Out of interest, how many times were they your first choice as well?
@SeaShantyIrish2 How would you see Green Party transfers going? mainly to FG and FF as they are more centrist than the Greens in Scotland or England & Wales?
Reckon that IF the Green gets the wack, his transfers would tend to go more to left than to FF or FG. Dublin Greens are not exactly enamored with their national coalition partners.
Perhaps worth noting that, unlike in Cultchie-land beyond the Pale, Greens in the capital did NOT get clobbered in local elections for Dublin City Council, slipped some but held their own. Of course only part of Dublin Euro constituency, but just sayin.
ADDENDUM - should say that while I have nodding acquaintance with Irish politics, have NOT been following it closely recently, indeed barely at all.
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.
Happy Davey days.
Ed Davey becomes the first person in history to ride a log flume while wearing a tie.
Though also sports a dapper wetsuit on occasions.
Apparently his team don't tell him until the day what the stunt is.
Comments
Put together the pool of people who are currently DK, Reform and Tory and you have a group many millions strong who could be swirling around; if (big if) in the national mind it coalesces into a sense of a two horse race where 'Stop Labour' is the first priority for them then NOM could happen. This is not over.
Our plan to cut taxes and protect pensions
- Gave support through Covid. Once inflation under control will cut taxes
- Cut NI to 6% by 2027
- 35% increase in national living wage since 2010
- Cutting tax for pensioners
- Further 6bn a year on tackling tax avoidance and evasion (note – both? Why not before now?)
Our plan to support families- 30 free hours of childcare
- Family hub in every local authority (think the LDs had basically the same idea)
- Online safety act promoted
- Ban mobile phones in schools
- Raise child benefit threshold
Our plan to get more people into work and build a fairer welfare system- Growth in benefits unsustainable
- Reform disability benefits
- Moderate issues to mean tailored support, not signed off work – new fit note system
- Accelerate rollout of universal credit (note – this still isn’t complete!?)
- Sanctions for refusing to take up suitable jobs
Our plan to give young people the opportunities and skills they need- 2 hours of PE every week, increase funding for competitive sport
- Advanced british standard, building on A level and T level (note – I have no idea what a T Level is)
- Legislation for register of children not in school.
- Schools must share materials on sex education – age limits on what kids can be taught
- Expand ‘strong’ academy trusts
- National service -young people will be given a choice to do x or y (note – but not a choice not to do it)
- 15 new schools for children with SEND
- Close university courses with worst outcomes – excessive drop out rates or laeve students worse off (note – how to judge that? 10 years later?
-
Our plan to secure our nation from global uncertaintyAbout those odds on a balloon flight….?
Anyone got any odds on doing an Evel Knievel? I’ll vote LibDem if he gets over a double-decker.
Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.
Historians and political scientists will argue for a long time about whether the realignment was real and could have been sustained or whether its reversal was contingent on the Conservatives’ managing to blow it all up, in the most spectacular way possible, thereby throwing away the political opportunity of a generation.
If this continues everybody's ability to post photos will be revoked.
It is your call.
So far, WilliamGlenn, Heathener, and KJH have exceeded their quota today.
Moral: we need more poll data.
Labour are coasting to a landslide with numbers like these. The Conservatives need the Reform vote to collapse like wet cardboard and swing heavily back to them to avoid a record defeat.
10.5
"Do you want us to just do Maths today, and not have a chance to enjoy the sunshine outside ? Because that's what'll happen."
I can add a script that automatically bans people if they exceed the daily quota.
Still win an unbelievable landslide - but probably with fewer votes than his old boss and friend Jezza.
It was him, Sir.
LAB 471
LIB 73
CON 61
SNP 14
Reform 5
PlaidC 4
Green 2
38-39.99% - 6.4
36-37.99% - 16.0
34-35.99% - 38.0
32-33.99% - 90.0
30-31.99% - 95.0
Leon may like those last couple
I came into this expecting the Tory vote to firm up significantly, as the fact that voters now had to actually pick a Government rather than complain/emote came into view, but there's no sign of swing back so far - and that includes among the vital elderly vote.
*Or push. Or ejection seat. As long as he takes off in an aircraft and doesn't land in it
|_ _| |_( )___ ___ __ _ ___ _ _| |
| || __|// __| / _ \/ _` / __| | | | |
| || |_ \__ \ | __/ (_| \__ \ |_| |_|
|___|\__| |___/ \___|\__,_|___/\__, (_)
|___/
If you use a non=proportional font...
An error of +1 last time to an error of -2 last time is perfectly viable and well within margin of error.
Too many people misunderstand MOE and hear a MOE of 3 and then think a change of 3 is outside the MOE rather than well within it.
Given Labour’s message discipline so far, that seems unlikely.
I’m rather enjoying the polls this time. Farage and Davey have made this campaign interesting.
Yes fine. Offer is now closed to other bets, have to limit my liability. Charity restrictions apply: human beneficiaries only, no rescuing traumatized Kyivan donkeys or supplying emotional support dogs to PTSD victims.
It’s not hard to remember - one photo a day. Its actually quite a good discipline and one I’ve stuck to throughout my PB career anyway
But seriously. You don’t need the grief as you recuperate from a nasty op - make it automatic. Good idea
And if a poster needs to offer visual proof of something (like my £10 given to the Ukrainian lady for @Sandpit) and you’ve used up your quota then simply link to an image hosting website like Imgur
against Sir John Curtice, as @TheScreamingEagles said earlier.
Whereas if Davey gets fewer votes than Swinson (very possible) but more seats I’m not expecting Twitter pile-ons from the Swinsonians.
Pot calling kettle?
Their two main competitors for votes are right behind them and they are half way down the FPTP seat precipice.
And a reminder: actual voting begins next week.
It fits well with the ambition to end NI, but will annoy many traditional Tories like HYUFD who value the contributory principle.
I also just remembered, tomorrow the Sunak Brand ITV interview airs - and it's said to be very bad for him by journey that have seen it!
Although a "BBC exit poll" dies rather get my Finbarr Saunders going...
As an aside just topped up on Reform 8-10% at 17s and 10-12% at 10s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cs9M1m-dpgM
Our plan to control immigration and stop illegal immigration
- Illegal immigration in unfair. Only Tories have plan to stop the votes. Deterrence works. Reform asylum
- End students and care workers bringing dependents.
- Legal cap on migration – say set at level taking account of costs and benefits, but also promises it will fall each year. Vote on cap each year.
- Continue windrush compensation
Our plan to deliver better health and social care- Build or modernise 350 GP surgeries
- Build 50 more community diagonostic centres
- 92k more nurses and 28k more doctors than in 2023 (note – I don’t believe you)
- 2.5m more dental appointments
- ‘continue to deliver 40 new hospitals by 2030 (note – so you’ve not done it yet)
- Tobacco and vapes bill
- Cut waste and bureaucracy (note – what an innovation!)
- Prioritise women’s health. National strategy for maternity care
- Expand mental health support coverage
- New law for treatment and support for severe mental health needs
- Apologised over blood scandal
Our plan for safer streets and justice for victims of crime- 8k police office – new powers and tools to catch criminals, restore public trust
- Martyn’s law – better prepared for terrorist attacks
- Domestic abuse act
- 25 year sentence for domestic murders,
- Require offenders to attend hearings
- 4 new prisons (note – where?)
- Remove foreign offenders
- Invest in rehabilitation
- Independent public advocate
- Tougher sentences for knife crime
- Cut ‘Covid court backlog’
- Protest bans outside schools
- Ban climbing on war memorials (note – seems over the top)
- do not tolerate anti-muslim hatred or antisemitic hatred
Our plan for an affordable and pragmatic net zero transition- Annual licensing for oil and gas in North sea.
- Treble offshore wind capacity. Build carbon capture and storage. Approve small modular reactors. Gigawatt power plan in north wales.
- Secure future of steelmaking (note – how?)
- Lower green levies, and no new ones.
- Democratic consent for onshore wind (note – ie, prevent it)
- Maintain energy price cap
Our plan to build more houses in the right places (note – oh boy, you’ve lost me with the title already, we know what that is code for)But he won’t, because thoughts will already be turning to the second turn.
It’s the British disease. If not now, when? (All equally true of Boris in 2019 of course, especially since he had extra Covid cover for major structural reforms).
I am having visions now of Keir Starmer, wrapped in a huge EU flag, throwing a burning sack of live puppies into the Thames, whilst a chorus of trans women sing the Ode to Joy and the shadow cabinet march behind him, over a carpet made of Union Jacks and photos of the late Queen, whilst waving portraits of Marx and Stalin. That might - just - get us to a Hung Parliament.
Ed Davey has done a great job. I’ve heard plenty of people referring positively to his attention-grabbing exploits.
Frankly if Labour get a massive majority in 2024 they need to just fix everything like that quickly, take the flak for a couple years, and hope that by 2028/9, their reforms are working so well that the country is happy with them.
Playing safe for 5 years will just lead to defeat in 2029.
So he’s right on the money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEacFrHfcIU
Dublin Greens are not exactly enamored with their national coalition partners.
Perhaps worth noting that, unlike in Cultchie-land beyond the Pale, Greens in the capital did NOT get clobbered in local elections for Dublin City Council, slipped some but held their own. Of course only part of Dublin Euro constituency, but just sayin.
ADDENDUM - should say that while I have nodding acquaintance with Irish politics, have NOT been following it closely recently, indeed barely at all.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ratqB20diYE
Apparently his team don't tell him until the day what the stunt is.
But with more holiday snaps.