Iain Dale quote tweeting himself on a prediction from 5 weeks ago that Reform would achieve crossover…
…could he know something about YouGov?
That's odd because they haven't crossed over in any poll... yet. Maybe he has heard the numbers from YG (or another).
Well, the original account tweeted at him earlier today so maybe he's just patting himself on the back for saying "Farage returning = Reform Surge" - but the timing feels suspect.
Would we expect a surge on BF Exchange pre 5pm if Reform had crossover, from people in the know? I haven't seen it just yet - it's been continuing to trickle towards the Tories today as yesterday.
Accomodation for tonight. We appear to be here alone except for a young lady who greeted us. If you don't hear from me again I will probably be in a pie being sold in a local shop.
I’m sure it I will be fine but I’m getting late sixties Hammer vibes from this !
Russ Cook, a charity fundraiser – known as the Hardest Geezer – has said he is “buzzing to be back on the road again” as he announced he will be running to Germany to support England in their Euro 2024 campaign.
The 27-year-old will be setting off from Wembley Stadium on foot on Tuesday in a bid to reach the city of Gelsenkirchen in western Germany by Sunday – in time to see England take on their opening fixture against Serbia.
Iain Dale quote tweeting himself on a prediction from 5 weeks ago that Reform would achieve crossover…
…could he know something about YouGov?
That's odd because they haven't crossed over in any poll... yet. Maybe he has heard the numbers from YG (or another).
Well, the original account tweeted at him earlier today so maybe he's just patting himself on the back for saying "Farage returning = Reform Surge" - but the timing feels suspect.
Would we expect a surge on BF Exchange pre 5pm if Reform had crossover, from people in the know? I haven't seen it just yet - it's been continuing to trickle towards the Tories today as yesterday.
On the one hand, if Iain knows the numbers then it's common knowledge in journo/political land. On the other, an odd post if not
Impressive that Trump broke campaign finance laws (in a country where almost all campaign finance is allowed) and Hunter Biden broke gun ownership laws (in a country where almost anyone can own a gun)
I wonder what emotional impact this will have on Father Joe Biden. Hunter is clearly something of a a favoured yet prodigal son
Joe is already half senile could this push him over the edge?
More positively, is it possible he will drop out of the race for family reasons, and the democrats could find someone under 180 years old that isn’t Kamala?
Asking for the free world
It would definitely be a good out. I’m not sure he will though.
Sadly I agree. Biden is falling apart in front of our eyes (as is Trump) I wonder if either or both will make it to November
What this does do is it gives Trump a huge cudgel wherewith to smite the democrats “I was convicted on fraudulent political charges but the president’s son is an actual drug addict gun toting villain, do we want that family in the White House for another moment?”
It will be brutal and it could be effective
This is quite sad (McConnell has suffered similar issues), I can't see how he makes another four years.
I am sure if the inside story ever comes out will reveal how bad the situation really was. There is clearly something seriously wrong. Literally every time he is out in public for more than a few minutes he malfunctions.
Accomodation for tonight. We appear to be here alone except for a young lady who greeted us. If you don't hear from me again I will probably be in a pie being sold in a local shop.
I’m sure it I will be fine but I’m getting late sixties Hammer vibes from this !
One of the early Jonathan Creek episodes took place in a house that looks a lot like that. Many overnight guests were disappearing.
My advice would be to take a shower rather than a bath!
Fieldwork conducted 7–11 June 3,124 respondents (GB)
Focaldata latest
Labour continue to head towards 40% which I think it a likely score for them.
Starmer could get fewer votes than Corbyn in 2017 but still win an historic landslide.
SKSFPE
Is it just me or do these f*cking inane abbreviated sentences annoy others too?
Yes I literally have no idea what that meant and I can’t be bothered to check
Have you not been hanging on every word of Big John Owls whose catchphrase is "SKS Fans Please Explain" which I understood now to be commonly abbreviated "SKSFPE"?
Iain Dale quote tweeting himself on a prediction from 5 weeks ago that Reform would achieve crossover…
…could he know something about YouGov?
That's odd because they haven't crossed over in any poll... yet. Maybe he has heard the numbers from YG (or another).
Well, the original account tweeted at him earlier today so maybe he's just patting himself on the back for saying "Farage returning = Reform Surge" - but the timing feels suspect.
Would we expect a surge on BF Exchange pre 5pm if Reform had crossover, from people in the know? I haven't seen it just yet - it's been continuing to trickle towards the Tories today as yesterday.
On the one hand, if Iain knows the numbers then it's common knowledge in journo/political land. On the other, an odd post if not
Not seeing any other posts from journos with eyeball emojis and the like...
Accomodation for tonight. We appear to be here alone except for a young lady who greeted us. If you don't hear from me again I will probably be in a pie being sold in a local shop.
I’m sure it I will be fine but I’m getting late sixties Hammer vibes from this !
One of the early Jonathan Creek episodes took place in a house that looks a lot like that. Many overnight guests were disappearing.
My advice would be to take a shower rather than a bath!
Iain Dale quote tweeting himself on a prediction from 5 weeks ago that Reform would achieve crossover…
…could he know something about YouGov?
That's odd because they haven't crossed over in any poll... yet. Maybe he has heard the numbers from YG (or another).
Well, the original account tweeted at him earlier today so maybe he's just patting himself on the back for saying "Farage returning = Reform Surge" - but the timing feels suspect.
Would we expect a surge on BF Exchange pre 5pm if Reform had crossover, from people in the know? I haven't seen it just yet - it's been continuing to trickle towards the Tories today as yesterday.
On the one hand, if Iain knows the numbers then it's common knowledge in journo/political land. On the other, an odd post if not
Not seeing any other posts from journos with eyeball emojis and the like...
Accomodation for tonight. We appear to be here alone except for a young lady who greeted us. If you don't hear from me again I will probably be in a pie being sold in a local shop.
I’m sure it I will be fine but I’m getting late sixties Hammer vibes from this !
One of the early Jonathan Creek episodes took place in a house that looks a lot like that. Many overnight guests were disappearing.
My advice would be to take a shower rather than a bath!
Iain Dale quote tweeting himself on a prediction from 5 weeks ago that Reform would achieve crossover…
…could he know something about YouGov?
That's odd because they haven't crossed over in any poll... yet. Maybe he has heard the numbers from YG (or another).
Well, the original account tweeted at him earlier today so maybe he's just patting himself on the back for saying "Farage returning = Reform Surge" - but the timing feels suspect.
Would we expect a surge on BF Exchange pre 5pm if Reform had crossover, from people in the know? I haven't seen it just yet - it's been continuing to trickle towards the Tories today as yesterday.
On the one hand, if Iain knows the numbers then it's common knowledge in journo/political land. On the other, an odd post if not
Not seeing any other posts from journos with eyeball emojis and the like...
Oh well,8 and a bit mins to wait lol
I suppose we ourselves could be headed for the Seventh Circle of Hell (Which is Reserved for the Poll Rampers) for quasi-ramping a poll by proxy.
Accomodation for tonight. We appear to be here alone except for a young lady who greeted us. If you don't hear from me again I will probably be in a pie being sold in a local shop.
Iain Dale quote tweeting himself on a prediction from 5 weeks ago that Reform would achieve crossover…
…could he know something about YouGov?
NOT beyond realm of reasonable possibility. On the other hand . . .
With respect to ID, have been reading just published and VERY timely (did he know something?) book "British General Election Campaigns 1830 - 2019". Each of the 50 elections (which is why it starts with 1830 instead of 1832) is subject of essays by individual authors (one covers both 1910 elections) including Iain Dale himself for 1959. Impressive group (including John Curtis and Peter Snow, and many others know to many PBers) and very interesting essays.
Naturally this means diversity in approach, perspective and style. You may well prefer some over others, but all are chock full of info and details. Personally wish some essays went into more detail about contests for individual seats, but most give adequate and interesting coverage of campaigns and candidates in key constituencies.
Reviewers have said they think "British General Election Campaigns" lacks an unifying theme. I disagree. My take is that the theme is there, indeed it's organic not contrived: the expansion of constitutional monarchy and popular (in one sense anyway) democracy over last two centuries of massive economic, social, technological changes and challenges across the UK. Which is evident - at least for me - in the succession of the individual essays written by informed, perceptive writers.
Should note that I have NOT read the book from cover-to-cover, rather still working on it, taking dips from time to time. What I've read has definitely been food for though re: the 2024 election, both in UK and USA. Reckon seasoned punters and hardened psephologists of PB will have even more, and more cogent, insights.
Accomodation for tonight. We appear to be here alone except for a young lady who greeted us. If you don't hear from me again I will probably be in a pie being sold in a local shop.
I’m sure it I will be fine but I’m getting late sixties Hammer vibes from this !
One of the early Jonathan Creek episodes took place in a house that looks a lot like that. Many overnight guests were disappearing.
My advice would be to take a shower rather than a bath!
😂😂😂😂😂
Now that’s a series I’ve not seen in a long time. Very good it was too.
Iain Dale quote tweeting himself on a prediction from 5 weeks ago that Reform would achieve crossover…
…could he know something about YouGov?
That's odd because they haven't crossed over in any poll... yet. Maybe he has heard the numbers from YG (or another).
Well, the original account tweeted at him earlier today so maybe he's just patting himself on the back for saying "Farage returning = Reform Surge" - but the timing feels suspect.
Would we expect a surge on BF Exchange pre 5pm if Reform had crossover, from people in the know? I haven't seen it just yet - it's been continuing to trickle towards the Tories today as yesterday.
On the one hand, if Iain knows the numbers then it's common knowledge in journo/political land. On the other, an odd post if not
Not seeing any other posts from journos with eyeball emojis and the like...
Oh well,8 and a bit mins to wait lol
I suppose we ourselves could be headed for the Seventh Circle of Hell (Which is Reserved for the Poll Rampers) for quasi-ramping a poll by proxy.
I do feel very queer all of a sudden! We live in weird polling times
For example for Islington North they haven't got Corbyn in their predictions.
For Chesham and Amersham they make it CON 36 LAB 26 LD 18 - meanwhile Baxter has it at LD 44 CON 36.5 LAB 9.8 - because they of course elected a Lib Dem in 2021 and so the 'non-Tory' candidate of choice has shifted.
Ah - I've just seen their model is only based off of historic voting data up to 2019 and doesn't take into account anything since then nor any tactical voting. Not sure if we can glean much from that considering all that's happened in the last 5 years.
Not at all. I live in Chesham and supporting the local LD campaign. The team here are quietly confident the seat will remain yellow for Sarah Green. Labour will be a very distant third. All the left wing leaning people will be tactically voting.
Iain Dale quote tweeting himself on a prediction from 5 weeks ago that Reform would achieve crossover…
…could he know something about YouGov?
That's odd because they haven't crossed over in any poll... yet. Maybe he has heard the numbers from YG (or another).
Well, the original account tweeted at him earlier today so maybe he's just patting himself on the back for saying "Farage returning = Reform Surge" - but the timing feels suspect.
Would we expect a surge on BF Exchange pre 5pm if Reform had crossover, from people in the know? I haven't seen it just yet - it's been continuing to trickle towards the Tories today as yesterday.
On the one hand, if Iain knows the numbers then it's common knowledge in journo/political land. On the other, an odd post if not
Not seeing any other posts from journos with eyeball emojis and the like...
Oh well,8 and a bit mins to wait lol
I suppose we ourselves could be headed for the Seventh Circle of Hell (Which is Reserved for the Poll Rampers) for quasi-ramping a poll by proxy.
I do feel very queer all of a sudden! We live in weird polling times
Hahaha, I just want to be able to lay/back accordingly! Alas, think will have to wait for 5pm now.
Iain Dale quote tweeting himself on a prediction from 5 weeks ago that Reform would achieve crossover…
…could he know something about YouGov?
That's odd because they haven't crossed over in any poll... yet. Maybe he has heard the numbers from YG (or another).
Well, the original account tweeted at him earlier today so maybe he's just patting himself on the back for saying "Farage returning = Reform Surge" - but the timing feels suspect.
Would we expect a surge on BF Exchange pre 5pm if Reform had crossover, from people in the know? I haven't seen it just yet - it's been continuing to trickle towards the Tories today as yesterday.
On the one hand, if Iain knows the numbers then it's common knowledge in journo/political land. On the other, an odd post if not
Not seeing any other posts from journos with eyeball emojis and the like...
Oh well,8 and a bit mins to wait lol
I suppose we ourselves could be headed for the Seventh Circle of Hell (Which is Reserved for the Poll Rampers) for quasi-ramping a poll by proxy.
I do feel very queer all of a sudden! We live in weird polling times
Hahaha, I just want to be able to lay/back accordingly! Alas, think will have to wait for 5pm now.
I don't see Biden doing actual porridge for this. First offence etc. Drugs is weird in the states though, everyone does them but nobody is allowed to say so. So you get the Prince Harry truthers wanting his visa revoked, and ridiculous stuff like John Prine having to claim that Illegal Smile is not about what it's about.
Fieldwork Mon/Tue (around Lib Dem manfiesto coverage)
Good point about the manifesto coverage. Perhaps each party will get a bump in turn, like a compressed version of what happens during conference season...
There is some serious divergence between the polls, I wonder if they will start to herd over the next week or so, or will continue to offer wildly different predictions right up to polling day?
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
Not just on PB but more generally. Look at the (rather startling) Tory faithful's reaction to the idea that NI is a tax and can be cut without any connection to the state pension. BR is on a hiding to nothing calling it a tax in terms of a political message that is comprehensible to the ordinary punter, even if there are some merits to that analysis.
It's a tax, in practice, even if it's called insurance.
But it's not a tax *in practice*. You get money back after time t in relation to how much you pay in (roughly). To ordinary folk, that is an insurance or assurance scheme. If it looks like a duck, and is called a duck, then some pol claiming it's really a rat won't cut the ice as we saw with the Tory faithful reaction.
No you don't.
There is no relationship between what you pay and how much you get back.
There is no difference between the pension of someone who has 35 years of being on Universal Credit or other benefits, or to someone working part time minimum wage just over the threshold, or someone who earned a median salary for that time, or someone who earned six figures for 50 years not 35 years.
Labour at 38% is a real surprise and the lib dems seem to be benefitting
If other polls have Labour sub 40% then there may well be panic in labour
I very much doubt it. It looks to me like the anti-Tory vote is just going to become ever more efficient. If this YouGov is the GE result the LibDems would almost certainly end up as the official opposition.
However, it’s more likely they will pick up a bit surely?
You keep thinking this week can't be as bad as last week, then it is. There is nothing in that manifesto that will have been running back. No IHT cut, no hang'em flog tough on crime, no getting out the ECHR. Tax cuts for landlords and one man band businesses isn't exactly going to excite many.
Labour at 38% is a real surprise and the lib dems seem to be benefitting
If other polls have Labour sub 40% then there may well be panic in labour
Why? What would be the basis of such "panic" if all their opponents are in the teens? People don't half break out some daft hyperbole on here. I tend to take the poll with the lowest LAB share as the most accurate and the people who will be panicking here is not the Labour Party.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
I assume on old methodology we have crossover? That change from YouGov might have saved us from "Reform in 2nd" headlines. The Conservative party's existence in the balance.
The Lib Dem manifesto was absurd in that the aspirations did not come near to matching up with the additional taxes but it was successful in focusing on some things people actually care about, that is social care and the NHS.
Neither the Tories, with their ridiculous National Service nonsense, or Labour with, err, British Energy? have come close to achieving that yet.
It was entirely a random vox pop that I heard on R5 yesterday but it was a voter who was minded to vote Lib Dem because he considered that Labour were tending too much to the right, "especially on fiscal matters."
It does appear that he is not the only one to have noticed this.
Labour at 38% is a real surprise and the lib dems seem to be benefitting
If other polls have Labour sub 40% then there may well be panic in labour
Why? What would be the basis of such "panic" if all their opponents are in the teens? People don't half break out some daft hyperbole on here. I tend to take the poll with the lowest LAB share as the most accurate and the people who will be panicking here is not the Labour Party.
History says taking lowest Lab, highest Tory is a better guess-estimate. Which is still terrible for the Tories.
Labour at 38% is a real surprise and the lib dems seem to be benefitting
If other polls have Labour sub 40% then there may well be panic in labour
I very much doubt it. It looks to me like the anti-Tory vote is just going to become ever more efficient. If this YouGov is the GE result the LibDems would almost certainly end up as the official opposition.
I think this is right.
My vote is in a three-way marginal and much as my political inclination is Labour, the fact is that the LibDem has the best chance of unseating the Conservative.
So the LibDem will get my vote.
Tactical voting could be a massive factor this time.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Do you want them to be replaced by something more populist?
Labour at 38% is a real surprise and the lib dems seem to be benefitting
If other polls have Labour sub 40% then there may well be panic in labour
I very much doubt it. It looks to me like the anti-Tory vote is just going to become ever more efficient. If this YouGov is the GE result the LibDems would almost certainly end up as the official opposition.
If the Lib Dems are polling at 15% and the Tories are polling at 18% then I have definitely seen crazier bets than 'LD to beat CON on vote share' currently 15.0 on the Exchange...
Cat meets pigeons - a very good poll for the LDs, their best for a very long time. It screams outlier but it may be a trend - we'll see.
Oddly enough, the Lab/LD/Green vs Con/Ref measure is hardly changed at 61-35 (in 2019 it was 47-48 so that's a 13.5% swing). The swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 15% on this poll.
It's the highest LD poll since a Redfield & Wilton in May 2023.
There is often a poll in the election that is a little bit interesting. Unless other polls start to pick up more fragmentation then should probably put this in the outlier category.
There is some serious divergence between the polls, I wonder if they will start to herd over the next week or so, or will continue to offer wildly different predictions right up to polling day?
Polls do tend to converge, partly due to different treatment of undecided respondents. As campaigns near their conclusion, this becomes less relevant as decisions get made.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
I think you are slightly overdoing the hyperbole. I could link to the infamous Sion Simon piece who made similar claims and yet only a few years later the Tories got an 80 seat majority.
The reality is lots of people are very unhappy about the state of everything. However no politician is really been honest about all the challenges and that it isn't some quick fix. Taxes are going up, there isn't the money for the sort of spending on services during Blair's time in office. Poor growth, piss poor productivity and too many people economically inactive is ingrained in our economy, it will take lots of unpopular decisions to turn that around. The public don't seem to like that.
Labour at 38% is a real surprise and the lib dems seem to be benefitting
If other polls have Labour sub 40% then there may well be panic in labour
If Labour are losing support to the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall then it makes no difference. It could be the most efficient landslide ever.
I assume Labour are confident of winning blue wall seats as well as red and the competition between both could assist conservatives to come through the middle
The anti-Tory party is back and it is more powerful, more informed and more motivated than it has ever been before. If the YouGov numbers are repeated elsewhere I will finally believe in Canada.
Labour vote excepted, obviously, this poll is reminding me of some in 2019, when there were three or four parties in the 15-25% area, creating a sense of flux .
It this is so, it could be a much more interesting or unpredictable election in terms of numbers, than it seemed to be just earlier today.
There is often a poll in the election that is a little bit interesting. Unless other polls start to pick up more fragmentation then should probably put this in the outlier category.
Indeed. 21 April 1997, 10 days before polling, ICM had Cons 37%, Lab 42%
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
I think you are slightly overdoing the hyperbole. I could link to the infamous Sion Simon piece who made similar claims and yet only a few years later the Tories got an 80 seat majority.
The reality is lots of people are very unhappy about the state of everything. However no politician is really been honest about all the challenges and that it isn't some quick fix. Taxes are going up, there isn't the money for the sort of spending on services during Blair's time in office. Poor growth, piss poor productivity and too many people economically inactive is ingrained in our economy, it will take lots of unpopular decisions to turn that around.
If the Tories are no longer the main opposition, they will get LibDem levels of coverage over the coming years. If YouGov is repeated elsewhere, that's what faces them.
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
Not just on PB but more generally. Look at the (rather startling) Tory faithful's reaction to the idea that NI is a tax and can be cut without any connection to the state pension. BR is on a hiding to nothing calling it a tax in terms of a political message that is comprehensible to the ordinary punter, even if there are some merits to that analysis.
It's a tax, in practice, even if it's called insurance.
But it's not a tax *in practice*. You get money back after time t in relation to how much you pay in (roughly). To ordinary folk, that is an insurance or assurance scheme. If it looks like a duck, and is called a duck, then some pol claiming it's really a rat won't cut the ice as we saw with the Tory faithful reaction.
No you don't.
There is no relationship between what you pay and how much you get back.
There is no difference between the pension of someone who has 35 years of being on Universal Credit or other benefits, or to someone working part time minimum wage just over the threshold, or someone who earned a median salary for that time, or someone who earned six figures for 50 years not 35 years.
It's a tax, both de jure and de facto.
There IS a relationship.
No pay, no get.
It may not be a linear function, but it certainly exists, and you're not doing your argument, let alone analysis, pretending otherwise in yoiur usual absolutist manner.
If the Labour slide continues, perhaps their majority could be threatened by the SNP and Lib Dems winning loads of seats. We'd be back to the 'coalition of chaos' scenario.
I'm sorry, but it's delusional to identify this Tory government as left-wing.
Yes, it can only look to be on the left if you're viewing it from a long long way to the right. And then of course it will.
It's a category error that comes from being "culturally Tory".
If you hold broadly Tory views (as I did), then "economically incompetent" is synonymous with "left-wing". So an economically incompetent Tory government *is* "left-wing" by definition.
The fact that their policies weren't e.g. redistributive (at least - not redistributive towards the poor) etc. etc. is irrelevant for the purposes of this definition.
It's a bit like calling anyone who is racist right wing.
But I'm objectively looking at left as increasing tax/spend and right as cutting tax/spend. On that objective metric this government is left on both metrics.
I don't think that's the fundamental definition of left or right wing.
Makes it hard to have a discussion if we can't agree on the meaning of words.
Not just on PB but more generally. Look at the (rather startling) Tory faithful's reaction to the idea that NI is a tax and can be cut without any connection to the state pension. BR is on a hiding to nothing calling it a tax in terms of a political message that is comprehensible to the ordinary punter, even if there are some merits to that analysis.
It's a tax, in practice, even if it's called insurance.
But it's not a tax *in practice*. You get money back after time t in relation to how much you pay in (roughly). To ordinary folk, that is an insurance or assurance scheme. If it looks like a duck, and is called a duck, then some pol claiming it's really a rat won't cut the ice as we saw with the Tory faithful reaction.
No you don't.
There is no relationship between what you pay and how much you get back.
There is no difference between the pension of someone who has 35 years of being on Universal Credit or other benefits, or to someone working part time minimum wage just over the threshold, or someone who earned a median salary for that time, or someone who earned six figures for 50 years not 35 years.
It's a tax, both de jure and de facto.
You can't cherry pick four examples out of hundreds of thousands which happen to come out the same and say therefore all examples come out the same. I will get x pounds a week in state pension but 1.03x if I make back dated NI contributions which, however, there is no compulsion on me to do. Taxes are not usually either voluntary, nor profitable to the taxpayer.
Things don't have to be either x or not-x. That's essentialism, and wrong.
What are we seeing is the fragmentation of the second party vote.
For decades, two parties (the old duopoly) hoovered up 80-95% of the vote. With the emergence of the Alliance, we became, briefly, a three party system in terms of votes if not seats with the Con-Lab falling back into the 60s. The 2015 implosion of the LDs seemed to have restored the duopoly and in 2017 the combined Conservative-Labour share was 82% and in 2019 75%.
Now we have three parties with 50% of the vote fighting for second place and under FPTP the leading party does absurdly well if they are still polling 35-40%.
IF this turns out to be the result on July 4th, the absurdity of FPTP will be evident to all but the most myopic.
Comments
Would we expect a surge on BF Exchange pre 5pm if Reform had crossover, from people in the know? I haven't seen it just yet - it's been continuing to trickle towards the Tories today as yesterday.
The 27-year-old will be setting off from Wembley Stadium on foot on Tuesday in a bid to reach the city of Gelsenkirchen in western Germany by Sunday – in time to see England take on their opening fixture against Serbia.
Impressive that Trump broke campaign finance laws (in a country where almost all campaign finance is allowed) and Hunter Biden broke gun ownership laws (in a country where almost anyone can own a gun)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/11/biden-appears-to-freeze-white-house-concert/
I am sure if the inside story ever comes out will reveal how bad the situation really was. There is clearly something seriously wrong. Literally every time he is out in public for more than a few minutes he malfunctions.
My advice would be to take a shower rather than a bath!
With respect to ID, have been reading just published and VERY timely (did he know something?) book "British General Election Campaigns 1830 - 2019". Each of the 50 elections (which is why it starts with 1830 instead of 1832) is subject of essays by individual authors (one covers both 1910 elections) including Iain Dale himself for 1959. Impressive group (including John Curtis and Peter Snow, and many others know to many PBers) and very interesting essays.
Naturally this means diversity in approach, perspective and style. You may well prefer some over others, but all are chock full of info and details. Personally wish some essays went into more detail about contests for individual seats, but most give adequate and interesting coverage of campaigns and candidates in key constituencies.
Reviewers have said they think "British General Election Campaigns" lacks an unifying theme. I disagree. My take is that the theme is there, indeed it's organic not contrived: the expansion of constitutional monarchy and popular (in one sense anyway) democracy over last two centuries of massive economic, social, technological changes and challenges across the UK. Which is evident - at least for me - in the succession of the individual essays written by informed, perceptive writers.
Should note that I have NOT read the book from cover-to-cover, rather still working on it, taking dips from time to time. What I've read has definitely been food for though re: the 2024 election, both in UK and USA. Reckon seasoned punters and hardened psephologists of PB will have even more, and more cogent, insights.
Check it out!
Now that’s a series I’ve not seen in a long time. Very good it was too.
We live in weird polling times
@SamCoatesSky
15s
Sky News / YouGov exclusive poll
** Tories joint lowest VI share in Parliament
** Reform just ONE point behind
** Lab down 3; LD up 4
LAB 38% (-3),
CON 18% (-1),
RefUK 17% (+1),
LDEM 15% (+4), "
Sky News / YouGov exclusive poll
** Tories joint lowest VI share in Parliament
** Reform just ONE point behind
** Lab down 3; LD up 4
LAB 38% (-3),
CON 18% (-1),
RefUK 17% (+1),
LDEM 15% (+4),
GRN 8% (+1)
Fieldwork Mon/Tue (around Lib Dem manfiesto coverage)
Lab 38
Con 18
Ref 17
LD 15!
📈📉NEW POLL
@YouGov
Labour lead at 20 points
🔴LAB: 38% (-3)
🔵CON: 18% (-1)
🟣REF: 17% (+1)
🟠LDEM: 15% (+4)
🟢GRN: 8% (+1)
Equal lowest Tory
Carnage
Always making things more interesting. like an old academic uncle in threadbare jacket, smoking a pipe.
https://www.acronymfinder.com/FPE.html
"Floating Point Exception" may be a possibility, but I'm not convinced.
If other polls have Labour sub 40% then there may well be panic in labour
"LAB: 58% (+20)
REF: 23% (-3)
CON: 10% (-19)
LDEM: 6% (+2)
GRN: 2% (+2)
@wethinkpolling
@TheEconomist, 30 May - 9 June"
https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/1800555586737820063
LAB 471
LIB 73
CON 61
REF 5
GREEN 2
SNP 14
PC 4
However, it’s more likely they will pick up a bit surely?
There is no relationship between what you pay and how much you get back.
There is no difference between the pension of someone who has 35 years of being on Universal Credit or other benefits, or to someone working part time minimum wage just over the threshold, or someone who earned a median salary for that time, or someone who earned six figures for 50 years not 35 years.
It's a tax, both de jure and de facto.
However this poll is horrendous for CON
Neither the Tories, with their ridiculous National Service nonsense, or Labour with, err, British Energy? have come close to achieving that yet.
It was entirely a random vox pop that I heard on R5 yesterday but it was a voter who was minded to vote Lib Dem because he considered that Labour were tending too much to the right, "especially on fiscal matters."
It does appear that he is not the only one to have noticed this.
My vote is in a three-way marginal and much as my political inclination is Labour, the fact is that the LibDem has the best chance of unseating the Conservative.
So the LibDem will get my vote.
Tactical voting could be a massive factor this time.
Mind you, I need it with the current mtm of my Trump short. Word for that is nasty.
Can we count you as a PR man, and LD voter now, Andy?
Cat meets pigeons - a very good poll for the LDs, their best for a very long time. It screams outlier but it may be a trend - we'll see.
Oddly enough, the Lab/LD/Green vs Con/Ref measure is hardly changed at 61-35 (in 2019 it was 47-48 so that's a 13.5% swing). The swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 15% on this poll.
It's the highest LD poll since a Redfield & Wilton in May 2023.
You should only bet on a NOM if you think the Conservative share will leap up. Otherwise you are throwing away money.
The reality is lots of people are very unhappy about the state of everything. However no politician is really been honest about all the challenges and that it isn't some quick fix. Taxes are going up, there isn't the money for the sort of spending on services during Blair's time in office. Poor growth, piss poor productivity and too many people economically inactive is ingrained in our economy, it will take lots of unpopular decisions to turn that around. The public don't seem to like that.
It this is so, it could be a much more interesting or unpredictable election in terms of numbers, than it seemed to be just earlier today.
Let’s see how things look over the next few days
I mean, seriously, 18% for the incumbent governing party with all the advantages that gives them in a GE campaign? Hard to believe.
No pay, no get.
It may not be a linear function, but it certainly exists, and you're not doing your argument, let alone analysis, pretending otherwise in yoiur usual absolutist manner.
At this rate the gap will be closed in 10 weeks
/sarcasm
Things don't have to be either x or not-x. That's essentialism, and wrong.
For decades, two parties (the old duopoly) hoovered up 80-95% of the vote. With the emergence of the Alliance, we became, briefly, a three party system in terms of votes if not seats with the Con-Lab falling back into the 60s. The 2015 implosion of the LDs seemed to have restored the duopoly and in 2017 the combined Conservative-Labour share was 82% and in 2019 75%.
Now we have three parties with 50% of the vote fighting for second place and under FPTP the leading party does absurdly well if they are still polling 35-40%.
IF this turns out to be the result on July 4th, the absurdity of FPTP will be evident to all but the most myopic.