Wow. Labour dips under 40 and the others all jostling for 2nd. Incredible SCENES
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
Thinking of why the left wing is more likely to do tactical voting than the right seem willing to. Is it because the left are more willing to believe the opinion polls are correct and the right are more "That's what the polls are saying but everyone I know is Tory so the polls are rubbish"?
Think it's because the left is all anti-tory whereas some of the right is pro-tory. Also the Lib Dems are much more established as a force than Reform are, and in a lot of constituencies, tactical voting for Labour / LD has been a thing for years.
Thinking of why the left wing is more likely to do tactical voting than the right seem willing to. Is it because the left are more willing to believe the opinion polls are correct and the right are more "That's what the polls are saying but everyone I know is Tory so the polls are rubbish"?
The Conservatives seem to struggle to make friends - they treated their LD coalition partners like a (I'll leave @TSE to add a suitable analogy probably involving either PornHub or dockside activities) and did the same to the DUP after 2017.
The depth of the contempt in which the governing Conservatives (NOT, I stress "local" Conservatives who seem for the most part to be able and willing to distance themsleves from the Westminster swarm) are held is there for all to see in most polls.
Wow. Labour dips under 40 and the others all jostling for 2nd. Incredible SCENES
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
It shows how soft the Labour lead really is.
A mile wide but an inch deep.
On the other hand, the Conservative support seems to be both an inch wide and deep , at the moment. Agreed that this isn't a good poll for Labour, though.
Imagine if Labour stays on 38 and Tories start eating up Reform.
Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.
Can only happen if loads of grumpy Reform voters suddenly decide to back Sunak as lesser of two evils, rather than sticking to their guns, or sitting on their hands, or breaking for Labour in significant numbers.
I came into this expecting the Tory vote to firm up significantly, as the fact that voters now had to actually pick a Government rather than complain/emote came into view, but there's no sign of swing back so far - and that includes among the vital elderly vote.
I would suggest the only mechanism is if something cuts through about Labour that they can be galvanised to want to STOP. Sufficiently galvanised they overlook Sunak.
Given Labour’s message discipline so far, that seems unlikely.
Yes. The Ming Vase Marathon reaches it's conclusion with the manifesto launch on Thursday, I think. If that goes according to plan then all Sir Keir has to do is get to polling day without being filmed either throwing a sack of live puppies into the Thames or anywhere with a conspicuous EU flag in the background, and he's Prime Minister. Though actually, given the popularity of the outgoing administration, he might well survive even those.
I am having visions now of Keir Starmer, wrapped in a huge EU flag, throwing a burning sack of live puppies into the Thames, whilst a chorus of trans women sing the Ode to Joy and the shadow cabinet march behind him, over a carpet made of Union Jacks and photos of the late Queen, whilst waving portraits of Marx and Stalin. That might - just - get us to a Hung Parliament.
He'd need Corbyn on that parade as well. Who'd object to the EU flag.
Thing is, these are exactly the circumstances where Starmer should go all in and do the hard things, backed up by a manifesto commitment. Recalculate council tax. Sort social care. Reform the NHS. Reform the Lords.
But he won’t, because thoughts will already be turning to the second turn.
It’s the British disease. If not now, when? (All equally true of Boris in 2019 of course, especially since he had extra Covid cover for major structural reforms).
Totally Agree ! Reduce immigration Build social housing fix student loans improve access to colleges fix the tax system by scrapping EU taxes like vat reform planning prevent foreign companies from asset stripping big uk companies improve competition replave one sided “trade agreements”
Excuse before was the EU but parties now need to capitalise on brexit to make Britain great again !
I guess the manifesto launch is the maximum points of danger for Starmer, to state the obvious. Not only will they get legitimate scrutiny as the presumed Government elect, but the media will fancy a narrative change.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Wow. Labour dips under 40 and the others all jostling for 2nd. Incredible SCENES
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
It shows how soft the Labour lead really is.
A mile wide but an inch deep.
On the other hand, the Conservative vote seems to be an inch wide and an inch deep, at the moment. Agreed this isn't a good poll for Labour, though.
It's a great poll for Labour, if it was -3 Lab, +4 Ref then that would be a worry, -3 Lab +4 could just Labour votes moving in some constituencies from a good 3rd place behind 1st Tory 2nd LD to a 4th place behind 1st LD, 2nd Con, 3rd Ref.
If somehow Ed Davey got to be Leader of the Opposition, he's going to have thin pickings to fill a Shadow Cabinet let alone the rest of a Shadow Frontbench.
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.
Happy Davey days.
At Thorpe Park, no less 😂😂😂😂
Who in the name of Holy Moses on Meth wears a suit to a theme park??
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Do you want them to be replaced by something more populist?
Far too many Labour folk getting high on their own supply and wanting to see a dream forevermore progressive coalition where there is none.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
We may well not like what we get, but we damn sure are certain we hate what we've got now.
Thinking of why the left wing is more likely to do tactical voting than the right seem willing to. Is it because the left are more willing to believe the opinion polls are correct and the right are more "That's what the polls are saying but everyone I know is Tory so the polls are rubbish"?
At the moment I'd say a big factor is that the Right have been in government for 14 years, and they've forgotten how bad it is to be in Opposition, with the contra being the case for the Left.
The other factor to consider is that a large chunk of Reform voters are genuinely off the deep end in terms of conspiracism and have a much more distinct set of beliefs, so a tactical vote is a bigger jump.
I guess the manifesto launch is the maximum points of danger for Starmer, to state the obvious. Not only will they get legitimate scrutiny as the presumed Government elect, but the media will fancy a narrative change.
I can almost guarantee some sections of the media will be running with 'Is that it?!'
If you told someone 10 years ago today that a party called 'Reform UK' were now surging in the polls, they might think it was a pro-union party seeking to reabsorb an Independent Scotland.
People are still exceeding the daily photo allowance.
If this continues everybody's ability to post photos will be revoked.
It is your call.
So far, WilliamGlenn, Heathener, and KJH have exceeded their quota today.
JACOBITE MANIFESTO
1. PBers who exceed their daily allowance of photos should be executed by force feeding them Lib Dem "Wining Here" posters.
Errr .... That's it.
Off- topic, I visited Blair Castle while on holiday in Perthshire/Angus last week. Learned a lot about the Jacobites. Including the factoid that Queen Anne was the last monarch to veto Parliament. A bill was passed to raise a militia in Scotland because of a possible Jacobite invasion. She veto-ed it on the grounds the militia might switch sides.
People are still exceeding the daily photo allowance.
If this continues everybody's ability to post photos will be revoked.
It is your call.
So far, WilliamGlenn, Heathener, and KJH have exceeded their quota today.
JACOBITE MANIFESTO
1. PBers who exceed their daily allowance of photos should be executed by force feeding them Lib Dem "Wining Here" posters.
Errr .... That's it.
That seems overly cruel.
Perhaps might be better to substitute something less cruel but even more unusual?
Such as violators being subjected to 24/7 broadcast readings from Lib Dem manifesto and Ed Davey's press releases as well as learned analysis of dodgy LibDem bar charts.
He's either a wind-up merchant or stark raving bonkers. Which is it?
He’s been on the Plato trajectory for quite a while.
But with more holiday snaps.
What happened to Plato?
Disappeared down a rabbit hole of conspiracy theory and MAGA type populism. Then disappeared off the site and I believe passed away although I honestly don’t know the circumstances.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
The next version of the Conservative party will be clear populist right, and as it will be more coherent than the current version it will be a bit more successful. But the age profile is horrible still and demographics are against them. They could win if Labour do badly, but probably won't.
I think the version after that in the mid 2030s is one that could be more appealing and successful, embracing some of the different conservative values of todays younger generations, who after all, study harder, eat healthier, drink less, smoke less, and care about the planet more than my generation or the ones above me do. Those sound like conservative instincts to me, and I can see a reborn very different Conservative party doing very well with todays youngsters and some of the floating voters by then when people will be tired with Labour. Sadly the populist right period first is necessary to eventually get rid of it.
38 + 18 must be one of the lowest ever combined Labour and Tory vote shares.
Labour could be down very low in the 20s inside, err, 20 months.
Those proclaiming a Greater Starmer Reich for at least 10-15 years are being idiots.
The big unknown is who benefits when Labour become deeply unpopular in government?
I can make a case for all of Lib Dems, Conservatives and Reform, even Greens to an extent, but quite a bit depends on how well each does on July 4th, and how they position themselves in the months that follow.
I wonder if it might be that, whle many here , including me, weren't over-excited by the LD manifesto, they're quietly building a perception of themselves as both the more explicitly caring, and more fun party. The look on the bright side and make the best of it party, making Labour look more defensive.
Social care + friendly Ed Davey = Positive messaging, less emotionally cautious than Labour.
To make a semi-serious point for a moment. The Lib Dems are campaigning in images and they are all fun, happy ones. The Conservatives are campaigning in words and text (which can be fact checked and disputed) and it's images are sad and depressing. Perhaps the Libs have chanced upon an image-based approach that is more robust to FUD than other approaches.
Happy Davey days.
At Thorpe Park, no less 😂😂😂😂
Who in the name of Holy Moses on Meth wears a suit to a theme park??
Wow. Labour dips under 40 and the others all jostling for 2nd. Incredible SCENES
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
It shows how soft the Labour lead really is.
A mile wide but an inch deep.
On the other hand, the Conservative support seems to be both an inch wide and deep , at the moment. Agreed that this isn't a good poll for Labour, though.
Does admitting defeat as the government early on in election campaign ever play well? They've been in denial about everything else for the last 10 years, why are they changing tack here?
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Do you want them to be replaced by something more populist?
Far too many Labour folk getting high on their own supply and wanting to see a dream forevermore progressive coalition where there is none.
If you told someone 10 years ago today that a party called 'Reform UK' were now surging in the polls, they might think it was a pro-union party seeking to reabsorb an Independent Scotland.
Wow. Labour dips under 40 and the others all jostling for 2nd. Incredible SCENES
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
I think Labour should be worried about this poll, but not because it puts us anywhere close to a Hung Parliament. They still have a 20-point lead.
They should be worried at what happens if they win 450+ seats on less than 40% of the vote. The democratic deficit will cause them no end of trouble.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
… todays younger generations, who after all, study harder, eat healthier, drink less, smoke less, and care about the planet more than my generation or the ones above me do…
Yeah, they are weirdos. We all need to work on them and get them to loosen up.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Do you want them to be replaced by something more populist?
Far too many Labour folk getting high on their own supply and wanting to see a dream forevermore progressive coalition where there is none.
I'm just going to lean on the enslaved genie hypothesis. A seemingly bang average politician is about to have the largest landslide in British history off the back of essentially no policies - he'll rub the lamp and the poor abused genie will find GDP growth (potentially via planning reform).
Overall impressions - a little bit of defending record, but not much, mostly talking about future plans. Nothing on local government at all, which at least means no guff on it. Nothing substantive on planning. Big pledges on tax and migration, but how much would be believed? Surprisingly brief on national service considering it was the big hail mary policy announcement.
Thinking of why the left wing is more likely to do tactical voting than the right seem willing to. Is it because the left are more willing to believe the opinion polls are correct and the right are more "That's what the polls are saying but everyone I know is Tory so the polls are rubbish"?
At the moment I'd say a big factor is that the Right have been in government for 14 years, and they've forgotten how bad it is to be in Opposition, with the contra being the case for the Left.
The other factor to consider is that a large chunk of Reform voters are genuinely off the deep end in terms of conspiracism and have a much more distinct set of beliefs, so a tactical vote is a bigger jump.
Oh, that is a good point, I've seen a large number of twitter comments of the "Make sure you take a pen to vote, don't use their erasable pencils" variety.
Labour will unleash mega pro eu policies in government as soon as the pain manifests and the hard policies have to be enacted (and there is no avoiding that)... to keep voters onside. I suspect that is the reason for the great silence.... ace in the hole.
Thinking of why the left wing is more likely to do tactical voting than the right seem willing to. Is it because the left are more willing to believe the opinion polls are correct and the right are more "That's what the polls are saying but everyone I know is Tory so the polls are rubbish"?
At the moment I'd say a big factor is that the Right have been in government for 14 years, and they've forgotten how bad it is to be in Opposition, with the contra being the case for the Left.
The other factor to consider is that a large chunk of Reform voters are genuinely off the deep end in terms of conspiracism and have a much more distinct set of beliefs, so a tactical vote is a bigger jump.
Oh, that is a good point, I've seen a large number of twitter comments of the "Make sure you take a pen to vote, don't use their erasable pencils" variety.
Of course on PB we all know this, we all take our own permanent markers.
People are still exceeding the daily photo allowance.
If this continues everybody's ability to post photos will be revoked.
It is your call.
So far, WilliamGlenn, Heathener, and KJH have exceeded their quota today.
JACOBITE MANIFESTO
1. PBers who exceed their daily allowance of photos should be executed by force feeding them Lib Dem "Wining Here" posters.
Errr .... That's it.
Winning in Harpenden M´Lord? I trust all well otherwise
The yellow peril certainly are ... ..... if on election night I see LibDem GAIN Harpenden & Berkhamsted flash on the screen, I fear the shock will see the end of me !!
Imagine if Labour stays on 38 and Tories start eating up Reform.
Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.
Can only happen if loads of grumpy Reform voters suddenly decide to back Sunak as lesser of two evils, rather than sticking to their guns, or sitting on their hands, or breaking for Labour in significant numbers.
I came into this expecting the Tory vote to firm up significantly, as the fact that voters now had to actually pick a Government rather than complain/emote came into view, but there's no sign of swing back so far - and that includes among the vital elderly vote.
I would suggest the only mechanism is if something cuts through about Labour that they can be galvanised to want to STOP. Sufficiently galvanised they overlook Sunak.
Given Labour’s message discipline so far, that seems unlikely.
Yes. The Ming Vase Marathon reaches it's conclusion with the manifesto launch on Thursday, I think. If that goes according to plan then all Sir Keir has to do is get to polling day without being filmed either throwing a sack of live puppies into the Thames or anywhere with a conspicuous EU flag in the background, and he's Prime Minister. Though actually, given the popularity of the outgoing administration, he might well survive even those.
I am having visions now of Keir Starmer, wrapped in a huge EU flag, throwing a burning sack of live puppies into the Thames, whilst a chorus of trans women sing the Ode to Joy and the shadow cabinet march behind him, over a carpet made of Union Jacks and photos of the late Queen, whilst waving portraits of Marx and Stalin. That might - just - get us to a Hung Parliament.
Thinking of why the left wing is more likely to do tactical voting than the right seem willing to. Is it because the left are more willing to believe the opinion polls are correct and the right are more "That's what the polls are saying but everyone I know is Tory so the polls are rubbish"?
At the moment I'd say a big factor is that the Right have been in government for 14 years, and they've forgotten how bad it is to be in Opposition, with the contra being the case for the Left.
The other factor to consider is that a large chunk of Reform voters are genuinely off the deep end in terms of conspiracism and have a much more distinct set of beliefs, so a tactical vote is a bigger jump.
Oh, that is a good point, I've seen a large number of twitter comments of the "Make sure you take a pen to vote, don't use their erasable pencils" variety.
Overall impressions - a little bit of defending record, but not much, mostly talking about future plans. Nothing on local government at all, which at least means no guff on it. Nothing substantive on planning. Big pledges on tax and migration, but how much would be believed? Surprisingly brief on national service considering it was the big hail mary policy announcement.
Call it a C.
You are very generous. Seems to me more like they asked ChatGPT to produce it for them.
Anyway seeing as it’s de rigueur to quote your travels I shall tell you where I am.
I’m in a microbrewery in the town of Cheb in the Czech Republic, a few kilometres from the German border. Once a Germanic town, prior to the Beneš expulsions.
Funnily whilst much of the ČR feels pretty prosperous these days, Cheb feels a bit left behind. Something of a funnel for migrants moving west towards Germany.
Wow. Labour dips under 40 and the others all jostling for 2nd. Incredible SCENES
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
I think Labour should be worried about this poll, but not because it puts us anywhere close to a Hung Parliament. They still have a 20-point lead.
They should be worried at what happens if they win 450+ seats on less than 40% of the vote. The democratic deficit will cause them no end of trouble.
Well, they could develop a bad conscience about it and introduce proportional representation.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Do you want them to be replaced by something more populist?
Far too many Labour folk getting high on their own supply and wanting to see a dream forevermore progressive coalition where there is none.
I'm just going to lean on the enslaved genie hypothesis. A seemingly bang average politician is about to have the largest landslide in British history off the back of essentially no policies - he'll rub the lamp and the poor abused genie will find GDP growth (potentially via planning reform).
Better than the "We'll fund everything from squeezing the poor, the sick and the disabled some more" approach.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
… todays younger generations, who after all, study harder, eat healthier, drink less, smoke less, and care about the planet more than my generation or the ones above me do…
Yeah, they are weirdos. We all need to work on them and get them to loosen up.
Give them a path to jobs that pay for housing that the average workers can afford to raise families in and they will. If only a few can get that level of security of course they will be more cautious in life, as well as blaming those who block them from a life that previous generations have taken for granted.
Thinking of why the left wing is more likely to do tactical voting than the right seem willing to. Is it because the left are more willing to believe the opinion polls are correct and the right are more "That's what the polls are saying but everyone I know is Tory so the polls are rubbish"?
At the moment I'd say a big factor is that the Right have been in government for 14 years, and they've forgotten how bad it is to be in Opposition, with the contra being the case for the Left.
The other factor to consider is that a large chunk of Reform voters are genuinely off the deep end in terms of conspiracism and have a much more distinct set of beliefs, so a tactical vote is a bigger jump.
Oh, that is a good point, I've seen a large number of twitter comments of the "Make sure you take a pen to vote, don't use their erasable pencils" variety.
#penisbest
I think you might get kicked out the polling station if you try that...oh you meant pen...is....
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
We may well not like what we get, but we damn sure are certain we hate what we've got now.
Then, it demonstrates nothing more than a failure of imagination.
If the Conservatives disappear for a hard-right alternative, with a serious prospect of winning power, then belated "oh shits" and "what have we done?" will be just that.
Wow. Labour dips under 40 and the others all jostling for 2nd. Incredible SCENES
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
I think Labour should be worried about this poll, but not because it puts us anywhere close to a Hung Parliament. They still have a 20-point lead.
They should be worried at what happens if they win 450+ seats on less than 40% of the vote. The democratic deficit will cause them no end of trouble.
Never bothered them when they won comfortably in 2005 with 35% of the vote. Nothing, in that respect at least, has changed since.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Do you want them to be replaced by something more populist?
Far too many Labour folk getting high on their own supply and wanting to see a dream forevermore progressive coalition where there is none.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
… todays younger generations, who after all, study harder, eat healthier, drink less, smoke less, and care about the planet more than my generation or the ones above me do…
Yeah, they are weirdos. We all need to work on them and get them to loosen up.
Wow you’re going about the right way to attract youngsters to this site. Did it strike you when you wrote that that some peeps on here aren’t over 70? Or would you like this site to degenerate further into an echo chamber of the old but irrelevant old bores raging against the dying of the light?
Guilty verdict against Hunter Biden is a personal blow to his father, but a significant political boost.
Why a political boost?
In theory it shows that the justice system is not being weaponised against Biden's opponents if his own son is convicted of a crime. But the people who think it is being weaponised won't care about that.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
… todays younger generations, who after all, study harder, eat healthier, drink less, smoke less, and care about the planet more than my generation or the ones above me do…
Yeah, they are weirdos. We all need to work on them and get them to loosen up.
Give them a path to jobs that pay for housing that the average workers can afford to raise families in and they will. If only a few can get that level of security of course they will be more cautious in life, as well as blaming those who block them from a life that previous generations have taken for granted.
I blame the parents. They seem never to have been taught that if things go wrong in life, you can make yourself feel better by getting off your face.
Wow. Labour dips under 40 and the others all jostling for 2nd. Incredible SCENES
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
I think Labour should be worried about this poll, but not because it puts us anywhere close to a Hung Parliament. They still have a 20-point lead.
They should be worried at what happens if they win 450+ seats on less than 40% of the vote. The democratic deficit will cause them no end of trouble.
Never bothered them when they won comfortably in 2005 with 35% of the vote. Nothing, in that respect at least, has changed since.
Rules of the game are set. If they win, they win. I like PR myself, but if the public wanted PR they shouldn't have rejected it by 68:32 when they had a chance not so long ago in electoral terms.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
The next version of the Conservative party will be clear populist right, and as it will be more coherent than the current version it will be a bit more successful. But the age profile is horrible still and demographics are against them. They could win if Labour do badly, but probably won't.
I think the version after that in the mid 2030s is one that could be more appealing and successful, embracing some of the different conservative values of todays younger generations, who after all, study harder, eat healthier, drink less, smoke less, and care about the planet more than my generation or the ones above me do. Those sound like conservative instincts to me, and I can see a reborn very different Conservative party doing very well with todays youngsters and some of the floating voters by then when people will be tired with Labour. Sadly the populist right period first is necessary to eventually get rid of it.
What you're assuming there, though, is that both the demographic profile and the voting habits of those who are younger stay static.
Look at what's happening in Europe, and, indeed, some early indicators of how views of young men in particular are changing here.
That's demonstrably not the case. And I wouldn't be placing any long-term reliance on it.
Thinking of why the left wing is more likely to do tactical voting than the right seem willing to. Is it because the left are more willing to believe the opinion polls are correct and the right are more "That's what the polls are saying but everyone I know is Tory so the polls are rubbish"?
At the moment I'd say a big factor is that the Right have been in government for 14 years, and they've forgotten how bad it is to be in Opposition, with the contra being the case for the Left.
The other factor to consider is that a large chunk of Reform voters are genuinely off the deep end in terms of conspiracism and have a much more distinct set of beliefs, so a tactical vote is a bigger jump.
Oh, that is a good point, I've seen a large number of twitter comments of the "Make sure you take a pen to vote, don't use their erasable pencils" variety.
Wow. Labour dips under 40 and the others all jostling for 2nd. Incredible SCENES
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
I think Labour should be worried about this poll, but not because it puts us anywhere close to a Hung Parliament. They still have a 20-point lead.
They should be worried at what happens if they win 450+ seats on less than 40% of the vote. The democratic deficit will cause them no end of trouble.
Never bothered them when they won comfortably in 2005 with 35% of the vote. Nothing, in that respect at least, has changed since.
I cannot see a sudden conversion to having a problem with FPTP.
Anyway seeing as it’s de rigeur to quote your travels I shall tell you where I am.
I’m in a microbrewery in the town of Cheb in the Czech Republic, a few kilometres from the German border. Once a Germanic town, prior to the Beneš expulsions.
Funnily whilst much of the ČR feels pretty prosperous these days, Cheb feels a bit left behind. Something of a funnel for migrants moving East towards Germany.
But the beer is good.
East towards Germany from the Czech Republic?
Wouldn't Czechs going East end up in Slovakia or Poland? To go to Germany you'd surely go West?
Wow. Labour dips under 40 and the others all jostling for 2nd. Incredible SCENES
Labour are definitely on the slide and I wonder if they are suffering from being SO boring. Because they are running the most tedious election campaign in history. The only policy offer I can remember is “banning energy drinks for children under 15 and 3/4, probably”
I get that this is the Ming Vase strategy and they just want to bring it home intact but at some point if you offer nothing at all then people will look elsewhere. Not to the Tories. To the LDs or Reform
I imagine some nerves this evening at Labour HQ. A couple more shifts like this and suddenly it could be a hung parliament
In Tory land there will be suicidal despair but that’s been the case for yonks
I think Labour should be worried about this poll, but not because it puts us anywhere close to a Hung Parliament. They still have a 20-point lead.
They should be worried at what happens if they win 450+ seats on less than 40% of the vote. The democratic deficit will cause them no end of trouble.
Never bothered them when they won comfortably in 2005 with 35% of the vote. Nothing, in that respect at least, has changed since.
Rules of the game are set. If they win, they win. I like PR myself, but if the public wanted PR they shouldn't have rejected it by 68:32 when they had a chance not so long ago in electoral terms.
Guilty verdict against Hunter Biden is a personal blow to his father, but a significant political boost.
Why a political boost?
I'm not a close follower of the ins and outs of American politics, but I guess it makes it harder - in theory - for Tumpites to claim the courts system are against Trump and the Republicans.
Though caring about accuracy, logic or the truth is not something Trump supporters are known for...
Guilty verdict against Hunter Biden is a personal blow to his father, but a significant political boost.
Why a political boost?
In theory it shows that the justice system is not being weaponised against Biden's opponents if his own son is convicted of a crime. But the people who think it is being weaponised won't care about that.
I think they may point out the original plea deal was so incredibly soft it was laughable. I don't think you need to be a crazed MAGA type to think they tried a bit of a stitch up to get close the story down in a way a regular person wouldn't have got the same deal.
Where as Trump's seems to the be opposite. Hush money in US politics and high society has been widely used to hide the dirty laundry. If Trump hadn't won the surprise election, it would have never been anywhere near a court. The same with the falsifying property values, it pretty much standard practice, even one the late night tv hosts who suffer the TDS let it slip they did exactly this.
The Dave Chapelle bit on Trump / dodgy dealing is very funny.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
We may well not like what we get, but we damn sure are certain we hate what we've got now.
Then, it demonstrates nothing more than a failure of imagination.
If the Conservatives disappear for a hard-right alternative, with a serious prospect of winning power, then belated "oh shits" and "what have we done?" will be just that.
Too late.
I'm genuinely interested in what you think the current Tory party offer the country at the minute. Forget Labour getting a stonking majority or what they might do in office, why should I vote Tory on July 4th?
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
… todays younger generations, who after all, study harder, eat healthier, drink less, smoke less, and care about the planet more than my generation or the ones above me do…
Yeah, they are weirdos. We all need to work on them and get them to loosen up.
Wow you’re going about the right way to attract youngsters to this site. Did it strike you when you wrote that that some peeps on here aren’t over 70? Or would you like this site to degenerate further into an echo chamber of the old but irrelevant old bores raging against the dying of the light?
All rhetorical. Think on these things.
Right, Pad Thai beckons.
Erm… like me. I’m 39.
I will continue to mock younger people for being dull, not drinking enough, and not having enough fun; because they don’t.
I do feel bad for them that my generation was the last one to be able to do whatever we wanted at Uni, safe in the knowledge almost no one had a camera with them on a night out, and those that did only made one or two hard copies.
My brother-in-law, who teaches at a university, often makes a similar observation.
He says that he and his coterie of academics are often complaining that the students are too buttoned-up, "square" and strait-laced. There are some very strange reversals of very longstanding and old generational stereotypes going on at the moment.
Anyway seeing as it’s de rigeur to quote your travels I shall tell you where I am.
I’m in a microbrewery in the town of Cheb in the Czech Republic, a few kilometres from the German border. Once a Germanic town, prior to the Beneš expulsions.
Funnily whilst much of the ČR feels pretty prosperous these days, Cheb feels a bit left behind. Something of a funnel for migrants moving East towards Germany.
But the beer is good.
East towards Germany from the Czech Republic?
Wouldn't Czechs going East end up in Slovakia or Poland? To go to Germany you'd surely go West?
Yes, had a brain freeze and have edited it. Cheb is about as far west as you can go in the ČR. West takes you to Nürnberg and München.
Earlier I paid a brief visit to Marianské Lazně. Famous for being the setting of Last Year at Marienbad.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
The next version of the Conservative party will be clear populist right, and as it will be more coherent than the current version it will be a bit more successful. But the age profile is horrible still and demographics are against them. They could win if Labour do badly, but probably won't.
I think the version after that in the mid 2030s is one that could be more appealing and successful, embracing some of the different conservative values of todays younger generations, who after all, study harder, eat healthier, drink less, smoke less, and care about the planet more than my generation or the ones above me do. Those sound like conservative instincts to me, and I can see a reborn very different Conservative party doing very well with todays youngsters and some of the floating voters by then when people will be tired with Labour. Sadly the populist right period first is necessary to eventually get rid of it.
What you're assuming there, though, is that both the demographic profile and the voting habits of those who are younger stay static.
Look at what's happening in Europe, and, indeed, some early indicators of how views of young men in particular are changing here.
That's demonstrably not the case. And I wouldn't be placing any long-term reliance on it.
Probably not wise of Starmer to attack the Corbyn manifesto today, its a free hit for journos Thursday that he backed it to the hilt in 2019 and that, in itself, feeds a favourite Sunak attack line. It of course makes no difference to the result but its the sort of laziness that big leads invite.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
We may well not like what we get, but we damn sure are certain we hate what we've got now.
Then, it demonstrates nothing more than a failure of imagination.
If the Conservatives disappear for a hard-right alternative, with a serious prospect of winning power, then belated "oh shits" and "what have we done?" will be just that.
Too late.
I'm genuinely interested in what you think the current Tory party offer the country at the minute. Forget Labour getting a stonking majority or what they might do in office, why should I vote Tory on July 4th?
People are still exceeding the daily photo allowance.
If this continues everybody's ability to post photos will be revoked.
It is your call.
So far, WilliamGlenn, Heathener, and KJH have exceeded their quota today.
I'm hearing in the tones of the teacher who told us that a small minority were spoiling it for the rest of us.
"Do you want us to just do Maths today, and not have a chance to enjoy the sunshine outside ? Because that's what'll happen."
There's an alternative.
I can add a script that automatically bans people if they exceed the daily quota.
Do it!
It’s not hard to remember - one photo a day. Its actually quite a good discipline and one I’ve stuck to throughout my PB career anyway
But seriously. You don’t need the grief as you recuperate from a nasty op - make it automatic. Good idea
And if a poster needs to offer visual proof of something (like my £10 given to the Ukrainian lady for @Sandpit) and you’ve used up your quota then simply link to an image hosting website like Imgur
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
We may well not like what we get, but we damn sure are certain we hate what we've got now.
Then, it demonstrates nothing more than a failure of imagination.
If the Conservatives disappear for a hard-right alternative, with a serious prospect of winning power, then belated "oh shits" and "what have we done?" will be just that.
Too late.
I'm genuinely interested in what you think the current Tory party offer the country at the minute. Forget Labour getting a stonking majority or what they might do in office, why should I vote Tory on July 4th?
Imagine if Labour stays on 38 and Tories start eating up Reform.
Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.
Can only happen if loads of grumpy Reform voters suddenly decide to back Sunak as lesser of two evils, rather than sticking to their guns, or sitting on their hands, or breaking for Labour in significant numbers.
I came into this expecting the Tory vote to firm up significantly, as the fact that voters now had to actually pick a Government rather than complain/emote came into view, but there's no sign of swing back so far - and that includes among the vital elderly vote.
I would suggest the only mechanism is if something cuts through about Labour that they can be galvanised to want to STOP. Sufficiently galvanised they overlook Sunak.
Given Labour’s message discipline so far, that seems unlikely.
Yes. The Ming Vase Marathon reaches it's conclusion with the manifesto launch on Thursday, I think. If that goes according to plan then all Sir Keir has to do is get to polling day without being filmed either throwing a sack of live puppies into the Thames or anywhere with a conspicuous EU flag in the background, and he's Prime Minister. Though actually, given the popularity of the outgoing administration, he might well survive even those.
I am having visions now of Keir Starmer, wrapped in a huge EU flag, throwing a burning sack of live puppies into the Thames, whilst a chorus of trans women sing the Ode to Joy and the shadow cabinet march behind him, over a carpet made of Union Jacks and photos of the late Queen, whilst waving portraits of Marx and Stalin. That might - just - get us to a Hung Parliament.
That or proposing to reform the triple lock.
Or eating a pizza with pineapple topping whilst listenig to Radiohead
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
The next version of the Conservative party will be clear populist right, and as it will be more coherent than the current version it will be a bit more successful. But the age profile is horrible still and demographics are against them. They could win if Labour do badly, but probably won't.
I think the version after that in the mid 2030s is one that could be more appealing and successful, embracing some of the different conservative values of todays younger generations, who after all, study harder, eat healthier, drink less, smoke less, and care about the planet more than my generation or the ones above me do. Those sound like conservative instincts to me, and I can see a reborn very different Conservative party doing very well with todays youngsters and some of the floating voters by then when people will be tired with Labour. Sadly the populist right period first is necessary to eventually get rid of it.
What you're assuming there, though, is that both the demographic profile and the voting habits of those who are younger stay static.
Look at what's happening in Europe, and, indeed, some early indicators of how views of young men in particular are changing here.
That's demonstrably not the case. And I wouldn't be placing any long-term reliance on it.
I'm not really assuming that. As I wrote I think a coherent populist Conservative party will do better than todays mish mash does so accepting that the messaging will work with some more than it does now. I'd put their chances of power sometime in the next 8 years in the 20-35% range, neither probable nor unlikely.
The most likely path for me is that it lurches to the right, but eventually wins again from the centre, which again won't be todays centre but could be one based more on things like fitness, technology and the environment.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
We may well not like what we get, but we damn sure are certain we hate what we've got now.
Then, it demonstrates nothing more than a failure of imagination.
If the Conservatives disappear for a hard-right alternative, with a serious prospect of winning power, then belated "oh shits" and "what have we done?" will be just that.
Too late.
Of course, the obvious concern is that the Conservatives themselves turn into a far right alternative, and they then just sit there, being grumpy and angry, waiting to have their turn as soon as the public gets bored of Labour.
It's the fatal flaw in our democracy, these two entrenched, fossil parties that refuse to die, and keep handing power back and forth between them regardless of how loopy they become. We very nearly had Corbyn as PM a few years back; Farage (or Suella, or some revolting specimen from the extreme right of the Tory party whom we've yet to hear much about) may only be another few years away.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
The next version of the Conservative party will be clear populist right, and as it will be more coherent than the current version it will be a bit more successful. But the age profile is horrible still and demographics are against them. They could win if Labour do badly, but probably won't.
I think the version after that in the mid 2030s is one that could be more appealing and successful, embracing some of the different conservative values of todays younger generations, who after all, study harder, eat healthier, drink less, smoke less, and care about the planet more than my generation or the ones above me do. Those sound like conservative instincts to me, and I can see a reborn very different Conservative party doing very well with todays youngsters and some of the floating voters by then when people will be tired with Labour. Sadly the populist right period first is necessary to eventually get rid of it.
What you're assuming there, though, is that both the demographic profile and the voting habits of those who are younger stay static.
Look at what's happening in Europe, and, indeed, some early indicators of how views of young men in particular are changing here.
That's demonstrably not the case. And I wouldn't be placing any long-term reliance on it.
Tomorrow belongs to them.
One reason the social democrats are in the trouble they're in right across Europe is their longformed habit of calling anyone who argues for an end to mass immigration "far right".
As a consequence, they one day might end up with the real thing.
My brother-in-law, who teaches at a university, often makes a similar observation.
He says that he and his coterie of academics are often complaining that the students are too buttoned-up, "square" and strait-laced. There are some very strange reversals of very longstanding and old generational stereotypes going on at the moment.
Its quite simple. Huge numbers of people are at university = huge number of people have a degree. Thus graduate scheme are much more competitive as most just require a 2:1 to apply. Thus they are all shit scared that if they rock the boat and cause trouble they will get a bad mark against their name and make it hard to get on the grad schemes.
When only 15% of people were going to uni, even if you got a Desmond, you still getting the chance to get a grad job.
And hence why invariably the mouthy ones always protesting these days are from very wealthy backgrounds as even if they do shit and get in trouble, mummy and daddy know somebody who will get them in the door.
Guilty verdict against Hunter Biden is a personal blow to his father, but a significant political boost.
Why a political boost?
In theory it shows that the justice system is not being weaponised against Biden's opponents if his own son is convicted of a crime. But the people who think it is being weaponised won't care about that.
I think they may point out the original plea deal was so incredibly soft it was laughable. I don't think you need to be a crazed MAGA type to think they tried a bit of a stitch up to get close the story down in a way a regular person wouldn't have got the same deal.
Where as Trump's seems to the be opposite. Hush money in US politics and high society has been widely used to hide the dirty laundry. If Trump hadn't won the surprise election, it would have never been anywhere near a court.
I don't agree, during lockdown I watched quite a lot of US court cases where they had gone over Zoom and a lot of plea agreements are very soft by British standards. It makes sense from the District Attorney's office as they get the less serious cases off their books and to the courts as even the least serious cases can go to jury trial which eats up loads of court time.
The anti-Tory vote becoming more efficient is the final piece of the jigsaw. If it is maintained, the Tories are over and out - perhaps for the rest of my lifetime.
Be careful what you wish for.
You might not like what comes next.
We may well not like what we get, but we damn sure are certain we hate what we've got now.
Then, it demonstrates nothing more than a failure of imagination.
If the Conservatives disappear for a hard-right alternative, with a serious prospect of winning power, then belated "oh shits" and "what have we done?" will be just that.
Too late.
I'm genuinely interested in what you think the current Tory party offer the country at the minute. Forget Labour getting a stonking majority or what they might do in office, why should I vote Tory on July 4th?
Low tax on elite school fees.
And indentured servitude for teenagers. An inspiring vision of a better future.
My brother-in-law, who teaches at a university, often makes a similar observation.
He says that he and his coterie of academics are often complaining that the students are too buttoned-up, "square" and strait-laced. There are some very strange reversals of very longstanding and old generational stereotypes going on at the moment.
When I was a grad, on nights out the managers left after a while for us to keep drinking and have fun without them crashing our party (I assume they went on elsewhere).
Now the grads turn up, have half a glass of water, and leave us to go on drinking, which we may as well do since they have left. An observation many of my peers agree with, so it’s not just down to the other explanation that I happen to be a massive ####.
Guilty verdict against Hunter Biden is a personal blow to his father, but a significant political boost.
Why a political boost?
In theory it shows that the justice system is not being weaponised against Biden's opponents if his own son is convicted of a crime. But the people who think it is being weaponised won't care about that.
I think they may point out the original plea deal was so incredibly soft it was laughable. I don't think you need to be a crazed MAGA type to think they tried a bit of a stitch up to get close the story down in a way a regular person wouldn't have got the same deal.
Where as Trump's seems to the be opposite. Hush money in US politics and high society has been widely used to hide the dirty laundry. If Trump hadn't won the surprise election, it would have never been anywhere near a court.
I don't agree, during lockdown I watched quite a lot of US court cases where they had gone over Zoom and a lot of plea agreements are very soft by British standards. It makes sense from the District Attorney's office as they get the less serious cases off their books and to the courts as even the least serious cases can go to jury trial which eats up loads of court time.
Erhh, it was eventually deemed too soft, hence why it went to trial. The judge said I can't sign this off, it is ridiculous.
Imagine if Labour stays on 38 and Tories start eating up Reform.
Unlikely with so much hate for Sunak, but @leon is right, if we got to 38/32 we’d all be debating if Labour could cling on for a majority.
Can only happen if loads of grumpy Reform voters suddenly decide to back Sunak as lesser of two evils, rather than sticking to their guns, or sitting on their hands, or breaking for Labour in significant numbers.
I came into this expecting the Tory vote to firm up significantly, as the fact that voters now had to actually pick a Government rather than complain/emote came into view, but there's no sign of swing back so far - and that includes among the vital elderly vote.
I would suggest the only mechanism is if something cuts through about Labour that they can be galvanised to want to STOP. Sufficiently galvanised they overlook Sunak.
Given Labour’s message discipline so far, that seems unlikely.
Yes. The Ming Vase Marathon reaches it's conclusion with the manifesto launch on Thursday, I think. If that goes according to plan then all Sir Keir has to do is get to polling day without being filmed either throwing a sack of live puppies into the Thames or anywhere with a conspicuous EU flag in the background, and he's Prime Minister. Though actually, given the popularity of the outgoing administration, he might well survive even those.
I am having visions now of Keir Starmer, wrapped in a huge EU flag, throwing a burning sack of live puppies into the Thames, whilst a chorus of trans women sing the Ode to Joy and the shadow cabinet march behind him, over a carpet made of Union Jacks and photos of the late Queen, whilst waving portraits of Marx and Stalin. That might - just - get us to a Hung Parliament.
That or proposing to reform the triple lock.
Or eating a pizza with pineapple topping whilst listenig to Radiohead
Ah .... a much more suitable punishment for photo miscreants ....
I’m not surprised by the Sky News poll. The reception we’re getting on the doors all across Aberdeenshire is way above what the polls were suggesting.
This is a hate election. The electorate hate the Tories and they intend to exact their vengeance upon them. The comedy of them being torn asunder - Reform supplanting them as the conservative vote and the LibDems supplanting them as the not Labour centre vote.
Aside from the comedy gold that are cyber Nat comments on my Facebook ads, the other quest is just how angry are Scottish voters with them? SNP collapsing to 14 is pretty brutal.
Perhaps the 66/1 on me is a good value bet. And the 100 or 150/1 you can get on my neighbouring LibDems even more so…
Comments
A mile wide but an inch deep.
Proportional Representation can lead to minority parties wielding undue power far beyond their electoral support.
It’s not perfect, but then democracy isn’t.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMvyTlcUoD4
Those proclaiming a Greater Starmer Reich for at least 10-15 years are being idiots.
Reform have a low ceiling.
The depth of the contempt in which the governing Conservatives (NOT, I stress "local" Conservatives who seem for the most part to be able and willing to distance themsleves from the Westminster swarm) are held is there for all to see in most polls.
1. PBers who exceed their daily allowance of photos should be executed by force feeding them Lib Dem "Wining Here" posters.
Errr .... That's it.
Agreed that this isn't a good poll for Labour, though.
Excuse before was the EU but parties now need to capitalise on brexit to make Britain great again !
You might not like what comes next.
If somehow Ed Davey got to be Leader of the Opposition, he's going to have thin pickings to fill a Shadow Cabinet let alone the rest of a Shadow Frontbench.
@Jonathan gets this. @SouthamObserver is getting a bit emotional.
The other factor to consider is that a large chunk of Reform voters are genuinely off the deep end in terms of conspiracism and have a much more distinct set of beliefs, so a tactical vote is a bigger jump.
Over to Labour now.
What will they say on Dilnot?
Our plan to strengthen communities
- 105 towns with £20m endowment fund
- Extend shared prosperity fund
- Create freeports and business rates retention zones
- Seaside heritage fund
- Ban mayors from road pricing
- Reverse ULEZ
- Rule out blanket low traffic neughbourhoods
- No new smart motorways
- Quash horizon convictions
- Won’t overturn voter id change or change voter age (note – included for clarity I guess, though just confirming no change)
- Clarify sex in equality act
- UK is multi ethnic, multi racial, multi faith success story (note – that’s great, but no policies included here?)
Our plan to back farmers and fisheries to grow our food security- Increase farming budget 1bn
- Legal target to enhance food security (note – meaning what?)
- Fast track permissions for infrastructure on farms
- Replicate 100m uk seafood fund
- Improve public sector procurement (note – guff)
- Our plan to support our rural way of life and enhance our environment
- Boost availability of affordable housing for local people in rural areas. Rural exception sites support local people into home ownership
- Consult uk overseas territories to expand environment act
- Ratify global oceans treaty
- £50 water rebate for those in the south west across the parliament (note – I’m in the SW, now you have my vote!)
- Cut red tape about planting of trees (note – the red tape comes from government!)
- Open up more access to nature routes.
Our plan to support sport and the creative sector- Competitive tax incentives for tv and film
- Review nighttime economy and look at how to reverse decline (note – so no plan on how to do so)
- Oppose state regulation of the press
Our plan to strengthen the UK (note – leave office?)Voters pile into the Lib Dems.
I am fine with that.
Including the factoid that Queen Anne was the last monarch to veto Parliament. A bill was passed to raise a militia in Scotland because of a possible Jacobite invasion. She veto-ed it on the grounds the militia might switch sides.
Perhaps might be better to substitute something less cruel but even more unusual?
Such as violators being subjected to 24/7 broadcast readings from Lib Dem manifesto and Ed Davey's press releases as well as learned analysis of dodgy LibDem bar charts.
I think the version after that in the mid 2030s is one that could be more appealing and successful, embracing some of the different conservative values of todays younger generations, who after all, study harder, eat healthier, drink less, smoke less, and care about the planet more than my generation or the ones above me do. Those sound like conservative instincts to me, and I can see a reborn very different Conservative party doing very well with todays youngsters and some of the floating voters by then when people will be tired with Labour. Sadly the populist right period first is necessary to eventually get rid of it.
I can make a case for all of Lib Dems, Conservatives and Reform, even Greens to an extent, but quite a bit depends on how well each does on July 4th, and how they position themselves in the months that follow.
They should be worried at what happens if they win 450+ seats on less than 40% of the vote. The democratic deficit will cause them no end of trouble.
Call it a C.
I’m in a microbrewery in the town of Cheb in the Czech Republic, a few kilometres from the German border. Once a Germanic town, prior to the Beneš expulsions.
Funnily whilst much of the ČR feels pretty prosperous these days, Cheb feels a bit left behind. Something of a funnel for migrants moving west towards Germany.
But the beer is good.
Wishful thinking, I know.
If the Conservatives disappear for a hard-right alternative, with a serious prospect of winning power, then belated "oh shits" and "what have we done?" will be just that.
Too late.
All rhetorical. Think on these things.
Right, Pad Thai beckons.
Look at what's happening in Europe, and, indeed, some early indicators of how views of young men in particular are changing here.
That's demonstrably not the case. And I wouldn't be placing any long-term reliance on it.
Wouldn't Czechs going East end up in Slovakia or Poland? To go to Germany you'd surely go West?
Though caring about accuracy, logic or the truth is not something Trump supporters are known for...
Where as Trump's seems to the be opposite. Hush money in US politics and high society has been widely used to hide the dirty laundry. If Trump hadn't won the surprise election, it would have never been anywhere near a court. The same with the falsifying property values, it pretty much standard practice, even one the late night tv hosts who suffer the TDS let it slip they did exactly this.
The Dave Chapelle bit on Trump / dodgy dealing is very funny.
I will continue to mock younger people for being dull, not drinking enough, and not having enough fun; because they don’t.
I do feel bad for them that my generation was the last one to be able to do whatever we wanted at Uni, safe in the knowledge almost no one had a camera with them on a night out, and those that did only made one or two hard copies.
He says that he and his coterie of academics are often complaining that the students are too buttoned-up, "square" and strait-laced. There are some very strange reversals of very longstanding and old generational stereotypes going on at the moment.
Overall 48% Right, 32% Left, 18% centre. That’s possible landslide territory.
Earlier I paid a brief visit to Marianské Lazně. Famous for being the setting of Last Year at Marienbad.
It of course makes no difference to the result but its the sort of laziness that big leads invite.
The most likely path for me is that it lurches to the right, but eventually wins again from the centre, which again won't be todays centre but could be one based more on things like fitness, technology and the environment.
It's the fatal flaw in our democracy, these two entrenched, fossil parties that refuse to die, and keep handing power back and forth between them regardless of how loopy they become. We very nearly had Corbyn as PM a few years back; Farage (or Suella, or some revolting specimen from the extreme right of the Tory party whom we've yet to hear much about) may only be another few years away.
As a consequence, they one day might end up with the real thing.
When only 15% of people were going to uni, even if you got a Desmond, you still getting the chance to get a grad job.
And hence why invariably the mouthy ones always protesting these days are from very wealthy backgrounds as even if they do shit and get in trouble, mummy and daddy know somebody who will get them in the door.
Landesspiegel Liechtenstein - Bar Association warns against abolition of the third instance [aka Liechtenstein Supreme Court]
https://landesspiegel.li/2024/06/rechtsanwaltskammer-warnt-vor-abschaffung-der-dritten-instanz/
Now the grads turn up, have half a glass of water, and leave us to go on drinking, which we may as well do since they have left. An observation many of my peers agree with, so it’s not just down to the other explanation that I happen to be a massive ####.
This is a hate election. The electorate hate the Tories and they intend to exact their vengeance upon them. The comedy of them being torn asunder - Reform supplanting them as the conservative vote and the LibDems supplanting them as the not Labour centre vote.
Aside from the comedy gold that are cyber Nat comments on my Facebook ads, the other quest is just how angry are Scottish voters with them? SNP collapsing to 14 is pretty brutal.
Perhaps the 66/1 on me is a good value bet. And the 100 or 150/1 you can get on my neighbouring LibDems even more so…