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Do you want to help out a bookie? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 16 in General
imageDo you want to help out a bookie? – politicalbetting.com

Ladbrokes have a market up on what publicity shy antics Sir Ed Davey will get up to before election day. Using the golden rule that you should never get involved in a market where the bookie doesn’t offer both sides of the bet applies here.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    First like... well we all know.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    edited June 11
    Anthony Joshua could make a bit of pocket money here.

    None of those seem likely to me.
  • Options
    Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 624
    First...?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    "...it appears the Lib Dems are desperate to become the third party again."

    I think they may be raising their sights tbh.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    Penddu2 said:

    First...?

    Not even close.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    I am still waiting for high dive into a bucket of water & chainsaw juggling.
  • Options
    Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 624
    There is no such thing as bad publicity (although Vaughan Gething might disagree)
  • Options
    Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 624

    Penddu2 said:

    First...?

    Not even close.
    I blame time zones....
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,387
    Davey's attempts to portray himself as some sort of kooky 'national treasure' are as irritating as hell. The Lib Dems deserve oblivion for that and that alone.
  • Options
    Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 624
    I am waiting for him to be photographed mudwresting with a top less Taylor Swift..
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800

    Davey's attempts to portray himself as some sort of kooky 'national treasure' are as irritating as hell. The Lib Dems deserve oblivion for that and that alone.

    There is a balance to be had. I think signalling you aren't a robot and a normal human is positive, but overdoing it can look desperate. Boris got away with it because he was just leaning into being an incompetent.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    Penddu2 said:

    I am waiting for him to be photographed mudwresting with a top less Taylor Swift..

    Or is that just you fantasising.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    The most unlikely thing he will do in the next 4 weeks is become LoTO
  • Options
    Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 624
    Seriously though.. What about bog snorkeling in his parties Welsh target seat??
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,904
    I would normally read the Tory manifesto, but given that there's not a cat in hell's chance of any of it being implemented I can't be bothered on this occasion.

    I will only comment that, from the reports I've read, there's no big surprise or 'gamechanger' contained in it, which will please Starmer.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    Seriously, I think a donkey ride on one of the Lib Dem target beaches is quite likely.

    Punting on the River Cam?
    Seal watching in North norfolk?
    Ah, got it...
    Surfing on Sennen Beach
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,908
    Balloon seems realistically possible! Tie it in with something like "All the other parties are full of hot air".
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,904

    Seriously, I think a donkey ride on one of the Lib Dem target beaches is quite likely.

    Punting on the River Cam?
    Seal watching in North norfolk?
    Ah, got it...
    Surfing on Sennen Beach

    Sunak could respond by doing Surfin' USA.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,387

    Davey's attempts to portray himself as some sort of kooky 'national treasure' are as irritating as hell. The Lib Dems deserve oblivion for that and that alone.

    There is a balance to be had. I think signalling you aren't a robot and a normal human is positive, but overdoing it can look desperate. Boris got away with it because he was just leaning into being an incompetent.
    Yes, Boris is clearly the model here. But Boris did all that to death as the inexorable rise of dull and dismal Sir Keith has proven, so why bother?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 11
    It was bad enough for the security / police dealing with Big Billy the other week....imagine getting the call to come and eject Tyson Fury from your bar.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/boxing/2024/06/11/watch-video-tyson-fury-escorted-out-bar-before-ccollapsing/
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,864
    Scott_xP said:

    The most unlikely thing he will do in the next 4 weeks is become LoTO

    Have you watched today’s manifesto launch or looked at the Tory manifesto - I think LoTO is far more likely than people would have thought at the beginning of the campaign
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356

    Penddu2 said:

    I am waiting for him to be photographed mudwresting with a top less Taylor Swift..

    Or is that just you fantasising.
    Do not click on this link

    https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1800507097064558651
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,221
    Mortimer said:

    About the only time I graze on the newsagents’ shelves nowadays is in airports. On my way to Bergerac today via Edinburgh (still one of the shittier ones) and I note that W.H. Smiths stocks something called Hungarian Conservative, wtf is that all about? Looks reasonably plush and I assume they don’t make many sales amongst the couthy Lothianers so certainly subsidised to spout Orbanite propaganda.

    At least my partner didn’t buy a Speccie this time.

    Just back from the Dordogne myself!

    Bordeaux airport is the latest addition to my list of 'places to land but not depart from'....
    Hope you had a great time, absolutely wonderful part of the world.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,221
    Scott_xP said:

    Penddu2 said:

    I am waiting for him to be photographed mudwresting with a top less Taylor Swift..

    Or is that just you fantasising.
    Do not click on this link

    https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1800507097064558651
    Riz Truss
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,904

    Scott_xP said:

    Penddu2 said:

    I am waiting for him to be photographed mudwresting with a top less Taylor Swift..

    Or is that just you fantasising.
    Do not click on this link

    https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1800507097064558651
    Riz Truss
    Riz Trunak, surely?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 11

    Seriously, I think a donkey ride on one of the Lib Dem target beaches is quite likely.

    Punting on the River Cam?
    Seal watching in North norfolk?
    Ah, got it...
    Surfing on Sennen Beach

    Sunak could respond by doing Surfin' USA.
    3 months time, most likely.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,705
    The last two days have been the dullest of the election campaign so far.

    It's all feeling quite snoozy.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,221

    The last two days have been the dullest of the election campaign so far.

    It's all feeling quite snoozy.

    Agreed. It's been quite a boring week so far. Need something to spice it up.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,908
    Hmmmmmmmm

    https://x.com/willydunn/status/1800503202590441800

    "In the Conservative manifesto costings, you save £100k sacking an NHS manager (of course you account for their salary!) but you only spend £1k hiring a police officer (no need to account for their salary!)"
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464
    Zelenskyy arrives at German Bundestag.

    Full house — almost: Members of the far-right AfD and the far-left BSW parties are absent.

    I let you draw your own conclusions…


    https://x.com/vonderburchard/status/1800508500155785653
  • Options
    lockhimuplockhimup Posts: 51

    FPT:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    Someone was asking this exact question here a few days ago. An answer from the Institute of Fiscal Studies

    Q: How can we have highest taxes in 70 years AND struggling public services AND rising debt?

    A: Combination of sky high debt interest payments, more spending on health and welfare, and poor growth.


    https://x.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1800125036042592761

    The pandemic has to be paid for. It might have made sense to have a specific post-pandemic surcharge on income tax, to be abolished when the pandemic debt was repaid, but I'm guessing government accounting is not so simple.

    Politically it might have been helpful, though. We borrowed lots of money to get through a difficult situation. Now we have to pay it back.
    We could have had a one-off wealth tax to cover all the costs.
    Worldwide the 20 richest people could have paid for the entirety of the global economic burden from covid, and still remained as multi billionaires afterwards. Crazy world we live in.
    The problem with socialism is you always run out of other people's money.
    The problem with capitalism is you always run off with other people's money.
    Judging by how much he's added to the national debt, Sunak has run out of other people's money, their children's money and their grandchildren's money
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,221
    CatMan said:

    Hmmmmmmmm

    https://x.com/willydunn/status/1800503202590441800

    "In the Conservative manifesto costings, you save £100k sacking an NHS manager (of course you account for their salary!) but you only spend £1k hiring a police officer (no need to account for their salary!)"

    Oh dear.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    Scott_xP said:

    Penddu2 said:

    I am waiting for him to be photographed mudwresting with a top less Taylor Swift..

    Or is that just you fantasising.
    Do not click on this link

    https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1800507097064558651
    The Inhuman League
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @KateAndrs

    The Tories have published a manifesto where the tax burden…keeps rising.

    Details, and new calculations from the @SpecDataHub, on @SpecCoffeeHouse
    👇

    https://x.com/KateAndrs/status/1800515217513959610
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    San Francisco has serious issues, exhibit #43539

    Chevy Camaro goes up in flames during sideshow at Embarcadero & Washington at Pier 1 in San Francisco. Those in crowd stomp on trunk & kick car as others do donuts around the fire

    https://x.com/henrykleeKTVU/status/1799970927918346350

    This is central San Francisco, Four Seasons is like 3 blocks away.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @AdamJSchwarz

    Sunak claims "This year everyone in work is getting a £900 tax cut on average".

    Simply incorrect. Anyone earning under £26k will be worse off when other tax changes are taken into account.

    https://x.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/1800493112550436984

    Even Tory spreadsheets are calling Sunak a liar
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,308

    Seriously, I think a donkey ride on one of the Lib Dem target beaches is quite likely.

    Punting on the River Cam?
    Seal watching in North norfolk?
    Ah, got it...
    Surfing on Sennen Beach

    Sunak could respond by doing Surfin' USA.
    He's been giving the country the old Surfin' Bird for the last few years.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 11
    Scott_xP said:

    @AdamJSchwarz

    Sunak claims "This year everyone in work is getting a £900 tax cut on average".

    Simply incorrect. Anyone earning under £26k will be worse off when other tax changes are taken into account.

    https://x.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/1800493112550436984

    Even Tory spreadsheets are calling Sunak a liar

    It isn't "simply incorrect", as he says on average. There are winners and losers. Careful wording that can be misleading, yes.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,221
    Scott_xP said:

    @KateAndrs

    The Tories have published a manifesto where the tax burden…keeps rising.

    Details, and new calculations from the @SpecDataHub, on @SpecCoffeeHouse
    👇

    https://x.com/KateAndrs/status/1800515217513959610

    The Speccie really doesn't like the Tories anymore, does it?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 11

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateAndrs

    The Tories have published a manifesto where the tax burden…keeps rising.

    Details, and new calculations from the @SpecDataHub, on @SpecCoffeeHouse
    👇

    https://x.com/KateAndrs/status/1800515217513959610

    The Speccie really doesn't like the Tories anymore, does it?
    It doesn't like the high tax, high spend version of the Tory party.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,221
    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    Yep. I think the Stuntathon is working. Nobody even knew who Sir Ed was before this campaign. And when he is interviewed, he speaks well. The Libs' PR team needed a plan to raise his profile. Now they have journalists asking them every day what exciting stunt they are planning, and can we film it? You cannot buy that sort of publicity (well, okay, there's the £29 entry fee for Thorpe Park to account for).
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,146
    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    I was in Henley last weekend - 7-0 in terms of LD-Tory signs as well as a lot of former Conservatives I spoke to going either to Ref or the LDs. I'd be shocked if it stays Tory at this point.
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,010

    Zelenskyy arrives at German Bundestag.

    Full house — almost: Members of the far-right AfD and the far-left BSW parties are absent.

    I let you draw your own conclusions…


    https://x.com/vonderburchard/status/1800508500155785653

    That's populists for you. They don't want to deal with the tough questions like defence, economy, climate and the like. Who cares about boring stuff like that. Their job is to tell you you can have all the things you want, not deal with boring stuff.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 11
    Chameleon said:

    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    I was in Henley last weekend - 7-0 in terms of LD-Tory signs as well as a lot of former Conservatives I spoke to going either to Ref or the LDs. I'd be shocked if it stays Tory at this point.
    I think signage as evidence for anything is totally outdated these days. It was widely reported in 2015 and 2019 very little sign of Tory support anywhere on the street.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,132
    Scott_xP said:

    @AdamJSchwarz

    Sunak claims "This year everyone in work is getting a £900 tax cut on average".

    Simply incorrect. Anyone earning under £26k will be worse off when other tax changes are taken into account.

    https://x.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/1800493112550436984

    Even Tory spreadsheets are calling Sunak a liar

    Hmmm. Presumably they will be paying less tax in cash terms but this is a calculation based on “real terms” costs, with the allowance having lost its value? Not sure I agree with calling that a tax rise.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,397

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateAndrs

    The Tories have published a manifesto where the tax burden…keeps rising.

    Details, and new calculations from the @SpecDataHub, on @SpecCoffeeHouse
    👇

    https://x.com/KateAndrs/status/1800515217513959610

    The Speccie really doesn't like the Tories anymore, does it?
    I don't think it's that. They're already fighting the battle for the blame game, establishing the story for why the Tories lost, to control the narrative for which policies the Tories should adopt in opposition.

    This has been the game for a while now. Hence all the rubbish about the Tories talking right, but acting left, or making out that Sunak is a centrist. The story will be that the Tories lost by not being sufficiently right-wing.

    I think the actual explanation is that they've simply been incompetent, to a disastrous degree. But that doesn't mean the story from the Spectator won't catch on.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 11

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateAndrs

    The Tories have published a manifesto where the tax burden…keeps rising.

    Details, and new calculations from the @SpecDataHub, on @SpecCoffeeHouse
    👇

    https://x.com/KateAndrs/status/1800515217513959610

    The Speccie really doesn't like the Tories anymore, does it?
    I don't think it's that. They're already fighting the battle for the blame game, establishing the story for why the Tories lost, to control the narrative for which policies the Tories should adopt in opposition.

    This has been the game for a while now. Hence all the rubbish about the Tories talking right, but acting left, or making out that Sunak is a centrist. The story will be that the Tories lost by not being sufficiently right-wing.

    I think the actual explanation is that they've simply been incompetent, to a disastrous degree. But that doesn't mean the story from the Spectator won't catch on.
    What is interesting, normally by now natural supporters roll in behind their team with the worst criticism normally being well that is imperfect but not as bad as the opposition. The Spectator seem to be doing the opposite, highlighting the Tory plans are worse.
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,010

    Chameleon said:

    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    I was in Henley last weekend - 7-0 in terms of LD-Tory signs as well as a lot of former Conservatives I spoke to going either to Ref or the LDs. I'd be shocked if it stays Tory at this point.
    I think signage as evidence for anything is totally outdated these days. It was widely reported in 2015 and 2019 very little sign of Tory support anywhere on the street.
    You're not allowed to put up signs on public property any more, are you?

    I got a call the other day letting me know that the Reform candidate was putting up signs near me and that I might want to pop down and photograph them as evidence. By the time I got there 10 minutes later, he was already hurriedly taking them down again :smiley:
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628
    Chameleon said:

    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    I was in Henley last weekend - 7-0 in terms of LD-Tory signs as well as a lot of former Conservatives I spoke to going either to Ref or the LDs. I'd be shocked if it stays Tory at this point.
    Would you, would anyone on here, not at least have serious qualms about putting Tory signs up on their property? You put yourself at too much risk of anything from some tosser vandalising it and damaging your property to the “never kissed a Tory/Tory scum” treating you like a sub human afterwards.

    Whilst shy Tories aren’t likely such a thing in polling I bet they are a real thing in terms of public displays of support.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,146
    edited June 11

    Chameleon said:

    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    I was in Henley last weekend - 7-0 in terms of LD-Tory signs as well as a lot of former Conservatives I spoke to going either to Ref or the LDs. I'd be shocked if it stays Tory at this point.
    I think signage as evidence for anything is totally outdated these days. It was widely reported in 2015 and 2019 very little sign of Tory support anywhere on the street.
    That's fair enough - but it's notable because I've not seen the LD diamonds in the constituency before - and this is in the only area in the constituency that they/Greens didn't win in 2023 locals.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    Did Ed not learn from Farage’s near-fatal efforts at doing crazy stunts around an election?

    It’s true that the only thing worse than being talked about, is not being talked about - but if everyone’s calling you an idiot and you’re running the risk of getting yourself injured in the process…
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,146
    boulay said:

    Chameleon said:

    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    I was in Henley last weekend - 7-0 in terms of LD-Tory signs as well as a lot of former Conservatives I spoke to going either to Ref or the LDs. I'd be shocked if it stays Tory at this point.
    Would you, would anyone on here, not at least have serious qualms about putting Tory signs up on their property? You put yourself at too much risk of anything from some tosser vandalising it and damaging your property to the “never kissed a Tory/Tory scum” treating you like a sub human afterwards.

    Whilst shy Tories aren’t likely such a thing in polling I bet they are a real thing in terms of public displays of support.
    London yes, Henley no. The point is more that I'd not seen the lib dem diamonds before!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    edited June 11
    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    If the Lib Dems could get into the high teens, we could realistically be looking at the Tories coming fourth in the share of the vote.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 11
    Did they do any planning prior to calling a GE, because it sure feels like they mashed this together like they left their university assignment to the last minute and perhaps used ChatGPT for some suggestions....

    https://order-order.com/2024/06/11/summarised-the-onward-manifesto/
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    edited June 11

    Zelenskyy arrives at German Bundestag.

    Full house — almost: Members of the far-right AfD and the far-left BSW parties are absent.

    I let you draw your own conclusions…


    https://x.com/vonderburchard/status/1800508500155785653

    That a vote taken on sending more weapons East, is likely to pass today?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,319
    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    Ladbrokes missed a trick by not pricing up Peppa Pig World. The LibDems might even do it if they could get permission: remind their supporters of Boris, Brexit and Partygate, and RefUK's supporters of the same.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,628
    Chameleon said:

    boulay said:

    Chameleon said:

    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    I was in Henley last weekend - 7-0 in terms of LD-Tory signs as well as a lot of former Conservatives I spoke to going either to Ref or the LDs. I'd be shocked if it stays Tory at this point.
    Would you, would anyone on here, not at least have serious qualms about putting Tory signs up on their property? You put yourself at too much risk of anything from some tosser vandalising it and damaging your property to the “never kissed a Tory/Tory scum” treating you like a sub human afterwards.

    Whilst shy Tories aren’t likely such a thing in polling I bet they are a real thing in terms of public displays of support.
    London yes, Henley no. The point is more that I'd not seen the lib dem diamonds before!
    I guess when your opponent is absolutely on its arse it’s a lot easier to be brave and cocky. We’ve seen how this site back in 2008 was full of loud boisterous Tories putting the few Labour defenders left to the sword and the reverse is true now, as it will change again.

    Nobody putting up a Lib Dem sign in somewhere genteel such as Henley runs much of a risk of social backlash or actual abuse so why not.

    It would be like Scotland fans dancing in Trafalgar Square in the lead up to them playing a surprise semi final when England were knocked out in the group rounds. People would laugh a bit and say “fair enough, we were shit, enjoy your day in the sun.”
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997

    Chameleon said:

    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    I was in Henley last weekend - 7-0 in terms of LD-Tory signs as well as a lot of former Conservatives I spoke to going either to Ref or the LDs. I'd be shocked if it stays Tory at this point.
    I think signage as evidence for anything is totally outdated these days. It was widely reported in 2015 and 2019 very little sign of Tory support anywhere on the street.
    You're not allowed to put up signs on public property any more, are you?

    I got a call the other day letting me know that the Reform candidate was putting up signs near me and that I might want to pop down and photograph them as evidence. By the time I got there 10 minutes later, he was already hurriedly taking them down again :smiley:
    The only 2 signs I have seen anywhere are Plaids
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,010
    boulay said:

    Chameleon said:

    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    I was in Henley last weekend - 7-0 in terms of LD-Tory signs as well as a lot of former Conservatives I spoke to going either to Ref or the LDs. I'd be shocked if it stays Tory at this point.
    Would you, would anyone on here, not at least have serious qualms about putting Tory signs up on their property? You put yourself at too much risk of anything from some tosser vandalising it and damaging your property to the “never kissed a Tory/Tory scum” treating you like a sub human afterwards.

    Whilst shy Tories aren’t likely such a thing in polling I bet they are a real thing in terms of public displays of support.
    I volunteered to put up a Lib Dem signboard in my front garden in 2019. It was knocked down and vandalised a couple of days later, while I was out, but thankfully no other damage done. I was actually pretty shocked at the time that someone in my leafy suburb would feel strongly enough to do such a thing. I wouldn't do it again for fear of greater reprisals that could affect my family.

    It certainly made me appreciate all the more those that become candidates and the like, essentially putting themselves in the line of fire of nutters and extremists.
  • Options
    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 291

    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    If the Lib Dems could get into the high teens, we could realistically be looking at the Tories coming fourth in the share of the vote.
    Something underrated in some quarters about the Lib Dems is their efficiency and ground game. They don't need a huge amount in the polls to be able to win tons of seats.

    I really think that this year we are going to see a huge amount more tactical voting than some people expect, because it's the first election where it's been properly known online as a phenomena, with the likes of Carol Vorderman sharing the tactical voting links a lot and encouraging their followers to do so, AND there isn't a clear difference between Labour and the Lib Dems that dissuades tactical voting (like Corbyn and Brexit were).

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    I was in Henley last weekend - 7-0 in terms of LD-Tory signs as well as a lot of former Conservatives I spoke to going either to Ref or the LDs. I'd be shocked if it stays Tory at this point.
    I think signage as evidence for anything is totally outdated these days. It was widely reported in 2015 and 2019 very little sign of Tory support anywhere on the street.
    That's fair enough - but it's notable because I've not seen the LD diamonds in the constituency before - and this is in the only area in the constituency that they/Greens didn't win in 2023 locals.
    The orange diamonds proliferating is a bit old school, but quite good for establishing that LDs are the challengers in seats like Henley.

    Ed Davey has come up with a great campaigning style. Photo stunts that make the news, but a serious point too, hence the common theme of water.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,397

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateAndrs

    The Tories have published a manifesto where the tax burden…keeps rising.

    Details, and new calculations from the @SpecDataHub, on @SpecCoffeeHouse
    👇

    https://x.com/KateAndrs/status/1800515217513959610

    The Speccie really doesn't like the Tories anymore, does it?
    I don't think it's that. They're already fighting the battle for the blame game, establishing the story for why the Tories lost, to control the narrative for which policies the Tories should adopt in opposition.

    This has been the game for a while now. Hence all the rubbish about the Tories talking right, but acting left, or making out that Sunak is a centrist. The story will be that the Tories lost by not being sufficiently right-wing.

    I think the actual explanation is that they've simply been incompetent, to a disastrous degree. But that doesn't mean the story from the Spectator won't catch on.
    What is interesting, normally by now natural supporters roll in behind their team with the worst criticism normally being well that is imperfect but not as bad as the opposition. The Spectator seem to be doing the opposite, highlighting the Tory plans are worse.
    It's a Trotskyist mindset, where the greater enemy are the people in the party who don't completely agree with you, and all that matters is controlling the printing press, not how successful the party is in wider politics.

    In the past the Right have been less self-indulgent than that, but the fact that Labour was so weak that the Right could survive UKIP and other Brexit-created splits seems to have taken off all restraint.
  • Options
    Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 624

    Chameleon said:

    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    I was in Henley last weekend - 7-0 in terms of LD-Tory signs as well as a lot of former Conservatives I spoke to going either to Ref or the LDs. I'd be shocked if it stays Tory at this point.
    I think signage as evidence for anything is totally outdated these days. It was widely reported in 2015 and 2019 very little sign of Tory support anywhere on the street.
    You're not allowed to put up signs on public property any more, are you?

    I got a call the other day letting me know that the Reform candidate was putting up signs near me and that I might want to pop down and photograph them as evidence. By the time I got there 10 minutes later, he was already hurriedly taking them down again :smiley:
    The only 2 signs I have seen anywhere are Plaids
    Are you in new Bangor Aberconwy seat? I could see that as a new Plaid target...

    If in Clwyd North then no chance
  • Options
    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 291
    edited June 11
    PBers often talk about legendary election night betting odds:
    • getting 14/1 on Leave after Farage conceded on EU Referendum night
    • getting 4/1 on Joe Biden in 2020 when the early results looked decent for Trump
    etc etc

    I do wonder if the July 4th Exit poll is going to present some great opportunities because it will be so hard to know exactly how to apply the %s to seats. The Exit Poll that millions view on TV might be wide of the mark on seat totals, particularly outside of Labour / Conservatives.

    Canny punters could e.g. see the Lib Dems on 12%, see the odds lengthen accordingly as it might be seen as slightly disappointing - but then back them for big seat gains because they believe they'll be efficient enough to win good seats with that number.

    The opposite could be said of Reform. Maybe Reform get 17%, and there's a rush of money on them winning multiple seats - but in the end they win 0-1, and you can lay all the money that's gone on them getting 5+ seats.

    Would love to see a write up that tries to predict potential opportunities like this.

  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,705
    edited June 11
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    I was in Henley last weekend - 7-0 in terms of LD-Tory signs as well as a lot of former Conservatives I spoke to going either to Ref or the LDs. I'd be shocked if it stays Tory at this point.
    I think signage as evidence for anything is totally outdated these days. It was widely reported in 2015 and 2019 very little sign of Tory support anywhere on the street.
    That's fair enough - but it's notable because I've not seen the LD diamonds in the constituency before - and this is in the only area in the constituency that they/Greens didn't win in 2023 locals.
    I've generally seen less posters in my area for all the parties than I can remember for any campaign. A lot do tend to appear nearer the day, but it feels as if people aren't connected.

    This is a very odd and contradictory election. The changes are potentially epochal, but everyone seems fed up and bored. There's none of the anger of 1979 or the optimism of 1997, but it's just as important as those, if not more so.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited June 11
    Sandpit said:

    Objects thrown at Nigel Farage on open-top bus
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmjj1n030djo

    Come on BBC, "objects", he wasn't throwing teddy bears or flowers, you mean construction waste of rocks / bricks. Luckily it looks like he was so weak as piss he can't throw with much force.

    I am not fan of Farage, but again this twisting and downplaying of events is a) unacceptable and b) counterproductive. I said the same thing when people attacked Corbyn. You beat people you disagree with, with better arguments and at the ballot box.

    When that stupid bint went for Farage the other week, they should have had her in front of the magistrates 24 hours later, rather than giving her a court date after the election. They need to make an example out of someone, and quickly, before someone gets injured.
    Also the media should not give these people free publicity e.g. promoting her OFs. Same as the ecofascists invading the sporting events, you don't give them publicity, you don't show them, you say pitch invaders, been dealt with, move on and then no interviewing them on the media the next day about why they did it etc.

    Streaking basically stopped when TV decided never to show them or talk about it.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    Scott_xP said:

    @KateAndrs

    The Tories have published a manifesto where the tax burden…keeps rising.

    Details, and new calculations from the @SpecDataHub, on @SpecCoffeeHouse
    👇

    https://x.com/KateAndrs/status/1800515217513959610

    Well of course they have. Their last budget continued fiscal drag for several more years (and at the end of those years, guess what? Surprise!). It is one of the reasons that the £2k was the biggest load of nonsense since Y2K. Tax will rise whoever wins the election, the only question is by how much and whether that is for yet more spending or deficit reduction.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464

    PBers often talk about legendary election night betting odds:

    • getting 14/1 on Leave after Farage conceded on EU Referendum night
    • getting 4/1 on Joe Biden in 2020 when the early results looked decent for Trump
    etc etc

    I do wonder if the July 4th Exit poll is going to present some great opportunities because it will be so hard to know exactly how to apply the %s to seats. The Exit Poll that millions view on TV might be wide of the mark on seat totals, particularly outside of Labour / Conservatives.

    Canny punters could e.g. see the Lib Dems on 12%, see the odds lengthen accordingly as it might be seen as slightly disappointing - but then back them for big seat gains because they believe they'll be efficient enough to win good seats with that number.

    The opposite could be said of Reform. Maybe Reform get 17%, and there's a rush of money on them winning multiple seats - but in the end they win 0-1, and you can lay all the money that's gone on them getting 5+ seats.

    Would love to see a write up that tries to predict potential opportunities like this.

    The exit poll doesn't give vote shares, just seats.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,126
    For what it's worth, the stupid stunts of Davey put me off.

    Yeah, you got some media attention. For being a berk.

    It's a shame the Yorkshire Party want to slice England into bits, otherwise I might well be voting that way. As it is, I'm not sure. Not voting Reform, or Lib Dem, or Labour. Or Conservative. Or Green.

    I might not have an option I want to back on the ballot paper.

    *checks*

    Ah, there is another option! Oh. It's the SDP.

    Now, the question is: how do I deface my voting slip? Or do I actually vote Lib Dem? Or give the Conservatives a pity vote? The agony of choice.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,393
    Sandpit said:

    Objects thrown at Nigel Farage on open-top bus
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmjj1n030djo

    Come on BBC, "objects", he wasn't throwing teddy bears or flowers, you mean construction waste of rocks / bricks. Luckily it looks like he was so weak as piss he can't throw with much force.

    I am not fan of Farage, but again this twisting and downplaying of events is a) unacceptable and b) counterproductive. I said the same thing when people attacked Corbyn. You beat people you disagree with, with better arguments and at the ballot box.

    When that stupid bint went for Farage the other week, they should have had her in front of the magistrates 24 hours later, rather than giving her a court date after the election. They need to make an example out of someone, and quickly, before someone gets injured.
    A lot of court cases take 3 years plus or just simply get forgotten about because we are unwilling to fund our courts properly, or reform them. Just another example of why its time for change.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,240
    I think SED has done absolutely the right thing. At first it seems Kooky but all he's done is followed the successful Avis marketing strategy. "We're never going to be the biggest so we tray harder"

    ....and it works and it's working.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,159

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateAndrs

    The Tories have published a manifesto where the tax burden…keeps rising.

    Details, and new calculations from the @SpecDataHub, on @SpecCoffeeHouse
    👇

    https://x.com/KateAndrs/status/1800515217513959610

    The Speccie really doesn't like the Tories anymore, does it?
    I don't think it's that. They're already fighting the battle for the blame game, establishing the story for why the Tories lost, to control the narrative for which policies the Tories should adopt in opposition.

    This has been the game for a while now. Hence all the rubbish about the Tories talking right, but acting left, or making out that Sunak is a centrist. The story will be that the Tories lost by not being sufficiently right-wing.

    I think the actual explanation is that they've simply been incompetent, to a disastrous degree. But that doesn't mean the story from the Spectator won't catch on.
    It's ensuring that anything and everything associated with this campaign will be radioactive for decades to come.

    It'll become part of the accepted political lore, and the Spads of the 2040s will mutter to their ministers: "make sure you stay right to the end of the ceremony or you'll end up like Rishi Sunak!", "don't lie about the civil service okaying your tax calcs, remember the Tories in 2024", and "if you cut NICs, the pensioners will revolt - that's what finally killed the old Conservative party".

    It's why the right wing would be nuts to go through with their threat to issue an alternative manifesto - their best bet is to shut up and wait for the election to be over. Any intervention they make now will be tainted by the campaign's failure.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,318
    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    Every time Fraser Nelson mentions that the top 1% contribute 28% of all income tax, it just serves as a reminder that the 1% are minted and the rest of the country isn't earning much at all.

    The same with this stat. Something has gone horribly wrong when pensioners are the biggest contributors of income tax.
    We have a crop of pensioners who put lots into pensions and as a result quite a few have high pension incomes in retirement.

    Which is better than them all starving in heaps.

    We also have a crop of pensioners on extremely generous gold plated defined benefit pensions that they did not contribute in full towards.

    Pensions that were not funded at the time and instead set up on the basis that future workers would pay for the costs instead then they'd get future pensions afterwards, except then the ladder was removed and those pensions aren't available to today's workers.

    So we have a triple whammy of needing to pay for pensions that were never costed at the time, not being eligible for those ourselves despite paying for them, AND having to pay higher taxes too.
    I'm very sorry you haven't got a DB pension Barty but you do appreciate they were part of the package which some people chose to accept, others opted for different packages at different employers.

    You have not paid a penny of my DB pension, unless you contributed to the profits of those companies I worked for, and then presumably you did so because you chose to.
    They were a part of the package yes.

    But they were never paid for at the time. The bill was passed on.

    We're still paying today for DB schemes. Every taxpayer is.

    Instead of NI being a higher rate of tax on employment, a higher rate of tax on DB pensions to reflect the way they were unfunded and still need paying for would make more sense.

    Alternatively we could tax everyone the same.
    But that's how finances work. If you have a mortgage you aren't setting aside a fund out of which to make future payments, you are relying on the prospect of future wages. People tend to start costing the NHS once they hit 50. Do you want to deny them treatment because nobody set aside a fund in 1974 to pay for their future ailments?
    No.

    I want today's well off pensioners who are in a privileged position to pay at least the same rate of tax as someone earning the same income via PAYE.
    They already do you dumb assed clown
    The sites thickest poster still doesn't understand that National Insurance is a tax.

    Never change malcolm.
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,010

    Sandpit said:

    Objects thrown at Nigel Farage on open-top bus
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmjj1n030djo

    Come on BBC, "objects", he wasn't throwing teddy bears or flowers, you mean construction waste of rocks / bricks. Luckily it looks like he was so weak as piss he can't throw with much force.

    I am not fan of Farage, but again this twisting and downplaying of events is a) unacceptable and b) counterproductive. I said the same thing when people attacked Corbyn. You beat people you disagree with, with better arguments and at the ballot box.

    When that stupid bint went for Farage the other week, they should have had her in front of the magistrates 24 hours later, rather than giving her a court date after the election. They need to make an example out of someone, and quickly, before someone gets injured.
    Also the media should not give these people free publicity e.g. promoting her OFs. Same as the ecofascists invading the sporting events, you don't give them publicity, you don't show them, you say pitch invaders, been dealt with, move on and then no interviewing them on the media the next day about why they did it etc.

    Streaking basically stopped when TV decided never to show them or talk about it.
    No. Disrupting events is not the same as attacking people, and you shouldn't try to equate the two.
  • Options
    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 291

    PBers often talk about legendary election night betting odds:

    • getting 14/1 on Leave after Farage conceded on EU Referendum night
    • getting 4/1 on Joe Biden in 2020 when the early results looked decent for Trump
    etc etc

    I do wonder if the July 4th Exit poll is going to present some great opportunities because it will be so hard to know exactly how to apply the %s to seats. The Exit Poll that millions view on TV might be wide of the mark on seat totals, particularly outside of Labour / Conservatives.

    Canny punters could e.g. see the Lib Dems on 12%, see the odds lengthen accordingly as it might be seen as slightly disappointing - but then back them for big seat gains because they believe they'll be efficient enough to win good seats with that number.

    The opposite could be said of Reform. Maybe Reform get 17%, and there's a rush of money on them winning multiple seats - but in the end they win 0-1, and you can lay all the money that's gone on them getting 5+ seats.

    Would love to see a write up that tries to predict potential opportunities like this.

    The exit poll doesn't give vote shares, just seats.
    I stand corrected - is there anything with can glean from that / their methodology, maybe compared to the initial seats that are coming in from Sunderland etc? I remember some punters on here talking about how they used Sunderland remain/leave totals in the EU referendum to know which way to bet straight away.

    It's obviously very difficult to get this exactly but I'm sure some people will have interesting theories / ideas.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    Sandpit said:

    Objects thrown at Nigel Farage on open-top bus
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmjj1n030djo

    Come on BBC, "objects", he wasn't throwing teddy bears or flowers, you mean construction waste of rocks / bricks. Luckily it looks like he was so weak as piss he can't throw with much force.

    I am not fan of Farage, but again this twisting and downplaying of events is a) unacceptable and b) counterproductive. I said the same thing when people attacked Corbyn. You beat people you disagree with, with better arguments and at the ballot box.

    When that stupid bint went for Farage the other week, they should have had her in front of the magistrates 24 hours later, rather than giving her a court date after the election. They need to make an example out of someone, and quickly, before a candidate or one of their team gets injured.
    Yep, I seem to remember that during the riots a few years ago those arrested were appearing in the courts and getting hammered within 24 hours which played a significant part in bringing them to an end. Same should have happened here.

    And I can't stand the man.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,289
    The LDs have obviously decided that talking about proportional representation isn't a vote winner.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203

    Chameleon said:

    Cicero said:

    Actually the risk for Ed was that he was seen as boring and grey. These stunts may not do much for gravitas, but they certainly deal with the "boring issue". More to the point, the campaign against the shit in the rivers has really struck a chord. The manifesto is reasonably solid, and the local campaigns are going well.

    I am hearing some pretty good news in several key targets, to the point that the next layer of targets is now getting some attention. So I think the Lib Dems are having a better campaign across the board. Labour are too timid and the Tory clown car could hardly be worse.

    I´d be a bit surprised if we don´t see a bet of progress in the general polls soon too. This is clearly a drastically happier campaign than 2019.

    I was in Henley last weekend - 7-0 in terms of LD-Tory signs as well as a lot of former Conservatives I spoke to going either to Ref or the LDs. I'd be shocked if it stays Tory at this point.
    I think signage as evidence for anything is totally outdated these days. It was widely reported in 2015 and 2019 very little sign of Tory support anywhere on the street.
    You're not allowed to put up signs on public property any more, are you?

    I got a call the other day letting me know that the Reform candidate was putting up signs near me and that I might want to pop down and photograph them as evidence. By the time I got there 10 minutes later, he was already hurriedly taking them down again :smiley:
    The only 2 signs I have seen anywhere are Plaids
    Were you passing HY's house at the time?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887
    edited June 11

    For what it's worth, the stupid stunts of Davey put me off.

    Yeah, you got some media attention. For being a berk.

    It's a shame the Yorkshire Party want to slice England into bits, otherwise I might well be voting that way. As it is, I'm not sure. Not voting Reform, or Lib Dem, or Labour. Or Conservative. Or Green.

    I might not have an option I want to back on the ballot paper.

    *checks*

    Ah, there is another option! Oh. It's the SDP.

    Now, the question is: how do I deface my voting slip? Or do I actually vote Lib Dem? Or give the Conservatives a pity vote? The agony of choice.

    Nah, Davey is just embracing his inner Centrist dad, and it compares well to the wooden Starmer and petulant Sunak. Its a careful set of stunts that will keep HIGNFY going for as long as Davey is active in politics, but he switches to serious and compassionate in the post photo stunt interviews.

  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,953

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    Every time Fraser Nelson mentions that the top 1% contribute 28% of all income tax, it just serves as a reminder that the 1% are minted and the rest of the country isn't earning much at all.

    The same with this stat. Something has gone horribly wrong when pensioners are the biggest contributors of income tax.
    We have a crop of pensioners who put lots into pensions and as a result quite a few have high pension incomes in retirement.

    Which is better than them all starving in heaps.

    We also have a crop of pensioners on extremely generous gold plated defined benefit pensions that they did not contribute in full towards.

    Pensions that were not funded at the time and instead set up on the basis that future workers would pay for the costs instead then they'd get future pensions afterwards, except then the ladder was removed and those pensions aren't available to today's workers.

    So we have a triple whammy of needing to pay for pensions that were never costed at the time, not being eligible for those ourselves despite paying for them, AND having to pay higher taxes too.
    I'm very sorry you haven't got a DB pension Barty but you do appreciate they were part of the package which some people chose to accept, others opted for different packages at different employers.

    You have not paid a penny of my DB pension, unless you contributed to the profits of those companies I worked for, and then presumably you did so because you chose to.
    They were a part of the package yes.

    But they were never paid for at the time. The bill was passed on.

    We're still paying today for DB schemes. Every taxpayer is.

    Instead of NI being a higher rate of tax on employment, a higher rate of tax on DB pensions to reflect the way they were unfunded and still need paying for would make more sense.

    Alternatively we could tax everyone the same.
    But that's how finances work. If you have a mortgage you aren't setting aside a fund out of which to make future payments, you are relying on the prospect of future wages. People tend to start costing the NHS once they hit 50. Do you want to deny them treatment because nobody set aside a fund in 1974 to pay for their future ailments?
    No.

    I want today's well off pensioners who are in a privileged position to pay at least the same rate of tax as someone earning the same income via PAYE.
    They already do you dumb assed clown
    The sites thickest poster still doesn't understand that National Insurance is a tax.

    Never change malcolm.
    You're confusing hypothecation with its absence.

    It's an odd tax when you get something back. That's the issue - as is the current government calling it National INSURANCE and saying stuff like

    " ... The qualifying years on your National Insurance record affect how much State Pension you get. Check your State Pension forecast to see what you might get when you reach State Pension age.
    Your spouse or civil partner’s pension

    Your new State Pension is usually based on your own National Insurance record. In some cases you might inherit State Pension or increase it through a spouse or civil partner."
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,289
    Let's not forget about this from 2019.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49508231

    "Jo Brand's controversial joke about throwing battery acid "went beyond what was appropriate" for a Radio 4 comedy show, the BBC has ruled.

    The corporation has partially upheld complaints about the quip made by the comedian on Radio 4's Heresy in June.

    Referring to political figures who had been hit by milkshakes, she said: "I'm thinking, why bother with a milkshake when you could get some battery acid?"

    But the BBC dismissed complaints that her remark amounted to incitement.

    Following the broadcast, Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage, who had a milkshake thrown at him by protesters several weeks earlier, accused Brand of "inciting violence"."
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990

    For what it's worth, the stupid stunts of Davey put me off.

    Yeah, you got some media attention. For being a berk.

    It's a shame the Yorkshire Party want to slice England into bits, otherwise I might well be voting that way. As it is, I'm not sure. Not voting Reform, or Lib Dem, or Labour. Or Conservative. Or Green.

    I might not have an option I want to back on the ballot paper.

    *checks*

    Ah, there is another option! Oh. It's the SDP.

    Now, the question is: how do I deface my voting slip? Or do I actually vote Lib Dem? Or give the Conservatives a pity vote? The agony of choice.

    It could be worse. I am going to go along to my local polling station and vote for a Tory in the probably vain hope he will beat the SNP incumbent. I think I will postpone my shower until after the deed.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,397
    AlsoLei said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateAndrs

    The Tories have published a manifesto where the tax burden…keeps rising.

    Details, and new calculations from the @SpecDataHub, on @SpecCoffeeHouse
    👇

    https://x.com/KateAndrs/status/1800515217513959610

    The Speccie really doesn't like the Tories anymore, does it?
    I don't think it's that. They're already fighting the battle for the blame game, establishing the story for why the Tories lost, to control the narrative for which policies the Tories should adopt in opposition.

    This has been the game for a while now. Hence all the rubbish about the Tories talking right, but acting left, or making out that Sunak is a centrist. The story will be that the Tories lost by not being sufficiently right-wing.

    I think the actual explanation is that they've simply been incompetent, to a disastrous degree. But that doesn't mean the story from the Spectator won't catch on.
    It's ensuring that anything and everything associated with this campaign will be radioactive for decades to come.

    It'll become part of the accepted political lore, and the Spads of the 2040s will mutter to their ministers: "make sure you stay right to the end of the ceremony or you'll end up like Rishi Sunak!", "don't lie about the civil service okaying your tax calcs, remember the Tories in 2024", and "if you cut NICs, the pensioners will revolt - that's what finally killed the old Conservative party".

    It's why the right wing would be nuts to go through with their threat to issue an alternative manifesto - their best bet is to shut up and wait for the election to be over. Any intervention they make now will be tainted by the campaign's failure.
    I think that with the Spectator, the Telegraph and the Express behind them am alternative manifesto could work for the Tory Right.

    It could shore up the vote a bit by winning back some from Reform, even if it also loses votes in the centre. It enables them to claim the credit for any seat held. It gives them something to campaign for before polling day, and creates a litmus test for the leadership election.
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    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,781

    Davey's attempts to portray himself as some sort of kooky 'national treasure' are as irritating as hell. The Lib Dems deserve oblivion for that and that alone.

    Irritating perhaps to extreme Tories, who do not have any national treasures of their own.
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 291
    Anyone know what polls we might expect out later today?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @AndrewSparrow

    Richest 20% of families will gain most from tax cut plans in Tory manifesto, says Resolution Foundation

    https://x.com/AndrewSparrow/status/1800525849797804107
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,318

    Sandpit said:

    Objects thrown at Nigel Farage on open-top bus
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmjj1n030djo

    Come on BBC, "objects", he wasn't throwing teddy bears or flowers, you mean construction waste of rocks / bricks. Luckily it looks like he was so weak as piss he can't throw with much force.

    I am not fan of Farage, but again this twisting and downplaying of events is a) unacceptable and b) counterproductive. I said the same thing when people attacked Corbyn. You beat people you disagree with, with better arguments and at the ballot box.

    When that stupid bint went for Farage the other week, they should have had her in front of the magistrates 24 hours later, rather than giving her a court date after the election. They need to make an example out of someone, and quickly, before someone gets injured.
    Also the media should not give these people free publicity e.g. promoting her OFs. Same as the ecofascists invading the sporting events, you don't give them publicity, you don't show them, you say pitch invaders, been dealt with, move on and then no interviewing them on the media the next day about why they did it etc.

    Streaking basically stopped when TV decided never to show them or talk about it.
    No. Disrupting events is not the same as attacking people, and you shouldn't try to equate the two.
    It depends what you mean by disrupting.

    Criminal damage/trespass/blocking transportation etc are equivalent to attacking people.

    The latter could result in someone's death.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,012
    edited June 11

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateAndrs

    The Tories have published a manifesto where the tax burden…keeps rising.

    Details, and new calculations from the @SpecDataHub, on @SpecCoffeeHouse
    👇

    https://x.com/KateAndrs/status/1800515217513959610

    The Speccie really doesn't like the Tories anymore, does it?
    I don't think it's that. They're already fighting the battle for the blame game, establishing the story for why the Tories lost, to control the narrative for which policies the Tories should adopt in opposition.

    This has been the game for a while now. Hence all the rubbish about the Tories talking right, but acting left, or making out that Sunak is a centrist. The story will be that the Tories lost by not being sufficiently right-wing.

    I think the actual explanation is that they've simply been incompetent, to a disastrous degree. But that doesn't mean the story from the Spectator won't catch on.
    Economically at least, this govt. are the most left wing of my lifetime.

    The battle for the soul of the Tory party won't involve Blairite-tribute acts like Sunak....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,464

    PBers often talk about legendary election night betting odds:

    • getting 14/1 on Leave after Farage conceded on EU Referendum night
    • getting 4/1 on Joe Biden in 2020 when the early results looked decent for Trump
    etc etc

    I do wonder if the July 4th Exit poll is going to present some great opportunities because it will be so hard to know exactly how to apply the %s to seats. The Exit Poll that millions view on TV might be wide of the mark on seat totals, particularly outside of Labour / Conservatives.

    Canny punters could e.g. see the Lib Dems on 12%, see the odds lengthen accordingly as it might be seen as slightly disappointing - but then back them for big seat gains because they believe they'll be efficient enough to win good seats with that number.

    The opposite could be said of Reform. Maybe Reform get 17%, and there's a rush of money on them winning multiple seats - but in the end they win 0-1, and you can lay all the money that's gone on them getting 5+ seats.

    Would love to see a write up that tries to predict potential opportunities like this.

    The exit poll doesn't give vote shares, just seats.
    I stand corrected - is there anything with can glean from that / their methodology, maybe compared to the initial seats that are coming in from Sunderland etc? I remember some punters on here talking about how they used Sunderland remain/leave totals in the EU referendum to know which way to bet straight away.

    It's obviously very difficult to get this exactly but I'm sure some people will have interesting theories / ideas.
    You’re not going to make money betting against Sir John Curtice and the exit poll.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    edited June 11
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Objects thrown at Nigel Farage on open-top bus
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmjj1n030djo

    Come on BBC, "objects", he wasn't throwing teddy bears or flowers, you mean construction waste of rocks / bricks. Luckily it looks like he was so weak as piss he can't throw with much force.

    I am not fan of Farage, but again this twisting and downplaying of events is a) unacceptable and b) counterproductive. I said the same thing when people attacked Corbyn. You beat people you disagree with, with better arguments and at the ballot box.

    When that stupid bint went for Farage the other week, they should have had her in front of the magistrates 24 hours later, rather than giving her a court date after the election. They need to make an example out of someone, and quickly, before a candidate or one of their team gets injured.
    Yep, I seem to remember that during the riots a few years ago those arrested were appearing in the courts and getting hammered within 24 hours which played a significant part in bringing them to an end. Same should have happened here.

    And I can't stand the man.
    Yes, when they had the riots in London. They had the magistrates come in early the next day, and after a few of the scrotes had been given a year or two, with others remanded in custody to the Crown Court for sentencing, the mindless violence, robbery, and looting quickly stopped.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,318

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateAndrs

    The Tories have published a manifesto where the tax burden…keeps rising.

    Details, and new calculations from the @SpecDataHub, on @SpecCoffeeHouse
    👇

    https://x.com/KateAndrs/status/1800515217513959610

    The Speccie really doesn't like the Tories anymore, does it?
    I don't think it's that. They're already fighting the battle for the blame game, establishing the story for why the Tories lost, to control the narrative for which policies the Tories should adopt in opposition.

    This has been the game for a while now. Hence all the rubbish about the Tories talking right, but acting left, or making out that Sunak is a centrist. The story will be that the Tories lost by not being sufficiently right-wing.

    I think the actual explanation is that they've simply been incompetent, to a disastrous degree. But that doesn't mean the story from the Spectator won't catch on.
    The idea the Tories are acting left isn't rubbish it's a matter of fact.

    The Tories have increased the welfare bill significantly. We now spend a higher percentage of GDP on welfare than we did when Gordon Brown left office. Despite the fact that unemployment is significantly lower.
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,529

    Scott_xP said:

    Penddu2 said:

    I am waiting for him to be photographed mudwresting with a top less Taylor Swift..

    Or is that just you fantasising.
    Do not click on this link

    https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1800507097064558651
    The Inhuman League
    "Don`t, don`t you want me?"
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,393
    Scott_xP said:

    @AndrewSparrow

    Richest 20% of families will gain most from tax cut plans in Tory manifesto, says Resolution Foundation

    https://x.com/AndrewSparrow/status/1800525849797804107

    No-one will be better or worse off from the plans in the Tory manifesto.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,319

    Objects thrown at Nigel Farage on open-top bus
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmjj1n030djo

    Come on BBC, "objects", he wasn't throwing teddy bears or flowers, you mean construction waste of rocks / bricks. Luckily it looks like he was so weak as piss he can't throw with much force.

    I am not fan of Farage, but again this twisting and downplaying of events is a) unacceptable and b) counterproductive. I said the same thing when people attacked Corbyn. You beat people you disagree with, with better arguments and at the ballot box.

    There has been discussion on TwiX as to whether it was rocks or concrete or wet cement that was thrown. Do you want the BBC to sit on the story until this has been established, or go with "objects"?
This discussion has been closed.