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The Tory Party’s long term problems – politicalbetting.com
The Tory Party’s long term problems – politicalbetting.com
I have done countless pool clips and how they always work is that we ask one or two questions on the agreed topic and then ask different quesitons for the rest of the interview and USUALLY politicians answer, or least engage with the question slightly. This was off the charts.
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But the real question in this election is who comes second.
Gp forth, @DavidL .
He’s saying “back me or sack me” - kind of - but there’s a high chance an irritated French public will tell him to “jumperons en le lac”
Still, I remember that Ed M interview when he was leader where he trotted out the same soundbite for every question. They all do it and it's partly the fault of the media for just cherry picking tiny parts from longer interviews to put on the news. The only way politicians can get a message across is to make sure it's the only thing they say.
That said, this still looks like a new low.
Also amusing to see Jon Craig has taken lessons from Adam Boulton in being Sky's chief irritable late middle aged man.
ETA: I was so busy making a lame joke about the non-typo that I missed the actual typo
Zero wider implications though, just another goofball nobody
It makes you wonder if this clip would have been circulated if there were a vaguely plausible chance of survival for the Tory government, No 10 and party bosses.
From that to Dick Holden in 32 years.
Post election, a sign of things to come. She could be a prominent figure in a new Farage-led Tory party.
But if Crossover happens soon, things might get even weirder very quickly.
Eg Le Pen’s party activists are, apparently, delighted by the opportunity of this new election. That suggests macron has panicked and made a major mistake
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/09/were-everywhere-now-national-rally-toast-eu-elections-success
Opposition does create a recruiting ground for that talent but of course some of it depends on what direction the Tories take from here and what they are reduced to in the next parliament.
Dubious argument.
Labour have found room for Cat Smith, Lloyd Russell Moyle (until a fortnight ago) Sultana, Long Bailey and Burgon, yet they seem to be about to return to government.
It solves the problem of Reform candidates losing elections.
I wonder who'll be the party leader if Mr Farage and Mr Anderson get hoofed in the GE.
(Incidentally, I'm wondering about just how much Reform - and some Tories - are pandering to the hard right vote.
The pub at which Mr Anderson launched his campaign in Ashfield has a pretty dicey reputation, non-political locals who are better informed tell me. "Not a pub to go to casually."
Incidentally incidentally - what are the politics of the Hells Angels? There's a branch in Huthwaite here. Genuine question - I don't know.)
https://www.gov.uk/government/people/alasdair-hamilton
And giving the right more rope before the presidential election.
It's a risky strategy - but so are all the other ones. Clinging on in the face of public opinion would likely be more damaging.
The parties, all of them, also give the impression of not really caring too much about the vetting of candidates beyond their political views.
It would cost roughly the same as the deposit, to bring in outsiders for a basic background check and social media history report on your candidates, and you’d only need to do it for newcomers. With half the PMs in Parliament likely to change at this election, there’s likely to be a fair few unlikely winners in there, and possibly another Jared O’Mara or two among them.
At least we can now recall the most egregious offenders.
"Back me or sack me!".
The lesson from France is that you need a strong centre right to defeat the right. The left cannot hold power forever.
For many MPs the job used to be a bit of a calling. I get the impression for many of them now it’s a stepping stone to government and if they’re not getting it, they’ll get out. And that they don’t find the day-to-day role particularly glamorous.
I see three outcomes
1. Macron’s gamble pays off - he wins an outright majority in Parliament. Incredibly unlikely
2. Same as it ever was. The bored annoyed voters return a similar Parliament with no overall maj and a strong RN. The gamble fails
3. The voters give RN an overall maj. Also highly unlikely but if it happens and the cohabitation is dysfunctional RN can simply say “we need the presidency as well” - so they win in 2027
As things stand, all signs point to Le Pen winning in 2027. But 3 years is a long time…
Do we have any Hells Angels on PB?
Here when they put on a funeral ride it gets hundreds of Harleys.
And there's plenty of "women as willingly-arse-waving bits of stuff" in the imagery - almost like a deliberately dark version of the nose art from WW2 Bomber Aircraft.
That can be mainly tongue in cheek. Or it can have a system of implicit values similar to those being normalised by painting of women as enjoying-being-casually-brutalised in online pornography aimed at the younger generations.
https://www.facebook.com/syl81ashfield/?locale=en_GB
Seems unlikely on current polls the new intake of Tory MPs will be that big anyway, certainly much smaller than 2019 where vast numbers of new redwall MPs were elected. Most state school and non Oxbridge but who now unfortunately look likely to lose their seats.
Of the still relatively safe Tory seats, candidates picked are largely SPADs or ex MPs with a few councillors or business figures close to Rishi added in too. Most of them Sunak loyalists chosen from CCHQ shortlists. So the quality probably won't be any worse than before but the new parliamentary party is likely ironically to be more centrist than the old parliamentary party. Yes some high profile centrists like Hunt, Chalk and Mordaunt likely lose their seats but so too most likely do some high profile rightwingers like IDS, Clarke and Rees Mogg
However my tiresome tirade harks back to the post Brexit hubris demonstrated by people like yourself. One or two on here ( I am not suggesting you, but wear the cap if it fits) seem to have this masturbatory fantasy that Brexit will be a proven success if European nations are run by 27 Orban lookey-likeys.
Given how unpopular the Conservatives are now with anyone of working age, that's going to be a huge problem going forward.
As for Holden,
Yes, his name is Dickie
But he's not from Billericay
He's not doing... Very well.
History suggests probabilities, not certainties, but the chances are that at the next change of government the new name label will say 'Conservative'.
It certainly used to be openly racist, and I imagine still has it in its DNA, but this will equally vary quite a bit. Misogyny is pretty much a given, but there again I daresay there are exceptions.
Fans of file formats will be pleased that the PdF apparently won a seat.
Pan-European party Volt won 3 seats in Germany, a 200% increase - by far the biggest percent increase of any party which also won seats in 2019, which I *think* almost proves that they will inevitably win a majority before long.
What's happening here is he's abandoning the minority government that is mainly made up of his own party and letting the chips fall where they may. Question is why he is doing that. He doesn't need to.
In 2022 most Les Republicain voters voted for Macron and his liberal centrist party in round two against Le Pen and her party on the far right and Melenchon and his block on the socialist left.
I think she holds by low thousands (2 to 3)
How about the old expresserati favourite Orban: "Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party is on track to receive its worst ever result in a European Parliament election, after early results showed a new challenger took nearly 30 percent of the vote Sunday."
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-european-election-results-2024-hungary-viktor-orban-fidesz-party-peter-magyar-tisza-party/
Another expresserati favourite Geert Wilders...
"Geert Wilders overtaken by centre left in EU elections"
https://www.ft.com/content/cc63230d-12b4-4826-ac64-7624e5ba09f8
The populist right keeps falling flat on its nose because it promises the sky..... this, to me, encapsulates the problem with populism... it refuses to be realistic and pragmatic.... man, it would be way more dangerous if it was - but it isn't. And if it was it would cease to be populist. That is what is going on in the UK too. The ukippification of the tory party (which failed and has now become a retreat to reform) has revealed abysmal governance and a focus on symbolic policies to signal ideology rather than improving people's lives.....
Just like britain probably needed its brexit experience to get past its exceptionalism.... I suspect france is probably headed that way too.... but the populists usually burn up on their encounter with governance.... so hopefully it wont last.
Remember many far right voters will be working class whites who in the past might have voted Labour, Socialist or Social Democrat but would never vote centre right
Similar to the white working class former Democrats in the US rustbelt who voted for Trump
The idea is that he pulls back the curtain on them, points out the lack of clothes on the emperor as governing isn’t easy, whinging is, and governing in difficult times is, as we’ve seen in the UK very har and harder still if your party has lots of nuts.
So he’s going for a few years of shit to avoid long term super-shit.
Well that’s the theory.
I'm irrationally proud that back in the 60s a Glasgow biker gang, the Blue Angels, ran the Hell's Angels out of town, Glasgow being HA free to this day. An aged founder member lives up the road from me, still has a couple of Harley's outside his tenement flat. No one lays a finger on them needless to say.
Opinium must mark all responses as 'Reform 10/10' or they'll make baby Jesus cry
What such a tactic often does is serves to legitimise that party as a party of government, and it allows it to wrestle the narrative from you. It’s brave to expect a party just entering government to crash and burn in 3 years - similar to the conversations we’ve had around Labour winning here, there will be a certain amount of benefit of the doubt given.
And I think one of the reasons MLP has failed at winning the presidency so far is that there are simply a group of voters to whom the cordon sanitaire still holds. Once RN get into power, there is no guarantee that feeling will still exist.
It was more I did a search for Richmond as the market wasn't in an alphabetical order.
I struggle to see how the populist right can be defeated even by a cross-party or cross-society attack.
I also don't think the prospects for Conservatives are quite so dire. Having suspended my lurking on pb for several years until this general election, I'm heartened (as someone much further to the left) by how many one-nation tory posters remain. They haven't drifted to the increasingly populist right, they've remained true to their original principles. They stand for things I understand and respect (and sometimes disagree with). And their views are surely representative of a large proportion of the population.
Once a Conservative party successfully reestablishes itself - as surely it must - it will find it has support.
We are, thankfully, not at a stage in our politics where Trumpian post-truth idiocy infects us so that any populist losing means that the system was cooked against them.
Murdos separate party plan incoming..........
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49655-general-election-2024-which-new-policies-do-people-support
If he had, GBNews and TalkTv would have been provided exactly the same service that Fox News in America has for decades, gradually weakening the democratic structure.
Brexit has crippled the Tories, maybe even killed them, but it is the populists that have to own it.
https://x.com/GdnPolitics/status/1800041596752404933?s=19
I agree on the narrow point of Farage, he is probably disliked by too many, he is very Marmite. I cannot see a successful Tory-Reform party led by him, it would have to be a Tory and he'd be second in command
Those who wish to write a thread on the European Parliament Elections can and I'm told there's a half decent writer in our menagerie.
As for the current topic, it's going to be fascinating - if the Conservatives do manage to finish clear second in terms of seats and votes then we'll be back on the usual treadmill of wondering how long it will take the Party to get back to power. After all, despite one of the greatest global financial upheavals since 1945, they couldn't win a majority in 2010 so who knows h,ow long it might take if they are starting 250 or more seats behind Labour?
Let's head to the next circle of hell - second in terms of votes, third in terms of seats. That would be an unprecedented position for the Conservatives - how would they react to being "the third party" in terms of seats but still second in terms of votes? I doubt we'd see a damascene conversion to electoral change but it would be uncomfortable for the party and they might take time to adapt to their chastened circumstances.
Down we go - third in terms of votes, third or even fourth in terms of seats. This is where it gets existential - a Conservative Party reduced to 20-30 seats would be vulnerable to Reform assuming the latter gets more votes but fewer seats. It's possible Reform would be second in a number of Labour seats and they would be able to claim they were in a better position to reduce the enormous Labour majority.
The Conservatives wouldn't just be a southern rump, they'd likely be a rural rump, chased out of almost all the major towns and cities (and let's not forget their local Government presence has declined as well). The idea of joining forces with or an electoral pact with Reform would be hugely attractive.
From 1945 to the early 1980s we had a duopoly where Labour and Conservatives split 85-95% of the vote between them - that changed with the coming of the Alliance and in both 1983 and 1987 you had the Conservatives in the low 40s and the Labour/Alliance vote around or just over 50% which under FPTP rewarded the Conservatives handsomely.
That continued up to 2015 - the winning party polled less than the second and third parties combined. The implosion of the LDs in 2015 briefly restored the duopoly but now we seem to have moved to a position where you have a main party (Labour) and four other parties (Conservative, LD, Reform and Green) and the vote proportion is roughly low 40s to around of just over 50 so much as it was with the three main parties (Con, Lab and Alliance) in the 1980s and early 90s.
The fragmentation of the second and third party votes is punished even more in FPTP than the fragmentation of the third party votes on their own. I put Labour 35%, Conservative 23%, Reform 15%, LD 12% and Green 7% into Electoral Calculus - Labour still has a majority of 138.
I genuinely thought that was a typo or autocorrect for Putin, when I first looked.