Could the Conservatives Really Come Third? – politicalbetting.com

System · June 7

Could the Conservatives Really Come Third? – politicalbetting.com

Political earthquakes are infrequent, but they do happen.

rcs1000 · June 7

First! First! First!

eek · June 7

Posts to which the answer is Yes...

I assume you mean most seats without Labour...

I still think Reform 0 seats is a better bet (9/2)

DM_Andy · June 7

Could? Yes. Will? I still don't believe it.

Dumbosaurus · June 7

Reform is currently 5.25-7.25 on the spreads.

That's a great sell with someone else's money.

I'm hoping though we go crazy and it gets up to 20 or something so the risk of selling it is worth it with [b]my[/b] money.

rcs1000 · June 7

FWIW, the 3-1 on the LibDems to come second doesn't appeal to me. That seems generous for a party which is hovering around the 10% mark.

Jonathan · June 7

If they work hard and don’t make any more unforced mistakes, but it won’t be easy.

williamglenn · June 7

kinabalu said:
Just to say, I don't want a humungous Labour majority at the price of empowering Farage. I'll take the vanilla landslide.

The realignment of British politics will take two stages:

- Stage One: Destroy the Tories and give Labour a big majority with gains for the Lib Dems and Reform
- Stage Two: Destroy the Labour Party and re-establish a Liberal vs right-wing two-party system

londonpubman · June 7

CON in absolutely desperate trouble now

3rd or indeed 4th in terms of seats a real possibility

RochdalePioneers · June 7

Could they come third here in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East?

Possibly. Its going to be fun trying to make it happen...

HYUFD · June 7

Now of course the Canadian Conservatives are heading back to power on current polls under Poilievre and Scottish Labour are set to win most seats in Scotland again and take lots of SNP seats. So even a massive landslide defeat does not prevent you winning again once the pendulum turns.

Though under FPTP a split right won't win, hence the Canadian Conservatives had to merge with the Canadian Reform Party to form today's Conservative Party of Canada to have a chance of government again. Under PR centre right and populist right parties can stand separate candidates still and both win seats and come together again to try and form a government after the election, as they now do in Italy, Sweden, Israel, New Zealand, the Netherlands and Spain for example.

rcs1000 · June 7

Dumbosaurus said:
Reform is currently 5.25-7.25 on the spreads.

That's a great sell with someone else's money.

I'm hoping though we go crazy and it gets up to 20 or something so the risk of selling it is worth it with [b]my[/b] money.

I think that's a buy, because it's very asymmetrical risk-reward. Yep, the median outcome is probably 1 or 2 seats. But the Conservatives keep tripping over their feet, then it's far from impossible that they and the Conservatives end up in the high teens, in which case 30, 40 or even 60 seats is possible. (See Canada 1993.)

Alanbrooke · June 7

rcs1000 said:
First! First! First!

Mark 9:35

HYUFD · June 7

williamglenn said:

kinabalu said:
Just to say, I don't want a humungous Labour majority at the price of empowering Farage. I'll take the vanilla landslide.
The realignment of British politics will take two stages:

- Stage One: Destroy the Tories and give Labour a big majority with gains for the Lib Dems and Reform
- Stage Two: Destroy the Labour Party and re-establish a Liberal vs right-wing two-party system

Unless Corbynites take over Labour again hard to see the LDs having any chance of being the main party of the centre left again

williamglenn · June 7

Incidentally, did everyone know that Ed Davey was a hero?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/ed-davey-the-night-i-pulled-a-woman-from-the-tracks-as-a-train-hurtled-towards-us-7534767.html

Ed Davey: 'The night I pulled a woman from the tracks as a train hurtled towards us'

rcs1000 · June 7

williamglenn said:
Incidentally, did everyone know that Ed Davey was a hero?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/ed-davey-the-night-i-pulled-a-woman-from-the-tracks-as-a-train-hurtled-towards-us-7534767.html

Ed Davey: 'The night I pulled a woman from the tracks as a train hurtled towards us'

Who?

Andy_JS · June 7

The Tories certainly won't come third in terms of seats. Vote share is more of a possibility.

rcs1000 · June 7

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:
First! First! First!
Mark 9:35

"Let he who is without sin cast the first bet"?

nico679 · June 7

Maybe tonight’s debate might have some fireworks and push D Day Gate off tomorrows front pages .

Mordaunt might do well and help her own chances .

rcs1000 · June 7

Andy_JS said:
The Tories certainly won't come third in terms of seats. Vote share is more of a possibility.

You can sell that at 1.4 on Betfair if you're certain.

PedestrianRock · June 7

rcs1000 said:
FWIW, the 3-1 on the LibDems to come second doesn't appeal to me. That seems generous for a party which is hovering around the 10% mark.

their vote is much more efficient though than REFUK

boulay · June 7

They can come third, however the way this election has gone so far anything could happen. The king dies and there’s a delay and the time and prominence of Rishi (obvs he will duck out of the wake but do the funeral) helps the Tories. A big row could blow up with Labour discipline between far left candidates getting high on the impending landslide so think they can say whatever they want.

The manifestos could be analysed by political journalists between gossiping and someone might notice a fatal flaw.

Taylor Swift might get jiggy with Ed Dave’s who smashes the youth vote.

But otherwise likelihood is Tories recovering to a poor second and Labour romping home like Seabiscuit.

Andy_JS · June 7

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
The Tories certainly won't come third in terms of seats. Vote share is more of a possibility.
You can sell that at 1.4 on Betfair if you're certain.

I am pretty certain of it. Betfair punters proving they don't know what they're doing wrt particular market. They aren't going to go below 75 seats and that'll be enough for second place.

williamglenn · June 7

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

kinabalu said:
Just to say, I don't want a humungous Labour majority at the price of empowering Farage. I'll take the vanilla landslide.
The realignment of British politics will take two stages:

- Stage One: Destroy the Tories and give Labour a big majority with gains for the Lib Dems and Reform
- Stage Two: Destroy the Labour Party and re-establish a Liberal vs right-wing two-party system
Unless Corbynites take over Labour again hard to see the LDs having any chance of being the main party of the centre left again

You're thinking in terms of the previous divide. Perhaps think of it as Anglo-Saxon England (Lib Dems) vs Danelaw England (Reform).

Nigelb · June 7

Clearing out an embarrassingly large mound of paper in my office today, around 2/3rds of the way down, I came across an old copy of Computer Weekly, which I must have deliberately saved at the time.

The date, 12-18 May 2009.
The front page" "Bankruptcy, prosecution, disrupted livelihoods.
Postmasters** tell their story."

CW comment:
"The company insists the IT system has been exonerated and fully tested, but we would contend that does not mean local problems are impossible.
The Post Office has a responsibility to fully investigate users' concerns, and the postmasters' complaints may have left* a question mark over whether it does this. There is also the question of whether the Post Office has allowed the postmasters to pay for mistakes produced by the technology...."

(*That 'may have" sounds like in-house lawyer speak.)

If a pleb like me twigged to it, it's impossible that directors were not aware of the likelihood of a problem.

(**Lee Castleton
Jo Hamilton
Noel Thomas
Amar Bajaj
Alan Bates
Alan Brown
Julie Ford)

MattW · June 7

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:
Incidentally, did everyone know that Ed Davey was a hero?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/ed-davey-the-night-i-pulled-a-woman-from-the-tracks-as-a-train-hurtled-towards-us-7534767.html

Ed Davey: 'The night I pulled a woman from the tracks as a train hurtled towards us'
Who?

It beats the Nick Cleggover narrative,

"The 30th night I pulled a woman from ... something something something."

Nigelb · June 7

rcs1000 said:
First! First! First!

That's exceedingly unlikely.
It's not impossible they scrape second, I suppose.

williamglenn · June 7

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:
Incidentally, did everyone know that Ed Davey was a hero?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/ed-davey-the-night-i-pulled-a-woman-from-the-tracks-as-a-train-hurtled-towards-us-7534767.html

Ed Davey: 'The night I pulled a woman from the tracks as a train hurtled towards us'
Who?

Just some random woman.

Scott_xP · June 7

Richi is lucky this hasn't happened to him. yet.

@BidensWins

BREAKING: President Biden just released this campaign ad slamming Donald Trump for knowing nothing about patriotism, service or sacrifice. Retweet so all Americans know how un-American Donald Trump really is.

https://x.com/BidensWins/status/1799113515648897096

Nigelb · June 7

williamglenn said:

kinabalu said:
Just to say, I don't want a humungous Labour majority at the price of empowering Farage. I'll take the vanilla landslide.
The realignment of British politics will take two stages:

- Stage One: Destroy the Tories and give Labour a big majority with gains for the Lib Dems and Reform
- Stage Two: Destroy the Labour Party and re-establish a Liberal vs right-wing two-party system

Stage 3, PR.

boulay · June 7

williamglenn said:
Incidentally, did everyone know that Ed Davey was a hero?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/ed-davey-the-night-i-pulled-a-woman-from-the-tracks-as-a-train-hurtled-towards-us-7534767.html

Ed Davey: 'The night I pulled a woman from the tracks as a train hurtled towards us'

Makes me think of this.

rcs1000 · June 7

PedestrianRock said:

rcs1000 said:
FWIW, the 3-1 on the LibDems to come second doesn't appeal to me. That seems generous for a party which is hovering around the 10% mark.
their vote is much more efficient though than REFUK

Sure it is.

But I think in the event of Con-Reform crossover, then it is far from impossible that Reform gets 50 seats, while the Conservatives get a dozen or less.

PedestrianRock · June 7

I have been betting and tipping on this market all week and emphatically agree. I was heavy on it (and the Lib Dems in the same market) initially as a trading bet but I’m contemplating holding them till the end more and more.

On seat total, the Lib Dems (4.1) are better placed but REFUK (14.0) might still be better value.

However I am less keen on the vote share bet just because REFUK ended up with about 100 fewer candidates in the end I think, which might hurt their chances a good chunk. Odds don’t look as appealing.

DM_Andy · June 7

FPT:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Official Labour Party poster.

Seems like it's not, it's a mockup done by Ben Golik
https://x.com/bengolik/status/1799051343027728469

An advertising mockup with the headline He left them on the beaches, with a silhouette of a small figure of Rishi Sunak running away.

MattW · June 7

rcs1000 said:
First! First! First!

Thank-you for the header.

I wonder what level the Reform / Farage ceiling of vote share is at?

(BTW just to make sure you are aware: I sent you a possible header for the weekend earlier via PM. Up to you whether to us it, but it is at least as brilliant as any by @TSE , without the puns.)

PedestrianRock · June 7

rcs1000 said:

PedestrianRock said:

rcs1000 said:
FWIW, the 3-1 on the LibDems to come second doesn't appeal to me. That seems generous for a party which is hovering around the 10% mark.
their vote is much more efficient though than REFUK
Sure it is.

But I think in the event of Con-Reform crossover, then it is far from impossible that Reform gets 50 seats, while the Conservatives get a dozen or less.

That’s a good point. Crossover could catapult them ahead of the Lib Dem’s under the right circumstances.

I’m heavily in on both and unsure whether to pivot to backing one horse or the other, or just to stay relatively evenly split.

SeaShantyIrish2 · June 7

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:
First! First! First!
Mark 9:35
"Let he who is without sin cast the first bet"?

Was this what Jesus said to the Roman soldiers dividing his garments by casting lots? (See Matthew 27:35)

williamglenn · June 7

rcs1000 said:

PedestrianRock said:

rcs1000 said:
FWIW, the 3-1 on the LibDems to come second doesn't appeal to me. That seems generous for a party which is hovering around the 10% mark.
their vote is much more efficient though than REFUK
Sure it is.

But I think in the event of Con-Reform crossover, then it is far from impossible that Reform gets 50 seats, while the Conservatives get a dozen or less.

Yes, vote efficiency isn't a linear function. Their vote might be incredibly inefficient up to around 15% but then suddenly you'll find that seats fall to them all over the place.

rcs1000 · June 7

DM_Andy said:
FPT:
BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Official Labour Party poster.
Seems like it's not, it's a mockup done by Ben Golik
https://x.com/bengolik/status/1799051343027728469
An advertising mockup with the headline He left them on the beaches, with a silhouette of a small figure of Rishi Sunak running away.

You know, I think a more effective advert would manage to combine small boats full of migrants landing on UK beaches and his skipping the D Day event.

rcs1000 · June 7

MattW said:

rcs1000 said:
First! First! First!
Thank-you for the header.

I wonder what level the Reform / Farage ceiling of vote share is at?

(BTW just to make sure you are aware: I sent you a possible header for the weekend earlier via PM. Up to you whether to us it, but it is at least as brilliant as any by @TSE , without the puns.)

Ah, could you email it to me. It's my username at gmail.

nico679 · June 7

Sky News are reporting a poll conducted today .

75% of over 65s thought it was somewhat or completely unacceptable that Sunak left early .

Overall 65% polled said the same . Only 8% thought it acceptable .

wooliedyed · June 7

Afternoon all, back from an afternoon with the other Woolies. Safe to say he's arsed this up royally. A very angry Pa Woolie and big Sis woolie just utterly gobsmacked at what he'd done, cannot understand how, why or what on earth he thought he'd gain from it. She's not particularly news savvy but had heard this this morning (in contrast when I mentioned milkshake girl later on she said 'huh? Who? What?)
What an utter prick of a man

Andy_JS · June 7

Candidates in Starmer's seat, Holborn & St Pancras.

"Brick, Nick the Incredible Flying - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Clinton, Charlie - Liberal Democrats
Feinstein, Andrew Josef - no description
Islam, Wais - Independent
Kumar, Senthil - Independent
Malik, Mehreen - The Conservative Party Candidate
Poynton, John Edmund - UK Independence Party
Roberts, David - Reform UK
Scripps, Tom - Socialist Equality Party
Smith, Bobby Elmo - no description
Stansell, David Robert - Green Party
Starmer, Keir - Labour Party"

https://www.camden.gov.uk/documents/d/guest/notice-of-poll-and-sits-of-ps-holborn-and-st-pancras-1

Nigelb · June 7

It's not impossible that the seven dwarfs debate might decide the outcome of this.
But Farage seems less likely to rhetorically destroy his opponents than vice versa.

rcs1000 · June 7

MattW said:

rcs1000 said:
First! First! First!
Thank-you for the header.

I wonder what level the Reform / Farage ceiling of vote share is at?

(BTW just to make sure you are aware: I sent you a possible header for the weekend earlier via PM. Up to you whether to us it, but it is at least as brilliant as any by @TSE , without the puns.)

As far as ceiling goes: well I think the answer is that if the Conservative Party didn't exist, then half its voters would go to Reform, a quarter wouldn't vote, and most of the remaining quarter would go LibDem (with a few Labour thrown in there for good measure). Of course, the Conservative Party does exist, and some voters will never switch, so the current ceiling is probably about 25%.

rcs1000 · June 7

Nigelb said:
It's not impossible that the seven dwarfs debate might decide the outcome of this.
But Farage seems less likely to rhetorically destroy his opponents than vice versa.

I think a lot depends on if he has a couple of pints to calm his nerves before the debate...

Andy_JS · June 7

Confirmation of no Tory candidate in Rotherham.

It was going to be Laila Cunningham (of Kensington and Bayswater) but she withdrew her nomination for some reason.

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3885/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-for-rotherham&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK

rcs1000 · June 7

Andy_JS said:
Confirmation of no Tory candidate in Rotherham.

It was going to be Laila Cunningham (of Kensington and Bayswater) but she withdrew her nomination for some reason.

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3885/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-for-rotherham&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK

Did the Conservatives find a candidate for Hemel Hempstead in the end?

kle4 · June 7

They could. They won't, but it may be closer than they like.

Nigelb · June 7

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:
It's not impossible that the seven dwarfs debate might decide the outcome of this.
But Farage seems less likely to rhetorically destroy his opponents than vice versa.
I think a lot depends on if he has a couple of pints to calm his nerves before the debate...

... or eight.

SeaShantyIrish2 · June 7

So is there confirmation yet re: the full list of UK GE 2024 candidates?

And if so, is it posted on web somewhere?

kle4 · June 7

7 candidates in my constituency, including 2 independent candidates. Fantastic stuff, last time we only had 4 total.

No fringe parties unfortunately (unless one counts Green or Reform).

maaarsh · June 7

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

PedestrianRock said:

rcs1000 said:
FWIW, the 3-1 on the LibDems to come second doesn't appeal to me. That seems generous for a party which is hovering around the 10% mark.
their vote is much more efficient though than REFUK
Sure it is.

But I think in the event of Con-Reform crossover, then it is far from impossible that Reform gets 50 seats, while the Conservatives get a dozen or less.
Yes, vote efficiency isn't a linear function. Their vote might be incredibly inefficient up to around 15% but then suddenly you'll find that seats fall to them all over the place.

Playing around on some of the seat projection calculators, consolidating the entire Tory/Reform vote either way and Reform got slightly more seats overall - clearly predictive power of those models will be awful at such extremes but confirms the point - their vote is only inefficient until it hits a tipping point.

SeaShantyIrish2 · June 7

wooliedyed said:
Afternoon all, back from an afternoon with the other Woolies. Safe to say he's arsed this up royally. A very angry Pa Woolie and big Sis woolie just utterly gobsmacked at what he'd done, cannot understand how, why or what on earth he thought he'd gain from it. She's not particularly news savvy but had heard this this morning (in contrast when I mentioned milkshake girl later on she said 'huh? Who? What?)
What an utter prick of a man

Sunak did apologize, like you said he should. Does that cut any ice with you & yours?

eek · June 7

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
Confirmation of no Tory candidate in Rotherham.

It was going to be Laila Cunningham (of Kensington and Bayswater) but she withdrew her nomination for some reason.

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3885/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-for-rotherham&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
Did the Conservatives find a candidate for Hemel Hempstead in the end?

Yes the former Tory party council leader - Andrew Williams

See https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799084840295489729

In theory a safe Tory seat, in reality I suspect the Lib Dems could grab it..

Peter_the_Punter · June 7

@eek FPT

Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.

A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.

As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.

MattW · June 7

rottenborough said:

Oliver Pridmore
@OliverPridmore

NEW: The final list of general election candidates are being published and something rather strange has cropped up for Broxtowe.

Dr John Doddy, a Conservative member of Nottinghamshire County Council, is running as an independent against his party's candidate - Darren Henry.

https://x.com/OliverPridmore

That looks like a can of worms.

Whistle blowers at his Medical Centre by the looks of it, Darren Henry being the husband of the defenestrated-by-voters Police and Crime Commissioner. All sorts of possibilities and reasons for him standing, in addition to the normal ones.

https://hickinglanemedicalcentre.co.uk/

kle4 · June 7

Andy_JS said:
Confirmation of no Tory candidate in Rotherham.

It was going to be Laila Cunningham (of Kensington and Bayswater) but she withdrew her nomination for some reason.

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3885/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-for-rotherham&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK

Inexcusable for a major party not to be able to find someone. It's not like you need to find someone who lives in the area to stand, and even at short notice getting 10 people to propose any old duffer you name should not be impossible.

wooliedyed · June 7

Do we know how many seats Reform made in the end? Crick said 520 to 590 region (85 to 90%)

Nigelb · June 7

This is getting ridiculous.

Clarence Thomas has YET AGAIN amended his financial disclosure form ONLY AFTER getting caught by ProPublica. Thomas must RESIGN.
https://x.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1799124842115113338

Andy_JS · June 7

wooliedyed said:
Do we know how many seats Reform made in the end? Crick said 520 to 590 region (85 to 90%)

I've noticed two so far, in East Grinstead and Cheltenham.

https://www.midsussex.gov.uk/media/uxintccw/east-grinstead-and-uckfield-sopn-nop.pdf
https://www.cheltenham.gov.uk/info/17/elections_and_voting/1834/statement_of_persons_nominated_and_notice_of_poll_for_the_uk_parliamentary_election_july_2024

kle4 · June 7

maaarsh said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

PedestrianRock said:

rcs1000 said:
FWIW, the 3-1 on the LibDems to come second doesn't appeal to me. That seems generous for a party which is hovering around the 10% mark.
their vote is much more efficient though than REFUK
Sure it is.

But I think in the event of Con-Reform crossover, then it is far from impossible that Reform gets 50 seats, while the Conservatives get a dozen or less.
Yes, vote efficiency isn't a linear function. Their vote might be incredibly inefficient up to around 15% but then suddenly you'll find that seats fall to them all over the place.
Playing around on some of the seat projection calculators, consolidating the entire Tory/Reform vote either way and Reform got slightly more seats overall - clearly predictive power of those models will be awful at such extremes but confirms the point - their vote is only inefficient until it hits a tipping point.

UKIP always seemed to have the strategy of getting enough votes total even with little ground game that they reached the tipping point where they would suddenly get a whole bunch of seats, as contrasted with the Green strategy of hyper targeting certain areas to get a few MPs despite a low overall percentage.

UKIP didn't quite make it, but Reform have a shot at breaking through in several places, even if dreams of replacing the Tories may not come to fruition.

eek · June 7

Peter_the_Punter said:
@eek FPT

Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.

A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.

As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.

I grabbed it at 5-1 because by the time I saw your post the 7/1 had gone to 9/2.

HYUFD · June 7

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
Confirmation of no Tory candidate in Rotherham.

It was going to be Laila Cunningham (of Kensington and Bayswater) but she withdrew her nomination for some reason.

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3885/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-for-rotherham&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
Did the Conservatives find a candidate for Hemel Hempstead in the end?

Not quite sure what happened there, Jaymey McIvor who was the candidate is an Epping Forest councillor

Peter_the_Punter · June 7

rcs1000 said:
FWIW, the 3-1 on the LibDems to come second doesn't appeal to me. That seems generous for a party which is hovering around the 10% mark.

You thought they were a sell on the spreads when they were on 36, Robert. I agreed with you, so I've got nothing to shout about, but I can't see this Tory collapse as anything but good news for the Yellow Peril.

I'm on.

wooliedyed · June 7

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

wooliedyed said:
Afternoon all, back from an afternoon with the other Woolies. Safe to say he's arsed this up royally. A very angry Pa Woolie and big Sis woolie just utterly gobsmacked at what he'd done, cannot understand how, why or what on earth he thought he'd gain from it. She's not particularly news savvy but had heard this this morning (in contrast when I mentioned milkshake girl later on she said 'huh? Who? What?)
What an utter prick of a man
Sunak did apologize, like you said he should. Does that cut any ice with you & yours?

I did not say he should apologise as far as I can recall? Not really though is the answer, it's no different to Brown rocking up at Mrs Duffy's door, damage done. I mean it's better than him saying 'yeah? And?' But its done now, and the more I think on it the more he clearly cannot be arsed. He needs to make way for someone who cares.

DM_Andy · June 7

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
Confirmation of no Tory candidate in Rotherham.

It was going to be Laila Cunningham (of Kensington and Bayswater) but she withdrew her nomination for some reason.

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3885/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-for-rotherham&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
Did the Conservatives find a candidate for Hemel Hempstead in the end?
Not quite sure what happened there, Jaymey McIvor who was the candidate is an Epping Forest councillor

He got Russell-Moyled earlier today, lots of discussion in the previous thread. No-one knows what the allegation is.

maaarsh · June 7

wooliedyed said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

wooliedyed said:
Afternoon all, back from an afternoon with the other Woolies. Safe to say he's arsed this up royally. A very angry Pa Woolie and big Sis woolie just utterly gobsmacked at what he'd done, cannot understand how, why or what on earth he thought he'd gain from it. She's not particularly news savvy but had heard this this morning (in contrast when I mentioned milkshake girl later on she said 'huh? Who? What?)
What an utter prick of a man
Sunak did apologize, like you said he should. Does that cut any ice with you & yours?
I did not say he should apologise as far as I can recall? Not really though is the answer, it's no different to Brown rocking up at Mrs Duffy's door, damage done. I mean it's better than him saying 'yeah? And?' But its done now, and the more I think on it the more he clearly cannot be arsed. He needs to make way for someone who cares.

Yep far too late now. He's supposed to be the leader of the party of the 'Somewheres' and he's outted himself as an extreme 'Anywhere'.

Anabobazina · June 7

Andy_JS said:
Confirmation of no Tory candidate in Rotherham.

It was going to be Laila Cunningham (of Kensington and Bayswater) but she withdrew her nomination for some reason.

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3885/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-for-rotherham&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK

She preferred to spend June in west London rather than chasing a lost cause in Rotherham?

Andy_JS · June 7

SeaShantyIrish2 said:
So is there confirmation yet re: the full list of UK GE 2024 candidates?

And if so, is it posted on web somewhere?

There's no official list, it relies on amateurs and news organisations to compile a spreadsheet with all the candidates. At the last 4 or 5 elections I did it myself and it was quite popular, even with journalists. The Press Association is probably the closest to an official list.

We probably won't get a full slate for a 48 hours because usually there are a few councils who can't be bothered to publish it as soon as they could do.

wooliedyed · June 7

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
Confirmation of no Tory candidate in Rotherham.

It was going to be Laila Cunningham (of Kensington and Bayswater) but she withdrew her nomination for some reason.

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3885/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-for-rotherham&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
Did the Conservatives find a candidate for Hemel Hempstead in the end?
Not quite sure what happened there, Jaymey McIvor who was the candidate is an Epping Forest councillor

An accusation was made with accompanying photograph I believe

eek · June 7

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
Confirmation of no Tory candidate in Rotherham.

It was going to be Laila Cunningham (of Kensington and Bayswater) but she withdrew her nomination for some reason.

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3885/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-for-rotherham&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
Did the Conservatives find a candidate for Hemel Hempstead in the end?
Yes the former Tory party council leader - Andrew Williams

See https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799084840295489729

In theory a safe Tory seat, in reality I suspect the Lib Dems could grab it..

to late to edit - I'm wrong this seat is like High Wycombe so heading Labour, it's the surrounding seats that will be heading Lib Dem..

rcs1000 · June 7

Nigelb said:
This is getting ridiculous.

Clarence Thomas has YET AGAIN amended his financial disclosure form ONLY AFTER getting caught by ProPublica. Thomas must RESIGN.
https://x.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1799124842115113338

It's not a good look for someone who is the business of administering justice.

kle4 · June 7

Nigelb said:
This is getting ridiculous.

Clarence Thomas has YET AGAIN amended his financial disclosure form ONLY AFTER getting caught by ProPublica. Thomas must RESIGN.
https://x.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1799124842115113338

The man is quite clearly as corrupt as they come. And for reasons of politics and preserving the power of the Supreme Court from other branches of government, the rest of them will never do anything about it - holding people accountable is a very foreign concept now.

If this is even half correct it would be ludicrous how forgiving of receiving 'gifts' they are - the problem of the appearance of impropriety being a problem only applies to lesser judges apparently.

PedestrianRock · June 7

Having thought all week about how pivotal today would be, I’m now a little worried that Mordaunt will do very decently, and hurt my trading bets in the process. I really wish it was Sunak up there instead.

Andy_JS · June 7

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
Confirmation of no Tory candidate in Rotherham.

It was going to be Laila Cunningham (of Kensington and Bayswater) but she withdrew her nomination for some reason.

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3885/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-for-rotherham&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
Did the Conservatives find a candidate for Hemel Hempstead in the end?

Not sure yet, the council hasn't published the SOPN.

Cicero · June 7

eek said:

Peter_the_Punter said:
@eek FPT

Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.

A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.

As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.
I grabbed it at 5-1 because by the time I saw your post the 7/1 had gone to 9/2.

If the Lib Dems are winning Tewkesbury, they are clearly going to win Cheltenham and must be looking pretty good for South Cotswolds too. Labour will get Stroud and Forest of Dean. Gloucester is open (the Lib Dems won the locals, but it has been Labour in the past). Could the Tories really be reduced to only one seat in Gloucestershire? If so, then Surrey and several other Wessex counties are also in play.

Luckyguy1983 · June 7

I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

rcs1000 · June 7

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:
This is getting ridiculous.

Clarence Thomas has YET AGAIN amended his financial disclosure form ONLY AFTER getting caught by ProPublica. Thomas must RESIGN.
https://x.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1799124842115113338
The man is quite clearly as corrupt as they come. And for reasons of politics and preserving the power of the Supreme Court from other branches of government, the rest of them will never do anything about it - holding people accountable is a very foreign concept now.

If this is even half correct it would be ludicrous how forgiving of receiving 'gifts' they are - the problem of the appearance of impropriety being a problem only applies to lesser judges apparently.

What is so sad is that American politics has become so polarized that half the country is willing to ignore this, because he's "their guy".

ToryJim · June 7

the Conservative party has shelved efforts to pull together a letter from major big business chiefs backing the party in the run-up to the election, in the latest sign the campaign is struggling

https://x.com/pickardje/status/1799125179307794593?s=46

Heart of stone etc

Andy_JS · June 7

eek said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
Confirmation of no Tory candidate in Rotherham.

It was going to be Laila Cunningham (of Kensington and Bayswater) but she withdrew her nomination for some reason.

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3885/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-for-rotherham&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
Did the Conservatives find a candidate for Hemel Hempstead in the end?
Yes the former Tory party council leader - Andrew Williams

See https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799084840295489729

In theory a safe Tory seat, in reality I suspect the Lib Dems could grab it..

It would be a Labour win, not a LD. Labour held the seat from 1997 to 2005.

Cleitophon · June 7

Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.

All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.

The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.

Hari Seldon has spoken

Andy_JS · June 7

Anabobazina said:

Andy_JS said:
Confirmation of no Tory candidate in Rotherham.

It was going to be Laila Cunningham (of Kensington and Bayswater) but she withdrew her nomination for some reason.

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3885/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-for-rotherham&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
She preferred to spend June in west London rather than chasing a lost cause in Rotherham?

Councillor for Lancaster Gate. I bet Conservative central office is furious with this situation.

https://www.westminsterconservatives.com/people/laila-cunningham

https://x.com/policylaila

rcs1000 · June 7

Peter_the_Punter said:

rcs1000 said:
FWIW, the 3-1 on the LibDems to come second doesn't appeal to me. That seems generous for a party which is hovering around the 10% mark.
You thought they were a sell on the spreads when they were on 36, Robert. I agreed with you, so I've got nothing to shout about, but I can't see this Tory collapse as anything but good news for the Yellow Peril.

I'm on.

Oh yes: there's no doubt that the rise of Reform is manna from heaven for the LibDems. Ed Davey is a lucky general.

kle4 · June 7

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:
This is getting ridiculous.

Clarence Thomas has YET AGAIN amended his financial disclosure form ONLY AFTER getting caught by ProPublica. Thomas must RESIGN.
https://x.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1799124842115113338
The man is quite clearly as corrupt as they come. And for reasons of politics and preserving the power of the Supreme Court from other branches of government, the rest of them will never do anything about it - holding people accountable is a very foreign concept now.

If this is even half correct it would be ludicrous how forgiving of receiving 'gifts' they are - the problem of the appearance of impropriety being a problem only applies to lesser judges apparently.

What is so sad is that American politics has become so polarized that half the country is willing to ignore this, because he's "their guy".

And Supreme Court justice is such a powerful position, it's worth nearly any price to keep your guys and do anything it takes to keep any appointment of a new one under your own President. Decades of mostly reliable political backing on the court (yes, many cases will not split on party lines, but the big controversial ones often will).

ToryJim · June 7

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
Confirmation of no Tory candidate in Rotherham.

It was going to be Laila Cunningham (of Kensington and Bayswater) but she withdrew her nomination for some reason.

https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3885/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-for-rotherham&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
Did the Conservatives find a candidate for Hemel Hempstead in the end?
Not quite sure what happened there, Jaymey McIvor who was the candidate is an Epping Forest councillor

Last minute LRM style allegations to CCHQ who have suspended his membership and banned him from standing or campaigning in the General Election.

Andy_JS · June 7

Tories described Rotherham as "unwinnable", but in fact it's number 40 on their target list out of 268.

https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

kle4 · June 7

ToryJim said:
the Conservative party has shelved efforts to pull together a letter from major big business chiefs backing the party in the run-up to the election, in the latest sign the campaign is struggling

https://x.com/pickardje/status/1799125179307794593?s=46

Heart of stone etc

On the plus side it avoids the standard situation of the letter unravelling after it is published when it is revealed some of the signatories are wrong 'uns, others did not agree to sign it, and its contents are picked apart.

kle4 · June 7

Andy_JS said:
Tories described Rotherham as "unwinnable", but in fact it's number 40 on their target list out of 268.

https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

Nothing inaccurate in their calling it unwinnable.

But of course hundreds of seats are unwinnable but get candidates from the top parties anyway.

Nigelb · June 7

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:
This is getting ridiculous.

Clarence Thomas has YET AGAIN amended his financial disclosure form ONLY AFTER getting caught by ProPublica. Thomas must RESIGN.
https://x.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1799124842115113338
The man is quite clearly as corrupt as they come. And for reasons of politics and preserving the power of the Supreme Court from other branches of government, the rest of them will never do anything about it - holding people accountable is a very foreign concept now.

If this is even half correct it would be ludicrous how forgiving of receiving 'gifts' they are - the problem of the appearance of impropriety being a problem only applies to lesser judges apparently.

Yes, I posted that yesterday.
I don't see how anyone can even begin to justify it.

williamglenn · June 7

Cleitophon said:
Why does Rishi put himself through this. I would just resign. It is tortuous to watch.....the conservatives stand humiliation and defeat must be soul crushing.

All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.

The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.

Hari Seldon has spoken

Equating the EU with liberal progressivism is a very post-Brexit British way of thinking. There's nothing inherently progressive about the integration of European countries.

ToryJim · June 7

Looks like Rishi could get quite literally binned, as the Count is standing in Richmond.

https://x.com/countbinface/status/1799119807486316592?s=46

kinabalu · June 7

williamglenn said:

kinabalu said:
Just to say, I don't want a humungous Labour majority at the price of empowering Farage. I'll take the vanilla landslide.
The realignment of British politics will take two stages:

- Stage One: Destroy the Tories and give Labour a big majority with gains for the Lib Dems and Reform
- Stage Two: Destroy the Labour Party and re-establish a Liberal vs right-wing two-party system

So Rishi is right with his warning then. Back to square one

Andy_JS · June 7

Former Labour MP for Kensington Emma Dent Coad is standing again as an independent.

https://www.rbkc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/documents/SoPN Kensington and Bayswater Constituency.pdf

"Kensington & Bayswater - 10 candidates

ADAM, Mona - Green Party
BUCHAN, Felicity - The Conservative Party Candidate
BURCA, Marc Francis - Reform UK
DENT COAD, Emma - Independent
HOUNGBO, William - Liberal Democrat
O`MAHONY, Una Marie - Party of Women
PHILLIPS, Roger David - Christian People's Alliance
POWELL, Joe - Labour Party
PRINCE ANKIT LOVE, Emperor of India - no description
STEVENS, John Christopher Courtenay - Rejoin EU"

Peter_the_Punter · June 7

Nigelb said:
Clearing out an embarrassingly large mound of paper in my office today, around 2/3rds of the way down, I came across an old copy of Computer Weekly, which I must have deliberately saved at the time.

The date, 12-18 May 2009.
The front page" "Bankruptcy, prosecution, disrupted livelihoods.
Postmasters** tell their story."

CW comment:
"The company insists the IT system has been exonerated and fully tested, but we would contend that does not mean local problems are impossible.
The Post Office has a responsibility to fully investigate users' concerns, and the postmasters' complaints may have left* a question mark over whether it does this. There is also the question of whether the Post Office has allowed the postmasters to pay for mistakes produced by the technology...."

(*That 'may have" sounds like in-house lawyer speak.)

If a pleb like me twigged to it, it's impossible that directors were not aware of the likelihood of a problem.

(**Lee Castleton
Jo Hamilton
Noel Thomas
Amar Bajaj
Alan Bates
Alan Brown
Julie Ford)

The testimony of Alice Perkins removed any doubt I previously had about this, Nigel.

They knew alright.

AramintaMoonbeamQC · June 7

FPT: Ex Tory Georgina Hill standing against Anne Marie Trevelyan as an Ind in North Northumberland, should hive off a few unhappy Con voters. If Reform stand a candidate, it could be Goodnight Berwick.

kle4 · June 7

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:
This is getting ridiculous.

Clarence Thomas has YET AGAIN amended his financial disclosure form ONLY AFTER getting caught by ProPublica. Thomas must RESIGN.
https://x.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1799124842115113338
The man is quite clearly as corrupt as they come. And for reasons of politics and preserving the power of the Supreme Court from other branches of government, the rest of them will never do anything about it - holding people accountable is a very foreign concept now.

If this is even half correct it would be ludicrous how forgiving of receiving 'gifts' they are - the problem of the appearance of impropriety being a problem only applies to lesser judges apparently.

Yes, I posted that yesterday.
I don't see how anyone can even begin to justify it.

Watch Chief Justice Roberts manage it.

I think when the first set of allegations came out it forced the Court to belatedly adopt some guidance, but the response dripped of institutional entitlement that no one has the right to criticise the Court or seek to do anything to it no matter how egregious the conduct might become.

From the outside it feels like a very unequal branch of government.

BatteryCorrectHorse · June 7

A heckler interrupts Rishi Sunak during a live TV interview to raise concerns about GP staffing

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1799129716743630892

AlsoLei · June 7

FPT:

Chris said:
Just a thought.

People have been struggling to understand several things about the D-Day affair - how Sunak could have been mad enough to leave early, why that time and date for recording the interview were suggested by the Tories, and why it was so far in advance of transmission.

It is conceivable that there was going to be an attempt by senior party figures to take control of the direction of the campaign, and that Sunak was desperate to pre-empt that by recording the interview before it could happen? Perhaps in the same way as in 1990 Thatcher rushed out and told the press she was fighting on, before her colleagues could stop her?

Consider Moonrabbit's point about the awkward position the party finds itself in after Sunak told so many lies in the debate. The D-Day interview won't be broadcast for a week, and seems to have been centred on the tax lie - which means that every senior Tory must now continue repeating it at least until the air date.

So it seems likely that the decision to do the interview was an attempt to strong-arm the party into backing his strategy. And if that's the case, it'll mean that he binned the D-Day commemoration to shore up his own position within the party.

As you say, it's his version of Thatcher's "we fight on; we fight to win!". Is there a Ken Clarke waiting in the wings to make him back down?

rcs1000 · June 7

Andy_JS said:
Former Labour MP for Kensington Emma Dent Coad is standing again as an independent.

https://www.rbkc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/documents/SoPN Kensington and Bayswater Constituency.pdf

"Kensington & Bayswater - 10 candidates

ADAM, Mona - Green Party
BUCHAN, Felicity - The Conservative Party Candidate
BURCA, Marc Francis - Reform UK
DENT COAD, Emma - Independent
HOUNGBO, William - Liberal Democrat
O`MAHONY, Una Marie - Party of Women
PHILLIPS, Roger David - Christian People's Alliance
POWELL, Joe - Labour Party
PRINCE ANKIT LOVE, Emperor of India - no description
STEVENS, John Christopher Courtenay - Rejoin EU"

I'd be staggered if she retained her deposit.

Benpointer · June 7

Luckyguy1983 said:
I find the D-day stuff a bit overblown to be honest.

Well me too in some ways, but we are not the demographic that cares intensely about such matters... the demographic that does is (was) largely the one the Tories had not lost. So I see why it is such a big deal.

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