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Could the Conservatives Really Come Third? – politicalbetting.com
Could the Conservatives Really Come Third? – politicalbetting.com
Political earthquakes are infrequent, but they do happen.
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I assume you mean most seats without Labour...
I still think Reform 0 seats is a better bet (9/2)
That's a great sell with someone else's money.
I'm hoping though we go crazy and it gets up to 20 or something so the risk of selling it is worth it with [b]my[/b] money.
- Stage One: Destroy the Tories and give Labour a big majority with gains for the Lib Dems and Reform
- Stage Two: Destroy the Labour Party and re-establish a Liberal vs right-wing two-party system
3rd or indeed 4th in terms of seats a real possibility
Possibly. Its going to be fun trying to make it happen...
Though under FPTP a split right won't win, hence the Canadian Conservatives had to merge with the Canadian Reform Party to form today's Conservative Party of Canada to have a chance of government again. Under PR centre right and populist right parties can stand separate candidates still and both win seats and come together again to try and form a government after the election, as they now do in Italy, Sweden, Israel, New Zealand, the Netherlands and Spain for example.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/ed-davey-the-night-i-pulled-a-woman-from-the-tracks-as-a-train-hurtled-towards-us-7534767.html
Ed Davey: 'The night I pulled a woman from the tracks as a train hurtled towards us'
Mordaunt might do well and help her own chances .
The manifestos could be analysed by political journalists between gossiping and someone might notice a fatal flaw.
Taylor Swift might get jiggy with Ed Dave’s who smashes the youth vote.
But otherwise likelihood is Tories recovering to a poor second and Labour romping home like Seabiscuit.
The date, 12-18 May 2009.
The front page" "Bankruptcy, prosecution, disrupted livelihoods.
Postmasters** tell their story."
CW comment:
"The company insists the IT system has been exonerated and fully tested, but we would contend that does not mean local problems are impossible.
The Post Office has a responsibility to fully investigate users' concerns, and the postmasters' complaints may have left* a question mark over whether it does this. There is also the question of whether the Post Office has allowed the postmasters to pay for mistakes produced by the technology...."
(*That 'may have" sounds like in-house lawyer speak.)
If a pleb like me twigged to it, it's impossible that directors were not aware of the likelihood of a problem.
(**Lee Castleton
Jo Hamilton
Noel Thomas
Amar Bajaj
Alan Bates
Alan Brown
Julie Ford)
"The 30th night I pulled a woman from ... something something something."
It's not impossible they scrape second, I suppose.
@BidensWins
BREAKING: President Biden just released this campaign ad slamming Donald Trump for knowing nothing about patriotism, service or sacrifice. Retweet so all Americans know how un-American Donald Trump really is.
https://x.com/BidensWins/status/1799113515648897096
But I think in the event of Con-Reform crossover, then it is far from impossible that Reform gets 50 seats, while the Conservatives get a dozen or less.
On seat total, the Lib Dems (4.1) are better placed but REFUK (14.0) might still be better value.
However I am less keen on the vote share bet just because REFUK ended up with about 100 fewer candidates in the end I think, which might hurt their chances a good chunk. Odds don’t look as appealing.
https://x.com/bengolik/status/1799051343027728469
I wonder what level the Reform / Farage ceiling of vote share is at?
(BTW just to make sure you are aware: I sent you a possible header for the weekend earlier via PM. Up to you whether to us it, but it is at least as brilliant as any by @TSE , without the puns.)
I’m heavily in on both and unsure whether to pivot to backing one horse or the other, or just to stay relatively evenly split.
75% of over 65s thought it was somewhat or completely unacceptable that Sunak left early .
Overall 65% polled said the same . Only 8% thought it acceptable .
What an utter prick of a man
"Brick, Nick the Incredible Flying - The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Clinton, Charlie - Liberal Democrats
Feinstein, Andrew Josef - no description
Islam, Wais - Independent
Kumar, Senthil - Independent
Malik, Mehreen - The Conservative Party Candidate
Poynton, John Edmund - UK Independence Party
Roberts, David - Reform UK
Scripps, Tom - Socialist Equality Party
Smith, Bobby Elmo - no description
Stansell, David Robert - Green Party
Starmer, Keir - Labour Party"
https://www.camden.gov.uk/documents/d/guest/notice-of-poll-and-sits-of-ps-holborn-and-st-pancras-1
But Farage seems less likely to rhetorically destroy his opponents than vice versa.
It was going to be Laila Cunningham (of Kensington and Bayswater) but she withdrew her nomination for some reason.
https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3885/statement-of-person-nominated-and-notice-of-poll-for-rotherham&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
And if so, is it posted on web somewhere?
No fringe parties unfortunately (unless one counts Green or Reform).
See https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799084840295489729
In theory a safe Tory seat, in reality I suspect the Lib Dems could grab it..
Well thanks for the heads-up on the Reform Candidate in Tewkesbury. I've been watching out for that on two Sites but neither showed it. This is of some significance for me and other punters.
A few days ago I put the LDs up as a bet at 7/1 but stressed this should be a lot shorter if Ref stood. It's now 5/1 with a couple of firms and 9/2 with Lads and if you are right (I'm sure you are) that is stonking value. As you shrewdly observed, the nice Labour lady is from Kent and looks no more than a token candidate who will one day be offered a more promising opportunity. The LD candidate assures me that 'Labour is nowhere' and the Yellow team is running them perilously close. This is all before Mr Sunak's half day out at the seaside.
As always, DYOR, but this looks a good one to me.
Whistle blowers at his Medical Centre by the looks of it, Darren Henry being the husband of the defenestrated-by-voters Police and Crime Commissioner. All sorts of possibilities and reasons for him standing, in addition to the normal ones.
https://hickinglanemedicalcentre.co.uk/
Clarence Thomas has YET AGAIN amended his financial disclosure form ONLY AFTER getting caught by ProPublica. Thomas must RESIGN.
https://x.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1799124842115113338
https://www.midsussex.gov.uk/media/uxintccw/east-grinstead-and-uckfield-sopn-nop.pdf
https://www.cheltenham.gov.uk/info/17/elections_and_voting/1834/statement_of_persons_nominated_and_notice_of_poll_for_the_uk_parliamentary_election_july_2024
UKIP didn't quite make it, but Reform have a shot at breaking through in several places, even if dreams of replacing the Tories may not come to fruition.
I'm on.
We probably won't get a full slate for a 48 hours because usually there are a few councils who can't be bothered to publish it as soon as they could do.
If this is even half correct it would be ludicrous how forgiving of receiving 'gifts' they are - the problem of the appearance of impropriety being a problem only applies to lesser judges apparently.
https://x.com/pickardje/status/1799125179307794593?s=46
Heart of stone etc
All I can say is: brexit destroyed the right. I see reform as a defensive move for the populists after the ukippification of the conservatives failed. This is a retreat. And the current right will never come back after this. They just don't have the numbers. Being mainly Boomer OAPs the right is numerically in permanent decline. In 2029 and 2034 the situation will be much much worse for the right, and you can forget about brexiteers being able to stop anything.
The future of the right looks like this. Term 1: ideological purists tear into each other in all out civil war. Term 2: some kind of stability appears and a new generation of centre right, progressive, pro eu millenials come in as juniors. Most of the current party will be gone. Term three: the millial generation take up leadership and begin to forge a new electoral basis. Term four: they win and get to lead the newly eu enrolled uk.
Hari Seldon has spoken
https://www.westminsterconservatives.com/people/laila-cunningham
https://x.com/policylaila
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
But of course hundreds of seats are unwinnable but get candidates from the top parties anyway.
I don't see how anyone can even begin to justify it.
https://x.com/countbinface/status/1799119807486316592?s=46
https://www.rbkc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/documents/SoPN Kensington and Bayswater Constituency.pdf
"Kensington & Bayswater - 10 candidates
ADAM, Mona - Green Party
BUCHAN, Felicity - The Conservative Party Candidate
BURCA, Marc Francis - Reform UK
DENT COAD, Emma - Independent
HOUNGBO, William - Liberal Democrat
O`MAHONY, Una Marie - Party of Women
PHILLIPS, Roger David - Christian People's Alliance
POWELL, Joe - Labour Party
PRINCE ANKIT LOVE, Emperor of India - no description
STEVENS, John Christopher Courtenay - Rejoin EU"
They knew alright.
I think when the first set of allegations came out it forced the Court to belatedly adopt some guidance, but the response dripped of institutional entitlement that no one has the right to criticise the Court or seek to do anything to it no matter how egregious the conduct might become.
From the outside it feels like a very unequal branch of government.
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1799129716743630892
So it seems likely that the decision to do the interview was an attempt to strong-arm the party into backing his strategy. And if that's the case, it'll mean that he binned the D-Day commemoration to shore up his own position within the party.
As you say, it's his version of Thatcher's "we fight on; we fight to win!". Is there a Ken Clarke waiting in the wings to make him back down?