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And From The Other Side of the Pond… – politicalbetting.com

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  • DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 161

    Good morning all. I have bet with my friends on the tories winning 175 seats. I have also included a margin of error of 10 seats either way as in 165 or 185 . From now to the election I would say YouGov will come out with a poll showing the Tories on 35 seats and reform 10 points in front of the Tories. I believe many reform voters will vote Tory at election time. So between now and then many things could happen that may alter the way people could vote. There is a question of the shy Tory vote. The do not knows and the people who live in rural constiuencies whose families have always voted Tory For in excess of the last forty years and might well continue to do so. A big part of the fun of this site is following daily events and developments in the election race. However we know that we are in for a new goverment. The polls in 2015 were wrong. My feeling is they are wrong again this time. Not long to go to the big night!

    Lunch break in Moscow?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Stocky said:

    I don't give a flying F about war commemorations but I have to agree with you on this. A spectacular gaffe and manna from heaven for Starmer and Farage.

    If I were a Tory MP I'd generally be a Sunak supporter but today even I would be be penning my letter.
    There are no letters now, no MPs. It requires some sort of special intervention
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Jesus.

    Taking a pop at Zelensky?

    That's a low. The guy's a fucking hero from a real war zone.
    That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
  • Dopermean said:

    Are you suggesting this possibility by %vote or seats?
    %vote has a much higher chance than seats I'd have thought.
    Personally I'm tempted by 4-1 on Reform 0 seats and have laid Reform 7+ seats at ~4-1
    That seems pretty brave. Worth mentioning that in 2015, UKIP were on 13% and Con on 36% nationally and UKIP won Clacton and got close in a couple of others (S Thanet, Thurrock).

    If Reform are high teens and Con low twenties, then Reform should definitely be picking up seats. Reform's vote pattern should be somewhat similar to the LDs, where they have a huge swathe of seats with <10% (e.g Hackney, Glasgow, Cheltenham) and then maybe 50-100 where they can hope to get >30%. The difference with the LDs is whether Reform have the resources on the ground for canvassing, leafletting etc
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    Sandpit said:

    That’s an astute observation. Sunak doesn’t really understand that a big part of the top job is to be the front man, and that turning up and shaking hands means a lot to others.
    He's a backroom boy and doesnt like the front of house stuff.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,365

    marvelous writing btw.
    Isn't it just? Wodehouse is unmatched.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155

    Brilliant!

    P.G. Wodehouse was criticised for being 'lite' on the neo-fascists but it's all there if people bother to read him.

    Satire can be a killer.
    'Lite' on the original fascists surely?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,274

    The scramble from a few to speak of PM Farage is quite droll but misplaced.

    The country is about to vote in a Labour Government with a HUGE majority. That is the story after July 4th and will be for some time to come. Not the tories. Not Farage.

    The story will always focus on the government and the opposition (no matter how hapless/useless). We’re not a one party state.
  • DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 161

    That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
    Double down, why don't you?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    He's a backroom boy and doesnt like the front of house stuff.
    Indeed, so why did he put himself up for the top job in the first place?
  • Do you remember this thread? https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/12169/the-spreads-are-open-politicalbetting-com

    The opening conservative spread was 150-158. It is currently 112-120

    It was suggested that at the time the spread was about right.

    How things change over a fortnight.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Stocky said:

    I don't give a flying F about war commemorations but I have to agree with you on this. A spectacular gaffe and manna from heaven for Starmer and Farage.

    If I were a Tory MP I'd generally be a Sunak supporter but today even I would be be penning my letter.
    You missed last post

    Much like Sunak
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766

    That seems pretty brave. Worth mentioning that in 2015, UKIP were on 13% and Con on 36% nationally and UKIP won Clacton and got close in a couple of others (S Thanet, Thurrock).

    If Reform are high teens and Con low twenties, then Reform should definitely be picking up seats. Reform's vote pattern should be somewhat similar to the LDs, where they have a huge swathe of seats with <10% (e.g Hackney, Glasgow, Cheltenham) and then maybe 50-100 where they can hope to get >30%. The difference with the LDs is whether Reform have the resources on the ground for canvassing, leafletting etc
    They wont have, but if they get to crossover I suspect some large donors might appear.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,430
    Scott_xP said:

    No 10 are apparently denying the story that Richi originally was not going to attend at all.

    One leaked email could end this

    Of course he isn't the head of state, who was there all day.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    Might be their best option. He is now toxic waste
    Back to reality, and Penny will tonight stick to the same answers Sunak has lead with, lose her seat because of that, and never be heard of again.

    It’s like an Agatha Christie, but knowing the who the murderer is before the murder has yet happened.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394
    Good morning one and all. Bright and sunny here this morning, I’m glad to report.

    Private Eye was commenting the other day that it was a bit surprising that the King seemed to just grant the PM’s request for a dissolution without much question or discussion, and suggested that the late Queen wouldn’t necessarily have done so.
    Now, we know that the DDay commemoration was scheduled; our PM wasn’t rung up at the last minute and told that Biden, Macron etc were going and he’d better, too. That’s not the way these things work.
    The point about the Scots holidays is a good one too; what’s more, plenty of parents schedule holidays for immediately after GCSE’s and/or A levels finish. Another clash.
    Then there’s the confusion over who’s standing where; a Party Leader surely has some idea of how ready the troops are.
    And so on.
    Either there’s something very, very good going to happen in the last week of June, or possibly something very nasty which is going to ‘unite the country’, or there’s something very nasty indeed going to happen in the early Autumn.
    Which is it?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,226
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?

    She'd have been at the wrong beach and then a strap-on would have fallen out of her handbag. #justtrussthings
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,430

    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,961
    edited June 2024

    That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

    An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

    Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
    The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.

    The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):

    YIMBY Gold award:

    Selby
    Huntingdonshire
    Mid Suffolk
    Telford and Wrekin
    West Lindsey

    NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom

    Pendle
    Thurrock
    Swale
    Epping Forest
    Peterborough

    Urban Excellence award: Southwark
    Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
    Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
    Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
    Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
    Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Credit and kudos to @Big_G_NorthWales for breaking the biggest story of the campaign on PB last night. Fastest finger first!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Double down, why don't you?
    Disrespectful performance.

    It's ridiculous you are defending it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,456
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?

    And miss the shots for Insta?

    Hell no
  • eekeek Posts: 29,517

    That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
    Which is literally his uniform since day 1 of the war - turning up in anything else would be both wrong and inappropriate given that he is the leader of the country at war...
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640
    You gotta love twitter


  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    Sandpit said:

    Indeed, so why did he put himself up for the top job in the first place?
    Blair, Cameron, BoJo - front of house performers

    Brown, May, Truss and Sunak - desk jockeys.
  • DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 161
    edited June 2024
    Zelensky dresses like he's stepped out of a war zone ... because he has

    And it keeps the world focused on the ongoing battle for Ukraine's survival.

    FFS @bigjohnowls drop that attack line
  • Eabhal said:

    The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.

    The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):

    YIMBY Gold award:

    Selby
    Huntingdonshire
    Mid Suffolk
    Telford and Wrekin
    West Lindsey

    NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom

    Pendle
    Thurrock
    Swale
    Epping Forest
    Peterborough

    Urban Excellence award: Southwark
    Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
    Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
    Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
    Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
    Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
    This glut is all in your head.

    The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.

    Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦‍♂️
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    geoffw said:

    Me!
    You don't understand. I could'a had class, I could'a been a contender, I could'a been somebody

    You still voting Tory Geoff? Well done on perseverance in the face of ever-increasing reasons not to.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    It's not clear to me Farage would be any good at defence.

    A greater bastard would be along shortly demanding he drop the *Net* from the zero immigration target. And so on and so on.
    Absolutey. The Cons tried to out extreme the extremists but the clue is in the name - extremists will always be beyond what everyone else is doing.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Eabhal said:

    There is a mole.

    I think Penny is the mole.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651
    Poor Rishi. He shares the pain of the 8th Army.

    https://youtu.be/jKmzyIq1U10?si=aM2Ls83WcmNXa5uv
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Scott_xP said:

    Penny Mordaunt could sink Richi tonight.

    She might have to, to save her seat.

    She is named after a battleship, after all.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,017
    edited June 2024
    eek said:

    Does he - I suspect he would much prefer for the party he has total (well 53%) control over to be in charge.

    Trump merely controls the Republican Party because his voters are their voters.

    Farage will have both the voters and ownership of the party
    Yes he has been very explicit and consistent about it for a long time, but no-one was listening or thought it possible.

    From 2013 - Talk of Reverse takeover of Conservative by Reform party

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21894316

    From 2023 - Having set up Reform party says will be Conservative leader by 2026

    https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-leader-uk-conservative-party-2026/

    This week - https://news.sky.com/story/nigel-farage-sets-out-plan-for-reverse-takeover-of-conservative-party-13147634

    "I don't want to join the Conservative Party, I think the better thing to do would be to take it over."
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,961
    edited June 2024

    This glut is all in your head.

    The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.

    Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦‍♂️
    8.2% increase in homes
    6.1% increase in households
    6.3% increase in population
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?

    The way her economic policy was going her government wouldn’t have been able to afford to send her.
  • Scott_xP said:

    And miss the shots for Insta?

    Hell no
    Her reaction to the long list of names etched into the memorial would be;

    "tl;dr"
  • eekeek Posts: 29,517

    Hang on, isn't Catterick in his constituency?????

    This seems pretty terminal for his chances of re-election.

    As I pointed out - not actually that many votes in Catterick, it's a training camp so most soldiers are only there on a temporary basis.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,218
    edited June 2024
    Eabhal said:

    8.2% increase in homes
    6.1% increase in households
    6.3% increase in population
    Why are you lying?

    Your households figure is a lie. You know this, so why repeat it?

    People who are compelled to share a home as there's not enough houses are classed as one household. You know that, but you're repeating your lies anyway. 🤦‍♂️

    The idea that t here's been a lesser increase in household demand than population increase, when our demographic changes mean there's even further household pressures, is so obviously false its remarkable your following through on this outright blatant lie.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    eek said:

    Which is literally his uniform since day 1 of the war - turning up in anything else would be both wrong and inappropriate given that he is the leader of the country at war...
    80th year remembrance of the brave who fought in WW2 is a massive event and what do we get.

    Scruffy fooker attends 80th anniversary of D Day dressed as a scruff.

    I think it was totally disrespectful to those who gave there life.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?

    Could you imagine Boris Johnson there? Photos with world leaders and Zelensky vs defending a lie on live tv. They'd have needed half of the SAS to drag him away.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,226

    That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
    Zelensky had been a very successful performer for his entire career and he knows what's up. Dressing like a divorced dad at B&Q is his brand, and the fucker knows to keep the show on the road he has to stay on brand.

    A large part of his electoral platform, back when Ukraine used to have elections, was that he was the anti-politician politician. The other plank of the platform was normalising relations with Russia but that didn't go so well so he's stuck with the anti-politician stuff. His rig of the day is a very visual way of emphasising that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,456
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?

    She'd have stayed behing for a shoot with her own photographer.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,517
    Eabhal said:

    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    What's your definition of households as 1 to 1 relationship between households and new homes makes zero sense because the definition of a house of multiple occupation is multiple households (units) in the same house..

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
    It's not about role play it's about respect for the WW2 fallen
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Good morning one and all. Bright and sunny here this morning, I’m glad to report.

    Private Eye was commenting the other day that it was a bit surprising that the King seemed to just grant the PM’s request for a dissolution without much question or discussion, and suggested that the late Queen wouldn’t necessarily have done so.
    Now, we know that the DDay commemoration was scheduled; our PM wasn’t rung up at the last minute and told that Biden, Macron etc were going and he’d better, too. That’s not the way these things work.
    The point about the Scots holidays is a good one too; what’s more, plenty of parents schedule holidays for immediately after GCSE’s and/or A levels finish. Another clash.
    Then there’s the confusion over who’s standing where; a Party Leader surely has some idea of how ready the troops are.
    And so on.
    Either there’s something very, very good going to happen in the last week of June, or possibly something very nasty which is going to ‘unite the country’, or there’s something very nasty indeed going to happen in the early Autumn.
    Which is it?

    Don't know much about why Lascelles enunciated those Principles but they seem to be about almost winning an election and wanting another go, not fag end governments like this.

    One sinister possibility is that they don't want a GE clashing with a royal funeral (which is perhaps your point)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,961
    edited June 2024

    Why are you lying?

    Your households figure is a lie. You know this, so why repeat it?

    People who are compelled to share a home as there's not enough houses are classed as one household. You know that, but you're repeating your lies anyway. 🤦‍♂️

    The idea that t here's been a lesser increase in household demand than population increase, when our demographic changes mean there's even further household pressures, is so obviously false its remarkable your following through on this outright blatant lie.
    The number of people per household has fallen, and overcrowding has fallen too.

    Edit: sorry, the population per household has risen* This is explained by immigrants being much more efficient users of households than say older people
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    Farage would set the new low for disastrous PMs.

    Those who credit him with Brexit ignore one big fact: if he alone were the face of Brexit, many of us would not have voted for it. That Boris was the face of Brexit is what got it over the line. Left to Farage, we would now be inextricably linked with Brussels, for all time.

    Farage is a Poundshop Trump.

    No thank you.
    Plus the fact Farage wasn’t actually involved in Cummings amazeballs campaign, that got the seemingly impossible done by selling to us how much bloody greener and tasty the grass was on the other side. It probably only worked by excluding Farage.

    In Grahams brilliant screenplay, didn’t Cummings say “oh for fuck sake, no” when Farage showed up at the office?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,982
    edited June 2024
    Eabhal said:

    8.2% increase in homes
    6.1% increase in households
    6.3% increase in population
    To what time period do your figures relate?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,826
    Eabhal said:

    8.2% increase in homes
    6.1% increase in households
    6.3% increase in population
    To start with, the households number is bullshit.

    This is because people forced into a flat/house share are counted as a household.

    An example - at work, one of the juniors lived in a three bed flat. Three people sharing, one household. The landlord came in and divided the large living room into two more rooms. So five people now share a single flat.

    Is that the housing crisis getting better or worse?

    As to claims of a glut - occupancy of property in the UK is something north of 98%. Which is a sign of a very stressed market.

    France, with a similar population, has 8 million more properties than us.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,644
    Chameleon said:

    https://x.com/WhoTargetsMe/status/1798988626556297506

    Conservatives have turned off their digital ad campaigns...

    They could have transferred to a third party - but that is unlikely as they'd surely want to use the Sunak and Conservatives facebook page. Any other theories for why this has happened?

    They have decided to cancel the election before close of nominations this afternoon. Rishi has a Plan. This is the plan.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited June 2024
    So tonight Penny Mordaunt, candidate for one of the most military heavy seats in the country, has to defend Sunak not really being arsed for D-Day. Odds on her going majorly off script to try and save herself?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,125
    Who's Rishi's chief advisor?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,017
    Sandpit said:

    He’s not worn a suit since 24th February 2022. It reminds everyone, that his is a country at war.
    Suits especially with ties are just uncomfortable. So may as well get some little benefit from being invaded by making a virtue of ditching them.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,517
    edited June 2024

    It's not about role play it's about respect for the WW2 fallen
    No vetran would object to the clothes that Zelenskys wears - because that's the uniform he's worn for the past 2 years while he leads a country at war.

    WW2 was a previous war, Ukraine is currently fighting the next war at this moment...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,066
    Andy_JS said:

    Who's Rishi's chief advisor?

    Australian fellow.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,961

    To what time period do your figures relate?
    2011 - 2021.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,970

    You still voting Tory Geoff? Well done on perseverance in the face of ever-increasing reasons not to.
    As a matter of fact, no. It'll be SLab for me as it was last time. But my principles are conservative.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited June 2024

    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    I did notice that. Seemed an odd choice of outfit for a memorial I must say. But given the problems his country is having, seemed a mean point to make.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,017
    Andy_JS said:

    Who's Rishi's chief advisor?

    Whats Corbyn doing these days?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155

    Good morning one and all. Bright and sunny here this morning, I’m glad to report.

    Private Eye was commenting the other day that it was a bit surprising that the King seemed to just grant the PM’s request for a dissolution without much question or discussion, and suggested that the late Queen wouldn’t necessarily have done so.
    Now, we know that the DDay commemoration was scheduled; our PM wasn’t rung up at the last minute and told that Biden, Macron etc were going and he’d better, too. That’s not the way these things work.
    The point about the Scots holidays is a good one too; what’s more, plenty of parents schedule holidays for immediately after GCSE’s and/or A levels finish. Another clash.
    Then there’s the confusion over who’s standing where; a Party Leader surely has some idea of how ready the troops are.
    And so on.
    Either there’s something very, very good going to happen in the last week of June, or possibly something very nasty which is going to ‘unite the country’, or there’s something very nasty indeed going to happen in the early Autumn.
    Which is it?

    Something very, very good is going to happen on 4th July, is my guess.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,456

    She'd have stayed behing for a shoot with her own photographer.
    Which is exactly what Farage did
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,868
    edited June 2024

    Might be their best option. He is now toxic waste
    But in fact that would mean the Tories were seeking re-election without anyone knowing who would become prime minister. It may be that would be better than knowing Sunak would become* prime minister, but it's really not feasible.

    [* I suppose I should have said "remain prime minister"?]
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    edited June 2024
    BETTING POST
    ----------------
    In 2015 Farage came close to winning South Thanet, falling 5.7pp short. The seat has been modified somewhat with the boundary changes, to become Thanet East.

    The popular Tory incumbent, Craig Mackinlay, is not standing for re-election due to the timing of the election and his recovery following sepsis.

    Oddschecker has Reform at 20/1, though according to Wikipedia, neither the Tories or Reform have a declared candidate.

    Do you own research, but looks like a good bet to me.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    So imagine Reform entering the Commons with 3 MPs (Farage, Tice and Anderson). Tories come back with less than 100 and the two parties merge. What's the mechanism for Farage to become the leader of the merged party? What's then stopping the centre-right wing of the party to walk out in an echo of 1981?
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202
    Muesli said:

    ITV are briefing that the interview was filmed yesterday at the Tories’ behest, not the other way around.
    More on that ITV briefing re #ddayinterviewgate:

    Rishi Sunak says: “This anniversary should be about those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country. The last thing I want is for the commemorations to be overshadowed by politics.”

    Paul Brand, ITV News reporter, says: “Today was the slot that we were offered, we don't know why. Obviously it's not our choice, but he certainly returned from Normandy ready to dive back into the campaign.”

    Julie Etchingham, ITV News presenter and election debate moderator, says: “Gentlemen, PLEASE!”
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,826
    eek said:

    No vetran would object to the clothes that Zelenskys wears - because that's the uniform he's worn for the past 2 years while he leads a country at war.
    Churchill spent a considerable chunk of the war wearing a boiler suit.

    Made by Turnbull & Asser, to be sure. They still have one in their collection at Jermyn Street.
  • So on Monday pre Farage I put a lot of Trading bets on Reform and the LDs with the intention of cashing out this weekend, after Farage’s debate appearance tonight.

    At this rate, it is surely better to hold them until next week, where we might get some more strong Reform showings in the polls after the D-Day issue has had cut through… thoughts?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,982
    Eabhal said:

    2011 - 2021.
    So we need to build a lot more than 8.2% in order to reverse the increase in house prices and rents even to 2011 notwithstanding the accuracy of your figures.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Australian fellow.
    Bob Muldoon?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,961

    To start with, the households number is bullshit.

    This is because people forced into a flat/house share are counted as a household.

    An example - at work, one of the juniors lived in a three bed flat. Three people sharing, one household. The landlord came in and divided the large living room into two more rooms. So five people now share a single flat.

    Is that the housing crisis getting better or worse?

    As to claims of a glut - occupancy of property in the UK is something north of 98%. Which is a sign of a very stressed market.

    France, with a similar population, has 8 million more properties than us.
    I don't doubt that has happened in some dwellings. But the fact is that overall total number of dwellings has increased, the total number of spare bedrooms has increased, and overcrowding has fallen.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,961
    edited June 2024

    So we need to build a lot more than 8.2% in order to reverse the increase in house prices and rents even to 2011 notwithstanding the accuracy of your figures.
    I think that is probably true. But I'll check the 2001 - 2011 stats first...

    The general point I'm trying to make is that there is huge variance across the country in terms of housing pressure, and the only way to assuage that is to spread economic demand around more evenly. Building lots of houses in Cumbria does nowt for house prices in London.

    And while increased supply will help with the large increase in people in renting, it cannot be the only intervention. The number of cash buyers floating around prohibits young people getting on the ladder.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    So on Monday pre Farage I put a lot of Trading bets on Reform and the LDs with the intention of cashing out this weekend, after Farage’s debate appearance tonight.

    At this rate, it is surely better to hold them until next week, where we might get some more strong Reform showings in the polls after the D-Day issue has had cut through… thoughts?

    Keep some, I expect crossover early next week, then dump as they (should) start drifting back
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,826

    Suits especially with ties are just uncomfortable. So may as well get some little benefit from being invaded by making a virtue of ditching them.
    Suits are only uncomfortable if they are a poor fit. It takes a bit of getting used to the way you wear them - hence the story of Broccoli getting Sean Connery to wear a DJ non-stop, and even sleep in it, to really feel at home in it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,456
    @LadPolitics

    Well I didn't think we'd be offering this market again...

    Will Rishi Sunak lead the Tories at the next General Election (July 4th)?

    Yes - 1/14
    No - 6/1

    https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/1799006884495827379
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Andy_JS said:

    Who's Rishi's chief advisor?


    ....
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    Chameleon said:

    So tonight Penny Mordaunt, candidate for one of the most military heavy seats in the country, has to defend Sunak not really being arsed for D-Day. Odds on her going majorly off script to try and save herself?

    Odds on I expect. The thing to watch on election night is once the exit poll has been announced how many Tories release themselves from their self imposed vows of silence. The recriminations could be epic to watch.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Whats Corbyn doing these days?
    Tbf Corbz is a significantly better campaigner than Sunak.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,456
    Is it too late for Sunak to do an Estelle Morris?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,517

    To start with, the households number is bullshit.

    This is because people forced into a flat/house share are counted as a household.

    An example - at work, one of the juniors lived in a three bed flat. Three people sharing, one household. The landlord came in and divided the large living room into two more rooms. So five people now share a single flat.

    Is that the housing crisis getting better or worse?

    As to claims of a glut - occupancy of property in the UK is something north of 98%. Which is a sign of a very stressed market.

    France, with a similar population, has 8 million more properties than us.
    Actually not true - the legal definition of a household is (from https://www.gov.uk/private-renting/houses-in-multiple-occupation)

    A household is either a single person or members of the same family who live together. A family includes people who are:

    married or living together - including people in same-sex relationships
    relatives or half-relatives, for example grandparents, aunts, uncles, siblings
    step-parents and step-children

    but the point is a simple one a lot of people are being forced into HMO's because they cannot afford to rent a place by themselves...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,218
    edited June 2024
    Eabhal said:

    The number of people per household has fallen, and overcrowding has fallen too.

    Edit: sorry, the population per household has risen* This is explained by immigrants being much more efficient users of households than say older people
    The number of people per household should have fallen as we have 4 million extra over 50s than we did. Who don't live with children.🤦‍♂️

    Immigration doesn't counter that.

    Your own data reveals the chronic housing shortage. Again!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,970
     

    Is it too late for Sunak to do an Estelle Morris?

    Declare himself to be incompetent?

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    He's been wearing the same type of clothes to all official events since the war started.

    As a reminder of the war.

    It's a deliberate choice and one that everyone he meets seems to have no problem with.
    Yes, fair enough.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,517
    edited June 2024

    Suits are only uncomfortable if they are a poor fit. It takes a bit of getting used to the way you wear them - hence the story of Broccoli getting Sean Connery to wear a DJ non-stop, and even sleep in it, to really feel at home in it.
    Because I work in a lot of places where people don't wear suits a fair number of people comment how comfortable I look in one. That's simply because I did use to wear them all the time..
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    Chameleon said:

    So tonight Penny Mordaunt, candidate for one of the most military heavy seats in the country, has to defend Sunak not really being arsed for D-Day. Odds on her going majorly off script to try and save herself?

    Good grief - Lab are narrow favourites to win Portsmouth North.
  • NovoNovo Posts: 60
    edited June 2024
    Has anyone thought through the consequences for RS in his Richmond Constituency? It includes the UK’S largest garrison at Catterick and important RAF base as well. He could easily lose his seat now!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    She is named after a battleship, after all.
    Tut. Cruiser, surely. Or possibly frigate depending on the timing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Well if you think it's going to be a 97 type landslide Labour are now a SELL on the spreads. Amazing.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    If you think today is bad for Sunak's team, spare a thought for the BBC's hairdresser, with Penny and Angela about to hit the silver screen.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,821
    Sandpit said:

    That’s an astute observation. Sunak doesn’t really understand that a big part of the top job is to be the front man, and that turning up and shaking hands means a lot to others.
    The absolute top job, like PM, involves showing up (and deciding either to show up absolutely or stay away absolutely) and making the impossible calls between actual choices. Everything else, including compiling the list of choices, can be delegated.

    Boris excelled at showing up. For a long time Blair and Thatcher excelled at both, but not for ever. Sunak seems to have neither quite sorted. So far Starmer excels at both. History suggests that his Waterloo, Iraq, Poll tax, Brexit referendum result awaits. There will be no betting market on this, but it's a fascinating question.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    Novo said:

    Has anyone thought through the consequences for RS in his Richmond Constituency? It includes the UK’S largest garrison at Catterick and important RAF base as well. He could easily lose his seat now!

    Does anyone really care? I mean apart from pissing off his retired colonel base and reinforcing the fact that he has a tin ear for politics and should retire instantly and pretend his whole premiership never happened, is anyone going to change votes on account of this?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    If he'd stayed and missed other interviews and appointments he'd have been criticised as well for being absent from the campaign. The mood is to criticise Sunak for being Sunak.

    Absolutely no-one cares about this and it will have zero impact on the campaign or the GE result.

    “he'd have been criticised as well for being absent from the campaign”

    But it was widely agreed to be a day off for the campaign to focus on the commemorations.

    You have it the wrong way round, to sneak away from the break in campaigning, to slip in sneaky campaigning looks bad.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Quite like a tie at times, TBH. I wear open necked suits and suits with ties depending on my mood, and the occasion.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,017

    Suits are only uncomfortable if they are a poor fit. It takes a bit of getting used to the way you wear them - hence the story of Broccoli getting Sean Connery to wear a DJ non-stop, and even sleep in it, to really feel at home in it.
    Sounds a bit like the runners who carry a fridge on their back for the London marathon. Do it long enough and it starts to feel natural. But not comfortable.
This discussion has been closed.