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And From The Other Side of the Pond… – politicalbetting.com

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  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,896
    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    Shall we have a sweep on who will be the last PB-Tory standing? CR or HY? Any other contenders?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,260

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    What, in is history, makes you think Farage would be a competent, or even good, PM?
    He just has to be better than Sunak. Or truss. Or Boris. Or may. Or Cameron. Or brown

    It’s not a high bar and then suddenly he’s the best pm in a generation
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,645
    edited June 7
    There is a mole.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,815
    boulay said:

    Who the hell is advising Number 10? Maggie would never have left D-Day early. Partly because she had too much political nous, but also Sir Bernard Ingham would have known it was a crass thing to do.

    The Tories need to get rid of the bright young things and replace them with a bunch of late middle-aged curmudgeonly Yorkshire blokes... They'd know the score.

    They do need to call in a rescue team and get rid of the idiots running the show right now.

    There is clearly nobody who thinks the Tories can win or even be largest party so it makes sense to run a campaign to save as many seats as possible, parachute in centrists so when the next leader is chosen it’s from the less fruitcakey wing, really push Labour on tax plans whilst not being exactly honest about the Tories own plans, because they will never have to be tested.

    However they need to get people in who look at what he’s going to say, where he’s going and actually think - should you be doing this, what can go wrong. Some “no people” rather than “yes men”.

    Strip everything back to taxes, immigration, and the odd culture war treat. Remember they can say what they like for dog whistles because they will never have to enact it. Just save seats. This is another election where it’s good to lose (yes I know nobody wants to lose and be out of power).
    Immigration as a Tory push button has gone. Raise it and you are just sending attention and votes to Reform far quicker than you will persuade Labour voters.

    All he really has is taxes (weak as own history and forecasts at least as bad) and what is a woman. Good luck with that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    Last-ditch deal with Reform?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    Old Lady Brady and the men in grey suits have been in to see him.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,245
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That's not a surprising stat.

    RTB homes are mostly in council estates and few people chose to live in a council estate if given a choice.

    They are therefore more likely to be bought by BTR investors.

    After a while it becomes a feedback loop - more privately rented houses with multiple occupants making the area steadily less desirable to live in and so steadily fewer people wanting to buy there.
    The only way to fix that is to keep building more houses, so that they eventually depreciate to nothing, rather than being seen as a store of wealth. The reason so many houses have been bought by investors, is because property was about the only investment making a return for more than a decade.
    A friend worked as an IFA - he said that at one point, quite big chunks of Churchill Gardens Estate in Pimlico were selling up. Lots of them were going to same small town in Essex (forget which one). The difference of a flat in grimy concrete vs a house with front and back garden....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    edited June 7
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    Yes but you need Tory voters like me voting for Farage to become PM to get a hard right Farage led government.

    If the Tories are overtaken by Reform on votes and seats then ex Tory voters effectively become the key swing voters under FPTP, we decide whether Farage could ever become PM.

    Farage would need working class Leave voters who used to vote Labour and middle class reasonably well off voters who used to vote Tory to combine to back him to get to No 10
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,589

    Sandpit said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone think that Boris Johnson would have left early yesterday, and avoided the photo at the end with all the leaders including Zelensky?

    Anyone?

    Do you think he would have stayed for deeply respectful reasons, because he really wanted to honour the sacrifice or because he felt he needed to and wanted to hobnob with other leaders?

    It seems Rishi is being slammed for disrespect rather than the opportunity to mix it with men in suits in a beach.
    To be honest, a fair amount of both. Boris did understand his history, and would have understood the importance of the day, almost certainly the last time we’ll see WWII veterans at a public event. Boris would have shaken the hands of every last one of them, and stayed until the very end of the day.
    I think the important difference is that Johnson understood that events like this weren't a distraction from the job, they are the job. The PM is a front man.

    One of Sunak's problems is that he's a backroom details-oriented kind of person (me too!) and so he sees this sort of event as time when he can't be doing what he thinks he ought to be doing.
    In which case he should have been a civil servant not a politician.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 506

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    https://x.com/BenRamanauskas/status/1798980687648919968
    Ben Ramanauskas
    @BenRamanauskas
    ·
    44m
    The Labour Party claims to care about workers rights but Sir Keir Starmer's genie hasn't had a break in months.

    Now that’s good craic
    I’m not so sure. Reform are taking more votes from Labour than from the Tories if the polls are right

    I’ve said it on here many times. Britain will eventually get a populist right party and they will either be the Tories or more likely a replacement for the Tories
    There's definitely a cautionary 'be careful what you wish for' floating around, but fuck it: let's see the Tories skewered and deal with Reform after next month.
    The Conservatives and Reform have the same financial backers and thinktanks behind them, Reform is "Daz" suddenly being massively promoted because "Ariel" has had a PR mishap and "Persil" is surging ahead in marketshare. The campaigning effort will be focused on minimizing Labour gains and Clacton may be gifted to Farage if he actually wants to be an MP.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,815
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    Yes but you need Tory voters like me voting for Farage to become PM to get a hard right Farage led government.

    If the Tories are overtaken by Reform on votes and seats then ex Tory voters effectively become the key swing voters under FPTP, we decide whether Farage could ever become PM.

    Farage would need working class Leave voters who used to vote Labour and middle class reasonably well off voters who used to vote Tory to combine to back him to get to No 10
    Rishi Sunak = David Steel
    Nigel Farage = David Owen
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    Hopefully Farage and whatever's left of the Tory Party will split the populist right descendency and not be near power until they start getting serious again.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,903
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    And 60% aren't. Even those 40% are extra earnings for owners of those properties when they would have just been renting them before.

    New affordable homes targeted at the young would make a difference
    Not really - those 40% are on the open market being rented out for way more than the social housing house next door.

    Which means someone is profiteering from their or someone else's luck...
    Often foreign investors, of course. Laundering their dirty money.
  • DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 161

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    Last-ditch deal with Reform?

    There is no chance whatsoever of Reform doing a deal now with the Conservatives.

    Why on earth would you offer a draw to someone you have on the ropes with several standing counts already?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    Last-ditch deal with Reform?
    No chance . Why would they make life easier for the Tories now . Farage wants to destroy the Tories .
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    What, in is history, makes you think Farage would be a competent, or even good, PM?
    He just has to be better than Sunak. Or truss. Or Boris. Or may. Or Cameron. Or brown

    It’s not a high bar and then suddenly he’s the best pm in a generation
    If you had spent any time with him, talking in a relaxed situation, you would know he’s a complete lightweight, past the golf club bonhomie he’s fucking humourless and witless. He’s amusing for ten minutes but two hours later when you’ve tried to have interesting chats you realise there is nothing there apart from the most basic simplistic opinions in a very narrow sphere of politics.

    Its why Trump loves him, he won’t have anything interesting to say, no interesting ideas but will happily parrot back what Trump says like an echo chamber and they all sit grinning about how great they are.

    I know you think you are being a bit edgy calling for him to take over but you will the first crying like a baby when you realise what you’ve got. I don’t even live in the UK and worry about what would happen if he was in charge.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    Eabhal said:

    There is a mole.

    Yes we've got one in our lawn too. Now, back to the GE...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    Penny Mordaunt could sink Richi tonight.

    She might have to, to save her seat.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    If I was a Tory MP right now I’d seriously be weighing up whether to get on the blower to Farage before nominations close….
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    Last-ditch deal with Reform?

    There is no chance whatsoever of Reform doing a deal now with the Conservatives.

    Why on earth would you offer a draw to someone you have on the ropes with several standing counts already?
    A pact and a merger? A top job for Farage?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Isn’t Dowden the Deputy PM .

    That complicates things . Get Penny in and we can have the battle of the great hair .
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174
    Well at least no one is talking about Sunak telling lies any more...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,367
    Scott_xP said:

    Penny Mordaunt could sink Richi tonight.

    She might have to, to save her seat.

    She will have to - given the make up of her seat - if she supports Rishi leaving early a lot of military / ex- military are going to be very annoyed
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,645
    edited June 7
    tlg86 said:

    Well at least no one is talking about Sunak telling lies any more...

    Managed to resuscitate the compulsory volunteering National Service debate though!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,815

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    Last-ditch deal with Reform?

    There is no chance whatsoever of Reform doing a deal now with the Conservatives.

    Why on earth would you offer a draw to someone you have on the ropes with several standing counts already?
    A pact and a merger? A top job for Farage?
    He wants to be leader of the Conservative party. Too late for this election, but I expect merger with him top dog by the year end.
  • DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 161
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    You and the likes of Braverman are a good example of why the Right will be kept out of power for many years.

    You are clueless about Britain.

    Until the Conservatives ditch the right wing rabble rousing and win back the centre they will remain out of power. There is only enough oxygen on your Right for about 1/4 of the vote. Unless you win the other 1/4 which used to be the one nation tories you are lost.

    Farage appears to be your latest in a long line of luv-ins but he is poison to far too many people right of centre to be anything other than a populist demagogue.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    I don’t know how true it is though. Digital campaigns are complex things with various on and off points, and run across many media (source: it’s my job).

    While it looks odd on the surface, I wouldn’t rush to a conclusion.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    I’m laughing at the absurdity of Sunak’s election campaign now. Has anyone ever been so hapless in British politics before? Poor guy. I almost feel sorry for him. The farce, and the fact that it now feels the bottom is going to drop out for the Tories, has finally made GE2024 interesting to me. Thanks Rishi!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,367
    edited June 7

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    Last-ditch deal with Reform?

    There is no chance whatsoever of Reform doing a deal now with the Conservatives.

    Why on earth would you offer a draw to someone you have on the ropes with several standing counts already?
    A pact and a merger? A top job for Farage?
    He wants to be leader of the Conservative party. Too late for this election, but I expect merger with him top dog by the year end.
    Does he - I suspect he would much prefer for the party he has total (well 53%) control over to be in charge.

    Trump merely controls the Republican Party because his voters are their voters.

    Farage will have both the voters and ownership of the party
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    What, in is history, makes you think Farage would be a competent, or even good, PM?
    He just has to be better than Sunak. Or truss. Or Boris. Or may. Or Cameron. Or brown

    It’s not a high bar and then suddenly he’s the best pm in a generation
    Farage would set the new low for disastrous PMs.

    Those who credit him with Brexit ignore one big fact: if he alone were the face of Brexit, many of us would not have voted for it. That Boris was the face of Brexit is what got it over the line. Left to Farage, we would now be inextricably linked with Brussels, for all time.

    Farage is a Poundshop Trump.

    No thank you.
    If you leave aside, what would undoubtedly be, a catastrophically bad policy platform and look at what the job of PM actually is, blowing smoke up arseholes and picking the team, Farage would be ok-to-good at that.

    Certainly better at being PM than Ri$hi who is terrible at blowing smoke up arseholes (D-Day) and picking the team (Swella, Shappsie, that shitstain Dowden and many, many others).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,570
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    What, in is history, makes you think Farage would be a competent, or even good, PM?
    He just has to be better than Sunak. Or truss. Or Boris. Or may. Or Cameron. Or brown

    It’s not a high bar and then suddenly he’s the best pm in a generation
    So... you have nothing except hope and feels.

    Leaving aside my personal views.... I see little reason to think Farage will be a 'good' PM, even from a right-wing POV. He has a history of falling out with those who surround him, and it always becomes the Farage show. Campaigning is not leading.

    This might be good for a dictator, or even a president. But a PM needs to build coalitions; both inside his party and, preferably, outside. I see zero sign that Farage could do that.

    Back in 2016/7, Boris was the right's great hope. My stated view was that, whilst I liked him, his time as MoL showed that he would be a very poor PM. I see even fewer signs that Farage will be a good PM.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    Yes but you need Tory voters like me voting for Farage to become PM to get a hard right Farage led government.

    If the Tories are overtaken by Reform on votes and seats then ex Tory voters effectively become the key swing voters under FPTP, we decide whether Farage could ever become PM.

    Farage would need working class Leave voters who used to vote Labour and middle class reasonably well off voters who used to vote Tory to combine to back him to get to No 10
    Yes. And your answer will be...?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    edited June 7
    nico679 said:

    Isn’t Dowden the Deputy PM .

    That complicates things . Get Penny in and we can have the battle of the great hair .

    if they had Dowden in they would need to mop up the trail of slime that he leaves, a la Ken Baker
  • DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 161
    I suggest they have turned off messaging because they are in despair and hoping the best way for the story to go away is to ignore it and let it blow over. Which it might.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,645
    Ghedebrav said:

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    I don’t know how true it is though. Digital campaigns are complex things with various on and off points, and run across many media (source: it’s my job).

    While it looks odd on the surface, I wouldn’t rush to a conclusion.
    It's probably sensible for the time being - the amount of abuse they will be getting in the comments and so on won't be worth it.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    Old Lady Brady and the men in grey suits have been in to see him.
    Bugger men in grey suits, men in white coats would be a better option.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,245

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    The D-Day story came out in a pub conversation last night. From non-politics following people. The kind who say "Politics? Shower, the lot of them. Kick the current lot out for a change, don't expect much. Who's round is it?"
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    Considering how much of what the Tories have said this week has ended up making things worse, perhaps it means they have decided to stop digging while they try to formulate a damage-limitation strategy?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    At what point does the Tory campaign become 'vote for us to keep us as the Opposition and we'll get a better leader next time?'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    edited June 7

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    You and the likes of Braverman are a good example of why the Right will be kept out of power for many years.

    You are clueless about Britain.

    Until the Conservatives ditch the right wing rabble rousing and win back the centre they will remain out of power. There is only enough oxygen on your Right for about 1/4 of the vote. Unless you win the other 1/4 which used to be the one nation tories you are lost.

    Farage appears to be your latest in a long line of luv-ins but he is poison to far too many people right of centre to be anything other than a populist demagogue.
    Yes but if Farage wins over Tories he could do it.

    Trump only got elected in 2016 and may only get elected in November as establishment Republicans and many Independents voted for him. Meloni in Italy got in with centre right Forza Italia support as well as that for her own hard right coalition.

    In Canada Reform never got anywhere near power until they merged with the Canadian Tories in 2003
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    edited June 7

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    You and the likes of Braverman are a good example of why the Right will be kept out of power for many years.

    You are clueless about Britain.

    Until the Conservatives ditch the right wing rabble rousing and win back the centre they will remain out of power. There is only enough oxygen on your Right for about 1/4 of the vote. Unless you win the other 1/4 which used to be the one nation tories you are lost.

    Farage appears to be your latest in a long line of luv-ins but he is poison to far too many people right of centre to be anything other than a populist demagogue.
    I really understand this argument but… I am afraid I don’t really agree with it.

    The bit I do think is correct is Farage probably has a ceiling. But he could be a gateway for someone to come after him who has less baggage.

    2017 (and Brexit) has taught me never to suppose that candidates on the harder left or right of the spectrum cannot do well. Corbyn came perilously close to Number 10 in 2017.

    Populism is still drawing a lot of support in the West at the moment.



  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    It gets worse the initial idea was that Sunak would not go at all. This is worse than 1983 Labour campaign.

    https://x.com/iainmartin1/status/1798977946574782737?s=46

    What the actual fuck is wrong with the man?
    I have no idea. At this stage I think the Tories should kidnap Rishi lock him in a box in the Outer Hebrides and get Cameron or someone to front the rest of the campaign. It can’t go on like this. It’s too grim.
    An illness might be convenient. I hear that an abscess is a nasty thing with a convalescence period long enough to cover the rest of the campaign.
    Speaking of which, do we know how TSE is? I hope he's on the mend soon.
    He popped in yesterday to let us know the op had gone well, but that he had weeks of convalescence ahead of him.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,982
    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone think that Boris Johnson would have left early yesterday, and avoided the photo at the end with all the leaders including Zelensky?

    Anyone?

    Key point. Almost any other politician would have stayed to associate with the A list celebrities because they live for this stuff. It isn't a chore for them. Sunak is unusual.
    Particularly when this is the last such event you will be attending as PM. You would think even from a purely selfish perspective the chance to do that would outweigh an ITV interview.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,703
    Ratters said:

    At what point does the Tory campaign become 'vote for us to keep us as the Opposition and we'll get a better leader next time?'

    I believe there was an Australian campaign where the main pitch was - "stop them having a total landslide"
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    You and the likes of Braverman are a good example of why the Right will be kept out of power for many years.

    You are clueless about Britain.

    Until the Conservatives ditch the right wing rabble rousing and win back the centre they will remain out of power. There is only enough oxygen on your Right for about 1/4 of the vote. Unless you win the other 1/4 which used to be the one nation tories you are lost.

    Farage appears to be your latest in a long line of luv-ins but he is poison to far too many people right of centre to be anything other than a populist demagogue.
    The trouble with you, Spode, is that just because you have succeeded in inducing a handful of half-wits to disfigure the London scene by going about in black shorts, you think you’re someone. You hear them shouting ‘Heil, Spode!’ and you imagine it is the Voice of the People. That is where you make your bloomer. What the Voice of the People is saying is: ‘Look at that frightful ass Spode swanking about in footer bags! Did you ever in your puff see such a perfect perisher?’
    marvelous writing btw.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,703
    Chris said:

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    Considering how much of what the Tories have said this week has ended up making things worse, perhaps it means they have decided to stop digging while they try to formulate a damage-limitation strategy?
    Sounds most likley to me.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    What, in is history, makes you think Farage would be a competent, or even good, PM?
    He just has to be better than Sunak. Or truss. Or Boris. Or may. Or Cameron. Or brown

    It’s not a high bar and then suddenly he’s the best pm in a generation

    The earliest that Farage can now become PM is 2029. He'll be 65 or 66 by then, with another five years of fags and booze to enjoy. He will always be far more comfortable on the outside shouting in. You need to find someone else to do the hard work of opposing across the full range of policies, let alone doing the governing.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    It's absolutely incredible

    Rishi has effectively detonated a nuclear bomb on the CON remaining chances of holding a reasonable number of seats

    Unbelievably there is a real possibility of CON getting low double digit seats sub 50, may be at the bottom of that range, and only around 15% of the vote!

    The Tories need to die. It’s that simple. Their pathetic warmed-over Blairism doesn’t cut it any more. They have no idea what to do next except make money for themselves and their friends

    Their time has come. Let them die a peaceful death
    Replaced by what? PM Farage in 5-10 years?

    There are plenty of us like me who are also ideological Tories and would be even if they got 0 seats, we are not going to vote Reform, we are certainly not going to vote Labour or Green and nor are we going to vote LD nationally either.

    The Farage premiership you so desperately want also cannot happen without Tories like me switching to vote for him. That would require a Tory and Reform merger as in Canada where a new Conservative Party was created ultimately as eventually happened under FPTP. If we went to PR of course the Tories could easily continue as a separate party on just 10-20% of the vote and indeed still win 60-120 seats with that
    I want reform to become the bigger party so that they absorb your pathetic rabble of careerist c*nts. Btw in this critique I don’t include you - you always strike me as honourable and honest, a bit dogmatic but clear headed and loyal. However you are loyal to a fault. You are dutifully canvassing for a bus load of corrupt and greedy shits. Indeed worse than that - corrupt greedy INCOMPETENT shits

    You will be welcome on board HMS New Right
    Thanks, as mentioned I am an ideological Tory though, despite the problems at the top of the party as long as there is a Tory candidate on the ballot paper I will vote for them. It would need a Tory and Reform merger for us both to be united on HMS New Right
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Penny Mordaunt could sink Richi tonight.

    She might have to, to save her seat.

    She will have to - given the make up of her seat - if she supports Rishi leaving early a lot of military / ex- military are going to be very annoyed
    I was thinking about this too. I would put her seat chances at 50/50. But if she says boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, Rwanda will be fabulous deterrent and smash the gangs, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do so much if it, and be on receiving of all the ridicule and anger for saying all these things, it’s not going to help her in her own seat battle at all. She might not be an option in the Tory Leadership election. 😕
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    Someone forgot to top up their online accounts.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    nico679 said:

    Heathener said:

    So it’s now the lead headline on the News:



    The BBC avoided the story and now has been forced to highlight it after Sunaks apology .
    I have long since given up on BBC News. Sky and C4 are far superior. Even ITN is better.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,367

    Ratters said:

    At what point does the Tory campaign become 'vote for us to keep us as the Opposition and we'll get a better leader next time?'

    I believe there was an Australian campaign where the main pitch was - "stop them having a total landslide"
    Someone suggested yesterday that the Tories need to focus on their 100 safest seats / and that is literally the slogan they need because oh boy Rishi has screwed up to the extent my wife just mentioned it
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,589

    Ratters said:

    At what point does the Tory campaign become 'vote for us to keep us as the Opposition and we'll get a better leader next time?'

    I believe there was an Australian campaign where the main pitch was - "stop them having a total landslide"
    The results of the India election might have had a similar cause.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
    Sunak has a monkeys paw more than Starmer has a magic lamp.
  • DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 161
    edited June 7

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    You and the likes of Braverman are a good example of why the Right will be kept out of power for many years.

    You are clueless about Britain.

    Until the Conservatives ditch the right wing rabble rousing and win back the centre they will remain out of power. There is only enough oxygen on your Right for about 1/4 of the vote. Unless you win the other 1/4 which used to be the one nation tories you are lost.

    Farage appears to be your latest in a long line of luv-ins but he is poison to far too many people right of centre to be anything other than a populist demagogue.
    The trouble with you, Spode, is that just because you have succeeded in inducing a handful of half-wits to disfigure the London scene by going about in black shorts, you think you’re someone. You hear them shouting ‘Heil, Spode!’ and you imagine it is the Voice of the People. That is where you make your bloomer. What the Voice of the People is saying is: ‘Look at that frightful ass Spode swanking about in footer bags! Did you ever in your puff see such a perfect perisher?’
    Brilliant!

    P.G. Wodehouse was criticised for being 'lite' on the neo-fascists but it's all there if people bother to read him.

    Satire can be a killer.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    boulay said:

    Who the hell is advising Number 10? Maggie would never have left D-Day early. Partly because she had too much political nous, but also Sir Bernard Ingham would have known it was a crass thing to do.

    The Tories need to get rid of the bright young things and replace them with a bunch of late middle-aged curmudgeonly Yorkshire blokes... They'd know the score.

    They do need to call in a rescue team and get rid of the idiots running the show right now.

    There is clearly nobody who thinks the Tories can win or even be largest party so it makes sense to run a campaign to save as many seats as possible, parachute in centrists so when the next leader is chosen it’s from the less fruitcakey wing, really push Labour on tax plans whilst not being exactly honest about the Tories own plans, because they will never have to be tested.

    However they need to get people in who look at what he’s going to say, where he’s going and actually think - should you be doing this, what can go wrong. Some “no people” rather than “yes men”.

    Strip everything back to taxes, immigration, and the odd culture war treat. Remember they can say what they like for dog whistles because they will never have to enact it. Just save seats. This is another election where it’s good to lose (yes I know nobody wants to lose and be out of power).
    Immigration as a Tory push button has gone. Raise it and you are just sending attention and votes to Reform far quicker than you will persuade Labour voters.

    All he really has is taxes (weak as own history and forecasts at least as bad) and what is a woman. Good luck with that.
    Sunak vs Farage on immigration, is going to be like Mike Tyson vs Marvis Frazier.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone think that Boris Johnson would have left early yesterday, and avoided the photo at the end with all the leaders including Zelensky?

    Anyone?

    Key point. Almost any other politician would have stayed to associate with the A list celebrities because they live for this stuff. It isn't a chore for them. Sunak is unusual.
    Particularly when this is the last such event you will be attending as PM. You would think even from a purely selfish perspective the chance to do that would outweigh an ITV interview.

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone think that Boris Johnson would have left early yesterday, and avoided the photo at the end with all the leaders including Zelensky?

    Anyone?

    Key point. Almost any other politician would have stayed to associate with the A list celebrities because they live for this stuff. It isn't a chore for them. Sunak is unusual.
    Particularly when this is the last such event you will be attending as PM. You would think even from a purely selfish perspective the chance to do that would outweigh an ITV interview.
    He must have consulted Cameron.

    Who must have said that is ABSOLUTELY FINE, you go back to London and I will stand in for you at all these boring photoshoots with tedious nobodies like POTUS.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    Bf Labour vote percentage market: the odds look too skewed towards the higher percentage bands IMO. Particularly with Reform strengthened by Farage.

    What do other posters think? Where is the value here?

    I've had a very speculative fiver at 40 on the 34-35.99% band.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    What, in is history, makes you think Farage would be a competent, or even good, PM?
    He just has to be better than Sunak. Or truss. Or Boris. Or may. Or Cameron. Or brown

    It’s not a high bar and then suddenly he’s the best pm in a generation

    The earliest that Farage can now become PM is 2029. He'll be 65 or 66 by then, with another five years of fags and booze to enjoy. He will always be far more comfortable on the outside shouting in. You need to find someone else to do the hard work of opposing across the full range of policies, let alone doing the governing.

    65 or 66, Biden is 80, Trump nearly 80.

    On that basis Farage if he won a general election could easily be UK PM for a decade
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,570

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
    I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
    It's far too late. The narrative has been set, both by Sunak and his most previous predecessors. The Tory brand is covered in faeces, and it will take years to clean it. Not weeks.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited June 7
    https://x.com/WhoTargetsMe/status/1798988626556297506

    Conservatives have turned off their digital ad campaigns...

    They could have transferred to a third party - but that is unlikely as they'd surely want to use the Sunak and Conservatives facebook page. Any other theories for why this has happened?
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    The Allied forces were first on the beaches, Sunak was first to leave the beaches.

    Many paid the ultimate price, Sunak may pay the ultimate political price.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
    I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
    Sunak pledges to retire at GE, Penny takes over the mantle of the campaign? At that point she could almost realistically say a vote for me is to give me a base to rebuild.

    It would be a bizarre, bizarre situation but it’s starting to feel like something has to give.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Sandpit said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone think that Boris Johnson would have left early yesterday, and avoided the photo at the end with all the leaders including Zelensky?

    Anyone?

    Do you think he would have stayed for deeply respectful reasons, because he really wanted to honour the sacrifice or because he felt he needed to and wanted to hobnob with other leaders?

    It seems Rishi is being slammed for disrespect rather than the opportunity to mix it with men in suits in a beach.
    To be honest, a fair amount of both. Boris did understand his history, and would have understood the importance of the day, almost certainly the last time we’ll see WWII veterans at a public event. Boris would have shaken the hands of every last one of them, and stayed until the very end of the day.
    I think the important difference is that Johnson understood that events like this weren't a distraction from the job, they are the job. The PM is a front man.

    One of Sunak's problems is that he's a backroom details-oriented kind of person (me too!) and so he sees this sort of event as time when he can't be doing what he thinks he ought to be doing.
    That’s an astute observation. Sunak doesn’t really understand that a big part of the top job is to be the front man, and that turning up and shaking hands means a lot to others.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited June 7
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    You and the likes of Braverman are a good example of why the Right will be kept out of power for many years.

    You are clueless about Britain.

    Until the Conservatives ditch the right wing rabble rousing and win back the centre they will remain out of power. There is only enough oxygen on your Right for about 1/4 of the vote. Unless you win the other 1/4 which used to be the one nation tories you are lost.

    Farage appears to be your latest in a long line of luv-ins but he is poison to far too many people right of centre to be anything other than a populist demagogue.
    Yes but if Farage wins over Tories he could do it.

    Trump only got elected in 2016 and may only get elected in November as establishment Republicans and many Independents voted for him. Meloni in Italy got in with centre right Forza Italia support as well as that for her own hard right coalition.

    In Canada Reform never got anywhere near power until they merged with the Canadian Tories in 2003
    It's not clear to me Farage would be any good at defence.

    A greater bastard would be along shortly demanding he drop the *Net* from the zero immigration target. And so on and so on.
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202

    The D-Day fiasco has got to knock the Tory polling back a few % and below Reform, surely?

    This campaign is beginning to make May's look not too bad.

    Indeed. It does seem to be self-sabotaging itself. I am not sure it is Sunak - albeit he is the boss so should crack the whip. From day one it has been a bit of a shower.

    The launch was laughable. No one looked at the weather forecast. And it seems did not know that they were not allowed to do it inside Number 10. You would have thought they could have lined up a local school or something.

    Going home yesterday was symptomatic of the screw ups. Fancy leaving Starmer the opportunity to look prime ministerial during an election campaign. Are they idiots! The interview doesn’t screen until next week. If it was something for now there may be more sympathy, but all I sense is derision.
    The being sent to the titanic you can definitely place the fault on your team, in those situations you are just been driven from place to place.

    When you are at a massive WW2 commemorations, major world leaders and royalty are there, whatever your team tell you is up next you tell them to get stuffed, particularly if it is just an ITV interview (they will reschedule).
    ITV are briefing that the interview was filmed yesterday at the Tories’ behest, not the other way around.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Hang on, isn't Catterick in his constituency?????

    This seems pretty terminal for his chances of re-election.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    Re Header - I agree and posted such a couple of days ago. Biden too high at 2.86 (or, alternatively, Trump a lay at 1.88).
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
    I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
    It's far too late. The narrative has been set, both by Sunak and his most previous predecessors. The Tory brand is covered in faeces, and it will take years to clean it. Not weeks.
    Oh I'm talking to save 100 instead of being fourth party with 10. They're screwed, they need to work out how to be least screwed
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,645

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,657

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    Someone forgot to top up their online accounts.
    They finally realised that the Labour Party has hacked into the AI that's been running their campaign?
  • DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 161
    The scramble from a few to speak of PM Farage is quite droll but misplaced.

    The country is about to vote in a Labour Government with a HUGE majority. That is the story after July 4th and will be for some time to come. Not the tories. Not Farage.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,815
    Sandpit said:

    boulay said:

    Who the hell is advising Number 10? Maggie would never have left D-Day early. Partly because she had too much political nous, but also Sir Bernard Ingham would have known it was a crass thing to do.

    The Tories need to get rid of the bright young things and replace them with a bunch of late middle-aged curmudgeonly Yorkshire blokes... They'd know the score.

    They do need to call in a rescue team and get rid of the idiots running the show right now.

    There is clearly nobody who thinks the Tories can win or even be largest party so it makes sense to run a campaign to save as many seats as possible, parachute in centrists so when the next leader is chosen it’s from the less fruitcakey wing, really push Labour on tax plans whilst not being exactly honest about the Tories own plans, because they will never have to be tested.

    However they need to get people in who look at what he’s going to say, where he’s going and actually think - should you be doing this, what can go wrong. Some “no people” rather than “yes men”.

    Strip everything back to taxes, immigration, and the odd culture war treat. Remember they can say what they like for dog whistles because they will never have to enact it. Just save seats. This is another election where it’s good to lose (yes I know nobody wants to lose and be out of power).
    Immigration as a Tory push button has gone. Raise it and you are just sending attention and votes to Reform far quicker than you will persuade Labour voters.

    All he really has is taxes (weak as own history and forecasts at least as bad) and what is a woman. Good luck with that.
    Sunak vs Farage on immigration, is going to be like Mike Tyson vs Marvis Frazier.
    Of course Farage can't solve the keep the health and care services, fund the university sector to help balance of payments and have virtually no net immigration any more than anyone else can. But he can talk the talk and has no accountability for what has already happened.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,494

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Penny Mordaunt could sink Richi tonight.

    She might have to, to save her seat.

    She will have to - given the make up of her seat - if she supports Rishi leaving early a lot of military / ex- military are going to be very annoyed
    I was thinking about this too. I would put her seat chances at 50/50. But if she says boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, Rwanda will be fabulous deterrent and smash the gangs, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do so much if it, and be on receiving of all the ridicule and anger for saying all these things, it’s not going to help her in her own seat battle at all. She might not be an option in the Tory Leadership election. 😕
    This is the damage Boris and Sunak have done to the party. Succession planning, that puts party first rather than cosy echo chamber around yourself. Rather than a broad tent, where talent has been given experience, and next leader can be picked from a wide list of tried and tested talent - one of many things that helped Conservative Party be so successful in the past - the next Conservative LOTO and team around them could be very untested and mystery if they will be any good or not. ☹️
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
    I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
    Sunak pledges to retire at GE, Penny takes over the mantle of the campaign? At that point she could almost realistically say a vote for me is to give me a base to rebuild.

    It would be a bizarre, bizarre situation but it’s starting to feel like something has to give.
    Might be their best option. He is now toxic waste
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708

    Shall we have a sweep on who will be the last PB-Tory standing? CR or HY? Any other contenders?

    Me!
    You don't understand. I could'a had class, I could'a been a contender, I could'a been somebody

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,245

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    The actual veterans of Overlord* seemed to be OK with his dress code.

    *D-Day is actually a mistaken name.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
    I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
    I don't give a flying F about war commemorations but I have to agree with you on this. A spectacular gaffe and manna from heaven for Starmer and Farage.

    If I were a Tory MP I'd generally be a Sunak supporter but today even I would be be penning my letter.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,402

    The scramble from a few to speak of PM Farage is quite droll but misplaced.

    The country is about to vote in a Labour Government with a HUGE majority. That is the story after July 4th and will be for some time to come. Not the tories. Not Farage.

    Oh good, that's a keeper.

    Let''s see how things develop.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    The interesting market at this point is who might be the official opposition. Surely not the SNP. The yellow peril I suppose, unless farage can clear the FPTP bar.

  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274
    Good morning all. I have bet with my friends on the tories winning 175 seats. I have also included a margin of error of 10 seats either way as in 165 or 185 . From now to the election I would say YouGov will come out with a poll showing the Tories on 35 seats and reform 10 points in front of the Tories. I believe many reform voters will vote Tory at election time. So between now and then many things could happen that may alter the way people could vote. There is a question of the shy Tory vote. The do not knows and the people who live in rural constiuencies whose families have always voted Tory For in excess of the last forty years and might well continue to do so. A big part of the fun of this site is following daily events and developments in the election race. However we know that we are in for a new goverment. The polls in 2015 were wrong. My feeling is they are wrong again this time. Not long to go to the big night!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    "Lord Sumption quits Hong Kong court amid crackdown fears

    Two judges become the latest to resign from part-time position in the territory after pressure from ministers and campaigners"

    https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/article/lord-sumption-quits-hong-kong-court-amid-crackdown-fears-75b7x35mj
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

    An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

    Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
This discussion has been closed.