Good morning all. I have bet with my friends on the tories winning 175 seats. I have also included a margin of error of 10 seats either way as in 165 or 185 . From now to the election I would say YouGov will come out with a poll showing the Tories on 35 seats and reform 10 points in front of the Tories. I believe many reform voters will vote Tory at election time. So between now and then many things could happen that may alter the way people could vote. There is a question of the shy Tory vote. The do not knows and the people who live in rural constiuencies whose families have always voted Tory For in excess of the last forty years and might well continue to do so. A big part of the fun of this site is following daily events and developments in the election race. However we know that we are in for a new goverment. The polls in 2015 were wrong. My feeling is they are wrong again this time. Not long to go to the big night!
I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.
We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.
No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
My good lady has just said about the Sunak story
'What a shambles' and she is not into politics
She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.
The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
I don't give a flying F about war commemorations but I have to agree with you on this. A spectacular gaffe and manna from heaven for Starmer and Farage.
If I were a Tory MP I'd generally be a Sunak supporter but today even I would be be penning my letter.
There are no letters now, no MPs. It requires some sort of special intervention
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Jesus.
Taking a pop at Zelensky?
That's a low. The guy's a fucking hero from a real war zone.
That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
What a blunder by the Prime Minister. 75% of people probably won't mind or even care. The 25% who really mind are the very people he had left as his voters.
Except on the latest Redfield poll those are no longer the core vote of Sunak's Tory Party.
The latest Redfield has the Tories polling highest with 45-54 year olds on 22% now post debate and Farage return, second highest with 35-44 year olds and with 65+ year olds the Tories are now third on 17% behind Reform on 19%.
Indeed with 55 year olds and over Reform and Labour now beat the Tories, yet with under 55s the Sunak Tories still lead Reform
But it's the 55+ who are more likely to vote in the election
It's weird to say this but it's perfectly possible that Reform will beat the Tories at this election..
Are you suggesting this possibility by %vote or seats? %vote has a much higher chance than seats I'd have thought. Personally I'm tempted by 4-1 on Reform 0 seats and have laid Reform 7+ seats at ~4-1
That seems pretty brave. Worth mentioning that in 2015, UKIP were on 13% and Con on 36% nationally and UKIP won Clacton and got close in a couple of others (S Thanet, Thurrock).
If Reform are high teens and Con low twenties, then Reform should definitely be picking up seats. Reform's vote pattern should be somewhat similar to the LDs, where they have a huge swathe of seats with <10% (e.g Hackney, Glasgow, Cheltenham) and then maybe 50-100 where they can hope to get >30%. The difference with the LDs is whether Reform have the resources on the ground for canvassing, leafletting etc
Does anyone think that Boris Johnson would have left early yesterday, and avoided the photo at the end with all the leaders including Zelensky?
Anyone?
Do you think he would have stayed for deeply respectful reasons, because he really wanted to honour the sacrifice or because he felt he needed to and wanted to hobnob with other leaders?
It seems Rishi is being slammed for disrespect rather than the opportunity to mix it with men in suits in a beach.
To be honest, a fair amount of both. Boris did understand his history, and would have understood the importance of the day, almost certainly the last time we’ll see WWII veterans at a public event. Boris would have shaken the hands of every last one of them, and stayed until the very end of the day.
I think the important difference is that Johnson understood that events like this weren't a distraction from the job, they are the job. The PM is a front man.
One of Sunak's problems is that he's a backroom details-oriented kind of person (me too!) and so he sees this sort of event as time when he can't be doing what he thinks he ought to be doing.
That’s an astute observation. Sunak doesn’t really understand that a big part of the top job is to be the front man, and that turning up and shaking hands means a lot to others.
He's a backroom boy and doesnt like the front of house stuff.
Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .
This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .
If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.
So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .
I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .
No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister
Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
You and the likes of Braverman are a good example of why the Right will be kept out of power for many years.
You are clueless about Britain.
Until the Conservatives ditch the right wing rabble rousing and win back the centre they will remain out of power. There is only enough oxygen on your Right for about 1/4 of the vote. Unless you win the other 1/4 which used to be the one nation tories you are lost.
Farage appears to be your latest in a long line of luv-ins but he is poison to far too many people right of centre to be anything other than a populist demagogue.
The trouble with you, Spode, is that just because you have succeeded in inducing a handful of half-wits to disfigure the London scene by going about in black shorts, you think you’re someone. You hear them shouting ‘Heil, Spode!’ and you imagine it is the Voice of the People. That is where you make your bloomer. What the Voice of the People is saying is: ‘Look at that frightful ass Spode swanking about in footer bags! Did you ever in your puff see such a perfect perisher?’
Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .
This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .
If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.
So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .
I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .
No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister
Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
You and the likes of Braverman are a good example of why the Right will be kept out of power for many years.
You are clueless about Britain.
Until the Conservatives ditch the right wing rabble rousing and win back the centre they will remain out of power. There is only enough oxygen on your Right for about 1/4 of the vote. Unless you win the other 1/4 which used to be the one nation tories you are lost.
Farage appears to be your latest in a long line of luv-ins but he is poison to far too many people right of centre to be anything other than a populist demagogue.
The trouble with you, Spode, is that just because you have succeeded in inducing a handful of half-wits to disfigure the London scene by going about in black shorts, you think you’re someone. You hear them shouting ‘Heil, Spode!’ and you imagine it is the Voice of the People. That is where you make your bloomer. What the Voice of the People is saying is: ‘Look at that frightful ass Spode swanking about in footer bags! Did you ever in your puff see such a perfect perisher?’
Brilliant!
P.G. Wodehouse was criticised for being 'lite' on the neo-fascists but it's all there if people bother to read him.
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Jesus.
Taking a pop at Zelensky?
That's a low. The guy's a fucking hero from a real war zone.
That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
The scramble from a few to speak of PM Farage is quite droll but misplaced.
The country is about to vote in a Labour Government with a HUGE majority. That is the story after July 4th and will be for some time to come. Not the tories. Not Farage.
The story will always focus on the government and the opposition (no matter how hapless/useless). We’re not a one party state.
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Jesus.
Taking a pop at Zelensky?
That's a low. The guy's a fucking hero from a real war zone.
That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
Does anyone think that Boris Johnson would have left early yesterday, and avoided the photo at the end with all the leaders including Zelensky?
Anyone?
Do you think he would have stayed for deeply respectful reasons, because he really wanted to honour the sacrifice or because he felt he needed to and wanted to hobnob with other leaders?
It seems Rishi is being slammed for disrespect rather than the opportunity to mix it with men in suits in a beach.
To be honest, a fair amount of both. Boris did understand his history, and would have understood the importance of the day, almost certainly the last time we’ll see WWII veterans at a public event. Boris would have shaken the hands of every last one of them, and stayed until the very end of the day.
I think the important difference is that Johnson understood that events like this weren't a distraction from the job, they are the job. The PM is a front man.
One of Sunak's problems is that he's a backroom details-oriented kind of person (me too!) and so he sees this sort of event as time when he can't be doing what he thinks he ought to be doing.
That’s an astute observation. Sunak doesn’t really understand that a big part of the top job is to be the front man, and that turning up and shaking hands means a lot to others.
He's a backroom boy and doesnt like the front of house stuff.
Indeed, so why did he put himself up for the top job in the first place?
I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.
We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.
No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
My good lady has just said about the Sunak story
'What a shambles' and she is not into politics
She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.
The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
I don't give a flying F about war commemorations but I have to agree with you on this. A spectacular gaffe and manna from heaven for Starmer and Farage.
If I were a Tory MP I'd generally be a Sunak supporter but today even I would be be penning my letter.
What a blunder by the Prime Minister. 75% of people probably won't mind or even care. The 25% who really mind are the very people he had left as his voters.
Except on the latest Redfield poll those are no longer the core vote of Sunak's Tory Party.
The latest Redfield has the Tories polling highest with 45-54 year olds on 22% now post debate and Farage return, second highest with 35-44 year olds and with 65+ year olds the Tories are now third on 17% behind Reform on 19%.
Indeed with 55 year olds and over Reform and Labour now beat the Tories, yet with under 55s the Sunak Tories still lead Reform
But it's the 55+ who are more likely to vote in the election
It's weird to say this but it's perfectly possible that Reform will beat the Tories at this election..
Are you suggesting this possibility by %vote or seats? %vote has a much higher chance than seats I'd have thought. Personally I'm tempted by 4-1 on Reform 0 seats and have laid Reform 7+ seats at ~4-1
That seems pretty brave. Worth mentioning that in 2015, UKIP were on 13% and Con on 36% nationally and UKIP won Clacton and got close in a couple of others (S Thanet, Thurrock).
If Reform are high teens and Con low twenties, then Reform should definitely be picking up seats. Reform's vote pattern should be somewhat similar to the LDs, where they have a huge swathe of seats with <10% (e.g Hackney, Glasgow, Cheltenham) and then maybe 50-100 where they can hope to get >30%. The difference with the LDs is whether Reform have the resources on the ground for canvassing, leafletting etc
They wont have, but if they get to crossover I suspect some large donors might appear.
I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.
We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.
No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
My good lady has just said about the Sunak story
'What a shambles' and she is not into politics
She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.
The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
Sunak pledges to retire at GE, Penny takes over the mantle of the campaign? At that point she could almost realistically say a vote for me is to give me a base to rebuild.
It would be a bizarre, bizarre situation but it’s starting to feel like something has to give.
Might be their best option. He is now toxic waste
Back to reality, and Penny will tonight stick to the same answers Sunak has lead with, lose her seat because of that, and never be heard of again.
It’s like an Agatha Christie, but knowing the who the murderer is before the murder has yet happened.
Good morning one and all. Bright and sunny here this morning, I’m glad to report.
Private Eye was commenting the other day that it was a bit surprising that the King seemed to just grant the PM’s request for a dissolution without much question or discussion, and suggested that the late Queen wouldn’t necessarily have done so. Now, we know that the DDay commemoration was scheduled; our PM wasn’t rung up at the last minute and told that Biden, Macron etc were going and he’d better, too. That’s not the way these things work. The point about the Scots holidays is a good one too; what’s more, plenty of parents schedule holidays for immediately after GCSE’s and/or A levels finish. Another clash. Then there’s the confusion over who’s standing where; a Party Leader surely has some idea of how ready the troops are. And so on. Either there’s something very, very good going to happen in the last week of June, or possibly something very nasty which is going to ‘unite the country’, or there’s something very nasty indeed going to happen in the early Autumn. Which is it?
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.
What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.
PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.
The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.
And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.
So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
There he blows!
New homes: 2.0 million Increase in households renting: 1.1 million Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million
It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.
An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.
Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.
The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):
YIMBY Gold award:
Selby Huntingdonshire Mid Suffolk Telford and Wrekin West Lindsey
NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom
Pendle Thurrock Swale Epping Forest Peterborough
Urban Excellence award: Southwark Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling) Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up) Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it) Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Jesus.
Taking a pop at Zelensky?
That's a low. The guy's a fucking hero from a real war zone.
That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Jesus.
Taking a pop at Zelensky?
That's a low. The guy's a fucking hero from a real war zone.
That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
Which is literally his uniform since day 1 of the war - turning up in anything else would be both wrong and inappropriate given that he is the leader of the country at war...
Does anyone think that Boris Johnson would have left early yesterday, and avoided the photo at the end with all the leaders including Zelensky?
Anyone?
Do you think he would have stayed for deeply respectful reasons, because he really wanted to honour the sacrifice or because he felt he needed to and wanted to hobnob with other leaders?
It seems Rishi is being slammed for disrespect rather than the opportunity to mix it with men in suits in a beach.
To be honest, a fair amount of both. Boris did understand his history, and would have understood the importance of the day, almost certainly the last time we’ll see WWII veterans at a public event. Boris would have shaken the hands of every last one of them, and stayed until the very end of the day.
I think the important difference is that Johnson understood that events like this weren't a distraction from the job, they are the job. The PM is a front man.
One of Sunak's problems is that he's a backroom details-oriented kind of person (me too!) and so he sees this sort of event as time when he can't be doing what he thinks he ought to be doing.
That’s an astute observation. Sunak doesn’t really understand that a big part of the top job is to be the front man, and that turning up and shaking hands means a lot to others.
He's a backroom boy and doesnt like the front of house stuff.
Indeed, so why did he put himself up for the top job in the first place?
Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.
What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.
PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.
The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.
And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.
So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
There he blows!
New homes: 2.0 million Increase in households renting: 1.1 million Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million
It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.
An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.
Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.
The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):
YIMBY Gold award:
Selby Huntingdonshire Mid Suffolk Telford and Wrekin West Lindsey
NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom
Pendle Thurrock Swale Epping Forest Peterborough
Urban Excellence award: Southwark Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling) Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up) Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it) Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
This glut is all in your head.
The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.
Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦♂️
Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .
This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .
If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.
So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .
I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .
No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister
Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
You and the likes of Braverman are a good example of why the Right will be kept out of power for many years.
You are clueless about Britain.
Until the Conservatives ditch the right wing rabble rousing and win back the centre they will remain out of power. There is only enough oxygen on your Right for about 1/4 of the vote. Unless you win the other 1/4 which used to be the one nation tories you are lost.
Farage appears to be your latest in a long line of luv-ins but he is poison to far too many people right of centre to be anything other than a populist demagogue.
Yes but if Farage wins over Tories he could do it.
Trump only got elected in 2016 and may only get elected in November as establishment Republicans and many Independents voted for him. Meloni in Italy got in with centre right Forza Italia support as well as that for her own hard right coalition.
In Canada Reform never got anywhere near power until they merged with the Canadian Tories in 2003
It's not clear to me Farage would be any good at defence.
A greater bastard would be along shortly demanding he drop the *Net* from the zero immigration target. And so on and so on.
Absolutey. The Cons tried to out extreme the extremists but the clue is in the name - extremists will always be beyond what everyone else is doing.
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
More specifically, he's said in various interviews, that he feels that
(a) wearing a suit feels detached from the realties of Ukraine (b) that it reminds people, when he goes to events, of the war.
Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.
What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.
PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.
The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.
And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.
So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
There he blows!
New homes: 2.0 million Increase in households renting: 1.1 million Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million
It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.
An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.
Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.
The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):
YIMBY Gold award:
Selby Huntingdonshire Mid Suffolk Telford and Wrekin West Lindsey
NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom
Pendle Thurrock Swale Epping Forest Peterborough
Urban Excellence award: Southwark Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling) Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up) Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it) Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
This glut is all in your head.
The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.
Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦♂️
8.2% increase in homes 6.1% increase in households 6.3% increase in population
Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.
What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.
PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.
The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.
And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.
So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
There he blows!
New homes: 2.0 million Increase in households renting: 1.1 million Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million
It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.
An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.
Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.
The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):
YIMBY Gold award:
Selby Huntingdonshire Mid Suffolk Telford and Wrekin West Lindsey
NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom
Pendle Thurrock Swale Epping Forest Peterborough
Urban Excellence award: Southwark Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling) Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up) Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it) Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
This glut is all in your head.
The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.
Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦♂️
8.2% increase in homes 6.1% increase in households 6.3% increase in population
Why are you lying?
Your households figure is a lie. You know this, so why repeat it?
People who are compelled to share a home as there's not enough houses are classed as one household. You know that, but you're repeating your lies anyway. 🤦♂️
The idea that t here's been a lesser increase in household demand than population increase, when our demographic changes mean there's even further household pressures, is so obviously false its remarkable your following through on this outright blatant lie.
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Jesus.
Taking a pop at Zelensky?
That's a low. The guy's a fucking hero from a real war zone.
That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
Which is literally his uniform since day 1 of the war - turning up in anything else would be both wrong and inappropriate given that he is the leader of the country at war...
80th year remembrance of the brave who fought in WW2 is a massive event and what do we get.
Scruffy fooker attends 80th anniversary of D Day dressed as a scruff.
I think it was totally disrespectful to those who gave there life.
Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?
Could you imagine Boris Johnson there? Photos with world leaders and Zelensky vs defending a lie on live tv. They'd have needed half of the SAS to drag him away.
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Jesus.
Taking a pop at Zelensky?
That's a low. The guy's a fucking hero from a real war zone.
That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
Zelensky had been a very successful performer for his entire career and he knows what's up. Dressing like a divorced dad at B&Q is his brand, and the fucker knows to keep the show on the road he has to stay on brand.
A large part of his electoral platform, back when Ukraine used to have elections, was that he was the anti-politician politician. The other plank of the platform was normalising relations with Russia but that didn't go so well so he's stuck with the anti-politician stuff. His rig of the day is a very visual way of emphasising that.
Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.
What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.
PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.
The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.
And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.
So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
There he blows!
New homes: 2.0 million Increase in households renting: 1.1 million Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million
It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
What's your definition of households as 1 to 1 relationship between households and new homes makes zero sense because the definition of a house of multiple occupation is multiple households (units) in the same house..
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
It's not about role play it's about respect for the WW2 fallen
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
More specifically, he's said in various interviews, that he feels that
(a) wearing a suit feels detached from the realties of Ukraine (b) that it reminds people, when he goes to events, of the war.
He’s not worn a suit since 24th February 2022. It reminds everyone, that his is a country at war.
Good morning one and all. Bright and sunny here this morning, I’m glad to report.
Private Eye was commenting the other day that it was a bit surprising that the King seemed to just grant the PM’s request for a dissolution without much question or discussion, and suggested that the late Queen wouldn’t necessarily have done so. Now, we know that the DDay commemoration was scheduled; our PM wasn’t rung up at the last minute and told that Biden, Macron etc were going and he’d better, too. That’s not the way these things work. The point about the Scots holidays is a good one too; what’s more, plenty of parents schedule holidays for immediately after GCSE’s and/or A levels finish. Another clash. Then there’s the confusion over who’s standing where; a Party Leader surely has some idea of how ready the troops are. And so on. Either there’s something very, very good going to happen in the last week of June, or possibly something very nasty which is going to ‘unite the country’, or there’s something very nasty indeed going to happen in the early Autumn. Which is it?
Don't know much about why Lascelles enunciated those Principles but they seem to be about almost winning an election and wanting another go, not fag end governments like this.
One sinister possibility is that they don't want a GE clashing with a royal funeral (which is perhaps your point)
Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.
What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.
PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.
The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.
And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.
So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
There he blows!
New homes: 2.0 million Increase in households renting: 1.1 million Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million
It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.
An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.
Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.
The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):
YIMBY Gold award:
Selby Huntingdonshire Mid Suffolk Telford and Wrekin West Lindsey
NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom
Pendle Thurrock Swale Epping Forest Peterborough
Urban Excellence award: Southwark Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling) Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up) Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it) Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
This glut is all in your head.
The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.
Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦♂️
8.2% increase in homes 6.1% increase in households 6.3% increase in population
Why are you lying?
Your households figure is a lie. You know this, so why repeat it?
People who are compelled to share a home as there's not enough houses are classed as one household. You know that, but you're repeating your lies anyway. 🤦♂️
The idea that t here's been a lesser increase in household demand than population increase, when our demographic changes mean there's even further household pressures, is so obviously false its remarkable your following through on this outright blatant lie.
The number of people per household has fallen, and overcrowding has fallen too.
Edit: sorry, the population per household has risen* This is explained by immigrants being much more efficient users of households than say older people
Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .
This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .
If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.
So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .
I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .
No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister
Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
What, in is history, makes you think Farage would be a competent, or even good, PM?
He just has to be better than Sunak. Or truss. Or Boris. Or may. Or Cameron. Or brown
It’s not a high bar and then suddenly he’s the best pm in a generation
Farage would set the new low for disastrous PMs.
Those who credit him with Brexit ignore one big fact: if he alone were the face of Brexit, many of us would not have voted for it. That Boris was the face of Brexit is what got it over the line. Left to Farage, we would now be inextricably linked with Brussels, for all time.
Farage is a Poundshop Trump.
No thank you.
Plus the fact Farage wasn’t actually involved in Cummings amazeballs campaign, that got the seemingly impossible done by selling to us how much bloody greener and tasty the grass was on the other side. It probably only worked by excluding Farage.
In Grahams brilliant screenplay, didn’t Cummings say “oh for fuck sake, no” when Farage showed up at the office?
Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.
What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.
PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.
The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.
And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.
So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
There he blows!
New homes: 2.0 million Increase in households renting: 1.1 million Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million
It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.
An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.
Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.
The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):
YIMBY Gold award:
Selby Huntingdonshire Mid Suffolk Telford and Wrekin West Lindsey
NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom
Pendle Thurrock Swale Epping Forest Peterborough
Urban Excellence award: Southwark Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling) Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up) Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it) Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
This glut is all in your head.
The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.
Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦♂️
8.2% increase in homes 6.1% increase in households 6.3% increase in population
Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.
What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.
PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.
The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.
And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.
So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
There he blows!
New homes: 2.0 million Increase in households renting: 1.1 million Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million
It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.
An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.
Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.
The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):
YIMBY Gold award:
Selby Huntingdonshire Mid Suffolk Telford and Wrekin West Lindsey
NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom
Pendle Thurrock Swale Epping Forest Peterborough
Urban Excellence award: Southwark Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling) Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up) Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it) Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
This glut is all in your head.
The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.
Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦♂️
8.2% increase in homes 6.1% increase in households 6.3% increase in population
To start with, the households number is bullshit.
This is because people forced into a flat/house share are counted as a household.
An example - at work, one of the juniors lived in a three bed flat. Three people sharing, one household. The landlord came in and divided the large living room into two more rooms. So five people now share a single flat.
Is that the housing crisis getting better or worse?
As to claims of a glut - occupancy of property in the UK is something north of 98%. Which is a sign of a very stressed market.
France, with a similar population, has 8 million more properties than us.
Conservatives have turned off their digital ad campaigns...
They could have transferred to a third party - but that is unlikely as they'd surely want to use the Sunak and Conservatives facebook page. Any other theories for why this has happened?
They have decided to cancel the election before close of nominations this afternoon. Rishi has a Plan. This is the plan.
So tonight Penny Mordaunt, candidate for one of the most military heavy seats in the country, has to defend Sunak not really being arsed for D-Day. Odds on her going majorly off script to try and save herself?
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
More specifically, he's said in various interviews, that he feels that
(a) wearing a suit feels detached from the realties of Ukraine (b) that it reminds people, when he goes to events, of the war.
He’s not worn a suit since 24th February 2022. It reminds everyone, that his is a country at war.
Suits especially with ties are just uncomfortable. So may as well get some little benefit from being invaded by making a virtue of ditching them.
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
It's not about role play it's about respect for the WW2 fallen
No vetran would object to the clothes that Zelenskys wears - because that's the uniform he's worn for the past 2 years while he leads a country at war.
WW2 was a previous war, Ukraine is currently fighting the next war at this moment...
Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.
What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.
PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.
The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.
And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.
So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
There he blows!
New homes: 2.0 million Increase in households renting: 1.1 million Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million
It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.
An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.
Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.
The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):
YIMBY Gold award:
Selby Huntingdonshire Mid Suffolk Telford and Wrekin West Lindsey
NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom
Pendle Thurrock Swale Epping Forest Peterborough
Urban Excellence award: Southwark Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling) Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up) Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it) Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
This glut is all in your head.
The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.
Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦♂️
8.2% increase in homes 6.1% increase in households 6.3% increase in population
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
I did notice that. Seemed an odd choice of outfit for a memorial I must say. But given the problems his country is having, seemed a mean point to make.
Good morning one and all. Bright and sunny here this morning, I’m glad to report.
Private Eye was commenting the other day that it was a bit surprising that the King seemed to just grant the PM’s request for a dissolution without much question or discussion, and suggested that the late Queen wouldn’t necessarily have done so. Now, we know that the DDay commemoration was scheduled; our PM wasn’t rung up at the last minute and told that Biden, Macron etc were going and he’d better, too. That’s not the way these things work. The point about the Scots holidays is a good one too; what’s more, plenty of parents schedule holidays for immediately after GCSE’s and/or A levels finish. Another clash. Then there’s the confusion over who’s standing where; a Party Leader surely has some idea of how ready the troops are. And so on. Either there’s something very, very good going to happen in the last week of June, or possibly something very nasty which is going to ‘unite the country’, or there’s something very nasty indeed going to happen in the early Autumn. Which is it?
Something very, very good is going to happen on 4th July, is my guess.
I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.
We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.
No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
My good lady has just said about the Sunak story
'What a shambles' and she is not into politics
She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.
The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
Sunak pledges to retire at GE, Penny takes over the mantle of the campaign? At that point she could almost realistically say a vote for me is to give me a base to rebuild.
It would be a bizarre, bizarre situation but it’s starting to feel like something has to give.
Might be their best option. He is now toxic waste
But in fact that would mean the Tories were seeking re-election without anyone knowing who would become prime minister. It may be that would be better than knowing Sunak would become* prime minister, but it's really not feasible.
[* I suppose I should have said "remain prime minister"?]
BETTING POST ---------------- In 2015 Farage came close to winning South Thanet, falling 5.7pp short. The seat has been modified somewhat with the boundary changes, to become Thanet East.
The popular Tory incumbent, Craig Mackinlay, is not standing for re-election due to the timing of the election and his recovery following sepsis.
Oddschecker has Reform at 20/1, though according to Wikipedia, neither the Tories or Reform have a declared candidate.
Do you own research, but looks like a good bet to me.
So imagine Reform entering the Commons with 3 MPs (Farage, Tice and Anderson). Tories come back with less than 100 and the two parties merge. What's the mechanism for Farage to become the leader of the merged party? What's then stopping the centre-right wing of the party to walk out in an echo of 1981?
The D-Day fiasco has got to knock the Tory polling back a few % and below Reform, surely?
This campaign is beginning to make May's look not too bad.
Indeed. It does seem to be self-sabotaging itself. I am not sure it is Sunak - albeit he is the boss so should crack the whip. From day one it has been a bit of a shower.
The launch was laughable. No one looked at the weather forecast. And it seems did not know that they were not allowed to do it inside Number 10. You would have thought they could have lined up a local school or something.
Going home yesterday was symptomatic of the screw ups. Fancy leaving Starmer the opportunity to look prime ministerial during an election campaign. Are they idiots! The interview doesn’t screen until next week. If it was something for now there may be more sympathy, but all I sense is derision.
The being sent to the titanic you can definitely place the fault on your team, in those situations you are just been driven from place to place.
When you are at a massive WW2 commemorations, major world leaders and royalty are there, whatever your team tell you is up next you tell them to get stuffed, particularly if it is just an ITV interview (they will reschedule).
ITV are briefing that the interview was filmed yesterday at the Tories’ behest, not the other way around.
More on that ITV briefing re #ddayinterviewgate:
Rishi Sunak says: “This anniversary should be about those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country. The last thing I want is for the commemorations to be overshadowed by politics.”
Paul Brand, ITV News reporter, says: “Today was the slot that we were offered, we don't know why. Obviously it's not our choice, but he certainly returned from Normandy ready to dive back into the campaign.”
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
It's not about role play it's about respect for the WW2 fallen
No vetran would object to the clothes that Zelenskys wears - because that's the uniform he's worn for the past 2 years while he leads a country at war.
Churchill spent a considerable chunk of the war wearing a boiler suit.
Made by Turnbull & Asser, to be sure. They still have one in their collection at Jermyn Street.
So on Monday pre Farage I put a lot of Trading bets on Reform and the LDs with the intention of cashing out this weekend, after Farage’s debate appearance tonight.
At this rate, it is surely better to hold them until next week, where we might get some more strong Reform showings in the polls after the D-Day issue has had cut through… thoughts?
Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.
What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.
PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.
The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.
And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.
So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
There he blows!
New homes: 2.0 million Increase in households renting: 1.1 million Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million
It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.
An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.
Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.
The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):
YIMBY Gold award:
Selby Huntingdonshire Mid Suffolk Telford and Wrekin West Lindsey
NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom
Pendle Thurrock Swale Epping Forest Peterborough
Urban Excellence award: Southwark Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling) Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up) Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it) Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
This glut is all in your head.
The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.
Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦♂️
8.2% increase in homes 6.1% increase in households 6.3% increase in population
To what time period do your figures relate?
2011 - 2021.
So we need to build a lot more than 8.2% in order to reverse the increase in house prices and rents even to 2011 notwithstanding the accuracy of your figures.
Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.
What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.
PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.
The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.
And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.
So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
There he blows!
New homes: 2.0 million Increase in households renting: 1.1 million Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million
It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.
An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.
Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.
The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):
YIMBY Gold award:
Selby Huntingdonshire Mid Suffolk Telford and Wrekin West Lindsey
NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom
Pendle Thurrock Swale Epping Forest Peterborough
Urban Excellence award: Southwark Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling) Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up) Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it) Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
This glut is all in your head.
The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.
Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦♂️
8.2% increase in homes 6.1% increase in households 6.3% increase in population
To start with, the households number is bullshit.
This is because people forced into a flat/house share are counted as a household.
An example - at work, one of the juniors lived in a three bed flat. Three people sharing, one household. The landlord came in and divided the large living room into two more rooms. So five people now share a single flat.
Is that the housing crisis getting better or worse?
As to claims of a glut - occupancy of property in the UK is something north of 98%. Which is a sign of a very stressed market.
France, with a similar population, has 8 million more properties than us.
I don't doubt that has happened in some dwellings. But the fact is that overall total number of dwellings has increased, the total number of spare bedrooms has increased, and overcrowding has fallen.
Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.
What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.
PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.
The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.
And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.
So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
There he blows!
New homes: 2.0 million Increase in households renting: 1.1 million Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million
It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.
An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.
Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.
The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):
YIMBY Gold award:
Selby Huntingdonshire Mid Suffolk Telford and Wrekin West Lindsey
NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom
Pendle Thurrock Swale Epping Forest Peterborough
Urban Excellence award: Southwark Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling) Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up) Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it) Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
This glut is all in your head.
The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.
Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦♂️
8.2% increase in homes 6.1% increase in households 6.3% increase in population
To what time period do your figures relate?
2011 - 2021.
So we need to build a lot more than 8.2% in order to reverse the increase in house prices and rents even to 2011 notwithstanding the accuracy of your figures.
I think that is probably true. But I'll check the 2001 - 2011 stats first...
The general point I'm trying to make is that there is huge variance across the country in terms of housing pressure, and the only way to assuage that is to spread economic demand around more evenly. Building lots of houses in Cumbria does nowt for house prices in London.
And while increased supply will help with the large increase in people in renting, it cannot be the only intervention. The number of cash buyers floating around prohibits young people getting on the ladder.
So on Monday pre Farage I put a lot of Trading bets on Reform and the LDs with the intention of cashing out this weekend, after Farage’s debate appearance tonight.
At this rate, it is surely better to hold them until next week, where we might get some more strong Reform showings in the polls after the D-Day issue has had cut through… thoughts?
Keep some, I expect crossover early next week, then dump as they (should) start drifting back
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
More specifically, he's said in various interviews, that he feels that
(a) wearing a suit feels detached from the realties of Ukraine (b) that it reminds people, when he goes to events, of the war.
He’s not worn a suit since 24th February 2022. It reminds everyone, that his is a country at war.
Suits especially with ties are just uncomfortable. So may as well get some little benefit from being invaded by making a virtue of ditching them.
Suits are only uncomfortable if they are a poor fit. It takes a bit of getting used to the way you wear them - hence the story of Broccoli getting Sean Connery to wear a DJ non-stop, and even sleep in it, to really feel at home in it.
So tonight Penny Mordaunt, candidate for one of the most military heavy seats in the country, has to defend Sunak not really being arsed for D-Day. Odds on her going majorly off script to try and save herself?
Odds on I expect. The thing to watch on election night is once the exit poll has been announced how many Tories release themselves from their self imposed vows of silence. The recriminations could be epic to watch.
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
I did notice that. Seemed an odd choice of outfit for a memorial I must say. But given the problems his country is having, seemed a mean point to make.
He's been wearing the same type of clothes to all official events since the war started.
As a reminder of the war.
It's a deliberate choice and one that everyone he meets seems to have no problem with.
Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.
What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.
PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.
The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.
And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.
So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
There he blows!
New homes: 2.0 million Increase in households renting: 1.1 million Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million
It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.
An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.
Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.
The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):
YIMBY Gold award:
Selby Huntingdonshire Mid Suffolk Telford and Wrekin West Lindsey
NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom
Pendle Thurrock Swale Epping Forest Peterborough
Urban Excellence award: Southwark Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling) Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up) Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it) Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
This glut is all in your head.
The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.
Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦♂️
8.2% increase in homes 6.1% increase in households 6.3% increase in population
To start with, the households number is bullshit.
This is because people forced into a flat/house share are counted as a household.
An example - at work, one of the juniors lived in a three bed flat. Three people sharing, one household. The landlord came in and divided the large living room into two more rooms. So five people now share a single flat.
Is that the housing crisis getting better or worse?
As to claims of a glut - occupancy of property in the UK is something north of 98%. Which is a sign of a very stressed market.
France, with a similar population, has 8 million more properties than us.
A household is either a single person or members of the same family who live together. A family includes people who are:
married or living together - including people in same-sex relationships relatives or half-relatives, for example grandparents, aunts, uncles, siblings step-parents and step-children
but the point is a simple one a lot of people are being forced into HMO's because they cannot afford to rent a place by themselves...
Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.
What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.
PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.
The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.
And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.
So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
There he blows!
New homes: 2.0 million Increase in households renting: 1.1 million Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million
It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.
An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.
Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.
The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):
YIMBY Gold award:
Selby Huntingdonshire Mid Suffolk Telford and Wrekin West Lindsey
NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom
Pendle Thurrock Swale Epping Forest Peterborough
Urban Excellence award: Southwark Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling) Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up) Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it) Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
This glut is all in your head.
The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.
Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦♂️
8.2% increase in homes 6.1% increase in households 6.3% increase in population
Why are you lying?
Your households figure is a lie. You know this, so why repeat it?
People who are compelled to share a home as there's not enough houses are classed as one household. You know that, but you're repeating your lies anyway. 🤦♂️
The idea that t here's been a lesser increase in household demand than population increase, when our demographic changes mean there's even further household pressures, is so obviously false its remarkable your following through on this outright blatant lie.
The number of people per household has fallen, and overcrowding has fallen too.
Edit: sorry, the population per household has risen* This is explained by immigrants being much more efficient users of households than say older people
The number of people per household should have fallen as we have 4 million extra over 50s than we did. Who don't live with children.🤦♂️
Immigration doesn't counter that.
Your own data reveals the chronic housing shortage. Again!
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
I did notice that. Seemed an odd choice of outfit for a memorial I must say. But given the problems his country is having, seemed a mean point to make.
He's been wearing the same type of clothes to all official events since the war started.
As a reminder of the war.
It's a deliberate choice and one that everyone he meets seems to have no problem with.
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
More specifically, he's said in various interviews, that he feels that
(a) wearing a suit feels detached from the realties of Ukraine (b) that it reminds people, when he goes to events, of the war.
He’s not worn a suit since 24th February 2022. It reminds everyone, that his is a country at war.
Suits especially with ties are just uncomfortable. So may as well get some little benefit from being invaded by making a virtue of ditching them.
Suits are only uncomfortable if they are a poor fit. It takes a bit of getting used to the way you wear them - hence the story of Broccoli getting Sean Connery to wear a DJ non-stop, and even sleep in it, to really feel at home in it.
Because I work in a lot of places where people don't wear suits a fair number of people comment how comfortable I look in one. That's simply because I did use to wear them all the time..
So tonight Penny Mordaunt, candidate for one of the most military heavy seats in the country, has to defend Sunak not really being arsed for D-Day. Odds on her going majorly off script to try and save herself?
Good grief - Lab are narrow favourites to win Portsmouth North.
Has anyone thought through the consequences for RS in his Richmond Constituency? It includes the UK’S largest garrison at Catterick and important RAF base as well. He could easily lose his seat now!
Does anyone think that Boris Johnson would have left early yesterday, and avoided the photo at the end with all the leaders including Zelensky?
Anyone?
Do you think he would have stayed for deeply respectful reasons, because he really wanted to honour the sacrifice or because he felt he needed to and wanted to hobnob with other leaders?
It seems Rishi is being slammed for disrespect rather than the opportunity to mix it with men in suits in a beach.
To be honest, a fair amount of both. Boris did understand his history, and would have understood the importance of the day, almost certainly the last time we’ll see WWII veterans at a public event. Boris would have shaken the hands of every last one of them, and stayed until the very end of the day.
I think the important difference is that Johnson understood that events like this weren't a distraction from the job, they are the job. The PM is a front man.
One of Sunak's problems is that he's a backroom details-oriented kind of person (me too!) and so he sees this sort of event as time when he can't be doing what he thinks he ought to be doing.
That’s an astute observation. Sunak doesn’t really understand that a big part of the top job is to be the front man, and that turning up and shaking hands means a lot to others.
The absolute top job, like PM, involves showing up (and deciding either to show up absolutely or stay away absolutely) and making the impossible calls between actual choices. Everything else, including compiling the list of choices, can be delegated.
Boris excelled at showing up. For a long time Blair and Thatcher excelled at both, but not for ever. Sunak seems to have neither quite sorted. So far Starmer excels at both. History suggests that his Waterloo, Iraq, Poll tax, Brexit referendum result awaits. There will be no betting market on this, but it's a fascinating question.
Has anyone thought through the consequences for RS in his Richmond Constituency? It includes the UK’S largest garrison at Catterick and important RAF base as well. He could easily lose his seat now!
Does anyone really care? I mean apart from pissing off his retired colonel base and reinforcing the fact that he has a tin ear for politics and should retire instantly and pretend his whole premiership never happened, is anyone going to change votes on account of this?
Sunak had better hope his early departure from the D Day events doesn’t gain further traction . I still can’t understand the logic of what he did . Saying you’ll see world leaders next week at the G7 is irrelevant . This is probably the last time any of those veterans will be there and it just looks like he could care less .
If he'd stayed and missed other interviews and appointments he'd have been criticised as well for being absent from the campaign. The mood is to criticise Sunak for being Sunak.
Absolutely no-one cares about this and it will have zero impact on the campaign or the GE result.
“he'd have been criticised as well for being absent from the campaign”
But it was widely agreed to be a day off for the campaign to focus on the commemorations.
You have it the wrong way round, to sneak away from the break in campaigning, to slip in sneaky campaigning looks bad.
Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.
Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.
All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
Nice try, Comrade,
The shit is only flying in one direction.
Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
More specifically, he's said in various interviews, that he feels that
(a) wearing a suit feels detached from the realties of Ukraine (b) that it reminds people, when he goes to events, of the war.
He’s not worn a suit since 24th February 2022. It reminds everyone, that his is a country at war.
Suits especially with ties are just uncomfortable. So may as well get some little benefit from being invaded by making a virtue of ditching them.
Suits are only uncomfortable if they are a poor fit. It takes a bit of getting used to the way you wear them - hence the story of Broccoli getting Sean Connery to wear a DJ non-stop, and even sleep in it, to really feel at home in it.
Sounds a bit like the runners who carry a fridge on their back for the London marathon. Do it long enough and it starts to feel natural. But not comfortable.
I thought the low bar set by Brown in 2010 for GE campaign incompetence by a PM would never be surpassed, but Rishi is quite unbelievable in his staggering ineptitude.
I've been broadly sympathetic to his plight and much as it pains me to do so, expecting to put a cross in the blue box despite zero prospect of a Tory hold in my ultra marginal seat even if the polls had been neck and neck.
I'm resigned to Labour, have been for 3 years, and accept one party can't stay in power for more than 14/15 years, I'm fine with Keir as PM, dull as he'll probably be, but I'm utterly depressed at the thought of the Tories being wiped out and Labour having a stupendous majority that will keep them/ the left in power for a generation. And that I'll be totally disenfranchised if my only prospect is to vote for some Faragist rabble.
I'm 47. I could be approaching my 70s before the country swings back to the centre right, if it ever does at all.
I'm so depressed about this, as someone who's taken a close interest in politics for maybe 35 years. Sad.
Comments
If Reform are high teens and Con low twenties, then Reform should definitely be picking up seats. Reform's vote pattern should be somewhat similar to the LDs, where they have a huge swathe of seats with <10% (e.g Hackney, Glasgow, Cheltenham) and then maybe 50-100 where they can hope to get >30%. The difference with the LDs is whether Reform have the resources on the ground for canvassing, leafletting etc
The opening conservative spread was 150-158. It is currently 112-120
It was suggested that at the time the spread was about right.
How things change over a fortnight.
Much like Sunak
It’s like an Agatha Christie, but knowing the who the murderer is before the murder has yet happened.
Private Eye was commenting the other day that it was a bit surprising that the King seemed to just grant the PM’s request for a dissolution without much question or discussion, and suggested that the late Queen wouldn’t necessarily have done so.
Now, we know that the DDay commemoration was scheduled; our PM wasn’t rung up at the last minute and told that Biden, Macron etc were going and he’d better, too. That’s not the way these things work.
The point about the Scots holidays is a good one too; what’s more, plenty of parents schedule holidays for immediately after GCSE’s and/or A levels finish. Another clash.
Then there’s the confusion over who’s standing where; a Party Leader surely has some idea of how ready the troops are.
And so on.
Either there’s something very, very good going to happen in the last week of June, or possibly something very nasty which is going to ‘unite the country’, or there’s something very nasty indeed going to happen in the early Autumn.
Which is it?
The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):
YIMBY Gold award:
Selby
Huntingdonshire
Mid Suffolk
Telford and Wrekin
West Lindsey
NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom
Pendle
Thurrock
Swale
Epping Forest
Peterborough
Urban Excellence award: Southwark
Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
It's ridiculous you are defending it.
Hell no
Brown, May, Truss and Sunak - desk jockeys.
And it keeps the world focused on the ongoing battle for Ukraine's survival.
FFS @bigjohnowls drop that attack line
The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.
Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦♂️
https://youtu.be/jKmzyIq1U10?si=aM2Ls83WcmNXa5uv
(a) wearing a suit feels detached from the realties of Ukraine
(b) that it reminds people, when he goes to events, of the war.
From 2013 - Talk of Reverse takeover of Conservative by Reform party
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21894316
From 2023 - Having set up Reform party says will be Conservative leader by 2026
https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-leader-uk-conservative-party-2026/
This week - https://news.sky.com/story/nigel-farage-sets-out-plan-for-reverse-takeover-of-conservative-party-13147634
"I don't want to join the Conservative Party, I think the better thing to do would be to take it over."
6.1% increase in households
6.3% increase in population
"tl;dr"
Your households figure is a lie. You know this, so why repeat it?
People who are compelled to share a home as there's not enough houses are classed as one household. You know that, but you're repeating your lies anyway. 🤦♂️
The idea that t here's been a lesser increase in household demand than population increase, when our demographic changes mean there's even further household pressures, is so obviously false its remarkable your following through on this outright blatant lie.
Scruffy fooker attends 80th anniversary of D Day dressed as a scruff.
I think it was totally disrespectful to those who gave there life.
A large part of his electoral platform, back when Ukraine used to have elections, was that he was the anti-politician politician. The other plank of the platform was normalising relations with Russia but that didn't go so well so he's stuck with the anti-politician stuff. His rig of the day is a very visual way of emphasising that.
One sinister possibility is that they don't want a GE clashing with a royal funeral (which is perhaps your point)
Edit: sorry, the population per household has risen* This is explained by immigrants being much more efficient users of households than say older people
In Grahams brilliant screenplay, didn’t Cummings say “oh for fuck sake, no” when Farage showed up at the office?
This is because people forced into a flat/house share are counted as a household.
An example - at work, one of the juniors lived in a three bed flat. Three people sharing, one household. The landlord came in and divided the large living room into two more rooms. So five people now share a single flat.
Is that the housing crisis getting better or worse?
As to claims of a glut - occupancy of property in the UK is something north of 98%. Which is a sign of a very stressed market.
France, with a similar population, has 8 million more properties than us.
WW2 was a previous war, Ukraine is currently fighting the next war at this moment...
[* I suppose I should have said "remain prime minister"?]
----------------
In 2015 Farage came close to winning South Thanet, falling 5.7pp short. The seat has been modified somewhat with the boundary changes, to become Thanet East.
The popular Tory incumbent, Craig Mackinlay, is not standing for re-election due to the timing of the election and his recovery following sepsis.
Oddschecker has Reform at 20/1, though according to Wikipedia, neither the Tories or Reform have a declared candidate.
Do you own research, but looks like a good bet to me.
Rishi Sunak says: “This anniversary should be about those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country. The last thing I want is for the commemorations to be overshadowed by politics.”
Paul Brand, ITV News reporter, says: “Today was the slot that we were offered, we don't know why. Obviously it's not our choice, but he certainly returned from Normandy ready to dive back into the campaign.”
Julie Etchingham, ITV News presenter and election debate moderator, says: “Gentlemen, PLEASE!”
Made by Turnbull & Asser, to be sure. They still have one in their collection at Jermyn Street.
At this rate, it is surely better to hold them until next week, where we might get some more strong Reform showings in the polls after the D-Day issue has had cut through… thoughts?
The general point I'm trying to make is that there is huge variance across the country in terms of housing pressure, and the only way to assuage that is to spread economic demand around more evenly. Building lots of houses in Cumbria does nowt for house prices in London.
And while increased supply will help with the large increase in people in renting, it cannot be the only intervention. The number of cash buyers floating around prohibits young people getting on the ladder.
Well I didn't think we'd be offering this market again...
Will Rishi Sunak lead the Tories at the next General Election (July 4th)?
Yes - 1/14
No - 6/1
https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/1799006884495827379
....
As a reminder of the war.
It's a deliberate choice and one that everyone he meets seems to have no problem with.
A household is either a single person or members of the same family who live together. A family includes people who are:
married or living together - including people in same-sex relationships
relatives or half-relatives, for example grandparents, aunts, uncles, siblings
step-parents and step-children
but the point is a simple one a lot of people are being forced into HMO's because they cannot afford to rent a place by themselves...
Immigration doesn't counter that.
Your own data reveals the chronic housing shortage. Again!
First proper day cycling.
Boris excelled at showing up. For a long time Blair and Thatcher excelled at both, but not for ever. Sunak seems to have neither quite sorted. So far Starmer excels at both. History suggests that his Waterloo, Iraq, Poll tax, Brexit referendum result awaits. There will be no betting market on this, but it's a fascinating question.
But it was widely agreed to be a day off for the campaign to focus on the commemorations.
You have it the wrong way round, to sneak away from the break in campaigning, to slip in sneaky campaigning looks bad.
I've been broadly sympathetic to his plight and much as it pains me to do so, expecting to put a cross in the blue box despite zero prospect of a Tory hold in my ultra marginal seat even if the polls had been neck and neck.
I'm resigned to Labour, have been for 3 years, and accept one party can't stay in power for more than 14/15 years, I'm fine with Keir as PM, dull as he'll probably be, but I'm utterly depressed at the thought of the Tories being wiped out and Labour having a stupendous majority that will keep them/ the left in power for a generation. And that I'll be totally disenfranchised if my only prospect is to vote for some Faragist rabble.
I'm 47. I could be approaching my 70s before the country swings back to the centre right, if it ever does at all.
I'm so depressed about this, as someone who's taken a close interest in politics for maybe 35 years. Sad.