Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

And From The Other Side of the Pond… – politicalbetting.com

1131416181927

Comments

  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
    I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
    Sunak pledges to retire at GE, Penny takes over the mantle of the campaign? At that point she could almost realistically say a vote for me is to give me a base to rebuild.

    It would be a bizarre, bizarre situation but it’s starting to feel like something has to give.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    Sandpit said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone think that Boris Johnson would have left early yesterday, and avoided the photo at the end with all the leaders including Zelensky?

    Anyone?

    Do you think he would have stayed for deeply respectful reasons, because he really wanted to honour the sacrifice or because he felt he needed to and wanted to hobnob with other leaders?

    It seems Rishi is being slammed for disrespect rather than the opportunity to mix it with men in suits in a beach.
    To be honest, a fair amount of both. Boris did understand his history, and would have understood the importance of the day, almost certainly the last time we’ll see WWII veterans at a public event. Boris would have shaken the hands of every last one of them, and stayed until the very end of the day.
    I think the important difference is that Johnson understood that events like this weren't a distraction from the job, they are the job. The PM is a front man.

    One of Sunak's problems is that he's a backroom details-oriented kind of person (me too!) and so he sees this sort of event as time when he can't be doing what he thinks he ought to be doing.
    That’s an astute observation. Sunak doesn’t really understand that a big part of the top job is to be the front man, and that turning up and shaking hands means a lot to others.
  • Options
    Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 7
    edited June 7
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    You and the likes of Braverman are a good example of why the Right will be kept out of power for many years.

    You are clueless about Britain.

    Until the Conservatives ditch the right wing rabble rousing and win back the centre they will remain out of power. There is only enough oxygen on your Right for about 1/4 of the vote. Unless you win the other 1/4 which used to be the one nation tories you are lost.

    Farage appears to be your latest in a long line of luv-ins but he is poison to far too many people right of centre to be anything other than a populist demagogue.
    Yes but if Farage wins over Tories he could do it.

    Trump only got elected in 2016 and may only get elected in November as establishment Republicans and many Independents voted for him. Meloni in Italy got in with centre right Forza Italia support as well as that for her own hard right coalition.

    In Canada Reform never got anywhere near power until they merged with the Canadian Tories in 2003
    It's not clear to me Farage would be any good at defence.

    A greater bastard would be along shortly demanding he drop the *Net* from the zero immigration target. And so on and so on.
  • Options
    MuesliMuesli Posts: 128

    The D-Day fiasco has got to knock the Tory polling back a few % and below Reform, surely?

    This campaign is beginning to make May's look not too bad.

    Indeed. It does seem to be self-sabotaging itself. I am not sure it is Sunak - albeit he is the boss so should crack the whip. From day one it has been a bit of a shower.

    The launch was laughable. No one looked at the weather forecast. And it seems did not know that they were not allowed to do it inside Number 10. You would have thought they could have lined up a local school or something.

    Going home yesterday was symptomatic of the screw ups. Fancy leaving Starmer the opportunity to look prime ministerial during an election campaign. Are they idiots! The interview doesn’t screen until next week. If it was something for now there may be more sympathy, but all I sense is derision.
    The being sent to the titanic you can definitely place the fault on your team, in those situations you are just been driven from place to place.

    When you are at a massive WW2 commemorations, major world leaders and royalty are there, whatever your team tell you is up next you tell them to get stuffed, particularly if it is just an ITV interview (they will reschedule).
    ITV are briefing that the interview was filmed yesterday at the Tories’ behest, not the other way around.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,743
    Hang on, isn't Catterick in his constituency?????

    This seems pretty terminal for his chances of re-election.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,791
    Re Header - I agree and posted such a couple of days ago. Biden too high at 2.86 (or, alternatively, Trump a lay at 1.88).
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,136

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
    I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
    It's far too late. The narrative has been set, both by Sunak and his most previous predecessors. The Tory brand is covered in faeces, and it will take years to clean it. Not weeks.
    Oh I'm talking to save 100 instead of being fourth party with 10. They're screwed, they need to work out how to be least screwed
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,676

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,203

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,388

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    Someone forgot to top up their online accounts.
    They finally realised that the Labour Party has hacked into the AI that's been running their campaign?
  • Options
    DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 100
    The scramble from a few to speak of PM Farage is quite droll but misplaced.

    The country is about to vote in a Labour Government with a HUGE majority. That is the story after July 4th and will be for some time to come. Not the tories. Not Farage.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,398
    Sandpit said:

    boulay said:

    Who the hell is advising Number 10? Maggie would never have left D-Day early. Partly because she had too much political nous, but also Sir Bernard Ingham would have known it was a crass thing to do.

    The Tories need to get rid of the bright young things and replace them with a bunch of late middle-aged curmudgeonly Yorkshire blokes... They'd know the score.

    They do need to call in a rescue team and get rid of the idiots running the show right now.

    There is clearly nobody who thinks the Tories can win or even be largest party so it makes sense to run a campaign to save as many seats as possible, parachute in centrists so when the next leader is chosen it’s from the less fruitcakey wing, really push Labour on tax plans whilst not being exactly honest about the Tories own plans, because they will never have to be tested.

    However they need to get people in who look at what he’s going to say, where he’s going and actually think - should you be doing this, what can go wrong. Some “no people” rather than “yes men”.

    Strip everything back to taxes, immigration, and the odd culture war treat. Remember they can say what they like for dog whistles because they will never have to enact it. Just save seats. This is another election where it’s good to lose (yes I know nobody wants to lose and be out of power).
    Immigration as a Tory push button has gone. Raise it and you are just sending attention and votes to Reform far quicker than you will persuade Labour voters.

    All he really has is taxes (weak as own history and forecasts at least as bad) and what is a woman. Good luck with that.
    Sunak vs Farage on immigration, is going to be like Mike Tyson vs Marvis Frazier.
    Of course Farage can't solve the keep the health and care services, fund the university sector to help balance of payments and have virtually no net immigration any more than anyone else can. But he can talk the talk and has no accountability for what has already happened.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Penny Mordaunt could sink Richi tonight.

    She might have to, to save her seat.

    She will have to - given the make up of her seat - if she supports Rishi leaving early a lot of military / ex- military are going to be very annoyed
    I was thinking about this too. I would put her seat chances at 50/50. But if she says boat crossing are down, waiting lists are down, Rwanda will be fabulous deterrent and smash the gangs, pensioners have never paid tax, the 2K Lie wasn’t made up by SPADs in an echo chamber the treasury really did do so much if it, and be on receiving of all the ridicule and anger for saying all these things, it’s not going to help her in her own seat battle at all. She might not be an option in the Tory Leadership election. 😕
    This is the damage Boris and Sunak have done to the party. Succession planning, that puts party first rather than cosy echo chamber around yourself. Rather than a broad tent, where talent has been given experience, and next leader can be picked from a wide list of tried and tested talent - one of many things that helped Conservative Party be so successful in the past - the next Conservative LOTO and team around them could be very untested and mystery if they will be any good or not. ☹️
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,136

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
    I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
    Sunak pledges to retire at GE, Penny takes over the mantle of the campaign? At that point she could almost realistically say a vote for me is to give me a base to rebuild.

    It would be a bizarre, bizarre situation but it’s starting to feel like something has to give.
    Might be their best option. He is now toxic waste
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,301

    Shall we have a sweep on who will be the last PB-Tory standing? CR or HY? Any other contenders?

    Me!
    You don't understand. I could'a had class, I could'a been a contender, I could'a been somebody

  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,562

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    The actual veterans of Overlord* seemed to be OK with his dress code.

    *D-Day is actually a mistaken name.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,791

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
    I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
    I don't give a flying F about war commemorations but I have to agree with you on this. A spectacular gaffe and manna from heaven for Starmer and Farage.

    If I were a Tory MP I'd generally be a Sunak supporter but today even I would be be penning my letter.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,316

    The scramble from a few to speak of PM Farage is quite droll but misplaced.

    The country is about to vote in a Labour Government with a HUGE majority. That is the story after July 4th and will be for some time to come. Not the tories. Not Farage.

    Oh good, that's a keeper.

    Let''s see how things develop.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,254

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    The interesting market at this point is who might be the official opposition. Surely not the SNP. The yellow peril I suppose, unless farage can clear the FPTP bar.

  • Options
    Good morning all. I have bet with my friends on the tories winning 175 seats. I have also included a margin of error of 10 seats either way as in 165 or 185 . From now to the election I would say YouGov will come out with a poll showing the Tories on 35 seats and reform 10 points in front of the Tories. I believe many reform voters will vote Tory at election time. So between now and then many things could happen that may alter the way people could vote. There is a question of the shy Tory vote. The do not knows and the people who live in rural constiuencies whose families have always voted Tory For in excess of the last forty years and might well continue to do so. A big part of the fun of this site is following daily events and developments in the election race. However we know that we are in for a new goverment. The polls in 2015 were wrong. My feeling is they are wrong again this time. Not long to go to the big night!
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,300
    "Lord Sumption quits Hong Kong court amid crackdown fears

    Two judges become the latest to resign from part-time position in the territory after pressure from ministers and campaigners"

    https://www.thetimes.com/world/asia/article/lord-sumption-quits-hong-kong-court-amid-crackdown-fears-75b7x35mj
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,333
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

    An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

    Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
  • Options
    DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 100

    Good morning all. I have bet with my friends on the tories winning 175 seats. I have also included a margin of error of 10 seats either way as in 165 or 185 . From now to the election I would say YouGov will come out with a poll showing the Tories on 35 seats and reform 10 points in front of the Tories. I believe many reform voters will vote Tory at election time. So between now and then many things could happen that may alter the way people could vote. There is a question of the shy Tory vote. The do not knows and the people who live in rural constiuencies whose families have always voted Tory For in excess of the last forty years and might well continue to do so. A big part of the fun of this site is following daily events and developments in the election race. However we know that we are in for a new goverment. The polls in 2015 were wrong. My feeling is they are wrong again this time. Not long to go to the big night!

    Lunch break in Moscow?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,136
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
    I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
    I don't give a flying F about war commemorations but I have to agree with you on this. A spectacular gaffe and manna from heaven for Starmer and Farage.

    If I were a Tory MP I'd generally be a Sunak supporter but today even I would be be penning my letter.
    There are no letters now, no MPs. It requires some sort of special intervention
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,203

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    Jesus.

    Taking a pop at Zelensky?

    That's a low. The guy's a fucking hero from a real war zone.
    That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
  • Options
    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,105
    Dopermean said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Daily Express are on the attack: "Rishi Sunak apologises for awful D-Day blunder after he Skipped key remembrance events for TV interview."

    https://www.express.co.uk/

    What a blunder by the Prime Minister. 75% of people probably won't mind or even care. The 25% who really mind are the very people he had left as his voters.

    Except on the latest Redfield poll those are no longer the core vote of Sunak's Tory Party.

    The latest Redfield has the Tories polling highest with 45-54 year olds on 22% now post debate and Farage return, second highest with 35-44 year olds and with 65+ year olds the Tories are now third on 17% behind Reform on 19%.

    Indeed with 55 year olds and over Reform and Labour now beat the Tories, yet with under 55s the Sunak Tories still lead Reform

    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1798741638262731172/photo/1
    But it's the 55+ who are more likely to vote in the election

    It's weird to say this but it's perfectly possible that Reform will beat the Tories at this election..
    Are you suggesting this possibility by %vote or seats?
    %vote has a much higher chance than seats I'd have thought.
    Personally I'm tempted by 4-1 on Reform 0 seats and have laid Reform 7+ seats at ~4-1
    That seems pretty brave. Worth mentioning that in 2015, UKIP were on 13% and Con on 36% nationally and UKIP won Clacton and got close in a couple of others (S Thanet, Thurrock).

    If Reform are high teens and Con low twenties, then Reform should definitely be picking up seats. Reform's vote pattern should be somewhat similar to the LDs, where they have a huge swathe of seats with <10% (e.g Hackney, Glasgow, Cheltenham) and then maybe 50-100 where they can hope to get >30%. The difference with the LDs is whether Reform have the resources on the ground for canvassing, leafletting etc
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,316
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone think that Boris Johnson would have left early yesterday, and avoided the photo at the end with all the leaders including Zelensky?

    Anyone?

    Do you think he would have stayed for deeply respectful reasons, because he really wanted to honour the sacrifice or because he felt he needed to and wanted to hobnob with other leaders?

    It seems Rishi is being slammed for disrespect rather than the opportunity to mix it with men in suits in a beach.
    To be honest, a fair amount of both. Boris did understand his history, and would have understood the importance of the day, almost certainly the last time we’ll see WWII veterans at a public event. Boris would have shaken the hands of every last one of them, and stayed until the very end of the day.
    I think the important difference is that Johnson understood that events like this weren't a distraction from the job, they are the job. The PM is a front man.

    One of Sunak's problems is that he's a backroom details-oriented kind of person (me too!) and so he sees this sort of event as time when he can't be doing what he thinks he ought to be doing.
    That’s an astute observation. Sunak doesn’t really understand that a big part of the top job is to be the front man, and that turning up and shaking hands means a lot to others.
    He's a backroom boy and doesnt like the front of house stuff.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,409

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    You and the likes of Braverman are a good example of why the Right will be kept out of power for many years.

    You are clueless about Britain.

    Until the Conservatives ditch the right wing rabble rousing and win back the centre they will remain out of power. There is only enough oxygen on your Right for about 1/4 of the vote. Unless you win the other 1/4 which used to be the one nation tories you are lost.

    Farage appears to be your latest in a long line of luv-ins but he is poison to far too many people right of centre to be anything other than a populist demagogue.
    The trouble with you, Spode, is that just because you have succeeded in inducing a handful of half-wits to disfigure the London scene by going about in black shorts, you think you’re someone. You hear them shouting ‘Heil, Spode!’ and you imagine it is the Voice of the People. That is where you make your bloomer. What the Voice of the People is saying is: ‘Look at that frightful ass Spode swanking about in footer bags! Did you ever in your puff see such a perfect perisher?’
    marvelous writing btw.
    Isn't it just? Wodehouse is unmatched.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,970

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    You and the likes of Braverman are a good example of why the Right will be kept out of power for many years.

    You are clueless about Britain.

    Until the Conservatives ditch the right wing rabble rousing and win back the centre they will remain out of power. There is only enough oxygen on your Right for about 1/4 of the vote. Unless you win the other 1/4 which used to be the one nation tories you are lost.

    Farage appears to be your latest in a long line of luv-ins but he is poison to far too many people right of centre to be anything other than a populist demagogue.
    The trouble with you, Spode, is that just because you have succeeded in inducing a handful of half-wits to disfigure the London scene by going about in black shorts, you think you’re someone. You hear them shouting ‘Heil, Spode!’ and you imagine it is the Voice of the People. That is where you make your bloomer. What the Voice of the People is saying is: ‘Look at that frightful ass Spode swanking about in footer bags! Did you ever in your puff see such a perfect perisher?’
    Brilliant!

    P.G. Wodehouse was criticised for being 'lite' on the neo-fascists but it's all there if people bother to read him.

    Satire can be a killer.
    'Lite' on the original fascists surely?
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884

    The scramble from a few to speak of PM Farage is quite droll but misplaced.

    The country is about to vote in a Labour Government with a HUGE majority. That is the story after July 4th and will be for some time to come. Not the tories. Not Farage.

    The story will always focus on the government and the opposition (no matter how hapless/useless). We’re not a one party state.
  • Options
    DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 100

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    Jesus.

    Taking a pop at Zelensky?

    That's a low. The guy's a fucking hero from a real war zone.
    That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
    Double down, why don't you?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone think that Boris Johnson would have left early yesterday, and avoided the photo at the end with all the leaders including Zelensky?

    Anyone?

    Do you think he would have stayed for deeply respectful reasons, because he really wanted to honour the sacrifice or because he felt he needed to and wanted to hobnob with other leaders?

    It seems Rishi is being slammed for disrespect rather than the opportunity to mix it with men in suits in a beach.
    To be honest, a fair amount of both. Boris did understand his history, and would have understood the importance of the day, almost certainly the last time we’ll see WWII veterans at a public event. Boris would have shaken the hands of every last one of them, and stayed until the very end of the day.
    I think the important difference is that Johnson understood that events like this weren't a distraction from the job, they are the job. The PM is a front man.

    One of Sunak's problems is that he's a backroom details-oriented kind of person (me too!) and so he sees this sort of event as time when he can't be doing what he thinks he ought to be doing.
    That’s an astute observation. Sunak doesn’t really understand that a big part of the top job is to be the front man, and that turning up and shaking hands means a lot to others.
    He's a backroom boy and doesnt like the front of house stuff.
    Indeed, so why did he put himself up for the top job in the first place?
  • Options
    NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 713
    Do you remember this thread? https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/12169/the-spreads-are-open-politicalbetting-com

    The opening conservative spread was 150-158. It is currently 112-120

    It was suggested that at the time the spread was about right.

    How things change over a fortnight.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,203
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
    I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
    I don't give a flying F about war commemorations but I have to agree with you on this. A spectacular gaffe and manna from heaven for Starmer and Farage.

    If I were a Tory MP I'd generally be a Sunak supporter but today even I would be be penning my letter.
    You missed last post

    Much like Sunak
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,316

    Dopermean said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Daily Express are on the attack: "Rishi Sunak apologises for awful D-Day blunder after he Skipped key remembrance events for TV interview."

    https://www.express.co.uk/

    What a blunder by the Prime Minister. 75% of people probably won't mind or even care. The 25% who really mind are the very people he had left as his voters.

    Except on the latest Redfield poll those are no longer the core vote of Sunak's Tory Party.

    The latest Redfield has the Tories polling highest with 45-54 year olds on 22% now post debate and Farage return, second highest with 35-44 year olds and with 65+ year olds the Tories are now third on 17% behind Reform on 19%.

    Indeed with 55 year olds and over Reform and Labour now beat the Tories, yet with under 55s the Sunak Tories still lead Reform

    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1798741638262731172/photo/1
    But it's the 55+ who are more likely to vote in the election

    It's weird to say this but it's perfectly possible that Reform will beat the Tories at this election..
    Are you suggesting this possibility by %vote or seats?
    %vote has a much higher chance than seats I'd have thought.
    Personally I'm tempted by 4-1 on Reform 0 seats and have laid Reform 7+ seats at ~4-1
    That seems pretty brave. Worth mentioning that in 2015, UKIP were on 13% and Con on 36% nationally and UKIP won Clacton and got close in a couple of others (S Thanet, Thurrock).

    If Reform are high teens and Con low twenties, then Reform should definitely be picking up seats. Reform's vote pattern should be somewhat similar to the LDs, where they have a huge swathe of seats with <10% (e.g Hackney, Glasgow, Cheltenham) and then maybe 50-100 where they can hope to get >30%. The difference with the LDs is whether Reform have the resources on the ground for canvassing, leafletting etc
    They wont have, but if they get to crossover I suspect some large donors might appear.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,893
    Scott_xP said:

    No 10 are apparently denying the story that Richi originally was not going to attend at all.

    One leaked email could end this

    Of course he isn't the head of state, who was there all day.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
    I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
    Sunak pledges to retire at GE, Penny takes over the mantle of the campaign? At that point she could almost realistically say a vote for me is to give me a base to rebuild.

    It would be a bizarre, bizarre situation but it’s starting to feel like something has to give.
    Might be their best option. He is now toxic waste
    Back to reality, and Penny will tonight stick to the same answers Sunak has lead with, lose her seat because of that, and never be heard of again.

    It’s like an Agatha Christie, but knowing the who the murderer is before the murder has yet happened.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375
    Good morning one and all. Bright and sunny here this morning, I’m glad to report.

    Private Eye was commenting the other day that it was a bit surprising that the King seemed to just grant the PM’s request for a dissolution without much question or discussion, and suggested that the late Queen wouldn’t necessarily have done so.
    Now, we know that the DDay commemoration was scheduled; our PM wasn’t rung up at the last minute and told that Biden, Macron etc were going and he’d better, too. That’s not the way these things work.
    The point about the Scots holidays is a good one too; what’s more, plenty of parents schedule holidays for immediately after GCSE’s and/or A levels finish. Another clash.
    Then there’s the confusion over who’s standing where; a Party Leader surely has some idea of how ready the troops are.
    And so on.
    Either there’s something very, very good going to happen in the last week of June, or possibly something very nasty which is going to ‘unite the country’, or there’s something very nasty indeed going to happen in the early Autumn.
    Which is it?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?

    She'd have been at the wrong beach and then a strap-on would have fallen out of her handbag. #justtrussthings
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,893

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,676
    edited June 7

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

    An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

    Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
    The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.

    The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):

    YIMBY Gold award:

    Selby
    Huntingdonshire
    Mid Suffolk
    Telford and Wrekin
    West Lindsey

    NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom

    Pendle
    Thurrock
    Swale
    Epping Forest
    Peterborough

    Urban Excellence award: Southwark
    Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
    Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
    Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
    Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
    Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,226
    Credit and kudos to @Big_G_NorthWales for breaking the biggest story of the campaign on PB last night. Fastest finger first!
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,203

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    Jesus.

    Taking a pop at Zelensky?

    That's a low. The guy's a fucking hero from a real war zone.
    That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
    Double down, why don't you?
    Disrespectful performance.

    It's ridiculous you are defending it.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,360
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?

    And miss the shots for Insta?

    Hell no
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,870

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    Jesus.

    Taking a pop at Zelensky?

    That's a low. The guy's a fucking hero from a real war zone.
    That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
    Which is literally his uniform since day 1 of the war - turning up in anything else would be both wrong and inappropriate given that he is the leader of the country at war...
  • Options
    northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,573
    You gotta love twitter


  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,316
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone think that Boris Johnson would have left early yesterday, and avoided the photo at the end with all the leaders including Zelensky?

    Anyone?

    Do you think he would have stayed for deeply respectful reasons, because he really wanted to honour the sacrifice or because he felt he needed to and wanted to hobnob with other leaders?

    It seems Rishi is being slammed for disrespect rather than the opportunity to mix it with men in suits in a beach.
    To be honest, a fair amount of both. Boris did understand his history, and would have understood the importance of the day, almost certainly the last time we’ll see WWII veterans at a public event. Boris would have shaken the hands of every last one of them, and stayed until the very end of the day.
    I think the important difference is that Johnson understood that events like this weren't a distraction from the job, they are the job. The PM is a front man.

    One of Sunak's problems is that he's a backroom details-oriented kind of person (me too!) and so he sees this sort of event as time when he can't be doing what he thinks he ought to be doing.
    That’s an astute observation. Sunak doesn’t really understand that a big part of the top job is to be the front man, and that turning up and shaking hands means a lot to others.
    He's a backroom boy and doesnt like the front of house stuff.
    Indeed, so why did he put himself up for the top job in the first place?
    Blair, Cameron, BoJo - front of house performers

    Brown, May, Truss and Sunak - desk jockeys.
  • Options
    DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 100
    edited June 7
    Zelensky dresses like he's stepped out of a war zone ... because he has

    And it keeps the world focused on the ongoing battle for Ukraine's survival.

    FFS @bigjohnowls drop that attack line
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,333
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

    An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

    Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
    The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.

    The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):

    YIMBY Gold award:

    Selby
    Huntingdonshire
    Mid Suffolk
    Telford and Wrekin
    West Lindsey

    NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom

    Pendle
    Thurrock
    Swale
    Epping Forest
    Peterborough

    Urban Excellence award: Southwark
    Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
    Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
    Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
    Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
    Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
    This glut is all in your head.

    The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.

    Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦‍♂️
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,970
    geoffw said:

    Shall we have a sweep on who will be the last PB-Tory standing? CR or HY? Any other contenders?

    Me!
    You don't understand. I could'a had class, I could'a been a contender, I could'a been somebody

    You still voting Tory Geoff? Well done on perseverance in the face of ever-increasing reasons not to.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,226
    Eabhal said:

    There is a mole.

    I think Penny is the mole.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,844

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    You and the likes of Braverman are a good example of why the Right will be kept out of power for many years.

    You are clueless about Britain.

    Until the Conservatives ditch the right wing rabble rousing and win back the centre they will remain out of power. There is only enough oxygen on your Right for about 1/4 of the vote. Unless you win the other 1/4 which used to be the one nation tories you are lost.

    Farage appears to be your latest in a long line of luv-ins but he is poison to far too many people right of centre to be anything other than a populist demagogue.
    Yes but if Farage wins over Tories he could do it.

    Trump only got elected in 2016 and may only get elected in November as establishment Republicans and many Independents voted for him. Meloni in Italy got in with centre right Forza Italia support as well as that for her own hard right coalition.

    In Canada Reform never got anywhere near power until they merged with the Canadian Tories in 2003
    It's not clear to me Farage would be any good at defence.

    A greater bastard would be along shortly demanding he drop the *Net* from the zero immigration target. And so on and so on.
    Absolutey. The Cons tried to out extreme the extremists but the clue is in the name - extremists will always be beyond what everyone else is doing.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,844
    Poor Rishi. He shares the pain of the 8th Army.

    https://youtu.be/jKmzyIq1U10?si=aM2Ls83WcmNXa5uv
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,226
    Scott_xP said:

    Penny Mordaunt could sink Richi tonight.

    She might have to, to save her seat.

    She is named after a battleship, after all.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,398
    edited June 7
    eek said:

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1798988626556297506?s=46

    All of the Tories paid digital campaigns have been switched off.

    What could this mean? All the replies seem to think something major is afoot.

    Last-ditch deal with Reform?

    There is no chance whatsoever of Reform doing a deal now with the Conservatives.

    Why on earth would you offer a draw to someone you have on the ropes with several standing counts already?
    A pact and a merger? A top job for Farage?
    He wants to be leader of the Conservative party. Too late for this election, but I expect merger with him top dog by the year end.
    Does he - I suspect he would much prefer for the party he has total (well 53%) control over to be in charge.

    Trump merely controls the Republican Party because his voters are their voters.

    Farage will have both the voters and ownership of the party
    Yes he has been very explicit and consistent about it for a long time, but no-one was listening or thought it possible.

    From 2013 - Talk of Reverse takeover of Conservative by Reform party

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21894316

    From 2023 - Having set up Reform party says will be Conservative leader by 2026

    https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-leader-uk-conservative-party-2026/

    This week - https://news.sky.com/story/nigel-farage-sets-out-plan-for-reverse-takeover-of-conservative-party-13147634

    "I don't want to join the Conservative Party, I think the better thing to do would be to take it over."
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,676
    edited June 7

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

    An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

    Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
    The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.

    The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):

    YIMBY Gold award:

    Selby
    Huntingdonshire
    Mid Suffolk
    Telford and Wrekin
    West Lindsey

    NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom

    Pendle
    Thurrock
    Swale
    Epping Forest
    Peterborough

    Urban Excellence award: Southwark
    Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
    Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
    Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
    Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
    Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
    This glut is all in your head.

    The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.

    Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦‍♂️
    8.2% increase in homes
    6.1% increase in households
    6.3% increase in population
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?

    The way her economic policy was going her government wouldn’t have been able to afford to send her.
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?

    And miss the shots for Insta?

    Hell no
    Her reaction to the long list of names etched into the memorial would be;

    "tl;dr"
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,870

    Hang on, isn't Catterick in his constituency?????

    This seems pretty terminal for his chances of re-election.

    As I pointed out - not actually that many votes in Catterick, it's a training camp so most soldiers are only there on a temporary basis.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 19,333
    edited June 7
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

    An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

    Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
    The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.

    The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):

    YIMBY Gold award:

    Selby
    Huntingdonshire
    Mid Suffolk
    Telford and Wrekin
    West Lindsey

    NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom

    Pendle
    Thurrock
    Swale
    Epping Forest
    Peterborough

    Urban Excellence award: Southwark
    Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
    Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
    Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
    Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
    Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
    This glut is all in your head.

    The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.

    Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦‍♂️
    8.2% increase in homes
    6.1% increase in households
    6.3% increase in population
    Why are you lying?

    Your households figure is a lie. You know this, so why repeat it?

    People who are compelled to share a home as there's not enough houses are classed as one household. You know that, but you're repeating your lies anyway. 🤦‍♂️

    The idea that t here's been a lesser increase in household demand than population increase, when our demographic changes mean there's even further household pressures, is so obviously false its remarkable your following through on this outright blatant lie.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,203
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    Jesus.

    Taking a pop at Zelensky?

    That's a low. The guy's a fucking hero from a real war zone.
    That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
    Which is literally his uniform since day 1 of the war - turning up in anything else would be both wrong and inappropriate given that he is the leader of the country at war...
    80th year remembrance of the brave who fought in WW2 is a massive event and what do we get.

    Scruffy fooker attends 80th anniversary of D Day dressed as a scruff.

    I think it was totally disrespectful to those who gave there life.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,146
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?

    Could you imagine Boris Johnson there? Photos with world leaders and Zelensky vs defending a lie on live tv. They'd have needed half of the SAS to drag him away.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    Jesus.

    Taking a pop at Zelensky?

    That's a low. The guy's a fucking hero from a real war zone.
    That thinks it's appropriate to turn up to D Day in a sweatshirt and cargoes.
    Zelensky had been a very successful performer for his entire career and he knows what's up. Dressing like a divorced dad at B&Q is his brand, and the fucker knows to keep the show on the road he has to stay on brand.

    A large part of his electoral platform, back when Ukraine used to have elections, was that he was the anti-politician politician. The other plank of the platform was normalising relations with Russia but that didn't go so well so he's stuck with the anti-politician stuff. His rig of the day is a very visual way of emphasising that.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,081
    Sandpit said:

    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?

    She'd have stayed behing for a shoot with her own photographer.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,870
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    What's your definition of households as 1 to 1 relationship between households and new homes makes zero sense because the definition of a house of multiple occupation is multiple households (units) in the same house..

  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,203

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
    It's not about role play it's about respect for the WW2 fallen
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 202

    Good morning one and all. Bright and sunny here this morning, I’m glad to report.

    Private Eye was commenting the other day that it was a bit surprising that the King seemed to just grant the PM’s request for a dissolution without much question or discussion, and suggested that the late Queen wouldn’t necessarily have done so.
    Now, we know that the DDay commemoration was scheduled; our PM wasn’t rung up at the last minute and told that Biden, Macron etc were going and he’d better, too. That’s not the way these things work.
    The point about the Scots holidays is a good one too; what’s more, plenty of parents schedule holidays for immediately after GCSE’s and/or A levels finish. Another clash.
    Then there’s the confusion over who’s standing where; a Party Leader surely has some idea of how ready the troops are.
    And so on.
    Either there’s something very, very good going to happen in the last week of June, or possibly something very nasty which is going to ‘unite the country’, or there’s something very nasty indeed going to happen in the early Autumn.
    Which is it?

    Don't know much about why Lascelles enunciated those Principles but they seem to be about almost winning an election and wanting another go, not fag end governments like this.

    One sinister possibility is that they don't want a GE clashing with a royal funeral (which is perhaps your point)
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,676
    edited June 7

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

    An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

    Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
    The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.

    The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):

    YIMBY Gold award:

    Selby
    Huntingdonshire
    Mid Suffolk
    Telford and Wrekin
    West Lindsey

    NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom

    Pendle
    Thurrock
    Swale
    Epping Forest
    Peterborough

    Urban Excellence award: Southwark
    Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
    Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
    Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
    Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
    Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
    This glut is all in your head.

    The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.

    Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦‍♂️
    8.2% increase in homes
    6.1% increase in households
    6.3% increase in population
    Why are you lying?

    Your households figure is a lie. You know this, so why repeat it?

    People who are compelled to share a home as there's not enough houses are classed as one household. You know that, but you're repeating your lies anyway. 🤦‍♂️

    The idea that t here's been a lesser increase in household demand than population increase, when our demographic changes mean there's even further household pressures, is so obviously false its remarkable your following through on this outright blatant lie.
    The number of people per household has fallen, and overcrowding has fallen too.

    Edit: sorry, the population per household has risen* This is explained by immigrants being much more efficient users of households than say older people
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak asking young people to do National Service or to volunteer one weekend a month and then couldn’t be arsed to spend a full day honouring veterans . This will be another take on events .

    This latest own goal by him just feeds into other policy announcements .

    If you’re on the left liberal wing and echoing that superb post by Big G North Wales we need to be worried about what’s to come.

    So us liberal lefties are in the weird position of obviously wanting the Tories to lose but to not get pulverized and certainly we don’t want Farage winning in Clacton .

    I’m sure the other parties will have their gaffes during the campaign and will have those very bad news days but Sunak really needs to get a grip .

    No. We really really really want Farage to win and we want him to beat the Tories to death and we want him to be leader of the opposition and then become prime minister

    Look at the polls. He’s the most popular politician in the land. Sure he’s also hated. But the same was true of thatcher. Very popular with some disliked by many - she got things done and didn’t care
    What, in is history, makes you think Farage would be a competent, or even good, PM?
    He just has to be better than Sunak. Or truss. Or Boris. Or may. Or Cameron. Or brown

    It’s not a high bar and then suddenly he’s the best pm in a generation
    Farage would set the new low for disastrous PMs.

    Those who credit him with Brexit ignore one big fact: if he alone were the face of Brexit, many of us would not have voted for it. That Boris was the face of Brexit is what got it over the line. Left to Farage, we would now be inextricably linked with Brussels, for all time.

    Farage is a Poundshop Trump.

    No thank you.
    Plus the fact Farage wasn’t actually involved in Cummings amazeballs campaign, that got the seemingly impossible done by selling to us how much bloody greener and tasty the grass was on the other side. It probably only worked by excluding Farage.

    In Grahams brilliant screenplay, didn’t Cummings say “oh for fuck sake, no” when Farage showed up at the office?
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,189
    edited June 7
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

    An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

    Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
    The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.

    The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):

    YIMBY Gold award:

    Selby
    Huntingdonshire
    Mid Suffolk
    Telford and Wrekin
    West Lindsey

    NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom

    Pendle
    Thurrock
    Swale
    Epping Forest
    Peterborough

    Urban Excellence award: Southwark
    Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
    Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
    Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
    Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
    Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
    This glut is all in your head.

    The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.

    Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦‍♂️
    8.2% increase in homes
    6.1% increase in households
    6.3% increase in population
    To what time period do your figures relate?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,562
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

    An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

    Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
    The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.

    The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):

    YIMBY Gold award:

    Selby
    Huntingdonshire
    Mid Suffolk
    Telford and Wrekin
    West Lindsey

    NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom

    Pendle
    Thurrock
    Swale
    Epping Forest
    Peterborough

    Urban Excellence award: Southwark
    Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
    Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
    Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
    Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
    Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
    This glut is all in your head.

    The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.

    Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦‍♂️
    8.2% increase in homes
    6.1% increase in households
    6.3% increase in population
    To start with, the households number is bullshit.

    This is because people forced into a flat/house share are counted as a household.

    An example - at work, one of the juniors lived in a three bed flat. Three people sharing, one household. The landlord came in and divided the large living room into two more rooms. So five people now share a single flat.

    Is that the housing crisis getting better or worse?

    As to claims of a glut - occupancy of property in the UK is something north of 98%. Which is a sign of a very stressed market.

    France, with a similar population, has 8 million more properties than us.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,993
    Chameleon said:

    https://x.com/WhoTargetsMe/status/1798988626556297506

    Conservatives have turned off their digital ad campaigns...

    They could have transferred to a third party - but that is unlikely as they'd surely want to use the Sunak and Conservatives facebook page. Any other theories for why this has happened?

    They have decided to cancel the election before close of nominations this afternoon. Rishi has a Plan. This is the plan.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,146
    edited June 7
    So tonight Penny Mordaunt, candidate for one of the most military heavy seats in the country, has to defend Sunak not really being arsed for D-Day. Odds on her going majorly off script to try and save herself?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,300
    Who's Rishi's chief advisor?
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,398
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
    More specifically, he's said in various interviews, that he feels that

    (a) wearing a suit feels detached from the realties of Ukraine
    (b) that it reminds people, when he goes to events, of the war.
    He’s not worn a suit since 24th February 2022. It reminds everyone, that his is a country at war.
    Suits especially with ties are just uncomfortable. So may as well get some little benefit from being invaded by making a virtue of ditching them.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,870
    edited June 7

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
    It's not about role play it's about respect for the WW2 fallen
    No vetran would object to the clothes that Zelenskys wears - because that's the uniform he's worn for the past 2 years while he leads a country at war.

    WW2 was a previous war, Ukraine is currently fighting the next war at this moment...
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,291
    Andy_JS said:

    Who's Rishi's chief advisor?

    Australian fellow.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,676

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

    An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

    Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
    The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.

    The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):

    YIMBY Gold award:

    Selby
    Huntingdonshire
    Mid Suffolk
    Telford and Wrekin
    West Lindsey

    NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom

    Pendle
    Thurrock
    Swale
    Epping Forest
    Peterborough

    Urban Excellence award: Southwark
    Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
    Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
    Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
    Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
    Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
    This glut is all in your head.

    The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.

    Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦‍♂️
    8.2% increase in homes
    6.1% increase in households
    6.3% increase in population
    To what time period do your figures relate?
    2011 - 2021.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,301

    geoffw said:

    Shall we have a sweep on who will be the last PB-Tory standing? CR or HY? Any other contenders?

    Me!
    You don't understand. I could'a had class, I could'a been a contender, I could'a been somebody

    You still voting Tory Geoff? Well done on perseverance in the face of ever-increasing reasons not to.
    As a matter of fact, no. It'll be SLab for me as it was last time. But my principles are conservative.

  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,226
    edited June 7

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    I did notice that. Seemed an odd choice of outfit for a memorial I must say. But given the problems his country is having, seemed a mean point to make.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,398
    Andy_JS said:

    Who's Rishi's chief advisor?

    Whats Corbyn doing these days?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,970

    Good morning one and all. Bright and sunny here this morning, I’m glad to report.

    Private Eye was commenting the other day that it was a bit surprising that the King seemed to just grant the PM’s request for a dissolution without much question or discussion, and suggested that the late Queen wouldn’t necessarily have done so.
    Now, we know that the DDay commemoration was scheduled; our PM wasn’t rung up at the last minute and told that Biden, Macron etc were going and he’d better, too. That’s not the way these things work.
    The point about the Scots holidays is a good one too; what’s more, plenty of parents schedule holidays for immediately after GCSE’s and/or A levels finish. Another clash.
    Then there’s the confusion over who’s standing where; a Party Leader surely has some idea of how ready the troops are.
    And so on.
    Either there’s something very, very good going to happen in the last week of June, or possibly something very nasty which is going to ‘unite the country’, or there’s something very nasty indeed going to happen in the early Autumn.
    Which is it?

    Something very, very good is going to happen on 4th July, is my guess.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,360

    Sandpit said:

    Okay, and putting the cat among the pigeons, does anyone think that Liz Truss would have left early yesterday?

    She'd have stayed behing for a shoot with her own photographer.
    Which is exactly what Farage did
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,388
    edited June 7

    HYUFD said:

    I used to love Fighting Talk on 5 Live. The Defend the Indefensible round. Glad to see that HY and CR are channeling that this morning.

    We need the Tories to go full Gonzo to change the story. Bring back Hanging. Send the so-called disabled to the Work House (owned by Tory spivs of course). Do away with computers. Something.

    No none of that wins back the hardcore Reform voter as Farage can always out populist you, raise the IHT threshold to £5 million and focus on LD voters who voted for Cameron in the bluewall and Labour voters who voted for Cameron in London now and some of the poshest Reform voters who were Tories before. Give Cameron a big role in the campaign (he was at all the D Day commemorations)
    I know we're in a general election campaign, but its OK to say that your side have done wrong. Because literally everyone else can see it is wrong and knows instinctively it is wrong.
    My good lady has just said about the Sunak story

    'What a shambles' and she is not into politics

    She is as dismayed as I am and she went to Orkney with her family during the wartime period as the boats helped supply the fleet in Scapa
    I'm off to see Pa Woolie later, I'm expecting him to be seriously pissed off about it. It just gets worse and worse the more detail emerges. The Tories need to dump him somehow. Now.
    And this is the thing ultimately - This story will have cut through like nothing else.

    The memes about Keir Starmer having a magic lamp have never looked more right - this is like a story beyond Starmer (and Farage’s!) wildest dreams.
    I'm coming to the opinion that dumping him might be their best option to save as many as they can
    Sunak pledges to retire at GE, Penny takes over the mantle of the campaign? At that point she could almost realistically say a vote for me is to give me a base to rebuild.

    It would be a bizarre, bizarre situation but it’s starting to feel like something has to give.
    Might be their best option. He is now toxic waste
    But in fact that would mean the Tories were seeking re-election without anyone knowing who would become prime minister. It may be that would be better than knowing Sunak would become* prime minister, but it's really not feasible.

    [* I suppose I should have said "remain prime minister"?]
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,407
    edited June 7
    BETTING POST
    ----------------
    In 2015 Farage came close to winning South Thanet, falling 5.7pp short. The seat has been modified somewhat with the boundary changes, to become Thanet East.

    The popular Tory incumbent, Craig Mackinlay, is not standing for re-election due to the timing of the election and his recovery following sepsis.

    Oddschecker has Reform at 20/1, though according to Wikipedia, neither the Tories or Reform have a declared candidate.

    Do you own research, but looks like a good bet to me.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    So imagine Reform entering the Commons with 3 MPs (Farage, Tice and Anderson). Tories come back with less than 100 and the two parties merge. What's the mechanism for Farage to become the leader of the merged party? What's then stopping the centre-right wing of the party to walk out in an echo of 1981?
  • Options
    MuesliMuesli Posts: 128
    Muesli said:

    The D-Day fiasco has got to knock the Tory polling back a few % and below Reform, surely?

    This campaign is beginning to make May's look not too bad.

    Indeed. It does seem to be self-sabotaging itself. I am not sure it is Sunak - albeit he is the boss so should crack the whip. From day one it has been a bit of a shower.

    The launch was laughable. No one looked at the weather forecast. And it seems did not know that they were not allowed to do it inside Number 10. You would have thought they could have lined up a local school or something.

    Going home yesterday was symptomatic of the screw ups. Fancy leaving Starmer the opportunity to look prime ministerial during an election campaign. Are they idiots! The interview doesn’t screen until next week. If it was something for now there may be more sympathy, but all I sense is derision.
    The being sent to the titanic you can definitely place the fault on your team, in those situations you are just been driven from place to place.

    When you are at a massive WW2 commemorations, major world leaders and royalty are there, whatever your team tell you is up next you tell them to get stuffed, particularly if it is just an ITV interview (they will reschedule).
    ITV are briefing that the interview was filmed yesterday at the Tories’ behest, not the other way around.
    More on that ITV briefing re #ddayinterviewgate:

    Rishi Sunak says: “This anniversary should be about those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country. The last thing I want is for the commemorations to be overshadowed by politics.”

    Paul Brand, ITV News reporter, says: “Today was the slot that we were offered, we don't know why. Obviously it's not our choice, but he certainly returned from Normandy ready to dive back into the campaign.”

    Julie Etchingham, ITV News presenter and election debate moderator, says: “Gentlemen, PLEASE!”
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,562
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Will Sunak's apology bring Big_G back to the cause? I guess it will.

    Sunak should not have apologised. He was at Southsea, he was at the D Day commemorations on the British beaches in Normandy.

    All he has done now is give fuel to the opposition parties exploitation of the D Day memorials for their own political ends in one of the most disgraceful acts of political campaigning I have ever seen. Starmer, Davey and Farage should be ashamed of themselves
    Nice try, Comrade,

    The shit is only flying in one direction.
    Why has nobody mentioned Zelenskys amazingly respectful dress code?
    Because he is playing a role, just like Churchill did during WW2.
    It's not about role play it's about respect for the WW2 fallen
    No vetran would object to the clothes that Zelenskys wears - because that's the uniform he's worn for the past 2 years while he leads a country at war.
    Churchill spent a considerable chunk of the war wearing a boiler suit.

    Made by Turnbull & Asser, to be sure. They still have one in their collection at Jermyn Street.
  • Options
    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 292
    So on Monday pre Farage I put a lot of Trading bets on Reform and the LDs with the intention of cashing out this weekend, after Farage’s debate appearance tonight.

    At this rate, it is surely better to hold them until next week, where we might get some more strong Reform showings in the polls after the D-Day issue has had cut through… thoughts?
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,189
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

    An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

    Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
    The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.

    The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):

    YIMBY Gold award:

    Selby
    Huntingdonshire
    Mid Suffolk
    Telford and Wrekin
    West Lindsey

    NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom

    Pendle
    Thurrock
    Swale
    Epping Forest
    Peterborough

    Urban Excellence award: Southwark
    Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
    Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
    Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
    Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
    Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
    This glut is all in your head.

    The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.

    Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦‍♂️
    8.2% increase in homes
    6.1% increase in households
    6.3% increase in population
    To what time period do your figures relate?
    2011 - 2021.
    So we need to build a lot more than 8.2% in order to reverse the increase in house prices and rents even to 2011 notwithstanding the accuracy of your figures.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,146

    Andy_JS said:

    Who's Rishi's chief advisor?

    Australian fellow.
    Bob Muldoon?
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,676

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

    An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

    Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
    The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.

    The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):

    YIMBY Gold award:

    Selby
    Huntingdonshire
    Mid Suffolk
    Telford and Wrekin
    West Lindsey

    NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom

    Pendle
    Thurrock
    Swale
    Epping Forest
    Peterborough

    Urban Excellence award: Southwark
    Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
    Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
    Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
    Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
    Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
    This glut is all in your head.

    The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.

    Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦‍♂️
    8.2% increase in homes
    6.1% increase in households
    6.3% increase in population
    To start with, the households number is bullshit.

    This is because people forced into a flat/house share are counted as a household.

    An example - at work, one of the juniors lived in a three bed flat. Three people sharing, one household. The landlord came in and divided the large living room into two more rooms. So five people now share a single flat.

    Is that the housing crisis getting better or worse?

    As to claims of a glut - occupancy of property in the UK is something north of 98%. Which is a sign of a very stressed market.

    France, with a similar population, has 8 million more properties than us.
    I don't doubt that has happened in some dwellings. But the fact is that overall total number of dwellings has increased, the total number of spare bedrooms has increased, and overcrowding has fallen.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,676
    edited June 7

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cicero said:

    Help to Buy is to getting a rebrand as Freedom to Buy...

    https://news.sky.com/story/labour-to-offer-freedom-to-buy-for-young-people-with-mortgage-guarantee-scheme-13148889

    Permanent very low deposits guaranteed by government has other negatives above the risk of bad loans.

    What percentage of council houses sold are still in the hands of owner occupiers, as opposed to private rental companies?
    40% of right to buy homes are now rented out privately.

    PB likes to ignore the vast shifts in housing tenure in the last 14 years, but ultimately it's the reason why the country has become more unequal and why the number of natural Conservative voters has fallen. There is no evidence that a mass private housebuilding programme would reverse the trend and increase ownership - all the new homes will simply be hoovered up by those who have accumulated large savings.
    That shows a gross ignorance of economics and follows your typical lame excuse-making for NIMBYism.

    The reason for the vast shifts in housing tenure is the lack of building supply. If supply increases that will be reversed.

    And of course in a healthy free housing economy typically 10% of homes are unoccupied [for very good reasons] which means homes in poor condition or are too expensive don't get let out and the owner is left paying their bills/mortgage and taxes without a tenant paying them any rent.

    So why would those with savings snap up all homes if supply is increased and they can't let them out? It means price falls and people who want to buy to own have a choice, as well as tenants having a choice, on where to live.
    There he blows!

    New homes: 2.0 million
    Increase in households renting: 1.1 million
    Increase in households owning outright: 0.9 million
    Decrease in households with a mortgage: -0.4 million

    It would have certainly been worse without any new homes. But the idea that an increase in supply is the only intervention required is nonsense - wealth inequality is now far too great in the UK for that to suffice.
    That's been caused by the terrible shortage of new homes, meaning prices are far too high. Which is fundamental supply and demand in action.

    An increase in supply may not be the only intervention required, I never said it is, but it is absolutely 100% needed and would help to reverse the damage that has been done.

    Of course if supply increases and prices fall in real terms, then that would lower that inequality you mentioned too.
    The number of new homes has increased faster than the population, by a wide margin. It's actually a glut.

    The problem is that there are significant mismatches with where those houses are being built and where there is housing pressure. At risk of pissing off lots of PBers, here is my official assessment of LAs (bespoke assessments can be provided on request):

    YIMBY Gold award:

    Selby
    Huntingdonshire
    Mid Suffolk
    Telford and Wrekin
    West Lindsey

    NIMBY Black Spot of Barty Doom

    Pendle
    Thurrock
    Swale
    Epping Forest
    Peterborough

    Urban Excellence award: Southwark
    Rural Excellence award: West Devon, Cotswolds, Uttlesford
    Leon award: Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea (fewer houses, population falling)
    Trooper award: Tower Hamlets, Bedford, Tewkesbury (massive effort, but simply can’t keep up)
    Breeze block award: Barking and Dagenham, Slough, Leicester (massive population growth, no attempt to deal with it)
    Barty award: Copeland, Richmondshire, Caerphilly, Allerdale (population falling but f*** it more houses anyway)
    This glut is all in your head.

    The number of new homes has nowhere near kept up with demand.

    Again you show a shocking ignorance of the effects of demographics on housing requirements, talking again only of "population". 🤦‍♂️
    8.2% increase in homes
    6.1% increase in households
    6.3% increase in population
    To what time period do your figures relate?
    2011 - 2021.
    So we need to build a lot more than 8.2% in order to reverse the increase in house prices and rents even to 2011 notwithstanding the accuracy of your figures.
    I think that is probably true. But I'll check the 2001 - 2011 stats first...

    The general point I'm trying to make is that there is huge variance across the country in terms of housing pressure, and the only way to assuage that is to spread economic demand around more evenly. Building lots of houses in Cumbria does nowt for house prices in London.

    And while increased supply will help with the large increase in people in renting, it cannot be the only intervention. The number of cash buyers floating around prohibits young people getting on the ladder.

This discussion has been closed.