RE polls pointing to Ref advances: Seems to be less a case of Con2019ers going Labour now going Reform, but rather former apathetics and undecided coming back out to vote, but vote for Ref.
How is Sunak so crap? Is it the wealth that insulates him from reality?
It could be that he’s deliberately trying to get the Tories massacred.
Or it could be that he does not feel personally involved with D Day. How many members of his family were killed at Dunkirk? Or landed in Normandy Or were killed in the Blitz?
Peter Mandelson suggested the party should seriously consider binning Richi before the election
The events of today demonstrate why
Who was it who predicted that Isaac Levido would be jettisoned to try to shore up Rishi's position? I think they might have been on to something.
It won't improve matters if it happens, of course - Levido is only a symptom of the problem, not the cause.
The party need to accept that this is it, there's no escaping what's coming. The leadership should shut up and stop trying to stir things up, whilst the constituencies look to their own defences. Following any other path is going to make things worse, not better.
The issue is. Just like the mid 90's, they genuinely believe they are the voice of Middle England. They aren't. They can't change tack whilst that dissonance persists. Only a couple of cataclysmic defeats can relieve them of the burden of that illusion.
It seems to me the first major move in the polls during the campaign is to be an uptick in Reform support, at the expense of other major parties. Too early to say the mix, but not a material drop in the Labour lead given the Tory vote percentage is now perilously low in absolute terms.
The most notable point is this is precisely the opposite change that was predicted by many: that a Tory squeeze of Reform voters would close the gap meaningfully.
Will the momentum last? Well, the good news is I think any Farage party has a ceiling of support at around 20% or so in a general election. He's a divisive figure even amongst those on the right, and his party has no real depth in the way even the Lib Dems do at a local or national level.
But even support at those levels risks an extinction level event for the Tories: with the Lib Dems and Labour making unlikely wins in their respective areas of strength on the back of an inefficient Reform vote.
Sunak needs Farage to be sidelined in the campaign. If only he hadn't majored his campaign on Rwanda and National Service, two ludicrous schemes where Farage can always outdo him.
Starmer can keep his head down and win by default. But the lower vote %, if not lower vote count, may raise questions as to how strong a mandate he has vs. how strong a rejection of the Tories we've witnessed.
Davey should just keep doing what he's doing. He's the most likable of the four, but the least well known.
Mark Harper repeats Rishi Sunak's lie about the £2,000 Labour tax
Fiona Bruce calls him out on it
Mark Harper doubles down
Fiona Bruce reads out the letter
Mark Harper triples down on it
Shabana Mahmood jumps in and calls him out
Look at Mark Harpers face - he knows he's telling lies and yet he carries on, Shameful
That's the point that MoonRabbit's been making: Rishi told those lies and refused to back down - so now senior Tories are stuck having to repeat them too if they don't want the story to suddenly become one of "Tory splits".
And it's going to get worse and worse for them every time the lies are repeated.
They really should have climbed down yesterday while it was still just about possible to do so, and relied on the £2000 figure sticking in people's minds.
I agree with your post. 🥰 Except the bit about Tories ever had the chance to avoid this mess, once Rishi had firmly lead with it.
And it’s not just the 2K Lie - every Conservative has to hold the line on boat crossings are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, over and over till election day, as these answers are now the actual spine of the Conservative campaign. 🫣
And with the 2K Lie, the fact the Civil Service immediately called Rishi a liar is the take out from it this week, but far more damaging in long run is those 12yr old SPADs whose never had to work for a living in their lives who created this, only got it to up to 2K figure by only working families paying for it, totally ignoring the rest of the tax system and how it works to fund Tory pledges. The spectator piece leapt on this part of the madness straightaway, because the daftness of saying that was visible from space. It’s dragged in “how much do all these Tory pledge's cost in the fantasy world just a subset of tax payers pay them”.
Sure there is lies and spin at elections, and the best of campaigns work and are legendary, but it has to be more sophisticated and subtle than something that instantly falls apart, into this “properly taking voters as mugs with your never ending lies” narrative in just 24hrs!
If Cummings clever £350M “gross on a bus” is Grad A version how to do it, this was more like D minus.
Interesting that on debate night SKS was called out for letting that ride unchallenged for several minutes. Yet the challenge, when it did come, after multiple repetitions of the fabrication, was very forceful and more prominent for allowing the repetition to occur and now it is causing the Tories issues.
I can't say for sure whether Starmer got lucky or was doing some Jason Beer let the lie sit there a while thing, but it has worked out.
Who do we reckon won the debate now?
It's hard to tell, because the polls are affected by Farage's entry into the fray, but I still suspect that when you see, "shameful Tory lies about a Labour plan to increase taxes by £2000," all most voters will hear and remember is, "mimble wimble blah Labour plan to increase taxes flibble dibble doo."
I think that will reduce the number of Labour gains, but I'm not sure whether it will be a marginal difference or a larger one.
How is Sunak so crap? Is it the wealth that insulates him from reality?
It could be that he’s deliberately trying to get the Tories massacred.
Or it could be that he does not feel personally involved with D Day. How many members of his family were killed at Dunkirk? Or landed in Normandy Or were killed in the Blitz?
The same as mine? Being zero?
None of mine either. Indeed none of my family fought in the war, being either too old or too young, though my Grandfather was in a Wigan Home Guard unit. Tough men, all miners exempted from regular service.
Mark Harper repeats Rishi Sunak's lie about the £2,000 Labour tax
Fiona Bruce calls him out on it
Mark Harper doubles down
Fiona Bruce reads out the letter
Mark Harper triples down on it
Shabana Mahmood jumps in and calls him out
Look at Mark Harpers face - he knows he's telling lies and yet he carries on, Shameful
That's the point that MoonRabbit's been making: Rishi told those lies and refused to back down - so now senior Tories are stuck having to repeat them too if they don't want the story to suddenly become one of "Tory splits".
And it's going to get worse and worse for them every time the lies are repeated.
They really should have climbed down yesterday while it was still just about possible to do so, and relied on the £2000 figure sticking in people's minds.
I agree with your post. 🥰 Except the bit about Tories ever had the chance to avoid this mess, once Rishi had firmly lead with it.
And it’s not just the 2K Lie - every Conservative has to hold the line on boat crossings are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, over and over till election day, as these answers are now the actual spine of the Conservative campaign. 🫣
And with the 2K Lie, the fact the Civil Service immediately called Rishi a liar is the take out from it this week, but far more damaging in long run is those 12yr old SPADs whose never had to work for a living in their lives who created this, only got it to up to 2K figure by only working families paying for it, totally ignoring the rest of the tax system and how it works to fund Tory pledges. The spectator piece leapt on this part of the madness straightaway, because the daftness of saying that was visible from space. It’s dragged in “how much do all these Tory pledge's cost in the fantasy world just a subset of tax payers pay them”.
Sure there is lies and spin at elections, and the best of campaigns work and are legendary, but it has to be more sophisticated and subtle than something that instantly falls apart, into this “properly taking voters as mugs with your never ending lies” narrative in just 24hrs!
If Cummings clever £350M “gross on a bus” is Grad A version how to do it, this was more like D minus.
Interesting that on debate night SKS was called out for letting that ride unchallenged for several minutes. Yet the challenge, when it did come, after multiple repetitions of the fabrication, was very forceful and more prominent for allowing the repetition to occur and now it is causing the Tories issues.
I can't say for sure whether Starmer got lucky or was doing some Jason Beer let the lie sit there a while thing, but it has worked out.
Who do we reckon won the debate now?
Still about even.
But the post-debate is always going to be a separate thing, and it doesn't yet feel like Sunak has been able to build off it at all, whereas Starmer is blunting what might have cut through.
It seems to me the first major move in the polls during the campaign is to be an uptick in Reform support, at the expense of other major parties. Too early to say the mix, but not a material drop in the Labour lead given the Tory vote percentage is now perilously low in absolute terms.
The most notable point is this is precisely the opposite change that was predicted by many: that a Tory squeeze of Reform voters would close the gap meaningfully.
Will the momentum last? Well, the good news is I think any Farage party has a ceiling of support at around 20% or so in a general election. He's a divisive figure even amongst those on the right, and his party has no real depth in the way even the Lib Dems do at a local or national level.
But even support at those levels risks an extinction level event for the Tories: with the Lib Dems and Labour making unlikely wins in their respective areas of strength on the back of an inefficient Reform vote.
Sunak needs Farage to be sidelined in the campaign. If only he hadn't majored his campaign on Rwanda and National Service, two ludicrous schemes where Farage can always outdo him.
Starmer can keep his head down and win by default. But the lower vote %, if not lower vote count, may raise questions as to how strong a mandate he has vs. how strong a rejection of the Tories we've witnessed.
Davey should just keep doing what he's doing. He's the most likable of the four, but the least well known.
Great post. Excellent summary of the state of play imho.
And on that fine way to end I’ll wish you all a good night.
Bozza was, and is, a bad man. One example of his malignancy is that he catapulted Truss and Sunak to the front of the line of succession.
Cruel to the country, cruel to the party, but also cruel to Liz and Rishi. Because neither of them was up to the job.
Post 2019 GE which Conservative MP was? He'd driven out experienced rivals but the MPs never mind the members, weren't going to select Phillip Hammond or any other reasonable, experienced figure.
I think Gove might have worked. Radical but also prepared to do the work.
The thing about Sunak's £2k Labour tax allegation is this, and I don't think it's been mentioned enough. The 'lie' is that Sunak intended, during the debate, for everybody to think Labour's alleged tax hike would be £2k per year, rather than £500 a year - i.e. over four years. And the Tories, including Hunt, continue to frame it as £2k rather than £500. £10 a week isn't a great deal; £40 a week is.
Regardless of the fact that the figure is pure conjecture anyway (I expect Labour to raise taxes, obviously), it's this sleight of hand that makes it a 'lie'.
How is Sunak so crap? Is it the wealth that insulates him from reality?
It could be that he’s deliberately trying to get the Tories massacred.
Or it could be that he does not feel personally involved with D Day. How many members of his family were killed at Dunkirk? Or landed in Normandy Or were killed in the Blitz?
The same as mine? Being zero?
Mine too. I'm not aware of a relative who was even in the Forces at all, let alone in WW2, until my only brother earlier this century.
I think a lot of praise has to go to Nigel Farage for comporting himself with dignity during the D-Day celebrations. It can't be easy when all of Europe comes together to commemorate your side getting beaten.
Bozza was, and is, a bad man. One example of his malignancy is that he catapulted Truss and Sunak to the front of the line of succession.
Cruel to the country, cruel to the party, but also cruel to Liz and Rishi. Because neither of them was up to the job.
Post 2019 GE which Conservative MP was? He'd driven out experienced rivals but the MPs never mind the members, weren't going to select Phillip Hammond or any other reasonable, experienced figure.
Gosh. A real sign that Tory life comes at you fast. I'd completely erased Hammond from my memory.
To be fair, old Spreadsheet Phil was never that memorable in the first place.
But the only one who might have made a decent fist of it was Gove. He might have done OK in the "minding the shop and keeping the nutters out" role post-defeat as well.
He might not have been goodz but he'd have been better than all this.
How is Sunak so crap? Is it the wealth that insulates him from reality?
It could be that he’s deliberately trying to get the Tories massacred.
Or it could be that he does not feel personally involved with D Day. How many members of his family were killed at Dunkirk? Or landed in Normandy Or were killed in the Blitz?
The same as mine? Being zero?
None of mine either. Indeed none of my family fought in the war, being either too old or too young, though my Grandfather was in a Wigan Home Guard unit. Tough men, all miners exempted from regular service.
Much the same here - though my father was a trainee matelot in Plymouth and recalls being oujt in the trenches all night during the Cromwell invasion scare.
And although I don't think any Indian Army (in the old sense) units served in NWE, they did serve in the Med/Africa/Italy and possibly South France. And CBI of course.
It seems to me the first major move in the polls during the campaign is to be an uptick in Reform support, at the expense of other major parties. Too early to say the mix, but not a material drop in the Labour lead given the Tory vote percentage is now perilously low in absolute terms.
The most notable point is this is precisely the opposite change that was predicted by many: that a Tory squeeze of Reform voters would close the gap meaningfully.
Will the momentum last? Well, the good news is I think any Farage party has a ceiling of support at around 20% or so in a general election. He's a divisive figure even amongst those on the right, and his party has no real depth in the way even the Lib Dems do at a local or national level.
But even support at those levels risks an extinction level event for the Tories: with the Lib Dems and Labour making unlikely wins in their respective areas of strength on the back of an inefficient Reform vote.
Sunak needs Farage to be sidelined in the campaign. If only he hadn't majored his campaign on Rwanda and National Service, two ludicrous schemes where Farage can always outdo him.
Starmer can keep his head down and win by default. But the lower vote %, if not lower vote count, may raise questions as to how strong a mandate he has vs. how strong a rejection of the Tories we've witnessed.
Davey should just keep doing what he's doing. He's the most likable of the four, but the least well known.
LDs need to plug along and hope to seize on the brief moments of attention they will get, or an implosion of support from a side which might come in their direction.
The latter seems unlikely, so boring as it is a workmanlike campaign, focused on key areas and hoping to sweep a few dozen seats in the wake of a Labour landslide is a solid aim.
🚨 NEW: The Green Party is now reviewing a dossier containing almost 20 candidates who shared "antisemitic slurs and conspiracy theories" ahead of tomorrow's candidate deadline
The Greens should probably be concerned about the ones not in the dossier as if there are any and they blow up post closure of nominations that would be unfortunate.
First Tory debate - public reaction Tugendhat 36% vs Truss 6% - Tories pick Truss and of course she had no public backing for the extreme changes she wanted to rapidly introduce....
How is Sunak so crap? Is it the wealth that insulates him from reality?
It could be that he’s deliberately trying to get the Tories massacred.
Or it could be that he does not feel personally involved with D Day. How many members of his family were killed at Dunkirk? Or landed in Normandy Or were killed in the Blitz?
The same as mine? Being zero?
My maternal family lost a fair number during the war. Big old Wiltshire family, all the boys went off to fight and most didn’t come back. I have read widely over my life about both World Wars. I always try to imagine what it would have been like, whether I would have been able to do what so many did. The tragedy is that 80 years later we still live in a world where an evil dictator can command his armies to invade another country. On Sunak, I find it intersecting how harsh the reaction is on here. I flicked to the BBC home page and saw nothing about him leaving early. He was there, he attended. So he didn’t also attend a ceremony at Omaha beach, which was in the American sector (albeit many Brits and Commonwealth fought there in the Navy). The internet creates echo chambers and right now PB is just that.
How is Sunak so crap? Is it the wealth that insulates him from reality?
It could be that he’s deliberately trying to get the Tories massacred.
Or it could be that he does not feel personally involved with D Day. How many members of his family were killed at Dunkirk? Or landed in Normandy Or were killed in the Blitz?
I think Casino is right on this. It probably won't prove to be a big issue beyond tomorrow lunchtime when the agenda moves on.
🚨 NEW: The Green Party is now reviewing a dossier containing almost 20 candidates who shared "antisemitic slurs and conspiracy theories" ahead of tomorrow's candidate deadline
The Greens should probably be concerned about the ones not in the dossier as if there are any and they blow up post closure of nominations that would be unfortunate.
If the greens turf them out they will probably get a gig on test match special.
Peter Mandelson suggested the party should seriously consider binning Richi before the election
The events of today demonstrate why
Who was it who predicted that Isaac Levido would be jettisoned to try to shore up Rishi's position? I think they might have been on to something.
It won't improve matters if it happens, of course - Levido is only a symptom of the problem, not the cause.
The party need to accept that this is it, there's no escaping what's coming. The leadership should shut up and stop trying to stir things up, whilst the constituencies look to their own defences. Following any other path is going to make things worse, not better.
The issue is. Just like the mid 90's, they genuinely believe they are the voice of Middle England. They aren't. They can't change tack whilst that dissonance persists. Only a couple of cataclysmic defeats can relieve them of the burden of that illusion.
The thing about Sunak's £2k Labour tax allegation is this, and I don't think it's been mentioned enough. The 'lie' is that Sunak intended, during the debate, for everybody to think Labour's alleged tax hike would be £2k per year, rather than £500 a year - i.e. over four years. And the Tories, including Hunt, continue to frame it as £2k rather than £500. £10 a week isn't a great deal; £40 a week is.
Regardless of the fact that the figure is pure conjecture anyway (I expect Labour to raise taxes, obviously), it's this sleight of hand that makes it a 'lie'.
This kind of thing has a long history. IIRC Gordon Brown was very fond of adding several years increases into one figure in the same way.
How is Sunak so crap? Is it the wealth that insulates him from reality?
It could be that he’s deliberately trying to get the Tories massacred.
Or it could be that he does not feel personally involved with D Day. How many members of his family were killed at Dunkirk? Or landed in Normandy Or were killed in the Blitz?
I think Casino is right on this. It probably won't prove to be a big issue beyond tomorrow lunchtime when the agenda moves on.
🚨 NEW: The Green Party is now reviewing a dossier containing almost 20 candidates who shared "antisemitic slurs and conspiracy theories" ahead of tomorrow's candidate deadline
The Greens should probably be concerned about the ones not in the dossier as if there are any and they blow up post closure of nominations that would be unfortunate.
Once candidates are confirmed I suspect all parties will be found to have candidates who have said stupid or offensive things on Social Media. That's what happens with rushed selections.
Why all parties didn't get this sorted earlier in the year in case of a May election puzzles me.
The thing about Sunak's £2k Labour tax allegation is this, and I don't think it's been mentioned enough. The 'lie' is that Sunak intended, during the debate, for everybody to think Labour's alleged tax hike would be £2k per year, rather than £500 a year - i.e. over four years. And the Tories, including Hunt, continue to frame it as £2k rather than £500. £10 a week isn't a great deal; £40 a week is.
Regardless of the fact that the figure is pure conjecture anyway (I expect Labour to raise taxes, obviously), it's this sleight of hand that makes it a 'lie'.
True, however governments do this all the time especially in elections. New Labour often rolled multi year spending commitments up to make them seem more impressive. You get away with it when you’re in the ascendancy and not so much when not. It isn’t so much an issue because it’s dishonest, though it is, it’s an issue because the Tories are in trouble.
Sensational win for the USA cricket team. Disaster for Ladbrokes.
Reviewing the line-up it largely looks like Pakistan diaspora v. Pakistan to me.
Once upon a time I used to play for a pub cricket team that went each year to play a game in some foreign field - Cuba, Italy, Vietnam, any non-cricketing country that would have us. It was huge fun, but rather disappointingly the opposition invariably consisted of the India/Pakistan diaspora.
And they invariably won.
A friend of mine did a post doc in Canada and played cricket while there. The team was nine from the Caribbean, one Aussie and my mate (from Bury). Played on coconut mats on concrete, with an outfield so long anything hit along the ground went about a yard. Great fun.
Another friend played when in Glasgow. Many were of Pakistani background, sadly for my friend who views cricket in much the same way I do - a thirst generator pre pub…
We had similar ground problems in Havana, but the greater distraction was the hookers. There were far more of them on the boundary than on the square.
Sensational win for the USA cricket team. Disaster for Ladbrokes.
Reviewing the line-up it largely looks like Pakistan diaspora v. Pakistan to me.
Once upon a time I used to play for a pub cricket team that went each year to play a game in some foreign field - Cuba, Italy, Vietnam, any non-cricketing country that would have us. It was huge fun, but rather disappointingly the opposition invariably consisted of the India/Pakistan diaspora.
And they invariably won.
A friend of mine did a post doc in Canada and played cricket while there. The team was nine from the Caribbean, one Aussie and my mate (from Bury). Played on coconut mats on concrete, with an outfield so long anything hit along the ground went about a yard. Great fun.
Another friend played when in Glasgow. Many were of Pakistani background, sadly for my friend who views cricket in much the same way I do - a thirst generator pre pub…
We had similar ground problems in Havana, but the greater distraction was the hookers. There were far more of them on the boundary than on the square.
How is Sunak so crap? Is it the wealth that insulates him from reality?
It could be that he’s deliberately trying to get the Tories massacred.
Or it could be that he does not feel personally involved with D Day. How many members of his family were killed at Dunkirk? Or landed in Normandy Or were killed in the Blitz?
The same as mine? Being zero?
My maternal family lost a fair number during the war. Big old Wiltshire family, all the boys went off to fight and most didn’t come back. I have read widely over my life about both World Wars. I always try to imagine what it would have been like, whether I would have been able to do what so many did. The tragedy is that 80 years later we still live in a world where an evil dictator can command his armies to invade another country. On Sunak, I find it intersecting how harsh the reaction is on here. I flicked to the BBC home page and saw nothing about him leaving early. He was there, he attended. So he didn’t also attend a ceremony at Omaha beach, which was in the American sector (albeit many Brits and Commonwealth fought there in the Navy). The internet creates echo chambers and right now PB is just that.
I agree re the reaction.
But remember the Tories are targeting the boomers - who grew up on D-Day and who take it very seriously in terms of formal anniversaries with HMtQ/K and all else. Hence the remarks on ConHome etc.
Mark Harper repeats Rishi Sunak's lie about the £2,000 Labour tax
Fiona Bruce calls him out on it
Mark Harper doubles down
Fiona Bruce reads out the letter
Mark Harper triples down on it
Shabana Mahmood jumps in and calls him out
Look at Mark Harpers face - he knows he's telling lies and yet he carries on, Shameful
That's the point that MoonRabbit's been making: Rishi told those lies and refused to back down - so now senior Tories are stuck having to repeat them too if they don't want the story to suddenly become one of "Tory splits".
And it's going to get worse and worse for them every time the lies are repeated.
They really should have climbed down yesterday while it was still just about possible to do so, and relied on the £2000 figure sticking in people's minds.
I agree with your post. 🥰 Except the bit about Tories ever had the chance to avoid this mess, once Rishi had firmly lead with it.
And it’s not just the 2K Lie - every Conservative has to hold the line on boat crossings are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, over and over till election day, as these answers are now the actual spine of the Conservative campaign. 🫣
And with the 2K Lie, the fact the Civil Service immediately called Rishi a liar is the take out from it this week, but far more damaging in long run is those 12yr old SPADs whose never had to work for a living in their lives who created this, only got it to up to 2K figure by only working families paying for it, totally ignoring the rest of the tax system and how it works to fund Tory pledges. The spectator piece leapt on this part of the madness straightaway, because the daftness of saying that was visible from space. It’s dragged in “how much do all these Tory pledge's cost in the fantasy world just a subset of tax payers pay them”.
Sure there is lies and spin at elections, and the best of campaigns work and are legendary, but it has to be more sophisticated and subtle than something that instantly falls apart, into this “properly taking voters as mugs with your never ending lies” narrative in just 24hrs!
If Cummings clever £350M “gross on a bus” is Grad A version how to do it, this was more like D minus.
Interesting that on debate night SKS was called out for letting that ride unchallenged for several minutes. Yet the challenge, when it did come, after multiple repetitions of the fabrication, was very forceful and more prominent for allowing the repetition to occur and now it is causing the Tories issues.
I can't say for sure whether Starmer got lucky or was doing some Jason Beer let the lie sit there a while thing, but it has worked out.
Who do we reckon won the debate now?
It's hard to tell, because the polls are affected by Farage's entry into the fray, but I still suspect that when you see, "shameful Tory lies about a Labour plan to increase taxes by £2000" all most voters will hear and remember is, "mimble wimble blah Labour plan to increase taxes flibble dibble doo".
I think that will reduce the number of Labour gains, but I'm not sure whether it will be a marginal difference or a larger one.
I think that's how it would have worked out if Sunak had dropped the matter yesterday - the £2,000 figure would have stuck in people's minds even when the details had been forgotten.
But he's endangered that with his decision to double down on the lies, and by tetchily bickering about it with ITN. It's getting to the point that people's memories will centre on "Rishi lied, then dumped D-Day to lie again" rather than "£2,000".
Labour should make "Rishi's Tax Lies" a mantra for the rest of the campaign.
Sensational win for the USA cricket team. Disaster for Ladbrokes.
Reviewing the line-up it largely looks like Pakistan diaspora v. Pakistan to me.
Once upon a time I used to play for a pub cricket team that went each year to play a game in some foreign field - Cuba, Italy, Vietnam, any non-cricketing country that would have us. It was huge fun, but rather disappointingly the opposition invariably consisted of the India/Pakistan diaspora.
And they invariably won.
A friend of mine did a post doc in Canada and played cricket while there. The team was nine from the Caribbean, one Aussie and my mate (from Bury). Played on coconut mats on concrete, with an outfield so long anything hit along the ground went about a yard. Great fun.
Another friend played when in Glasgow. Many were of Pakistani background, sadly for my friend who views cricket in much the same way I do - a thirst generator pre pub…
We had similar ground problems in Havana, but the greater distraction was the hookers. There were far more of them on the boundary than on the square.
How is Sunak so crap? Is it the wealth that insulates him from reality?
It could be that he’s deliberately trying to get the Tories massacred.
Or it could be that he does not feel personally involved with D Day. How many members of his family were killed at Dunkirk? Or landed in Normandy Or were killed in the Blitz?
The same as mine? Being zero?
In my case it was one, one and two. So perhaps the end of the Second World War means a bit more to me than it does to you and Richi? And perhaps to many many more.....
How is Sunak so crap? Is it the wealth that insulates him from reality?
It could be that he’s deliberately trying to get the Tories massacred.
Or it could be that he does not feel personally involved with D Day. How many members of his family were killed at Dunkirk? Or landed in Normandy Or were killed in the Blitz?
I think Casino is right on this. It probably won't prove to be a big issue beyond tomorrow lunchtime when the agenda moves on.
If there are potential defectors, it might galvanise them.
Mark Harper repeats Rishi Sunak's lie about the £2,000 Labour tax
Fiona Bruce calls him out on it
Mark Harper doubles down
Fiona Bruce reads out the letter
Mark Harper triples down on it
Shabana Mahmood jumps in and calls him out
Look at Mark Harpers face - he knows he's telling lies and yet he carries on, Shameful
That's the point that MoonRabbit's been making: Rishi told those lies and refused to back down - so now senior Tories are stuck having to repeat them too if they don't want the story to suddenly become one of "Tory splits".
And it's going to get worse and worse for them every time the lies are repeated.
They really should have climbed down yesterday while it was still just about possible to do so, and relied on the £2000 figure sticking in people's minds.
I agree with your post. 🥰 Except the bit about Tories ever had the chance to avoid this mess, once Rishi had firmly lead with it.
And it’s not just the 2K Lie - every Conservative has to hold the line on boat crossings are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, over and over till election day, as these answers are now the actual spine of the Conservative campaign. 🫣
And with the 2K Lie, the fact the Civil Service immediately called Rishi a liar is the take out from it this week, but far more damaging in long run is those 12yr old SPADs whose never had to work for a living in their lives who created this, only got it to up to 2K figure by only working families paying for it, totally ignoring the rest of the tax system and how it works to fund Tory pledges. The spectator piece leapt on this part of the madness straightaway, because the daftness of saying that was visible from space. It’s dragged in “how much do all these Tory pledge's cost in the fantasy world just a subset of tax payers pay them”.
Sure there is lies and spin at elections, and the best of campaigns work and are legendary, but it has to be more sophisticated and subtle than something that instantly falls apart, into this “properly taking voters as mugs with your never ending lies” narrative in just 24hrs!
If Cummings clever £350M “gross on a bus” is Grad A version how to do it, this was more like D minus.
Interesting that on debate night SKS was called out for letting that ride unchallenged for several minutes. Yet the challenge, when it did come, after multiple repetitions of the fabrication, was very forceful and more prominent for allowing the repetition to occur and now it is causing the Tories issues.
I can't say for sure whether Starmer got lucky or was doing some Jason Beer let the lie sit there a while thing, but it has worked out.
Who do we reckon won the debate now?
Starmer’s luck is the Conservative Campaign itself. How the 2K Lie was so flimsy and silly it didn’t even survive 24 hours, is just a piece of a jigsaw - of a simple picture of a turd.
At the PO enquiry today, trying to get to the root of what went wrong, it was suggested a leader didn’t like challenge, surrounded themselves with yes boys and girls, and worked in an echo chamber. Read across: this is exactly the same as what has happened at the top of the Conservative Party in the last 5 years. This explains just how it can go so badly wrong.
You may not like Lady Thatcher, but I do so I was give you, that this could never have happened in the 1980s. Lady Thatcher had blunt Yorkshireman called Bernard as head of communications - who Tony Been praised for helping him when in government - who would never have allowed anyone out there to defend a lie as flimsy as this one.
3 polls taken on the debate itself, one narrow win to Rishi, 2 comfortable wins to Starmer, and in supplementaries in all three huge wins for Starmer on trust, honesty, tried to actually answer, as well as economy, NHS. Starmers problem was in the format, just thirty seconds to speak before the buzzer goes and it moves on, your opponent can exploit this by talking over your 30 seconds.
The main debate take out for the history books, is Rishi got through it with quite blatant lies in answer to just about every question, and the days that flowed the debate, those lies have become the main narrative of the whole election campaign.
Do you like putting yourself in dangerous situations?
Yes. Inasmuch as I hate being bored
Danger is unboring
But it has to be intellectually interesting danger. Warzones. Drug lords. Remarkable landscapes that are perilous to reach
Just wandering into the wrong lane of the motorway is not attractive, just stupid, selfish and suicidal. I want to know there is a story at the end of my excitement - that it will have value in some form
Odessa is probably close to my limit tho. I’ve now had a chunk of flak/missile land in my street and now this display of Russian air attack from my balcony - in 2 days. And I’ve been here 3
The thing about Sunak's £2k Labour tax allegation is this, and I don't think it's been mentioned enough. The 'lie' is that Sunak intended, during the debate, for everybody to think Labour's alleged tax hike would be £2k per year, rather than £500 a year - i.e. over four years. And the Tories, including Hunt, continue to frame it as £2k rather than £500. £10 a week isn't a great deal; £40 a week is.
Regardless of the fact that the figure is pure conjecture anyway (I expect Labour to raise taxes, obviously), it's this sleight of hand that makes it a 'lie'.
True, however governments do this all the time especially in elections. New Labour often rolled multi year spending commitments up to make them seem more impressive. You get away with it when you’re in the ascendancy and not so much when not. It isn’t so much an issue because it’s dishonest, though it is, it’s an issue because the Tories are in trouble.
Yes, but Labour is lying about tax. Anyone with half a brain knows they are. They will put them up and not just on "the rich". They are too much in hock to the public sector unions not to need the money to pay for way above inflation pay increases for the non-productive sector that makes up most of their base.
Sensational win for the USA cricket team. Disaster for Ladbrokes.
Reviewing the line-up it largely looks like Pakistan diaspora v. Pakistan to me.
Once upon a time I used to play for a pub cricket team that went each year to play a game in some foreign field - Cuba, Italy, Vietnam, any non-cricketing country that would have us. It was huge fun, but rather disappointingly the opposition invariably consisted of the India/Pakistan diaspora.
And they invariably won.
A friend of mine did a post doc in Canada and played cricket while there. The team was nine from the Caribbean, one Aussie and my mate (from Bury). Played on coconut mats on concrete, with an outfield so long anything hit along the ground went about a yard. Great fun.
Another friend played when in Glasgow. Many were of Pakistani background, sadly for my friend who views cricket in much the same way I do - a thirst generator pre pub…
We had similar ground problems in Havana, but the greater distraction was the hookers. There were far more of them on the boundary than on the square.
The thing about Sunak's £2k Labour tax allegation is this, and I don't think it's been mentioned enough. The 'lie' is that Sunak intended, during the debate, for everybody to think Labour's alleged tax hike would be £2k per year, rather than £500 a year - i.e. over four years. And the Tories, including Hunt, continue to frame it as £2k rather than £500. £10 a week isn't a great deal; £40 a week is.
Regardless of the fact that the figure is pure conjecture anyway (I expect Labour to raise taxes, obviously), it's this sleight of hand that makes it a 'lie'.
And it's £500 per working family - if split across all adults, it would have come out at something like £190!
It was such a risky thing to come out with, even the bits that weren't lies or based on dodgy assumptions were wildly over-inflated.
Baffling that not only did Rishi Sunak choose to skip a meeting of world leaders to do a TV interview, not only did he appear to abandon British veterans to do a TV interview....
...the interview isn't even going to be broadcast for another week.
How is Sunak so crap? Is it the wealth that insulates him from reality?
It could be that he’s deliberately trying to get the Tories massacred.
Or it could be that he does not feel personally involved with D Day. How many members of his family were killed at Dunkirk? Or landed in Normandy Or were killed in the Blitz?
The same as mine? Being zero?
In my case it was one, one and two. So perhaps the end of the Second World War means a bit more to me than it does to you and Richi? And perhaps to many many more.....
Arguably there are many out there for who the myths of WW2 are part of their national psyche? Brought up on heroic films (The longest day, the Dambusters), glorious comics, basking in being on the right side of history (no doubt defeating Naziism is a just war), the idea that Britain stood alone in 1940 (not really true - the Empire was steadfast too, and Canada went above and beyond - every Canadian soldier was a volunteer who did not need to be there). There is a rich and deep historiography of how the British think about WW2 ( and also to compare with sentiment around WW1 - arguably an equally just war - see Brest-Litovsk for how the Germans would have settled if they had won). It’s also interesting how much is made of D-Day, yet little of invading Italy. We had been fighting the Germans in Europe since the autumn of 1943. Al Murray makes the point that the standard story of WW2 for the British is phoney warm Dunkirk, D-Day, Arnhem and then VE Day. Certain events have become the focus, yet it was just as grim to die in the winter mud in January 1945 as on a beach on 6th June.
The thing about Sunak's £2k Labour tax allegation is this, and I don't think it's been mentioned enough. The 'lie' is that Sunak intended, during the debate, for everybody to think Labour's alleged tax hike would be £2k per year, rather than £500 a year - i.e. over four years. And the Tories, including Hunt, continue to frame it as £2k rather than £500. £10 a week isn't a great deal; £40 a week is.
Regardless of the fact that the figure is pure conjecture anyway (I expect Labour to raise taxes, obviously), it's this sleight of hand that makes it a 'lie'.
True, however governments do this all the time especially in elections. New Labour often rolled multi year spending commitments up to make them seem more impressive. You get away with it when you’re in the ascendancy and not so much when not. It isn’t so much an issue because it’s dishonest, though it is, it’s an issue because the Tories are in trouble.
Yes, but Labour is lying about tax. Anyone with half a brain knows they are. They will put them up and not just on "the rich". They are too much in hock to the public sector unions not to need the money to pay for way above inflation pay increases for the non-productive sector that makes up most of their base.
A sector where pay rises have been so bad that workers now get 30% less compared than private sextor works when you compare 2010 to now.
No wonder anyone who could get a job in the private sector left leaving just the public spirited and lazy workers behind
The thing about Sunak's £2k Labour tax allegation is this, and I don't think it's been mentioned enough. The 'lie' is that Sunak intended, during the debate, for everybody to think Labour's alleged tax hike would be £2k per year, rather than £500 a year - i.e. over four years. And the Tories, including Hunt, continue to frame it as £2k rather than £500. £10 a week isn't a great deal; £40 a week is.
Regardless of the fact that the figure is pure conjecture anyway (I expect Labour to raise taxes, obviously), it's this sleight of hand that makes it a 'lie'.
And it's £500 per working family - if split across all adults, it would have come out at something like £190!
It was such a risky thing to come out with, even the bits that weren't lies or based on dodgy assumptions were wildly over-inflated.
Hang on, I am confused, I am sure this was widely considered by PB Tories to be a stroke of genius by Sunak to win the debate and swing the momentum decisively just a couple of days ago?
How is Sunak so crap? Is it the wealth that insulates him from reality?
It could be that he’s deliberately trying to get the Tories massacred.
Or it could be that he does not feel personally involved with D Day. How many members of his family were killed at Dunkirk? Or landed in Normandy Or were killed in the Blitz?
The same as mine? Being zero?
In my case it was one, one and two. So perhaps the end of the Second World War means a bit more to me than it does to you and Richi? And perhaps to many many more.....
Arguably there are many out there for who the myths of WW2 are part of their national psyche? Brought up on heroic films (The longest day, the Dambusters), glorious comics, basking in being on the right side of history (no doubt defeating Naziism is a just war), the idea that Britain stood alone in 1940 (not really true - the Empire was steadfast too, and Canada went above and beyond - every Canadian soldier was a volunteer who did not need to be there). There is a rich and deep historiography of how the British think about WW2 ( and also to compare with sentiment around WW1 - arguably an equally just war - see Brest-Litovsk for how the Germans would have settled if they had won). It’s also interesting how much is made of D-Day, yet little of invading Italy. We had been fighting the Germans in Europe since the autumn of 1943. Al Murray makes the point that the standard story of WW2 for the British is phoney warm Dunkirk, D-Day, Arnhem and then VE Day. Certain events have become the focus, yet it was just as grim to die in the winter mud in January 1945 as on a beach on 6th June.
The thing about Sunak's £2k Labour tax allegation is this, and I don't think it's been mentioned enough. The 'lie' is that Sunak intended, during the debate, for everybody to think Labour's alleged tax hike would be £2k per year, rather than £500 a year - i.e. over four years. And the Tories, including Hunt, continue to frame it as £2k rather than £500. £10 a week isn't a great deal; £40 a week is.
Regardless of the fact that the figure is pure conjecture anyway (I expect Labour to raise taxes, obviously), it's this sleight of hand that makes it a 'lie'.
True, however governments do this all the time especially in elections. New Labour often rolled multi year spending commitments up to make them seem more impressive. You get away with it when you’re in the ascendancy and not so much when not. It isn’t so much an issue because it’s dishonest, though it is, it’s an issue because the Tories are in trouble.
Yes, but Labour is lying about tax. Anyone with half a brain knows they are. They will put them up and not just on "the rich". They are too much in hock to the public sector unions not to need the money to pay for way above inflation pay increases for the non-productive sector that makes up most of their base.
Neither party is being upfront about the economy and the measures necessary to correct it. The Tories aren’t because in less than a month it’s somebody else’s job. The Labour Party became they know that if they fronted up to how they were going to try to fix things it would frighten the horses. It’s why neither of them are staking much of a claim to my vote.
The thing about Sunak's £2k Labour tax allegation is this, and I don't think it's been mentioned enough. The 'lie' is that Sunak intended, during the debate, for everybody to think Labour's alleged tax hike would be £2k per year, rather than £500 a year - i.e. over four years. And the Tories, including Hunt, continue to frame it as £2k rather than £500. £10 a week isn't a great deal; £40 a week is.
Regardless of the fact that the figure is pure conjecture anyway (I expect Labour to raise taxes, obviously), it's this sleight of hand that makes it a 'lie'.
And it's £500 per working family - if split across all adults, it would have come out at something like £190!
It was such a risky thing to come out with, even the bits that weren't lies or based on dodgy assumptions were wildly over-inflated.
Hang on, I am confused, I am sure this was widely considered by PB Tories to be a stroke of genius by Sunak to win the debate and swing the momentum decisively just a couple of days ago?
It obviously had some considerable effect as Labour supporters have been jerking themselves off about it ever since because they know Labour is going to put up taxes substantially and it will hit ordinary people. Ordinary people are not what Labour considers to be "working people" whatever the fuck that means in their class obsessed small minds.
Baffling that not only did Rishi Sunak choose to skip a meeting of world leaders to do a TV interview, not only did he appear to abandon British veterans to do a TV interview....
...the interview isn't even going to be broadcast for another week.
Maybe it's the same flaw that he displayed when he walked out to call the election in the rain. He just sticks to his schedule and can't adjust in the moment to consider how things look.
* To be paid for by cracking down on tax avoidance. Again.
I look forward to the IFS analysis of the Tory manifesto.
Tim (once of this place) always said this was a George Osborne wheeze designed to be ditched just in time for a General Election. It's only taken the current incompetent arseh*les 9 extra years. Go well, Tim.
Mark Harper repeats Rishi Sunak's lie about the £2,000 Labour tax
Fiona Bruce calls him out on it
Mark Harper doubles down
Fiona Bruce reads out the letter
Mark Harper triples down on it
Shabana Mahmood jumps in and calls him out
Look at Mark Harpers face - he knows he's telling lies and yet he carries on, Shameful
That's the point that MoonRabbit's been making: Rishi told those lies and refused to back down - so now senior Tories are stuck having to repeat them too if they don't want the story to suddenly become one of "Tory splits".
And it's going to get worse and worse for them every time the lies are repeated.
They really should have climbed down yesterday while it was still just about possible to do so, and relied on the £2000 figure sticking in people's minds.
I agree with your post. 🥰 Except the bit about Tories ever had the chance to avoid this mess, once Rishi had firmly lead with it.
And it’s not just the 2K Lie - every Conservative has to hold the line on boat crossings are down, waiting lists are down, pensioners have never paid tax, Rwanda will be a fabulous deterrent, over and over till election day, as these answers are now the actual spine of the Conservative campaign. 🫣
And with the 2K Lie, the fact the Civil Service immediately called Rishi a liar is the take out from it this week, but far more damaging in long run is those 12yr old SPADs whose never had to work for a living in their lives who created this, only got it to up to 2K figure by only working families paying for it, totally ignoring the rest of the tax system and how it works to fund Tory pledges. The spectator piece leapt on this part of the madness straightaway, because the daftness of saying that was visible from space. It’s dragged in “how much do all these Tory pledge's cost in the fantasy world just a subset of tax payers pay them”.
Sure there is lies and spin at elections, and the best of campaigns work and are legendary, but it has to be more sophisticated and subtle than something that instantly falls apart, into this “properly taking voters as mugs with your never ending lies” narrative in just 24hrs!
If Cummings clever £350M “gross on a bus” is Grad A version how to do it, this was more like D minus.
Interesting that on debate night SKS was called out for letting that ride unchallenged for several minutes. Yet the challenge, when it did come, after multiple repetitions of the fabrication, was very forceful and more prominent for allowing the repetition to occur and now it is causing the Tories issues.
I can't say for sure whether Starmer got lucky or was doing some Jason Beer let the lie sit there a while thing, but it has worked out.
Who do we reckon won the debate now?
Starmer’s luck is the Conservative Campaign itself. How the 2K Lie was so flimsy and silly it didn’t even survive 24 hours, is just a piece of a jigsaw - of a simple picture of a turd.
At the PO enquiry today, trying to get to the root of what went wrong, it was suggested a leader didn’t like challenge, surrounded themselves with yes boys and girls, and worked in an echo chamber. Read across: this is exactly the same as what has happened at the top of the Conservative Party in the last 5 years. This explains just how it can go so badly wrong.
You may not like Lady Thatcher, but I do so I was give you, that this could never have happened in the 1980s. Lady Thatcher had blunt Yorkshireman called Bernard as head of communications - who Tony Been praised for helping him when in government - who would never have allowed anyone out there to defend a lie as flimsy as this one.
3 polls taken on the debate itself, one narrow win to Rishi, 2 comfortable wins to Starmer, and in supplementaries in all three huge wins for Starmer on trust, honesty, tried to actually answer, as well as economy, NHS. Starmers problem was in the format, just thirty seconds to speak before the buzzer goes and it moves on, your opponent can exploit this by talking over your 30 seconds.
The main debate take out for the history books, is Rishi got through it with quite blatant lies in answer to just about every question, and the days that flowed the debate, those lies have become the main narrative of the whole election campaign.
Also an object lesson in the effect of power draining from you.
I think the first Official Treasury Tax Bombshell was cooked up by Lawson in 1987. And the central dishonesty- yes the Treasury crunch the numbers but the skill is in the assumptions, and they come from the party- has been there throughout.
Two things seem different this time. Partly Labour being forensic, asking the right question so that they get a rebuttal on paper, ready to go. I don't think anyone has bothered before.
But more importantly, power has drained from this government in a way that exceeds 2010 and 1997. And once both power and the prospect of power drain away, underlings are much more prepared to blow raspberries.
A lot of charisma is bluff. And now that Sunak's has been called, there's very little of him left.
* To be paid for by cracking down on tax avoidance. Again.
I look forward to the IFS analysis of the Tory manifesto.
The Tory approaches seems to be following the Corbyn manifesto of 2019. Throw loads of red meat towards the base, but a) lots of rubbish policies crowding out the ones that individually perhaps are ok, b) but in the totality, everybody with half a brain goes hold on it just isn't possible to do that.
The triple lock++ for oldies, the new triple lock, no tax rises, I presume IHT abolished with be in there.
Tim Montgomery: "If I lived in Clacton I would definitely vote for Farage".
"He speaks the language of Tory activists"
He speaks the language of the swiveleyed loons that sadly make up too large a percentage of Tory activists, but even Tory activists know that Montgomery is a self appointed self serving tw*t
Comments
Seems to be less a case of Con2019ers going Labour now going Reform, but rather former apathetics and undecided coming back out to vote, but vote for Ref.
https://x.com/BNHWalker/status/1798763752453754952?t=zIAn6Pkb2Qcr2u_bRb3Rbg&s=19
If Ben is right, then turnout may be ticking up.
They aren't. They can't change tack whilst that dissonance persists.
Only a couple of cataclysmic defeats can relieve them of the burden of that illusion.
The most notable point is this is precisely the opposite change that was predicted by many: that a Tory squeeze of Reform voters would close the gap meaningfully.
Will the momentum last? Well, the good news is I think any Farage party has a ceiling of support at around 20% or so in a general election. He's a divisive figure even amongst those on the right, and his party has no real depth in the way even the Lib Dems do at a local or national level.
But even support at those levels risks an extinction level event for the Tories: with the Lib Dems and Labour making unlikely wins in their respective areas of strength on the back of an inefficient Reform vote.
Sunak needs Farage to be sidelined in the campaign. If only he hadn't majored his campaign on Rwanda and National Service, two ludicrous schemes where Farage can always outdo him.
Starmer can keep his head down and win by default. But the lower vote %, if not lower vote count, may raise questions as to how strong a mandate he has vs. how strong a rejection of the Tories we've witnessed.
Davey should just keep doing what he's doing. He's the most likable of the four, but the least well known.
I think that will reduce the number of Labour gains, but I'm not sure whether it will be a marginal difference or a larger one.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/cd11j83n5jjt
Destroying the Tories being the main goal anyway, and more prominent people probably wouldn't help any.
Maybe Anderson hopes for prominence though.
Lab 42.6%
Con 21.7%
Ref 14.7% (includes the first one which had them on just 9%)
LD 9.6%
Grn 6.3%
SNP 3.1%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#National_poll_results
Baxter:
Lab 496
Con 69
LD 47
Grn 2
SNP 14
But the post-debate is always going to be a separate thing, and it doesn't yet feel like Sunak has been able to build off it at all, whereas Starmer is blunting what might have cut through.
And on that fine way to end I’ll wish you all a good night.
Regardless of the fact that the figure is pure conjecture anyway (I expect Labour to raise taxes, obviously), it's this sleight of hand that makes it a 'lie'.
https://imgur.com/gallery/OexI6bW
Odessa is now huddled in shelters - and bathrooms
I'm not aware of a relative who was even in the Forces at all, let alone in WW2, until my only brother earlier this century.
It can't be easy when all of Europe comes together to commemorate your side getting beaten.
https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1798675596416823667
But the only one who might have made a decent fist of it was Gove. He might have done OK in the "minding the shop and keeping the nutters out" role post-defeat as well.
He might not have been goodz but he'd have been better than all this.
And although I don't think any Indian Army (in the old sense) units served in NWE, they did serve in the Med/Africa/Italy and possibly South France. And CBI of course.
The latter seems unlikely, so boring as it is a workmanlike campaign, focused on key areas and hoping to sweep a few dozen seats in the wake of a Labour landslide is a solid aim.
[@thetimes]
The Greens should probably be concerned about the ones not in the dossier as if there are any and they blow up post closure of nominations that would be unfortunate.
First Tory debate - public reaction Tugendhat 36% vs Truss 6% - Tories pick Truss and of course she had no public backing for the extreme changes she wanted to rapidly introduce....
On Sunak, I find it intersecting how harsh the reaction is on here. I flicked to the BBC home page and saw nothing about him leaving early. He was there, he attended. So he didn’t also attend a ceremony at Omaha beach, which was in the American sector (albeit many Brits and Commonwealth fought there in the Navy). The internet creates echo chambers and right now PB is just that.
Confirmed: Rishi Sunak returned from D-Day for ITV interview, @PaulBrandITV says on News At Ten
So @paulbrandITV says “today was the slot we were offered. We don’t know why”.
Seems to suggest leaving D-Day events to do a TV interview was Rishi Sunak’s idea.
Why all parties didn't get this sorted earlier in the year in case of a May election puzzles me.
(Sorry)
But remember the Tories are targeting the boomers - who grew up on D-Day and who take it very seriously in terms of formal anniversaries with HMtQ/K and all else. Hence the remarks on ConHome etc.
But he's endangered that with his decision to double down on the lies, and by tetchily bickering about it with ITN. It's getting to the point that people's memories will centre on "Rishi lied, then dumped D-Day to lie again" rather than "£2,000".
Labour should make "Rishi's Tax Lies" a mantra for the rest of the campaign.
At the PO enquiry today, trying to get to the root of what went wrong, it was suggested a leader didn’t like challenge, surrounded themselves with yes boys and girls, and worked in an echo chamber. Read across: this is exactly the same as what has happened at the top of the Conservative Party in the last 5 years. This explains just how it can go so badly wrong.
You may not like Lady Thatcher, but I do so I was give you, that this could never have happened in the 1980s. Lady Thatcher had blunt Yorkshireman called Bernard as head of communications - who Tony Been praised for helping him when in government - who would never have allowed anyone out there to defend a lie as flimsy as this one.
3 polls taken on the debate itself, one narrow win to Rishi, 2 comfortable wins to Starmer, and in supplementaries in all three huge wins for Starmer on trust, honesty, tried to actually answer, as well as economy, NHS. Starmers problem was in the format, just thirty seconds to speak before the buzzer goes and it moves on, your opponent can exploit this by talking over your 30 seconds.
The main debate take out for the history books, is Rishi got through it with quite blatant lies in answer to just about every question, and the days that flowed the debate, those lies have become the main narrative of the whole election campaign.
Danger is unboring
But it has to be intellectually interesting danger. Warzones. Drug lords. Remarkable landscapes that are perilous to reach
Just wandering into the wrong lane of the motorway is not attractive, just stupid, selfish and suicidal. I want to know there is a story at the end of my excitement - that it will have value in some form
Odessa is probably close to my limit tho. I’ve now had a chunk of flak/missile land in my street and now this display of Russian air attack from my balcony - in 2 days. And I’ve been here 3
STORY
Fury after Rishi Sunak skips D-Day event with world leaders to do TV interview - leaving British veterans behind
https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1798828835586404571
@IanDunt
Sunak has the political judgement of a rotting fish carcass discovered at the bottom of a public bin.
At the going down of the sun, and in the morning, we* will remember them.
https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1798829922150125855
*Except Richi. He's back home in bed...
It was such a risky thing to come out with, even the bits that weren't lies or based on dodgy assumptions were wildly over-inflated.
Baffling that not only did Rishi Sunak choose to skip a meeting of world leaders to do a TV interview, not only did he appear to abandon British veterans to do a TV interview....
...the interview isn't even going to be broadcast for another week.
There is a rich and deep historiography of how the British think about WW2 ( and also to compare with sentiment around WW1 - arguably an equally just war - see Brest-Litovsk for how the Germans would have settled if they had won).
It’s also interesting how much is made of D-Day, yet little of invading Italy. We had been fighting the Germans in Europe since the autumn of 1943. Al Murray makes the point that the standard story of WW2 for the British is phoney warm Dunkirk, D-Day, Arnhem and then VE Day. Certain events have become the focus, yet it was just as grim to die in the winter mud in January 1945 as on a beach on 6th June.
No wonder anyone who could get a job in the private sector left leaving just the public spirited and lazy workers behind
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/06/tories-pledge-to-raise-pay-threshold-for-child-benefit-charge
* To be paid for by cracking down on tax avoidance.
Again.
“Odesa is under drone attack 🇷🇺 . Explosions are heard in various parts of the city. Odesa in the dark is illuminated by defense rockets 🇺🇦”
https://x.com/mall_atti/status/1798827461041586269?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
"He speaks the language of Tory activists"
I think the first Official Treasury Tax Bombshell was cooked up by Lawson in 1987. And the central dishonesty- yes the Treasury crunch the numbers but the skill is in the assumptions, and they come from the party- has been there throughout.
Two things seem different this time. Partly Labour being forensic, asking the right question so that they get a rebuttal on paper, ready to go. I don't think anyone has bothered before.
But more importantly, power has drained from this government in a way that exceeds 2010 and 1997. And once both power and the prospect of power drain away, underlings are much more prepared to blow raspberries.
A lot of charisma is bluff. And now that Sunak's has been called, there's very little of him left.
I'm almost ready to feel sorry for him.
The triple lock++ for oldies, the new triple lock, no tax rises, I presume IHT abolished with be in there.
It was almost identical.