Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

And From The Other Side of the Pond… – politicalbetting.com

17810121327

Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    This is actually one of those ones where it’s a slow burn. The decision is so mind bendingly, insanely bad the brain can’t initially process it. “Should the PM stay and honour our fallen, or get back for a quick hit for ITN that will go out next week? ITN? Yeah, good call”.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1798848357265523127

    Its is not only totally inexcusable, but literally unfathomable. Its not like he nicked off early from a constituency opening of a new Spoons because ITV said could he do a big interview at short notice. Did neither him nor any of his team think hmm over there is Macron, Biden, the King, sorry lads, I off now, gotta be up early tomorrow. And it was in sodding Northern France, take you bugger all time to jellycopter it back to London, I am sure ITV would have done 2-3hrs later.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Latest Tory unfunded* bung to the well off.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/06/tories-pledge-to-raise-pay-threshold-for-child-benefit-charge

    * To be paid for by cracking down on tax avoidance.
    Again.

    I look forward to the IFS analysis of the Tory manifesto.
    The Tory approaches seems to be following the Corbyn manifesto of 2019. Throw loads of red meat towards the base, but a) lots of rubbish policies crowding out the ones that individually perhaps are ok, b) but in the totality, everybody with half a brain goes hold on it just isn't possible to do that.

    The triple lock++ for oldies, the new triple lock, no tax rises, I presume IHT abolished with be in there.
    They’re trying to out-Reform Reform, and that’s going to be impossible now. Because Farage is a far more skilled salesman than Sunak. He has his own particular type of baggage, but he’s not (thank god, many of us would say) ever had to run anything, so he’s a fresh slate in that respect.

    The more I look at this the more I think the Tories are screwed and we’re on course for a significant realignment on the right. I thought it would come in the next parliament, but I am starting to think it might actually have arrived early.
    There is a general lack of inventive policy across the board. Even Labour flagship stuff like a wealth fund is actually just rehashed centralised PFI when you look at it.
    The truth is that at the present time and with our demographics, there is very little scope for major spending. Particularly so when we are taxed at a post war record, and at a rate set to increase for another 4 years.
    Which is why I think Labour will have to go big on construction - all those extra jobs, all the VAT on materials, increased council tax as 4 & 5 bed flatshares split into more homes and stamp duty from increased sales. The cost to the exchequer is practically zero, it's popular and the people it annoys were never going to vote for them anyway.
    It's a very good point about building generating a lot of income for both local and national government.

    It's a no-brainer of a policy.
    It needs to be the right sort of building. Council houses and 1 abd 2 bedroom starter homes that people can actually afford to buy. Stop building all those 4 and 5 bedroom executive estates that don't help the people at the bottom.
    Let the market decide - besides there's lots of evidence that high end property construction filters on average 13 families into every property for each one built. If you build e.g. social rent housing you help 1, maybe 2 or 3 families. Higher end housing cascades down improving the lot of more families.

    However overall adopting zoning like NZ is the way to go. After a few years the markets will decide what is needed. Zoning of course needs to be paired with getting rid of the ridiculous nutrient neutrality, bat bullshit and other ridiculous red tape so that new entrants can actually enter the market again.
    Bullshit. What the market decides is that when house prices stop rising they stop building houses. The market is broken.
    We kind of agree on the last pointl it's nowhere near a free market current - the Government imposes huge costs to apply for housing, which it then puts into an approval tombola. This forces out a lot of potential suppliers. Then they insist on ridiculous standards for anything to get built which means that unless you have a set of generic plans to copy and paste as well as in-house bat faeces consultants it's impractical to build as much more than a hobby.

    We need to open up the market and tear down the barriers to entry by eliminating the planning approval lottery as well as many of the more restrictive rent-seekers who current have to have input into basically every application. I know of several small scale house builders who have been forced out by all this nonsense in the past decade - which has led to massive consolidation in the housebuilding market. Reduce the barriers to entry/operate and watch the market fix itself.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,351

    Andy_JS said:

    Average of the 7 polls since Farage's announcement.

    Lab 42.6%
    Con 21.7%
    Ref 14.7% (includes the first one which had them on just 9%)
    LD 9.6%
    Grn 6.3%
    SNP 3.1%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#National_poll_results

    Baxter:

    Lab 496
    Con 69
    LD 47
    Grn 2
    SNP 14

    No seats for REF at all?
    Not with Baxter.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,600


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    This is actually one of those ones where it’s a slow burn. The decision is so mind bendingly, insanely bad the brain can’t initially process it. “Should the PM stay and honour our fallen, or get back for a quick hit for ITN that will go out next week? ITN? Yeah, good call”.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1798848357265523127

    He could apologise and blame it on not having been made to do national service in his youth.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    Sunak is done.

    It is finally over.


    BBC Newsnight
    @BBCNewsnight
    “I think it’s political malpractice of the highest order if Rishi Sunak absented himself for an election interview… it’s not the right thing to do at a fundamental level.”

    Conservative commentator Tim Montgomerie on reports as to why the PM left D-Day event early.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Sunak is done.

    It is finally over.


    BBC Newsnight
    @BBCNewsnight
    “I think it’s political malpractice of the highest order if Rishi Sunak absented himself for an election interview… it’s not the right thing to do at a fundamental level.”

    Conservative commentator Tim Montgomerie on reports as to why the PM left D-Day event early.

    Hodges (as ever) reporting an apocalyptic mood.

    Can they sack him before the election?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,631
    MattW said:

    biggles said:

    MattW said:

    First data coming in about the likely impact of the Welsh 20mph speed limit in residential areas.

    The casualties on 20 and 30mph roads down by 29%. Difficult to split down as so many have changed category between the two. Also worth noting that that does not identify categories of casualty.

    It's nice to have some numbers during the Election campaign, though only one quarter's worth.

    The number of people injured on 20 and 30mph roads in Wales fell by almost a third in the final quarter of last year, new data published by the Welsh government shows.

    The figures show there were 463 casualties on such roads between October and December, down from 681 in the same period a year earlier.

    The Welsh Labour government has credited the introduction of default 20mph default speed limits, which took effect last September, but Conservatives said more data was needed. Plaid Cymru, which supported the policy, said the figures were "encouraging".

    Labour has since committed to a review of the new law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjee04vlqglo


    I’m not sure about that as a success metric.

    If we limited cars to 5mph on all roads, fatalities would drop to near zero. We don’t do that, because we balance the need to move around more quickly, and so we find a balance - in the past set to about 30mph.

    The only meaningful figure here would be deaths vs productivity/embuggerance, and there’s no “right” answer.
    I agree that reduction to 5mph is a red herring by reductio ad adsurbam. No one is proposing that, and it's really a distraction from the serious argument you suggest - the question is choosing a balance.

    Is 20mph is a better balance than 30mph, and where and how extensively should it be used?

    I suggest that 30 years of experience with hundreds of 20mph schemes in the UK, and extensive experience abroad, shows that it is a better balance for extensive use in urban environments - such as residential and shopping areas.

    On speed of moving around, we need data. I'm sure that will become available.

    There are also a mass of subjective factors, such as pleasantness of environment for us all to live in, noise, systematic safety (ie the system we use for H&S applied to the road / street environment) and so on.
    Yes and no - picking a silly 5mph is really just a way of showing in writing what must exist on a graph. It will always be true that reducing speeds on the roads (all roads) will reduce deaths. But we don’t approach it from that “end”. We pick a level of road deaths people will tolerate, if they can get from A to B quickly, and set the other conditions accordingly.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,447
    MattW said:

    biggles said:

    MattW said:

    First data coming in about the likely impact of the Welsh 20mph speed limit in residential areas.

    The casualties on 20 and 30mph roads down by 29%. Difficult to split down as so many have changed category between the two. Also worth noting that that does not identify categories of casualty.

    It's nice to have some numbers during the Election campaign, though only one quarter's worth.

    The number of people injured on 20 and 30mph roads in Wales fell by almost a third in the final quarter of last year, new data published by the Welsh government shows.

    The figures show there were 463 casualties on such roads between October and December, down from 681 in the same period a year earlier.

    The Welsh Labour government has credited the introduction of default 20mph default speed limits, which took effect last September, but Conservatives said more data was needed. Plaid Cymru, which supported the policy, said the figures were "encouraging".

    Labour has since committed to a review of the new law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjee04vlqglo


    I’m not sure about that as a success metric.

    If we limited cars to 5mph on all roads, fatalities would drop to near zero. We don’t do that, because we balance the need to move around more quickly, and so we find a balance - in the past set to about 30mph.

    The only meaningful figure here would be deaths vs productivity/embuggerance, and there’s no “right” answer.
    I agree that reduction to 5mph is a red herring by reductio ad adsurbam. No one is proposing that, and it's really a distraction from the serious argument you suggest - the question is choosing a balance.

    Is 20mph is a better balance than 30mph, and where and how extensively should it be used?

    I suggest that 30 years of experience with hundreds of 20mph schemes in the UK, and extensive experience abroad, shows that it is a better balance for extensive use in urban environments - such as residential and shopping areas.

    On speed of moving around, we need data. I'm sure that will become available.

    There are also a mass of subjective factors, such as pleasantness of environment for us all to live in, noise, systematic safety (ie the system we use for H&S applied to the road / street environment) and so on.
    I’ve got this weird theory that I get around by north London suburb quicker under the 20mph regime than the old 30mph system. Less reversing required to let another car through bottlenecks. But I can’t prove it, the driving just feels less staccato.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Farage is going to be like an XL bully with an unattended child when it comes to the D-Day stuff tomorrow.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,856
    edited June 6

    MattW said:

    First data coming in about the likely impact of the Welsh 20mph speed limit in residential areas.

    The casualties on 20 and 30mph roads down by 29%. Difficult to split down as so many have changed category between the two. Also worth noting that that does not identify categories of casualty.

    It's nice to have some numbers during the Election campaign, though only one quarter's worth.

    The number of people injured on 20 and 30mph roads in Wales fell by almost a third in the final quarter of last year, new data published by the Welsh government shows.

    The figures show there were 463 casualties on such roads between October and December, down from 681 in the same period a year earlier.

    The Welsh Labour government has credited the introduction of default 20mph default speed limits, which took effect last September, but Conservatives said more data was needed. Plaid Cymru, which supported the policy, said the figures were "encouraging".

    Labour has since committed to a review of the new law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjee04vlqglo

    Lies, damned lies and statistics. It took about 2 minutes to find that road casualties have been falling continuously from a (very high) peak in 2005 and that the trend over the last 2 years is no different to the overall trend of the last 18 years (accepting a trough in 2020 when far fewer people were driving because of covid.)
    I think you need to provide a cite on that TBH. You have data showing that trend for this subset of roads over 20 years?

    You can't evaluate a particular intervention related to a particular subset by quoting a general trend; that's introducing noise into the data.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6
    biggles said:

    MattW said:

    biggles said:

    MattW said:

    First data coming in about the likely impact of the Welsh 20mph speed limit in residential areas.

    The casualties on 20 and 30mph roads down by 29%. Difficult to split down as so many have changed category between the two. Also worth noting that that does not identify categories of casualty.

    It's nice to have some numbers during the Election campaign, though only one quarter's worth.

    The number of people injured on 20 and 30mph roads in Wales fell by almost a third in the final quarter of last year, new data published by the Welsh government shows.

    The figures show there were 463 casualties on such roads between October and December, down from 681 in the same period a year earlier.

    The Welsh Labour government has credited the introduction of default 20mph default speed limits, which took effect last September, but Conservatives said more data was needed. Plaid Cymru, which supported the policy, said the figures were "encouraging".

    Labour has since committed to a review of the new law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjee04vlqglo


    I’m not sure about that as a success metric.

    If we limited cars to 5mph on all roads, fatalities would drop to near zero. We don’t do that, because we balance the need to move around more quickly, and so we find a balance - in the past set to about 30mph.

    The only meaningful figure here would be deaths vs productivity/embuggerance, and there’s no “right” answer.
    I agree that reduction to 5mph is a red herring by reductio ad adsurbam. No one is proposing that, and it's really a distraction from the serious argument you suggest - the question is choosing a balance.

    Is 20mph is a better balance than 30mph, and where and how extensively should it be used?

    I suggest that 30 years of experience with hundreds of 20mph schemes in the UK, and extensive experience abroad, shows that it is a better balance for extensive use in urban environments - such as residential and shopping areas.

    On speed of moving around, we need data. I'm sure that will become available.

    There are also a mass of subjective factors, such as pleasantness of environment for us all to live in, noise, systematic safety (ie the system we use for H&S applied to the road / street environment) and so on.
    Yes and no - picking a silly 5mph is really just a way of showing in writing what must exist on a graph. It will always be true that reducing speeds on the roads (all roads) will reduce deaths. But we don’t approach it from that “end”. We pick a level of road deaths people will tolerate, if they can get from A to B quickly, and set the other conditions accordingly.
    Arhh but post COVID world, must aim for zero COVID road deaths.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,351

    Sunak is done.

    It is finally over.


    BBC Newsnight
    @BBCNewsnight
    “I think it’s political malpractice of the highest order if Rishi Sunak absented himself for an election interview… it’s not the right thing to do at a fundamental level.”

    Conservative commentator Tim Montgomerie on reports as to why the PM left D-Day event early.

    Big news today, forgotten in 48 hours' time. The reality of politics.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    Sunak last weekend: "We need National Service. The young need to understand community, sense of values, togetherness, a higher purpose, break out of their little bubbles"

    Sunak today: "fuck the 90 year old veterans who actually did service and watch their mates all die, I'm off..."

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,631
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Latest Tory unfunded* bung to the well off.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/06/tories-pledge-to-raise-pay-threshold-for-child-benefit-charge

    * To be paid for by cracking down on tax avoidance.
    Again.

    I look forward to the IFS analysis of the Tory manifesto.
    The Tory approaches seems to be following the Corbyn manifesto of 2019. Throw loads of red meat towards the base, but a) lots of rubbish policies crowding out the ones that individually perhaps are ok, b) but in the totality, everybody with half a brain goes hold on it just isn't possible to do that.

    The triple lock++ for oldies, the new triple lock, no tax rises, I presume IHT abolished with be in there.
    They’re trying to out-Reform Reform, and that’s going to be impossible now. Because Farage is a far more skilled salesman than Sunak. He has his own particular type of baggage, but he’s not (thank god, many of us would say) ever had to run anything, so he’s a fresh slate in that respect.

    The more I look at this the more I think the Tories are screwed and we’re on course for a significant realignment on the right. I thought it would come in the next parliament, but I am starting to think it might actually have arrived early.
    There is a general lack of inventive policy across the board. Even Labour flagship stuff like a wealth fund is actually just rehashed centralised PFI when you look at it.
    The truth is that at the present time and with our demographics, there is very little scope for major spending. Particularly so when we are taxed at a post war record, and at a rate set to increase for another 4 years.
    Which is why I think Labour will have to go big on construction - all those extra jobs, all the VAT on materials, increased council tax as 4 & 5 bed flatshares split into more homes and stamp duty from increased sales. The cost to the exchequer is practically zero, it's popular and the people it annoys were never going to vote for them anyway.
    It's a very good point about building generating a lot of income for both local and national government.

    It's a no-brainer of a policy.
    Fingers crossed they adopt it, but it's too much of an open goal not to, especially with the likely large majority and large number of young candidates selected by Labour.

    I've just covered the immediate effects - renters (who are solidly Labour) may see reductions in rent - which will bolster support for Labour (and increase alcohol duty receipts...) and councils need to pay less in housing benefit are two other big benefits.
    It can be tricky, but making it attractive to redevelop high street buildings into residential seems like one approach. The high street is never coming back the way it was, you can throw all the money you like but internet shopping is here to stay and young people want to live in town so they can socialise within walking distance.
    It's already relatively easy and up until September I would have agreed with you. Then I went to Lille. Because buildings are so much cheaper over there (and denser...) commercial properties are much cheaper to rent. The number of niche stores open 4 days a week was ridiculous, probably 80% of those stores would have been DOA in the UK.
    Isn't the problem in the UK not just the actual rent, but the rateable values of the property leads to very high taxes for luxury of just being a shop.
    Potentially - all I know is that rents/cost of running a shop are much higher here, and there's no intrinsic reason we couldn't have high streets like the french if we wanted (I should note it's not just Lille - Provence and Toulouse have also felt incredibly affluent and varied compared to rich places in the UK - they also all have great tram systems that make the cities a breeze to travel through.)

    In so many areas (housing, transport, energy, commercial) we'd do very well to just copy France.
    But then we’d have to live with knowing we’d copied the French. And that’s unthinkable.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,447

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Latest Tory unfunded* bung to the well off.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/06/tories-pledge-to-raise-pay-threshold-for-child-benefit-charge

    * To be paid for by cracking down on tax avoidance.
    Again.

    I look forward to the IFS analysis of the Tory manifesto.
    The Tory approaches seems to be following the Corbyn manifesto of 2019. Throw loads of red meat towards the base, but a) lots of rubbish policies crowding out the ones that individually perhaps are ok, b) but in the totality, everybody with half a brain goes hold on it just isn't possible to do that.

    The triple lock++ for oldies, the new triple lock, no tax rises, I presume IHT abolished with be in there.
    They’re trying to out-Reform Reform, and that’s going to be impossible now. Because Farage is a far more skilled salesman than Sunak. He has his own particular type of baggage, but he’s not (thank god, many of us would say) ever had to run anything, so he’s a fresh slate in that respect.

    The more I look at this the more I think the Tories are screwed and we’re on course for a significant realignment on the right. I thought it would come in the next parliament, but I am starting to think it might actually have arrived early.
    There is a general lack of inventive policy across the board. Even Labour flagship stuff like a wealth fund is actually just rehashed centralised PFI when you look at it.
    The truth is that at the present time and with our demographics, there is very little scope for major spending. Particularly so when we are taxed at a post war record, and at a rate set to increase for another 4 years.
    Which is why I think Labour will have to go big on construction - all those extra jobs, all the VAT on materials, increased council tax as 4 & 5 bed flatshares split into more homes and stamp duty from increased sales. The cost to the exchequer is practically zero, it's popular and the people it annoys were never going to vote for them anyway.
    It's a very good point about building generating a lot of income for both local and national government.

    It's a no-brainer of a policy.
    Fingers crossed they adopt it, but it's too much of an open goal not to, especially with the likely large majority and large number of young candidates selected by Labour.

    I've just covered the immediate effects - renters (who are solidly Labour) may see reductions in rent - which will bolster support for Labour (and increase alcohol duty receipts...) and councils need to pay less in housing benefit are two other big benefits.
    It can be tricky, but making it attractive to redevelop high street buildings into residential seems like one approach. The high street is never coming back the way it was, you can throw all the money you like but internet shopping is here to stay and young people want to live in town so they can socialise within walking distance.
    It's already relatively easy and up until September I would have agreed with you. Then I went to Lille. Because buildings are so much cheaper over there (and denser...) commercial properties are much cheaper to rent. The number of niche stores open 4 days a week was ridiculous, probably 80% of those stores would have been DOA in the UK.
    Isn't the problem in the UK not just the actual rent, but the rateable values of the property leads to very high taxes for luxury of just being a shop.
    Potentially - all I know is that rents/cost of running a shop are much higher here, and there's no intrinsic reason we couldn't have high streets like the french if we wanted (I should note it's not just Lille - Provence and Toulouse have also felt incredibly affluent and varied compared to rich places in the UK - they also all have great tram systems that make the cities a breeze to travel through.)

    In so many areas (housing, transport, energy, commercial) we'd do very well to just copy France.
    Not sure we want to follow the French approach to suburbs....also large renter population in major cities as a small number of people own all the buildings and never sell. The flipside is better renter rights, but you still can't buy even if you want. That is why you get the slightly weird situation of the middle class French owning their holiday home, but not their actual primary home.
    He’s right about the shopping in French towns. Vastly superior to that here. Many more interesting shops (central London the only real exception to the rule).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak is done.

    It is finally over.


    BBC Newsnight
    @BBCNewsnight
    “I think it’s political malpractice of the highest order if Rishi Sunak absented himself for an election interview… it’s not the right thing to do at a fundamental level.”

    Conservative commentator Tim Montgomerie on reports as to why the PM left D-Day event early.

    Big news today, forgotten in 48 hours' time. The reality of politics.
    When your pitch is to the GB New / Reform crowd and you have a big policy of getting the little shits to do national service...and Big Nige has just returned who will wrap himself in the Union Jack at every occasion...I think its far worse than dropping a bollock about how much Peleton you do. Farage isn't going to let him get away with it and I don't think any of the media are fans of Sunak.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    Tory MPs struggling to comprehend what Sunak has done tonight. There’s an explosion coming.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,447
    biggles said:

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Latest Tory unfunded* bung to the well off.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/06/tories-pledge-to-raise-pay-threshold-for-child-benefit-charge

    * To be paid for by cracking down on tax avoidance.
    Again.

    I look forward to the IFS analysis of the Tory manifesto.
    The Tory approaches seems to be following the Corbyn manifesto of 2019. Throw loads of red meat towards the base, but a) lots of rubbish policies crowding out the ones that individually perhaps are ok, b) but in the totality, everybody with half a brain goes hold on it just isn't possible to do that.

    The triple lock++ for oldies, the new triple lock, no tax rises, I presume IHT abolished with be in there.
    They’re trying to out-Reform Reform, and that’s going to be impossible now. Because Farage is a far more skilled salesman than Sunak. He has his own particular type of baggage, but he’s not (thank god, many of us would say) ever had to run anything, so he’s a fresh slate in that respect.

    The more I look at this the more I think the Tories are screwed and we’re on course for a significant realignment on the right. I thought it would come in the next parliament, but I am starting to think it might actually have arrived early.
    There is a general lack of inventive policy across the board. Even Labour flagship stuff like a wealth fund is actually just rehashed centralised PFI when you look at it.
    The truth is that at the present time and with our demographics, there is very little scope for major spending. Particularly so when we are taxed at a post war record, and at a rate set to increase for another 4 years.
    Which is why I think Labour will have to go big on construction - all those extra jobs, all the VAT on materials, increased council tax as 4 & 5 bed flatshares split into more homes and stamp duty from increased sales. The cost to the exchequer is practically zero, it's popular and the people it annoys were never going to vote for them anyway.
    It's a very good point about building generating a lot of income for both local and national government.

    It's a no-brainer of a policy.
    Fingers crossed they adopt it, but it's too much of an open goal not to, especially with the likely large majority and large number of young candidates selected by Labour.

    I've just covered the immediate effects - renters (who are solidly Labour) may see reductions in rent - which will bolster support for Labour (and increase alcohol duty receipts...) and councils need to pay less in housing benefit are two other big benefits.
    It can be tricky, but making it attractive to redevelop high street buildings into residential seems like one approach. The high street is never coming back the way it was, you can throw all the money you like but internet shopping is here to stay and young people want to live in town so they can socialise within walking distance.
    It's already relatively easy and up until September I would have agreed with you. Then I went to Lille. Because buildings are so much cheaper over there (and denser...) commercial properties are much cheaper to rent. The number of niche stores open 4 days a week was ridiculous, probably 80% of those stores would have been DOA in the UK.
    Isn't the problem in the UK not just the actual rent, but the rateable values of the property leads to very high taxes for luxury of just being a shop.
    Potentially - all I know is that rents/cost of running a shop are much higher here, and there's no intrinsic reason we couldn't have high streets like the french if we wanted (I should note it's not just Lille - Provence and Toulouse have also felt incredibly affluent and varied compared to rich places in the UK - they also all have great tram systems that make the cities a breeze to travel through.)

    In so many areas (housing, transport, energy, commercial) we'd do very well to just copy France.
    But then we’d have to live with knowing we’d copied the French. And that’s unthinkable.
    Indeed why we would wish for French standards of in-town shopping, roads, and public realm is a real mystery
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,351
    Chameleon said:

    Farage is going to be like an XL bully with an unattended child when it comes to the D-Day stuff tomorrow.

    I predict he won't make that much of it. He knows harping on about the same subject bores voters.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449

    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak is done.

    It is finally over.


    BBC Newsnight
    @BBCNewsnight
    “I think it’s political malpractice of the highest order if Rishi Sunak absented himself for an election interview… it’s not the right thing to do at a fundamental level.”

    Conservative commentator Tim Montgomerie on reports as to why the PM left D-Day event early.

    Big news today, forgotten in 48 hours' time. The reality of politics.
    When your pitch is to the GB New / Reform crowd and you have a big policy of getting the little shits to do national service...and Big Nige has just returned who will wrap himself in the Union Jack at every occasion...I think its far worse than dropping a bollock about how much Peleton you do. Farage isn't going to let him get away with it and I don't think any of the media are fans of Sunak.
    He is so fucked over this it is off the scale.

    Sunak is done. This is over.

    Even the Express will have to cover this tomorrow.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Latest Tory unfunded* bung to the well off.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/06/tories-pledge-to-raise-pay-threshold-for-child-benefit-charge

    * To be paid for by cracking down on tax avoidance.
    Again.

    I look forward to the IFS analysis of the Tory manifesto.
    The Tory approaches seems to be following the Corbyn manifesto of 2019. Throw loads of red meat towards the base, but a) lots of rubbish policies crowding out the ones that individually perhaps are ok, b) but in the totality, everybody with half a brain goes hold on it just isn't possible to do that.

    The triple lock++ for oldies, the new triple lock, no tax rises, I presume IHT abolished with be in there.
    They’re trying to out-Reform Reform, and that’s going to be impossible now. Because Farage is a far more skilled salesman than Sunak. He has his own particular type of baggage, but he’s not (thank god, many of us would say) ever had to run anything, so he’s a fresh slate in that respect.

    The more I look at this the more I think the Tories are screwed and we’re on course for a significant realignment on the right. I thought it would come in the next parliament, but I am starting to think it might actually have arrived early.
    There is a general lack of inventive policy across the board. Even Labour flagship stuff like a wealth fund is actually just rehashed centralised PFI when you look at it.
    The truth is that at the present time and with our demographics, there is very little scope for major spending. Particularly so when we are taxed at a post war record, and at a rate set to increase for another 4 years.
    Which is why I think Labour will have to go big on construction - all those extra jobs, all the VAT on materials, increased council tax as 4 & 5 bed flatshares split into more homes and stamp duty from increased sales. The cost to the exchequer is practically zero, it's popular and the people it annoys were never going to vote for them anyway.
    It's a very good point about building generating a lot of income for both local and national government.

    It's a no-brainer of a policy.
    Fingers crossed they adopt it, but it's too much of an open goal not to, especially with the likely large majority and large number of young candidates selected by Labour.

    I've just covered the immediate effects - renters (who are solidly Labour) may see reductions in rent - which will bolster support for Labour (and increase alcohol duty receipts...) and councils need to pay less in housing benefit are two other big benefits.
    It can be tricky, but making it attractive to redevelop high street buildings into residential seems like one approach. The high street is never coming back the way it was, you can throw all the money you like but internet shopping is here to stay and young people want to live in town so they can socialise within walking distance.
    It's already relatively easy and up until September I would have agreed with you. Then I went to Lille. Because buildings are so much cheaper over there (and denser...) commercial properties are much cheaper to rent. The number of niche stores open 4 days a week was ridiculous, probably 80% of those stores would have been DOA in the UK.
    Isn't the problem in the UK not just the actual rent, but the rateable values of the property leads to very high taxes for luxury of just being a shop.
    Potentially - all I know is that rents/cost of running a shop are much higher here, and there's no intrinsic reason we couldn't have high streets like the french if we wanted (I should note it's not just Lille - Provence and Toulouse have also felt incredibly affluent and varied compared to rich places in the UK - they also all have great tram systems that make the cities a breeze to travel through.)

    In so many areas (housing, transport, energy, commercial) we'd do very well to just copy France.
    Not sure we want to follow the French approach to suburbs....also large renter population in major cities as a small number of people own all the buildings and never sell. The flipside is better renter rights, but you still can't buy even if you want. That is why you get the slightly weird situation of the middle class French owning their holiday home, but not their actual primary home.
    He’s right about the shopping in French towns. Vastly superior to that here. Many more interesting shops (central London the only real exception to the rule).
    So I guess we have to ask the question why. Is it the rent, the rates, something else. Because government have thrown money at supporting high streets and it does nothing. We just end up with loads of coffee shops and Spoons.

    I was in Bristol a few weeks ago and that is historically much more independent shop minded (if I remember correctly at one point they had the Bristol pound initiate) and loads and loads of boarded up shops or the dodgy here today gone tomorrow ones.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,437

    Sunak is done.

    It is finally over.


    BBC Newsnight
    @BBCNewsnight
    “I think it’s political malpractice of the highest order if Rishi Sunak absented himself for an election interview… it’s not the right thing to do at a fundamental level.”

    Conservative commentator Tim Montgomerie on reports as to why the PM left D-Day event early.

    Perhaps he got wind that he was going to be kicked out by the 'bastards' and thus decided crash and burn the whole party.

    Perhaps he's got several moles advising him and he's too daft to see it.


    Either of these are surely a better explanation than him thinking that doing an interview with sodding ITV was a better use of his time than looking like an actual PM on Omaha beach.


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,600

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    Tory MPs struggling to comprehend what Sunak has done tonight. There’s an explosion coming.

    Apparently Sunak also took his poppy off for the ITV interview.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunak is done.

    It is finally over.


    BBC Newsnight
    @BBCNewsnight
    “I think it’s political malpractice of the highest order if Rishi Sunak absented himself for an election interview… it’s not the right thing to do at a fundamental level.”

    Conservative commentator Tim Montgomerie on reports as to why the PM left D-Day event early.

    Big news today, forgotten in 48 hours' time. The reality of politics.
    I dont think so. The whole weekend will be dominated by this fucker's behaviour.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    So this week's going well. The Speccie is calling Sunak a liar, and the founder of con home sounded like he wanted to throttle Sunak with his bare hands on newsnight.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    Chameleon said:

    Farage is going to be like an XL bully with an unattended child when it comes to the D-Day stuff tomorrow.

    Yep.

    Cross-over is now looming. imho.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    Tory MPs struggling to comprehend what Sunak has done tonight. There’s an explosion coming.

    Apparently Sunak also took his poppy off for the ITV interview.
    Are we sure he isn't Jeremy Corbyn in disguise?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    5m
    It’s completely unfathomable as to why any British Prime Minister would skip the 80th anniversary of D Day. It’s the job.

    If a Labour Prime Minister had done such a thing, they would be shamed for the rest of their political career.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    ToryJim said:

    The thing about Sunak's £2k Labour tax allegation is this, and I don't think it's been mentioned enough. The 'lie' is that Sunak intended, during the debate, for everybody to think Labour's alleged tax hike would be £2k per year, rather than £500 a year - i.e. over four years. And the Tories, including Hunt, continue to frame it as £2k rather than £500. £10 a week isn't a great deal; £40 a week is.

    Regardless of the fact that the figure is pure conjecture anyway (I expect Labour to raise taxes, obviously), it's this sleight of hand that makes it a 'lie'.

    True, however governments do this all the time especially in elections. New Labour often rolled multi year spending commitments up to make them seem more impressive. You get away with it when you’re in the ascendancy and not so much when not. It isn’t so much an issue because it’s dishonest, though it is, it’s an issue because the Tories are in trouble.
    Yes, but Labour is lying about tax. Anyone with half a brain knows they are. They will put them up and not just on "the rich". They are too much in hock to the public sector unions not to need the money to pay for way above inflation pay increases for the non-productive sector that makes up most of their base.
    A sector where pay rises have been so bad that workers now get 30% less compared than private sextor works when you compare 2010 to now.

    No wonder anyone who could get a job in the private sector left leaving just the public spirited and lazy workers behind
    Include their pensions, dope. The public sector still gets an easy ride in most cases. Many people in the private sector lost their jobs in Covid and businesses went bust while public sector unions were still bleating about how they deserved more pay.
    Sorry, because I suspect we're often reading from the same book, but you're wrong on this one. Public sector pay and conditions have got to a point that organisations simply can't get the staff.

    Schools need about 30000 new teachers entering training a year. Currently, we're running at about two-thirds of that;

    https://twitter.com/JackWorthNFER/status/1798356684647387181

    You may believe that public sector workers ought to be satisfied with their current packages. You may even be objectively correct. But the jobs market says otherwise, and The Lady had something to say about the buckability of the market.
    While undoubtedly pay is important, equally so are other aspects of working conditions. People want to do a good job and it is very stressful and demoralising to do so with inadequate training, in decrepit buildings, swamped with demands and abused by the government.
    The young people coming in are also weighed down with huge student loan debt, one of my recent ECTs had about 60k+ (was from a low income family, so had to borrow the lot). She was brilliant in the classroom. She leaves teaching this summer after just three years in post.
    For the millionth time, student loan debt is not really debt, its a graduate tax. Unless you are going to go and earn a shit tonne of money within a few years of leaving uni, you are on the graduate tax plan for the rest of your working life regardless of if it was £40k,50k,60k,100k etc. It literally makes bugger all difference if you are only ever going earn in the £10k's how much that the number of the owned column is.

    And if you do earn a shit tonne, you are paying loads of extra tax compared to those on normal salaries.
    But only if you took on that debt in the first place.

    It's a tax - but only on those who didn't have parents rich enough to pay for your degree. Like private schools and housing, it's another way to entrench intergenerational inequality.
    Student loan debt repayments are more like a graduate income tax which is highly selective by age, structured so as to clobber younger graduates and let off older graduates scot free.

    I'm a graduate of that fortunate generation born in 1960 who never had a loan. So I've never paid graduate income tax. In fact I was paid to go to university because I received "graduate benefit" (i.e. a maintenance grant) despite my parents being reasonably well off.

    By contrast, nearly all younger graduates will pay graduate income tax of 9% of their income for 30 years (and for recent students 40 years). Since tuition fees were introduced their debts have become are huge and are at such usurious rates that they will grow rather than shrink until they are written off.

  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    Tory MPs struggling to comprehend what Sunak has done tonight. There’s an explosion coming.

    Apparently Sunak also took his poppy off for the ITV interview.
    Do you think Labour have planted someone on the inside of the Tory campaign advising this stuff, or is Sunak simply dim and awful?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Chameleon said:

    So this week's going well. The Speccie is calling Sunak a liar, and the founder of con home sounded like he wanted to throttle Sunak with his bare hands on newsnight.

    Gneuine question, can he be removed from the Tory leadership before the election? We're heading that way at a rate of knots.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449

    Sophie Heawood
    @heawood
    ·
    55m
    So basically Rishi Sunak could have stayed at the D Day military commemorations but he left early because a full day of National Service is too much for the man launching a year of it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6

    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    5m
    It’s completely unfathomable as to why any British Prime Minister would skip the 80th anniversary of D Day. It’s the job.

    If a Labour Prime Minister had done such a thing, they would be shamed for the rest of their political career.

    That is said as if Sunak isn't / won't he. He is already and it will gain more steam tomorrow.

    There was a big concert for this anniversary at the Royal Albert Hall and I don't think he was at that. So he can't even claim that as an excuse.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,272
    Chameleon said:

    Sunak is done.

    It is finally over.


    BBC Newsnight
    @BBCNewsnight
    “I think it’s political malpractice of the highest order if Rishi Sunak absented himself for an election interview… it’s not the right thing to do at a fundamental level.”

    Conservative commentator Tim Montgomerie on reports as to why the PM left D-Day event early.

    Hodges (as ever) reporting an apocalyptic mood.

    Can they sack him before the election?
    If he quits during the campaign, IIRC, there is a quick one-week leadership election. The banter scenario, certainly.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,594
    Jonathan said:

    Bizarre that Sunak missed an opportunity to look prime ministerial, hang with world leaders and rise above the election.

    He just can’t do politics.

    He's never had to 'do' politics. Distorted CCHQ shortlists and safe seats do not produce competent politicians.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    ToryJim said:

    The thing about Sunak's £2k Labour tax allegation is this, and I don't think it's been mentioned enough. The 'lie' is that Sunak intended, during the debate, for everybody to think Labour's alleged tax hike would be £2k per year, rather than £500 a year - i.e. over four years. And the Tories, including Hunt, continue to frame it as £2k rather than £500. £10 a week isn't a great deal; £40 a week is.

    Regardless of the fact that the figure is pure conjecture anyway (I expect Labour to raise taxes, obviously), it's this sleight of hand that makes it a 'lie'.

    True, however governments do this all the time especially in elections. New Labour often rolled multi year spending commitments up to make them seem more impressive. You get away with it when you’re in the ascendancy and not so much when not. It isn’t so much an issue because it’s dishonest, though it is, it’s an issue because the Tories are in trouble.
    Yes, but Labour is lying about tax. Anyone with half a brain knows they are. They will put them up and not just on "the rich". They are too much in hock to the public sector unions not to need the money to pay for way above inflation pay increases for the non-productive sector that makes up most of their base.
    A sector where pay rises have been so bad that workers now get 30% less compared than private sextor works when you compare 2010 to now.

    No wonder anyone who could get a job in the private sector left leaving just the public spirited and lazy workers behind
    Include their pensions, dope. The public sector still gets an easy ride in most cases. Many people in the private sector lost their jobs in Covid and businesses went bust while public sector unions were still bleating about how they deserved more pay.
    Sorry, because I suspect we're often reading from the same book, but you're wrong on this one. Public sector pay and conditions have got to a point that organisations simply can't get the staff.

    Schools need about 30000 new teachers entering training a year. Currently, we're running at about two-thirds of that;

    https://twitter.com/JackWorthNFER/status/1798356684647387181

    You may believe that public sector workers ought to be satisfied with their current packages. You may even be objectively correct. But the jobs market says otherwise, and The Lady had something to say about the buckability of the market.
    While undoubtedly pay is important, equally so are other aspects of working conditions. People want to do a good job and it is very stressful and demoralising to do so with inadequate training, in decrepit buildings, swamped with demands and abused by the government.
    The young people coming in are also weighed down with huge student loan debt, one of my recent ECTs had about 60k+ (was from a low income family, so had to borrow the lot). She was brilliant in the classroom. She leaves teaching this summer after just three years in post.
    For the millionth time, student loan debt is not really debt, its a graduate tax. Unless you are going to go and earn a shit tonne of money within a few years of leaving uni, you are on the graduate tax plan for the rest of your working life regardless of if it was £40k,50k,60k,100k etc. It literally makes bugger all difference if you are only ever going earn in the £10k's how much that the number of the owned column is.

    And if you do earn a shit tonne, you are paying loads of extra tax compared to those on normal salaries.
    But only if you took on that debt in the first place.

    It's a tax - but only on those who didn't have parents rich enough to pay for your degree. Like private schools and housing, it's another way to entrench intergenerational inequality.
    Student loan debt repayments are more like a graduate income tax which is highly selective by age, structured so as to clobber younger graduates and let off older graduates scot free.

    I'm a graduate of that fortunate generation born in 1960 who never had a loan. So I've never paid graduate income tax. In fact I was paid to go to university because I received "graduate benefit" (i.e. a maintenance grant) despite my parents being reasonably well off.

    By contrast, nearly all younger graduates will pay graduate income tax of 9% of their income for 30 years (and for recent students 40 years). Since tuition fees were introduced their debts have become are huge and are at such usurious rates that they will grow rather than shrink until they are written off.

    The difference is when you went to university only ~15% of 18 year olds went.

    We can go back to that and pay people to go or we have to find huge amounts of money for 50% to go. This is why the likes of Starmer drop the proposal as soon as they take a little bit of a look at the cost.

    It is still a ticking time bomb as they require selling the debt off, as the hot potato of the fact 50% don't pay it off in full.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,856
    edited June 6
    biggles said:

    MattW said:

    biggles said:

    MattW said:

    First data coming in about the likely impact of the Welsh 20mph speed limit in residential areas.

    The casualties on 20 and 30mph roads down by 29%. Difficult to split down as so many have changed category between the two. Also worth noting that that does not identify categories of casualty.

    It's nice to have some numbers during the Election campaign, though only one quarter's worth.

    The number of people injured on 20 and 30mph roads in Wales fell by almost a third in the final quarter of last year, new data published by the Welsh government shows.

    The figures show there were 463 casualties on such roads between October and December, down from 681 in the same period a year earlier.

    The Welsh Labour government has credited the introduction of default 20mph default speed limits, which took effect last September, but Conservatives said more data was needed. Plaid Cymru, which supported the policy, said the figures were "encouraging".

    Labour has since committed to a review of the new law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjee04vlqglo


    I’m not sure about that as a success metric.

    If we limited cars to 5mph on all roads, fatalities would drop to near zero. We don’t do that, because we balance the need to move around more quickly, and so we find a balance - in the past set to about 30mph.

    The only meaningful figure here would be deaths vs productivity/embuggerance, and there’s no “right” answer.
    I agree that reduction to 5mph is a red herring by reductio ad adsurbam. No one is proposing that, and it's really a distraction from the serious argument you suggest - the question is choosing a balance.

    Is 20mph is a better balance than 30mph, and where and how extensively should it be used?

    I suggest that 30 years of experience with hundreds of 20mph schemes in the UK, and extensive experience abroad, shows that it is a better balance for extensive use in urban environments - such as residential and shopping areas.

    On speed of moving around, we need data. I'm sure that will become available.

    There are also a mass of subjective factors, such as pleasantness of environment for us all to live in, noise, systematic safety (ie the system we use for H&S applied to the road / street environment) and so on.
    8< snip.

    We pick a level of road deaths people will tolerate, if they can get from A to B quickly, and set the other conditions accordingly.
    AFAICS we don't do that.

    How many Transport Ministers have you ever heard say how many road deaths are tolerable, and that they will accept that level?

    Even Ministers who take measures that will increase KSIs (such as Mark Harper) or fail to take measures that will reduce them (also Mark Harper) put up a rhetoric around safety being the first priority.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    edited June 6
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    So this week's going well. The Speccie is calling Sunak a liar, and the founder of con home sounded like he wanted to throttle Sunak with his bare hands on newsnight.

    Gneuine question, can he be removed from the Tory leadership before the election? We're heading that way at a rate of knots.
    I must say, my defence of him missing it earlier was predicated on it not being for idiotic reasons.
    As for replacing.... perhaps we will hear he has 'taken ill' and Ms P Mordaunt will run out the campaign
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    Tory MPs struggling to comprehend what Sunak has done tonight. There’s an explosion coming.

    Apparently Sunak also took his poppy off for the ITV interview.
    Do you think Labour have planted someone on the inside of the Tory campaign advising this stuff, or is Sunak simply dim and awful?
    Lets say for shits and giggles there is a Labour supporter causes trouble. I mean literally how much of an beeepppp do you have to be to think hmm its a big important national day, all those world leaders are here, no must go now. Maybe he literally has no ability to stand up to anybody and say I don't care if ITV want an interview, I need to stay for 2 more hours.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    So this week's going well. The Speccie is calling Sunak a liar, and the founder of con home sounded like he wanted to throttle Sunak with his bare hands on newsnight.

    Gneuine question, can he be removed from the Tory leadership before the election? We're heading that way at a rate of knots.
    No idea what the 1922 rules are when parliament isn't sitting and no one is an actual MP. Very very good constitutional question.

    Whatever, he remains PM.

    He is only not PM if he successfully resigns or is fired by the King.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    Tory MPs struggling to comprehend what Sunak has done tonight. There’s an explosion coming.

    Apparently Sunak also took his poppy off for the ITV interview.
    Do you think Labour have planted someone on the inside of the Tory campaign advising this stuff, or is Sunak simply dim and awful?
    Presume the poppy came off because he was told the interview was to be broadcast next thursday.

    Why the hell is he doing it now then?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6
    MattW said:

    biggles said:

    MattW said:

    biggles said:

    MattW said:

    First data coming in about the likely impact of the Welsh 20mph speed limit in residential areas.

    The casualties on 20 and 30mph roads down by 29%. Difficult to split down as so many have changed category between the two. Also worth noting that that does not identify categories of casualty.

    It's nice to have some numbers during the Election campaign, though only one quarter's worth.

    The number of people injured on 20 and 30mph roads in Wales fell by almost a third in the final quarter of last year, new data published by the Welsh government shows.

    The figures show there were 463 casualties on such roads between October and December, down from 681 in the same period a year earlier.

    The Welsh Labour government has credited the introduction of default 20mph default speed limits, which took effect last September, but Conservatives said more data was needed. Plaid Cymru, which supported the policy, said the figures were "encouraging".

    Labour has since committed to a review of the new law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjee04vlqglo


    I’m not sure about that as a success metric.

    If we limited cars to 5mph on all roads, fatalities would drop to near zero. We don’t do that, because we balance the need to move around more quickly, and so we find a balance - in the past set to about 30mph.

    The only meaningful figure here would be deaths vs productivity/embuggerance, and there’s no “right” answer.
    I agree that reduction to 5mph is a red herring by reductio ad adsurbam. No one is proposing that, and it's really a distraction from the serious argument you suggest - the question is choosing a balance.

    Is 20mph is a better balance than 30mph, and where and how extensively should it be used?

    I suggest that 30 years of experience with hundreds of 20mph schemes in the UK, and extensive experience abroad, shows that it is a better balance for extensive use in urban environments - such as residential and shopping areas.

    On speed of moving around, we need data. I'm sure that will become available.

    There are also a mass of subjective factors, such as pleasantness of environment for us all to live in, noise, systematic safety (ie the system we use for H&S applied to the road / street environment) and so on.
    8< snip.

    We pick a level of road deaths people will tolerate, if they can get from A to B quickly, and set the other conditions accordingly.
    AFAICS we don't do that.

    How many Transport Ministers have you ever heard say how many road deaths are tolerable, and that they will accept that level?

    Even Ministers who take measures that will increase KSIs (such as Mark Harper) or fail to take measures that will reduce them (also Mark Harper) put up a rhetoric around safety being the first priority.
    Its why 80mph on the motorway idea never gets implemented. Politicians with no bollocks. I think a lot of people would probably be ok with 20mph in residential and 80mph on the motorway. Instead the idiots like Drakeford did 20mph everywhere he could and 50mph on some parts of the motorway.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    I think we can stop worrying about Diane Abbot and the mythical £2K tax bollocks making a dent on this campaign now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449

    James Chapman
    @jameschappers
    ·
    1h
    The PM is the PM. His team can command a TV crew interviewing him to be at whatever location they see fit at whatever time. Quitting D-Day commemorations early leaving David Cameron in charge to record an ITV interview not out till next week makes no sense. A terrible own goal.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,437

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    Tory MPs struggling to comprehend what Sunak has done tonight. There’s an explosion coming.

    Apparently Sunak also took his poppy off for the ITV interview.
    Do you think Labour have planted someone on the inside of the Tory campaign advising this stuff, or is Sunak simply dim and awful?
    Lets say for shits and giggles there is a Labour supporter causes trouble. I mean literally how much of an beeepppp do you have to be to think hmm its a big important national day, all those world leaders are here, no must go now. Maybe he literally has no ability to stand up to anybody and say I don't care if ITV want an interview, I need to stay for 2 more hours.
    Outside of an extreme domestic emergency (personal or country), it is literally unfathomable.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    Keiran Pedley
    @keiranpedley
    ·
    53m
    Can’t imagine Penny Mordaunt is thrilled at going on stage vs. Nigel Farage tomorrow night to defend the PM leaving D Day commemorations to do an interview with ITV. Not the ideal setup!
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    Tory MPs struggling to comprehend what Sunak has done tonight. There’s an explosion coming.

    Apparently Sunak also took his poppy off for the ITV interview.
    Do you think Labour have planted someone on the inside of the Tory campaign advising this stuff, or is Sunak simply dim and awful?
    Lets say for shits and giggles there is a Labour supporter causes trouble. I mean literally how much of an beeepppp do you have to be to think hmm its a big important national day, all those world leaders are here, no must go now. Maybe he literally has no ability to stand up to anybody and say I don't care if ITV want an interview, I need to stay for 2 more hours.
    It is completely unfathomable, who would make such a poor decision?

    You're there with all the major world leaders, monarchs, veterans, commemorating the start of the liberation of occupied France. You then make your excuses and leave, so you can chat to some bloke from ITV about how you aren't a liar. Remembering to take your poppy off, naturally.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6

    I think we can stop worrying about Diane Abbot and the mythical £2K tax bollocks making a dent on this campaign now.

    Every time you think the Tory campaign has hit rock bottom, they find a way to go worse. Making the announcement in the rain seems absolute tiny mistake in comparison.

    Has there been a worse Tory / Labour campaign in modern history? And we thought awful Elvis tribute act was embarrassingly shit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,600
    Front page of the Mirror:

    image
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    Tory MPs struggling to comprehend what Sunak has done tonight. There’s an explosion coming.

    Apparently Sunak also took his poppy off for the ITV interview.
    Do you think Labour have planted someone on the inside of the Tory campaign advising this stuff, or is Sunak simply dim and awful?
    Lets say for shits and giggles there is a Labour supporter causes trouble. I mean literally how much of an beeepppp do you have to be to think hmm its a big important national day, all those world leaders are here, no must go now. Maybe he literally has no ability to stand up to anybody and say I don't care if ITV want an interview, I need to stay for 2 more hours.
    It is completely unfathomable, who would make such a poor decision?

    You're there with all the major world leaders, monarchs, veterans, commemorating the start of the liberation of occupied France. You then make your excuses and leave, so you can chat to some bloke from ITV about how you aren't a liar. Remembering to take your poppy off, naturally.
    It is so mind bending. The thing is I thought Sunak was a poor leader, over promoted from middle management, poor at interacting with people not like him and somewhat out of touch with concerns of some of society, but this is like not standing for the national anthem, you don't need to be told unless you are 5 years old.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    I'm genuinely aghast. I can't even begin to fathom what idiocy led to this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    Good job for Sunak that Starmer didn't agree to those weekly debates...
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,987
    Lab hold in Telford, recount in Torbay.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,854

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    Tory MPs struggling to comprehend what Sunak has done tonight. There’s an explosion coming.

    Apparently Sunak also took his poppy off for the ITV interview.
    Do you think Labour have planted someone on the inside of the Tory campaign advising this stuff, or is Sunak simply dim and awful?
    Lets say for shits and giggles there is a Labour supporter causes trouble. I mean literally how much of an beeepppp do you have to be to think hmm its a big important national day, all those world leaders are here, no must go now. Maybe he literally has no ability to stand up to anybody and say I don't care if ITV want an interview, I need to stay for 2 more hours.
    It is completely unfathomable, who would make such a poor decision?

    You're there with all the major world leaders, monarchs, veterans, commemorating the start of the liberation of occupied France. You then make your excuses and leave, so you can chat to some bloke from ITV about how you aren't a liar. Remembering to take your poppy off, naturally.
    It is so mind bending. The thing is I thought Sunak was a poor leader, over promoted from middle management and somewhat out of touch with concerns of some of society, but this is like not standing for the national anthem, you don't need to be told unless you are 5 years old.
    Starmer needs to use this on Wednesday in the Sky debate, it will be absolute poison to viewers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    edited June 6

    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    5m
    It’s completely unfathomable as to why any British Prime Minister would skip the 80th anniversary of D Day. It’s the job.

    If a Labour Prime Minister had done such a thing, they would be shamed for the rest of their political career.

    He DID NOT skip the 80th anniversary of D Day, he was there yesterday at Southsea and today in Normandy (which was primarily for heads of state and Rishi is not the King).

    The same would apply to a Labour PM. Every other party leader is doing one of these ITV interviews, the main events in Normandy were over when Sunak recorded it. This story is utter rubbish and barrel scraping from Labour and Farage exploiting D Day for their party political ends.

    Fortunately none of the mainstream media have it in their headlines and beyond the Westminster bubble nobody is interested
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,437

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    Tory MPs struggling to comprehend what Sunak has done tonight. There’s an explosion coming.

    Apparently Sunak also took his poppy off for the ITV interview.
    Do you think Labour have planted someone on the inside of the Tory campaign advising this stuff, or is Sunak simply dim and awful?
    Lets say for shits and giggles there is a Labour supporter causes trouble. I mean literally how much of an beeepppp do you have to be to think hmm its a big important national day, all those world leaders are here, no must go now. Maybe he literally has no ability to stand up to anybody and say I don't care if ITV want an interview, I need to stay for 2 more hours.
    It is completely unfathomable, who would make such a poor decision?

    You're there with all the major world leaders, monarchs, veterans, commemorating the start of the liberation of occupied France. You then make your excuses and leave, so you can chat to some bloke from ITV about how you aren't a liar. Remembering to take your poppy off, naturally.
    It is so mind bending. The thing is I thought Sunak was a poor leader, over promoted from middle management, poor at interacting with people not like him and somewhat out of touch with concerns of some of society, but this is like not standing for the national anthem, you don't need to be told unless you are 5 years old.
    Send for the men in grey suits white coats.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    Tory MPs struggling to comprehend what Sunak has done tonight. There’s an explosion coming.

    Apparently Sunak also took his poppy off for the ITV interview.
    Do you think Labour have planted someone on the inside of the Tory campaign advising this stuff, or is Sunak simply dim and awful?
    Lets say for shits and giggles there is a Labour supporter causes trouble. I mean literally how much of an beeepppp do you have to be to think hmm its a big important national day, all those world leaders are here, no must go now. Maybe he literally has no ability to stand up to anybody and say I don't care if ITV want an interview, I need to stay for 2 more hours.
    It is completely unfathomable, who would make such a poor decision?

    You're there with all the major world leaders, monarchs, veterans, commemorating the start of the liberation of occupied France. You then make your excuses and leave, so you can chat to some bloke from ITV about how you aren't a liar. Remembering to take your poppy off, naturally.
    It is so mind bending. The thing is I thought Sunak was a poor leader, over promoted from middle management, poor at interacting with people not like him and somewhat out of touch with concerns of some of society, but this is like not standing for the national anthem, you don't need to be told unless you are 5 years old.
    maybe it is just overly raw at the moment, but it feels like the worst mistake a running campaigning PM has ever made given he spent all of last weekend wittering on about national service and dissolute youth and pride and all the rest.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,600

    Good job for Sunak that Starmer didn't agree to those weekly debates...

    "In the words of the person your party chose over you: That. Is. A. Disgrace."
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Gonna have to hold up my hands and say i was wrong. I thought there may be overreaction but now we know it was apparently just to do a pre recorded interview..... that could be done any time.
    Its astonishing and becoming more so as the clock ticks on tonight.
    He needs to get his arse in front of the cameras to explain and if there is no explanation, apologise. Profusely.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449

    I think we can stop worrying about Diane Abbot and the mythical £2K tax bollocks making a dent on this campaign now.

    Every time you think the Tory campaign has hit rock bottom, they find a way to go worse. Making the announcement in the rain seems absolute tiny mistake in comparison.

    Has there been a worse Tory / Labour campaign in modern history? And we thought awful Elvis tribute act was embarrassingly shit.
    May's 2017 campaign is now seen in a new light.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    Paul McNamara
    @PGMcNamara
    ·
    29m
    Anger.

    So much anger from Tory MPs fighting for their careers tonight.

    Many of them are NOT happy about this interview and its timing...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,351
    HYUFD said:

    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    5m
    It’s completely unfathomable as to why any British Prime Minister would skip the 80th anniversary of D Day. It’s the job.

    If a Labour Prime Minister had done such a thing, they would be shamed for the rest of their political career.

    He DID NOT skip the 80th anniversary of D Day, he was there yesterday at Southsea and today in Normandy (which was primarily for heads of state and Rishi is not the King).

    The same would apply to a Labour PM. Every other party leader is doing one of these ITV interviews, the main events in Normandy were over when Sunak recorded it. This story is utter rubbish and barrel scraping from Labour and Farage exploiting D Day for their party political ends.

    Fortunately none of the mainstream media have it in their headlines and beyond the Westminster bubble nobody is interested
    I agree. It'll be forgotten pretty soon when the next big thing in the election happens, whatever it is.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,437
    HYUFD said:

    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    5m
    It’s completely unfathomable as to why any British Prime Minister would skip the 80th anniversary of D Day. It’s the job.

    If a Labour Prime Minister had done such a thing, they would be shamed for the rest of their political career.

    He DID NOT skip the 80th anniversary of D Day, he was there yesterday at Southsea and today in Normandy (which was primarily for heads of state and Rishi is not the King).

    The same would apply to a Labour PM. Every other party leader is doing one of these ITV interviews, the main events in Normandy were over when Sunak recorded it. This story is utter rubbish and barrel scraping from Labour and Farage exploiting D Day for their party political ends.

    Fortunately none of the mainstream media have it in their headlines and beyond the Westminster bubble nobody is interested
    Even if that were true - if you wanted to look like a Prime Minister, why would you rather talk to some non-entity at ITV instead of Biden (OK, maybe not Biden), Macron and Zelensky?

    It is totally bizarre.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    Has Sunak just added some more names to tomorrow's 4:55pm Reform-Tory candidate switch?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    I think we can stop worrying about Diane Abbot and the mythical £2K tax bollocks making a dent on this campaign now.

    Every time you think the Tory campaign has hit rock bottom, they find a way to go worse. Making the announcement in the rain seems absolute tiny mistake in comparison.

    Has there been a worse Tory / Labour campaign in modern history? And we thought awful Elvis tribute act was embarrassingly shit.
    May's 2017 campaign is now seen in a new light.
    My Dad say Labour 1983 was worse than this.

    Mind you, as I relate all the latest developments to him straight off of PB, he appears in a state of shock.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6
    HYUFD said:

    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    5m
    It’s completely unfathomable as to why any British Prime Minister would skip the 80th anniversary of D Day. It’s the job.

    If a Labour Prime Minister had done such a thing, they would be shamed for the rest of their political career.

    He DID NOT skip the 80th anniversary of D Day, he was there yesterday at Southsea and today in Normandy (which was primarily for heads of state and Rishi is not the King).

    The same would apply to a Labour PM. Every other party leader is doing one of these ITV interviews, the main events in Normandy were over when Sunak recorded it. This story is utter rubbish and barrel scraping from Labour and Farage exploiting D Day for their party political ends.

    Fortunately none of the mainstream media have it in their headlines and beyond the Westminster bubble nobody is interested
    William spoke to President Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of the event. Mr Sunak did not attend the Omaha Beach ceremony, but UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Mr Starmer were both present.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn44ed7yelzo

    He is going to need an excuse better than an XL Bully eat my homework.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    edited June 6

    Front page of the Mirror:

    image

    Yes well 90% of Mirror readers even voted for Corbyn, so who cares.

    Just because Starmer wanted a photo op with Zelensky was no reason for Rishi to stay after the main commemorations were over and overshadow the royal family.

    Admiral West was a Minister in Brown's Government and also just scoring cheap political points
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,437
    edited June 6

    I think we can stop worrying about Diane Abbot and the mythical £2K tax bollocks making a dent on this campaign now.

    Every time you think the Tory campaign has hit rock bottom, they find a way to go worse. Making the announcement in the rain seems absolute tiny mistake in comparison.

    Has there been a worse Tory / Labour campaign in modern history? And we thought awful Elvis tribute act was embarrassingly shit.
    May's 2017 campaign is now seen in a new light.
    My Dad say Labour 1983 was worse than this.

    Mind you, as I relate all the latest developments to him straight off of PB, he appears in a state of shock.
    Hmmm. 1983 is an interesting comparison.

    Labour could have been wiped out as a party in 1983 if the SDP had done just a little better. They barely avoided crossover.

    It took another 14 years before they got into power.

    Are we buying or selling the Tory party at 14 years in the wilderness?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,631
    MattW said:

    biggles said:

    MattW said:

    biggles said:

    MattW said:

    First data coming in about the likely impact of the Welsh 20mph speed limit in residential areas.

    The casualties on 20 and 30mph roads down by 29%. Difficult to split down as so many have changed category between the two. Also worth noting that that does not identify categories of casualty.

    It's nice to have some numbers during the Election campaign, though only one quarter's worth.

    The number of people injured on 20 and 30mph roads in Wales fell by almost a third in the final quarter of last year, new data published by the Welsh government shows.

    The figures show there were 463 casualties on such roads between October and December, down from 681 in the same period a year earlier.

    The Welsh Labour government has credited the introduction of default 20mph default speed limits, which took effect last September, but Conservatives said more data was needed. Plaid Cymru, which supported the policy, said the figures were "encouraging".

    Labour has since committed to a review of the new law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjee04vlqglo


    I’m not sure about that as a success metric.

    If we limited cars to 5mph on all roads, fatalities would drop to near zero. We don’t do that, because we balance the need to move around more quickly, and so we find a balance - in the past set to about 30mph.

    The only meaningful figure here would be deaths vs productivity/embuggerance, and there’s no “right” answer.
    I agree that reduction to 5mph is a red herring by reductio ad adsurbam. No one is proposing that, and it's really a distraction from the serious argument you suggest - the question is choosing a balance.

    Is 20mph is a better balance than 30mph, and where and how extensively should it be used?

    I suggest that 30 years of experience with hundreds of 20mph schemes in the UK, and extensive experience abroad, shows that it is a better balance for extensive use in urban environments - such as residential and shopping areas.

    On speed of moving around, we need data. I'm sure that will become available.

    There are also a mass of subjective factors, such as pleasantness of environment for us all to live in, noise, systematic safety (ie the system we use for H&S applied to the road / street environment) and so on.
    8< snip.

    We pick a level of road deaths people will tolerate, if they can get from A to B quickly, and set the other conditions accordingly.
    AFAICS we don't do that.

    How many Transport Ministers have you ever heard say how many road deaths are tolerable, and that they will accept that level?

    Even Ministers who take measures that will increase KSIs (such as Mark Harper) or fail to take measures that will reduce them (also Mark Harper) put up a rhetoric around safety being the first priority.
    But that’s the political rhetoric. It has no link to policy formulation, which is what I thought we were debating. We absolutely pick a level of road deaths we’re are happy with when setting the policies. Using different words, every single DFT policy doc does that. And every DH one.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Farage is scheduled to have a day off campaigning tomorrow, i wonder if he might not put in an appearance......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6

    Farage is scheduled to have a day off campaigning tomorrow, i wonder if he might not put in an appearance......

    Does Farage need half a chance to wrap himself in the Union Jack and stick the boot in...its what he lives for.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    Gonna have to hold up my hands and say i was wrong. I thought there may be overreaction but now we know it was apparently just to do a pre recorded interview..... that could be done any time.
    Its astonishing and becoming more so as the clock ticks on tonight.
    He needs to get his arse in front of the cameras to explain and if there is no explanation, apologise. Profusely.

    “ I thought there may be overreaction”

    Well it hasn’t made any of the paper front pages or on any of the news web pages. The Guardian and “i” weren’t interested in it. The Star didn’t have biggles flying back across the channel above the troop landers going the other way.

    so it might just be a social media over reaction, a PB gasm on drunk tank Thursday, if mainstream media deems it so unimportant.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    HYUFD said:

    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    5m
    It’s completely unfathomable as to why any British Prime Minister would skip the 80th anniversary of D Day. It’s the job.

    If a Labour Prime Minister had done such a thing, they would be shamed for the rest of their political career.

    He DID NOT skip the 80th anniversary of D Day, he was there yesterday at Southsea and today in Normandy (which was primarily for heads of state and Rishi is not the King).

    The same would apply to a Labour PM. Every other party leader is doing one of these ITV interviews, the main events in Normandy were over when Sunak recorded it. This story is utter rubbish and barrel scraping from Labour and Farage exploiting D Day for their party political ends.

    Fortunately none of the mainstream media have it in their headlines and beyond the Westminster bubble nobody is interested
    Evening, Dr Pangloss!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6

    Gonna have to hold up my hands and say i was wrong. I thought there may be overreaction but now we know it was apparently just to do a pre recorded interview..... that could be done any time.
    Its astonishing and becoming more so as the clock ticks on tonight.
    He needs to get his arse in front of the cameras to explain and if there is no explanation, apologise. Profusely.

    “ I thought there may be overreaction”

    Well it hasn’t made any of the paper front pages or on any of the news web pages. The Guardian and “i” weren’t interested in it. The Star didn’t have biggles flying back across the channel above the troop landers going the other way.

    so it might just be a social media over reaction, a PB gasm on drunk tank Thursday, if mainstream media deems it so unimportant.
    I think that might be that it looks just as bad as Sunak if they run a big thing on the story and not on D-Day e.g. the Mirror frontpage doesn't look great for them, f##k D-Day, we still need to be partisan and get an attack piece in that takes up half the page.

    We will see what later today brings.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,437
    HYUFD said:

    Front page of the Mirror:

    image

    Yes well 90% of Mirror readers even voted for Corbyn, so who cares.

    Just because Starmer wanted a photo op with Zelensky was no reason for Rishi to stay after the main commemorations were over and overshadow the royal family.

    Admiral West was a Minister in Brown's Government and also just scoring cheap political points
    If this was a political trap, it was a trap surrounded by barbed wire, flashing lights, and large yellow warning notices with sirens. And yet Rishi still fell into it.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,351
    edited June 6
    A number of the 1983 campaign polls had the Liberal/SDP Alliance ahead of Labour. But they faded towards the end.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,082
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    First data coming in about the likely impact of the Welsh 20mph speed limit in residential areas.

    The casualties on 20 and 30mph roads down by 29%. Difficult to split down as so many have changed category between the two. Also worth noting that that does not identify categories of casualty.

    It's nice to have some numbers during the Election campaign, though only one quarter's worth.

    The number of people injured on 20 and 30mph roads in Wales fell by almost a third in the final quarter of last year, new data published by the Welsh government shows.

    The figures show there were 463 casualties on such roads between October and December, down from 681 in the same period a year earlier.

    The Welsh Labour government has credited the introduction of default 20mph default speed limits, which took effect last September, but Conservatives said more data was needed. Plaid Cymru, which supported the policy, said the figures were "encouraging".

    Labour has since committed to a review of the new law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjee04vlqglo

    Lies, damned lies and statistics. It took about 2 minutes to find that road casualties have been falling continuously from a (very high) peak in 2005 and that the trend over the last 2 years is no different to the overall trend of the last 18 years (accepting a trough in 2020 when far fewer people were driving because of covid.)
    I think you need to provide a cite on that TBH. You have data showing that trend for this subset of roads over 20 years?

    You can't evaluate a particular intervention related to a particular subset by quoting a general trend; that's introducing noise into the data.
    It's the Welsh Government's own statistics for road safety for 2022. It includes trends for the road casualties all the way back to 1979.

    Unless of course you don’t trust the Welsh Government's own figures.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,600

    Gonna have to hold up my hands and say i was wrong. I thought there may be overreaction but now we know it was apparently just to do a pre recorded interview..... that could be done any time.
    Its astonishing and becoming more so as the clock ticks on tonight.
    He needs to get his arse in front of the cameras to explain and if there is no explanation, apologise. Profusely.

    “ I thought there may be overreaction”

    Well it hasn’t made any of the paper front pages or on any of the news web pages. The Guardian and “i” weren’t interested in it. The Star didn’t have biggles flying back across the channel above the troop landers going the other way.

    so it might just be a social media over reaction, a PB gasm on drunk tank Thursday, if mainstream media deems it so unimportant.
    I think that might be that it looks just as bad as Sunak if they run a big thing on the story and not on D-Day. We will see what later today brings.
    Yes, it's a slow burn story for that reason, but it's starting to gain traction:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/07/rishi-sunak-criticised-for-leaving-d-day-event-early-to-record-itv-interview

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-did-rishi-leave-the-d-day-commemorations-early/
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Second recount in Torbay. Was a pretty safe blue seat
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6

    Gonna have to hold up my hands and say i was wrong. I thought there may be overreaction but now we know it was apparently just to do a pre recorded interview..... that could be done any time.
    Its astonishing and becoming more so as the clock ticks on tonight.
    He needs to get his arse in front of the cameras to explain and if there is no explanation, apologise. Profusely.

    “ I thought there may be overreaction”

    Well it hasn’t made any of the paper front pages or on any of the news web pages. The Guardian and “i” weren’t interested in it. The Star didn’t have biggles flying back across the channel above the troop landers going the other way.

    so it might just be a social media over reaction, a PB gasm on drunk tank Thursday, if mainstream media deems it so unimportant.
    I think that might be that it looks just as bad as Sunak if they run a big thing on the story and not on D-Day. We will see what later today brings.
    Yes, it's a slow burn story for that reason, but it's starting to gain traction:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/07/rishi-sunak-criticised-for-leaving-d-day-event-early-to-record-itv-interview

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-did-rishi-leave-the-d-day-commemorations-early/
    The Speccy really really don't like Sunak do they. Normally the left and right media roll in behind their team by now with the well they aren't perfect, but look squirrel over there, much worse, much more dangerous.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,082
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chameleon said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Latest Tory unfunded* bung to the well off.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/06/tories-pledge-to-raise-pay-threshold-for-child-benefit-charge

    * To be paid for by cracking down on tax avoidance.
    Again.

    I look forward to the IFS analysis of the Tory manifesto.
    The Tory approaches seems to be following the Corbyn manifesto of 2019. Throw loads of red meat towards the base, but a) lots of rubbish policies crowding out the ones that individually perhaps are ok, b) but in the totality, everybody with half a brain goes hold on it just isn't possible to do that.

    The triple lock++ for oldies, the new triple lock, no tax rises, I presume IHT abolished with be in there.
    They’re trying to out-Reform Reform, and that’s going to be impossible now. Because Farage is a far more skilled salesman than Sunak. He has his own particular type of baggage, but he’s not (thank god, many of us would say) ever had to run anything, so he’s a fresh slate in that respect.

    The more I look at this the more I think the Tories are screwed and we’re on course for a significant realignment on the right. I thought it would come in the next parliament, but I am starting to think it might actually have arrived early.
    There is a general lack of inventive policy across the board. Even Labour flagship stuff like a wealth fund is actually just rehashed centralised PFI when you look at it.
    The truth is that at the present time and with our demographics, there is very little scope for major spending. Particularly so when we are taxed at a post war record, and at a rate set to increase for another 4 years.
    Which is why I think Labour will have to go big on construction - all those extra jobs, all the VAT on materials, increased council tax as 4 & 5 bed flatshares split into more homes and stamp duty from increased sales. The cost to the exchequer is practically zero, it's popular and the people it annoys were never going to vote for them anyway.
    It's a very good point about building generating a lot of income for both local and national government.

    It's a no-brainer of a policy.
    It needs to be the right sort of building. Council houses and 1 abd 2 bedroom starter homes that people can actually afford to buy. Stop building all those 4 and 5 bedroom executive estates that don't help the people at the bottom.
    Let the market decide - besides there's lots of evidence that high end property construction filters on average 13 families into every property for each one built. If you build e.g. social rent housing you help 1, maybe 2 or 3 families. Higher end housing cascades down improving the lot of more families.

    However overall adopting zoning like NZ is the way to go. After a few years the markets will decide what is needed. Zoning of course needs to be paired with getting rid of the ridiculous nutrient neutrality, bat bullshit and other ridiculous red tape so that new entrants can actually enter the market again.
    Bullshit. What the market decides is that when house prices stop rising they stop building houses. The market is broken.
    We kind of agree on the last pointl it's nowhere near a free market current - the Government imposes huge costs to apply for housing, which it then puts into an approval tombola. This forces out a lot of potential suppliers. Then they insist on ridiculous standards for anything to get built which means that unless you have a set of generic plans to copy and paste as well as in-house bat faeces consultants it's impractical to build as much more than a hobby.

    We need to open up the market and tear down the barriers to entry by eliminating the planning approval lottery as well as many of the more restrictive rent-seekers who current have to have input into basically every application. I know of several small scale house builders who have been forced out by all this nonsense in the past decade - which has led to massive consolidation in the housebuilding market. Reduce the barriers to entry/operate and watch the market fix itself.
    Oh dear another lunatic who doesn't understand what the planning system is for and how it works.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    11m
    Tory MPs struggling to comprehend what Sunak has done tonight. There’s an explosion coming.

    Apparently Sunak also took his poppy off for the ITV interview.
    Do you think Labour have planted someone on the inside of the Tory campaign advising this stuff, or is Sunak simply dim and awful?
    Lets say for shits and giggles there is a Labour supporter causes trouble. I mean literally how much of an beeepppp do you have to be to think hmm its a big important national day, all those world leaders are here, no must go now. Maybe he literally has no ability to stand up to anybody and say I don't care if ITV want an interview, I need to stay for 2 more hours.
    It is completely unfathomable, who would make such a poor decision?

    You're there with all the major world leaders, monarchs, veterans, commemorating the start of the liberation of occupied France. You then make your excuses and leave, so you can chat to some bloke from ITV about how you aren't a liar. Remembering to take your poppy off, naturally.
    It is so mind bending. The thing is I thought Sunak was a poor leader, over promoted from middle management and somewhat out of touch with concerns of some of society, but this is like not standing for the national anthem, you don't need to be told unless you are 5 years old.
    Starmer needs to use this on Wednesday in the Sky debate, it will be absolute poison to viewers.
    The Sky one is not a head to head debate, Sky are only having 1 head at a time. Sunak should be able to make some capital that Starmer is still too scared to debate him.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,257

    I think we can stop worrying about Diane Abbot and the mythical £2K tax bollocks making a dent on this campaign now.

    Every time you think the Tory campaign has hit rock bottom, they find a way to go worse. Making the announcement in the rain seems absolute tiny mistake in comparison.

    Has there been a worse Tory / Labour campaign in modern history? And we thought awful Elvis tribute act was embarrassingly shit.
    May's 2017 campaign is now seen in a new light.
    My Dad say Labour 1983 was worse than this.

    Mind you, as I relate all the latest developments to him straight off of PB, he appears in a state of shock.
    That was the election where the Labour Party manifesto was dubbed "the longest suicide note in history" by Labour MP Gerald Kaufman.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995

    Gonna have to hold up my hands and say i was wrong. I thought there may be overreaction but now we know it was apparently just to do a pre recorded interview..... that could be done any time.
    Its astonishing and becoming more so as the clock ticks on tonight.
    He needs to get his arse in front of the cameras to explain and if there is no explanation, apologise. Profusely.

    “ I thought there may be overreaction”

    Well it hasn’t made any of the paper front pages or on any of the news web pages. The Guardian and “i” weren’t interested in it. The Star didn’t have biggles flying back across the channel above the troop landers going the other way.

    so it might just be a social media over reaction, a PB gasm on drunk tank Thursday, if mainstream media deems it so unimportant.
    Nobody is interested in the mainstream media beyond the Labour partisan Mirror because this is an appalling political spin by Labour and Farage to exploit D Day for their own ends (which a few anti Sunak Tories are jumping on the bandwagon of).

    Sunak attended the main commemorations today and the commemorations at Southsea yesterday, he even pushed a vet in his wheelchair this morning. The main complaint seems to be he didn't stay to grab poor Zelensky for a shameless photo op like Starmer!!!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Tories hold on in Torbay by 9 votes
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6
    Sunak further problem is he doesn't have the Boris super power of hazzzah, insert latiny or greek words, make a joke, people giggle, everybody has forgotten what the issue was.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    edited June 6

    Farage is scheduled to have a day off campaigning tomorrow, i wonder if he might not put in an appearance......

    Does Farage need half a chance to wrap himself in the Union Jack and stick the boot in...its what he lives for.
    This would be the same Farage who on a CCF camp at secondary school '... had marched through a quiet Sussex village very late at night shouting Hitler-youth songs?' And he has the audacity to criticise Sunak for allegedly not showing enough respect to those who defeated Hitler!
    https://www.channel4.com/news/nigel-farage-ukip-letter-school-concerns-racism-fascism
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,351
    Torbay / Wellswood

    Hazel Foster (Conservative) 938
    Peter Fenton (Liberal Democrat) 929
    Mike Lister (Reform UK) 188
    Jonathan Chant-Stevens (Labour) 117
    Jenny Giel (Green) 34
    Paul Moor (Workers Party of Britain) 11
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    Tories hold on in Torbay by 9 votes

    Reform beat Labour for third but no faragasm
    TORBAY COUNCIL BY-ELECTION AFTER TWO RECOUNTS - WELLSWOOD: Jonathan Chant-Stevens (Labour) 117; Peter Fenton (Liberal Democrat) 929; Hazel Foster (Conservative) 938; Jenny Giel (Green) 34; Mike Lister (Reform) 188; Paul Moor (Workers Party GB) 11.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6
    HYUFD said:

    Farage is scheduled to have a day off campaigning tomorrow, i wonder if he might not put in an appearance......

    Does Farage need half a chance to wrap himself in the Union Jack and stick the boot in...its what he lives for.
    This would be the same Farage who on a CCF camp at secondary school '... had marched through a quiet Sussex village very late at night shouting Hitler-youth songs?' And he has the audacity to criticise Sunak for allegedly not showing enough respect to those who defeated Hitler!
    https://www.channel4.com/news/nigel-farage-ukip-letter-school-concerns-racism-fascism
    Rehashing that stuff won't make any difference. Its not me you have to convince, there will be an election shortly and it seems like he is on course to steal lots of natural Tory votes. He will be looking to capitalise on this story.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202


    James Chapman
    @jameschappers
    ·
    1h
    The PM is the PM. His team can command a TV crew interviewing him to be at whatever location they see fit at whatever time. Quitting D-Day commemorations early leaving David Cameron in charge to record an ITV interview not out till next week makes no sense. A terrible own goal.

    No. ITV have made clear they didn’t force the timing, it was Sunak’s Team who chose the time. The mistake team made was not inviting ITV to interview him over there, straight after proceedings.

    The ITV side of all this seems a bit fishy to me actually - in the middle of an election campaign what is a pre recorded interview for the news talking about this weeks past debate, to be shown in a weeks time. Can you not see it’s impossible? By next week things have moved on, this footage can’t be used, it will have worthless news value. Fishy isn’t it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    edited June 6

    HYUFD said:

    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    5m
    It’s completely unfathomable as to why any British Prime Minister would skip the 80th anniversary of D Day. It’s the job.

    If a Labour Prime Minister had done such a thing, they would be shamed for the rest of their political career.

    He DID NOT skip the 80th anniversary of D Day, he was there yesterday at Southsea and today in Normandy (which was primarily for heads of state and Rishi is not the King).

    The same would apply to a Labour PM. Every other party leader is doing one of these ITV interviews, the main events in Normandy were over when Sunak recorded it. This story is utter rubbish and barrel scraping from Labour and Farage exploiting D Day for their party political ends.

    Fortunately none of the mainstream media have it in their headlines and beyond the Westminster bubble nobody is interested
    William spoke to President Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of the event. Mr Sunak did not attend the Omaha Beach ceremony, but UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Mr Starmer were both present.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn44ed7yelzo

    He is going to need an excuse better than an XL Bully eat my homework.
    I do not recall British soldiers at Omaha, it was a beach where US troops led the landings.

    Sunak is also not the head of state or next head of state. Later in the day, 'Prince William joined heads of state at Omaha Beach'
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 6


    James Chapman
    @jameschappers
    ·
    1h
    The PM is the PM. His team can command a TV crew interviewing him to be at whatever location they see fit at whatever time. Quitting D-Day commemorations early leaving David Cameron in charge to record an ITV interview not out till next week makes no sense. A terrible own goal.

    No. ITV have made clear they didn’t force the timing, it was Sunak’s Team who chose the time. The mistake team made was not inviting ITV to interview him over there, straight after proceedings.

    The ITV side of all this seems a bit fishy to me actually - in the middle of an election campaign what is a pre recorded interview for the news talking about this weeks past debate, to be shown in a weeks time. Can you not see it’s impossible? By next week things have moved on, this footage can’t be used, it will have worthless news value. Fishy isn’t it?
    With no manifesto published either....why would you do it, because you can't even lay out your plans fully. Just lots of wait and see.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    edited June 7

    I think we can stop worrying about Diane Abbot and the mythical £2K tax bollocks making a dent on this campaign now.

    Every time you think the Tory campaign has hit rock bottom, they find a way to go worse. Making the announcement in the rain seems absolute tiny mistake in comparison.

    Has there been a worse Tory / Labour campaign in modern history? And we thought awful Elvis tribute act was embarrassingly shit.
    May's 2017 campaign is now seen in a new light.
    My Dad say Labour 1983 was worse than this.

    Mind you, as I relate all the latest developments to him straight off of PB, he appears in a state of shock.
    That was the election where the Labour Party manifesto was dubbed "the longest suicide note in history" by Labour MP Gerald Kaufman.
    That’s how my Dad explained it to me, they weren’t all on the same page and on message, unlike how well the Tory’s are doing in this election.

    Penny, a bit of an unpredictable electron, might still let the side down tomorrow.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,987

    Tories hold on in Torbay by 9 votes

    Reform beat Labour for third but no faragasm
    TORBAY COUNCIL BY-ELECTION AFTER TWO RECOUNTS - WELLSWOOD: Jonathan Chant-Stevens (Labour) 117; Peter Fenton (Liberal Democrat) 929; Hazel Foster (Conservative) 938; Jenny Giel (Green) 34; Mike Lister (Reform) 188; Paul Moor (Workers Party GB) 11.
    The Con majority over the Lib Dems was 900 in 2023.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,995
    Andy_JS said:

    Torbay / Wellswood

    Hazel Foster (Conservative) 938
    Peter Fenton (Liberal Democrat) 929
    Mike Lister (Reform UK) 188
    Jonathan Chant-Stevens (Labour) 117
    Jenny Giel (Green) 34
    Paul Moor (Workers Party of Britain) 11

    Hazel Foster is MP Kevin Foster's wife
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,052
    Andy_JS said:

    A number of the 1983 campaign polls had the Liberal/SDP Alliance ahead of Labour. But they faded towards the end.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election

    That's actually very interesting. Despite the 1983 Conservatives achieving 42.4% of the vote and the SDP/Liberal alliance getting 25.4% of the vote, Labour, even on 27.6% of the vote, still got over 200 seats!

    I don't know if it will still happen in the present day, with SNP even in its cups predicted to get over 20 seats? But it warns against complacency
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,351
    edited June 7
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    A number of the 1983 campaign polls had the Liberal/SDP Alliance ahead of Labour. But they faded towards the end.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election

    That's actually very interesting. Despite the 1983 Conservatives achieving 42.4% of the vote and the SDP/Liberal alliance getting 25.4% of the vote, Labour, even on 27.6% of the vote, still got over 200 seats!

    I don't know if it will still happen in the present day, with SNP even in its cups predicted to get over 20 seats? But it warns against complacency
    I've been obsessed with the 1983 election for years, so it's surprising for me to find someone on PB who isn't familiar with it, but that probably says more about me than anyone else!

    Interesting how there was such as small gap in votes between Labour and Alliance, but Labour winning nearly 10 times as many seats.

    A few years ago someone sent me a VHS video tape they'd recorded of ITN's election night show for that year, and I put it on YouTube. Doesn't start at the beginning regrettably.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3eb5b5DOZs
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,340
    edited June 7
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    5m
    It’s completely unfathomable as to why any British Prime Minister would skip the 80th anniversary of D Day. It’s the job.

    If a Labour Prime Minister had done such a thing, they would be shamed for the rest of their political career.

    He DID NOT skip the 80th anniversary of D Day, he was there yesterday at Southsea and today in Normandy (which was primarily for heads of state and Rishi is not the King).

    The same would apply to a Labour PM. Every other party leader is doing one of these ITV interviews, the main events in Normandy were over when Sunak recorded it. This story is utter rubbish and barrel scraping from Labour and Farage exploiting D Day for their party political ends.

    Fortunately none of the mainstream media have it in their headlines and beyond the Westminster bubble nobody is interested
    William spoke to President Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of the event. Mr Sunak did not attend the Omaha Beach ceremony, but UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Mr Starmer were both present.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn44ed7yelzo

    He is going to need an excuse better than an XL Bully eat my homework.
    I do not recall British soldiers at Omaha, it was a beach where US troops led the landings.

    Sunak is also not the head of state or next head of state. Later in the day, 'Prince William joined heads of state at Omaha Beach'
    The Canadians weren't at Omaha Beach either but Trudeau was there.

    I am sure it will be revealed shortly was Sunak originally invited / accepted. If he was on the guest list along with Cameron and Starmer and didn't attend he is in big trouble.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,600

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    5m
    It’s completely unfathomable as to why any British Prime Minister would skip the 80th anniversary of D Day. It’s the job.

    If a Labour Prime Minister had done such a thing, they would be shamed for the rest of their political career.

    He DID NOT skip the 80th anniversary of D Day, he was there yesterday at Southsea and today in Normandy (which was primarily for heads of state and Rishi is not the King).

    The same would apply to a Labour PM. Every other party leader is doing one of these ITV interviews, the main events in Normandy were over when Sunak recorded it. This story is utter rubbish and barrel scraping from Labour and Farage exploiting D Day for their party political ends.

    Fortunately none of the mainstream media have it in their headlines and beyond the Westminster bubble nobody is interested
    William spoke to President Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of the event. Mr Sunak did not attend the Omaha Beach ceremony, but UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Mr Starmer were both present.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn44ed7yelzo

    He is going to need an excuse better than an XL Bully eat my homework.
    I do not recall British soldiers at Omaha, it was a beach where US troops led the landings.

    Sunak is also not the head of state or next head of state. Later in the day, 'Prince William joined heads of state at Omaha Beach'
    The Canadians weren't at Omaha Beach either but Trudeau was there.
    Scholz was there too, although to be fair, the Germans were there.
This discussion has been closed.