This is quite brutal to Starmer. It won’t make any difference this side of the election, however it could mean the honeymoon is shorter and almost certainly suggests that Sir Keir could run into political trouble much more quickly than anyone anticipates. Wondering what price SKS not lasting a full term might be.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
"Milkshake attacks". The work of the milkshake Taliban? Take it easy BigG. Think instead about Labour chaos in Wales and how that might play out in the GE and deliver Rishi a hatful of seats, or maybe not.
Good morning
The sad part about Gething is yet again another politician, this time a labour First Minister, deciding to ignore a vonc and carry on and at the same time has received the backing of Starmer
It will not change the GE result of a wipe out of conservative mps, but what is depressing is there seems to be no consequences for the lack of integrity amongst our leaders.
I notice Drakeford had a furious row with his colleagues over dropping the change to Welsh children's school holiday times as he arrogantly said it was his legacy, one which he hadn't been put out to public consultation and now the Welsh government has and found it to be unpopular especially with teachers so much so it will not be revisited until after the 2026 Senedd election
On another issue Ed Davey has come out this morning condemning labours vat raid on private schools which the Lib Dems do not support
His Vox Pop on the news was all how hurtful to him it is. All very self pitying and ‘poor me’
Modern politicians are shameless. Across all parties.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
"Milkshake attacks". The work of the milkshake Taliban? Take it easy BigG. Think instead about Labour chaos in Wales and how that might play out in the GE and deliver Rishi a hatful of seats, or maybe not.
Good morning
The sad part about Gething is yet again another politician, this time a labour First Minister, deciding to ignore a vonc and carry on and at the same time has received the backing of Starmer
It will not change the GE result of a wipe out of conservative mps, but what is depressing is there seems to be no consequences for the lack of integrity amongst our leaders.
I notice Drakeford had a furious row with his colleagues over dropping the change to Welsh children's school holiday times as he arrogantly said it was his legacy, one which he hadn't been put out to public consultation and now the Welsh government has and found it to be unpopular especially with teachers so much so it will not be revisited until after the 2026 Senedd election
On another issue Ed Davey has come out this morning condemning labours vat raid on private schools which the Lib Dems do not support
Taking a donation from someone convicted of dumping waste was insane . And he should not have been elected in the first place to FM . However the Tories can hardly play the innocent card after the furore over Hester .
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
"Milkshake attacks". The work of the milkshake Taliban? Take it easy BigG. Think instead about Labour chaos in Wales and how that might play out in the GE and deliver Rishi a hatful of seats, or maybe not.
Good morning
The sad part about Gething is yet again another politician, this time a labour First Minister, deciding to ignore a vonc and carry on and at the same time has received the backing of Starmer
It will not change the GE result of a wipe out of conservative mps, but what is depressing is there seems to be no consequences for the lack of integrity amongst our leaders.
I notice Drakeford had a furious row with his colleagues over dropping the change to Welsh children's school holiday times as he arrogantly said it was his legacy, one which he hadn't been put out to public consultation and now the Welsh government has and found it to be unpopular especially with teachers so much so it will not be revisited until after the 2026 Senedd election
On another issue Ed Davey has come out this morning condemning labours vat raid on private schools which the Lib Dems do not support
Taking a donation from someone convicted of dumping waste was insane . And he should not have been elected in the first place to FM . However the Tories can hardly play the innocent card after the furore over Hester .
It seems corruption is widespread across politics as is integrity
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
"Milkshake attacks". The work of the milkshake Taliban? Take it easy BigG. Think instead about Labour chaos in Wales and how that might play out in the GE and deliver Rishi a hatful of seats, or maybe not.
Good morning
The sad part about Gething is yet again another politician, this time a labour First Minister, deciding to ignore a vonc and carry on and at the same time has received the backing of Starmer
It will not change the GE result of a wipe out of conservative mps, but what is depressing is there seems to be no consequences for the lack of integrity amongst our leaders.
I notice Drakeford had a furious row with his colleagues over dropping the change to Welsh children's school holiday times as he arrogantly said it was his legacy, one which he hadn't been put out to public consultation and now the Welsh government has and found it to be unpopular especially with teachers so much so it will not be revisited until after the 2026 Senedd election
On another issue Ed Davey has come out this morning condemning labours vat raid on private schools which the Lib Dems do not support
Taking a donation from someone convicted of dumping waste was insane . And he should not have been elected in the first place to FM . However the Tories can hardly play the innocent card after the furore over Hester .
It seems corruption is widespread across politics as is integrity
The next EC update re donations is due at the end of the month .
That will likely confirm the Tories took a further 5 million pounds from Hester , not a great look going into the election . The Tories have done more to trash integrity in politics than any other party.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
"Milkshake attacks". The work of the milkshake Taliban? Take it easy BigG. Think instead about Labour chaos in Wales and how that might play out in the GE and deliver Rishi a hatful of seats, or maybe not.
Good morning
The sad part about Gething is yet again another politician, this time a labour First Minister, deciding to ignore a vonc and carry on and at the same time has received the backing of Starmer
It will not change the GE result of a wipe out of conservative mps, but what is depressing is there seems to be no consequences for the lack of integrity amongst our leaders.
I notice Drakeford had a furious row with his colleagues over dropping the change to Welsh children's school holiday times as he arrogantly said it was his legacy, one which he hadn't been put out to public consultation and now the Welsh government has and found it to be unpopular especially with teachers so much so it will not be revisited until after the 2026 Senedd election
On another issue Ed Davey has come out this morning condemning labours vat raid on private schools which the Lib Dems do not support
Taking a donation from someone convicted of dumping waste was insane . And he should not have been elected in the first place to FM . However the Tories can hardly play the innocent card after the furore over Hester .
It seems corruption is widespread across politics as is integrity
The next EC update re donations is due at the end of the month .
That will likely confirm the Tories took a further 5 million pounds from Hester , not a great look going into the election . The Tories have done more to trash integrity in politics than any other party.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Also worth pointing out that if the Tories continue to Tory and LDs end up as the official opposition it's a once in a lifetime chance to displace the Tories - if they put forward a sensible centre-right platform while Reform take over the Tories come 2029 they may remain the OO.
If the LDs put forward a centre right platform they lose their SDP, social democratic wing to Labour or even the Greens and are back under 10% again as in 2015 with no Labour tactical votes for them either in their target seats.
They won't become the OO on that. The only party that could replace the Tories as the OO to Starmer Labour is a party led by Farage, as around 30%+ will vote for a socially conservative, pro Brexit, rightwing party
I don't think the left/right axis is very meaningful anymore to British politics. What defines a party more is its attitude to internal democracy, individual liberty and authoritarianism.
That's why LDs can appeal to the free enterprise right, a group repelled by Brexit protectionism, while still appealing to Greens by being decentralised. It is a space between the authoritarian centralising philosophy of Labour and the reactionary social conservatism, culture war and Autarky of Reform and Conservatives.
It isn't a vast space as most Britons don't really value freedom, and prefer the smack of firm government,, but it is one that spreads well outside of current LD support, particularly to one nation Conservatives.
Voters who are pro free enterprise, pro low taxes and small state, pro immigration and socially liberal amount to 10% of the electorate at most. That is the brutal electoral reality.
There might be a market for a party with such an approach under PR, under FPTP it would get steamrollered by Labour and the Reform/Conservative main block
10% here, 10% there and soon you're winning elections.
Under FPTP the Conservatives win as a big tent which include pro free enterprise, low tax etc right wingers.
Without us, you lose and get steamrollered by Labour.
This is quite brutal to Starmer. It won’t make any difference this side of the election, however it could mean the honeymoon is shorter and almost certainly suggests that Sir Keir could run into political trouble much more quickly than anyone anticipates. Wondering what price SKS not lasting a full term might be.
"A rose by any other name would smell as sweet, said Juliet, but the legislature of Illinois does not agree. It believes that the word “offender” should now be replaced by the term “justice-impacted individual.”"
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Also worth pointing out that if the Tories continue to Tory and LDs end up as the official opposition it's a once in a lifetime chance to displace the Tories - if they put forward a sensible centre-right platform while Reform take over the Tories come 2029 they may remain the OO.
If the LDs put forward a centre right platform they lose their SDP, social democratic wing to Labour or even the Greens and are back under 10% again as in 2015 with no Labour tactical votes for them either in their target seats.
They won't become the OO on that. The only party that could replace the Tories as the OO to Starmer Labour is a party led by Farage, as around 30%+ will vote for a socially conservative, pro Brexit, rightwing party
I don't think the left/right axis is very meaningful anymore to British politics. What defines a party more is its attitude to internal democracy, individual liberty and authoritarianism.
That's why LDs can appeal to the free enterprise right, a group repelled by Brexit protectionism, while still appealing to Greens by being decentralised. It is a space between the authoritarian centralising philosophy of Labour and the reactionary social conservatism, culture war and Autarky of Reform and Conservatives.
It isn't a vast space as most Britons don't really value freedom, and prefer the smack of firm government,, but it is one that spreads well outside of current LD support, particularly to one nation Conservatives.
Voters who are pro free enterprise, pro low taxes and small state, pro immigration and socially liberal amount to 10% of the electorate at most. That is the brutal electoral reality.
There might be a market for a party with such an approach under PR, under FPTP it would get steamrollered by Labour and the Reform/Conservative main block
10% here, 10% there and soon you're winning elections.
Under FPTP the Conservatives win as a big tent which include pro free enterprise, low tax etc right wingers.
Without us, you lose and get steamrollered by Labour.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Also worth pointing out that if the Tories continue to Tory and LDs end up as the official opposition it's a once in a lifetime chance to displace the Tories - if they put forward a sensible centre-right platform while Reform take over the Tories come 2029 they may remain the OO.
If the LDs put forward a centre right platform they lose their SDP, social democratic wing to Labour or even the Greens and are back under 10% again as in 2015 with no Labour tactical votes for them either in their target seats.
They won't become the OO on that. The only party that could replace the Tories as the OO to Starmer Labour is a party led by Farage, as around 30%+ will vote for a socially conservative, pro Brexit, rightwing party
I don't think the left/right axis is very meaningful anymore to British politics. What defines a party more is its attitude to internal democracy, individual liberty and authoritarianism.
That's why LDs can appeal to the free enterprise right, a group repelled by Brexit protectionism, while still appealing to Greens by being decentralised. It is a space between the authoritarian centralising philosophy of Labour and the reactionary social conservatism, culture war and Autarky of Reform and Conservatives.
It isn't a vast space as most Britons don't really value freedom, and prefer the smack of firm government,, but it is one that spreads well outside of current LD support, particularly to one nation Conservatives.
Voters who are pro free enterprise, pro low taxes and small state, pro immigration and socially liberal amount to 10% of the electorate at most. That is the brutal electoral reality.
There might be a market for a party with such an approach under PR, under FPTP it would get steamrollered by Labour and the Reform/Conservative main block
10% here, 10% there and soon you're winning elections.
Under FPTP the Conservatives win as a big tent which include pro free enterprise, low tax etc right wingers.
Without us, you lose and get steamrollered by Labour.
As you're going to see this year.
You speak as if you are the only group they have alienated?
There’s nothing special about you lot. Join the queue.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
"Milkshake attacks". The work of the milkshake Taliban? Take it easy BigG. Think instead about Labour chaos in Wales and how that might play out in the GE and deliver Rishi a hatful of seats, or maybe not.
Good morning
The sad part about Gething is yet again another politician, this time a labour First Minister, deciding to ignore a vonc and carry on and at the same time has received the backing of Starmer
It will not change the GE result of a wipe out of conservative mps, but what is depressing is there seems to be no consequences for the lack of integrity amongst our leaders.
I notice Drakeford had a furious row with his colleagues over dropping the change to Welsh children's school holiday times as he arrogantly said it was his legacy, one which he hadn't been put out to public consultation and now the Welsh government has and found it to be unpopular especially with teachers so much so it will not be revisited until after the 2026 Senedd election
On another issue Ed Davey has come out this morning condemning labours vat raid on private schools which the Lib Dems do not support
His Vox Pop on the news was all how hurtful to him it is. All very self pitying and ‘poor me’
Modern politicians are shameless. Across all parties.
Davey or Gething?
I would add, Labour's behaviour during the vote yesterday was disgusting. No, it's not because of his skin colour, it's because he's been taking money he shouldn't have.
Just as with Johnson it wasn't his sex life or his policies but his criminal behaviour.
Or with Sturgeon it wasn't transgender rights but police investigations.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Also worth pointing out that if the Tories continue to Tory and LDs end up as the official opposition it's a once in a lifetime chance to displace the Tories - if they put forward a sensible centre-right platform while Reform take over the Tories come 2029 they may remain the OO.
If the LDs put forward a centre right platform they lose their SDP, social democratic wing to Labour or even the Greens and are back under 10% again as in 2015 with no Labour tactical votes for them either in their target seats.
They won't become the OO on that. The only party that could replace the Tories as the OO to Starmer Labour is a party led by Farage, as around 30%+ will vote for a socially conservative, pro Brexit, rightwing party
I don't think the left/right axis is very meaningful anymore to British politics. What defines a party more is its attitude to internal democracy, individual liberty and authoritarianism.
That's why LDs can appeal to the free enterprise right, a group repelled by Brexit protectionism, while still appealing to Greens by being decentralised. It is a space between the authoritarian centralising philosophy of Labour and the reactionary social conservatism, culture war and Autarky of Reform and Conservatives.
It isn't a vast space as most Britons don't really value freedom, and prefer the smack of firm government,, but it is one that spreads well outside of current LD support, particularly to one nation Conservatives.
Voters who are pro free enterprise, pro low taxes and small state, pro immigration and socially liberal amount to 10% of the electorate at most. That is the brutal electoral reality.
There might be a market for a party with such an approach under PR, under FPTP it would get steamrollered by Labour and the Reform/Conservative main block
10% here, 10% there and soon you're winning elections.
Under FPTP the Conservatives win as a big tent which include pro free enterprise, low tax etc right wingers.
Without us, you lose and get steamrollered by Labour.
As you're going to see this year.
You speak as if you are the only group they have alienated?
There’s nothing special about you lot. Join the queue.
Oddly enough, I think that's the group they've least alienated! And HYUFD is right - if you look at the research, socially liberal/economically right people are very rare.
Middle Britons (average voter) > Labour Traditional (Rich, socially conservative) > Reform Apolitical centrists (right economics, central socially, young) > Labour/Lib Dem Left-behind patriots (economically left, socially right) > Reform
Urban progressives (yoga, coffee, cycling) > Green (from Labour) Soft-left (liberal social, centrist economics) > Stick with Labour/Lib Dem
@ConnorGillies Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has called an emergency press conference to deliver an ‘announcement’ regarding the general election.
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
Not sure what you mean but I hope it is not connected to the widely condemned milk shake attack on Farage
Its a joke. Besides Farage appears to have set up the milkshake "attack" for publicity. And it worked beautifully.
You are a lib dem candidate joking about milkshakes attacks?
"Milkshake attacks". The work of the milkshake Taliban? Take it easy BigG. Think instead about Labour chaos in Wales and how that might play out in the GE and deliver Rishi a hatful of seats, or maybe not.
Good morning
The sad part about Gething is yet again another politician, this time a labour First Minister, deciding to ignore a vonc and carry on and at the same time has received the backing of Starmer
It will not change the GE result of a wipe out of conservative mps, but what is depressing is there seems to be no consequences for the lack of integrity amongst our leaders.
I notice Drakeford had a furious row with his colleagues over dropping the change to Welsh children's school holiday times as he arrogantly said it was his legacy, one which he hadn't been put out to public consultation and now the Welsh government has and found it to be unpopular especially with teachers so much so it will not be revisited until after the 2026 Senedd election
On another issue Ed Davey has come out this morning condemning labours vat raid on private schools which the Lib Dems do not support
Gething needs to be gone for everyone's sake. For the optics alone he was foolish. I take the Dauson shilling so I can't complain about that side of things, but then I never had aspirations to be FM.
As to VAT on private schools, shame on Ed. Is he going to make my educational business VAT free too?
I understand the anger towards Sunak who has damaged the Party almost beyond repair and all but guaranteed the majority of his MPs will lose their job next month. But it’s hard to muster much sympathy given that none of this would have happened without the complicity of a majority of the Party & what is now unfolding was entirely predictable- indeed predicted. The hope is that when Sunak disappears off to California in a few weeks there are at least some decent MPs left around which to rebuild 🤞🙏🤞"
Goldsmith is utterly deluded if he thinks this is all on Sunak. The Tory party has collectively been high on its own propaganda for the last 10 years. Until they start engaging with real people’s daily concerns they’ll be toast.
And hint, I can say as a resident of South Shropshire that immigration and trans stuff are not top of my list of concerns. Important, especially the former but no more so than public services, climate change and the rebuttal of fascist dictatorships.
This is quite brutal to Starmer. It won’t make any difference this side of the election, however it could mean the honeymoon is shorter and almost certainly suggests that Sir Keir could run into political trouble much more quickly than anyone anticipates. Wondering what price SKS not lasting a full term might be.
So we’re supposed to believe Starmer is more untrustworthy than Johnson !
They have slightly different vices. Boris had a tendency to oversell the small stuff and make it seem a bigger deal than was the case. This fits with his his over the top personality. Starmer is a much blander character, the personification of beige, he is very much a Vicar of Bray character who fits his views to the times to always stay on top.
Tony Benn always referred to two types of political leaders, signposts and weathercocks. Signposts are rooted in something and point the same way regardless, weathercocks point whichever way the wind is blowing. Starmer epitomises the latter. It’s not going to matter much this side of power but if he exhibits the same inclinations in office he will get into serious problems.
This cannot, cannot, cannot be repeated often enough: Reform will hit harder than polls suggest because they weren’t on the ballot last time in vast majority of Tory seats, and they will now in all of them. The implications of this still haven’t been taken in. Lethal for Tories.
Reform were more of a problem for the Consertives while Richard Tice was the leader in some seats if the current polling was nailed on, now Nigel Farage is the leader its become a far bigger problem for the Labour party under Keir Starmer. Just how many votes will he attract from former Labour voters who switched to UKIP first before going Conservative in 2019 while the narrative is that Labour is so far ahead in the polls they cannot possible lose and its all about whether they can achieve a record breaking majority that beats Tony Blairs result in 1997?
Keep on the hopium Fitalass. That may have been the case in 2019, but that realignment happened. RefUK are all about damaging the Tories now.
@ConnorGillies Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has called an emergency press conference to deliver an ‘announcement’ regarding the general election.
Interesting, from his point of view dissociating the Scottish Tories from the rest of the party would probably be beneficial in the long term. Move to a CDU/CSU type arrangement. It’s probably a lot more boring than that though.
Mr. Monksfield, but the working class/Red Wall types had already abandoned the Conservative, no?
I do agree Farage/Reform's a bigger problem overall for the blues than the reds, but there's a lot more voters willing to shift from Labour, just because their polling's so high. Anyone still voting Conservatives is likely to be the core vote.
This cannot, cannot, cannot be repeated often enough: Reform will hit harder than polls suggest because they weren’t on the ballot last time in vast majority of Tory seats, and they will now in all of them. The implications of this still haven’t been taken in. Lethal for Tories.
Reform were more of a problem for the Consertives while Richard Tice was the leader in some seats if the current polling was nailed on, now Nigel Farage is the leader its become a far bigger problem for the Labour party under Keir Starmer. Just how many votes will he attract from former Labour voters who switched to UKIP first before going Conservative in 2019 while the narrative is that Labour is so far ahead in the polls they cannot possible lose and its all about whether they can achieve a record breaking majority that beats Tony Blairs result in 1997?
Keep on the hopium Fitalass. That may have been the case in 2019, but that realignment happened. RefUK are all about damaging the Tories now.
They were also there in 2019 - it was their splitting of the Tory vote that Resulted Cooper and Milburn winning their seats - it just wasn’t so obvious when the Tory vote was 15-20% higher
This cannot, cannot, cannot be repeated often enough: Reform will hit harder than polls suggest because they weren’t on the ballot last time in vast majority of Tory seats, and they will now in all of them. The implications of this still haven’t been taken in. Lethal for Tories.
Reform were more of a problem for the Consertives while Richard Tice was the leader in some seats if the current polling was nailed on, now Nigel Farage is the leader its become a far bigger problem for the Labour party under Keir Starmer. Just how many votes will he attract from former Labour voters who switched to UKIP first before going Conservative in 2019 while the narrative is that Labour is so far ahead in the polls they cannot possible lose and its all about whether they can achieve a record breaking majority that beats Tony Blairs result in 1997?
Keep on the hopium Fitalass. That may have been the case in 2019, but that realignment happened. RefUK are all about damaging the Tories now.
Be careful for what you wish for
There is a very real prospect that Farage will win his Clacton seat and post election a merger happens with the remaining conservatives and he becomes leader of the opposition
This has to be labours worst nightmare with Starmer facing Farage every week and the polarisation of our politics
This cannot, cannot, cannot be repeated often enough: Reform will hit harder than polls suggest because they weren’t on the ballot last time in vast majority of Tory seats, and they will now in all of them. The implications of this still haven’t been taken in. Lethal for Tories.
Reform were more of a problem for the Consertives while Richard Tice was the leader in some seats if the current polling was nailed on, now Nigel Farage is the leader its become a far bigger problem for the Labour party under Keir Starmer. Just how many votes will he attract from former Labour voters who switched to UKIP first before going Conservative in 2019 while the narrative is that Labour is so far ahead in the polls they cannot possible lose and its all about whether they can achieve a record breaking majority that beats Tony Blairs result in 1997?
Keep on the hopium Fitalass. That may have been the case in 2019, but that realignment happened. RefUK are all about damaging the Tories now.
Even if Farage does take votes equally from both parties, the effect is different.
For Labour, it's annoying.
For the Conservatives, it's possibly fatal, because they are already so close to the FPTP cliff edge.
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
I'm struggling to see how a majority Labour government with a polarising figure like Farage as LOTO would be a worst nightmare for anyone other than the Conservative Party.
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Mr. Monksfield, but the working class/Red Wall types had already abandoned the Conservative, no?
I do agree Farage/Reform's a bigger problem overall for the blues than the reds, but there's a lot more voters willing to shift from Labour, just because their polling's so high. Anyone still voting Conservatives is likely to be the core vote.
It's only one poll, and that with changed methodology, but with the declining Tory vote share I do wonder what "core vote" really means.
In any case, I think the Tories abandoned their core vote some time back when they jettisoned Tory Remainers and One Nation Conservatives to pursue socially divisive right wing populism. Once that goes to Reform they have very little left.
Mr. Monksfield, but the working class/Red Wall types had already abandoned the Conservative, no?
I do agree Farage/Reform's a bigger problem overall for the blues than the reds, but there's a lot more voters willing to shift from Labour, just because their polling's so high. Anyone still voting Conservatives is likely to be the core vote.
The voters Labour’s poll,lead is built on, younger, more educated, working, female, are not the demographic types who are attracted by the dubious, simplist charms of St Nigel of The White Cliffs.
Listening to Today focus group in the Weald of Kent constituency yesterday was informative. Young Mums who were clearly not going to be voting Tory.
I really think a 15-20% share for RefUK may presage the ELE for the Tories.
Jeremy Hunt speaks up and it's like a breath of fresh air The evidence of Britain is that elections are always won from the centre ground and I think in a two-party system that will always be the case. We’ll always be a broad church, and I think that’s a good thing.
There it is. The Conservative Party is still in there somewhere. They missed a trick in not making him leader. Too late now, just another of history's "what if"s.
Trouble is that the Lib Dems have often tried being the centre party. It's not won them any elections. You need a large base of voters to win elections. Being on the centre won't guarantee you that.
The LD's have always done best electorally, since the 1990's, when they have been seen to be slightly to the left of Labour, a lesson they will probably have to relearn all over again under Starmer, and challenging any of his more authoritarian policies, as they did under Blair.
Davey will have to shift his stance a little, but that he's surprised me on the upside in this election so far.
That was before the Greens though - LDs tried it in 2019 and lost their leader! The space is a liberal centre-right party if the tories go as cuckoo as it expected.
An economically centre right, pro EU and socially liberal party was the LDs led by Clegg in 2015, it got 7.9% of the vote and 8 MPs
Also worth pointing out that if the Tories continue to Tory and LDs end up as the official opposition it's a once in a lifetime chance to displace the Tories - if they put forward a sensible centre-right platform while Reform take over the Tories come 2029 they may remain the OO.
If the LDs put forward a centre right platform they lose their SDP, social democratic wing to Labour or even the Greens and are back under 10% again as in 2015 with no Labour tactical votes for them either in their target seats.
They won't become the OO on that. The only party that could replace the Tories as the OO to Starmer Labour is a party led by Farage, as around 30%+ will vote for a socially conservative, pro Brexit, rightwing party
I don't think the left/right axis is very meaningful anymore to British politics. What defines a party more is its attitude to internal democracy, individual liberty and authoritarianism.
That's why LDs can appeal to the free enterprise right, a group repelled by Brexit protectionism, while still appealing to Greens by being decentralised. It is a space between the authoritarian centralising philosophy of Labour and the reactionary social conservatism, culture war and Autarky of Reform and Conservatives.
It isn't a vast space as most Britons don't really value freedom, and prefer the smack of firm government,, but it is one that spreads well outside of current LD support, particularly to one nation Conservatives.
Voters who are pro free enterprise, pro low taxes and small state, pro immigration and socially liberal amount to 10% of the electorate at most. That is the brutal electoral reality.
There might be a market for a party with such an approach under PR, under FPTP it would get steamrollered by Labour and the Reform/Conservative main block
10% here, 10% there and soon you're winning elections.
Under FPTP the Conservatives win as a big tent which include pro free enterprise, low tax etc right wingers.
Without us, you lose and get steamrollered by Labour.
As you're going to see this year.
You speak as if you are the only group they have alienated?
There’s nothing special about you lot. Join the queue.
Oddly enough, I think that's the group they've least alienated! And HYUFD is right - if you look at the research, socially liberal/economically right people are very rare.
Middle Britons (average voter) > Labour Traditional (Rich, socially conservative) > Reform Apolitical centrists (right economics, central socially, young) > Labour/Lib Dem Left-behind patriots (economically left, socially right) > Reform
Urban progressives (yoga, coffee, cycling) > Green (from Labour) Soft-left (liberal social, centrist economics) > Stick with Labour/Lib Dem
Where on earth do the Conservatives fit in there?
Three groups.
The big one is retired homeowners. See pension locks, NIMBYism and fear of social change.
The next is People Like Rishi- the very top few percent of the income distribution who want their tax minimised and are insulated from the state of public services.
Then there are ancestral Conservatives. Who don't like what has become of the party but can't face the ghosts of their dead, decent Tory relatives.
It's been a problem for a while. In 2019, it was rather hidden by the fear of Corbyn and the lack of Reform candidates. Neither of which applies now.
I'm struggling to see how a majority Labour government with a polarising figure like Farage as LOTO would be a worst nightmare for anyone other than the Conservative Party.
There wouldn't be a conservative party as you know it
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Every voter? Right, that's me decided. I won't vote
Mr. Monksfield, but the working class/Red Wall types had already abandoned the Conservative, no?
I do agree Farage/Reform's a bigger problem overall for the blues than the reds, but there's a lot more voters willing to shift from Labour, just because their polling's so high. Anyone still voting Conservatives is likely to be the core vote.
The voters Labour’s poll,lead is built on, younger, more educated, working, female, are not the demographic types who are attracted by the dubious, simplist charms of St Nigel of The White Cliffs.
Listening to Today focus group in the Weald of Kent constituency yesterday was informative. Young Mums who were clearly not going to be voting Tory.
I really think a 15-20% share for RefUK may presage the ELE for the Tories.
Reform need to stop being a single issue party and address the costs of living, that could see them picking up votes.
This cannot, cannot, cannot be repeated often enough: Reform will hit harder than polls suggest because they weren’t on the ballot last time in vast majority of Tory seats, and they will now in all of them. The implications of this still haven’t been taken in. Lethal for Tories.
Reform were more of a problem for the Consertives while Richard Tice was the leader in some seats if the current polling was nailed on, now Nigel Farage is the leader its become a far bigger problem for the Labour party under Keir Starmer. Just how many votes will he attract from former Labour voters who switched to UKIP first before going Conservative in 2019 while the narrative is that Labour is so far ahead in the polls they cannot possible lose and its all about whether they can achieve a record breaking majority that beats Tony Blairs result in 1997?
Keep on the hopium Fitalass. That may have been the case in 2019, but that realignment happened. RefUK are all about damaging the Tories now.
Be careful for what you wish for
There is a very real prospect that Farage will win his Clacton seat and post election a merger happens with the remaining conservatives and he becomes leader of the opposition
This has to be labours worst nightmare with Starmer facing Farage every week and the polarisation of our politics
Unless the Tories end up in the situation I’m betting on (I.e, less than 5o seats) why would the Tory party let Nigel merge with it. That makes zero sense - he’s a one subject pony albeit a subject that creates huge problems for the Tories
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Every voter? Right, that's me decided. I won't vote
Mr. Monksfield, but the working class/Red Wall types had already abandoned the Conservative, no?
I do agree Farage/Reform's a bigger problem overall for the blues than the reds, but there's a lot more voters willing to shift from Labour, just because their polling's so high. Anyone still voting Conservatives is likely to be the core vote.
It's only one poll, and that with changed methodology, but with the declining Tory vote share I do wonder what "core vote" really means.
In any case, I think the Tories abandoned their core vote some time back when they jettisoned Tory Remainers and One Nation Conservatives to pursue socially divisive right wing populism. Once that goes to Reform they have very little left.
I find it very hard to believe that the blue hoards than rise each five years from their slumber will not turn out for the Tories as they have done for last few decades.
Obviously the SNP, Labour experience in 2015 demonstrates that wipeouts can happen in the U.K. , but it’s very hard to see it happening to the Tories.
Sunak is a terrible leader, Milliband but without the grit, charm or star power.
This cannot, cannot, cannot be repeated often enough: Reform will hit harder than polls suggest because they weren’t on the ballot last time in vast majority of Tory seats, and they will now in all of them. The implications of this still haven’t been taken in. Lethal for Tories.
Reform were more of a problem for the Consertives while Richard Tice was the leader in some seats if the current polling was nailed on, now Nigel Farage is the leader its become a far bigger problem for the Labour party under Keir Starmer. Just how many votes will he attract from former Labour voters who switched to UKIP first before going Conservative in 2019 while the narrative is that Labour is so far ahead in the polls they cannot possible lose and its all about whether they can achieve a record breaking majority that beats Tony Blairs result in 1997?
Keep on the hopium Fitalass. That may have been the case in 2019, but that realignment happened. RefUK are all about damaging the Tories now.
Be careful for what you wish for
There is a very real prospect that Farage will win his Clacton seat and post election a merger happens with the remaining conservatives and he becomes leader of the opposition
This has to be labours worst nightmare with Starmer facing Farage every week and the polarisation of our politics
Unless the Tories end up in the situation I’m betting on (I.e, less than 5o seats) why would the Tory party let Nigel merge with it. That makes zero sense - he’s a one subject pony albeit a subject that creates huge problems for the Tories
Not sure anything is making sense in politics at present
We even have a labour First Minister refusing to resign when losing a vonc here in Wales
I'm struggling to see how a majority Labour government with a polarising figure like Farage as LOTO would be a worst nightmare for anyone other than the Conservative Party.
There wouldn't be a conservative party as you know it
It would be a mirror image of the early 1980s, and after that there wasn't a change of government for 16 years.
Biden has drifted out to 1.18 for the Democratic Nomination and may even hit 1.2.
Utterly absurd. All the primaries and caucuses are over on Saturday. He's got north or 87% of the vote and virtually all the delegates. This drift can only be explained by the belief that if the Reps ditch Trump the previous month at theirs, that he'll be ditched and bow out too. Wrong on both counts. Otherwise it's a bet he lives another 78 days.
I've topped up. Much better value than Labour OM, now, IMHO.
Mr. Monksfield, but the working class/Red Wall types had already abandoned the Conservative, no?
I do agree Farage/Reform's a bigger problem overall for the blues than the reds, but there's a lot more voters willing to shift from Labour, just because their polling's so high. Anyone still voting Conservatives is likely to be the core vote.
It's only one poll, and that with changed methodology, but with the declining Tory vote share I do wonder what "core vote" really means.
In any case, I think the Tories abandoned their core vote some time back when they jettisoned Tory Remainers and One Nation Conservatives to pursue socially divisive right wing populism. Once that goes to Reform they have very little left.
I find it very hard to believe that the blue hoards than rise each five years from their slumber will not turn out for the Tories as they have done for last few decades.
Obviously the SNP, Labour experience in 2015 demonstrates that wipeouts can happen in the U.K. , but it’s very hard to see it happening to the Tories.
Sunak is a terrible leader, Milliband but without the grit, charm or star power.
DRoss has called an emergency press conference down in Edinburgh - c. 10am. Speculation that it related to the brutal ousting of Duguid.
Three options: 1) We're getting someone tired and previously ousted like Findlater 2) We're getting DRoss - who has seen the Holdenator terminate the Tory vote in Basildon and wants a go himself 3) We're getting BORIS
DRoss has called an emergency press conference down in Edinburgh - c. 10am. Speculation that it related to the brutal ousting of Duguid.
Three options: 1) We're getting someone tired and previously ousted like Findlater 2) We're getting DRoss - who has seen the Holdenator terminate the Tory vote in Basildon and wants a go himself 3) We're getting BORIS
Mr. Monksfield, but the working class/Red Wall types had already abandoned the Conservative, no?
I do agree Farage/Reform's a bigger problem overall for the blues than the reds, but there's a lot more voters willing to shift from Labour, just because their polling's so high. Anyone still voting Conservatives is likely to be the core vote.
It's only one poll, and that with changed methodology, but with the declining Tory vote share I do wonder what "core vote" really means.
In any case, I think the Tories abandoned their core vote some time back when they jettisoned Tory Remainers and One Nation Conservatives to pursue socially divisive right wing populism. Once that goes to Reform they have very little left.
I find it very hard to believe that the blue hoards than rise each five years from their slumber will not turn out for the Tories as they have done for last few decades.
Obviously the SNP, Labour experience in 2015 demonstrates that wipeouts can happen in the U.K. , but it’s very hard to see it happening to the Tories.
Sunak is a terrible leader, Milliband but without the grit, charm or star power.
Only 4 weeks to go thankfully
My goodness it’s a slog. We could have cut to the chase some time ago.
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
It is just nonsense. The Tories were fine after Brexit and were riding high in the polls. What screwed them was Johnson's COVID shenanigans and the disastrous Truss budget. The Eurofanatics want to blame everything in Brexit. They still can't accept that the UK has had better economic growth and unemploymemt than the EU since we fully Brexited.
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
It is just nonsense. The Tories were fine after Brexit and were riding high in the polls. What screwed them was Johnson's COVID shenanigans and the disastrous Truss budget. The Eurofanatics want to blame everything in Brexit. They still can't accept that the UK has had better economic growth and unemploymemt than the EU since we fully Brexited.
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Quite possible, given the precedent our current government has just set.
The average household is paying £3,500 more in tax now than in 2019. The biggest tax raising parliament in UK history.
And I don’t blame the Tories for doing this. They probably should have raised more. Our public infrastructure, services and local government are on their knees after years of no investment.
I'm struggling to see how a majority Labour government with a polarising figure like Farage as LOTO would be a worst nightmare for anyone other than the Conservative Party.
There wouldn't be a conservative party as you know it
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Quite possible, given the precedent our current government has just set.
The average household is paying £3,500 more in tax now than in 2019. The biggest tax raising parliament in UK history.
And I don’t blame the Tories for doing this. They probably should have raised more. Our public infrastructure, services and local government are on their knees after years of no investment.
Or were raising record taxes but spending it on the wrong things.
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
It is just nonsense. The Tories were fine after Brexit and were riding high in the polls. What screwed them was Johnson's COVID shenanigans and the disastrous Truss budget. The Eurofanatics want to blame everything in Brexit. They still can't accept that the UK has had better economic growth and unemploymemt than the EU since we fully Brexited.
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Quite possible, given the precedent our current government has just set.
The average household is paying £3,500 more in tax now than in 2019. The biggest tax raising parliament in UK history.
And I don’t blame the Tories for doing this. They probably should have raised more. Our public infrastructure, services and local government are on their knees after years of no investment.
@ConnorGillies Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has called an emergency press conference to deliver an ‘announcement’ regarding the general election.
Interesting, from his point of view dissociating the Scottish Tories from the rest of the party would probably be beneficial in the long term. Move to a CDU/CSU type arrangement. It’s probably a lot more boring than that though.
Indy for SCons! More likely to be about Duguid & his replacement I imagine. Besides, what would various SCon leaders do without having to blindly support Conservative leaders and policies (Brexit, Boris, Truss) only to reverse ferret on them when they prove disastrous? Their heads might explode if they had to revert to consistent principle.
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Quite possible, given the precedent our current government has just set.
The average household is paying £3,500 more in tax now than in 2019. The biggest tax raising parliament in UK history.
And I don’t blame the Tories for doing this. They probably should have raised more. Our public infrastructure, services and local government are on their knees after years of no investment.
Or were raising record taxes but spending it on the wrong things.
What would CoE Alanbrooke have stopped spending money on?
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
It is just nonsense. The Tories were fine after Brexit and were riding high in the polls. What screwed them was Johnson's COVID shenanigans and the disastrous Truss budget. The Eurofanatics want to blame everything in Brexit. They still can't accept that the UK has had better economic growth and unemploymemt than the EU since we fully Brexited.
Former French President Francois Hollande was interviewed on Sky yesterday and affirmed that there is no way the EU will reopen negotiations for UK to rejoin
This is the point for those who want to rejoin, the EU doesn't want us back
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
It is just nonsense. The Tories were fine after Brexit and were riding high in the polls. What screwed them was Johnson's COVID shenanigans and the disastrous Truss budget. The Eurofanatics want to blame everything in Brexit. They still can't accept that the UK has had better economic growth and unemploymemt than the EU since we fully Brexited.
Former French President Francois Hollande was interviewed on Sky yesterday and affirmed that there is no way the EU will reopen negotiations for UK to rejoin
This is the point for those who want to rejoin, the EU doesn't want us back
Who cares, we can rejoin the Customs Union and other initiatives to undo the frother damage.
Mr. Monksfield, but the working class/Red Wall types had already abandoned the Conservative, no?
I do agree Farage/Reform's a bigger problem overall for the blues than the reds, but there's a lot more voters willing to shift from Labour, just because their polling's so high. Anyone still voting Conservatives is likely to be the core vote.
The voters Labour’s poll,lead is built on, younger, more educated, working, female, are not the demographic types who are attracted by the dubious, simplist charms of St Nigel of The White Cliffs.
Listening to Today focus group in the Weald of Kent constituency yesterday was informative. Young Mums who were clearly not going to be voting Tory.
I really think a 15-20% share for RefUK may presage the ELE for the Tories.
Reform need to stop being a single issue party and address the costs of living, that could see them picking up votes.
No, they should stick to immigration. Its what their voters want. In any case the rest of their policies are as daft as Binfaces.
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Quite possible, given the precedent our current government has just set.
The average household is paying £3,500 more in tax now than in 2019. The biggest tax raising parliament in UK history.
And I don’t blame the Tories for doing this. They probably should have raised more. Our public infrastructure, services and local government are on their knees after years of no investment.
Or were raising record taxes but spending it on the wrong things.
What would CoE Alanbrooke have stopped spending money on?
Woke diversity consultants in the NHS?
That’ll save a whole £30,000 a year. I wonder where the other billions are coming from!
Baillie Gifford prepares to withdraw funding from all book festivals Investment firm may cease all sponsorship after threats of boycotts from authors and protests by activists over its alleged links to fossil fuels and Israel
What public services do the Tories plan to cut to fund the gaps on their own spending plans?
Spending plans which, as always, assume fuel duty will be unfrozen (yeah right).
The Tories are an entirely known entity. There will be a tax threshold freeze and spending restraint in pay and in CSR.
Labour are not.
Yes. The Tories are known for increasing taxes, borrowing like there's no tomorrow, while simultaneously screwing over public services and allowing millions to come to the UK.
What public services do the Tories plan to cut to fund the gaps on their own spending plans?
Spending plans which, as always, assume fuel duty will be unfrozen (yeah right).
The Tories are an entirely known entity. There will be a tax threshold freeze and spending restraint in pay and in CSR.
Labour are not.
Tories promised tax cuts last time, but delivered the highest tax burden in history. A known entity.
I suspect Labour, if they get in, will take a similar approach to Labour 97-01, working within tight constraints aiming to make work pay for the less well off.
I understand the anger towards Sunak who has damaged the Party almost beyond repair and all but guaranteed the majority of his MPs will lose their job next month. But it’s hard to muster much sympathy given that none of this would have happened without the complicity of a majority of the Party & what is now unfolding was entirely predictable- indeed predicted. The hope is that when Sunak disappears off to California in a few weeks there are at least some decent MPs left around which to rebuild 🤞🙏🤞"
Goldsmith is utterly deluded if he thinks this is all on Sunak. The Tory party has collectively been high on its own propaganda for the last 10 years. Until they start engaging with real people’s daily concerns they’ll be toast.
And hint, I can say as a resident of South Shropshire that immigration and trans stuff are not top of my list of concerns. Important, especially the former but no more so than public services, climate change and the rebuttal of fascist dictatorships.
Er... I'm no supporter of Goldsmith but that's exactly what he's not saying. As he points out: "...none of this would have happened without the complicity of a majority of the Party.."
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
It is just nonsense. The Tories were fine after Brexit and were riding high in the polls. What screwed them was Johnson's COVID shenanigans and the disastrous Truss budget. The Eurofanatics want to blame everything in Brexit. They still can't accept that the UK has had better economic growth and unemploymemt than the EU since we fully Brexited.
Former French President Francois Hollande was interviewed on Sky yesterday and affirmed that there is no way the EU will reopen negotiations for UK to rejoin
This is the point for those who want to rejoin, the EU doesn't want us back
I think they would ultimately allow us to rejoin. The problem with rejoiner faction is their underlying assumption that we can rejoin on exactly the same terms as we left. That is never going to happen, and the terms we would get might not be ones that a majority would want to agree to.
The problem with rejoiner faction is their underlying assumption that we can rejoin on exactly the same terms as we left. That is never going to happen, and the terms we would get might not be ones that a majority would want to agree to.
I don't think either of those statements is true.
I don't think we would rejoin on the same terms.
I don't think different terms can never have majority support.
Mr. Monksfield, but the working class/Red Wall types had already abandoned the Conservative, no?
I do agree Farage/Reform's a bigger problem overall for the blues than the reds, but there's a lot more voters willing to shift from Labour, just because their polling's so high. Anyone still voting Conservatives is likely to be the core vote.
The voters Labour’s poll,lead is built on, younger, more educated, working, female, are not the demographic types who are attracted by the dubious, simplist charms of St Nigel of The White Cliffs.
Listening to Today focus group in the Weald of Kent constituency yesterday was informative. Young Mums who were clearly not going to be voting Tory.
I really think a 15-20% share for RefUK may presage the ELE for the Tories.
Though I don't think they will poll even half that in 4 weeks time.
Famagusta parties have always had a low ceiling of support. Even in their heyday and strongest seats they struggled to break 20%.
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
It is just nonsense. The Tories were fine after Brexit and were riding high in the polls. What screwed them was Johnson's COVID shenanigans and the disastrous Truss budget. The Eurofanatics want to blame everything in Brexit. They still can't accept that the UK has had better economic growth and unemploymemt than the EU since we fully Brexited.
Former French President Francois Hollande was interviewed on Sky yesterday and affirmed that there is no way the EU will reopen negotiations for UK to rejoin
This is the point for those who want to rejoin, the EU doesn't want us back
Well that's his opinion and he's entitled to it but in the unlikely event the UK did ask to rejoin, I doubt it would carry much weight. It's a moot point however because it's unlikely to happen in our lifetimes - we've cut off our nose and we can't just stick it back on.
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
It is just nonsense. The Tories were fine after Brexit and were riding high in the polls. What screwed them was Johnson's COVID shenanigans and the disastrous Truss budget. The Eurofanatics want to blame everything in Brexit. They still can't accept that the UK has had better economic growth and unemploymemt than the EU since we fully Brexited.
Former French President Francois Hollande was interviewed on Sky yesterday and affirmed that there is no way the EU will reopen negotiations for UK to rejoin
This is the point for those who want to rejoin, the EU doesn't want us back
I think they would ultimately allow us to rejoin. The problem with rejoiner faction is their underlying assumption that we can rejoin on exactly the same terms as we left. That is never going to happen, and the terms we would get might not be ones that a majority would want to agree to.
I can see EEA membership but not rejoin, but I wonder what a rejoin referendum result would be. That would be the way to do it. Follow the Brexit precedent.
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
It is just nonsense. The Tories were fine after Brexit and were riding high in the polls. What screwed them was Johnson's COVID shenanigans and the disastrous Truss budget. The Eurofanatics want to blame everything in Brexit. They still can't accept that the UK has had better economic growth and unemploymemt than the EU since we fully Brexited.
Former French President Francois Hollande was interviewed on Sky yesterday and affirmed that there is no way the EU will reopen negotiations for UK to rejoin
This is the point for those who want to rejoin, the EU doesn't want us back
I think they would ultimately allow us to rejoin. The problem with rejoiner faction is their underlying assumption that we can rejoin on exactly the same terms as we left. That is never going to happen, and the terms we would get might not be ones that a majority would want to agree to.
I can see EEA membership but not rejoin, but I wonder what a rejoin referendum result would be. That would be the way to do it. Follow the Brexit precedent.
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Quite possible, given the precedent our current government has just set.
The average household is paying £3,500 more in tax now than in 2019. The biggest tax raising parliament in UK history.
And I don’t blame the Tories for doing this. They probably should have raised more. Our public infrastructure, services and local government are on their knees after years of no investment.
The political problem for the country is that the Tories did this without being honest about it, and without making the case to the public about why it should be supported. Instead they trumpeted tax cuts and futile attempts to compensate people for inflation.
It's impossible to have any meaningful political debate in the context of such fundamental dishonesty. I think that the government was largely right to spend a lot of money supporting the economy through the pandemic, but it now needs to be paid for.
Starmer and Reeves have not done as good a job as Cameron and Osborne did in laying the blame for the current situation at the feet of three government, or preparing the ground for unpleasant choices to come. They will come a cropper as a result if they don't rapidly turn that around in year one of their government.
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
It is just nonsense. The Tories were fine after Brexit and were riding high in the polls. What screwed them was Johnson's COVID shenanigans and the disastrous Truss budget. The Eurofanatics want to blame everything in Brexit. They still can't accept that the UK has had better economic growth and unemploymemt than the EU since we fully Brexited.
Former French President Francois Hollande was interviewed on Sky yesterday and affirmed that there is no way the EU will reopen negotiations for UK to rejoin
This is the point for those who want to rejoin, the EU doesn't want us back
Sure, it's a long road back, and the best approach is the LD one of rejoining slowly by individual measure and programme. There is a need to establish positive relations before any formal bid to Rejoin can be started.
The obliteration of the Tory party will help improve relations in itself.
Mr. Jonathan, depends on the terms. A Ctrl+Z undo type rejoin would be way easier than the probable new terms (Schengen opt-out would likely remain, but contributions would be without a rebate and the path to Euro membership, or even joining ASAP would be likely involved).
The problem with rejoiner faction is their underlying assumption that we can rejoin on exactly the same terms as we left. That is never going to happen, and the terms we would get might not be ones that a majority would want to agree to.
I don't think either of those statements is true.
I don't think we would rejoin on the same terms.
I don't think different terms can never have majority support.
Agreed. I think we would have to join the Euro and Schengen. I doubt the country's ready for that yet but in 20 years time maybe?
Mr. Jonathan, depends on the terms. A Ctrl+Z undo type rejoin would be way easier than the probable new terms (Schengen opt-out would likely remain, but contributions would be without a rebate and the path to Euro membership, or even joining ASAP would be likely involved).
The Brexit precedent was establish the mandate to rejoin first and then negotiate the details.
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Quite possible, given the precedent our current government has just set.
The average household is paying £3,500 more in tax now than in 2019. The biggest tax raising parliament in UK history.
And I don’t blame the Tories for doing this. They probably should have raised more. Our public infrastructure, services and local government are on their knees after years of no investment.
Or were raising record taxes but spending it on the wrong things.
What would CoE Alanbrooke have stopped spending money on?
Woke diversity consultants in the NHS?
I answered this yesterday - some examples
Major cutback on Quangos theres £82billion to go at Restructure the BoE debt No new IT projects for the duration of parliament - they always overrun Reform MoD procurement for more value for money Restore public sector productivity instead of losing 2% a year
The government spends £1200 billion a year. If youre saying you couldnt find efficiencies in that sum then stay away from management.
If you dont actively go looking for savings you wont find them.
And just to finish off some of the savings need to be put back in to spending on issues like infrastructure which longer term create further savings through productivity
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Quite possible, given the precedent our current government has just set.
The average household is paying £3,500 more in tax now than in 2019. The biggest tax raising parliament in UK history.
And I don’t blame the Tories for doing this. They probably should have raised more. Our public infrastructure, services and local government are on their knees after years of no investment.
That's down to Covid and the interest rate spikes to fight inflation. Don't forget that.
Look at the forecasts for budget balance beforehand, in 2019.
Mr. Jonathan, it'd be different rejoining, however, because that would require the EU to also be in favour, and they would, presumably, need to know what they'd be in favour of.
I do agree with what I think you're implying, namely that a concrete approach should've been taken by the official Leave campaign for the sake of clarity, but there we are.
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
It is just nonsense. The Tories were fine after Brexit and were riding high in the polls. What screwed them was Johnson's COVID shenanigans and the disastrous Truss budget. The Eurofanatics want to blame everything in Brexit. They still can't accept that the UK has had better economic growth and unemploymemt than the EU since we fully Brexited.
Former French President Francois Hollande was interviewed on Sky yesterday and affirmed that there is no way the EU will reopen negotiations for UK to rejoin
This is the point for those who want to rejoin, the EU doesn't want us back
I think they would ultimately allow us to rejoin. The problem with rejoiner faction is their underlying assumption that we can rejoin on exactly the same terms as we left. That is never going to happen, and the terms we would get might not be ones that a majority would want to agree to.
It's a case of timing isn't it? The EU will not just open negotiations if a British government demands it because we think we screwed up and have changed our mind. For the obvious reasons that they have other priorities and the decision to Brexit itself showed an unreliability as a partner in the project.
However, there will be various points in the future where the EU is undergoing a reform and/or enlargement - notably perhaps around security - in which the UK may well be seen as a desirable partner to have involved that may offer an opportunity to de facto rejoin via important structures (and eventually fully do so). If the settled view of the country is still, as it is now, that Brexit was a disastrous folly, then any government that isn't in fierce ideological opposition will look to do so.
Mr. Jonathan, it'd be different rejoining, however, because that would require the EU to also be in favour, and they would, presumably, need to know what they'd be in favour of.
I do agree with what I think you're implying, namely that a concrete approach should've been taken by the official Leave campaign for the sake of clarity, but there we are.
Mr. Jonathan, depends on the terms. A Ctrl+Z undo type rejoin would be way easier than the probable new terms (Schengen opt-out would likely remain, but contributions would be without a rebate and the path to Euro membership, or even joining ASAP would be likely involved).
The Brexit precedent was establish the mandate to rejoin first and then negotiate the details.
True but the Brexit precedent shows we need to do better than that.
What public services do the Tories plan to cut to fund the gaps on their own spending plans?
Spending plans which, as always, assume fuel duty will be unfrozen (yeah right).
The Tories are an entirely known entity. There will be a tax threshold freeze and spending restraint in pay and in CSR.
Labour are not.
The Tories may be many things, but an entirely known entity is definitively not one of them.
I don't think that's true. I think it's pretty clear what they'd do, fiscally, over another 5-year term: I'd expect the tax threshold freeze to end and the structural deficit to be eliminated.
The problem with rejoiner faction is their underlying assumption that we can rejoin on exactly the same terms as we left. That is never going to happen, and the terms we would get might not be ones that a majority would want to agree to.
I don't think either of those statements is true.
I don't think we would rejoin on the same terms.
I don't think different terms can never have majority support.
Agreed. I think we would have to join the Euro and Schengen. I doubt the country's ready for that yet but in 20 years time maybe?
Ah the dreamy days of the continent is cut off without us.
Why is it you never ask if the EU wants the UK back ? All evidence suggests they had enough and rejoining is not on the cards. Well not unless PM Farage can call in a favour from Giorgia Meloni.
The problem with rejoiner faction is their underlying assumption that we can rejoin on exactly the same terms as we left. That is never going to happen, and the terms we would get might not be ones that a majority would want to agree to.
I don't think either of those statements is true.
I don't think we would rejoin on the same terms.
I don't think different terms can never have majority support.
Agreed. I think we would have to join the Euro and Schengen. I doubt the country's ready for that yet but in 20 years time maybe?
The Euro and Schengen are the two best bits. Being in the EU with all the shite but missing out on the benefits - no wonder we voted to leave.
What public services do the Tories plan to cut to fund the gaps on their own spending plans?
Spending plans which, as always, assume fuel duty will be unfrozen (yeah right).
The Tories are an entirely known entity. There will be a tax threshold freeze and spending restraint in pay and in CSR.
Labour are not.
The Tories may be many things, but an entirely known entity is definitively not one of them.
I don't think that's true. I think it's pretty clear what they'd do, fiscally, over another 5-year term: I'd expect the tax threshold freeze to end and the structural deficit to be eliminated.
Tell that to the non doms. For years it would be complete disaster to tax them and wouldn't raise any money anyway. Then......
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Quite possible, given the precedent our current government has just set.
The average household is paying £3,500 more in tax now than in 2019. The biggest tax raising parliament in UK history.
And I don’t blame the Tories for doing this. They probably should have raised more. Our public infrastructure, services and local government are on their knees after years of no investment.
That's down to Covid and the interest rate spikes to fight inflation. Don't forget that.
Look at the forecasts for budget balance beforehand, in 2019.
The energy cap was another major contributor. Martin Lewis is truly an enemy of the people.
But the current fiscal targets are a joke promising to be good one day. The reputation of the Tories for being sound on finance has taken a hell of a dunt in this Parliament and will take quite some time to recover.
I have been trying to book a GP appointment for my son for the last 45 mins. Online system has stopped taking appointments and the phone just keeps on ringing. This is what folks face everyday thanks to the Tories.
The usual right-wing fruit loops on here will continue to pretend there is nothing wrong and still put the x against the Conservatives. I actually pity them as they obviously need some kind of help. At least one of this group, @Leon has called a spade a spade and wants the Tories destroyed. His reasoning is wrong, immigration is not the main issue, it’s the fact that the Tories have completely and utterly Ratnered this country over the last 14 years.
Hopefully they will end up with less 15 seats but my betting position is 100-150 seats.
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Quite possible, given the precedent our current government has just set.
The average household is paying £3,500 more in tax now than in 2019. The biggest tax raising parliament in UK history.
And I don’t blame the Tories for doing this. They probably should have raised more. Our public infrastructure, services and local government are on their knees after years of no investment.
Or were raising record taxes but spending it on the wrong things.
What would CoE Alanbrooke have stopped spending money on?
Woke diversity consultants in the NHS?
I answered this yesterday - some examples
Major cutback on Quangos theres £82billion to go at
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Quite possible, given the precedent our current government has just set.
The average household is paying £3,500 more in tax now than in 2019. The biggest tax raising parliament in UK history.
And I don’t blame the Tories for doing this. They probably should have raised more. Our public infrastructure, services and local government are on their knees after years of no investment.
Or were raising record taxes but spending it on the wrong things.
What would CoE Alanbrooke have stopped spending money on?
Woke diversity consultants in the NHS?
I answered this yesterday - some examples
Major cutback on Quangos theres £82billion to go at Restructure the BoE debt No new IT projects for the duration of parliament - they always overrun Reform MoD procurement for more value for money Restore public sector productivity instead of losing 2% a year
The government spends £1200 billion a year. If youre saying you couldnt find efficiencies in that sum then stay away from management.
If you dont actively go looking for savings you wont find them.
And just to finish off some of the savings need to be put back in to spending on issues like infrastructure which longer term create further savings through productivity
Total airy-fairy nonsense. With the exception of 'No new IT projects' those are all on a par with Sunak's 'cracking down on tax avoidance and evasion'. Taking Quangos for example, you need to list all the quangos that are going to be cut, how much each will save, and what, if any, downsides there are.
The problem with rejoiner faction is their underlying assumption that we can rejoin on exactly the same terms as we left. That is never going to happen, and the terms we would get might not be ones that a majority would want to agree to.
I don't think either of those statements is true.
I don't think we would rejoin on the same terms.
I don't think different terms can never have majority support.
I didn’t say that fresh terms couldn’t garner a majority simply that it wasn’t a given. I do think a lot of those in favour of rejoining operate on the assumption that it would be essentially turning the clock back, that to me at least kind of implies an underlying assumption that you rejoin exactly as you left. Obviously there will be subtle differences within the grouping. Whilst we were still members there were those who wanted us to join the Euro and abandon opt outs etc.
I voted Remain not because I thought brexit intrinsically bad, but because I suspected it would be harder to achieve than leading Brexiteers were willing to accept. I would start from a position of rejecting rejoin because likewise I think it’s trickier than is being assumed.
The opinions of a single aged French political has been are totally irrelevant. Recent opinion poll of the German population showed that the Germans are strongly in favour of the UK rejoining the EU.
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Quite possible, given the precedent our current government has just set.
The average household is paying £3,500 more in tax now than in 2019. The biggest tax raising parliament in UK history.
And I don’t blame the Tories for doing this. They probably should have raised more. Our public infrastructure, services and local government are on their knees after years of no investment.
Or were raising record taxes but spending it on the wrong things.
What would CoE Alanbrooke have stopped spending money on?
@ConnorGillies Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has called an emergency press conference to deliver an ‘announcement’ regarding the general election.
I have been trying to book a GP appointment for my son for the last 45 mins. Online system has stopped taking appointments and the phone just keeps on ringing. This is what folks face everyday thanks to the Tories.
The usual right-wing fruit loops on here will continue to pretend there is nothing wrong and still put the x against the Conservatives. I actually pity them as they obviously need some kind of help. At least one of this group, @Leon has called a spade a spade and wants the Tories destroyed. His reasoning is wrong, immigration is not the main issue, it’s the fact that the Tories have completely and utterly Ratnered this country over the last 14 years.
Hopefully they will end up with less 15 seats but my betting position is 100-150 seats.
Brilliantly put and understood by 95% of British people but about 50% of political betting users
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
It is just nonsense. The Tories were fine after Brexit and were riding high in the polls. What screwed them was Johnson's COVID shenanigans and the disastrous Truss budget. The Eurofanatics want to blame everything in Brexit. They still can't accept that the UK has had better economic growth and unemploymemt than the EU since we fully Brexited.
Former French President Francois Hollande was interviewed on Sky yesterday and affirmed that there is no way the EU will reopen negotiations for UK to rejoin
This is the point for those who want to rejoin, the EU doesn't want us back
I think they would ultimately allow us to rejoin. The problem with rejoiner faction is their underlying assumption that we can rejoin on exactly the same terms as we left. That is never going to happen, and the terms we would get might not be ones that a majority would want to agree to.
The only terms that might get past the rest of Europe are simple. Join under the current rules as a new entrant.
@hzeffman Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
Perhaps, but Labours going to take £2000 from every voter.
Probably more.
Quite possible, given the precedent our current government has just set.
The average household is paying £3,500 more in tax now than in 2019. The biggest tax raising parliament in UK history.
And I don’t blame the Tories for doing this. They probably should have raised more. Our public infrastructure, services and local government are on their knees after years of no investment.
That's down to Covid and the interest rate spikes to fight inflation. Don't forget that.
Look at the forecasts for budget balance beforehand, in 2019.
The energy cap was another major contributor. Martin Lewis is truly an enemy of the people.
But the current fiscal targets are a joke promising to be good one day. The reputation of the Tories for being sound on finance has taken a hell of a dunt in this Parliament and will take quite some time to recover.
I think maybe 'taken a hell of a dunt' = 'been totally destroyed', and 'take quite some time' = 'never'.
Comments
https://x.com/spikedonline/status/1798396501980246283?s=46
Modern politicians are shameless. Across all parties.
That will likely confirm the Tories took a further 5 million pounds from Hester , not a great look going into the election . The Tories have done more to trash integrity in politics than any other party.
Under FPTP the Conservatives win as a big tent which include pro free enterprise, low tax etc right wingers.
Without us, you lose and get steamrollered by Labour.
As you're going to see this year.
There’s nothing special about you lot. Join the queue.
I would add, Labour's behaviour during the vote yesterday was disgusting. No, it's not because of his skin colour, it's because he's been taking money he shouldn't have.
Just as with Johnson it wasn't his sex life or his policies but his criminal behaviour.
Or with Sturgeon it wasn't transgender rights but police investigations.
Middle Britons (average voter) > Labour
Traditional (Rich, socially conservative) > Reform
Apolitical centrists (right economics, central socially, young) > Labour/Lib Dem
Left-behind patriots (economically left, socially right) > Reform
Urban progressives (yoga, coffee, cycling) > Green (from Labour)
Soft-left (liberal social, centrist economics) > Stick with Labour/Lib Dem
Where on earth do the Conservatives fit in there?
Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has called an emergency press conference to deliver an ‘announcement’ regarding the general election.
Media given two hour warning.
@SkyNews
Breaking: The Conservatives accepted £5 million from the controversial donor Frank Hester's company in January, new Electoral Commission figures show.
It follows £10 million of donations last year
As to VAT on private schools, shame on Ed. Is he going to make my educational business VAT free too?
And hint, I can say as a resident of South Shropshire that immigration and trans stuff are not top of my list of concerns. Important, especially the former but no more so than public services, climate change and the rebuttal of fascist dictatorships.
Tony Benn always referred to two types of political leaders, signposts and weathercocks. Signposts are rooted in something and point the same way regardless, weathercocks point whichever way the wind is blowing. Starmer epitomises the latter. It’s not going to matter much this side of power but if he exhibits the same inclinations in office he will get into serious problems.
Mr. Monksfield, but the working class/Red Wall types had already abandoned the Conservative, no?
I do agree Farage/Reform's a bigger problem overall for the blues than the reds, but there's a lot more voters willing to shift from Labour, just because their polling's so high. Anyone still voting Conservatives is likely to be the core vote.
There is a very real prospect that Farage will win his Clacton seat and post election a merger happens with the remaining conservatives and he becomes leader of the opposition
This has to be labours worst nightmare with Starmer facing Farage every week and the polarisation of our politics
For Labour, it's annoying.
For the Conservatives, it's possibly fatal, because they are already so close to the FPTP cliff edge.
I think the refusal of both parties to mention the B-word in this campaign - for reasons we’ve gone over before - shames them. History will not judge them kindly.
This election will see the revenge of the 48%. They will swing behind Labour/LD, voting tactically to unseat the Tories. A big chunk of the Brexit true believers, the deluded irreconcilables who think the Tories botched Brexit by not doing it properly, will drink the Reform PLC Kool-Aid.
And that eviscerates the Tories.
That’s what the history books will say, I reckon.
Anyway, the Shrimsley piece tickles my fancy. Here’s the conclusion:
https://www.ft.com/content/820de7fe-3ec6-4585-a4ce-c450261b3794
Probably more.
In any case, I think the Tories abandoned their core vote some time back when they jettisoned Tory Remainers and One Nation Conservatives to pursue socially divisive right wing populism. Once that goes to Reform they have very little left.
Listening to Today focus group in the Weald of Kent constituency yesterday was informative. Young Mums who were clearly not going to be voting Tory.
I really think a 15-20% share for RefUK may presage the ELE for the Tories.
The big one is retired homeowners. See pension locks, NIMBYism and fear of social change.
The next is People Like Rishi- the very top few percent of the income distribution who want their tax minimised and are insulated from the state of public services.
Then there are ancestral Conservatives. Who don't like what has become of the party but can't face the ghosts of their dead, decent Tory relatives.
It's been a problem for a while. In 2019, it was rather hidden by the fear of Corbyn and the lack of Reform candidates. Neither of which applies now.
Sad.
Obviously the SNP, Labour experience in 2015 demonstrates that wipeouts can happen in the U.K. , but it’s very hard to see it happening to the Tories.
Sunak is a terrible leader, Milliband but without the grit, charm or star power.
We even have a labour First Minister refusing to resign when losing a vonc here in Wales
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/05/trump-election-interference-in-georgia-paused-indefinitely/
Biden has drifted out to 1.18 for the Democratic Nomination and may even hit 1.2.
Utterly absurd. All the primaries and caucuses are over on Saturday. He's got north or 87% of the vote and virtually all the delegates. This drift can only be explained by the belief that if the Reps ditch Trump the previous month at theirs, that he'll be ditched and bow out too. Wrong on both counts. Otherwise it's a bet he lives another 78 days.
I've topped up. Much better value than Labour OM, now, IMHO.
DYOR.
DRoss has called an emergency press conference down in Edinburgh - c. 10am. Speculation that it related to the brutal ousting of Duguid.
Three options:
1) We're getting someone tired and previously ousted like Findlater
2) We're getting DRoss - who has seen the Holdenator terminate the Tory vote in Basildon and wants a go himself
3) We're getting BORIS
The average household is paying £3,500 more in tax now than in 2019. The biggest tax raising parliament in UK history.
And I don’t blame the Tories for doing this. They probably should have raised more. Our public infrastructure, services and local government are on their knees after years of no investment.
Spending plans which, as always, assume fuel duty will be unfrozen (yeah right).
Besides, what would various SCon leaders do without having to blindly support Conservative leaders and policies (Brexit, Boris, Truss) only to reverse ferret on them when they prove disastrous? Their heads might explode if they had to revert to consistent principle.
Woke diversity consultants in the NHS?
Labour are not.
This is the point for those who want to rejoin, the EU doesn't want us back
Baillie Gifford prepares to withdraw funding from all book festivals
Investment firm may cease all sponsorship after threats of boycotts from authors and protests by activists over its alleged links to fossil fuels and Israel
https://www.thetimes.com/article/c712859f-4052-481f-bee8-217464c45d46?shareToken=58f5995dfc5fb6107206e97ba0cbd7da
You can only be sure with the Conservatives.
I suspect Labour, if they get in, will take a similar approach to Labour 97-01, working within tight constraints aiming to make work pay for the less well off.
It will be 20+ years before they repair their trashed reputation in Britain
I don't think we would rejoin on the same terms.
I don't think different terms can never have majority support.
Famagusta parties have always had a low ceiling of support. Even in their heyday and strongest seats they struggled to break 20%.
It's impossible to have any meaningful political debate in the context of such fundamental dishonesty. I think that the government was largely right to spend a lot of money supporting the economy through the pandemic, but it now needs to be paid for.
Starmer and Reeves have not done as good a job as Cameron and Osborne did in laying the blame for the current situation at the feet of three government, or preparing the ground for unpleasant choices to come. They will come a cropper as a result if they don't rapidly turn that around in year one of their government.
The obliteration of the Tory party will help improve relations in itself.
Major cutback on Quangos theres £82billion to go at
Restructure the BoE debt
No new IT projects for the duration of parliament - they always overrun
Reform MoD procurement for more value for money
Restore public sector productivity instead of losing 2% a year
The government spends £1200 billion a year. If youre saying you couldnt find efficiencies in that sum then stay away from management.
If you dont actively go looking for savings you wont find them.
And just to finish off some of the savings need to be put back in to spending on issues like infrastructure which longer term create further savings through productivity
Look at the forecasts for budget balance beforehand, in 2019.
I do agree with what I think you're implying, namely that a concrete approach should've been taken by the official Leave campaign for the sake of clarity, but there we are.
However, there will be various points in the future where the EU is undergoing a reform and/or enlargement - notably perhaps around security - in which the UK may well be seen as a desirable partner to have involved that may offer an opportunity to de facto rejoin via important structures (and eventually fully do so). If the settled view of the country is still, as it is now, that Brexit was a disastrous folly, then any government that isn't in fierce ideological opposition will look to do so.
Why is it you never ask if the EU wants the UK back ? All evidence suggests they had enough and rejoining is not on the cards. Well not unless PM Farage can call in a favour from Giorgia Meloni.
But the current fiscal targets are a joke promising to be good one day. The reputation of the Tories for being sound on finance has taken a hell of a dunt in this Parliament and will take quite some time to recover.
The usual right-wing fruit loops on here will continue to pretend there is nothing wrong and still put the x against the Conservatives. I actually pity them as they obviously need some kind of help. At least one of this group, @Leon has called a spade a spade and wants the Tories destroyed. His reasoning is wrong, immigration is not the main issue, it’s the fact that the Tories have completely and utterly Ratnered this country over the last 14 years.
Hopefully they will end up with less 15 seats but my betting position is 100-150 seats.
I voted Remain not because I thought brexit intrinsically bad, but because I suspected it would be harder to achieve than leading Brexiteers were willing to accept. I would start from a position of rejecting rejoin because likewise I think it’s trickier than is being assumed.