🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
It's in line with what I am expecting. Most CON supporters would privately take this!
Which party would a young, ambitious, talented person join who has centre type views, sees a whole crowd of the ambitious peers joining Labour, wants to spot a gap in the market for political careers and wants to be MP for a Lincolnshire/southern rural seat? The Tories are currently the only option.
I've no idea about those localities, but if Labour win a landslide (which they won't) I would have thought mostly THEY would be the party for ambitious young non-mouthfoaming rightwingers to join.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
This will probably be the kindest poll for the Conservatives today.
By "kindest", I mean they'll only be slaughtered. Not totally destroyed.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
I'm guessing that implies vote shares of c.42% to 30%.
14 point lead I think Luke said. 42 28 10,000 sample during April and 5000 since GE called to account for changes
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
This will probably be the kindest poll for the Conservatives today.
By "kindest", I mean they'll only be slaughtered. Not totally destroyed.
It's not great is it? I mean it's not quite as bad as 1997 but it's pretty close.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A new centre right party.
If you are aged about 16-late 20s, are interested in a career in politics and want to be ahead of the curve then this - and the next 12-24 months - could be the time to very quietly join the Conservative party and get yourself involved. They have a better chance than any other currently identifiable group of being the political in-crowd in 10-15 years time.
It's known as 'buying on the dips'.
Have you seen Conservative favourability amongst the young, and that is counting the middle aged as young. Can't imagine the oddities who are today's young conservatives as they were truly weird ten+ years ago.
Agree, of course. But unless we enter a one party state we are going to have two parties, and one of them is going to be the successor to Heseltine/Clarke/Thatcher/Patten/Hunt. Let's call it centre right.
Which party would a young, ambitious, talented person join who has centre type views, sees a whole crowd of the ambitious peers joining Labour, wants to spot a gap in the market for political careers and wants to be MP for a Lincolnshire/southern rural seat? The Tories are currently the only option.
Think it already exists - it is called the Labour Party.
Noted. I'm asking the question about a two party state and what is the likely name of the second one.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
I'm guessing that implies vote shares of c.42% to 30%.
14 point lead I think Luke said. 42 28 10,000 sample during April and 5000 since GE called to account for changes
Sorry 43 to 29, which is the highest equal Tory share this year
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
I'm guessing that implies vote shares of c.42% to 30%.
14 point lead I think Luke said. 42 28 10,000 sample during April and 5000 since GE called to account for changes
A bit historic in parts, before the drowned rat launch...
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
This will probably be the kindest poll for the Conservatives today.
By "kindest", I mean they'll only be slaughtered. Not totally destroyed.
It's not great is it? I mean it's not quite as bad as 1997 but it's pretty close.
Feels wildly optimistic for the Conservatives to me.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
This will probably be the kindest poll for the Conservatives today.
By "kindest", I mean they'll only be slaughtered. Not totally destroyed.
If that were the outcome, it would almost feel like a victory, expectations are so low.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
That's far from where the Lib Dems would be hoping to be
Think Farage scents blood and has realised this is a once-in-a-century chance to kill off a major party, similar to what Labour did to the Liberals in the 1920s.
Think Farage scents blood and has realised this is a once-in-a-century chance to kill off a major party, similar to what Labour did to the Liberals in the 1920s.
Nah, this was the plan all along. Pretend everyone is asking him to run etc.
Think Farage scents blood and has realised this is a once-in-a-century chance to kill off a major party, similar to what Labour did to the Liberals in the 1920s.
More like he'll get a few trinkets from the tories like ECHR, etc. in exchange for standing down in a few hundred seats.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
This will probably be the kindest poll for the Conservatives today.
By "kindest", I mean they'll only be slaughtered. Not totally destroyed.
It's not great is it? I mean it's not quite as bad as 1997 but it's pretty close.
Perhaps the comparisons to 1997 have been right all along. I can't help but think that it's being overly generous to the Tories though.
Think Farage scents blood and has realised this is a once-in-a-century chance to kill off a major party, similar to what Labour did to the Liberals in the 1920s.
Or his US horse has been shot and he needs to jump-start his domestic grift.
Think Farage scents blood and has realised this is a once-in-a-century chance to kill off a major party, similar to what Labour did to the Liberals in the 1920s.
7th place in the election is a real possibility for Reform
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A new centre right party.
If you are aged about 16-late 20s, are interested in a career in politics and want to be ahead of the curve then this - and the next 12-24 months - could be the time to very quietly join the Conservative party and get yourself involved. They have a better chance than any other currently identifiable group of being the political in-crowd in 10-15 years time.
It's known as 'buying on the dips'.
Have you seen Conservative favourability amongst the young, and that is counting the middle aged as young. Can't imagine the oddities who are today's young conservatives as they were truly weird ten+ years ago.
Agree, of course. But unless we enter a one party state we are going to have two parties, and one of them is going to be the successor to Heseltine/Clarke/Thatcher/Patten/Hunt. Let's call it centre right.
Which party would a young, ambitious, talented person join who has centre type views, sees a whole crowd of the ambitious peers joining Labour, wants to spot a gap in the market for political careers and wants to be MP for a Lincolnshire/southern rural seat? The Tories are currently the only option.
IF we assume voting patterns are hard to change and the young are disinclined to vote Conservative I'm not sure. I can see your point but to join in the nadir of a party suffering from natural attrition of its voting block seems a gamble for the future SPAD.
It upsets me but I can see the Labour party becoming En Marche like and squatting on the centre. The blowback being an invigorated Conservative-Reform hybrid and an enraged Green-ex Lab coalition.
Lab 538 (+341) Cons 24 (-352) Lib 51 (+43) Ref 0 (0) Green 1 (0) SNP 14 (-34) PC 4 (+2)
I step away from the computer for a couple of hours and the Tories are... well... the words "Stepmom" and "Pornhub" come to mind.
The thing is that Redfield and Wilton poll could be wrong. Very wrong. And it could still be the Tories worst election result essentially since the Tories first existed, something like 28% of the vote and 140 seats.
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A great grandchild of Boris falling off a paddle board c.2124?
What comes next? National Conservatives, Unionist Conservatives, Indpeendent Conservatives, Con-Labs, and a book 'The strange death of Conservative England'.
Has to be a murdered dog somewhere in the mix. Possibly cooked and eaten.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform UK 14% (+1) Liberal Democrat 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Redfield
Yeah at this stage my prediction they wouldn’t sink below 150 seats is looking rocky…
Campaign looks to be focussing minds, but against them.
True enough, but are they really 13% behind with the over 65s? Noone else other than Techne has them losing the grey vote. Redfields age curve is ridiculously flat. That's not to say wrong but I just don't buy it, and it's been consistent with them for weeks.
It seems unlikely, but it's not implausible that my fellow +65s have shifted to Labour a bit. I'm not sure that the Tories are offering that age group much more than Labour are - the unfreezing of the tax allowance for state pensioners is small beer. And for many of us oldies, improving the NHS is the most urgent need.
And, I've said this before but will say it again, many of us oldies vote with our children and grandchildren in mind - not just our own interests. The Tories haven't offered mine much to write home about.
Quite so. Remember those four wordclouds from different age groups. The NHS was top for the oldies.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
I'm guessing that implies vote shares of c.42% to 30%.
14 point lead I think Luke said. 42 28 10,000 sample during April and 5000 since GE called to account for changes
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A new centre right party.
If you are aged about 16-late 20s, are interested in a career in politics and want to be ahead of the curve then this - and the next 12-24 months - could be the time to very quietly join the Conservative party and get yourself involved. They have a better chance than any other currently identifiable group of being the political in-crowd in 10-15 years time.
It's known as 'buying on the dips'.
Or being a Commander in the Royal Navy, with some experience of action, when the Peace of Amiens ends.
Of course, it might turn out to be the equivalent of 1814 instead of 1804.
Just think of this famous cartoon of a young trainee naval officer c. 1816: the joke being that middies had no half pay.
Apparently he orders chicken and chips from Nandos , ok good so far then he says broccoli with it ! Who in their right mind orders broccoli with Nandos .
Is he actually standing to be an MP then? If not, he's not showing much leadership, is he?
Farage to stand!
So every journalist should be asking him why just days ago he was saying he needed 6 months to build a campaign and get all the data. How can voters trust him if he isn’t even consistent from one week to the next? Isn’t he just using the voters of Clacton as padding for his ego etc etc.
This is outstandingly good news for the LibDems. Every percentage point Reform takes off the Tories in the supposed Blue Wall gets the LibDems a percentage point closer to taking the seat.
For Labour it's more of a mixed bag I suspect: Farage will be taking votes from them as well as the Tories.
Apparently he orders chicken and chips from Nandos , ok good so far then he says broccoli with it ! Who in their right mind orders broccoli with Nandos .
Incredible that Labour are pushing on defence and the Tories are pushing on gender reform. The entire framing of the Conservative campaign is wrong. It's not even a core vote strategy any more. There's no strategy. It's a series of wild, random announcements.
My working theory is that current Conservative voters are approx 3x closer to Labour than they are to Reform on social issues.
Any attempt to bag Reform voters using culture war stuff is highly risky. I'd stick with broader economic/demographic factors like inheritance, house values, even a last ditch attempt to defend their record on the NHS (massive increase in spending etc). This is where Conservative and Reform voters are most similar.
I'd have thought one danger would be that Reform might start fighting back - for example by turning the spotlight on the huge rate of legal immigration under the Tories, and condemning the Rwanda scheme as the dishonest gimmick it is.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
I'm guessing that implies vote shares of c.42% to 30%.
14 point lead I think Luke said. 42 28 10,000 sample during April and 5000 since GE called to account for changes
Not sure Farage standing in Clacton makes much difference . The fact he’s now the official head of Reform means he’ll l get even more media attention .
Shaking up the election like this after the Tories have already tried and failed to attract Reform voters could turn out to be a brilliant strategy. Farage has ensured he gets more attention than he otherwise would have done.
This is outstandingly good news for the LibDems. Every percentage point Reform takes off the Tories in the supposed Blue Wall gets the LibDems a percentage point closer to taking the seat.
For Labour it's more of a mixed bag I suspect: Farage will be taking votes from them as well as the Tories.
The biggest (And this makes sense) factor in determining the Lib Dem seat count is the % gap in VI between themselves and the Tories I believe.
Farage to be leader for next five years. His goal is seemingly to destroy the Tory Party.
Worth pointing out that he'll take a few votes off Labour too. But probably not in places where it matters. And even if it does it's not like Labour are looking nervously at whether they can make 325 MPs.
Apparently he orders chicken and chips from Nandos , ok good so far then he says broccoli with it ! Who in their right mind orders broccoli with Nandos .
I think that Farage has picked up on an important point. As the accepted wisdom is now that Starmer has won the Sunak attempts to bully people into voting for him as 'the only alternative to a labour victory' simply do not work. Sunak needs to urgently find something more persuasive to people or he is looking at a very difficult few weeks. Problem is I don't think he knows how to change direction.
So Reform get their Dick out because Farage wants to take part in the 7-way debate proving, if proof were needed, that he is the greatest mass debater in British politics?
Farage returns as Reform UK leader and candidate for Clacton. Clearly the temptation to overtake Sunak's Tories and lead the main party of the right in the UK and main opposition to a likely Starmer government was too much. If he did so, within a decade unless we switched to PR Reform would almost certainly take over the Tory rump under FPTP as its Canadian cousins did to realign the right in a more populist direction in the UK.
Some cynics may also say that Trump's conviction reduced his chances of winning in the US and thus Nigel's chances of a job from the next POTUS but I couldn't possibly comment!
Did I just hear a career politician lambast career politicians and a self-appointed leader of a political party lambast Sunak for not being elected by MPs?! Couldn't make it up!
The assumption Farage as leader is worse for the Tories than Labour is 'brave'. The disgruntled Tories have already jumped. The Kipper Labour vote otoh.......
Long time reader, first time poster. I used to live in Macclesfield. It was certainly Tory through and through then, and hasn't seen significant demographic change since. Its been Tory for over a century. While my own politics would love to see it change hands, I just don't see where that 93% is coming from.
Last locals in 2023 saw a slight Conservative lead, though independents muddy it a bit, some of the largest wards like traditionally Tory Tytherington have resident associations. The town itself returns Labour councillors, but much of the seat is more rural, and includes areas like the millionaires row of Prestbury.
I have bets on the Conservatives at 9/2 in Macclesfield and 6/5 in neighbouring Tatton, a 17,000 majority that is the Cheshire Set all over.
The idea that the Tories are dead is nonsense. Even if the horror show Baxterising comes true, they have thousands of councillors and hundreds of Lords and have been the party of government for 32 of the last 45 years.
They have donors, networks, members, infrastructure. Only five years ago, 14 million people voted for them. They are facing an absolute pasting but not extinction. Not yet, anyway.
Warmest May on record. Being scoffed at on Twitter, but my guess is that the night time temperatures haven't been all that low.
May 1833 had a higher Central England Temperature. Must be Scotland making the difference.
UK figures only go back to 1910, I think. At least in the data series the Met Office use for this. Presumably there's a lack of data coverage and lower confidence in the data quality beforehand.
Us LDs might not (well I think that is pretty certain actually) win the election, but we are having a lot of fun not doing so. We are certainly having a jolly good time in Guildford.
This is outstandingly good news for the LibDems. Every percentage point Reform takes off the Tories in the supposed Blue Wall gets the LibDems a percentage point closer to taking the seat.
For Labour it's more of a mixed bag I suspect: Farage will be taking votes from them as well as the Tories.
Hence Rishi needs a massive IHT cut targeted at bluewall voters, ideally raising the threshold to £2 million. In the redwall though as you say Farage will take some Labour Leave voters as well as Tories to Reform
Do the politicial journalists actually listen to speeches?
Farage spent about 5 minutes explaining the decision for his U-turn (if we believe it or not is another matter). Question from BBC...why did you chance your mind?
Apparently he orders chicken and chips from Nandos , ok good so far then he says broccoli with it ! Who in their right mind orders broccoli with Nandos .
Oof. I actually really like Nando's lemon & garlic broccoli. With chicken thighs, spicy rice, and x-hot sauce, thanks.
Did I just hear a career politician lambast career politicians and a self-appointed leader of a political party lambast Sunak for not being elected by MPs?! Couldn't make it up!
Well quite. Plus this election is about the future of the country not the future of Farage’s ego. Someone in the Tory party should do a clip along the lines of “This election is about you, your hopes, your dreams, whether you get a decent job etc etc don’t let Nigel Farage make this all about him.”
Long time reader, first time poster. I used to live in Macclesfield. It was certainly Tory through and through then, and hasn't seen significant demographic change since. Its been Tory for over a century. While my own politics would love to see it change hands, I just don't see where that 93% is coming from.
Last locals in 2023 saw a slight Conservative lead, though independents muddy it a bit, some of the largest wards like traditionally Tory Tytherington have resident associations. The town itself returns Labour councillors, but much of the seat is more rural, and includes areas like the millionaires row of Prestbury.
I have bets on the Conservatives at 9/2 in Macclesfield and 6/5 in neighbouring Tatton, a 17,000 majority that is the Cheshire Set all over.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
I'm guessing that implies vote shares of c.42% to 30%.
14 point lead I think Luke said. 42 28 10,000 sample during April and 5000 since GE called to account for changes
Luke 42: 28? The Gospel of Luke only has 24 chapters. Did you mean Luke 24: 28? "As they approached the village to which they were going, Jesus continued on as if he were going farther."
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
Tories and Rishi would take that today, a higher seat total than 1997 or 2001 and breathe a sigh of relief.
However that was before Farage's announcement which could make things interesting again
Comments
By "kindest", I mean they'll only be slaughtered. Not totally destroyed.
https://x.com/BNHWalker/status/1797646199652274184
https://x.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1797646074427175221
10,000 sample during April and 5000 since GE called to account for changes
If not, he's not showing much leadership, is he?
In the end most people saying REF in the polls will go back to CON. With some going to LAB
No seats or close 2nds for REF
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/30/termination-shock-cut-in-ship-pollution-sparked-global-heating-spurt
It upsets me but I can see the Labour party becoming En Marche like and squatting on the centre. The blowback being an invigorated Conservative-Reform hybrid and an enraged Green-ex Lab coalition.
END OF THE PIER SHOW!
Don't forget LAB won it in 1997 (then known as Harwich)
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/general-election-2024/mrp/
Fieldwork spread over 7 weeks! This isn't really comparable to other recent polls, then - and, perhaps, is adding more heat than light...
Of course, it might turn out to be the equivalent of 1814 instead of 1804.
Just think of this famous cartoon of a young trainee naval officer c. 1816: the joke being that middies had no half pay.
https://www.rmg.co.uk/collections/objects/rmgc-object-127857
Apparently he orders chicken and chips from Nandos , ok good so far then he says broccoli with it ! Who in their right mind orders broccoli with Nandos .
For Labour it's more of a mixed bag I suspect: Farage will be taking votes from them as well as the Tories.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
I personally find him quite Marmitey. He can be very offputting, and sometimes that matey smarm is pukeworthy. However he is gifted, no doubt about it
Problem is I don't think he knows how to change direction.
Some cynics may also say that Trump's conviction reduced his chances of winning in the US and thus Nigel's chances of a job from the next POTUS but I couldn't possibly comment!
The disgruntled Tories have already jumped. The Kipper Labour vote otoh.......
Last locals in 2023 saw a slight Conservative lead, though independents muddy it a bit, some of the largest wards like traditionally Tory Tytherington have resident associations. The town itself returns Labour councillors, but much of the seat is more rural, and includes areas like the millionaires row of Prestbury.
I have bets on the Conservatives at 9/2 in Macclesfield and 6/5 in neighbouring Tatton, a 17,000 majority that is the Cheshire Set all over.
They have donors, networks, members, infrastructure. Only five years ago, 14 million people voted for them. They are facing an absolute pasting but not extinction. Not yet, anyway.
Farage spent about 5 minutes explaining the decision for his U-turn (if we believe it or not is another matter). Question from BBC...why did you chance your mind?
However … fieldwork 9-29th May. 2/3rds of the fieldwork was before Sunak called the election
And that kind of shows in their estimate of SNP seats at 35. They’d bite your hand off for 35 seats right now imho.
I still think he is hoping to be Trump's UK Ambassador
However that was before Farage's announcement which could make things interesting again