How fascinating that in the end, Brexit utterly destroyed the Conservative party
Yes, they should have taken the hit and let Ed Miliband have a term in government (if it was even coming to that). Instead they atomized themselves and made Nigel Farage king of the world.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
However that was before Farage's announcement which could make things interesting again
Shaking up the election like this after the Tories have already tried and failed to attract Reform voters could turn out to be a brilliant strategy. Farage has ensured he gets more attention than he otherwise would have done.
He’ll be in the media every day attacking the Tories from the right.
Nightmare for Sunak.
Is he allowed his bully pulpit on GB News now he is standing?
Long time reader, first time poster. I used to live in Macclesfield. It was certainly Tory through and through then, and hasn't seen significant demographic change since. Its been Tory for over a century. While my own politics would love to see it change hands, I just don't see where that 93% is coming from.
Last locals in 2023 saw a slight Conservative lead, though independents muddy it a bit, some of the largest wards like traditionally Tory Tytherington have resident associations. The town itself returns Labour councillors, but much of the seat is more rural, and includes areas like the millionaires row of Prestbury.
I have bets on the Conservatives at 9/2 in Macclesfield and 6/5 in neighbouring Tatton, a 17,000 majority that is the Cheshire Set all over.
Welcome! Enjoy. Tatton was, of course held by Martin Bell, The Man in the White Suit, in 1997. When the Conservative was a remarkably dodgy character, and it was a straight fight between him and Bell.
Did I just hear a career politician lambast career politicians and a self-appointed leader of a political party lambast Sunak for not being elected by MPs?! Couldn't make it up!
Well quite. Plus this election is about the future of the country not the future of Farage’s ego. Someone in the Tory party should do a clip along the lines of “This election is about you, your hopes, your dreams, whether you get a decent job etc etc don’t let Nigel Farage make this all about him.”
Well maybe your party shouldn’t have allowed in 2 million migrants in 3 years? Without asking anyone, and against the expressed wishes of every poll on this issue since the year zero? Just a thought
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
I'm guessing that implies vote shares of c.42% to 30%.
14 point lead I think Luke said. 42 28 10,000 sample during April and 5000 since GE called to account for changes
Luke 42: 28? The Gospel of Luke only has 24 chapters. Did you mean Luke 24: 28? "As they approached the village to which they were going, Jesus continued on as if he were going farther."
Do the politicial journalists actually listen to speeches?
Farage spent about 5 minutes explaining the decision for his U-turn (if we believe it or not is another matter). Question from BBC...why did you chance your mind?
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
However that was before Farage's announcement which could make things interesting again
It was before an awful lot of things
9th April to 29th May. Hmmm.
What exactly do you think has changed in the period that the 1/3 of the 15,000 sample taken since the GE was called specifically to ameliorate wouldn't cover?
I wonder what the public reaction would be if the Tories and Reform both ended up with mid to high teens in the general election and the Tories got dozens of seats but reform ended up with nothing.
This is an object lesson for the Tories, not that it makes any difference now. If you try to pander to the right then a) the right hates you; and b) it will fail.
In 18 generations time and a similar situation reoccurs then hopefully they will remember 2024.
I wonder what the public reaction would be if the Tories and Reform both ended up with mid to high teens in the general election and the Tories got dozens of seats but reform ended up with nothing.
15% would be unhappy. 30% would laugh. 45% would be watching the football. 10% wouldn't notice the election or the football.
Shaking up the election like this after the Tories have already tried and failed to attract Reform voters could turn out to be a brilliant strategy. Farage has ensured he gets more attention than he otherwise would have done.
It's lame. Farage's failure to campaign actively since the Truss Debacle shows that he's not interested enough to put the work in to get anywhere. His decision a week ago not to stand was lame. His decision now to change his mind because he's seen how poor the competition is and he wants some attention is pathetically transparent.
The media will be delighted. They will be all over it. They'll give him an enormous boost because they're desperate for something interesting to happen, and so far they've only had Ed Davey falling off a paddle board to work with.
Has it not occurred to you that he’s lying?
That all this is just theatre? Because this is how you get maximum media attention. Say you’re not gonna stand, then call an “emergency press conference” and dramatically change your mind “because the British people are asking me”, and so guarantee the entire election now focuses on Farage
i know, I know. Shocking. A politician lying and playing to the gallery. Surely not! Labour or Tories would NEVER stoop so low
How fascinating that in the end, Brexit utterly destroyed the Conservative party
Yes, they should have taken the hit and let Ed Miliband have a term in government (if it was even coming to that). Instead they atomized themselves and made Nigel Farage king of the world.
Miliband wouldn't have become PM, even without the EU referendum promise Cameron would likely have won most seats even without a majority, fewer LD seats would have been lost too so the LDs may well have kept him in office again.
Though Farage would probably have polled closer to 20% than the 12% he got in 2015 so would still have been a problem
Do the politician journalists actually listen to speeches?
Farage spent about 5 minutes explaining the decision for his U-turn (if we believe it or not is another matter). Question from BBC...why did you chance your mind?
Farage wouldn't be standing if the Tories were averaging 28-29%. It's that 23% figure that's done it.
My prediction which will possibly be garbage.
Reform will get dozens of third places. They will even pick up a few second places. They won't actually win any seats.
But yes the Tories are toast.
One other point is that this news conference shows Farage is the best performer of the last 20 years. And I include Johnson in that. But like Jonnson it is just performance with no substance.
We need fewer people like Farage in politics, not more.
Farage made more interesting and/or compelling points in that 20 minutes than any other party leader has done in the entire election to date, combined
The only vaguely interesting thing is the confirmation that the ocean going sociopath thinks the election should be all about him not the future of the country. He’s a grifter who’s gone into hypergrift mode.
Shaking up the election like this after the Tories have already tried and failed to attract Reform voters could turn out to be a brilliant strategy. Farage has ensured he gets more attention than he otherwise would have done.
He’ll be in the media every day attacking the Tories from the right.
Nightmare for Sunak.
Is he allowed his bully pulpit on GB News now he is standing?
This is an object lesson for the Tories, not that it makes any difference now. If you try to pander to the right then a) the right hates you; and b) it will fail.
In 18 generations time and a similar situation reoccurs then hopefully they will remember 2024.
Indeed. Nothing will ever be enough for the rightist wing.
Cricket is the greatest sport in the world in my opinion. Oddly enough, the first thing I saw when I arrived in NYC for the first time in 2013 after leaving the airport was a game of cricket taking place.
Farage made more interesting and/or compelling points in that 20 minutes than any other party leader has done in the entire election to date, combined
The only vaguely interesting thing is the confirmation that the ocean going sociopath thinks the election should be all about him not the future of the country. He’s a grifter who’s gone into hypergrift mode.
"Ocean-going sociopath" doesn't narrow it down hugely. Do you mean the California one?
Shaking up the election like this after the Tories have already tried and failed to attract Reform voters could turn out to be a brilliant strategy. Farage has ensured he gets more attention than he otherwise would have done.
He’ll be in the media every day attacking the Tories from the right.
Nightmare for Sunak.
Is he allowed his bully pulpit on GB News now he is standing?
The media have to be neutral now, so if they offer Farage an hour they have to offer the other main parties an hour as well.
Apparently he orders chicken and chips from Nandos , ok good so far then he says broccoli with it ! Who in their right mind orders broccoli with Nandos .
No. 1 niece took Wor Lass to Nandos once. The latter ordered lamb, much to the amusement of the former.
Reform/Tory crossover would be fun. Because at that point, if the media start pointing and saying “good god, Reform are now in second place!” it could potentially start a flood of votes over to them. Think Canada 1993.
You’re the second party until you’re not.
I don’t think it will happen, but with the Tories absolutely floundering and Farage (who although a man with a lot of baggage does have his target consistencies) re-entering the fray, it’s looking much more likely today than it was yesterday.
If it was Truss or Mordaunt leading the Tories I think Farage's Reform would indeed have overtaken the Tories on voteshare, maybe even seats too.
I think Rishi should just keep the Tories ahead of Reform though but it will be close.
In some respects the future of the right in this country depends on the outcome, if Rishi's Tories stay second then it will remain more pragmatic, with a significant One Nation wing and establishment in tone. If Farage however gets Reform to leapfrog the Tories for second then the right in this country will become permanently more populist most likely in the Farage/Johnson mode, in fact Reform would likely take over the rump Tories within a decade.
Farage would certainly shift the mainstream right closer to the Le Pen, Meloni, AfD, Wilders, Swedish Democrats, Vox, Trump style in the UK.
Seats where the Tories hold on by 1.0% or less include: 10 where Labour are within 1.0% 6 where the Lib Dems are within 1.0% (including Didcot and Wantage, the headline being a 33-33 tie between the Tories and Lib Dems with Labour behind on 24, but to 1 decimal place has 33.4-32.6 to the Tories) 2 with the SNP within 1.0% And two that are three-way ultra-marginals (West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine with the SNP 0.1% ahead of the Tories and the Lib Dems a further 1.6% behind, and Woking, with the Tories holding on and Labour and the Lib Dems within three percent of them)
Not sure I buy some of the constituency predictions elsewhere in the dataset (or in the ones mentioned, sometimes: West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, for example - I mean, I'd love it if the Lib Dems were that close, but I can't convince myself it's true)
Think Farage scents blood and has realised this is a once-in-a-century chance to kill off a major party, similar to what Labour did to the Liberals in the 1920s.
7th place in the election is a real possibility for Reform
In seats or votes? On seats, 11th or 12th is possible. On votes, I'd be surprised if they came worse than 6th.
I meant seats, but I was probably overegging the pudding like everyone is.
Please note, I'm not encouraging people to egg Nigel Farage.
I'm glad to hear it. It's totally unacceptable to waste good protein in that way.
Did I just hear a career politician lambast career politicians and a self-appointed leader of a political party lambast Sunak for not being elected by MPs?! Couldn't make it up!
Well quite. Plus this election is about the future of the country not the future of Farage’s ego. Someone in the Tory party should do a clip along the lines of “This election is about you, your hopes, your dreams, whether you get a decent job etc etc don’t let Nigel Farage make this all about him.”
Well maybe your party shouldn’t have allowed in 2 million migrants in 3 years? Without asking anyone, and against the expressed wishes of every poll on this issue since the year zero? Just a thought
Reform will end up with no seats, they will have cut the legs off the Tories who will lose more seats to Labour than they were already going to and end up with the prize of a party with a giant majority who are even less keen on smashing immigration and more likely to strengthen UK /EU ties.
It takes a specially skilled politician to take the country even further from where they and their core voters want it to be. But Nigel will be front and centre and that’s what counts.
Let’s see what the YouGov MRP looks like, out at 5pm. It will include their Squeeze VI shift in methodology so this could be interesting and with, presumably, much fresher data like the Find Out Now/Daily Mail MRP which was 20-27th May.
And, yes, there is now a detectable shift away from the tories in VI.
Seats where the Tories hold on by 1.0% or less include: 10 where Labour are within 1.0% 6 where the Lib Dems are within 1.0% (including Didcot and Wantage, the headline being a 33-33 tie between the Tories and Lib Dems with Labour behind on 24, but to 1 decimal place has 33.4-32.6 to the Tories) 2 with the SNP within 1.0% And two that are three-way ultra-marginals (West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine with the SNP 0.1% ahead of the Tories and the Lib Dems a further 1.6% behind, and Woking, with the Tories holding on and Labour and the Lib Dems within three percent of them)
Not completely sure I buy some of the constituency predictions elsewhere in the dataset (or in the ones mentioned, sometimes: West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, for example - I mean, I'd love it if the Lib Dems were that close, but I can't convince myself it's true)
The MRP predates the EMERGENCY announcement. Fair to say the Tories are REFUKed
The Tory party is dead - the Labour party is the new centre right party in British politics.
I actually agree with this. Labour are the Tories, but what is missing is an electoral equivalent of Old Labour. The Tory Party blew its chance to move into that position under Johnson.
As I was saying the other day - if Lab end up at the top end of the expectations, and Cons sub 100, there is a huge opportunity for ~100 people on the left of Labour to become the new official opposition in a single bound.
Is it possible that Nigel could even end up as PM? Surely every single Tory voter will now vote for him (why would they stick with Rishi? What's the point?). Meanwhile, the lower classes now have an anti-Tory party to support that isn't led by tedious, woke, uninspiring Keith Whatsizname, whom they presumably never actually liked. This could be seismic.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
The tories would probably take that today if offered.
For the country's sake I'd take that. We don't need a Labour majority of 300+, its not good for politics. This would also take the SNP down a peg or two and start them thinking 'why?'. More lib dems to add to their voice (which has been pretty absent since 2019).
Farage wouldn't be standing if the Tories were averaging 28-29%. It's that 23% figure that's done it.
My prediction which will possibly be garbage.
Reform will get dozens of third places. They will even pick up a few second places. They won't actually win any seats.
But yes the Tories are toast.
One other point is that this news conference shows Farage is the best performer of the last 20 years. And I include Johnson in that. But like Jonnson it is just performance with no substance.
We need fewer people like Farage in politics, not more.
I wouldn’t say it is entirely insubstantial. He did secure that Brexit referendum, without him leading UKIP and terrifying Tories Cameron would never have offered it
Farage is good, he’s also a hammy stage actor, but then quite a few of the best politicians are (and some of the worst)
This election would be better if the Tories simply committed suicide, dropped out, and made it a straight Reform V Labour gennylec
The Tories should actually do that for the good of the country. Dissolve themselves and get behind Reform. They claim to be patriots well here’s their chance to make the ultimate sacrifice
Did I just hear a career politician lambast career politicians and a self-appointed leader of a political party lambast Sunak for not being elected by MPs?! Couldn't make it up!
Well quite. Plus this election is about the future of the country not the future of Farage’s ego. Someone in the Tory party should do a clip along the lines of “This election is about you, your hopes, your dreams, whether you get a decent job etc etc don’t let Nigel Farage make this all about him.”
Well maybe your party shouldn’t have allowed in 2 million migrants in 3 years? Without asking anyone, and against the expressed wishes of every poll on this issue since the year zero? Just a thought
Not my party, username is old and not changeable. I agree that it’s a pity that the migration issue isn’t susceptible to quick fixes. However whilst it might suit the extremists who make up the bulk of Reform to machine gun migrants on the shoreline. It requires a little more thought and compassion than that.
The penalty Sunak will pay for his bogus Rwanda gimmick will be hearing Farage lambasting the Tory record on legal immigration at every opportunity between now and polling day.
Farage's bigger impact will be after the election. When a Labour government shows it has no answer to the boats - and the sympathies of the bulk of its MPs will so obviously be with those who attempt to make it to the UK - by whatever means.
That is when Farage will be at his most dangerous.
Farage made more interesting and/or compelling points in that 20 minutes than any other party leader has done in the entire election to date, combined
The only vaguely interesting thing is the confirmation that the ocean going sociopath thinks the election should be all about him not the future of the country. He’s a grifter who’s gone into hypergrift mode.
Is he still involved in that ‘Freedom and Fortune’ thing ?
It's exciting waiting for this emergency announcement. 😊
Sporting have suspended their Seats market, presumably so the traders can all go and listen to what Nige has to say.
Sporting back up - Tories now on 122-130. If SteveS is around, I'm glad I advised him correctly earlier and hope that he took my advice.
LDs up to 44-48. I have closed out my sell at 36. Got that one wrong. Whoever it was on here that said the Farage announcement is a gift to the LDs got it bang on. I wouldn't like to say how high they can go now. 60?
Shaking up the election like this after the Tories have already tried and failed to attract Reform voters could turn out to be a brilliant strategy. Farage has ensured he gets more attention than he otherwise would have done.
It's lame. Farage's failure to campaign actively since the Truss Debacle shows that he's not interested enough to put the work in to get anywhere. His decision a week ago not to stand was lame. His decision now to change his mind because he's seen how poor the competition is and he wants some attention is pathetically transparent.
The media will be delighted. They will be all over it. They'll give him an enormous boost because they're desperate for something interesting to happen, and so far they've only had Ed Davey falling off a paddle board to work with.
Has it not occurred to you that he’s lying?
That all this is just theatre? Because this is how you get maximum media attention. Say you’re not gonna stand, then call an “emergency press conference” and dramatically change your mind “because the British people are asking me”, and so guarantee the entire election now focuses on Farage
i know, I know. Shocking. A politician lying and playing to the gallery. Surely not! Labour or Tories would NEVER stoop so low
Thing is, if Farage had been campaigning since Truss was given the heave he could have had a lot of attention, and a lot of focus on him already.
But he couldn't be arsed.
So, no, I don't think this is part of a Machiavellian plan. It's very cult-like thinking to interpret the irrational actions of the cult leader as part of some elaborate plan that's been years in the making. It's not.
Farage thought he was a bigger fish with no need to paddle in the pool of British politics, and after seeing the election campaign swing into gear he's had a big dose of FOMO. It's lame.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform UK 14% (+1) Liberal Democrat 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Redfield
Yeah at this stage my prediction they wouldn’t sink below 150 seats is looking rocky…
Campaign looks to be focussing minds, but against them.
True enough, but are they really 13% behind with the over 65s? Noone else other than Techne has them losing the grey vote. Redfields age curve is ridiculously flat. That's not to say wrong but I just don't buy it, and it's been consistent with them for weeks.
It wouldn't surprise me if the National Service announcement turned a lot of people with grandchildren away from Team Blue.
Did I just hear a career politician lambast career politicians and a self-appointed leader of a political party lambast Sunak for not being elected by MPs?! Couldn't make it up!
Well quite. Plus this election is about the future of the country not the future of Farage’s ego. Someone in the Tory party should do a clip along the lines of “This election is about you, your hopes, your dreams, whether you get a decent job etc etc don’t let Nigel Farage make this all about him.”
Well maybe your party shouldn’t have allowed in 2 million migrants in 3 years? Without asking anyone, and against the expressed wishes of every poll on this issue since the year zero? Just a thought
Not my party, username is old and not changeable. I agree that it’s a pity that the migration issue isn’t susceptible to quick fixes. However whilst it might suit the extremists who make up the bulk of Reform to machine gun migrants on the shoreline. It requires a little more thought and compassion than that.
“Not susceptible to quick fixes”
The Tories presided, quite deliberately, over the greatest explosion in immigration in the history of the UK, in a way no one wanted, and this after a referendum which they won partly because it was a cry of pain over immigration. What they did was unspeakably irresponsible. They will now be annihilated for this, and their demise can’t come soon enough
- Reform overtake the Tories triggering a meltdown of the party - A big chunk of the remaining Tory vote then switches sides and Reform approach 30% in the polls - Reform start breaking through in the Red Well leaving Keir Starmer's well planned strategy in disarray - Election ends in a hung parliament with the Tories wiped out
The Microsoft report unmasked “prolific Russian influence actors” who last summer began trashing this summer’s Games in the French capital and Emmanuel Macron, the president, including by posting a bogus documentary featuring the Top Gun: Maverick star.
To accompany the fake Netflix documentary, which is narrated by an AI-generated Tom Cruise, Russia mocked up reviews of the programme from David Beckham, Jared Leto, Miley Cyrus and Mike Tyson.
“These ongoing Russian influence operations have two central objectives: to denigrate the reputation of the [International Olympic Committee] on the world stage, and to create the expectation of violence breaking out in Paris during the 2024 Summer Olympic Games,” the report said.
Did I just hear a career politician lambast career politicians and a self-appointed leader of a political party lambast Sunak for not being elected by MPs?! Couldn't make it up!
Well quite. Plus this election is about the future of the country not the future of Farage’s ego. Someone in the Tory party should do a clip along the lines of “This election is about you, your hopes, your dreams, whether you get a decent job etc etc don’t let Nigel Farage make this all about him.”
Well maybe your party shouldn’t have allowed in 2 million migrants in 3 years? Without asking anyone, and against the expressed wishes of every poll on this issue since the year zero? Just a thought
Not my party, username is old and not changeable. I agree that it’s a pity that the migration issue isn’t susceptible to quick fixes. However whilst it might suit the extremists who make up the bulk of Reform to machine gun migrants on the shoreline. It requires a little more thought and compassion than that.
“Not susceptible to quick fixes”
The Tories presided, quite deliberately, over the greatest explosion in immigration in the history of the UK, in a way no one wanted, and this after a referendum which they won partly because it was a cry of pain over immigration. What they did was unspeakably irresponsible. They will now be annihilated for this, and their demise can’t come soon enough
Which is why they should have waited till the late autumn when the migration figures are likely to fall significantly.
Did I just hear a career politician lambast career politicians and a self-appointed leader of a political party lambast Sunak for not being elected by MPs?! Couldn't make it up!
Well quite. Plus this election is about the future of the country not the future of Farage’s ego. Someone in the Tory party should do a clip along the lines of “This election is about you, your hopes, your dreams, whether you get a decent job etc etc don’t let Nigel Farage make this all about him.”
Well maybe your party shouldn’t have allowed in 2 million migrants in 3 years? Without asking anyone, and against the expressed wishes of every poll on this issue since the year zero? Just a thought
Not my party, username is old and not changeable. I agree that it’s a pity that the migration issue isn’t susceptible to quick fixes. However whilst it might suit the extremists who make up the bulk of Reform to machine gun migrants on the shoreline. It requires a little more thought and compassion than that.
“Not susceptible to quick fixes”
The Tories presided, quite deliberately, over the greatest explosion in immigration in the history of the UK, in a way no one wanted, and this after a referendum which they won partly because it was a cry of pain over immigration. What they did was unspeakably irresponsible. They will now be annihilated for this, and their demise can’t come soon enough
They did want it because they voted for a party which enacted it. Dumbo.
Did I just hear a career politician lambast career politicians and a self-appointed leader of a political party lambast Sunak for not being elected by MPs?! Couldn't make it up!
Well quite. Plus this election is about the future of the country not the future of Farage’s ego. Someone in the Tory party should do a clip along the lines of “This election is about you, your hopes, your dreams, whether you get a decent job etc etc don’t let Nigel Farage make this all about him.”
Well maybe your party shouldn’t have allowed in 2 million migrants in 3 years? Without asking anyone, and against the expressed wishes of every poll on this issue since the year zero? Just a thought
Not my party, username is old and not changeable. I agree that it’s a pity that the migration issue isn’t susceptible to quick fixes. However whilst it might suit the extremists who make up the bulk of Reform to machine gun migrants on the shoreline. It requires a little more thought and compassion than that.
Is it possible that Nigel could even end up as PM? Surely every single Tory voter will now vote for him (why would they stick with Rishi? What's the point?). Meanwhile, the lower classes now have an anti-Tory party to support that isn't led by tedious, woke, uninspiring Keith Whatsizname, whom they presumably never actually liked. This could be seismic.
QTWTAIN.
But it could get interesting quickly. I suspect it’s more likely Reform just hover at their current polling +/- a bit and the Tories have a crap result. There is a small chance you do see a big switch, but it will need something pretty unprecedented to happen. We are however in unprecedented times and if you’d told me 2 months ago the Tories would be sinking to 19/20% in the polls during the campaign I’d have been very cynical.
The Microsoft report unmasked “prolific Russian influence actors” who last summer began trashing this summer’s Games in the French capital and Emmanuel Macron, the president, including by posting a bogus documentary featuring the Top Gun: Maverick star.
To accompany the fake Netflix documentary, which is narrated by an AI-generated Tom Cruise, Russia mocked up reviews of the programme from David Beckham, Jared Leto, Miley Cyrus and Mike Tyson.
“These ongoing Russian influence operations have two central objectives: to denigrate the reputation of the [International Olympic Committee] on the world stage, and to create the expectation of violence breaking out in Paris during the 2024 Summer Olympic Games,” the report said.
Do any banks still offer the voice recognition to authorise you when you phone up? If they do, and you have it, disable it now.
This is an object lesson for the Tories, not that it makes any difference now. If you try to pander to the right then a) the right hates you; and b) it will fail.
In 18 generations time and a similar situation reoccurs then hopefully they will remember 2024.
Do bugger off. There have been zero actual right think policies since 'the grown ups' came back into the room.
Did I just hear a career politician lambast career politicians and a self-appointed leader of a political party lambast Sunak for not being elected by MPs?! Couldn't make it up!
Well quite. Plus this election is about the future of the country not the future of Farage’s ego. Someone in the Tory party should do a clip along the lines of “This election is about you, your hopes, your dreams, whether you get a decent job etc etc don’t let Nigel Farage make this all about him.”
Well maybe your party shouldn’t have allowed in 2 million migrants in 3 years? Without asking anyone, and against the expressed wishes of every poll on this issue since the year zero? Just a thought
Reform will end up with no seats, they will have cut the legs off the Tories who will lose more seats to Labour than they were already going to and end up with the prize of a party with a giant majority who are even less keen on smashing immigration and more likely to strengthen UK /EU ties.
It takes a specially skilled politician to take the country even further from where they and their core voters want it to be. But Nigel will be front and centre and that’s what counts.
I don’t care. I want the Tories destroyed. It may take two elections but this is the necessary beginning, every journey single step etc etc
- Reform overtake the Tories triggering a meltdown of the party - A big chunk of the remaining Tory vote then switches sides and Reform approach 30% in the polls - Reform start breaking through in the Red Well leaving Keir Starmer's well planned strategy in disarray - Election ends in a hung parliament with the Tories wiped out
The 9% vote share in the 2019 Euros is the Conservative floor. If they fell back that far, that would probably put Reform in the high twenties. Labour would still be well ahead, but Reform would win a fair number of seats.
Proper PR is coming. If Labour get a massive majority they will have to vote for PR to keep the Conservatives/Reform out next time when things are still not working.
This is an object lesson for the Tories, not that it makes any difference now. If you try to pander to the right then a) the right hates you; and b) it will fail.
In 18 generations time and a similar situation reoccurs then hopefully they will remember 2024.
Do bugger off. There have been zero actual right think policies since 'the grown ups' came back into the room.
Thinking of relocating to Clacton for the lolz? Let us know how the campaigning goes.
The Conservative candidate in Clacton is Giles Watling. He's 71 and the brother of Deborah Watling, who played Victoria along side the second Doctor in Doctor Who. He has also acted and appears in a Doctor Who audio play: https://www.bigfinish.com/releases/v/doctor-who-the-secret-history-872
Long time reader, first time poster. I used to live in Macclesfield. It was certainly Tory through and through then, and hasn't seen significant demographic change since. Its been Tory for over a century. While my own politics would love to see it change hands, I just don't see where that 93% is coming from.
Last locals in 2023 saw a slight Conservative lead, though independents muddy it a bit, some of the largest wards like traditionally Tory Tytherington have resident associations. The town itself returns Labour councillors, but much of the seat is more rural, and includes areas like the millionaires row of Prestbury.
I have bets on the Conservatives at 9/2 in Macclesfield and 6/5 in neighbouring Tatton, a 17,000 majority that is the Cheshire Set all over.
Yep - and welcome - It will be all about how the areas represented by the independents break. As I alluded earlier I live round that bit of town and have had Labour out and about a couple of times. Not seen the Conservatives yet.
On the conservative lead I would say for the Cheshire East seats that make up Macclesfield constituency it isn’t as clear as that. I make it:
The penalty Sunak will pay for his bogus Rwanda gimmick will be hearing Farage lambasting the Tory record on legal immigration at every opportunity between now and polling day.
If Sunak had had the courage to make Rwanda work, he would have at least had that success to point to. As it is, he has nothing.
- Reform overtake the Tories triggering a meltdown of the party - A big chunk of the remaining Tory vote then switches sides and Reform approach 30% in the polls - Reform start breaking through in the Red Well leaving Keir Starmer's well planned strategy in disarray - Election ends in a hung parliament with the Tories wiped out
Reform "breaking through" would involve a whole load of Jared O'Mara replays over the next two years.
"Why no, we had no idea that our carefully vetted candidate for Penistone & Stocksbridge, A. Dolph Hilter, had such extreme views. How could we ever have foreseen that?"
Certainly not dissing the More in Common MRP just because it has the implied lead at 14%.
However … fieldwork 9-29th May. 2/3rds of the fieldwork was before Sunak called the election
And that kind of shows in their estimate of SNP seats at 35. They’d bite your hand off for 35 seats right now imho.
CORRECTION
It’s even worse than I thought. Wiki shows it 9-29 May because their box isn’t big enough for fieldwork spread over such a wide time period.
It’s in fact 9th April to 29th May.
I’m afraid this really isn’t a very up to speed poll or national seat prediction.
Let’s see how the YouGov MRP looks out shortly with, presumably, much fresher data.
That sounded a bit odd, so wondered if it was research data for the MRP that was from April, and their website seems to confirm this:
"To train a model to predict someone’s voting intention requires lots of information about lots of people. We surveyed over 10,000 people in April and used this data to develop our baseline model. Since the General Election date was announced, we have surveyed over 5,000 more people about their current voting intention to take into account the changed circumstances. The data is weighted by recency, so that the newer data influences the model more than the older data."
From memory this does seem to be similar to other MRPs, where you constantly feed in new data, rather than starting from scratch.
This is an object lesson for the Tories, not that it makes any difference now. If you try to pander to the right then a) the right hates you; and b) it will fail.
In 18 generations time and a similar situation reoccurs then hopefully they will remember 2024.
Do bugger off. There have been zero actual right think policies since 'the grown ups' came back into the room.
@TOPPING seems to believe extremely high tax, high spend, high debt economic policies, allied with the greatest wave of immigration in all of British history, is “right wing”
I fear for these people when an actual government with right wing policies comes along, because it will. Probably not now, but in time, it always does
Seats where the Tories hold on by 1.0% or less include: 10 where Labour are within 1.0% 6 where the Lib Dems are within 1.0% (including Didcot and Wantage, the headline being a 33-33 tie between the Tories and Lib Dems with Labour behind on 24, but to 1 decimal place has 33.4-32.6 to the Tories) 2 with the SNP within 1.0% And two that are three-way ultra-marginals (West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine with the SNP 0.1% ahead of the Tories and the Lib Dems a further 1.6% behind, and Woking, with the Tories holding on and Labour and the Lib Dems within three percent of them)
Not sure I buy some of the constituency predictions elsewhere in the dataset (or in the ones mentioned, sometimes: West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, for example - I mean, I'd love it if the Lib Dems were that close, but I can't convince myself it's true)
I despair of these MRP polls. There is no way that Lab and LDs are tied 3% behind the Tories in Woking. This is a Tory/LD fight. Until a few weeks ago I would have said Tories holding on just, now I think the LDs will win it, but really Lab should be absolutely nowhere.
The council is 24 LD, 0 Con, 1 Lab, 5 Ind. Labour were defending 1 seat in May and lost it.
The last GE was 26K Con, 17K LD, 9K Lab
And the LDs are targeting it. In what world are Lab challengers here?
The penalty Sunak will pay for his bogus Rwanda gimmick will be hearing Farage lambasting the Tory record on legal immigration at every opportunity between now and polling day.
If Sunak had had the courage to make Rwanda work, he would have at least had that success to point to. As it is, he has nothing.
It might have worked if he's given it time. Seen it through the courts and waited until a flight actually took off. As it is, he decided to go in July for some reason.
Apparently he orders chicken and chips from Nandos , ok good so far then he says broccoli with it ! Who in their right mind orders broccoli with Nandos .
This is an object lesson for the Tories, not that it makes any difference now. If you try to pander to the right then a) the right hates you; and b) it will fail.
In 18 generations time and a similar situation reoccurs then hopefully they will remember 2024.
Do bugger off. There have been zero actual right think policies since 'the grown ups' came back into the room.
@TOPPING seems to believe extremely high tax, high spend, high debt economic policies, allied with the greatest wave of immigration in all of British history, is “right wing”
I fear for these people when an actual government with right wing policies comes along, because it will. Probably not now, but in time, it always does
You meanwhile are unable either to define what right wing means, or understand the relative position of the parties so I'll stick with the I know it when I see it with this version of the Conservative Party.
Or you can use toxic motherfuckers if you prefer another description.
I can't think of anything that comes close to Linda Lewis's 1972 offering "Lark"
I love the description of her in a Rolling Stone article from 73:
"Linda Lewis has this very strange voice. It's like a little girl's: high, with a breathy sort of purity, full of recklessness and wit. But it also has an unexpectedly rough texture which cuts into the little-girl quality so that, while she sounds like no one else, there are moments when she feels like early Stevie Wonder crossed with Michael Jackson — an extraordinary combination"
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
The tories would probably take that today if offered.
For the country's sake I'd take that. We don't need a Labour majority of 300+, its not good for politics. This would also take the SNP down a peg or two and start them thinking 'why?'. More lib dems to add to their voice (which has been pretty absent since 2019).
You bet they would take that. I'd take that. Most of us would, but we ain't gonna get that.
July 4th was an insane choice, and it is becoming increasingly obvious why.
Farage made more interesting and/or compelling points in that 20 minutes than any other party leader has done in the entire election to date, combined
The only vaguely interesting thing is the confirmation that the ocean going sociopath thinks the election should be all about him not the future of the country. He’s a grifter who’s gone into hypergrift mode.
Still a far better speaker than the other two grifters though.
"How does the model account for those who don't know how they will vote? When we ask people their voting intention some people say they don’t know. We push them to say who they would vote for if they were forced to choose, and we use this response as their expected vote. Some people, when asked to imagine that they were forced to choose, still don’t know who they would vote for. Normally, when estimating vote share on a national level, we exclude these responses - effectively estimating that if this group of ‘double don’t knows’ ultimately votes, they would do so in proportion with those who have expressed a choice. That means even if someone lives in a rural area, is over 75, and voted Conservative in 2019 - if they respond they don’t know who they’ll vote for - the assumption is that they are the average voter i.e. more likely to vote Labour than Conservative. Using our MRP model, we’re able to make a better guess. When training the model to predict people’s voting intention based on their demographics, voting behaviour and information about their constituency, we excluded the responses of people who didn’t know who they would vote for (after the squeeze) from the training data. When we apply the model to all the voters in the constituency, it effectively means we estimate the votes of people who don’t know, according to how people like them (in terms of demographics and past voting behaviour) but who do know, intend to vote. So if someone lives in a rural area, is over 75 and voted Conservative in 2019, the model uses the fact that most over 75s in rural areas who voted Conservative in 2019 and do know who they’ll vote for say they will vote Conservative, to guess that if they do vote it will likely be for the Conservatives."
The trouble is that such an approach depends a great deal on getting the turnout part of the model right. Are More in Common's results consistent with a realistic turnout of perhaps 65%, or a wholly unrealistic turnout of perhaps 85% after imputing responses from all those who still can't decide even after a squeeze question, yet say that they will eventually decide and vote. I suspect that many of them won't be able to make up their mind and will just not bother in the end.
Seats where the Tories hold on by 1.0% or less include: 10 where Labour are within 1.0% 6 where the Lib Dems are within 1.0% (including Didcot and Wantage, the headline being a 33-33 tie between the Tories and Lib Dems with Labour behind on 24, but to 1 decimal place has 33.4-32.6 to the Tories) 2 with the SNP within 1.0% And two that are three-way ultra-marginals (West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine with the SNP 0.1% ahead of the Tories and the Lib Dems a further 1.6% behind, and Woking, with the Tories holding on and Labour and the Lib Dems within three percent of them)
Not sure I buy some of the constituency predictions elsewhere in the dataset (or in the ones mentioned, sometimes: West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, for example - I mean, I'd love it if the Lib Dems were that close, but I can't convince myself it's true)
I despair of these MRP polls. There is no way that Lab and LDs are tied 3% behind the Tories in Woking. This is a Tory/LD fight. Until a few weeks ago I would have said Tories holding on just, now I think the LDs will win it, but really Lab should be absolutely nowhere.
The council is 24 LD, 0 Con, 1 Lab, 5 Ind. Labour were defending 1 seat in May and lost it.
The last GE was 26K Con, 17K LD, 9K Lab
And the LDs are targeting it. In what world are Lab challengers here?
MRPs are a big problem for the LDs in seats where otherwise the best datapoints would be council elections and the 2019 results. They middy the waters nicely for the Tories.
The penalty Sunak will pay for his bogus Rwanda gimmick will be hearing Farage lambasting the Tory record on legal immigration at every opportunity between now and polling day.
If Sunak had had the courage to make Rwanda work, he would have at least had that success to point to. As it is, he has nothing.
It might have worked if he's given it time. Seen it through the courts and waited until a flight actually took off. As it is, he decided to go in July for some reason.
Agree. I err slightly on the side of it probably not being robust enough to prevent a load of legal challenges, but it was worth finding out - only Sunak doesn’t seem to have thought so.
Shaking up the election like this after the Tories have already tried and failed to attract Reform voters could turn out to be a brilliant strategy. Farage has ensured he gets more attention than he otherwise would have done.
It's lame. Farage's failure to campaign actively since the Truss Debacle shows that he's not interested enough to put the work in to get anywhere. His decision a week ago not to stand was lame. His decision now to change his mind because he's seen how poor the competition is and he wants some attention is pathetically transparent.
The media will be delighted. They will be all over it. They'll give him an enormous boost because they're desperate for something interesting to happen, and so far they've only had Ed Davey falling off a paddle board to work with.
Has it not occurred to you that he’s lying?
That all this is just theatre? Because this is how you get maximum media attention. Say you’re not gonna stand, then call an “emergency press conference” and dramatically change your mind “because the British people are asking me”, and so guarantee the entire election now focuses on Farage
i know, I know. Shocking. A politician lying and playing to the gallery. Surely not! Labour or Tories would NEVER stoop so low
Thing is, if Farage had been campaigning since Truss was given the heave he could have had a lot of attention, and a lot of focus on him already.
But he couldn't be arsed.
So, no, I don't think this is part of a Machiavellian plan. It's very cult-like thinking to interpret the irrational actions of the cult leader as part of some elaborate plan that's been years in the making. It's not.
Farage thought he was a bigger fish with no need to paddle in the pool of British politics, and after seeing the election campaign swing into gear he's had a big dose of FOMO. It's lame.
I sense you are upset. I shall merely offer a passing “lol” then move on
Comments
9th April to 29th May. Hmmm.
Tatton was, of course held by Martin Bell, The Man in the White Suit, in 1997. When the Conservative was a remarkably dodgy character, and it was a straight fight between him and Bell.
I am a right wing maverick who hates migration and the EU. Oh look! There’s someone right up my street who now gets my vote
In 18 generations time and a similar situation reoccurs then hopefully they will remember 2024.
Subtext: Nigel Farage realises the 'Trump is giving me a job' thing is fanciful balls, especially as he's privately concluded the Donald won't win.
Big pinch of salt with that one then. And yeah, YouGov will be interesting after the R&W one.
That all this is just theatre? Because this is how you get maximum media attention. Say you’re not gonna stand, then call an “emergency press conference” and dramatically change your mind “because the British people are asking me”, and so guarantee the entire election now focuses on Farage
i know, I know. Shocking. A politician lying and playing to the gallery. Surely not! Labour or Tories would NEVER stoop so low
Though Farage would probably have polled closer to 20% than the 12% he got in 2015 so would still have been a problem
Reform will get dozens of third places. They will even pick up a few second places. They won't actually win any seats.
But yes the Tories are toast.
One other point is that this news conference shows Farage is the best performer of the last 20 years. And I include Johnson in that. But like Jonnson it is just performance with no substance.
We need fewer people like Farage in politics, not more.
I've never been to Nandos.
The world will be a safer place with Donald Trump in the White House
I think Rishi should just keep the Tories ahead of Reform though but it will be close.
In some respects the future of the right in this country depends on the outcome, if Rishi's Tories stay second then it will remain more pragmatic, with a significant One Nation wing and establishment in tone. If Farage however gets Reform to leapfrog the Tories for second then the right in this country will become permanently more populist most likely in the Farage/Johnson mode, in fact Reform would likely take over the rump Tories within a decade.
Farage would certainly shift the mainstream right closer to the Le Pen, Meloni, AfD, Wilders, Swedish Democrats, Vox, Trump style in the UK.
Seats where the Tories hold on by 1.0% or less include:
10 where Labour are within 1.0%
6 where the Lib Dems are within 1.0% (including Didcot and Wantage, the headline being a 33-33 tie between the Tories and Lib Dems with Labour behind on 24, but to 1 decimal place has 33.4-32.6 to the Tories)
2 with the SNP within 1.0%
And two that are three-way ultra-marginals (West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine with the SNP 0.1% ahead of the Tories and the Lib Dems a further 1.6% behind, and Woking, with the Tories holding on and Labour and the Lib Dems within three percent of them)
Not sure I buy some of the constituency predictions elsewhere in the dataset (or in the ones mentioned, sometimes: West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, for example - I mean, I'd love it if the Lib Dems were that close, but I can't convince myself it's true)
The big winners are the Lib Dems who will find it easier to take those Blue Wall seats .
It takes a specially skilled politician to take the country even further from where they and their core voters want it to be. But Nigel will be front and centre and that’s what counts.
And, yes, there is now a detectable shift away from the tories in VI.
Farage is good, he’s also a hammy stage actor, but then quite a few of the best politicians are (and some of the worst)
This election would be better if the Tories simply committed suicide, dropped out, and made it a straight Reform V Labour gennylec
The Tories should actually do that for the good of the country. Dissolve themselves and get behind Reform. They claim to be patriots well here’s their chance to make the ultimate sacrifice
Ben Walker, earlier:
The Conservatives are an error margin away from oblivion. Is it that bad?
Yes. Yes, it is.
So if this shows a big majority for Labour, I think we can be confident that will be the result, at least on previous elections.
That is when Farage will be at his most dangerous.
LDs up to 44-48. I have closed out my sell at 36. Got that one wrong. Whoever it was on here that said the Farage announcement is a gift to the LDs got it bang on. I wouldn't like to say how high they can go now. 60?
But he couldn't be arsed.
So, no, I don't think this is part of a Machiavellian plan. It's very cult-like thinking to interpret the irrational actions of the cult leader as part of some elaborate plan that's been years in the making. It's not.
Farage thought he was a bigger fish with no need to paddle in the pool of British politics, and after seeing the election campaign swing into gear he's had a big dose of FOMO. It's lame.
I’d be interested to any effect in the next few polls.
The Tories presided, quite deliberately, over the greatest explosion in immigration in the history of the UK, in a way no one wanted, and this after a referendum which they won partly because it was a cry of pain over immigration. What they did was unspeakably irresponsible. They will now be annihilated for this, and their demise can’t come soon enough
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4660268/#Comment_4660268
2024 could be a PPS (perfect populist storm):
- Reform overtake the Tories triggering a meltdown of the party
- A big chunk of the remaining Tory vote then switches sides and Reform approach 30% in the polls
- Reform start breaking through in the Red Well leaving Keir Starmer's well planned strategy in disarray
- Election ends in a hung parliament with the Tories wiped out
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/03/russia-makes-fake-tom-cruise-paris-olympics-violence-video/
The Microsoft report unmasked “prolific Russian influence actors” who last summer began trashing this summer’s Games in the French capital and Emmanuel Macron, the president, including by posting a bogus documentary featuring the Top Gun: Maverick star.
To accompany the fake Netflix documentary, which is narrated by an AI-generated Tom Cruise, Russia mocked up reviews of the programme from David Beckham, Jared Leto, Miley Cyrus and Mike Tyson.
“These ongoing Russian influence operations have two central objectives: to denigrate the reputation of the [International Olympic Committee] on the world stage, and to create the expectation of violence breaking out in Paris during the 2024 Summer Olympic Games,” the report said.
But it could get interesting quickly. I suspect it’s more likely Reform just hover at their current polling +/- a bit and the Tories have a crap result. There is a small chance you do see a big switch, but it will need something pretty unprecedented to happen. We are however in unprecedented times and if you’d told me 2 months ago the Tories would be sinking to 19/20% in the polls during the campaign I’d have been very cynical.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnsley_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Notional_2019_result
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnsley_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Notional_2019_result
On the conservative lead I would say for the Cheshire East seats that make up Macclesfield constituency it isn’t as clear as that. I make it:
Conservatives - 8 councillors
Labour - 11 councillors
Independent - 3 councillors
https://macclesfield.nub.news/news/local-news/live-macclesfield-local-elections-results-as-cheshire-east-and-parish-votes-revealed-182952
For my sums I have included Disley and the Poynton Seats not shown on that page (all Conservative seats).
"Why no, we had no idea that our carefully vetted candidate for Penistone & Stocksbridge, A. Dolph Hilter, had such extreme views. How could we ever have foreseen that?"
"To train a model to predict someone’s voting intention requires lots of information about lots of people. We surveyed over 10,000 people in April and used this data to develop our baseline model. Since the General Election date was announced, we have surveyed over 5,000 more people about their current voting intention to take into account the changed circumstances. The data is weighted by recency, so that the newer data influences the model more than the older data."
From memory this does seem to be similar to other MRPs, where you constantly feed in new data, rather than starting from scratch.
I fear for these people when an actual government with right wing policies comes along, because it will. Probably not now, but in time, it always does
The council is 24 LD, 0 Con, 1 Lab, 5 Ind. Labour were defending 1 seat in May and lost it.
The last GE was 26K Con, 17K LD, 9K Lab
And the LDs are targeting it. In what world are Lab challengers here?
"Nigel Farage has better favourables among the Conservative base than Rishi Suank. How important is this?"
Among all voters:
Sunak: -41
Farage: -24
Tory voters:
Sunk: -2
Farage: +26
Real real risk for Sunak here that a bit more noise and it could become a stampede towards reform.
Or you can use toxic motherfuckers if you prefer another description.
I can't think of anything that comes close to Linda Lewis's 1972 offering "Lark"
I love the description of her in a Rolling Stone article from 73:
"Linda Lewis has this very strange voice. It's like a little girl's: high, with a breathy sort of purity, full of recklessness and wit. But it also has an unexpectedly rough texture which cuts into the little-girl quality so that, while she sounds like no one else, there are moments when she feels like early Stevie Wonder crossed with Michael Jackson — an extraordinary combination"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lark_(album)
This is the opening track, Spring Song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6WBcNuvkPI
I urge you all to enjoy the full album; it's excellent from start to finish
Essex girl Linda died last Spring. She should be fondly remembered
July 4th was an insane choice, and it is becoming increasingly obvious why.
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/general-election-2024/mrp/
"How does the model account for those who don't know how they will vote?
When we ask people their voting intention some people say they don’t know. We push them to say who they would vote for if they were forced to choose, and we use this response as their expected vote. Some people, when asked to imagine that they were forced to choose, still don’t know who they would vote for. Normally, when estimating vote share on a national level, we exclude these responses - effectively estimating that if this group of ‘double don’t knows’ ultimately votes, they would do so in proportion with those who have expressed a choice. That means even if someone lives in a rural area, is over 75, and voted Conservative in 2019 - if they respond they don’t know who they’ll vote for - the assumption is that they are the average voter i.e. more likely to vote Labour than Conservative.
Using our MRP model, we’re able to make a better guess. When training the model to predict people’s voting intention based on their demographics, voting behaviour and information about their constituency, we excluded the responses of people who didn’t know who they would vote for (after the squeeze) from the training data. When we apply the model to all the voters in the constituency, it effectively means we estimate the votes of people who don’t know, according to how people like them (in terms of demographics and past voting behaviour) but who do know, intend to vote. So if someone lives in a rural area, is over 75 and voted Conservative in 2019, the model uses the fact that most over 75s in rural areas who voted Conservative in 2019 and do know who they’ll vote for say they will vote Conservative, to guess that if they do vote it will likely be for the Conservatives."
The trouble is that such an approach depends a great deal on getting the turnout part of the model right. Are More in Common's results consistent with a realistic turnout of perhaps 65%, or a wholly unrealistic turnout of perhaps 85% after imputing responses from all those who still can't decide even after a squeeze question, yet say that they will eventually decide and vote. I suspect that many of them won't be able to make up their mind and will just not bother in the end.
You would have to have a heart of stone etc…
·
2s
NEW: First YouGov MRP of the campaign and it's BRUTAL for the Conservatives.
Projects a 194 seat Labour majority. Biggest in 100 years.
Tories collapse to just 140 seats - lowest since 1906.
12 Cabinet ministers projected to lose their seats inc Hunt, Mordaunt and Shapps.