It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A great grandchild of Boris falling off a paddle board c.2124?
One presumes Rishi has control of his own social media accounts, although others may have access too. I would imagine nothing gets posted without his nod. I think there’s also a danger of overanalysing everything. Most people aren’t going to be aware of the PMs social media activity.
That alone will make little difference, but the general way they run their digital campaigning is utterly amateurish. It is probably hard for them to recruit well as most social media experts are young, and that's a very anti-Tory grouping.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform 14% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-27/5
Farage will be looking closely at this poll.
I'm beginning to think it would be best if the Conservatives were just finished off in one go, like their Canadian counterparts, to give someone else a chance of representing centre right voters.
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A great grandchild of Boris falling off a paddle board c.2124?
What comes next? National Conservatives, Unionist Conservatives, Indpeendent Conservatives, Con-Labs, and a book 'The strange death of Conservative England'.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform 14% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-27/5
Farage will be looking closely at this poll.
I'm beginning to think it would be best if the Conservatives were just finished off in one go, like their Canadian counterparts, to give someone else a chance of representing centre right voters.
A wipeout would bring forwards more serious thought about rebuilding an electoral coalition and avoid a period of futile pandering to the core vote.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform 14% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-27/5
There’s got to be a non-zero chance of someone on team Tory having an emotional meltdown at this rate. The Tories deserve a hammering I’m not sure they entirely deserve this though.
The Conservative Party has arguably been in death throes since joining the EU back in the Thatcher era. Blair continued the neoliberal turn and the Tories were not in government again until the financial crash - and even then they couldn't manage to get a majority. There has arguably been one or two small moments of governing Conservative majorities since the Major government - the brief post referendum period before May lost the majority and the pre Covid moment for Johnson.
Outside of that we had the coalition, the pre Brexit Tory majority (which the referendum made ungovernable with Blue on Blue attacks) the May minority government, the Johnson minority government and the post Covid ungoverning majorities held by Truss and Sunak. To me, this looks like a party slowly dying and becoming irrelevant as their old economic positions become the accepted positions of the supposed centre left party and any attempt to go further right on culture war / social issues lead to weird policy focusses or right wing lunacy about the secret cabal trying to wokify Western Culture, which can always be out done by the even more right wing weirdo freaks who never actually have to worry about accidentally ending up in government.
The Tory party is dead - the Labour party is the new centre right party in British politics.
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A great grandchild of Boris falling off a paddle board c.2124?
What comes next? National Conservatives, Unionist Conservatives, Indpeendent Conservatives, Con-Labs, and a book 'The strange death of Conservative England'.
Boris Johnson comes back and starts a splinter party of four Tories consisting solely of members of his own family.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform 14% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-27/5
Farage will be looking closely at this poll.
I'm beginning to think it would be best if the Conservatives were just finished off in one go, like their Canadian counterparts, to give someone else a chance of representing centre right voters.
I have said it before but I really do think we are reaching a point where there is no way back for the Tory brand. It’s entirely plausible to me that the centre right needs a new label because it is simply too toxic.
Us LDs might not (well I think that is pretty certain actually) win the election, but we are having a lot of fun not doing so. We are certainly having a jolly good time in Guildford.
I need to see how Derbyshire County Council react to being told that their road humps (and the barriers in the photo) are an unlawful obstruction on a public highway under S137 of the Highways Act 1980, and must have a 1.5m flat route created through them. Easy to say, difficult to make happen if they drag their feet.
I'm sure you know this but Derbyshire's cycling officer is very good IMO - I'm sure she'd be receptive.
If you could PM me a contact that would be appreciated. I would be putting in a series of about 10 requests via the Public Highways web form.
I can't PM you that I can see, but it's Carol Parsons at the usual firstname.lastname@derbyshire.gov.uk.
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform 14% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-27/5
Farage will be looking closely at this poll.
I'm beginning to think it would be best if the Conservatives were just finished off in one go, like their Canadian counterparts, to give someone else a chance of representing centre right voters.
A Party of one -nation Tories would even be tempting from my side of the divide. When such people align themselves alongside Chope, Phillip Davies, Braverman, Jenrick etc, they don't deserve a vote, so hopefully any realigned party of the right would tell people like Mark Francois to do one!
The Tory party is dead - the Labour party is the new centre right party in British politics.
I actually agree with this. Labour are the Tories, but what is missing is an electoral equivalent of Old Labour. The Tory Party blew its chance to move into that position under Johnson.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform 14% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-27/5
There’s got to be a non-zero chance of someone on team Tory having an emotional meltdown at this rate. The Tories deserve a hammering I’m not sure they entirely deserve this though.
The Conservative Party has arguably been in death throes since joining the EU back in the Thatcher era. Blair continued the neoliberal turn and the Tories were not in government again until the financial crash - and even then they couldn't manage to get a majority. There has arguably been one or two small moments of governing Conservative majorities since the Major government - the brief post referendum period before May lost the majority and the pre Covid moment for Johnson.
Outside of that we had the coalition, the pre Brexit Tory majority (which the referendum made ungovernable with Blue on Blue attacks) the May minority government, the Johnson minority government and the post Covid ungoverning majorities held by Truss and Sunak. To me, this looks like a party slowly dying and becoming irrelevant as their old economic positions become the accepted positions of the supposed centre left party and any attempt to go further right on culture war / social issues lead to weird policy focusses or right wing lunacy about the secret cabal trying to wokify Western Culture, which can always be out done by the even more right wing weirdo freaks who never actually have to worry about accidentally ending up in government.
The Tory party is dead - the Labour party is the new centre right party in British politics.
That is nonsense on stilts, factually inaccurate and laced with a heavy dose of wishful thinking.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform UK 14% (+1) Liberal Democrat 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Redfield
Yeah at this stage my prediction they wouldn’t sink below 150 seats is looking rocky…
Campaign looks to be focussing minds, but against them.
True enough, but are they really 13% behind with the over 65s? Noone else other than Techne has them losing the grey vote. Redfields age curve is ridiculously flat. That's not to say wrong but I just don't buy it, and it's been consistent with them for weeks.
It seems unlikely, but it's not implausible that my fellow +65s have shifted to Labour a bit. I'm not sure that the Tories are offering that age group much more than Labour are - the unfreezing of the tax allowance for state pensioners is small beer. And for many of us oldies, improving the NHS is the most urgent need.
And, I've said this before but will say it again, many of us oldies vote with our children and grandchildren in mind - not just our own interests. The Tories haven't offered mine much to write home about.
R&W 10.000 sample poll is cataclysmic for the tories. 26% labour lead. I wonder when the tory campaign is just going to unravel completely. Candidates and members must be thinking: why bother? Wow.
Not sure what I think of cricket being played at a temporary venue in “New York”, which is actually 30 miles from New York, and with seemingly little attempt being made to reach out to the local population beyond those who are already fans of the sport.
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A great grandchild of Boris falling off a paddle board c.2124?
What comes next? National Conservatives, Unionist Conservatives, Indpeendent Conservatives, Con-Labs, and a book 'The strange death of Conservative England'.
Boris Johnson comes back and starts a splinter party of four Tories consisting solely of members of his own family.
He would also need to find a way to engineer an offspring into the lords to ensure representation in the upper house. No idea at all if he could pull that off.
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A great grandchild of Boris falling off a paddle board c.2124?
What comes next? National Conservatives, Unionist Conservatives, Indpeendent Conservatives, Con-Labs, and a book 'The strange death of Conservative England'.
Boris Johnson comes back and starts a splinter party of four Tories consisting solely of members of his own family.
He would also need to find a way to engineer an offspring into the lords to ensure representation in the upper house. No idea at all if he could pull that off.
I'm sure he could pass emergency legislation to expand the numbers of the Lords.
R&W 10.000 sample poll is cataclysmic for the tories. 26% labour lead. I wonder when the tory campaign is just going to unravel completely. Candidates and members must be thinking: why bother? Wow.
If Fromage declares for Clakton today, that will be the killing blow to the tory party.... then it could go totally off the rails into Canada 1992 territory.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform UK 14% (+1) Liberal Democrat 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Redfield
Yeah at this stage my prediction they wouldn’t sink below 150 seats is looking rocky…
Campaign looks to be focussing minds, but against them.
True enough, but are they really 13% behind with the over 65s? Noone else other than Techne has them losing the grey vote. Redfields age curve is ridiculously flat. That's not to say wrong but I just don't buy it, and it's been consistent with them for weeks.
It seems unlikely, but it's not implausible that my fellow +65s have shifted to Labour a bit. I'm not sure that the Tories are offering that age group much more than Labour are - the unfreezing of the tax allowance for state pensioners is small beer. And for many of us oldies, improving the NHS is the most urgent need.
And, I've said this before but will say it again, many of us oldies vote with our children and grandchildren in mind - not just our own interests. The Tories haven't offered mine much to write home about.
Fair comments all but I'd expect everyone else to be finding this and nobody except Techne is (and its not a one off, R and W consistently have recently) its out of line with the rest. They have weighted regionally too. 43 20 behind in the SE but 44 25 only in London holding just about everything. It just 'feels' wrong even if the lead is perfectly probable compared to yougov etc
Not sure what I think of cricket being played at a temporary venue in “New York”, which is actually 30 miles from New York, and with seemingly little attempt being made to reach out to the local population beyond those who are already fans of the sport.
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A great grandchild of Boris falling off a paddle board c.2124?
What comes next? National Conservatives, Unionist Conservatives, Indpeendent Conservatives, Con-Labs, and a book 'The strange death of Conservative England'.
Has to be a murdered dog somewhere in the mix. Possibly cooked and eaten.
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A new centre right party.
If you are aged about 16-late 20s, are interested in a career in politics and want to be ahead of the curve then this - and the next 12-24 months - could be the time to very quietly join the Conservative party and get yourself involved. They have a better chance than any other currently identifiable group of being the political in-crowd in 10-15 years time.
Not sure what I think of cricket being played at a temporary venue in “New York”, which is actually 30 miles from New York, and with seemingly little attempt being made to reach out to the local population beyond those who are already fans of the sport.
Quite so. The world is falling apart. International cricket in New York? Do me a favour.
They built somewhere with 34,000 seats, and literally dozens have turned up to watch the first match there, the TV director trying his best to avoid showing that there’s no-one there.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform 14% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-27/5
Farage will be looking closely at this poll.
I'm beginning to think it would be best if the Conservatives were just finished off in one go, like their Canadian counterparts, to give someone else a chance of representing centre right voters.
I have said it before but I really do think we are reaching a point where there is no way back for the Tory brand. It’s entirely plausible to me that the centre right needs a new label because it is simply too toxic.
I think it became clear after 2019, that having won a working majority, they had no idea what to do with it, because most believed in nothing.
And, while the main culprits are the last three PM's, the previous leaders must take a share of the blame. They made a point of selecting very flakey candidates, who became very flakey MP's. And, the whole business of protecting core voters, while neglecting potential future voters goes back at least a generation.
I need to see how Derbyshire County Council react to being told that their road humps (and the barriers in the photo) are an unlawful obstruction on a public highway under S137 of the Highways Act 1980, and must have a 1.5m flat route created through them. Easy to say, difficult to make happen if they drag their feet.
I'm sure you know this but Derbyshire's cycling officer is very good IMO - I'm sure she'd be receptive.
If you could PM me a contact that would be appreciated. I would be putting in a series of about 10 requests via the Public Highways web form.
I can't PM you that I can see, but it's Carol Parsons at the usual firstname.lastname@derbyshire.gov.uk.
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A new centre right party.
If you are aged about 16-late 20s, are interested in a career in politics and want to be ahead of the curve then this - and the next 12-24 months - could be the time to very quietly join the Conservative party and get yourself involved. They have a better chance than any other currently identifiable group of being the political in-crowd in 10-15 years time.
It's known as 'buying on the dips'.
I agree with you. Even if the tories turn out to be finished as an electoral force (which seems unlikely despite some of the hyperbole in the posts above) it'll be valuable to get the experience with all the institutional backing etc still mostly intact.
I have also kept up my membership, not because I have any interest in a career in politics (frankly not possible - too many skeletons in cupboard) but because I want to vote for the sane (less insane?) one in the inevitable leadership election. I doubt they will win, but got to at least try.
It took 12 and a half years for the Canadian centre-right to go from being reduced to 2 seats to getting back into government, which I suppose isn't all that long considering how bad the situation was for them.
R&W 10.000 sample poll is cataclysmic for the tories. 26% labour lead. I wonder when the tory campaign is just going to unravel completely. Candidates and members must be thinking: why bother? Wow.
We were told earlier that, after her "success" on this morning's broadcast round, we'll be hearing much more from Badenoch over the remainder of the campaign.
Clearly that means that the only people prepared to stick their head above the parapet are those with more of an interest in the forthcoming leadership race than they do in the general election.
Where's Braverman? Is she AWOL or is she plotting?
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform 14% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-27/5
Farage will be looking closely at this poll.
I'm beginning to think it would be best if the Conservatives were just finished off in one go, like their Canadian counterparts, to give someone else a chance of representing centre right voters.
I have said it before but I really do think we are reaching a point where there is no way back for the Tory brand. It’s entirely plausible to me that the centre right needs a new label because it is simply too toxic.
Not, of course, impossible but the odds are stacked against it. The strong probability is that sometime within the next 3-10 years a party with the label 'Conservative' and with constitutional continuity with the current shambles will be in front in the polls.
Just as the outfit about the run the country has linguistic and constitutional continuity with Corbyn's party.
If I were young, centre right, and politically ambitious I would be extremely wary of any new factions. I would join the Tories (waiting a bit after the election and keeping a low profile) and, while prepared to jump ship to the new Peelites or whatever they would be, I would probably not have to. And I would read up the history of the left/centre left from 1975-1997 with great care.
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A new centre right party.
If you are aged about 16-late 20s, are interested in a career in politics and want to be ahead of the curve then this - and the next 12-24 months - could be the time to very quietly join the Conservative party and get yourself involved. They have a better chance than any other currently identifiable group of being the political in-crowd in 10-15 years time.
It's known as 'buying on the dips'.
Have you seen Conservative favourability amongst the young, and that is counting the middle aged as young. Can't imagine the oddities who are today's young conservatives as they were truly weird ten+ years ago.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform 14% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-27/5
There’s got to be a non-zero chance of someone on team Tory having an emotional meltdown at this rate. The Tories deserve a hammering I’m not sure they entirely deserve this though.
The Conservative Party has arguably been in death throes since joining the EU back in the Thatcher era. Blair continued the neoliberal turn and the Tories were not in government again until the financial crash - and even then they couldn't manage to get a majority. There has arguably been one or two small moments of governing Conservative majorities since the Major government - the brief post referendum period before May lost the majority and the pre Covid moment for Johnson.
Outside of that we had the coalition, the pre Brexit Tory majority (which the referendum made ungovernable with Blue on Blue attacks) the May minority government, the Johnson minority government and the post Covid ungoverning majorities held by Truss and Sunak. To me, this looks like a party slowly dying and becoming irrelevant as their old economic positions become the accepted positions of the supposed centre left party and any attempt to go further right on culture war / social issues lead to weird policy focusses or right wing lunacy about the secret cabal trying to wokify Western Culture, which can always be out done by the even more right wing weirdo freaks who never actually have to worry about accidentally ending up in government.
The Tory party is dead - the Labour party is the new centre right party in British politics.
That is nonsense on stilts, factually inaccurate and laced with a heavy dose of wishful thinking.
It would be of interest to me to know which parts of that you disagree with and why if this is to be a back and forth - if you don't want a back and forth then I'll note that an not respond further after this.
In terms of economic policy: Wes Streeting is arguing that the private sector can take more NHS business. The Labour party is not discussing anything about turning back the pseudo privatisation of schools and education via the academisation route. Labour still seems to be focussed on market solutions to the housing crisis, accepting the Tory framing of home ownership and reduced council houses as the norm. The Labour party has distanced itself from the unions that are fighting for workers' rights and wage increases after the corona virus pandemic (which has waylayed many working age people, myself included) and inflation (which has hit the working poor the hardest). This is more than Thatcher could have dreamed of getting away with, even after accepting Blair as her heir.
In terms of Tory majority governing: Cameroonism worked with Orange Book Liberals because it was market focussed solutions without the social conservatism that had bogged down the Tories during the post Major years. This voter coalition ended when the Brexit referendum happened, with many Orange Book Liberals who had willingly voted Tory post coalition were revolted by the idea of leaving the EU. Governing the Tory party after the referendum was nigh impossible - which was why May called an election. At which she failed to get a governing majority. This continued until Johnson - who won a governing majority based on ending austerity and resolving the Brexit question. This governing majority came to an end post Covid, with too many Tories thinking Johnson had gone too far to the left with his willingness to spend his way out of the pandemic. Truss blipped and did not govern - and Sunak has barely governed since entering number 10; he and his government have been fire fighting issues as they arise and they have typically been fires of his own making.
I think Tory ideology has won in the UK; I just don't think the Tory party are the party who carry the flame of that any more.
I have but I think it's inappropriate to share on a family website
You´re not kidding. Its a total Tory massacre. Like they struggle to keep even third place massacre.
Surely it can´t be so?
It's FPTP. They could get trapped like the Lib Dems. A few percentage points and that's it.
(The inverse is true. Even a modest recovery brings a substantial number of seats).
Not entirely sure that's true in this case, Eab. Tactical voting could yet prove a cruel twist of the knife.
Must say I'm feeling for my Conservative friends on here, people like Hyufd and SeanF. They deserve better.
I would also comment in passing that it is looking increasingly like the July 4th date was picked for internal party reasons rather than with a view to minimising losses. Sad if true.
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A new centre right party.
If you are aged about 16-late 20s, are interested in a career in politics and want to be ahead of the curve then this - and the next 12-24 months - could be the time to very quietly join the Conservative party and get yourself involved. They have a better chance than any other currently identifiable group of being the political in-crowd in 10-15 years time.
It's known as 'buying on the dips'.
Reminds me of the fact that we first bought an Apple Macintosh computer in 1994, just when it looked like the company might go out of business. It would have been a good time to buy shares in the company.
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A new centre right party.
If you are aged about 16-late 20s, are interested in a career in politics and want to be ahead of the curve then this - and the next 12-24 months - could be the time to very quietly join the Conservative party and get yourself involved. They have a better chance than any other currently identifiable group of being the political in-crowd in 10-15 years time.
It's known as 'buying on the dips'.
Have you seen Conservative favourability amongst the young, and that is counting the middle aged as young. Can't imagine the oddities who are today's young conservatives as they were truly weird ten+ years ago.
Agree, of course. But unless we enter a one party state we are going to have two parties, and one of them is going to be the successor to Heseltine/Clarke/Thatcher/Patten/Hunt. Let's call it centre right.
Which party would a young, ambitious, talented person join who has centre type views, sees a whole crowd of the ambitious peers joining Labour, wants to spot a gap in the market for political careers and wants to be MP for a Lincolnshire/southern rural seat? The Tories are currently the only option.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform 14% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-27/5
Farage will be looking closely at this poll.
I'm beginning to think it would be best if the Conservatives were just finished off in one go, like their Canadian counterparts, to give someone else a chance of representing centre right voters.
I have said it before but I really do think we are reaching a point where there is no way back for the Tory brand. It’s entirely plausible to me that the centre right needs a new label because it is simply too toxic.
This is exactly what people said about Labour in 2019-21. In a FPTP system the Tories only disappear if another party replaces them. It could be the Lib Dems, if they want to. It might have been Reform, if Farage had wanted to (but he doesn't).
In the absence of anyone else it will be the Conservative and Unionist Party.
Tomorrow evening might make a difference, but I guess depends how many actually watch it (and crucially, how it is chopped up, packaged and distributed in the days after).
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform 14% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-27/5
Farage will be looking closely at this poll.
I'm beginning to think it would be best if the Conservatives were just finished off in one go, like their Canadian counterparts, to give someone else a chance of representing centre right voters.
I have said it before but I really do think we are reaching a point where there is no way back for the Tory brand. It’s entirely plausible to me that the centre right needs a new label because it is simply too toxic.
This is exactly what people said about Labour in 2019-21. In a FPTP system the Tories only disappear if another party replaces them. It could be the Lib Dems, if they want to. It might have been Reform, if Farage had wanted to (but he doesn't).
In the absence of anyone else it will be the Conservative and Unionist Party.
If Reform outpoll the Conservatives then it might be Reform.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform 14% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-27/5
There’s got to be a non-zero chance of someone on team Tory having an emotional meltdown at this rate. The Tories deserve a hammering I’m not sure they entirely deserve this though.
The Conservative Party has arguably been in death throes since joining the EU back in the Thatcher era. Blair continued the neoliberal turn and the Tories were not in government again until the financial crash - and even then they couldn't manage to get a majority. There has arguably been one or two small moments of governing Conservative majorities since the Major government - the brief post referendum period before May lost the majority and the pre Covid moment for Johnson.
Outside of that we had the coalition, the pre Brexit Tory majority (which the referendum made ungovernable with Blue on Blue attacks) the May minority government, the Johnson minority government and the post Covid ungoverning majorities held by Truss and Sunak. To me, this looks like a party slowly dying and becoming irrelevant as their old economic positions become the accepted positions of the supposed centre left party and any attempt to go further right on culture war / social issues lead to weird policy focusses or right wing lunacy about the secret cabal trying to wokify Western Culture, which can always be out done by the even more right wing weirdo freaks who never actually have to worry about accidentally ending up in government.
The Tory party is dead - the Labour party is the new centre right party in British politics.
That is nonsense on stilts, factually inaccurate and laced with a heavy dose of wishful thinking.
It would be of interest to me to know which parts of that you disagree with and why if this is to be a back and forth - if you don't want a back and forth then I'll note that an not respond further after this.
In terms of economic policy: Wes Streeting is arguing that the private sector can take more NHS business. The Labour party is not discussing anything about turning back the pseudo privatisation of schools and education via the academisation route. Labour still seems to be focussed on market solutions to the housing crisis, accepting the Tory framing of home ownership and reduced council houses as the norm. The Labour party has distanced itself from the unions that are fighting for workers' rights and wage increases after the corona virus pandemic (which has waylayed many working age people, myself included) and inflation (which has hit the working poor the hardest). This is more than Thatcher could have dreamed of getting away with, even after accepting Blair as her heir.
In terms of Tory majority governing: Cameroonism worked with Orange Book Liberals because it was market focussed solutions without the social conservatism that had bogged down the Tories during the post Major years. This voter coalition ended when the Brexit referendum happened, with many Orange Book Liberals who had willingly voted Tory post coalition were revolted by the idea of leaving the EU. Governing the Tory party after the referendum was nigh impossible - which was why May called an election. At which she failed to get a governing majority. This continued until Johnson - who won a governing majority based on ending austerity and resolving the Brexit question. This governing majority came to an end post Covid, with too many Tories thinking Johnson had gone too far to the left with his willingness to spend his way out of the pandemic. Truss blipped and did not govern - and Sunak has barely governed since entering number 10; he and his government have been fire fighting issues as they arise and they have typically been fires of his own making.
I think Tory ideology has won in the UK; I just don't think the Tory party are the party who carry the flame of that any more.
Labour have definitely leaned into the social democratic end of their broad church of late. That gives the illusion of the points you make, it doesn’t make them true. Labour is still a party of the left, and certainly aren’t promoting Toryism.
As to the Conservatives I doubt they are dying any more than they were dead after the corn law reform or after 1906. They definitely need a rethink to apply their underlying values to modern conditions. One thing they could profitably do is to finally bury Thatcher, that way they might have a hope of understanding her better rather than the caricature they’ve built for themselves.
Well it’s the most boring election in decades. Starmer is genetically boring. Sunak can’t afford to be interesting. There are no scenarios where Davey is relevant enough to be interesting. It’s 6 weeks of watching a slow motion car wreck followed by 18 hours of analysing the car wreck in real time.
I don't think an election where the party dominant for the past 200 years faces obliteration is boring.
It's exciting waiting for this emergency announcement. 😊
Haha. 'Emergency announcement'. What an absolute bell.
We've got at least fifteen more years of his nonsense as well. On the plus side, to quote Saul Goodman, if I ever get an anal polyp I'll know what to call it.
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
A new centre right party.
If you are aged about 16-late 20s, are interested in a career in politics and want to be ahead of the curve then this - and the next 12-24 months - could be the time to very quietly join the Conservative party and get yourself involved. They have a better chance than any other currently identifiable group of being the political in-crowd in 10-15 years time.
It's known as 'buying on the dips'.
Have you seen Conservative favourability amongst the young, and that is counting the middle aged as young. Can't imagine the oddities who are today's young conservatives as they were truly weird ten+ years ago.
Agree, of course. But unless we enter a one party state we are going to have two parties, and one of them is going to be the successor to Heseltine/Clarke/Thatcher/Patten/Hunt. Let's call it centre right.
Which party would a young, ambitious, talented person join who has centre type views, sees a whole crowd of the ambitious peers joining Labour, wants to spot a gap in the market for political careers and wants to be MP for a Lincolnshire/southern rural seat? The Tories are currently the only option.
Think it already exists - it is called the Labour Party.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
I'm guessing that implies vote shares of c.42% to 30%.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
The tories would probably take that today if offered.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
It's in line with what I am expecting. Most CON supporters would privately take this!
Which party would a young, ambitious, talented person join who has centre type views, sees a whole crowd of the ambitious peers joining Labour, wants to spot a gap in the market for political careers and wants to be MP for a Lincolnshire/southern rural seat? The Tories are currently the only option.
I've no idea about those localities, but if Labour win a landslide (which they won't) I would have thought mostly THEY would be the party for ambitious young non-mouthfoaming rightwingers to join.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
This will probably be the kindest poll for the Conservatives today.
By "kindest", I mean they'll only be slaughtered. Not totally destroyed.
🚨🚨 Our first @Moreincommon_@TheNewsAgents MRP of the campaign projects a Labour majority of 114 🔴 Labour 382 (+180) 🔵 Conservative 180 (-185) 🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19) 🟡 SNP 35 (-13) 🟢Plaid 3 (-1) 🟩 Green 1 (-) Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
Comments
But... maybe?
Foreign Secretary - Brown
Home Secretary - Blair
Health - Cameron
Education - Johnson
Innovation - Truss
Business and Trade - Sunak
Labour leads the Conservatives among EVERY age cohort polled.
Westminster VI, By Age (31 May - 2 June):
Labour's lead by age group:
18-24: 38%
25-34: 31%
35-44: 31%
45-54: 24%
55-64: 17%
65+: 13%
Outside of that we had the coalition, the pre Brexit Tory majority (which the referendum made ungovernable with Blue on Blue attacks) the May minority government, the Johnson minority government and the post Covid ungoverning majorities held by Truss and Sunak. To me, this looks like a party slowly dying and becoming irrelevant as their old economic positions become the accepted positions of the supposed centre left party and any attempt to go further right on culture war / social issues lead to weird policy focusses or right wing lunacy about the secret cabal trying to wokify Western Culture, which can always be out done by the even more right wing weirdo freaks who never actually have to worry about accidentally ending up in government.
The Tory party is dead - the Labour party is the new centre right party in British politics.
And, I've said this before but will say it again, many of us oldies vote with our children and grandchildren in mind - not just our own interests. The Tories haven't offered mine much to write home about.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/06/02/usa-twenty20-world-cup-venues-fan-interest-new-york/
https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/icc-men-s-t20-world-cup-2024-1411166/sri-lanka-vs-south-africa-4th-match-group-d-1415704/live-cricket-score
Surely it can´t be so?
They have weighted regionally too.
43 20 behind in the SE but 44 25 only in London holding just about everything.
It just 'feels' wrong even if the lead is perfectly probable compared to yougov etc
Possibly cooked and eaten.
It's known as 'buying on the dips'.
@ginadavidsonlbc
NEW: John Swinney tells @LBC @LBCNews the Conservatives move to make sex “biological sex” in the Equality Act is about undermining devolution
@euanmccolm
other things John Swinney thinks are about undermining devolution:
1. Scented candles
2. The Ramones
3. Pot Noodles
@jk_rowling
4. Darts
5. Beagles
6. The word 'guesstimate'
(The inverse is true. Even a modest recovery brings a substantial number of seats).
And, while the main culprits are the last three PM's, the previous leaders must take a share of the blame. They made a point of selecting very flakey candidates, who became very flakey MP's. And, the whole business of protecting core voters, while neglecting potential future voters goes back at least a generation.
I have also kept up my membership, not because I have any interest in a career in politics (frankly not possible - too many skeletons in cupboard) but because I want to vote for the sane (less insane?) one in the inevitable leadership election. I doubt they will win, but got to at least try.
Labour are more trusted than the Conservatives on EVERY policy issue prompted.
Which party do voters trust most on...?
(Labour | Conservative)
NHS (43% | 16%)
Education (40% | 18%)
Economy (37% | 23%)
Immigration (32% | 20%)
🇺🇦 (31% | 23%)
I don't see Natty Servs, or gender recognition on the list...
/s
Clearly that means that the only people prepared to stick their head above the parapet are those with more of an interest in the forthcoming leadership race than they do in the general election.
Where's Braverman? Is she AWOL or is she plotting?
Cons 24 (-352)
Lib 51 (+43)
Ref 0 (0)
Green 1 (0)
SNP 14 (-34)
PC 4 (+2)
I step away from the computer for a couple of hours and the Tories are... well... the words "Stepmom" and "Pornhub" come to mind.
Just as the outfit about the run the country has linguistic and constitutional continuity with Corbyn's party.
If I were young, centre right, and politically ambitious I would be extremely wary of any new factions. I would join the Tories (waiting a bit after the election and keeping a low profile) and, while prepared to jump ship to the new Peelites or whatever they would be, I would probably not have to. And I would read up the history of the left/centre left from 1975-1997 with great care.
In terms of economic policy: Wes Streeting is arguing that the private sector can take more NHS business. The Labour party is not discussing anything about turning back the pseudo privatisation of schools and education via the academisation route. Labour still seems to be focussed on market solutions to the housing crisis, accepting the Tory framing of home ownership and reduced council houses as the norm. The Labour party has distanced itself from the unions that are fighting for workers' rights and wage increases after the corona virus pandemic (which has waylayed many working age people, myself included) and inflation (which has hit the working poor the hardest). This is more than Thatcher could have dreamed of getting away with, even after accepting Blair as her heir.
In terms of Tory majority governing: Cameroonism worked with Orange Book Liberals because it was market focussed solutions without the social conservatism that had bogged down the Tories during the post Major years. This voter coalition ended when the Brexit referendum happened, with many Orange Book Liberals who had willingly voted Tory post coalition were revolted by the idea of leaving the EU. Governing the Tory party after the referendum was nigh impossible - which was why May called an election. At which she failed to get a governing majority. This continued until Johnson - who won a governing majority based on ending austerity and resolving the Brexit question. This governing majority came to an end post Covid, with too many Tories thinking Johnson had gone too far to the left with his willingness to spend his way out of the pandemic. Truss blipped and did not govern - and Sunak has barely governed since entering number 10; he and his government have been fire fighting issues as they arise and they have typically been fires of his own making.
I think Tory ideology has won in the UK; I just don't think the Tory party are the party who carry the flame of that any more.
Must say I'm feeling for my Conservative friends on here, people like Hyufd and SeanF. They deserve better.
I would also comment in passing that it is looking increasingly like the July 4th date was picked for internal party reasons rather than with a view to minimising losses. Sad if true.
Of course, somewhere in between you've also got the small matter of an "Emergency" Nigel Farage broadcast...
Which party would a young, ambitious, talented person join who has centre type views, sees a whole crowd of the ambitious peers joining Labour, wants to spot a gap in the market for political careers and wants to be MP for a Lincolnshire/southern rural seat? The Tories are currently the only option.
In the absence of anyone else it will be the Conservative and Unionist Party.
Tomorrow evening might make a difference, but I guess depends how many actually watch it (and crucially, how it is chopped up, packaged and distributed in the days after).
Ni-GEL
Ni-GEL
C’mon BIG NIGE, finish the Tories. Do everyone a favour
As to the Conservatives I doubt they are dying any more than they were dead after the corn law reform or after 1906. They definitely need a rethink to apply their underlying values to modern conditions. One thing they could profitably do is to finally bury Thatcher, that way they might have a hope of understanding her better rather than the caricature they’ve built for themselves.
You know what they say about reasoning from false premises.
We've got at least fifteen more years of his nonsense as well. On the plus side, to quote Saul Goodman, if I ever get an anal polyp I'll know what to call it.
Think it already exists - it is called the Labour Party.
Labour 385, Con 180, SNP 35, Lib Dem 30.
🔴 Labour 382 (+180)
🔵 Conservative 180 (-185)
🟠 Lib Dem 30 (+19)
🟡 SNP 35 (-13)
🟢Plaid 3 (-1)
🟩 Green 1 (-)
Changes on 2019 actual seat totals
By "kindest", I mean they'll only be slaughtered. Not totally destroyed.
https://x.com/BNHWalker/status/1797646199652274184
https://x.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1797646074427175221