I am happy to debate the trans issue but surely politically the Tories going on about this, this week, shows they’ve completely given up. Aren’t there bigger issues?
Are there any bigger issues where the Tory party are on the right side of the debate and will get them a few more votes?
The issue is that most bigger issues are things the Tory party have been in control of for the past 14 years so the default response to say we will build 100 new GP surgeries is what stopped you doing so 2 weeks ago?
You highlight the reason why the conservatives are going to lose big time, and it will be the same when they publish their manifesto
However, as far as I am concerned I have dismissed the notion that the conservatives will be relevant for quite sometime, so now Labour have to be pit under the microscope, and despite their insistence everything is costed of course its not and by many many billions
There is a suggestion that Reeves will attack private pensions as this is one area she has not raised as exempt and of course IHT is the other
No matter, tax rises and spending cuts are as certain as PM Starmer by the 5th July
Lots of tax rises will be coming in the Special Budget in September
Yes Rachel may restrict tax relief on pension contributions to 20% which will save Treasury lots of bns. Also maybe restrict annual pensions contribution allowance to £30,000 and bring back the lifetime limit
Lets hope so. I completely agree with the state subsidising peoples retirement but only up to a comfortable level around normal retirement age. Why on earth are we subsidising the supposedly most productive, often trained at our expense like doctors, to retire at 50 still on top 20% of the population level earnings post retirement.
The problem with the highest paid medics is that whatever we do provides perverse incentives. Tax them at the current tax rates without pension relief, and they may well look at the current marginal tax rates, realise they could get paid 3/4 of their current take home pay to only work 3 days a week and spend the rest of the week improving their golf swing.
Given them pension relief, and they get to about 50, pay the mortgage off, and either go part-time or retire.
Fundementally, if you can arrange to earn enough by the time you're 50 to pay for a comfortable lifestyle for the rest of your life, for a lot of people, why would you keep on working? But the logical conclusion to that is that the only fix to make them work longer is to pay doctors less - which just means they trot off to Australia in even greater numbers.
I think what all this illustrates most plainly is the folly of progressively increasing tax rates; if income tax was a flat 20% rather than progressive bands, then incentives to drop to 3 days a week become much weaker, as do the incentives to load up the pension and retire earlier.
The other side of the coin is that the cost of doctors is a function of supply and demand; there is no shortage of applicants for medical school, but because we restrict training (because training doctors is expensive) supply of doctors is very limited. What we could do with is training more doctors (increasing supply, so they will cost less to hire), but then somehow saddle them with the cost of their training in such a way that if they go abroad or decide to retire at 50 they have to pay it back in full. As for how we might actually do that, answers on a postcard...
IIRC (@Foxy can presumably confirm / deny) the acute problem right now is lack of training capacity for mid-career medics which, in turn, is restricting the flow of medics who go on to become consultants. Supply at the bottom end is better, even if not actually in surplus. Consultant supply is bloody awful.
There’s a tension between consultant availability for treating patients & consultant availability for teaching the next generation of consultants. The “optimal” thing to do is probably to boost teaching capacity a lot & accept that patient delivery is just going to have to come second for some years to come until we’ve redressed the balance between future needs & current ones, but what government wants to do that? Much easier to ram your head into the sand (as the current government has gleefully done for the past decade) and ignore the problem until it becomes acute. We got on the wrong side of this balance (for short term financial reasons, natch) some years ago & are now screwed whatever we do.
Now that future has arrived & we have some tough choices to make, as Blair liked to say. (In my opinion Blair always took the easy choice instead of the electorally difficult one whilst making a lot of noise about difficult choices. The exception to this rule, weirdly, was the Iraq War.)
“Newcastle” - a prosperous university city, market town and communication and retail centre, enjoys some superb Georgian and early Victorian architecture (29 Grade I listed, 49 Grade II*)
It often gets confused with the wider Tyneside region - so some think “Jarrow March” when they hear of it.
Oh well, more space for those who know to enjoy it.
Separately I was slightly surprised to see Brighton having the second highest population density after London - the Georgians knew how to build high density and still create pleasant cities.
Quite right too. Amazing how anyone could think otherwise.
The North-east is where a lot of the energy and the money for London came from to begin with.
I need to see how Derbyshire County Council react to being told that their road humps (and the barriers in the photo) are an unlawful obstruction on a public highway under S137 of the Highways Act 1980, and must have a 1.5m flat route created through them. Easy to say, difficult to make happen if they drag their feet.
I'm sure you know this but Derbyshire's cycling officer is very good IMO - I'm sure she'd be receptive.
If you could PM me a contact that would be appreciated. I would be putting in a series of about 10 requests via the Public Highways web form.
What I'm looking at with this one is the new National Trust commitment towards active travel (they are very car-brained especially for rural properties) at their AGM last November, and seeing if I can find a way to get things rolling at Hardwick Hall. Not sure if I have mentioned it here - it's possible, as I've ben chattering about it.
It started with the normal crapulous cycle - cycle parking is crap at HH, so no one visits by cycle and uses it, but no one visits by cycle and uses it because it is crap. Exactly the same as "no cycling facilities needed on dangerous rural roads, as no one cycles on them .... guess why?".
And then on to "but if we need to improve it, how will they get there" - so I need a network of safe, useable walking and wheeling routes from all the communities within about 10-15 miles to reach the half million people who live nearby.
The Stockley Trail may be part of such a route.
NT do things in some places like 10% off if you display a cycle helmet or a bus ticket. To me they look serious but are going to need help everywhere to make it happen.
A poll (of sorts!) NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey
Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.
Labour 46 % (up 7%) Conservative 25 % (down 3%) Reform UK 18 % (down 2%) Lib Dem 6% (no change) SNP 2% (no change) Green 2% (down 1%) Another party 1% (no change) Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)
I've been there twice. Unfortunately one of those times coincided with what I think was their hottest ever heatwave and of course the hotel didn't have any air conditioning. That was in about 2008.
Intriguing but barely relevant poll of GB News viewers has Labour with a massive lead and slightly higher propensity to Reform as you’d imagine. This is genuinely in the just a bit of fun category.
Raw Data 22, 14, 22, 12, 17, 27, 23, 23, 23, 27, 19, 16, 20, 25, 24, 20, 25
These are all supposed to be estimates of the same thing. With range of 15 points and the largest two being over double the smallest estimate. It suggest that either the sampling methods or the corrections for don't knows is hopelessly hit and miss.
A poll (of sorts!) NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey
Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.
Labour 46 % (up 7%) Conservative 25 % (down 3%) Reform UK 18 % (down 2%) Lib Dem 6% (no change) SNP 2% (no change) Green 2% (down 1%) Another party 1% (no change) Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)
If they can’t retain the GB News vote they really are done for.
A poll (of sorts!) NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey
Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.
Labour 46 % (up 7%) Conservative 25 % (down 3%) Reform UK 18 % (down 2%) Lib Dem 6% (no change) SNP 2% (no change) Green 2% (down 1%) Another party 1% (no change) Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)
“Newcastle” - a prosperous university city, market town and communication and retail centre, enjoys some superb Georgian and early Victorian architecture (29 Grade I listed, 49 Grade II*)
It often gets confused with the wider Tyneside region - so some think “Jarrow March” when they hear of it.
Oh well, more space for those who know to enjoy it.
Separately I was slightly surprised to see Brighton having the second highest population density after London - the Georgians knew how to build high density and still create pleasant cities.
Quite right too. Amazing how anyone could think otherwise.
The North-east is where a lot of the energy and the money for London came from to begin with.
There’s a very good walk along the banks of the Tyne which highlights the region’s history. At the start of the 20th Century as well as being a major exporting port (half the coal exported in the world went down the Tyne it was also a major centre of innovation, - the “Silicon Glen” of its age - from steam turbines to electric bulbs and major armaments. Retail parks and call centres now - but we need more “Victorian” cities like Newcastle, Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow to thrive as they once did.
Still off-topic my photo of the day is 30 years of discrimination in plain sight. This is slightly nerd.
I did a gentle audit on the Stockley Trail near the M1 J29 on Sunday; it is a 2 mile stretch of the former Midland Railway with goodies such as a couple of nature reserves and mountain bike tracks, rail gradient pathways and so on.
It has been advertised as a "multiuser path for walkers, cyclists, horse riders and wheelchair users" for about 3 decades. The piccie below is the car park, showing disabled spaces, and barriers preventing access to the trail by mobility aid. These are also vintage mid-1990s. The only alternative for mobility aid users is to wheel yourself through a bush, a hole in the fence, and over rough, unfinished tarmac.
At the other end of the trail the lane has 6 full width road humps - uncomfortable or unusable in a mobility aid without a motor vehicle. The implicit model is "bring your wheelchair using relative, or your dog, or your children, in the car, and take them for a walk".
The really ironic thing is that all the rest is good - farmgates and 1.5m gaps wide side by side all the way - if you can get into the end of it. I never understand why these aren't thought through, and never joined up in the head of the designers, or on the ground. Plus there's miles more of ex-railway joined to the end of this. We have a network of ex-railways covering most of the country that could be superb.
Fortunately, unusually here the whole thing is dedicated as a Bridleway (Glapwell BW1, Ault Hucknall BW23, Scarsdale BW38) - which hardly ever happens for these trails.
I need to see how Derbyshire County Council react to being told that their road humps (and the barriers in the photo) are an unlawful obstruction on a public highway under S137 of the Highways Act 1980, and must have a 1.5m flat route created through them. Easy to say, difficult to make happen if they drag their feet.
That's an astonishingly apt W3W - one has to overcome the obstacles, possibly becoming frantic, but slowness is guaranteed
Agree, as usual, on the substantive points.
There often is if you look.
My favourite is still probably the famous Kerplunk Barriers near RHS Bridgwater (I did not post a pic over the w/e so I am assuming 50% of quota persists), which are 4-fold chicanes on a gritty slippy path to "slow cyclists down", where it's impossible to slow down because it's a steep hill and wheels instantly lock.
It's supposed ot be a major route to RHS Bridgewater for walking and wheeling, but no one in a mobility aid will go down that unless completely deranged.
The real problem is that it's a one in ten hill (national standard max allowed 1:20) because they f*cked up the profile of the path. They were able to dig down for the houses either side, but no one bothered. It's fixable but difficult to make happen.
Apart from anything else, that is one of the ugliest pieces of street 'furniture' that I have ever seen. Which morons design this absurd clutter? I have just returned from France, where they have much more cycling and manage to keep their towns very well presented and largely free of idiot barriers and assorted rummage.
Zara considers their Metro Centre store their Newcastle store for a reason
But - it just isn't. And it's particularly unhelpful if, say, you're in Newcastle City Centre and looking for Zara. I find the concept of not understanding geography except through the nearest big city slightly painful. Its as if we don't think people can hold more than 10 places in their head at once. Can we not expect a bit more of people? I was reading something recently - in the Guardian I think - which mentioned Buxton and described it as 'near Manchester'. Which from the perspective of London is true, I suppose, but 'Derbyshire' seems to paint it much better. See also: cricket teams named 'Birmingham' rather than 'Warwickshire'; or service stations named 'Birmingham North' rather than 'Hilton Park' (happily the trend for the latter has gone firmly into reverse).
A poll (of sorts!) NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey
Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.
Labour 46 % (up 7%) Conservative 25 % (down 3%) Reform UK 18 % (down 2%) Lib Dem 6% (no change) SNP 2% (no change) Green 2% (down 1%) Another party 1% (no change) Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)
If they can’t retain the GB News vote they really are done for.
And (in light of what may be about to befall), Lab is geater than Con+Ref.
If (ha!) GBN is intended as a propoganda outlet to brainwash its viewers, it's a pretty ineffective one.
A poll (of sorts!) NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey
Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.
Labour 46 % (up 7%) Conservative 25 % (down 3%) Reform UK 18 % (down 2%) Lib Dem 6% (no change) SNP 2% (no change) Green 2% (down 1%) Another party 1% (no change) Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)
If they can’t retain the GB News vote they really are done for.
I overheard a GB News lady talking to a couple of (I inferred) strangers on the train the other day – she was saying that the majority of their viewers are Labour and that they are a "very balanced" station that entertains a variety of viewpoints. I rarely watch it so I don't know how true the latter part of her testimony is.
A poll (of sorts!) NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey
Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.
Labour 46 % (up 7%) Conservative 25 % (down 3%) Reform UK 18 % (down 2%) Lib Dem 6% (no change) SNP 2% (no change) Green 2% (down 1%) Another party 1% (no change) Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)
A poll (of sorts!) NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey
Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.
Labour 46 % (up 7%) Conservative 25 % (down 3%) Reform UK 18 % (down 2%) Lib Dem 6% (no change) SNP 2% (no change) Green 2% (down 1%) Another party 1% (no change) Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)
I didn't know John Lewis did opinion polls!
Never knowingly underpolled
Edit: Bugger. Seconds in it. I shouldn't have waited and checked to see if anyone had already said it
A poll (of sorts!) NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey
Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.
Labour 46 % (up 7%) Conservative 25 % (down 3%) Reform UK 18 % (down 2%) Lib Dem 6% (no change) SNP 2% (no change) Green 2% (down 1%) Another party 1% (no change) Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)
Well it’s the most boring election in decades. Starmer is genetically boring. Sunak can’t afford to be interesting. There are no scenarios where Davey is relevant enough to be interesting. It’s 6 weeks of watching a slow motion car wreck followed by 18 hours of analysing the car wreck in real time.
So what size majority would that be? Is that Labour most seats ever?
Yes, previous record is 1997 (419).
Record for any party in the age of universal suffrage is 1931 when the Conservatives won 470, but that was somewhat skewed by the number of constituencies where they faced only one opponent due to various electoral pacts.
“Newcastle” - a prosperous university city, market town and communication and retail centre, enjoys some superb Georgian and early Victorian architecture (29 Grade I listed, 49 Grade II*)
It often gets confused with the wider Tyneside region - so some think “Jarrow March” when they hear of it.
Oh well, more space for those who know to enjoy it.
Separately I was slightly surprised to see Brighton having the second highest population density after London - the Georgians knew how to build high density and still create pleasant cities.
On Youtube there is a video of Ian Nairn visiting Newcastle in the early seventies. Well worth catching if you can. He adored Newcastle. Cannot find the link
Nairn made some interesting early travelogues around the UK. A different UK to now, only 50 or so years ago. Sadly succumbed to alcoholism
A poll (of sorts!) NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey
Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.
Labour 46 % (up 7%) Conservative 25 % (down 3%) Reform UK 18 % (down 2%) Lib Dem 6% (no change) SNP 2% (no change) Green 2% (down 1%) Another party 1% (no change) Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)
JL Partners (along with Opinium) are the most favourable methodology toward the Tories
A poll (of sorts!) NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey
Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.
Labour 46 % (up 7%) Conservative 25 % (down 3%) Reform UK 18 % (down 2%) Lib Dem 6% (no change) SNP 2% (no change) Green 2% (down 1%) Another party 1% (no change) Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)
I didn't know John Lewis did opinion polls!
Never Knowingly Under-polled!
Jon Lewis, Gloucestershire, Surrey, Sussex and England, now coach of England women, was also called 'never knowingly underbowled' for his stamina.
A poll (of sorts!) NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey
Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.
Labour 46 % (up 7%) Conservative 25 % (down 3%) Reform UK 18 % (down 2%) Lib Dem 6% (no change) SNP 2% (no change) Green 2% (down 1%) Another party 1% (no change) Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)
JL Partners (along with Opinium) are the most favourable methodology toward the Tories
Still off-topic my photo of the day is 30 years of discrimination in plain sight. This is slightly nerd.
I did a gentle audit on the Stockley Trail near the M1 J29 on Sunday; it is a 2 mile stretch of the former Midland Railway with goodies such as a couple of nature reserves and mountain bike tracks, rail gradient pathways and so on.
It has been advertised as a "multiuser path for walkers, cyclists, horse riders and wheelchair users" for about 3 decades. The piccie below is the car park, showing disabled spaces, and barriers preventing access to the trail by mobility aid. These are also vintage mid-1990s. The only alternative for mobility aid users is to wheel yourself through a bush, a hole in the fence, and over rough, unfinished tarmac.
At the other end of the trail the lane has 6 full width road humps - uncomfortable or unusable in a mobility aid without a motor vehicle. The implicit model is "bring your wheelchair using relative, or your dog, or your children, in the car, and take them for a walk".
The really ironic thing is that all the rest is good - farmgates and 1.5m gaps wide side by side all the way - if you can get into the end of it. I never understand why these aren't thought through, and never joined up in the head of the designers, or on the ground. Plus there's miles more of ex-railway joined to the end of this. We have a network of ex-railways covering most of the country that could be superb.
Fortunately, unusually here the whole thing is dedicated as a Bridleway (Glapwell BW1, Ault Hucknall BW23, Scarsdale BW38) - which hardly ever happens for these trails.
I need to see how Derbyshire County Council react to being told that their road humps (and the barriers in the photo) are an unlawful obstruction on a public highway under S137 of the Highways Act 1980, and must have a 1.5m flat route created through them. Easy to say, difficult to make happen if they drag their feet.
That's an astonishingly apt W3W - one has to overcome the obstacles, possibly becoming frantic, but slowness is guaranteed
Agree, as usual, on the substantive points.
There often is if you look.
My favourite is still probably the famous Kerplunk Barriers near RHS Bridgwater (I did not post a pic over the w/e so I am assuming 50% of quota persists), which are 4-fold chicanes on a gritty slippy path to "slow cyclists down", where it's impossible to slow down because it's a steep hill and wheels instantly lock.
It's supposed ot be a major route to RHS Bridgewater for walking and wheeling, but no one in a mobility aid will go down that unless completely deranged.
The real problem is that it's a one in ten hill (national standard max allowed 1:20) because they f*cked up the profile of the path. They were able to dig down for the houses either side, but no one bothered. It's fixable but difficult to make happen.
Apart from anything else, that is one of the ugliest pieces of street 'furniture' that I have ever seen. Which morons design this absurd clutter? I have just returned from France, where they have much more cycling and manage to keep their towns very well presented and largely free of idiot barriers and assorted rummage.
It's a quick, cheap fix to a "problem" that looks like an answer to the voters.
The basic issues are around LHAs not being experienced at designing infra. Here they have used the same sort of serpentine fencing and gritty surface that they used on the towpaths of the Bridgwater Canal, and not realised that it is dangerous on a steep hill.
You can see that there is even a straight line down the middle, so the curves don't even restrict the line taken.
Plus poor sightlines at the bottom, and cyclists who can't stop even if they want to. There were a couple of collisions and this is the sticky plaster. it's far simpler to blame people ("cyclists whizzing everywhere") than fix the poor design.
To fix it will need a serpentine tarmac path, to reduce the effective gradient to 1 in 20 for mobility scooters etc, and a railing along the side of the road to stop anyone rolling through. Here's a less extreme example on the Five Pits trail which is on a Pegasus Crossing and designed for horses:
Well it’s the most boring election in decades. Starmer is genetically boring. Sunak can’t afford to be interesting. There are no scenarios where Davey is relevant enough to be interesting. It’s 6 weeks of watching a slow motion car wreck followed by 18 hours of analysing the car wreck in real time.
I do admit I find it a really boring election so far.
I shouldn’t find it boring! We’re looking at the first change of government for 14 years and a potential Tory catastrophe which could change the structure of British politics that has been in place since the end of WWII, and in my case my first-time-ever vote for Labour in a GE.
But I do find it boring. Maybe it’s the inevitability (though that didn’t make 1997 unexciting). Maybe it’s the fact that Starmer has managed to make playing things safely and sensibly such an art form that I don’t anticipate any big slipups injecting any jeopardy (even false jeopardy). Maybe we’re just tired after so many years of Tory psychodrama. But it is odd. I have felt an energy and excitement for every GE I can remember - save 2001 for obvious reasons. Here I feel I’m going through the motions a bit. Maybe I’ll feel differently after the debates and manifestos. I hope so.
Has anyone got any more good betting tips for either constituencies or overall?
It seems like there’s so little value out there.
Thinking about trading bets on the Lib Dem’s for ‘Most seats without Labour’. Could Farage’s announcement make that more enticing?
I’ve also laid Reform 0 seats as I imagine the 4pm announcement will lead to a surge of betting on them - may be able to secure a quick profit by tonight.
Sit on yer hands and await good entry points, you don't have to bet and you certainly don't have to bet *now*. I want to sell lib dem seats on the spreads desparately but I need a bid much closer to 50 to do it.
I currently have a simple book of three positions:
8/1 on Corbyn getting greater vote numbers than Starmer, thanks to Quincel's amazing tip the other day Long Labour seats at 402 Laid Corbyn in Islington North at 1.49
You can't get the first two although the second one has a reasonable chance of becoming available again, just need a wobble. The third is still nearly available at 1.64 and everything in my gut is telling me that he should be longer than evens. I don't have any real research or local knowledge to back this up though *other* than the demographics don't look good for a large gaza protest vote or alternatively a personality based "been our MP for ages" one. I think the shortness comes from political people being too political and in a bubble where they think normies talk about Corbyn. But I stress my lack of knowledge of the seat so YMMV.
Farage may have timed it perfectly. The Tories have already failed to squeeze the Reform vote and now they can expect to become *the* story for a while which could lead to a polling bounce.
“Newcastle” - a prosperous university city, market town and communication and retail centre, enjoys some superb Georgian and early Victorian architecture (29 Grade I listed, 49 Grade II*)
It often gets confused with the wider Tyneside region - so some think “Jarrow March” when they hear of it.
Oh well, more space for those who know to enjoy it.
Separately I was slightly surprised to see Brighton having the second highest population density after London - the Georgians knew how to build high density and still create pleasant cities.
Quite right too. Amazing how anyone could think otherwise.
The North-east is where a lot of the energy and the money for London came from to begin with.
There’s a very good walk along the banks of the Tyne which highlights the region’s history. At the start of the 20th Century as well as being a major exporting port (half the coal exported in the world went down the Tyne it was also a major centre of innovation, - the “Silicon Glen” of its age - from steam turbines to electric bulbs and major armaments. Retail parks and call centres now - but we need more “Victorian” cities like Newcastle, Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow to thrive as they once did.
Oh, I've been intending to have a good look again and explore more - along the Tyne and to see Stephenson's family home, but also Jarrow and South Shields and Tynemouth. And Armstrong's house further inland.
But there is some very fine Georgian/Victorian architecture there in the inner city. The curve of Grainger Street.
And our engineers might like the Turbinia in the museum near the railway station.
Quite an interesting podcast with Nick Robinson and a couple of Party advisors on what they believe their respective strategies to be.....and other things like Diane Abbott and Starmers background ....real and romanticised
Zara considers their Metro Centre store their Newcastle store for a reason
But - it just isn't. And it's particularly unhelpful if, say, you're in Newcastle City Centre and looking for Zara. I find the concept of not understanding geography except through the nearest big city slightly painful. Its as if we don't think people can hold more than 10 places in their head at once. Can we not expect a bit more of people? I was reading something recently - in the Guardian I think - which mentioned Buxton and described it as 'near Manchester'. Which from the perspective of London is true, I suppose, but 'Derbyshire' seems to paint it much better. See also: cricket teams named 'Birmingham' rather than 'Warwickshire'; or service stations named 'Birmingham North' rather than 'Hilton Park' (happily the trend for the latter has gone firmly into reverse).
It is in Greater Newcastle, nobody is claiming it is in central Newcastle.
Given how badly the last ten days have gone with the Conservatives actively campaigning, gving up and saying nothing might turn out better.
Apparently Richi was in Henley this morning (a seat the Conservatives have held for 114 years) talking to a Women's rowing team about the Tories big new shiny gender recognition policy, but he failed to actually mention that to any of them...
“Newcastle” - a prosperous university city, market town and communication and retail centre, enjoys some superb Georgian and early Victorian architecture (29 Grade I listed, 49 Grade II*)
It often gets confused with the wider Tyneside region - so some think “Jarrow March” when they hear of it.
Oh well, more space for those who know to enjoy it.
Separately I was slightly surprised to see Brighton having the second highest population density after London - the Georgians knew how to build high density and still create pleasant cities.
Quite right too. Amazing how anyone could think otherwise.
The North-east is where a lot of the energy and the money for London came from to begin with.
There’s a very good walk along the banks of the Tyne which highlights the region’s history. At the start of the 20th Century as well as being a major exporting port (half the coal exported in the world went down the Tyne it was also a major centre of innovation, - the “Silicon Glen” of its age - from steam turbines to electric bulbs and major armaments. Retail parks and call centres now - but we need more “Victorian” cities like Newcastle, Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow to thrive as they once did.
Oh, I've been intending to have a good look again - along the Tyne and to see Stephenson's family home, but also Jarrow and South Shields and Tynemouth. And Armstrong's house further inland.
It's great along there. Cycle path the whole way if you fancy it.
“Newcastle” - a prosperous university city, market town and communication and retail centre, enjoys some superb Georgian and early Victorian architecture (29 Grade I listed, 49 Grade II*)
It often gets confused with the wider Tyneside region - so some think “Jarrow March” when they hear of it.
Oh well, more space for those who know to enjoy it.
Separately I was slightly surprised to see Brighton having the second highest population density after London - the Georgians knew how to build high density and still create pleasant cities.
Quite right too. Amazing how anyone could think otherwise.
The North-east is where a lot of the energy and the money for London came from to begin with.
There’s a very good walk along the banks of the Tyne which highlights the region’s history. At the start of the 20th Century as well as being a major exporting port (half the coal exported in the world went down the Tyne it was also a major centre of innovation, - the “Silicon Glen” of its age - from steam turbines to electric bulbs and major armaments. Retail parks and call centres now - but we need more “Victorian” cities like Newcastle, Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow to thrive as they once did.
Oh, I've been intending to have a good look again - along the Tyne and to see Stephenson's family home, but also Jarrow and South Shields and Tynemouth. And Armstrong's house further inland.
It's great along there. Cycle path the whole way if you fancy it.
“Newcastle” - a prosperous university city, market town and communication and retail centre, enjoys some superb Georgian and early Victorian architecture (29 Grade I listed, 49 Grade II*)
It often gets confused with the wider Tyneside region - so some think “Jarrow March” when they hear of it.
Oh well, more space for those who know to enjoy it.
Separately I was slightly surprised to see Brighton having the second highest population density after London - the Georgians knew how to build high density and still create pleasant cities.
Quite right too. Amazing how anyone could think otherwise.
The North-east is where a lot of the energy and the money for London came from to begin with.
There’s a very good walk along the banks of the Tyne which highlights the region’s history. At the start of the 20th Century as well as being a major exporting port (half the coal exported in the world went down the Tyne it was also a major centre of innovation, - the “Silicon Glen” of its age - from steam turbines to electric bulbs and major armaments. Retail parks and call centres now - but we need more “Victorian” cities like Newcastle, Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow to thrive as they once did.
Oh, I've been intending to have a good look again - along the Tyne and to see Stephenson's family home, but also Jarrow and South Shields and Tynemouth. And Armstrong's house further inland.
It's great along there. Cycle path the whole way if you fancy it.
Given how badly the last ten days have gone with the Conservatives actively campaigning, gving up and saying nothing might turn out better.
Apparently Richi was in Henley this morning (a seat the Conservatives have held for 114 years) talking to a Women's rowing team about the Tories big new shiny gender recognition policy, but he failed to actually mention that to any of them...
If they were busy training, they wouldn't have wanted him sticking his oar in.
“Newcastle” - a prosperous university city, market town and communication and retail centre, enjoys some superb Georgian and early Victorian architecture (29 Grade I listed, 49 Grade II*)
It often gets confused with the wider Tyneside region - so some think “Jarrow March” when they hear of it.
Oh well, more space for those who know to enjoy it.
Separately I was slightly surprised to see Brighton having the second highest population density after London - the Georgians knew how to build high density and still create pleasant cities.
Quite right too. Amazing how anyone could think otherwise.
The North-east is where a lot of the energy and the money for London came from to begin with.
There’s a very good walk along the banks of the Tyne which highlights the region’s history. At the start of the 20th Century as well as being a major exporting port (half the coal exported in the world went down the Tyne it was also a major centre of innovation, - the “Silicon Glen” of its age - from steam turbines to electric bulbs and major armaments. Retail parks and call centres now - but we need more “Victorian” cities like Newcastle, Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow to thrive as they once did.
Oh, I've been intending to have a good look again - along the Tyne and to see Stephenson's family home, but also Jarrow and South Shields and Tynemouth. And Armstrong's house further inland.
It's great along there. Cycle path the whole way if you fancy it.
A cycle path from Tynemouth to South Shields?
I have done it a few times. The shields ferry is a part of the journey and fun to catch.
“Newcastle” - a prosperous university city, market town and communication and retail centre, enjoys some superb Georgian and early Victorian architecture (29 Grade I listed, 49 Grade II*)
It often gets confused with the wider Tyneside region - so some think “Jarrow March” when they hear of it.
Oh well, more space for those who know to enjoy it.
Separately I was slightly surprised to see Brighton having the second highest population density after London - the Georgians knew how to build high density and still create pleasant cities.
Quite right too. Amazing how anyone could think otherwise.
The North-east is where a lot of the energy and the money for London came from to begin with.
There’s a very good walk along the banks of the Tyne which highlights the region’s history. At the start of the 20th Century as well as being a major exporting port (half the coal exported in the world went down the Tyne it was also a major centre of innovation, - the “Silicon Glen” of its age - from steam turbines to electric bulbs and major armaments. Retail parks and call centres now - but we need more “Victorian” cities like Newcastle, Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow to thrive as they once did.
Oh, I've been intending to have a good look again and explore more - along the Tyne and to see Stephenson's family home, but also Jarrow and South Shields and Tynemouth. And Armstrong's house further inland.
But there is some very fine Georgian/Victorian architecture there in the inner city. The curve of Grainger Street.
And our engineers might like the Turbinia in the museum near the railway station.
They not long ago re-opened the pedestrian tunnel which runs near to the Tyne Tunnel. You can cycle through it too. Think you get on Northern side by Howden.
One presumes Rishi has control of his own social media accounts, although others may have access too. I would imagine nothing gets posted without his nod. I think there’s also a danger of overanalysing everything. Most people aren’t going to be aware of the PMs social media activity.
Badenoch is also Minister for Women and Equalities. Thanks once again for highlighting Labour’s complacency and indifference towards the rights of half the electorate. Quote
ALASTAIR CAMPBELL @campbellclaret 2h I’m sure the world of trade and business will take note that the actual Secretary of State for trade and business has decided that the biggest issue on her agenda on her first big election outing is the weaponisation of trans rights. Anyone might be tempted to think @KemiBadenoch has less interest in the general election than the internal ideological shitshow likely to follow it.
If you want to understand just how manufactured the transgender culture war is, less than 2 years ago Kemi Badenoch was celebrating the fact that it was becoming easier to apply for a Gender Recognition Certificate
Technically easier, because it could be done online - no reduction in the legal requirements, which is what ScotGov proposed, ignoring all the issues that could create.
Not quite the gotcha, is it?
Just to be clear: if you’re on the left & you’re dismissing an Equality Act amendment to protect women’s rights you don’t understand as hateful on the basis of who’s proposing it you’re as guilty as anyone of culture wars rhetoric in a sensitive debate about a conflict of rights.
Another dreadful Tory no doubt. #checks notes# leader writer for the Observer
Making it practically easier to get a GRC seems to go against the whole "we know what a woman is and she can't have a penis", when the point of a GRC is that some people with a penis can get legal recognition as being a woman.
And I'm not dismissing the changes to the EA based on whose proposing them - I'm dismissing them because it's a bad idea. Because there is no "biological" definition of sex that will protect all cis men and women and only exclude trans people because there are lots of variations of sex characteristics within individuals. I know that those who are anti trans now like to fall back to "a woman is someone who produces large gametes" but if, in law, that were to be the definition of woman that would mean any time a woman wants to enforce her rights under those laws she would need to prove she does produce large gametes, with the testing that is required to back that up. Whereas under the social understanding of sex and gender it is much easier for any woman, trans or cis, to assert their rights when discriminated against.
Law is not a perfect thing. There is no legal definition that meets every single case that it is meant to encompass. However, there are plenty of definitions of biological sex that will protect the fast majority of women. Case law can iron out any small exceptions.
I look forward to you defending the rights of this biological female to use women's toilets in the company of other biological females:
So women who are into bondage or BDSM are not women? I don't understand the argument here.
Sorry it wasn't clear. The person in question is a trans man, and is the subject of some dispute in Australia, where people who refer to him as a woman are told to take the tweet down (see Google for the full story). If the UK uses biological sex as a determinant then that person will be forced to use the woman's toilet.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform 14% (+1) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-27/5
There’s got to be a non-zero chance of someone on team Tory having an emotional meltdown at this rate. The Tories deserve a hammering I’m not sure they entirely deserve this though.
@KateEMcCann Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.
How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
It’s because she is willing to spout the claptrap that a significant portion of idiot Tories are signed up to. What stuns me is the way certain Tory politicians take the GB news shilling and certain Tory supporters fall over themselves to big up that outlet when their agenda is antithetical to the survival of an electable Tory party.
I think she's bang-on with identity politics.
Whether she's ready to be leader is another matter.
I’d say that aspects of the analysis are correct, the solutions that are proposed are more problematic. I have no issues with ensuring that biological women have proper protection in single sex spaces but too often rather than treat the problem as bad actors in the trans space the likes of Kemi and her ilk give the impression that Trans people are nothing but bad actors. That’s wrong and won’t help anyone get to the right place on this issue.
I have remarkably little interest in the Trans issue, which I imagine is the same of most people.
It's the broader point of judging people and weighting their experiences/views by what identity group they're in that I think is a problem. Even talking about it too much can reinforce it.
I was watching a youtube Warhammer video the other day which, if you can believe it, started talking about identity politics in an interesting way, in the context of geek fandom.
Essentially, I think we're Donald Ducked. Social media, even back to the Usenet days, is a huge engine for creating identity-based groups. The pandemic gave a good kicking to in-person socialisation that would act to balance it.
Identity-based social grouping creates a sense of being an embattled and victimised minority, it damages broader social empathy, and creates an atomised society of mutually antagonistic identity groups.
Albeit, social majorities acting in the name of unity and homogeneity have done the same, and worse. The twentieth century was riddled with atrocities done by those with that mindset. Treating people well seems like a better guideline than trying to live without any social identity, and a lot more strategically sustainable in case the bad guys really are trying to destroy your group.
Yeah. Clearly I can't get a perfect account of my nuanced position across in this format, and a balance between the two extremes is warranted. There have definitely been some genuinely marginalised minority groups that have benefited a lot from the internet's ability to allow people with niche interests and minority identities to find each other.
But if everyone's identity reduces down only to which minority identity groups they are a member of (me = cyclist, aspie, knitter, mathmo, wargamer, geek, ecosocialist, hiker), and no shared identity on a larger scale (me = English, British, Democrat, European, Human) then I think we have a serious problem.
In particular, if a lot of those minority identity groups have no history of meaningful victimisation, but create a feeling of victimisation through the online expression of that identity group, which is particularly the case with geek fandom, and, say, drivers.
These minority interest groups get more interesting when attempts are made to build bridges between them. For example, I am very active in active travel and hiking/climbing groups. Both groups have large crossovers to LGBT, pro-Palestine, drug using communities, and it's often assumed that I would be interested in those too.
I'm sympathetic to their needs and objectives, but begrudge that assumption and get very irritated when I see Palestine flags all over the place when I'm trying to solve a problem like dooring, or trying to work out if a particular carabiner is incompatible with a belay device.
@KateEMcCann Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.
How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
It’s because she is willing to spout the claptrap that a significant portion of idiot Tories are signed up to. What stuns me is the way certain Tory politicians take the GB news shilling and certain Tory supporters fall over themselves to big up that outlet when their agenda is antithetical to the survival of an electable Tory party.
I think she's bang-on with identity politics.
Whether she's ready to be leader is another matter.
I’d say that aspects of the analysis are correct, the solutions that are proposed are more problematic. I have no issues with ensuring that biological women have proper protection in single sex spaces but too often rather than treat the problem as bad actors in the trans space the likes of Kemi and her ilk give the impression that Trans people are nothing but bad actors. That’s wrong and won’t help anyone get to the right place on this issue.
I have remarkably little interest in the Trans issue, which I imagine is the same of most people.
It's the broader point of judging people and weighting their experiences/views by what identity group they're in that I think is a problem. Even talking about it too much can reinforce it.
I was watching a youtube Warhammer video the other day which, if you can believe it, started talking about identity politics in an interesting way, in the context of geek fandom.
Essentially, I think we're Donald Ducked. Social media, even back to the Usenet days, is a huge engine for creating identity-based groups. The pandemic gave a good kicking to in-person socialisation that would act to balance it.
Identity-based social grouping creates a sense of being an embattled and victimised minority, it damages broader social empathy, and creates an atomised society of mutually antagonistic identity groups.
Albeit, social majorities acting in the name of unity and homogeneity have done the same, and worse. The twentieth century was riddled with atrocities done by those with that mindset. Treating people well seems like a better guideline than trying to live without any social identity, and a lot more strategically sustainable in case the bad guys really are trying to destroy your group.
Yeah. Clearly I can't get a perfect account of my nuanced position across in this format, and a balance between the two extremes is warranted. There have definitely been some genuinely marginalised minority groups that have benefited a lot from the internet's ability to allow people with niche interests and minority identities to find each other.
But if everyone's identity reduces down only to which minority identity groups they are a member of (me = cyclist, aspie, knitter, mathmo, wargamer, geek, ecosocialist, hiker), and no shared identity on a larger scale (me = English, British, Democrat, European, Human) then I think we have a serious problem.
In particular, if a lot of those minority identity groups have no history of meaningful victimisation, but create a feeling of victimisation through the online expression of that identity group, which is particularly the case with geek fandom, and, say, drivers.
These minority interest groups get more interesting when attempts are made to build bridges between them. For example, I am very active in active travel and hiking/climbing groups. Both groups have large crossovers to LGBT, pro-Palestine, drug using communities, and it's often assumed that I would be interested in those too.
I'm sympathetic to their needs and objectives, but begrudge that assumption and get very irritated when I see Palestine flags all over the place when I'm trying to solve a problem like dooring, or trying to work out if a particular carabiner is incompatible with a belay device.
I like climbing. But I find it weirdly fixated on identity politics. Both indoor climbing centres I frequent have LGBTQ+ nights. One of them runs a 'free climbing for ethnic minorities' scheme (no idea how this is policed, but I can imagine it could lead to some quite awkward conversations.) One of them has the trans flag everywhere. I don't see why there should be a link. Maybe outdoor climbing is different - I don't know.
My Dad tells me however that back in the 1960s there was quite a big crossover between hiking, climbing, folk music and left wing politics. So it's not a new thing.
The Kinder trespasses - the events that in large measure led to the access rights we enjoy today - were very left wing at the top.
Yes, true. And left-wing in an old-fashioned sort of way. Issues of land ownership, etc. (On which subject - it still rankles with me somewhat that there are places in the West Riding where one must pay to Go For A Walk - Bolton Abbey and Ingleton, for example. These seem like a bit of a throwback to a pre-1932 age.)
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
It's not so much Sunak but the inept Tory Boy spod-nerds who are 'running' their social media operation. I have encountered farm shops with a better twitter game.
It's looking as if the Conservatives have reached the same point as the Liberals in 1924. They just don't speak for anyone, anymore. I wonder what comes next.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 20% (-3) Reform UK 14% (+1) Liberal Democrat 10% (+1) Green 5% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (-1)
Redfield
Yeah at this stage my prediction they wouldn’t sink below 150 seats is looking rocky…
Campaign looks to be focussing minds, but against them.
True enough, but are they really 13% behind with the over 65s? Noone else other than Techne has them losing the grey vote. Redfields age curve is ridiculously flat. That's not to say wrong but I just don't buy it, and it's been consistent with them for weeks.
Comments
There’s a tension between consultant availability for treating patients & consultant availability for teaching the next generation of consultants. The “optimal” thing to do is probably to boost teaching capacity a lot & accept that patient delivery is just going to have to come second for some years to come until we’ve redressed the balance between future needs & current ones, but what government wants to do that? Much easier to ram your head into the sand (as the current government has gleefully done for the past decade) and ignore the problem until it becomes acute. We got on the wrong side of this balance (for short term financial reasons, natch) some years ago & are now screwed whatever we do.
Now that future has arrived & we have some tough choices to make, as Blair liked to say. (In my opinion Blair always took the easy choice instead of the electorally difficult one whilst making a lot of noise about difficult choices. The exception to this rule, weirdly, was the Iraq War.)
The North-east is where a lot of the energy and the money for London came from to begin with.
What I'm looking at with this one is the new National Trust commitment towards active travel (they are very car-brained especially for rural properties) at their AGM last November, and seeing if I can find a way to get things rolling at Hardwick Hall. Not sure if I have mentioned it here - it's possible, as I've ben chattering about it.
It started with the normal crapulous cycle - cycle parking is crap at HH, so no one visits by cycle and uses it, but no one visits by cycle and uses it because it is crap. Exactly the same as "no cycling facilities needed on dangerous rural roads, as no one cycles on them .... guess why?".
And then on to "but if we need to improve it, how will they get there" - so I need a network of safe, useable walking and wheeling routes from all the communities within about 10-15 miles to reach the half million people who live nearby.
The Stockley Trail may be part of such a route.
NT do things in some places like 10% off if you display a cycle helmet or a bus ticket. To me they look serious but are going to need help everywhere to make it happen.
https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/who-we-are/annual-general-meeting/board-of-trustees-reflections-on-agm-resolutions#rt-walking-and-cycling-access-to-properties
NEW @GBNEWS viewers break for Labour in new JL Partners survey
Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives from 11 points to 21 points among @GBNEWS viewers, with Labour on 46%, the Tories on 25%, and Reform UK on 18% of the vote.
Labour 46 % (up 7%)
Conservative 25 % (down 3%)
Reform UK 18 % (down 2%)
Lib Dem 6% (no change)
SNP 2% (no change)
Green 2% (down 1%)
Another party 1% (no change)
Plaid Cymru 0 % (down 1%)
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1797618354557001974?s=46
Not content with trying to predict the election, pollsters are now busying themselves predicting each others’ predictions.
https://x.com/DamianSurvation/status/1797552670418378908
I find the concept of not understanding geography except through the nearest big city slightly painful. Its as if we don't think people can hold more than 10 places in their head at once. Can we not expect a bit more of people?
I was reading something recently - in the Guardian I think - which mentioned Buxton and described it as 'near Manchester'. Which from the perspective of London is true, I suppose, but 'Derbyshire' seems to paint it much better.
See also: cricket teams named 'Birmingham' rather than 'Warwickshire'; or service stations named 'Birmingham North' rather than 'Hilton Park' (happily the trend for the latter has gone firmly into reverse).
If (ha!) GBN is intended as a propoganda outlet to brainwash its viewers, it's a pretty ineffective one.
Edit: Bugger. Seconds in it. I shouldn't have waited and checked to see if anyone had already said it
ETA: Third, like - um - me
Record for any party in the age of universal suffrage is 1931 when the Conservatives won 470, but that was somewhat skewed by the number of constituencies where they faced only one opponent due to various electoral pacts.
Nairn made some interesting early travelogues around the UK. A different UK to now, only 50 or so years ago. Sadly succumbed to alcoholism
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/12178/polling-errors-politicalbetting-com#latest
So this poll is an absolute travesty for them.
And L435-C120 may be about to get a whole lot worse...
See what I did there?
Times Radio"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lg8amFQ99IA
The basic issues are around LHAs not being experienced at designing infra. Here they have used the same sort of serpentine fencing and gritty surface that they used on the towpaths of the Bridgwater Canal, and not realised that it is dangerous on a steep hill.
You can see that there is even a straight line down the middle, so the curves don't even restrict the line taken.
Plus poor sightlines at the bottom, and cyclists who can't stop even if they want to. There were a couple of collisions and this is the sticky plaster. it's far simpler to blame people ("cyclists whizzing everywhere") than fix the poor design.
To fix it will need a serpentine tarmac path, to reduce the effective gradient to 1 in 20 for mobility scooters etc, and a railing along the side of the road to stop anyone rolling through. Here's a less extreme example on the Five Pits trail which is on a Pegasus Crossing and designed for horses:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Tibshelf,+Alfreton/@53.1424357,-1.3445902,108a,44.7y,2.15t/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x4879916ac5cfe3c9:0x589d720d0312804f!8m2!3d53.140349!4d-1.346878!16zL20vMDloYzhy?entry=ttu
If you were to put all our living ex-PMs into Starmer's first Cabinet, what jobs would you give them?
I shouldn’t find it boring! We’re looking at the first change of government for 14 years and a potential Tory catastrophe which could change the structure of British politics that has been in place since the end of WWII, and in my case my first-time-ever vote for Labour in a GE.
But I do find it boring. Maybe it’s the inevitability (though that didn’t make 1997 unexciting). Maybe it’s the fact that Starmer has managed to make playing things safely and sensibly such an art form that I don’t anticipate any big slipups injecting any jeopardy (even false jeopardy). Maybe we’re just tired after so many years of Tory psychodrama. But it is odd. I have felt an energy and excitement for every GE I can remember - save 2001 for obvious reasons. Here I feel I’m going through the motions a bit. Maybe I’ll feel differently after the debates and manifestos. I hope so.
I currently have a simple book of three positions:
8/1 on Corbyn getting greater vote numbers than Starmer, thanks to Quincel's amazing tip the other day
Long Labour seats at 402
Laid Corbyn in Islington North at 1.49
You can't get the first two although the second one has a reasonable chance of becoming available again, just need a wobble. The third is still nearly available at 1.64 and everything in my gut is telling me that he should be longer than evens. I don't have any real research or local knowledge to back this up though *other* than the demographics don't look good for a large gaza protest vote or alternatively a personality based "been our MP for ages" one. I think the shortness comes from political people being too political and in a bubble where they think normies talk about Corbyn. But I stress my lack of knowledge of the seat so YMMV.
But there is some very fine Georgian/Victorian architecture there in the inner city. The curve of Grainger Street.
And our engineers might like the Turbinia in the museum near the railway station.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001znmv
Geddit.
Edit: I mean jeez if I've got to explain my jokes on here things really are coming to a pretty pass.
Your welcome.
"You're once, twice, eight times a loser..."
Is it under-polled, or underpolled?
Sadly he and his wife were due to move to Spain on Thursday for their retirement.
He will be remembered for eighties summer songs.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/agadoo-singer-dies-suddenly/ar-BB1nxmSV?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=8fd68e807db84a5094a44c2ebaecd186&ei=32
CCHQ have gone bananas
https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1797607539452096558?t=0z9mOdFHgody1fohpZlB1Q&s=19
Gibb was a founding member of the novelty pop band best known for 1980s hits Agadoo, Superman and Do The Conga."
https://news.sky.com/story/colin-gibb-black-lace-star-who-sang-agadoo-dies-13147222
🇬🇧 MEGA POLL!
10K sample.
Labour leads by 26%.
Tied-lowest Conservative % with Sunak as PM.
Westminster VI (31/5 - 2/6):
Labour 46% (–)
Conservative 20% (-3)
Reform 14% (+1)
Lib Dem 10% (+1)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 2% (-1)
Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 25-27/5
Labour 46% (–)
Conservative 20% (-3)
Reform UK 14% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 10% (+1)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
Other 2% (-1)
Redfield
Campaign looks to be focussing minds, but against them.
@RedfieldWilton
Largest EVER lead for Starmer over Sunak.
Joint-lowest % EVER to pick Sunak.
At this moment, which of the following do Britons think would be the better PM for the UK? (31 May - 2 June)
Keir Starmer 46% (+1)
Rishi Sunak 26% (–)
Changes +/- 25-27 May
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-68564929
I'm expecting an update of the CRoW Act 2000 at some point in the text 2 Govt terms.
"Poll incoming 5pm today. To be honest it's more of the same, MoE changes."
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1797630031616938109?s=46
That's not to say wrong but I just don't buy it, and it's been consistent with them for weeks.
If their MRP at 5pm is what we expect it to be, they are going to be all over it.
NEW: Penny Mordaunt to represent the Conservative Party in Friday night's 7-way TV debate on the BBC