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A tale of two seats: Maidstone and Macclesfield – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 16 in General
imageA tale of two seats: Maidstone and Macclesfield – politicalbetting.com

Like many on here, I have spent some time sifting the constituency markets looking for value bets. Boundary changes mean that Ordnance Survey’s excellent Election Maps site is required in addition to Wikipedia. I’ve generally stayed away from the Conservative-Labour battlegrounds and focussed on seats where it’s not clear who will be the main challenger to the Conservatives or the SNP. However, I have found two seats that provide interesting case studies for how our politics have realigned in the last decade.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,317
    Thought-provoking header from TLG86. What is the east-west divide?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,317
    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665
    Hoe can any threader involving Macclesfield not mention The Macc Lads???

    Macclesfield's greatest export.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    The puzzling question with Maidstone and Malling is given the boundary changes why Helen Grant went for this seat rather than Weald of Kent.

    Macclesfield is really interesting because the Conservative vote share has barely moved since 1997. In 1997 the got 49.6% by 2019 they had pushed it up to 52.5% which is sub par given the national switch in support. Maidstone and Weald the predecessor seat in part to Maidstone and Malling saw a much healthier growth in Tory share from 44.1 to 60.4.

    That suggests to me that Macclesfield is a more difficult proposition for the Tories than Maidstone. May well lose both of course but the Kent seat would not keep me up as many nights as a Tory strategist.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    Hoe can any threader involving Macclesfield not mention The Macc Lads???

    Macclesfield's greatest export.

    No sheep jokes before lunchtime.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    ToryJim said:

    The puzzling question with Maidstone and Malling is given the boundary changes why Helen Grant went for this seat rather than Weald of Kent.

    Macclesfield is really interesting because the Conservative vote share has barely moved since 1997. In 1997 the got 49.6% by 2019 they had pushed it up to 52.5% which is sub par given the national switch in support. Maidstone and Weald the predecessor seat in part to Maidstone and Malling saw a much healthier growth in Tory share from 44.1 to 60.4.

    That suggests to me that Macclesfield is a more difficult proposition for the Tories than Maidstone. May well lose both of course but the Kent seat would not keep me up as many nights as a Tory strategist.

    Or, alternatively, the vote is stickier so less prone to large swings.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    edited June 3

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    It’s most likely to be originating with young political activists hiding behind parody labels - but with a fair share of amplification from foreign state actors, who can cheaply buy tens of thousands of views and likes which push the content up the algorithm.

    The UK election is merely the dry run for the US election in November, which is going to be a total sh!t-show of fake news across both mainstream and social media channels.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,337
    Excellent thread header @tlg86 thank you.

    But, wow, doesn’t it just show how hard it is to find value in this election? Those odds are disappointing.


  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,653
    Stonch said:

    First perhaps? It’s only taken me 20 years.

    You were first on 20th November 2014.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,317
    Sandpit said:

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    It’s most likely to be originating with young political activists hiding behind parody labels - but with a fair share of amplification from foreign state actors, who can cheaply buy tens of thousands of views and likes which push the content up the algorithm.
    Both seem likely. I'm not on TikTok but I've noticed my TwiX account gets about one new follower a day, which is odd because my post count remains zero. My uninformed guess is these are likely bot accounts adding connections to boost their own plausibility.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,337

    Stonch said:

    First perhaps? It’s only taken me 20 years.

    You were first on 20th November 2014.
    You spent time looking back at every post they made to find that? Goodness :o

  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,670
    Sandpit said:

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    It’s most likely to be originating with young political activists hiding behind parody labels - but with a fair share of amplification from foreign state actors, who can cheaply buy tens of thousands of views and likes which push the content up the algorithm.

    The UK election is merely the dry run for the US election in November, which is going to be a total sh!t-show of fake news across both mainstream and social media channels.
    In the UK, the parties’ official communications stick closer to the truth. In the US, the GOP’s entire platform consists of lies: Trump won in 2020, Trump is the persecuted Christ.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,317
    Heathener said:

    Excellent thread header @tlg86 thank you.

    But, wow, doesn’t it just show how hard it is to find value in this election? Those odds are disappointing.


    If 1/7 is the true price then 10/11 is remarkable value. They imply an 88 per cent chance as opposed to a 52 per cent chance. Of course, that is a big if. But if TLG86's contention that these are similar constituencies is even halfway correct then the markedly different prices imply value somewhere.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,317
    edited June 3

    Sandpit said:

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    It’s most likely to be originating with young political activists hiding behind parody labels - but with a fair share of amplification from foreign state actors, who can cheaply buy tens of thousands of views and likes which push the content up the algorithm.

    The UK election is merely the dry run for the US election in November, which is going to be a total sh!t-show of fake news across both mainstream and social media channels.
    In the UK, the parties’ official communications stick closer to the truth. In the US, the GOP’s entire platform consists of lies: Trump won in 2020, Trump is the persecuted Christ.
    Yes, except hold on, didn't the Conservatives rebrand their Twix account as an impartial fact checker during the debates? Didn't the actual, card-carrying Prime Minister use the Savile slur in the House of Commons? Didn't Jim Hacker tell the Defence Secretary that government press statements are not issued under oath? ETA isn't the Labour Party right now publishing satirical Rishi's election diary videos?
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    ydoethur said:

    ToryJim said:

    The puzzling question with Maidstone and Malling is given the boundary changes why Helen Grant went for this seat rather than Weald of Kent.

    Macclesfield is really interesting because the Conservative vote share has barely moved since 1997. In 1997 the got 49.6% by 2019 they had pushed it up to 52.5% which is sub par given the national switch in support. Maidstone and Weald the predecessor seat in part to Maidstone and Malling saw a much healthier growth in Tory share from 44.1 to 60.4.

    That suggests to me that Macclesfield is a more difficult proposition for the Tories than Maidstone. May well lose both of course but the Kent seat would not keep me up as many nights as a Tory strategist.

    Or, alternatively, the vote is stickier so less prone to large swings.
    Possibly, swing in 97 Macclesfield was below average but it’s just puzzling that the Tories haven’t been able to rebuild their vote share as effectively. The Lib Dem’s have historically had a chunky vote there and there’s definitely a case for a situation where Tories drop a lot less than average and most of the vote went Lib Dem. You’d end up with something like C:42 L36 Ld16. That would be well out of line with the current suggestion of national swing and more out of line than in 97.
  • Options
    JamesFJamesF Posts: 22
    edited June 3

    Stonch said:

    First perhaps? It’s only taken me 20 years.

    Fourtythree posts in 20 years?! That's a productivity rate that would shame a Network Rail worker.
    Prolific!

    (Basically lurking for 19 years!!)
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,038

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    The old media, in this case the BBC, venting against the new media again.

    Trying to hold back the tide.

    Get those clowns at BBC Verify on the case.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,038
    Heathener said:

    Stonch said:

    First perhaps? It’s only taken me 20 years.

    You were first on 20th November 2014.
    You spent time looking back at every post they made to find that? Goodness :o

    Given they have only made 43 posts it is not the most onerous of burdens.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,337

    Heathener said:

    Excellent thread header @tlg86 thank you.

    But, wow, doesn’t it just show how hard it is to find value in this election? Those odds are disappointing.


    If 1/7 is the true price then 10/11 is remarkable value. They imply an 88 per cent chance as opposed to a 52 per cent chance. Of course, that is a big if. But if TLG86's contention that these are similar constituencies is even halfway correct then the markedly different prices imply value somewhere.
    Uh? The 1/7 is Macclesfield. The 10/11 is a different constituency 200 miles away: Maidstone and Malling.

    But I don’t find either of those odds particularly attractive based on the % chances given by the third party sites mentioned.

    I’d rather take the 1/20 on Keir Starmer being Next PM which is still widely available. You’re basically betting that he doesn’t die in the next 5 weeks.



  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,337
    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Stonch said:

    First perhaps? It’s only taken me 20 years.

    You were first on 20th November 2014.
    You spent time looking back at every post they made to find that? Goodness :o

    Given they have only made 43 posts it is not the most onerous of burdens.
    Just a trifle sad, don’t you feel?

    On which subject, I’m back up to London for some more exhibitions.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,337
    Oh p.s. haven’t noticed anything too outlandish on my TikTok or Insta. Well, no more than usual ;)

    Have a nice day all

    xx
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472

    Heathener said:

    Excellent thread header @tlg86 thank you.

    But, wow, doesn’t it just show how hard it is to find value in this election? Those odds are disappointing.


    If 1/7 is the true price then 10/11 is remarkable value. They imply an 88 per cent chance as opposed to a 52 per cent chance. Of course, that is a big if. But if TLG86's contention that these are similar constituencies is even halfway correct then the markedly different prices imply value somewhere.
    Just to be clear, I don’t think they are similar seats, quite the opposite in fact. I don’t think 10/11 is great value, but if you’re looking for a seat that gets swept along with the Labour tide, Maidstone might be worth considering.

    @ydoethur makes a good point about the vote in Macclesfield perhaps being stickier. We’ve heard a lot about how uniform the swing will be. I wonder if I’m a place like Macclesfield, the Tory vote may hold up better than elsewhere. But, it’s for that reason that the Tories could get an absolute drubbing as their vote goes from being very efficient to very inefficient.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,317
    edited June 3
    Deleted in light of TLG86's post.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203
    Good morning all.

    Well it had to happen - it is Cocks in Frocks day in the election campaign.

    I hope nobody from Labour says anything stupid or gets themselves tied in knots duringan interview.

    Meanwhile the BBC have announced their programme of debates.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    ToryJim said:

    The puzzling question with Maidstone and Malling is given the boundary changes why Helen Grant went for this seat rather than Weald of Kent.

    Macclesfield is really interesting because the Conservative vote share has barely moved since 1997. In 1997 the got 49.6% by 2019 they had pushed it up to 52.5% which is sub par given the national switch in support. Maidstone and Weald the predecessor seat in part to Maidstone and Malling saw a much healthier growth in Tory share from 44.1 to 60.4.

    That suggests to me that Macclesfield is a more difficult proposition for the Tories than Maidstone. May well lose both of course but the Kent seat would not keep me up as many nights as a Tory strategist.

    I forgot to mention that the Tory candidate in Maidstone and Malling is the current MP for Maidstone and The Weald. That should help them, but I’m not sure how much to be honest.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887
    tlg86 said:

    Heathener said:

    Excellent thread header @tlg86 thank you.

    But, wow, doesn’t it just show how hard it is to find value in this election? Those odds are disappointing.


    If 1/7 is the true price then 10/11 is remarkable value. They imply an 88 per cent chance as opposed to a 52 per cent chance. Of course, that is a big if. But if TLG86's contention that these are similar constituencies is even halfway correct then the markedly different prices imply value somewhere.
    Just to be clear, I don’t think they are similar seats, quite the opposite in fact. I don’t think 10/11 is great value, but if you’re looking for a seat that gets swept along with the Labour tide, Maidstone might be worth considering.

    @ydoethur makes a good point about the vote in Macclesfield perhaps being stickier. We’ve heard a lot about how uniform the swing will be. I wonder if I’m a place like Macclesfield, the Tory vote may hold up better than elsewhere. But, it’s for that reason that the Tories could get an absolute drubbing as their vote goes from being very efficient to very inefficient.
    I thought the Macclesfield odds a bit overdone for Labour at 1/7, so have put a fiver on the Tories at 9/2.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    edited June 3

    Hoe can any threader involving Macclesfield not mention The Macc Lads???

    Macclesfield's greatest export.

    I’ll put it down to being too young to have heard of them, but that’s generally not a problem I have (thanks in part to this site!).
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203

    Thought-provoking header from TLG86. What is the east-west divide?

    You board a train in Leeds in glorious sunshine and bale off in Manchester into the pouring rain.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472

    Thought-provoking header from TLG86. What is the east-west divide?

    The west is richer than the east. Imagine a line running down the middle of England through the Pennines then following the West Coast Mainline down to London, continuing through the middle of it and on to the south coast.

    We talk about the north south divide a lot - and it does exist, but there’s an east west divide too.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    Anyone stupid enough to rely on Tiktok for their "news" should be denied the vote.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    tlg86 said:

    ToryJim said:

    The puzzling question with Maidstone and Malling is given the boundary changes why Helen Grant went for this seat rather than Weald of Kent.

    Macclesfield is really interesting because the Conservative vote share has barely moved since 1997. In 1997 the got 49.6% by 2019 they had pushed it up to 52.5% which is sub par given the national switch in support. Maidstone and Weald the predecessor seat in part to Maidstone and Malling saw a much healthier growth in Tory share from 44.1 to 60.4.

    That suggests to me that Macclesfield is a more difficult proposition for the Tories than Maidstone. May well lose both of course but the Kent seat would not keep me up as many nights as a Tory strategist.

    I forgot to mention that the Tory candidate in Maidstone and Malling is the current MP for Maidstone and The Weald. That should help them, but I’m not sure how much to be honest.
    In most cases you’d think so, this time it might be that non-incumbent Tories outperform incumbent ones.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,387

    Good morning all.

    Well it had to happen - it is Cocks in Frocks day in the election campaign.

    That gives me a wonderful vision of all our leading politicians cross-dressing for the day. Presumably with Ed Davey as a pantomime dame.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Looks like we are getting another MRP at 5, our cup runneth over.

    https://x.com/realbenbloch/status/1797509563748639170?s=46
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665

    Thought-provoking header from TLG86. What is the east-west divide?

    You board a train in Leeds in glorious sunshine and bale off in Manchester into the pouring rain.
    Bur you can be happy in the knowledge that you're no longer in Leeds...
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,317

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    Anyone stupid enough to rely on Tiktok for their "news" should be denied the vote.
    That battle has been lost already for the young folk, and for their elders on TwiX or Facebook.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    AFAIK there are three polls and two MRPs being published today. In case you've been missing them.

    https://x.com/samfr/status/1797516017469669866?s=46

  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,248
    tlg86 said:

    Thought-provoking header from TLG86. What is the east-west divide?

    The west is richer than the east. Imagine a line running down the middle of England through the Pennines then following the West Coast Mainline down to London, continuing through the middle of it and on to the south coast.

    We talk about the north south divide a lot - and it does exist, but there’s an east west divide too.
    And also, the response to that in recent years has been for those areas to become more right-wing and Brexity.

    That's not how we usually think of things working. Some of it is down to a reaction to agriculture sucking in immigrant workers, and some of it is down to those areas becoming older as young people with get up and go... get up.and go where the good jobs are.

    So it sort of makes sense, but it's not intuitive.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,634
    edited June 3
    So Monday is war day in the election. Military war for Labour, culture war for the Conservatives

    Kemi Badenoch seems to have been officially anointed minister for culture war. She’s supposed to be Secretary of State for business and trade but has said nothing on that brief during the campaign.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,052
    Excellent piece @tlg86

    I am essentially looking at three types of seat:

    (1) Where LDs are underpriced (affluent constituencies)
    (2) Where Labour are underpriced (where they are nominally third behind the SNP, but could easily leapfrog the Tories to win)
    (3) Where the Tories are odds against but more likely to win

    I have bets in each category. What I have far fewer on is Labour in key marginals, or even longshot targets, where I'm not seeing huge value at the moment.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,052
    ToryJim said:

    AFAIK there are three polls and two MRPs being published today. In case you've been missing them.

    https://x.com/samfr/status/1797516017469669866?s=46

    MRP = My Really-interesting Poll
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,670
    ToryJim said:

    AFAIK there are three polls and two MRPs being published today. In case you've been missing them.

    https://x.com/samfr/status/1797516017469669866?s=46

    Why do the pollsters bother? There can’t be demand for this many polls per day, can there?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,052

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    Anyone stupid enough to rely on Tiktok for their "news" should be denied the vote.
    I am neither on TikTok nor Instagram.

    I can't imagine too many of the Tories core voters are.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887

    ToryJim said:

    AFAIK there are three polls and two MRPs being published today. In case you've been missing them.

    https://x.com/samfr/status/1797516017469669866?s=46

    Why do the pollsters bother? There can’t be demand for this many polls per day, can there?
    Apart from Opinium there wasn't much over the weekend.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    ToryJim said:

    AFAIK there are three polls and two MRPs being published today. In case you've been missing them.

    https://x.com/samfr/status/1797516017469669866?s=46

    Why do the pollsters bother? There can’t be demand for this many polls per day, can there?
    At least we are no longer subject to the horror of the daily YouGov poll. That was excruciating.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    TimS said:

    So Monday is war day in the election. Military war for Labour, culture war for the Conservatives

    Kemi Badenoch seems to have been officially anointed minister for culture war. She’s supposed to be Secretary of State for business and trade but has said nothing on that brief during the campaign.

    I don’t remember her talking about anything other than culture wars since she was appointed Secretary of State for business and trade
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    Anyone stupid enough to rely on Tiktok for their "news" should be denied the vote.
    You should see the nonsense in some Facebook groups - though that is the prime voting cohort.

    And, despite spending nothing, Reform are pummeling the Conservatives on FB..
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,248
    eek said:

    TimS said:

    So Monday is war day in the election. Military war for Labour, culture war for the Conservatives

    Kemi Badenoch seems to have been officially anointed minister for culture war. She’s supposed to be Secretary of State for business and trade but has said nothing on that brief during the campaign.

    I don’t remember her talking about anything other than culture wars since she was appointed Secretary of State for business and trade
    Isn't the Post Office part of her brief?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    So Kemi Badenoch knows that social care is a political issue and confirms that the Tory party isn't going to fix it.

  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669

    ToryJim said:

    AFAIK there are three polls and two MRPs being published today. In case you've been missing them.

    https://x.com/samfr/status/1797516017469669866?s=46

    MRP = My Really-interesting Poll
    Didn't you say you'd ignore the Opinium MRP and wait for the YouGov one? Here it comes...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    So Kemi Badenoch knows that social care is a political issue and confirms that the Tory party isn't going to fix it.

    To be fair, the last time they tried it didn't exactly end well for them.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,248
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    So Kemi Badenoch knows that social care is a political issue and confirms that the Tory party isn't going to fix it.

    Kemi is isn't likely to be fixing anything in government ever again. Her most likely path from here is to resign as Conservative leader after losing in 2028.

    But "false pretences"? Pompous nitwit, and definite shades of tetchy.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,411
    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,052
    Eabhal said:

    ToryJim said:

    AFAIK there are three polls and two MRPs being published today. In case you've been missing them.

    https://x.com/samfr/status/1797516017469669866?s=46

    MRP = My Really-interesting Poll
    Didn't you say you'd ignore the Opinium MRP and wait for the YouGov one? Here it comes...
    Yes, I did.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,670
    DavidL said:

    So what does Judge Merchan do with Donald Trump? Trump gave a speech at the weekend saying the American people would not stand for it if he was locked up or subject to house arrest. Once again, that is a threat to the judicial system, not just to the judge.

    As was seen repeatedly during the trial monetary penalties are of no effect. In fact Trump boasted in the same speech that his campaign had received $39m in the 24 hours following the conviction. Is he really to be allowed to make a profit on his conviction?

    People have repeatedly said that others who are first time felons for this offence are not sent to jail. I think this is seriously misleading. Most, nearly all, of those had failed to declare some of their income and pay proper taxes. Trump is alleged to have conspired to win the Presidency of the United States and, in fact, did so. If that is the verdict of the jury then that verdict requires to be respected by the court.

    Merchan may dodge this on causation, that there is no proof what he did actually changed the result of the election but it is absurd to pretend that Trump is the equivalent of a small time tax dodger (and, of course, he is a tax dodger as well as we saw in the civil case where he had deceived both the banks and the State as to values). Personally, I think he would be ducking his responsibilities to do anything other than sentence him to jail, especially after both the speech at the weekend and indeed immediately after the conviction. Trump is still setting himself above the criminal justice system. That is unacceptable and the challenge cannot be ducked.

    A lot of what Trump has said is protected free speech. Trump’s post-trial behaviour is awful, but it’s not illegal, is it?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,952
    edited June 3

    Sandpit said:

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    It’s most likely to be originating with young political activists hiding behind parody labels - but with a fair share of amplification from foreign state actors, who can cheaply buy tens of thousands of views and likes which push the content up the algorithm.

    The UK election is merely the dry run for the US election in November, which is going to be a total sh!t-show of fake news across both mainstream and social media channels.
    In the UK, the parties’ official communications stick closer to the truth. In the US, the GOP’s entire platform consists of lies: Trump won in 2020, Trump is the persecuted Christ.
    Yes, except hold on, didn't the Conservatives rebrand their Twix account as an impartial fact checker during the debates? Didn't the actual, card-carrying Prime Minister use the Savile slur in the House of Commons? Didn't Jim Hacker tell the Defence Secretary that government press statements are not issued under oath? ETA isn't the Labour Party right now publishing satirical Rishi's election diary videos?
    IIRC the Tory Twitter account was still claiming that Ms Rayner was still under police, even 'criminal', investigation well after she had been cleared by the polis and HMRC. And that was after the Deputy Chairman of the party had been interviewed in puiblic and been completely unable to say what he thought she had done wrong that he reported her to the police.

    I don't think the Tories were doing it for fun (unless a particularly nasty kind of fun, akin to pulling the wings off butterflies).
  • Options
    sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 176

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
    A mystery to me too. She also seems to have quite a short fuse.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
    Badenoch offers leadership in the same way that Swinson provided it to the LibDems.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559

    DavidL said:

    So what does Judge Merchan do with Donald Trump? Trump gave a speech at the weekend saying the American people would not stand for it if he was locked up or subject to house arrest. Once again, that is a threat to the judicial system, not just to the judge.

    As was seen repeatedly during the trial monetary penalties are of no effect. In fact Trump boasted in the same speech that his campaign had received $39m in the 24 hours following the conviction. Is he really to be allowed to make a profit on his conviction?

    People have repeatedly said that others who are first time felons for this offence are not sent to jail. I think this is seriously misleading. Most, nearly all, of those had failed to declare some of their income and pay proper taxes. Trump is alleged to have conspired to win the Presidency of the United States and, in fact, did so. If that is the verdict of the jury then that verdict requires to be respected by the court.

    Merchan may dodge this on causation, that there is no proof what he did actually changed the result of the election but it is absurd to pretend that Trump is the equivalent of a small time tax dodger (and, of course, he is a tax dodger as well as we saw in the civil case where he had deceived both the banks and the State as to values). Personally, I think he would be ducking his responsibilities to do anything other than sentence him to jail, especially after both the speech at the weekend and indeed immediately after the conviction. Trump is still setting himself above the criminal justice system. That is unacceptable and the challenge cannot be ducked.

    A lot of what Trump has said is protected free speech. Trump’s post-trial behaviour is awful, but it’s not illegal, is it?
    In all the U.K. sentencing guidelines I’ve read, contrition and repentance are considered factors. Is it similar in New York?
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,096

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
    Her aggressive anti-woke anti-trans agenda plays well with the diminishing Tory member selectorate. Badenoch is focused entirely on being the next Tory leader, not on the general election.

    The Tory client press who are only normally going through the motions on reporting the general election are lapping up the culture war stuff today. Badenoch will be pleased with that
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    On topic, here’s your Moldovan Picture Quiz

    Why is this peculiar bottle of wine so special?



    Nulu googliniu!!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990

    DavidL said:

    So what does Judge Merchan do with Donald Trump? Trump gave a speech at the weekend saying the American people would not stand for it if he was locked up or subject to house arrest. Once again, that is a threat to the judicial system, not just to the judge.

    As was seen repeatedly during the trial monetary penalties are of no effect. In fact Trump boasted in the same speech that his campaign had received $39m in the 24 hours following the conviction. Is he really to be allowed to make a profit on his conviction?

    People have repeatedly said that others who are first time felons for this offence are not sent to jail. I think this is seriously misleading. Most, nearly all, of those had failed to declare some of their income and pay proper taxes. Trump is alleged to have conspired to win the Presidency of the United States and, in fact, did so. If that is the verdict of the jury then that verdict requires to be respected by the court.

    Merchan may dodge this on causation, that there is no proof what he did actually changed the result of the election but it is absurd to pretend that Trump is the equivalent of a small time tax dodger (and, of course, he is a tax dodger as well as we saw in the civil case where he had deceived both the banks and the State as to values). Personally, I think he would be ducking his responsibilities to do anything other than sentence him to jail, especially after both the speech at the weekend and indeed immediately after the conviction. Trump is still setting himself above the criminal justice system. That is unacceptable and the challenge cannot be ducked.

    A lot of what Trump has said is protected free speech. Trump’s post-trial behaviour is awful, but it’s not illegal, is it?
    Its not illegal but it is certainly an aggravation. Usually, a felon convicted will express remorse or at least have some form of acknowledgment of the consequences of his actions. Here, it is the reverse. Trump genuinely seems to believe that he is above the law (as he has expressly claimed in his appeal to the Supreme Court, which his pals on the SC are still delaying to ensure that trial does not proceed). To meekly accept this would be to undermine the criminal justice system in my view.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
    It’s because she is willing to spout the claptrap that a significant portion of idiot Tories are signed up to. What stuns me is the way certain Tory politicians take the GB news shilling and certain Tory supporters fall over themselves to big up that outlet when their agenda is antithetical to the survival of an electable Tory party.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,926
    Some years back the LibDems had their eye on Maidstone as a long shot target. I guess the activity there has fallen away since the coalition.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,906
    On thread: this data is all very interesting - but I'd suggest the key data is age profiles. I'd say Macclesfield is older, and the swing against Con will be smaller where that is true - and therefore Macclesfield may be the better bet.

    I'd say when looking for value, this might be the key stat.
    I think this is the relevant link!

    https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiOWUyNzNmM2ItYzVjMS00YWRlLWFmZDUtZjljMGQyMmI1YTczIiwidCI6IjFjZTZkZDllLWIzMzctNDA4OC1iZTVlLThkYmJlYzA0YjM0YSIsImMiOjh9
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,052
    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
    It’s because she is willing to spout the claptrap that a significant portion of idiot Tories are signed up to. What stuns me is the way certain Tory politicians take the GB news shilling and certain Tory supporters fall over themselves to big up that outlet when their agenda is antithetical to the survival of an electable Tory party.
    I think she's bang-on with identity politics.

    Whether she's ready to be leader is another matter.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    edited June 3
    While we’ve moved on to the subject of Moldova, my respect for the local guides has very very slightly diminished. They’ve given me lots of Moldovan history - not least the entire history of Chisinau

    Somehow they omitted to tell me this city was the scene of history’s most notorious Jewish pogrom - which changed the course of world politics in several ways (encouraging Zionism, moulding the nascent Russian communist party, affirming the Monroe Doctrine, uniting Jews and blacks in the USA in the NAACP, and more)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kishinev_pogrom

  • Options
    pm215pm215 Posts: 987
    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Stonch said:

    First perhaps? It’s only taken me 20 years.

    You were first on 20th November 2014.
    You spent time looking back at every post they made to find that? Goodness :o

    Given they have only made 43 posts it is not the most onerous of burdens.
    Just a trifle sad, don’t you feel?

    On which subject, I’m back up to London for some more exhibitions.
    I went to see the Great Exhibition yesterday, but apparently I was 170 years too late. Still, at least they hadn't taken the dinosaur exhibit down yet :-)

    I also wandered round the Science Museum's Secret Life of the Home gallery before it closed forever. Anybody else a fan of the Tim Hunkin TV programmes when they were younger?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,199

    Stonch said:

    First perhaps? It’s only taken me 20 years.

    Fourtythree posts in 20 years?! That's a productivity rate that would shame a Network Rail worker.
    Nearly five percent are firsts, though.
    Who else can boast a similar hit rate ?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    Cookie said:

    On thread: this data is all very interesting - but I'd suggest the key data is age profiles. I'd say Macclesfield is older, and the swing against Con will be smaller where that is true - and therefore Macclesfield may be the better bet.

    I'd say when looking for value, this might be the key stat.
    I think this is the relevant link!

    https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiOWUyNzNmM2ItYzVjMS00YWRlLWFmZDUtZjljMGQyMmI1YTczIiwidCI6IjFjZTZkZDllLWIzMzctNDA4OC1iZTVlLThkYmJlYzA0YjM0YSIsImMiOjh9

    It may be, this time, that the more important stat will be the percentage with mortgages who are struggling after the (long overdue) recent interest rate rises.

    But it highlights a more general point. I would be reluctant to bet on the outcome of any constituency I did not know well. There is always more to learn.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,199

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    So Kemi Badenoch knows that social care is a political issue and confirms that the Tory party isn't going to fix it.

    Kemi is isn't likely to be fixing anything in government ever again. Her most likely path from here is to resign as Conservative leader after losing in 2028.

    But "false pretences"? Pompous nitwit, and definite shades of tetchy.
    A long spell on the opposition backbenches would be my prescription for that kind of entitlement.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,669
    edited June 3
    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
    It’s because she is willing to spout the claptrap that a significant portion of idiot Tories are signed up to. What stuns me is the way certain Tory politicians take the GB news shilling and certain Tory supporters fall over themselves to big up that outlet when their agenda is antithetical to the survival of an electable Tory party.
    I suspect that current Tory voters are actually quite reasonable on social matters. They don't like the look of Labour but certainly do not like the look of Reform either. Rich, retired RSPB member types, perhaps?

    If the polling is correct, the culture warriors have already abandoned them for Reform.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    Nigelb said:

    Stonch said:

    First perhaps? It’s only taken me 20 years.

    Fourtythree posts in 20 years?! That's a productivity rate that would shame a Network Rail worker.
    Nearly five percent are firsts, though.
    Who else can boast a similar hit rate ?
    Nigelb said:

    Stonch said:

    First perhaps? It’s only taken me 20 years.

    Fourtythree posts in 20 years?! That's a productivity rate that would shame a Network Rail worker.
    Nearly five percent are firsts, though.
    Who else can boast a similar hit rate ?
    Work smarter, not harder.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,906

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    Anyone stupid enough to rely on Tiktok for their "news" should be denied the vote.
    I am neither on TikTok nor Instagram.

    I can't imagine too many of the Tories core voters are.
    ISTR hearing about 50% of UK adults get their news from tiktok.

    I remember being dumbfounded a few years back when discussing facebook with an outwardly intelligent family member - she's an academic at Cambridge University - who told me facebook was her main source of news: essentially like minded individuals whipping each other up into paroxysms of outrage. I don't think any one political bloc has a monopoly on this.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @PaulBrandITV

    NEW: The Conservatives are pledging to rewrite the Equality Act, altering the protected characteristic of "sex" to explicitly mean "biological sex".

    The party says this will protect services for women and girls, preventing "biological males" from taking part.

    @PaulBrandITV

    This sounds clear in principle, but the practicalities are rapidly unravelling this morning. The Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch can’t say what paper work (eg birth certificate) would define biological sex in such cases.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,906

    Nigelb said:

    Stonch said:

    First perhaps? It’s only taken me 20 years.

    Fourtythree posts in 20 years?! That's a productivity rate that would shame a Network Rail worker.
    Nearly five percent are firsts, though.
    Who else can boast a similar hit rate ?
    Nigelb said:

    Stonch said:

    First perhaps? It’s only taken me 20 years.

    Fourtythree posts in 20 years?! That's a productivity rate that would shame a Network Rail worker.
    Nearly five percent are firsts, though.
    Who else can boast a similar hit rate ?
    Work smarter, not harder.
    Stonch still exists? That's a blast from the past.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,853
    JamesF said:

    Stonch said:

    First perhaps? It’s only taken me 20 years.

    Fourtythree posts in 20 years?! That's a productivity rate that would shame a Network Rail worker.
    Prolific!

    (Basically lurking for 19 years!!)
    A very distinguished bunch, the PB lurkers. They contain some of our greatest followers.

    No need to divulge any secrets, James, but I assume you are a Cabinet Minister.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @steverichards14

    If Kemi Badenoch is the answer to the Tories’ deep crisis they are in even more trouble…In interviews this morning ..unprepared..no grip on detail of vague populist policy announcement..irritable..and no deftness.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,248

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
    It’s because she is willing to spout the claptrap that a significant portion of idiot Tories are signed up to. What stuns me is the way certain Tory politicians take the GB news shilling and certain Tory supporters fall over themselves to big up that outlet when their agenda is antithetical to the survival of an electable Tory party.
    I think she's bang-on with identity politics.

    Whether she's ready to be leader is another matter.
    Fair summary. She'd be the "please ourselves" candidate in the leadership election.

    That's not an entirely silly way for a party to go after a big defeat. As with Susan Hall in London, she probably has a highish floor and she stops further drift of voters to the right. It's not a winning strategy, but it might be the best survival strategy.

    Important caveat though. A leader who does this has to be self-aware that their job is to keep the party on life support until an actual PM-in-waiting emerges. And humble enough hand over to someone different to themselves. Michael Howard is probably the best recent example of this. I'm not sure KB is like that, though she may surprise us.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,052
    Cookie said:

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    Anyone stupid enough to rely on Tiktok for their "news" should be denied the vote.
    I am neither on TikTok nor Instagram.

    I can't imagine too many of the Tories core voters are.
    ISTR hearing about 50% of UK adults get their news from tiktok.

    I remember being dumbfounded a few years back when discussing facebook with an outwardly intelligent family member - she's an academic at Cambridge University - who told me facebook was her main source of news: essentially like minded individuals whipping each other up into paroxysms of outrage. I don't think any one political bloc has a monopoly on this.
    I'd be astonished if it was that high, unless it means social media in its broadest sense.

    For younger people I can imagine it's more TikTok.

    Call me old fashioned but I read the papers (online), BBC News and (occasionally) Twitter bulletins.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    edited June 3
    Cookie said:

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    Anyone stupid enough to rely on Tiktok for their "news" should be denied the vote.
    I am neither on TikTok nor Instagram.

    I can't imagine too many of the Tories core voters are.
    ISTR hearing about 50% of UK adults get their news from tiktok.

    I remember being dumbfounded a few years back when discussing facebook with an outwardly intelligent family member - she's an academic at Cambridge University - who told me facebook was her main source of news: essentially like minded individuals whipping each other up into paroxysms of outrage. I don't think any one political bloc has a monopoly on this.
    But that is itself a sign of stupidity - limiting your news sources in this way. So she’s not that clever

    There’s an interesting debate on TwiX at the moment which purports to show men are significantly cleverer than women, on average, because men are inherently more curious (there is much data to back this up). It makes sense from one perspective as curiosity is a form of intellectual risk - if you are curious you take a risk as you are going to encounter facts and news stories you do not like, which challenge your world view; men are known to take more risks, women are risk averse (for good evolutionary reasons) therefore women are less curious, therefore less intelligent and less well informed

    I’m not sure I believe this proves men are smarter - I see evidence pointing the other way as well. But I do believe intellectual risk/curiosity is a crucial metric of intelligence. And a lot of apparently smart people lack it. They don’t want to know, they get all their facts from friends on Facebook. So they are much stupider than they appear

    We see it here all the time. We see it also in people who refuse to travel. They are incurious about the world or scared of the risks entailed in seeing it. They are stupid in quite important ways
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,237

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    We have created a very dangerous weapon and handed it to our enemies.

    But our politicians fail to understand
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,138
    As we enter week 3 of the general election campaign, here's what the Tories are still not talking about - the cost of living, the NHS, public services, housing, transport, defence, sewage in our rives and seas ...

  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
    It’s because she is willing to spout the claptrap that a significant portion of idiot Tories are signed up to. What stuns me is the way certain Tory politicians take the GB news shilling and certain Tory supporters fall over themselves to big up that outlet when their agenda is antithetical to the survival of an electable Tory party.
    I think she's bang-on with identity politics.

    Whether she's ready to be leader is another matter.
    I’d say that aspects of the analysis are correct, the solutions that are proposed are more problematic. I have no issues with ensuring that biological women have proper protection in single sex spaces but too often rather than treat the problem as bad actors in the trans space the likes of Kemi and her ilk give the impression that Trans people are nothing but bad actors. That’s wrong and won’t help anyone get to the right place on this issue.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    Cookie said:

    AI fakes, abuse and misinformation pushed to young voters on TikTok
    ...
    Videos which have racked up hundreds of thousands of views have promoted unfounded rumours that a major scandal prompted Rishi Sunak to call an early election and the baseless claim that Sir Keir Starmer was responsible for the failure to prosecute serial paedophile Jimmy Savile.
    ...
    Other AI-generated videos share misleading claims about [Sunak's] national service pledge for 18-year-olds, suggesting young people would be sent to current war zones in Ukraine and Gaza.

    Some of these are described as satire or parody in captions, but the comments suggest some users are confused about which claims are factual.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

    Russian trolls? Bored boys in bedrooms? Party-aligned activists? They don't say. One thing mentioned that we have seen on pb is people missing satire or parody labels. Even if these are not used for plausible deniability, there is a problem.

    Anyone stupid enough to rely on Tiktok for their "news" should be denied the vote.
    I am neither on TikTok nor Instagram.

    I can't imagine too many of the Tories core voters are.
    ISTR hearing about 50% of UK adults get their news from tiktok.

    I remember being dumbfounded a few years back when discussing facebook with an outwardly intelligent family member - she's an academic at Cambridge University - who told me facebook was her main source of news: essentially like minded individuals whipping each other up into paroxysms of outrage. I don't think any one political bloc has a monopoly on this.
    An astonishing number of people get most of their news from less-than-mainstream sources, where rules on elections generally aren’t enforceable outside of posts by official accounts of parties and candidates.

    It’s bad enough the rest of the time, with algorithms seemingly designed to keep people angry and engaged, but there’s going to be all sorts of people, including foreign state actors, with a keen interest in spreading disinformation in the run up to an election.

    Remember that the Russians and Chinese really don’t care who wins, only that the polarisation is amplified and people see ‘the other side’ winning as an existential threat to the country. This is pretty much where the US is now, with freedom of speech protections being taken advantage of to spread lies, and two political halves of the country hating each other.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
    It’s because she is willing to spout the claptrap that a significant portion of idiot Tories are signed up to. What stuns me is the way certain Tory politicians take the GB news shilling and certain Tory supporters fall over themselves to big up that outlet when their agenda is antithetical to the survival of an electable Tory party.
    I think she's bang-on with identity politics.

    Whether she's ready to be leader is another matter.
    Fair summary. She'd be the "please ourselves" candidate in the leadership election.

    That's not an entirely silly way for a party to go after a big defeat. As with Susan Hall in London, she probably has a highish floor and she stops further drift of voters to the right. It's not a winning strategy, but it might be the best survival strategy.

    Important caveat though. A leader who does this has to be self-aware that their job is to keep the party on life support until an actual PM-in-waiting emerges. And humble enough hand over to someone different to themselves. Michael Howard is probably the best recent example of this. I'm not sure KB is like that, though she may surprise us.
    Michael Howard had the advantage of being quite old and having already retired and un-retired once.

    Badenoch is young and ambitious - almost 20 years younger than Howard was. That self awareness would be more difficult for her to manage.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,952
    edited June 3
    Eabhal said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
    It’s because she is willing to spout the claptrap that a significant portion of idiot Tories are signed up to. What stuns me is the way certain Tory politicians take the GB news shilling and certain Tory supporters fall over themselves to big up that outlet when their agenda is antithetical to the survival of an electable Tory party.
    I suspect that current Tory voters are actually quite reasonable on social matters. They don't like the look of Labour but certainly do not like the look of Reform either. Rich, retired RSPB member types, perhaps?

    If the polling is correct, the culture warriors have already abandoned them for Reform.
    Another (overlapping) group would be RNLI supporters, who have not forgotten the hounding of the RNLI over rescuing boat people, and the abuse of the Parliamentary process to threaten the RNLI.

    Edit: ditto National Trust. When a Victorian mansion builder gets denounced 140 years later on PB for displaying a statue of a freed slave in a special alcove ...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    As we enter week 3 of the general election campaign, here's what the Tories are still not talking about - the cost of living, the NHS, public services, housing, transport, defence, sewage in our rives and seas ...

    They have nothing to say on them after 14 years in power.

    So far, I haven't seen Labour say anything on them either, but that may just be because I've been busy.

    The Liberal Democrats have been talking about sewage and doing press stunts.

    This campaign really has been depressing for those wanting solutions to our problems.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,038

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
    It’s because she is willing to spout the claptrap that a significant portion of idiot Tories are signed up to. What stuns me is the way certain Tory politicians take the GB news shilling and certain Tory supporters fall over themselves to big up that outlet when their agenda is antithetical to the survival of an electable Tory party.
    I think she's bang-on with identity politics.

    Whether she's ready to be leader is another matter.
    Fair summary. She'd be the "please ourselves" candidate in the leadership election.

    That's not an entirely silly way for a party to go after a big defeat. As with Susan Hall in London, she probably has a highish floor and she stops further drift of voters to the right. It's not a winning strategy, but it might be the best survival strategy.

    Important caveat though. A leader who does this has to be self-aware that their job is to keep the party on life support until an actual PM-in-waiting emerges. And humble enough hand over to someone different to themselves. Michael Howard is probably the best recent example of this. I'm not sure KB is like that, though she may surprise us.
    Possibly. Or she may start off on the right and go on a "journey" to the centre. A sort of reverse Liz Truss.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,125
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Royale, while he also reads (digitally) the paper, my dad's on Facebook a fair bit. I suspect quite a few people get their news that way.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    Leon said:

    On topic, here’s your Moldovan Picture Quiz

    Why is this peculiar bottle of wine so special?



    Nulu googliniu!!

    Oh come on. It’s not that hard. Its a bottle of “sweet Jerusalem wine from 1902”

    Here’s a clue: related bottles can be found in Georgia and (I think) Armenia
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    A question, for those who know:

    If (if) Trump is sentenced to jail, does it *have* to be stayed if he appeals under New York law, or can he just be 'taken down' straight away?
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,329
    ydoethur said:

    As we enter week 3 of the general election campaign, here's what the Tories are still not talking about - the cost of living, the NHS, public services, housing, transport, defence, sewage in our rives and seas ...

    They have nothing to say on them after 14 years in power.

    So far, I haven't seen Labour say anything on them either, but that may just be because I've been busy.

    The Liberal Democrats have been talking about sewage and doing press stunts.

    This campaign really has been depressing for those wanting solutions to our problems.
    Sunak did propose national service.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KateEMcCann
    Ooof. Kemi Badenoch accuses @StigAbell of inviting her on @TimesRadio breakfast under “false pretences” because he asked her about … social care. After asking her about equalities for 80 per cent of the interview. Asking Cabinet ministers about election manifesto policy definitely isn’t off limits… usually.

    How people see Badenoch as leadership material is beyond me. She really really doesn’t have it. At least Penny Mordaunt has charm.
    It’s because she is willing to spout the claptrap that a significant portion of idiot Tories are signed up to. What stuns me is the way certain Tory politicians take the GB news shilling and certain Tory supporters fall over themselves to big up that outlet when their agenda is antithetical to the survival of an electable Tory party.
    I think she's bang-on with identity politics.

    Whether she's ready to be leader is another matter.
    I’d say that aspects of the analysis are correct, the solutions that are proposed are more problematic. I have no issues with ensuring that biological women have proper protection in single sex spaces but too often rather than treat the problem as bad actors in the trans space the likes of Kemi and her ilk give the impression that Trans people are nothing but bad actors. That’s wrong and won’t help anyone get to the right place on this issue.
    But treating Trans people as nothing but bad actors is a core vote policy - because the nuance that only some Trans people are bad actors requires a level of attention to detail that is beyond their core vote (and seemingly always beyond the capability of the politicians getting involved in this discussion).
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,518
    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    As we enter week 3 of the general election campaign, here's what the Tories are still not talking about - the cost of living, the NHS, public services, housing, transport, defence, sewage in our rives and seas ...

    They have nothing to say on them after 14 years in power.

    So far, I haven't seen Labour say anything on them either, but that may just be because I've been busy.

    The Liberal Democrats have been talking about sewage and doing press stunts.

    This campaign really has been depressing for those wanting solutions to our problems.
    Sunak did propose national service.
    ...who do you think you are kidding, Mr Hitler?..
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,125
    Mr. Leon, it's unreasonable for you to expect people to be au fait with such a vulgarly recent period of history.
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    JamesFJamesF Posts: 22

    JamesF said:

    Stonch said:

    First perhaps? It’s only taken me 20 years.

    Fourtythree posts in 20 years?! That's a productivity rate that would shame a Network Rail worker.
    Prolific!

    (Basically lurking for 19 years!!)
    A very distinguished bunch, the PB lurkers. They contain some of our greatest followers.

    No need to divulge any secrets, James, but I assume you are a Cabinet Minister.
    Shh!
This discussion has been closed.