New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19 🔵Conservative 26 (-1) 🔴Labour 45 (+1) 🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-) 🟢Green 5 (-1) 🟣Reform UK 11 (+1) Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008
The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.
It’s all just tiny MOE stuff.
Are you saying that the YouGov movement for Labour from 44% to 47%, with a sample size of 2128, is within margin of error?
Of course it is!
You do realise that MoE being ± means that double the MoE movement is still within MoE, don't you?
I’m not sure he does!
I'm starting to wonder whether anyone here has the slightest inkling about statistics.
Here's a baby step for you. What's the variance of the difference between two normally distributed variables? What is the mean? And what is the distribution? Does the answer give you a clue as to tell whether the difference between two sample values is statistically significant?
The changes in all polls in the last few days have been within the MOE, as I said. It really is that simple.
One interesting slide is a focus on Conservative 2019 female don't knows. Conservative to undecided voters are overwhelmingly female - Whitby Woman. 72 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2019 and now don’t know how they will vote are female. This group skews much older than the rest of the population and are likely to own their home. They are also much more small-c conservative than the rest of the country - coming largely from our Backbone Conservative and Loyal National segments - which supports the idea a large number are in fact disgruntled Conservatives.
Not the usual marginal picture, so may not have much impact?
Worth looking at constituencies in those buckets.
There may be some value in backing the Tories in those seats.
The 1.pm News was wall to wall Starmer's misstep/duplicity/arrogance over Abbott. Unlikely to move the dial but you'd have to have a heart of stone not to be moved.
She seems genuinely bewildered and upset. I don't feel Starmer is a particularly straight dealer.
With Blair in '97 you felt instinctively he'd do the right thing. With Starmer I have no such feeling.
To be honest, that does not say much for your instincts.
Following on from my comment below (I know you'll mostly be too busy posting likes to get around to this one as swiftly as usual), where are the new ideas in British politics? I don't mean who's a genius and has managed to come up with stuff that the Greeks hadn't thought of, but where is there actual bravery and thought as to possible solutions to the many big problems that are ahead?
We the public don't respond well to new ideas, and our politicians are not brave enough to make us.
The latest version of the Abbott and can she stand seems to be an informal recommendation of barring her is in front of a three person NEC committee for decision by next week. This should be taken as fact until 6.37pm when we will see what the latest is
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Where's the hypocrisy? That she bought a Council house and hasn't become a Tory? The absolute cheek of it!
Housing Act 1985
121c This section sets out that all purchases of a council house must vote Conservative in perpetuity, especially if they are working class and/or female.
I think you got the wrong section. There is an extension to it that allows for Labour politicians to exploit the sale of two council houses, and unlike normal people they are exempt from the proper scrutiny that ought to be applied by HMRC. It is called Trump's Law and it allows special dispensations for those in positions (or about to be in) of power
The last Labour deputy PM had "Two Jags" as an epithet, which had a slightly better ring than "Two Council Houses" and was slightly less hypocritical.
Got to say you are really (laughingly) struggling to come up with a decent anti-labour attack line.
I don't need an anti-Labour "attack line", as they provide them for themselves in the same way Jas politicians on all sides do. The problem is many people are just too politically tribalist to see it. "My party right or wrong" is clearly your mantra. Why is it some otherwise intelligent people find it necessary to look the other way when someone from the party they support is on obvious dodgy ground? Oh, she is "working class" (people still believe in this archaic shit), so therefore she is something close to saintliness. Be more open minded. Maybe she made a mistake. Maybe she really is very stupid. Labour is going to make her deputy PM because she is "working class". There are going to be lots of lols!.
She will be deputy PM because she won the deputy leader election campaign - no more to it than that...
But I find you attempts to attack her desperate - firstly who on this site cares what you think
and secondly if you have dealt with broken families you will discover whole sets of very different situations that from the outside after don't make much sense but people make work..
I award you the Political Tribalist Medal 2nd class 2024 for services to the politically hypocritical.
Following on from my comment below (I know you'll mostly be too busy posting likes to get around to this one as swiftly as usual), where are the new ideas in British politics? I don't mean who's a genius and has managed to come up with stuff that the Greeks hadn't thought of, but where is there actual bravery and thought as to possible solutions to the many big problems that are ahead?
We the public don't respond well to new ideas, and our politicians are not brave enough to make us.
Following on from my comment below (I know you'll mostly be too busy posting likes to get around to this one as swiftly as usual), where are the new ideas in British politics? I don't mean who's a genius and has managed to come up with stuff that the Greeks hadn't thought of, but where is there actual bravery and thought as to possible solutions to the many big problems that are ahead?
We the public don't respond well to new ideas, and our politicians are not brave enough to make us.
Wasn't that the Thatcher trick though? New ideas?
Make the new ideas look like old ideas as you're probably fine.
Josiah Mortimer @josiahmortimer Liz Truss tells the right-wing Lotus Eaters 'Tomlinson Talks' show just now: "We need to repeal the Human Rights Act, abolish the Supreme Court, repeal the Equality Act...You need to abolish the OBR"
Chaminda Jayanetti @cjayanetti must admit, I knew Truss was a fucking idiot who'd be a shit prime minister, but I didn't quite expect the Katie Hopkins arc
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Where's the hypocrisy? That she bought a Council house and hasn't become a Tory? The absolute cheek of it!
Housing Act 1985
121c This section sets out that all purchases of a council house must vote Conservative in perpetuity, especially if they are working class and/or female.
I think you got the wrong section. There is an extension to it that allows for Labour politicians to exploit the sale of two council houses, and unlike normal people they are exempt from the proper scrutiny that ought to be applied by HMRC. It is called Trump's Law and it allows special dispensations for those in positions (or about to be in) of power
The last Labour deputy PM had "Two Jags" as an epithet, which had a slightly better ring than "Two Council Houses" and was slightly less hypocritical.
Got to say you are really (laughingly) struggling to come up with a decent anti-labour attack line.
I don't need an anti-Labour "attack line", as they provide them for themselves in the same way Jas politicians on all sides do. The problem is many people are just too politically tribalist to see it. "My party right or wrong" is clearly your mantra. Why is it some otherwise intelligent people find it necessary to look the other way when someone from the party they support is on obvious dodgy ground? Oh, she is "working class" (people still believe in this archaic shit), so therefore she is something close to saintliness. Be more open minded. Maybe she made a mistake. Maybe she really is very stupid. Labour is going to make her deputy PM because she is "working class". There are going to be lots of lols!.
She will be deputy PM because she won the deputy leader election campaign - no more to it than that...
But I find you attempts to attack her desperate - firstly who on this site cares what you think
and secondly if you have dealt with broken families you will discover whole sets of very different situations that from the outside after don't make much sense but people make work..
BEing deputy leader does not automatically mean being deputy PM. Harriet Harman was Deputy Leader while Peter Mandelson was deputy PM.
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Where's the hypocrisy? That she bought a Council house and hasn't become a Tory? The absolute cheek of it!
Housing Act 1985
121c This section sets out that all purchases of a council house must vote Conservative in perpetuity, especially if they are working class and/or female.
I think you got the wrong section. There is an extension to it that allows for Labour politicians to exploit the sale of two council houses, and unlike normal people they are exempt from the proper scrutiny that ought to be applied by HMRC. It is called Trump's Law and it allows special dispensations for those in positions (or about to be in) of power
The last Labour deputy PM had "Two Jags" as an epithet, which had a slightly better ring than "Two Council Houses" and was slightly less hypocritical.
Got to say you are really (laughingly) struggling to come up with a decent anti-labour attack line.
I don't need an anti-Labour "attack line", as they provide them for themselves in the same way Jas politicians on all sides do. The problem is many people are just too politically tribalist to see it. "My party right or wrong" is clearly your mantra. Why is it some otherwise intelligent people find it necessary to look the other way when someone from the party they support is on obvious dodgy ground? Oh, she is "working class" (people still believe in this archaic shit), so therefore she is something close to saintliness. Be more open minded. Maybe she made a mistake. Maybe she really is very stupid. Labour is going to make her deputy PM because she is "working class". There are going to be lots of lols!.
She will be deputy PM because she won the deputy leader election campaign - no more to it than that...
But I find you attempts to attack her desperate - firstly who on this site cares what you think
and secondly if you have dealt with broken families you will discover whole sets of very different situations that from the outside after don't make much sense but people make work..
I award you the Political Tribalist Medal 2nd class 2024 for services to the politically hypocritical.
Which part of she was elected Deputy PM 4 years ago have you failed to grasp - she's not saintly but it's clear that the worst she did was not pay a few hundred quid in Capital Gains Tax that doesn't seem to have been required in the first place.
It's the clutchest of clutching at straws for an attack point...
I really would expect someone on here to have better arguments and better source material...
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Where's the hypocrisy? That she bought a Council house and hasn't become a Tory? The absolute cheek of it!
Housing Act 1985
121c This section sets out that all purchases of a council house must vote Conservative in perpetuity, especially if they are working class and/or female.
I think you got the wrong section. There is an extension to it that allows for Labour politicians to exploit the sale of two council houses, and unlike normal people they are exempt from the proper scrutiny that ought to be applied by HMRC. It is called Trump's Law and it allows special dispensations for those in positions (or about to be in) of power
The last Labour deputy PM had "Two Jags" as an epithet, which had a slightly better ring than "Two Council Houses" and was slightly less hypocritical.
Got to say you are really (laughingly) struggling to come up with a decent anti-labour attack line.
I don't need an anti-Labour "attack line", as they provide them for themselves in the same way Jas politicians on all sides do. The problem is many people are just too politically tribalist to see it. "My party right or wrong" is clearly your mantra. Why is it some otherwise intelligent people find it necessary to look the other way when someone from the party they support is on obvious dodgy ground? Oh, she is "working class" (people still believe in this archaic shit), so therefore she is something close to saintliness. Be more open minded. Maybe she made a mistake. Maybe she really is very stupid. Labour is going to make her deputy PM because she is "working class". There are going to be lots of lols!.
Everyone on here is tribalist. Neutrals don't spend their time on a political website. At the moment it feels Labour but that's because the the Tory posters hibernate when things look bleak.
When I first posted here it was at least 75% Tory. The only thing that kept it civilized was Mike who was solidly Guardianista /Lib Dem
One interesting slide is a focus on Conservative 2019 female don't knows. Conservative to undecided voters are overwhelmingly female - Whitby Woman. 72 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2019 and now don’t know how they will vote are female. This group skews much older than the rest of the population and are likely to own their home. They are also much more small-c conservative than the rest of the country - coming largely from our Backbone Conservative and Loyal National segments - which supports the idea a large number are in fact disgruntled Conservatives.
Not the usual marginal picture, so may not have much impact?
Worth looking at constituencies in those buckets.
There may be some value in backing the Tories in those seats.
Just eyeballing the map it looks like areas where the Tories' post-2016 coalition is heavily concentrated, ie the new Tory heartlands.
The latest version of the Abbott and can she stand seems to be an informal recommendation of barring her is in front of a three person NEC committee for decision by next week. This should be taken as fact until 6.37pm when we will see what the latest is
It does seem to smack somewhat of Johnson clearing out people that he didn't like. It isn't really a good look for Starmer.
I'm in Lloyd Russell-Moyle's constituency - his suspension won't go down well. I'm not personally a fan, but his profile in his constituency is very impressive; he's always around, highly visible, works his socks off, seems to know everybody and does an awful lot of 'good things' in the community.
I’m down the road in Peter Kyle’s constituency. It was noticeable that LRM wasn’t at the SKS meet n’greet at Preston Park.
There isn't enough time to defend myself as these processes within the party take too long, so the party have told me that I will not be eligible to be a candidate at the next election.
I don’t agree with his view on women’s rights - but this is very shoddy.
Re the Labour clearout, there is also an attempt ongoing to deselect Aspana Begum
That's slightly different no? It's been going on a while and is more a very ugly intra-community dispute involving her ex than any attempt from on high to ditch left-wingers.
Josiah Mortimer @josiahmortimer Liz Truss tells the right-wing Lotus Eaters 'Tomlinson Talks' show just now: "We need to repeal the Human Rights Act, abolish the Supreme Court, repeal the Equality Act...You need to abolish the OBR"
Chaminda Jayanetti @cjayanetti must admit, I knew Truss was a fucking idiot who'd be a shit prime minister, but I didn't quite expect the Katie Hopkins arc
Yes but if we abolish the Equality Act there will be a loads of newly permissible reasons not to offer services or employment to Liz Truss. So there’s that.
Josiah Mortimer @josiahmortimer Liz Truss tells the right-wing Lotus Eaters 'Tomlinson Talks' show just now: "We need to repeal the Human Rights Act, abolish the Supreme Court, repeal the Equality Act...You need to abolish the OBR"
Chaminda Jayanetti @cjayanetti must admit, I knew Truss was a fucking idiot who'd be a shit prime minister, but I didn't quite expect the Katie Hopkins arc
She kept pretty quiet after her ousing, and I kind of admire that such an epic humiliation did not destroy her. Given things have gone poorly I'd assume she would have focused on trying to say her economic plans were right all along, but she seems to be more interested in culture war stuff instead.
I'm in Lloyd Russell-Moyle's constituency - his suspension won't go down well. I'm not personally a fan, but his profile in his constituency is very impressive; he's always around, highly visible, works his socks off, seems to know everybody and does an awful lot of 'good things' in the community.
I’m down the road in Peter Kyle’s constituency. It was noticeable that LRM wasn’t at the SKS meet n’greet at Preston Park.
There isn't enough time to defend myself as these processes within the party take too long, so the party have told me that I will not be eligible to be a candidate at the next election.
The latest version of the Abbott and can she stand seems to be an informal recommendation of barring her is in front of a three person NEC committee for decision by next week. This should be taken as fact until 6.37pm when we will see what the latest is
It does seem to smack somewhat of Johnson clearing out people that he didn't like. It isn't really a good look for Starmer.
It is curious timing to say the least - given how long parties tend to take on investigations and suspensions it could have been any time in the last 4-6 months and they could have been confident they would have been suspended come a GE in 2024.
Military Officers willing to resign for a safe Labour seat - can see why they want to do so and why Labour may want some expertise in that area available...
Re the Labour clearout, there is also an attempt ongoing to deselect Aspana Begum
That's slightly different no? It's been going on a while and is more a very ugly intra-community dispute involving her ex than any attempt from on high to ditch left-wingers.
I think the Abbott debacle (along with other mis-steps) shows Starmer’s political inexperience.
We’re about to replace one politically inexperienced technocrat with another. Both men are smart, both sincere in wanting to better the country’s lot, via different routes, both have been in front line politics for less than a decade.
That’s why I fear he relies too heavily on SPADs, who are “clever”.
I suspect we’re in for a bumpy ride.
Sunak has allowed/will allow the Bank of England to burn £150bn of public money on their crazy bond scheme this year. That's money that could have been spent on health, education, paying off the national debt, equipping the armed services, or finishing HS2. That vast sinkhole in the public finances is a bigger political issue than any of the utter rubbish that the silly pair have flung at each other about during PMQs, and they are both maintaining a polite silence about it. How can you know that, and suggest that either of these men are sincere in their desire to better the country?
Why does Angela Rayner wind people up here so much when no one gave a shit about Nadhim Zahawi? I know the posters here lean right and are largely reflexively anti-Labour but it really doesn’t speak well of PBers.
The latest version of the Abbott and can she stand seems to be an informal recommendation of barring her is in front of a three person NEC committee for decision by next week. This should be taken as fact until 6.37pm when we will see what the latest is
It does seem to smack somewhat of Johnson clearing out people that he didn't like. It isn't really a good look for Starmer.
He’s very, very lucky that Corbyn is tribally Labour and hasn’t created a party around these folk and attacked his left flank. Many in his position would have.
The latest version of the Abbott and can she stand seems to be an informal recommendation of barring her is in front of a three person NEC committee for decision by next week. This should be taken as fact until 6.37pm when we will see what the latest is
It does seem to smack somewhat of Johnson clearing out people that he didn't like. It isn't really a good look for Starmer.
By the time of the election it will be last months chip papers.
And at most it will cost 10,000 vots in a constituency with a 33,000 majority and quite possible 0 votes.
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Where's the hypocrisy? That she bought a Council house and hasn't become a Tory? The absolute cheek of it!
Housing Act 1985
121c This section sets out that all purchases of a council house must vote Conservative in perpetuity, especially if they are working class and/or female.
I think you got the wrong section. There is an extension to it that allows for Labour politicians to exploit the sale of two council houses, and unlike normal people they are exempt from the proper scrutiny that ought to be applied by HMRC. It is called Trump's Law and it allows special dispensations for those in positions (or about to be in) of power
The last Labour deputy PM had "Two Jags" as an epithet, which had a slightly better ring than "Two Council Houses" and was slightly less hypocritical.
Got to say you are really (laughingly) struggling to come up with a decent anti-labour attack line.
I don't need an anti-Labour "attack line", as they provide them for themselves in the same way Jas politicians on all sides do. The problem is many people are just too politically tribalist to see it. "My party right or wrong" is clearly your mantra. Why is it some otherwise intelligent people find it necessary to look the other way when someone from the party they support is on obvious dodgy ground? Oh, she is "working class" (people still believe in this archaic shit), so therefore she is something close to saintliness. Be more open minded. Maybe she made a mistake. Maybe she really is very stupid. Labour is going to make her deputy PM because she is "working class". There are going to be lots of lols!.
Everyone on here is tribalist. Neutrals don't spend their time on a political website. At the moment it feels Labour but that's because the the Tory posters hibernate when things look bleak.
When I first posted here it was at least 75% Tory. The only thing that kept it civilized was Mike who was solidly Guardianista /Lib Dem
You don't need to be tribalist if you are interested in politics. Sure, you may have a leaning one way or other, but the tribalist is a different animal. They are "my party right or wrong". It is the closed mindset that has produced so many problems. People should be able to look at politicians that might share some of their views critically. There are people here and across the Atlantic that seem to think their hatred of the other party means that their people can do what they like. It is the mentality that has led to Trump thinking he is above the law. Boris Johnson was also afflicted by this. Let us hope that Starmer does not fall into the same trap.
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Where's the hypocrisy? That she bought a Council house and hasn't become a Tory? The absolute cheek of it!
Housing Act 1985
121c This section sets out that all purchases of a council house must vote Conservative in perpetuity, especially if they are working class and/or female.
I think you got the wrong section. There is an extension to it that allows for Labour politicians to exploit the sale of two council houses, and unlike normal people they are exempt from the proper scrutiny that ought to be applied by HMRC. It is called Trump's Law and it allows special dispensations for those in positions (or about to be in) of power
The last Labour deputy PM had "Two Jags" as an epithet, which had a slightly better ring than "Two Council Houses" and was slightly less hypocritical.
Got to say you are really (laughingly) struggling to come up with a decent anti-labour attack line.
I don't need an anti-Labour "attack line", as they provide them for themselves in the same way Jas politicians on all sides do. The problem is many people are just too politically tribalist to see it. "My party right or wrong" is clearly your mantra. Why is it some otherwise intelligent people find it necessary to look the other way when someone from the party they support is on obvious dodgy ground? Oh, she is "working class" (people still believe in this archaic shit), so therefore she is something close to saintliness. Be more open minded. Maybe she made a mistake. Maybe she really is very stupid. Labour is going to make her deputy PM because she is "working class". There are going to be lots of lols!.
Everyone on here is tribalist. Neutrals don't spend their time on a political website. At the moment it feels Labour but that's because the the Tory posters hibernate when things look bleak.
When I first posted here it was at least 75% Tory. The only thing that kept it civilized was Mike who was solidly Guardianista /Lib Dem
I really don't think everyone on here is tribalist. I'd say the reverse, in fact. Even among some of the active and aspiring politicians. Everyone has views. But relatively few support one team or another. Most, fairly objectively, favour the team who best reflect their views, but this is in no way immutable.
Abbottgate is the new Raynergate, which was the new Currygate.
The PB Tories / PB ‘Lifelong Labour Voters’ never learn do they?
It goes beyond that because it's not just Tories and Corbynites who are talking about it, there are plenty of soft left types who only read a headline and think "aww, she deserves to be treated with more dignity than that". The Guardian have had it as their top story all afternoon, even though there's not actually anything new to report.
I don't think it should move the polls, but there's a reasonable chance that it might - which is why the PB Tories are so keep to amplify it!
The interesting question is whether Labour are content to sit back and let the story play out, or whether they'll try to take some active steps to refocus attention elsewhere. In that way, it's a good test of how rigidly they'll stick to the Ming Vase strategy for the rest of the campaign.
Josiah Mortimer @josiahmortimer Liz Truss tells the right-wing Lotus Eaters 'Tomlinson Talks' show just now: "We need to repeal the Human Rights Act, abolish the Supreme Court, repeal the Equality Act...You need to abolish the OBR"
Chaminda Jayanetti @cjayanetti must admit, I knew Truss was a fucking idiot who'd be a shit prime minister, but I didn't quite expect the Katie Hopkins arc
She kept pretty quiet after her ousing, and I kind of admire that such an epic humiliation did not destroy her. Given things have gone poorly I'd assume she would have focused on trying to say her economic plans were right all along, but she seems to be more interested in culture war stuff instead.
It’s terrifying she was ever in any kind of high office, let alone the highest. Iconically mentalist.
Why does Angela Rayner wind people up here so much when no one gave a shit about Nadhim Zahawi? I know the posters here lean right and are largely reflexively anti-Labour but it really doesn’t speak well of PBers.
Because Angela Rayner is basically the one attack point the anti-Labour posters have had for months.
And being both working class and female they feel superior enough to be able to attack her once they had a vague reason. It stinks of desperation...
Labour might be risking the black vote, the Muslim vote, the *insert here* vote but they'll be fine as long as they hold on to the signed up to online polling panel vote
On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.
Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.
Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?
No, but so far at least Keir has fumbled this. Abbott should be free to stand, indeed hasn’t he implied as much?
This is essentially trivia, save what it tells us about Keir’s judgement (so far, not great).
If Starmer lets Mrs Entitled -Bonkers stand, he really does have poor judgement.
It is confected nonsense by the media, but it has definitely derailed Starmer. Good on the BBC, good on Victoria Derbyshire.
It has “derailed” Starmer.
Whatever you say.
FFS, give it a rest. Your desperation is embarrassing.
Today was Labour's big NHS waiting list launch? How did that get reported. It didn't, so Starmer and Streeting were derailed by Abbott.
The latest version of the Abbott and can she stand seems to be an informal recommendation of barring her is in front of a three person NEC committee for decision by next week. This should be taken as fact until 6.37pm when we will see what the latest is
It does seem to smack somewhat of Johnson clearing out people that he didn't like. It isn't really a good look for Starmer.
By the time of the election it will be last months chip papers.
And at most it will cost 10,000 vots in a constituency with a 33,000 majority and quite possible 0 votes.
You aren't too concerned about whether it is the right thing to do, it's only about the votes?
Labour might be risking the black vote, the Muslim vote, the *insert here* vote but they'll be fine as long as they hold on to the signed up to online polling panel vote
Where would the black / muslim vote go and where does it exist... I suspect losing those votes will just make the Labour vote more efficient and not actually cost them any seats.
The latest version of the Abbott and can she stand seems to be an informal recommendation of barring her is in front of a three person NEC committee for decision by next week. This should be taken as fact until 6.37pm when we will see what the latest is
It does seem to smack somewhat of Johnson clearing out people that he didn't like. It isn't really a good look for Starmer.
He’s very, very lucky that Corbyn is tribally Labour and hasn’t created a party around these folk and attacked his left flank. Many in his position would have.
Corbyn could have taken his period of relative authority in the party after GE17 to clear his party of 'undesirables' like Johnson and now Starmer are doing, but he was very reverent of Labour Party democracy and believed that members should make the choices not the NEC. Starmer should owe a debt of gratitude to Corbyn's willingness to not play factional games.
Labour might be risking the black vote, the Muslim vote, the *insert here* vote but they'll be fine as long as they hold on to the signed up to online polling panel vote
Where would the black / muslim vote go and where does it exist... I suspect losing those votes will just make the Labour vote more efficient and not actually cost them any seats.
It was gentle humour about online polling panels, I don't know how the ethnic vote will stand up
The latest version of the Abbott and can she stand seems to be an informal recommendation of barring her is in front of a three person NEC committee for decision by next week. This should be taken as fact until 6.37pm when we will see what the latest is
It does seem to smack somewhat of Johnson clearing out people that he didn't like. It isn't really a good look for Starmer.
He’s very, very lucky that Corbyn is tribally Labour and hasn’t created a party around these folk and attacked his left flank. Many in his position would have.
I'm astonished that Corbyn hasn't done so. Corbyn is tribally Corbyn. I think he's done and dusted, but having tried the electoral route to power and failed I'd not rule out him trying the insider coup.
He'd have just been this awful lame-duck politician without a few stupid Labour politicians... And that's my point.
Electoral Calculus may be way off course but I reckon there are about a dozen Conservative seats in this list that can be deemed "safe". Even some of the normally safest seats are at risk of falling to the Lib Dems, where Labour isn't a contender.
This doesn't mean the Conservatives will only win 12 seats. There are at least 150 other seats in play with small margins either way. But it does mean a very small further shift to Labour will see the Conservatives all but wiped out. Not sure people have really taken this on board.
Electoral Calculus has the LibDems winning Sheffield Hallam. Which is slightly weird, because the old Sheffield Hallam was Labour. My assumption is that there must be some boundary changes that make it less Labour friendly. *STILL* I would be very surprised to see the LDs gain it.
Why does Angela Rayner wind people up here so much when no one gave a shit about Nadhim Zahawi? I know the posters here lean right and are largely reflexively anti-Labour but it really doesn’t speak well of PBers.
Self-confident working class northern female explains some of it. Don't know about the other 5%, maybe policy or something.
I'm in Lloyd Russell-Moyle's constituency - his suspension won't go down well. I'm not personally a fan, but his profile in his constituency is very impressive; he's always around, highly visible, works his socks off, seems to know everybody and does an awful lot of 'good things' in the community.
I’m down the road in Peter Kyle’s constituency. It was noticeable that LRM wasn’t at the SKS meet n’greet at Preston Park.
There isn't enough time to defend myself as these processes within the party take too long, so the party have told me that I will not be eligible to be a candidate at the next election.
I don’t agree with his view on women’s rights - but this is very shoddy.
Thanks, yes, I'd noticed he wasn't at the Preston Park gig and wondered why. Emails from my local LP have dried up over the last couple of days, which I was also surprised by. Now I know why.
Why does Angela Rayner wind people up here so much when no one gave a shit about Nadhim Zahawi? I know the posters here lean right and are largely reflexively anti-Labour but it really doesn’t speak well of PBers.
Personally I think he is a disgrace. I thought Boris Johnson was a disgrace. I think Angela Rayner is a disgrace. Corbyn was a massive disgrace.
I would like to see honest politicians. There are some out there in most of the parties.
"@patrickkmaguire EXC: Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle has told local activists he has been suspended by the party"
Has any reason been given?
Some allegation that is 8 years old and has conveniently just dropped into the laps of the "lets deselect the loonies" committee.
If they are purging various other hard left members then truly Starmer is all in on changing the party.
I utterly detested the hard left, for so many reasons. But I do not think people should be denied the opportunity to vote for them. Which beggars the question - why is the hard left so disorganised that it hadn't founded a new party?
Galloway formed the Galloway Cult Workers Party , won a seat and has multiple candidates running. Momentum have been around far longer, as has the Peace and Justice Project, with the Owen Jones / Novara / Momentum group all homeless.
So why didn't they act? Too late now - unless they join the Galloway Cult.
Electoral Calculus may be way off course but I reckon there are about a dozen Conservative seats in this list that can be deemed "safe". Even some of the normally safest seats are at risk of falling to the Lib Dems, where Labour isn't a contender.
This doesn't mean the Conservatives will only win 12 seats. There are at least 150 other seats in play with small margins either way. But it does mean a very small further shift to Labour will see the Conservatives all but wiped out. Not sure people have really taken this on board.
Electoral Calculus has the LibDems winning Sheffield Hallam. Which is slightly weird, because the old Sheffield Hallam was Labour. My assumption is that there must be some boundary changes that make it less Labour friendly. *STILL* I would be very surprised to see the LDs gain it.
Sheffield City Council Elections 2024, out of the five wards that make up Sheffield Hallam, Lib Dems won 3, Greens 1 and Labour 1 and in the Green seat Lib Dems came 2nd.
Electoral Calculus may be way off course but I reckon there are about a dozen Conservative seats in this list that can be deemed "safe". Even some of the normally safest seats are at risk of falling to the Lib Dems, where Labour isn't a contender.
This doesn't mean the Conservatives will only win 12 seats. There are at least 150 other seats in play with small margins either way. But it does mean a very small further shift to Labour will see the Conservatives all but wiped out. Not sure people have really taken this on board.
Electoral Calculus has the LibDems winning Sheffield Hallam. Which is slightly weird, because the old Sheffield Hallam was Labour. My assumption is that there must be some boundary changes that make it less Labour friendly. *STILL* I would be very surprised to see the LDs gain it.
If they couldn't win it after the Jared O'Mara debacle they will never win it again is my thought.
Granted it was very close last time and the Tory vote will surely collapse again, but with the national situation in Labour's favour?
Double wicket maiden for Sophie Eccleston. 100 wickets in ODIs. Fastest ever. Is it possible that one day a woman might be chosen for the mens side? Her? Obviously doesn't has the strength to bat competitively but she is a truly wonderful bowler. I would like to see how it went.
Why does Angela Rayner wind people up here so much when no one gave a shit about Nadhim Zahawi? I know the posters here lean right and are largely reflexively anti-Labour but it really doesn’t speak well of PBers.
Personally I think he is a disgrace. I thought Boris Johnson was a disgrace. I think Angela Rayner is a disgrace. Corbyn was a massive disgrace.
I would like to see honest politicians. There are some out there in most of the parties.
His main topic of ire was the US Democrats, but obviously I disagree with him about Ukraine. In the US context, it’s only been recently explained that the vast majority of “Ukraine” spending is actually supporting American jobs in the MIC.
It’s good to listen to people with whom you agree on some things and disagree on others.
I don’t think it’s good to listen to a far right nutjob who pals around with Tommy Robinson, who’s an anti-Semite, a racist, a homophobe, who serially harassed a woman who criticised him, and who promotes conspiracy theories.
But you say you agree with him on some things? What things?
Why does Angela Rayner wind people up here so much when no one gave a shit about Nadhim Zahawi? I know the posters here lean right and are largely reflexively anti-Labour but it really doesn’t speak well of PBers.
Self-confident working class northern female explains some of it. Don't know about the other 5%, maybe policy or something.
Total bollocks. When are people going to move away from this antiquated "working class" bollox? It is an obsession with some, mainly on the left. Move on. I don't like her for the reasons mentioned about two council houses, plus she is very irritating. I couldn't give a shit about her "working class" credentials or what her son does.
Although I'm always pleased to see Cindy Sherman, I can't help but notice that only five of the 38 were British...and one of the Brits was Myra Hindley. Couldn't the Grauniad shoe-in the obvious omission: Margaret Thatcher?
Wasn't the theory from some quarters that if she was ok with HMRC, she must be wrong by electoral laws, and visa versa? Does all look like it will come to nothing though.
Why does Angela Rayner wind people up here so much when no one gave a shit about Nadhim Zahawi? I know the posters here lean right and are largely reflexively anti-Labour but it really doesn’t speak well of PBers.
Because Angela Rayner is basically the one attack point the anti-Labour posters have had for months.
And being both working class and female they feel superior enough to be able to attack her once they had a vague reason. It stinks of desperation...
I have no issue with Angela Rayner's background, upbringing, sex or her (rather good) dancing to 90s Old Skool anthems.
I do have an issue with her politics and her way of personalising politics.
Why does Angela Rayner wind people up here so much when no one gave a shit about Nadhim Zahawi? I know the posters here lean right and are largely reflexively anti-Labour but it really doesn’t speak well of PBers.
Personally I think he is a disgrace. I thought Boris Johnson was a disgrace. I think Angela Rayner is a disgrace. Corbyn was a massive disgrace.
I would like to see honest politicians. There are some out there in most of the parties.
The truly dishonest politicians are those who declare that honesty is the best policy
Why does Angela Rayner wind people up here so much when no one gave a shit about Nadhim Zahawi? I know the posters here lean right and are largely reflexively anti-Labour but it really doesn’t speak well of PBers.
Personally I think he is a disgrace. I thought Boris Johnson was a disgrace. I think Angela Rayner is a disgrace. Corbyn was a massive disgrace.
I would like to see honest politicians. There are some out there in most of the parties.
You are Liz Truss. That is a disgrace.
I forgot about her, and no, last time I looked I wasn't her.
Wasn't the theory from some quarters that if she was ok with HMRC, she must be wrong by electoral laws, and visa versa? Does all look like it will come to nothing though.
Unless she used 2 addresses to vote twice in a general election I can't see how she would break an electoral law.
Why does Angela Rayner wind people up here so much when no one gave a shit about Nadhim Zahawi? I know the posters here lean right and are largely reflexively anti-Labour but it really doesn’t speak well of PBers.
Self-confident working class northern female explains some of it. Don't know about the other 5%, maybe policy or something.
Total bollocks. When are people going to move away from this antiquated "working class" bollox? It is an obsession with some, mainly on the left. Move on. I don't like her for the reasons mentioned about two council houses, plus she is very irritating. I couldn't give a shit about her "working class" credentials or what her son does.
Ok Malky, I'm sure YOUR reasons are all above board. What's the weather doing in Ayrshire right now?
You’d think SKS KC ex-DPP would be all about due process.
SKS wants to be a political dictator. Due process is precisely what he wants it to be.
Since he's going to be Gruppenfuhrer over all of us shortly, let's hope he gets it right.
LRM is in the unfortunate position of being mid case as the election is called - it's not great but it's one of those things and as much Rishi's fault as anyone else..
"@patrickkmaguire EXC: Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle has told local activists he has been suspended by the party"
Has any reason been given?
Some allegation that is 8 years old and has conveniently just dropped into the laps of the "lets deselect the loonies" committee.
If they are purging various other hard left members then truly Starmer is all in on changing the party.
I utterly detested the hard left, for so many reasons. But I do not think people should be denied the opportunity to vote for them. Which beggars the question - why is the hard left so disorganised that it hadn't founded a new party?
Galloway formed the Galloway Cult Workers Party , won a seat and has multiple candidates running. Momentum have been around far longer, as has the Peace and Justice Project, with the Owen Jones / Novara / Momentum group all homeless.
So why didn't they act? Too late now - unless they join the Galloway Cult.
I think the answer is in a scene or two from The Life of Brian.
Dan Neidle posted, at the time, if she had made an error it would be inadvertent due to the complexities of the tax system. His posts on this matter have been very informative.
Double wicket maiden for Sophie Eccleston. 100 wickets in ODIs. Fastest ever. Is it possible that one day a woman might be chosen for the mens side? Her? Obviously doesn't has the strength to bat competitively but she is a truly wonderful bowler. I would like to see how it went.
Edit. Now 101.
As much of the art of batting is just deflecting the momentum that the ball already has I'd guess that the most likely female member of the full England team will be a batter.
"Person is killed after being sucked into KLM passenger plane engine at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport: Investigators say 'too early to rule if it was suicide' as witnesses describe 'hellish noise' after horrifying incident"
Wasn't the theory from some quarters that if she was ok with HMRC, she must be wrong by electoral laws, and visa versa? Does all look like it will come to nothing though.
Unless she used 2 addresses to vote twice in a general election I can't see how she would break an electoral law.
New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19 🔵Conservative 26 (-1) 🔴Labour 45 (+1) 🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-) 🟢Green 5 (-1) 🟣Reform UK 11 (+1) Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008
The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.
Movement within the MoE is not movement (either way), its noise
However virtually all movement does occur within MoE. Something like 99% of all polls move within MoE, even when changes are happening.
A 10 point swing between the parties can still be within MoE.
Need to look at the trend rather than just individual polls to separate out the noise.
And there is, as yet, no trend
Stability is in itself a trend.
Exactly.
The Tories need a trend to occur. There has been no trend.
It's probably reasonable to expect more volatility in voting intentions during an election campaign, which is why 'no trend' over the first week is notable.
Volatility in voting intentions may increase further as the election draws nearer and ordinary people start to pay it more attention. But it won't happen overnight. So the Tories' chance of recovering (say to hung parliament territory) is a product of time left to the election and how much of the gap they've narrowed this far.
Comments
There may be some value in backing the Tories in those seats.
Then again, I have bets on so might just have to take the punches.
Be gentle.
Now it may be that she was/is ill but it does seem to be a long standing issue that the local party wants resolved before the election...
This should be taken as fact until 6.37pm when we will see what the latest is
@josiahmortimer
Liz Truss tells the right-wing Lotus Eaters 'Tomlinson Talks' show just now: "We need to repeal the Human Rights Act, abolish the Supreme Court, repeal the Equality Act...You need to abolish the OBR"
Chaminda Jayanetti
@cjayanetti
must admit, I knew Truss was a fucking idiot who'd be a shit prime minister, but I didn't quite expect the Katie Hopkins arc
It's the clutchest of clutching at straws for an attack point...
I really would expect someone on here to have better arguments and better source material...
When I first posted here it was at least 75% Tory. The only thing that kept it civilized was Mike who was solidly Guardianista /Lib Dem
LRM personal statement:
https://x.com/lloyd_rm/status/1795863977961926933
There isn't enough time to defend myself as these processes within the party take too long, so the party have told me that I will not be eligible to be
a candidate at the next election.
I don’t agree with his view on women’s rights - but this is very shoddy.
Wtf??
Military officers?
And at most it will cost 10,000 vots in a constituency with a 33,000 majority and quite possible 0 votes.
What is the answer? I am not sure.
'https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/may/18/38-images-that-changed-the-way-we-see-women-for-better-and-for-worse-photography
Everyone has views. But relatively few support one team or another. Most, fairly objectively, favour the team who best reflect their views, but this is in no way immutable.
I don't think it should move the polls, but there's a reasonable chance that it might - which is why the PB Tories are so keep to amplify it!
The interesting question is whether Labour are content to sit back and let the story play out, or whether they'll try to take some active steps to refocus attention elsewhere. In that way, it's a good test of how rigidly they'll stick to the Ming Vase strategy for the rest of the campaign.
And being both working class and female they feel superior enough to be able to attack her once they had a vague reason. It stinks of desperation...
You really are Anabobazina nice, but dim.
No wonder you like it.
You are HYUFD and I claim my £5
seems to be the rule
Exclusive: Document seen by the Guardian says ‘no capital gains tax is due’ from Labour deputy leader and that case is now closed
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/29/angela-rayner-labour-cleared-hmrc-tax-sale-former-home
He'd have just been this awful lame-duck politician without a few stupid Labour politicians... And that's my point.
You’d think SKS KC ex-DPP would be all about due process.
I would like to see honest politicians. There are some out there in most of the parties.
If they are purging various other hard left members then truly Starmer is all in on changing the party.
I utterly detested the hard left, for so many reasons. But I do not think people should be denied the opportunity to vote for them. Which beggars the question - why is the hard left so disorganised that it hadn't founded a new party?
Galloway formed the
Galloway CultWorkers Party , won a seat and has multiple candidates running. Momentum have been around far longer, as has the Peace and Justice Project, with the Owen Jones / Novara / Momentum group all homeless.So why didn't they act? Too late now - unless they join the Galloway Cult.
You just know it. The moralising. The hypocrisy. The guilt. The double-standards.
The GUARDIAN readers.
Granted it was very close last time and the Tory vote will surely collapse again, but with the national situation in Labour's favour?
Is it possible that one day a woman might be chosen for the mens side? Her? Obviously doesn't has the strength to bat competitively but she is a truly wonderful bowler. I would like to see how it went.
Edit. Now 101.
Since he's going to be Gruppenfuhrer over all of us shortly, let's hope he gets it right.
But you say you agree with him on some things? What things?
Yes - she got away with not breaking the law or avoiding taxes. What a monster!
I do have an issue with her politics and her way of personalising politics.
The only problem here is the timing, because it is impossible to investigate quickly enough for RLM to be selected as candidate...
What's the weather doing in Ayrshire right now?
"Person is killed after being sucked into KLM passenger plane engine at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport: Investigators say 'too early to rule if it was suicide' as witnesses describe 'hellish noise' after horrifying incident"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13472661/Person-killed-falling-KLM-passenger-plane-engine-Schiphol-Airport.html
The Tories need a trend to occur. There has been no trend.
It's probably reasonable to expect more volatility in voting intentions during an election campaign, which is why 'no trend' over the first week is notable.
Volatility in voting intentions may increase further as the election draws nearer and ordinary people start to pay it more attention. But it won't happen overnight. So the Tories' chance of recovering (say to hung parliament territory) is a product of time left to the election and how much of the gap they've narrowed this far.