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One week on and betting markets remain utterly convinced about Starmer winning a majority

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 8 in General
imageOne week on and betting markets remain utterly convinced about Starmer winning a majority
Graphic – Betfair over the last week on the overral majority market
Read the full story here
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  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    First like Labour, of course.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    Second - quite possibly like the Lib Dems.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,041
    Hard to see how Starmer doesn't win a majority, main question is its size. Even if somehow the Tories prevented Labour winning a majority in England, Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland and the Labour majority in Wales would give Labour most seats UK wide
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    Betting markets don't get everything right. But most paths to them being wrong here rely on a lot of things going wrong for Labour.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,670
    The polls haven't moved yet. They might not at all.

    I think they could move towards the Tories and we see a smaller Labour majority. I think it's just as likely they move away from the Tories, however.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795825530454900760?s=19

    Fpt. Everyone wants more for the wrinklies
    Expect more announcements for the grey vote
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Well nothing has happened to change the structure of the campaign so unsurprising that Labour still looks good for a majority.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    Trump jury is getting their instructions from the judge - on reasonable doubt, no negative inference from defendant not testifying etc - I have to admit this one is not one I had considered, but I suppose everyone does draw inferences so you need to give some guidance.

    Merchan just gave jurors the boilerplate instruction — given in many state and federal courts — about their power to draw inferences. The classic example: If you go to bed and the ground outside is dry, and you wake up and the ground outside is wet, you can infer that it rained overnight.

    Prosceutors have asked the jury to draw some inferences about Trump's micromanaging nature to conclude that he certainly would have been aware of the specifics of Michael Cohen's efforts to pay off Stormy Daniels.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    edited May 29
    No surprise really. Not much has changed.
    But I think this is one where folk made up their minds quite some time ago. The quote from Callaghan is relevant.
    The only real questions how many ex-Tory don't knows will actually vote, and in what proportion they vote Conservative. And how much will Reform and Greens get squeezed.
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    The Abbott thing has the potential to be quite difficult if it spills over into party factionalism over Palestine.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795825530454900760?s=19

    Fpt. Everyone wants more for the wrinklies
    Expect more announcements for the grey vote

    Not really - everyone will know a pensioner or 2 who is on the basic state pension and not much more. We want those people to have more.

    The pensioners who go on 5 cruises a year on the other hand....
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    ToryJim said:

    Well nothing has happened to change the structure of the campaign so unsurprising that Labour still looks good for a majority.

    The polling says it so the betting follows
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    Taz said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Taz said:

    ...

    Starmer needs to take the “loss” and let Abbott stand (even if she then goes on to retire not long after the election).

    Sir FlipFlop?

    Starmer has had a shocking day. I am listening to LBC on a work trip to Crediton and back. There has been a lot of critical scrutiny of Starmer, Reeves, Streeting and Labour and absolutely no scrutiny on Sunak's Mickey Mouse degrees bollocks. Oh and an entire morning on Abbott.

    If this goes on for five and a half weeks Labour will be lucky to have 100 MPs.
    "CON GAIN - BOOTLE"
    Hasn't got a Conservative candidate yet - surely one for Casino_Royale to throw their hat into the ring for.
    Maybe that is why Iain Dale has left LBC. To fight Bootle.
    Not quite as winnable a seat as Tunbridge Wells perhaps.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    kle4 said:

    Trump jury is getting their instructions from the judge - on reasonable doubt, no negative inference from defendant not testifying etc - I have to admit this one is not one I had considered, but I suppose everyone does draw inferences so you need to give some guidance.

    Merchan just gave jurors the boilerplate instruction — given in many state and federal courts — about their power to draw inferences. The classic example: If you go to bed and the ground outside is dry, and you wake up and the ground outside is wet, you can infer that it rained overnight.

    Prosceutors have asked the jury to draw some inferences about Trump's micromanaging nature to conclude that he certainly would have been aware of the specifics of Michael Cohen's efforts to pay off Stormy Daniels.

    That great legal tradition of I reckon
    They could also of course infer that as Cohen is a convicted liar that he cannot be trusted, its double edged
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354
    megasaur said:

    The Abbott thing has the potential to be quite difficult if it spills over into party factionalism over Palestine.

    I just struggle to see that as likely. The core of the party and its voter base is sick and tired of losing, are they really going to implode because the person most likely to be the next PM is a bit rough with factional opponents and they don't like what is going on in Palestine? Or will even most of his internal opponents be willing to keep shtum for 5 weeks?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    dixiedean said:

    No surprise really. Not much has changed.
    But I think this is one where folk made up their minds quite some time ago. The quote from Callaghan is relevant.
    The only real questions how many ex-Tory don't knows will actually vote, and in what proportion they vote Conservative. And how much will Reform and Greens get squeezed.

    But your typical Reform voter voted Brexit in 2019 - I suspect there is no where near as many Reform votes to squeeze as some on here believe...
  • Options
    DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 276
    Leon said:

    Jesus tittyfucking Christ on a crouton what am I going to do in Moldova for EIGHT DAYS

    (FPT) Have you ever been to the gypsy palaces in Soroca? The biggest one is crazy - larger than a "real" palace.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    HYUFD said:

    Hard to see how Starmer doesn't win a majority, main question is its size. Even if somehow the Tories prevented Labour winning a majority in England, Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland and the Labour majority in Wales would give Labour most seats UK wide

    All true. The days when we were pondering whether Labour could deny the Tories a further majority seem and awful long time ago, but it was less than 2 years
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    eek said:

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795825530454900760?s=19

    Fpt. Everyone wants more for the wrinklies
    Expect more announcements for the grey vote

    Not really - everyone will know a pensioner or 2 who is on the basic state pension and not much more. We want those people to have more.

    The pensioners who go on 5 cruises a year on the other hand....
    OK, expect more announcements for pensioners who aren't on cruises all year
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,354

    kle4 said:

    Trump jury is getting their instructions from the judge - on reasonable doubt, no negative inference from defendant not testifying etc - I have to admit this one is not one I had considered, but I suppose everyone does draw inferences so you need to give some guidance.

    Merchan just gave jurors the boilerplate instruction — given in many state and federal courts — about their power to draw inferences. The classic example: If you go to bed and the ground outside is dry, and you wake up and the ground outside is wet, you can infer that it rained overnight.

    Prosceutors have asked the jury to draw some inferences about Trump's micromanaging nature to conclude that he certainly would have been aware of the specifics of Michael Cohen's efforts to pay off Stormy Daniels.

    That great legal tradition of I reckon
    They could also of course infer that as Cohen is a convicted liar that he cannot be trusted, its double edged
    That's why they spent 4 weeks corroborating almost everything he said with other witnesses, and even to prove he had phone calls when he said he did, so the case is not reliant on believing him.

    Still a few parts of which he is the only witness (as the other person was the Trump CFO who has already gone to prison twice without flipping on Donald) though, so it is the main focus of the defense case for reasonable doubt.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286
    HYUFD said:

    Hard to see how Starmer doesn't win a majority, main question is its size. Even if somehow the Tories prevented Labour winning a majority in England, Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland and the Labour majority in Wales would give Labour most seats UK wide

    The question is how many voters want Starmer to win but don't want him to have an enormous majority. Perhaps only political nerds think in those terms.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,238
    edited May 29
    The 1.pm News was wall to wall Starmer's misstep/duplicity/arrogance over Abbott. Unlikely to move the dial but you'd have to have a heart of stone not to be moved.

    She seems genuinely bewildered and upset. I don't feel Starmer is a particularly straight dealer.

    With Blair in '97 you felt instinctively he'd do the right thing. With Starmer I have no such feeling.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,863

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951
    eek said:

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1795825530454900760?s=19

    Fpt. Everyone wants more for the wrinklies
    Expect more announcements for the grey vote

    Not really - everyone will know a pensioner or 2 who is on the basic state pension and not much more. We want those people to have more.

    The pensioners who go on 5 cruises a year on the other hand....
    And yet HMG going on for decades about pay x NI = get y SP has had its effect.

    If I were Big Pension plc who had marketed a guaranteed index linked pension [not even triple lock] and wrote to a customer of 40 years saying that we were cutting the pension by 20% just because we felt like it they'd have us in court.

    HMG is seen as proposing to do that (because of the NI cut).

    That's exactly the thinking the vast majority of the public have about the SP, for themselves and for granny.

    Doesn't matter if they have other pensions - they've been made to pay NI. At a higher rate for higher incomes, too. And have to pay tax on the whole income at present.

    (You know, and I know, but that's the way it looks. Which means alot in politics.)
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286
    megasaur said:

    The Abbott thing has the potential to be quite difficult if it spills over into party factionalism over Palestine.

    Surely she'll be a candidate, whatever happens.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    megasaur said:

    The Abbott thing has the potential to be quite difficult if it spills over into party factionalism over Palestine.

    The Abbott spat has the potential to knock maybe as much as 2% off the Labour vote over the nation but that loss will be concentrated in some safe Labour seats so not cost Labour a single seat. For this election Starmer won't care about Hackney North and Stoke Newington having a 20,000 majority instead of 36,000. The question is will Starmer care to woo back the angry left after the election because he might need them next time.

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    Good afternoon

    Just caught up with the headlines dominanted by Diane Abbott and for the first time I can say Starmer looked very shifty in his response
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hard to see how Starmer doesn't win a majority, main question is its size. Even if somehow the Tories prevented Labour winning a majority in England, Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland and the Labour majority in Wales would give Labour most seats UK wide

    The question is how many voters want Starmer to win but don't want him to have an enormous majority. Perhaps only political nerds think in those terms.
    On which point.
    I notice the Tory media and Party have gone quiet on the "Labour needs a 13% lead to win a majority".
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136

    Leon said:

    Jesus tittyfucking Christ on a crouton what am I going to do in Moldova for EIGHT DAYS

    (FPT) Have you ever been to the gypsy palaces in Soroca? The biggest one is crazy - larger than a "real" palace.
    I haven’t. Thank you! All ideas welcome

    Modzimirsk
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    edited May 29
    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    That's another one Harry Cole forgot to ramp
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    I take it that choice isn't a year in the Army or unpaid weekend work.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
    In fact many will probably go nowhere come polling day - at least not to a polling station.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    That's another one Harry Cole forgot to ramp
    Aside from the YouGov everything is just noise movement at the moment, yougov is pushing the limits of MoE
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    edited May 29

    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
    In fact many will probably go nowhere come polling day - at least not to a polling station.
    Nonsense. They are those that respond 'highly likely to votes but are undecided even after a second bite.
    They are no more likely to stay home than the DKs discarded by YouGov or Redfield etc
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    megasaur said:

    The Abbott thing has the potential to be quite difficult if it spills over into party factionalism over Palestine.

    My guess is that it will leave more of a post-election party management issue than something during the election itself.

    Labour are usually pretty disciplined and have their eye on the prize now. This stuff can wait.

    As others have noted, the salience of Palestine as an issue is spiky - it’s either really important (for different reasons, to different groups), or pretty irrelevant (to, I suspect, most people).
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,704

    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
    You're right in so far as they could go to bed, or go and sit on the sofa, or go into the garden, or go and do some shopping etc etc. I hope you weren't saying that they would no doubt go and vote, because I think there's a great deal of doubt about that and I'd have to disagree with you.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863

    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
    Why? I suspect a DK/DK ends up sitting the election out - remember not everyone will vote we aren't Australia.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,210

    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
    You're right in so far as they could go to bed, or go and sit on the sofa, or go into the garden, or go and do some shopping etc etc. I hope you weren't saying that they would no doubt go and vote, because I think there's a great deal of doubt about that and I'd have to disagree with you.
    I haven't looked at the tables, but aren't these sort of things filtered by likelihood to vote? So you could have someone who said don't know twice, but also say they are very likely to vote.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119

    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
    You're right in so far as they could go to bed, or go and sit on the sofa, or go into the garden, or go and do some shopping etc etc. I hope you weren't saying that they would no doubt go and vote, because I think there's a great deal of doubt about that and I'd have to disagree with you.
    Well they are no different to the Don't knows in any poll (aside from those polls that assign them by past vote). Of course some may not bother but some will vote and thus will go 'somewhere'
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203

    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
    You're right in so far as they could go to bed, or go and sit on the sofa, or go into the garden, or go and do some shopping etc etc. I hope you weren't saying that they would no doubt go and vote, because I think there's a great deal of doubt about that and I'd have to disagree with you.
    They might go to the polling station, take a photo of their dog, and then go back home again to upload it to X.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    Barring a major gaffe or huge policy statement, the movers will be tv debates and manifestos.

    Abbott etc is political nerd stuff and doesn’t really cut through imo. The baseline tone has been set.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124
    edited May 29
    kle4 said:

    Trump jury is getting their instructions from the judge - on reasonable doubt, no negative inference from defendant not testifying etc - I have to admit this one is not one I had considered, but I suppose everyone does draw inferences so you need to give some guidance.

    Merchan just gave jurors the boilerplate instruction — given in many state and federal courts — about their power to draw inferences. The classic example: If you go to bed and the ground outside is dry, and you wake up and the ground outside is wet, you can infer that it rained overnight.

    Prosceutors have asked the jury to draw some inferences about Trump's micromanaging nature to conclude that he certainly would have been aware of the specifics of Michael Cohen's efforts to pay off Stormy Daniels.

    In English law a judge can invite the jury if it wishes to draw inferences from the failure of the defendant to give evidence. And in recent years they can be told they can draw inferences from failure to answer (fully or at all) police questions.
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,423

    Good afternoon

    Just caught up with the headlines dominanted by Diane Abbott and for the first time I can say Starmer looked very shifty in his response

    If the Tories really want a Trump-style moniker for Starmer, "Shifty Starmer" is a hell of lot better than "Sleepy Starmer".
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119
    eek said:

    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
    Why? I suspect a DK/DK ends up sitting the election out - remember not everyone will vote we aren't Australia.
    Some people decide late on. That's hardly an earth shattering concept. The DK/DKs with MiC have answered 'very likely to vote', so one should assume a lot of them will vote
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    This is some job change

    Vincent Kompany goes from relegated Burnley to Bayern Munich head coach
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,159
    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    Still to come: in-fighting over who should be blamed for the state of the campaign, leading into a wider punch-up as the next leadership contest starts in earnest....
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    carnforth said:

    Good afternoon

    Just caught up with the headlines dominanted by Diane Abbott and for the first time I can say Starmer looked very shifty in his response

    If the Tories really want a Trump-style moniker for Starmer, "Shifty Starmer" is a hell of lot better than "Sleepy Starmer".
    I have not seen that side of him before today
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,529
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus tittyfucking Christ on a crouton what am I going to do in Moldova for EIGHT DAYS

    (FPT) Have you ever been to the gypsy palaces in Soroca? The biggest one is crazy - larger than a "real" palace.
    I haven’t. Thank you! All ideas welcome

    Modzimirsk
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mileștii_Mici_(winery) Once you go in....
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    Ghedebrav said:

    Barring a major gaffe or huge policy statement, the movers will be tv debates and manifestos.

    Abbott etc is political nerd stuff and doesn’t really cut through imo. The baseline tone has been set.

    First one is 9.00pm Tuesday 4th June on ITV
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203
    Diane Abbott anecdote:

    Wor Lass once spotted Ms Abbott in the cafe at John Lewis in Sloane Square, and went over to say hello to her. The response was anything but warm and friendly.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hard to see how Starmer doesn't win a majority, main question is its size. Even if somehow the Tories prevented Labour winning a majority in England, Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland and the Labour majority in Wales would give Labour most seats UK wide

    The question is how many voters want Starmer to win but don't want him to have an enormous majority. Perhaps only political nerds think in those terms.
    I suspect that Starmer would prefer a 400 member PLP to a 500 one, imagine what undervetted clunkers are standing in Broxbourne, Leicestershire South, Tunbridge Wells (apologies if you are the Labour candidate for any of those fine constituencies). Though it is better to aim for 500 and get 400 than aim for 400 and get 340.

  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hard to see how Starmer doesn't win a majority, main question is its size. Even if somehow the Tories prevented Labour winning a majority in England, Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland and the Labour majority in Wales would give Labour most seats UK wide

    The question is how many voters want Starmer to win but don't want him to have an enormous majority. Perhaps only political nerds think in those terms.
    On which point.
    I notice the Tory media and Party have gone quiet on the "Labour needs a 13% lead to win a majority".
    Yes. That thought would make a few million former Tory voters vote Labour twice just to make sure.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,863

    Ghedebrav said:

    Barring a major gaffe or huge policy statement, the movers will be tv debates and manifestos.

    Abbott etc is political nerd stuff and doesn’t really cut through imo. The baseline tone has been set.

    First one is 9.00pm Tuesday 4th June on ITV
    And there won't be many because SKS doesn't see the point...
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,853

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982

    This is some job change

    Vincent Kompany goes from relegated Burnley to Bayern Munich head coach

    Good for him, he's a very fine manager and I don't think Guardiola would have kept Burnley up.

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    eek said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Barring a major gaffe or huge policy statement, the movers will be tv debates and manifestos.

    Abbott etc is political nerd stuff and doesn’t really cut through imo. The baseline tone has been set.

    First one is 9.00pm Tuesday 4th June on ITV
    And there won't be many because SKS doesn't see the point...
    BBC and Sky apparently
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
    In fact many will probably go nowhere come polling day - at least not to a polling station.
    Nonsense. They are those that respond 'highly likely to votes but are undecided even after a second bite.
    They are no more likely to stay home than the DKs discarded by YouGov or Redfield etc
    In the MiC tables 12% say they will not vote and 16% say 'Don't know'. Unless you are expecting an 88% turnout, I'd hazard a guess that most of those DKs won't vote on polling day.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295
    megasaur said:

    The Abbott thing has the potential to be quite difficult if it spills over into party factionalism over Palestine.

    She has been a fairly consistent and disloyal critic of SKS for years so I can see why he wants her outside the tent pissing herself.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    Amazing

    Just had a text from my daughter in law on route to Vancouver saying they have a medical emergency on board ( between Scotland and Iceland) and not sure if they will have to divert

    I didn't know you could what's app from an in flight aircraft
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.
    Movement within the MoE is not movement (either way), its noise
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,365
    After the fall of communism, a friend of mine discovered he was a minor celebrity in Romania. He'd written a book in French about some New Age nonsense which had sold a handful of copies. But the samizdat publishers had translated it into Romanian, it being easier to translate from other Romance languages. And for some reason it was very popular in Romania so lots of copies were distributed.

    He had no idea about this until he got an invitation to visit Romania in 1990.

    It's not Moldova, but it's the closest I've got.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203
    HYUFD said:

    Hard to see how Starmer doesn't win a majority, main question is its size. Even if somehow the Tories prevented Labour winning a majority in England, Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland and the Labour majority in Wales would give Labour most seats UK wide

    Even in the unlikely event of the Tories getting most seats (say 300), the other parties would line up to boot Sunak out of Downing Street.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,042
    On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

    Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

    Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,997
    DM_Andy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hard to see how Starmer doesn't win a majority, main question is its size. Even if somehow the Tories prevented Labour winning a majority in England, Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland and the Labour majority in Wales would give Labour most seats UK wide

    The question is how many voters want Starmer to win but don't want him to have an enormous majority. Perhaps only political nerds think in those terms.
    I suspect that Starmer would prefer a 400 member PLP to a 500 one, imagine what undervetted clunkers are standing in Broxbourne, Leicestershire South, Tunbridge Wells (apologies if you are the Labour candidate for any of those fine constituencies). Though it is better to aim for 500 and get 400 than aim for 400 and get 340.

    I think his best majority would be between 80 and 100

    Anything more could be difficult to control as witnessed in the conservative party’s factions
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,665

    On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

    Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

    Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

    We are all PB Tories now, comrade!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

    Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

    Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

    No
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    Pat Cullen:

    "After much consideration, I have decided that now is the right time for me to step forward in to the political arena to champion the issues and opportunities for the community I love..."

    Does she know?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559

    Amazing

    Just had a text from my daughter in law on route to Vancouver saying they have a medical emergency on board ( between Scotland and Iceland) and not sure if they will have to divert

    I didn't know you could what's app from an in flight aircraft

    Satellite provided internet (presented as WiFi) on many airlines now.

    Mostly Starlink (SpaceX)
  • Options
    JamarionJamarion Posts: 49
    edited May 29
    carnforth said:

    Good afternoon

    Just caught up with the headlines dominanted by Diane Abbott and for the first time I can say Starmer looked very shifty in his response

    If the Tories really want a Trump-style moniker for Starmer, "Shifty Starmer" is a hell of lot better than "Sleepy Starmer".
    How to polarise against an opponent who's deploying a Ming vase strategy, i.e. resisting polarisation:

    1. Adopt some polarising policies, e.g. national service [*];

    2. When you can't do 1, abuse your opponent by calling him nasty names. If you call somebody Shitpants the Four-Eyed Jimmy Savile-Helping Wanker, he's unlikely to say he can see your point of view, but just excuse him for a moment, because he's carrying this fragile vase over this pile of rocks and needs everything to be quiet and serene.

    *And perhaps capital punishment. To would-be Reform voters, possible Tory stay-at-homes, and certain other segments, always call it hanging.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,836

    On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

    Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

    Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

    By what mechanism? How would that work? I can't see it.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073

    On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

    Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

    Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

    Does Starmer have a race problem? He wants to get rid of the first black woman MP and the first PM of Indian heritage.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,008

    On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

    Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

    Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

    No, but so far at least Keir has fumbled this.
    Abbott should be free to stand, indeed hasn’t he implied as much?

    This is essentially trivia, save what it tells us about Keir’s judgement (so far, not great).
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    I don't think 89% is is "utterly convinced". Remain was an 85% chance on the eve of counting. And Trump in 2016 probably wasn't that different.

    A Labour win remains the overwhelming favorite, but 1-in-10 shots win all the time. (About one in every eleven times or so.)
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,069

    On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

    Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

    Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

    No, but so far at least Keir has fumbled this.
    Abbott should be free to stand, indeed hasn’t he implied as much?

    This is essentially trivia, save what it tells us about Keir’s judgement (so far, not great).
    This morning I felt that he'd played a bit of a blinder. He signalled that he didn't want her, yet allowed her to stand, satisfying all parties. I've been very busy so I concede that the story may not have developed to his advantage.
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    Amazing

    Just had a text from my daughter in law on route to Vancouver saying they have a medical emergency on board ( between Scotland and Iceland) and not sure if they will have to divert

    I didn't know you could what's app from an in flight aircraft

    Tends to be that messaging apps are free, full fat internet is pricey
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119

    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
    In fact many will probably go nowhere come polling day - at least not to a polling station.
    Nonsense. They are those that respond 'highly likely to votes but are undecided even after a second bite.
    They are no more likely to stay home than the DKs discarded by YouGov or Redfield etc
    In the MiC tables 12% say they will not vote and 16% say 'Don't know'. Unless you are expecting an 88% turnout, I'd hazard a guess that most of those DKs won't vote on polling day.
    I'd say they are as likely to vote as someone who has picked a horse. Some people do not decide until late on. The high 'certainty' factor makes those that name a party just as likely to be eventually non voters as the overall 'certainty' is way above expectations (as it always is in polling)
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,704

    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
    You're right in so far as they could go to bed, or go and sit on the sofa, or go into the garden, or go and do some shopping etc etc. I hope you weren't saying that they would no doubt go and vote, because I think there's a great deal of doubt about that and I'd have to disagree with you.
    Well they are no different to the Don't knows in any poll (aside from those polls that assign them by past vote). Of course some may not bother but some will vote and thus will go 'somewhere'
    That's more like it. Some will vote, some won't. Your "will no doubt go 'somewhere' " implied that pretty well all would.

    I think that turnout will be around 65%, a tad below the level in 2019, and way below the 90% of More in Common respondents who say that they'll vote.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,423

    carnforth said:

    Good afternoon

    Just caught up with the headlines dominanted by Diane Abbott and for the first time I can say Starmer looked very shifty in his response

    If the Tories really want a Trump-style moniker for Starmer, "Shifty Starmer" is a hell of lot better than "Sleepy Starmer".
    I have not seen that side of him before today
    The Left of the Labour party have (thankfully for the rest of us).
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    kamski said:

    After the fall of communism, a friend of mine discovered he was a minor celebrity in Romania. He'd written a book in French about some New Age nonsense which had sold a handful of copies. But the samizdat publishers had translated it into Romanian, it being easier to translate from other Romance languages. And for some reason it was very popular in Romania so lots of copies were distributed.

    He had no idea about this until he got an invitation to visit Romania in 1990.

    It's not Moldova, but it's the closest I've got.

    Sounds a bit like Sixto Rodriguez, released a couple of albums in Detroit in the early 1970s, wasn't a success and drifted out of the business only to find out in 1997 that he had sold loads in South Africa and was a bona fide star. The documentary "Searching for Sugar Man" about his story is well worth the watch.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877
    DM_Andy said:

    kamski said:

    After the fall of communism, a friend of mine discovered he was a minor celebrity in Romania. He'd written a book in French about some New Age nonsense which had sold a handful of copies. But the samizdat publishers had translated it into Romanian, it being easier to translate from other Romance languages. And for some reason it was very popular in Romania so lots of copies were distributed.

    He had no idea about this until he got an invitation to visit Romania in 1990.

    It's not Moldova, but it's the closest I've got.

    Sounds a bit like Sixto Rodriguez, released a couple of albums in Detroit in the early 1970s, wasn't a success and drifted out of the business only to find out in 1997 that he had sold loads in South Africa and was a bona fide star. The documentary "Searching for Sugar Man" about his story is well worth the watch.
    Excellent documentary
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,042
    ...

    On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

    Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

    Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

    Does Starmer have a race problem? He wants to get rid of the first black woman MP and the first PM of Indian heritage.
    Mish would agree with you on both counts.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    eek said:
    Reverse Truss! One to watch for the Lib Dem leadership in a few years, after which there will be no more Lib Dems :hushed:
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,844

    On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

    Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

    Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

    No, but so far at least Keir has fumbled this.
    Abbott should be free to stand, indeed hasn’t he implied as much?

    This is essentially trivia, save what it tells us about Keir’s judgement (so far, not great).
    I mean like all PB old white blokes I like Abbott. And not just for comedy value.

    But surely it is up to the leader of the party to determine who he does or does not want representing the party. That said, his big error is not to say he does or he doesn't. He seems incapable of making a decision. I mean this is perfectly understandable in a GE run-up don't frighten the horses kind of way but is simply not sustainable in the longer term (and by that I mean pre-July 4th longer term).
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,993

    I regret some of my life choices.

    Yesterday I decided to Google 'Willie Rennie pig sex' and today I am getting some very niche adverts.

    I also regret turning sync on all devices when it comes to Chrome.

    Go incognito you daft sod.

    Could be worse. You could have gone full SNP, googled it on a work iPad and then billed the taxpayer for the very niche streaming service that followed...
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,365
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't think 89% is is "utterly convinced". Remain was an 85% chance on the eve of counting. And Trump in 2016 probably wasn't that different.

    A Labour win remains the overwhelming favorite, but 1-in-10 shots win all the time. (About one in every eleven times or so.)

    True, though in this case the 1 in 10 shot is "no overall majority" which would probably still mean a Labour-led government.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,853

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.
    Movement within the MoE is not movement (either way), its noise
    And when all the noise is in sync?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,042

    On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

    Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

    Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

    No, but so far at least Keir has fumbled this.
    Abbott should be free to stand, indeed hasn’t he implied as much?

    This is essentially trivia, save what it tells us about Keir’s judgement (so far, not great).
    If Starmer lets Mrs Entitled -Bonkers stand, he really does have poor judgement.

    It is confected nonsense by the media, but it has definitely derailed Starmer. Good on the BBC, good on Victoria Derbyshire.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119

    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
    You're right in so far as they could go to bed, or go and sit on the sofa, or go into the garden, or go and do some shopping etc etc. I hope you weren't saying that they would no doubt go and vote, because I think there's a great deal of doubt about that and I'd have to disagree with you.
    Well they are no different to the Don't knows in any poll (aside from those polls that assign them by past vote). Of course some may not bother but some will vote and thus will go 'somewhere'
    That's more like it. Some will vote, some won't. Your "will no doubt go 'somewhere' " implied that pretty well all would.

    I think that turnout will be around 65%, a tad below the level in 2019, and way below the 90% of More in Common respondents who say that they'll vote.
    I'll try and be clearer next time for sure. Some of the horse pickers won"t be voting either for the reason you state above, as is true with most polls. People are more certain to vote in a survey than many of them are in actuality. The effect on July 4 remains to be seen
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    carnforth said:

    Good afternoon

    Just caught up with the headlines dominanted by Diane Abbott and for the first time I can say Starmer looked very shifty in his response

    If the Tories really want a Trump-style moniker for Starmer, "Shifty Starmer" is a hell of lot better than "Sleepy Starmer".
    Keir Hardly
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967

    eek said:

    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
    Why? I suspect a DK/DK ends up sitting the election out - remember not everyone will vote we aren't Australia.
    Some people decide late on. That's hardly an earth shattering concept. The DK/DKs with MiC have answered 'very likely to vote', so one should assume a lot of them will vote
    No, the MiC 19% Labour lead is after 'Would not vote' removed, adding 'Don't know' respondents who gave party vote choice upon prompting' So the only people excluded are those who said they would not vote, even after a second prompt.
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,503

    On LBC, former Theresa May SPAD Tom Swarbrick, is very perplexed by Labour's stance on Diane Abbott. NEC's Mish Ramen calls the entitled white Starmer Labour leadership racist because of the Party's treatment of PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott.

    Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.

    Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?

    Not sure Mish has a leg to stand on there given his views on antisemitism. He opposed the EHRC report's findings.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.
    Movement within the MoE is not movement (either way), its noise
    And when all the noise is in sync?
    It isn't. Unless the next polls confirm the trend. A one or 2 point change is utterly irrelevant and would almost certainly happen on 4 polls taken on the same day by the same pollster.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,844
    89% is high but I continue to wonder why we on PB, who fight like cats in a sack about every nuance of possible political outcome, take "the betting markets" as somehow better informed.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,216
    ABBOTT
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,216

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.
    It’s all just tiny MOE stuff.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,119

    eek said:

    eek said:

    New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May
    Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
    🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
    🔴Labour 45 (+1)
    🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
    🟢Green 5 (-1)
    🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
    Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008

    More in Common force Don't knows to make a choice - this is not good for those who believe in tory swingback...
    They force a choice but leave 'DK' as an option again, meaning this is a sort of hybrid between nowcast and forecast type polls. The DK/DK are discarded, but will no doubt go 'somewhere' come polling day
    Why? I suspect a DK/DK ends up sitting the election out - remember not everyone will vote we aren't Australia.
    Some people decide late on. That's hardly an earth shattering concept. The DK/DKs with MiC have answered 'very likely to vote', so one should assume a lot of them will vote
    No, the MiC 19% Labour lead is after 'Would not vote' removed, adding 'Don't know' respondents who gave party vote choice upon prompting' So the only people excluded are those who said they would not vote, even after a second prompt.
    Don't know is also a choice on the second prompt too, to catch genuine undecided who are then discounted from the poll result.
    From their methodology
    Note: we will still keep a ‘don’t know’ option available at this second stage. ‘Don’t know’ is a valid response when asking people how they intend to vote far from an election, and we want to avoid assigning people a party vote choice which wouldn’t represent them. We believe that prompting these respondents again to choose - but not forcing them - strikes the best balance.
    If this has now been changed fair enough but I've seen nothing saying it has
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