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One week on and betting markets remain utterly convinced about Starmer winning a majority
One week on and betting markets remain utterly convinced about Starmer winning a majorityGraphic – Betfair over the last week on the overral majority market
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I think they could move towards the Tories and we see a smaller Labour majority. I think it's just as likely they move away from the Tories, however.
Fpt. Everyone wants more for the wrinklies
Expect more announcements for the grey vote
Merchan just gave jurors the boilerplate instruction — given in many state and federal courts — about their power to draw inferences. The classic example: If you go to bed and the ground outside is dry, and you wake up and the ground outside is wet, you can infer that it rained overnight.
Prosceutors have asked the jury to draw some inferences about Trump's micromanaging nature to conclude that he certainly would have been aware of the specifics of Michael Cohen's efforts to pay off Stormy Daniels.
But I think this is one where folk made up their minds quite some time ago. The quote from Callaghan is relevant.
The only real questions how many ex-Tory don't knows will actually vote, and in what proportion they vote Conservative. And how much will Reform and Greens get squeezed.
The pensioners who go on 5 cruises a year on the other hand....
They could also of course infer that as Cohen is a convicted liar that he cannot be trusted, its double edged
Still a few parts of which he is the only witness (as the other person was the Trump CFO who has already gone to prison twice without flipping on Donald) though, so it is the main focus of the defense case for reasonable doubt.
Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19
🔵Conservative 26 (-1)
🔴Labour 45 (+1)
🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-)
🟢Green 5 (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11 (+1)
Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008
She seems genuinely bewildered and upset. I don't feel Starmer is a particularly straight dealer.
With Blair in '97 you felt instinctively he'd do the right thing. With Starmer I have no such feeling.
Yesterday I decided to Google 'Willie Rennie pig sex' and today I am getting some very niche adverts.
I also regret turning sync on all devices when it comes to Chrome.
If I were Big Pension plc who had marketed a guaranteed index linked pension [not even triple lock] and wrote to a customer of 40 years saying that we were cutting the pension by 20% just because we felt like it they'd have us in court.
HMG is seen as proposing to do that (because of the NI cut).
That's exactly the thinking the vast majority of the public have about the SP, for themselves and for granny.
Doesn't matter if they have other pensions - they've been made to pay NI. At a higher rate for higher incomes, too. And have to pay tax on the whole income at present.
(You know, and I know, but that's the way it looks. Which means alot in politics.)
Just caught up with the headlines dominanted by Diane Abbott and for the first time I can say Starmer looked very shifty in his response
I notice the Tory media and Party have gone quiet on the "Labour needs a 13% lead to win a majority".
Modzimirsk
They are no more likely to stay home than the DKs discarded by YouGov or Redfield etc
Labour are usually pretty disciplined and have their eye on the prize now. This stuff can wait.
As others have noted, the salience of Palestine as an issue is spiky - it’s either really important (for different reasons, to different groups), or pretty irrelevant (to, I suspect, most people).
Abbott etc is political nerd stuff and doesn’t really cut through imo. The baseline tone has been set.
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2024/05/27/president-of-birmingham-young-conservatives-defects-to-liberal-democrats-days-after-election-called/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Vincent Kompany goes from relegated Burnley to Bayern Munich head coach
Wor Lass once spotted Ms Abbott in the cafe at John Lewis in Sloane Square, and went over to say hello to her. The response was anything but warm and friendly.
Just had a text from my daughter in law on route to Vancouver saying they have a medical emergency on board ( between Scotland and Iceland) and not sure if they will have to divert
I didn't know you could what's app from an in flight aircraft
He had no idea about this until he got an invitation to visit Romania in 1990.
It's not Moldova, but it's the closest I've got.
Sixteen unions demand PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott is reinstated.
Could PB Tory favourite Diane Abbott can deliver a Tory victory?
Anything more could be difficult to control as witnessed in the conservative party’s factions
"After much consideration, I have decided that now is the right time for me to step forward in to the political arena to champion the issues and opportunities for the community I love..."
Does she know?
Mostly Starlink (SpaceX)
1. Adopt some polarising policies, e.g. national service [*];
2. When you can't do 1, abuse your opponent by calling him nasty names. If you call somebody Shitpants the Four-Eyed Jimmy Savile-Helping Wanker, he's unlikely to say he can see your point of view, but just excuse him for a moment, because he's carrying this fragile vase over this pile of rocks and needs everything to be quiet and serene.
*And perhaps capital punishment. To would-be Reform voters, possible Tory stay-at-homes, and certain other segments, always call it hanging.
Abbott should be free to stand, indeed hasn’t he implied as much?
This is essentially trivia, save what it tells us about Keir’s judgement (so far, not great).
A Labour win remains the overwhelming favorite, but 1-in-10 shots win all the time. (About one in every eleven times or so.)
I think that turnout will be around 65%, a tad below the level in 2019, and way below the 90% of More in Common respondents who say that they'll vote.
But surely it is up to the leader of the party to determine who he does or does not want representing the party. That said, his big error is not to say he does or he doesn't. He seems incapable of making a decision. I mean this is perfectly understandable in a GE run-up don't frighten the horses kind of way but is simply not sustainable in the longer term (and by that I mean pre-July 4th longer term).
Could be worse. You could have gone full SNP, googled it on a work iPad and then billed the taxpayer for the very niche streaming service that followed...
It is confected nonsense by the media, but it has definitely derailed Starmer. Good on the BBC, good on Victoria Derbyshire.
From their methodology
Note: we will still keep a ‘don’t know’ option available at this second stage. ‘Don’t know’ is a valid response when asking people how they intend to vote far from an election, and we want to avoid assigning people a party vote choice which wouldn’t represent them. We believe that prompting these respondents again to choose - but not forcing them - strikes the best balance.
If this has now been changed fair enough but I've seen nothing saying it has
A 10 point swing between the parties can still be within MoE.
Need to look at the trend rather than just individual polls to separate out the noise.