One interesting slide is a focus on Conservative 2019 female don't knows. Conservative to undecided voters are overwhelmingly female - Whitby Woman. 72 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2019 and now don’t know how they will vote are female. This group skews much older than the rest of the population and are likely to own their home. They are also much more small-c conservative than the rest of the country - coming largely from our Backbone Conservative and Loyal National segments - which supports the idea a large number are in fact disgruntled Conservatives.
Not the usual marginal picture, so may not have much impact?
Question I'm asking is this. Why is that demographic so prevalent all along the east and South coast, but not on the west coast?
One interesting slide is a focus on Conservative 2019 female don't knows. Conservative to undecided voters are overwhelmingly female - Whitby Woman. 72 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2019 and now don’t know how they will vote are female. This group skews much older than the rest of the population and are likely to own their home. They are also much more small-c conservative than the rest of the country - coming largely from our Backbone Conservative and Loyal National segments - which supports the idea a large number are in fact disgruntled Conservatives.
Not the usual marginal picture, so may not have much impact?
Question I'm asking is this. Why is that demographic so prevalent all along the east and South coast, but not on the west coast?
East-West divide. The east is poorer and less politically engaged.
Just caught up with the headlines dominanted by Diane Abbott and for the first time I can say Starmer looked very shifty in his response
It's a tricky position to be in - he's clearly still hoping that a deal can be done, and doesn't want to be the one responsible for it not happening.
Abbott does seem to be being even more of a loose cannon than usual - she's been bashing the leadership on Twitter a couple of times a week, and now we have the rumours about her being barred from standing which she seems to have been at least partly responsible for starting.
There are 4 possibilities that I can think of to explain what's happening:
1) Abbot really is confused or ill, as the anti-Labour media have been hinting at for years. In this case, the party will want to avoid saying so as it'll make them look like shits if they bring it up. 2) She's acting maliciously in order to punish the leadership. If so, the party can't really say that directly, as their opponents would paint it as bullying. 3) It's Starmer's team that are acting maliciously. But in that case why are they being so coy about it? 4) Some junior party official has screwed up and the party's now left trying to fix things somehow whilst Diane is understandably upset.
I reckon 4) is the most probable explanation for what we're seeing, but that's purely a guess. If you take the BJO position and think Starmer is a shit, then I can certainly see how 3) would seem like the more likely option.
I would take 4) but if Abbott's disciplinary process ended in December then I can't see how it can be true, it would have been sorted out by now. Let me propose 5) Starmer's team has proposed something that they genuinely thought was fair but Abbott genuinely thought was too humiliating to accept. The Frank Hester thing happened and Abbott thought Starmer might soften which would explain the House of Commons exchange after that PMQ session and the whole thing has got messy. Still means that Starmer lied through his teeth last week but at least gives him a goodish motive for doing so.
That also sounds reasonable - one of those situations were the two sides have completely misread each others positions.
In that case, the party's best bet is to roll over - it'll be her last election in any case. But if she is, for example, insisting on being able to support Corbyn, I can see why they're resisting.
Where's the dividing line between supporting Corbyn and not supporting Corbyn. I believe the issue of contention was Laura Alvarez and her tweet on Sunday
"Happy birthday to my favourite person and the real leader of the people. Let's celebrate his birthday by getting everyone to #VoteCorbyn Sign up http://Votecorbyn.com I ❤️ Jeremy Corbyn t-shirt."
Abbott is reported to have liked the tweet, was that a like of wishing her close friend and colleague over a number of years a happy birthday or a like of his campaign to win Islington North?
I suspect the suggestion that she wants to actively campaign for Corbyn is coming from the Tory press - hardly disinterested observers.
But that's the case more generally - you have anti-Labour partisans on both the left and right stirring things up for their own reasons. It just adds more noise to what is already a very confused picture!
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Given she supports the right to but she is not a hypocrite, as we have covered as infinitum on here. She opposes the higher level of discount but hers were sold at the lower rate. Hence no hypocrisy.
Yes, the no-confidence vote is a stunt. Are Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems really going to force a new election with Labour 27% ahead in the latest Welsh poll (47% Lab, 20% PC, 20% Con, 12% Ref, 3% LD). Can either of them even afford it?
I think the Abbott debacle (along with other mis-steps) shows Starmer’s political inexperience.
We’re about to replace one politically inexperienced technocrat with another. Both men are smart, both sincere in wanting to better the country’s lot, via different routes, both have been in front line politics for less than a decade.
That’s why I fear he relies too heavily on SPADs, who are “clever”.
I suspect we’re in for a bumpy ride.
Starmer was floated as a potential leader weeks after first being elected, which is rather remarkable.
Only Rishi and Cameron had less time in parliament before becoming PM (should he win), though Cameron just by a few months.
I think the Abbott debacle (along with other mis-steps) shows Starmer’s political inexperience.
We’re about to replace one politically inexperienced technocrat with another. Both men are smart, both sincere in wanting to better the country’s lot, via different routes, both have been in front line politics for less than a decade.
That’s why I fear he relies too heavily on SPADs, who are “clever”.
I suspect we’re in for a bumpy ride.
I don't so much fear a bumpy ride as much as a long term disenfranchisement that they both might bring,
One interesting slide is a focus on Conservative 2019 female don't knows. Conservative to undecided voters are overwhelmingly female - Whitby Woman. 72 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2019 and now don’t know how they will vote are female. This group skews much older than the rest of the population and are likely to own their home. They are also much more small-c conservative than the rest of the country - coming largely from our Backbone Conservative and Loyal National segments - which supports the idea a large number are in fact disgruntled Conservatives.
Not the usual marginal picture, so may not have much impact?
Question I'm asking is this. Why is that demographic so prevalent all along the east and South coast, but not on the west coast?
A similar question is: why does that correlate to old (pre-ref) UKIP support?
One thing to note in my 4 beat combo, Angus and the Perthshire Glens is that one week in we have had a large A3 4 page glossy and a personally addressed letter from our local Tory candidate pointing out its him or the SNP. Some serious money is being chucked at this seat which I wouldn't have thought was a top Tory target. Nothing from any other party including the hard up incumbent. Will this make any difference to anyone except the recycling van? Who knows but I thought i would mention it.
Tory him or just him? Checking on how much distancing is going on from the mother ship.
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Truss is out to get Reform supporters voting Conservitive in the “Red Wall” seats, so why wouldn’t she appear on a podcast with 400k Youtube subscribers? It’s only the left who have this obsession with “sharing a platform”.
New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19 🔵Conservative 26 (-1) 🔴Labour 45 (+1) 🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-) 🟢Green 5 (-1) 🟣Reform UK 11 (+1) Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008
The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.
Movement within the MoE is not movement (either way), its noise
However virtually all movement does occur within MoE. Something like 99% of all polls move within MoE, even when changes are happening.
A 10 point swing between the parties can still be within MoE.
Need to look at the trend rather than just individual polls to separate out the noise.
And there is, as yet, no trend
Stability is in itself a trend.
Touchè
Accent aigu s'il vous plait
plaît
Perhaps for a dinosaur, Mr megasaur, but accentless has been acceptable for decades: Place à l’orthographe à présent : « s’il vous plaît » peut s’écrire, depuis les rectifications orthographiques de 1990, « s’il vous plait », sans accent circonflexe sur le « i ». Les deux orthographes – avec ou sans accent circonflexe – sont toutes les deux valables. https://www.projet-voltaire.fr/regles-orthographe/s-il-vous-plait/#
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
You know, the good guys in this world don't go around announcing all the horrible things that they could in theory do but have decided, in their bountiful generosity (or, in this case, because it would please him insufficiently) not to do.
The effect of saying things like can only ever be extremely menacing to the person they're referring to, and it takes an excessively penurious view of language or an exceptionally robotic form of literalism to imply that what he said was anything other than gross, frightening and intimidatory.
It's just the same as someone saying "that's a nice house you've got there, shame if it burned down" or similar. Yeah, you can parse the words as being benign, but only if you understand not the slightest fucking thing about how meaning and intention works for actual humans.
Yeah no. If I say I would not give you the steam off my piss, it does not mean I am going to attempt to urinate on you. The Berkley Hunt called her ugly and should wind his neck in, but that's all.
Following on from my comment below (I know you'll mostly be too busy posting likes to get around to this one as swiftly as usual), where are the new ideas in British politics? I don't mean who's a genius and has managed to come up with stuff that the Greeks hadn't thought of, but where is there actual bravery and thought as to possible solutions to the many big problems that are ahead?
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Oh no! What is TheCriticalDrinker's view of Gaza? Or HeelsVsBabyface's opinion of Chinese utilisation of weaponised fishery vessels around the nine-dash line? My life will not be complete without full coverage of the reckons of twats. I might have to make up my own mind! ...😀
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Truss is out to get Reform supporters voting Conservitive in the “Red Wall” seats, so why wouldn’t she appear on a podcast with 400k Youtube subscribers? It’s only the left who have this obsession with “sharing a platform”.
Err, so no-one on the right ever complained about the company that Corbyn kept? As always its both sides do it, sometimes they are right to do so, other times they go too far with it.
Electoral Calculus may be way off course but I reckon there are about a dozen Conservative seats in this list that can be deemed "safe". Even some of the normally safest seats are at risk of falling to the Lib Dems, where Labour isn't a contender.
This doesn't mean the Conservatives will only win 12 seats. There are at least 150 other seats in play with small margins either way. But it does mean a very small further shift to Labour will see the Conservatives all but wiped out. Not sure people have really taken this on board.
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Truss is out to get Reform supporters voting Conservitive in the “Red Wall” seats, so why wouldn’t she appear on a podcast with 400k Youtube subscribers? It’s only the left who have this obsession with “sharing a platform”.
By all means Truss is free to share a platform with various alt-right figures who joke about raping MPs.
And we are free to form an opinion of what kind of person that makes her.
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Given she supports the right to but she is not a hypocrite, as we have covered as infinitum on here. She opposes the higher level of discount but hers were sold at the lower rate. Hence no hypocrisy.
Of course you want to believe that. If a Tory did something so completely crass (and there have been plenty of instances) you'd be bashing yourself off about it for weeks. But a good old Labour politician, that's ok. Well, I guess it is par for the course, and hers will no doubt pale once the champagne socialists have their head in the trough for a year or so. It was forever thus.
A senior Labour politician milking the right to buy, not once but twice, is definitely not hypocritical, no no no! FFS!
New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19 🔵Conservative 26 (-1) 🔴Labour 45 (+1) 🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-) 🟢Green 5 (-1) 🟣Reform UK 11 (+1) Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008
The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.
It’s all just tiny MOE stuff.
Are you saying that the YouGov movement for Labour from 44% to 47%, with a sample size of 2128, is within margin of error?
Of course it is!
You do realise that MoE being ± means that double the MoE movement is still within MoE, don't you?
I’m not sure he does!
I'm starting to wonder whether anyone here has the slightest inkling about statistics.
Here's a baby step for you. What's the variance of the difference between two normally distributed variables? What is the mean? And what is the distribution? Does the answer give you a clue as to tell whether the difference between two sample values is statistically significant?
The 1.pm News was wall to wall Starmer's misstep/duplicity/arrogance over Abbott. Unlikely to move the dial but you'd have to have a heart of stone not to be moved.
She seems genuinely bewildered and upset. I don't feel Starmer is a particularly straight dealer.
With Blair in '97 you felt instinctively he'd do the right thing. With Starmer I have no such feeling.
To be honest, that does not say much for your instincts.
In 1997 you might have felt that about Blair but later, and especially after 2003 …….
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Given she supports the right to but she is not a hypocrite, as we have covered as infinitum on here. She opposes the higher level of discount but hers were sold at the lower rate. Hence no hypocrisy.
Of course you want to believe that. If a Tory did something so completely crass (and there have been plenty of instances) you'd be bashing yourself off about it for weeks. But a good old Labour politician, that's ok. Well, I guess it is par for the course, and hers will no doubt pale once the champagne socialists have their head in the trough for a year or so. It was forever thus.
A senior Labour politician milking the right to buy, not once but twice, is definitely not hypocritical, no no no! FFS!
One thing to note in my 4 beat combo, Angus and the Perthshire Glens is that one week in we have had a large A3 4 page glossy and a personally addressed letter from our local Tory candidate pointing out its him or the SNP. Some serious money is being chucked at this seat which I wouldn't have thought was a top Tory target. Nothing from any other party including the hard up incumbent. Will this make any difference to anyone except the recycling van? Who knows but I thought i would mention it.
Angus and the Southern Perthshire seat were both held by the Tories in 2017, they had a good by election win there last month. About 5% swing needed from notionals. Long shot but would be one of a dozen they'll shoot at
He does know. Somebody told him, so he is aware of that fact. He can also tell you other facts, like the length of a swimming pool or the first number one of 2000. He has many facts at his disposal and spends many happy hours in his large mansion discussing them with his heir-to-a-billionaire wife.
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Where's the hypocrisy? That she bought a Council house and hasn't become a Tory? The absolute cheek of it!
Housing Act 1985
121c This section sets out that all purchases of a council house must vote Conservative in perpetuity, especially if they are working class and/or female.
He does know. Somebody told him, so he is aware of that fact. He can also tell you other facts, like the length of a swimming pool or the first number one of 2000. He has many facts at his disposal and spends many happy hours in his large mansion discussing them with his heir-to-a-billionaire wife.
Doubt Sunak knows the “first number 1 of 2000”. His cultural awareness seems to be extremely low.
One interesting slide is a focus on Conservative 2019 female don't knows. Conservative to undecided voters are overwhelmingly female - Whitby Woman. 72 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2019 and now don’t know how they will vote are female. This group skews much older than the rest of the population and are likely to own their home. They are also much more small-c conservative than the rest of the country - coming largely from our Backbone Conservative and Loyal National segments - which supports the idea a large number are in fact disgruntled Conservatives.
Not the usual marginal picture, so may not have much impact?
Question I'm asking is this. Why is that demographic so prevalent all along the east and South coast, but not on the west coast?
The English West Coast is mostly areas that are fairly atypical - Merseyside, Cumbria, Bristol and Devon and Cornwall. It's also much smaller than the East Coast. Wales also has a different political tradition. On the East Coast between London and Newcastle there is a huge swathe of left behind areas, former industrial and fishing towns down on their luck. The South Coast is full of retirees.
His main topic of ire was the US Democrats, but obviously I disagree with him about Ukraine. In the US context, it’s only been recently explained that the vast majority of “Ukraine” spending is actually supporting American jobs in the MIC.
It’s good to listen to people with whom you agree on some things and disagree on others.
He does know. Somebody told him, so he is aware of that fact. He can also tell you other facts, like the length of a swimming pool or the first number one of 2000. He has many facts at his disposal and spends many happy hours in his large mansion discussing them with his heir-to-a-billionaire wife.
Doubt Sunak knows the “first number 1 of 2000”. His cultural awareness seems to be extremely low.
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Following on from my comment below (I know you'll mostly be too busy posting likes to get around to this one as swiftly as usual), where are the new ideas in British politics? I don't mean who's a genius and has managed to come up with stuff that the Greeks hadn't thought of, but where is there actual bravery and thought as to possible solutions to the many big problems that are ahead?
I did write two articles about transhumanism and Solarpunk..,
Just caught up with the headlines dominanted by Diane Abbott and for the first time I can say Starmer looked very shifty in his response
It's a tricky position to be in - he's clearly still hoping that a deal can be done, and doesn't want to be the one responsible for it not happening.
Abbott does seem to be being even more of a loose cannon than usual - she's been bashing the leadership on Twitter a couple of times a week, and now we have the rumours about her being barred from standing which she seems to have been at least partly responsible for starting.
There are 4 possibilities that I can think of to explain what's happening:
1) Abbot really is confused or ill, as the anti-Labour media have been hinting at for years. In this case, the party will want to avoid saying so as it'll make them look like shits if they bring it up. 2) She's acting maliciously in order to punish the leadership. If so, the party can't really say that directly, as their opponents would paint it as bullying. 3) It's Starmer's team that are acting maliciously. But in that case why are they being so coy about it? 4) Some junior party official has screwed up and the party's now left trying to fix things somehow whilst Diane is understandably upset.
I reckon 4) is the most probable explanation for what we're seeing, but that's purely a guess. If you take the BJO position and think Starmer is a shit, then I can certainly see how 3) would seem like the more likely option.
I would take 4) but if Abbott's disciplinary process ended in December then I can't see how it can be true, it would have been sorted out by now. Let me propose 5) Starmer's team has proposed something that they genuinely thought was fair but Abbott genuinely thought was too humiliating to accept. The Frank Hester thing happened and Abbott thought Starmer might soften which would explain the House of Commons exchange after that PMQ session and the whole thing has got messy. Still means that Starmer lied through his teeth last week but at least gives him a goodish motive for doing so.
They can’t keep her out of the party without a legal fight they’ll almost certainly lose, but also don’t want her campaigning for Corbyn the independent. That’s the naked politics, and it’s visible from space, which is why it backfired on Starmer.
Letting her stand and then suspending her if she campaigns for Corbyn seems simplest. No challenge there, you can't back someone running against the party.
If she campaigns for Corbyn it makes their decision for them in the simplest possible way. Labour rulebook 101, if you campaign for someone else, you're out. In many ways it would be the absolute ideal thing for those who want her out as that's it, cut and dried. It's resolved any ambiguity over Corbyn.
The difficulty is more likely this - as it was to some extent with Corbyn. Abbott got, rightly, suspended for saying something awful. Under the complaints procedure she did what she was asked in relation to the incident. Issued an apology, did the 'antisemitism training' required. Under the rules, you've done the crime, served your time. You're back in.
However, anyone with a knowledge of Abbott's history or who's seen what she's shared on social media (e.g. stuff saying 'antisemitism is a scam' - shared since purportedly had training), knows she still holds the same troubling views that caused a problem in the first place by being written down in a letter.
It's not an accident the far left always get into trouble on antisemitism, as they don't see a significant chunk of it as real - when it comes from the left at those deemed as having "power" or references Israel. But that's a complicated and likely painful case to prosecute. Not one a political party facing an election wants to do in a way say, academics, activists, and journalists feel free to.
So you're left in an invidious position because it is complicated. By the letter of the law you should be welcoming back and saying "don't do it again". But you know Abbott agrees with Corbyn that antisemitism is "exaggerated" or a "scam". Views you'd like out of the party, ultimately, given the untold damage they've caused. And readmitting her with a clean bill of health looks very bad to those who demand "zero tolerance" on these things.
However, it's ludicrously heavy handed to make her a martyr and against natural justice to justify booting out on those views unless, as before, publicly states them in ways that cross the line. Building a case around snippets is complicated and no sure thing.
So you hope she'll get the hint and go quietly into the night and everyone can save face - except someone - either among the leadership or on the left who got wind of it - had other ideas.
New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19 🔵Conservative 26 (-1) 🔴Labour 45 (+1) 🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-) 🟢Green 5 (-1) 🟣Reform UK 11 (+1) Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008
The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.
It’s all just tiny MOE stuff.
Are you saying that the YouGov movement for Labour from 44% to 47%, with a sample size of 2128, is within margin of error?
Of course it is!
You do realise that MoE being ± means that double the MoE movement is still within MoE, don't you?
I’m not sure he does!
I'm starting to wonder whether anyone here has the slightest inkling about statistics.
Here's a baby step for you. What's the variance of the difference between two normally distributed variables? What is the mean? And what is the distribution? Does the answer give you a clue as to tell whether the difference between two sample values is statistically significant?
The changes in all polls in the last few days have been within the MOE, as I said. It really is that simple.
I think the Abbott debacle (along with other mis-steps) shows Starmer’s political inexperience.
We’re about to replace one politically inexperienced technocrat with another. Both men are smart, both sincere in wanting to better the country’s lot, via different routes, both have been in front line politics for less than a decade.
That’s why I fear he relies too heavily on SPADs, who are “clever”.
I suspect we’re in for a bumpy ride.
Starmer was floated as a potential leader weeks after first being elected, which is rather remarkable.
Only Rishi and Cameron had less time in parliament before becoming PM (should he win), though Cameron just by a few months.
I could imagine Andy Street being tipped as a future PM if he wanted a seat this time. He would only be 69/70 after two Starmer terms (one for the next leader to lose from the right and then he can take the party back to the centre)
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Given she supports the right to but she is not a hypocrite, as we have covered as infinitum on here. She opposes the higher level of discount but hers were sold at the lower rate. Hence no hypocrisy.
Of course you want to believe that. If a Tory did something so completely crass (and there have been plenty of instances) you'd be bashing yourself off about it for weeks. But a good old Labour politician, that's ok. Well, I guess it is par for the course, and hers will no doubt pale once the champagne socialists have their head in the trough for a year or so. It was forever thus.
A senior Labour politician milking the right to buy, not once but twice, is definitely not hypocritical, no no no! FFS!
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Truss is out to get Reform supporters voting Conservitive in the “Red Wall” seats, so why wouldn’t she appear on a podcast with 400k Youtube subscribers? It’s only the left who have this obsession with “sharing a platform”.
By all means Truss is free to share a platform with various alt-right figures who joke about raping MPs.
And we are free to form an opinion of what kind of person that makes her.
The quotes where from 2018, and as I said above, 2018 “Sargon of Akkad” is a very different person from 2022 Carl Benjamin, who’s no more controversial today than GB News, and has 400k followers on Youtube.
Should people not be allowed to be rehabilitated into society?
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Where's the hypocrisy? That she bought a Council house and hasn't become a Tory? The absolute cheek of it!
Housing Act 1985
121c This section sets out that all purchases of a council house must vote Conservative in perpetuity, especially if they are working class and/or female.
I think you got the wrong section. There is an extension to it that allows for Labour politicians to exploit the sale of two council houses, and unlike normal people they are exempt from the proper scrutiny that ought to be applied by HMRC. It is called Trump's Law and it allows special dispensations for those in positions (or about to be in) of power
The last Labour deputy PM had "Two Jags" as an epithet, which had a slightly better ring than "Two Council Houses" and was slightly less hypocritical.
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Truss is out to get Reform supporters voting Conservitive in the “Red Wall” seats, so why wouldn’t she appear on a podcast with 400k Youtube subscribers? It’s only the left who have this obsession with “sharing a platform”.
You're normally better than this. A 'joke' about rape may, possibly, be in poor taste for someone like you. A joke specifying a specific woman who is "too ugly to rape" is beyond poor taste and is evil. The bloke's a complete bastard.
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Given she supports the right to but she is not a hypocrite, as we have covered as infinitum on here. She opposes the higher level of discount but hers were sold at the lower rate. Hence no hypocrisy.
Of course you want to believe that. If a Tory did something so completely crass (and there have been plenty of instances) you'd be bashing yourself off about it for weeks. But a good old Labour politician, that's ok. Well, I guess it is par for the course, and hers will no doubt pale once the champagne socialists have their head in the trough for a year or so. It was forever thus.
A senior Labour politician milking the right to buy, not once but twice, is definitely not hypocritical, no no no! FFS!
Labour current support “right to buy”.
I’m struggling to see your point. As usual.
That is, to put it highly politely, because you are a thick pompous prick with the brain of an amoeba.
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
I think the Abbott debacle (along with other mis-steps) shows Starmer’s political inexperience.
We’re about to replace one politically inexperienced technocrat with another. Both men are smart, both sincere in wanting to better the country’s lot, via different routes, both have been in front line politics for less than a decade.
That’s why I fear he relies too heavily on SPADs, who are “clever”.
I suspect we’re in for a bumpy ride.
Starmer was floated as a potential leader weeks after first being elected, which is rather remarkable.
Only Rishi and Cameron had less time in parliament before becoming PM (should he win), though Cameron just by a few months.
I could imagine Andy Street being tipped as a future PM if he wanted a seat this time. He would only be 69/70 after two Starmer terms (one for the next leader to lose from the right and then he can take the party back to the centre)
Except Andy Street yesterday wrote a reply which basically said appoint me head of an one of Labour's new energy / business / railway quangos
If you've got a drinking game planned, recommend you confine it to SNP losses or Lib Dem gains.
We would miss you if you went for Tory and Labour respectively and died of alcohol poisoning.
Tory gains will I think give you a couple of drinks as Scottish seat results came back..
A few Labour losses? Maybe Islington? Bradford West?
Bristol Central (Rishi's 'policy offers' might well convince younger, middle class to stick with Labour, however) and Islington North, possibly. The local elections don't suggest Gorgeous George will hold Rochdale.
New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19 🔵Conservative 26 (-1) 🔴Labour 45 (+1) 🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-) 🟢Green 5 (-1) 🟣Reform UK 11 (+1) Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008
The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.
It’s all just tiny MOE stuff.
Are you saying that the YouGov movement for Labour from 44% to 47%, with a sample size of 2128, is within margin of error?
Of course it is!
You do realise that MoE being ± means that double the MoE movement is still within MoE, don't you?
I’m not sure he does!
I'm starting to wonder whether anyone here has the slightest inkling about statistics.
Here's a baby step for you. What's the variance of the difference between two normally distributed variables? What is the mean? And what is the distribution? Does the answer give you a clue as to tell whether the difference between two sample values is statistically significant?
Assuming independence and no covariance, var(a-b) = var(a) + var(b).
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Truss is out to get Reform supporters voting Conservitive in the “Red Wall” seats, so why wouldn’t she appear on a podcast with 400k Youtube subscribers? It’s only the left who have this obsession with “sharing a platform”.
You're normally better than this. A 'joke' about rape may, possibly, be in poor taste for someone like you. A joke specifying a specific woman who is "too ugly to rape" is beyond poor taste and is evil. The bloke's a complete bastard.
It was six years ago, when the guy was an internet sh!tposter, and not today when the guy is a relatively respectable right-wing podcaster with 400k followers. I agree that the joke was in very poor taste, but it’s not the sort of thing he would ever say today.
Oh no! What is TheCriticalDrinker's view of Gaza? Or HeelsVsBabyface's opinion of Chinese utilisation of weaponised fishery vessels around the nine-dash line? My life will not be complete without full coverage of the reckons of twats. I might have to make up my own mind! ...😀
In all honesty, I could see the Drinker voting for SLAB because I don't exactly get the impression he's fond of the SNP;.
I'm in Lloyd Russell-Moyle's constituency - his suspension won't go down well. I'm not personally a fan, but his profile in his constituency is very impressive; he's always around, highly visible, works his socks off, seems to know everybody and does an awful lot of 'good things' in the community.
Absolutely ruthless now by Starmer. Clearing house.
It is an interesting turn around from the man that only 5 years ago was endorsing the idea that Jeremy Corbyn should be PM and Diane Abbott the Home Secretary.
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Where's the hypocrisy? That she bought a Council house and hasn't become a Tory? The absolute cheek of it!
Housing Act 1985
121c This section sets out that all purchases of a council house must vote Conservative in perpetuity, especially if they are working class and/or female.
I think you got the wrong section. There is an extension to it that allows for Labour politicians to exploit the sale of two council houses, and unlike normal people they are exempt from the proper scrutiny that ought to be applied by HMRC. It is called Trump's Law and it allows special dispensations for those in positions (or about to be in) of power
The last Labour deputy PM had "Two Jags" as an epithet, which had a slightly better ring than "Two Council Houses" and was slightly less hypocritical.
Got to say you are really (laughingly) struggling to come up with a decent anti-labour attack line.
Oh no! What is TheCriticalDrinker's view of Gaza? Or HeelsVsBabyface's opinion of Chinese utilisation of weaponised fishery vessels around the nine-dash line? My life will not be complete without full coverage of the reckons of twats. I might have to make up my own mind! ...😀
In all honesty, I could see the Drinker voting for SLAB because I don't exactly get the impression he's fond of the SNP;.
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Truss is out to get Reform supporters voting Conservitive in the “Red Wall” seats, so why wouldn’t she appear on a podcast with 400k Youtube subscribers? It’s only the left who have this obsession with “sharing a platform”.
By all means Truss is free to share a platform with various alt-right figures who joke about raping MPs.
And we are free to form an opinion of what kind of person that makes her.
The quotes where from 2018, and as I said above, 2018 “Sargon of Akkad” is a very different person from 2022 Carl Benjamin, who’s no more controversial today than GB News, and has 400k followers on Youtube.
Should people not be allowed to be rehabilitated into society?
In theory yes, but I think you are incredibly naive about the alt-right commentariat and their vandalism of all sorts of norms, including the one whereby we don’t joke about raping MPs.
I’m also unconvinced (see other commentators) Benjamin has actually changed all that much.
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Truss is out to get Reform supporters voting Conservitive in the “Red Wall” seats, so why wouldn’t she appear on a podcast with 400k Youtube subscribers? It’s only the left who have this obsession with “sharing a platform”.
By all means Truss is free to share a platform with various alt-right figures who joke about raping MPs.
And we are free to form an opinion of what kind of person that makes her.
The quotes where from 2018, and as I said above, 2018 “Sargon of Akkad” is a very different person from 2022 Carl Benjamin, who’s no more controversial today than GB News, and has 400k followers on Youtube.
Should people not be allowed to be rehabilitated into society?
As "2022 Carl Benjamin" in today's tweets thinks the views expressed by "2018 Sargon of Akkad” are absolutely fine, I doubt he's either a different person or rehabilitated.
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Truss is out to get Reform supporters voting Conservitive in the “Red Wall” seats, so why wouldn’t she appear on a podcast with 400k Youtube subscribers? It’s only the left who have this obsession with “sharing a platform”.
Err, so no-one on the right ever complained about the company that Corbyn kept? As always its both sides do it, sometimes they are right to do so, other times they go too far with it.
Agreed.
The issue with Corbyn was that he has never changed his views on anything, whereas Benjamin has been quite honest about his past and willingness to become a lot more moderate. Corbyn was also running to be Prime Minister, to which I suspect a higher standard should apply!
As an IT guy specialising in security, I always laugh at the utter failure of all political parties to properly vet their candidates. There’s almost certainly another Jared O’Mara out there somewhere, who be sworn in as an MP in July.
I don't think 89% is is "utterly convinced". Remain was an 85% chance on the eve of counting. And Trump in 2016 probably wasn't that different.
A Labour win remains the overwhelming favorite, but 1-in-10 shots win all the time. (About one in every eleven times or so.)
Personally, I think it's a little bit too short.
I'm not convinced everyone has tuned into the reality of an election taking place yet, usually the final 3 weeks, and the pollsters still have some questions on the mahoosive turnout estimates they're getting that are not matched by real votes.
My current guess is Labour gets 40-41% on the day and the Tories 28-29% with the LDs outperforming and Reform about 6-7%.
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Truss is out to get Reform supporters voting Conservitive in the “Red Wall” seats, so why wouldn’t she appear on a podcast with 400k Youtube subscribers? It’s only the left who have this obsession with “sharing a platform”.
By all means Truss is free to share a platform with various alt-right figures who joke about raping MPs.
And we are free to form an opinion of what kind of person that makes her.
The quotes where from 2018, and as I said above, 2018 “Sargon of Akkad” is a very different person from 2022 Carl Benjamin, who’s no more controversial today than GB News, and has 400k followers on Youtube.
Should people not be allowed to be rehabilitated into society?
As "2022 Carl Benjamin" in today's tweets thinks the views expressed by "2018 Sargon of Akkad” are absolutely fine, I doubt he's either a different person or rehabilitated.
I believe he and his mate Conor Tomlinson think Reform's immigration policy is too liberal and want immigration completely stopped for several years. Is also mate's with Tommy Robinson and seems to believe 'establishment' politicians are controlled by the WEF and Tony Blair.
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Where's the hypocrisy? That she bought a Council house and hasn't become a Tory? The absolute cheek of it!
Housing Act 1985
121c This section sets out that all purchases of a council house must vote Conservative in perpetuity, especially if they are working class and/or female.
I think you got the wrong section. There is an extension to it that allows for Labour politicians to exploit the sale of two council houses, and unlike normal people they are exempt from the proper scrutiny that ought to be applied by HMRC. It is called Trump's Law and it allows special dispensations for those in positions (or about to be in) of power
The last Labour deputy PM had "Two Jags" as an epithet, which had a slightly better ring than "Two Council Houses" and was slightly less hypocritical.
Got to say you are really (laughingly) struggling to come up with a decent anti-labour attack line.
I don't need an anti-Labour "attack line", as they provide them for themselves in the same way Jas politicians on all sides do. The problem is many people are just too politically tribalist to see it. "My party right or wrong" is clearly your mantra. Why is it some otherwise intelligent people find it necessary to look the other way when someone from the party they support is on obvious dodgy ground? Oh, she is "working class" (people still believe in this archaic shit), so therefore she is something close to saintliness. Be more open minded. Maybe she made a mistake. Maybe she really is very stupid. Labour is going to make her deputy PM because she is "working class". There are going to be lots of lols!.
New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19 🔵Conservative 26 (-1) 🔴Labour 45 (+1) 🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-) 🟢Green 5 (-1) 🟣Reform UK 11 (+1) Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008
The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.
It’s all just tiny MOE stuff.
Are you saying that the YouGov movement for Labour from 44% to 47%, with a sample size of 2128, is within margin of error?
Of course it is!
You do realise that MoE being ± means that double the MoE movement is still within MoE, don't you?
I’m not sure he does!
I'm starting to wonder whether anyone here has the slightest inkling about statistics.
Here's a baby step for you. What's the variance of the difference between two normally distributed variables? What is the mean? And what is the distribution? Does the answer give you a clue as to tell whether the difference between two sample values is statistically significant?
Assuming independence and no covariance, var(a-b) = var(a) + var(b).
Angela Rayner is brazenly guilty. Of being an uppity working class woman who doesn't know her proper place.
She probably is that. More importantly she is a fecking hypocrite who cashed in on not one but two council house sales.
Where's the hypocrisy? That she bought a Council house and hasn't become a Tory? The absolute cheek of it!
Housing Act 1985
121c This section sets out that all purchases of a council house must vote Conservative in perpetuity, especially if they are working class and/or female.
I think you got the wrong section. There is an extension to it that allows for Labour politicians to exploit the sale of two council houses, and unlike normal people they are exempt from the proper scrutiny that ought to be applied by HMRC. It is called Trump's Law and it allows special dispensations for those in positions (or about to be in) of power
The last Labour deputy PM had "Two Jags" as an epithet, which had a slightly better ring than "Two Council Houses" and was slightly less hypocritical.
Got to say you are really (laughingly) struggling to come up with a decent anti-labour attack line.
I don't need an anti-Labour "attack line", as they provide them for themselves in the same way Jas politicians on all sides do. The problem is many people are just too politically tribalist to see it. "My party right or wrong" is clearly your mantra. Why is it some otherwise intelligent people find it necessary to look the other way when someone from the party they support is on obvious dodgy ground? Oh, she is "working class" (people still believe in this archaic shit), so therefore she is something close to saintliness. Be more open minded. Maybe she made a mistake. Maybe she really is very stupid. Labour is going to make her deputy PM because she is "working class". There are going to be lots of lols!.
She will be deputy PM because she won the deputy leader election campaign - no more to it than that...
But I find you attempts to attack her desperate - firstly who on this site cares what you think
and secondly if you have dealt with broken families you will discover whole sets of very different situations that from the outside after don't make much sense but people make work..
Voters who don’t think someone should lose their job for appearing on a podcast of someone whom others find objectionable. They give a sh!t.
Jess Philips, the queen of cancel culture, and a great example of the attitude a Labour government will have towards freedom of speech.
It seems pretty reasonable to me that Jess Phillips should have strong opinions about a senior politician who hangs out with someone who has repeatedly talked about raping her.
From the quote in the latter, it appears that the gentleman in question was talking about not raping her.
I'll quote the double down.
“There’s been an awful lot of talk about whether I would or wouldn’t rape Jess Phillips. I suppose with enough pressure I might cave, but let’s be honest nobody’s got that much beer.”
And really if anyone's going to be talking about attractiveness, it's not like Carl Benjamin is an Adonis.
It’s a joke, not a rape threat. That was my point. Perhaps in poor taste, but a joke nonetheless.
Truss is out to get Reform supporters voting Conservitive in the “Red Wall” seats, so why wouldn’t she appear on a podcast with 400k Youtube subscribers? It’s only the left who have this obsession with “sharing a platform”.
Err, so no-one on the right ever complained about the company that Corbyn kept? As always its both sides do it, sometimes they are right to do so, other times they go too far with it.
Agreed.
The issue with Corbyn was that he has never changed his views on anything, whereas Benjamin has been quite honest about his past and willingness to become a lot more moderate. Corbyn was also running to be Prime Minister, to which I suspect a higher standard should apply!
As an IT guy specialising in security, I always laugh at the utter failure of all political parties to properly vet their candidates. There’s almost certainly another Jared O’Mara out there somewhere, who be sworn in as an MP in July.
When has Benjamin expressed a willingness to be more moderate?
New @Moreincommon_ voting intention, 27-29 May Margin of error changes see Labour's lead at 19 🔵Conservative 26 (-1) 🔴Labour 45 (+1) 🟡Liberal Democrat 9 (-) 🟢Green 5 (-1) 🟣Reform UK 11 (+1) Changes with 22-23 May n = 2008
The JLP poll looks increasingly like an outlier. MiC is the fourth in a row that has edged away from the Tories, whilst JLP has gone the other way.
It’s all just tiny MOE stuff.
Are you saying that the YouGov movement for Labour from 44% to 47%, with a sample size of 2128, is within margin of error?
Of course it is!
You do realise that MoE being ± means that double the MoE movement is still within MoE, don't you?
I’m not sure he does!
I'm starting to wonder whether anyone here has the slightest inkling about statistics.
Here's a baby step for you. What's the variance of the difference between two normally distributed variables? What is the mean? And what is the distribution? Does the answer give you a clue as to tell whether the difference between two sample values is statistically significant?
The changes in all polls in the last few days have been within the MOE, as I said. It really is that simple.
Comments
Why is that demographic so prevalent all along the east and South coast, but not on the west coast?
But that's the case more generally - you have anti-Labour partisans on both the left and right stirring things up for their own reasons. It just adds more noise to what is already a very confused picture!
That she bought a Council house and hasn't become a Tory?
The absolute cheek of it!
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1795856072760062210
The people in the background are hilarious LOL
Only Rishi and Cameron had less time in parliament before becoming PM (should he win), though Cameron just by a few months.
This will be the election of the super-smarmy.
Checking on how much distancing is going on from the mother ship.
Also, as I suspected, the quotes were from several years ago and not recent. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ukip-mep-candidate-says-carl-benjamin-jokes-about-raping-mp-jess-philips-were-risque-155248927.html
Truss is out to get Reform supporters voting Conservitive in the “Red Wall” seats, so why wouldn’t she appear on a podcast with 400k Youtube subscribers? It’s only the left who have this obsession with “sharing a platform”.
Place à l’orthographe à présent : « s’il vous plaît » peut s’écrire, depuis les rectifications orthographiques de 1990, « s’il vous plait », sans accent circonflexe sur le « i ». Les deux orthographes – avec ou sans accent circonflexe – sont toutes les deux valables.
https://www.projet-voltaire.fr/regles-orthographe/s-il-vous-plait/#
This doesn't mean the Conservatives will only win 12 seats. There are at least 150 other seats in play with small margins either way. But it does mean a very small further shift to Labour will see the Conservatives all but wiped out. Not sure people have really taken this on board.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
And we are free to form an opinion of what kind of person that makes her.
A senior Labour politician milking the right to buy, not once but twice, is definitely not hypocritical, no no no! FFS!
Here's a baby step for you. What's the variance of the difference between two normally distributed variables? What is the mean? And what is the distribution? Does the answer give you a clue as to tell whether the difference between two sample values is statistically significant?
I’m struggling to see your point.
As usual.
The PB Tories / PB ‘Lifelong Labour Voters’ never learn do they?
121c This section sets out that all purchases of a council house must vote Conservative in perpetuity, especially if they are working class and/or female.
His cultural awareness seems to be extremely low.
It’s good to listen to people with whom you agree on some things and disagree on others.
https://x.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1795862063480234472?s=61
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/04/07/transhumanism/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/05/12/solarpunk/
The difficulty is more likely this - as it was to some extent with Corbyn. Abbott got, rightly, suspended for saying something awful. Under the complaints procedure she did what she was asked in relation to the incident. Issued an apology, did the 'antisemitism training' required. Under the rules, you've done the crime, served your time. You're back in.
However, anyone with a knowledge of Abbott's history or who's seen what she's shared on social media (e.g. stuff saying 'antisemitism is a scam' - shared since purportedly had training), knows she still holds the same troubling views that caused a problem in the first place by being written down in a letter.
It's not an accident the far left always get into trouble on antisemitism, as they don't see a significant chunk of it as real - when it comes from the left at those deemed as having "power" or references Israel. But that's a complicated and likely painful case to prosecute. Not one a political party facing an election wants to do in a way say, academics, activists, and journalists feel free to.
So you're left in an invidious position because it is complicated. By the letter of the law you should be welcoming back and saying "don't do it again". But you know Abbott agrees with Corbyn that antisemitism is "exaggerated" or a "scam". Views you'd like out of the party, ultimately, given the untold damage they've caused. And readmitting her with a clean bill of health looks very bad to those who demand "zero tolerance" on these things.
However, it's ludicrously heavy handed to make her a martyr and against natural justice to justify booting out on those views unless, as before, publicly states them in ways that cross the line. Building a case around snippets is complicated and no sure thing.
So you hope she'll get the hint and go quietly into the night and everyone can save face - except someone - either among the leadership or on the left who got wind of it - had other ideas.
Talking about it because it's newsworthy and informative as to Labour's internal situation - valid
I'm sure PB Labour would prefer nobody discuss anything awkward for SKS but there we are, tough.
Sky just saying it is chaotic and an unforced error by labour
Should people not be allowed to be rehabilitated into society?
Rosie D certainly won't
The last Labour deputy PM had "Two Jags" as an epithet, which had a slightly better ring than "Two Council Houses" and was slightly less hypocritical.
https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/israel-disgraces-jews-candidate-blocked-from-standing-again-for-labour/
I’m also unconvinced (see other commentators) Benjamin has actually changed all that much.
Just saying...
https://www.dazeddigital.com/artsandculture/article/22532/1/londons-hellraiser-vhs-mystery-has-been-solved
Immediately followed by Matheson debacle - two unforced errors.
The issue with Corbyn was that he has never changed his views on anything, whereas Benjamin has been quite honest about his past and willingness to become a lot more moderate. Corbyn was also running to be Prime Minister, to which I suspect a higher standard should apply!
As an IT guy specialising in security, I always laugh at the utter failure of all political parties to properly vet their candidates. There’s almost certainly another Jared O’Mara out there somewhere, who be sworn in as an MP in July.
https://x.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1795862063480234472
"@patrickkmaguire
EXC: Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle has told local activists he has been suspended by the party"
I'm not convinced everyone has tuned into the reality of an election taking place yet, usually the final 3 weeks, and the pollsters still have some questions on the mahoosive turnout estimates they're getting that are not matched by real votes.
My current guess is Labour gets 40-41% on the day and the Tories 28-29% with the LDs outperforming and Reform about 6-7%.
Why is it some otherwise intelligent people find it necessary to look the other way when someone from the party they support is on obvious dodgy ground? Oh, she is "working class" (people still believe in this archaic shit), so therefore she is something close to saintliness. Be more open minded. Maybe she made a mistake. Maybe she really is very stupid. Labour is going to make her deputy PM because she is "working class". There are going to be lots of lols!.
But I find you attempts to attack her desperate - firstly who on this site cares what you think
and secondly if you have dealt with broken families you will discover whole sets of very different situations that from the outside after don't make much sense but people make work..