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The next chapter of the Scottish play? – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,480
    edited May 2024

    One Downing Street insider called the 61- year-old Labour leader "Sleepy Keir", an apparent attempt to link him in the public's mind to the US's 81-year-old President Joe Biden, dubbed "Sleepy Joe" by Donald Trump. "Campaigns are tough, tiring things and it's understandable that he may be weary," said a Tory campaign official. "But being prime minister is a 24/7 job which requires stamina."

    https://x.com/JamesFitzJourno/status/1795015985461653708/photo/1

    They really are crap at politics. Starmer looks very good for somebody in their 60s (albeit he has got a bit chunkier in recent years). Sleepy is not a word I would ever equate with him.

    Where as Biden, you are never sure if he will actually make it to the end of a speech without the batteries running out and he spends large parts of the day not working as he is actually asleep.

    Trump is very good at these insults, but he A/B tests them at all the rallies he does. He is like a comedian testing out the gags, so when its Live at the Apollo time, he has the lines that worked the best ready to go.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    Electoral Calculus (rolls eyes) says Lab 29 SNP 16 Con 7 LD 5.
    My guess would be that that is probably not far off for Scotland.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,686
    Tres said:

    the legal sense
    Purdah officially began on Saturday, even though the official campaign doesn’t start until Thursday.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    kinabalu said:

    Just the hunky looks and air of stolid decency, I think.
    In politics the bar for ‘hunky’ is even lower that for ‘decency’ 😉
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,319
    edited May 2024

    What is a CoG limit and why must it be maintained?
    The Centre of Gravity of the aircraft. The FCS (flight control system) has a range of acceptable CoGs aft-to-forward that it can manage. If the CoG is outside limits then the behaviour of the FCS and hence the aircraft in pitch axis is probably going to be problematic. Putting 100 rounds in the gun of the F-16 is enough to move the CoG forward into those limits.

    You can't take the gun out of the Typhoon for the same reason though the RAF wanted to. They thought about putting a ballast in the gun bay instead but that worked out more expensive than just leaving the gun in.

    E2A: It also makes the aircraft easier to handle on the ground by putting more weight over the nose wheel. Except on the MiG-21 where nothing helps.
  • Tres said:

    the legal sense
    According to this document https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn05262/ the pre-election period of sensitivity (previously known as purdah) commenced on 25 May 2024.

    The 25 day official election countdown starts on Thursday when parliament is dissolved.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,480
    edited May 2024
    Ghedebrav said:

    In politics the bar for ‘hunky’ is even lower that for ‘decency’ 😉
    Need we forget the supposed politically engaged yuff getting all hot under the collar over Ed Miliband...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240

    Electoral Calculus (rolls eyes) says Lab 29 SNP 16 Con 7 LD 5.
    I would edge up the SNP seats a bit, and SLAB down a few but looks the right ballpark.
  • Carnyx said:

    Remember the argument over whether Jaffas were cakes or biscuits. Went all the way to high legal arbitration.
    That was, is and always will be about greedy transnational Big Food trying to avoid VAT on their UPF. The Pringles case always makes me smile.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,144
    Dura_Ace said:

    The Centre of Gravity of the aircraft. The FCS (flight control system) has a range of acceptable CoGs aft-to-forward that it can manage. If the CoG is outside limits then the behaviour of the FCS and hence the aircraft in pitch axis is probably going to be problematic. Putting 100 rounds in the gun of the F-16 is enough to move the CoG forward into those limits.

    You can't take the gun out of the Typhoon for the same reason though the RAF wanted to. They thought about putting a ballast in the gun bay instead but that worked out more expensive than just leaving the gun in.
    So if an F16 uses all its ammunition up, it falls out of the sky?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,284
    Heathener said:

    The George Eaton piece on ‘What is Starmerism?’ *

    https://www.newstatesman.com/cover-story/2024/05/what-is-starmerism


    * I’m pretty sure Keir Starmer would loathe the idea of ‘Starmerism’. That’s exactly what he doesn’t stand for.

    non-paywall: https://archive.is/pxSWa
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,984
    Foxy said:

    I would edge up the SNP seats a bit, and SLAB down a few but looks the right ballpark.
    I just put the raw %ages into their Scottish predictor. There are a lot of marginals.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240
    Dura_Ace said:

    The Centre of Gravity of the aircraft. The FCS (flight control system) has a range of acceptable CoGs aft-to-forward that it can manage. If the CoG is outside limits then the behaviour of the FCS and hence the aircraft in pitch axis is probably going to be problematic. Putting 100 rounds in the gun of the F-16 is enough to move the CoG forward into those limits.

    You can't take the gun out of the Typhoon for the same reason though the RAF wanted to. They thought about putting a ballast in the gun bay instead but that worked out more expensive than just leaving the gun in.

    E2A: It also makes the aircraft easier to handle on the ground by putting more weight over the nose wheel. Except on the MiG-21 where nothing helps.
    Presumably though you unbalance the CoG by firing the last 100 rounds.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562
    Eabhal said:

    So if an F16 uses all its ammunition up, it falls out of the sky?
    The most important thing with regards to CoG for fighter aircraft is the fuel. knowing which tanks have fuel, how much and actively moving fuel between tanks will be used to manage the CoG
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,319
    Eabhal said:

    So if an F16 uses all its ammunition up, it falls out of the sky?
    No, because it will have used up some fuel by then thus necessitating a whole other set of rebalancing maneuvers.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,171
    Scott_xP said:

    Apparently this is the real Richi, not the spoof one...

    @RishiSunak

    Not a single plan for the future.

    Our country needs bold action, not waffle.

    Quite right. American waffles have no place in the British National Tea Time.
  • .
    Ghedebrav said:

    I’ve never understood this debate. They are called ‘cakes’ and made of sponge.
    All about the VAT on luxury items. Big Food doesn't like VAT.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,329
    Eabhal said:

    So if an F16 uses all its ammunition up, it falls out of the sky?
    Ideally whatever the F-16 has expended all its ammunition on falls out of the sky.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Was thinking back yesterday to my votes in past General Elections:

    3 x Labour
    2 x Conservative
    2 x LibDem

    I guess that might baffle some of the partisan folk on here but I’m happy about it. I’ve voted Green at local level a number of times too.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Carnyx said:

    Remember the argument over whether Jaffas were cakes or biscuits. Went all the way to high legal arbitration.
    The real test is simple for anything that could only be either a cake or a biscuit.

    If it goes dryer/harder when left for a long time it's a cake;
    If it goes damper/softer when left for a long time it's a biscuit.

    I think this may be some physics law about entropy at work.

    Jaffa cakes are, of course, cakes under this rule. Rich tea biscuits are are the very paradigm of biscuits - you have to eat them all on opening or they liquify.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Scott_xP said:

    Apparently this is the real Richi, not the spoof one...

    @RishiSunak

    Not a single plan for the future.

    Our country needs bold action, not waffle.

    May I refer the honourable gentlemen to my comment at 9.21 this morning?

    It's a plan. Not much of one but its a plan.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,677

    Hang on, what about us tea-hating coffee drinkers? And will there be vegan options?
    A Conservative Party spokesperson has stated that coffee drinkers will not face custodial sentences if they refuse to drink tea.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,012
    Nigelb said:

    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    I mean one point is that the better you plan your campaign, the less hyperactive it needs to be. As your interventions land how you want them to, you're happy with you are in the polls - and you're not constantly having to be out there firefighting negative coverage.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    According to this document https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn05262/ the pre-election period of sensitivity (previously known as purdah) commenced on 25 May 2024.

    The 25 day official election countdown starts on Thursday when parliament is dissolved.
    Did anyone watch HIGNY on Friday? I wish I hadn’t bothered. The BBC had ordered them into impartiality but the result was anaemic.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,319
    In other F-16 news, Ukrainian Crew Training Plan C looks like it's finally coming together. Plan A was a multi-national centre in Romania. Nobody would pay for it. Plan B was Denmark which has gone very murky and produced no crew. Plan C is apparently Arizona ANG.

    https://www.airandspaceforces.com/first-ukrainian-pilots-graduate-us-f-16-training/

    End of the year, apparently. They can do the flyover at DJT's inauguration before they head east.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,712

    South Korea is an interesting case - by selling its weapons abroad, it keeps the production lines open and running. With a large quantity of inventory ready to go at any time.

    Which means that they are really, really ready. If the North goes South....
    I think it's the other way round with S Korea.
    It's only recently they've become such a large arms exporter, and that's on the back of having had to maintain arms development and manufacturing capacity to deal with the threat from the north.

    It helps that their economy is so heavily skewed towards manufacturing.

    But you're right that they're now reaping the benefits. With the exception of the KF21, which hasn't yet attracted any significant partners.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    Nigelb said:

    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Dura_Ace said:

    F-16 always flies with at least 100 rounds in the gun to maintain CoG limits so "Lucky" Penney wasn't totally unarmed as the legend now has it. However, that might not have been enough to bring down UA93 (M61 will do 100 rounds in one second) so a Sonderkommando Elbe style ramming attack was always a possibility. Aim for the cockpit and bang out at the last second. Home for tea and medals.
    It says here you can limit bursts to 2 rounds. So with an unarmed opponent you can go round 50 times trying to shoot him through the windscreen. Unnerving even if you miss.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    Heathener said:

    Was thinking back yesterday to my votes in past General Elections:

    3 x Labour
    2 x Conservative
    2 x LibDem

    I guess that might baffle some of the partisan folk on here but I’m happy about it. I’ve voted Green at local level a number of times too.

    "When the facts change, I change my mind."

    I'm baffled by people who vote the same way their entire life, tbh. At that point, you're just supporting your favourite football team, not casting a sensible vote on who is best suited to run the country.

    Parties also change over time. I could vote for the economically and social liberal Conservatives of Cameron's era. You wouldn't catch me dead voting for the bunch of batshit crazy authoritarians running the Tories now.

    Like others downthread I am concerned that Labour in power will trend towards authoritarianism. Not out of malice, but because they believe in the benevolence of the state. I don't believe in that, so I'll never find a natural home in Labour. But I sure as heck don't have one in the modern Conservative Party, either.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563
    Nigelb said:

    I think it's the other way round with S Korea.
    It's only recently they've become such a large arms exporter, and that's on the back of having had to maintain arms development and manufacturing capacity to deal with the threat from the north.

    It helps that their economy is so heavily skewed towards manufacturing.

    But you're right that they're now reaping the benefits. With the exception of the KF21, which hasn't yet attracted any significant partners.
    One way and another the two Koreas are turning into major arms suppliers. What happens if they both run out of customers?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,686
    In the new seat of Kensington and Bayswater, I see that running are both Emma Dent Coad as an independent, and a Workers Party candidate, Garry Cattle. Dent Coad was the former Labour MP for the predecessor Kensington constituency 2017-9. She’s a Corbynite and left the Labour Party last year.

    Why on Earth are the Workers Party and Coad running against each other? This is why I think the impact of the Workers Party will be very limited. A new party that could embrace Dent Coad, Corbyn and Galloway, that might do well in places. Hard left candidates standing against each other, no chance.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,012
    Foxy said:

    I don't think he plays each week any more, but the sleepy Keir nickname won't stick.

    He is just pacing himself and preparing well, not throwing ideas from the random policy generator without prepping his own team.

    He has a remorseless, meticulous well briefed plan and will stick to it as far as he can.
    He was still playing every week in February. No doubt Labour will put him on a 5 a side pitch at some point.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/keir-starmer-will-find-90-32240687
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,319
    MJW said:

    He was still playing every week in February. No doubt Labour will put him on a 5 a side pitch at some point.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/keir-starmer-will-find-90-32240687
    Rishi can be the corner flag.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562
    Heathener said:

    Was thinking back yesterday to my votes in past General Elections:

    3 x Labour
    2 x Conservative
    2 x LibDem

    I guess that might baffle some of the partisan folk on here but I’m happy about it. I’ve voted Green at local level a number of times too.

    I've never lived in a location where my vote has made a difference. I've lived in very labour areas (both MP and Council) and very Tory areas (both MP and council). So I've done all sorts over the years including putting back the vote blank.

    This time I've got a choice between
    * my local labour councillor (who should win comfortably)
    * Chris Williamson (yes that one) for the WPGB
    * Tory
    * reform
    * Green (good luck with that in the constituency which contains Rolls-Royce)
    * Lib Dem (TBC)

    not sure what I'll do this time. I may mark multiple candidates or draw a 'none of the above box)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    edited May 2024

    In the new seat of Kensington and Bayswater, I see that running are both Emma Dent Coad as an independent, and a Workers Party candidate, Garry Cattle. Dent Coad was the former Labour MP for the predecessor Kensington constituency 2017-9. She’s a Corbynite and left the Labour Party last year.

    Why on Earth are the Workers Party and Coad running against each other? This is why I think the impact of the Workers Party will be very limited. A new party that could embrace Dent Coad, Corbyn and Galloway, that might do well in places. Hard left candidates standing against each other, no chance.

    Because they are almost the antithesis of each other on social issues?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,686

    In the new seat of Kensington and Bayswater, I see that running are both Emma Dent Coad as an independent, and a Workers Party candidate, Garry Cattle. Dent Coad was the former Labour MP for the predecessor Kensington constituency 2017-9. She’s a Corbynite and left the Labour Party last year.

    Why on Earth are the Workers Party and Coad running against each other? This is why I think the impact of the Workers Party will be very limited. A new party that could embrace Dent Coad, Corbyn and Galloway, that might do well in places. Hard left candidates standing against each other, no chance.

    But in Holborn & St Pancras, the Workers Party is supporting the independent Corbynite, Andrew Feinstein. That makes more sense, but it still shows the party’s weakness that Feinstein would rather run as an independent than as the official Workers Party candidate.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,144
    Now that would be a story. Imagine Charles inviting Sir Keir and Meghan to Buck House.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    Good morning

    I am sitting a lot of this debate out as, frankly, in a few weeks we will have a majority Starmer led government and for that Sunak deservers a lot of credit for 'biting the bullet' and lighting the touch paper to bring the curtain down on a divided, weary, and flawed conservative party (and it saddens me as on previous occasions at election time I have been an active member, but no longer)

    I have no idea how Starmer will govern but he faces enormous problems which I genuinely do not think he has the courage or idea how to resolve, other than to plead for two terms which as we know is ambitious as the public want answers now especially on the NHS

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,144
    Eabhal said:

    Now that would be a story. Imagine Charles inviting Sir Keir and Meghan to Buck House.
    Look at the top comment. I think Dura_Ace lives in Chadlington.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,168

    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I don't disagree with you - I am no massive SKS fan
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,508
    edited May 2024

    Good morning

    I am sitting a lot of this debate out as, frankly, in a few weeks we will have a majority Starmer led government and for that Sunak deservers a lot of credit for 'biting the bullet' and lighting the touch paper to bring the curtain down on a divided, weary, and flawed conservative party (and it saddens me as on previous occasions at election time I have been an active member, but no longer)

    I have no idea how Starmer will govern but he faces enormous problems which I genuinely do not think he has the courage or idea how to resolve, other than to plead for two terms which as we know is ambitious as the public want answers now especially on the NHS

    Sunak deserves credit for calling an election he's only called because he thinks it's his best shot? You Tories'll believe any old shite.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,686
    dixiedean said:

    Because they are almost the antithesis of each other on social issues?
    Well, indeed, although the Workers Party is backing candidates who share similar views to Dent Coad on social issues in other constituencies. But, yes, that’s my point. The hard left are much less of a threat to the Labour Party while they can’t agree on so many positions. A pro-Gaza, Corbynite party would have more impact, but a socially conservative Galloway vehicle and a bunch of independents will struggle to gather any momentum.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,734
    edited May 2024

    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    I’m looking forward to seeing criticisms that are based on reality rather than make believe. Which is why I find all the current SKS / Labour will do ABC things so funny because until we see Labour’s manifesto we don’t have a clue what will be done and what will be a priority…

    And I suspect the first 6 months I’ll be firefighting the forthcoming disasters such as university finance, immigration ….
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    Well, indeed, although the Workers Party is backing candidates who share similar views to Dent Coad on social issues in other constituencies. But, yes, that’s my point. The hard left are much less of a threat to the Labour Party while they can’t agree on so many positions. A pro-Gaza, Corbynite party would have more impact, but a socially conservative Galloway vehicle and a bunch of independents will struggle to gather any momentum.
    This has ever been the case.
    For a comparison, contrast the official economic policies of Reform, and the views on public spending of those intending to vote for them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029

    Sunak deserves credit for calling an election he's only called because he thinks it's his best shot? You Tories'll believe any old shite.
    No - he never had a chance of winning and the conservative party urgently needs to go into opposition
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,596

    The 4% for Reform looks a bit whiffy. The mind boggles at the type of candidates they’ll dig up (literally?) for Scotland.
    Annie Wells MSP would be an ideal fit for Reform. However, the Tories bagged her first.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    edited May 2024
    spudgfsh said:

    I've never lived in a location where my vote has made a difference. I've lived in very labour areas (both MP and Council) and very Tory areas (both MP and council). So I've done all sorts over the years including putting back the vote blank.

    This time I've got a choice between
    * my local labour councillor (who should win comfortably)
    * Chris Williamson (yes that one) for the WPGB
    * Tory
    * reform
    * Green (good luck with that in the constituency which contains Rolls-Royce)
    * Lib Dem (TBC)

    not sure what I'll do this time. I may mark multiple candidates or draw a 'none of the above box)
    It seems quite polarised by area looking at Councillors.

    Are the 5 (iicc: if I count correctly) for Reform Derby part of Reform UK?

    And who are the 3 Independents?

    Will you miss Ma Beckett (and her conservatory)?
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,589

    Good morning

    I am sitting a lot of this debate out as, frankly, in a few weeks we will have a majority Starmer led government and for that Sunak deservers a lot of credit for 'biting the bullet' and lighting the touch paper to bring the curtain down on a divided, weary, and flawed conservative party (and it saddens me as on previous occasions at election time I have been an active member, but no longer)

    I have no idea how Starmer will govern but he faces enormous problems which I genuinely do not think he has the courage or idea how to resolve, other than to plead for two terms which as we know is ambitious as the public want answers now especially on the NHS

    In Wales, of course, Tory MPs may lose their seats because of the inadequacies of the NHS while the actual perpetrators are hiding in Cardiff Bay.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    In the new seat of Kensington and Bayswater, I see that running are both Emma Dent Coad as an independent, and a Workers Party candidate, Garry Cattle. Dent Coad was the former Labour MP for the predecessor Kensington constituency 2017-9. She’s a Corbynite and left the Labour Party last year.

    Why on Earth are the Workers Party and Coad running against each other? This is why I think the impact of the Workers Party will be very limited. A new party that could embrace Dent Coad, Corbyn and Galloway, that might do well in places. Hard left candidates standing against each other, no chance.

    T’were ever thus, no? Since the Judean People’s Front, if not before.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029

    In Wales, of course, Tory MPs may lose their seats because of the inadequacies of the NHS while the actual perpetrators are hiding in Cardiff Bay.
    And that is so true and such an irony
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,589

    Sunak deserves credit for calling an election he's only called because he thinks it's his best shot? You Tories'll believe any old shite.
    I'm looking forward to Sunak's concession speech. "Another six months and we'd have cracked it."
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,596
    Dura_Ace said:

    Rishi can be the corner flag.
    Rishi can be the ball. Kicked by both sides.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    edited May 2024
    dixiedean said:

    Because they are almost the antithesis of each other on social issues?
    You’re not suggesting a merger of the People’s Front with the Popular Front?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    edited May 2024
    kyf_100 said:

    "When the facts change, I change my mind."

    I'm baffled by people who vote the same way their entire life, tbh. At that point, you're just supporting your favourite football team, not casting a sensible vote on who is best suited to run the country.

    Parties also change over time. I could vote for the economically and social liberal Conservatives of Cameron's era. You wouldn't catch me dead voting for the bunch of batshit crazy authoritarians running the Tories now.

    Like others downthread I am concerned that Labour in power will trend towards authoritarianism. Not out of malice, but because they believe in the benevolence of the state. I don't believe in that, so I'll never find a natural home in Labour. But I sure as heck don't have one in the modern Conservative Party, either.
    Quite right. This time around I will vote Labour and it will be the first time I do so in a GE (I have gone with them recently in the locals too).

    I have voted LD, but mostly Tory, at GEs before.

    I’m not convinced Labour are going to be able to offer me a permanent political home but they are by far the best proposition this time around.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    edited May 2024
    Dura_Ace said:

    In other F-16 news, Ukrainian Crew Training Plan C looks like it's finally coming together. Plan A was a multi-national centre in Romania. Nobody would pay for it. Plan B was Denmark which has gone very murky and produced no crew. Plan C is apparently Arizona ANG.

    https://www.airandspaceforces.com/first-ukrainian-pilots-graduate-us-f-16-training/

    End of the year, apparently. They can do the flyover at DJT's inauguration before they head east.

    Good time to test a glide bomb, perhaps?

    "We are using the big version, tovarisch, so it won't bounce off the wig."
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,686
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw88ewqjxd1o

    Australian scientists discover ancient 'echidnapus'
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782

    Not only he is tremendously sexy, but he can cure Scrofula by his touch as well.
    True story: I once had scrofula in the shape of Lembit Opik’s face on my left testicle

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302

    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    eek said:

    I’m looking forward to seeing criticisms that are based on reality rather than make believe. Which is why I find all the current SKS / Labour will do ABC things so funny because until we see Labour’s manifesto we don’t have a clue what will be done and what will be a priority…

    And I suspect the first 6 months I’ll be firefighting the forthcoming disasters such as university finance, immigration ….
    We probably won't know even then.

    As far as we know the man is an empty vessel, except what policies he has announced so far are shit so all we have to go is his character, temperament and past and that tells me he's a typical North London Lefty. It also tells me he's not particularly trustworthy, and most of who and what he finds inconvenient he junks within weeks. I really don't like how he's treated Rosie Duffield. I find the man utterly disingenuous.

    I expect him to overtax the private sector to expand the public, at little benefit to output, follow as open a policy on immigration as he can, take a scythe to the constitution, do whatever he can to reverse Brexit, promote Wokery and increase borrowing.

    Of course, some people will quite like all that.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243
    Eabhal said:

    Look at the top comment. I think Dura_Ace lives in Chadlington.
    "Chaddington" sadly, not Chadlington.

    Jeremy Clarkson and David Cameron live in Chadlington, give or take a couple of miles (Clarkson in a farm on the outskirts, Cameron in the neighbouring hamlet of Dean).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    edited May 2024
    Can anyone beat that? Has anyone else had an unusual skin condition with a strange name that formed a simulacrum of the face of a barely remembered political figure on a particularly intimate part of their anatomy?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,144
    Leon said:

    Can anyone beat that? Has anyone else had an unusual skin condition with a strange name that formed a simulacrum of the face of a barely remembered political figure on a particularly intimate part of their anatomy?

    I preferred the holiday pics
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,712
    .
    Dura_Ace said:

    In other F-16 news, Ukrainian Crew Training Plan C looks like it's finally coming together. Plan A was a multi-national centre in Romania. Nobody would pay for it. Plan B was Denmark which has gone very murky and produced no crew. Plan C is apparently Arizona ANG.

    https://www.airandspaceforces.com/first-ukrainian-pilots-graduate-us-f-16-training/

    End of the year, apparently. They can do the flyover at DJT's inauguration before they head east.

    There are various recent reports.
    The handful of new pilots trained here are starting on fast jets in France.
    https://english.nv.ua/nation/10-young-pilots-undergo-training-in-france-to-master-f-16-50413056.html

    Presumably a training capability more independent of the US will develop over time.
    Part and parcel of the increase in European defence spending.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    Leon said:

    Can anyone beat that? Has anyone else had an unusual skin condition with a strange name that formed a simulacrum of the face of a barely remembered political figure on a particularly intimate part of their anatomy?

    Just a reminder, Leon.

    Your photo quota today is zero :wink:
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562
    MattW said:

    It seems quite polarised by area looking at Councillors.

    Are the 5 (iicc: if I count correctly) for Reform Derby part of Reform UK?

    And who are the 3 Independents?

    Will you miss Ma Beckett (and her conservatory)?
    Alan Graves (Reform Derby) was UKIP so I think they are Reform but just using a different name for the ballot. I don't know much about the independents as they're not my area.

    The betting question is how much of the labour majority was personal vote for Margaret Beckett and how much was block labour voting. it should be an east hold for Labour unless
    * WPGB takes votes of Labour due to the Gaza position (didn't have locals this year so we don't know if it will be an issue)
    * Some of Baggy Shanker's past comes back to haunt him. I'd say specifics but don't want to be done for libel (even though if it's true it can't be libel).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,712

    One way and another the two Koreas are turning into major arms suppliers. What happens if they both run out of customers?
    S Korea isn't going to run out of Middle East or European customers for the rest of this decade, whatever happens in Ukraine.
    And in any even they are even larger non military exporters.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Leon said:

    True story: I once had scrofula in the shape of Lembit Opik’s face on my left testicle

    Sounds like your usual dodgy bollocks to me.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    edited May 2024
    MattW said:

    It seems quite polarised by area looking at Councillors.

    Are the 5 (iicc: if I count correctly) for Reform Derby part of Reform UK?

    And who are the 3 Independents?

    Will you miss Ma Beckett (and her conservatory)?
    Explication:

    La Beckett was *not* one of the expenses puritans. There's some seriously astonishing stuff claimed there as essential to do the job in Westminster - starting with £13k in 2002 money for things like paving a drive and replacing part of the roof on the constituency house.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5588020/Margaret-Beckett-claimed-three-more-times-for-hanging-baskets-on-MPs-expenses.html
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563

    We probably won't know even then.

    As far as we know the man is an empty vessel, except what policies he has announced so far are shit so all we have to go is his character, temperament and past and that tells me he's a typical North London Lefty. It also tells me he's not particularly trustworthy, and most of who and what he finds inconvenient he junks within weeks. I really don't like how he's treated Rosie Duffield. I find the man utterly disingenuous.

    I expect him to overtax the private sector to expand the public, at little benefit to output, follow as open a policy on immigration as he can, take a scythe to the constitution, do whatever he can to reverse Brexit, promote Wokery and increase borrowing.

    Of course, some people will quite like all that.

    Sounds good to me! Apart from taking a scythe to the constitution, although bringing back the FTPA and scrapping photo ID might be good. I doubt very much if he’ll bring in Electoral Reform, but that would be good, too!
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,012

    But in Holborn & St Pancras, the Workers Party is supporting the independent Corbynite, Andrew Feinstein. That makes more sense, but it still shows the party’s weakness that Feinstein would rather run as an independent than as the official Workers Party candidate.
    That's a feature not a bug of the far left though. They don't actually agree on an awful lot beyond dislike of mainstream Labour and (these days) Israel.

    Corbynism was rare in that it took more or less all in - and even then Galloway was too toxic when running as Labour - as buried hatchets for a shot at the big time.

    Which proved a strength - as for once the far left, ultra-progressive types had a rallying point even if in practice had completely incompatible views - and a weakness as it was always quite easy to point to the foul cranks Jeremy and others had embraced over the years as part of 'no enemies on the left'.

    It's he basic problem the far left has. To get to a certain point it has to embrace some really terrible people and cranks. That then come back to haunt it when it tries to go mainstream.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,526

    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    18h
    Donald Trump’s campaign raised more money ($76 million) than Joe Biden’s last month.

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    MattW said:

    Just a reminder, Leon.

    Your photo quota today is zero :wink:
    A cousin of mine who worked at Halford’s suffered a sporadic but sharp case of vitiligo where the unmistakeable image of Donald Dewer making a speech would appear on his buttocks, but only during the winter
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,712

    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    What projections ?
    I'm forecasting nothing for the next Labour government. It could be anything from a moderate success to a disaster.

    The only thing I'm reasonably certain of is that the Tories are done. And are unlikely to improve much in opposition for the foreseeable future.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955

    I do find it amusing when people who voted for Brexit despair about where the Cameroon Tory Party went and the fact it's been displaced by a bunch of cranks. What did you honestly expect to happen?
    For starters, Cameron could have stayed on rather than resign immediately.

    A centrist party might have said - well, the vote was 52/48, leaving the country deeply divided, so a compromise such as remaining inside the single market or customs union might have been sought.

    An even more interesting question might be - why did Labour go along with the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty without a referendum? And why did Ireland make its citizens vote twice until they got the right answer?

    I'm a democrat, and a liberal - although not a Liberal Democrat, har har. The UK post 2016 hasn't matched my values, but neither did the EU (or Labour) before it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,329
    FF43 said:

    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Leon said:

    Can anyone beat that? Has anyone else had an unusual skin condition with a strange name that formed a simulacrum of the face of a barely remembered political figure on a particularly intimate part of their anatomy?

    A rogue NHS surgeon laser-etched a miniature caricature of Liz truss on one of my kidneys. Should have gone with Nuffield.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    FF43 said:

    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    I have seen plenty of it: here, and in some media quarters. I don’t deny some people’s opinions are more nuanced (including my own) - that is exactly why I said it comes from some quarters only.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    spudgfsh said:

    Alan Graves (Reform Derby) was UKIP so I think they are Reform but just using a different name for the ballot. I don't know much about the independents as they're not my area.

    The betting question is how much of the labour majority was personal vote for Margaret Beckett and how much was block labour voting. it should be an east hold for Labour unless
    * WPGB takes votes of Labour due to the Gaza position (didn't have locals this year so we don't know if it will be an issue)
    * Some of Baggy Shanker's past comes back to haunt him. I'd say specifics but don't want to be done for libel (even though if it's true it can't be libel).
    Reading in detail I see that Alan Graves is Mayor of Derby.

    Wow. That means the Tories voted for him.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,329
    Leon said:

    A cousin of mine who worked at Halford’s suffered a sporadic but sharp case of vitiligo where the unmistakeable image of Donald Dewer making a speech would appear on his buttocks, but only during the winter
    A certain part of my anatomy resembles Anas Sarwar, nominative determinism in action!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Loose women poll

    Should we bring back National Service

    Yes 30%

    No 70%
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562
    MattW said:

    Reading in detail I see that Alan Graves is Mayor of Derby.

    Wow. That means the Tories voted for him.
    The local labour group weren't happy. (https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/derby-news/who-new-mayor-derby-walkout-8467271)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Sunak on Starmer: We need action, not waffle

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-69063295

    That's the trouble with PM Starmer - he's done nothing. (Apart from close a few private schools apparently.)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,329
    Ken Burns not mincing his words. Unfortunately I fear that the folk addicted to opioid Trump won't be listening.

    https://x.com/jason_kint/status/1794573782130344300
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,686

    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    You can think someone sexy without believing they’re a good politician or agreeing with their policies. I think Steve Baker is a hunk and Nadine Dorries a hottie, but I strongly disagree with their politics.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    Nigelb said:

    What projections ?
    I'm forecasting nothing for the next Labour government. It could be anything from a moderate success to a disaster.

    The only thing I'm reasonably certain of is that the Tories are done. And are unlikely to improve much in opposition for the foreseeable future.
    Maybe we'll surprise you.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,359
    Nigelb said:

    .

    There are various recent reports.
    The handful of new pilots trained here are starting on fast jets in France.
    https://english.nv.ua/nation/10-young-pilots-undergo-training-in-france-to-master-f-16-50413056.html

    Presumably a training capability more independent of the US will develop over time.
    Part and parcel of the increase in European defence spending.
    Don't expect @Dura_Ace to have accurate intel on these matters. I'm also surprised that someone who claims to have been involved in the military is surprised that the number of combatants produced for an active conflict is 'murky'.. ;)

    https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/05/24/ukrainian-f-16-pilots-stand-ready-unknown-number-of-pilots-return/

    +others.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    So that’s TWO people just on PB - or known to PB - who’ve had slightly embarrassing skin problems with peculiar names where the symptomology includes bizarrely accurate images of relatively forgotten political figures like Sir Francis Pym (later The Lord Pym of Sandy in Bedfordshire) of appearing to form on their genitals or related areas so it’s obviously a lot more common than people realise and we need to talk about it so sufferers don’t feel cruelly stigmatised as they did in the past
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    edited May 2024
    viewcode said:

    FPT

    I must sadly agree. One of the really sad things we have done over the past decades is to blur the line between children and adults, with the inevitable infantilized adults. Education is a process designed to enable children to become independent when they achieve adulthood, so that they can get a job, form relationships, have children of their own, buy a house, and raise them. By pushing each stage back into their 20s and 30s we are disabling them.

    Your apprenticeships idea is a good one and would help cure this problem.

    We already have an Apprenticeship Tax raising ~£3bn a year, running at 0.5% of annual pay bill for employers paying more than £3m a year in payroll.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pay-apprenticeship-levy
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    Loose women poll

    Should we bring back National Service

    Yes 30%

    No 70%

    I did wonder about the effect of NS on the 'mum's vote'. Not a parent myself I can't really say but do parents of teenage children really want their kids lives being dictated in this way?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,686

    Ken Burns not mincing his words. Unfortunately I fear that the folk addicted to opioid Trump won't be listening.

    https://x.com/jason_kint/status/1794573782130344300

    You wouldn’t want to mince such sesquipedalian words! But I agree with him entirely.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,712

    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    De gustibus, etc.

    I can't honestly think of any politician I'd ever describe as sexy.
This discussion has been closed.