The next chapter of the Scottish play? – politicalbetting.com

System · May 27

The next chapter of the Scottish play? – politicalbetting.com

The Telegraph are reporting that

Read the full story here

geoffw · May 27

Umm

megasaur · May 27

Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?

Carnyx · May 27

Mm. What do you have in mind specifically re the Scottish rules, please?

Casino_Royale · May 27

I think there are some very interesting bets on Scottish constituencies.

DougSeal · May 27

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?

It would be mad if that applied to prosecutors. Taking to its absurd extreme, if a member of the cabinet was suspected of being a serial killer during a campaign, the idea that the prosecution should hold off charging until the election would be a little dangerous.

I don’t know the history in Scotland but the Met Police used to instruct solicitors and attorneys (there were such things in England back then) in private practice to draw up indictments. They took the work in house eventually before it was spun out again to the CPS in the 80s. So the work itself, down here anyway, is not historically civil service work.

DecrepiterJohnL · May 27

Although it is fun to imagine a Canadian-style Tory meltdown, a more interesting betting market might be LibDem vs SNP for third place, as most seat forecasts have both in the low 20s.

SandyRentool · May 27

"Starmer hasn't said anything" say the Tories. Prior to Starmer making his speech.

Well he hasn't had to reassure voters that their kids won't be sent to prison, that much is true.

TheScreamingEagles · May 27

Carnyx said:
Mm. What do you have in mind specifically re the Scottish rules, please?

IIRC

In Scotland sub judice rules kick in at the point of arrest and before charges. if any.

In E&W generally sub judice kicks in after the defendant is charged.

Foxy · May 27

Casino_Royale said:
I think there are some very interesting bets on Scottish constituencies.

Yes, I have had a nibble on SLAB on some of the Bet365 constituency markets.

wooliedyed · May 27

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?

Purdah is more in respect of publicity put out or issued. If Civil servants could not do anything which was policy for one party but not another, governance would grind to a halt in a campaign.

Benpointer · May 27

FPT:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

pigeon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

pigeon said:

Andy_JS said:
"'National Service would instil sense of duty in young Brits, says Veterans’ Minister Johnny Mercer

Mercer has blasted critics of the scheme, such as the BBC"

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28147705/national-service-sense-duty-johnny-mercer/
That's a very long list of critics, including the ex-chiefs of the Army and the Navy, a former Conservative defence secretary, and a defence minister in his own Government speaking just before the policy was invented. Utter lunacy.
If Sunak bans smoking where will he find the cigarette packets on which he composes his policies?
I seriously doubt that Sunak uses cigarette packets. Envelopes seem more like his thing.
One for the memoirs is how, where and why Rishi's national service policy arose.

Someone yesterday was suggesting Hague has been working on this policy for some time. I haven't seen any evidence of that and would be surprised tbh.

Flatlander · May 27

Morning all. Off to do some non-compulsory volunteering...

Farooq · May 27

FPT:

Carnyx said:

Foxy said:

Carnyx said:

El_Capitano said:

Farooq said:

Cicero said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Gardenwalker said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
I was reasonably confident when the GE was called that the Tories would eventually poll 30% with a enough scare the horses attacks on Starmer, stick with nurse as economy is turning corner and standard Tory type offering.

Seems highly unlikely now.
Closer to 20 than 30 I think is now possible. 25 if they do well.
What is the lowest Tory score in modern history?
If modern is since 1918, it's 31% for Major in 1997. In 1832 the Tories polled 29.2% under Wellington.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1832_United_Kingdom_general_election
Yeah they are going to beat that to the downside this time around.
Unfortunately if the first non white PM gets the lowest voteshare for his party since universal suffrage I fear that kills off the likelihood of an ethnic minority leader leading the Conservatives again for a generation. It probably doesn't help the chances of non white potential Labour leaders either
I really don't think Sunak being non-white is effecting the Tory vote share. Unfortunately, rightly or wrongly, having a incredibly wealthy PM at the moment isn't a good look, which isn't help by his gaffes where he looks very out of touch. That's before we get to the inflation, interest rates, Brexit, and awful campaign.
Agree. I often forget that Sunak is the first non-white PM. It’s hardly ever remarked upon.
One one hand, this says very good things about today's Britain the British, individually and collectively.

On other hand, it speaks ill of Rishi Sunak's seeming inability to get any boost let alone traction from his historic status; unlike Margaret Thatcher who clearly DID get a bump from being the first woman PM, all while NOT dwelling on it herself - just doing it.

Part and parcel of his under-performance as a politico, in No. 10 or on the campaign trail.

Re: the first point, think the same is true of conservative Republicans who are willing and able to vote for and actually elect fellow conservatives who are People of Color (as well say in the USA) as Governors, Senators and even Presidents & Vice Presidents.

My own observation, is that, at least in US, voters do NOT object to minority-group candidates who sometimes talk about their heritage and ethnicity, religion, national origin, and occasionally act upon it. For example, when Nikki Haley ordered the lowering of the Confederate flag in South Carolina and Tim Scott strongly supported this. Local and national conservatives, including Trump supporters, mostly also supported or at least went along.

As for White progressives & liberals, they are very open to electing minority candidates, indeed many would prefer to vote for a Black, Asian, Native American, Muslim, etc. candidate if that's a resonable option; indeed, can be a big help in a crowded field and/or tight race.
Sunak's problem, and Britsin's for that matter, is not racism. It is classism. We've had quite enough of the posh, English public schoolboy being in charge.
People seem to state this with a lot of confidence, but I'm not so sure. It's kinda hard to gather evidence for this, since if you directly ask someone whether they would downgrade a candidate due to their ethnicity, they will say no, even if they would.

It's 100% certain that there are SOME people whose vote will be affected by racism. But how do you quantify it?
And is there an opposite effect - do more Hindus vote for Sunak than you’d otherwise expect? I don’t know but it should be measurable by polling.
Not disagreeing, but not easy to measure. We don't vote for PMs but MPs. Just think of Leicester. Is a vote for the Tories there for the local MP or Mr S?
Sunak is popular with some Hindus in Leicester, less so with Sikhs and Muslims. I have a few Hindu colleagues who think him great, but they were all Tory voters already.

It's a bit hard to disentangle from some of the other voting trends locally, including the Hindutva vs Muslim protests a couple of years back, and Soulsbys purge of Labour councillors., but some positive benefit.

I think there is some racism against Sunak driving the Reform vote, but only counting for a couple of percent.
Thanks. Regrettable, the latter point. Though two percentage points comprise a fair chunk of the Reform vote - and not to be sneezed at if one is a Tory at present.

Where are all these numbers coming from, though? How do we measure the effect of racism on the vote. 0%, 2%, 10%? Any figure given has to be based on something, surely?

Benpointer · May 27

Flatlander said:
Morning all. Off to do some non-compulsory volunteering...

That doesn't count - it has to be volpulsory compulteering.

ydoethur · May 27

Casino_Royale said:
I think there are some very interesting bets on Scottish constituencies.

The SNP have sunk by a lot more than the Tories.

Could that see seats such as Ayr and Aberdeen South come into play for the Tories? Or will they leak so many votes to Labour that it's irrelevant?

Farooq · May 27

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:
Mm. What do you have in mind specifically re the Scottish rules, please?
IIRC

In Scotland sub judice rules kick in at the point of arrest and before charges. if any.

In E&W generally sub judice kicks in after the defendant is charged.

I parsed the question asking what are the limits on what can be said, as opposed to the time they come into force. If not, that's the question I have. What can't we talk about?

bondegezou · May 27

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?

None of the people who may be charged are standing in the election.

Justice delayed is justice denied. The process should continue as normal, irrespective of any election.

Scott_xP · May 27

@robfordmancs
Let’s take stock…

Late on Saturday night on a bank holiday weekend, our PM announced a policy which is so obviously a combo of “superficially appealing but utterly mad” that there is a whole episode of our nation’s best loved political satire in which the Minister proposes exactly this policy and the civil servant has to manoeuvre him out of it because it is utterly mad.

That episode also featured a satire of polling that so accurately skewers the concept of leading questions that many academics (including me) have used it in our methods lectures.

It turns out that the think tank promoting the utterly mad policy, and now taking credit for it, asked leading questions that look almost exactly the same as the Yes Minister ones, in order to demonstrate the public loved it.

Never in a million years would I have imagined that the opening weekend of a do or die campaign from supposedly the most formidable election winning machine in the Western world would be “Do a Yes Minister episode but for real this time.”

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1794859316354121816

megasaur · May 27

DougSeal said:

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?
It would be mad if that applied to prosecutors. Taking to its absurd extreme, if a member of the cabinet was suspected of being a serial killer during a campaign, the idea that the prosecution should hold off charging until the election would be a little dangerous.

I don’t know the history in Scotland but the Met Police used to instruct solicitors and attorneys (there were such things in England back then) in private practice to draw up indictments. They took the work in house eventually before it was spun out again to the CPS in the 80s. So the work itself, down here anyway, is not historically civil service work.

Not "historically" sure. But it is now - calling yourself the Crown Office is a pretty balls out admission of civil service status by the sound of it.

You can arrest your serial killer but hold off charging him till after polling day

Ironic that sks got his first big break by turning charging decision announcements into showbiz. Always despised him for that

Scott_xP · May 27

@kateferguson4

It’s bank holiday Monday but no let up on the election campaign trail

🚨Keir Starmer makes pitch on trust & security with first big speech this am

🔈Rishi Sunak will get a grilling from journos on national service plan

🚌 Lib Dem’s launching battle bus

Eabhal · May 27

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:
Mm. What do you have in mind specifically re the Scottish rules, please?
IIRC

In Scotland sub judice rules kick in at the point of arrest and before charges. if any.

In E&W generally sub judice kicks in after the defendant is charged.

But Sturgeon has already been arrested?

#nothinghaschanged

CarlottaVance · May 27

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:
Mm. What do you have in mind specifically re the Scottish rules, please?
IIRC

In Scotland sub judice rules kick in at the point of arrest and before charges. if any.

In E&W generally sub judice kicks in after the defendant is charged.

Recent developments in the world of Scottish politics lead me to issue the usual reminder: contempt of court protections are triggered, in Scotland, once an arrest is made. Please take care.

https://x.com/roddyqc/status/1643537760521781253

SandyRentool · May 27

Benpointer said:
FPT:
DecrepiterJohnL said:

pigeon said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

pigeon said:

Andy_JS said:
"'National Service would instil sense of duty in young Brits, says Veterans’ Minister Johnny Mercer

Mercer has blasted critics of the scheme, such as the BBC"

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28147705/national-service-sense-duty-johnny-mercer/
That's a very long list of critics, including the ex-chiefs of the Army and the Navy, a former Conservative defence secretary, and a defence minister in his own Government speaking just before the policy was invented. Utter lunacy.
If Sunak bans smoking where will he find the cigarette packets on which he composes his policies?
I seriously doubt that Sunak uses cigarette packets. Envelopes seem more like his thing.
One for the memoirs is how, where and why Rishi's national service policy arose.
Someone yesterday was suggesting Hague has been working on this policy for some time. I haven't seen any evidence of that and would be surprised tbh.

Perhaps Sunak was inspired after watching some reruns of Get Some In on UK Gold?

wooliedyed · May 27

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:
I think there are some very interesting bets on Scottish constituencies.
The SNP have sunk by a lot more than the Tories.

Could that see seats such as Ayr and Aberdeen South come into play for the Tories? Or will they leak so many votes to Labour that it's irrelevant?

Ayr looks a three way, the higher Lab go the more likely it becomes a Lab/SNP fight. Perthshire is one to watch. Aberdeen South interesting as is Angus and Argyll and Bute

DavidL · May 27

Our sub judice rules can be very helpful to politicians who don't want to talk about something. I am absolutely sure the SNP don't want to talk about Branchform.

But, it is yet another demonstration of the adverse consequences of such incredibly prolonged investigations. Sooner or later you will bump into an election.

CarlottaVance · May 27

Eabhal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:
Mm. What do you have in mind specifically re the Scottish rules, please?
IIRC

In Scotland sub judice rules kick in at the point of arrest and before charges. if any.

In E&W generally sub judice kicks in after the defendant is charged.
But Sturgeon has already been arrested?

#nothinghaschanged

I’d forgotten that:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65871857

Eabhal · May 27

Flatlander said:
Morning all. Off to do some non-compulsory volunteering...

It doesn't count if you enjoy it.

The latest research suggests even the pyramids didn't require compulsory volunteering.

megasaur · May 27

wooliedyed said:

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?
Purdah is more in respect of publicity put out or issued. If Civil servants could not do anything which was policy for one party but not another, governance would grind to a halt in a campaign.

OK. But I heard someone vaguely credible sounding say on the radio that a Rwanda flight could not take off during the campaign, even if all ducks were in order and it otherwise would have done

SandyRentool · May 27

Farooq said:
FPT:

Carnyx said:

Foxy said:

Carnyx said:

El_Capitano said:

Farooq said:

Cicero said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Gardenwalker said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
I was reasonably confident when the GE was called that the Tories would eventually poll 30% with a enough scare the horses attacks on Starmer, stick with nurse as economy is turning corner and standard Tory type offering.

Seems highly unlikely now.
Closer to 20 than 30 I think is now possible. 25 if they do well.
What is the lowest Tory score in modern history?
If modern is since 1918, it's 31% for Major in 1997. In 1832 the Tories polled 29.2% under Wellington.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1832_United_Kingdom_general_election
Yeah they are going to beat that to the downside this time around.
Unfortunately if the first non white PM gets the lowest voteshare for his party since universal suffrage I fear that kills off the likelihood of an ethnic minority leader leading the Conservatives again for a generation. It probably doesn't help the chances of non white potential Labour leaders either
I really don't think Sunak being non-white is effecting the Tory vote share. Unfortunately, rightly or wrongly, having a incredibly wealthy PM at the moment isn't a good look, which isn't help by his gaffes where he looks very out of touch. That's before we get to the inflation, interest rates, Brexit, and awful campaign.
Agree. I often forget that Sunak is the first non-white PM. It’s hardly ever remarked upon.
One one hand, this says very good things about today's Britain the British, individually and collectively.

On other hand, it speaks ill of Rishi Sunak's seeming inability to get any boost let alone traction from his historic status; unlike Margaret Thatcher who clearly DID get a bump from being the first woman PM, all while NOT dwelling on it herself - just doing it.

Part and parcel of his under-performance as a politico, in No. 10 or on the campaign trail.

Re: the first point, think the same is true of conservative Republicans who are willing and able to vote for and actually elect fellow conservatives who are People of Color (as well say in the USA) as Governors, Senators and even Presidents & Vice Presidents.

My own observation, is that, at least in US, voters do NOT object to minority-group candidates who sometimes talk about their heritage and ethnicity, religion, national origin, and occasionally act upon it. For example, when Nikki Haley ordered the lowering of the Confederate flag in South Carolina and Tim Scott strongly supported this. Local and national conservatives, including Trump supporters, mostly also supported or at least went along.

As for White progressives & liberals, they are very open to electing minority candidates, indeed many would prefer to vote for a Black, Asian, Native American, Muslim, etc. candidate if that's a resonable option; indeed, can be a big help in a crowded field and/or tight race.
Sunak's problem, and Britsin's for that matter, is not racism. It is classism. We've had quite enough of the posh, English public schoolboy being in charge.
People seem to state this with a lot of confidence, but I'm not so sure. It's kinda hard to gather evidence for this, since if you directly ask someone whether they would downgrade a candidate due to their ethnicity, they will say no, even if they would.

It's 100% certain that there are SOME people whose vote will be affected by racism. But how do you quantify it?
And is there an opposite effect - do more Hindus vote for Sunak than you’d otherwise expect? I don’t know but it should be measurable by polling.
Not disagreeing, but not easy to measure. We don't vote for PMs but MPs. Just think of Leicester. Is a vote for the Tories there for the local MP or Mr S?
Sunak is popular with some Hindus in Leicester, less so with Sikhs and Muslims. I have a few Hindu colleagues who think him great, but they were all Tory voters already.

It's a bit hard to disentangle from some of the other voting trends locally, including the Hindutva vs Muslim protests a couple of years back, and Soulsbys purge of Labour councillors., but some positive benefit.

I think there is some racism against Sunak driving the Reform vote, but only counting for a couple of percent.
Thanks. Regrettable, the latter point. Though two percentage points comprise a fair chunk of the Reform vote - and not to be sneezed at if one is a Tory at present.
Where are all these numbers coming from, though? How do we measure the effect of racism on the vote. 0%, 2%, 10%? Any figure given has to be based on something, surely?

You can see racism in voting patterns in multi member council wards.

Two candidates from the same party, one with a "British" name, the other with a South Asian name. Contrast the number of votes for each candidate. It does work both ways - in some wards the Muslim candidates outpoll their colleagues.

wooliedyed · May 27

megasaur said:

wooliedyed said:

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?
Purdah is more in respect of publicity put out or issued. If Civil servants could not do anything which was policy for one party but not another, governance would grind to a halt in a campaign.
OK. But I heard someone vaguely credible sounding say on the radio that a Rwanda flight could not take off during the campaign, even if all ducks were in order and it otherwise would have done

No, thats not right. The flights are law as it stands, civil servants are there to enact the law. They would not be able to publicise it or be restricted in how doing so but the politicians and media would take care of that

TheScreamingEagles · May 27

Farooq said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:
Mm. What do you have in mind specifically re the Scottish rules, please?
IIRC

In Scotland sub judice rules kick in at the point of arrest and before charges. if any.

In E&W generally sub judice kicks in after the defendant is charged.
I parsed the question asking what are the limits on what can be said, as opposed to the time they come into force. If not, that's the question I have. What can't we talk about?

In short, I think Angus MacNeil has been very unwise with his comments.

geoffw · May 27

bondegezou said:

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?
None of the people who may be charged are standing in the election.

Justice delayed is justice denied. The process should continue as normal, irrespective of any election.

Agree. But the impact of both action and inaction by the police could affect public perceptions and thereby the election. They are in a bind whatever the do or don't do

Scott_xP · May 27

Wow

https://x.com/YesPMQuoter/status/1794560983379177615

Farooq · May 27

SandyRentool said:

Farooq said:
FPT:

Carnyx said:

Foxy said:

Carnyx said:

El_Capitano said:

Farooq said:

Cicero said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Gardenwalker said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
I was reasonably confident when the GE was called that the Tories would eventually poll 30% with a enough scare the horses attacks on Starmer, stick with nurse as economy is turning corner and standard Tory type offering.

Seems highly unlikely now.
Closer to 20 than 30 I think is now possible. 25 if they do well.
What is the lowest Tory score in modern history?
If modern is since 1918, it's 31% for Major in 1997. In 1832 the Tories polled 29.2% under Wellington.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1832_United_Kingdom_general_election
Yeah they are going to beat that to the downside this time around.
Unfortunately if the first non white PM gets the lowest voteshare for his party since universal suffrage I fear that kills off the likelihood of an ethnic minority leader leading the Conservatives again for a generation. It probably doesn't help the chances of non white potential Labour leaders either
I really don't think Sunak being non-white is effecting the Tory vote share. Unfortunately, rightly or wrongly, having a incredibly wealthy PM at the moment isn't a good look, which isn't help by his gaffes where he looks very out of touch. That's before we get to the inflation, interest rates, Brexit, and awful campaign.
Agree. I often forget that Sunak is the first non-white PM. It’s hardly ever remarked upon.
One one hand, this says very good things about today's Britain the British, individually and collectively.

On other hand, it speaks ill of Rishi Sunak's seeming inability to get any boost let alone traction from his historic status; unlike Margaret Thatcher who clearly DID get a bump from being the first woman PM, all while NOT dwelling on it herself - just doing it.

Part and parcel of his under-performance as a politico, in No. 10 or on the campaign trail.

Re: the first point, think the same is true of conservative Republicans who are willing and able to vote for and actually elect fellow conservatives who are People of Color (as well say in the USA) as Governors, Senators and even Presidents & Vice Presidents.

My own observation, is that, at least in US, voters do NOT object to minority-group candidates who sometimes talk about their heritage and ethnicity, religion, national origin, and occasionally act upon it. For example, when Nikki Haley ordered the lowering of the Confederate flag in South Carolina and Tim Scott strongly supported this. Local and national conservatives, including Trump supporters, mostly also supported or at least went along.

As for White progressives & liberals, they are very open to electing minority candidates, indeed many would prefer to vote for a Black, Asian, Native American, Muslim, etc. candidate if that's a resonable option; indeed, can be a big help in a crowded field and/or tight race.
Sunak's problem, and Britsin's for that matter, is not racism. It is classism. We've had quite enough of the posh, English public schoolboy being in charge.
People seem to state this with a lot of confidence, but I'm not so sure. It's kinda hard to gather evidence for this, since if you directly ask someone whether they would downgrade a candidate due to their ethnicity, they will say no, even if they would.

It's 100% certain that there are SOME people whose vote will be affected by racism. But how do you quantify it?
And is there an opposite effect - do more Hindus vote for Sunak than you’d otherwise expect? I don’t know but it should be measurable by polling.
Not disagreeing, but not easy to measure. We don't vote for PMs but MPs. Just think of Leicester. Is a vote for the Tories there for the local MP or Mr S?
Sunak is popular with some Hindus in Leicester, less so with Sikhs and Muslims. I have a few Hindu colleagues who think him great, but they were all Tory voters already.

It's a bit hard to disentangle from some of the other voting trends locally, including the Hindutva vs Muslim protests a couple of years back, and Soulsbys purge of Labour councillors., but some positive benefit.

I think there is some racism against Sunak driving the Reform vote, but only counting for a couple of percent.
Thanks. Regrettable, the latter point. Though two percentage points comprise a fair chunk of the Reform vote - and not to be sneezed at if one is a Tory at present.
Where are all these numbers coming from, though? How do we measure the effect of racism on the vote. 0%, 2%, 10%? Any figure given has to be based on something, surely?
You can see racism in voting patterns in multi member council wards.

Two candidates from the same party, one with a "British" name, the other with a South Asian name. Contrast the number of votes for each candidate. It does work both ways - in some wards the Muslim candidates outpoll their colleagues.

Great, useful info. Do you know whether anyone's quantified it?

CarlottaVance · May 27

Starmer in Brighton yesterday, the replies your usual reminder that “Twitter isn’t the real world”

https://x.com/peterkyle/status/1794860437898752252

https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1794826633276428690

https://x.com/MrTomGray/status/1794847315162984537

Although from the location looks like they stayed out of the centre….

DougSeal · May 27

megasaur said:

DougSeal said:

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?
It would be mad if that applied to prosecutors. Taking to its absurd extreme, if a member of the cabinet was suspected of being a serial killer during a campaign, the idea that the prosecution should hold off charging until the election would be a little dangerous.

I don’t know the history in Scotland but the Met Police used to instruct solicitors and attorneys (there were such things in England back then) in private practice to draw up indictments. They took the work in house eventually before it was spun out again to the CPS in the 80s. So the work itself, down here anyway, is not historically civil service work.
Not "historically" sure. But it is now - calling yourself the Crown Office is a pretty balls out admission of civil service status by the sound of it.

You can arrest your serial killer but hold off charging him till after polling day

Ironic that sks got his first big break by turning charging decision announcements into showbiz. Always despised him for that

"You can arrest your serial killer but hold off charging him till after polling day"

No. That doesn't work because you'd have to release him. You can't keep someone in custody indefinitely without charging them. In England, if the police keep an individual in custody for longer than 24 hours, the general rule is that the person cannot be detained at the police station for over 24 hours prior to being charged. However, if no charging decision has been made within 24 hours, the police can extend the period of detention up to 36 hours. They can apply to hold you for up to 36 or 96 hours if you’re suspected of murder.

After that they need to shit or get off the pot.

DavidL · May 27

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:
Mm. What do you have in mind specifically re the Scottish rules, please?
IIRC

In Scotland sub judice rules kick in at the point of arrest and before charges. if any.

In E&W generally sub judice kicks in after the defendant is charged.
Recent developments in the world of Scottish politics lead me to issue the usual reminder: contempt of court protections are triggered, in Scotland, once an arrest is made. Please take care.

https://x.com/roddyqc/status/1643537760521781253

I always used this one when giving advice about this:

HM Advocate v Caledonian Newspapers Ltd 1995 SLT 926: "publishers and responsible editors must not only try to avoid committing contempt of court, they must succeed in doing so."

The consequences of strict liability.

megasaur · May 27

DougSeal said:

megasaur said:

DougSeal said:

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?
It would be mad if that applied to prosecutors. Taking to its absurd extreme, if a member of the cabinet was suspected of being a serial killer during a campaign, the idea that the prosecution should hold off charging until the election would be a little dangerous.

I don’t know the history in Scotland but the Met Police used to instruct solicitors and attorneys (there were such things in England back then) in private practice to draw up indictments. They took the work in house eventually before it was spun out again to the CPS in the 80s. So the work itself, down here anyway, is not historically civil service work.
Not "historically" sure. But it is now - calling yourself the Crown Office is a pretty balls out admission of civil service status by the sound of it.

You can arrest your serial killer but hold off charging him till after polling day

Ironic that sks got his first big break by turning charging decision announcements into showbiz. Always despised him for that
"You can arrest your serial killer but hold off charging him till after polling day"

No. That doesn't work because you'd have to release him. You can't keep someone in custody indefinitely without charging them. In England, if the police keep an individual in custody for longer than 24 hours, the general rule is that the person cannot be detained at the police station for over 24 hours prior to being charged. However, if no charging decision has been made within 24 hours, the police can extend the period of detention up to 36 hours. After that they need to shit or get off the pot.

Thanks

bondegezou · May 27

megasaur said:

DougSeal said:

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?
It would be mad if that applied to prosecutors. Taking to its absurd extreme, if a member of the cabinet was suspected of being a serial killer during a campaign, the idea that the prosecution should hold off charging until the election would be a little dangerous.

I don’t know the history in Scotland but the Met Police used to instruct solicitors and attorneys (there were such things in England back then) in private practice to draw up indictments. They took the work in house eventually before it was spun out again to the CPS in the 80s. So the work itself, down here anyway, is not historically civil service work.
Not "historically" sure. But it is now - calling yourself the Crown Office is a pretty balls out admission of civil service status by the sound of it.

You can arrest your serial killer but hold off charging him till after polling day

Ironic that sks got his first big break by turning charging decision announcements into showbiz. Always despised him for that

You can’t keep someone locked up for 6 weeks without charging them! You’d have to let the serial killer back out.

Stuartinromford · May 27

Isn't the key bit of the article

Although he was expelled from the SNP last year...

Could just be him and the Telegraph making some dung motile.

SandyRentool · May 27

Eabhal said:

Flatlander said:
Morning all. Off to do some non-compulsory volunteering...
It doesn't count if you enjoy it.

The latest research suggests even the pyramids didn't require compulsory volunteering.

Yay - Kant early on a Bank Holiday morning. Doing a good turn is of no moral worth if you enjoy doing it.

Barnesian · May 27

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Although it is fun to imagine a Canadian-style Tory meltdown, a more interesting betting market might be LibDem vs SNP for third place, as most seat forecasts have both in the low 20s.

Lib Dems must be odds on to be third party ahead of the SNP. I can't find that bet anywhere.

Betfair has Lib Dems at 27% chance of 25 seats or less.
SNP at 93% chance of 30 seats or less.

agingjb2 · May 27

I just missed National Service in 1960. Even so its existence precluded me from taking a year after A levels (in 1957) to work somewhere which did not extend deferment.

Restarting this will not enchant school leavers.

I also remember that girls were not conscripted, I assume that, if implemented now, they would be.

The whole proposal, while unlikely to happen, must surely lose the Tories votes, at least to the extent that it is taken seriously as a possibility. But then they must know this.

ydoethur · May 27

DavidL said:
Our sub judice rules can be very helpful to politicians who don't want to talk about something. I am absolutely sure the SNP don't want to talk about Branchform.

But, it is yet another demonstration of the adverse consequences of such incredibly prolonged investigations. Sooner or later you will bump into an election.

As the Yanks are finding out with their considerably more glacial processes bringing the Orange Haired Loon to book.

megasaur · May 27

Stuartinromford said:
Isn't the key bit of the article

Although he was expelled from the SNP last year...

Could just be him and the Telegraph making some dung motile.

Nothing in his life [in the SNP] became him like the leaving of it.

DavidL · May 27

bondegezou said:

megasaur said:

DougSeal said:

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?
It would be mad if that applied to prosecutors. Taking to its absurd extreme, if a member of the cabinet was suspected of being a serial killer during a campaign, the idea that the prosecution should hold off charging until the election would be a little dangerous.

I don’t know the history in Scotland but the Met Police used to instruct solicitors and attorneys (there were such things in England back then) in private practice to draw up indictments. They took the work in house eventually before it was spun out again to the CPS in the 80s. So the work itself, down here anyway, is not historically civil service work.
Not "historically" sure. But it is now - calling yourself the Crown Office is a pretty balls out admission of civil service status by the sound of it.

You can arrest your serial killer but hold off charging him till after polling day

Ironic that sks got his first big break by turning charging decision announcements into showbiz. Always despised him for that
You can’t keep someone locked up for 6 weeks without charging them! You’d have to let the serial killer back out.

The duty imposed on what is now the COPFS is not to disclose material that might prejudice the investigation or the prospects of a fair trial. So you won't get public statements about someone being charged that contain more than the very basic material of the age of the person charged and the charge they are facing. They will not disclose, for example, any of the evidence that formed the basis of that charge.

Nicola, and other SNP politicians, have already been hiding behind an ongoing police investigation for more than 2 years.

Farooq · May 27

Barnesian said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Although it is fun to imagine a Canadian-style Tory meltdown, a more interesting betting market might be LibDem vs SNP for third place, as most seat forecasts have both in the low 20s.
Lib Dems must be odds on to be third party ahead of the SNP. I can't find that bet anywhere.

Betfair has Lib Dems at 27% chance of 25 seats or less.
SNP at 93% chance of 30 seats or less.

Imagine betting on this only for the Lib Dems to leapfrog the Tories into second.
Not at all likely, I know, but weapons-grade banter if it did happen.

SandyRentool · May 27

Farooq said:

SandyRentool said:

Farooq said:
FPT:

Carnyx said:

Foxy said:

Carnyx said:

El_Capitano said:

Farooq said:

Cicero said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Gardenwalker said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
I was reasonably confident when the GE was called that the Tories would eventually poll 30% with a enough scare the horses attacks on Starmer, stick with nurse as economy is turning corner and standard Tory type offering.

Seems highly unlikely now.
Closer to 20 than 30 I think is now possible. 25 if they do well.
What is the lowest Tory score in modern history?
If modern is since 1918, it's 31% for Major in 1997. In 1832 the Tories polled 29.2% under Wellington.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1832_United_Kingdom_general_election
Yeah they are going to beat that to the downside this time around.
Unfortunately if the first non white PM gets the lowest voteshare for his party since universal suffrage I fear that kills off the likelihood of an ethnic minority leader leading the Conservatives again for a generation. It probably doesn't help the chances of non white potential Labour leaders either
I really don't think Sunak being non-white is effecting the Tory vote share. Unfortunately, rightly or wrongly, having a incredibly wealthy PM at the moment isn't a good look, which isn't help by his gaffes where he looks very out of touch. That's before we get to the inflation, interest rates, Brexit, and awful campaign.
Agree. I often forget that Sunak is the first non-white PM. It’s hardly ever remarked upon.
One one hand, this says very good things about today's Britain the British, individually and collectively.

On other hand, it speaks ill of Rishi Sunak's seeming inability to get any boost let alone traction from his historic status; unlike Margaret Thatcher who clearly DID get a bump from being the first woman PM, all while NOT dwelling on it herself - just doing it.

Part and parcel of his under-performance as a politico, in No. 10 or on the campaign trail.

Re: the first point, think the same is true of conservative Republicans who are willing and able to vote for and actually elect fellow conservatives who are People of Color (as well say in the USA) as Governors, Senators and even Presidents & Vice Presidents.

My own observation, is that, at least in US, voters do NOT object to minority-group candidates who sometimes talk about their heritage and ethnicity, religion, national origin, and occasionally act upon it. For example, when Nikki Haley ordered the lowering of the Confederate flag in South Carolina and Tim Scott strongly supported this. Local and national conservatives, including Trump supporters, mostly also supported or at least went along.

As for White progressives & liberals, they are very open to electing minority candidates, indeed many would prefer to vote for a Black, Asian, Native American, Muslim, etc. candidate if that's a resonable option; indeed, can be a big help in a crowded field and/or tight race.
Sunak's problem, and Britsin's for that matter, is not racism. It is classism. We've had quite enough of the posh, English public schoolboy being in charge.
People seem to state this with a lot of confidence, but I'm not so sure. It's kinda hard to gather evidence for this, since if you directly ask someone whether they would downgrade a candidate due to their ethnicity, they will say no, even if they would.

It's 100% certain that there are SOME people whose vote will be affected by racism. But how do you quantify it?
And is there an opposite effect - do more Hindus vote for Sunak than you’d otherwise expect? I don’t know but it should be measurable by polling.
Not disagreeing, but not easy to measure. We don't vote for PMs but MPs. Just think of Leicester. Is a vote for the Tories there for the local MP or Mr S?
Sunak is popular with some Hindus in Leicester, less so with Sikhs and Muslims. I have a few Hindu colleagues who think him great, but they were all Tory voters already.

It's a bit hard to disentangle from some of the other voting trends locally, including the Hindutva vs Muslim protests a couple of years back, and Soulsbys purge of Labour councillors., but some positive benefit.

I think there is some racism against Sunak driving the Reform vote, but only counting for a couple of percent.
Thanks. Regrettable, the latter point. Though two percentage points comprise a fair chunk of the Reform vote - and not to be sneezed at if one is a Tory at present.
Where are all these numbers coming from, though? How do we measure the effect of racism on the vote. 0%, 2%, 10%? Any figure given has to be based on something, surely?
You can see racism in voting patterns in multi member council wards.

Two candidates from the same party, one with a "British" name, the other with a South Asian name. Contrast the number of votes for each candidate. It does work both ways - in some wards the Muslim candidates outpoll their colleagues.
Great, useful info. Do you know whether anyone's quantified it?

Sorry, no. I have just looked at previous results for Bradford Council. Some of the differences were very marked, and applied to multiple parties. BTW, we've got all-out elections in 2026 due to boundary changes, so that will be a good opportunity to perform similar analysis.

ydoethur · May 27

TheScreamingEagles said:

Farooq said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:
Mm. What do you have in mind specifically re the Scottish rules, please?
IIRC

In Scotland sub judice rules kick in at the point of arrest and before charges. if any.

In E&W generally sub judice kicks in after the defendant is charged.
I parsed the question asking what are the limits on what can be said, as opposed to the time they come into force. If not, that's the question I have. What can't we talk about?
In short, I think Angus MacNeil has been very unwise with his comments.

If he's had up for breaking sub judice does that mean that we will then all be referring to the Sturgeon case anyway without breaching sub judice?

Which would have precisely the opposite effect of what he intended...

TheScreamingEagles · May 27

Barnesian said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Although it is fun to imagine a Canadian-style Tory meltdown, a more interesting betting market might be LibDem vs SNP for third place, as most seat forecasts have both in the low 20s.
Lib Dems must be odds on to be third party ahead of the SNP. I can't find that bet anywhere.

Betfair has Lib Dems at 27% chance of 25 seats or less.
SNP at 93% chance of 30 seats or less.

Market here

https://smarkets.com/event/43273345/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/2024/07/04/21-00/liberal-democrats-vs-snp

Stuartinromford · May 27

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs
Let’s take stock…

Late on Saturday night on a bank holiday weekend, our PM announced a policy which is so obviously a combo of “superficially appealing but utterly mad” that there is a whole episode of our nation’s best loved political satire in which the Minister proposes exactly this policy and the civil servant has to manoeuvre him out of it because it is utterly mad.

That episode also featured a satire of polling that so accurately skewers the concept of leading questions that many academics (including me) have used it in our methods lectures.

It turns out that the think tank promoting the utterly mad policy, and now taking credit for it, asked leading questions that look almost exactly the same as the Yes Minister ones, in order to demonstrate the public loved it.

Never in a million years would I have imagined that the opening weekend of a do or die campaign from supposedly the most formidable election winning machine in the Western world would be “Do a Yes Minister episode but for real this time.”

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1794859316354121816

Thinking about it, there was an episode about the effective abolition of smoking, too... The Smoke Screen.

https://youtu.be/8mtp2-PEH20

So, what's next?

Eabhal · May 27

DavidL said:

bondegezou said:

megasaur said:

DougSeal said:

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?
It would be mad if that applied to prosecutors. Taking to its absurd extreme, if a member of the cabinet was suspected of being a serial killer during a campaign, the idea that the prosecution should hold off charging until the election would be a little dangerous.

I don’t know the history in Scotland but the Met Police used to instruct solicitors and attorneys (there were such things in England back then) in private practice to draw up indictments. They took the work in house eventually before it was spun out again to the CPS in the 80s. So the work itself, down here anyway, is not historically civil service work.
Not "historically" sure. But it is now - calling yourself the Crown Office is a pretty balls out admission of civil service status by the sound of it.

You can arrest your serial killer but hold off charging him till after polling day

Ironic that sks got his first big break by turning charging decision announcements into showbiz. Always despised him for that
You can’t keep someone locked up for 6 weeks without charging them! You’d have to let the serial killer back out.
The duty imposed on what is now the COPFS is not to disclose material that might prejudice the investigation or the prospects of a fair trial. So you won't get public statements about someone being charged that contain more than the very basic material of the age of the person charged and the charge they are facing. They will not disclose, for example, any of the evidence that formed the basis of that charge.

Nicola, and other SNP politicians, have already been hiding behind an ongoing police investigation for more than 2 years.

Unless they are innocent, in which case they have been pilloried on PB and elsewhere for more than two years, unable to defend themselves.

MJW · May 27

So we're at the stage of this National Service shambles where Tories are seriously suggesting parents are prosecuted over their adult children's refusal to do what they're told at the weekends by the state.

I don't know, but it doesn't sound too conservative.

https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1794997416355041791

Foxy · May 27

Stuartinromford said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs
Let’s take stock…

Late on Saturday night on a bank holiday weekend, our PM announced a policy which is so obviously a combo of “superficially appealing but utterly mad” that there is a whole episode of our nation’s best loved political satire in which the Minister proposes exactly this policy and the civil servant has to manoeuvre him out of it because it is utterly mad.

That episode also featured a satire of polling that so accurately skewers the concept of leading questions that many academics (including me) have used it in our methods lectures.

It turns out that the think tank promoting the utterly mad policy, and now taking credit for it, asked leading questions that look almost exactly the same as the Yes Minister ones, in order to demonstrate the public loved it.

Never in a million years would I have imagined that the opening weekend of a do or die campaign from supposedly the most formidable election winning machine in the Western world would be “Do a Yes Minister episode but for real this time.”

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1794859316354121816
Thinking about it, there was an episode about the effective abolition of smoking, too... The Smoke Screen.

https://youtu.be/8mtp2-PEH20

So, what's next?

Defending the British Sausage!

bondegezou · May 27

Eabhal said:

DavidL said:

bondegezou said:

megasaur said:

DougSeal said:

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?
It would be mad if that applied to prosecutors. Taking to its absurd extreme, if a member of the cabinet was suspected of being a serial killer during a campaign, the idea that the prosecution should hold off charging until the election would be a little dangerous.

I don’t know the history in Scotland but the Met Police used to instruct solicitors and attorneys (there were such things in England back then) in private practice to draw up indictments. They took the work in house eventually before it was spun out again to the CPS in the 80s. So the work itself, down here anyway, is not historically civil service work.
Not "historically" sure. But it is now - calling yourself the Crown Office is a pretty balls out admission of civil service status by the sound of it.

You can arrest your serial killer but hold off charging him till after polling day

Ironic that sks got his first big break by turning charging decision announcements into showbiz. Always despised him for that
You can’t keep someone locked up for 6 weeks without charging them! You’d have to let the serial killer back out.
The duty imposed on what is now the COPFS is not to disclose material that might prejudice the investigation or the prospects of a fair trial. So you won't get public statements about someone being charged that contain more than the very basic material of the age of the person charged and the charge they are facing. They will not disclose, for example, any of the evidence that formed the basis of that charge.

Nicola, and other SNP politicians, have already been hiding behind an ongoing police investigation for more than 2 years.
Unless they are innocent, in which case they have been pilloried on PB and elsewhere for more than two years, unable to defend themselves.

There are more options here. They could be innocent of any criminal wrongdoing, but guilty of doing stupid things, or guilty of non-criminal wrongdoing. Alex Salmond was found innocent of any crime, but does anyone doubt the immorality of his actions?

prh47bridge · May 27

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?

If you are interested, the rules for civil servants are set out at https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/664f56b74f29e1d07fadcdd3/GENERAL_ELECTION_GUIDANCE_2024.pdf

Stuartinromford · May 27

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs
Let’s take stock…

Late on Saturday night on a bank holiday weekend, our PM announced a policy which is so obviously a combo of “superficially appealing but utterly mad” that there is a whole episode of our nation’s best loved political satire in which the Minister proposes exactly this policy and the civil servant has to manoeuvre him out of it because it is utterly mad.

That episode also featured a satire of polling that so accurately skewers the concept of leading questions that many academics (including me) have used it in our methods lectures.

It turns out that the think tank promoting the utterly mad policy, and now taking credit for it, asked leading questions that look almost exactly the same as the Yes Minister ones, in order to demonstrate the public loved it.

Never in a million years would I have imagined that the opening weekend of a do or die campaign from supposedly the most formidable election winning machine in the Western world would be “Do a Yes Minister episode but for real this time.”

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1794859316354121816
Thinking about it, there was an episode about the effective abolition of smoking, too... The Smoke Screen.

https://youtu.be/8mtp2-PEH20

So, what's next?

Defending the British Sausage!

Someone unsuitable becoming Prime Minister by having a confected fight over Europe?

Been there, done that.

Casino_Royale · May 27

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:
I think there are some very interesting bets on Scottish constituencies.
The SNP have sunk by a lot more than the Tories.

Could that see seats such as Ayr and Aberdeen South come into play for the Tories? Or will they leak so many votes to Labour that it's irrelevant?

I'm looking into a few seats at the moment, but don't want to share my conclusions until I've reflected on them and placed some bets.

If that makes sense.

DavidL · May 27

Eabhal said:

DavidL said:

bondegezou said:

megasaur said:

DougSeal said:

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?
It would be mad if that applied to prosecutors. Taking to its absurd extreme, if a member of the cabinet was suspected of being a serial killer during a campaign, the idea that the prosecution should hold off charging until the election would be a little dangerous.

I don’t know the history in Scotland but the Met Police used to instruct solicitors and attorneys (there were such things in England back then) in private practice to draw up indictments. They took the work in house eventually before it was spun out again to the CPS in the 80s. So the work itself, down here anyway, is not historically civil service work.
Not "historically" sure. But it is now - calling yourself the Crown Office is a pretty balls out admission of civil service status by the sound of it.

You can arrest your serial killer but hold off charging him till after polling day

Ironic that sks got his first big break by turning charging decision announcements into showbiz. Always despised him for that
You can’t keep someone locked up for 6 weeks without charging them! You’d have to let the serial killer back out.
The duty imposed on what is now the COPFS is not to disclose material that might prejudice the investigation or the prospects of a fair trial. So you won't get public statements about someone being charged that contain more than the very basic material of the age of the person charged and the charge they are facing. They will not disclose, for example, any of the evidence that formed the basis of that charge.

Nicola, and other SNP politicians, have already been hiding behind an ongoing police investigation for more than 2 years.
Unless they are innocent, in which case they have been pilloried on PB and elsewhere for more than two years, unable to defend themselves.

The delays have been unsatisfactory from everyone's point of view. And the sub judice rule has not stopped a lot of material about the campervan, Amazon accounts and domestic purchases, etc etc leaking into the public domain either. It's a mess to be honest.

Eabhal · May 27

MJW said:
So we're at the stage of this National Service shambles where Tories are seriously suggesting parents are prosecuted over their adult children's refusal to do what they're told at the weekends by the state.

I don't know, but it doesn't sound too conservative.

https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1794997416355041791

Genius question. Well done Luke Jones.

algarkirk · May 27

There's a subtle Shakespeare reference in the headline, but I can't think which play is being referenced.

CarlottaVance · May 27

Tory manifesto revealed:

A national volunteer force will solve crimes. Murders will be handled by Belgian refugees, minor peers or elderly spinsters. On rare occasions they may also be solved by bookish young ladies who become much hotter when they take their glasses off, assisted by dashing young men. Other crimes, such as smuggling, piracy and the kidnap of foreign princesses will be handled by teams of four children, assisted by a dog.

https://thecritic.co.uk/desperate-policies-for-desperate-people/

We really shouldn’t be giving them ideas….

malcolmg · May 27

bondegezou said:

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?
None of the people who may be charged are standing in the election.

Justice delayed is justice denied. The process should continue as normal, irrespective of any election.

Yes sooner crooks are locked away the better, 3 years to work it out even for the thick Scottish plod is taking the biscuit.

ydoethur · May 27

algarkirk said:
There's a subtle Shakespeare reference in the headline, but I can't think which play is being referenced.

Any Shakespeare reference that is dun, can be done by TSE.

Scott_xP · May 27

@SDLPlive
“People in Derry, West Belfast and across the North have a very different experience of the British Army than people in Leicester - the idea that you can force kids here to sign up for a year is total nonsense.”

@ColumEastwood

https://x.com/SDLPlive/status/1795000248743362665

Barnesian · May 27

Farooq said:

Barnesian said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Although it is fun to imagine a Canadian-style Tory meltdown, a more interesting betting market might be LibDem vs SNP for third place, as most seat forecasts have both in the low 20s.
Lib Dems must be odds on to be third party ahead of the SNP. I can't find that bet anywhere.

Betfair has Lib Dems at 27% chance of 25 seats or less.
SNP at 93% chance of 30 seats or less.
Imagine betting on this only for the Lib Dems to leapfrog the Tories into second.
Not at all likely, I know, but weapons-grade banter if it did happen.

Betfair has that as a 7% chance. See "Largest party excluding Labour."
Tories on 93% chance.

SandyRentool · May 27

Stuartinromford said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs
Let’s take stock…

Late on Saturday night on a bank holiday weekend, our PM announced a policy which is so obviously a combo of “superficially appealing but utterly mad” that there is a whole episode of our nation’s best loved political satire in which the Minister proposes exactly this policy and the civil servant has to manoeuvre him out of it because it is utterly mad.

That episode also featured a satire of polling that so accurately skewers the concept of leading questions that many academics (including me) have used it in our methods lectures.

It turns out that the think tank promoting the utterly mad policy, and now taking credit for it, asked leading questions that look almost exactly the same as the Yes Minister ones, in order to demonstrate the public loved it.

Never in a million years would I have imagined that the opening weekend of a do or die campaign from supposedly the most formidable election winning machine in the Western world would be “Do a Yes Minister episode but for real this time.”

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1794859316354121816
Thinking about it, there was an episode about the effective abolition of smoking, too... The Smoke Screen.

https://youtu.be/8mtp2-PEH20

So, what's next?

Policy from Yes, Minister. Campaign strategy from The Thick of It.

Perhaps there is room for a Blackadder inspired cunning plan? Photo op of Sunak with his keks on his head and a pencil up each nostril.

Scott_xP · May 27

@DPJHodges

“We will fine you if you refuse to force your kids into the army. Vote Tory”.

Stuartinromford · May 27

CarlottaVance said:
Tory manifesto revealed:

A national volunteer force will solve crimes. Murders will be handled by Belgian refugees, minor peers or elderly spinsters. On rare occasions they may also be solved by bookish young ladies who become much hotter when they take their glasses off, assisted by dashing young men. Other crimes, such as smuggling, piracy and the kidnap of foreign princesses will be handled by teams of four children, assisted by a dog.

https://thecritic.co.uk/desperate-policies-for-desperate-people/

We really shouldn’t be giving them ideas….

Depends. Those ideas might well be better than they'll come up with by themselves.

ydoethur · May 27

SandyRentool said:

Stuartinromford said:

Scott_xP said:
@robfordmancs
Let’s take stock…

Late on Saturday night on a bank holiday weekend, our PM announced a policy which is so obviously a combo of “superficially appealing but utterly mad” that there is a whole episode of our nation’s best loved political satire in which the Minister proposes exactly this policy and the civil servant has to manoeuvre him out of it because it is utterly mad.

That episode also featured a satire of polling that so accurately skewers the concept of leading questions that many academics (including me) have used it in our methods lectures.

It turns out that the think tank promoting the utterly mad policy, and now taking credit for it, asked leading questions that look almost exactly the same as the Yes Minister ones, in order to demonstrate the public loved it.

Never in a million years would I have imagined that the opening weekend of a do or die campaign from supposedly the most formidable election winning machine in the Western world would be “Do a Yes Minister episode but for real this time.”

https://x.com/robfordmancs/status/1794859316354121816
Thinking about it, there was an episode about the effective abolition of smoking, too... The Smoke Screen.

https://youtu.be/8mtp2-PEH20

So, what's next?

Policy from Yes, Minister. Campaign strategy from The Thick of It.

Perhaps there is room for a Blackadder inspired cunning plan? Photo op of Sunak with his keks on his head and a pencil up each nostril.

I was waiting for his Gene Kelly skit...

malcolmg · May 27

Eabhal said:

DavidL said:

bondegezou said:

megasaur said:

DougSeal said:

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?
It would be mad if that applied to prosecutors. Taking to its absurd extreme, if a member of the cabinet was suspected of being a serial killer during a campaign, the idea that the prosecution should hold off charging until the election would be a little dangerous.

I don’t know the history in Scotland but the Met Police used to instruct solicitors and attorneys (there were such things in England back then) in private practice to draw up indictments. They took the work in house eventually before it was spun out again to the CPS in the 80s. So the work itself, down here anyway, is not historically civil service work.
Not "historically" sure. But it is now - calling yourself the Crown Office is a pretty balls out admission of civil service status by the sound of it.

You can arrest your serial killer but hold off charging him till after polling day

Ironic that sks got his first big break by turning charging decision announcements into showbiz. Always despised him for that
You can’t keep someone locked up for 6 weeks without charging them! You’d have to let the serial killer back out.
The duty imposed on what is now the COPFS is not to disclose material that might prejudice the investigation or the prospects of a fair trial. So you won't get public statements about someone being charged that contain more than the very basic material of the age of the person charged and the charge they are facing. They will not disclose, for example, any of the evidence that formed the basis of that charge.

Nicola, and other SNP politicians, have already been hiding behind an ongoing police investigation for more than 2 years.
Unless they are innocent, in which case they have been pilloried on PB and elsewhere for more than two years, unable to defend themselves.

A blind man can see the truth and it did not take 3 years to work it out. The money is gone and only a very few had access or could see the transactions.

TheScreamingEagles · May 27

DavidL said:

Eabhal said:

DavidL said:

bondegezou said:

megasaur said:

DougSeal said:

megasaur said:
Don't purdah rules preclude civil servants from taking politically sensitive actions during the campaign?
It would be mad if that applied to prosecutors. Taking to its absurd extreme, if a member of the cabinet was suspected of being a serial killer during a campaign, the idea that the prosecution should hold off charging until the election would be a little dangerous.

I don’t know the history in Scotland but the Met Police used to instruct solicitors and attorneys (there were such things in England back then) in private practice to draw up indictments. They took the work in house eventually before it was spun out again to the CPS in the 80s. So the work itself, down here anyway, is not historically civil service work.
Not "historically" sure. But it is now - calling yourself the Crown Office is a pretty balls out admission of civil service status by the sound of it.

You can arrest your serial killer but hold off charging him till after polling day

Ironic that sks got his first big break by turning charging decision announcements into showbiz. Always despised him for that
You can’t keep someone locked up for 6 weeks without charging them! You’d have to let the serial killer back out.
The duty imposed on what is now the COPFS is not to disclose material that might prejudice the investigation or the prospects of a fair trial. So you won't get public statements about someone being charged that contain more than the very basic material of the age of the person charged and the charge they are facing. They will not disclose, for example, any of the evidence that formed the basis of that charge.

Nicola, and other SNP politicians, have already been hiding behind an ongoing police investigation for more than 2 years.
Unless they are innocent, in which case they have been pilloried on PB and elsewhere for more than two years, unable to defend themselves.
The delays have been unsatisfactory from everyone's point of view. And the sub judice rule has not stopped a lot of material about the campervan, Amazon accounts and domestic purchases, etc etc leaking into the public domain either. It's a mess to be honest.

I was shocked the SNP appointed Murray Foote as Chief Executive in light of these comments.

Former SNP spindoctor attacks 'grotesque' police probe

The SNP's former spin doctor has said he is willing to bet that the police investigation into the party's finances will not result in any charges.

Murray Foote, who quit in March amid a row over membership figures, speculated the probe could be "wild goose chase" and branded it a "grotesque spectacle".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65481090

Carnyx · May 27

CarlottaVance said:
Tory manifesto revealed:

A national volunteer force will solve crimes. Murders will be handled by Belgian refugees, minor peers or elderly spinsters. On rare occasions they may also be solved by bookish young ladies who become much hotter when they take their glasses off, assisted by dashing young men. Other crimes, such as smuggling, piracy and the kidnap of foreign princesses will be handled by teams of four children, assisted by a dog.

https://thecritic.co.uk/desperate-policies-for-desperate-people/

We really shouldn’t be giving them ideas….

"Teachers to be instructed in proper use of canes, and importance of ignoring books stuffed down trousers."

That caught my eye in particular after I'd read this (which I've pointed out before, but is interesting if you haven't.)

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/may/25/last-boy-to-be-beaten-at-eton

bondegezou · May 27

MJW said:
So we're at the stage of this National Service shambles where Tories are seriously suggesting parents are prosecuted over their adult children's refusal to do what they're told at the weekends by the state.

I don't know, but it doesn't sound too conservative.

https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1794997416355041791

She does not suggest that. The journalist suggests that and she gives a non-answer that avoids commenting on the suggestion. As the tweet says, she doesn’t rule it out.

Scott_xP · May 27

...

Peter_the_Punter · May 27

ydoethur said:

algarkirk said:
There's a subtle Shakespeare reference in the headline, but I can't think which play is being referenced.
Any Shakespeare reference that is dun, can be done by TSE.

And of course twere better it were dun quickly.

TheScreamingEagles · May 27

algarkirk said:
There's a subtle Shakespeare reference in the headline, but I can't think which play is being referenced.

The Comedy of Errors.

Scott_xP · May 27

@sharonodea

I asked ChatGPT to suggest four completely mad ideas the UK’s Conservative Party could include in their manifesto.

I fully expect to see at least one of these announced before the week is out.

https://x.com/sharonodea/status/1794754014686711816

Farooq · May 27

Barnesian said:

Farooq said:

Barnesian said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Although it is fun to imagine a Canadian-style Tory meltdown, a more interesting betting market might be LibDem vs SNP for third place, as most seat forecasts have both in the low 20s.
Lib Dems must be odds on to be third party ahead of the SNP. I can't find that bet anywhere.

Betfair has Lib Dems at 27% chance of 25 seats or less.
SNP at 93% chance of 30 seats or less.
Imagine betting on this only for the Lib Dems to leapfrog the Tories into second.
Not at all likely, I know, but weapons-grade banter if it did happen.
Betfair has that as a 7% chance. See "Largest party excluding Labour."
Tories on 93% chance.

That's shockingly high. 1 in 13 chance of the Tories slipping down to two questions at PMQs. Similar odds to rolling a 6 on a dice and flipping a coin once and getting heads.

malcolmg · May 27

TheScreamingEagles said:

Farooq said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:
Mm. What do you have in mind specifically re the Scottish rules, please?
IIRC

In Scotland sub judice rules kick in at the point of arrest and before charges. if any.

In E&W generally sub judice kicks in after the defendant is charged.
I parsed the question asking what are the limits on what can be said, as opposed to the time they come into force. If not, that's the question I have. What can't we talk about?
In short, I think Angus MacNeil has been very unwise with his comments.

You are very kind to him.

ydoethur · May 27

One issue with the sheer ineptitude of this campaign and the inanity of the policies proposed is that if the Tories perform in line with historical norms and better than the polls suggest the right wing nutcases will take that as vindication of national service, hanging, flogging and shooting Welshmen on Saturday afternoons.*

Which will probably be far more damaging to the Tories in the long round than a really heavy defeat now that would force them to confront their stupidity and unpopularity.

*TSE of course might be up for this if the rugby has not gone as he wishes.

Barnesian · May 27

TheScreamingEagles said:

Barnesian said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Although it is fun to imagine a Canadian-style Tory meltdown, a more interesting betting market might be LibDem vs SNP for third place, as most seat forecasts have both in the low 20s.
Lib Dems must be odds on to be third party ahead of the SNP. I can't find that bet anywhere.

Betfair has Lib Dems at 27% chance of 25 seats or less.
SNP at 93% chance of 30 seats or less.
Market here

https://smarkets.com/event/43273345/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/2024/07/04/21-00/liberal-democrats-vs-snp

Thanks. Lib Dems heavily odds on but illiquid.

Looking at my smarket account I see some time ago I placed £50 at 2/1 on Corbyn winning a seat. Could come good.

ydoethur · May 27

TheScreamingEagles said:

algarkirk said:
There's a subtle Shakespeare reference in the headline, but I can't think which play is being referenced.
The Comedy of Errors.

And we've not even got to Twelfth Night yet.

squareroot2 · May 27

Scott_xP said:
@sharonodea

I asked ChatGPT to suggest four completely mad ideas the UK’s Conservative Party could include in their manifesto.

I fully expect to see at least one of these announced before the week is out.

https://x.com/sharonodea/status/1794754014686711816

Could it be that it's because you are mad?m

Casino_Royale · May 27

Scott_xP said:
@sharonodea

I asked ChatGPT to suggest four completely mad ideas the UK’s Conservative Party could include in their manifesto.

I fully expect to see at least one of these announced before the week is out.

https://x.com/sharonodea/status/1794754014686711816

That actually sounds quite good.

Scott_xP · May 27

@KevinASchofield

Labour source: “Parents can get fines in the thousands of pounds and 3 months custodial sentence if their kid doesn’t go to school. This is absolute chaos.”

DavidL · May 27

Scott_xP said:
@sharonodea

I asked ChatGPT to suggest four completely mad ideas the UK’s Conservative Party could include in their manifesto.

I fully expect to see at least one of these announced before the week is out.

https://x.com/sharonodea/status/1794754014686711816

Quite like the national tea time idea. And it would really wind up the Nats.

ydoethur · May 27

Scott_xP said:
@KevinASchofield

Labour source: “Parents can get fines in the thousands of pounds and 3 months custodial sentence if their kid doesn’t go to school. This is absolute chaos.”

Labour will charge VAT on this.

(Rishi - royalty fees to the business account please.)

Fairliered · May 27

algarkirk said:
There's a subtle Shakespeare reference in the headline, but I can't think which play is being referenced.

Nicola I Part 1.

megasaur · May 27

ydoethur said:

algarkirk said:
There's a subtle Shakespeare reference in the headline, but I can't think which play is being referenced.
Any Shakespeare reference that is dun, can be done by TSE.

But not dun quickly enough. I beat him to: Nothing in his life [in the SNP] became him like the leaving of it.

DecrepiterJohnL · May 27

TheScreamingEagles said:

Barnesian said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Although it is fun to imagine a Canadian-style Tory meltdown, a more interesting betting market might be LibDem vs SNP for third place, as most seat forecasts have both in the low 20s.
Lib Dems must be odds on to be third party ahead of the SNP. I can't find that bet anywhere.

Betfair has Lib Dems at 27% chance of 25 seats or less.
SNP at 93% chance of 30 seats or less.
Market here

https://smarkets.com/event/43273345/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/2024/07/04/21-00/liberal-democrats-vs-snp

Ladbrokes has 1/6 LibDems > SNP but not the other side.

I thought I'd seen a 2-way market at one of the books but it is not there now.

SandyRentool · May 27

Scott_xP said:
@sharonodea

I asked ChatGPT to suggest four completely mad ideas the UK’s Conservative Party could include in their manifesto.

I fully expect to see at least one of these announced before the week is out.

https://x.com/sharonodea/status/1794754014686711816

National Tea Time. Excellent. Made me LOL.

ydoethur · May 27

Fairliered said:

algarkirk said:
There's a subtle Shakespeare reference in the headline, but I can't think which play is being referenced.
Nicola I Part 1.

It's more Richard II these days.

Carnyx · May 27

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@sharonodea

I asked ChatGPT to suggest four completely mad ideas the UK’s Conservative Party could include in their manifesto.

I fully expect to see at least one of these announced before the week is out.

https://x.com/sharonodea/status/1794754014686711816
Quite like the national tea time idea. And it would really wind up the Nats.

Not at all - all one needs is Abernethy biscuits and raspberry jam.

TimS · May 27

SandyRentool said:

Scott_xP said:
@sharonodea

I asked ChatGPT to suggest four completely mad ideas the UK’s Conservative Party could include in their manifesto.

I fully expect to see at least one of these announced before the week is out.

https://x.com/sharonodea/status/1794754014686711816
National Tea Time. Excellent. Made me LOL.

We already had practice with national clap for the NHS on Thursdays.

LostPassword · May 27

I guess British politics could be a lot worse.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/27/india-elections-pm-narendra-modi-claims-he-has-been-chosen-by-god

“I am convinced that ‘Parmatma’ (God) sent me for a purpose. Once the purpose is achieved, my work will be one done. This is why I have completely dedicated myself to God."

“When my mother was alive, I used to believe that I was born biologically. After she passed away, upon reflecting on all my experiences, I was convinced that God had sent me.”

Farooq · May 27

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:
@sharonodea

I asked ChatGPT to suggest four completely mad ideas the UK’s Conservative Party could include in their manifesto.

I fully expect to see at least one of these announced before the week is out.

https://x.com/sharonodea/status/1794754014686711816
Quite like the national tea time idea. And it would really wind up the Nats.

I think it would wind up anybody wanting to interact with any service at 4pm.

"Hello. This is 999. Your call is important to us. We are currently drinking tea and will resume taking calls in. TWELVE. minutes. If you are bleeding from an aorta, please direct the blood flow away from your telephone headset so your call doesn't get accidentally cut off." [Musak version of Rolling Stone Let It Bleed plays]

DavidL · May 27

Ultimately, the final play by this somewhat desperate government is going to be that there is no point in voting Labour because they are bereft of ideas and nothing will change.

It is only in this context that this mad as a box of frogs idea of National Service has been launched and allowed to dominate the first weekend of the campaign. We may see another bonkers announcement next week on the basis that if you think it is time for a change you vote Tory. Labour are actually struggling to get heard on their agenda.

Will this work? Of course not, but that is not the idea. The idea is to save a few dozen Tory seats.

Carnyx · May 27

LostPassword said:
I guess British politics could be a lot worse.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/27/india-elections-pm-narendra-modi-claims-he-has-been-chosen-by-god

“I am convinced that ‘Parmatma’ (God) sent me for a purpose. Once the purpose is achieved, my work will be one done. This is why I have completely dedicated myself to God."

“When my mother was alive, I used to believe that I was born biologically. After she passed away, upon reflecting on all my experiences, I was convinced that God had sent me.”

Mind, the Tories do think they have a divine right to rule. And I don't think India has a state church sect?

ydoethur · May 27

LostPassword said:
I guess British politics could be a lot worse.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/27/india-elections-pm-narendra-modi-claims-he-has-been-chosen-by-god

“I am convinced that ‘Parmatma’ (God) sent me for a purpose. Once the purpose is achieved, my work will be one done. This is why I have completely dedicated myself to God."

“When my mother was alive, I used to believe that I was born biologically. After she passed away, upon reflecting on all my experiences, I was convinced that God had sent me.”

There's no Messiah there. There's a messed up person all right, but no Messiah.

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