Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The next chapter of the Scottish play? – politicalbetting.com

123457

Comments

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood
    Fire now turning towards CCHQ’s election chief Isaac Levido from one senior Conservative:

    “I am beyond words. They shouldn’t have called it.

    “But having chosen to do so… and had 18 months to prepare, Isaac has no excuse for what he has allowed to happen.”

    @CJTerry
    A reminder that, by all accounts, Levido was the one who warned against going in July

    So. What is the point of an election strategist who is overruled on the single most fundamental piece of strategy?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theousherwood
    Fire now turning towards CCHQ’s election chief Isaac Levido from one senior Conservative:

    “I am beyond words. They shouldn’t have called it.

    “But having chosen to do so… and had 18 months to prepare, Isaac has no excuse for what he has allowed to happen.”

    @CJTerry
    A reminder that, by all accounts, Levido was the one who warned against going in July

    So. What is the point of an election strategist who is overruled on the single most fundamental piece of strategy?
    Same as most consultants.

    To take the blame when it goes wrong.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited May 27

    MattW said:

    Are we allowed one video as well?

    Fantastic video of a journey from Shrewsbury to Welshpool on the National Cycling / Walking Network. Rail trails, canal towpaths, quiet lanes, with a bit of A-road. 41 miles.

    Excellent observation and commentary along the way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT-prDPwvUk

    It's a lovely route. There was a bridge over the Severn (Maginnis Bridge) up for sale near Welshpool a few years back that could have cut out one of the biggest climbs. I flagged it to Sustrans but I don't think anything ever happened about it.
    At the moment I'm trying to dream up a way to get a couple of dozen of these 1-4 per month thoughtful local / regional cycling Youtubers to flag up accessible routes as they film them.

    Last BH I was helping a lady with fibromyalgia looking for a 35 mile step free barrier free route for a ride in the sun. She can't push a bike up two steps or a cycle-stairway without pain, or walk very far, but can do that distance in an afternoon on her E-assist cycle. It's a question constantly being asked.

    The accessibility criteria are easy, and a video is better than a GPS or written route.

    It's nice to see the inclusivity stuff getting everywhere slowly - the current edition of the Ramblers magazine is all over it, and Cycling UK are launching new hubs for their Inclusive Cycling Experience project (giving experience of non-standard or e- cycles) in Greater Manchester and Inverness.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    The good news - there’s a general election on 4th July

    The bad news - it’s 5 and a half weeks until 4th of July

    Right? It’s a long, long campaign.
    What will be the next topic? We need to cover: tax (there will be tax cuts in the Tory manifesto), NHS, immigration, transport, housebuilding, EU relations, education.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Are we allowed one video as well?

    Fantastic video of a journey from Shrewsbury to Welshpool on the National Cycling / Walking Network. Rail trails, canal towpaths, quiet lanes, with a bit of A-road. 41 miles.

    Excellent observation and commentary along the way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT-prDPwvUk

    It's a lovely route. There was a bridge over the Severn (Maginnis Bridge) up for sale near Welshpool a few years back that could have cut out one of the biggest climbs. I flagged it to Sustrans but I don't think anything ever happened about it.
    At the moment I'm trying to dream up a way to get a couple of dozen of these 1-4 per month thoughtful local / regional cycling Youtubers to flag up accessible routes as they film them.

    Last BH I was helping a lady with fibromyalgia looking for a 35 mile step free barrier free route for a ride in the sun. She can't push a bike up two steps or a cycle-stairway without pain, or walk very far, but can do that distance in an afternoon on her E-assist cycle. It's a question constantly being asked.
    Yes - there's a lot of interest in crowdsourcing infrastructure information like this - makeways.org (which is associated with the Slow Ways project) is about to add cycling to the current walking focus.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    edited May 27

    National Service 18-year-old’s would be paid stipend, Sunak reveals while answering questions on TikTok.

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1795092957185360253

    Well it's an improvement.

    That's not what Cleverley said yesterday. It's almost as if they are making it up as they go along.

    What about 16 and 17 year old school leavers who are called up in the middle of an apprenticeship?
    They have to wait till they are finished, and then do it, if the same rules as before (ie 1940s-50s) are followed.

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/transformingsociety/private-lives/yourcountry/overview/nationalservice/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited May 27
    dixiedean said:

    Jesus.
    The comments below that article.
    A searing hatred of young people, who simply wouldn't have the physical or mental capacity to do the unpaid labour that none of the commenters ever did.
    I think the commenters probably did do that - we now have a minumum wage on a par with the best in Europe.

    But I'm wondering if we should take a lesson from Ukraine, and apply conscription it to 25 - 50 year olds :wink:
  • Rishi plays football.

    https://x.com/harry_horton/status/1795097332624548102

    PM Rishi Sunak playing football at Chesham Utd in Chesham & Amersham - a seat the Lib Dems took off the Conservatives in a by-election three years ago.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    MattW said:

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    I think with the current Russian leadership, it means making sure that they do not come back for a century.

    And - as noted - the ultimate answer is for Russia to become a modern democracy. But that may take some time.

    In the meantime it's going to be a new Iron Curtain at the border of Russia.
    The problem is that Putin - and by extension, the Russian leadership - see the new 'Iron Curtain' as extending far into eastern Europe. They have expressed their intentions, and it is imperial in nature. They are Russian. They are stronk.

    The old USSR was fairly happy with its borders; it had client states between it and its borders, and it could be seen the world over as being the stronkiest of stronk (as Afghanistan showed, a lie (*)).

    Are we willing to cede those states to a fascist, imperialist power? If so, let us do it, and be damned by history. If not, they need protecting. And that means starting with Ukraine.

    (*) Which it also showed for the USA, as did Vietnam. It's odd to think why Brezhnev did not look at the US's experience in Vietnam and think: "hmmm...."
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Just back from a walk by the canal. I can report that one house had two Conservative signs prominently displayed in the front garden. Someone who actually wants Sir Philip Davies to be reelected. Remarkable.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    National Service 18-year-old’s would be paid stipend, Sunak reveals while answering questions on TikTok.

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1795092957185360253

    Well it's an improvement.

    That's not what Cleverley said yesterday. It's almost as if they are making it up as they go along.

    Looks like he's only referring to the military bit.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    MattW said:

    dixiedean said:

    Jesus.
    The comments below that article.
    A searing hatred of young people, who simply wouldn't have the physical or mental capacity to do the unpaid labour that none of the commenters ever did.
    I think the commenters probably did do that - we now have a minumum wage on a par with the best in Europe.

    I'm wondering if we should take a lesson from Ukraine, and apply it to 25 - 50 year olds :wink:
    Those folk do have the vote in GEs, though.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    National Service 18-year-old’s would be paid stipend, Sunak reveals while answering questions on TikTok.

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1795092957185360253

    Well it's an improvement.

    That's not what Cleverley said yesterday. It's almost as if they are making it up as they go along.

    What about 16 and 17 year old school leavers who are called up in the middle of an apprenticeship?
    What about 18 year olds who completed their apprenticeship and are kept on, only for their employer to discover they are unavailable to work for one weekend a month for the next two years?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,938
    o/t but marginally interesting in US political news, apologies if this has already been mentioned.

    The Libertarian Party (after booing Trump's appearance last week) has selected an openly gay, pro-trans, gun-toting ("armed queers are harder to bash") advocate for completely open borders, decriminalise drugs, ceasefire in Gaza and (strangely for a Libertarian) pro mask mandate candidate.

    I can't say I agree with all his positions but he's much more my kind of libertarian than the "far right conservative masquerading as an advocate for freedom" you usually get in the US.

    Naturally your typical "far right conservative masquerading as an advocate for freedom" crowd is loudly declaring their support for Trump.

    It's probably very marginal, the US Libertarian candidate only getting 1.2% of the national total in 2020. But in a close WH2024 race it might have an impact.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Just back from a walk by the canal. I can report that one house had two Conservative signs prominently displayed in the front garden. Someone who actually wants Sir Philip Davies to be reelected. Remarkable.

    Almost like seeing Cthulhu emerge from the canal itself.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009

    National Service 18-year-old’s would be paid stipend, Sunak reveals while answering questions on TikTok.

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1795092957185360253

    Well it's an improvement.

    Paid compulsory volunteering. What?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    National Service 18-year-old’s would be paid stipend, Sunak reveals while answering questions on TikTok.

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1795092957185360253

    Well it's an improvement.

    Paid compulsory volunteering. What?
    I tend to find life gets ever more surreal with each walk by the canal.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    The good news - there’s a general election on 4th July

    The bad news - it’s 5 and a half weeks until 4th of July

    I'm sure you'll cope.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    You need credible deterrence, not trust.
    Perhaps; perhaps not. Then the question becomes what 'credible deterrence' looks like, given that Putin might well be thinking that NATO can be neutralised politically.
    If you are saying that we can't have peace until we can trust Russia, when will that be?
    If you don't trust Russia, do you trust the peace?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,602

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    You need credible deterrence, not trust.
    Perhaps; perhaps not. Then the question becomes what 'credible deterrence' looks like, given that Putin might well be thinking that NATO can be neutralised politically.
    If you are saying that we can't have peace until we can trust Russia, when will that be?
    If you don't trust Russia, do you trust the peace?
    Of course you don't trust the peace. That's why you invest in defence.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    Carnyx said:

    Just back from a walk by the canal. I can report that one house had two Conservative signs prominently displayed in the front garden. Someone who actually wants Sir Philip Davies to be reelected. Remarkable.

    Almost like seeing Cthulhu emerge from the canal itself.
    I once saw a friend emerge from a duckpond, covered in duckweed, looking a little but like Cthulhu. We were both very drunk. He was also about as far away from a Tory MP as it is possible to get...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    National Service 18-year-old’s would be paid stipend, Sunak reveals while answering questions on TikTok.

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1795092957185360253

    Well it's an improvement.

    Not making it up on the fly, oh no, not at all.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,077

    Just back from a walk by the canal. I can report that one house had two Conservative signs prominently displayed in the front garden. Someone who actually wants Sir Philip Davies to be reelected. Remarkable.

    Given how rebellious he is, it is unlikely to be Rishi Sunak´s house... Lord Ashcroft´s maybe?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    Just back from a walk by the canal. I can report that one house had two Conservative signs prominently displayed in the front garden. Someone who actually wants Sir Philip Davies to be reelected. Remarkable.

    Not really.
    It was Sir Philip Davies's house you saw.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,517
    kyf_100 said:

    o/t but marginally interesting in US political news, apologies if this has already been mentioned.

    The Libertarian Party (after booing Trump's appearance last week) has selected an openly gay, pro-trans, gun-toting ("armed queers are harder to bash") advocate for completely open borders, decriminalise drugs, ceasefire in Gaza and (strangely for a Libertarian) pro mask mandate candidate.

    I can't say I agree with all his positions but he's much more my kind of libertarian than the "far right conservative masquerading as an advocate for freedom" you usually get in the US.

    Naturally your typical "far right conservative masquerading as an advocate for freedom" crowd is loudly declaring their support for Trump.

    It's probably very marginal, the US Libertarian candidate only getting 1.2% of the national total in 2020. But in a close WH2024 race it might have an impact.

    I think I could probably vote for that candidate. I am sure there would be bits I would disagree with but the overall thrust - proper Libertarian rather than Right Wing Religious Nut masquarading - defintely pushes a lot of buttons for me.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    You need credible deterrence, not trust.
    Perhaps; perhaps not. Then the question becomes what 'credible deterrence' looks like, given that Putin might well be thinking that NATO can be neutralised politically.
    If you are saying that we can't have peace until we can trust Russia, when will that be?
    If you don't trust Russia, do you trust the peace?
    Of course you don't trust the peace. That's why you invest in defence.
    And if your opponent does not think you are serious in your defence? ISTR we pledged defence of Poland in 1939, before Germany and Russia invaded. That did not work out well for us, or Poland.

    Deterrence only works if the enemy believes your deterrence has teeth. And NATO (mainly Tump and his acolytes) are giving exactly the opposite impression.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    edited May 27

    National Service 18-year-old’s would be paid stipend, Sunak reveals while answering questions on TikTok.

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1795092957185360253

    Well it's an improvement.

    Not making it up on the fly, oh no, not at all.
    Wait.
    I thought a Royal Commission was going to work out the details?
    So. As it stands.
    670 000 18 year olds.
    Of whom 30 000 "brightest and best" (wonder what walk of life they'll be from?) will be paid a yet to be determined sum to join the Forces for a year and given priority in education and employment prospects.
    The firmly rejected other 640 000 will effectively be unpaid, presumably unmonitored, agency workers for the State (and God knows who else) one weekend a month for two years, doing Christ alone knows what.*

    *As of 3:42 Monday.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited May 27

    Just back from a walk by the canal. I can report that one house had two Conservative signs prominently displayed in the front garden. Someone who actually wants Sir Philip Davies to be reelected. Remarkable.

    Philip Davies thinks his current supporters will bring him in, or he doesn't care, or he wants out.

    He's Labour target no 60 I think - Shipley?

    He's resolutely refusing to talk to walking and cycling people, and insulting them in his responses. So he seems not to care about *that* vote.

    A modestly partisan report:
    https://road.cc/content/news/mp-accused-massive-prejudice-against-cyclists-308517

    I'm thinking about doing an "anti walking and cycling" Bingo Card, to tick off on Election Night as they will hopefully go down one by one, starting with Mark Harper, IDS, Theresa Coffey, Philip Davies and a few others. Lord Hogan-Howe would be on it for demanding a law that all cyclists must have insurance, when afaik a big majority already have it, but unfortunately he is unelected.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,602
    edited May 27

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    You need credible deterrence, not trust.
    Perhaps; perhaps not. Then the question becomes what 'credible deterrence' looks like, given that Putin might well be thinking that NATO can be neutralised politically.
    If you are saying that we can't have peace until we can trust Russia, when will that be?
    If you don't trust Russia, do you trust the peace?
    Of course you don't trust the peace. That's why you invest in defence.
    And if your opponent does not think you are serious in your defence? ISTR we pledged defence of Poland in 1939, before Germany and Russia invaded. That did not work out well for us, or Poland.

    Deterrence only works if the enemy believes your deterrence has teeth. And NATO (mainly Tump and his acolytes) are giving exactly the opposite impression.
    It's mainly European NATO members that have been underinvesting in defence. Trump was right to call it out, and if they had responded while he was in office, Russia might have been deterred.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    dixiedean said:

    National Service 18-year-old’s would be paid stipend, Sunak reveals while answering questions on TikTok.

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1795092957185360253

    Well it's an improvement.

    Not making it up on the fly, oh no, not at all.
    Wait.
    I thought a Royal Commission was going to work out the details?
    So. As it stands.
    670 000 18 year olds.
    Of whom 30 000 "brightest and best" (wonder what walk of life they'll be from?) will be paid a yet to be determined sum to join the Forces for a year and given priority in education and employment prospects.
    The firmly rejected other 640 000 will effectively be unpaid, presumably unmonitored, agency workers for the State (and God knows who else) one weekend a month for two years, doing Christ alone knows what.*

    *As of 3:42 Monday.
    It's grammar vs secondary mod redux
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    You need credible deterrence, not trust.
    Perhaps; perhaps not. Then the question becomes what 'credible deterrence' looks like, given that Putin might well be thinking that NATO can be neutralised politically.
    If you are saying that we can't have peace until we can trust Russia, when will that be?
    If you don't trust Russia, do you trust the peace?
    Of course you don't trust the peace. That's why you invest in defence.
    And if your opponent does not think you are serious in your defence? ISTR we pledged defence of Poland in 1939, before Germany and Russia invaded. That did not work out well for us, or Poland.

    Deterrence only works if the enemy believes your deterrence has teeth. And NATO (mainly Tump and his acolytes) are giving exactly the opposite impression.
    It's mainly European NATO members that have been underinvesting in defence. Trump was right to call it out, and if they had responded while he was in office, Russia might have been deterred.
    Do you really believe that sh*t? Trump has fairly consistently undermined NATO.

    And remember Trump's comments on Putin's invasion: calling Putin a genius and savvy.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

    He also called on Russia to invade other NATO members:
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-comments-urging-russia-to-invade-delinquent-nato-members

    These are not comments designed to make an aggressor think the USA will stand behind one and all. Quite the opposite, in fact.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    Ghedebrav said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    De gustibus, etc.

    I can't honestly think of any politician I'd ever describe as sexy.
    I'm sure there are a few guilty fancies out there. For example I think Gillian Keegan has a glint in her eye, and if I were inclined that way, young Joseph Vissarionovich a total hunk.

    Yikes at GK (no ta), but The Young Man Of Steel (Abs) is worth using my daily pic quota for.


    I’ve always liked famous but out of context art

    At home I have a painting of Abe Lincoln diving for crayfish
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239

    The good news - there’s a general election on 4th July

    The bad news - it’s 5 and a half weeks until 4th of July


    Sunak will finally be free of the shackles of British rule. Independence Day!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    New Statesman has Labour winning 417 seats and 45%, similar to 1997.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    dixiedean said:

    National Service 18-year-old’s would be paid stipend, Sunak reveals while answering questions on TikTok.

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1795092957185360253

    Well it's an improvement.

    Not making it up on the fly, oh no, not at all.
    Wait.
    I thought a Royal Commission was going to work out the details?
    So. As it stands.
    670 000 18 year olds.
    Of whom 30 000 "brightest and best" (wonder what walk of life they'll be from?) will be paid a yet to be determined sum to join the Forces for a year and given priority in education and employment prospects.
    The firmly rejected other 640 000 will effectively be unpaid, presumably unmonitored, agency workers for the State (and God knows who else) one weekend a month for two years, doing Christ alone knows what.*

    *As of 3:42 Monday.
    There are multiple giveaways that it's not meant to happen.

    Partly that it's been pinged out as a press release on Saturday night during a flailing election campaign.

    Partly because the rollout of the main scheme is pencilled in for after the next election.

    Partly because the funding is largely fictional.

    And because it's purely decorative, why should any of the bits behind the façade be connected to anything?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    dixiedean said:

    National Service 18-year-old’s would be paid stipend, Sunak reveals while answering questions on TikTok.

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1795092957185360253

    Well it's an improvement.

    That's not what Cleverley said yesterday. It's almost as if they are making it up as they go along.

    What about 16 and 17 year old school leavers who are called up in the middle of an apprenticeship?
    What about 18 year olds who completed their apprenticeship and are kept on, only for their employer to discover they are unavailable to work for one weekend a month for the next two years?
    You roster around that
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    edited May 27
    Heathener said:

    boulay said:

    Heathener said:

    megasaur said:

    Fishing said:

    Heathener said:

    MJW said:

    So we're at the stage of this National Service shambles where Tories are seriously suggesting parents are prosecuted over their adult children's refusal to do what they're told at the weekends by the state.

    I don't know, but it doesn't sound too conservative.

    https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1794997416355041791

    This is the least libertarian Government of my lifetime.

    Not sure if anyone from left or right could disagree with that, even those a lot older than I?
    Blair tried to introduce ID cards, 90 day detention without trial and ASBOs. He was someone so sure that whatever the police do must be right that he voluntarily submitted his DNA to a database, presumably so they could catch him for a crime he committed in the future.

    Starmer will probably be even worse. He would probably still have us in lockdown as he opposed every measure to relax it.
    He actually *did* introduce indefinite prison sentences, which people are still serving. As outrageous to me as blood and Post office scandals. And of course if we get an inquiry it will be decades late and no help for those who have committed suicide in prison
    Oh I see.

    Well just confirms many of my views on Tony Blair, which I’ve made no secret about on here. I disliked him then and I dislike him now.

    I marched against the war in Iraq, standing right behind someone called Jeremy Corbyn.

    Bloody proud I did too.
    Cool story. Are you the one on the left or the right?


    Haha excellent!

    There were, iirc, 3 anti Iraq war marches? I think mine was the 15th Feb one. Keep digging around and there’s a vague possibility you’ll find me.

    Young and gorgeous, obvs ;)
    I was there on the 15th Feb. The huge crowd and slow pace of the march gave a great opportunity for an impromptu pub crawl through central London - Remember starting with one near the British Museum, popping into the Spice of Life as we passed Cambridge Circus, had another near Green Park where I also remember popping into a Bookies to watch See More Business get what I think was his final win at Wincanton. Then avoiding the speechifying in Hyde Park, I headed for the Carpenters Arms near Marble Arch before getting the train home.

    Truly however a memorable day.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    edited May 27

    MattW said:

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    I think with the current Russian leadership, it means making sure that they do not come back for a century.

    And - as noted - the ultimate answer is for Russia to become a modern democracy. But that may take some time.

    In the meantime it's going to be a new Iron Curtain at the border of Russia.
    The problem is that Putin - and by extension, the Russian leadership - see the new 'Iron Curtain' as extending far into eastern Europe. They have expressed their intentions, and it is imperial in nature. They are Russian. They are stronk.

    The old USSR was fairly happy with its borders; it had client states between it and its borders, and it could be seen the world over as being the stronkiest of stronk (as Afghanistan showed, a lie (*)).

    Are we willing to cede those states to a fascist, imperialist power? If so, let us do it, and be damned by history. If not, they need protecting. And that means starting with Ukraine.

    (*) Which it also showed for the USA, as did Vietnam. It's odd to think why Brezhnev did not look at the US's experience in Vietnam and think: "hmmm...."
    The Russians thought they won in Vietnam.

    So they assumed that history was On Their Side and Afghanistan would be more of the same.

    Under Bush II, the Vietnamese government offered Cam Rahn Bay as a naval base to replace the Philippines. Which, given that the original reason for the whole Vietnam comedy was to deny it to the USSR as a naval base…
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    dixiedean said:

    National Service 18-year-old’s would be paid stipend, Sunak reveals while answering questions on TikTok.

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1795092957185360253

    Well it's an improvement.

    That's not what Cleverley said yesterday. It's almost as if they are making it up as they go along.

    What about 16 and 17 year old school leavers who are called up in the middle of an apprenticeship?
    What about 18 year olds who completed their apprenticeship and are kept on, only for their employer to discover they are unavailable to work for one weekend a month for the next two years?
    You roster around that
    Also I don't suppose it must be on the weekend either, it just would be for most.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,602

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    You need credible deterrence, not trust.
    Perhaps; perhaps not. Then the question becomes what 'credible deterrence' looks like, given that Putin might well be thinking that NATO can be neutralised politically.
    If you are saying that we can't have peace until we can trust Russia, when will that be?
    If you don't trust Russia, do you trust the peace?
    Of course you don't trust the peace. That's why you invest in defence.
    And if your opponent does not think you are serious in your defence? ISTR we pledged defence of Poland in 1939, before Germany and Russia invaded. That did not work out well for us, or Poland.

    Deterrence only works if the enemy believes your deterrence has teeth. And NATO (mainly Tump and his acolytes) are giving exactly the opposite impression.
    It's mainly European NATO members that have been underinvesting in defence. Trump was right to call it out, and if they had responded while he was in office, Russia might have been deterred.
    Do you really believe that sh*t? Trump has fairly consistently undermined NATO.

    And remember Trump's comments on Putin's invasion: calling Putin a genius and savvy.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

    He also called on Russia to invade other NATO members:
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-comments-urging-russia-to-invade-delinquent-nato-members

    These are not comments designed to make an aggressor think the USA will stand behind one and all. Quite the opposite, in fact.
    You are exhibiting the problem by treating NATO as nothing more than a US protectorate rather than an alliance. If European members can't credibly defend Europe, that's their problem and Trump was right to point out the imbalance.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,033
    edited May 27
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    I don't think people here fully grasp what a moment this is, coming up on 4th July. Absent an almighty shock we are going to see something which although not quite Haley’s comet is nevertheless a vanishingly rare event - a change of governing party at Westminster. In my entire adult life, as I have ripened from callow teen to the sweet old fruit I am today, 45 winters and 44 summers, I've experienced this only twice. So I don't go with all this 'yawn' and 'no enthusiasm' talk. I'm excited.

    Changing one set of lying useless arseholes for another set of lying useless arseholes is far from exciting.
    But a Labour arsehole is fundamentally different to a Tory one. And we're talking here about something that comes along less than once a decade. Think about world cups and olympic games, how momentous each one seems, being only every 4 years. Well, this is almost four times as rare. In fact if we look specifically at the Tories being kicked out of power, I'm 63 and it's happened just once in my adult lifetime. Once.
    I am totally cynical about all politician's nowadays, they are all only on the make for themselves, grab as much as they can and F*** the public, that includes the silent ones who just take the money and hide except to vote.
    "All" is surely overdoing the cynicism. Eg you like Salmond, don't you. And look at the last 3 Labour leaders down here. Brown, Corbyn, Miliband. You might not rate them but they weren't charlatans or phonies out only for themselves. Starmer doesn't seem to be either. Or Reeves or Lammy or Cooper. Course they might turn out to be wrong uns but there's no particular reason to expect that.
    Brown was undoubtedly a charlatan. His central political strategy was a kind of confidence trick to convince people he had hidden depths, and he relied on intimidating his rivals into submission.
    What I mean is he did not view politics as a vehicle to enrich himself, to attain power for power's sake, or as primarily a game.
    I agree he didn't view it as a vehicle to enrich himself. And yes, he took it, and himself, far too seriously to see it mostly as a game.

    But to attain power for its own sake, I'm not so sure. Brown schemed, plotted and bided his time for ten years to become PM, and, when he did, obviously had no idea what to do with it. Everybody assumed there would be some great package of reforms, but there was nothing at all. Given that he didn't want money, the only thing I can assume is that he did actually want power for its own sake.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    I'm wondering which PB poster will go ballistic and off-reservation this election. We usually have one.

    This year, with both the UK and USA elections, we might have a bumper crop... :)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    @harry_horton
    PM Rishi Sunak playing football at Chesham Utd in Chesham & Amersham - a seat the Lib Dems took off the Conservatives in a by-election three years ago.

    https://x.com/harry_horton/status/1795097332624548102

    @KevinASchofield
    Labour source: “The worst encounter between a politician and cones since John Major’s hotline.”
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986

    I'm wondering which PB poster will go ballistic and off-reservation this election. We usually have one.

    This year, with both the UK and USA elections, we might have a bumper crop... :)

    Leon

    It's always Leon...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    You need credible deterrence, not trust.
    Perhaps; perhaps not. Then the question becomes what 'credible deterrence' looks like, given that Putin might well be thinking that NATO can be neutralised politically.
    If you are saying that we can't have peace until we can trust Russia, when will that be?
    If you don't trust Russia, do you trust the peace?
    Of course you don't trust the peace. That's why you invest in defence.
    And if your opponent does not think you are serious in your defence? ISTR we pledged defence of Poland in 1939, before Germany and Russia invaded. That did not work out well for us, or Poland.

    Deterrence only works if the enemy believes your deterrence has teeth. And NATO (mainly Tump and his acolytes) are giving exactly the opposite impression.
    It's mainly European NATO members that have been underinvesting in defence. Trump was right to call it out, and if they had responded while he was in office, Russia might have been deterred.
    Do you really believe that sh*t? Trump has fairly consistently undermined NATO.

    And remember Trump's comments on Putin's invasion: calling Putin a genius and savvy.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

    He also called on Russia to invade other NATO members:
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-comments-urging-russia-to-invade-delinquent-nato-members

    These are not comments designed to make an aggressor think the USA will stand behind one and all. Quite the opposite, in fact.
    You are exhibiting the problem by treating NATO as nothing more than a US protectorate rather than an alliance. If European members can't credibly defend Europe, that's their problem and Trump was right to point out the imbalance.
    That sorta ignores the whole reason NATO was set up in the first place. You also ignore what Trump says in those links I gave. I wonder why... ?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited May 27
    DavidL said:

    Thread:

    Labour and the Tories have both said they can raise £6bn from cracking down on tax avoidance and evasion. How plausible is this?

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/1795034992134787330?

    Not managing to get through to the article there but I am going for "not very".

    Presumably, if it was possible, the current cabinet and the Chancellor in particular should be getting surcharged for the failure to recover it over the last decade?
    TLDR and others have said similar. It is possible to collect meaningfully more tax, but you need to be focused on tax collection and have a well organised and resourced tax collection system. It's as much about being clear what taxes people need to pay and making it easier for them to work it out and make the payments, as it is about cracking down on evasion.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited May 27
    Scott_xP said:

    @harry_horton
    PM Rishi Sunak playing football at Chesham Utd in Chesham & Amersham - a seat the Lib Dems took off the Conservatives in a by-election three years ago.

    https://x.com/harry_horton/status/1795097332624548102

    @KevinASchofield
    Labour source: “The worst encounter between a politician and cones since John Major’s hotline.”

    He does better than I likely would have.

    I agree with the general thesis that some of the criticism of Rishi is pathetic. The main reason for not voting for him is that he has appalling political judgment not because his dribbling skills are lacking.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,602
    Farooq said:

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    You need credible deterrence, not trust.
    Perhaps; perhaps not. Then the question becomes what 'credible deterrence' looks like, given that Putin might well be thinking that NATO can be neutralised politically.
    If you are saying that we can't have peace until we can trust Russia, when will that be?
    If you don't trust Russia, do you trust the peace?
    Of course you don't trust the peace. That's why you invest in defence.
    And if your opponent does not think you are serious in your defence? ISTR we pledged defence of Poland in 1939, before Germany and Russia invaded. That did not work out well for us, or Poland.

    Deterrence only works if the enemy believes your deterrence has teeth. And NATO (mainly Tump and his acolytes) are giving exactly the opposite impression.
    It's mainly European NATO members that have been underinvesting in defence. Trump was right to call it out, and if they had responded while he was in office, Russia might have been deterred.
    Do you really believe that sh*t? Trump has fairly consistently undermined NATO.

    And remember Trump's comments on Putin's invasion: calling Putin a genius and savvy.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

    He also called on Russia to invade other NATO members:
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-comments-urging-russia-to-invade-delinquent-nato-members

    These are not comments designed to make an aggressor think the USA will stand behind one and all. Quite the opposite, in fact.
    You are exhibiting the problem by treating NATO as nothing more than a US protectorate rather than an alliance. If European members can't credibly defend Europe, that's their problem and Trump was right to point out the imbalance.
    Europe united CAN defend itself against Russia. Without US involvement.

    That doesn't mean it wasn't extremely foolish of Trump to suggest Putin invade NATO members. There would be considerable loss of life in repulsing Russia, on both sides.
    Trump's remarks made a Russian invasion less likely by forcing the countries in question to take defence slightly more seriously.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,066
    edited May 27
    Andy_JS said:

    New Statesman has Labour winning 417 seats and 45%, similar to 1997.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts

    Non-paywall: https://archive.is/fhfsu
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited May 27
    As I posted last night, I think the Nashy Servs ideal will be popular with a significant few.

    Having said that, I explained it to my wife - who I find to be reflexively authoritarian in contrast to my instinctive liberalism - and she was hopping mad.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    MattW said:

    Are we allowed one video as well?

    Fantastic video of a journey from Shrewsbury to Welshpool on the National Cycling / Walking Network. Rail trails, canal towpaths, quiet lanes, with a bit of A-road. 41 miles.

    Excellent observation and commentary along the way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT-prDPwvUk

    A video of a journey from Shrewsbury to Welshpool behind a pair of Class 37s on the Euston - Aberystwyth would be even better.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited May 27
    Farooq said:

    I'm wondering which PB poster will go ballistic and off-reservation this election. We usually have one.

    This year, with both the UK and USA elections, we might have a bumper crop... :)

    We've already had one, talking about wading through blood etc.

    If I worked at MI5 I'd be putting him under surveillance.
    He may already be.
    We all might!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    This is an interesting one (to me, at least):

    A family kicked off a flight for wanting an allergy announcement.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0kkzzy8eqjo

    I have no idea if they were being wise, the airline crass, or if the parents are over-reacting.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    MattW said:

    Are we allowed one video as well?

    Fantastic video of a journey from Shrewsbury to Welshpool on the National Cycling / Walking Network. Rail trails, canal towpaths, quiet lanes, with a bit of A-road. 41 miles.

    Excellent observation and commentary along the way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT-prDPwvUk

    A video of a journey from Shrewsbury to Welshpool behind a pair of Class 37s on the Euston - Aberystwyth would be even better.
    Porn is not allowed. Twin porn is even more not allowed. But the coupling! Phwwooarr!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    New.

    "Sam Altman is not evil
    Sean Thomas"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sam-altman-is-not-evil/
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009

    Just back from a walk by the canal. I can report that one house had two Conservative signs prominently displayed in the front garden. Someone who actually wants Sir Philip Davies to be reelected. Remarkable.

    Not really.
    It was Sir Philip Davies's house you saw.
    I wasn't visiting Cheshire!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,602
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    You need credible deterrence, not trust.
    Perhaps; perhaps not. Then the question becomes what 'credible deterrence' looks like, given that Putin might well be thinking that NATO can be neutralised politically.
    If you are saying that we can't have peace until we can trust Russia, when will that be?
    If you don't trust Russia, do you trust the peace?
    Of course you don't trust the peace. That's why you invest in defence.
    And if your opponent does not think you are serious in your defence? ISTR we pledged defence of Poland in 1939, before Germany and Russia invaded. That did not work out well for us, or Poland.

    Deterrence only works if the enemy believes your deterrence has teeth. And NATO (mainly Tump and his acolytes) are giving exactly the opposite impression.
    It's mainly European NATO members that have been underinvesting in defence. Trump was right to call it out, and if they had responded while he was in office, Russia might have been deterred.
    Do you really believe that sh*t? Trump has fairly consistently undermined NATO.

    And remember Trump's comments on Putin's invasion: calling Putin a genius and savvy.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

    He also called on Russia to invade other NATO members:
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-comments-urging-russia-to-invade-delinquent-nato-members

    These are not comments designed to make an aggressor think the USA will stand behind one and all. Quite the opposite, in fact.
    You are exhibiting the problem by treating NATO as nothing more than a US protectorate rather than an alliance. If European members can't credibly defend Europe, that's their problem and Trump was right to point out the imbalance.
    Europe united CAN defend itself against Russia. Without US involvement.

    That doesn't mean it wasn't extremely foolish of Trump to suggest Putin invade NATO members. There would be considerable loss of life in repulsing Russia, on both sides.
    Trump's remarks made a Russian invasion less likely by forcing the countries in question to take defence slightly more seriously.
    Give over, not even you believe that nonsense.
    It's self-evidently true.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    New Statesman has the Tory share dropping by just 4.7% in West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, but by a mammoth 30.1% in Rishi's seat of Richmond & Northallerton.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480

    I'm wondering which PB poster will go ballistic and off-reservation this election. We usually have one.

    This year, with both the UK and USA elections, we might have a bumper crop... :)

    I have a real feeling that the right are going to go crackers when labour take office. The moderating effect of government is gone, the betrayal narrative is rampant, frustration is rife.... it wouldn't surprise me if something serious happens. Just like it did when Trump lost.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    Andy_JS said:

    New Statesman has the Tory share dropping by just 4.7% in West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, but by a mammoth 30.1% in Rishi's seat of Richmond & Northallerton.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts

    JOIN RISHI'S ROUGHNECKS! Service guarantees citizenship!

    Would you like to know more?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    Farooq said:

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    You need credible deterrence, not trust.
    Perhaps; perhaps not. Then the question becomes what 'credible deterrence' looks like, given that Putin might well be thinking that NATO can be neutralised politically.
    If you are saying that we can't have peace until we can trust Russia, when will that be?
    If you don't trust Russia, do you trust the peace?
    Of course you don't trust the peace. That's why you invest in defence.
    And if your opponent does not think you are serious in your defence? ISTR we pledged defence of Poland in 1939, before Germany and Russia invaded. That did not work out well for us, or Poland.

    Deterrence only works if the enemy believes your deterrence has teeth. And NATO (mainly Tump and his acolytes) are giving exactly the opposite impression.
    It's mainly European NATO members that have been underinvesting in defence. Trump was right to call it out, and if they had responded while he was in office, Russia might have been deterred.
    Do you really believe that sh*t? Trump has fairly consistently undermined NATO.

    And remember Trump's comments on Putin's invasion: calling Putin a genius and savvy.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

    He also called on Russia to invade other NATO members:
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-comments-urging-russia-to-invade-delinquent-nato-members

    These are not comments designed to make an aggressor think the USA will stand behind one and all. Quite the opposite, in fact.
    You are exhibiting the problem by treating NATO as nothing more than a US protectorate rather than an alliance. If European members can't credibly defend Europe, that's their problem and Trump was right to point out the imbalance.
    Europe united CAN defend itself against Russia. Without US involvement.

    That doesn't mean it wasn't extremely foolish of Trump to suggest Putin invade NATO members. There would be considerable loss of life in repulsing Russia, on both sides.
    Trump's remarks made a Russian invasion less likely by forcing the countries in question to take defence slightly more seriously.
    While in office, Trump did nothing to persuade Putin to pull back from Crimea or the Donbas.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    @sturdyAlex
    Tory MP stepping down, supporting Reform candidate. 👇🏼

    https://x.com/lucyallan/status/1795110435655463196
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Lucy Allan, Tory MP for Telford just endorsed the Reform candidate in her seat. Can’t remember if any Tories backed Goldsmith’s crew in 1997 but wouldn’t surprise me if they did. This campaign is going from bad to worse for Rishi.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    I'm wondering which PB poster will go ballistic and off-reservation this election. We usually have one.

    This year, with both the UK and USA elections, we might have a bumper crop... :)

    I have a real feeling that the right are going to go crackers when labour take office. The moderating effect of government is gone, the betrayal narrative is rampant, frustration is rife.... it wouldn't surprise me if something serious happens. Just like it did when Trump lost.
    The relevant right are 60 and older. And unarmed.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    @PollingReportUK
    LATEST SEAT PREDICTION: LIVINGSTON

    LAB
    @gregorpoynton
    GAIN FROM SNP
    @HannahB4LiviMP

    MAJ: 7.1%

    [UKPR Default]

    https://pollingreport.uk/seats/S14000095
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    ToryJim said:

    Lucy Allan, Tory MP for Telford just endorsed the Reform candidate in her seat. Can’t remember if any Tories backed Goldsmith’s crew in 1997 but wouldn’t surprise me if they did. This campaign is going from bad to worse for Rishi.

    "Out! Out! Out!" - the late Sir Jimmy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,602
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    You need credible deterrence, not trust.
    Perhaps; perhaps not. Then the question becomes what 'credible deterrence' looks like, given that Putin might well be thinking that NATO can be neutralised politically.
    If you are saying that we can't have peace until we can trust Russia, when will that be?
    If you don't trust Russia, do you trust the peace?
    Of course you don't trust the peace. That's why you invest in defence.
    And if your opponent does not think you are serious in your defence? ISTR we pledged defence of Poland in 1939, before Germany and Russia invaded. That did not work out well for us, or Poland.

    Deterrence only works if the enemy believes your deterrence has teeth. And NATO (mainly Tump and his acolytes) are giving exactly the opposite impression.
    It's mainly European NATO members that have been underinvesting in defence. Trump was right to call it out, and if they had responded while he was in office, Russia might have been deterred.
    Do you really believe that sh*t? Trump has fairly consistently undermined NATO.

    And remember Trump's comments on Putin's invasion: calling Putin a genius and savvy.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

    He also called on Russia to invade other NATO members:
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-comments-urging-russia-to-invade-delinquent-nato-members

    These are not comments designed to make an aggressor think the USA will stand behind one and all. Quite the opposite, in fact.
    You are exhibiting the problem by treating NATO as nothing more than a US protectorate rather than an alliance. If European members can't credibly defend Europe, that's their problem and Trump was right to point out the imbalance.
    Europe united CAN defend itself against Russia. Without US involvement.

    That doesn't mean it wasn't extremely foolish of Trump to suggest Putin invade NATO members. There would be considerable loss of life in repulsing Russia, on both sides.
    Trump's remarks made a Russian invasion less likely by forcing the countries in question to take defence slightly more seriously.
    Give over, not even you believe that nonsense.
    It's self-evidently true.
    No, it's not.
    Deterrence relies on the credible threat of retaliation. The more doubt there is of retaliation, the weaker the deterrence. The weaker the deterrence, the more likely the deterree (yes, deterree, I'm not backing down on the invented word) tries his luck.
    You don't fuck around with deterrence. The potential enemy has to know that you mean it.
    That's why it was right for Trump (and other US presidents) to warn European countries not to fuck around with deterrence by underinvesting in defence. To think that it's all about relying on Daddy America to protect us shows an infantilised mentality.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480

    Farooq said:

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    You need credible deterrence, not trust.
    Perhaps; perhaps not. Then the question becomes what 'credible deterrence' looks like, given that Putin might well be thinking that NATO can be neutralised politically.
    If you are saying that we can't have peace until we can trust Russia, when will that be?
    If you don't trust Russia, do you trust the peace?
    Of course you don't trust the peace. That's why you invest in defence.
    And if your opponent does not think you are serious in your defence? ISTR we pledged defence of Poland in 1939, before Germany and Russia invaded. That did not work out well for us, or Poland.

    Deterrence only works if the enemy believes your deterrence has teeth. And NATO (mainly Tump and his acolytes) are giving exactly the opposite impression.
    It's mainly European NATO members that have been underinvesting in defence. Trump was right to call it out, and if they had responded while he was in office, Russia might have been deterred.
    Do you really believe that sh*t? Trump has fairly consistently undermined NATO.

    And remember Trump's comments on Putin's invasion: calling Putin a genius and savvy.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

    He also called on Russia to invade other NATO members:
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-comments-urging-russia-to-invade-delinquent-nato-members

    These are not comments designed to make an aggressor think the USA will stand behind one and all. Quite the opposite, in fact.
    You are exhibiting the problem by treating NATO as nothing more than a US protectorate rather than an alliance. If European members can't credibly defend Europe, that's their problem and Trump was right to point out the imbalance.
    Europe united CAN defend itself against Russia. Without US involvement.

    That doesn't mean it wasn't extremely foolish of Trump to suggest Putin invade NATO members. There would be considerable loss of life in repulsing Russia, on both sides.
    Trump's remarks made a Russian invasion less likely by forcing the countries in question to take defence slightly more seriously.
    While in office, Trump did nothing to persuade Putin to pull back from Crimea or the Donbas.
    Thee brexiteers and expresserati are super eager for Trump, but they seem to not be aware that a Trump presidency will drive the UK into the arms of the EU at a much much accelerated rate. Equally, as a rejoiner, I am at odds with myself about Trump. I can't imagine a worse president, but his presidency will promote much much close british-eu relations across all policy domains... what a conundrum 🤷‍♂️
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    Andy_JS said:
    Jesus. That pen-profile of the illustrious author at the top of the article.

    Cleanse my eyes!

    It's paywalled, so I cannot read the whole thing. But the paragraph I can read contains a falsehood. Bull Gates was seen as being 'bad' throughout the eighties - witness Slashdot's Borg-Gates caricature on any MS story. MS were the bad guys; Apple okay; Linux et al the good guys.

    Gates was never really seen as being an 'amiable nerd making glitchy but intriguing software.' as the author wrongly claims.

    He was always a businessman, first and foremost. As was Jobs (who left the early technical work to Woz and others).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,602

    Farooq said:

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    You need credible deterrence, not trust.
    Perhaps; perhaps not. Then the question becomes what 'credible deterrence' looks like, given that Putin might well be thinking that NATO can be neutralised politically.
    If you are saying that we can't have peace until we can trust Russia, when will that be?
    If you don't trust Russia, do you trust the peace?
    Of course you don't trust the peace. That's why you invest in defence.
    And if your opponent does not think you are serious in your defence? ISTR we pledged defence of Poland in 1939, before Germany and Russia invaded. That did not work out well for us, or Poland.

    Deterrence only works if the enemy believes your deterrence has teeth. And NATO (mainly Tump and his acolytes) are giving exactly the opposite impression.
    It's mainly European NATO members that have been underinvesting in defence. Trump was right to call it out, and if they had responded while he was in office, Russia might have been deterred.
    Do you really believe that sh*t? Trump has fairly consistently undermined NATO.

    And remember Trump's comments on Putin's invasion: calling Putin a genius and savvy.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

    He also called on Russia to invade other NATO members:
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-comments-urging-russia-to-invade-delinquent-nato-members

    These are not comments designed to make an aggressor think the USA will stand behind one and all. Quite the opposite, in fact.
    You are exhibiting the problem by treating NATO as nothing more than a US protectorate rather than an alliance. If European members can't credibly defend Europe, that's their problem and Trump was right to point out the imbalance.
    Europe united CAN defend itself against Russia. Without US involvement.

    That doesn't mean it wasn't extremely foolish of Trump to suggest Putin invade NATO members. There would be considerable loss of life in repulsing Russia, on both sides.
    Trump's remarks made a Russian invasion less likely by forcing the countries in question to take defence slightly more seriously.
    While in office, Trump did nothing to persuade Putin to pull back from Crimea or the Donbas.
    Thank you for again highlighting the fact that Russia gained territory on Obama and Biden's watch and not while Trump was in power.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    I'm wondering which PB poster will go ballistic and off-reservation this election. We usually have one.

    This year, with both the UK and USA elections, we might have a bumper crop... :)

    I have a real feeling that the right are going to go crackers when labour take office. The moderating effect of government is gone, the betrayal narrative is rampant, frustration is rife.... it wouldn't surprise me if something serious happens. Just like it did when Trump lost.
    The UK is nowhere near that polarised.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    MattW said:

    Are we allowed one video as well?

    Fantastic video of a journey from Shrewsbury to Welshpool on the National Cycling / Walking Network. Rail trails, canal towpaths, quiet lanes, with a bit of A-road. 41 miles.

    Excellent observation and commentary along the way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT-prDPwvUk

    A video of a journey from Shrewsbury to Welshpool behind a pair of Class 37s on the Euston - Aberystwyth would be even better.
    "Triton" on the Scarborough North Bay railway. 20-inch gauge scale model of "Flying Scotsman" (I think).


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    I'm wondering which PB poster will go ballistic and off-reservation this election. We usually have one.

    This year, with both the UK and USA elections, we might have a bumper crop... :)

    I have a real feeling that the right are going to go crackers when labour take office. The moderating effect of government is gone, the betrayal narrative is rampant, frustration is rife.... it wouldn't surprise me if something serious happens. Just like it did when Trump lost.
    It didn't happen in 1997. Nowhere near.

    I'd actually argue the hard left / pro-Hamas section are more likely to go ballistic.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    ToryJim said:

    Lucy Allan, Tory MP for Telford just endorsed the Reform candidate in her seat. Can’t remember if any Tories backed Goldsmith’s crew in 1997 but wouldn’t surprise me if they did. This campaign is going from bad to worse for Rishi.

    A pity she didn't cross the floor just before the final PMQs, but every little helps.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Hola

    Any opinion polls out today do we know?

    Was thinking that because this is half-term week I’d rather wait until the end of next week to see how the tree is shaking
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480
    megasaur said:

    I'm wondering which PB poster will go ballistic and off-reservation this election. We usually have one.

    This year, with both the UK and USA elections, we might have a bumper crop... :)

    I have a real feeling that the right are going to go crackers when labour take office. The moderating effect of government is gone, the betrayal narrative is rampant, frustration is rife.... it wouldn't surprise me if something serious happens. Just like it did when Trump lost.
    The relevant right are 60 and older. And unarmed.
    That has been the electoral basis true, but there is a very aggressive core of young uneducated white men with no prospects who are extremely active on the far right....
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Andy_JS said:

    New Statesman has the Tory share dropping by just 4.7% in West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, but by a mammoth 30.1% in Rishi's seat of Richmond & Northallerton.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts

    He’s not rock solid safe in his own seat. If you look at electoral calculus it’s only c. 7%.

    And the mayoral may have given them some jitters
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    megasaur said:

    I'm wondering which PB poster will go ballistic and off-reservation this election. We usually have one.

    This year, with both the UK and USA elections, we might have a bumper crop... :)

    I have a real feeling that the right are going to go crackers when labour take office. The moderating effect of government is gone, the betrayal narrative is rampant, frustration is rife.... it wouldn't surprise me if something serious happens. Just like it did when Trump lost.
    The relevant right are 60 and older. And unarmed.
    That has been the electoral basis true, but there is a very aggressive core of young uneducated white men with no prospects who are extremely active on the far right....
    They are a problem no matter who is in government.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Andy_JS said:

    New Statesman has Labour winning 417 seats and 45%, similar to 1997.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts

    If you believe that then betting on the Liberal Democrats in Epson and Ewell is great value: 14/1 on SkyBet and Bet365.

    To be frank, it looks like that market has been mispriced.

    (Won't last for long now I've advertised it)
  • He was always a businessman, first and foremost. As was Jobs (who left the early technical work to Woz and others).

    Indeed. Gates was a never an amiable nerd, right from the start when Microsoft negotiated the DOS contract with IBM he was a ruthless businessman, always looking to push Microsoft's interests forward no matter what. Many of the tactics MS employed under Gates were reminiscent of the old robber barons, and courts punished the company accordingly in the end.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,517
    RobD said:

    I'm wondering which PB poster will go ballistic and off-reservation this election. We usually have one.

    This year, with both the UK and USA elections, we might have a bumper crop... :)

    I have a real feeling that the right are going to go crackers when labour take office. The moderating effect of government is gone, the betrayal narrative is rampant, frustration is rife.... it wouldn't surprise me if something serious happens. Just like it did when Trump lost.
    The UK is nowhere near that polarised.
    Plus the rather obvious point that Trump was the candidate of the radical right. Sunak is not. He is not really the candidate of anyone except the 'my party right or wrong' Tory core. He is as much a target of the supposed betrayal narrative as Starmer - more so even.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    @PhilipJCollins1

    There are a number of reasons why this early election was a terrible decision by Sunak but even if you put the case for the defence it is obvious that the Tories weren't ready for it.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,938
    Andy_JS said:

    New Statesman has the Tory share dropping by just 4.7% in West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, but by a mammoth 30.1% in Rishi's seat of Richmond & Northallerton.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts

    "Were you up for Rishi?" would be an extraordinary moment on the night.

    Unlikely, but as I've said previously I've heard from friends who live round those parts he isn't very popular as a local MP.

    And it saves him taking the Chiltern Hundreds a month later so he can be in Silicon Valley by September, so it's probably a win-win for him...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Scott_xP said:

    @sturdyAlex
    Tory MP stepping down, supporting Reform candidate. 👇🏼

    https://x.com/lucyallan/status/1795110435655463196

    Thanks, Lucy. That's really helpful.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    edited May 27

    Scott_xP said:

    @harry_horton
    PM Rishi Sunak playing football at Chesham Utd in Chesham & Amersham - a seat the Lib Dems took off the Conservatives in a by-election three years ago.

    https://x.com/harry_horton/status/1795097332624548102

    @KevinASchofield
    Labour source: “The worst encounter between a politician and cones since John Major’s hotline.”

    He does better than I likely would have.

    I agree with the general thesis that some of the criticism of Rishi is pathetic. The main reason for not voting for him is that he has appalling political judgment not because his dribbling skills are lacking.

    In terms of campaigning, Sunak is dropping inexorably into the Ed Miliband zone. It's not a good place to be.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Andy_JS said:
    If I were that Sean Thomas fella, I'd be having a strong word with the guy who drew the sketch of him at the top. Why was he drawn with that nosebleed?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,602
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Whenever somebody asks what a victory for Ukraine is, a few people call us appeasers.

    Really? Care to give examples?

    I happily call some people on here 'appeasers' - because the parallels are all too obvious. I don't think I've ever called you one, and particularly not for asking what a victory for Ukraine looks like. As I regularly ask that question myself.

    But the idea that freezing the lines where they are constitutes a lasting peace is ignoring not only the lessons from the 1930s, but from Putin's time in power. Putin does not want peace; at least at a cost that is acceptable. Again, the parallels with 1937 and 1938 are obvious.

    His latest peace 'proposal' is an example. Give him everything he already has, with no guarantees from him or Russia. Yet some have swallowed that load if sh*t whole as if constitutes a meaningful peace.

    You can only have lasting peace when both sides want a lasting peace. On Ukraine's side, they want one. On Putin's... the rhetoric says otherwise.

    You wouldn't trust Hitler's or Stalin's word. Why trust Putin's?
    Peace is the absence of fighting. It doesn't have to involve trust or reconciliation.
    If it is to be meaningful, it has to ensure that one side (cough) Russia (cough) does not end the 'peace' in a couple of years when they have built up their forces once more. So yes, a certain amount of trust is necessary.

    And we cannot trust Russia. Their actions, and their words, indicate that. They are a fascistic, imperialist state.
    You need credible deterrence, not trust.
    Perhaps; perhaps not. Then the question becomes what 'credible deterrence' looks like, given that Putin might well be thinking that NATO can be neutralised politically.
    If you are saying that we can't have peace until we can trust Russia, when will that be?
    If you don't trust Russia, do you trust the peace?
    Of course you don't trust the peace. That's why you invest in defence.
    And if your opponent does not think you are serious in your defence? ISTR we pledged defence of Poland in 1939, before Germany and Russia invaded. That did not work out well for us, or Poland.

    Deterrence only works if the enemy believes your deterrence has teeth. And NATO (mainly Tump and his acolytes) are giving exactly the opposite impression.
    It's mainly European NATO members that have been underinvesting in defence. Trump was right to call it out, and if they had responded while he was in office, Russia might have been deterred.
    Do you really believe that sh*t? Trump has fairly consistently undermined NATO.

    And remember Trump's comments on Putin's invasion: calling Putin a genius and savvy.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

    He also called on Russia to invade other NATO members:
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-comments-urging-russia-to-invade-delinquent-nato-members

    These are not comments designed to make an aggressor think the USA will stand behind one and all. Quite the opposite, in fact.
    You are exhibiting the problem by treating NATO as nothing more than a US protectorate rather than an alliance. If European members can't credibly defend Europe, that's their problem and Trump was right to point out the imbalance.
    Europe united CAN defend itself against Russia. Without US involvement.

    That doesn't mean it wasn't extremely foolish of Trump to suggest Putin invade NATO members. There would be considerable loss of life in repulsing Russia, on both sides.
    Trump's remarks made a Russian invasion less likely by forcing the countries in question to take defence slightly more seriously.
    Give over, not even you believe that nonsense.
    It's self-evidently true.
    No, it's not.
    Deterrence relies on the credible threat of retaliation. The more doubt there is of retaliation, the weaker the deterrence. The weaker the deterrence, the more likely the deterree (yes, deterree, I'm not backing down on the invented word) tries his luck.
    You don't fuck around with deterrence. The potential enemy has to know that you mean it.
    That's why it was right for Trump (and other US presidents) to warn European countries not to fuck around with deterrence by underinvesting in defence. To think that it's all about relying on Daddy America to protect us shows an infantilised mentality.
    But this goes way beyond talking about underinvestment. You can have those conversations in private. You can even have them in public without actually ENCOURAGING the person you are supposed to be deterring from making war.

    It's like thinking your neighbour should pull their weight in the neighbourhood watch duties, and when you feel they aren't doing it, you go to the dodgiest boozer you can find and tell all the lowlifes to rob their house and you won't stop them.
    Whatever point you had is washed away by the strenuous, towering stupidity of the way you went about it. Trump is a fucking idiot.
    Having the conversation in public makes it much more effective because it's more likely to be listened to and it still leaves the opponent questioning whether you really mean it.

    The idea that if the US said nothing in public, Putin would never question their commitment to sending troops to recapture every inch of NATO territory is extremely naive.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    edited May 27
    dixiedean said:

    National Service 18-year-old’s would be paid stipend, Sunak reveals while answering questions on TikTok.

    https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1795092957185360253

    Well it's an improvement.

    Not making it up on the fly, oh no, not at all.
    Wait.
    I thought a Royal Commission was going to work out the details?
    So. As it stands.
    670 000 18 year olds.
    Of whom 30 000 "brightest and best" (wonder what walk of life they'll be from?) will be paid a yet to be determined sum to join the Forces for a year and given priority in education and employment prospects.
    The firmly rejected other 640 000 will effectively be unpaid, presumably unmonitored, agency workers for the State (and God knows who else) one weekend a month for two years, doing Christ alone knows what.*

    *As of 3:42 Monday.
    30,000 is less than 5%. Are the other 2% of privately educated 18 year olds going to have to compulsory-volunteer along with the oiks?

    Poor sods.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Scott_xP said:

    @PhilipJCollins1

    There are a number of reasons why this early election was a terrible decision by Sunak but even if you put the case for the defence it is obvious that the Tories weren't ready for it.

    The only way to keep the opposition guessing is to keep your own MPs guessing as to the date of the election.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Cookie said:
    Can't quite get my head around this one.
    If they're 18 then by definition they aren't children.
    Did Sunak really take time off to come up with this?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    @alexmassie
    The Conservatives Have Already Given Up. The Tory campaign only makes sense if you remember that it is not actually about winning the election.

    https://alexmassie.substack.com/p/the-conservatives-have-already-given
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    edited May 27
    ToryJim said:

    Lucy Allan, Tory MP for Telford just endorsed the Reform candidate in her seat. Can’t remember if any Tories backed Goldsmith’s crew in 1997 but wouldn’t surprise me if they did. This campaign is going from bad to worse for Rishi.

    George Gardiner, Tory MP for Reigate, stood for the Referendum Party at the 1997 election after defecting. Not quite the same thing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Fw5RpcztmM
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    @TomLarkinSky

    Day 5 so far:

    - Outgoing Tory MP backing Reform to win her seat
    - CCHQ accidentally emailed senior Tory MPs saying they weren't working hard enough
    - An actual minister criticised the party's first big policy announcement
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    He was always a businessman, first and foremost. As was Jobs (who left the early technical work to Woz and others).

    Indeed. Gates was a never an amiable nerd, right from the start when Microsoft negotiated the DOS contract with IBM he was a ruthless businessman, always looking to push Microsoft's interests forward no matter what. Many of the tactics MS employed under Gates were reminiscent of the old robber barons, and courts punished the company accordingly in the end.
    I wouldn't go quite that far - I've always had a bit of a soft spot for Gates. But the way he and Ballmer treated Paul Allen was terrible.

    And if you think what MS did was bad, then what do you think of Apple's behaviour? But Apple is trendy and cool; MS never was...
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:
    Can't quite get my head around this one.
    If they're 18 then by definition they aren't children.
    Did Sunak really take time off to come up with this?
    it's a half baked idea from a focus group/think tank. In government it's much harder to have new ideas truly fleshed out as propositions to the public because you're too busy running the country. This is made worse by having a disfunctional party to lead at the same time.

    Labour on the other hand have much more time to formulate their policies as most of the time all they are doing is reacting to events (and the government) and not running the country. That is now the main risk for Labour, that the manifesto is too thin or they've not thought things through with the right people.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    edited May 27
    Scott_xP said:

    @sturdyAlex
    Tory MP stepping down, supporting Reform candidate. 👇🏼

    https://x.com/lucyallan/status/1795110435655463196

    ToryJim said:

    Lucy Allan, Tory MP for Telford just endorsed the Reform candidate in her seat. Can’t remember if any Tories backed Goldsmith’s crew in 1997 but wouldn’t surprise me if they did. This campaign is going from bad to worse for Rishi.

    Not surprised tbh, but why anyone in Telford would listen to their hitherto absentee MP is beyond me.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Scott_xP said:

    @alexmassie
    The Conservatives Have Already Given Up. The Tory campaign only makes sense if you remember that it is not actually about winning the election.

    https://alexmassie.substack.com/p/the-conservatives-have-already-given

    It's not about winning the election. It's about doing as badly as possible. 😊
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    kyf_100 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    New Statesman has the Tory share dropping by just 4.7% in West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, but by a mammoth 30.1% in Rishi's seat of Richmond & Northallerton.

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts

    "Were you up for Rishi?" would be an extraordinary moment on the night.

    Unlikely, but as I've said previously I've heard from friends who live round those parts he isn't very popular as a local MP.

    And it saves him taking the Chiltern Hundreds a month later so he can be in Silicon Valley by September, so it's probably a win-win for him...
    Please God, yes.
    Also, there’s precedent for with Nick Clegg losing his seat before heading off for more lucrative pastures.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555

    Scott_xP said:

    @sturdyAlex
    Tory MP stepping down, supporting Reform candidate. 👇🏼

    https://x.com/lucyallan/status/1795110435655463196

    ToryJim said:

    Lucy Allan, Tory MP for Telford just endorsed the Reform candidate in her seat. Can’t remember if any Tories backed Goldsmith’s crew in 1997 but wouldn’t surprise me if they did. This campaign is going from bad to worse for Rishi.

    Not surprised tbh, but why anyone in Telford would listen to their hitherto absentee MP is beyond me.
    Not sure the Reform candidate will welcome her endorsement!
This discussion has been closed.