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The next chapter of the Scottish play? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128

    Ken Burns not mincing his words. Unfortunately I fear that the folk addicted to opioid Trump won't be listening.

    https://x.com/jason_kint/status/1794573782130344300

    You wouldn’t want to mince such sesquipedalian words! But I agree with him entirely.
    That sounds like a witty, verbose cyclist.

    "sesquipedalian"
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    What projections ?
    I'm forecasting nothing for the next Labour government. It could be anything from a moderate success to a disaster.

    The only thing I'm reasonably certain of is that the Tories are done. And are unlikely to improve much in opposition for the foreseeable future.
    Maybe we'll surprise you.
    The Tories might surprise us on the downside in this election.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    What projections ?
    I'm forecasting nothing for the next Labour government. It could be anything from a moderate success to a disaster.

    The only thing I'm reasonably certain of is that the Tories are done. And are unlikely to improve much in opposition for the foreseeable future.
    Maybe we'll surprise you.
    What are your plans to deliver that improvement in the Conservative Party? Do you think there’s a particular new leader who could lead the way? Or a policy emphasis?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    Loose women poll

    Should we bring back National Service

    Yes 30%

    No 70%

    I did wonder about the effect of NS on the 'mum's vote'. Not a parent myself I can't really say but do parents of teenage children really want their kids lives being dictated in this way?
    Not to mention grandparents.
    Should imagine there's a large constituency in favour of NS for other people's relatives.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    See.
    The continual banging on about "no plan" emanating from CCHQ is pure projection. Jung pointed this out.
    What precisely is the Tory plan for five more years?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    dixiedean said:

    See.
    The continual banging on about "no plan" emanating from CCHQ is pure projection. Jung pointed this out.
    What precisely is the Tory plan for five more years?

    Eventually there will be a Labour manifesto outlining what they intend to do. “No Plan” messaging cuts across any attempt to attack that manifesto.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    European countries are getting serious.

    Spain is set to announce a new massive 1.13 billion Euro ($1.23 billion) military aid package for Ukraine.

    The package will include roughly 12 additional PATRIOT interceptors, 19 Leopard 2A4s, and a large number of additional systems procured from the Spanish defense industry.

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1794986685085757806

    No longer are they just sending obsolete kit from reserves:
    "..Most of the funding will go to Spanish companies to procure new equipment for Ukraine.."

    War, what is it good for absolutely nothing domestic arms manufacturers....
    South Korea is an interesting case - by selling its weapons abroad, it keeps the production lines open and running. With a large quantity of inventory ready to go at any time.

    Which means that they are really, really ready. If the North goes South....
    I think it's the other way round with S Korea.
    It's only recently they've become such a large arms exporter, and that's on the back of having had to maintain arms development and manufacturing capacity to deal with the threat from the north.

    It helps that their economy is so heavily skewed towards manufacturing.

    But you're right that they're now reaping the benefits. With the exception of the KF21, which hasn't yet attracted any significant partners.
    They've been trying to really push arms exports for years. The French, German and American behaviour over arming Ukraine has really made a mark on the international arms market.

    Poland is setting up to buy a fleet of Korean tanks on the basis that the factory will be built in Poland and they will have ultimate ownership of the tanks (no secondary export restrictions).
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    De gustibus, etc.

    I can't honestly think of any politician I'd ever describe as sexy.
    Sanna Marin? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-12412923/Sanna-Marin-festivals-bralettes-mini-skirts-divorcing-husband.html

    Cicciolina?
  • Is the Loose Women poll a proper poll?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    What projections ?
    I'm forecasting nothing for the next Labour government. It could be anything from a moderate success to a disaster.

    The only thing I'm reasonably certain of is that the Tories are done. And are unlikely to improve much in opposition for the foreseeable future.
    Maybe we'll surprise you.
    What are your plans to deliver that improvement in the Conservative Party? Do you think there’s a particular new leader who could lead the way? Or a policy emphasis?
    I have lots of ideas, some of which I've shared on here before, but now is not the time.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    You can think someone sexy without believing they’re a good politician or agreeing with their policies. I think Steve Baker is a hunk and Nadine Dorries a hottie, but I strongly disagree with their politics.
    Maybe so; they're all swipe lefts for me but chàcun a son goût.
    My point was more that after 4+ years of jowly rhetoric and that bumble bee trapped in a bottle voice people are suddenly coming out for hotty Starmer, something I'd not noticed as a thing before. Sight of the finishing line getting the blood pumping?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    What projections ?
    I'm forecasting nothing for the next Labour government. It could be anything from a moderate success to a disaster.

    The only thing I'm reasonably certain of is that the Tories are done. And are unlikely to improve much in opposition for the foreseeable future.
    Maybe we'll surprise you.
    Maybe you will.

    Maybe Labour will wholeheartedly adopt my favoured housing policy in they'd first year if government.

    I'm not holding my breath, though.

  • https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246/photo/1

    CCHQ appears to have accidentally emailed around its internal criticisms of the early campaign to activists across the country

    The party is completely dysfunctional. This is so very basic.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    What projections ?
    I'm forecasting nothing for the next Labour government. It could be anything from a moderate success to a disaster.

    The only thing I'm reasonably certain of is that the Tories are done. And are unlikely to improve much in opposition for the foreseeable future.
    Maybe we'll surprise you.
    What are your plans to deliver that improvement in the Conservative Party? Do you think there’s a particular new leader who could lead the way? Or a policy emphasis?
    I have lots of ideas, some of which I've shared on here before, but now is not the time.
    If a General Election campaign is not the time to share yours and your party’s ideas, then when is?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    You can think someone sexy without believing they’re a good politician or agreeing with their policies. I think Steve Baker is a hunk and Nadine Dorries a hottie, but I strongly disagree with their politics.
    Maybe so; they're all swipe lefts for me but chàcun a son goût.
    My point was more that after 4+ years of jowly rhetoric and that bumble bee trapped in a bottle voice people are suddenly coming out for hotty Starmer, something I'd not noticed as a thing before. Sight of the finishing line getting the blood pumping?
    I remember the Mr Darcy comments from 4 years ago.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    Steve Baker reposting Hodges on the NS policy.

    Worth using my photo ration on:

    image

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1794691621323468913
  • I think Labour have completely been allowed to set the narrative on this policy.

    They've said it's a vote for or against putting your child into the army and have branded it as such.

    I think for the first time I am prepared to say it, this policy will be perceived as badly as we thought.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    What projections ?
    I'm forecasting nothing for the next Labour government. It could be anything from a moderate success to a disaster.

    The only thing I'm reasonably certain of is that the Tories are done. And are unlikely to improve much in opposition for the foreseeable future.
    Maybe we'll surprise you.
    What are your plans to deliver that improvement in the Conservative Party? Do you think there’s a particular new leader who could lead the way? Or a policy emphasis?
    I have lots of ideas, some of which I've shared on here before, but now is not the time.
    If a General Election campaign is not the time to share yours and your party’s ideas, then when is?
    Tbf, I was asking about post-defeat, in opposition, plans.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    I must be young at heart since it seems to be my generation which thinks this is an excellent idea (having skipped it ourselves) but I think that the last thing our young require is another delay in starting out on life. We already have people staying at school until they are 18 and then the majority going on to University or college for another 3-4 years, more in some cases. So, right now, you are looking for your first job in your early 20s. Are we really going to make it mid 20s and what are the pension implications of that?

    Its a silly idea. Much better to spend the money giving training so that our young can start to fill our skills gaps ASAP. National service or apprenticeships? It's a no brainer for every sort of reason.

    I must sadly agree. One of the really sad things we have done over the past decades is to blur the line between children and adults, with the inevitable infantilized adults. Education is a process designed to enable children to become independent when they achieve adulthood, so that they can get a job, form relationships, have children of their own, buy a house, and raise them. By pushing each stage back into their 20s and 30s we are disabling them.

    Your apprenticeships idea is a good one and would help cure this problem.

    We already have an Apprenticeship Tax raising ~£3bn a year, running at 0.5% of annual pay bill for employers paying more than £3m a year in payroll.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pay-apprenticeship-levy
    When I was at UCL in the 90s, we had a good half dozen in the class of mature students. People who failed to go to university, failed the first degree etc.

    They all did very well, IIRC.

    In my last year, we had a hilarious chap from the oil rigs. He'd made a pile and decided to take three years out to get a degree. Mad Max biker - was parking his Harley next to Dean Vernon Wormer's official car within about ten minutes of arriving (he just chatted to security and they were his best mates) - all the piercings and tattoos.

    His plan was to do the degree, then back to the rigs and do a Masters/PhD while working. He figured that between being a roughneck and having all the academics he would zoom up the ladder.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Can anyone beat that? Has anyone else had an unusual skin condition with a strange name that formed a simulacrum of the face of a barely remembered political figure on a particularly intimate part of their anatomy?

    Just a reminder, Leon.

    Your photo quota today is zero :wink:
    A cousin of mine who worked at Halford’s suffered a sporadic but sharp case of vitiligo where the unmistakeable image of Donald Dewer making a speech would appear on his buttocks, but only during the winter
    Halfords have a zero enforcement (or even) care policy on shoplifting. I don't think I have paid for a 10mm socket for about five years.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Dura_Ace said:

    In other F-16 news, Ukrainian Crew Training Plan C looks like it's finally coming together. Plan A was a multi-national centre in Romania. Nobody would pay for it. Plan B was Denmark which has gone very murky and produced no crew. Plan C is apparently Arizona ANG.

    https://www.airandspaceforces.com/first-ukrainian-pilots-graduate-us-f-16-training/

    End of the year, apparently. They can do the flyover at DJT's inauguration before they head east.

    There are various recent reports.
    The handful of new pilots trained here are starting on fast jets in France.
    https://english.nv.ua/nation/10-young-pilots-undergo-training-in-france-to-master-f-16-50413056.html

    Presumably a training capability more independent of the US will develop over time.
    Part and parcel of the increase in European defence spending.
    Don't expect @Dura_Ace to have accurate intel on these matters. I'm also surprised that someone who claims to have been involved in the military is surprised that the number of combatants produced for an active conflict is 'murky'.. ;)

    https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/05/24/ukrainian-f-16-pilots-stand-ready-unknown-number-of-pilots-return/

    +others.
    Yes Ultra.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    I think Labour have completely been allowed to set the narrative on this policy.

    They've said it's a vote for or against putting your child into the army and have branded it as such.

    I think for the first time I am prepared to say it, this policy will be perceived as badly as we thought.

    I thought you said it would be a plus for the Tories?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    dixiedean said:

    Loose women poll

    Should we bring back National Service

    Yes 30%

    No 70%

    I did wonder about the effect of NS on the 'mum's vote'. Not a parent myself I can't really say but do parents of teenage children really want their kids lives being dictated in this way?
    Not to mention grandparents.
    Should imagine there's a large constituency in favour of NS for other people's relatives.
    The over-60s without children/grandchildren maybe? Oh, hang on, that's me... No, I still think it's a crap idea.
  • Takeaways from Starmer's first campaign speech:
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 big on Englishness
    💷 there *is no money left*
    🪜 anything not in 'first steps' is low priority
    🎒 private school parents "work hard"
    🛥️ he wants to stop the boats
    ⚔️ not quite ruling out national service

    https://x.com/HugoGye/status/1795061748216615231
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    What projections ?
    I'm forecasting nothing for the next Labour government. It could be anything from a moderate success to a disaster.

    The only thing I'm reasonably certain of is that the Tories are done. And are unlikely to improve much in opposition for the foreseeable future.
    Maybe we'll surprise you.
    What are your plans to deliver that improvement in the Conservative Party? Do you think there’s a particular new leader who could lead the way? Or a policy emphasis?
    I have lots of ideas, some of which I've shared on here before, but now is not the time.
    If a General Election campaign is not the time to share yours and your party’s ideas, then when is?
    Tbf, I was asking about post-defeat, in opposition, plans.
    Apologies. As clear as it seems at the moment though there remains the strong possibility of a Conservative led Govt after the election and it would be good to know what they propose
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Thread:

    Labour and the Tories have both said they can raise £6bn from cracking down on tax avoidance and evasion. How plausible is this?

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/1795034992134787330?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    I must be young at heart since it seems to be my generation which thinks this is an excellent idea (having skipped it ourselves) but I think that the last thing our young require is another delay in starting out on life. We already have people staying at school until they are 18 and then the majority going on to University or college for another 3-4 years, more in some cases. So, right now, you are looking for your first job in your early 20s. Are we really going to make it mid 20s and what are the pension implications of that?

    Its a silly idea. Much better to spend the money giving training so that our young can start to fill our skills gaps ASAP. National service or apprenticeships? It's a no brainer for every sort of reason.

    I must sadly agree. One of the really sad things we have done over the past decades is to blur the line between children and adults, with the inevitable infantilized adults. Education is a process designed to enable children to become independent when they achieve adulthood, so that they can get a job, form relationships, have children of their own, buy a house, and raise them. By pushing each stage back into their 20s and 30s we are disabling them.

    Your apprenticeships idea is a good one and would help cure this problem.

    We already have an Apprenticeship Tax raising ~£3bn a year, running at 0.5% of annual pay bill for employers paying more than £3m a year in payroll.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pay-apprenticeship-levy
    When I was at UCL in the 90s, we had a good half dozen in the class of mature students. People who failed to go to university, failed the first degree etc.

    They all did very well, IIRC.

    In my last year, we had a hilarious chap from the oil rigs. He'd made a pile and decided to take three years out to get a degree. Mad Max biker - was parking his Harley next to Dean Vernon Wormer's official car within about ten minutes of arriving (he just chatted to security and they were his best mates) - all the piercings and tattoos.

    His plan was to do the degree, then back to the rigs and do a Masters/PhD while working. He figured that between being a roughneck and having all the academics he would zoom up the ladder.
    I’m at UCL now and always look forward to having mature students on our Master’s programme, although I would also caution that doing a PhD part-time while working is tough.
  • I think Labour have completely been allowed to set the narrative on this policy.

    They've said it's a vote for or against putting your child into the army and have branded it as such.

    I think for the first time I am prepared to say it, this policy will be perceived as badly as we thought.

    I thought you said it would be a plus for the Tories?
    I genuinely thought it would but my mind has been changed - and I am happy to say when it has. Is that okay with you?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    edited May 27

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246/photo/1

    CCHQ appears to have accidentally emailed around its internal criticisms of the early campaign to activists across the country

    The party is completely dysfunctional. This is so very basic.

    Conservative ministers and MPs have failed to “get behind” campaigning and have refused to knock on doors, a leaked memo from Tory headquarters sent days into the general election campaign has revealed...

    The “key theme” identified in the document was that candidates had failed to “get behind” the campaign, with some on holiday or refusing to knock on doors.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/30276d4d-1dc0-4bb4-887b-013decfeb7b5

    So, panel... Accidentally or accidentally-on-purpose?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @sharonodea

    I asked ChatGPT to suggest four completely mad ideas the UK’s Conservative Party could include in their manifesto.

    I fully expect to see at least one of these announced before the week is out.

    https://x.com/sharonodea/status/1794754014686711816

    National Tea Time. Excellent. Made me LOL.
    The tea at 4pm proposal is fairly sound, but it needs a R4 Today gotcha interview about whether this is enforced by custodial sentences are merely a fine. There is also the question of how to afford two sorts of cake (Victoria sponge and coffee and walnut for me please) what with the cost of living and all that.
    My 2 favourite cakes. You've got my vote.
    I thought Dundee cake would be your thing?
    A dyed in the wool unionist , don't be silly, he mimics the colonial masters in London. Tea at 4pm with a picture of the latest inbred and a union jack proudly displayed on the wall and God save the Inbred intoned before supping.
    You been hacking my Siri again Malcolm?
    :D:D
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246/photo/1

    CCHQ appears to have accidentally emailed around its internal criticisms of the early campaign to activists across the country

    The party is completely dysfunctional. This is so very basic.

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246/photo/1

    CCHQ appears to have accidentally emailed around its internal criticisms of the early campaign to activists across the country

    The party is completely dysfunctional. This is so very basic.

    Am I the only one who would be extremely interested in reading the "unvarnished thoughts" of Conservative staff?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    MJW said:

    One Downing Street insider called the 61- year-old Labour leader "Sleepy Keir", an apparent attempt to link him in the public's mind to the US's 81-year-old President Joe Biden, dubbed "Sleepy Joe" by Donald Trump. "Campaigns are tough, tiring things and it's understandable that he may be weary," said a Tory campaign official. "But being prime minister is a 24/7 job which requires stamina."

    https://x.com/JamesFitzJourno/status/1795015985461653708/photo/1

    They really are very bad at this, considering whatever you think of him Starmer looks a young 61, famously plays football every week and kind of looks like a Thunderbirds character gone slightly to seed.

    If it were Corbyn it would make sense, if still daft. But not here.

    Plus, what a way to insult the only people in the country still voting for you as past it.
    I honestly think SKS is quite a sexy man. I say as a straight man.
    Some will believe you
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    I think Labour have completely been allowed to set the narrative on this policy.

    They've said it's a vote for or against putting your child into the army and have branded it as such.

    I think for the first time I am prepared to say it, this policy will be perceived as badly as we thought.

    I thought you said it would be a plus for the Tories?
    I genuinely thought it would but my mind has been changed - and I am happy to say when it has. Is that okay with you?
    Oh, OK. It was a genuine question, as I thought you had had a different view.
  • I think Labour have completely been allowed to set the narrative on this policy.

    They've said it's a vote for or against putting your child into the army and have branded it as such.

    I think for the first time I am prepared to say it, this policy will be perceived as badly as we thought.

    I thought you said it would be a plus for the Tories?
    I genuinely thought it would but my mind has been changed - and I am happy to say when it has. Is that okay with you?
    Oh, OK. It was a genuine question, as I thought you had had a different view.
    I think if the Tories had been able to set the narrative it may have gone over well but the truth is that Labour has succeeded in branding it as "send your child off to the army". And that's it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700

    Thread:

    Labour and the Tories have both said they can raise £6bn from cracking down on tax avoidance and evasion. How plausible is this?

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/1795034992134787330?

    "Dan Neidle
    @DanNeidle
    ·
    1h
    Most of the tax gap is small businesses receiving payment in cash and not filing properly (accidentally or deliberately). This is not a very politically convenient answer, but it is nevertheless the truth."

    As far as I can see this practice is absolutely rife amongst small traders like builders and plumbers.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Takeaways from Starmer's first campaign speech:
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 big on Englishness
    💷 there *is no money left*
    🪜 anything not in 'first steps' is low priority
    🎒 private school parents "work hard"
    🛥️ he wants to stop the boats
    ⚔️ not quite ruling out national service

    https://x.com/HugoGye/status/1795061748216615231

    He seems to be chasing the same mentally defective boomers as the tories. Do those fuckers all get 5 votes each or something?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,938
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Can anyone beat that? Has anyone else had an unusual skin condition with a strange name that formed a simulacrum of the face of a barely remembered political figure on a particularly intimate part of their anatomy?

    Just a reminder, Leon.

    Your photo quota today is zero :wink:
    A cousin of mine who worked at Halford’s suffered a sporadic but sharp case of vitiligo where the unmistakeable image of Donald Dewer making a speech would appear on his buttocks, but only during the winter
    Halfords have a zero enforcement (or even) care policy on shoplifting. I don't think I have paid for a 10mm socket for about five years.
    Don't try it at B&Q. I was amazed last month to see someone actually get accosted by security for shoplifting.

    I had assumed their outrageous prices were a result of a very laissez faire policy on shrinkage.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246/photo/1

    CCHQ appears to have accidentally emailed around its internal criticisms of the early campaign to activists across the country

    The party is completely dysfunctional. This is so very basic.

    Conservative ministers and MPs have failed to “get behind” campaigning and have refused to knock on doors, a leaked memo from Tory headquarters sent days into the general election campaign has revealed...

    The “key theme” identified in the document was that candidates had failed to “get behind” the campaign, with some on holiday or refusing to knock on doors.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/30276d4d-1dc0-4bb4-887b-013decfeb7b5

    So, panel... Accidentally or accidentally-on-purpose?
    The GE seems to have come as a complete surprise to the people who called it.
    But not to the Opposition.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    Thread:

    Labour and the Tories have both said they can raise £6bn from cracking down on tax avoidance and evasion. How plausible is this?

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/1795034992134787330?

    Most of the tax gap is small businesses receiving payment in cash and not filing properly (accidentally or deliberately). This is not a very politically convenient answer, but it is nevertheless the truth.

    Simples: we just need to BAN CASH!
  • dixiedean said:

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246/photo/1

    CCHQ appears to have accidentally emailed around its internal criticisms of the early campaign to activists across the country

    The party is completely dysfunctional. This is so very basic.

    Conservative ministers and MPs have failed to “get behind” campaigning and have refused to knock on doors, a leaked memo from Tory headquarters sent days into the general election campaign has revealed...

    The “key theme” identified in the document was that candidates had failed to “get behind” the campaign, with some on holiday or refusing to knock on doors.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/30276d4d-1dc0-4bb4-887b-013decfeb7b5

    So, panel... Accidentally or accidentally-on-purpose?
    The GE seems to have come as a complete surprise to the people who called it.
    But not to the Opposition.
    My view is that Labour thought it was going to be called for May and so planned for that.

    The Tories assumed it would be in October but Sunak seems to have always planned May or July but doesn't seem to have told his own party.

    At this point it is pointless trying to understand why Sunak does things. He doesn't make logical decisions, he just does things.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    dixiedean said:

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246/photo/1

    CCHQ appears to have accidentally emailed around its internal criticisms of the early campaign to activists across the country

    The party is completely dysfunctional. This is so very basic.

    Conservative ministers and MPs have failed to “get behind” campaigning and have refused to knock on doors, a leaked memo from Tory headquarters sent days into the general election campaign has revealed...

    The “key theme” identified in the document was that candidates had failed to “get behind” the campaign, with some on holiday or refusing to knock on doors.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/30276d4d-1dc0-4bb4-887b-013decfeb7b5

    So, panel... Accidentally or accidentally-on-purpose?
    The GE seems to have come as a complete surprise to the people who called it.
    But not to the Opposition.
    It definitely suggests that they were going for the Autumn but something
    changed Rishi’s mind.

    I am not sure we’ll find out what that something is, definitively, before the GE but it will come out in the fullness of time.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212

    Thread:

    Labour and the Tories have both said they can raise £6bn from cracking down on tax avoidance and evasion. How plausible is this?

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/1795034992134787330?

    Most of the tax gap is small businesses receiving payment in cash and not filing properly (accidentally or deliberately). This is not a very politically convenient answer, but it is nevertheless the truth.

    Simples: we just need to BAN CASH!
    Implement my plan to end the black economy. And stop the boats, as a minor side effect.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Dura_Ace said:

    In other F-16 news, Ukrainian Crew Training Plan C looks like it's finally coming together. Plan A was a multi-national centre in Romania. Nobody would pay for it. Plan B was Denmark which has gone very murky and produced no crew. Plan C is apparently Arizona ANG.

    https://www.airandspaceforces.com/first-ukrainian-pilots-graduate-us-f-16-training/

    End of the year, apparently. They can do the flyover at DJT's inauguration before they head east.

    There are various recent reports.
    The handful of new pilots trained here are starting on fast jets in France.
    https://english.nv.ua/nation/10-young-pilots-undergo-training-in-france-to-master-f-16-50413056.html

    Presumably a training capability more independent of the US will develop over time.
    Part and parcel of the increase in European defence spending.
    Don't expect @Dura_Ace to have accurate intel on these matters. I'm also surprised that someone who claims to have been involved in the military is surprised that the number of combatants produced for an active conflict is 'murky'.. ;)

    https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/05/24/ukrainian-f-16-pilots-stand-ready-unknown-number-of-pilots-return/

    +others.
    Yes Ultra.
    Yes, Walt.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Can anyone beat that? Has anyone else had an unusual skin condition with a strange name that formed a simulacrum of the face of a barely remembered political figure on a particularly intimate part of their anatomy?

    Just a reminder, Leon.

    Your photo quota today is zero :wink:
    A cousin of mine who worked at Halford’s suffered a sporadic but sharp case of vitiligo where the unmistakeable image of Donald Dewer making a speech would appear on his buttocks, but only during the winter
    Halfords have a zero enforcement (or even) care policy on shoplifting. I don't think I have paid for a 10mm socket for about five years.
    Incredibly I'm off to Halfords (new wipers) right now. Apparently they will fit them for a nominal extra £5. Bet they won't. Too good to be true.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    edited May 27

    I think Labour have completely been allowed to set the narrative on this policy.

    They've said it's a vote for or against putting your child into the army and have branded it as such.

    I think for the first time I am prepared to say it, this policy will be perceived as badly as we thought.

    I thought you said it would be a plus for the Tories?
    I genuinely thought it would but my mind has been changed - and I am happy to say when it has. Is that okay with you?
    Oh, OK. It was a genuine question, as I thought you had had a different view.
    I think if the Tories had been able to set the narrative it may have gone over well but the truth is that Labour has succeeded in branding it as "send your child off to the army". And that's it.
    But.
    A policy thrown in from leftfield with absolutely no warning.
    And within 48 hours the Opposition have set the narrative?
    Without even any seeming Party line of a narrative of your own?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    Heathener said:

    Did the Tories not support detention without charge?

    I just can't support such a policy, innocent until proven guilty. Always.

    They opposed it at 90 days and 56 days.
    That's not opposed it full stop, is it?
    God, you're embarrassing. Being detained without charge has existed for many years, it gives the police/CPS time to gather evidence/make decisions.

    Blair wanted to increase pre charge detention from 14 days to 90 days, when that was defeated he tried to compromise at 56 days, which was defeated again.

    Blair had a massive strop saying anyone opposed to 90/56 days detention without charges was effectively helping terrorists.

    I've clearly got on your nerves, it's funny to be called "embarrassing" by one of the most partisan posters here.
    I don’t think @TSE can be accused of being one of the most partisan posters. Considering he’s openly a Conservative he does a very good job of presenting threads from a wide range of perspectives.

    The only thing I don’t like is his sometimes descending into personal abuse, such as calling you ‘a bloody embarrassment’. It’s unbecoming and unnecessary for the site leader. Keep the gravitas TSE and you’re doing well. Thank you for oiling this machine through the febrile election campaign.
    He's a massive Cameron/Osborne fanboy, which is fine. I don't have a problem with that, they're much better than everything that has come since.

    Just find it funny to be called "embarrassing".
    You are very fortunate he is so polite
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    .

    Takeaways from Starmer's first campaign speech:
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 big on Englishness
    💷 there *is no money left*
    🪜 anything not in 'first steps' is low priority
    🎒 private school parents "work hard"
    🛥️ he wants to stop the boats
    ⚔️ not quite ruling out national service

    https://x.com/HugoGye/status/1795061748216615231

    I’m uncertain this is the best summary. Starmer was excoriating about the national service scheme. He talked about more teachers, more police and more NHS appointments. This is the BBC summary:

    “Here are they key points:

    He talked about his childhood in Oxted, Surrey, and his family's constant fear of not being able to pay the bills and falling into debt
    Sunak's newly-proposed national service scheme was described as "desperate" and compared to a "teenage Dad’s Army" (the scheme is for 18-year-olds and is explained, in full, here)
    The importance of economic, border and national security was emphasised - Starmer accused the Tories of not believing in those principles anymore
    In terms of policies, he repeated promises - if elected - to launch a new border security unit to crack down on small boat crossings and set up Great British Energy, a public sector energy company
    He also promised Labour would recruit 6,500 new teachers and 13,000 more police officers, and ensure 40,000 more NHS appointments a week
    On the Israel-Gaza war, he said he was "shocked" by the overnight attacks in Rafah and - if prime minister - he'd implore Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to "stop"”
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212

    Thread:

    Labour and the Tories have both said they can raise £6bn from cracking down on tax avoidance and evasion. How plausible is this?

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/1795034992134787330?

    "Dan Neidle
    @DanNeidle
    ·
    1h
    Most of the tax gap is small businesses receiving payment in cash and not filing properly (accidentally or deliberately). This is not a very politically convenient answer, but it is nevertheless the truth."

    As far as I can see this practice is absolutely rife amongst small traders like builders and plumbers.
    The going rates for academic, 1-1 tuition, start at about £35 per hour and go up.

    All the university students are in on it - teaching GCSE very often.

    A huge number of state school teachers supplement their income doing this.

    As far as I can see, from the consumption side, nearly no one is paying tax on any of it.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,243

    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    I must be young at heart since it seems to be my generation which thinks this is an excellent idea (having skipped it ourselves) but I think that the last thing our young require is another delay in starting out on life. We already have people staying at school until they are 18 and then the majority going on to University or college for another 3-4 years, more in some cases. So, right now, you are looking for your first job in your early 20s. Are we really going to make it mid 20s and what are the pension implications of that?

    Its a silly idea. Much better to spend the money giving training so that our young can start to fill our skills gaps ASAP. National service or apprenticeships? It's a no brainer for every sort of reason.

    I must sadly agree. One of the really sad things we have done over the past decades is to blur the line between children and adults, with the inevitable infantilized adults. Education is a process designed to enable children to become independent when they achieve adulthood, so that they can get a job, form relationships, have children of their own, buy a house, and raise them. By pushing each stage back into their 20s and 30s we are disabling them.

    Your apprenticeships idea is a good one and would help cure this problem.

    We already have an Apprenticeship Tax raising ~£3bn a year, running at 0.5% of annual pay bill for employers paying more than £3m a year in payroll.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/pay-apprenticeship-levy
    When I was at UCL in the 90s, we had a good half dozen in the class of mature students. People who failed to go to university, failed the first degree etc.

    They all did very well, IIRC.

    In my last year, we had a hilarious chap from the oil rigs. He'd made a pile and decided to take three years out to get a degree. Mad Max biker - was parking his Harley next to Dean Vernon Wormer's official car within about ten minutes of arriving (he just chatted to security and they were his best mates) - all the piercings and tattoos.

    His plan was to do the degree, then back to the rigs and do a Masters/PhD while working. He figured that between being a roughneck and having all the academics he would zoom up the ladder.
    I’m at UCL now and always look forward to having mature students on our Master’s programme, although I would also caution that doing a PhD part-time while working is tough.
    Mrs S. has examined many a PhD thesis in her time. If ever a thankless, underpaid, mind-numbing job cried out for the merciful intercession of AI, this is it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Can anyone beat that? Has anyone else had an unusual skin condition with a strange name that formed a simulacrum of the face of a barely remembered political figure on a particularly intimate part of their anatomy?

    Just a reminder, Leon.

    Your photo quota today is zero :wink:
    A cousin of mine who worked at Halford’s suffered a sporadic but sharp case of vitiligo where the unmistakeable image of Donald Dewer making a speech would appear on his buttocks, but only during the winter
    Halfords have a zero enforcement (or even) care policy on shoplifting. I don't think I have paid for a 10mm socket for about five years.
    Incredibly I'm off to Halfords (new wipers) right now. Apparently they will fit them for a nominal extra £5. Bet they won't. Too good to be true.
    A friend of mine bought a bike from Halfords. I spent a day taking it apart and putting everything back in the right place.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Can anyone beat that? Has anyone else had an unusual skin condition with a strange name that formed a simulacrum of the face of a barely remembered political figure on a particularly intimate part of their anatomy?

    Just a reminder, Leon.

    Your photo quota today is zero :wink:
    A cousin of mine who worked at Halford’s suffered a sporadic but sharp case of vitiligo where the unmistakeable image of Donald Dewer making a speech would appear on his buttocks, but only during the winter
    Halfords have a zero enforcement (or even) care policy on shoplifting. I don't think I have paid for a 10mm socket for about five years.
    Incredibly I'm off to Halfords (new wipers) right now. Apparently they will fit them for a nominal extra £5. Bet they won't. Too good to be true.
    A friend of mine bought a bike from Halfords. I spent a day taking it apart and putting everything back in the right place.
    The handlebars of the road bike I bought were not quite central. Easy enough to 'fix'. I don't have a torque wrench to do it properly... ;)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    De gustibus, etc.

    I can't honestly think of any politician I'd ever describe as sexy.
    I'm sure there are a few guilty fancies out there. For example I think Gillian Keegan has a glint in her eye, and if I were inclined that way, young Joseph Vissarionovich a total hunk.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    dixiedean said:

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246/photo/1

    CCHQ appears to have accidentally emailed around its internal criticisms of the early campaign to activists across the country

    The party is completely dysfunctional. This is so very basic.

    Conservative ministers and MPs have failed to “get behind” campaigning and have refused to knock on doors, a leaked memo from Tory headquarters sent days into the general election campaign has revealed...

    The “key theme” identified in the document was that candidates had failed to “get behind” the campaign, with some on holiday or refusing to knock on doors.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/30276d4d-1dc0-4bb4-887b-013decfeb7b5

    So, panel... Accidentally or accidentally-on-purpose?
    The GE seems to have come as a complete surprise to the people who called it.
    But not to the Opposition.
    It definitely suggests that they were going for the Autumn but something
    changed Rishi’s mind.

    I am not sure we’ll find out what that something is, definitively, before the GE but it will come out in the fullness of time.
    The secret service has notified him about how Putin is going to escalate the war in July/August and Sunak doesn't want to deal with it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    De gustibus, etc.

    I can't honestly think of any politician I'd ever describe as sexy.
    I have to say there are quite a few rather striking american politicians. Many are also bonkers unfortunately.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    dixiedean said:

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246/photo/1

    CCHQ appears to have accidentally emailed around its internal criticisms of the early campaign to activists across the country

    The party is completely dysfunctional. This is so very basic.

    Conservative ministers and MPs have failed to “get behind” campaigning and have refused to knock on doors, a leaked memo from Tory headquarters sent days into the general election campaign has revealed...

    The “key theme” identified in the document was that candidates had failed to “get behind” the campaign, with some on holiday or refusing to knock on doors.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/30276d4d-1dc0-4bb4-887b-013decfeb7b5

    So, panel... Accidentally or accidentally-on-purpose?
    The GE seems to have come as a complete surprise to the people who called it.
    But not to the Opposition.
    My view is that Labour thought it was going to be called for May and so planned for that.

    The Tories assumed it would be in October but Sunak seems to have always planned May or July but doesn't seem to have told his own party.

    At this point it is pointless trying to understand why Sunak does things. He doesn't make logical decisions, he just does things.
    Like Boris.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    .

    Takeaways from Starmer's first campaign speech:
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 big on Englishness
    💷 there *is no money left*
    🪜 anything not in 'first steps' is low priority
    🎒 private school parents "work hard"
    🛥️ he wants to stop the boats
    ⚔️ not quite ruling out national service

    https://x.com/HugoGye/status/1795061748216615231

    I’m uncertain this is the best summary. Starmer was excoriating about the national service scheme. He talked about more teachers, more police and more NHS appointments. This is the BBC summary:

    “Here are they key points:

    He talked about his childhood in Oxted, Surrey, and his family's constant fear of not being able to pay the bills and falling into debt
    Sunak's newly-proposed national service scheme was described as "desperate" and compared to a "teenage Dad’s Army" (the scheme is for 18-year-olds and is explained, in full, here)
    The importance of economic, border and national security was emphasised - Starmer accused the Tories of not believing in those principles anymore
    In terms of policies, he repeated promises - if elected - to launch a new border security unit to crack down on small boat crossings and set up Great British Energy, a public sector energy company
    He also promised Labour would recruit 6,500 new teachers and 13,000 more police officers, and ensure 40,000 more NHS appointments a week
    On the Israel-Gaza war, he said he was "shocked" by the overnight attacks in Rafah and - if prime minister - he'd implore Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to "stop"”
    ...the humanitarian aid to Gazan children?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    De gustibus, etc.

    I can't honestly think of any politician I'd ever describe as sexy.
    I'm sure there are a few guilty fancies out there. For example I think Gillian Keegan has a glint in her eye, and if I were inclined that way, young Joseph Vissarionovich a total hunk.
    That hair. Those kind eyes.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    dixiedean said:

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246/photo/1

    CCHQ appears to have accidentally emailed around its internal criticisms of the early campaign to activists across the country

    The party is completely dysfunctional. This is so very basic.

    Conservative ministers and MPs have failed to “get behind” campaigning and have refused to knock on doors, a leaked memo from Tory headquarters sent days into the general election campaign has revealed...

    The “key theme” identified in the document was that candidates had failed to “get behind” the campaign, with some on holiday or refusing to knock on doors.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/30276d4d-1dc0-4bb4-887b-013decfeb7b5

    So, panel... Accidentally or accidentally-on-purpose?
    The GE seems to have come as a complete surprise to the people who called it.
    But not to the Opposition.
    It definitely suggests that they were going for the Autumn but something
    changed Rishi’s mind.

    I am not sure we’ll find out what that something is, definitively, before the GE but it will come out in the fullness of time.
    The start of autumn term in California?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246/photo/1

    CCHQ appears to have accidentally emailed around its internal criticisms of the early campaign to activists across the country

    The party is completely dysfunctional. This is so very basic.

    Sunak really was never up to the job, was he. Such a shame we have a whole political system dominated by these inadequates
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    De gustibus, etc.

    I can't honestly think of any politician I'd ever describe as sexy.
    Thatcher famously made many Tory males hot under the collar in the 80s.
  • .
    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Can anyone beat that? Has anyone else had an unusual skin condition with a strange name that formed a simulacrum of the face of a barely remembered political figure on a particularly intimate part of their anatomy?

    Just a reminder, Leon.

    Your photo quota today is zero :wink:
    A cousin of mine who worked at Halford’s suffered a sporadic but sharp case of vitiligo where the unmistakeable image of Donald Dewer making a speech would appear on his buttocks, but only during the winter
    Halfords have a zero enforcement (or even) care policy on shoplifting. I don't think I have paid for a 10mm socket for about five years.
    Incredibly I'm off to Halfords (new wipers) right now. Apparently they will fit them for a nominal extra £5. Bet they won't. Too good to be true.
    A friend of mine bought a bike from Halfords. I spent a day taking it apart and putting everything back in the right place.
    A lad at work bought a Boardman off them when we had the Cycle To Work Scheme. The forks were on backwards, and the rear disc brake had no pads in. It had passed their inspection as well. I wouldn't have them near my bike or car.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    edited May 27
    kinabalu said:

    I don't think people here fully grasp what a moment this is, coming up on 4th July. Absent an almighty shock we are going to see something which although not quite Haley’s comet is nevertheless a vanishingly rare event - a change of governing party at Westminster. In my entire adult life, as I have ripened from callow teen to the sweet old fruit I am today, 45 winters and 44 summers, I've experienced this only twice. So I don't go with all this 'yawn' and 'no enthusiasm' talk. I'm excited.

    Unless the Tories really do collapse into nothinginess it will in one sense be a humdrum change of government event. But since we will have had governments of 18 years, 13 years, then 14 years, it is actually a lot more notable than it would seem at first glance.

    I cannot imagine the excitement people had in previous generations with one term governments.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    edited May 27
    Sexy Pols? ... probably best left but people know my feelings about Barry Gardiner. Sadly not featuring much these days.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    edited May 27

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Dura_Ace said:

    In other F-16 news, Ukrainian Crew Training Plan C looks like it's finally coming together. Plan A was a multi-national centre in Romania. Nobody would pay for it. Plan B was Denmark which has gone very murky and produced no crew. Plan C is apparently Arizona ANG.

    https://www.airandspaceforces.com/first-ukrainian-pilots-graduate-us-f-16-training/

    End of the year, apparently. They can do the flyover at DJT's inauguration before they head east.

    There are various recent reports.
    The handful of new pilots trained here are starting on fast jets in France.
    https://english.nv.ua/nation/10-young-pilots-undergo-training-in-france-to-master-f-16-50413056.html

    Presumably a training capability more independent of the US will develop over time.
    Part and parcel of the increase in European defence spending.
    Don't expect @Dura_Ace to have accurate intel on these matters. I'm also surprised that someone who claims to have been involved in the military is surprised that the number of combatants produced for an active conflict is 'murky'.. ;)

    https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/05/24/ukrainian-f-16-pilots-stand-ready-unknown-number-of-pilots-return/

    +others.
    The F-16 training has taken longer than initially estimated. Help for Ukraine is still slow, late and insufficient.

    There was a report the other day that Russia was producing 3x as many 152mm shells as the US and Europe was producing 155mm shells.

    The West was supposed to be able to use its economic strength to easily produce more military equipment and ammunition than Russia. This has ended up being an embarrassing failure.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    De gustibus, etc.

    I can't honestly think of any politician I'd ever describe as sexy.
    I'm sure there are a few guilty fancies out there. For example I think Gillian Keegan has a glint in her eye, and if I were inclined that way, young Joseph Vissarionovich a total hunk.
    Dehenna?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    Eabhal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    megasaur said:

    Good morning everyone. That’s a greeting, not a wish that Conservative supporters have to stop feeling pessimistic.

    Mrs Cole has just asked me a question to which I don’t know the answer…… one of many over the years, of course, but this time people here may be able to help.
    Does this National Service thing apply to both sexes, or just males. If so, do girls get the military option? (We know there are women in the Armed Services.)

    It really can't be boys only

    There was a stunning interview on r4 pick of the week last night. Female us f16 fighter pilot, just qualified on 9/11 but still in training squadron so no live weapons, sent up with instructions to collide with flight 93 to prevent it reaching Washington [spoiler: it had actually crashed by the time she took off,,but she didn't know that].
    F-16 always flies with at least 100 rounds in the gun to maintain CoG limits so "Lucky" Penney wasn't totally unarmed as the legend now has it. However, that might not have been enough to bring down UA93 (M61 will do 100 rounds in one second) so a Sonderkommando Elbe style ramming attack was always a possibility. Aim for the cockpit and bang out at the last second. Home for tea and medals.
    What is a CoG limit and why must it be maintained?
    The Centre of Gravity of the aircraft. The FCS (flight control system) has a range of acceptable CoGs aft-to-forward that it can manage. If the CoG is outside limits then the behaviour of the FCS and hence the aircraft in pitch axis is probably going to be problematic. Putting 100 rounds in the gun of the F-16 is enough to move the CoG forward into those limits.

    You can't take the gun out of the Typhoon for the same reason though the RAF wanted to. They thought about putting a ballast in the gun bay instead but that worked out more expensive than just leaving the gun in.
    So if an F16 uses all its ammunition up, it falls out of the sky?
    Pilot has to do his job then
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    De gustibus, etc.

    I can't honestly think of any politician I'd ever describe as sexy.
    Thatcher famously made many Tory males hot under the collar in the 80s.
    She still does. The 20 something Tories out there, perhaps by virtue of being rather unique, often seem more passionate and fired up about the Thatcher years than people who lived it, even on the Tory side.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Can anyone beat that? Has anyone else had an unusual skin condition with a strange name that formed a simulacrum of the face of a barely remembered political figure on a particularly intimate part of their anatomy?

    Just a reminder, Leon.

    Your photo quota today is zero :wink:
    A cousin of mine who worked at Halford’s suffered a sporadic but sharp case of vitiligo where the unmistakeable image of Donald Dewer making a speech would appear on his buttocks, but only during the winter
    Halfords have a zero enforcement (or even) care policy on shoplifting. I don't think I have paid for a 10mm socket for about five years.
    Incredibly I'm off to Halfords (new wipers) right now. Apparently they will fit them for a nominal extra £5. Bet they won't. Too good to be true.
    A friend of mine bought a bike from Halfords. I spent a day taking it apart and putting everything back in the right place.
    The cheaper the bike is, the harder it is to dial in and Halfords staff have not the time nor ability to do it 100% correctly.

    They don't ever face bottom bracket shells or caliper mounts and just assume that they will be good enough from the factory.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    megasaur said:

    Good morning everyone. That’s a greeting, not a wish that Conservative supporters have to stop feeling pessimistic.

    Mrs Cole has just asked me a question to which I don’t know the answer…… one of many over the years, of course, but this time people here may be able to help.
    Does this National Service thing apply to both sexes, or just males. If so, do girls get the military option? (We know there are women in the Armed Services.)

    It really can't be boys only

    There was a stunning interview on r4 pick of the week last night. Female us f16 fighter pilot, just qualified on 9/11 but still in training squadron so no live weapons, sent up with instructions to collide with flight 93 to prevent it reaching Washington [spoiler: it had actually crashed by the time she took off,,but she didn't know that].
    F-16 always flies with at least 100 rounds in the gun to maintain CoG limits so "Lucky" Penney wasn't totally unarmed as the legend now has it. However, that might not have been enough to bring down UA93 (M61 will do 100 rounds in one second) so a Sonderkommando Elbe style ramming attack was always a possibility. Aim for the cockpit and bang out at the last second. Home for tea and medals.
    What is a CoG limit and why must it be maintained?
    The Centre of Gravity of the aircraft. The FCS (flight control system) has a range of acceptable CoGs aft-to-forward that it can manage. If the CoG is outside limits then the behaviour of the FCS and hence the aircraft in pitch axis is probably going to be problematic. Putting 100 rounds in the gun of the F-16 is enough to move the CoG forward into those limits.

    You can't take the gun out of the Typhoon for the same reason though the RAF wanted to. They thought about putting a ballast in the gun bay instead but that worked out more expensive than just leaving the gun in.
    So if an F16 uses all its ammunition up, it falls out of the sky?
    Pilot has to do his job then
    I love that you think even fighter pilots are slackers haha
  • When did you work in the Bank of England? My research says you were only there briefly as a graduate hire….
    @RachelReevesMP
    Certainly no true dates your Wikipedia page - all very very vague. Plagiarism again? Buffing a CV? And u have never run a business. Or come close to it.

    https://x.com/emilysheffield/status/1795043203101388817

    Rachel Reeves worked for the Bank of England for six years, which is the same as Emily Sheffield's brother-in-law's term as Prime Minister.

    ROFL
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    eristdoof said:

    dixiedean said:

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246/photo/1

    CCHQ appears to have accidentally emailed around its internal criticisms of the early campaign to activists across the country

    The party is completely dysfunctional. This is so very basic.

    Conservative ministers and MPs have failed to “get behind” campaigning and have refused to knock on doors, a leaked memo from Tory headquarters sent days into the general election campaign has revealed...

    The “key theme” identified in the document was that candidates had failed to “get behind” the campaign, with some on holiday or refusing to knock on doors.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/30276d4d-1dc0-4bb4-887b-013decfeb7b5

    So, panel... Accidentally or accidentally-on-purpose?
    The GE seems to have come as a complete surprise to the people who called it.
    But not to the Opposition.
    It definitely suggests that they were going for the Autumn but something
    changed Rishi’s mind.

    I am not sure we’ll find out what that something is, definitively, before the GE but it will come out in the fullness of time.
    The secret service has notified him about how Putin is going to escalate the war in July/August and Sunak doesn't want to deal with it.
    I think it was the inflation figures not being quite as good as hoped meaning a rate cut less likely and tax cuts in the Autumn more difficult. This was as good as it gets.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    viewcode said:

    FPT

    DavidL said:

    I must be young at heart since it seems to be my generation which thinks this is an excellent idea (having skipped it ourselves) but I think that the last thing our young require is another delay in starting out on life. We already have people staying at school until they are 18 and then the majority going on to University or college for another 3-4 years, more in some cases. So, right now, you are looking for your first job in your early 20s. Are we really going to make it mid 20s and what are the pension implications of that?

    Its a silly idea. Much better to spend the money giving training so that our young can start to fill our skills gaps ASAP. National service or apprenticeships? It's a no brainer for every sort of reason.

    I must sadly agree. One of the really sad things we have done over the past decades is to blur the line between children and adults, with the inevitable infantilized adults. Education is a process designed to enable children to become independent when they achieve adulthood, so that they can get a job, form relationships, have children of their own, buy a house, and raise them. By pushing each stage back into their 20s and 30s we are disabling them.

    Your apprenticeships idea is a good one and would help cure this problem.

    You do talk loads of sense Viewcode.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    De gustibus, etc.

    I can't honestly think of any politician I'd ever describe as sexy.
    I'm sure there are a few guilty fancies out there. For example I think Gillian Keegan has a glint in her eye, and if I were inclined that way, young Joseph Vissarionovich a total hunk.
    That hair. Those kind eyes.

    Thanks, I didn't want to use up my pic quota!
    You could imagine JVS scoffing avocado toast and Americanos down Brixton way as he expounded on ownership of the means of production.
  • DougSeal said:

    I think it was the inflation figures not being quite as good as hoped meaning a rate cut less likely and tax cuts in the Autumn more difficult. This was as good as it gets.

    Again, you assume there's logic. I think he woke up annoyed and called it.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    De gustibus, etc.

    I can't honestly think of any politician I'd ever describe as sexy.
    I'm sure there are a few guilty fancies out there. For example I think Gillian Keegan has a glint in her eye, and if I were inclined that way, young Joseph Vissarionovich a total hunk.
    Yikes at GK (no ta), but The Young Man Of Steel (Abs) is worth using my daily pic quota for.


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Thread:

    Labour and the Tories have both said they can raise £6bn from cracking down on tax avoidance and evasion. How plausible is this?

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/1795034992134787330?

    Most of the tax gap is small businesses receiving payment in cash and not filing properly (accidentally or deliberately). This is not a very politically convenient answer, but it is nevertheless the truth.

    Simples: we just need to BAN CASH!
    'Accidentally or deliberately'.

    So careful.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    kinabalu said:

    I don't think people here fully grasp what a moment this is, coming up on 4th July. Absent an almighty shock we are going to see something which although not quite Haley’s comet is nevertheless a vanishingly rare event - a change of governing party at Westminster. In my entire adult life, as I have ripened from callow teen to the sweet old fruit I am today, 45 winters and 44 summers, I've experienced this only twice. So I don't go with all this 'yawn' and 'no enthusiasm' talk. I'm excited.

    Yep. I had three changes of government before the age of 12. And another 2 years before I was born.
    Only two since.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Can anyone beat that? Has anyone else had an unusual skin condition with a strange name that formed a simulacrum of the face of a barely remembered political figure on a particularly intimate part of their anatomy?

    Just a reminder, Leon.

    Your photo quota today is zero :wink:
    A cousin of mine who worked at Halford’s suffered a sporadic but sharp case of vitiligo where the unmistakeable image of Donald Dewer making a speech would appear on his buttocks, but only during the winter
    Halfords have a zero enforcement (or even) care policy on shoplifting. I don't think I have paid for a 10mm socket for about five years.
    Incredibly I'm off to Halfords (new wipers) right now. Apparently they will fit them for a nominal extra £5. Bet they won't. Too good to be true.
    They do. I was going to fit a light bulb that was just impossible to get to. Decided to let them do it as I was sure I would break it. They had as much difficulty as I did, but it was then their problem. All went well. Worth it.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782
    Eabhal said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Can anyone beat that? Has anyone else had an unusual skin condition with a strange name that formed a simulacrum of the face of a barely remembered political figure on a particularly intimate part of their anatomy?

    Just a reminder, Leon.

    Your photo quota today is zero :wink:
    A cousin of mine who worked at Halford’s suffered a sporadic but sharp case of vitiligo where the unmistakeable image of Donald Dewer making a speech would appear on his buttocks, but only during the winter
    Halfords have a zero enforcement (or even) care policy on shoplifting. I don't think I have paid for a 10mm socket for about five years.
    Incredibly I'm off to Halfords (new wipers) right now. Apparently they will fit them for a nominal extra £5. Bet they won't. Too good to be true.
    A friend of mine bought a bike from Halfords. I spent a day taking it apart and putting everything back in the right place.
    Mind boggles, but I have heard similar.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    When did you work in the Bank of England? My research says you were only there briefly as a graduate hire….
    @RachelReevesMP
    Certainly no true dates your Wikipedia page - all very very vague. Plagiarism again? Buffing a CV? And u have never run a business. Or come close to it.

    https://x.com/emilysheffield/status/1795043203101388817

    Rachel Reeves worked for the Bank of England for six years, which is the same as Emily Sheffield's brother-in-law's term as Prime Minister.

    ROFL

    And it is there in her Wikipedia page!
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    I think Labour have completely been allowed to set the narrative on this policy.

    They've said it's a vote for or against putting your child into the army and have branded it as such.

    I think for the first time I am prepared to say it, this policy will be perceived as badly as we thought.

    To be fair to the Tories, no one could ever have foreseen that if you unveil a policy in an election campaign then it will instantly be spun as an attack on family members, because that has definitely never happened before and particularly not in recent elections.

    I'm starting to wonder whether the Dementia Tax should have been applied to whatever halfwit is running the Conservative campaign.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Ghedebrav said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    De gustibus, etc.

    I can't honestly think of any politician I'd ever describe as sexy.
    I'm sure there are a few guilty fancies out there. For example I think Gillian Keegan has a glint in her eye, and if I were inclined that way, young Joseph Vissarionovich a total hunk.
    Yikes at GK (no ta), but The Young Man Of Steel (Abs) is worth using my daily pic quota for.


    Lol! Pwhoaarr..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    edited May 27

    I think Labour have completely been allowed to set the narrative on this policy.

    They've said it's a vote for or against putting your child into the army and have branded it as such.

    I think for the first time I am prepared to say it, this policy will be perceived as badly as we thought.

    To be fair to the Tories, no one could ever have foreseen that if you unveil a policy in an election campaign then it will instantly be spun as an attack on family members, because that has definitely never happened before and particularly not in recent elections.

    I'm starting to wonder whether the Dementia Tax should have been applied to whatever halfwit is running the Conservative campaign.
    At least the dementia tax was an attempt to come up with a solution to something most people accept to be a major problem, on top of being proposed by someone who assumed they were galloping towards a win.

    I don't think most people recognise a major problem with the armed forces and community volunteering, even if it is argued they should do.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Dura_Ace said:

    In other F-16 news, Ukrainian Crew Training Plan C looks like it's finally coming together. Plan A was a multi-national centre in Romania. Nobody would pay for it. Plan B was Denmark which has gone very murky and produced no crew. Plan C is apparently Arizona ANG.

    https://www.airandspaceforces.com/first-ukrainian-pilots-graduate-us-f-16-training/

    End of the year, apparently. They can do the flyover at DJT's inauguration before they head east.

    There are various recent reports.
    The handful of new pilots trained here are starting on fast jets in France.
    https://english.nv.ua/nation/10-young-pilots-undergo-training-in-france-to-master-f-16-50413056.html

    Presumably a training capability more independent of the US will develop over time.
    Part and parcel of the increase in European defence spending.
    Don't expect @Dura_Ace to have accurate intel on these matters. I'm also surprised that someone who claims to have been involved in the military is surprised that the number of combatants produced for an active conflict is 'murky'.. ;)

    https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/05/24/ukrainian-f-16-pilots-stand-ready-unknown-number-of-pilots-return/

    +others.
    The F-16 training has taken longer than initially estimated. Help for Ukraine is still slow, late and insufficient.

    There was a report the other day that Russia was producing 3x as many 152mm shells as the US and Europe was producing 155mm shells.

    The West was supposed to be able to use its economic strength to easily produce more military equipment and ammunition than Russia. This has ended up being an embarrassing failure.
    Yes and no. Yes, we are not going as fast as we should, or promised.

    On the other hand, Russia is turning increasingly large and significant parts of its economy to produce what will soon be hunks of scrap metal in Ukraine, and begging and borrowing from those titans of military production, Iran and North Korea, whilst the 'west' have not even finished buffing their nails.

    When the war ends - even with a Russian 'victory' - their economy will be utterly in the shitter (and it's already bad); especially if the sanctions remain.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    megasaur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    megasaur said:

    Good morning everyone. That’s a greeting, not a wish that Conservative supporters have to stop feeling pessimistic.

    Mrs Cole has just asked me a question to which I don’t know the answer…… one of many over the years, of course, but this time people here may be able to help.
    Does this National Service thing apply to both sexes, or just males. If so, do girls get the military option? (We know there are women in the Armed Services.)

    It really can't be boys only

    There was a stunning interview on r4 pick of the week last night. Female us f16 fighter pilot, just qualified on 9/11 but still in training squadron so no live weapons, sent up with instructions to collide with flight 93 to prevent it reaching Washington [spoiler: it had actually crashed by the time she took off,,but she didn't know that].
    F-16 always flies with at least 100 rounds in the gun to maintain CoG limits so "Lucky" Penney wasn't totally unarmed as the legend now has it. However, that might not have been enough to bring down UA93 (M61 will do 100 rounds in one second) so a Sonderkommando Elbe style ramming attack was always a possibility. Aim for the cockpit and bang out at the last second. Home for tea and medals.
    It says here you can limit bursts to 2 rounds. So with an unarmed opponent you can go round 50 times trying to shoot him through the windscreen. Unnerving even if you miss.
    Be out of fuel and dizzy with 50 circles though
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    DougSeal said:

    eristdoof said:

    dixiedean said:

    https://x.com/jamesrbuk/status/1795059989305823246/photo/1

    CCHQ appears to have accidentally emailed around its internal criticisms of the early campaign to activists across the country

    The party is completely dysfunctional. This is so very basic.

    Conservative ministers and MPs have failed to “get behind” campaigning and have refused to knock on doors, a leaked memo from Tory headquarters sent days into the general election campaign has revealed...

    The “key theme” identified in the document was that candidates had failed to “get behind” the campaign, with some on holiday or refusing to knock on doors.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/30276d4d-1dc0-4bb4-887b-013decfeb7b5

    So, panel... Accidentally or accidentally-on-purpose?
    The GE seems to have come as a complete surprise to the people who called it.
    But not to the Opposition.
    It definitely suggests that they were going for the Autumn but something
    changed Rishi’s mind.

    I am not sure we’ll find out what that something is, definitively, before the GE but it will come out in the fullness of time.
    The secret service has notified him about how Putin is going to escalate the war in July/August and Sunak doesn't want to deal with it.
    I think it was the inflation figures not being quite as good as hoped meaning a rate cut less likely and tax cuts in the Autumn more difficult. This was as good as it gets.
    I hope you are right and I am wrong.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Ghedebrav said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    De gustibus, etc.

    I can't honestly think of any politician I'd ever describe as sexy.
    I'm sure there are a few guilty fancies out there. For example I think Gillian Keegan has a glint in her eye, and if I were inclined that way, young Joseph Vissarionovich a total hunk.
    Yikes at GK (no ta), but The Young Man Of Steel (Abs) is worth using my daily pic quota for.


    Lol! Pwhoaarr..
    Is that young Stalin or Lionel Messi?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    Leon said:

    So that’s TWO people just on PB - or known to PB - who’ve had slightly embarrassing skin problems with peculiar names where the symptomology includes bizarrely accurate images of relatively forgotten political figures like Sir Francis Pym (later The Lord Pym of Sandy in Bedfordshire) of appearing to form on their genitals or related areas so it’s obviously a lot more common than people realise and we need to talk about it so sufferers don’t feel cruelly stigmatised as they did in the past

    Sounds more like TWO mental cases on PB to me.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    Seeing as @Casino_Royale has openly admitted that he will be campaigning for the Conservative Party his posts are effectively @HYUFD style party political broadcasts

    I know it's unwelcome to you to have another point of view intrude into your happy echo chamber but you're going to have to put up with it for the next 6 weeks, I'm afraid.

    It's called democracy.
    Is it actually your point of view though or is it actually the point of view of the party which seems to change at the drop of a hat
    I always share on here my point of view.
    I look forward to you criticising aspects of the Tory manifesto that you disagree with
    Labour is now where our focus should be - look at the polls.

    How about you look forward to me pointing out that SKS is far from the best thing since sliced bread and many of the policies he is proposing will exacerbate the problems in this country, not solve them?
    I actually agree with you there, from a political strategy perspective. That's why, even if a net neutral or slight positive, the National Service thing was silly.

    The Ming vase strategy requires Labour to get through 6 weeks of as little media coverage as possible. That will be easy if we get more National Service type policies from Sunak.
    It's about denying any oxygen to Reform and rallying the base; it also shifts the debate to defence and security - and away from cost of living where Labour would like it.

    SKS has responded by basically taking yesterday off to decide how to respond, so it has disrupted their grid, and he's trying to make a speech about security atm, but it hasn't got much beyond his first job "clearing stones for farmers" so far, which did make me chuckle.
    Very sensible of him.

    I hope he takes a similar approach to being PM. Working 20 hour days, and trying to respond immediately to every shift in the political wind, exhausts PMs, and is probably part of the reason they make such poor decisions from time to time.

    I don't hold out any great hopes for his administration, but basic competence would be an improvement on what we've had for most of the last decade.
    Exactly, your projections are based entirely on the frustrations of the existing administration.

    Which is why absolutely no-one wants to hear any criticism whatever of SKS or his prospective new Labour administration.

    It would destroy that.
    The rather breathless praise of SKS from some quarters is an interesting one. From a purely political game, he has played a very good one (though has undeniably benefitted from the Tories imploding). I do think he gets a bit more praise than is perhaps merited: but I do think some of this comes from the fact that to many of us he is the alternative to what we see as a very bad, clapped out, tired and desperate government - so of course he comes out well in that comparison.

    It will be very interesting to see how quickly that perception shifts after the GE.
    Who praises Starmer breathlessly? I am not picking up on this. Even positive comments about Starmer tend to heavy qualification: "doesn't offer any hope", "underestimated", "better than Sunak" etc
    'Sexy' Sir Keir has appeared from nowhere this morning and has a rather breathless quality.
    De gustibus, etc.

    I can't honestly think of any politician I'd ever describe as sexy.
    Thatcher famously made many Tory males hot under the collar in the 80s.
    It seemed no less bizarre at the time.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Con Majority now 40/1 (forty/one) with PP.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Now finally is the time for a ceasefire in Gaza, or at least feeble and strangely homogenous calls for one.

    https://x.com/bencsmoke/status/1795065499719442843
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    eristdoof said:

    The secret service has notified him about how Putin is going to escalate the war in July/August and Sunak doesn't want to deal with it.

    I think it is quite plausible that Sunak has taken heed of the warnings about the risk of a UK general election being adjacent to the US Presidential election. It would be all too easy for the UK campaign to get caught up in the drama and outside interference that seems almost guaranteed for the election in November. It wouldn't necessarily be Putin's war in Ukraine, there are lots of other possible provocations.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,863
    megasaur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    megasaur said:

    Good morning everyone. That’s a greeting, not a wish that Conservative supporters have to stop feeling pessimistic.

    Mrs Cole has just asked me a question to which I don’t know the answer…… one of many over the years, of course, but this time people here may be able to help.
    Does this National Service thing apply to both sexes, or just males. If so, do girls get the military option? (We know there are women in the Armed Services.)

    It really can't be boys only

    There was a stunning interview on r4 pick of the week last night. Female us f16 fighter pilot, just qualified on 9/11 but still in training squadron so no live weapons, sent up with instructions to collide with flight 93 to prevent it reaching Washington [spoiler: it had actually crashed by the time she took off,,but she didn't know that].
    F-16 always flies with at least 100 rounds in the gun to maintain CoG limits so "Lucky" Penney wasn't totally unarmed as the legend now has it. However, that might not have been enough to bring down UA93 (M61 will do 100 rounds in one second) so a Sonderkommando Elbe style ramming attack was always a possibility. Aim for the cockpit and bang out at the last second. Home for tea and medals.
    It says here you can limit bursts to 2 rounds. So with an unarmed opponent you can go round 50 times trying to shoot him through the windscreen. Unnerving even if you miss.
    It would hardly unnerve someone about to enter paradise as a martyr by flying into a big building.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Can anyone beat that? Has anyone else had an unusual skin condition with a strange name that formed a simulacrum of the face of a barely remembered political figure on a particularly intimate part of their anatomy?

    Just a reminder, Leon.

    Your photo quota today is zero :wink:
    A cousin of mine who worked at Halford’s suffered a sporadic but sharp case of vitiligo where the unmistakeable image of Donald Dewer making a speech would appear on his buttocks, but only during the winter
    Halfords have a zero enforcement (or even) care policy on shoplifting. I don't think I have paid for a 10mm socket for about five years.
    Incredibly I'm off to Halfords (new wipers) right now. Apparently they will fit them for a nominal extra £5. Bet they won't. Too good to be true.
    £1 a second , easy money if you get a mug who will pay it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Dura_Ace said:

    In other F-16 news, Ukrainian Crew Training Plan C looks like it's finally coming together. Plan A was a multi-national centre in Romania. Nobody would pay for it. Plan B was Denmark which has gone very murky and produced no crew. Plan C is apparently Arizona ANG.

    https://www.airandspaceforces.com/first-ukrainian-pilots-graduate-us-f-16-training/

    End of the year, apparently. They can do the flyover at DJT's inauguration before they head east.

    There are various recent reports.
    The handful of new pilots trained here are starting on fast jets in France.
    https://english.nv.ua/nation/10-young-pilots-undergo-training-in-france-to-master-f-16-50413056.html

    Presumably a training capability more independent of the US will develop over time.
    Part and parcel of the increase in European defence spending.
    Don't expect @Dura_Ace to have accurate intel on these matters. I'm also surprised that someone who claims to have been involved in the military is surprised that the number of combatants produced for an active conflict is 'murky'.. ;)

    https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2024/05/24/ukrainian-f-16-pilots-stand-ready-unknown-number-of-pilots-return/

    +others.
    The F-16 training has taken longer than initially estimated. Help for Ukraine is still slow, late and insufficient.

    There was a report the other day that Russia was producing 3x as many 152mm shells as the US and Europe was producing 155mm shells.

    The West was supposed to be able to use its economic strength to easily produce more military equipment and ammunition than Russia. This has ended up being an embarrassing failure.
    Yes and no. Yes, we are not going as fast as we should, or promised.

    On the other hand, Russia is turning increasingly large and significant parts of its economy to produce what will soon be hunks of scrap metal in Ukraine, and begging and borrowing from those titans of military production, Iran and North Korea, whilst the 'west' have not even finished buffing their nails.

    When the war ends - even with a Russian 'victory' - their economy will be utterly in the shitter (and it's already bad); especially if the sanctions remain.
    We're 27 months in. When is the West going to decide to do what is necessary to equip Ukraine for victory?
This discussion has been closed.